Morning Digest: Elections chief who advanced the Big Lie launches bid for West Virginia governor

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

WV-Gov, WV-Sen: Secretary of State Mac Warner, who runs West Virginia's elections even as he's helped spread election conspiracy theories, announced Tuesday that he was joining the 2024 primary to succeed his fellow Republican, termed-out Gov. Jim Justice.

Warner kicked off his campaign with a speech emphasizing service in the Army's Judge Advocate General's Corps and declaring, "It is time to call-out the radical, woke, dangerous and ridiculous policies of the 'progressive' Administration in Washington, D.C." West Virginia Metro News' Brad McElhinny notes that in that address, the secretary of state "did not mention issues specific to West Virginia."

Warner, who won his job in 2016 by narrowly unseating Democratic incumbent Natalie Tennant, was respected by fellow election officials heading into the 2020 contest for his efforts to combat misinformation, but that very much changed after Election Day. That's because Warner, who had just decisively defeated Tennant in their rematch, spent the next weeks backing up lies about Donald Trump's defeat.

Warner appeared at a December "March for Trump" rally in the state, where he appeared to be holding up a "Stop the Steal" sign. He later said he didn't actually think he'd hoisted that particular banner, but there's no question the secretary of state told Trump's fans at that gathering that it was "so important to keep him in office."

Warner also supported Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's failed lawsuit to invalidate Joe Biden's win in four swing states. While he insisted he was concerned whether changes states made in how late mail-in ballots could be received were constitutional, Warner also spread lies alleging, "When cardboard is put over windows, when two cases of ballots come out, when ballots are pre-marked or don't have folds on it—there's all those things. Those are red flags that need to be looked at and not just discounted, and that's what the mainstream media wants us to do."

Warner the following year was the one person at the National Association of Secretaries of State meeting to vote against a bipartisan proposal by his colleagues to set a standard for election audits, and he soon withdrew from the group in protest. (Missouri's Jay Ashcroft, who is also likely to run in 2024 for governor of his own state, abstained.)

In a recent interview with the New York Times, Warner acknowledged Biden "was elected," but he still questioned if that contest was fairly run. He also argued that congressional Democrats' efforts to expand voting rights and the U.S. Supreme Court's refusal to hear Paxton's suit are "what spurred on the Jan. 6 people."

Warner joins a GOP primary that includes Del. Moore Capito and auto dealer Chris Miller, both of who come from prominent Mountain State political families. Capito is the son of Sen. Shelly Moore Capito and grandson of the late Gov. Arch Moore, while Miller's mother is Rep. Carol Miller. Warner also has some notable relatives: His wife, Debbie Warner, was recently elected to the state House, while his brother Monty Warner badly lost the 2004 gubernatorial race to Democrat Joe Manchin. Another brother currently leads the West Virginia Economic Development Authority.

The contest to replace Justice could expand further, as Auditor JB McCuskey has talked about getting in. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who lost the 2018 Senate race to Manchin, also put out a video Tuesday reiterating he was "still evaluating my options as to whether I'm going to run for U.S. Senate or for governor … We're coming soon." While Morrisey didn't indicate which office he was leaning towards, McElhinny noted that the attorney general's message urging voters not to "settle for second best" went up as Warner was still delivering his announcement speech.

The Downballot

 Hell yeah! Election season is already here, and it's off to an amazing start with Democrats' huge flip of a critical seat in the Virginia state Senate, which kicks off this week's episode of The Downballot. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dissect what Aaron Rouse's victory means for November (abortion is still issue #1!) when every seat in the legislature will be on the ballot. They also discuss big goings-on in two U.S. Senate races: California, where Rep. Katie Porter just became the first Democrat to kick off a bid despite Sen. Dianne Feinstein's lack of a decision about her own future, and Michigan, which just saw veteran Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announce her retirement.

The Davids also delve back into a topic that frequently came up last year: redistricting. Didn't every state just draw new maps? you might ask. Yes! But many have to do so again, thanks to court rulings. Unfortunately, this gives Republicans in North Carolina and Ohio the opportunity to gerrymander once more, though there's an outside chance some Southern states could be required to draw new congressional districts where Black voters can elect their candidates of choice.

New episodes of The Downballot come out every Thursday morning. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time.

Senate

AZ-Sen: The Democratic firm Blueprint Polling has released numbers showing conspiracy theorist Kari Lake, who was the 2022 Republican nominee for governor, leading Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego 36-32 as independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema grabs 14%. None of these people have said they'll be running for the Senate in 2024, though Gallego has been hiring staff for a likely campaign. The firm says this poll was done "with no input or funding from any candidate, committee, or interest group."

CA-Sen: Multiple media outlets reported Wednesday that longtime Rep. Barbara Lee told the Congressional Black Caucus she planned to run for the Senate seat held by her fellow Democrat, incumbent Dianne Feinstein, but Lee herself did not commit to anything when reporters asked about her 2024 plans. "What I said was that I'm very sensitive and honoring Senator Feinstein," said Lee, who represents a heavily Democratic bastion that's home to Oakland and Berkeley. (Joe Biden performed better in Lee's new 12th District than he did in any of California's other 51 House seats.)

Lee, who has long been a national progressive favorite, told Politico in a separate interview she'd say what she's doing "when it's appropriate," adding, "I'm not really doing anything except letting colleagues know that there'll be a time to talk about the Senate race." The congresswoman also did not reveal if she was willing to challenge Feinstein if the 89-year-old incumbent surprised the political world and ran again. Rep. Katie Porter, a fellow Democrat who represents an Orange County seat, launched a bid on Tuesday and currently has the field to herself.

MD-Sen: Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin tells Politico he'll decide "probably in February or March" if he'll seek a fourth term.

MI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Perry Johnson, a Republican who failed to make the Republican primary ballot for governor last year, confirms he's interested in running for this open seat but has no timeline for deciding. Johnson spent $7 million of his own money last cycle before election authorities disqualified him after he and several other GOP contenders fell victim to a fraudulent signature scandal, and he unsuccessfully sued to try to get his name included. The ever-modest Johnson then began talking about a 2024 run for president after he decided to pass on a write-in effort.

Former Rep. Fred Upton, who was not on the 2022 ballot for anything by choice, meanwhile didn't quite dismiss a Senate campaign but sounds unlikely to go for it. The Republican noted he was 69 in his interview with MSNBC's Andrew Mitchell (the relevant portion begins at the 4:45 point) and said he was "probably not a candidate." Mitchell responded by noting he hadn't ruled it out, to which Upton replied, "I'm glad to be out of the Congress this last week, haven't thought about my future quite yet ... I guess you could say I've not ruled it out, but I'm really probably most inclined not to do so."

For the Democrats, Rep. Elissa Slotkin on Tuesday publicly confirmed for the first time she was "seriously considering" running to succeed retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, though she also didn't have a timeline to decide. Attorney General Dana Nessel, however, played down the possibility she'd run, declaring she believes she could "do the most good" in her current post. "That's where I intend to stay," said Nessel.

NE-Sen-B: Gov. Jim Pillen says he'll announce Thursday morning whom he'll appoint to succeed Ben Sasse, a fellow Republican who has resigned from the Senate to become president of the University of Florida.

Governors

KY-Gov: Former Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, who currently has the airwaves to herself ahead of the May Republican primary, is running a new ad focused on combating fentanyl.

LA-Gov: East Baton Rouge District Attorney Hillar Moore, a Democrat who is considering entering this year's race for governor, tells LaPolitics' Jeremy Alford, "I expect to have a decision in the next few weeks or sooner." Alford also writes that state Democratic chair Katie Bernhardt "sounds as serious as serious can get and will have something to say in a week or so." Bernhardt last week did not rule out a bid last week after her name was included in an unreleased poll.

House

CA-47: Former Rep. Harley Rouda, a Democrat who represented about two-thirds of this constituency from 2019 to 2021, announced Wednesday that he would run for the seat that Democratic incumbent Katie Porter is giving up to campaign for the Senate.

The only other declared candidate so far is former Orange County Republican Party chair Scott Baugh, who narrowly lost to Porter last cycle. This constituency, which includes coastal Orange County and Irvine, supported Biden 54-43, but this historically red area contains plenty of voters who are open to backing Republicans who aren’t named Donald Trump.

Rouda and Baugh previously faced off in the 2018 top-two primary to take on longtime Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in the old 48th District in what turned out to be an expensive and consequential contest. Rouda and another first-time Democratic candidate, Hans Keirstead, spent months competing against the Putin-loving congressman, and it looked likely that one of them would advance to the general election. But everything changed just before the filing deadline when Baugh, who had previously served in the state Assembly in the 1990s, unexpectedly jumped in and threatened to lock Democrats out of the general election.

Baugh, though, was hardly running as a favor to Rohrabacher. The two Republicans used to be friends, and when Baugh began raising money in 2016 for a campaign, Rohrabacher initially took it in stride and said he was "just laying the foundation for a race for Congress when I am no longer a member ... but I don't know when that's going to be." Their relationship publicly collapsed, however, after Baugh refused to actually say he wouldn’t use that cash against the congressman.

Baugh didn’t run for anything in 2016, but he used the money he’d amassed that year for his last-second bid against Rohrabacher two years later. Democratic outside groups scrambled to make sure this nasty intra-party fight didn’t end up hurting their own chances to flip the seat, and the DCCC and House Majority PAC spent about $1.8 million on an effort mostly aimed at attacking Baugh. The DCCC, which supported Rouda, also made an effort to promote a third Republican, little-known candidate John Gabbard, to further splinter the vote.

This expensive undertaking proved to be just enough to avoid a disaster for Democrats in a contest where Rohrabacher, who was in no danger of being eliminated, grabbed first with 30%. Rouda edged out Keirstead 17.3-17.2, while Baugh was right behind with 16%; Gabbard finished with 3%, which may have been enough to hold back Baugh. Rouda went on to score a 54-46 victory over Rohrabacher, who never seemed to take his general election seriously.

Baugh unexpectedly turned down a rematch with Rouda in 2020, and Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel instead stepped up to take on the new congressman. Steel proved to be a much tougher foe than Rohrabacher, and she managed to secure enough voters who’d turned against Trump but still favored Republicans down the ballot: Biden took the 48th 50-48, but Steel unseated Rouda 51-49.

Rouda quickly began running against Steel again, but that was before redistricting scrambled California’s map at the end of 2021. Rouda and Porter initially both planned to run for the new 47th District, and while Rouda had represented considerably more of the redrawn constituency than his former colleague, Porter went into 2022 with a massive financial edge and a national progressive base that allowed her to bring in far more. Rouda soon announced he wouldn’t run for anything that cycle, and Porter went on to beat Baugh 52-48 after a very expensive battle.

NY-03: Prominent Nassau County Republican officials held a press conference Wednesday calling for GOP Rep. George Santos to resign only for the scandal-drenched freshman to immediately say, "I will not." The state Conservative Party, which usually backs Republicans in general elections, also told Santos to get lost; Nick Langworthy, the 23rd District congressman who still leads the state GOP, later said he supported the Nassau County party's anti-Santos declaration.

Still, while there was no reason to think Santos would heed the calls for his departure, his former allies used their gathering to make it clear just what they thought of him. Nassau County GOP chair Joseph Cairo, whose community forms three quarters of the 3rd District (the balance is in Queens) even said that the freshman congressman had personally lied to him about being "a star on the" volleyball team at Baruch College, an institution Santos never attended.

Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, who was elected to the neighboring 4th District last year on the same night as Santos, said he "will not associate with him in Congress and I will encourage other representatives in the House of Representatives to join me in rejecting him." The county GOP even added that it would direct any constituent calls from Santos' district to D'Esposito, while county Executive Bruce Blakeman called the 3rd District congressman "a stain on the House of Representatives."

Speaker Kevin McCarthy, though, showed no interest in pressuring Santos to resign or trying to organize two-thirds of the House to expel him. (The last time this happened was 2002, when Democratic Rep. James Traficant of Ohio was ejected by his colleagues three months after he was found guilty on corruption charges.) McCarthy instead said, "The voters elected him to serve," adding, "Is there a charge against him? In America today, you're innocent until proven guilty."

While McCarthy did declare that Santos, who backed him last week in each of the 15 speakership votes, would not be assigned to any of the top House committees, he made it clear that he'd get to sit on some panels. The speaker, when reminded how Santos had lied about his biography, responded, "Yeah, so did a lot of people here, in the Senate and others, but the one thing I think, it's the voters who made that decision. He has to answer to the voters and the voters can make another decision in two years."

Legislatures

MI State House: Democrats last November flipped the state House to win a 56-54 edge, but Gorchow News Service notes the chamber would become tied for a few months should two members from the Detroit suburbs win their respective mayoral elections this November. State Rep. Kevin Coleman said last month that he would run to lead Westland, while colleague Lori Stone recently filed paperwork for a potential bid for mayor of Warren.  

Democrats would be favored to keep both of their constituencies should any special elections take place. According to data from Dave's Redistricting App, President Joe Biden carried Coleman's 25th House District 59-40, while he racked up an even larger 64-35 margin in Stone's HD-13.

Mayors and County Leaders

Jacksonville, FL Mayor: The two leading Republicans are continuing to attack one another ahead of the March nonpartisan primary, with City Councilwoman LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber's PAC airing a commercial declaring that Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis was "ready to sell out" the city by supporting the privatization of the municipal utility JEA.

"As CEO of the Chamber of Commerce, Davis took over $300,000 from JEA to promote privatization," declares the narrator, who argues this would have raised energy bills. The ad then plays audio of Davis saying, "I think more privatization should take place in the city of Jacksonville." Davis' own PAC recently went up with a commercial labeling Cumber a "fake conservative."

Montgomery County, PA Board of Commissioners: Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro announced Wednesday that he was nominating Montgomery County Board of Commissioners Chair Valerie Arkoosh, a fellow Democrat who succeeded him in 2016 as head of the state's third-largest county, to become the new state human services secretary. Should Arkoosh, who ran an aborted 2022 campaign for the U.S. Senate, be confirmed by two-thirds of the state Senate, it would be up to the County Court judges to pick her replacement on the three-member body.

Arkoosh's planned departure comes ahead of this year's local elections in this suburban Philadelphia county. All three Commission seats are elected countywide, and voters in November can select up to two candidates. However, each party can only nominate two candidates this May, so the body will wind up with a 2-1 split no matter what.

Republicans spent generations as the dominant party in Montgomery County, and they continued to control the Commission into the 21st century even as local voters began favoring Democratic presidential candidates. In 2011, though, Shapiro led his party to its first-ever majority, and there's no reason to think they're in danger of losing it this fall in what's become a heavily blue area.  

Prosecutors and Sheriffs

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney: The Republican-led state Senate voted Wednesday to indefinitely postpone its impeachment trial against Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a decision that came weeks after the state's Commonwealth Court ruled that state House Republicans failed to demonstrate any of the legally required standards for "misbehavior in office" in their articles of impeachment. That ruling did not order the upper chamber to halt the planned Jan. 18 trial, and the House GOP has not yet said if it will appeal the decision.

Morning Digest: Democrats and Republicans unite to elect an independent as speaker … in Pennsylvania

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

PA State House: In a pair of true surprises, moderate Democrat Mark Rozzi was elected speaker of the Pennsylvania state House Tuesday just before he announced that he’d lead the chamber as an independent.

Rozzi, who will be the first non-aligned speaker in the history of the body, defeated Republican state Rep. Carl Metzgar 115-85 after Democratic leader Joanna McClinton threw her support behind him rather than submit her own name. Following that endorsement, the entire Democratic caucus supported Rozzi, while 16 Republicans crossed over to back him. Rozzi’s win comes after two months of uncertainty about which party would lead the chamber, though few observers guessed that the answer would be neither.

Democrats, including Rozzi, won 102 of the 203 seats in the House on Nov. 8, which appeared to set them up for their first majority since the 2010 GOP wave. However, Democrats could only claim 99 members because state Rep. Tony DeLuca was re-elected a month after he died, while fellow Pittsburgh-area Democrats Summer Lee and Austin Davis resigned weeks later to prepare to assume their new roles as congresswoman and lieutenant governor, respectively. Republicans therefore began Tuesday with a 101 to 99 advantage, but no one knew if that would be enough for the party to elect a speaker.

Indeed, a deadlock appeared certain after one Republican joined the Democratic caucus in voting to adjourn during the middle of the day―a tied vote that failed because the remaining 100 Republicans were opposed. Unexpectedly, though, multiple Republicans and Democrats soon nominated Rozzi, whose name hadn’t previously been seriously mentioned. Rozzi prevailed with the support of all of the Democrats and a minority of Republicans, including Bryan Cutler, who had been speaker going into November’s elections.

So, what happens next? First, there will almost certainly be a vacant GOP-held seat before long, as state Rep. Lynda Schlegel Culver is the favorite to win the Jan. 31 special election for a dark red state Senate district. Culver’s 108th House District supported Donald Trump 65-33 in 2020, but her absence could deny her party a crucial vote in the closely divided lower chamber until a special election could take place. PennLive.com says such a race likely wouldn’t take place before May 16, which is the same date as Pennsylvania's regular statewide primary.

As for the three vacant Democratic constituencies, both parties agree that a Feb. 7 special will go forward in DeLuca’s HD-32, which went for Joe Biden 62-36. In Pennsylvania special elections, the parties, rather than voters, choose nominees: Democrats have selected local party official Joe McAndrew, while Republicans are fielding pastor Clay Walker.

There’s no agreement, however, about when the contests for Lee’s and Davis’ constituencies will take place. That’s because legislative special elections are scheduled by the leader of the chamber with the vacant seat, but there was no speaker between late November, when the last session ended, and Tuesday. That duty, as a result, fell to the majority leader, and both McClinton and Cutler claimed that title in December, issuing dueling writs of election: McClinton set these two specials to also take place on Feb. 7, while Cutler picked May 16.

Cutler filed a lawsuit to block McClinton’s schedule, but the Pennsylvania Department of State is going forward with February specials right now. There’s no question that Democrats will hold Lee’s HD-34, which Biden took 80-19, but the president pulled off a smaller 58-41 win in Davis’ HD-35.

Democrats in the former district have picked Swissvale Borough Council President Abigail Salisbury, who will go up against kickboxing instructor Robert Pagane. The Democratic nominee to succeed Davis is Matt Gergely, who serves as finance director for the community of McKeesport. Local Republicans are running Don Nevills, who lost to Davis 66-34 in November; Nevills himself has said in his social media posts that the special will be Feb. 7.

P.S. Rozzi’s win makes this the second time in the 21st century that Pennsylvania Democrats successfully maneuvered to stop Republicans from taking the speakership. In 2006, Democrats likewise won a 102-101 majority, but one of their members, Thomas Caltagirone, soon announced he’d cross party lines to keep Republican John Perzel on as speaker instead of electing Democrat Bill DeWeese. DeWeese, who was speaker in 1994 when Democrats last controlled the chamber, ended up nominating Republican Dennis O'Brien rather than put his name forward; O’Brien ultimately won 105-97.

Democrats secured a workable majority the following year, and Keith McCall became the party’s first, and to date only, speaker since DeWeese. In a strange twist, DeWeese and Perzel went on to become cellmates after being convicted in separate corruption cases. Incidentally, one House Democrat heavily involved in the plan to make O'Brien speaker was Josh Shapiro, now the governor-elect of Pennsylvania.

Senate

AZ-Sen: Doug Ducey, whose tenure as governor ended on Monday, said before Christmas he was "not running for the United States Senate" and that "it's not something I'm considering." And just like two years ago, Ducey's fellow Republicans are not taking this seemingly unequivocal statement as final: Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, who is another Republican on Donald Trump's shit list, instead told The Hill, "I hope that he'll get in."

Former state Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, who narrowly lost last year's primary to succeed Ducey, may be more interested in campaigning for the Senate seat held by Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema. Vox's Christian Paz writes that Taylor Robson "told me she is not ruling out running for statewide office again," though it's not clear if the former regent said anything about the Senate in particular.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Ruben Gallego released late-December numbers from Public Policy Polling showing a tight race whether or not Sinema runs. The survey found Republican Kari Lake, who continues to deny her loss to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs, edging out Gallego 41-40, with Sinema grabbing 13%. When the incumbent is left out, however, it's Gallego who leads Lake 48-47. The congressman has made it clear he's likely to run, while NBC reported last month that Lake is trying to recruit Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb rather than campaign herself.

