Playing a starring role in Tuesday’s primaries: Darth Vader

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Voters across four states pick their candidates Tuesday for downballot offices, including in multiple House races where incumbents are in danger of losing, in one of the biggest primary nights of the year. Donald Trump is doing his part to make this night eventful by endorsing 12 candidates in eight competitive races—yes, you read that right. 

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top primaries to watch, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for four states: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states. 

We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting at 8 PM ET, when polls close in Missouri as well as in most of Kansas and Michigan. Join us for our complete coverage! 

Kansas

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time in the portion of the state located in the Central time zone, where virtually all Kansans live, and an hour later in four sparsely populated counties along the state's western border with Colorado. Individual counties have the option to keep their polls open an extra hour.

• KS-02 (R) (57-41 Trump): Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner surprised just about everyone in April when he announced his retirement from Congress at the ripe age of 36, but a familiar name quickly emerged as the favorite to replace him. Former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, despite his narrow loss to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in 2022, retains plenty of name recognition and establishment support, and he picked up Trump's endorsement late in the contest. 

A few other Republicans, however, are hoping Schmidt isn't as strong as he looks in this constituency, which includes the state capital of Topeka, Kansas City, and parts of eastern Kansas. Businessman Shawn Tiffany is airing ads unsubtly attacking the former attorney general's record as a "smelly pile of Schmidt," while former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs also hopes to succeed his old boss.

• Johnson County Sheriff (R) (53-45 Biden): Sheriff Calvin Hayden, who has spent the last few years spreading election conspiracy theories, faces a Republican primary challenge from former undersheriff Doug Bedford in Kansas' largest county. 

Bedford, who has expressed faith that votes are being counted fairly, is arguing that the incumbent is wasting taxpayer money on his quest. The challenger has the support of former Sheriff Frank Denning, who has declared that Bedford's win is essential to restoring faith in the office.

The winner will take on Prairie Village Police Chief Byron Roberson, a Democrat who was the first Black person to lead a police department in the county. Johnson County, which is based in the Kansas City suburbs, is a longtime GOP bastion that backed only Republican presidential candidates for the 100 years before Joe Biden's historic 2020 win there. Roberson has cited this, as well as his party's continuing success in the county, to make his case that he can defeat either Republican. 

Michigan

Polls close at 8 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where almost all Michiganders live, and an hour later in four small counties in the Upper Peninsula along the state's western border with Wisconsin.

• MI-Sen (D & R) (51-48 Biden): Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are preparing to face off in a competitive race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but they each have to dispatch a notable intraparty opponent first. 

Slotkin's foe is Hill Harper, an actor who is best known for his role on "The Good Doctor." Harper, though, has not been a good fundraiser, and he hasn't benefited from any major outside spending. 

Rogers' opponent is former Rep. Justin Amash, who over the past few years has switched his party affiliation from Republican to independent to Libertarian before ultimately rejoining the GOP. Trump and Senate Republicans are supporting Rogers over Amash, who voted to impeach Trump in 2019 and hasn't brought in much money for his new campaign.

• MI-08 (D & R) (50-48 Biden): Both parties have contested primaries to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in this swing seat, which is based in the Flint and Tri-Cities areas, but this is another race where there's a front-runner for each side.

The Democratic favorite is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has the support of Kildee, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and the DCCC. Her main rival appears to be businessman Matt Collier, an Army veteran who was elected mayor of Flint in 1987 but lost reelection four years later. State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is also in, but she's struggled to bring in money to run a serious effort. A late June poll for a pro-Collier group showed McDonald Rivet leading him 32-19, and we haven't seen any data since then.

The Republican's main candidate is Paul Junge, a former Trump administration official who picked up his old boss' endorsement in late July. Junge, though, has run for the House twice already without success: In 2020 he lost to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin 51-47 in the old 8th District, while he fell to Kildee 53-43 two years later, following redistricting. (Despite sharing a number, the two incarnations of the 8th District don't include any of the same territory.)

Republicans looking for an alternative to Junge, whom Kildee successfully attacked as an outsider, got some welcome news in April when retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves launched her own campaign. Junge, though, has used his personal wealth to finance ads attacking Draves for serving on Whitmer's Council on Climate Solutions and for donating to McDonald Rivet's own political action committee. Junge has released several surveys showing him easily beating Draves, and his opponent has not publicized any polls showing her in better shape. 

• MI-10 (D) (50-49 Trump): Four Democrats are on the ballot to take on freshman Republican Rep. John James in this competitive seat based in Macomb County, though none of them have raised much money to flip this suburban Detroit seat.

The most familiar name on the ballot is former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, a longtime local politician who held James to an unexpectedly tight 49-48 victory in 2022 despite receiving little outside help. But while Marlinga is arguing that close shave proves he can win, gun safety activist Emily Busch is arguing he's failed on abortion rights. The field also includes financial adviser Diane Young and state Board of Education member Tiffany Tilley. 

• MI-13 (D) (74-25 Biden): Freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar faces Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters in a volatile primary where the challenger is hoping her long service in local politics will help her overcome a truly staggering financial disadvantage.

Thanedar two years ago narrowly beat former state Sen. Adam Hollier for the Democratic primary, and his subsequent election meant that, for the first time since the 1950s, heavily Black Detroit did not have an African American member of Congress. (Thanedar is Indian American, while Detroit's other representative, Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.) 

Hollier launched a rematch campaign last year against the new congressman, whom Tlaib accused of being "absent from doing his job," but the race took a shocking turn this spring when Hollier failed to submit enough signatures to make the ballot. Waters, who had been running an underfunded campaign, immediately became Thanedar's main opponent, and she picked up the support of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. 

But while Waters, who is Black, is arguing that the Motor City once again needs a Black member of Congress, she still has little money to get that message out against the wealthy Thanedar. A pair of super PACs, including the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, have also spent over $3 million to sink Waters. Some of this spending has gone to promote a third candidate, Shakira Hawkins, in what appears to be an effort to split the anti-Thanedar vote. 

Missouri

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

• MO-Gov (R & D) (57-41 Trump): Gov. Mike Parson is termed out of office, and three prominent fellows Republicans are competing in an expensive and nasty race to replace him: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, and state Sen. Bill Eigel. A pair of polls conducted in late July for the nonpartisan political tipsheet Missouri Scout showed Ashcroft and Kehoe tied, with Eigel 9 to 11 percentage points behind them. 

Trump, who since late July has made it a habit to endorse multiple candidates for the same office, has thrown his support behind all three of them. This has allowed each member of this trio to run ads proclaiming that they're "endorsed by Trump," though they haven't been in a hurry to share that their rivals also have that distinction.

Ashcroft spent months as the favorite for the job that his father and namesake, John Ashcroft, held before becoming a U.S. senator and later George W. Bush's first attorney general. But while the younger Ashcroft attracted attention last year for, among other things, unsuccessfully using the power of his office to sabotage a series of proposed abortion-rights amendments, he's struggled to bring in money throughout the campaign. He got some welcome news late in the campaign, however, when a little-known super PAC deployed millions to aid him.

Fundraising has not been a problem for Kehoe, who has decisively outspent his rivals. The lieutenant governor has spent months attacking Ashcroft, though he's also focused on making sure Eigel doesn't emerge unscathed. But while the lieutenant governor is an ardent conservative who has Parson's endorsement, he's acknowledged he's not a "flame-thrower, or somebody who throws hand grenades."

That's a not-so-subtle knock on Eigel, who generated national attention last year when he deployed a flamethrower at an event and later said he'd use it to immolate books "on the front lawn of the governor's mansion." Eigel, who belongs to his state's branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, has a horrible relationship with his chamber's leaders, whom he's compared to Darth Vader. ("[W]e're not Darth Vader," protested Senate Majority Leader Cindy O'Laughlin.)

Things are considerably quieter on the Democratic side, though two contenders are hoping GOP infighting will give them an opening in what used to be a swing state. Those two candidates are state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade and businessman Mike Hamra, whose company operates almost 200 restaurants nationwide.

• MO-01 (D) (78-20 Biden): Two-term Rep. Cori Bush is trying to turn back a well-funded challenge from St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell in what AdImpact says is the second-most expensive House primary in American history. Outside groups have spent over $12 million to defeat Bush in the St. Louis area, while her supporters have directed $3 million to help her. 

Most of this anti-Bush spending comes from AIPAC's United Democracy Project, which wants to defeat one of the most ardent critics of Israel's government, though other organizations like the crypto-aligned super PAC Fairshake are also running ads against her. The incumbent's main ally, by contrast, is the progressive group Justice Democrats.

Bush's detractors are utilizing a similar strategy to the one they successfully deployed against New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman this year in what remains the priciest House primary ever. Her opponents have taken her to task for voting against Biden administration priorities from the left, and they've accused her of taking credit for securing billions in federal aid from bills she didn't vote for. 

Those ads, however, have largely avoided attacking Bush over the ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into allegations that she misused campaign funds to pay her husband for security services. The story may be hurting the congresswoman in another way, however, as she's used her campaign account to pay for legal fees rather than to support her reelection effort.

Bush's side is fighting back by trying to argue that Bell's support from AIPAC, which receives much of its funding from Republican donors, is too close to the GOP. The congresswoman is also airing a commercial where the father and sister of Michael Brown accuse Bell of lying to them by going back on a pledge to charge Darren Wilson, the Ferguson police officer who killed their loved one in 2014.

The only recent poll we've seen was a late July survey for Bell's allies at Democratic Majority for Israel that showed him outpacing Bush 48-42. That survey showed little support for the other two candidates, former state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal and 2022 hopeful Ron Harshaw, though their presence could end up mattering in a tight contest.

• MO-03 (R) (62-36 Trump): While seven Republicans are on the ballot here, the primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in this central Missouri seat is essentially an expensive duel between two former state senators, Bob Onder and Kurt Schaefer. 

Trump has endorsed Onder, who was a member of the predecessor to the state legislature's Freedom Caucus. Luetkemeyer, though, is supporting his old ally Schaefer over Onder, whom the now-congressman defeated in a bitter 2008 race for the now-defunct 9th District. A mid-July poll released by Onder’s campaign gave him a 34-14 advantage over his intraparty rival, but Schaefer's hoping a well-financed offensive will help him change that. 

Schaefer has benefited from around $5 million in outside support, including from a group that has devoted itself to stopping hard-line candidates who could cause headaches for the House GOP leadership and from a super PAC partially funded by Luetkemeyer. (The outgoing congressman also is no fan of the national Freedom Caucus.) Pro-Onder outfits, including the far-right Club for Growth, have spent a smaller but still substantive $3 million to aid him.

• MO-AG (R) (57-41 Trump): The Republican primary for attorney general of Missouri is an expensive proxy battle between state party leaders and some of the party's most influential national donors. In one corner is incumbent Andrew Bailey, whom Gov. Mike Parson appointed after their fellow Republican, Eric Schmitt, was elected to the Senate in 2022. His opponent is Trump attorney Will Scharf, who is a protégé of powerful conservative Leonard Leo.

