A Democratic wave pickup of 10 Senate seats is a real possibility

Early in the cycle, the big question was wether Democrats could pick up the net-four seats they needed to get control of the U.S. Senate (assuming they won the presidency, and the tie-breaking vote). It was a tall order, given that only one top pickup opportunity (Colorado) was in a 2016 blue state. But Donald Trump’s disastrous and deadly presidency hasn’t just crushed his own reelection chances, but is now threatening Republican Senate seats no one would’ve ever thought would be at risk, even in some solidly red states. 

Welcome to my inaugural ranking of Senate races, by most likely to flip. 

TIER ONE (expected to switch)

1. AlabamaDoug Jones (D)

Our two-year Democratic rental, thanks to a narrowly won special election against a child predator, should come to an end this November as Alabama’s strong Republican lean and a run-of-the-mill Republican challenger ends Jones’ term. No regrets. It was great while it lasted. 

2. Colorado, Cory Gardner (R)

Joe Biden will win Colorado by double-digits. There’s no way Gardner overcomes that margin, and especially not against former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, who remained popular throughout his two terms in office. In fact, Gardner has acted as someone vying for a spot on a second Trump term, reliably defending his president during the impeachment proceedings, rather than a blue-state senator trying to differentiate himself from the top of the ticket. 

3. Arizona, Marth McSally (R)

McSally narrowly lost in the Democratic wave in 2018, and since appointed to fill Sen. John McCain’s seat after his death, she is headed toward another defeat at the hands of Democrat Mark Kelly, an astronaut and husband to former congresswoman and gun violence victim Gabby Giffords. Polling is showing both Biden and Kelly pulling away, in a state in which resurgent Latino voters and suburban white women are heavily engaging. 

4. North Carolina, Thom Tillis (R) 

Democratic Iraq and Afghanistan war vet Cal Cunningham has proven a surprisingly strong challenger to first-term Republican Thom Tillis, handily leading him in all recent polling. It’s not even looking close, in a state in which Biden has also led (albeit more narrowly). Tillis runs weakly against Republicans, who see him as a traitor to Trump’s cause. And the double-whammy of Trump losing the state, and Tillis losing Trump voters, looks too much to overcome. 

5. Maine, Susan Collins (R)

Collins survived decades as a Republican in blue Maine by pretending to be a “moderate” independent-minded legislator. The Trump years have torn that facade away, as she’s sided with the wannabe despot in both his Supreme Court nominations, and in voting to acquit him during the impeachment proceedings. Democrat Sara Gideon, Speaker of the Maine House, is leading in all recent polling, and would be the first woman of color (Indian American) elected in Maine. 

These five races would net Democrats the +3 seats they need for a 50-50 Senate, with Biden’s vice-president casting the tie-breaking vote. But what a nightmare that would be, right? We’d have the nominal majority, but well-short of the 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and without the Democratic votes needs to eliminate that stupid filibuster. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin has already declared he’d vote against any such efforts. So it is imperative that Democrats pad their majority in order to have the votes to get rid of the filibuster and push through critical legislation like statehood for D.C. and Puerto Rico (if its residents vote for it), voting right protections, economic stimulus, police reforms, measures to address climate change, and other Democratic priorities. 

TIER TWO (toss-ups)  

6. Montana, Steve Daines (R)

How can Democrats be competitive in a state which Trump won by over 20 points? First, convince popular Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock to run, then watch Trump’s numbers collapse to the point that Biden is actually competitive. Recent polling in this hard-to-poll state show Republicans with the narrow edge, but it’s narrow. 

7. Iowa, Joni Ernst (R) 

This wasn’t a state that was supposed to be competitive, with Trump winning by nine points in 2016. Yet Trump disastrous trade wars decimated Iowa farmers, and the coronavirus pandemic has only added to anti-GOP sentiment. So this state of rural non-college whites—the core base of the modern Republican Party—is suddenly flirting with voting Democratic. Most recent polling shows Trump leading by a hair, the same as Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield. 

8. Georgia, Kelly Loeffler (R)

Georgia has a racist Jim Crow-era election system, in which candidates require 50% in the first round, otherwise the race moves to a January runoff. This is a special election, thus features a “jungle primary” in which all candidates, of all parties, run on the same ballot. If none reaches 50% (and none will), this gets decided January next year. Democrats are running several candidates, and would be best served if they rallied around Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta (where Dr. Rev, Martin Luther King preached). 