The poll was conducted days before The Daily Beast's Sam Brodey reported that Sinema's office had a 37-page guide for staffers that includes tasks that "appear to go right up to the line of what Senate ethics rules allow, if not over." Among other things, Brodey writes that Sinema requires her subordinates perform personal tasks for her, including arranging massages and buying groceries on their own dime, which she later reimburses them for.

The Senate's ethics handbook, though, specifies that "staff are compensated for the purpose of assisting Senators in their official legislative and representational duties, and not for the purpose of performing personal or other non-official activities for themselves or on behalf of others." Sinema's spokesperson told Brodey that "the alleged information—sourced from anonymous quotes and a purported document I can't verify—is not in line with official guidance from Sen. Sinema's office and does not represent official policies of Sen. Sinema's office."

IN-Sen, IN-Gov: Bellwether Research released mid-December numbers before Christmas for the 2024 GOP primaries for the Senate and governor: The firm previously worked for former Gov. Mitch Daniels, who is a prospective Senate candidate, but a Daniels consultant tells Politico's Adam Wren that this survey was done without his knowledge.

The firm tested out hypothetical Senate scenarios with and without Daniels, who just completed his tenure as president of Purdue University. We'll start with the former matchup:

former Purdue University President Mitch Daniels: 32

Rep. Jim Banks: 10

former Rep. Trey Hollingsworth: 9

Rep. Victoria Spartz: 7

Attorney General Todd Rokita: 7

Someone Else: 6

In the Daniels-free scenario, Rokita leads Banks 16-14 as Spartz and Hollingsworth grab 12% and 11%, respectively.

Spartz herself quickly publicized her own numbers from Response:AI that put Daniels in front with 35% as she and Banks deadlocked 14-14 for second. That survey placed Hollingsworth at 6% while two people who were not tested by Bellwether, 2022 House nominee Jennifer-Ruth Green and disgraced former Attorney General Curtis Hill, took 4% and 2%. Wren recently named Hill, whom we hadn't heard mentioned for Senate, as a possible candidate, though there's been no sign yet that he's thinking about campaigning.

None of the other Republicans tested in either poll are currently running for the Senate either, and Daniels' ultimate decision may deter some of them from getting in. Indeed, an unnamed person close to Spartz told Politico that she may decide not to go up against the former governor: The congresswoman, writes Wren, "declined to comment on that question, but told POLITICO she is seeking a meeting with Daniels before making her decision."

A Banks ally, though, insists his man "won't make his decision based on what others do and I think the poll numbers released by Daniels and Spartz will only embolden him to run."

Bellwether also posted numbers for the GOP race to succeed termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb:

Sen. Mike Braun: 25

Attorney General Todd Rokita: 9

Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch: 7

former Rep. Trey Hollingsworth: 6

Businessman Eric Doden: 3

Someone Else: 9

Braun, Crouch, and Doden are currently running.

Governors

KY-Gov: State Rep. Savannah Maddox announced days before Christmas that she was dropping out of the packed May Republican primary to face Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear.

An unnamed GOP source soon told the Lexington Herald Leader they believed Maddox's departure means that Papa John's founder John Schnatter "could get in the race, since he's got the resources and with Savannah not in the race it could open up a lane." Schnatter, who resigned as board chairman in 2018 after news broke that he'd used racist language, has not taken any obvious steps toward running ahead of Friday's filing deadline.

Self-funder Kelly Craft, meanwhile, is not waiting until the field fully takes shape to go up with the first TV campaign ad of the contest, which the paper says ran for $114,000 from Dec. 27 to Jan. 3. Craft uses the message to tout her roots growing up on a farm in Barren County in the south-central party of the state, and she goes on to tout how she went on to become ambassador to the United Nations. The ad shows photos of Craft with Donald Trump, who is supporting Attorney General Daniel Cameron for the GOP nod.  

MS-Gov: The Daily Journal reported before Christmas that Secretary of State Michael Watson is indeed considering taking on Gov. Tate Reeves in this August's Republican primary. Watson and other potential contenders have until the Feb. 1 filing deadline to make up their minds, but there's one name we can already cross off. While former state Rep. Robert Foster, who took third in 2019, reportedly was thinking about another campaign over the summer, he announced last week that he'd instead run for a seat on the DeSoto County Board of Supervisors.

NC-Gov, NC-??: The conservative Washington Examiner relayed in mid-December that former Rep. Mark Walker is considering seeking the Republican nomination for governor or to return to the House after his party crafts a new gerrymander. Walker last cycle campaigned for the Senate even though Donald Trump tried to persuade him to drop down and run for the lower chamber, but he earned just 9% of the primary vote for his stubbornness.

House

MD-05: Veteran Rep. Steny Hoyer told CNN Sunday that he hadn't ruled out seeking re-election in 2024 even though he's no longer part of the Democratic leadership. "I may. I may," the incumbent said about waging another run.

MD-08: Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin said last week that he'd "been diagnosed with Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma, which is a serious but curable form of cancer." Raskin added that he was "about to embark on a course of chemo-immunotherapy on an outpatient basis," and that "[p]rognosis for most people in my situation is excellent after four months of treatment." The congressman also said he planned to keep working during this time, and he was present Tuesday for the opening of the 118th Congress.  

NY-03: At this point in the George Santos saga, his entirely fictional life story is almost beside the point: When he's called on any of his lies, he just lies some more—it's pathological. But that same reckless behavior is also why the new Republican congressman-to-be is in serious legal jeopardy, at the local, state, federal, and, amazingly, international levels. And because of that, he's exceedingly unlikely to serve out a full term. So what happens if he resigns?

In short, there would be a special election, but in a break with past practice, we'd immediately know when it would take place—and it would happen quickly. Governors in New York previously had wide latitude over when to call elections to fill vacant posts, both for Congress and state legislature, and disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo notoriously abused this power, frequently delaying specials when it suited him.

But in 2021, as state law expert Quinn Yeargain explains, lawmakers finally passed legislation to correct this problem, which Cuomo signed shortly before resigning. Now, Gov. Kathy Hochul would be required to call a special election within 10 days of Santos' seat becoming vacant, and that election would have to take place 70 to 80 days afterward. This law has already come into play multiple times, including for two congressional special elections that took place last year.

One thing hasn't changed, though: There still would be no primaries. Instead, as per usual, nominations for Democrats and Republicans alike would be decided by small groups of party insiders. The actual election would, however, be hotly contested. While Joe Biden would have carried New York's 3rd District, which is based on the North Shore of Long Island, by a 54-45 margin, according to our calculations, Republican Lee Zeldin almost certainly won it in last year's race for governor. Santos dispatched Democrat Robert Zimmerman 52-44 after Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi left the seat open to pursue his own unsuccessful gubernatorial bid.

NY-17: Former Rep. Mondaire Jones told NY1 before Christmas that he was not ruling out seeking the Democratic nomination to take on the new Republican incumbent, Mike Lawler. Jones unsuccessfully decided to run in New York City last year in order to avoid a primary against DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, who himself went on to lose to Lawler, but he made it clear a future campaign would take place in the area he'd represented. "I've also learned my lesson, and that is home for me is in the Hudson Valley," Jones said.

VA-04: Jennifer McClellan beat her fellow state senator, conservative Joe Morrissey, in an 85-14 landslide to win the Democratic nomination in the Dec. 19 firehouse primary to succeed the late Rep. Donald McEachin. McClellan should have no trouble defeating Republican nominee Leon Benjamin, who badly lost to McEachin in 2020 and 2022, in the Feb. 21 special election for this 67-32 Biden seat; McClellan's win would make her the first Black woman to represent Virginia in Congress.

WA-03: Democrats will still have election conspiracy theorist Joe Kent to kick around this cycle, as the 2022 GOP nominee declared before Christmas, "I'm running again in 2024."

DCCC: House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries announced ahead of Christmas that the new DCCC chair would be Rep. Suzan DelBene, who represents a Washington seat that Joe Biden carried 64-33. Jeffries' decision came weeks after House Democrats voted 166-38 to give the caucus' leader the opportunity to select the head of the DCCC rather than have the chair be elected by the full body. The new rule still requires members approve the choice, and they ratified DelBene two days after she was picked.

Attorneys General and Secretaries of State

AZ-AG: Democrat Kris Mayes' narrow win over election denier Abe Hamadeh was affirmed after a recount concluded last week, and Mayes was sworn in as attorney general on Monday. The Democrat's margin dropped from 511 to 280 votes; most of this difference came from dark red Pinal County, which said it had initially failed to count over 500 ballots because of "human error." Hamadeh characteristically refused to accept his defeat and announced Tuesday he was "filing a 'Motion for New Trial.'"

Judges

NY Court of Appeals: Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul nominated Hector LaSalle, an appeals court judge, to fill the vacant post of chief judge on New York's highest court just before the holidays, but her decision was immediately met with fierce resistance by state senators in her own party, 14 of whom have already publicly come out against the choice.

LaSalle, who was named to the Appellate Division by disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2014, has compiled what City & State described as one of the "most conservative" records of any appellate judge in the state. Progressives have raised serious alarms over his hostility toward criminal defendants, labor unions, and especially reproductive rights: A group of law professors have pointed to a 2017 decision LaSalle signed on to that helped shield a network of so-called "crisis pregnancy centers" (which try to dissuade women from getting abortions) from an investigation by the state attorney general.

At stake is more than LaSalle's promotion, though: The seven-member top court, known as the Court of Appeals, has for several years been in the grips of a reactionary four-judge majority that has ruled against victims of police misconduct, workers seeking compensation for injuries on the job, and tenants who'd been overcharged by their landlords. Most notoriously, this quartet—all appointed by Cuomo—struck down new congressional and legislative maps passed by Democratic lawmakers last year on extremely questionable grounds and ordered that a Republican judge in upstate New York redraw them.

Leading this coalition was Chief Judge Janet DiFiore, who unexpectedly announced her resignation last year. That vacancy has given Hochul the chance to reshape the court, but instead she's tapped someone who appears poised to continue DiFiore's legacy. But while judicial confirmations in New York are normally sleepy affairs, a large number of senators—who'd be responsible for voting on LaSalle's nomination—immediately denounced the choice.

That chorus of opposition hit a crucial threshold shortly before the New Year when state Sen. Mike Gianaris, a member of leadership, became the 11th Democrat to say he would vote against LaSalle. With 42 Democrats in the 63-member upper chamber but only 28 still open to Hochul's pick, the governor would now have to rely on the support of Republicans to confirm LaSalle. None, however, have yet come out in favor.

There's no definite timeline for confirmation hearings or a vote on LaSalle's nomination, but if Hochul were to withdraw his name, she'd be able to choose from a list of six other candidates vetted by the state's Commission on Judicial Nomination. A coalition of progressive groups previously endorsed three individuals on that list while calling three others, including LaSalle, "unacceptable" (a seventh option was unrated). If instead LaSalle were voted down by the Senate, the entire process would start over again, with the commission once again reviewing potential candidates.

WI Supreme Court: Judge Everett Mitchell, a progressive candidate for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court this spring, was accused by his then-wife of sexual assault during their 2010 divorce proceeding, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Dan Bice reported on Tuesday. Mitchell was never charged with any wrongdoing and has denied the allegations, while his ex-wife, Merrin Guice Gill said her former spouse "should be evaluated on the work he has done and the work he is doing as a judge" rather than on her past accusations.

However, Guice Gill "declined to say whether she stood by the abuse allegations," telling Bice, "I'm not going to respond to that." During her divorce, Bice writes that she told the court that Mitchell had "undressed her and had sex with her without consent shortly after she took a sleeping pill" in 2007 and also provided documents showing she had informed both her therapist and a police officer about the alleged incident shortly afterwards. The accusations came up when she contacted police about a possible custody dispute involving the couple's daughter, but she declined to press charges, saying that she "was only concerned with her daughter's whereabouts."

Mitchell is one of two liberals seeking a spot on the Supreme Court, along with Judge Janet Protasiewicz. Two conservatives are also running, former Justice Dan Kelly and Judge Jennifer Dorow. All candidates will appear together on an officially nonpartisan primary ballot on Feb. 21, with the top two vote-getters advancing to an April 4 general election. The seat in question is being vacated by conservative Justice Pat Roggensack; should progressives win, they'd take control of the court from the current 4-3 conservative majority.

Legislatures

AK State House: A judge ruled ahead of Christmas that far-right state Rep. David Eastman's membership in the Oath Keepers does not preclude him from serving in elected office even though the state constitution prevents anyone from holding office who "advocates, or who aids or belongs to any party or association which advocates the overthrow by force or violence of the United States."

Goriune Dudukgian, the attorney representing an Eastman constituent who sued to block him from holding office, said Tuesday his camp would not appeal. No one has formed a majority coalition in the Alaska State House in the almost two months since the election.

NY State Senate: Democrats learned ahead of Christmas that they'd maintained a two-thirds supermajority in the upper chamber after a judge ruled that incumbent John Mannion had fended off Republican Rebecca Shiroff by 10 votes in his Syracuse-based seat. Shiroff conceded the contest, and Mannion's term began New Year's Day.

OH State House: While Democrats are deep in the minority in the Ohio state House, the caucus joined with enough GOP members on Tuesday to elect Republican Jason Stephens as speaker over Derek Merrin, who began the day as the heavy favorite to lead the chamber. Cleveland.com's Jeremy Pelzer writes, "Stephens, while conservative, is not considered to be as far to the right as Merrin."

The GOP enjoys a 67-32 majority, so a Merrin speakership appeared likely after he won November's caucus vote against Stephens. Pelzer writes that in the ensuing weeks there were "rumblings since then about some sort of challenge to Merrin," but that "the insurgency to lift him to the speaker's chair only picked up speed starting a few days ago."

Indeed, Minority Leader Allison Russo says Democrats decided just two hours before the vote to cast their lot in with Stephens. Another 22 Republicans joined them, however, which left Merrin with only 43 votes. Russo, whose caucus supplied most of the support for the new speaker, declared that there was "no grand deal," but "there were lots of discussions about things and areas of agreement on issues." She also relays that Merrin spoke to her about getting Democratic support, which very much did not end up happening.

This is the second time in the last few years that the Democratic minority has played a key role in helping a Republican win the gavel over the candidate favored by most of the GOP caucus, though Merrin himself was on the other side of that vote. In 2019, he was one of the 26 Republicans who joined that same number of Democrats in supporting Larry Householder over Speaker Ryan Smith. Unlike four years ago, though, Smith got the backing of 11 Democrats as well as 34 GOP members.

Stephens, for his part, was appointed to the chamber later that year to succeed none other than Smith, who resigned to become president of the University of Rio Grande and Rio Grande Community College. The victorious Householder, though, was removed as speaker in 2020 after being arrested on federal corruption charges; Householder's colleagues expelled him the following year, though Merrin voted to keep him in office.

WI State Senate: Former state Sen. Randy Hopper ended his brief comeback campaign days after Christmas and endorsed state Rep. Dan Knodl in the Feb. 21 Republican special election primary.

Mayors and County Leaders

Chicago, IL Mayor: The Chicago Electoral Board in late December removed two minor contenders, police officer Frederick Collins and freelance consultant Johnny Logalbo, from the Feb. 28 nonpartisan primary ballot after determining that they didn't have enough valid signatures to advance. However, challenges were dropped against activist Ja'Mal Green, Alderman Roderick Sawyer, and wealthy perennial candidate Willie Wilson, so they will be competing in what is now a nine-person race.

Prosecutors and Sheriffs

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney: Pennsylvania's Commonwealth Court ruled Friday that state House Republicans failed to demonstrate any of the legally required standards for "misbehavior in office" when they voted to impeach Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner in November. The order, though, did not say if Krasner's trial before the state Senate, which is scheduled for Jan. 18, must be called off.

Obituaries

Lincoln Almond: Former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Almond, a Republican who served from 1995 to 2003, died Tuesday at the age of 86. Almond, who made his name as the state's U.S. attorney, badly lost the 1978 general election to Democratic incumbent Joseph Garrahy, but he prevailed 16 years later by defeating state Sen. Myrth York in a close contest. You can find much more at WPRI's obituary.

Grab Bag

Where Are They Now?: Former Massachusetts Rep. Joe Kennedy III was chosen before Christmas to serve as the State Department's special envoy for economic affairs for Northern Ireland. Kennedy, who is the grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, was elected to the House in 2012 and left to unsuccessfully challenge Sen. Ed Markey in the 2020 Democratic primary.

Morning Digest: These departing House members are already mulling comeback bids for 2024

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

House: Several outgoing House members from each party are showing at least some openness in trying to return to the lower chamber or run for a different office, though some soon-to-be-former representatives have already closed the door on a comeback. We'll start with a look at the Democrats and Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, who isn't dismissing talk about challenging Republican Rep.-elect John James in the 10th District.

"I'm definitely not shutting the door to running for office again, whether for Congress or something else," Levin told Politico's Ally Mutnick. This year the congressman turned down his party's pleas to run in the 10th, a suburban Detroit seat that Trump took by a tiny 50-49 margin and where Levin already represented two-thirds of the residents, and instead campaigned for the safely blue 11th. That was a bad decision for both him and for national Democrats: Levin ended up losing his primary to fellow Rep. Haley Stevens 60-40, while James beat Democrat Carl Marlinga just 48.8-48.3 a few months later in a race that Democratic outside groups spent nothing on.

Mutnick also relays that unnamed Democrats are urging New York Rep. Tom Suozzi to challenge Republican Rep.-elect George Santos in the 3rd District. There's no word, though, if Suozzi is interested in trying to regain the constituency he gave up to wage a disastrous primary bid against Gov. Kathy Hochul. While Biden prevailed 54-45 here, the GOP's strong performance on Long Island last month helped power Santos, who lost to Suozzi in 2020 and later attended the Jan. 6 Trump rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol, to a 54-46 win over Democrat Robert Zimmerman.

Another outgoing New York congressman, Mondaire Jones, also responded to questions about his future by telling Bloomberg, "I'm not closing the door to anything, other than doing nothing, these next two years … I'm always going to be fighting for the communities that I represent, even if I'm not formally their elected in the United States Congress these next two years."

Jones, though, did not elaborate on if he has a specific office in mind or where he'd run. Jones, who represents the Hudson Valley, decided to run in New York City in order to avoid a primary against DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney: Jones ended up taking third place in the 10th District primary won by Dan Goldman, while Maloney lost his general election to Republican Mike Lawler.

But New Jersey Rep. Albio Sires, who was not on the ballot anywhere this year, has made it clear he wants to run for a very different sort of office in May 2023. While Sires says he won't make an announcement until his term ends in early January, the congressman has said he's looking at a bid for mayor of West New York, which is the job he held from 1995 until he joined Congress in 2006; the New Jersey Globe reports that he'll enter the contest sometime next month.

However, there's no direct vote at the ballot box to determine who gets to succeed retiring Mayor Gabriel Rodriguez, a fellow Democrat who will likely campaign for the state Assembly next year, as leader of this 52,000-person community. Candidates will instead run on one nonpartisan ballot for a spot on the five-person Town Commission, and the winners will select one of their members for mayor. Anyone who wants the top job, though, will lead a slate of allied commission candidates, something that Commissioner Cosmo Cirillo has already put together.

We've also previously written about a few other departing House Democrats who may run for something in 2024. New Jersey Rep. Tom Malinowski hasn't ruled out another campaign against GOP Rep.-elect Tom Kean Jr. in the 7th, while retiring Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy likewise hasn't dismissed talk she could take on Republican Sen. Rick Scott. There's also been some chatter that Pennsylvania Rep. Conor Lamb, who lost his primary for Senate, could campaign for attorney general, though he hasn't said anything publicly about the idea.