There's little policy difference between the two Republicans, who have both spread lies about the 2020 election and each has Trump's endorsement. Scharf, though, is arguing that the party needs an attorney general who isn't connected to what he's portrayed as a corrupt state government. Bailey, meanwhile, is highlighting how Scharf grew up in New York City and Florida and his 2007 arrest for serving alcohol to underage college students.

AdImpact reports that Scharf and his allies have outspent Bailey's side $9.7 million to $7 million on advertising. Every poll that's been released, however, has shown the attorney general ahead, including a late July survey for the Missouri Scout that gave him a 41-30 advantage.

• MO Ballot (57-41 Trump): The Missouri Supreme Court this spring declared that a new vote was required for a 2022 state constitutional amendment that empowered the state legislature to require Kansas City to spend at least 25% of its general revenue on its police because the original version included a flawed fiscal summary. But while this marked a legal victory for Kansas City, which is the only major city in America that doesn't have control over its own police force, it would still be a surprise if Amendment 4 failed two years after statewide voters approved it by a 63-37 margin.

Washington 

Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.

Washington’s top-two primary requires all candidates to compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. The two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 5 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in August by taking a majority of the vote.

• WA-Gov (58-38 Biden): While a grand total of 28 people are on the ballot to succeed Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, who is retiring after three terms in office, there's little question that the general election will be between Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert. 

Each man, though, still faces one notable intra-party foe. The State Republican Party is backing Semi Bird, a far-right Army veteran who was one of three Richland School Board members recalled last year for defying the state's COVID protocols and make it optional to wear masks in local public schools. Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet, who is one of the most prominent moderates in the legislature meanwhile, has benefited from some heavy outside spending on his behalf. Polls, though, show neither Bird not Mullet posing a threat to their respective parties' frontrunners. 

• WA-03 (51-47 Trump): Both parties have long anticipated a general election rematch between freshman Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and election conspiracy theorist Joe Kent two years after Gluesenkamp Perez's 50-49 upset helped Democrats win every House seat that touches the Pacific Ocean. Kent, though, first needs to get past another Republican, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, who is arguing, "He had his chance, he lost."

Lewallen's pitch, however, doesn't seem to be resonating with conservatives in southwestern Washington or nationally. A late June internal poll released by Kent’s campaign showed him beating her 34-6 for the second general election spot, with Gluesenkamp Perez at 38%. Trump went on to endorse Kent the following month.

• WA-04 (57-40 Trump): Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, faces two intraparty rivals in a chaotic race for this conservative seat in central Washington. Those opponents are former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, who unsuccessfully ran here in 2022, and Tiffany Smiley, who was the GOP’s nominee against Democratic Sen. Patty Murray that same year.

Sessler, until Saturday, was Trump's only endorsed candidate in this race. But while Sessler has accused Smiley of running only to help Newhouse, Trump announced over the weekend that he was also supporting her. Smiley, for her part, has run ads attacking both Newhouse's impeachment vote and calling Sessler a vegan who "wants to tax our beef," allegations Sessler has ardently denied.

It's possible that two of these three Republicans will advance because, unlike in 2022, there's no one candidate for the district's Democrats to consolidate behind. Instead, three other candidates are campaigning as Democrats, while a fourth will be listed on the ballot as a "MAGA Democrat." 

• WA-05 (54-44 Trump): Six Republicans and five Democrats are facing off in a packed race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in the Spokane area. 

The top fundraiser is Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, a former Republican state senator who came nowhere close to unseating Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell in 2012. His main rival appears to be state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber, who is the rare Republican who has the support of the Washington State Labor Council. (The AFL-CIO affiliate is also backing one of the Democrats, former Spokane County Democratic Party Chair Carmela Conroy.) 

The GOP field also includes former Trump administration official Brian Dansel, Spokane City Councilman Jonathan Bingle, and Rene' Holaday, a radio host who has called for turning the eastern part of the state into a separate theocracy—even if "bloodshed" is necessary.

In addition to Conroy, the Democratic side includes physician Bernadine Bank and businesswoman Ann Marie Danimus. While it would be difficult for any of these candidates to prevail in a seat this conservative, though it's possible one of them could secure one of the general election spots that might have otherwise gone to a Republican.

• WA-06 (57-40 Biden): Two prominent Democrats, Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz and state Sen. Emily Randall, are campaigning to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer in a seat based in the Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma. Republican state Sen. Drew MacEwen is also in, and while he's raised little money, he may be able to grab one of the general election slots.

Franz has Kilner's endorsement, and she's brought in more money than Randall. Randall, though, has the backing of Sen. Patty Murray and several labor groups, including ones that represent Franz's employees in state government. 

The state senator has also benefited from over $2 million in outside spending, while there's been no serious overlay for Franz. Much of the pro-Randall ads have come from the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, which has informed viewers that she "would make history as the first LGBTQ Latina in Congress."

• WA Commissioner of Public Lands (58-38 Biden): While Evergreen State Republicans don't hold a single statewide office, the state's top two primary rules give them a chance to flip the commissioner of public lands office well before the November general election.

Two Republicans and five Democrats are campaigning to replace Democrat Hilary Franz as the head of a post that, among other things, runs the state's Department of Natural Resources and handles Washington's wildfire-fighting efforts. The most prominent candidate in the race is former GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who lost renomination in 2022 after voting to impeach Donald Trump. The other Republican is Sue Kuehl Pederson, who lost to Franz 57-43 in 2020.

A late July poll for the Northwest Progressive Institute showed Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson respectively at 18% and 12% in a race where no Democrat has emerged as the party's front-runner. King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove was a distant third, with 6%, compared with 5% each for state Sen. Kevin Van De Wege and Redmond City Councilmember Jeralee Anderson. Two DNR officials, Patrick DePoe and Allen Lebovitz, clocked in with 4% and 3%.

Democrats are hoping that one candidate can surge ahead and stop Republicans from winning this post by default. If they fail, though, there is talk of progressives waging a write-in campaign to stop the general election from being only a choice between Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson, though state law would bar any of the five current candidates from filling that role.  

Why it seems like the entire GOP wants this Republican to lose his primary

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Three states are holding major primaries on Tuesday, headlined by Virginia, where Donald Trump and Kevin McCarthy are both working to punish the chair of the Freedom Caucus for his disloyalty. Oklahoma is also on tap, while Georgia is holding runoffs in contests where no one earned a majority of the vote in the first round of voting on May 21.

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Georgia, Oklahoma, and Virginia. You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close at 7:00 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!  

Georgia

Polls close at 7 PM ET.

• GA-03 (R) (64-34 Trump): Brian Jack, a former Donald Trump aide who has his old boss' endorsement, outpaced former state Sen. Mike Dugan 47-25 in the first round, making him the favorite to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Drew Ferguson in this seat in Atlanta's southwestern exurbs.

Jack consolidated his position by earning the backing of the third- and fourth-place finishers, Mike Crane and Philip Singleton, who took a combined 23% of the vote in the first round. Outside groups, including the crypto-aligned Defend American Jobs, have also deployed over $800,000 to help Jack in the runoff, while there's been no serious spending for Dugan.

Virginia

Polls close at 7 PM ET.

• VA-02 (D) (50-48 Biden): Two Democrats vying to take on Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, who flipped a swing district based in Virginia Beach last cycle and will likely be a top Democratic target this year.

Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal, who lost a competitive race for the state Senate in 2019, has the support of the DCCC and all six members of Virginia's Democratic House delegation. Her rival is Jake Denton, an attorney whose late grandfather, Jeremiah Denton, represented Alabama in the Senate as a Republican in the 1980s.

Smasal has decisively outraised Denton, and there's been no outside spending in the primary.

• VA-05 (R) (53-45 Trump): Rep. Bob Good has spent his tenure as chair of the far-right House Freedom Caucus antagonizing GOP leaders and rank-and-file Republicans alike. Now, thanks to all the grief he's caused, the two-term congressman faces an uphill primary against state Sen. John McGuire for the right to keep representing this conservative district in central and southwest Virginia.

Good knows all about bitter intra-party battles: He first got to Congress by wresting the GOP nomination from then-Rep. Denver Riggleman at a Republican convention in 2020. But now a similar fate looms for him. Good infuriated Trump last year by endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' doomed presidential campaign, prompting Trump to exact his revenge last month by endorsing McGuire.

Good also was one of eight House Republicans who last fall voted to end the speakership of Kevin McCarthy, who's now looking to get even. On top of that, several conservative megadonors close to the party's current leadership are tired of Good's antics and want him gone. All of this has led outside groups to throw down close to $6 million to attack Good and promote McGuire.

But Good's allies, including the hardline Club for Growth and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's Protect Freedom PAC, haven't given up. They've spent almost $5 million on messaging arguing that Good, unlike McGuire, is an ardent conservative.

• VA-07 (D & R) (53-46 Biden): Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger decided not to seek reelection so she could focus on her 2025 bid for governor, spurring busy primaries on both sides for her district based in the southern exurbs of Washington, D.C.

The frontrunner in the seven-way Democratic contest is former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman, who, along with his identical twin brother, Alexander, was at the center of the scandal that led to Donald Trump's first impeachment in 2019.

Thanks to the siblings' high profile during that affair, Vindman has been one of the strongest fundraisers among House candidates in the nation. Vindman has also benefited from about $1.3 million in outside spending from a pair of super PACs: VoteVets, which promotes Democratic veterans, and Protect Progress, a group with ties to the crypto industry. The Washington Post, which has a large readership in Northern Virginia, is supporting him as well.

Vindman faces four current and former elected officials who have faulted him for not being active in politics in what's long been a competitive region and for sometimes displaying a lack of knowledge about local matters. However, the members of this quartet—Prince William County Supervisors Andrea Bailey and Margaret Franklin, Del. Briana Sewell, and Elizabeth Guzman—have each raised just a fraction ​of the money Vindman has at his disposal.

The only other third-party spending of note has come from a super PAC called Casa In Action, which has deployed $200,000 to promote Guzman, who would be the first Hispanic person to represent Virginia in Congress.

A late May internal poll for Vindman showed him beating Bailey 43-10, with his rivals taking single-digit support. No one has released any data to contradict the idea that Vindman is well-positioned to triumph in a contest where none of his many opponents have established themselves as the clear alternative.

Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping that Spanberger's absence will give them a chance to flip this seat. The main contender in the five-candidate field appears to be Green Beret veteran Derrick Anderson, who lost a close primary for this seat in 2022 and has House Speaker Mike Johnson's endorsement for his second try.

The other notable Republican is former Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton, who has the support of much of the Freedom Caucus. Both veterans have been attacking the other from the right, and their allies have spent well over $1 million on behalf of each man. Anderson's main support has come from the American Patriots PAC, which is funded by Republican megadonors Ken Griffin and Paul Singer, while Rand Paul's network is supporting Hamilton.

• VA-10 (D) (58-40 Biden): A dozen Democrats are campaigning to replace retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton in a district based in the southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Washington, D.C.

Wexton is backing state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who would be both Virginia's first Indian American and Hindu member of the House. Subramanyam has raised more money than most of his many opponents and has also gotten more than $500,000 in support from the Indian American Impact Fund.

