As our primary night live coverage steams towards midnight on the East Coast, all eyes are now on the special election in NY-19. A number of pundits predicted a Republican win here, given the relative lack of spending on the Democratic side (the Dems might have been yielding to practicality: both candidates are prohibitive favorites in different districts come November) and a well-known name on the GOP side in former Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, who ran for Governor in 2018. Two polls, one by the DCCC and one by the left-leaning Data For Progress, both showed Molinaro leading Democrat Pat Ryan (the County Executive in Ulster County.

So, where are we?

• With roughly 90% of the vote counted, in a mild upset, Democrat Pat Ryan has a 52-48 lead, a raw vote edge of about 4100 votes.
• HOWEVER: Several counties appear to be still counting election day votes, which have strongly favored the Republican. In particular, Otsego County is sitting on an estimated 6000-7000 votes which will almost certainly lean to Molinaro.
• BUT: The two leading Democratic districts have turned OUT, with Columbia County and Ulster County ranking first and third in turnout relative to the 2018 general election (Molinaro’s Dutchess County is second).
• ALSO: There is an undetermined number of late-arriving mail ballots still waiting to arrive at county boards of elections, and they should favor Ryan.

So what does this all mean? It means this one is likely to be very close when all is said and done. And, in a Biden +2 district, to echo a refrain from past primary/special election coverage, this wouldn’t be happening in a “red wave” environment.

NY-19 Special: The GOP’s hopes just took a modest hit. Those election day votes (or at least a sizable percentage of them) have come in, and they only netted Marc Molinaro about 850 votes (this tranche of votes was about 8200 votes in total). Thus, Democrat Pat Ryan leads 51-49 overall, with a raw vote lead of just under 3300 votes.

NY-23 Special: Here is a (small) consolation for the Red team. Republican Joseph Sempolinski has pulled ahead of Democrat Max Della Pia by a 53-47 margin. It’s a small consolation, because this district favored Trump by a 55-43 margin in 2020.

NY-19 Special: ABC, NBC, and CBS have called the election for Democrat Pat Ryan. On paper, some will dismiss this as a Democrat holding onto a seat held by a Democratic Congressman (now-LG Antonio Delgado). But don’t let them fool you. This is a definite blow to the GOP, who threw quite a bit of money into this race, and does serious violence to the notion that Democrats are underdogs this year in districts with tenuous Biden leads (this was a Biden +2 district). And I will say it again for what feels like the 59th time: “red wave” years don’t usually look like this in the run-up to the election. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But a party which purportedly has all the momentum doesn’t cough up winnable races like this very often.

NY-23 (R): In the new (and heavily Republican) 23rd district left open by the retirement of Rep. Chris Jacobs, it looks like Carl Paladino’s attempt at a political second act may come up short. State party chair Nick Langworthy has now moved ahead of Paladino (who led most of the night) and holds a 52-48 lead over Paladino (a raw vote edge of about 2000 votes).

NY-23 Special: Small consolation for Republicans, but the AP has made a call for Republican Joe Sempolinski, who will serve out the remainder of the term of Rep. Tom Reed, who resigned earlier in the year. Like NY-19, however, the margin is equal to or less than the 2020 presidential outcome. Sempolinski currently leads by six points in a 55-43 Trump district.

NY-24 (R): Missed this one in the NY-19 hullaballoo, but the AP did call this primary for incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney, who defeated Mario Fratto by a distinctly unimpressive 54-40 margin.

NY-19 Special: And there it is. The AP calls this special election for Democrat Pat Ryan. The GOP will spin tonight as status quo, with a 1-1 split. But, again, they spent money on this race with their best possible candidate. And they lost. What’s more: this district (at Biden +2) is actually not as amenable to the GOP as the NY-19 that Molinaro will try to win in November (which is Biden +4). Ryan, meanwhile, will be at least a modest favorite in the new NY-18, which is 53-45 Biden. A modest upset (the only two publicly released polls had Molinaro ahead), and a key boost to Democrats as they head towards November.