There is one Democrat who has already closed the door on a comeback, though. Oregon Rep. Kurt Schrader, who refused to back Jamie McLeod-Skinner after she beat him in their primary, dismissed talk he could go up against GOP Rep.-elect Lori Chavez-DeRemer by telling Mutnick, "I've been there, done that—time for a young American to step up." Characteristically, the Blue Dog Democrat added, "It can't be a far-lefty. It has to be someone that cares about rural America."

We'll turn to the Republicans, where another Michigan congressman is keeping his options open after a primary defeat. When Politico asked if he was thinking about trying to regain the 3rd District, Rep. Peter Meijer responded, "I'm thinking about a lot of things." Meijer narrowly lost renomination to far-right foe John Gibbs after voting to impeach Donald Trump, while Democrat Hillary Scholten went on to defeat Gibbs in the fall.

Mutnick writes that another pro-impeachment Republican whom the base rejected, Washington Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, is also considering a bid to get back her own 3rd District against Democratic Rep.-elect Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez. Extremist Joe Kent kept Herrera Beutler from advancing past the top-two primary, but he failed to defend the constituency against Gluesenkamp Pérez.

One member who could run for local office in 2023 is New York Rep. Chris Jacobs, a Republican who in October didn't rule out the idea that he could challenge Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz, a Democrat, in next year's general election. Jacobs instead put out a statement saying he would "always give serious consideration to any opportunity to serve" the Buffalo area. The congressman decided not to seek a second full term to avoid a tough primary over his newfound support for an assault weapons ban and related gun safety measures in the wake of recent mass shootings, including one in Buffalo.

There are also a few other outgoing Republicans who previously have been talked about as contenders in 2024. The most serious appears to be New Mexico's Yvette Herrell, who filed new paperwork with the FEC for a potential rematch against Democrat Rep.-elect Gabe Vasquez; Herrell soon told supporters she was considering, though she didn't commit to anything.

Retiring Indiana Rep. Trey Hollingsworth also hasn't ruled out a Senate or gubernatorial bid, though Sen. Mike Braun was recently overheard saying that Hollingsworth would instead support him for governor. (See our IN-Gov item.) There's been some speculation as well that Lee Zeldin, who was the GOP's nominee for governor of New York, could run next year for Suffolk County executive, though Zeldin hasn't shown any obvious interest.

One person we won't be seeing more of, however, is Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot. While Chabot regained his seat in 2010 two years after losing re-election to Democrat Steve Driehaus, the congressman told Spectrum News last week that he wouldn't try the same maneuver against Democratic Rep.-elect Greg Landsman. "I was 26-years-old when I first ran for Cincinnati City Council. When this term ends in January, I'll be turning 70 in January," Chabot explained, adding, "Twenty-six to 70, that's long enough. It's somebody else's turn."

The Downballot

What better way to wrap up the year than by previewing the biggest contests of 2023 on this week's episode of The Downballot? Progressives will want to focus on a Jan. 10 special election for the Virginia state Senate that would allow them to expand their skinny majority; the April 4 battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court that could let progressives take control from conservatives; Chicago's mayoral race; gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Louisiana; and much, much more.

Of course, we might've thought we were done with 2022 after Georgia, but Kyrsten Sinema decided to make herself the center of attention again. However, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why there's much less than meets the eye to her decision to become an independent: She can't take away the Democratic majority in the Senate, and her chances at winning re-election are really poor. In fact, there's good reason to believe she'd hurt Republicans more in a three-way race. The Davids also discuss the upcoming special election for Virginia's dark blue 4th Congressional District, where the key battle for the Democratic nomination will take place in less than a week.

Thank you to all our listeners for supporting The Downballot in our inaugural year. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show, and you'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time. We'll be taking a break for the holidays, but we'll be back on Jan. 5 with a brand new episode.

Governors

IN-Gov: While retiring Rep. Trey Hollingsworth has hinted that he's interested in campaigning for governor, one would-be Republican primary rival is going around saying he'll instead have the congressman's support. Politico's Adam Wren overheard Sen. Mike Braun on Tuesday night telling other Hoosier State notables, "Trey is gonna support me. I had a conversation with him first." While there's also been talk that Hollingsworth could run for the Senate, Braun also said he might give him a place in his administration should he win.  

KY-Gov: The biggest question looming over next year's Republican primary is whether former Gov. Matt Bevin gets in before filing closes on Jan. 6, and at least one would-be rival believes the answer will be yes. State Auditor Mike Harmon, who was the first notable candidate to launch a bid against Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear, tells the Lexington Herald Leader he's 90-to-95% sure Bevin runs, explaining, "Multiple times I've heard people say he's polling."

Harmon continued, "I can't say for sure 'oh, yes, he's getting in.' But I've had some conversations with different people and it's my belief he's going to." We could be in suspense for a while longer: Bevin in 2015 launched his ultimately successful bid on the very last day possible, and he only kicked off his failed 2019 re-election campaign days before the deadline.

If Bevin does dive in, he would be joining a crowded contest where it takes just a simple plurality to win the nomination. There's no obvious frontrunner, but there are arguably two candidates who may qualify for that distinction: Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, and self-funder Kelly Craft, who is Trump's former ambassador to the United Nations. In addition to Harmon the field also includes state Rep. Savannah Maddox, who is an ally of Rep. Thomas Massie; state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles; and Somerset Mayor Alan Keck.

There was some speculation that the legislature could pass a bill to require primary candidates win at least 40% to avoid a runoff, which was the law until 2008, but key lawmakers tell the Herald Leader there's no real energy behind this idea. "We did not talk about it at the (House GOP caucus) retreat, and I'm the chairman of [the] elections committee," said state Rep. Kevin Bratcher.

LA-Gov: Attorney General Jeff Landry on Wednesday unveiled an endorsement from Rep. Clay Higgins, a fellow far-right politician with a base in Acadiana, for next year's all-party primary. Higgins is the first member of the state's congressional delegation to take sides as everyone waits to see if another Republican, Sen. John Kennedy, enters the contest next month. Another one of his colleagues, Rep. Garret Graves, also has been considering running for governor, though he hasn't shown much obvious interest since he learned he'd be in the majority.

House

AZ-02: Outgoing Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, who lost re-election last month to opponent Buu Nygren 53-47, is not ruling out seeking the Democratic nomination to go up against Republican Rep.-elect Eli Crane, though Nez acknowledged a bid would be tough. "Of course, you keep your options open, you never say no to anything," he told Source NM before adding, "I hate to say it, but it's going to be very difficult for any Democrat to run for that position."

Trump carried this sprawling Northeastern Arizona seat 53-45, and Crane ousted Democratic incumbent Tom O'Halleran 54-46 in November. According to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, Republican Blake Masters also beat Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly 51-47 here even as he was losing statewide by an identical margin.

VA-04: Sen. Tim Kaine has endorsed state Sen. Jennifer McClellan ahead of Tuesday's firehouse primary to select the Democratic nominee to succeed the late Rep. Donald McEachin.

The short contest leaves candidates essentially no time to raise the money they'd need to run TV ads, but another Democratic contender, Del. Lamont Bagby, is taking to radio to emphasize his own endorsements. Bagby's commercial features testimonials from Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and Henrico County Supervisor Tyrone Nelson, who praise his record in the legislature and tout him as a worthy successor to McEachin.

Stoney also informs listeners, "Voting is at a special location, not your normal polling place," and advises them to go to Bagby's site to find out where to cast their ballot.

House: Politico's Ally Mutnick takes a detailed early look at the 2024 House battlefield and what candidates could end up running for key seats. For the Republicans, many of the names are familiar ones from the 2022 cycle. Mutnick relays that some strategists want a pair of defeated Senate nominees, Colorado's Joe O'Dea and Washington's Tiffany Smiley, to run for competitive House seats.

The only realistic target for O'Dea would be the 8th District, where Democratic Rep.-elect Yadira Caraveo pulled off a tough win, but Smiley is harder to place: She lives in Richland in the south-central part of Washington, which is located in GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse's 4th District and is at least a two hour drive from either the Democratic-held 3rd or 8th.

The Republican wishlist also includes a few candidates who lost House primaries this year to some disastrous nominees. One prospective repeat contender is Ohio state Sen. Theresa Gavarone, whose bid to challenge longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in the 9th ended with her taking third to QAnon ally J.R. Majewski. Kaptur beat Majewski 57-43 after national Republicans gave up on him, but the GOP's victories in this year's state Supreme Court contest could allow Gavarone and her colleagues to draw up a more favorable map for the state senator should she try again.

Another potential repeat is Keene Mayor George Hansel, a self-declared "pro-choice" candidate who wanted to take on Democratic incumbent Annie Kuster in New Hampshire's 2nd District. National Democrats very much didn't want that happening, though, as they ran ads promoting Hansel's underfunded opponent, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns. The strategy worked as intended: Burns won the nomination 33-30, while Kuster defeated him 56-44 two months later.

Mutnick also writes that some Republicans are hoping to see another try from Derrick Anderson, a Green Beret veteran who wanted to challenge Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia's 7th but lost the primary 29-24 to Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega. Democrats went on to focus on Vega's far-right views, including her comments falsely suggesting that it's unlikely for rape to result in pregnancy, and Spanberger prevailed 52-48.

Republicans have their eyes on a few Republicans who didn't run for Congress in 2022, too. Mutnick says that one possible recruit against Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in Michigan's 8th is state Rep.-elect Bill Schuette, who is the son and namesake of the GOP's 2018 nominee for governor.

And while the GOP will soon be able to gerrymander North Carolina's new congressional map, Mutnick writes that some Republicans would prefer state Rep. Erin Paré go up against Democrat Wiley Nickel in the 13th rather than see another campaign by Bo Hines. Indeed, Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw trashed both Hines and Karoline Leavitt, who failed to win New Hampshire's 1st, when he told Politico, "We lost races we easily should have won. We elected two 25-year-olds to be our nominees. That's batshit crazy."

Democrats, meanwhile, have a few 2022 nominees they would like to run again:

  • AZ-01: Jevin Hodge
  • AZ-06: Kirsten Engel
  • CA-41: Will Rollins
  • CA-45: Jay Chen

There is no word from any of the once and potentially future candidates from either party about their 2024 plans.

Legislatures

PA State House: Allegheny County election officials say they plan to hold a trio of special elections in Democratic-held state House seats on Feb. 7, declaring, "While we await action by the Court, we will move forward with preparation and other work necessary to conduct the special elections, including confirming polling locations, scheduling poll workers and other administrative work."

Democrat Joanna McClinton scheduled these three contests for early February after she was sworn in as majority leader last week, citing the fact that Democrats won 102 of the 203 state House seats on Nov. 8. Republicans, though, have filed a lawsuit arguing that she did not have the authority to do this because the GOP will have more members when the new legislature meets Jan. 3 because of those vacancies.

VA State Senate: Democrat Aaron Rouse touts his time in the NFL and Virginia Beach roots in his opening TV ad ahead of the Jan. 10 special to succeed Republican Rep.-elect Jen Kiggans. Rouse faces Republican Kevin Adams, a Navy veteran and first-time office-seeker, in a contest that gives Democrats the chance to expand their narrow 21-19 majority in the upper chamber to a wider 22-18 advantage.

Rouse's spot opens with footage of the candidate in action as an announcer proclaims, "What a break on the football by Aaron Rouse!" The Democrat himself then appears on a football field where he talks about the Virginia Beach neighborhood he grew up in by saying, "Before I was Aaron Rouse, the NFL player… I was just Aaron, from Seatack. Mom raised us on her own."

Rouse, who now serves on the City Council, continues, "My granddad told me: I was man of the house. So I did whatever it took. Mowing lawns, pumping gas, cleaning buses." He concludes, "It's time for Richmond to get to work making life more affordable for Virginia families."

Mayors and County Leaders

Austin, TX Mayor: Former state Sen. Kirk Watson on Tuesday narrowly regained the office he held from 1997 to 2001 by defeating state Rep. Celia Israel 50.4-49.6 in the runoff to succeed their fellow Democrat, termed-out Mayor Steve Adler. Watson will serve an abbreviated two-year term because voters last year approved a ballot measure to move mayoral elections to presidential cycles starting in 2024.

Israel overcame Watson's big spending edge on Nov. 8 to lead him 41-35 in the first round of voting, but observers speculated that his base would be more likely to turn out for the runoff. Israel did best in South and East Austin, areas that have large populations of younger and more diverse voters, while Watson performed strongly in Northwest Austin, a more affluent and whiter area that's home to more longtime residents who were around when he was last mayor.

Watson also worked to appeal to supporters of conservative Jennifer Virden, who took 18%, by emphasizing tax cuts and crime. Virden never endorsed anyone for round two, but she did fire off some tweets favorable to Watson.

The city's high housing costs were one of the main issues in this contest. Watson argued that each of the 10 City Council districts should adopt their own plans, an approach Israel compared to the old racist practice of "redlining." Watson defended his plan, though, saying that there would still be citywide standards each district would need to meet and that individual communities are "going to be able to tell us where greater density can be used." He also argued that he'd have an easier time working with GOP legislators who have long had a hostile relationship with Austin's city government.

Morning Digest: Republicans seek to trim Democrats’ majority in race for Pennsylvania Supreme Court

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

PA Supreme Court: Two Democrats and one Republican have so far announced that they'll run in next year's statewide race for a 10-year term on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which will be a high-stakes contest even though the Democratic majority on the seven-member body is not at risk. The post these candidates are running for became vacant in September when Chief Justice Max Baer died at the age of 74 just months before he was to retire because of mandatory age limits.

Baer's absence was felt just before Election Day when one Democratic justice, Kevin Dougherty, sided with his two GOP colleagues against the remaining three Democratic members in a high-profile case over whether to count mail-in ballots that arrived on time but had missing or incorrect dates. This deadlock meant that election authorities were required to "segregate and preserve any ballots contained in undated or incorrectly dated outer envelopes," a decision that Democrats feared could cost them crucial contests.

Team Blue, after scrambling to encourage any impacted voters to cast new votes (one woman even immediately flew home from Colorado at her own expense to make sure she would "not be silenced by voter suppression"), got something of a reprieve when Senate nominee John Fetterman and other Democrats pulled off decisive wins. Still, the ruling was a troubling reminder that, even with a 4-2 Democratic edge on the state's highest court, Republicans could still have their way on major cases.

Baer's seat still remains unfilled, since either outgoing Gov. Tom Wolf or his successor, fellow Democrat Josh Shapiro, would need to have his nominee confirmed by the GOP-run state Senate. It's not clear whether Republicans would assent to anyone chosen by Wolf or Shapiro, though any acceptable appointee would almost certainly be someone who agreed not to run next year.

That likely explains why two Democratic members of the Superior Court from opposite sides of the state, Beaver County's Deborah Kunselman and Philadelphia's Daniel McCaffery, have already launched campaigns ahead of the May primary. (The Superior Court is one of two intermediate appellate courts in the state and hears most appeals.) The only Republican in the running right now is Montgomery County President Judge Carolyn Carluccio. A win would be a boon to Republicans but, barring more unexpected vacancies, the soonest they could actually retake the majority would be 2025.

election calls

 CA-13: The final unresolved House race of 2022 was called Friday night for Republican agribusinessman John Duarte, who flipped this seat by defeating Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray 50.2-49.8 after an expensive battle. Biden carried this sprawling constituency in the mid-Central Valley by a 54-43 margin, but Democrats often struggle with midterm turnout in this region. Duarte, though, will almost certainly be a top target when the next presidential cycle comes around in two years.

With this race settled, Republicans will begin the 118th Congress with 222 House seats compared to 212 for Democrats. This tally includes Colorado’s 3rd District, where Democrat Adam Frisch has conceded to far-right Rep. Lauren Boebert even though an automatic recount will take place this month. The final constituency is Virginia’s safely blue 4th District, which became vacant last week following the death of Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin and will be filled through a still-to-be-scheduled special election.

Georgia Runoff

GA-Sen: Two new media polls show Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock with a small lead over Republican Herschel Walker going into Tuesday's runoff. SurveyUSA, working for WXIA-TV, put the senator ahead 50-47, while SRSS' poll for CNN had Warnock up 52-48. (SRSS allowed respondents to say they were uncommitted, but almost none did.)

Redistricting

MT Redistricting: Montana's bipartisan redistricting commission gave its approval to a new map for the state House on Thursday, with the panel's tiebreaking independent member voting in favor of a proposal put forth by Democratic commissioners while the body's two Republicans voted against it. While Republicans are still all but assured of retaining control of the 100-member House, Democrats will have a strong chance of rolling back the GOP's supermajority, which currently stands at 68 seats. (An interactive version of the plan can be found on Dave's Redistricting App.)

The map isn't quite done yet, however: Members of the public will now have the chance to offer feedback, which the commission may use to make further tweaks. Once that task is complete, the panel will work on a map for the upper chamber, which will involve uniting pairs of House districts to create single Senate districts (a process known as "nesting"). The commission will then vote to send final maps to lawmakers, who will have 30 days to propose additional adjustments. Commissioners, however, are not obligated to make any revisions based on comments from legislators.

Once all of this is done, Montana will finally become the last state to finish regular redistricting this decade. It waited so long due to arcane provisions in its state constitution, a delay that very likely was unconstitutional. Despite this apparent violation of the "one person, one vote" doctrine, no one brought a lawsuit challenging these procedures prior to the 2022 elections, so they remained in place. However, in the coming decade, such a challenge could very well succeed.

Senate

FL-Sen: Retiring Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not rule out challenging Republican Sen. Rick Scott in 2024, telling the Orlando Sentinel, "I'm running through the tape in this job. And then I'll figure out what comes next." Murphy also used the interview to push back on the idea that her state had become unwinnable for Democrats, arguing, "Florida is not dark red. It can be a purple and blue state with the right candidates and with the right field strategy."

WV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin said Friday he'd announce his re-election plans sometime in 2023, and that he is "not in a hurry" to make a decision.

House

NM-02: Defeated GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell sent an email to supporters shortly after she created a new FEC account where she confirmed she was considering a rematch against the Democrat who beat her, Rep.-elect Gabe Vasquez. "We know our work in Washington was not completed, and hundreds of people from all over the District and colleagues in Washington have asked me to stay in the fight," Herrell said, adding, "All options will be on the table--so stay tuned."

OR-06: A local judge on Thursday allowed Mike Erickson's lawsuit against Democratic Rep.-elect Andrea Salinas to proceed, but the Republican's legal team is hedging whether he'd try to prevent Salinas from taking office or stop at demanding hundreds of thousands in damages over what he claims was a dishonest ad.

Attorneys General and Secretaries of State

PA-AG: The Philadelphia Inquirer's Chris Brennan takes a look at what could be a crowded 2024 contest to serve as attorney general of this major swing state, a post that Democrat Josh Shapiro will hold until he resigns to become governor. Shapiro will be able to nominate a successor for the GOP-led state Senate to approve, but there's little question that the new attorney general will be someone who agrees to not run in two years.

On the Democratic side, former state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale tells Brennan that he's interested in running; DePasquale was last on the ballot in 2020 when he lost to far-right Rep. Scott Perry 53-47 in the Harrisburg-based 10th District. The paper also reports that former Philadelphia Public Defender Keir Bradford-Grey, Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan, and state Rep. Jared Solomon are all thinking about it. A PAC began fundraising for Bradford-Grey all the way back in April, though she hasn't publicly committed to anything.

Finally, Brennan mentions outgoing Rep. Conor Lamb, who lost this year's Senate primary to John Fetterman, as a possibility. Lamb recently drew attention when he announced he had accepted a job at a prominent law firm in Philadelphia, which is at the opposite side of the commonwealth from his suburban Pittsburgh base, while adding, "I hope to return to public service one day, perhaps soon." Delaware County District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer, who is running for re-election in 2023, is also name-dropped as a possible contender.

On the Republican corner, Brennan relays that former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain being recruited to run for attorney general by unnamed people even though his last bid went very badly. McSwain initially looked like a strong candidate for governor this year before Donald Trump castigated his appointee for not doing enough to advance the Big Lie and urged Republicans not to vote for him. McSwain's main ally, conservative billionaire Jeff Yass, later urged him to drop out in order to stop QAnon ally Doug Mastriano, but he didn't listen: McSwain took a distant third with just 16%, while Shapiro went on to beat Mastriano in a landslide.