While Democrats have traditionally suffered turnout woes during the runoff elections, I doubt that’ll be an issue this cycle. January will be HOT in Georgia. 

9. Georgia, David Perdue (R)

Same as above, except that there’s no jungle primary. Democrats nominated Jon Ossoff to take on the incumbent. Polling has been mixed in this race, with some showing a tied race, and others showing Perdue close to 50%. But at the same time, almost all polling is showing a competitive presidential contest. If Biden can extend his lead in this coronavirus-stricken state, he could very well pull Democrats across the line with him, at least into January runoffs where defeated and demoralized Republicans might just sit things out. 

TIER THREE (lean Republican)

These solidly Republican states shouldn’t be competitive at the Senate level, yet amazingly, they are! 

10. Kansas, Open (R)

The conventional wisdom is that if Republican nominate crazed right-winger Kris Kobach, that this seat in this +20 2016 Trump state becomes far more competitive in November. That would make sense, since Kobach cost Republicans the governorship in 2018. Our own Civiqs polling, actually, found Democrat Barbara Bollier competitive no matter who Republicans nominate. A tough state, for sure but Kansas is one of the few remaining Republican states with high educational attainment (the other being Utah). Given the nation’s partisan stratification based on college education, we can expect Biden to narrow the gap from 2016, improving Bollier’s chances down the ballot. And if Republicans nominate Kobach? That can’t hurt, either. 

11. Alaska, Dan Sullivan (R)

Alaska is competitive at the presidential level (more here), despite the fact that Trump won it by 15 in 2016. No polling has shown the Senate race competitive, but that’s because 1) there is no Democratic nominee—an independent is filling that slot, and 2) that nominee, Al Gross, has a name ID of about zero percent. Gross is now up in the air, and that should boost that name ID in this cheap state. Also, Democrats will now learn that he is their guy, and will answer accordingly the next time they’re polled. 

Without strength at the presidential level, this seat isn’t in play, but Alaska has been trending Democratic for several cycles now, and this year may be the year when that vast swath of land is painted in glorious blue. 

12. South Carolina, Lindsey Graham (R)

Pinch me I must be dreaming. Infamous Trump bootlicker Lindsey is vulnerable? Yes. Yes he is. The polling has shown the state tightening at the presidential level, and the pandemic is hitting South Carolina hard, further weakening the state’s dominant Republican Party. Democrats have an awesome candidate in Jaime Harrison. His problem has been that while he’s running even with Graham, most undecideds in the race are conservative voters. It’s a tough hill to overcome. But this is happening: 

Every point Trump falls is a point that could cost him in the presidential election, and every point that presidential race narrows is one point less Harrison needs to overcome to win the Senate seat. The play here isn’t for Biden to win, he doesn’t need South Carolina (as nice as it would be!). We need it close enough to give ourselves a chance down ballot. 

This is a long-shot, by all means, but it’s a real shot. And Harrison has raised record amounts of cash and has the resources to wage a real campaign in this final three-month sprint to Election Day.  

13. Texas, John Cornyn (R)

The big question in Texas is whether it is competitive at the presidential level or not. It’s clear where the state is trending, and no doubt in a cycle or two it will be legitimately purple. But polling is mixed on whether this is the year. And that will inform whether the Senate race is flippable. On its merits, Cornyn should be cruising to reelection. He has none of the baggage Sen. Ted Cruz had in 2018, where he held on to his seat by just 2% of the vote. But if Texas Democrats can get the state’s chronically underperforming Latino vote to activate, then all bets are off—at both the presidential and senate levels. 

CONCLUSION

Of the 13 Senate seats currently in play, 12 of them are held by Republicans. The odds of Democrats picking up 10 or 11 seats are currently low, but the trends just keep getting worse and worse for the GOP. The toll of the pandemic isn’t just worsening nationwide, it’s currently disproportionately affecting some of the very states discussed above, like Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina, and Texas. 

Meanwhile, Trump is doing nothing to reverse his precipitous collapse in his national standing, while also refusing to allow Republicans to distance themselves from him. 

So can we get to a double-digit pickup in the Senate? Not today, we wouldn’t, but Republicans still have three months to fall. 