NY-03 (D): Others have undoubtedly exhausted every Bob Dylan reference available, but the AP has indeed called this Long Island district for DNC member Robert Zimmerman. Zimmerman will be a slight betting favorite to hold NY-03, which was left open by Tom Suozzi’s quixotic bid for Governor. He faces Robert Santos, who lost to Suozzi by double digits in 2020 in a marginally more Democratic district (NY-03 moved about three points in the direction of the GOP in redistricting).

So, we have three races that we’ve been tracking tonight that have yet to be called by AP:

• NY-10 (D): This was effectively an open seat that Rep. Mondaire Jones ran in rather than dealing with fellow Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in a race that would probably have favored Maloney. Jones’ gamble, alas, was all for naught, as he is a distant third with 18% of the vote. The current leader is former Trump impeachment counsel Daniel Goldman, with 26% of the vote. State assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou is a close second with 24%, roughly 1300 votes behind in the raw vote. Late mail votes will almost certainly decide this one.
• NY-22 (D): This one has moved very little as the night has wore on, with 2020 candidate Francis Conole leading fellow military veteran Sarah Hood by about four points (currently 40-36). The raw vote margin is just under 1100 votes and the total vote count is still a bit light, which is undoubtedly driving the reluctance of AP to call this one.
• NY-23 (R): This one, unlike the first two, feels like it is done and is just waiting for AP to declare the decedent truly dead and gone. State Party Chair Nick Langworthy has a 52-48 lead over businessman Carl Paladino, last seen running a losing campaign for Governor a dozen years ago. The raw vote margin is 2000 votes, and with nearly 50,000 votes in the can, it’s pretty hard to see where Paladino makes a comeback.

With that update, and the assumption that the two Democratic races are a bit unlikely to be called tonight, we will call it a night here at DK Elections. We have one more primary night left to share together: on September 13th, when the voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island have their say. After that, it’s on to November! Thanks for following along on a profoundly interesting night for elections junkies. And please check back tomorrow for more updates and analysis on all of tonight’s headlines. Have a great night!

If you’re just checking in, welcome to one of the final nights of the 2022 primary season! Florida, as always, is counting with astounding pace, and we have updates from all over the Sunshine State. Oklahoma has just begun their counting, and New York is less than an hour away from their polls closing. Here is what has already happened on this very consequential election night:

• In a primary that ultimately wound up being a bit of a rout, Congressman (and former Governor) Charlie Crist scored an easy win over state Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried (60-35) in the Democratic primary for FL-Gov.
• In a primary that wound up being very much not a rout, right-wing extremist Laura Loomer, last seen getting dumped by 20 points in a House bid in 2020, wound up nearly defeating incumbent Rep. Dan Webster in the GOP primary in FL-11. With most of the vote tallied, Webster has hung on with a 51-44 win over Loomer.
• In the Panhandle (FL-01), notorious incumbent Rep. Matt Gaetz was actually primaried to his right. Granted, there isn’t much real estate over there, which is probably why he has a considerable edge over Mark Lombardo (65-29).
• In FL-10, the Orlando-area seat being vacated by Democratic Senate nominee Val Demings (who easily won her Senate primary over nominal opposition), gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost has a 34-25 lead over state Senator Randolph Bracy. Two former Democratic House members who have a certain level of notoriety (or infamy, some would say) are trailing well behind: Alan Grayson (16%) and Corinne Brown (10%).
• Finally a few competitive primaries have already been decided, including FL-04 (R) in favor of state Senator Aaron Bean, FL-20 (D) in favor of incumbent Rep. Shiela Cherfilus-McCormick, and FL-23 (D) in favor of Broward County commissioner Jared Moskowitz.

OK-Sen (R): Welp. That didn’t take long. Shortly after we hit the 10% reporting threshold, the AP called the Senate runoff for Republican Rep. Markwayne Mullin, who has a double-digit lead over T.W. Shannon.