Another Republican, state Rep. Craig Williams, says he's considering even though he's focused right now on being an impeachment manager as his party tries to remove Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner from office. (Solomon will be one of the Democrats defending Krasner at his January trial before the state Senate.) Brennan also mentions as possibilities former U.S. Attorney Scott Brady; state Rep. Natalie Mihalek; York County District Attorney David Sunday; and Westmoreland County District Attorney Nicole Ziccarelli.

The attorney general became an elected office in 1980, and Republicans had an iron grip on the job until Democrat Kathleen Kane finally broke their streak in 2012. Kane resigned in disgrace four years later, but Shapiro held the seat for his party even as Donald Trump was narrowly carrying the state and prevailed again in 2020.

Legislatures

WI State Senate: Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has scheduled the special election to succeed former Republican state Sen. Alberta Darling, whose resignation gives Democrats a chance to take away the GOP's new supermajority, to coincide with the April 4 statewide contest for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers' proclamation also makes it clear the contest for this seat, which is based in the suburbs and exurbs north of Milwaukee, will take place under the new legislative lines drawn up this year.

The new version of this seat would have backed Trump 52-47, according to Dave's Redistricting App. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson last month won the district 54-46, according to our calculations, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels prevailed over Evers here by a smaller 52-48 spread.

The only notable candidate currently running to succeed Darling is Republican state Rep. Dan Knodl, who launched his bid on Tuesday. Prospective contenders have until Jan. 3 to file, and primaries would take place Feb. 21 if needed.

Mayors and County Leaders

Houston, TX Mayor: State Sen. John Whitmire announced all the way back in 2021 that he would compete in next fall's nonpartisan contest to succeed his fellow Democrat, termed-out Mayor Sylvester Turner, but Whitmire's Tuesday kickoff still made news for attracting a number of prominent Republican donors.

Whitmire has in his corner billionaire Tilman Fertitta, who also used the launch at the hotel he owns to attack Turner's leadership. (Paper City notes that Fertitta once hosted a fundraiser for Turner.) The state senator also has the backing of several donors whom the Houston Chronicle says funded Republican Alexandra del Moral Mealer's unsuccessful attempt to oust Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo last month, as well as local police unions. The kickoff was also attended by some notable local Democrats including Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg, who has clashed with Hidalgo, and fellow state Sen. Carol Alvarado.

Whitmire himself begins the campaign with a huge $9.5 million in his legislative account, though, the Chronicle says it's not clear how much of that he can use to run for mayor. He's been able to build up this sort of haul in part because he's had decades to fundraise. He was first elected to the state House all the way back in 1972, when Democrats were still the dominant party in Texas, and he won a promotion to the upper chamber in 1982.

Whitmire, who is the longest serving member of the state Senate, has remained a powerful figure even though he's spent most of that time in the minority. He has chaired the Criminal Justice Committee since 1993, which makes him the only Democrat to hold this sort of power. The Chronicle writes that, while he's usually supported his party's proposals, he's sided with the GOP on multiple votes against bail reform. The state senator last year also dismissed the lack of air conditioning units in jail cells by snarking, "Don't commit a crime and you can be cool at home."

The state senator, though, had no trouble winning renomination to his seat, which now takes up about a quarter of Houston, until this year when he faced a challenge from the left from nurse Molly Cook. Cook, who accused him of "running for two offices at once," lost 58-42, which was still Whitmire's closest showing since the early 1990s.

Whitmire currently faces three notable opponents in the race for the job that his former sister-in-law, Kathy Whitmire, held from 1982 to 1992. The field includes former Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins, who attracted widespread attention in 2020 for implementing efforts to expand access to voting during the pandemic. Hollins has already called Whitmire's Democratic loyalties into question by reminding voters that he did not support Hidalgo during her competitive re-election fight.

The contest also includes former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who took fifth in the 2020 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and would be the first Black woman to lead Houston. Rounding out the field is attorney Lee Kaplan, a first-time candidate who has done some self-funding. Kaplan and Edwards had about $700,000 and $720,000 on hand at the end of June, respectively, while Hollins had $940,000 to spend. All the candidates will compete on one nonpartisan ballot in November, and it would take a majority of the vote to avert a runoff the next month.

Morning Digest: Wisconsin’s 2023 Supreme Court race may decide fate of abortion and gerrymandering

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

WI Supreme Court: With the conservative majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court on the line in 2023—and with it the outcomes of future battles over fair elections and abortion rights—the contest to succeed retiring conservative Justice Patience Roggensack will likely be one of the most consequential elections in any state next year.

Wednesday was the campaign launch date for conservative Waukesha County Judge Jennifer Dorow, who recently finished presiding over the high-profile trial where Darrell Brooks was sentenced to life in prison for killing six people at last year’s Waukesha Christmas parade. Dorow joins a field that includes former Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly, who is also a conservative, and two liberal-aligned candidates, Dane County Judge Everett Mitchell and Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz.

All candidates will compete on the same nonpartisan primary ballot on Feb. 21, and the top two contenders will advance to an April 4 general election alongside local elections throughout much of the state that day. Petitioning to get on the ballot starts on Dec. 1, and the filing deadline is Jan. 4.

Although Supreme Court candidates in Wisconsin don't have partisan labels on the ballot, the ideological fault lines have been clear in recent elections, which have looked very similar to partisan contests. One key difference this time, though, is that each side is fielding two candidates apiece, meaning either progressives or conservatives could snag both spots in the second round of voting.

To avoid such a lockout, both factions may try to consolidate around a single standard-bearer before the primary. One far-right billionaire is already signaling that he'll make his influence felt: Dick Uihlein, who along with his wife Elizabeth was the biggest GOP megadonor nationally in 2022, has indicated he'll spend millions backing Kelly.

The election will be pivotal, and abortion rights tops the list of reasons why. Most notably, the U.S. Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade earlier this year resurrected an 1849 Wisconsin law that makes it a felony to perform an abortion in almost all cases. Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, who narrowly won re-election in November, has filed a suit seeking to have that 19th century law ruled unenforceable, a case that will likely wind up before the state Supreme Court.

The court has also been central in the battle against GOP voter suppression efforts. In 2020, Kelly was ousted by liberal Judge Jill Karofsky in an election at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic that was plagued by exceptionally long voting lines due to the closure of most polling places. The court's conservative majority exacerbated the problem by blocking an executive order by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers to delay the election, but Kelly nonetheless lost by a wide 55-45 margin. More recently, the conservative majority ruled in favor of a ban on absentee ballot drop boxes following their widespread adoption in the 2020 elections due to the pandemic.

In addition to restrictions on voting, the court is also critical to the fate of Republican gerrymandering efforts. Heading into the current round of redistricting, Wisconsin's state government was divided, with Evers facing a legislature that Republicans dominated in large part thanks to their previous gerrymanders. When the two parties predictably deadlocked over drawing new congressional and legislative maps, the courts stepped in and took over the process, ostensibly with the aim of drawing neutral lines.

However, in another ruling along ideological lines, the court's conservative majority made up its own requirement that any new maps make only the minimum changes possible when compared to the previous maps, solely to restore population equality. Justice Brian Hagedorn, the lone conservative who is occasionally a swing vote, later sided with his three liberal colleagues to adopt new districts proposed by Evers because they moved fewer residents than GOP proposals did. However, the least-change requirement meant that even the maps proposed by the Democratic governor still heavily favored Republicans compared to their statewide vote share, effectively locking in much of the impact of the prior decade's GOP gerrymanders in all but name.

Wisconsin once again saw the dramatic effects of this rigged redistricting in action this year: Although Evers beat his GOP foe 51-48 and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson turned back his Democratic challenger 50-49, Republicans gained a two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate and fell just two seats shy of one in the Assembly. While Democrats have next to no hope of winning majorities so long as these districts stand, a more independent-minded court could overturn these maps for violating state constitutional protections and order the adoption of fairer maps that more accurately reflect Wisconsin's status as a longtime swing state.

The Downballot

Why did Democrats do so surprisingly well in the midterms? It turns out they ran really good campaigns, as strategist Josh Wolf tells us on this week's episode of The Downballot. That means they defined their opponents aggressively, spent efficiently, and stayed the course despite endless second-guessing in the press. Wolf gives us an inside picture of how exactly these factors played out in the Arizona governor's race, one of the most important Democratic wins of the year. He also shines a light on an unsexy but crucial aspect of every campaign: how to manage a multi-million budget for an enterprise designed to spend down to zero by Election Day.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, take a look at how turnout differed between Republicans and Democrats in 2022 (and why it's bad news for the GOP for 2024); why the Republican House majority is the most precarious it's been in a long time; how bonkers conspiracy theorists in a dark-red county in Arizona could flip two major races by refusing to certify their own votes; and a key special election coming up in Wisconsin that could allow Democrats to roll back the GOP's new supermajority in the state Senate.

New episodes of The Downballot come out every Thursday morning. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time.

Georgia Runoff

GA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC's Georgia Honor affiliate is deploying another $5.8 million in advertising for the final week of the runoff, and its new spot opens with the narrator proclaiming, "Herschel Walker's violence has hurt so many people." The commercial then plays clips or quotes of both the Republican's ex-wife and son saying he'd threatened to kill them, before the narrator reminds viewers, "An ex-girlfriend says Walker used threats of violence to force her to have an abortion."

Meanwhile, another SMP affiliate, Majority Forward, has announced that it's spending $11 million on a get-out-the-vote effort in partnership with America Votes. Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is also airing a minute-long ad starring former President Barack Obama, who opens, "Serious times call for special leaders."

Governors

IN-Gov, IN-Sen: Politico's Adam Wren reported Wednesday that Sen. Mike Braun filed paperwork the previous day for a potential run to succeed his fellow Republican, termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb. Braun, whose seat is also up in 2024, didn't quite commit to a bid to lead the Hoosier State, saying, "We'll talk to you down the road." Braun's chief of staff, though, sounded far more sure about his boss' plans, telling Wren, "Mike Braun has filed his paperwork to run for governor and will be making an official announcement of his candidacy very soon."

There's already plenty of talk about which Republicans could run to replace Braun in the Senate. A spokesperson for Rep. Jim Banks said last week, "He will strongly consider it if Sen. Braun runs for governor in 2024." Politico also reported back in September that fellow Rep. Victoria Spartz had told people she planned to campaign for an open seat.

It's rare for a first-term senator to leave after just one term, though Braun burned his bridges just after the election when he supported NRSC chair Rick Scott's failed effort to oust Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It's also fairly unusual for members of the upper chamber to campaign for governor, where most states have term limits for their chief executives.

Indeed, the University of Minnesota's Eric Ostermeier last year found that just three sitting senators have been elected governor during the 21st century, with Kansas Republican Sam Brownback pulling this off most recently in 2010. Louisiana Republican David Vitter also tried this career switch in 2015, but the scandal-ridden senator lost to Democrat John Bel Edwards in a true upset.

House

NJ-07: NJ Spotlight News this week asked outgoing incumbent Tom Malinowski if he planned to seek another bout against Republican Rep.-elect Tom Kean Jr., to which the Democrat responded, "I'm going to stay very very interested in the fate of our district, New Jersey, and the fight for democracy in America. I haven't decided how I'm gonna do that, but I'm certainly not going anywhere." Kean unseated Malinowski 52-48 in a constituency that Biden won 51-47.  

VA-04: Several Democrats aren't ruling out running in the upcoming special election to succeed the late Rep. Donald McEachin, though they're understandably reluctant to say much this soon after the congressman's death. It also remains to be seen how Democrats will choose their nominee for this safely blue Richmond-based seat.  

Del. Lamont Bagby told 8News of McEachin, whom he's called a father or brother figure, "I think it's a little too soon to talk about it, but there is no secret I've always wanted to follow in my big brother's footsteps." Fellow Del. Jeff Bourne likewise relayed that he was still "trying to process the immense loss of such a wonderful father, husband and public servant."

State Sen. Jennifer McClellan, who succeeded McEachin in the legislature, responded, "We're mourning him right now and that is a conversation that probably will be had eventually but I'm not prepared to have it right now." A spokesperson for Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney also declared that a special election bid "is not on the Mayor's mind at all right now."

Finally, state Sen. Joe Morrissey, who has long been one of the most unreliable Democrats in the legislature in between two different stints as an independent, said, "It's way too premature for me to say yay or nay." Morrissey, though, sounded happy where he is as the key vote in Team Blue's 21-19 majority, adding, "I will say this. I love being in the [state] Senate. I love being able to do something substantive for Virginia, and I'm not so sure that being one of 435 members would allow me to be as effective."

Mayors and County Leaders

Denver, CO Mayor: State Rep. Alex Valdez this week became the latest candidate to enter the ever-expanding April 4 nonpartisan primary to succeed Mayor Michael Hancock, a fellow Democrat who cannot seek a fourth term. "The next mayor must be able to bring progressives and moderates together to solve challenges," said Valdez, who previously founded a solar energy company.

Valdez, like several other contenders in what's now a 22 person-field, would be the second Latino elected to lead Colorado's capital and largest city; the first was Federico Peña, who won the first of his two terms in 1983. Valdez would also be the Denver's first gay mayor, a distinction he'd share with fellow state Rep. Leslie Herod.

Prosecutors

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney: The state Senate will begin its trial of Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a leading criminal justice reformer whom the outgoing GOP majority in the state House voted to impeach two weeks ago, on Jan. 18, which is after the new legislature takes office. It would take 34 senators to hit the two-thirds majority needed to remove Krasner, and since Republicans will only control 28 of the 50 seats next year, they'd need at least six Democrats to side with them.

That's a tough task, though, especially since just one Democrat, Jimmy Dillon, sided with the GOP on Tuesday on a pair of votes setting the rules for the trial. Potentially complicating things further is the fact that Republican John Gordner resigned this week halfway through his term in order to become counsel to state Senate Interim President Pro Tempore Kim Ward.

Morning Digest: Democrats will soon have the chance to undo Wisconsin GOP’s new Senate supermajority

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

WI State Senate: Though Wisconsin Republicans just captured a supermajority in the state Senate earlier this month, they could soon give it back: Just before the Thanksgiving holiday, longtime GOP state Sen. Alberta Darling announced she'd resign effective Dec. 1, a move that will require Democratic Gov. Tony Evers to call a special election.

Republicans made Darling's 8th District a few points redder under the tilted map they convinced the conservative-dominated state Supreme Court to adopt in April: Under the old lines, Donald Trump carried the 8th by a hair, 49.4 to 49.3, but the current iteration would have backed Trump 52-47, according to Dave's Redistricting App. In the just-concluded midterms, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won the district 54-46, according to our calculations, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels prevailed by a smaller 52-48 spread.

Darling won re-election for a four-year term in 2020 in the old district, but since the new map is now in effect, state constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain concludes that the new lines will likely be used. But despite the seat's GOP lean, Democrats will contest this seat to the utmost.

Republicans were able to take a two-thirds majority this year by flipping the open 25th District in the northwestern part of the state—another seat they gerrymandered—giving them 22 seats in the 33-member Senate. As a result, if Republicans in the Assembly impeach any state officials, their counterparts in the upper chamber can now remove them from office without a single Democratic vote. And if they were to impeach Evers, he'd be suspended from office until the end of a trial in the Senate, which Republicans could try to drag out even if they lack the votes to convict.

Rolling back this supermajority will therefore be critical for Democrats. One thing working in the party's favor is the fact that the suburbs and exurbs north of Milwaukee where Darling's district is based have been moving to the left in recent years—a key reason Republicans tried to gerrymander this seat further. One potentially strong option, however, has already said no: state Rep. Deb Andraca, who represents a third of the district, took herself out of the running on Monday.

Since Wisconsin "nests" three Assembly districts in each Senate district, there are two other seats that make up the 8th, both held by Republicans. One, Dan Knodl, says he's "seriously considering" a campaign; the other, Janel Brandtjen, doesn't appear to have said anything yet. (Brandtjen, an election denier, was recently barred from private meetings of the Assembly GOP caucus after supporting a primary challenge to Speaker Robin Vos.)

It's not clear when exactly the special will be held, but in her statement declining a bid, Andraca suggested it would take place "this spring." Wisconsin is set to hold its annual "spring election" for state and local offices on April 4, so this race could potentially be consolidated with those contests.

Election Recaps

AK-Sen, AK-AL, AK-Gov: Alaska conducted instant-runoff tabulations one day before Thanksgiving, and Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola each won re-election after their respective opponents failed to consolidate enough support to pull ahead. Hardline GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy, meanwhile, claimed a bare majority of the first-choice preferences, so election officials did not do the ranked choice process for his race.

Murkowski held a tiny 43.4-42.6 edge over intra-party rival Kelly Tshibaka, a former state cabinet official backed by Donald Trump, with Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley taking 10% and 3%, respectively. But Murkowski, who has crossed party lines on some high-profile votes, always looked likely to take the bulk of Chesbro's support, and she emerged with a clear 54-46 win when tabulations were complete.

Tshibaka responded to her defeat by blasting Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's allies at the Senate Leadership Fund for deploying "millions of dollars in this race on deceptive ads to secure what he wanted—a Senate minority that he can control, as opposed to a majority he could not." Trump weeks before the election also ranted that "[t]he Old Broken Crow, Mitchell McConnell, is authorizing $9 Million Dollars to be spent in order to beat a great Republican" rather than target Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, though SLF itself only ended up spending $6.1 million in Alaska.

Peltola, meanwhile, began Wednesday with 49% of the vote while two Republican rivals, former reality TV star Sarah Palin and businessman Nick Begich III, clocked in at 26% and 23%; the balance went to Libertarian Chris Bye. While Palin had announced her chief of staff the day after the election, reality made his services unnecessary: Peltola ended up beating Palin by a staggering 55-45 after the instant-runoff process was finished, a big shift from her 51.5-48.5 upset win in their August special election contest. Peltola will be one of five House Democrats in a Trump seat in the 118th Congress, and hers will be the reddest of the bunch.

Dunleavy, finally, claimed an outright win with 50.3%. His two main rivals, former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara and former independent Gov. Bill Walker, took 24% and 21%, respectively, while the remainder went to Republican Charlie Pierce, who was challenging the already staunchly conservative Dunleavy from the right. Gara and Walker both said they'd be ranking the other as their second choice, but we don't know how many of their respective supporters followed their lead.

Seattle, WA Ballot: Seattle has narrowly voted to replace its municipal top-two primaries with a ranked choice system by 2027, though voters will still need to go to the polls in two different elections even after the switch takes place.

Candidates for mayor, city attorney, and the City Council will continue to compete on one nonpartisan primary ballot, but voters will be able to rank their preferred choices instead of selecting just one option. The two contenders who emerge with the most support after the ranked choice tabulations are completed will advance to the general election, where voters would select just one choice. This is different from several other American cities like Minneapolis, Oakland, and San Francisco where all the contenders compete in a single election decided through instant-runoff voting.

It's not clear yet if the new ranked choice system will be in place in time for Seattle's next mayoral race in 2025. A spokesperson for King County's elections department explained that software and ballot updates, as well as tests and voter education, will be needed, saying, "It is possible that we may be able to roll it out before 2027, but until we're able to dive into the details with the city and state, we won't know." Officials also will need to decide how many candidates a voter can rank.

Seattleites earlier this month were presented with a two-part ballot measure called Proposition 1. The first asked voters whether they wanted to replace the top-two primary for city offices, and voters answered in the affirmative by a 51-49 margin. They were then asked if they wanted to adopt ranked choice voting or approval voting if voters on part one favor changing the status quo, and ranked choice won 76-24.

This contest took place because backers of approval voting collected enough signatures for a referendum to bring it to the Emerald City: The approval voting system, which is used in St. Louis, allows voters to cast as many votes as there are candidates, with up to one vote per contender and each vote counting equally. The City Council, though, responded by also placing a ranked choice question on the ballot as a rival option.

The group supporting approval voting enjoyed a huge financial edge thanks to enormous contributions from the Center for Election Science, a pro-approval voting organization funded by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, as well as now-former cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried: The dramatic failure of Bankman-Fried's preferred option, though, turned out to be far from the worst news he got in mid-November.