Trump’s polling collapse puts Ohio back on the map

Once upon a time, Ohio was the ultimate swing state. President Barack Obama won it as recently as 2012! But then, non-college whites turned sharply in favor of bunker-hiding Donald Trump, and Ohio was both (82% non-Hispanic white, and ranked 35th in college graduates). Trump won it easily by over 8 points.

So Ohio wasn’t included in the early tally of 2020 battleground states. Early polling wasn’t encouraging for Democrats, and there were seven other states that would clearly decide the November contest: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

But, you can now officially add Ohio to that list.

As I wrote in my last story, we’re seeing clear correlation between Trump’s personal ratings, and his head-to-head matchups. In other words, whatever his favorability rating is, that’s what he’s pretty much getting against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Here are the four last Civiqs state polls:

STATE TRUMP FAVORABLES TRUMP vs. BIDEN GEORGIAKANSASNORTH CAROLINASOUTH CAROLINA
47-51 47-48
51-47 52-40
45-53 46-49
51-47 52-42

Also, in the last story, I wrote about Trump’s overall collapse in his personal approval ratings. Well, Ohio has had a more exaggerated collapse compared to the country at large. 

During impeachment, Trump had a +4 favorability rating in Ohio, or 51-47. That’s important because it meant he was likely over 50% in head-to-heads against Biden. We were right to keep the state off the battleground map. 

However, those approvals have dropped a net total of 12 points, to an anemic 45-53. So what other states have approval ratings in that -8 range? 

APPROVALS NET APPROVAL Iowa Florida Ohio Georgia North Carolina Wisconsin Pennsylvania MICHIGAN Arizona
45-52 -7
45-52 -7
45-53 -8
44-53 -9
43-54 -11
43-54 -11
42-54 -12
42-56 -14
40-57 -17

We know Florida is tied because not only the polling says so, but, you know, it’s Florida. (Actually, the polling gives Biden a small lead in Florida, but it’s Florida. So it’s tied.) 

Trump’s ratings in Ohio are a hint worse. Trump’s Ohio ratings are still better than they are in Georgia and North Carolina, two states we know that he is narrowly losing. But they’re all in the same range, with Trump getting roughly 45-46% of the Trump versus Biden vote. He’s slipped away from that 50% mark. The state is in play. And it makes that Fox News poll last week showing Biden leading in Ohio 45-43 make plenty of sense. 

Now Ohio won’t be deciding this election. If Biden wins the state, it’s because he already won the other seven battlegrounds. There is no scenario imaginable in which Ohio casts any deciding Electoral College votes. (Iowa and Texas are in a similar situation, as well as Minnesota and Nevada for Trump. If he wins those last two states, he’s already won the election.) 

What it means is that a panicking Trump campaign is already spending money trying to shore up the state. 

Over the past few weeks, the president’s operation has spent about $1.7 million on advertising in just three states he carried in 2016 — Ohio, Iowa and Arizona — that it had hoped would not be competitive at all this year. Much of that sum went to a concentrated two-week barrage in Ohio [...]

As I wrote last week, this spending is proof that Trump’s campaign is either being driven by Trump’s whims—he likely hates the idea that he’s losing Ohio, or his campaign manager Brad Parscale is utterly incompetent. Again, if they lose Ohio, they already lost the election, so why waste money there when Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have all fallen seemingly out of reach?

(To spare you the math, picking up just those four states—Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is a 289-249 Biden victory. Including North Carolina, which also has a Trump double-digit approval deficit, makes it 304-234 Biden.)

But whatever the motivation to piss away millions in Ohio, it again proves that the state is in serious play. And that is, quite simply, remarkable. There’s nothing about the state that suggests it should be competitive. It seemed headed into Missouri territory—a once competitive state relegated by demographics to solid red status. And yet, here we are. 

Ohio, welcome back to swing-state status!

Democrats will win the Senate (only question is by how much)

No one should count their chickens before they hatch. This is not what I’m doing. What I’m saying is that if we keep doing what we’re doing, and that guy cowering in the bunker in the White House keeps doing what he’s doing, and Senate Republicans keep carrying water for the guy in the bunker … then yeah, Democrats will pick up the Senate. And I’m not going out on a limb in saying so. 

The big picture: Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Trump is going to lose. Therefore, Democrats need to pick up a net three seats to get to 50 seats, with the vice presidential tiebreaker putting the chamber in Democratic hands. 