Del. Dan Helmer, though, still enjoys a huge financial advantage over Subramanyam and the rest of this busy field. Helmer, an Army veteran and the top fundraiser in the race, has been the beneficiary of well over $5 million in outside spending. His largest ally is the crypto-aligned Protect Progress, while VoteVets is also spending to help him. In addition, the Washington Post has endorsed Helmer. 

However, few of Helmer's current constituents live in the congressional district he wants to represent, though he may have more serious concerns to worry about.

Four current and former officials in the Loudoun County Democratic Committee put out a statement during the final week of the race publicly accusing Helmer of engaging in "inappropriate behavior" with one of their number in 2018. One signatory told NOTUS that the committee's sexual harassment policy was adopted as a "direct result" of his actions. The candidate responded by denying what he called "baseless claims."

The race also includes four other current and former members of the state legislature: state Sen. Jennifer Boysko, Dels. Michelle Maldonado and David Reid, and former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn. But while Filler-Corn has raised considerably more than the rest of this foursome, her old legislative seat doesn't overlap with Wexton's district at all. Boysko has the same problem, while Maldonado and Reid have struggled to raise money.

Two other names to watch are defense contractor Krystle Kaul, who has self-funded much of her campaign, and former state Education Secretary Atif Qarni. Kaul would be the state's first Indian American or Sikh member of Congress, while Qarni would be both its first Pakistani American and Muslim representative.

The only survey we've seen here in recent weeks was a Qarni internal poll from mid-May that showed Helmer edging out Subramanyam 17-16, with Qarni and Filler-Corn respectively at 12% and 9%. That survey, however, was conducted with almost a month left to go before the primary.

Oklahoma 

Polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time. An Aug. 27 runoff would take place in any races where no candidate wins a majority of the vote.

• OK-04 (R) (65-33 Trump): Rep. Tom Cole faces an unexpectedly expensive primary battle thanks to the arrival of businessman Paul Bondar, who has spent over $5 million of his own money to portray the appropriations chairman as an insider who "voted with Democrats for billions in new deficit spending."

The 11-term incumbent, though, has benefited from almost $4 million in support from third-party groups. Those include the American Action Network, a nonprofit with ties to the House GOP leadership, which has been airing TV ads on the congressman's behalf. Cole and his allies have spent the campaign both touting his support from Trump and reminding voters that Bondar did not register to vote in Oklahoma until April—a month after he cast a ballot in the Texas primaries.

Three little-known candidates are also on the ballot, so it's possible that neither Cole nor Bondar will capture a majority of the vote on Tuesday. Bondar has been airing ads featuring that trio saying they'd back him in a hypothetical runoff.

‘Gunfluencer’ seeks Texas district where Uvalde massacre took place

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Voters in Texas return to the polls on Tuesday for primary runoffs in contests where no one earned a majority of the vote in the first round on March 5. 

Lone Star Republicans will decide whether to eject several incumbents who've run afoul with the base—including a prominent West Texas congressman and the speaker of the state House— in favor of more hardline options. They're also selecting nominees in another pair of congressional districts, including one where a longtime Democratic congressman was recently indicted.

Below you'll find our guide to the top runoffs to watch. The polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time in most of Texas, while they'll close an hour later in the small portion located in the Mountain Time Zone.

To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App of Texas' 38 congressional districts and 150 state House seats. No one has released any reliable polling for any of the contests we cover below.

You also can find Daily Kos Elections' calculations of the 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. And you'll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

• TX-12 (R) (58-40 Trump): State Rep. Craig Goldman led businessman John O'Shea 44-26 in the first round of the GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Kay Granger in a constituency based in western Fort Worth and its suburbs.

Goldman has maintained a huge fundraising edge over O'Shea throughout the contest, and almost all of the $1.1 million that super PACs have spent in the runoff has benefited the frontrunner. The state representative also sports endorsements from Granger, Gov. Greg Abbott, and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a powerful conservative who leads the state Senate.

O'Shea, though, is hoping that hard-right voters will make up a disproportionate share of the vote in round two and favor him over Goldman, a former legislative leader who is closer to the party establishment. O'Shea has also reminded voters that his opponent voted to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton, a far-right icon who is O'Shea's main ally, for corruption.

Goldman, for his part, is trying to avoid being outflanked on the right. The state representative has run ads blasting O'Shea for not voting in elections when Donald Trump, Abbott, and other prominent Republicans were on the ballot.

• TX-23 (R) (53-46 Trump): Far-right challenger Brandon Herrera, a gunmaker who has over 3 million YouTube followers, forced Rep. Tony Gonzales into a runoff after holding the incumbent to a 45-25 advantage in the March GOP primary for this sprawling district in West Texas.

Gonzales found himself in this predicament a year after the state GOP voted to censure him for, among other things, voting to confirm Joe Biden's victory in the hours after the Jan. 6 attacks and later supporting gun-safety legislation after the Uvalde school shooting, which happened in his district exactly two years ago on Friday. Herrera has continued to argue that Gonzales, who is a close ally of GOP leadership, is insufficiently conservative and voted "to track you and your family's vaccine status."

The congressman and his allies, though, have used their massive financial advantage to push their preferred narrative about Herrera, whom Gonzales has dubbed "a known neo-Nazi." Gonzales' side has highlighted Herrera's mockery of the Holocaust, veteran suicide, and even Barron Trump, and pointed out that he only relocated to Texas from North Carolina a few years ago.

Gonzales has the support of Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, and House leaders. Herrera's biggest backers, by contrast, are a pair of far-right congressmen from out of state: Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good of Virginia and Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz. (Gonzales also had some choice words for both of them.)

The winner will take on businessman Santos Limon, who won the Democratic nomination in the first round. Limon has struggled to raise money, but he could have an opening if Herrera pulls off an upset.

• TX-28 (R) (53-46 Biden): The Republican runoff to take on Rep. Henry Cuellar suddenly surged in importance after federal prosecutors indicted the congressman on corruption charges in early May.

GOP voters in this constituency, which includes Laredo and the eastern San Antonio suburbs, will choose between Navy veteran Jay Furman and businessman Lazaro Garza. Furman outpaced Garza 45-27 two months before Cuellar was charged. Neither Republican reported spending much money during the second round, and there has been no outside activity.

• TX State House (R): Eight Republicans in the ultra-conservative Texas House are fighting for renomination on Tuesday as two of the state's most powerful figures, Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, continue their campaign to push the chamber even further to the right.

By far the most prominent incumbent under fire is state House Speaker Dade Phelan, who trailed former Orange County Republican Party chair David Covey by a 46-43 margin in the first round of voting for the speaker's dark red East Texas seat, which is numbered the 21st District.

Covey already had the support of Paxton and Donald Trump, who are looking to punish Phelan for supporting Paxton's impeachment last year. Abbott has remained neutral in this contest, though the governor and his political network are targeting several other representatives who successfully blocked his plan to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools. Abbott is also active in a pair of open-seat races where he's trying to install his favored candidates.

The runoff between Phelan and Covey has been exceptionally expensive for a contest in the 150-member House. AdImpact reported Thursday that Covey and his allies, including the anti-tax Club for Growth, have outspent the speaker's side $2.4 million to $2 million in advertising.

It’s money vs. the establishment in unpredictable Senate primary in Maryland

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Voters in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia pick their nominees Tuesday in a set of high-profile primaries for state and federal offices where it takes just a simple plurality to win.

That's not all that's in store, though. North Carolina will host runoffs in contests where no one earned at least 30% of the vote in the first round of the primary on March 5—though only in races where the runner-up officially requested a second round. Finally, voters in Anchorage are taking part in a competitive general election to determine the next leader of Alaska's largest city.

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close at 7:30 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!

North Carolina

Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.

• NC-LG (R) (50-49 Trump): The main contest on a mostly quiet night in North Carolina is the race to succeed far-right Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who is the Republican nominee for governor. (Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately.)

Hal Weatherman, who has worked as a top staffer for several extremist politicians, led Forsyth County District Attorney Jim O'Neill 20-16 in the first round on March 5. Robinson went on to endorse Weatherman for the second round. The winner will go up against state Sen. Rachel Hunt, who won the Democratic nomination two months ago.

The GOP primary for the 13th Congressional District will also be on the ballot, but the race ended in early May when wealthy attorney Kelly Daughtry ended her campaign and endorsed former federal prosecutor Brad Knott. Another congressional district that had been slated to host a runoff, the 6th, won't have one because former Rep. Mark Walker dropped out in March when there was still time to call off a second round.

West Virginia

Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.

• WV-Sen (R) (69-30 Trump): Republicans were well-positioned to flip West Virginia's Senate seat even before Democrat Joe Manchin announced his retirement in November, and there was never much suspense about who the GOP's nominee will be: Gov. Jim Justice, who is termed out of his current post, has the support of Donald Trump and the GOP establishment in a seven-way primary. 

Rep. Alex Mooney hoped to position himself as a hardline alternative to Justice, who was elected governor as a Democrat in 2016 and switched parties the next year, but the one-time Maryland legislator has failed to reverse his massive deficit in the polls. The typically free-spending Club for Growth all but gave up on Mooney well before Election Day, telling Politico that Trump's endorsement of Justice left the congressman without "a viable path forward."

• WV-Gov (R) (69-30 Trump): Republicans have an ugly and expensive six-person race to replace Jim Justice as governor that's been defined by escalating transphobic campaign ads from the three main candidates. That trio consists of Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, former Del. Moore Capito, and wealthy car dealership owner Chris Miller.

Morrisey, despite his failure to unseat Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in 2018, has been the frontrunner from the start. The Club for Growth and an affiliated organization have spent $10 million on ads praising the attorney general or attacking his rivals, which is far more than any other campaign or group has deployed.

The other main candidates, though, have prominent connections. Capito is the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito and the grandson of the late Gov. Arch Moore, and he earned Justice's endorsement a month ahead of the primary. Miller, whose mother is Rep. Carol Miller, has used his wealth to finance ads touting himself as an outsider. 

Secretary of State Mac Warner is also in the hunt, but he's struggled to bring in money and has aired few ads. Morrisey's backers started running ads targeting Warner in the final days, though, a sign that they believe he could cost their candidate votes. Two little-known Republicans also are on the ballot.

Almost every poll has shown Morrisey in the lead, though surveys disagree about both the size of his advantage and whether either Capito or Miller is his main opponent. A late April survey for a pro-Capito group showed the former legislator beating Morrisey 31-23, but no one has released corroborating data.

• WV-01 (R): Rep. Carol Miller faces an intra-party challenge from former Del. Derrick Evans, who served 90 days in prison for his participation in the Jan. 6 riot, in a constituency based in the southern half of the state.

Miller, who voted against recognizing Joe Biden's victory hours after the attack on the Capitol, doesn't appear to have done anything obvious that might alienate hardliners, but she's still taking Evans seriously. The congresswoman began airing ads late in the contest reminding viewers that Evans ran for the legislature as a Democrat in 2016.