Georgia Runoff

GA-Sen: AdImpact tells Politico that Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and his outside group allies have outspent Republican Herschel Walker’s side by a lopsided $31 million to $12 million from Nov. 9 to Nov. 28 on TV, radio, and digital ads. The GOP has a $7 million to $5 million advantage in ad time for the remaining week of the contest, though this number can change if new spots are purchased.

Warnock’s campaign alone has outpaced Walker $15 million to $5 million through Monday, an important advantage since FCC regulations give candidates—but not outside groups—discounted rates on TV and radio. The senator was able to amass this sort of spending lead because he’s also continued to overwhelm Walker in the fundraising department: Warnock outraised his foe $51 million to $20 million from Oct. 20 to Nov. 16 and concluded that period with a $30 million to $10 million cash-on-hand lead.

Warnock’s supporters at the Senate Majority PAC affiliate Georgia Honor also outspent their GOP counterparts at the Senate Leadership Fund $13 million to $5 million, though SLF is hoping one prominent surrogate will help them overcome that disadvantage. Just before Thanksgiving the group debuted a spot starring Gov. Brian Kemp, who won re-election outright 53-46 on Nov. 8 as Walker lagged Warnock 49.4-48.5: While Kemp didn’t campaign with the Senate nominee during the first round, he now pledges to the audience, “Herschel Walker will vote for Georgia, not be another rubber stamp for Joe Biden.”

Walker also has benefited from a $1.5 million ad buy from the NRA that began shortly ahead of Thanksgiving. The candidate additionally is running his own ad attacking Warnock’s character.

Senate

OH-Sen: Axios published a profile of venture capitalist Mark Kvamme last week where it briefly noted the Republican "also acknowledges that he's had informal talks about running for public office, possibly as a challenger to Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2024."

Senate: The Associated Press' Michelle Price takes a very early look at the 2024 Senate battleground map and gives us some new information in several key races:

NV-Sen: Army veteran Sam Brown, who lost this year's Senate primary 56-34 after running an unexpectedly well-funded campaign against frontrunner Adam Laxalt, is being mentioned as a prospective foe against Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen. A Brown advisor didn't rule anything out, saying, "He has committed to his supporters that he will never stop fighting for their issues, but he has not made any decisions as to whether that involves a future run for office."

PA-Sen: Neither former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick nor Big Lie spreader Kathy Barnette, who both lost this year's Senate primary to Mehmet Oz, would respond to Price's inquiries about a campaign against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. An unnamed person close to McCormick told Politico all the way back in June that he was considering the idea.

UT-Sen: An advisor for Attorney General Sean Reyes said of a possible GOP primary challenge to incumbent Mitt Romney, "He's certainly set up to run, but it does not mean he's considering it." The Deseret News wrote earlier this month that Reyes was "actively pursuing a campaign" against Romney, who has not announced if he'll seek a second term.

WI-Sen: GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher deflected Price's questions about his interest in taking on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, merely saying, "Any talk of the next election, especially since we just had an election, distracts from the serious work we need to do."

Governors

KY-Gov: Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, who just months ago expressed interest in running for governor of Kentucky, has very firmly taken himself out of the running by accepting the post of health commissioner of Tennessee.

LA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser told the Lafayette Daily Advertiser's Greg Hilburn on Sunday that it "will absolutely make a difference in my decision" whether or not his fellow Republican, Sen. John Kennedy, runs in next year's all-party primary. Nungesser, though, seems to think that Kennedy will make his plans known in the next month-and-a-half, because he says his own announcement will come Jan. 10.

Hilburn also relays that another Republican, Rep. Garret Graves, "will also likely wait on Kennedy to make a final decision." However, he notes that Graves may opt to stay put no matter what due to his rising status in the House leadership.

House

NM-02: Outgoing GOP incumbent Yvette Herrell last week filed FEC paperwork for a potential 2024 rematch against Democratic Rep.-elect Gabe Vasquez, who unseated her 50.3-49.7. These super-early filings from defeated candidates, as we recently noted, often have more to do with resolving financial matters from their last campaign than they do about the future, though the Republican hasn't said anything publicly over the last week about her plans.

Herrell may also be hoping for a favorable ruling from the state Supreme Court, which will hear oral arguments in January in a case brought by Republicans alleging that the congressional map violates the state constitution as a partisan gerrymander. Herrell lost this month's contest to Vasquez in a constituency that favored Biden 52-46.

VA-04: Democratic Rep. Don McEachin, who has represented Virginia’s 4th Congressional District since 2017, died on Monday night at the age of 61 due to colorectal cancer. We will have a detailed look at his career in the next Digest.

Legislatures

AK State Senate, AK State House: Following Wednesday's tabulation of ranked-choice votes in races where no candidate won a majority on Nov. 8, nine Democrats and eight Republicans in Alaska's state Senate announced the formation of a bipartisan majority coalition, similar to one that held sway in the chamber from 2007 to 2012. The situation in the House, however, remains uncertain.

The alliance ends a decade of Republican control over the Senate, though GOP Sen. Gary Stevens will hold the top role of president, a position he served in during the last bipartisan coalition. That leaves just three far-right Republicans out in the cold; Stevens said they've been "difficult to work with" and specifically cited the fact that they've voted against state budgets their own party had crafted. (Members of the majority are required to vote for the budget, a system known as a "binding caucus" whose enforcement is evidently now being given effect.)

The House has likewise been governed by a shifting consortium of Democrats, independents, and Republicans since 2017, but it's not clear whether such an arrangement will continue. While Republicans lost two seats in the Senate, they retained nominal control of 21 seats in the House—theoretically enough for a bare majority. One of those, however, belongs to House Speaker Louise Stutes, a member of the current coalition, while another is represented by David Eastman, a member of the far-right Oath Keepers who is disliked by many fellow Republicans for his obstructionism.

There are many possible permutations that could result in either side winding up in charge. One big question mark is state Rep. Josiah Patkotak, a conservative independent and coalition member who could potentially join forces with the GOP. Another is the 15th District, where Republican Rep. Tom McKay leads Democrat Denny Wells by just four votes after ranked-choice tabulations; Wells says he will likely seek a recount after results are certified on Tuesday.

Whatever happens, we could be in for a long wait: Following both the 2018 and 2020 elections, alliances in the House weren't finalized until February, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar delay this time.

NH State House: Control of the New Hampshire state House remains up in the air after a wild election night and even wilder post-election period that saw Democrats make big gains and left Republicans with just a 201-198 advantage—plus one tied race that could get resolved in a special election.

Even though the GOP will hold a bare majority no matter what happens, that may not be enough to elect a Republican speaker when the chamber—the largest state legislative body in the nation—is sworn in on Dec. 7. Absences are frequent in this part-time legislature, where lawmakers are paid just $100 a year and receive no per diem. Given that reality, a different majority could show up every time the House convenes, a truly chaotic situation that could result in a new speaker every time unless the parties hammer out a power-sharing agreement.

Members will also have to decide what to do in Strafford District 8 (known locally as Rochester Ward 4), which ended in a tie following a recount after election night results put Republican challenger David Walker up just a single vote on Democratic state Rep. Chuck Grassie. The House could simply vote to seat whichever candidate it likes in a raw display of partisan power, or it could order a special election, as was done on at least three prior occasions. In one bizarre case in 1964, however, legislators opted to seat both candidates in a tied race—and gave them half a vote each.

In the event of a special election, though, expect both sides to go all out, especially given the swingy nature of this district, which would've voted 51-47 for Joe Biden. And expect more specials in the near future either way, as resignations are also a regular occurrence in the New Hampshire House.

VA State House, Where Are They Now?: Former Rep. Tom Garrett, a Republican who dropped out of his 2018 bid for a second term in bizarre fashion after winning renomination, has announced that he'll run in next year's race for a safely red open seat in the state House. Garrett, who previously served in the state Senate, kicked off his campaign at the Virginia Civil Rights Monument on the state Capitol grounds in Richmond rather than in the rural 56th District to what the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Charlotte Rene Woods calls a "crowd of five."

Garrett said he was choosing that monument both because he admires Barbara Johns, one of the Civil Rights heroes depicted, and because this was the very place he ended his 2018 re-election campaign. The Republican back then disclosed he was leaving Congress to focus on his fight with alcoholism, and he now says, "I haven't had to drink in four-and-a-half years. As soon as I start declaring victory over anything, it will come back and tap me on the shoulder."

Garrett, though, doesn't appear to have mentioned how the House Ethics Committee issued a lengthy report on his final day in office determining that he'd violated House rules by directing his staff to run personal errands for him. Staffers also told the committee that the congressman's wife "would berate staff, often using profanity and other harsh language, for failing to prioritize her needs over their regular official duties." The report additionally accused the Garretts of deliberately dragging their feet during the investigation so that they could run out the clock and avoid censure before the congressman's term expired.

Mayors and County Leaders

Allegheny County, PA Executive: Pittsburgh City Controller Michael Lamb announced Monday that he would compete in what could be a busy May 2023 Democratic primary to succeed incumbent Rich Fitzgerald, who cannot seek a fourth term as head of this populous and reliably blue county. Lamb, who is the uncle of outgoing Rep. Conor Lamb, carried Allegheny County 77-12 in his 2020 primary for state auditor general even as he was losing statewide 36-27 to Nina Ahmad. (Ahmad in turn lost to Republican Timothy DeFoor.)

WESA reporter Chris Potter describes the city comptroller as "the rare politician who travels easily in Democratic Party circles while also having been an outspoken government reformer," noting that, while he's "not necessarily a political firebrand," Lamb "seems likely to incorporate some progressive concerns with county government, especially on matters of criminal justice." Lamb previously won renomination in 2015 by beating back a Fitzgerald-endorsed foe, and Potter says the two have a "wary relationship."

Lamb's only announced intra-party opponent is Erin McClelland, who came nowhere close to unseating GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in her 2014 and 2016 campaigns for the old and dark red 12th Congressional District. McClelland, who has worked as a project manager for the county's social-services department, kicked off her bid in August by saying she expected to face both the "old-boys network" and opponents who "dive into performative propaganda on a social media post."

Potter also relays that observers anticipate that former County Councilor David Fawcett and state Rep. Sara Innamorato will compete in the Democratic primary. Fawcett, whom Potter calls a "celebrated attorney," served on the Council as a Republican from 2000 to 2007 before waging an aborted 2016 bid for the Democratic nomination for attorney general.

Innamorato, for her part, rose to prominence in 2018 when the Democratic Socialists of America member defeated incumbent Dom Costa for renomination; that victory came the same night that her ally Summer Lee, who was also backed by DSA, scored an upset of her own against another Costa brother, state Rep. Paul Costa. Innamorato went on to support now-Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey and Lee in her own successful 2022 campaign for the new 12th District.

We unsurprisingly haven't seen any notable Republicans mentioned for the race to lead a county that Biden took 59-39 and where Team Blue did even better in this year's Senate and governor races. Republican James Roddey actually did win the 1999 contest for what was a newly created office, but he badly lost re-election four years later to Democrat Dan Onorato. The GOP hasn't come anywhere close to retaking the post since then, and Fitzgerald won his final term in 2019 in a 68-32 landslide.  

Philadelphia, PA Mayor: Former Municipal Court Judge Jimmy DeLeon, who recently retired after 34 years on the bench, announced shortly before Thanksgiving that he was joining the May 2023 Democratic primary, promising to be a "no-shenanigans-let's-follow-the-law-there-will-be-order-in-the-courtroom" mayor. Billy Penn says that there was little chatter about DeLeon running until he jumped in last week.  

DeLeon, who unsuccessfully ran for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and state Superior Court during the 2000s, was sanctioned by the Court of Judicial Discipline in 2008 for issuing "a bogus 'stay away order' on behalf of a social acquaintance." DeLeon says of that incident, "I made a mistake, and I was given a second chance … That's why I believe in second chances."

Morning Digest: Republicans just took control of the House because of gerrymandering. Here’s how

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

House: Republicans retook the House on Wednesday after winning California’s 27th Congressional District and, with it, control over at least 218 seats, ending four years of Democratic majorities. While Democrats will still hold the presidency and Senate, the GOP’s House takeover has ended two years of unified Democratic governance in Washington. Many factors made the difference for what’s guaranteed to be a very narrow GOP majority, but among the most consequential for democracy is that Republicans almost certainly owe their majority to gerrymandering.

In a landmark Supreme Court ruling in 2019, every GOP-appointed justice voted over the opposition of every Democratic appointee to prohibit federal courts from curtailing partisan gerrymandering. Chief Justice John Roberts disingenuously argued that judicial intervention wasn’t needed partly because Congress itself could end gerrymandering, at least federally. But following the 2020 elections, every Republican in Congress voted to block a bill supported by every Democrat to ban congressional gerrymandering nationwide, which failed when Democratic Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin refused to also curtail the GOP's filibuster to pass the measure.

Consequently, as shown in this map, Republicans were able to draw roughly four out of every 10 congressional districts after the 2020 census—three times as many as Democrats drew. After Republicans blocked Democrats from ending gerrymandering nationally, Democrats largely refused to disarm unilaterally and gerrymandered where they could, just as the GOP did. Republicans, however, had ma​​​​​​ny more opportunities, in large part because state courts struck down a map passed by New York Democrats and replaced it with a nonpartisan map.

By contrast, the Supreme Court and judges in Florida allowed GOP gerrymanders to remain in place for 2022 in four states even though lower courts found that they discriminated against Black voters as litigation continues. Had Republicans been required to redraw these maps to remedy their discrimination, Black Democrats would have been all but assured of winning four more seats, possibly enough to cost the GOP its majority on their own. And in Ohio, Republicans were able to keep using their map for 2022 even though the state Supreme Court ruled it was an illegal partisan gerrymander, potentially costing Democrats another two seats.

Had Republicans in Congress—or their allies on the courts—not blocked Democratic-backed efforts to end gerrymandering nationally and ensure every state draws fair maps, Democrats would likely be enjoying two more years with full control over the federal government and the ability to pass a number of important policies. But because Republicans at the national level and in state after state chose to preserve their power to gerrymander, that outcome will no longer happen.

For more on the final seat that gave Republicans the majority, see our CA-27 item below.

The Downballot

We're now in the second week of election overtime and there are still plenty of major races yet to be decided—as well as tons more great news for Democrats to exult over on this week's episode of The Downballot. On the uncalled races front, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a pair of House races in California and several legislatures that could flip from red to blue, including the Pennsylvania House. Speaking of legislatures, the Davids also go deep on what the astonishing flips in Michigan will mean for progressives and particularly organized labor.

And there's more! The hosts explain why New York's court-drawn congressional map did indeed undermine Democrats (despite some claims to the contrary) and wrap up with a recap of interesting ballot measures across the country, including an Arizona amendment to create the post of lieutenant governor for the first time; minimum wage hikes in multiple states; and, in several more states, the legalization of weed plus, in Colorado, psychedelic mushrooms.

We're at 992 subscribers on Apple Podcasts, so we'd love it if you'd subscribe to The Downballot there and get us to 1,000! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time. New episodes every Thursday morning.

Election Calls

CA-27: Multiple media outlets called the race in California's 27th District for Republican Rep. Mike Garcia on Wednesday evening, giving the GOP a majority of at least 218 seats in the House. With several races still outstanding, the final size of that majority has yet to be determined, but it will be small—and much smaller than most politicians, operatives, and prognosticators expected heading into election night.

Garcia fended off Democrat Christy Smith in what was the two candidates' third straight matchup. With an estimated 73% of the vote tallied, Garcia led Smith, a former Assemblywoman, by a 54-46 margin. The two first met in a 2020 special election that Garcia won 55-45, then faced off in a much closer rematch that fall that saw Garcia squeak out a 333-vote victory. Despite that tight race, D.C. Democrats seemed to have little faith in Smith for this third bout, spending virtually nothing on her campaign; national Republicans, by contrast, were confident in Garcia, making only relatively small outlays on his behalf.

The congressman, however, will be a top Democratic target in 2024, presumably with a different foe. According to calculations from Daily Kos Elections, his district in the suburbs north of Los Angeles would have voted for Joe Biden by a 55-43 margin, making it one of the bluest seats held by a Republican.

ME-02: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden confirmed his victory over the Republican he unseated in 2018, Bruce Poliquin, when election officials tabulated the results of the instant runoff in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, a rural seat in the northern part of the state that Trump took 52-46.

Golden led 48-45 when it came to first choice preferences while independent Tiffany Bond secured the remaining 7%; the congressman prevailed 53-47 in the second and final round of tabulations. Poliquin was the last New England Republican in the House before Golden beat him four years ago, and his second defeat maintains Team Red’s shutout in the region.

Major outside groups on both sides treated this contest as one of the top House races in the nation, and they deployed their resources accordingly. Altogether the four largest groups involved in House races dropped $19.4 million here: The only seats that attracted more outside spending were California’s 22nd, which is unresolved, and Michigan’s 7th, where Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin won re-election.

Poliquin himself campaigned as an ardent ally of ultra-conservative Paul LePage, the former governor who was waging his own comeback by taking on Democratic Gov. Janet Mills. Poliquin was correct that LePage would carry the 2nd District, but he didn’t do well enough to secure victory for either one of them. LePage, who once called himself “​​Trump before Trump,” instead ran several points behind MAGA’s master by taking the seat only 50-47 according to Daily Kos Elections calculations: Mills more than made up for that by carrying Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree’s 1st 63-36, which powered her to a 55-43 statewide blowout.

LePage’s performance in the 2nd would still have put Poliquin over the top if the former congressman had been able to secure all of LePage’s voters or appeal to enough Mills backers, but that’s very much not what happened. Golden once again touted himself as an independent-minded congressman and emphasized his time in the Marines, an approach he used to win over crossover voters during his last two campaigns. Golden also made sure to run ads where members of the Maine Lodge of the Fraternal Order of Police, a group that supported LePage, praised him as "a different type of Democrat."

Poliquin, for his part, never accepted his defeat from four years ago, and he kicked off his comeback attempt in 2021 by claiming, “Head-to-head, you know, I beat Golden in 2018, and God willing, I will do it again next year.” Poliquin had led Golden 49-47 among first-choice voter preferences on election night as Bond and another contender took the balance, but that wasn't enough under the 2016 voter-approved ranked-choice law. Golden ended up prevailing 50.6-49.4 once votes were assigned to subsequent preferences as minor candidates were eliminated, a result that made Poliquin the first incumbent to lose re-election in the 2nd District since 1916.

The ousted congressman, though, responded by filing a lawsuit arguing that the ranked choice law violated the Constitution. Poliquin's suit was frivolous, and both the district court and an appellate court emphatically rejected his legal arguments since nothing in the Constitutional provisions he cited came close to barring the use of ranked-choice voting, which several states have used for overseas and military voters for years to comply with federal law regarding absentee ballots.

Poliquin ultimately dropped all his legal challenges a full seven weeks after Election Day but continued to pretend he was the rightful victor, falsely claiming that he’d won “the constitutional” vote and that victory was denied by a “black box computer algorithm” for an “illegal” election. Poliquin in 2022 refused to say if he’d accept another such defeat, though Golden’s plurality win made the matter moot.

Poliquin, though, didn’t hate ranked choice voting quite enough to give up any hope that it could give him the win after Election Day. On Sunday the Republican wrote, “Regardless of how this week’s rank choice ballot counting ends up for my race, President Joe Biden and the Democrats continue to control all the levers of power in Washington until noon on January 3 when the new Republican majority in the U.S. House is sworn in.”

PA State House: Pennsylvania Democrats declared victory in a crucial race for the state House on Wednesday after additional ballots were tallied, reversing what had been a 12-vote lead for Republican Todd Stephens and putting Democrat Missy Cerrato ahead by 37 votes in the 151st District. If Cerrato's advantage holds up, she'll give Democrats 102 seats in the 203-member chamber, setting the stage for state Rep. Joanna McClinton to become the first Black woman to serve as House speaker and capping a stunning election night that saw Democrats flip the 12 seats they needed to win their first majority in more than a decade.