Other recent AP calls that have just come in:

• FL-15 (R): The AP calls for Trump endorsee and former Sec. of State Laurel Lee.
• FL-01 (R): No shocker here, but Rep. Matt Gaetz is the projected winner after being primaried by wealthy opponent Mark Lombardo.
• FL-07 (R): Veteran Cory Mills has saved us from Congressman Anthony Sabbatini (not that he is anyone’s idea of a moderate, so this is a small victory, at best). Mills has been declared the winner in this multi-candidate field, besting Sabbatini by about 15 points. This district now leans to the GOP after their aggressive gerrymandering of the region.
• FL-13 (R): Anna Luna, the 2020 nominee in this district, has been declared the winner here, holding off several challengers.

FL-27 (D): Maybe the person at the AP decision desk here is enjoying a power nap, or something, because this one seems very much over and yet we lack a call here. State Sen. Annette Taddeo has a mammoth 69-26 lead over Ken Russell here. The winner takes on Republican freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in this very swingy (Trump 50-49) Miami-area district

OK-Sen: Quick bit of clarification, because the results widget is a bit deceiving. Remember that there are TWO Senate races in Oklahoma. The GOP primary tonight (won earlier by Rep. Markwayne Mullin) is the special election to replace Sen. Jim Inhofe, who is resigning as of January, 2023. Mullin will now face former Oklahoma City Rep. Kendra Horn in what is easily the more competitive of the two races (though it’d be a stretch to call either truly competitive, because Oklahoma).

Meanwhile, if you look at the results page, it has a Democrat named Madison Horn winning the Democratic runoff tonight. But that isn’t to face Mullin, that is to face Sen. Jim Lankford, who is seeking his normal re-election in November, as well.

FL-27 (D): The AP makes their call in favor of state Senator Annette Taddeo, who will now take on freshman GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in one of the more anticipated R-held House races in November.

FL-15 (D): The AP makes a call here for 2020 nominee Alan Cohn, who will face Republican Laurel Lee in November in this 51-48 Trump district.

FL-10 (D): And...wow. Props to Florida (a phrase you won’t see me use often). They managed to get every competitive race counted to the point of projection before New York could even hit their poll closing time (which happened just now). The AP calls this one for gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost, who at 25 will be the youngest member of Congress should he win in November. He will be strongly favored over Republican Calvin Wimbish in this 65-33 Biden seat.

NY-10 (D): We are well over the threshold in this open-seat and hotly-contested Democratic primary. Rep. Mondaire Jones is the nominal incumbent, but he moved a considerable distance to run here and he is a distant third as we speak. Right now, Trump impeachment counsel Daniel Goldman has a 27-22 lead over assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou. Jones is third with 18%.

NY-12 (D): This incumbent-on-incumbent primary between two longtime Democratic veterans of the House is not all that close in the early counting. Rep. Jerry Nadler holds a 56-27 lead over Rep. Carolyn Maloney. Young attorney Suraj Patel, who released a late poll showing him in contention, is a distant third at 16%.

FL-11 (R): I am not an oddsmaker but this had to be the easiest bet of the evening: 

NY-03 (D): We’ve hit the reporting threshold in the open seat in the light-blue 3rd district on Long Island, where the times they are a-changing away from Tom Suozzi. DNC member Robert Zimmerman is currently knockin’ on the House’s door; he’s leading Jon Kaiman 43-22, with 15% reporting.

NY-23 (R): We’ve also hit the threshold in the GOP primary in the dark-red 23rd district in upstate New York, where unfortunately the objectionable Carl Paladino is leading Nick Longworthy 60-40 with 15% reporting. This seat is open with the abrupt retirement of freshman Chris Jacobs.

NY-19 (special): You may have noticed that in the special election for the last few months of service in the very swingy 19th district (left vacant by Antonio Delgado’s promotion to Lt. Governor), the Democrat, Pat Ryan has a pretty commanding lead, 70-30, with 24% reporting! Don’t get too attached to this result, which would be a stunning upset if true. It looks like most of the votes reported so far are from Ulster County, which is Pat Ryan’s home turf. Republican Marc Molinaro would reasonably be expected to pull back into the lead later, though Ryan still seems well positioned to make this race pretty close in the end.

