Chief justice temporarily blocks Title 42 end, indicates further action from court could come soon

Posted on December 20, 2022 by Gabe Ortiz

Chief Justice John Roberts on Monday temporarily halted the Biden administration’s planned lifting of the anti-asylum Title 42 order, granting a so-called emergency appeal from a slate of Republican attorneys general. “So-called emergency appeal,” because the appeals court panel that had last week denied the GOP request noted that the group of 19 attorneys general had waited too long to file their request.

The Biden administration had planned to lift the debunked public health order that’s used the pandemic as an excuse to quickly deport asylum-seekers in violation of their rights Tuesday evening, following a lower court order. Roberts instructed the administration to respond by this evening, indicating more action could be imminent. Legal expert Mark Joseph Stern noted that Roberts’ administrative stay “does not hint at the eventual outcome.”

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Republicans have simultaneously claimed that the Biden administration has an “open borders” policy while insisting that the Title 42 policy—which was implemented against the advice of public health experts by noted white supremacist Stephen Miller and Mike Pence at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020—must stay in place indefinitely. They have also insisted this public health order remain as they’ve consistently challenged other pandemic-related orders by the administration.

“The Biden administration, for its part, has insisted it is prepared to lift Title 42, saying the restoration of regular immigration procedures, such expedited deportations, will allow the U.S. to gradually reduce migrant arrivals and the high rate of repeat crossings recorded during the pandemic,” CBS News reported.

That last part is crucial: Title 42 in fact led to an increase in apprehensions, because desperate people blocked from their asylum rights and expelled have had no choice but to try again. It’s a failed policy, and its lifting would put our country back on the side of respecting U.S. and international asylum law. In a statement, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said that as required by Roberts’ order, “the Title 42 public health order will remain in effect at this time and individuals who attempt to enter the United States unlawfully will continue to be expelled to Mexico.”

“While this stage of the litigation proceeds, we will continue our preparations to manage the border in a safe, orderly, and humane way when the Title 42 public health order lifts,” Mayorkas continued. “We urge Congress to use this time to provide the funds we have requested for border security and management and advance the comprehensive immigration measures President Biden proposed on his first day in office.”

House Republicans set to take power in the next Congress have indicated they’re serious about leading on immigration policy … by pushing a harebrained idea to impeach Mayorkas. Over what crimes? They haven’t figured that part out yet.

Vice President Kamala Harris similarly noted the need for lawmakers to lead on comprehensive immigration measures, and she called out for Republicans for failing to come to the table. They obsess on the issue of immigration only when it’s election season (my words, not hers). For example, a proposed framework that would have passed permanent relief for young immigrants in exchange for harsh border measures recently failed, derailed by Republicans’ “border first” excuses even though there was border stuff in there.

"I think that there is so much that needs to happen to address the issue," the vice president told NPR. "And sadly, what we have seen in particular, I am sad to say, from Republicans in Congress is an unwillingness to engage in any meaningful reform that could actually fix a lot of what we are witnessing.”

'Arbitrary and capricious': In victory for asylum-seekers, judge orders end to Miller pandemic order

Testimony confirms Title 42 was never about public health, it was about deporting asylum-seekers

Primary preview: Two of the nation’s biggest states are nominating candidates on Tuesday

Posted on August 23, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

Tuesday brings us our biggest election night until November as three states go to the polls to select their nominees for November, though only Florida is holding its first (and only) primary of the year.

Oklahoma voters already went to the polls on June 28, but the state is now hosting runoffs in primaries where no one took a majority of the vote. New York also held primaries that day for statewide races, the state Assembly, and local office, but because the courts redrew the maps for the U.S. House and state Senate, those nomination contests are only taking place now. The Empire State also will carry out special elections in the 19th and 23rd Congressional Districts.

Below you'll find our guide to all of the top contests, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

And of course, because this is a redistricting year, every state on the docket has a brand-new congressional map. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Florida, New York, and Oklahoma.

Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall, except for the special elections in New York’s 19th and 23rd, which are being conducted using the existing boundaries. (The regularly scheduled primaries for both seats are taking place simultaneously, but under the new map.) And if you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.

Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET when polls close in most of Florida, a state that is typically one of the fastest to count votes. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for the remaining primaries of the year.

Florida

Polls close at 7 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where most Floridians live. Polls close an hour later in the remainder of the state.

● FL-Gov (D) (51-48 Trump): Rep. Charlie Crist and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried are the chief Democratic contenders to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will enter the general election with a massive $135 million war chest.

Crist, who was elected governor in 2006 as a Republican and narrowly lost the 2014 general election to reclaim his prior post following his party switch, has outspent Fried and earned endorsements from several prominent labor groups. Fried, though, has used the last weeks of the campaign to highlight her opponent’s political past, including Crist's appointment of an anti-abortion judge to the state’s highest court. Almost every poll, including a Fried internal from early August, has shown Crist ahead, though an independent survey from the final days put Fried up 47-43.

● FL-01 (R) (65-33 Trump): Rep. Matt Gaetz, the far-right icon who remains under federal investigation for sex trafficking of a minor and other alleged offenses, faces a challenge from self-funder Mark Lombardo. The other Republican candidate in the running is Greg Merk, who took 9% in Gaetz’s uncompetitive 2020 primary. This constituency in the Pensacola area barely changed under the new map.

Lombardo has used his personal wealth to run an ad blitz highlighting Gaetz’s travails; one ad during the final week even speculated, without evidence, that Gaetz might be the government informant who prompted the FBI's raid of Mar-a-Lago. The congressman, though, has outspent Lombardo, whom he’s accused of being a “liberal.”

● FL-04 (R) (53-46 Trump): Three Republicans are campaigning for an open seat that includes part of Jacksonville and its western suburbs, though state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean very much looks like the frontrunner.

Bean, who has the backing of Sen. Marco Rubio and Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, posted a huge 59-16 lead over Navy veteran Erick Aguilar in an independent poll from early August, with underfunded rival Jon Chuba at 6%. That survey was taken weeks after Aguilar was thrown off the GOP fundraising platform WinRed for sending out deceptive appeals that appeared to be from better-known Republicans. Former state Sen. Tony Hill and businesswoman LaShonda Holloway are campaigning on the Democratic side, but both have struggled to bring in cash.

● FL-07 (R) (52-47 Trump): Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy announced her retirement months before Republicans transformed her suburban Orlando district from a 55-44 Biden constituency to one that supported Trump by 5 points, and eight Republicans are in the running to replace her. Four Democrats are also on the ballot, but none of them have raised much money.

The only sitting elected official in the race is state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, a far-right zealot who has a terrible relationship with his chamber's leadership. Sabatini has been on the receiving end of heavy spending from outside groups that fault him for voting against Gov. Ron DeSantis’ budget and for having once been a registered Democrat.

The other two candidates who have brought in serious sums are Army veteran Cory Mills and Navy veteran Brady Duke, who have each run ads implicitly threatening violence against liberals. The field also includes former DeBary City Commissioner Erika Benfield, who lost a competitive state House primary in 2020; former Orange County Commissioner Ted Edwards, who is campaigning as a moderate; former congressional staffer Rusty Roberts; and businessman Scott Sturgill, who lost the 2018 primary for the old 7th.

● FL-10 (D) (65-33 Biden): Ten Democrats are campaigning to succeed Rep. Val Demings, who is running for the Senate, in this safely blue Orlando constituency, including two former House members who jumped in just before filing closed in June.