Republicans, meanwhile, have moved into a small lead in the 142nd District, another seat in the Philly suburbs. However, even if Republican Joseph Hogan hangs on to defeat Democrat Mark Moffa, the best the GOP can hope for in the next session of the legislature is 101 seats—a minority. But it may yet be some time before we have final resolution for both races, as recounts and legal challenges are likely.

Criminal Justice: Five states in 2022 voted on ballot measures that aimed to remove language from their state constitutions that currently still allows slavery and indentured servitude as punishment for crimes, and four out of the five passed. Much like the U.S. Constitution's 13th Amendment, whose ban on slavery also has an exception for punishment for crime, a number of states enacted similar wording following the Civil War, and proponents hope that removing such exceptions will help eliminate forced labor in prisons.

In particular, voters this month approved amendments removing these exceptions in Alabama, where a more extensive recompiled constitution passed 77-23; Oregon, where Measure 112 prevailed 56-44; Tennessee, where Constitutional Amendment 3 won 80-20; and Vermont, where Proposal 2 succeeded 89-11.

Meanwhile in Louisiana, voters rejected Amendment 7 by 61-39 despite its unanimous passage by the GOP-run legislature. However, that outcome occurred after a Democrat who sponsored the amendment later came out against it, saying that a drafting error in the amendment's language could have unintentionally expanded the exceptions to the ban on slavery and involuntary servitude, so lawmakers may try again with different wording in the future.

Drug Law Reforms: Six states voted this month on whether to approve ballot measures that would either legalize marijuana or decriminalize other drugs, three of which were approved while three others were rejected.

In Maryland, voters approved legalizing marijuana by passing Question 4 by a 66-33 margin after Democratic lawmakers placed it on the ballot, and voters in Missouri did the same by passing voter-initiated Amendment 3 by a 53-47 spread. However, voters rejected marijuana legalization ballot initiatives in Arkansas by defeating Issue 4 by 56-44, North Dakota by voting down Statutory Measure 1 by 55-45, and South Dakota by opposing Initiated Measure 27 by 53-47.

Meanwhile in Colorado, which along with Washington was one of the first two states to legalize recreational marijuana back in 2012, voters this month passed Proposition 122 by 54-46 to decriminalize certain psychedelic plants and fungi such as psilocybin mushrooms and regulate their sale for therapeutic uses. Colorado is now the second state to decriminalize and regulate psilocybin mushrooms after Oregon voters did so in 2020.

Gun Safety: Iowans last week voted 65-35 to pass Amendment 1, which GOP lawmakers voted along party lines to place on the ballot as an amendment that will now add a constitutional right to "keep and bear arms." The amendment additionally subjects any and all laws restricting that right to a standard for judicial review that makes it much harder for such restrictions to survive in court.

In Oregon, voters headed in the completely opposite direction by passing citizen-initiated Measure 114 by a 51-49 margin to adopt one of the strictest gun safety laws in the country: It will require firearm purchasers to obtain a permit, submit to a federal background check, complete a hands-on safety class, and get fingerprinted before they can acquire a gun, and the new statute also bans magazines that can hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition.

OR Ballot: Oregon voters by a 51-49 spread have approved Measure 111, which was placed on the ballot by the Democratic legislature and will amend the state constitution to "ensure that every resident of Oregon has access to cost-effective, clinically appropriate and affordable health care as a fundamental right."

Senate

OH-Sen: NBC's Henry Gomez name-drops venture capitalist Mark Kvamme as one of the Republicans who is "either courting party insiders and donors or being mentioned as prospects." Kvamme, Gomez says, is close to former Gov. John Kasich, who was persona non grata in the Trump-era GOP even before he endorsed Biden in 2020. The article also name-drops Rep. Warren Davidson, a hardliner who considered bids for governor and Senate this year, as a possibility.

One person we thankfully won't have to kick around anymore, though, is former Treasurer Josh Mandel, who lost the 2022 primary to Sen.-elect J.D. Vance. "Josh is not running for Senate in 2024 and has no plans to return to politics," a longtime Mandel aide told Gomez.

NRSC: Montana Sen. Steve Daines was chosen Wednesday to chair the NRSC for the 2024 cycle months after Politico reported that he appeared to be the only candidate for the job.

Senate: Politico published an article early last month where reporter Burgess Everett asked each Democratic senator up in 2024, as well as allied independents Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, whether they'd be seeking re-election. Since then two vulnerable senators, Montana's Jon Tester and West Virginia's Joe Manchin, have reiterated that they haven't made up their minds, while Ohio's Sherrod Brown has announced he's in. The responses from the other incumbents to Everett are below:

AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema deflected questions by saying she was focused on re-electing homestate colleague Mark Kelly. Sinema has spent the last two years infuriating her party, and Rep. Ruben Gallego has been openly musing about launching a primary bid against her.

CA-Sen: Dianne Feinstein, who has faced serious questions about her cognitive health all year, has not discussed her plans, though Everett says that fellow Democrats are "already eyeing the seat as essentially open."

CT-Sen: Chris Murphy declared he has "no plans other than to run for re-election."

DE-Sen: Tom Carper, who considered retiring six years ago, said, "I'm gonna listen to people in Delaware, and I'm going to listen to my wife ... it's a bit early to be deciding."

HI-Sen: A spokesperson for Mazie Hirono said she's "running for re-election."

MA-Sen: A spokesperson for Elizabeth Warren also confirmed she would seek a third term.

MD-Sen: Ben Cardin said, "It's too early to make those types of decisions."

ME-Sen: Angus King divulged, "I'm thinking about it. And I'll probably make a decision early next year." He continued, "I feel great. I feel like I'm accomplishing something. So, no decision."

MI-Sen: Debbie Stabenow said she plans to run again.

MN-Sen: Amy Klobuchar declared it was "very clear" she's in.

NJ-Sen: Robert Menendez said it was a "long time from here to 2024, but I have every intention of running again." Weeks later, Semafor reported that the senator is again under federal investigation.

NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich revealed he was "putting all the pieces together" to run.

NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen unequivocally announced, "I'm definitely running."

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand divulged she was "really excited" to seek another term.

PA-Sen: Bob Casey said that running was "my goal," adding, "We try not to talk about it 'til it starts."

RI-Sen: Sheldon Whitehouse was in no hurry to reveal anything, saying instead, "I actually like to do those announcements as announcements. And this is not the place for that announcement." He added to Everett, "You're not my vector for an announcement."

VA-Sen: Tim Kaine remarked that, while he wouldn't make a decision until late 2022 or early 2023, he was "vigorously fundraising, doing everything that a candidate does."

VT-Sen: Bernie Sanders said that it was "too early to talk about" if he'd be seeking re-election.

WA-Sen: Maria Cantwell divulged she plans to run again but there's "plenty of time" before 2024.

WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin said, "I think I'm gonna run for re-election."

Governors

WV-Gov, WV-Sen: West Virginia Metro News relays that Republican Secretary of State Mac Warner "has his eye on" a bid against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in 2024, though it also notes that he could instead run to succeed termed-out Gov. Jim Justice or seek re-election.

The Senate contest got started Tuesday when GOP Rep. Alex Mooney launched a bid to take on Manchin, who has not yet announced if he'll run again, but the Republican primary for governor has been underway for almost a year longer. Back in December of 2021 auto dealer Chris Miller, who is the son of Rep. Carol Miller, declared he was in and would partially self-fund, and Metro News wrote last month that he had about $970,000 on-hand.

The younger Miller, columnist Steven Allen Adams wrote last year, "has mostly been front and center in his family's car dealership commercials, where Miller is known for wacky and humorous antics, including spoofing former president Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders." However, Adams added that Miller had plenty of connections of his own within GOP politics.

One person who probably won't want to see Miller in the governor's office, though, is Justice. Last month, the GOP governor and Rep. Carol Miller found themselves on opposite sides in the fight over Amendment Two, which among other things would have let the legislature exempt vehicles from personal property taxes. Justice cited the fact that the congresswoman's family owns seven auto dealerships in his quest to derail the measure, declaring, "Just ask yourself—the automobile dealers, you know, does Congresswoman Miller have a conflict? Are they going to get real, live money? They sure are." Voters went on to decisively reject Amendment 2.

Justice, for his part, has not ruled out a Senate bid, which would bring him into conflict with Mooney. The governor also had some choice words about his would-be primary rival during the Amendment 2 fight, saying, "From the standpoint of Congressman Mooney, I honestly don't know and I'm not throwing any rocks at Congressman Mooney, but I've been here for six years, but I've seen Congressman Mooney one time, one time in six years."

Justice went on to trash Mooney, a former Maryland state senator who only moved to the state in 2013 ahead of his first congressional bid, by asking, "Really and truly, does Congressman Mooney even know West Virginia exists?"

Legislatures

VA State Senate: The first big special election of the new election cycle is coming up fast, as Virginia officials just set Jan. 10 as the date for the race to replace Republican state Sen. Jen Kiggans, who will soon enter Congress after unseating Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria 52-48 in the redrawn 2nd District. The battle will have major implications for Democrats, who hold the Senate by a narrow 21-19 margin but could pad their majority with a win.

Three candidates have already announced plans to run. Virginia Beach Councilman Aaron Rouse, a former Virginia Tech football star who briefly played in the NFL, kicked off a bid on Monday with an endorsement from Luria. Rouse won an at-large seat on the city council in 2018, so he already represents about two-fifths of the district he's now running for. (He also briefly challenged Republican Mayor Bobby Dyer in 2020 but dropped out, citing the coronavirus pandemic.)

Former state Rep. Cheryl Turpin, who lost to Kiggans by a narrow 50.4 to 49.5 margin in 2019, likewise has said she'll run, which would set up a matchup with Rouse. While plans haven't yet been announced, the two will likely face off in a so-called firehouse primary, a small-scale nominating contest run by the Democratic Party (rather than the state). The lone Republican to enter so far is businessman Kevin Adams, a Navy veteran who doesn't appear to have run for office before.

Because the election is being held to complete the final year of Kiggans' term, it will take place in the old version of the 7th State Senate District in Virginia Beach, an area in the state's southeastern corner with a heavy Navy presence. Kiggans, a nurse practitioner and former Navy helicopter pilot, won her only term in the Senate in that 2019 race against Turpin for an open Republican seat. The tight result that year was very similar to the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, which saw Hillary Clinton narrowly edge out Donald Trump 46.8 to 46.5 in the district.

But while Joe Biden cruised in 2020, winning the 7th 54-44, Democratic performance dipped badly the following year, when Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe 52-48 in the governor's race. Democrats are naturally hoping to return to Biden's form, but this contest will very likely be another tossup.

The race to succeed Kiggans for a full term, however, should be a more one-sided affair. Redistricting not only gave the district a new number, the 22nd, but it made it considerably more Democratic, as Biden would have won 59-39. All three candidates in the special election had already announced they'd seek the 22nd when it first goes before voters in November of next year.

Mayors

Indianapolis, IN Mayor: Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett announced Tuesday that he'll seek a third term, which he says would be his last, next year. Hogsett kicked off his campaign days after state Rep. Robin Shackleford launched a primary bid against him. Should Hogsett win re-election, he'd be the first mayor to serve more than two terms since Republican William Hudnut completed his fourth and final term in 1991. The last person to try to secure a third term was Democratic Mayor Bart Peterson, who lost to Republican Greg Ballard in a 2007 upset.

Indianapolis spent decades as a GOP bastion after then-Mayor Richard Lugar consolidated it with the rest of Marion County in 1970, but it remains to be seen if Republicans will field a serious candidate to lead what's become reliably blue turf especially in recent years. Hogsett won an uncompetitive contest to succeed Ballard in 2015, and his landslide win four years later helped propel Democrats to a supermajority on the City-County Council. Biden took Marion County 63-34 in 2020, and it supported Democratic Senate candidate Thomas McDermott by a similar margin last week as he was badly losing statewide to GOP incumbent Todd Young.

Philadelphia, PA Mayor: The May Democratic primary swelled once again on Wednesday when businessman Jeff Brown, who owns 12 locations of the ShopRite grocery store chain, announced that he'd be competing to succeed termed-out Mayor Jim Kenney.

Brown is the first notable candidate who has never held elected office, and he says he plans to self-fund some of his bid. The Philadelphia Inquirer also notes that he "has long had connections in the city's Democratic political class," while a PAC he's been involved in called Philly Progress PAC took in $934,000 last year.

Brown, who started a nonprofit to provide food access to underserved neighborhoods, clashed with Kenney in 2016 when the mayor successfully pushed for a sweetened-beverage tax. However, Brown now says that he won't prioritize trying to repeal the tax, which the paper says has brought in $385 million in revenue.

Prosecutors

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney: The Republican-dominated state House voted Wednesday to impeach Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, who is one of the most prominent criminal justice reformers in the country, a move his fellow Democrats denounced as a power grab.  The state Senate will hold a trial at an unannounced later date, and it would take two-thirds of the upper chamber’s members to remove Krasner.

Republicans and an allied independent, John Yudichak, together hold 29 of the 50 seats, so they’d need to win over at least five Democrats to get the requisite 34 votes to oust the district attorney. No House Democrats, though, supported impeachment, while Republican state Rep. Michael Puskaric gave it the thumbs down. It’s possible the trial could take place after new members are sworn in for January but, because Democrats netted a seat last week, that would only make the math harder for Krasner’s detractors.

Republicans argued that, while the legislature hasn’t impeached anyone in nearly three decades, it was necessary to remove Krasner. “Lives have been lost, property has been destroyed and families have been crushed,” said the resolution, which argued that the district attorney had mismanaged his office and pushed policies that led to more unrest. Krasner, who was re-elected last year, responded that the GOP hasn’t provided “a shred of evidence” that he was at fault for a national rise in crime and that “history will harshly judge this anti-democratic authoritarian effort to erase Philly’s votes.”

Law professor Bruce Ledewitz also told the Philadelphia Inquirer, “There is very little likelihood here that there’s a legally sufficient basis for impeachment and removal.” Ledewitz noted that, even if Krasner is convicted by the state Senate, the courts have the power to intervene if they don’t feel his removal meets the standards required for impeachment.

Other Races

Suffolk County, NY Executive: Outgoing Rep. Lee Zeldin has been talked about as a possible RNC or state GOP chair following his 53-47 loss to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, and Politico also floats the idea that he could instead run next year to succeed termed-out Democrat Steve Bellone as Suffolk County executive. Zeldin carried this populous Long Island community 59-41 two years after Trump took it by all of 232 votes.

Another local Republican, county Comptroller John Kennedy, didn't rule out the idea of a second campaign for the top job last week just before he was re-elected 60-40. Kennedy challenged Bellone in 2019 but struggled with fundraising and lost 56-43.

On the Democratic side, venture capitalist Dave Calone kicked off his campaign all the way back in July by saying he'd already taken in $1 million, and he has no serious intra-party opposition so far. Calone previously competed in the 2016 primary to take on Zeldin in the 1st District but lost to Anna Throne-Holst in a 51-49 squeaker; Zeldin went on to easily turn back Throne-Holst 58-42.

Morning Digest: Democrats keep Senate after incumbents prevail in Arizona and Nevada

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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Leading Off

NV-Sen, AZ-Sen: Democrats learned that they’d kept control of the Senate Saturday evening when media organizations called Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory over Republican Adam Laxalt, a development that came one day after they made the same projection in Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly’s battle against Republican Blake Masters. The Senate battle isn’t over, though, as both parties are already spending in the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, a contest that will have major consequences even though the majority isn’t at stake.

Cortez Masto trailed on election night but gradually cut her deficit over the following days as ballots submitted by mail or through drop boxes were tabulated, and outlets called her race seconds after she took the lead on Saturday. Cortez Masto, whose win six years ago made her the nation’s first Latina senator, leads Laxalt 48.8-48.1 with 98% of the Associated Press’ estimated vote in, a tight victory that came after a campaign that attracted massive amounts of money from both sides.

Over in neighboring Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 52-46 with 93% of the estimated vote in. Kelly, like Cortez Masto, spent the 2022 cycle as one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the nation, but Masters proved to be one of the weakest GOP Senate nominees in a cycle full of them. In addition to being a truly bad fundraiser, Masters, as the University of Virginia’s J. Miles Coleman put it last month, “comes across as a 4chan guy.” Among many other things, Masters this year called Ted Kaczynski a "subversive thinker that's underrated" before belatedly acknowledging that it's "probably not great to be talking about the Unabomber while campaigning."

Wins by Cortez Masto and Kelly give Senate Democrats control of 50 seats, while Republicans are guaranteed to hold 49. However, we won’t know if Alaska will continue to be represented by Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who sometimes votes with the Biden administration, or hardliner Kelly Tshibaka until instant-runoff tabulations take place on Nov. 23: Tshibaka holds a narrow 44-43 edge with 80% of the estimated vote in, with Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley clocking in at 10% and 3%, respectively.

The final seat is in Georgia, where Warnock outpaced Walker 49.4-48.5 on Tuesday. Democrats are hoping that, now that control of the Senate isn’t on the line, Republicans will be less motivated to turn out for a scandal-plagued nominee who badly trailed the rest of the GOP ticket. The stakes remain high, though: A Warnock victory would leave Senate Democrats far less reliant on West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Kelly’s unreliable colleague, Kyrsten Sinema, and give Team Blue some breathing room ahead of a tough 2024 map.

georgia runoff

GA-Sen: The first Democratic attack ads of the runoff have launched, hitting Herschel Walker for his many personal failings, including paying a girlfriend to have an abortion. That story earned enormous media attention the instant the Daily Beast broke it last month and led to upheaval inside Walker's campaign, but it wasn't the subject of many ads prior to the first round of voting.

This time around, it's just one part of a new broadside from American Bridge, which Politico says is running a "seven-figure" paid media campaign "targeted to voters outside of the Atlanta media market." The spot features several different women who all paint Walker as a liar and a danger:

"Herschel Walker lies. He lies about his businesses. He lies about the way he's treated his family. His son says he's afraid of him and doesn't respect him. He's dangerous. Herschel Walker allegedly held a gun to his girlfriend's head. He lies about his beliefs about abortion. He paid for an abortion for his girlfriend and then he lied about it. Does he think the people of Georgia are stupid? Too many red flags. There's too much at stake. He does not deserve to represent us."

Republicans waded back into the fray a day earlier, with ads from the NRSC trying to tie Raphael Warnock to Joe Biden.

Election Calls

Quite a few contests still remain uncalled, but we’re tracking all of them on our continually updated cheat-sheet; we’ll cover each of them in the Digest once they’re resolved.

NV-Gov: Republican Joe Lombardo has unseated Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak, which makes this the one governor’s office the GOP flipped this year. Lombardo leads 49-47 with 98% of the estimated vote in, a win that gives Republicans back a post they held from the 1998 elections until Sisolak’s 2018 victory against Adam Laxalt.

AZ-04: Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton has fended off Republican Kelly Cooper, a far right extremist who won the nomination in August despite heavy spending from GOP outside groups that correctly saw him as a disastrous candidate. Stanton leads 57-43 with 94% of the estimated vote in; Biden won this constituency in the Phoenix area 54-44 two years ago.  

CA-15: Assemblyman Kevin Mullin has defeated his fellow Democrat, San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa, in the contest to succeed retiring Rep. Jackie Speier. Mullin leads 56-44 with 58% of the estimated vote in for a dark blue Bay Area constituency that includes most of San Mateo County and a portion of San Francisco. The winner had the backing of both Speier and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who sought reelection one seat to the north, and he also benefited from spending by the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC.    

CA-26: Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley has turned back Republican Matt Jacobs in a race that attracted some late spending from her allies at EMILY’s List. The incumbent leads 54-46 with 60% of the estimated vote in; Biden took this seat, which is based in Ventura County north of Los Angeles, 59-39.

MD-06: Democratic Rep. David Trone took the lead Friday as more ballots were counted, and Republican Neil Parrott conceded shortly before media outlets called the race. Trone leads 52-48 with 98% of the estimated vote in for a seat in Western Maryland and the northwestern D.C. exurbs that Biden took 54-44.