We are probably going to lose the Senate seat in Alabama. That was a temporary gift won in a special election against a child molester. And we still barely won. In a normal year, against a normal Republican, with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket? If Democratic Sen. Doug Jones wins reelection, we’ve got a 60-seat majority landslide. So we assume he loses. 

The Daily Kos Elections crew just moved Arizona into “lean Democratic,” but that is probably still too kind.  

McSally (R) Kelly (D) Fox News (5/30-6/2) Highground (5/18-5/22) OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11)
37 50
41 51
38 51

Appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally already lost in 2018, and the whole state of Arizona seems to be moving strongly against Republicans. In that Fox News poll, Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden is leading 46-42. 

In Colorado, no one is pretending that Republican Sen. Cory Gardner has any chance. Even he realizes it—he spent his impeachment time aggressively defending Trump in a state in which Trump will lose by double digits. And so will Gardner. Two polls in early March had former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper leading by 17 and 18 points. No one has wasted time polling there ever since. 

Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins saw her “moderate” veneer shorn off after voting both to acquit Trump in his impeachment trial, and voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. A poll last month had Democratic candidate Sarah Gideon with a 51-42 lead. The race has been underpolled, but Collins ranks amongst the most unpopular senators in the country in a state that will solidly go blue this fall. She can’t count on ticket splitters anymore. 

And in North Carolina, incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis is looking weak, weak, weak:

Tillis (R) Cunningham (D) PPP (6/2-3) Meeting Street Insights (5/9-13) Civiqs (5/2-4) Meredith College (4/27-28)
41 43
44 46
41 50
34 44

Any incumbent below 45% is generally considered to be toast. People are looking for an alternative. 

Losing Alabama but winning Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina gets us to a 50-50 Senate. At this stage of the cycle, given current trends, this is the most likely outcome. 

TIER TWO RACES

These are races in which Republicans currently have the edge, but are in play. 

Georgia has two Senate seats in play: a regular election and a special one. The only recent polling is courtesy of Civiqs, which found both Senate seats effectively tied. The reason the GOP has the edge is that Georgia has a Jim Crow-era law that requires candidates to win with 50% of the vote. If none get it in November, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff election in January. 

Historically, the GOP has done much better in those runoff elections. I suspect this time will be different, but gut feelings don’t trump history. This is a true tossup for both seats. 

Montana pits an incumbent Republicans against the current popular Democratic governor. Montana is notoriously difficult to poll, but the only one to try recently—a sketchy-looking Montana State University effort—had Democrat Steve Bullock ahead 46-39. Trump will win the state, so we’re relying on ticket splitters to carry the day. Luckily, 1) Montana has a long history of split tickets—it currently has a Democratic governor and Democratic U.S. Senator despite being solidly red at the presidential level, and 2) Trump’s approvals in Montana have been in a steady decline over the last 12 months, from a net +12, to +4 today. And the worse Trump does in the state, even if he wins it, the fewer crossover votes Bullock needs to win. 

Depending on how these two states shake out, the Democrats can end up anywhere from the barest 50-50 majority to a better-looking 53-47 one. 

TIER THREE RACES

Incumbent Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst had appeared relatively safe earlier this year. Lily-white Iowa looked like another 10-point Trump win, and Ernst seemed to be doing whatever it was that was necessary to cruise to reelection. But the coronavirus has hit Iowa hard, and the trade wars with China have hammered its farmers. And now, any hope of a positive resolution has evaporated as Trump has decided to blame China for his own failures. In fact, Trump’s approvals are underwater in Iowa 47-50, according to Civiqs’ daily tracker. 

Polling has been scant, but just yesterday Public Policy Polling released a poll showing the Democratic challenger up 45-43. Civiqs has a poll in the field right now and we’ll have results next Tuesday or Wednesday. This one may be soon graduating to the second tier. 

Kansas. Kansas! Yes, Kansas. I explain Kansas here. Botton line: It’s tough, but given Kansas’ high education levels and an ongoing civil war between the state Republican Party’s moderate and crazy wings, we have a shot. 

Texas also gets included in this tier. Incumbent Republican John Cornyn isn't as hated as Ted Cruz, who was almost defeated in 2018. And there is no public polling to give us a sense of the state of this race. But the state is trending blue, and a Public Policy Polling poll released today showed the state a 48-48 tie in the presidential election. Honestly, not sure I buy it, not without additional confirmation. But the demographic trends are certainly in our favor. Have they moved enough to put this Senate seat in contention? I’m hopeful but skeptical.  