One of them is former 9th District Rep. Alan Grayson, a bombastic frequent candidate who decided to end his little-noticed Senate bid to run here. The other relatively recent arrival is former 5th District Rep. Corrine Brown, whose launch came about a month after she accepted a deal with federal prosecutors that saw her plead guilty to tax fraud. Brown represented part of the Orlando area during her tenure from 1993 to 2017 even though her longtime Jacksonville base is located well to the north, but she’s raised little for her comeback campaign.

The top fundraiser by far is gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost, who has also benefited from about $1 million in support from the crypto-aligned Protect Our Future PAC. State Sen. Randolph Bracy, meanwhile, is the one current elected official in the race. The field also features pastor Terence Gray and five others. A last-minute poll from the Democratic firm Data for Progress found Frost leading Bracy 34-18, with Grayson at 14% and Brown at 6%; all others were in the low single digits and 15% were undecided.

● FL-11 (R) (55-44 Trump): Six-term Rep. Dan Webster faces Republican primary opposition from far-right activist Laura Loomer, a self-described "proud Islamophobe" who has been banned from numerous social media, rideshare, and payment services for spreading bigotry. One other little-known Republican is also competing here.

Webster only represents 35% of this new constituency in the western Orlando suburbs, which includes the gargantuan retirement community of The Villages. Still, he’s a far more familiar presence here than Loomer, who ran a high-profile but doomed 2020 bid against Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel in South Florida.

● FL-13 (R) (53-46 Trump): Five Republicans are competing to replace Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist in a St. Petersburg-based district the GOP aggressively gerrymandered. The winner will go up against former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, who is the one Democrat in the running.

The early GOP frontrunner was 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna, who sports endorsements from Trump and the Club for Growth. Her two main opponents are Amanda Makki, a former lobbyist who Luna beat in last cycle’s primary, and attorney Kevin Hayslett. Hayslett and his allies have run an aggressive campaign against Luna, an effort that includes a clip of her saying “I always agreed with President Obama's immigration policies.” Luna and the Club in turn have gone after Hayslett for criticizing Trump in 2016. A recent independent poll shows Luna leading Hayslett 37-34, with Makki at 14%.

● FL-15 (R & D) (51-48 Trump): Each party has five candidates running for a brand-new seat in the Tampa suburbs, created because Florida won a new seat in reapportionment. On the GOP side, the two elected officials in the running are state Sen. Kelli Stargel, who is an ardent social conservative, and state Rep. Jackie Toledo, who has prevailed on competitive turf.

Another notable contender is former Secretary of State Laurel Lee, who recently resigned to run and was previously elected as a local judge before DeSantis chose her as Florida's top elections administration official. Rounding out the field are retired Navy Capt. Mac McGovern and Demetrius Grimes, a fellow Navy veteran who lost the 2018 Democratic primary for the old 26th District in South Florida. Outside groups promoting both Stargel and Lee have also been spending plenty of money here, with Stargel’s allies launching a late attack on Lee for not performing a “forensic audit of the 2020 election.”

For the Democrats, the most familiar name is probably Alan Cohn, a former local TV anchor who lost the 2020 general election to Republican Scott Franklin in the previous version of the 15th. (Franklin is seeking the new 18th.) Comedian Eddie Geller, though, has brought in more money for his campaign, while the other three contenders have barely raised anything.

● FL-20 (D) (76-23 Biden): Freshman Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick faces a Democratic primary rematch against former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, whom she beat by all of five votes in last year's crowded special election. State Rep. Anika Omphroy is also in, but she hasn’t reported raising anything. About three-quarters of this constituency, which is located in the inland Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach areas, is the same turf that Cherfilus-McCormick and Holness competed for last year.

Cherfilus-McCormick and Holness have attacked one another’s ethics, though they haven’t differed much on policy. The new incumbent has decisively outraised her main opponent, and the SEIU has endorsed her this time after pulling for Holness in the special.

● FL-23 (D) (56-43 Biden): Rep. Ted Deutch is retiring from a Fort Lauderdale-based seat that's very similar to the 22nd District he currently serves, and six fellow Democrats are on the ballot to succeed him.

The frontrunner from the beginning has been Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz, a well-connected former state representative who later served in Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration as director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Moskowitz, who has raised considerably more money than the rest of the field, has endorsements from several unions, and he’s also received help from two crypto-aligned PACs. His main rival appears to be Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen, who has tried to tie Moskowitz to the ultra-conservative governor.

● FL-27 (D) (50-49 Trump): Republican mapmakers did what they could to insulate freshman GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar by shifting her Miami-area seat to the right, but two local Democratic elected officials are still betting she’s beatable. National Democrats, including the DCCC, have consolidated behind state Sen. Annette Taddeo, who dropped out of the governor's race in June to run here. Her main intraparty rival is Miami Commissioner Ken Russell, who abandoned his own long-shot Senate bid, while an underfunded activist named Angel Montalvo rounds out the field.

Oklahoma

Polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time.

● OK-Sen-B (R) (65-32 Trump): Rep. Markwayne Mullin lapped former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon 44-18 in the first round of the special election primary to succeed Sen. Jim Inhofe, whose resignation takes effect at the end of this Congress, and he looks well-positioned for the runoff. Mullin earned Trump’s endorsement in July, while Gov. Kevin Stitt backed him in the final week of the contest. Recent polls have given Mullin double-digit leads.

● OK-02 (R) (76-22 Trump): State Rep. Avery Frix edged out former state Sen. Josh Brecheen 15-14 in an enormous 14-person primary to replace Markwayne Mullin in Eastern Oklahoma's 2nd District, and neither man has a clear edge going into the second round. A PAC affiliated with the Club for Growth has spent heavily to promote Brecheen, who is a former Club fellow, while Frix has support from his own allies. Brecheen also has the backing of four defeated primary candidates who notched a combined 30%.

New York

Polls close at 9 PM ET. Below we lead with New York's two special elections, followed by Tuesday's primaries.

● NY-19 (special) (50-48 Biden): This swing seat in the Hudson Valley unexpectedly became vacant in the spring when Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado as lieutenant governor, and each party has nominated a different county executive to run here.

The Democrats are fielding Pat Ryan, an Army veteran who was elected to lead Ulster County after losing the 2018 primary to Delgado, while Republicans are going with Marc Molinaro of Dutchess County, who was the GOP's 2018 candidate for governor. Though Molinaro lost that race to then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a 60-36 landslide, he carried the 19th by a wide 53-42. (Ulster, by the way, makes up a quarter of the old 19th, while Dutchess comprises 17% of the district.)

Ryan and his allies have made abortion rights the centerpiece of their campaign; the GOP, in contrast, has focused on tying him to the Biden administration and portraying Ryan as weak on public safety issues. National Republicans have spent far more money here than their Democratic counterparts, and even a recent DCCC internal found Molinaro ahead 46-43.

The two rivals could end up serving together in a few months, as Ryan is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for the new 18th District while Molinaro faces no intraparty opposition in the redrawn 19th.

● NY-23 (special) (55-43 Trump): A special election is also taking place to succeed Republican Rep. Tom Reed, who resigned to join a lobbying firm a year after he was accused of sexual misconduct, but there it’s attracted little attention. The Republicans have picked Steuben County Party Chair Joe Sempolinski, who isn’t running for a full term anywhere. Democrats, meanwhile, have turned to Air Force veteran Max Della Pia, who is competing for a full term in the revamped 23rd District.