 OR-05: Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer has flipped this seat for her party by defeating Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in a seat that became open in May after McLeod-Skinner denied renomination to Blue Dog Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader. Chavez-DeRemer leads 51-49 with 94% of the estimated vote in for a 53-44 Biden seat located in the southern Portland suburbs and central Oregon. Chavez-DeRemer will be the first Latina to represent Oregon in Congress, a distinction she’d share with Andrea Salinas should the Democrat keep her lead in the 6th.

WA-03: Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez scored one of the biggest upsets of the cycle by beating Republican Joe Kent, an election denier who had defeated GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the August top-two primary, in a southwestern Washington seat that Trump took 51-47. Gluesenkamp Perez, who will be the second Latino to represent Washington in Congress after Herrera Beutler, leads 51-49 with 95% of the estimated vote in.

Herrera Beutler flipped a previous version of this seat during the 2010 GOP wave, and she fended off a serious Democratic offensive in 2020. The congresswoman, though, put herself in a different kind of political danger months later when she responded to the Jan. 6 attack by voting to impeach Trump. Trump himself went on to back Kent, who defended Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and called anyone arrested for Jan. 6 “political prisoners.” Kent also gave an interview to a Nazi sympathizer, though he insisted he thought his questioner was a local journalist after CNN broke this news in October.

Kent responded to his August win over Herrera Beutler by dubbing the district “deep red MAGA country,” and he seemed intent to do everything he could to test that out. The Seattle Times writes, “He called for all weapons available to the military, including machine guns, to be available to the public. He supported a national abortion ban, with no exceptions, and called for Dr. Anthony Fauci to be charged with murder.”  

Gluesenkamp Perez, who had lost a 2016 campaign for the Skamania County Board of Commissioners, in turn pitched herself as a moderate and ran ads where local Republicans condemned Kent as a dangerous extremist who would “defund the FBI” and looks up to Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene; Herrera Beutler, for her part, refused to say who she was backing. House Majority PAC also launched an ad buy against Kent in the final days of the race as major GOP groups remained on the sidelines, a gamble that may have made all the difference.

P.S. Gluesenkamp Perez’s victory puts House Democrats on track to represent every district that touches the Pacific Ocean, a feat they haven’t accomplished since before Washington became a state in 1889. Two Democratic incumbents on the California coast, 47th District Rep. Katie Porter and 49th District Rep. Mike Levin, have held the lead since election night, though their races haven’t been called yet.

Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola won’t know her fate until the state conducts instant-runoff tabulations on Nov. 23, but she also looks well positioned: Peltola is taking 47% of the vote with an estimated 80% in, so she’d only need to win a small number of second-choice votes to pull ahead.

NV Ballot: Question 3, which would establish the first top-five primary system in the nation, has passed 53-47, but it needs to win at the ballot box again in November of 2024 in order to go into effect two years later. That’s because Nevada requires voter-initiated constitutional initiatives to be approved in two successive general elections; amendments placed on the ballot by the legislature, by contrast, only need to be passed by voters once.

AZ-SoS, NV-SoS: Democrats Adrian Fontes and Cisco Aguilar have won their secretary of state races by beating a pair of QAnon allies who each denied that Donald Trump lost their respective swing states.

Fontes leads Mark Finchem 53-47 in Arizona with 93% of the estimated vote in, while Nevada’s Aguilar is outpacing Jim Marchant 49-47 with 98% of the estimated tally reporting. Fontes will succeed Katie Hobbs, a fellow Democrat who is running for governor, while Aguilar will replace termed-out Republican incumbent Barbara Cegavske.

Marchant, who among many other things claimed that anyone who won an election in Nevada since 2006 was “installed by the deep-state cabal,” assembled an “America First” slate of conspiracy theorist candidates running to control their state’s elections. Its roster included Finchem, who led the failed effort to overturn Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona, as well as Michigan's Kristina Karamo and New Mexico's Audrey Trujillo. Marchant, Karamo, and Finchem all participated in the same QAnon organized conference last year, with Finchem later holding a fundraiser in September featuring several QAnon notables.

All four members of this quartet, as well as Minnesota’s Kim Crockett, went down after an election cycle where the Democratic secretary of state candidates and their allies outspent Republicans by a 57 to 1 margin from July through late October. It wasn’t a complete shutout for the conspiracy theorists, though, as one member of Marchant’s slate, Diego Morales, prevailed in heavily Republican Indiana.

NV Treasurer: The Nevada Independent on Friday called this contest for Democratic incumbent Zach Conine over Republican Michele Fiore, an extremist who was too much even for some prominent members of her own party. With 98% of the estimated vote in, Conine leads 48-46.

State Legislatures: While Kansas Republicans failed to unseat Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, they preserved the two-thirds supermajority in the state House they need to override her vetoes; the GOP has long enjoyed this edge in the state Senate, which is only up in presidential years. Democrats appear to have netted one seat, but Republicans maintains a 85-40 edge.

Over in Vermont, though, Democrats and the left-wing Progressive Party together won 109 of the 150 state House seats, which once again gives them the ability to override GOP Gov. Phil Scott's vetoes, which they narrowly lost in 2020. WCAX says that Democrats, who on their own will have 104 representatives, will have more seats than ever even though there were 246 members until 1964. The two parties also appear to have finished the election with 23 of the 30 state Senate seats, which is the number they entered Tuesday with.

King County, WA Prosecutor: Leesa Manion will become both the first woman and person of color to serve as King County prosecutor now that her opponent, Federal Way Mayor Jim Ferrell, has conceded. Manion leads 57-43 with about 658,000 votes counted. 

Manion works as chief of staff to retiring incumbent Dan Satterberg, a former Republican who joined the Democratic Party in 2018, and Bolts wrote before the election that she "cast herself as a cautious reformer." Ferrell, who was backed by several ​​police associations and police unions, ran to her right, though, and argued he was more tough on crime.

Governors

IN-Gov: Democrat Jennifer McCormick, a former Republican who was Indiana's last elected schools chief, says she's created an exploratory committee ahead of a possible bid to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb in 2024.

McCormick was elected state superintendent as a Republican in 2016 by unseating Democrat Glenda Ritz, who was the last Democrat to win a state-level office, but she immediately began feuding with the rest of her party over her desire to increase scrutiny over charter schools. Things only got worse as McCormick's tenure continued, and she decided in 2018 not to seek re-election two years down the line. (Republicans initially passed a law to make her post an appointed office starting in 2024, but they moved up the timeline after her retirement announcement.)

McCormick burned what few bridges remained with GOP leaders in 2020 when she endorsed several Democratic contenders, including Holcomb foe Woody Myers. Myers even announced that he'd keep her on as superintendent, something McCormick said she'd accept because of her "outrage" over the state's "woefully underfunded" education system, but Holcomb's landslide win made the point moot. McCormick went on to join the Democratic Party the next year.

LA-Gov: The state GOP's executive committee provided a very early endorsement to Attorney General Jeff Landry on Nov. 6, but while his allies hoped this stamp of approval would help the party avoid the intra-party strife that damaged it in 2019, it doesn't appear to have worked as intended.

Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser, a likely Landry opponent in next October's all-party primary to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, tweeted, "This endorsement process looks more like communist China than the Louisiana we know and love." State Sen. Sharon Hewitt, who recently confirmed her own interest in running, piled on, "the citizens of Louisiana do not need backroom deals and political insiders telling them who should be our next governor."

Conservative megadonor Eddie Rispone, who lost the 2019 campaign to Edwards after a costly battle against then-Rep. Ralph Abraham, successfully pushed for party leaders to support Landry in order to avoid a repeat of what happened to him. Abraham, who retired the next year, is also for Landry.

Several members of the Republican State Central Committee, though, took the smaller executive committee to task for ramming through the endorsement without a vote of the full body, and one even publicly declared, "For a party that's been harping for two years about election integrity and honoring the will of all legitimate voters, tonight's action by the state GOP executive committee stinks like yesterday's diapers." State GOP chair Louis Gurvich responded Thursday that, while he'd wanted this news to be announced after the midterms, "the media reported the endorsement as the result of a leak."

Landry is the only prominent Republican who has announced a campaign, but plenty of others are considering. Sen. John Kennedy didn't dismiss the idea earlier this year, and he also wouldn't shoot the prospect down Tuesday right after winning a new six-year term. He instead merely responded to questions about the gubernatorial race by saying, "I am so happy to be re-elected to the Senate and tonight that is the only thing I have on my mind."

Kennedy's colleague, Bill Cassidy, also said in March he'd decide by the end of this year, and LaPolitics' Jeremy Alford relays that Cassidy "is said to be leaning toward a run." Another GOP member of Congress, Rep. Garret Graves, also promised a decision after the midterms, while state Treasurer John Schroder is considering as well. Plenty of other Republicans may also take a look at running to succeed Edwards in this conservative state.

Mayors

Indianapolis, IN Mayor: State Rep. Robin Shackleford announced Thursday that she would challenge Mayor Joe Hogsett in next year's Democratic primary, and her election would make her both the first woman and African American to lead Indianapolis. We're still waiting to learn, though, whether Hogsett will be seeking a third term.

The incumbent said Wednesday, "I intend to be making decisions and announcements probably by the end of the month … It's probably 50/50 proposition right now." The Indianapolis Star's James Briggs, however, writes that Hogsett's campaign will hold an event Tuesday that he believes will be the mayor's re-election launch. Hogsett began 2022 with $2.4 million on hand, while Shackleford will largely be starting from scratch.

Shackleford, who has been an intra-party critic of the local Democratic establishment, herself argued that, while she supports Hogsett's efforts to improve downtown Indianapolis, he has ignored other neighborhoods badly in need. Briggs also writes that the mayor "was pushed into outlining a Black agenda after having argued that his policies would benefit people of all races" during his 2019 race. He adds, "The events of Hogsett's second term, including racial justice protests that devolved into riots and persistent concerns over police misconduct, likely will put a brighter spotlight on race next year."

It remains to be seen if Republicans will try to make a serious effort to flip the mayor's office in what's become a heavily Democratic community, but IndyPolitics.org publisher Abdul-Hakim Shabazz says he's thinking about running for Team Red.  

Philadelphia, PA Mayor: City Councilmember Helen Gym has been talked about for years as a potential candidate to succeed termed-out Mayor Jim Kenney next year, and she hinted at her interest by telling the Philadelphia Inquirer that "the right woman" would win the May Democratic primary. Gym, who is one of the more high profile progressives in Pennsylvania politics, became the first Asian American elected to the City Council when she won a citywide seat in 2015.

Former state Sen. Vince Fumo also name-dropped state Rep. Amen Brown as a possible contender, but Brown himself doesn't appear to have shown any public interest yet. Former City Councilmember Allan Domb, whom the paper calls "one of Philadelphia's most notable real estate barons," for his part resigned from office in August to focus on a possible bid, but he has yet to jump in.

Domb quit the City Council because Philadelphia requires local elected officials to step down in order to run for mayor, and four Democrats have done just that so far: former City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart and former City Council members Cherelle Parker, Derek Green, and Maria Quiñones-Sánchez. Gym, Rhynhart, Parker, and Quiñones-Sánchez would each be the first woman to lead the city. It only takes a simple plurality to win the Democratic nod.

General elections are almost always afterthoughts in this dark blue city, but a few non-Democrats are making noises about getting in. The Inquirer says that David Oh, who is the only Republican member of the City Council, is mulling the idea.

Former Lt. Gov. Mike Stack also told the paper that he could campaign as an independent, modestly saying, "If Mike Stack's in it, I'd bet on Mike Stack." Stack is a former Democratic office holder who developed a truly awful relationship with his boss, Gov. Tom Wolf, after they were elected in 2014 after winning separate primaries: Wolf even pulled the lieutenant governor's security detail in 2017 over allegations that Stack and his wife verbally abused his protectors and other state employees.

Wolf, though, didn't need to deal with him for too much longer. Four candidates, including John Fetterman, challenged Stack for renomination in 2018, and the result did not go well for the incumbent: Fetterman took first with 37%, while Stack lagged in fourth with just 17%. The Inquirer wrote in 2020 that Stack had "moved to California to try his hand at stand-up comedy and screenwriting," and you can probably guess how well that went.

Morning Digest: Oregon Republicans threatens suit to overturn election results because of attack ad

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Click here to subscribe.

Leading Off

OR-06: Here's something you don't see often—or ever: Republican Mike Erickson released an internal poll showing him leading his Democratic opponent, Andrea Salinas, the very same day that he filed a lawsuit demanding Salinas take down an attack ad by citing a law that he recently threatened to use to overturn the election should he lose.

To pick apart this strange turn of events, we'll start with Erickson's survey from Cygnal, which shows him beating Salinas 44-39 in Oregon's brand new 6th District, a seat Joe Biden would have taken 55-42. The last polls we saw out of this district, which is based in the Salem area and Portland's southwestern suburbs, were both from mid-August: The GOP firm Clout Research gave Erickson an even larger 43-34 advantage, while a GBAO internal for Salinas had her up 48-45.

Despite these optimistic numbers for Republicans, however, both the Congressional Leadership Fund and the NRCC have so far avoided spending here, even though their opponents at the DCCC and House Majority PAC have together dropped over $1.4 million. Given the district's lean, it's exceedingly unlikely that the GOP's two biggest House groups have steered clear of this race because they feel supremely confident, especially since a conservative organization called Take Back Oregon PAC just launched a $300,000 TV buy this week.

Salinas' side has run several commercials focusing both on allegations that Erickson paid for a girlfriend to have an abortion in 2000—years before Herschel Walker did the same—as well as stories around his 2016 arrest. The latter is the focus of his new lawsuit and a cease and desist notice he recently sent to Salinas. In that letter, Erickson threatened to invoke a state law that the Oregon Capitol Chronicle writes "prohibits knowingly making false statements about a candidate, political committee or ballot measure."

Reporter Julia Shumway explains, "If a judge determines that a candidate made a false statement that cost their opponent an election, the law states that the candidate will be removed as a nominee or elected official." But she adds, "Over several decades, Oregon courts have interpreted that law to exclude opinions or statements that could reasonably be interpreted as true." It's also not clear whether this law has ever been successfully employed to reverse the results of an election, and Erickson's attorney, Jill Gibson, cited no such examples in her letter.

In his newly filed lawsuit, Erickson didn't actually present any demands regarding overturning the upcoming election but instead asked a state court to order Salinas to stop airing the ads in question and "to retract the false statements by airing correction advertisements with the same frequency and broadcast location as the false advertisements." He is also seeking $800,000 in monetary damages, which he claims would cover the cost of "commercials to correct the false statements."

The complaint insists that Salinas' ads are "false" because Erickson "has never been charged with illegal possession of drug." To that end, Gibson's letter cited a recent story from The Oregonian in which Hood River County District Attorney Carrie Rasmussen said that the court documents that those allegations came from were incorrect.

Instead, Erickson's attorney from that case, Tara Lawrence, insisted that she'd made a "mistake" by filing a plea agreement stating that the Rasmussen's office had "agreed to dismiss felony possession of controlled substance upon tender of guilty plea." An attorney for Salinas, however, cited that very statement in support of the ad's truthfulness in a letter and argued that "a charge is a charge, whether or not the DA files it."

Before Erickson filed his lawsuit, Salinas' campaign shrugged off his threats, saying in a statement, "Mike Erickson's threats to overturn the election if he doesn't win should raise major concerns for Oregonians who cherish democracy."

The Downballot

After an eruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.

Co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss Dr. Oz, puppy killer; the GOP's hypocrisy regarding Herschel Walker's ever-growing list of scandals; Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s desperate attempts to avoid testifying in an abortion case; and Brazil's presidential runoff, where former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva remains the favorite despite far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro's better-than-expected first-round showing.

Please subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also find a transcript for this week's episode right here.

3Q Fundraising

  • CO-Sen: Joe O'Dea (R): $2 million raised, additional $1 million self-funded
  • GA-Sen: Herschel Walker (R): $12 million raised, $7 million cash-on-hand
  • OH-Sen: Tim Ryan (D): $17.2 million raised
  • PA-Sen: John Fetterman (D): $22 million raised
  • WI-Sen: Mandela Barnes (D): $20 million raised
  • GA-Gov: Brian Kemp (R-inc): $29 million raised, $15.4 million cash-on-hand
  • OH-Gov: Mike DeWine (R-inc): $1.5 million raised (in September), $12.5 cash-on-hand; Nan Whaley (D): $1.2 million raised (in September), $3.9 million cash-on-hand
  • CA-22: Rudy Salas (D): $1.2 million raised
  • CO-08: Yadira Caraveo (D): $1.5 million raised, $550,000 cash-on-hand
  • FL-15: Alan Cohn (D): $400,000 raised
  • IA-02: Ashley Hinson (R-inc): $1.25 million raised, $1.7 million cash-on-hand
  • IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D): $1.5 million raised
  • MT-01: Monica Tranel (D): $1.1 million raised
  • NH-02: Annie Kuster (D-inc): $1 million raised, $2.6 million cash-on-hand
  • NM-02: Gabe Vasquez (D): $1.55 million raised
  • NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc): $2.25 million raised, $600,000 cash-on-hand; Colin Schmitt (R): $500,000 raised, $500,000 cash-on-hand
  • PA-17: Chris Deluzio (D): $1.4 million raised
  • VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R): $1 million raised
  • VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (D-inc): $2.2 million raised

Senate

CO-Sen: Ron Hanks, a far-right state representative who lost the June Republican primary to Joe O'Dea 54-46, announced this week that he was endorsing Libertarian Brian Peotter as "the only conservative on the ballot." Hanks made it clear exactly what he thought of his former intra-party rival in his statement, declaring, "There is only a fake Republican, a pay-to-play opportunist with no conservative values or agenda. He merits no support, and he's not likely to get much." Hanks added, "Let the COGOP know we will have a party with conservative principles, not squishy candidates with a power fetish."

GA-Sen: While Republican Herschel Walker has spent days insisting that he did he not pay for his then-girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009 and that he also doesn't know who his accuser could be, the Daily Beast reported Wednesday night that the woman in question had a child with Walker a few years after her abortion. The woman, whose identity the publication has withheld, said of Walker's denials, "Sure, I was stunned, but I guess it also doesn't shock me, that maybe there are just so many of us that he truly doesn't remember." She continued, "But then again, if he really forgot about it, that says something, too."

The next day, Walker held a press conference where he again denied that he even knew who this woman was. However, the Daily Beast further reported that back in June, when the site first broke the news that Walker was father to three previously undisclosed children, the candidate himself had confirmed she was the mother of one of them.

Just before these latest developments, Walker released an ad against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock that played footage of a Democratic commercial focused on reports that the Republican had threatened to kill his ex-wife. "As everyone knows, I had a real battle with mental health—even wrote a book about it," Walker declared. CNN's Andrew Kaczynski quickly noted that this spot, which was aired "presumably in response to Daily Beast story," mentioned Walker's 2008 memoir, which was published the year before the candidate allegedly paid for the abortion.

NC-Sen: NBC reports that Senate Majority PAC has booked an additional $4 million to help Democrat Cheri Beasley, a move that will bring its total spending here to $10.5 million. The reservation comes at a time when Republican outside groups have been deploying considerably more money here than Democrats: While Politico reported Tuesday that Beasley has outspent Republican Ted Budd by $9 million in advertising, data from OpenSecrets shows that Budd's super PAC allies have outpaced Beasley’s supporters $34.9 million to $7.8 million.

NE-Sen: Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse announced on Thursday that he would resign to become president of the University of Florida, which has named the Republican as the sole finalist for the post. Multiple media outlets report that Sasse's departure will occur before the end of the year, which would allow Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts, who will leave office in early 2023, to appoint a successor. The Nebraska Examiner says that a special election would take place for the final two years of Sasse's term in 2024, when fellow GOP Sen. Deb Fischer will also be up.

Sasse held the post of president of Midland University in Nebraska when he entered the 2014 primary to succeed Sen. Mike Johanns, a fellow Republican who unexpectedly decided to retire after one term. Sasse had the backing of the deep-pocketed Club for Growth but still looked like the underdog for most of his campaign against former state Treasurer Shane Osborn, a retired Navy pilot who was detained by China in 2001 after his plane collided with a Chinese fighter.