• WV-02 (R): Five Republicans are campaigning to replace Senate candidate Alex Mooney in the district located in the northern half of West Virginia, but there's been one obvious frontrunner from the beginning. 

Treasurer Riley Moore, who is the nephew of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, started running in November of 2022 and enjoys the support of both Mooney and Speaker Mike Johnson. Moore has also benefited from over $1.1 million in outside spending, with most of that coming from a crypto-aligned group called Defend American Jobs.

Moore's main opponent appears to be retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Chris Walker, who would be the state's first Black member of Congress. Walker has raised a credible sum of money despite entering the race just four months before the primary, but he's gotten no notable outside support in this uphill battle.

Maryland

Polls close at 8 PM ET.

• MD-Sen (D) (65-32 Biden): Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone are the main candidates in a closely watched 10-person primary to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin, a fellow Democrat who has not taken sides in the contest. The winner will likely take on former Gov. Larry Hogan, who should have no trouble winning the Republican primary.

Alsobrooks would be both Maryland's first Black senator and the first woman to represent the state in either chamber of Congress in eight years. She's benefited from high-profile support from Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen, and most of Trone's colleagues in the state's House delegation, as well as an endorsement from the Washington Post.

But Trone, who is a co-founder of the liquor retailer Total Wine, is using his personal resources in a bid to overcome Alsobrooks's extensive establishment support. The congressman has poured over $60 million of his own money into his campaign, which is more than any candidate for Senate has ever self-funded for a primary.

Trone began running TV ads a full year before the primary, and according to AdImpact, he's outspent Alsobrook on commercials by a lopsided $46 million to $4 million spread as of Friday. Alsobrook's allies at EMILYs List have deployed over $2 million to help her overcome this gap, though there's been no other major outside spending on her behalf. Trone, who is white, has used many of his ads to tout his support from Black figures like state Attorney General Anthony Brown.

During the final weeks, the congressman has argued that he'd be a stronger opponent for Hogan and that Alsobrooks has done a poor job in elected office, though some of his messages attracted the wrong type of attention. His team edited a commercial to remove a line arguing that the Senate "is not a place for training wheels," a phrase Alsobrooks' allies charged was racist and sexist. EMILYs, meanwhile, has highlighted Trone's past donations to Republicans in its ads.

Almost every survey has shown Trone ahead, with an independent poll from early April placing his advantage at 48-29. However, there has been little data from the final weeks of the race.

• MD-02 (D) (59-39 Biden): Retiring Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger and much of the state's Democratic establishment are supporting Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski in the six-person primary for this suburban Baltimore seat. The only other notable contender is Del. Harry Bhandari, but he faces a wide financial and institutional disadvantage against Olszewski.

• MD-03 (D) (62-36 Biden): There are 22 names on the Democratic primary ballot to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes, but most of the attention has centered on two of them: retired Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who helped defend Congress during the Jan. 6 riot, and state Sen. Sarah Elfreth.

Dunn's national fame helped him raise over $4.5 million from his campaign launch in January through April 24, a truly massive sum for a House candidate in such a short amount of time. But while that's about three times as much as Elfreth brought in, she's benefited from another $4.2 million in outside spending from the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC.

Dunn has responded by airing ads blasting Elfreth for the help she's received from the organization, which he characterized as a "right-wing SuperPAC funded by Trump donors." Elfreth, who has Sen. Ben Cardin's support, has emphasized her roots in the district, which includes the state capital of Annapolis and several of Baltimore's suburbs—a not-too-subtle contrast to Dunn, who does not live in the 3rd District. (Members of Congress do not need to live in the district they represent.)

Dunn and Elfreth have overshadowed the rest of the field, but it's possible someone else could pull off an upset in this packed race. The roster includes state Sen. Clarence Lam, labor attorney John Morse, and three members of the state House of Delegates: Mark Chang, Terri Hill, and Mike Rogers.

• MD-06 (D & R) (54-44 Biden): Democratic Rep. David Trone's decision to run for the Senate has set off a pair of busy primaries to replace him in a constituency that contains the western part of the state and a slice of the Washington, D.C. suburbs.

There are 16 names on the Democratic ballot (though some of those candidates have dropped out), though former U.S. Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney is the frontrunner. Delaney is the wife of former Rep. John Delaney, who represented the previous version of the 6th District for three terms before leaving office in 2019 for an ill-fated bid for president, and she's brought in considerably more money than her opponents thanks in part to self-funding.

Delaney's main intra-party opponent looks to be Del. Joe Vogel, a 27-year-old who identifies as Jewish, Latino, and gay. Thanks in part to the unique profile he'd have in Congress, he's attracted national attention. He's also benefited from about $400,000 in support from Equality PAC, which is affiliated with the Congressional LGBTQ Equality Caucus, while there's been no comparable outside spending for anyone else.

Vogel has aired ads attacking Delaney for her past donations to and friendships with hard-right Republicans, but both sides disagree on the state of the race. A late April survey for Equality PAC found the two deadlocked 24-24, but a Delaney internal conducted a week from Election Day placed her ahead 37-24. 

What both polls do agree on is that the rest of the field is mired in the single digits. This roster includes Del. Lesley Lopez, Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez, and Montgomery County Councilmember Laurie-Anne Sayles.

The two most familiar names on the GOP side are former Dels. Dan Cox and Neil Parrott, who both lost high-profile elections in 2022. Cox, an election conspiracy theorist, was the party's disastrous nominee for governor, while Parrott lost to Trone by a 55-45 margin. Both men, though, brought in considerably less money than Navy veteran Tom Royals, who would give his party a comparatively fresh face.

• Baltimore Mayor (D) (87-11 Biden): First-term Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott faces a competitive primary battle against one of the most prominent and controversial figures in local politics, former Mayor Sheila Dixon.

Dixon resigned as mayor in 2010 after she was convicted of stealing gift cards that were supposed to help needy families, but she's retained a loyal base of support among voters who remember her as a leader who helped bring down the city's murder rate. Dixon came close to winning back her old post in the 2016 primary and again in 2020, when Scott narrowly beat her 30-27.

Scott himself has touted a drop in the homicide rate, but critics still argue he's done a poor job addressing crime. Those naysayers include Baltimore Sun co-owner David Smith, a prominent conservative who has financed a super PAC that's labeled Scott a "nice guy, bad mayor."

The incumbent has enjoyed a sizable fundraising advantage over Dixon, though his lead in two April polls that showed him ahead by single-digit margins was less decisive. There haven't been any more recent surveys, though, in a contest that's been overshadowed by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

Eleven others are on the ballot, including former federal prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah, who dropped out and endorsed Dixon in early May. Scott and Dixon, however, are the only serious contenders. Winning the Democratic primary has long been tantamount to election in this loyally blue city, and that remains the case in 2024.

Nebraska

Polls close at 9 PM ET. While Nebraska is split between the Central and Mountain time zones, polls close in the entire state at the same time.

• NE-02 (R) (52-46 Biden): Both parties are preparing for a competitive rematch between Republican Rep. Don Bacon and Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas two years after Bacon's 51-49 victory, but the congressman first must dispatch a far-right candidate from yesteryear.

Businessman Dan Frei campaigned against then-Rep. Lee Terry in 2014 for the previous version of this Omaha-based seat and held that incumbent to a shockingly close 53-47 victory. Many Republicans still blame Frei for Terry's defeat that fall, so his decision to take on Bacon left his detractors with some uncomfortable déjà vu.

Bacon, though, has tried to dispel worries of a repeat by releasing a pair of surveys showing him easily defeating Frei, who has acknowledged he doesn't have the money to pay for his own polls. Trump, despite his past feuds with Bacon, has not backed Frei.

Alaska

Polls close at 12:00 AM ET Wednesday / 8 PM Tuesday local time.

• Anchorage, AK Mayor (49-48 Biden): Far-right Mayor Dave Bronson faces a difficult reelection battle against former Anchorage Assembly Chair Suzanne LaFrance, an independent who has the support of the local Democratic Party. The winner of this officially nonpartisan election will serve a three-year term, as Anchorage is the rare major American city where terms last an odd number of years.

LaFrance, whose previous role made her the leader of the local equivalent of a city council, led Bronson 36-35 in the first round of voting on April 2. Former Anchorage Economic Development Corp. CEO Bill Popp, an independent who took third with 17%, went on to endorse LaFrance for the second round. However, former Democratic state Rep. Chris Tuck, who took 8%, has remained neutral.

LaFrance, who has outraised Bronson, has argued he's been an "incompetent" and divisive leader who's done a poor job addressing issues like homelessness and snow removal. The mayor has hit back by arguing that, with progressives already in charge of the city's governing body, "our ultra-woke Assembly will have a rubber stamp at City Hall" if he's not reelected.

Can you go home again? GOP congresswoman hoping to un-retire is about to find out

Posted on by Jeff Singer

The downballot primary season comes to Indiana on Tuesday, where Republicans have expensive and nasty nomination contests to sort through for governor and a quartet of U.S. House seats—including one race where a mercurial congresswoman is about to discover whether it's possible to un-retire a year after calling it quits.

Below you'll find our guide to the key primaries to watch. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public. 

To help you follow along, you can find an interactive map from Dave's Redistricting App of the Hoosier State's nine congressional districts. You also can find Daily Kos Elections' calculations of the 2020 presidential results for each district, as well as our geographic descriptions of each seat. And you'll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

We'll begin our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections at 6 PM ET. That's when polls close in the part of Indiana located in the Eastern time zone, which is home to over 80% of the state's residents. Polls close an hour later in the remaining portion of the state based in the Central time zone.

• IN-Gov (R) (57-41 Trump): Six Republicans are on the ballot to replace termed-out GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb, but one of them has been the dominant frontrunner throughout the entire primary. Sen. Mike Braun began the contest with a significant advantage in name recognition, and Donald Trump gave him another boost by endorsing him in November.

The senator's rivals, though, are hoping he's not as formidable as he appears. A pair of wealthy businessmen, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers and former Indiana Economic Development Corporation president Eric Doden, have poured millions of their own money into ads promoting themselves and attacking Braun. Another Republican, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, is also in the hunt, but she hasn't had access to the same resources.

However, a pair of polls conducted in late March and early April showed Braun far ahead of the rest of the field with Chambers, Crouch, and Doden all struggling to emerge as his main rival, much less beat him. Two other candidates, disgraced former Attorney General Curtis Hill and conservative activist Jamie Reitenour, are also running, but they've struggled to raise money or attract support.

The winner will go up against former Superintendent of Public Institution Jennifer McCormick, a one-time Republican who is uncontested in the Democratic primary.

• IN-03 (R) (64-34 Trump): Rep. Jim Banks has no opposition in the GOP primary to replace Braun in the Senate, but Republicans have an eight-way fight to replace Banks in his Fort Wayne-area district. The main four contenders are former Rep. Marlin Stutzman, who is Banks' immediate predecessor; former Judge Wendy Davis (no, not that Wendy Davis); wealthy businessman Tim Smith; and state Sen. Andy Zay.