● NY-01 (R) (49.4-49.2 Biden): Three Republicans are facing off to succeed Rep. Lee Zeldin, who is the GOP’s nominee for governor, in an eastern Long Island constituency that moved a few points to the left under the new court-drawn congressional map. For months it looked like this would be an easy win for Nick LaLota, who serves as chief of staff of the Suffolk County Legislature and has the backing of the county’s Republican and conservative parties, but that’s no longer the case.

LaLota’s main adversary is cryptocurrency trader Michelle Bond, who has used her personal wealth to decisively outspend him. Bond has also gotten $1 million in outside help from several groups, including a PAC that just happens to be funded by her boyfriend, crypto notable Ryan Salame. LaLota has pushed back and run ads calling Bond as a “liberal D.C. lobbyist” who lives in a Beltway-area mansion. The third candidate is government relations firm executive Anthony Figliola, though he's attracted little money or attention.

The winner will go up against Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, who has the Democratic primary to herself.

● NY-03 (D) (53-45 Biden): Five fellow Democrats are competing in a pricey battle to succeed Rep. Tom Suozzi, who gave up this northern Nassau County seat to campaign in the primary against Gov. Kathy Hochul only to lose badly, both statewide and at home. The GOP is running 2020 nominee George Santos, whom Suozzi beat 56-43 last time as Biden was carrying the old 3rd 55-44.

Two contenders have considerably more resources than the rest of the field. Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan, who is campaigning as a moderate, has Suozzi’s endorsement, and he’s gotten some help from Protect Our Future PAC. The other well-funded candidate is DNC member Robert Zimmerman, a longtime party fundraiser who would be Long Island’s first gay member of Congress.

The field also includes two people who have lost past Democratic primaries to Suozzi. One is Jon Kaiman, a deputy Suffolk County executive who competed in the 2016 open-seat contest and has the support of the influential 32BJ SEIU building workers union. The other familiar name is Melanie D'Arrigo, who challenged the congressman from the left last cycle and lost 66-26. D'Arrigo has the backing of the Working Families Party, which has long been a force in New York progressive politics, but she’s struggled to bring in cash. The final candidate is marketing consultant Reema Rasool, who has raised very little.

● NY-04 (D) (57-42 Biden): Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice unexpectedly decided to retire after four terms, and there’s a five-way Democratic primary to replace her in this southern Nassau County district. Team Blue’s nominee will go up against Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito, who is the only Republican running here.

Rice and 32BJ SEIU are backing Laura Gillen, who was elected as Hempstead's first Democratic supervisor in more than a century in 2017 but lost reelection two years later. The only other well-funded contender is Keith Corbett, who is arguing that his election as mayor of the small and traditionally Republican village of Malverne proves his bipartisan appeal; one of Corbett’s top allies is Jay Jacobs, the controversial head of the state and county parties. Nassau County Legislator Carrié Solages and two other candidates are also in, but none of them have raised much.

● NY-10 (D) (85-15 Biden): Democrats have an expensive and closely watched contest for the dramatically revamped 10th District based in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn. Rep. Mondaire Jones, who currently represents the 17th District well to the north of the city in the Hudson Valley, decided to run here in order to avoid a primary against DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, but he faces a difficult battle nonetheless.

Among the many other major contenders here is former federal prosecutor Dan Goldman, who served as House Democrats' lead counsel during Donald Trump's first impeachment. Goldman, who is an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, has pumped $4 million of his own money into his campaign, and he’s dominated the airwaves during the campaign; he also earned an endorsement in the final weeks from The New York Times, which is an influential presence in this district. But Jones, who is the only other candidate who has been able to advertise on TV, has hit his rival over an interview in which Goldman initially seemed open to curtailing abortion rights before reversing himself.

The field also includes New York City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, who has several notable endorsements of her own. Rivera has the backing of 7th District Rep. Nydia Velazquez, who represents just under half of this new constituency, and the health care workers union 1199 SEIU, which is one of the most powerful labor organizations in city politics. Also in the running are Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, who has the Working Families Party on her side; fellow Assemblywoman Jo Anne Simon; and Elizabeth Holtzman, who is trying to return to the House after what would be a record 42-year gap.

There have been a number of polls of the race, but they've generally shown a very jumbled picture, with no candidate breaking out of the teens.

● NY-12 (D) (85-14 Biden): New York's new congressional boundaries have placed Manhattan’s Upper East Side and Upper West Side in the same district for the first time since World War I and resulted in a face-off between two 30-year incumbents, Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler. The primary also includes attorney Suraj Patel, who challenged Maloney in 2018 and 2020, and one little-known contender.

Maloney's existing 12th District in the Upper East Side makes up about 60% of this new seat, while Nadler's 10th in the Upper West Side forms another 40%. However, while Nadler was safe at home before redistricting upended the map, Maloney only held off Patel 43-39 in their last bout.

The candidates haven’t differed on any major policy issues, but Maloney has argued that the end of Roe v. Wade makes it more important than ever to have a woman in office. Nadler, meanwhile, has highlighted how he’s New York’s only remaining Jewish representative, while Patel has campaigned as a generational change agent.

An early August poll for a pro-Patel group had Nadler edging out Maloney 29-27, with Patel at 20%. After that survey was taken, though, Nadler earned endorsements from both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and The New York Times, which joined 1199 SEIU in his corner.

● NY-16 (D) (71-28 Biden): Rep. Jamaal Bowman was elected to represent southern Westchester County two years ago after unseating longtime Rep. Elliot Engel in the primary, and he now faces two members of the county legislature who hope to do the same thing to him.

Bowman’s main adversary looks like Vedat Gashi, who is presenting himself as a more moderate alternative to the progressive incumbent. Gashi has the backing of Engel, who represented 75% of the new iteration of the 16th at the time Bowman beat him, and he’s brought in a notable amount of money for his bid. Gashi’s colleague, Catherine Parker, launched her own bid in late May, but she’s struggled with fundraising. Rounding out the field is Mark Jaffe, who fared badly in a 2020 primary for the Assembly.

● NY-17 (D) (54-44 Biden): Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who heads the DCCC, is locked in a primary duel against state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, who is trying to run to his left. Maloney represents only about a quarter of this new constituency in the lower Hudson Valley, and Biaggi has taken him to task for running here rather than defending the more competitive 18th District that’s home to most of his current constituents.

Biaggi, though, currently serves none of this seat, and she doesn’t have anything approaching the incumbent’s resources. Maloney has the endorsement of Bill Clinton, who lives in the new 17th, while 14th District Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Working Families Party are pulling for the challenger. The winner will likely go up against Assemblyman Mike Lawler, who appears to be the leading candidate in the GOP primary.

● NY-19 (D) (51-47 Biden): Two Democrats are campaigning to face Republican Marc Molinaro, who is competing in the aforementioned special election for the old 19th District. A bit under half of the new version of this constituency, which is based in southeastern upstate New York, overlaps with the seat Molinaro is running for on Tuesday. One of the Democratic contenders is attorney Josh Riley, who had been running for the 22nd District in the Syracuse area until May. His opponent is businesswoman Jamie Cheney, who has run ads discussing how she had an abortion a decade ago.