TIER FOUR RACES

These are races in which we have great candidates who are raising buttloads of cash, but they are in tough Republican states. 

In Kentucky, odious Republican Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is unpopular, but 1) he delivers more bacon than anyone else in the Senate—Kentucky is the ultimate mooch state, and 2) Kentucky gives Trump some of his highest approval ratings in the country (a rough count says seventh highest). 

Those are some pretty strong headwinds to fight no matter how good your candidate is and how much money she has. 

And in the same vein, South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham is protected by the partisanship of his state—the only one on both coasts that gives Trump a positive approval rating. Civiqs has the race tied 42-42, but undecideds are heavily Republican and the state suffers from extreme racial polarization. Southern whites, in general, just don’t vote Democratic. 

The Senate will be at least 50-50. Our job is to drag as many of these races across the finish line as we can. Can we make it 55-45? Or even more than that? 

Donate to our slate of Senate races. And if you live in any of these states, fight hard! 

Trump keeps screwing everything up and it’s killing him in the battleground states

This is the current national state of play with Donald Trump as he faces his worst job ratings in two years: 

It’s a legit roadmap of the 2020 presidential election.

Here's the current electoral map picture: 

It’s a little confusing, since the color blue in the first map “approves of Trump,” while in the second map it means the exact opposite. But it’s still not too hard to sort out: Blue states really don’t like Trump. Red states like Trump. There are the edge-case states—states that are evenly divided on the question, but aren’t current battlegrounds (Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah). And then there are the seven battlegrounds—all states that voted for Trump in 2016, and all states in which his numbers are currently net-negative. 

Approve DisapproVe net Arizona Florida Georgia Michigan North Carolina Pennsylvania Wisconsin
42 56 -14
46 51 -5
45 51 -6
42 55 -13
45 53 -8
44 52 -8
45 53 -8

Arizona continues to surprise. Who would’ve thought it looks better for presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden than Pennsylvania does? And worse for Trump, his numbers are trending even lower. For example, let’s look at Arizona: 

Since the coronavirus pandemic hit, Trump has gone from -10 net favorables in Arizona, to -14. Arizona has around 4 million registered voter. Going from -10 to -14 net favorability means that around 160,000 Arizona voters changed their mind about Trump. 

Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema won the state by just 56,000 votes in 2018. Democrats picked up the secretary of state office by 20,000 votes. These shifts in public opinion may seem small, but in a tight battleground state, every point matters. And it should be noted, the shift in job approvals in Arizona started during the impeachment hearings. They really did set the stage. 

Let’s look at Florida: 

Florida is Florida, balanced on a razor’s edge, but once again, impeachment took a bite out of Trump, and the pandemic is further widening the split. Looking at Michigan, however, and impeachment didn’t leave any mark, but the pandemic is: 

Click around and see for yourself, but the virus is having an impact in every one of these battleground states. (In every state, actually, but only the battlegrounds are close enough for it to matter.) This is the reason much of the battleground polling lately has been so gaudy-good for Joe Biden and Democratic down-ballot candidates (like the recent Civiqs surveys out of North Carolina and Georgia. Even South Carolina looked better than 2016 numbers).

Will it stay that way? We can’t assume that, of course. It helps us that Trump isn’t trying to actually win new voters. The a-hole is running ads mocking Biden for wearing a mask, when 72% of Americans support wearing masks. He's playing to his peanut gallery. He’s certainly not trying to minimize the continued death toll, having given up entirely on the matter. He’d rather pretend everything is fine so states open up as quickly and as fully as possible. And while some renewed economic activity is inevitable as restrictions loosen up, that still won’t save tens of millions of jobs before November. 

So will Trump be able to recapture that support he’s recently lost? It’s possible! The charts obviously do show their up-and-down fluctuations over the last four years. A skilled, capable, compassionate, and focused leader could certainly manage to parlay this crisis into broad popular support. President George W. Bush hit 90% approvals after 9/11, despite having ignored a report that literally warned that al-Qaida was about to strike the nation. The public wants to rally around their leader in a crisis. 

Trump isn’t skilled or compassionate or capable. He’s a barely functioning adult. And this crisis has made it harder and harder for people to cling to the notion that Trump is actually a good president. 