Stutzman, who among other things participated in the push to oust John Boehner as speaker in 2015, was one of leadership's least-favorite members during his previous stint in office, and GOP honchos weren't sad when he badly lost a Senate primary the following year to fellow Rep. Todd Young.

His detractors still don't want him returning to Congress, though. America Leads Action, a super PAC dedicated to defeating hardliners who could make trouble for the current crop of House leaders, has spent $1.8 million to stop his comeback.

Anti-establishment hardliners, though, are working to counteract ALA's offensive. Stutzman has benefited from close to $800,000 in support from Protect Freedom PAC, a group allied with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, as well as from super PACs affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus, which once counted Stutzman as a member. The like-minded Club for Growth, which was close to Stutzman during his first stint in office, has also deployed more than $750,000 attacking Davis and Smith.

Davis, meanwhile, has benefited from around $1.1 million that Winning for Women, a super PAC dedicated to electing conservative women, has spent on her behalf. Smith, who badly lost the 2019 race for mayor of Fort Wayne, hasn't gotten any outside help, but he's used his wealth to outspend all of his rivals' campaigns.

Zay, finally, has mostly gone ignored, except for some $120,000 that a super PAC called Honest Hoosiers has expended to help him.

• IN-05 (R) (57-41 Trump): Rep. Victoria Spartz announced her retirement from Congress in January of 2023 only to reverse herself 13 months later by launching a bid for a third term. But while she was off in the wilderness, other Republicans charged in to succeed her, and now she faces an expensive primary battle to keep her seat in central Indiana.

Spartz's main intra-party foe is state Rep. Chuck Goodrich, a wealthy businessman who launched his campaign for what was at the time an open seat and wasn't deterred by the incumbent's reversal. Seven other Republicans are also running, though, including former Kevin McCarthy aide Max Engling and businessman Raju Chinthala, so their presence could help Spartz win renomination with a plurality.

Goodrich has pumped $4.6 million of his own money into his campaign, and he's aired ads hitting the congresswoman for her many about-faces while in office. The state representative has aired commercials charging that Spartz, who is a Ukrainian immigrant, "put Ukraine first"—a message he stuck with even after her vote against the most recent round of aid to the country where she was born. Goodrich has also taken Spartz to task over a 2022 Politico story alleging that she bullied her staff.

Spartz, who relaunched her campaign just three months before the primary, has considerably less money than Goodrich, though she's self-funded $700,000 to finance her cause. The congresswoman has aired commercials touting herself as a Trump ally while arguing that Goodrich has cast votes that benefited China. A late March Goodrich internal showed him trailing Spartz by a small 33-30 margin, but no one has released any data since then.

• IN-06 (R) (65-33 Trump): Seven Republicans are campaigning to replace retiring GOP Rep. Greg Pence, who is the brother of Mike Pence, in a constituency that includes a portion of Indianapolis as well as part of east-central Indiana.

The best-funded candidate by far is wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve, who has poured $5.6 million of his own money into his campaign just months after throwing down more than twice that sum on a failed bid for mayor of Indianapolis. Only about 30% of Pence's constituents live in Indiana's capital city, though, so most voters didn't have the chance to cast ballots for—or against—Shreve last November.

State Rep. Mike Speedy, meanwhile, has dumped $1.5 million of his fortune into his own effort, and while that's not anywhere close to what Shreve's deployed, Speedy is hoping it's still enough to get his message out. The lawmaker has aired ads attacking Shreve for campaigning as a moderate in his unsuccessful campaign to unseat Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett last year.

The contest also features a third self-funder, businessman Jamison Carrier, who has thrown down $750,000 of his money. The GOP field further includes state Sen. Jeff Raatz, who has struggled to keep up with this financial onslaught, as well as three other hopefuls.

• IN-08 (R) (65-33 Trump): Rep. Larry Bucshon is retiring from a once-competitive southwestern Indiana seat that turned dark red during the previous decade. Now eight of his fellow Republicans want to succeed him.

Perhaps the most familiar name belongs to former Rep. John Hostettler, who badly lost his 2006 bid for a seventh term back when this constituency was still nicknamed the "Bloody 8th" due to its propensity to change hands. While Hostettler hasn't been on the ballot since he took a distant third place in a 2010 Senate primary, his existing name recognition, as well as his son's position as a local state representative, could help him win despite his meager fundraising.

An array of outside groups, however, want to keep that from happening. America Leads Action remembers how difficult Hostettler was for his party's leaders during his previous time in office, while both the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC and the Republican Jewish Coalition resent both the former congressman's voting record and his attempt to blame Jews for the Bush administration's decision to invade Iraq. Hostettler has continued to employ antisemitic rhetoric during his comeback effort.

This trio of third-party outfits has deployed a total of $4 million to attack Hostettler and promote one of his opponents, state Sen. Mark Messmer, who has also received close to another $1 million in help from another collection of super PACs. Hostettler, however, isn't being left to fend for himself, as Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's Protect Freedom PAC and another organization affiliated with Senate frontrunner Jim Banks have expended around $800,000 to aid him.

The field also includes a pair of self-funders, former Trump staffer Dominick Kavanaugh and physician Richard Moss, who haven't attracted much attention from outside groups. Moss badly lost primaries to Bucshon in both 2016 and 2018, while yet another candidate, Owen County party chair ​​Kristi Risk, campaigned against the outgoing congressman in previous cycles.

The year’s first downballot primaries start Tuesday. Here’s our guide to all the key races

Posted on by Jeff Singer

With both parties' presidential nomination contests all but decided, the nation's downballot primary season starts with a bang Tuesday. Five states—including the two largest—pick their candidates for state and federal offices in elections that will help shape the state of play in key races at all levels.

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch on Super Tuesday, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public. You can also check out our most recent episode of "The Downballot" podcast for an even deeper dive on many of these primaries.

Two states on the docket will also be using brand-new congressional maps, though for very different reasons. In Alabama, a federal court drew up new boundaries after ruling that the Voting Rights Act required the creation of a second seat where Black voters could elect their preferred candidate. In North Carolina, though, the Republican-controlled state Supreme Court gave GOP legislators the green light to draw up an aggressive new gerrymander, a task they eagerly took on.

You can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Alabama and North Carolina's new boundaries, as well as the maps that first came into use in 2022 for Arkansas, California, and Texas.

You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close at 7:30 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!

North Carolina

Polls close at 7:30 PM ET. Candidates must take at least 30% of the vote to avert a May 14 runoff, though the second-place finisher must officially request a runoff for one to occur.

• NC-Gov (R & D) (50-49 Trump): Tar Heel State politicos have long anticipated that the race to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper will pit Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson against Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein, and every primary poll shows just such a matchup coming to pass.

While Robinson's intraparty critics have warned that his past screeds—which run the gamut from antisemitic and Islamophobic to misogynistic, homophobic, and transphobic—as well as his ardent opposition to reproductive rights could cost them the general election, primary voters appear unconvinced. The Donald Trump-endorsed lieutenant governor holds a wide lead against both wealthy businessman Bill Graham, who has spent millions on ads attacking Robinson's past statements, and state Treasurer Dale Folwell.

Stein, who has Cooper's support, also enjoys a big advantage over former state Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan and three other Democrats.

• NC-01 (R) (50-49 Biden): Republican legislators targeted freshman Democratic Rep. Don Davis by transforming his seat in the inland, northeastern corner of the state from a constituency Biden carried 53-46 into one he barely won. Now Army veteran Laurie Buckhout and two-time nominee Sandy Smith are competing for the Republican nomination and take on Davis. Both Smith and especially Buckhout have self-funded a significant portion of their campaigns, and both are campaigning as ardent Trump allies.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a well-funded super PAC that's close to House GOP leadership, has spent about $200,000 to stop Smith from advancing for the second cycle in a row. Two years ago, CLF failed to stop Smith, who was accused of physical abuse by her daughter and two ex-husbands, from winning the nomination, but it's hoping its latest intervention will be more successful. 

Smith, who has run ads declaring that Trump won the 2020 election and denied her own 52-48 loss to Davis, has also sought to portray Buckhout as an interloper from Virginia and attacked her for getting a 2017 DUI conviction removed from the record. Buckhout, for her part, has largely avoided going after Smith.

• NC-06 (R) (58-41 Trump): Six Republicans are competing to replace Rep. Kathy Manning, who is one of three Democratic House members who is not seeking reelection in a seat that Republicans made all but unwinnable for her party.

Lobbyist Addison McDowell arguably became the front-runner hours before he even announced his candidacy, after Trump endorsed his bid for this district in the central Piedmont region. But the first-time candidate faces several opponents who have been on the ballot in North Carolina before, though they and their allies largely focused on attacking one another rather than McDowell.

One familiar name to national observers is Bo Hines, a former college football player who narrowly lost the 2022 general election to Democrat Wiley Nickel 52-48 in the old 13th. Another is former Rep. Mark Walker, who represented previous versions of the 6th from 2015 to 2021. Also in the running are Christian Castelli, a self-funder who badly lost to Manning last cycle under the previous map; former High Point Mayor Jay Wagner; and Mary Ann Contogiannis, who took third against Castelli in the last primary. 

The Club for Growth, a well-funded anti-tax group that's had an on-again, off-again feud with Trump, is supporting Hines and has spent about $1 million attacking Walker. A super PAC backed by hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin called Conservatives for American Excellence, though, has spent a comparable amount to leverage the Club's anti-Trump apostasies against Hines.

• NC-08 (R) (58-41 Trump): Far-right Rep. Dan Bishop is leaving Congress to run for attorney general, and six fellow Republicans are on the ballot to replace him in a seat based in the eastern Charlotte suburbs and rural areas further east. The two contenders who have the most money by far are a pair of self-funders, state Rep. John Bradford and former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom, but it's a third hopeful who has attracted the most outside attention.

That candidate is pastor Mark Harris, whose 2018 House campaign for the old 9th District was responsible for one the most ignominious election-fraud scandals in recent memory. Election authorities threw out the result and ordered a do-over election, which Bishop ultimately won, but Harris still insists he was the rightful winner. Despite his baggage, Harris enjoys the backing of the party's front-runner for governor, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

However, a super PAC called America Leads Action, which is funded by a pair of prominent conservative donors, is working to end Harris' political career once and for all, spending more than $1.8 million on negative ads. There's been no accompanying pro-Harris spending.

• NC-10 (R) (57-41 Trump): Five Republicans are facing off to succeed GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry, who startled the political world when he announced his retirement in December, in a seat that includes Winston-Salem and the western Piedmont region. Only two contenders, though, have brought in a serious amount of money, and they're both self-funders: state Rep. Grey Mills and firearms manufacturer Pat Harrigan, who was the 2022 GOP nominee against Democrat Jeff Jackson in the old 14th District.

Harrigan has Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's backing, and he's benefited from close to $600,000 in support from two groups, the Koch network's Americans for Prosperity and the Elect Principled Veterans Fund. But another conservative group, GOPAC, has spent over $1.5 million attacking Harrigan on immigration and praising Mills.