● NY-22 (D & R) (53-45 Biden): Both parties have contested primaries to succeed Republican Rep. John Katko in a seat that contains the Syracuse and Utica areas. The only Democrat who has raised a serious amount of money is Navy veteran Francis Conole, who lost the 2020 primary to take on Katko in the old 24th District. Protect Our Future has also deployed over $500,000 to support Conole, while there has been no outside spending for any of his rivals, who include Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood, Syracuse Common Councilor Chol Majok, and former Assemblyman Sam Roberts.

The GOP side pits businessman Steve Wells, who lost the 2016 primary to now-Rep. Claudia Tenney in the old 22nd, against Navy veteran Brandon Williams. National Republicans are very much rooting for the self-funding Wells, as the Congressional Leadership Fund is running commercials to support him.

● NY-23 (R) (58-40 Trump): Freshman GOP Rep. Chris Jacobs abruptly decided to retire in June after coming out in favor of gun safety measures following the mass shooting in Buffalo, and two prominent Republicans are facing off to replace him. The early frontrunner was developer Carl Paladino, the proto-Trump who served as the 2010 Republican nominee for governor and has a long and ongoing history of bigoted outbursts. Paladino’s opponent is Nick Langworthy, who has retained his position as state party chair during the campaign.

Paladino has used his wealth to massively outspend Langworthy, and he released an internal in mid-July that showed him winning by a lopsided 54-24 margin. An independent survey conducted by veteran pollster Barry Zeplowitz weeks later, though, put Langworthy ahead 39-37. Paladino characteristically trashed Zeplowitz for donating $99 to his rival and claimed he had “no credibility,” but he didn’t respond with contrary numbers. The winner will face Democrat Max Della Pia, who as noted above is also running in Tuesday's special election for the old 23rd. (Neither Jacobs nor Paladino sought the GOP nod for the special.)

Morning Digest: 17 districts flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020, while only two went the other way

Posted on March 4, 2021 by Daily Kos Elections

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● House: Thanks to the recent completion of Daily Kos Elections' effort to calculate the 2020 presidential election results by congressional district, we now know that Joe Biden won 224 districts to Donald Trump's 211, a net increase of 15 seats for Democrats compared to the 2016 results under the same district lines. In a new story, Stephen Wolf has created maps and a chart showing the geography and electoral stats of the 19 districts that changed parties at the presidential level in 2020. Of those districts, 17 flipped from backing Trump in 2016 to Biden last year, while two districts switched from supporting Hillary Clinton four years ago to voting for Trump in 2020.

The districts that changed hands share some demographic commonalities, and many were competitive at the House level in November. Those that went from Trump to Biden include many historically red suburban seats with high levels of college education and voters who have grown increasingly hostile to the Republican Party under Trump. That's an extension of the pattern seen in 2016, when Clinton also flipped many historically red suburban seats.

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Unlike four years ago when Trump flipped many districts with large populations of white voters without a college degree, the two districts that Trump picked up this time both have large populations of Latino voters, a demographic that shifted sharply back toward Republicans in 2020 after giving Clinton historically high levels of support four years earlier.

Governors

● CA-Gov: Republican Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, a vocal proponent of the effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, isn't so sure about running himself if the recall makes the ballot. "I'm not planning on it now," he told Politico this week, adding that he'll "look at how the field shapes up."

● CO-Gov: Businessman Greg Lopez, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2018, has announced that he'll try for the Republican nod to take on Democratic Gov. Jared Polis again next year. The little-known Lopez finished a surprising second at the state GOP's convention three years ago, which allowed him to move on to the party's primary, but his campaign was badly underfunded and he ended up a very distant third with just 13% of the vote.

● KS-Gov: Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who'd reportedly been looking at a bid against Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, now confirms that he's "seriously considering" a campaign, though he did not offer a timetable for a decision.

● MN-Gov: Unnamed GOP operatives tell the Minnesota Reformer that Republican state Sen. Michelle Benson could be a candidate for governor next year, when Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is up for re-election, though there's no word on whether she's interested. So far, no major Republican names have entered the race.

● PA-Gov: The Cook Political Report adds former Lackawanna County Commissioner Laureen Cummings to the long list of Republicans who could run for governor next year, though she doesn't appear to have said anything publicly. Cummings briefly ran for the Senate in 2012 before dropping down to challenge Democrat Matt Cartwright for what was then the newly redrawn 17th Congressional District and got smooshed.

House

● LA-02: Democratic state Sen. Troy Carter has released a mid-February internal survey conducted by veteran New Orleans pollster Silas Lee that finds him leading the March 20 all-party primary with 28% of the vote, which is below the majority he'd need to avoid an April runoff. The poll finds that Carter's most likely opponent is fellow state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson, who edges out a third Democrat, activist Gary Chambers, 19-6 for second place.

The only other poll we've seen of the contest for this safely blue seat was a late February survey conducted for Trust the People PAC, a group opposed to Carter, that also found the two state senators advancing. Unfortunately, the PAC did not reveal the name of its pollster, which is information we require for inclusion in the Digest.

● NC-11: Buncombe County Commissioner Jasmine Beach-Ferrara just kicked off a bid against freshman Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn, making her the first notable Democrat to do so. Beach-Ferrara, who described herself "a gay woman who's a Christian minister" in her announcement video, won a second four-year term on the commission last year. Buncombe, which is home to the college town of Asheville, makes up about a third of North Carolina's 11th District and is its bluest bastion. The district overall is quite red, though: According to new calculations from Daily Kos Elections, it supported Donald Trump 55-43 last year.

● OH-01: Ohio's 1st Congressional District may already be represented by a member of his own party, but Franklin Mayor Brent Centers is eagerly trying to elbow aside Republican Rep. Steve Chabot ahead of next year's midterms. That may not go so well, however: Centers says "my assumption and the assumption of a lot of people who are endorsing me" is that Chabot will retire, but a spokesperson for the congressman says he's running for a 14th term and pointed to an op-ed Chabot wrote immediately after winning his second straight difficult re-election campaign in November saying he'd be on the ballot in 2022.

According to Centers, though, that hasn't stopped a whole host of officials in his home base of Warren County from backing his would-be candidacy, which he says he plans to launch in early May. It's possible that some of these local pols think they're avoiding a direct conflict with Chabot because Warren could be drawn into another neighboring district, and Centers even hinted that could set him on a collision course with two other Republicans: Reps. Warren Davidson and Brad Wenstrup. But redistricting is still a long ways away, so if Centers is serious about kicking off a bid in just two months' time, he'll have to make it clear whether or not he's actually going to primary Chabot.

● TX-06: There was a surprise less than an hour before candidate filing closed Wednesday when Dan Rodimer, who was the Republican nominee for Nevada's 3rd District last year, filled out paperwork to run in the May 1 special all-party primary. Rodmier's campaign didn't come completely out of nowhere, as the Dallas Morning News' Gromer Jeffers mentioned him as a possible contender last week, but the former WWE wrestler hadn't said anything publicly until now.

Rodimer, whose Twitter account still listed his location as Las Vegas even as he was filing to run in the Lone Star State, said, "We need fighters in Texas, and that's what I'm coming here for. I'm moving back to Texas." We'll have more about Rodimer and the rest of this crowded field in our next Digest.

Meanwhile, former Trump spokesperson Katrina Pierson tweeted on Tuesday night that she'd be sitting the contest out. A third Republican, party activist Susan Wright, also earned an endorsement this week from 21st District Rep. Chip Roy in her quest to succeed her late husband, Rep. Ron Wright.