It’s hard for people to admit that their sincerely held beliefs were wrong. And politics is now akin to religion—part of one’s self-identity. Leaving the Republican Party is like leaving a cult. Not everyone can manage it. And yet, it’s happening. It happened in 2018, with suburban white women testing the waters, and the water was fine! Newly re-minted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wasn’t the boogeyman! She ended up being nothing like that asshole in the Senate, Mitch McConnell. 

And now it’s time to leave the Cult of MAGA, and it’s happening, little by little, inch by inch. It’s been enough to spot Biden a clear lead in the Electoral College, it has been enough to deprive Trump of an expanded map, it has been enough to create two new battleground states in previously red (and solidly red!) Arizona and Georgia. 

Can Trump reverse that trend? Sure, it’s within the realm of possibility, but no, he won’t. He can’t. He probably doesn’t even want to. 

Biden Rape Charges Hurting Democrats In U.S. Senate Races

All across the country Democrats are turning on Joe Biden and backing a probe into Tara Reade’s rape charges, much to the consternation of the Biden campaign. Though some are sticking with Biden and some are trying to cut the baby in half.

Because Democrat Senate hopefuls are all over the road on their party’s de facto nominee, it is hurting their party unity and thus their races all over the nation. Here are some examples of how the Reade charges are playing out. We lead off with Mitch McConnell setting the stage.

Kentucky: “Well, at the very least it’s pretty obvious that the same people who were outraged about allegations — unproven allegations against Justice Kavanaugh when he was in high school — seemed to have little or no interest, or certainly not as much interest, in suggestions of improper behavior by an adult who was in the Senate,” said GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

“I was asked earlier today about Judge Brett Kavanaugh and I answered (that she would have voted to confirm) based upon his qualifications to be on the Supreme Court,” Amy McGrath said. She is the Democrat up against McConnell. First she was for Kavanaugh, knowing that would play in red state Kentucky. Then she turned tail after leftist pressure and said this, “But upon further reflection and further understanding of his record, I would have voted no.” Ducked the issue on Reade altogether.

Maine: “At the time of his confirmation, there was plenty of evidence that put into question Brett Kavanaugh’s fitness for the Supreme Court,” Democrat Sara Gideon said.

Gideon is challenging GOP incumbent Senator Susan Collins. “Senators Collins cast a critical vote to confirm him anyway, and she said she doesn’t regret it.” Gideon has dodged all comment on the Reade story.

“Principles like the presumption of innocence, fairness, and due process always bear on my thinking in evaluating such an allegation,” Collins said. “Ms. Reade should be treated with respect and have a chance to tell her story. I served with Joe Biden in the Senate, and I have respect for his service to our country.” Cautious and down the middle. Very Susan Collins.

Georgia: “The law actually has a system for this that can be used in the political and civic world as well, and that is when a woman makes an allegation she makes a prima facie statement and it is to be believed, and then it is to be rebutted by the accused and then the burden’s on the woman to state her case,” Teresa Tomlinson said. She is in the Democrat primary to take on GOP Senator David Perdue (R-GA) this fall. She tries to go down the middle. Her legal mumbo jumbo fails.

“Any allegation of sexual assault needs to be taken seriously. In a supercharged political environment, we need to look carefully. And only Vice President Biden and the accuser really know what happened,” Jon Ossoff said. He is also in that primary. A little bit better than Tomlinson. But still not good enough to escape charges of Democrat hypocrisy.

“These accusations deserve to be heard in full and the voters deserve a full investigation of what happened,” Sarah Riggs Amico said. “And at the same time Joe Biden does deserve due process.” Still better and smarter, this time. But that wasn’t her attitude on Brett Kavanaugh.

“I will never be silent when it comes to fighting for what’s right. That’s why I’m offering my unwavering support to those who are coming forward and joining others calling for Kavanaugh’s impeachment because this is no time for half measures, especially when it comes to our values. It is clear that Senate Republicans, including Senator David Perdue, put partisan politics ahead of good judgment by confirming Kavanaugh without a thorough investigation,” said Amico during the Kavanaugh hearings. Even later, she wasn’t so evenhanded about Kavanaugh.

All over the road. It will cost them, and Biden, in the fall.

This piece was written by PoliZette Staff on May 7, 2020. It originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

Read more at LifeZette:
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Influential COVID scientist promoting lockdown resigns after he’s busted breaking his own quarantine rules
Meghan McCain shuts down Whoopi Goldberg after she claims Trump is afraid of Fauci testimony

The post Biden Rape Charges Hurting Democrats In U.S. Senate Races appeared first on The Political Insider.