• NC-13 (R) (58-41 Trump): Republicans have a 14-way primary to replace another Democrat who is leaving Congress because of GOP gerrymandering, Rep. Wiley Nickel, in a seat based in the Raleigh exurbs and nearby rural areas. There's a good chance this packed contest will go to a runoff, and four contenders appear to have a shot to advance. 

Three of those candidates have unsuccessfully run for office in recent years. Both businessman DeVan Barbour and attorney Kelly Daughtry competed in the 2022 primary for the previous version of the 13th District (the eventual nominee, Bo Hines, is now seeking the 6th District), while businessman Fred Von Canon was the party's nominee for the state House in 2020 and 2022. The final big name is a first-time candidate, former federal prosecutor Brad Knott. A fifth candidate worth watching though, is Josh McConkey, who won more than $750,000 from the state lottery during the campaign.

Daughtry and Von Canon have each self-funded much of their campaigns, while Knott's family has financed a super PAC called American Foundations Committee to aid him and attack those two rivals. Daughtry's backers at Conservative Voters Alliance have also aired ads to boost her and undermine Knott and Von Canon, while no major independent expenditures have been made either for or against Barbour or McConkey.

Barbour attracted unwanted attention a few weeks before Election Day when a woman accused the married candidate of repeatedly propositioning her for sex in 2021, an allegation he denied. Knott also drew unfavorable headlines during the final week of the race after acknowledging he spent close to a decade voting from his parents' address despite owning a home three miles away.

• NC-AG (D) (50-49 Trump): Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson launched his bid to replace Attorney General Josh Stein right after Republicans gerrymandered his seat in the House, and he goes into Tuesday with a huge fundraising advantage over his two main foes, Durham County District Attorney Satana Deberry and attorney Tim Dunn. A mid-February Change Research poll for the progressive site Carolina Forward shows Jackson outpacing Deberry 38-14.

However, Republicans appeared to make a late push to boost Deberry, whom they likely believe would be an easier candidate to beat. A new group with GOP ties called And Justice For All PAC has been running ads to promote Deberry, an effort Jackson claimed was "on track" to spend $1 million. The winner will face far-right Rep. Dan Bishop, an election denier who has no opposition in the GOP primary. 

Other North Carolina races to watch:

Alabama

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time. A runoff will take place on April 16 in contests where no one earns a majority of the vote.

• AL-01 (R) (75-24 Trump): Republican Rep. Barry Moore decided to run for this southern Alabama seat after the state's new court-drawn map turned his 2nd District into a Democratic-leaning constituency. Moore, however, faces a difficult primary battle against fellow Rep. Jerry Carl. No other candidates are on the ballot, so this contest should be settled without a runoff.

Carl, who serves the existing 1st District, began the race as the front-runner, in part because he currently represents 59% of the new 1st, while Moore's seat forms the balance. Carl also started off with more money than his colleague and has maintained that advantage, though outside groups have spent comparable amounts for both congressmen.

Both incumbents are ardent conservatives who voted against recognizing Joe Biden's 2020 win, and they're each trying to argue that the other has strayed from MAGA orthodoxy. However, there's a key difference between them: Moore is a member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, while Carl is closer to the party leadership. A poll conducted in the final week of the race by Auburn University at Montgomery found Carl ahead 43-35.

• AL-02 (D) (56-43 Biden): Eleven Democrats are running to replace Republican Rep. Barry Moore in a revamped seat that now takes in Mobile, Montgomery, and the eastern Black Belt, so it's very likely this primary will go to a runoff.

The only candidate who has benefited from significant outside spending is former Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who is the son of a longtime Mobile elected official, state Sen. Vivian Figures. The younger Figures has received more than $1.3 million in support from a super PAC with ties to the cryptocurrency industry, while no major groups have spent anything to attack him.

The field also includes five state legislators, though only two of them―state Reps. Napoleon Bracy and Jeremy Gray―actually represent any part of the new 2nd District. But a third lawmaker, state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels, has emphasized that he grew up in the Black Belt (even though he now represents Huntsville, at the far end of the state), and he's brought in more money than anyone else in the race.

Also in the running are two legislators from the Birmingham area, state Sen. Merika Coleman and state Rep. Juandalynn Givan.

Texas

The first polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time in the portion of Texas located in the Central time zone, which includes about 97% of the state's population. Polls close in the rest of the state (a much smaller region in the El Paso area that's in the Mountain time zone) one hour later. A runoff will take place on May 28 in contests in which no one takes a majority of the vote.

• TX-Sen (D) (52-46 Trump): Republican Sen. Ted Cruz holds one of just two Senate seats that Democrats have a realistic shot at flipping this cycle, and nine candidates are hoping to take him on. Rep. Colin Allred, who won his own competitive 2018 race for a seat in the Dallas area, has been the party's front-runner from the start, and he's enjoyed a huge fundraising lead over the rest of the field.

Allred's main opponent is state Sen. Roland Gutierrez, who became a prominent gun-safety activist after the 2022 Uvalde school shooting, which took place in his district. Every poll has shown Allred well ahead, but a pair of February polls disagree on whether the congressman is primed to avoid a runoff. The contest also includes state Rep. Carl Sherman and former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez.

• TX-12 (R) (58-40 Trump): Longtime Rep. Kay Granger is retiring from her seat in western Fort Worth and its adjacent suburbs, and five fellow Republicans are campaigning to take her place. The front-runner appears to be state Rep. Craig Goldman, who has the support of Gov. Greg Abbott and has decisively outspent the rest of the field. 

Goldman's main rival is businessman John O'Shea, who began running well before Granger announced her departure in November. O'Shea has the backing of Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom Goldman voted to impeach last year, but he's not getting any major super PAC support.

Conservatives for American Excellence, though, has spent around $600,000 on ads boosting Goldman and attacking O'Shea. Also worth watching is businesswoman Shellie Gardner, a self-funder who is also the self-proclaimed "Queen of Christmas Lights."

• TX-18 (D) (74-25 Biden): Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee announced she would seek a 16th term just two days after she was blown out by state Sen. John Whitmire, a fellow Democrat, in December's runoff to serve as mayor of Houston. Now, however, she faces a tough battle to keep her job. Former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who once was a Jackson Lee intern, spent months campaigning for this seat while the incumbent was running for mayor, and she decided to remain in the race even after the congressman sought to run again.

Edwards, who, at 42, is over three decades younger than her opponent, has pitched herself as an agent of change and largely avoided attacking Jackson Lee. The incumbent's critics, though, are hoping that Jackson Lee was weakened by last year's bruising campaign against Whitmire, which included the release of audio where a person who sounded like Jackson Lee berated her employees. (Jackson Lee neither confirmed nor denied the voice was hers but issued a statement saying she had "fallen short of my own standards.")

The only poll we've seen was a University of Houston survey from mid-February that showed Jackson Lee edging out her better-funded rival by a narrow 43-39 margin. Another 3% went to restauranter Rob Slater, who has raised little money but could keep either Jackson Lee or Edwards from taking the majority they'd need to avert a runoff. 

• TX-23 (R) (53-46 Trump): Four hard-liners are trying to deny renomination to GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales, who was censured by the state party last year, in a sprawling West Texas seat. The incumbent infuriated the far right by, among other things, voting to confirm Joe Biden's victory in the hours after the Jan. 6 attacks and later supporting gun-safety legislation after the Uvalde school shooting, which happened in his district. None of these apostasies, though, have prevented Gonzales from far outraising all of his rivals.

The challenger who has attracted the most attention (and money) is gunmaker Brandon Herrera, who has over 3 million subscribers on his YouTube channel, where he's known as "The AK Guy." Another name to watch is former Medina County GOP Chair Julie Clark, who has self-funded around $900,000 but raised little from donors.

• TX-26 (R) (59-40 Trump): Republicans have an 11-way primary underway to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Michael Burgess in the northern Fort Worth suburbs and exurbs, but Donald Trump and his allies know exactly who they want to win.

Far-right media figure Brandon Gill, who is the son-in-law of MAGA toady Dinesh D'Souza, sports endorsements from Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and the Club for Growth. Gill, who has self-funded much of his campaign, has outspent his rivals and has benefited from more than $750,000 in outside support from the Club and an outfit funded by D'Souza called Right Texas.

Several major GOP donors, though, are taking action to stop Gill. America Leads Action and Conservatives for American Excellence have spent a combined $2 million to sink him, an effort that includes ads blasting Gill as a "Wall Street banker" whose "bank did business with communist China."

But it's hard to say who might stop Gill because none of the other 10 candidates have attracted anything like this attention. Gill's main rival is arguably Southlake Mayor John Huffman, the sole sitting elected official in the race. But other notables include former Denton County Judge Scott Armey, who lost a previous version of this seat to Burgess in a nasty 2002 runoff; Luisa Del Rosal, who previously served as chief of staff to 23rd District Rep. Tony Gonzales; and former State District Judge Doug Robison.

• TX-32 (D) (66-33 Biden): Rep. Colin Allred's decision to run for the Senate has opened up his diverse constituency in northern Dallas, prompting 10 fellow Democrats to campaign to succeed him. A pair of contenders, though, have stood out as the front-runners since the early days of the race and appear poised to advance to a likely runoff.

Those two candidates are state Rep. Julie Johnson, who was the first Texas legislator with a same-sex spouse, and Brian Williams, a trauma surgeon who attracted national attention in 2016 after he treated Dallas police officers wounded by a sniper. Both have far outraised their eight rivals, while Johnson has further benefited from around $1 million in support from a crypto-aligned super PAC called Protect Progress.

Also in the running are businessman Raja Chaudhry; Alex Cornwallis, who was the party's 2022 nominee for a seat on the state Board of Education; former Dallas City Council member Kevin Felder; and civil rights attorney Justin Moore.

Other Texas races to watch:

Arkansas 

Polls close at 8:30 PM ET / 7:30 local time. A runoff will take place on April 2 in contests where no one earns a majority of the vote.

• AR-03 (R) (60-37 Trump): Republican Rep. Steve Womack, a self-described "institution guy" who voted to recognize Joe Biden's 2020 win, faces a far-right primary challenge from state Sen. Clint Penzo. But while Penzo has pledged to join the Freedom Caucus if elected to this northwest Arkansas seat, like-minded donors and super PACs have done little to help the underfunded legislator get his message out. No other candidates are on the GOP primary ballot.

California

Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time. All candidates running for Congress and for state office compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries; the two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, will then advance to the Nov. 5 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in March by taking a majority of the vote, except in some officially nonpartisan elections.

• CA-Sen (63-34 Biden): Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff has massively outspent his 26 rivals in the race for the Senate seat that Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein held for 31 years until her death last fall (appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler is not running), and he appears to be on track to continue to the second round. Schiff and his super-PAC allies, though, are also working to make sure he gets to face a Republican in this dark blue state rather than contend with an unpredictable general election against fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter.

Schiff's side has aired ads designed to help the leading Republican, former Major League Baseball player Steve Garvey, consolidate right-leaning votes by ostensibly attacking him as a Trump supporter who is "too conservative." A few recent polls show Schiff getting the matchup he wants, though the available data is limited.