● TX-13: The Department of Defense on Wednesday released its long-awaited inspector general’s report into allegations against freshman Republican Rep. Ronny Jackson from his time as chief White House physician, and it concluded that he displayed egregious behavior during his tenure.

The report concluded that Jackson “engaged in inappropriate conduct involving the use of alcohol” during two presidential trips; “disparaged, belittled, bullied, and humiliated” subordinates, which included “sexual and denigrating” comments against one; and “took Ambien during official travel, raising concerns about his potential incapacity to provide medical care during his travel.”

Jackson, who represents one of the most Republican seats in the nation, responded by once again declaring, “Democrats are using this report to repeat and rehash untrue attacks on my integrity.”

● WA-04: Far-right ex-cop Loren Culp, who lost a bid for governor by a 57-43 margin to Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee last year, suggested this week that he might run against Rep. Dan Newhouse in Washington's 4th Congressional District next year. Newhouse, of course, is one of just 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump, earning him the ire of local GOP officials and conservative activists alike.

However, a Culp campaign could actually benefit him. That's because Republican state Rep. Brad Klippert already launched a challenge in January, meaning that the high-profile Culp might only help fracture the disaffected Trumpist vote on the right. Klippert does have one advantage, though: His entire legislative district is contained in the 4th, while Culp, notes NCWLIFE's Jefferson Robbins, doesn't even live in Newhouse's district but rather in the 5th.

● WI-03: Republican Derrick Van Orden, who previously had not ruled out a rematch against Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, says he is "very seriously considering" another bid, though he did not say when he might decide.

Legislatures

● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's special elections:

AL-SD-26: Democrat Kirk Hatcher defeated Republican William Green 78-22 to hold this seat for his party. Hatcher's win was right in line with past Democratic performances in this district. According to FiveThiryEight's Nathaniel Rakich, Hillary Clinton won this district 77-20 in 2016 and former Sen. David Burkette won here 80-20 in 2018.

Republicans now have a 27-7 majority in this chamber with one other seat vacant.

CA-SD-10: As of early Wednesday, Democrat Sydney Kamlager was leading in this South Los Angeles-area district and is on track to easily avoid a runoff. Kamlager declared victory and was leading her closest competition, fellow Democrat Daniel Lee, 68-13.

As the likely outcome of this race is a Democratic hold, the composition of this chamber would return to a 31-9 lead for Team Blue.

CT-SD-27: Democrat Patricia Miller defeated Republican Joshua Esses to hold this seat for her party. The state of Connecticut has not released vote totals for this race yet, but according to the Stamford Advocate, Miller was leading by approximately 100 votes and Esses had conceded the race.

This chamber will return to a 24-12 advantage for Democrats.

MA-HD-19th Suffolk: Former Winthrop Town Council president Jeffrey Turco won the Democratic primary in this reliably blue seat in the Winthrop area. Turco came out ahead of union representative Juan Jaramillo 36-30 in a contest where there were very sharp ideological contrasts between the two top contenders.

Jaramillo was endorsed by notable progressives such as Rep. Ayanna Pressley and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and also had the backing of several labor groups, such as the Massachusetts Teachers Association. Turco, meanwhile, voted for Donald Trump in 2016, was supported by several police unions, and received backlash from groups such as NARAL for his stance on reproductive rights. Turco's support of GOP candidates extended into the 2020 cycle as well, when he donated to the re-election campaign of Maine Sen. Susan Collins.

Former Massachusetts House staffer Alicia DelVento, meanwhile, took third with 26% while Valentino Capobianco, who is chief of staff to state Sen. Paul Feeney, took 7%. Capobianco had the backing of establishment figures such as state Attorney General Maura Healey and former Rep. Joe Kennedy but lost their support when sexual misconduct allegations surfaced against him.

Turco will begin as the favorite over Republican Paul Caruccio in the March 30 general election in this district that supported Hillary Clinton 60-36 in 2016.

Mayors

● New York City, NY Mayor: On Wednesday, Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams earned an endorsement from the Hotel Trades Council, which is one of the major unions in city politics, for the June instant-runoff Democratic primary.

● St. Louis, MO Mayor: St. Louis on Tuesday became the first large city in America to host a race using an "approval voting" system, which allows voters to cast as many votes in the primary as there are candidates, and City Treasurer Tishaura Jones and Alderman Cara Spencer advanced to next month's nonpartisan general election.

Tishaura Jones, who narrowly lost the 2017 Democratic primary to retiring incumbent Lyda Krewson under the old system, won support from 57% of voters, while 46% selected Cara Spencer as a choice. A third Democratic contender, Aldermanic President Lewis Reed, earned the backing of 39% of voters, while 19% selected Republican Andrew Jones.

Tishaura Jones and Cara Spencer will compete again in the April 6 general election, where voters will only be able to select one of them. Tishaura Jones would be the city's first Black leader since 2001.

● St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: St. Pete Polls, working on behalf of Florida Politics, surveys the August nonpartisan primary of its namesake city and finds three Democrats in a close fight for the two spots in a likely general election, though with a large plurality of voters still undecided. City Councilwoman Darden Rice leads with 15%, while former Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch and former state Rep. Wengay Newton are each just behind with 14%; another five candidates were tested, but none of them took more than 5% of the vote.

St. Pete also tests a hypothetical November matchup between Rice and Welch and finds Welch ahead 31-24.

Data

● Pres-by-CD: We've made some minor adjustments to our calculations of the 2020 presidential election results by congressional district in Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York based on more precise data we've received since we initially published our findings for each state.

The largest shift came in New Jersey, which resulted in 427 votes moving between the 5th District to the 9th, with Donald Trump's margin increasing by that sum in the former and Biden's growing a corresponding amount in the latter. We also corrected a minor error in Oklahoma that resulted in a total of 484 votes shifting from the 4th District to the 5th with no change to the raw vote margin between the two candidates.

Grab Bag

● Where Are They Now?: The district attorney’s office in Shawnee County, Kansas announced this week that it had reached a diversion agreement with former Republican Rep. Steve Watkins that would allow him to avoid trial over voter fraud charges. If Watkins follows the conditions, avoids breaking the law, and pays a $250 fine, the charges against him would be dropped in September.

Back in late 2019, the Topeka Capital-Journal first reported that Watkins may have committed voter fraud by listing a UPS store in Topeka as his home address on his voter registration form and then proceeding to cast a ballot the previous month as though he lived there. Watkins’ team insisted he’d made an "inadvertent" error and insisted he had "no improper purpose" because the UPS store and his supposed residence are both in the same county and congressional district. However, the locations are in different city council districts, and the contest Watkins cast his ballot in was decided by just 13 votes.

Local authorities began investigating Watkins for potential voter fraud soon afterwards, and they charged him the following July with three felonies, including lying to law enforcement. Watkins, who was already facing a tough intra-party challenge from state Treasurer Jake LaTurner even before the UPS story broke, argued he was the victim of a “hyper-political” attack, but LaTurner beat him by a blistering 49-34 margin that following month and went on to prevail in November. As part of Watkins’ diversion agreement, he acknowledged that he’d lied to a detective by claiming he hadn’t voted in that tight city council contest.