NY-16 (D): Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman faced a credible primary challenge from several suburban county legislators, after his district’s center of gravity shifted quite a bit to the north. Bowman is still holding on pretty easily, though leading Vedat Gashi 63-21 with 20% reporting.

NY-12 (D): Wow, this was very fast (by anyone’s standards, let alone New York’s)! The AP has already called the incumbent-on-incumbent battle royale in favor of Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler, who wound up winning pretty easily over colleague Carolyn Maloney. With 49% reporting, it’s Nadler at 56, Maloney at 25, and Suraj Patel at 18.

NY-04 (D): One more open seat in a light blue Long Island district to mention, this time the 4th district, where Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice surprisingly retired. This one didn’t turn out to be too competitive, though, with former Hempstead supervisor Laura Gillen leading county legislator Carrie Solages 68-17 with 17% reporting in the Democratic primary.

NY-10 (D): Meanwhile, in the 10th district in Manhattan (open because Reps. Nadler and Maloney both insisted on taking the 12th), we’ve got a super close race, still not decided even with 99% reporting. Former federal prosecutor Daniel Goldman currently leads state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou 25.2 to 24.2 (or 14,142 votes to 13,554 if you prefer.) They’re followed by Rep. Mondaire Jones at 18%, who has to be kicking himself for making the trek down to the city instead of facing off against Democratic colleague Sean Patrick Maloney in the suburbs.

NY-17 (D): Speaking of which, Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s primary challenge from state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (whose own district overlaps none of the 17th), which came about after Maloney bumped Mondaire Jones out of this turf, didn’t turn out to be too eventful. The AP has called this race for Maloney, who currently leads Biaggi 66-34 with 41% reporting.

OK-02 (R): Here’s the last loose end from the Sooner State; the AP has called the Republican runoff for this open seat in favor of ex-state Sen. Josh Brecheen, who defeats state Rep. Avery Frix, and will undoubtedly be headed to the House in this dark red district.

The liveblog continues here.

If it’s Tuesday, it must be time for DK Elections’ coverage of yet another primary election night! Tonight, the bulk of the action is in the Midwest, with primaries (and one special Congressional election) in Minnesota and Wisconsin. But we also already have results streaming in from Connecticut and Vermont. A reminder: we wait till at least 10% of the expected turnout has reported, so our readers don’t have to try to contend with drawing conclusions based on dozens of votes. Another reminder that even when we start to report results, early voting and regional politics can make early numbers misleading (see: last week in Arizona). So, patience, more than ever, is a virtue!

VT-AL (D): In a race that has already been counting votes for two hours, we got a call in the past 20 minutes. State legislator Becca Balint has built a pretty convincing 62-36 lead over Lt. Gov. Molly Gray, and has been declared the winner by AP. Given the blueness of Vermont, her nomination is almost certainly tantamount to victory, making her both the first woman and the first LGBTQ member of the Vermont federal delegation.

WA-03: And here is a little housekeeping from last week, and a bit of breaking news: Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, considered a rising star in the GOP until voting her conscience on the impeachment of Donald Trump, has conceded defeat in her bid for re-election. Democrat Marie Perez had already clinched one of the two general election slots (remember that Washington utilizes a top two open primary), and now Herrera Beutler is effectively admitting that MAGA extremist Joe Kent will claim the other spot.

WA-SoS: A little bit more housekeeping, and a bit of history. For the first time in more than a generation, the state of Washington will elect someone to the pivotal office of Secretary of State that is not a Republican. Democratic incumbent Steve Hobbs (who was appointed to the position when Republican Kim Wyman took a position in the Biden administration) was already declared for the general election last week, but now Independent Julie Anderson has edged out a trio of Republicans to claim the second slot in the general election.

MN-05 (D): We’ve not hit the threshold (>10% reporting) in one of the marquee primaries of the night, and it is as close as was expected. Rep. Ilhan Omar has just a 53-46 lead over fellow Democrat Don Samuels with about 16,000 votes tabulated.