Osborn's bid, however, began to fall apart weeks before the primary after the media reported that he'd distributed a bogus Navy memo to defend his decision to land in China. Sasse soon pulled ahead in the polls, while his allies took action late in the campaign to stop a third contender, wealthy banking executive Sid Dinsdale, from sneaking through. Ultimately, Sasse beat Dinsdale by a convincing 49-22 margin, and he easily won the general election in this red state.

The new senator became a media favorite in D.C., especially after he emerged as a loud Donald Trump critic during the 2016 campaign, saying at one point that "if the Republican Party becomes the party of David Duke, Donald Trump, I'm out." Sasse, though, was anything but out after Trump took the White House, and while he still vocally trashed him at times, the senator nevertheless loyally voted the administration's way.

There was talk in 2020 that Sasse could be on the receiving end of a Trump-inspired primary challenge, but no one serious emerged even before Trump himself endorsed the incumbent. Sasse had no trouble winning a second term, though he went on to become one of seven Senate Republicans to vote to convict Trump the next year following his second impeachment. The Nebraskan, though, still voted the party line on all other major issues.

UT-Sen: Put Utah First, a group funded by Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, has dropped another $900,000 to aid conservative independent Evan McMullin, which takes its total investment here to $2.65 million.

Polls:

  • AZ-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 51, Blake Masters (R): 45
  • IA-Sen: Cygnal (R) for Iowans for Tax Relief: Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 54, Mike Franken (D): 40 (July: 52-43 Grassley)
  • NV-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Adam Laxalt (R): 48, Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 46

Governors

OR-Gov: Republican Christine Drazan has debuted a commercial accusing Democrat Tina Kotek of blocking an investigation into sexual abuse allegations, but The Oregonian's Jamie Goldberg writes, "Even by the traditionally loosened standards for political ads, that assertion is untrue, according to independent investigations and news reports."

Drazan's commercial declares that as speaker of the state House, Kotek "blocked an investigation into repeated sexual abuse because she was worried about how it would make her look." The complaints in question were about Republican Jeff Kruse—a member of the state Senate, not the state House. Unsurpirsingly, the speaker noted after the allegations became public that she had no influence over members of the upper chamber and said she did not have knowledge of the complaints against Kruse.

Goldberg writes, "No subsequent news reporting has showed Kotek covered up sexual abuse, although she did provide privacy to some victims who spoke up after 2018 to allege harassment by House members." The speaker was one of several lawmakers who initially refused to comply when the state Labor Bureau issued subpoenas after legislative attorneys argued the requests documents could reveal the identity of Kruse's accusers, but Goldberg says that a court order ultimately led Kotek and others to comply.

Polls:

  • AZ-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Katie Hobbs (D): 49, Kari Lake (R): 46
  • IA-Gov: Cygnal (R) for Iowans for Tax Relief: Kim Reynolds (R-inc): 59, Deidre DeJear (D): 38 (July: 56-41 Reynolds)
  • MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Tim Walz (D-inc): 50, Scott Jensen (R): 40 (Sept.: 51-33 Walz)
  • NV-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Joe Lombardo (R): 48, Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 46

House

FL-13: Progress Pinellas has dropped another $2.2 million to support Democrat Eric Lynn, which takes its total investment here to $6.7 million. The Tampa Bay Times reported in April that the group is funded by hedge fund manager Justin Ishbia, a Lynn cousin who usually contributes to Republicans.

MI-07: The Congressional Leadership Fund is running a new ad attacking Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin over recent reports that she’s been leasing a condo from a donor named Jerry Hollister, who serves as director of government relations for a medical manufacturing company called Niowave. CLF cites a Detroit News story noting that Slotkin had signed a 2020 letter supporting a Department of Energy program that awarded a total of $28 million to Niowave in 2019 and 2021, which the narrator suggests is "shady."

Slotkin's campaign responded to the initial stories by noting that she never mentioned Niowave in that missive, and that the Republican she defeated in 2018, Rep. Mike Bishop, had previously signed a similar letter. Her team declared the congresswoman had "never done anything in Congress that inappropriately benefits his company" and that she was "paying market rate rent to a landlord, just like thousands of mid-Michiganders."

MN-02: The Minnesota Reformer's Deena Winter reported Wednesday that, while Republican Tyler Kistner spent his unsuccessful 2020 campaign suggesting that he'd been in combat, Marine records show that was never the case. Winter notes that Kistner, who is again the GOP nominee, would have received a combat action ribbon had he seen battle, which he's acknowledged he doesn't have.

Two years ago, Kistner was facing off against several fellow Republicans, including Air Force veteran Erika Cashin, ahead of the GOP party convention, where Minnesota nominations are often decided. Kistner said at the time he couldn't turn over documents about his service, but he declared in the lead up to the gathering that he'd put the enemy "six feet under" and had "been on the wrong end of a loaded weapon." The candidate also referenced the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and said, "I've been in such conflicts."

Cashin said in response at the time, "Tyler Kistner has said he is 'the most decorated military member in this race,' and has made multiple statements needing clarification." She also challenged him to release his records, arguing, "Tyler can put these questions to rest by simply releasing his DD 214 and proving what he has said is true." Kistner, though, won the party endorsement without publicizing those documents, and Cashin and his other foes dropped out afterwards rather than go on to the primary. Kistner ultimately lost the general election to Democratic Rep. Angie Craig 48-46.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is backing Kistner's second bid to unseat Craig, had been airing an ad saying he'd been in "four combat deployments." The progressive group VoteVets, though, asked stations to take down these spots because Kistner had actually served in Japan and Korea, which are not combat zones. CLF, for its part, claims it distributed an "incorrect version of the ad and fixed it ourselves on the same day."

A Kistner consultant named Billy Grant insisted his client had never lied during the 2020 race. Grant told Winter that the "six feet under" line referred to an operation where a "partner force effectively killed more than eight violent extremist organizations in the North African region," where Kistner helped coordinate the evacuation of seven injured soldiers. Grant also argues that Kistner had been telling the truth about being on the "wrong end of a loaded weapon" because he'd gotten into an argument with an allied commander who had pulled a gun on him before the matter was resolved.

NY-11, NY-19: Siena College is out with a pair of surveys for Spectrum News giving each party the lead in a New York House contest.

Over in the 11th District, which includes all of Staten Island and a portion of Brooklyn, freshman Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis enjoys a 49-43 edge in her rematch against Democrat Max Rose. The sample also finds Republican Lee Zeldin with a small 46-42 advantage against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in a constituency Trump would have taken 53-46.

In the Hudson Valley-based 19th, meanwhile, Siena has Democrat Josh Riley beating Republican Marc Molinaro 46-41. The school also finds Zeldin ahead 46-45 in this swingy turf, which would have backed Biden 51-47.

Attorneys General & Secretaries of State

AZ-SoS, NV-SoS: SSRS, polling for CNN, finds election deniers with small leads in a pair of secretary of state races taking place in crucial swing states. Mark Finchem posts a 49-45 edge over Democrat Adrian Fontes in Arizona, while fellow Republican Jim Marchant enjoys a similar 46-43 edge against Cisco Aguilar in Nevada. Last week, the progressive group End Citizens United released internals from GSG showing Fontes ahead 46-44. Fontes is also getting some new outside support, as CNN reports that the Democratic organization iVote will spend $5 million to aid him.

IA-AG: The Republican firm Cygnal's new survey for the conservative Iowans for Tax Relief shows Republican Brenna Bird outpacing longtime Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller 46-43. Back in July, Cygnal found Miller, who is seeking a historic 11th term, ahead by a narrow 45-44 margin.

IN-SoS: IndyPolitics.com recently published a story in which two women charged that Diego Morales, who is the Republican nominee for secretary of state, sexually harassed and groped them. One said the incident took place in 2007, while the other said her encounter with Morales took place a few years later. Morales soon put out a statement saying, "The claims being made against me are false and I unequivocally deny all of them." He faces Democrat Destiny Wells in November.

Ad Roundup

Morning Digest: Senate GOP has a big ad spending edge, but Democrats get more ‘bang for their buck’

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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Leading Off

Senate: NBC reports that Republicans have outspent Democrats $106 million to $93 million over the last three weeks across the nine Senate battlegrounds, but, because so many GOP candidates are relying on super PACs to make up for their underwhelming fundraising, they aren't getting as much "bang for their buck" as their rivals. That's because, as we've written before, FCC regulations give candidates—but not outside groups—discounted rates on TV and radio.

Perhaps no race better demonstrates this in action than the Arizona Senate race. The GOP firm OH Predictive Insights relays that during the week of Sept. 19, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and his allies outspent Republican Blake Masters' side 52-48 in advertising. Anyone just looking at raw dollar amounts would conclude that the two parties aired about the same number of ads during this period, but that's not the case at all. In reality, Kelly's side had a 4-1 advantage in ​​gross ratings points, which measure how many times, on average, members of an ad's target audience have seen it.

Republicans can blame Masters, whom NBC says has spent all of $9,000 on ads during most of September, for much of the imbalance. The Senate Leadership Fund last week canceled all its planned ad time in Arizona while arguing that other super PACs would step in, and this data shows why Masters badly needs this prediction to finally come true.

Outside groups, though, can still air more ads than well-funded candidates if they're willing and able to spend massive amounts the way the GOP is in Ohio. Cleveland.com's Andrew Tobias reports that Republicans are airing 20% more commercials than their Democratic foes in the Buckeye State after spending or reserving almost three times as much. Democrat Tim Ryan, writes Tobias, is responsible for 83% of the ads coming from his side compared to just 8% for Vance, but the Senate Leadership Fund has committed $28 million here to bail out its underwhelming nominee.

Senate

NC-Sen: Both Democrat Cheri Beasley and her allies at Senate Majority PAC are airing new commercials charging that when Republican Ted Budd's farm company, AgriBioTech, went bankrupt in 2000, it chose to repay itself rather than pay back the small farmers and creditors it owed millions to. "The Budds took $10 million and left over 1,000 farmers holding the bag," Beasley's narrator argues, while SMP declares, "One grower said, 'we were the little guy,' 'we got screwed.'"

The story was first reported last year by the Washington Post's Michael Kranish, who wrote that "a trustee for farmers and other creditors alleged that his [Budd's] father, Richard Budd, improperly transferred millions of dollars in assets to his family, including Ted Budd." The candidate was not an official at ABT, though the story identifies him as a "significant shareholder." The trustee, which named him as a defendant in their civil case, also accused Budd of having "acted in concert" with his father "in connection with the fraudulent transfers."

The matter was ultimately settled in 2005, with Kranish saying that the "Budd entities" agreed to pay "less than half of the amount initially earmarked for the farmers and other creditors" without admitting to any wrongdoing. The settlement left some bad feelings, though, with one Wyoming farmer telling the Post, "We got screwed and there was not a freaking thing we could do about it. There was no way to fight multimillionaires."

Richard Budd, who became chief executive of ABT after it bought his family's seed company, defended the candidate to Kranish, arguing, "Your attempts to tie my son to this business are dishonest and offensive. I wish my personal efforts to save ABT had been successful, but they were not." Ted Budd's campaign also denied any wrongdoing, saying the trustee's claims were "untrue allegations that are typical in that sort of litigation."

Budd and his allies at the Senate Leadership Fund, meanwhile, are each running commercials arguing that Beasley wants 87,000 more IRS agents, which continues to be a popular line of attack in GOP ads across the country. As we've written before, the agency reportedly will use the funds provided by the Inflation Reduction Act to replace many of the nearly 50,000 of its employees who could retire over the next five years. Many of the thousands of newly created IRS jobs beyond those positions would be in customer service and information technology.

And while the SLF has run ad after ad accusing Democrats of hating the police, its own commercial features menacing footage of what NBC says is "police raids and special agents at a gun range." Those videos accompany the narrator's prediction that "Beasley's gonna knock on your door with an army of new IRS agents" and that she "backs the liberal scheme to spend billions auditing the middle class, sending the IRS beast to collect her taxes on working families."

However, even Trump-appointed IRS Director Charles Rettig has stated that the agency would not crack down on those making less than $400,000, explaining that the beefed up enforcement of tax evasion would only target corporations and the richest 1-2% of households.

PA-Sen: John Fetterman is airing another commercial pushing back on Republican Mehmet Oz and his allies' ads hitting the Democrat's work as head of the state Board of Pardons, which has been the GOP's favorite line of attack in the general election.

"Here's the truth: John gave a second chance to those who deserved it―nonviolent offenders, marijuana users," Montgomery County Sheriff Sean Kilkenny tells the audience, continuing, "He voted with law enforcement experts nearly 90% of the time. He reunited families and protected our freedom―and he saved taxpayer money." Kilkenny adds, "Dr. Oz doesn't know a thing about crime. He only knows how to help himself."

The GOP, though, is trying to push a very different line. Some of the party's favorite targets have been Lee and Dennis Horton, brothers who spent 27 years in prison after being convicted of second degree murder. The two in 1993 gave a ride to a friend named Robert Leaf who had just killed someone in a robbery, though they have always maintained that they didn't know Leaf had just committed murder. Gov. Tom Wolf last year commuted the Hortons' life sentences after Fetterman and prison officials championed their case, and the two went on to take jobs on Fetterman's Senate campaign.

Oz's campaign, though, has been happy to try to turn them into a liability for their boss, saying, "If John Fetterman cared about Pennsylvania's crime problem, he'd prove it by firing the convicted murderers he employs on his campaign." Fetterman, for his part, told the New York Times that if Republicans "destroy" his political career for advocating for people like the Hortons, "then so be it."

Polls:

AZ-Sen: Suffolk University for the Arizona Republic: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 49, Blake Masters (R): 42, Marc Victor (L): 2

NC-Sen: GSG (D) for Cheri Beasley: Cheri Beasley (D): 46, Ted Budd (R): 46 (May: 45-45 tie)

OH-Sen: Siena College for Spectrum News: Tim Ryan (D): 46, J.D. Vance (R): 43

PA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) for WTXF-TV: John Fetterman (D): 45, Mehmet Oz (R): 42

PA-Sen: Marist College: Fetterman (D): 51, Oz (R): 41

Governors

PA-Gov: Campaign finance reports covering the period of June 7 to Sept. 19 are out, and they show that Democrat Josh Shapiro's $25.4 million haul utterly dwarfed the $3.2 million that Republican Doug Mastriano took in. Shapiro goes into the final weeks with a $10.9 million to $2.6 million cash-on-hand edge over Mastriano, who still has not so much as reserved any TV time and who recently lamented he's "[r]eally not finding a lot of support from the national-level Republican organizations."

P.S. Politico's Holly Otterbein flags that Mastriano received a $500 donation from Andrew Torba, the founder of the white supremist social network Gab. That's still far less than the $5,000 that Mastriano paid Gab in April for "campaign consulting," though.

Polls:

AZ-Gov: Suffolk University for the Arizona Republic: Katie Hobbs (D-inc): 46, Kari Lake (R): 45

CT-Gov: Western New England University for CTInsider and WFSB: Ned Lamont (D-inc): 55, Bob Stefanowski (R): 40

ME-Gov: University of New Hampshire: Janet Mills (D-inc): 53, Paul LePage (R): 39, Sam Hunkler (I): 1

OH-Gov: Siena College for Spectrum News: Mike DeWine (R-inc): 55, Nan Whaley (D): 32

PA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (R) for WTXF-TV: Josh Shapiro (D): 52, Doug Mastriano (R): 37

PA-Gov: Marist College: Shapiro (D): 53, Mastriano (R): 40

Quinnipiac University last week gave Lamont a similar 57-40 lead in its home state.

Early September numbers from the progressive Maine People's Resource Center showed Mills up 49-38 in a race that hasn't gotten much attention from pollsters.

House

MT-01: Democrat Monica Tranel has publicized an internal from Impact Research that shows her trailing Republican Ryan Zinke only 45-43 in this newly-created seat in the western part of the state. This is the first poll we've seen from this 52-45 Trump constituency.

House: The Washington Post reports that top allies of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy were involved in a serious effort to deny the GOP nod to several House candidates they feared would either threaten his power or prove to be weak general election candidates, a drive the paper says they concealed during the primaries by sending cash "from top GOP donors through organizations that do not disclose their donors or have limited public records."

Their most prominent target was North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who was a massive pain even before the far-right freshman claimed that an unidentified colleague had invited him to an "orgy" and that he'd witnessed prominent conservatives doing "a key bump of cocaine." Cawthorn lost renomination to state Sen. Chuck Edwards after a group called Results for N.C. spent $1.7 million against the incumbent, and the Post writes that two McCarthy allies were part of its effort.

The paper adds that the minority leader's people were involved in the successful drives to block Anthony Sabatini in Florida's 7th District and Carl Paladino in New York's 23rd, who were each attacked by a newly-established group called American Liberty Action PAC. Both men blamed McCarthy for what happened, and the Post writes that his allies were indeed working to stop them: "They would have been legislative terrorists whose goal was fame," explained one unnamed source.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is close to the GOP leadership, also openly got involved in several more primaries, though it got decidedly mixed results for the $7 million it spent. CLF's ads helped secure general election berths for California Reps. Young Kim and David Valadao; Mississippi Rep. Michael Guest; and Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei. CLF also managed to advance Morgan Luttrell through the primary for Texas' open 8th District over a candidate backed by the troublesome Freedom Caucus, while it spent $40,000 on get out the vote calls for Florida Rep. Daniel Webster.

The super PAC, though, failed to get its preferred nominees across the finish line elsewhere. In Arizona's 4th, restaurateur Kelly Cooper overcame $1.5 million in CLF spending meant to ensure that establishment favorite Tanya Wheeless was Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton's rival instead. Democrats have since launched commercials faulting Cooper for, among other things, having "compared federal law enforcement agents to Nazis and the Gestapo."

CLF also fell short in its efforts to block Karoline Leavitt in New Hampshire's 1st and Brandon Williams in New York's 22nd, while another organization it funded couldn't prevent Joe Kent from beating out Washington Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary.

But CLF's worst failure is arguably in North Carolina's 1st District where its $600,000 offensive wasn't enough to stop Sandy Smith. Democrats have spent the general election running commercials focusing on the abuse allegations that surfaced against her during the May primary, including a new spot highlighting how her daughter and two former husbands have accused her of domestic violence.

Obituaries

Mark Souder: Indiana Republican Mark Souder, who was elected to the House during the 1994 red wave but resigned in 2010 after revealing an affair with a staffer, died Monday at the age of 72. Souder, who was perhaps best known for his advocacy of abstinence education, was an ardent conservative, though he defied his party leaders in two notable occasions early in his career: Souder was part of the failed 1997 revolt against Newt Gingrich, and he voted against two of the four articles of impeachment against President Bill Clinton the next year.

Souder got his start as an aide to then-Rep. Dan Coats, and in 1994 he decisively won a six-way primary to reclaim the Fort Wayne-based 4th District that Coats had once represented. Souder’s opponent was Democratic incumbent Jill Long Thompson, who pulled off a big upset in the 1989 special to replace Coats after he was appointed to replace Vice President Dan Quayle in the Senate. However, while Thompson had convincingly won her next two terms, the terrible climate for her party powered Souder to a 55-45 win in this historically Republican area.

Souder quickly became entrenched in his new seat, which was renumbered the 3rd District in the 2002 round of redistricting: The congressman only failed to win by double digits once when he turned back Democrat Tom Hayhurst 54-46 during the 2006 blue wave. However, Souder became a tea party target in 2010 after supporting the 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program and later the Obama administration’s Cash for Clunkers program.

Souder ended up turning back self-funding auto dealer Bob Thomas by an unimpressive 48-34 margin, but he had very little time to enjoy his win. Just weeks later, the married congressman announced, “I sinned against God, my wife and my family by having a mutual relationship with a part-time member of my staff,” and that he’d be resigning over the scandal. Souder, whose marriage survived the ordeal, never ran for office again, though he became a regular columnist for the Indiana tip-sheet Howey Politics and wrote extensively about Fort Wayne’s local TV and baseball history.

Ad Roundup

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