Morning Digest: GOP primary for swingy New Mexico House seat reaches new low in nastiness

Posted on May 6, 2020 by Daily Kos Elections

Leading Off

● NM-02: The June 2 GOP contest to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico's 2nd District turned negative a long time ago, and it may now be the ugliest primary anywhere in the country.

The Associated Press' Russell Contreras reported Tuesday that 2018 nominee Yvette Herrell had texted with a conservative cartoonist named Roger Rael about a meme Rael was creating that suggested that Herrell's main rival, businesswoman Claire Chase, had been unfaithful to her first husband. Herrell showed a close interest in Rael's illustration, going so far as to inform him about multiple spelling errors: "It should say gold digging, not good digging," she wrote, adding, "Let me send them in the morning. There are a couple of more."

Campaign Action

Herrell's campaign did acknowledge that she had communicated with Rael, who it just so happens is currently under indictment for what Contreras describes as "disorderly conduct and criminal damage to property charges in connection with an alleged attack on a Republican state House candidate." However, Herrell's spokesperson claimed that Rael had incessantly messaged Herrell, saying that her texts only came in response to his. (What better way to fend off unwelcome texting than to turn into the grammar police?) Herrell also put out a statement saying, "I have never attempted to use personal rumors about Claire in this race, and will never do so. Neither has my campaign."

Chase, unsurprisingly, was not appeased, and she called for Herrell to drop out of the primary. Chase's former husband, Ben Gray, issued his own statement slamming Herrell: "I can't believe Yvette Herrell would try to use me in this false, disgusting attack," he wrote. Gray, who said he was still friends with Chase and is a member of a group called Veterans for Claire, added, "What kind of person would smear a Veteran to win a political campaign?"

But even before these latest developments, this was a messy campaign. Both candidates launched ads last month that accused the other of trying to undermine Donald Trump in 2016; Herrell's commercial even employed a narrator who used what Nathan Gonzalez described as a "ditzy tone" to impersonate Chase. Gonzalez, who titled his article, "The campaign attack ad no man could get away with," also characterized the spot as "one of the most sexist campaign ads in recent memory."

Whoever makes it out of next month's primary will emerge bruised, but the winner will still have a chance to beat Torres Small simply because of the district's conservative demographics: This southern New Mexico seat supported Donald Trump 50-40, and Daily Kos Elections rates the general election a Tossup.

But Torres Small, who defeated Herrell 51-49 last cycle, had nearly $3 million in the bank to defend herself at the end of March, while her prospective opponents didn't have anywhere close to that much. Herrell enjoyed a $378,000 to $264,000 cash-on-hand lead over Chase while a third candidate, self-funder Chris Mathys, had $200,000 to spend.

Election Changes

● Florida: The Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, along with two other organizations and several voters, has filed a lawsuit asking a federal court to relax a number of Florida laws related to absentee voting for the state's Aug. 18 primaries and the November general election. In particular, the plaintiffs want absentee ballots to count so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within 10 days; currently, ballots must be received by 7 PM local time on Election Day. They're also asking that the state pay the postage on return envelopes for mail-in ballots, and that Florida's ban on paid organizers assisting with ballot collection be lifted.

● Nevada: Nevada Democrats and their national counterparts have withdrawn their legal challenge seeking a number of changes to the state's June 2 primary after officials in Clark County acceded to two of their biggest demands. According to a court filing, plaintiffs say that Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria has agreed to mail ballots to all voters, not just those listed as "active," and will add two in-person voting sites, for a total of three.

Officials in other parts of the state have made more limited concessions, per the filing, but Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, is home to 71% of Nevada voters and 81% of all "inactive" voters in the state. Democrats also say they plan to continue pressing their claims for the general election.

● North Carolina: Several North Carolina voters, backed by voting rights organizations, have brought a lawsuit asking a state court to relax a number of laws related to absentee voting for the November general election. In particular, the plaintiffs want absentee ballots to count so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within nine days, which is the same deadline for military voters; currently, ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within just three days.

They're also asking for an expanded definition of the term "postmark" to include modern imprints like barcodes, and in the event a postmark does not include a date, they want officials "to presume that the ballot was mailed on or before Election Day unless the preponderance of the evidence demonstrates it was mailed after Election Day."

In addition, plaintiffs want the state to pay for postage for both absentee ballot applications and ballots, and they want the court to waive the requirement that absentee voters have their ballots either notarized or signed by two witnesses. Finally, plaintiffs are requesting that voters be given the opportunity to correct any issues if their signatures allegedly do not match those on file.

● Oklahoma: The Oklahoma Supreme Court has struck down a requirement that absentee ballots be notarized and issued an order prohibiting officials from sending out ballots or other voting materials suggesting that notarization is still mandatory. Last month, the League of Women Voters challenged the notary requirement, calling it antithetical to stemming the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The court's decision, however, was not grounded in public health but rather a state law that allows a signed statement made under penalty of perjury to suffice in lieu of a notarization in most cases where an affidavit is called for.

Senate

● CO-Sen: Businesswoman Michelle Ferrigno Warren's campaign came to an end on Monday when the Colorado Supreme Court unanimously reversed a lower-court ruling that had placed her on the June 23 Democratic primary ballot. Denver District Court Judge Christopher Baumann had ordered Warren onto the ballot last month even though she didn't have enough signatures after deciding that, in light of disruptions caused by social distancing, she had collected enough to justify her place in the primary. However, the state's highest court ultimately ruled that only the legislature has the authority to change how many petitions are needed.

This could spell very bad news for another candidate, nonprofit head Lorena Garcia. Baumann had also ordered Garcia onto the primary ballot for the same reason he had applied to Warren, but Secretary of State Jena Griswold's office announced Monday evening that she was appealing his decision to the state Supreme Court.

● GA-Sen-A: 2017 House nominee Jon Ossoff is out with a new statewide ad ahead of the June 9 Democratic primary that prominently features Rep. John Lewis and touts his endorsement. Lewis speaks positively of Ossoff, imploring voters to support him and "send Donald Trump a message he will never forget", while clips of the pair appearing together are shown.

Lewis and Ossoff have a relationship that dates back several years. Ossoff previously interned for the civil rights icon and Atlanta-area congressman, while Lewis was one of Ossoff's earliest supporters in his 2017 special election bid for the 6th Congressional District.

● ME-Sen: The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC is out with a health care-themed spot, supported with a six-figure buy, attacking Republican Sen. Susan Collins. The ad ties Collins to the pharmaceutical industry and also states that she "voted against Mainers with pre-existing conditions and for corporate special interests." The commercial, which also shows images of Collins seated alongside Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, closes by saying, "Money changes everything, even Susan Collins."

● NC-Sen, NC-Gov: A new poll conducted by Democratic pollster Civiqs on behalf of Daily Kos shows Democrats well ahead in North Carolina's Senate and gubernatorial contests. (Civiqs and Daily Kos are owned by the same parent company.) Cal Cunningham leads GOP Sen. Thom Tillis 50-41, while Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper posts a similar 53-44 edge against Republican Dan Forest; this sample also finds Joe Biden ahead 49-46.

This is the largest lead we've seen for Cunningham since he won the primary in early March, though we still don't have too many other polls to work with. The conservative Civitas Institute released numbers in mid-April from the GOP firm Harper Polling that showed Tillis ahead 38-34, while the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Cunningham ahead 47-40 around that same time. A SurveyUSA poll released last week also had Cunningham ahead just 41-39.