MN-01 (Special): This is worth noting, before the night truly gets underway. Minnesota election officials yesterday warned that the vote count here would be slowed by the fact that, because this is being held under the 2011-2021 lines, it is being tabulated completely separately from the other races on the ballot. Therefore, the special election results will be released separately, county-by-county, when all votes in that county are in. So, if you’re waiting on this one, get comfy.

WI-Sen (D): The AP has called this race for Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. This primary, admittedly, became much clearer over the past two weeks, as Barnes saw his three chief rivals for the nomination (Tom Nelson, Sarah Godlewski, and Alex Lasry) drop out of the race and endorse him. He goes on to a critical race in November against two-term incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, who is also easily leading his primary tonight.

WI-Gov (R): We’ve just hit the threshold here, and holy crap—this one is tight. Trump-endorsed (and you really need to read why he endorsed in this race) Tim Michels leads former state Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch by just 80 votes out of 67,000 votes cast.

MN-05 (D): More votes have been counted, and the Democratic primary here is rapidly tightening. With about half the expected vote counted, Rep. Ilhan Omar’s lead over Don Samuels has shrunk to a 51-48 margin, a raw vote margin just under 2000 votes.

It is now Wednesday on the East Coast, and one of the biggest primary nights of the year is starting to wind down, save for some late vote counting out west and one stubborn big race in the Great Lakes. Let’s recap, shall we?

• Kansas: The story of the night, as an attempt by pro-life conservatives to empower the overwhelmingly GOP state legislature with the right to regulate abortions in the state failed badly. With over 90% of the votes counted, the initiative is failing 40-60.
• MI-03 (R): No winner here yet, and this one is getting interesting. Trump endorsed John Gibbs now has a 52-48 lead over Republican Rep. Peter Meijer, as Trump sought vengeance for Meijer’s impeachment vote. Two other impeachment voters (Jaime Herrera Beutler and Don Newhouse, both of Washington) appear to be surviving their primary challenges, at least for now.
• MI-Gov: This one is set for November, as Republican talk show host (and very late Trump endorsee) Tudor Dixon will take on incumbent Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
• MO-Sen: Another on that is set for November, as Republican AG Eric Schmitt will take on Democratic businesswoman Trudy Busch Valentine.
• AZ-Gov: This one still has several miles to go, given the disparities between early votes and day-of votes. But, for the moment, former state official Karrin Taylor Robson has a 49-41 lead over Trump-endorsed former television anchor Kari Lake. On the Democratic side, secretary of state Katie Hobbs was an easy winner.
• AZ-Sen: This one looks like it will be a close one, and a two-horse race at this point. Trump-endorsed techbro Blake Masters has a 35-31 lead over businessman Jim Lamon. The winner takes on freshman Sen. Mark Kelly, who was unopposed.

MI-03 (R): This one isn’t done yet, but the cake is starting to feel a little baked. John Gibbs now has a raw vote lead approaching 3700 votes, which feels like a bit of a climb for Rep. Peter Meijer.

Kansas: As if the loss of the abortion initiative wasn’t painful enough for Kansas Republicans, they just took another kick to the teeth. Notorious Trumpy Republican Kris Kobach, who was last seen coughing up the governor’s mansion for the GOP in 2018 to Democrat Laura Kelly, has won the nomination for Attorney General, narrowly beating Kellie Warren (42-38). Kobach will take on Democrat Chris Mann in November.

TX-34: Polls have closed in the special election in Texas’s 34th district in the Rio Grande Valley, an open seat left vacant by the resignation of Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela, and where Republicans have made a big push for a half-year rental of this light-blue seat. 

We’re also still waiting, one hour post-closing, for enough votes to be counted in South Carolina for us to be able to say anything conclusive about the two races we’re watching there, the Republican primaries in SC-01 and SC-07.

SC-Gov: One race that’s of mild interest to us (it’s unfortunately unlikely to be competitive in the general election) is the Democratic primary in the South Carolina gubernatorial race, where the winner faces Republican incumbent Henry McMaster. Very early votes made this race look competitive for state Rep. Mia McLeod, but now that we’ve hit 10% ‘estimated vote counted,’ an upset is looking less likely: ex-U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham leads McLeod 60-28.