While Porter, who has her own national fundraising base, has deployed more money than most of the field, Schiff's side has still vastly outspent her on TV. Porter is trying to avoid defeat by running digital ads designed to help another Republican, Eric Early, peel off conservative votes from Garvey, though her efforts have been on a much smaller scale than Schiff’s. A third House Democrat, Barbara Lee, is also running, but she's struggled to raise money and has not performed well in polls.

All of these candidates are also competing in a simultaneous special election for the remainder of Feinstein's term. Only seven contenders are on Tuesday's primary ballot, though, so it's possible we'll see a different winner in this contest than in the election for a full six-year term.

• CA-12 (89-9 Biden): BART board member Lateefah Simon has the support of the departing incumbent, Senate candidate Barbara Lee, and other prominent Democrats, and there's little question she'll advance to the general election to represent Oakland and Berkley. There's less clarity as to whom Simon's opponent might be, though the only other Democrat who has raised a notable amount of money is Cal State professor Jennifer Tran. The field also includes five other Democrats and two Republicans.

• CA-16 (75-22 Biden): Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo is retiring from a seat based in Silicon Valley, and the race to replace her has become the most expensive House contest in the state.

Eshoo is supporting Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian, who is one of several current or former Democratic elected officials in the running. But two others, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo and Assemblyman Evan Low, are also waging well-funded campaigns. And while Palo Alto City Councilmember Julie Lythcott-Haims has considerably fewer resources, she may stand out as the only woman waging a serious campaign.

But the best-financed Democrat is Marine veteran Peter Dixon, a businessman who co-founded the bipartisan super PAC With Honor. Dixon has taken advantage of his huge donor base and ability to self-fund, and he's received over $1.3 million in outside support from a group connected to With Honor. The field also includes former Saratoga City Councilmember Rishi Kumar, who lost the all-Democratic 2022 general election to Eshoo 58-42, as well as three other Democrats and two Republicans.

• CA-20 (61-36 Trump): Former Rep. Kevin McCarthy resigned from this Central Valley seat in December after losing his speakership, and 11 candidates are on the ballot to replace him for a full two-year term. There's also a special election for the remaining months of McCarthy's term, but the first round of voting for that race won't take place until two weeks later on March 19.

McCarthy and Donald Trump are backing Assemblyman Vince Fong, a former McCarthy district director. Fong, however, decided to run for Congress only after filing for reelection to the legislature, and California Secretary of State Shirley Weber is arguing that he's violating state law by seeking both posts at once. A state judge allowed Fong to proceed in December, but Weber has appealed that decision.

The other two major Republicans are Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux and casino owner Kyle Kirkland, though they each have considerably less money or institutional support than Fong.

Two Democrats, security guard Andy Morales and teacher Marisa Wood, are also running, and at least McCarthy's network seems to believe the latter's presence could be beneficial to Fong. A group called Central Valley Values, which is partially funded by the former speaker's leadership PAC, has spent over $640,000 on messaging to help Fong. That messaging has also included anti-Boudreaux ads and what appears to be an attempt to make sure Wood is Fong's general election foe.

• CA-22 (55-42 Biden): Republican Rep. David Valadao faces a rematch against the Democrat he beat in a tight 2022 battle, former Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas, but the presence of two more candidates is causing problems for both candidates and their national party allies.

Salas' backers fear that state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, a Democrat who represents most of this Central Valley seat but has raised little money, will split the Democratic vote and allow two Republicans to advance to the general election. Republicans, though, are likewise wary of far-right contender Chris Mathys, a wealthy perennial candidate who almost beat Valadao in the 2022 primary. As a result, national Democrats are waging an expensive campaign to boost Salas even as their GOP counterparts have deployed their own seven-figure effort to derail Mathys.

• CA-30 (72-26 Biden): Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff's decision to run for the Senate has set off a packed and unpredictable 15-way race to succeed him in a seat that includes part of Los Angeles as well as the cities of Burbank and Glendale.

The Democratic field features two state lawmakers, state Sen. Anthony Portantino and Assemblywoman Laura Friedman, while Los Angeles Unified School District Board of Education member Nick Melvoin is also waging a well-funded effort. Another notable name belongs to former Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer, who ran an abortive campaign for Los Angeles mayor in 2022 but has the support of that race’s eventual winner, Mayor Karen Bass.

The field also includes Ben Savage, the "Boy Meets World" actor who has been self-financing most of his campaign. West Hollywood Mayor Sepi Shyne and former State Department official Jirair Ratevosian are also campaigning as Democrats, though they haven't brought in anywhere near as much money as their rivals. Ratevosian may also benefit from being a member of the area's large Armenian American community, though local leaders tell Politico they don't have a deep relationship with him. Another five Democrats, as well as two Republicans and an unaffiliated candidate, round out the field.

• CA-31 (64-33 Biden): Rep. Grace Napolitano is retiring from this seat in the eastern San Gabriel Valley, and five fellow Democrats appear to be waging serious bids to replace her.

The most familiar name is former Rep. Gil Cisneros, who was elected to his only term in office in the 2018 blue wave in a competitive district that includes almost none of the voters he now wants to represent. But while Cisneros, who lost reelection in 2020 to Republican Young Kim, may have begun with little name recognition, the onetime $266 million lottery winner's wealth has allowed him to far outspend his rivals. 

Napolitano herself is supporting state Sen. Bob Archuleta, who would be 79 on taking office and would set the record for the oldest freshman representative in American history. That's not the only concern his critics have leveled at him, though: Archuleta, who has long characterized himself as a moderate, is currently being sued by a former staffer for alleged sexual harassment and retaliation, allegations he's denied.

The field also includes two other candidates who are often identified as centrists: state Rep. Susan Rubio, who represents over 70% of this district, and self-funding attorney Greg Hafif, who touts himself as a "moderate Democrat." Rounding out the big names is Mary Ann Lutz, a local community college trustee and former Napolitano staffer. 

Two Republicans, attorney Daniel Martinez and perennial candidate Benito Bernal, are also on the ballot, and their presence could play a role in what happens next. Cisneros has been sending out mailers ostensibly attacking Martinez as "too close to Trump," a tactic Politico says is aimed at making sure Rubio can't advance. Rubio is trying to counter with text messages to elevate Bernal. The rest of the roster consists of one Democrat and a pair of unaffiliated candidates.

• CA-40 (50-48 Biden): Democrats are hoping that they can put up a strong fight against Republican Rep. Young Kim in this eastern Orange County seat, and two hopefuls are vying to take her on.

Retired Orange County Fire Capt. Joe Kerr, a self-described "centrist" who twice unsuccessfully ran for local office, has brought in considerably more money than Allyson Muñiz Damikolas, the president of the Tustin Unified School District Board of Education. Kerr also enjoys the backing of several California House members, including Senate rivals Adam Schiff and Katie Porter. Damikolas, for her part, was in the news in 2022 when conservatives unsuccessfully tried to recall her for allegedly promoting what they called "critical race theory."

• CA-45 (52-46 Biden): Republican Rep. Michelle Steel will likely be a top Democratic target this fall, and four Democrats are campaigning to face her in western Orange County. 

The two contenders who have generated the most attention are attorney Derek Tran and Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza. Tran has raised significantly more money, but Nguyen-Penaloza, who lost a tight 2022 race for the county Board of Supervisors, has the state Democratic Party in her corner. Attorney Cheyenne Hunt, who has a large social media presence, may also have the resources to advance.

• CA-47 (54-43 Biden): Democratic Rep. Katie Porter's Senate bid has opened up a competitive seat based in coastal Orange County and Irvine. Former Orange County GOP Chair Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter 52-48 in 2022, is running again, and he appears on track to easily move forward to the general election. But the battle between the two leading Democrats, state Sen. Dave Min and attorney Joanna Weiss, is more uncertain.

Min, who has the backing of Porter and the state party, remained the front-runner for most of the race even after he was arrested for drunk driving in May. However, the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC has deployed a huge $4.5 million to stop Min, with many of its ads focused on his DUI. EMILY's List, likewise, has dropped over $800,000 to help Weiss, which alone is more than twice as much as all the pro-Min spending combined.

The only recent poll we've seen was a mid-February internal for Baugh that showed him leading with 22%, while Min outpaced Weiss 22-16. The survey also found a second Republican, businessman Max Ukropina, at 9%, while none of the other six candidates on the ballot attracted much support.

• CA-49 (55-43 Biden): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin will be hard for Republicans to beat, but two self-funding Republicans are betting he's not invincible. Those contenders are businessman Matt Gunderson, who came close to winning a Democratic-leaning seat in the state Senate in 2022, and media executive Margarita Wilkinson.

Two more Republicans, businesswoman Sheryl Adams and Marine veteran Kate Monroe, are also campaigning for a constituency located in coastal southern Orange and northern San Diego counties.

Other California races to watch:

Campaign Action

Freedom Caucus member quits House after complaining Congress is ‘so broken’

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Republican Rep. Mark Green, who chairs the House Homeland Security Committee, unexpectedly announced Wednesday that he would retire after just three terms representing Tennessee's 7th District.

Green, a hardliner who rose to national infamy in 2017 after Donald Trump tried to name him secretary of the Army, was eligible under GOP rules to serve two more terms as the top Republican on this powerful panel, which makes his departure all the more surprising. But he explained his decision by emphasizing his dissatisfaction with Congress.

"There's also just the frustration of trying to get something done here," he told Axios. "This place is so broken, and making a difference here is just you know, just it feels like a lot of something for nothing." Green is a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, which has played a central role in fomenting dysfunction on Capitol Hill.

Whoever replaces Green, though, likely won't be much different. His constituency, which includes western Nashville as well as nearby suburbs and further-flung rural areas, backed Donald Trump 56-41, so the winner of the Aug. 1 Republican primary will be the favorite to succeed him. The candidate filing deadline is April 4.

Green, who served as an Army medic in the 2003 mission that led to Saddam Hussein's capture, was elected to the state Senate in 2012 by unseating Democratic incumbent Tim Barnes 53-47 as Mitt Romney was taking his seat 55-44.

Once in office, Green spent his time attacking Muslims and LGBTQ+ people. He declared in 2016, "If you poll the psychiatrists, they're going to tell you transgender is a disease."

And in a speech to tea partiers the following year that soon became infamous, the senator said that he would "not tolerate" teaching the "pillars of Islam" in textbooks. He also specifically told an attendee who raised fears of armed violence from people who "don't belong here, like Muslims in the United States" that he'd asked a "great question."

Green launched a bid for governor in 2017, but he dropped out a few months later, after Trump nominated him to become the Army's top civilian official. However, Green's history of ugly rhetoric was too much for even the Republican-led Senate, and he had to withdraw his nomination.

The episode was anything but a career-ender, though. Green soon entered the race to replace Rep. Marsha Blackburn after she kicked off what would prove to be a successful Senate campaign, and no one ended up opposing him in the primary for her safely red House seat.

After easily winning the general election, the incoming congressman once made the sort of news he'd become known for by advancing a conspiracy theory claiming that the Centers for Disease Control was hiding data on a link between vaccines and autism.