Civiqs does find Cooper taking about the same percentage of the vote as other firms do, but it finds Forest in better shape. While Cooper has consistently posted very strong approval ratings since the coronavirus pandemic began, it seems unlikely that Forest will end up in the mid-30s when all is said and done in this polarized state. Indeed, the last time a major party gubernatorial nominee failed to take at least 42% of the vote was 1980.

● TX-Sen: Air Force veteran MJ Hegar picked up an endorsement this week from Rep. Veronica Escobar ahead of the July Democratic primary runoff.

Gubernatorial

● MT-Gov: Businesswoman Whitney Williams picked up an endorsement on Tuesday from Hillary Clinton for the June 2 Democratic primary.

Meanwhile, Williams is also out with a commercial where she declares that, while trailblazing women built Montana, Rep. Greg Gianforte and Donald Trump are threatening women now. Williams declares that Trump and the GOP primary frontrunner "want to take away our right to choose. Even restrict birth control. I won't let that happen."

Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney, who is Williams' primary opponent, is also out with a TV spot. The narrators say that Cooney worked with outgoing Gov. Steve Bullock to expand healthcare access, protect rural hospitals, and create the jobs "that will steer our economy through this crisis." The ad ends by reminding voters that Bullock and Sen. Jon Tester are backing Cooney.

While the primary is almost a month away, voters will have the chance to cast their ballots very soon. Republican Secretary of State Corey Stapleton announced in March that all 56 Montana counties plan to conduct the state's primary by mail, and that ballots will be mailed out to registered voters on May 8.

House

● IA-04: This week, the deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed state Sen. Randy Feenstra over white supremacist Rep. Steve King in the June 2 GOP primary.

● PA-10: Attorney Tom Brier is up with his first TV spot ahead of the June 2 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Scott Perry.

The commercial shows several images of Brier's volunteers as the candidate explains his campaign "has always been about bringing progressive Democrats together. Lots of Democrats who are now volunteering from home." Brier's supporters then say what they believe in, including taking money out of politics, dealing with the opioid crisis, and healthcare for all. Brier ends by telling the viewer, "Apply for your mail-in ballot today."

Brier faces state Auditor Eugene DePasquale, who has the support of the DCCC, in next month's primary, and DePasquale ended March with a large $657,000 to $145,000 cash-on-hand lead. Perry, who narrowly won re-election last cycle, had $816,000 available to defend himself in a seat in the Harrisburg and York area that backed Trump 52-43.

Mayoral

● Baltimore, MD Mayor: On behalf of The Citizens for Ethical Progressive Leadership PAC, a group supporting former U.S. Treasury official Mary Miller, the Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group is out with a mid-April poll showing a tight June 2 Democratic primary.

The first survey we’ve seen since mid-March finds that Miller, former Mayor Sheila Dixon, and City Council President Brandon Scott are in a three-way tie with 16% each, while incumbent Jack Young is at 13%. Two other contenders, former Baltimore Police Department spokesman T.J. Smith and former state prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah, are at 11% and 10%, respectively, while 18% are undecided. It only takes a simple plurality to win, and the Democratic nominee should have no trouble in November in this very blue city.

The primary, which was delayed from April 28 to early June because of the coronavirus pandemic, has also turned into a very expensive contest. The Baltimore Sun reports that Miller has raised $800,000 and self-funded an additional $1.5 million this year, which has allowed her to outspend her many opponents; Miller had only $150,000 left in late April, but she may have the resources to self-fund more.

Miller is also the only one of the many major candidates who is white in a city that’s 63% African American and 32% white: The other notable candidates are Black except for Vignarajah, who is the son of Sri Lankan immigrants. Baltimore’s last white mayor was Martin O’Malley, who was elected in 1999 and resigned in early 2007 to become governor of Maryland.

Vignarajah has also been a strong fundraiser, and he had the largest war chest in the field last month with $700,000 in the bank. Scott, who has the backing of several unions, led Dixon in cash-on-hand $415,000 to $300,000, while Young had $202,000 to spend; Young’s campaign said that he’s all but stopped fundraising as he deals with the coronavirus. Smith, meanwhile, was far behind with just $22,000 available.

It would ordinarily be quite surprising to see a crowded race where the incumbent trailing in both the polls and the money contest, but Young has only been in office for about a year. He was elevated from City Council president to mayor when incumbent Catherine Pugh resigned in disgrace (she later was sentenced to three years in prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy and tax evasion charges related to her self-published children's books), and a number of candidates quickly made it clear that they’d challenge Young.

Young’s critics have argued that the veteran local politician isn’t the right person to help Baltimore deal with its long-term problems, and they’ve also taken him to task for his many gaffes. To take one example, Young said of the city’s high homicide rate last year, “I’m not committing the murders, and that’s what people need to understand," and, "How can you fault leadership? This has been five years of 300-plus murders. I don't see it as a lack of leadership."

Several polls taken during the winter showed Young badly trailing, and Mason-Dixon gave him a 28-39 favorable rating in mid-March. However, that was during the early days of the coronavirus crisis in the United States, and we don’t have enough data to indicate if Young's handling of the situation at home has given him a better shot to win a full term this year.

Miller began airing commercials months ago, and she’s largely had the airwaves to herself. Miller also has a new commercial where she tells viewers that Barack Obama brought her on at the Treasury Department during the Great Recession, and argues she has the experience to help Baltimore “come back stronger” from the current pandemic.

Dixon, meanwhile, went up with her first spot last week, which featured several people praising her accomplishments as mayor. Dixon resigned that post in 2010 after she was convicted of stealing gift cards that were supposed to help needy families, but she’s maintained a base of support since then. Dixon ran for mayor again in 2016 and narrowly lost the primary to then-state Sen. Pugh 37-35. Dixon launched a write-in campaign just a month ahead of the competitive general election and took second place with 52,000 votes, which was good for a 58-22 loss.

Vignarajah also recently went up with a new ad that features several locals praising him as a responsive leader. Vignarajah’s supporters say he got them jobs, stopped their water from being shut off, and halted illegal trash dumping. One woman also praises Vignarajah for convicting the men who murdered her young son.

Oklahoma Cop Charged With Murder After Killing Active Shooter Who Was Shooting Up The Town

Posted on February 6, 2020 by LifeZette

By Steve Pomper | February 6, 2020

At this moment, there is a decorated police officer in Blackwell, Oklahoma who, despite wide and passionate support, is likely feeling pretty damned alone right now. His wife and children, other family members, friends, colleagues, and supporters can commiserate and sympathize, but when you’re the one indicted for murder—for doing your job—no one feels it like you do. Your hell is a special one.

And this hell is made even worse because of the unique circumstances. This hero police officer was indicted after he’d protected his community by risking his life to stop an active shooter before she could kill anyone.

On May 20^th, 2019, an armed 34-year-old woman, Michael Ann Godsey (pronounced Michelle), drove her pickup truck through Blackwell, firing a gun out the window at cars, people, and cops. And this was after she’d already shot at her mother.

Blackwell Police Department Lieutenant John Mitchell set his wellbeing aside and ended the danger that threatened the people he is sworn to protect, and he did it in a uniquely heroic way. While driving, he managed to deploy his rifle and fire through his patrol car’s windshield at the active shooter’s car, thereby stopping the rampage.