The fight between Trump allies Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins may be getting nastier

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting that the primary fight between appointed Georgia Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler and newly infamous Donald Trump ally Rep. Doug Collins, who is running to replace her in the Senate, is likely going to get much, much nastier, with "Loeffler's allies" forming "an outside group that will match anything [Collins] spends with attack ads.” The short version: Loeffler very much wants to keep her Senate seat, does not think much of the upstart Collins, and has enough friends with cash to make Collins' life as miserable as she wants to in coming weeks.

See there? And you thought there was no good news left in the world. Come for the Republican-on-Republican grudge match, stay for the AJC's reported Collins camp slap-calling Kelly Loeffler a "human-sized Mike Bloomberg spending the gross national product of Guatemala on her campaign."

It's fair to say that Rep. Doug Collins raised more than a few Republican eyebrows with his surprise announcement that he wanted to be a senator now. He appeared to believe that his aggressive, long-winded, and excruciating-to-listen-to defense of Trump during House impeachment hearings would result in Trump demanding that his loyal ally be given the Senate slot; unfortunately for Collins, Trump now has more lapdogs than the Westminster Kennel Club, and while Collins was able to get a bit of rote Trump praise, he does not seem to have stood out in Trump's mind as anything special.

Loeffler, however, has what Collins does not have: cash, and lots of it. Loeffler is a Republican mega-donor who claimed she would be spending $20 million of her own money to keep her seat. That made her a very, very attractive appointee for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to name to the seat while allowing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to devote his own Republican committee cash to other must-win races. Loeffler's appointment is part of the overall trend of big political donors getting impatient with the system and just demanding that they themselves hold the offices they have been paying others to hold.

Doug Collins can't compete with that. Also, Doug Collins is insufferable even at the best of times. Also also, Doug Collins appears to have peeved his entire party by inserting himself into a race that Republicans thought would be a nonissue this year, for no apparent purpose other than self-promotion.

And also also also, Doug Collins appears to have vastly overestimated the rewards he'd be getting for his ridiculous impeachment performance, in which he had a voluminous amount of things to say, none of which any of you remember because it was all rote, blustering nonsense. On the contrary, after the Senate voted to nullify the charges against Trump, it was Loeffler who got singled out for Trump praise. "She's been downright nasty and mean about the unfairness to the president," he gushed.

This is becoming a race to watch, if only to see how low two thoroughly terrible people can knock each other while their cherished Dear Leader watches on the nearest television set. Go, have fun with that. Spend as much money as you can while you're at it.

Trump Tries Georgia End Run On Senate Race

By David Kamioner | February 21, 2020

The GOP has a problem in Georgia and his name is Doug Collins. Not that Collins isn’t sharp and a strong Trump supporter. He proved both by his exemplary performance during the House impeachment sham.

The issue is that his political ambitions could throw an easy GOP seat to the Democrats.

GOP Senator Johnny Isakson resigned late last year due to health reasons. GOP Governor Brian Kemp appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler to take the seat until a special election this November. Trump and the GOP party organization endorsed Loeffler for the seat. But then Collins got in the picture.

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Looking at very strong polling numbers against Loeffler, he’s bucking the GOP and the president and running for the seat. His excellent performance during impeachment must have only given him more confidence in his decision and made him think the president would not come down too hard on him.

He is right about the president, but not about the party. They had this to say when he made his decision: “This shortsighted decision is stunning,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Kevin McLaughlin. “Doug Collins’ selfishness will hurt David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler, and President Trump. Not to mention the people of Georgia who will stand to bear the burden of it for years to come. All he has done is put two senate seats, multiple house seats, and Georgia’s 16 electoral votes in play.”

You can’t really blame Collins. It’s a rule in politics to look out for number one and take your shot when it’s there for you. The party and the president do not agree because Georgia has weird election rules. All candidates run in November and the top person takes the seat. However, if no one takes a majority then a runoff happens in January. So if too many Republicans run, a Democrat can sneak in through the middle and take the seat because the GOP vote gets split.

Got that?

So, not a happy situation in the GOP Georgia family. Thus, dad steps in.

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The president is offering the high-powered DNI, Director of National Intelligence, post to Collins. It’s the most important intel post in the nation and would give Collins serious creds for higher office. If Collins took it that would get him out of the way in Georgia and make everyone happy.