SC-07: We’ve also hit the threshold in the Republican primary in the 7th congressional district in the area around Myrtle Beach; this race features an incumbent, Tom Rice, but who voted in favor of impeachment of Donald Trump despite being in a dark red district. That’s going over about as well as you’d expect, as Rice’s leading opponent (and Trump endorsee) state Rep. Russell Fry leads Rice by a wide margin, 45-30. South Carolina, of course, is subject to a runoff requirement, so Fry and Rice may need to face off again without the clutter of multiple other candidates; what we’ll be watching tonight is more a question of Fry vs. the 50% mark.

TX-34: We’re suddenly up to 34% ‘estimated vote counted’ in the special election in Texas’s 34th district, and it’s going somewhat better than expected for the Democratic candidate here, former Cameron Co. Commissioner Dan Sanchez. He leads Republican candidate Mayra Flores 48-45, with another Democrat, Rene Coronado, taking an additional 6. Keep in mind that this race is an all-party primary where the race only ends if one candidate finishes over 50%; if not, the top 2 finishers (who’d naturally be Sanchez and Flores) meet again at a later date (yet to be determined). 

TX-34: One hazard of liveblogging is the risk of a lead change seconds after you hit ‘post.’ Republican Maya Flores has nudged into the lead for now, with 36% ‘reporting,’ but it’s a slim 46.8-46.3 edge (and, again, short of the 50% mark either candidate needs to win outright).

SC-01: And we’ve hit the threshold in the Republican primary in South Carolina’s 1st congressional district in the Charleston area, with 13% ‘in.’ It’s not a blowout for incumbent Nancy Mace, but she’s still clocking in above the 50% mark she needs to avoid a runoff. She’s at 56, to 41 for ex-state Rep. Katie Arrington, the Trump endorsee in this race whom you might remember from 2018, when she beat incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford in the primary and then tanked in the general, losing to Democrat Joe Cunningham. (While Mace didn’t vote to impeach Trump, she didn’t show the proper level of fealty to him post-Jan. 6, hence the opposition.)

SC-01, SC-07: Start cuing up “For Whom the Bell Tolls” for Tom Rice. (Or maybe “Hell’s Bells” if you prefer. Just something foreboding that has something to do with bells.) Russell Fry is now leading Rice 49-25 in the 7th district GOP primary with an estimated 49% in; if Fry tops 50%, no runoff is necessary and Fry advances to the general election. Meanwhile, in the 1st district, incumbent Nancy Mace’s lead is looking less imposing; she currently leads Katie Arrington 53-45.

TX-34: With 60% of the vote estimated to have been counted, in the Texas special election the Republican, Mayra Flores, is currently at 49% to 45% for Democrat Dan Sanchez, with 4% for another Democrat. Better news for Sanchez is that much of the remaining votes to be counted are in the two most populous counties in the district (Cameron and Hidalgo, in the Rio Grande Valley, as opposed to the redder counties further north). While it doesn’t seem likely that there’s enough there to pull Sanchez back into the lead, the real race here, as with SC-07, is Flores vs. the 50% mark; if she tops that, she wins without a second round.

ME-SD-07: One minor piece of good news is that Democratic candidate Nicole Grohoski appears to have won a special election for the remainder of the term in Maine’s vacant 7th Senate district, in the rural area near Acadia National Park. This is a district that Joe Biden won 57-40, but for now Grohoski’s currently running ahead of that benchmark at 61-39.

TX-34: Well, those late votes in Cameron County didn’t help much; Flores actually pulled into the lead in Cameron County (where Brownsville is) with the latest dump — only 47.0 to 46.9, but that’s enough to push her total CD-wide to 49.8% (compared to 44.5% for Sanchez). The AP is estimating 65% reporting but this may be off; there aren’t actually a lot of precincts remaining.

The liveblog continues here.