By all accounts, from people who know him, Lt. Mitchell is a well-respected professional law enforcement officer and devoted family man who is both dedicated to his job and active in the Blackwell community. But with motives that defy rationality, a district attorney named Jason Hicks has, for mysterious reasons, after a seven-month delay and after having been cleared by an independent investigation, targeted the lieutenant.

During the incident, Lt. Mitchell fired some 60 rounds from his rifle attempting to stop the shooter. He also fired shots with his pistol before the suspect was no longer a threat. The D.A. did not indict another officer who’d only fired his service handgun.

It seems Hicks is hung up on the number of rounds Lt. Mitchell fired. Well, as I wrote in my first article on this story, “It was the number necessary to stop the shooter.” Is firing that many rounds a danger to the community? Sure. Firing one round at a suspect is dangerous. But who made so many rounds necessary? The suspect did by not surrendering and continuing to be a threat.

Should Lt. Mitchell have imposed on himself a bullet quota? How about 7, 13, or 23 bullets? But it didn’t take 7, 13, or 23 rounds to stop the threat; it took over 60. That’s how it went, and no one was killed or even seriously injured. Would people have been killed or wounded if Lt. Mitchell had stopped firing at 7, 13, or some other arbitrary number of rounds and allowed the suspect to continue driving and shooting?

I’d ask D.A. Hicks: aside from disengaging the suspect, what other options did Lt. Mitchell have? Maybe Hicks feels the officer should have, oh, I don’t know, rammed the suspect. But doesn’t that mean the officer would have had to get even closer to a suspect who is shooting at him? No tactical advantage in doing that.

Are there other ways this could have ended without innocent deaths or injuries? Probably. In a unique incident like this, individual officers will come up with different (not necessarily better or worse) tactics to stop the threat. But, for all of them, the mission will be the same: stop the threat.

Disengaging from an active shooter is not a viable option. That’s not what “active shooter” training teaches cops. In backing off, you’re betting that the suspect will deescalate if the you stop pursuing him or her. But remember what the Blackwell cops were chasing her for? She was already shooting! Bot her gun and her car were weapons. Lt. Mitchell did the only thing that was going to “deescalate” the situation: shoot back.

Consider how difficult it is for an officer to stop a shooter who is mobile and shooting at him or her. How can one get so bogged down with the number of rounds fired in such an unusual circumstance? How does Lt. Mitchell not deserve the benefit of the doubt? We can’t list the names of the victims who would have, without the cop’s actions, been injured or killed, to justify Lt. Mitchell’s actions. We can’t because, thanks to that brave officer, there were no victims injured or killed.

It’s not like Lt. Mitchell had a mental Rolodex of similar incidents to scroll through. Officers in these life and death situations have to make it up as they go along using their best judgement over the course of multiple split-second decisions. Considering the dynamic, life-threatening circumstances of this incident, the lack of the benefit of the doubt given to this officer by D.A. Hicks is confounding.

But, rather than D.A. Hicks hailing Lt. Mitchell for his heroics, after a bizarre, inexplicable seven-month delay, and well after the cop had been cleared following an investigation by the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation (OSBI), D.A. Hicks, reportedly using only evidence heavily weighted against Lt. Mitchell, got a grand jury to indict the veteran lawman, charging him with second degree murder.

And how is Lt. Mitchell to move forward from here after the charges are dropped or he is acquitted (as should happen)? Will he second-guess and hesitate if he’s involved in a similar situation? It would be unnatural not to under these circumstances.

In police work, hesitation can mean injury and death. And this is just a part of the damage D.A. Hicks has done to this community. Other cops in his jurisdiction will have to watch their backs too… not for criminals but for this county D.A.

Several years ago, I was a witness officer in a case where an officer, the victim of an assault at a stolen car collision scene, was charged federally for violating the suspects’ civil rights. I wrote about the incident in my book, De-Policing America. That officer did nothing wrong. In fact, the suspects had resisted arrest and assaulted him and other officers.

Long story short, they should have been charged with felonies for assaulting police officers, but they were only charged for misdemeanor assault in municipal court. A jury acquitted them, later saying they felt the defendants had “suffered enough” because one of them had been pepper-sprayed during the melee.

This acquittal encouraged their lawyers to pursue the federal charge mentioned above. That officer is probably the toughest cop I ever knew. During the course of the lengthy trial, he lost at least 20 pounds he couldn’t afford to lose, had trouble sleeping, and he was never again the proactive cop he’d always been. And this wasn’t a murder charge.

Now, people who say cops shouldn’t worry if they’ve done nothing wrong have their heads up their… umm, in the sand, these days. No less than the Obama/Holder DOJ found that Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson did nothing wrong during the Michael Brown incident. Yet, Wilson will likely never work as a police officer again. And that’s without being charged with any crime.

Ironically, during this legal hell, his community and professional associations have honored Lt. John Mitchell for his service as a police officer. In July 2019, he received a prestigious award for his work in rural drug enforcement. Most recently, in January 2020, John was selected by the readers of the Blackwell Journal-Tribune as the 2019 Best Law Enforcement Officer.

The important thing is for as many people as possible learn about what a county D.A. is doing to this stellar public servant. And then, hopefully, those people will let John know how they feel about his service and let him know they support him (information about how you can do that is provided at the end of this article).

John is supported not only by his community but also by the Oklahoma Fraternal Order of Police (OFOP), and by cops and civilians all over America. Under what must be the intense pressure of commonsense niggling at Hick’s conscience, the man continues this mockery of the American justice system and his attack on all law enforcers.

It isn’t known exactly what evidence Hicks included or omitted for the grand jury or how many mistakes were made, but consider this. One mistake was issuing a flawed subpoena intended for the Blackwell Police Chief Dewayne Wood. Instead, the subpoena went to a (likely bewildered) Duane Wood, who, dutifully, appeared before the grand jury instead.

The other thing to consider is after what you’ve read about the incident in just these brief descriptions, you’ve likely concluded what other lucid people have. That John acted bravely under the most harrowing of circumstances and prevented injuries and deaths.

Now, just think about what evidence the D.A. had to exclude for the grand jury to arrive at the conclusion that “Mitchell’s actions were ‘imminently dangerous’ and were ‘without justifiable cause or excuse.” Especially, that last one. Sorry, shooting at someone who is shooting at you and other people seems a justifiable cause or excuse to put all the rounds on your target that you can until the target stops shooting.

As Jason Smith, president of the OFOP noted, “A grand jury indicted a Blackwell police lieutenant for murder for killing an active shooter, and the state’s police union is questioning why the district attorney held back evidence from the indictment.” He added, “I’ve yet to see in American history when an active shooter was taken out by a police officer or civilian who was then charged with murder—murder isn’t defined by that in America.”

There’s a more to this story, but it’s my intention just to keep his plight in the minds of John’s growing list of supporters, and to inform people who haven’t heard about this sham, as the preliminary hearing approaches. The hearing will be held at the Noble County Courthouse, Perry, Oklahoma on Feb. 18^th, 2020.

If you’re interested in other aspects of the case, which are as curious as they are fascinating, I wrote a more in depth article last December and a brief follow up in January about John’s ordeal.

One bright note is the outpouring of affection and support for John from across the nation. Thousands of people have joined a Facebook page established to support John. Anyone interested in showing their support can go to the Facebook page: We Stand By John Mitchell. There you can post notes of encouragement for John and his family. You can also purchase t-shirts and stickers to demonstrate your support.

This piece originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

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