But Collins isn’t biting. Friday morning he told Fox News that he is still running for the Senate seat. He could be holding out for a better price. Or perhaps he looks at his good numbers in the race and thinks Trump will go easy on him and be distracted by his own race.

But the president has just started his pressure on Collins. We’ll see what happens as November get closer.

This piece originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

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The post Trump Tries Georgia End Run On Senate Race appeared first on The Political Insider.

Biden Stuns New Hampshire Voter By Calling Her A ‘Lying, Dog-Faced Pony Soldier’

By PoliZette Staff | February 10, 2020

Former Vice President Joe Biden appeared to come unglued during a campaign event in New Hampshire yesterday, calling one voter a “lying, dog-faced pony soldier.”

A 21 year-old woman named Madison Moore, who is a student at Mercer University in Georgia, got up during the event to ask Biden how he plans to stay competitive in the 2020 presidential race.

“It’s a good question,” Biden replied, according to Fox News. “Number one: Iowa’s a democratic caucus. You ever been to a caucus? No you haven’t. You’re a lying, dog-faced pony soldier. You said you were; but now you got to be honest. I’m gonna be honest with you. It was a little bit confusing in Iowa.”

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Biden had used the odd phrase last month as well to respond to a question about Barack Obama’s broken promises that Americans would be guaranteed the option to keep their doctors under the Affordable Care Act. He seemed to explain the origins of the phrase at a campaign event in 2018.

“As my brother who loves to use lines from movies, from John Wayne movies, there’s a line in a movie, a John Wayne movie where an Indian chief turns to John Wayne and says, ‘This is a lying, dog-faced pony soldier,'” Biden said at the time.

Moore said after the event that Biden was right in surmising that she hadn’t been to a caucus.

“I felt he did give some good answers,” Moore said. “It was a little awkward being put on the spot. But he was right. I haven’t been to a caucus. I kind of caved in the moment. So he’s right. He’s right there. But he’s right about the black vote, too. I mean, it’s very important. And the results have shown that people think he doesn’t have that support. So I’m still very skeptical, but I thought he did a good job answering.”

However, Biden has been widely criticized for the uncomfortable moment.

“If he can’t handle a simple question from one of his own supporters, how can Joe Biden possibly take on Donald Trump one on one for six months?” tweeted Donald Trump Jr.

This serves as a reminder that Biden is unfit for office, and really has no business even being in this race. He has made so many gaffes in the months since he began running that it’s impossible to deny that he would embarrass our country often as president. It’s time for Biden to save himself further humiliation by dropping out of the race once and for all.

This piece originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

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The post Biden Stuns New Hampshire Voter By Calling Her A ‘Lying, Dog-Faced Pony Soldier’ appeared first on The Political Insider.

Popular Georgia minister jumps into U.S. Senate race with huge endorsement from Stacey Abrams

When former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams backs someone for office, that candidate is worth a look. That certainly is the case for the Rev. Raphael Warnock, the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King Jr. once presided over the pulpit. Abrams announced Thursday she is endorsing Warnock in the race against incumbent U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler and conservative Rep. Doug Collins, who also recently announced the launch of his campaign. Abrams pushed for supporters to donate to the pastor’s campaign on Twitter, and called Warnock a “true ally in our fight for justice.” “That’s why I'm proud to endorse him for U.S. Senate here in GA,” she said.

Warnock announced the launch of his campaign Thursday with a video describing an inherited work ethic that took him from a Savannah public housing project to leading the congregation of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. "I had 11 sisters and brothers. We were short on money but long on love and faith," Warnock said. "Our parents taught us the value of hard work." The son of a mother who picked cotton and a father who was a veteran, small-business owner, and preacher, Warnock said simply that he loves his country and has always envisioned a path “to make it greater.”

"Somebody asked why a pastor thinks he should serve in the Senate. Well, I've committed my whole life to service and helping people realize their highest potential," Warnock said in his campaign video. "I've always thought that my impact doesn't stop at the church door. That's actually where it starts." In his campaign announcement, the senior pastor advocated for families who can't afford to pay for treatment for their medical diagnosis, for workers who are underpaid and pushed aside for the likes of  Wall Street, and for struggling families in general. "Like my father used to tell me every morning: Whatever it is, be ready," Warnock said. "And I think Georgia is ready."

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