Even before he was sworn in, the new congressman-elect began considering a bid to succeed retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander around that same time, but he ultimately decided to stay put. Green, who exchanged messages with then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows about overturning the 2020 election in the months after Joe Biden won, never had trouble winning reelection.

Campaign Action

Tennessee GOP twists rules into pretzel to protect scandal-plagued incumbent from challengers

Posted on by Jeff Singer

The leadership of the Tennessee Republican Party narrowly voted over the weekend to implement rules that the Tennessee Journal's Erik Schelzig reports could keep several would-be primary foes for freshman Rep. Andy Ogles off the Aug. 1 ballot.

Schelzig adds that these new by-laws had been set take effect in 2026, but the party's executive committee voted 32-29 to start enforcing them this cycle even though some members "conceded they didn’t understand entirely what they were voting on."

Under the new plan, hopefuls who want to compete for any GOP nomination this year must have voted in three of the party's last four primaries, which is similar to requirements that were already in place.

However, anyone who cast a ballot in the Democratic primary during this timeframe would not be allowed to run under the Republican banner even if they participated in the other three GOP contests. Another new rule also prevents any person who's sued the state party from appearing on the primary ballot over the next decade.

Those changes are all unwelcome news for the would-be campaigns of businessman Baxter Lee and music video producer Robby Starbuck, two undeclared candidates who both failed a less-stringent version of this test in 2022 when they tried to run for this same seat.

Lee's problem this time is that he voted in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, a choice he claims he made in order to "help secure the best match-up for President Trump." Starbuck, meanwhile, unsuccessfully sued the party last cycle because he hadn't lived in the state long enough to meet yet another of the party's requirements.

Schelzig says that both Lee and Starbuck had been considering taking on Ogles, who currently has no credible intra-party opposition ahead of the April 4 filing deadline. Ogles has been the subject of unflattering investigative coverage by WTVF's Phil Williams throughout the year.

Williams first reported in February that Ogles appears to have fabricated large portions of his life story, and in November he questioned how the congressman could have self-funded $320,000 in 2022 when he did not report having so much as a savings account on mandatory financial disclosures. The 5th District in Middle Tennessee favored Trump 54-43 under the gerrymander the GOP legislature passed last cycle.

Campaign Action

New York Democrats rally around legislator for House special election, but a primary challenge looms

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Democratic leaders in the Buffalo area voted Thursday to select New York state Sen. Tim Kennedy as their nominee in the as-yet-unscheduled special election to replace Rep. Brian Higgins, a Democrat who has said he'll resign in the first week of February to lead a local cultural center. But while Kennedy is on a glide path to succeed Higgins in the 26th Congressional District, which favored Joe Biden 61-37 in 2020, he's likely to face a familiar name in the June 25 primary for a full term.

Former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, who twice came unexpectedly close to flipping the now-defunct 27th District, announced Tuesday that he'd run for the constituency that Higgins is giving up. McMurray, who has a fraught relationship with local party insiders, acknowledged to the Buffalo News that there was little chance they'd select him as the party's standard-bearer. (There are no primaries in New York special elections.)

However, McMurray also told the paper he plans to keep campaigning through the summer primary. "Do I think it will be a quick thing? No," he said. "I think it’s going to be a fight and a struggle." The former supervisor, though, argued he felt compelled to run because of the danger Donald Trump poses to American democracy. "I think the people in Western New York know, if we have another insurrection, they’re going to want Nate McMurray in the room when it happens," he said.

McMurray also took Kennedy to task for opposing abortion rights earlier in his career. "I was pro-abortion in the middle of the reddest district in New York State," said McMurray, “but I am somehow blasphemous because I want to have open discussions and open debate about the future of the community." Kennedy made news in 2014 when he announced that his positions had "evolved," a shift that NARAL Pro-Choice New York praised as "wonderful."

Both Kennedy and McMurray have experience competing in tough races, though the former has enjoyed considerably more success. Kennedy, a longtime Higgins ally, earned an appointment to the Erie County Legislature in 2004, where he joined a bipartisan coalition that backed Republican County Executive Chris Collins. But Kennedy campaigned from the left in 2010 when he waged a primary challenge to state Sen. William Stachowski, a 28-year incumbent who opposed a bill that would have legalized same-sex marriage.

Kennedy won in a 63-26 landslide, but he faced a difficult general election battle against both Republican Assemblyman Jack Quinn and Stachowski, who continued to run as the nominee of the Independence Party. Kennedy, however, had the support of the Conservative Party, which usually supports Republicans (candidates in New York can accept multiple parties' nominations), and its backing helped him win a tight contest despite that year's GOP wave.

Kennedy wound up turning back Quinn 47-45, with the balance going to Stachowski. The following year, Kennedy voted for a successful bill to legalize same-sex marriage in the Empire State and said wouldn't seek the Conservative Party's nomination to avoid putting it in a "touchy situation."

Kennedy never again had to worry about a competitive general election, but he had to fight to win his primary in 2012 against Erie County Legislature Minority Leader Betty Jean Grant. Grant, whose longtime antipathy toward Kennedy was reciprocal, went after him for his old alliance with Collins, the Republican county leader. The seat, which was redrawn after the 2010 census, also was home to a large Black electorate, which was a factor in the contest between the white incumbent and his Black challenger. After Kennedy won the primary 50.3-49.7―a margin of just 156 votes―Grant soon made it clear she'd seek a rematch.

Their 2014 battle was an expensive and closely watched affair. Grant, who was close to Erie County Democratic Chair Jeremy Zellner, also had the support of the Independent Democratic Conference, a breakaway faction that allowed the Republican minority to remain in control of the state Senate—an ironic state of affairs given her attacks on Kennedy for his cooperation with Collins. Kennedy, though, prevailed 60-40, and he never again faced a serious threat.

McMurray emerged on the national political scene a few years later, when he challenged Collins in 2018. The Republican, who had lost reelection as executive in 2011 to Democrat Mark Poloncarz, had bounced back the following year by unseating future Gov. Kathy Hochul in the 27th Congressional District, and he appeared secure in a seat that had favored Donald Trump 60-35 in 2016.

But Collins' grasp on New York's reddest House seat was threatened after he was accused of insider trading and grew weaker still after he was indicted just months before the 2018 election. McMurray ran a strong campaign against the scandal-tarred congressman, but Collins held on 49.1-48.7 after he ran a xenophobic campaign ad showing footage of the Democrat speaking Korean.

Collins, however, resigned the following year as part of a plea deal with prosecutors, prompting a special election in June of 2020. The GOP selected Chris Jacobs as its nominee, but despite lacking Collins' taint, he beat McMurray by an underwhelming 51-46 margin. Their November rematch, though, ended with a 60-39 victory for Jacobs as Trump was taking his district 57-41. Collins, meanwhile, soon received a pardon from Trump after serving just two months of what was supposed to be a 26-month prison sentence.

McMurray announced in January of 2023 that he'd challenge Poloncarz in that year's primary for county executive, but he dropped out the following month. The former supervisor published a series of tweets charging that "the party machine" had made "a legitimate primary (from someone like me) nearly impossible." He made it clear this week his opposition to local insiders would be a centerpiece of his newest effort.

Just over 10% of the 26th's denizens live within the boundaries of the old 27th, but the district could soon be transformed. New York's highest court recently ordered the state's bipartisan redistricting commission to draw a new congressional map, but several steps remain before a new map can be finalized. However, the special election to replace Higgins will take place under the current district lines, which were used in 2022.

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Will Utah Republicans nominate another Mitt Romney—or another Mike Lee?

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Candidate filing closed Monday in Utah, and the state has a list of contenders here. However, hopefuls have a lot of work to do first to ensure they're even on the June 25 primary ballot.

The Beehive State allows candidates to advance to the primary either by collecting signatures or by taking more than 40% of the vote at a party's convention, though they're allowed to try both methods. None of the candidates we discuss below, however, are pursuing the signatures-only option. Both Democrats and Republicans will hold their respective conventions on April 27.

• UT-Sen: The Republican contest to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Mitt Romney will be the most closely watched affair in the state this year, with 11 candidates competing for the nomination. The early frontrunners appear to be Rep. John Curtis and former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and they're each planning to both gather petitions and take part in the convention. (Candidates must reveal their intentions when they file by checking off one of three boxes.)

But a few other notable Republicans are also in the hunt. Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs was campaigning against Romney from the right before the incumbent decided to retire, though he's struggled to raise money. Meanwhile, conservative activist Carolyn Phippen and attorney Brent Hatch, who is the son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, both launched campaigns following Romney's retirement announcement. All three are competing at the convention, while Hatch is the only one of this trio who is also collecting signatures.

The biggest question looming over the race is whether Republicans nominate a candidate in the mold of Romney or someone more like the state's other senator, the far-right Mike Lee. Curtis, a one-time Democrat who at times has criticized GOP extremists and called for protecting the environment, comes closest in temperament to the outgoing incumbent. Staggs and Phippen, by contrast, would fit in with election deniers like Ted Cruz and Rick Scott. (Phippen herself is a former Lee aide.)

Wilson, who is self-funding much of his campaign, might be somewhere in between. The former speaker oversaw the passage of anti-abortion legislation, but he also helped stop the legislature from formally rebuking Romney in 2020 for his vote to convict Donald Trump during his first impeachment trial. Hatch, who doesn't have a record in public office, is more of a blank slate, though he does serve as treasurer of the hardline Federalist Society.

Democrats haven't held a Senate seat in Utah since Frank Moss left office following his 1976 loss against Hatch, and both parties are focusing their efforts on more competitive states. But Democrats did land a candidate with an unusual background shortly before filing closed when Caroline Gleich, a professional ski mountaineer who summited Mount Everest in 2019, entered the race.

• UT-Gov: Republican Gov. Spencer Cox, who is one of the party's few prominent Trump skeptics still in elected office anywhere in the country, faces notable intra-party opposition on his right from both state Rep. Phil Lyman and former state party chair Carson Jorgensen. All three are taking part in the convention, though only Cox and Lyman are also gathering signatures. Two little-known Republicans have also filed.

The only Democrat in the race is state Rep. Brian King, who finished an eight-year stint as minority leader in early 2023. The last Democrat to win this office was Scott Matheson in 1980.

• UT-02: Republican Rep. Celeste Maloy won a November special election to replace her old boss, former Rep. Chris Stewart, but now she faces two intra-party foes in her first reelection campaign: Green Beret veteran Colby Jenkins and perennial candidate Ty Jensen. As she did in the special, Maloy is depending on party delegates to place her on the ballot, while Jenkins and Jensen are trying both the convention and signature routes. Donald Trump carried this district 57-40 in 2020, while Maloy prevailed 57-34 in last year's general election.

• UT-03: Rep. John Curtis announced he would run for the Senate less than a week before candidate filing closed, but 10 fellow Republicans have stepped forward to replace him. This constituency, which includes Provo, southeastern Salt Lake City, and the rural southeastern part of the state, favored Donald Trump 57-38 in 2020.

All of the Republicans who filed plan to compete at the convention, and the following seven will also gather petitions:

  • Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird

  • Perennial candidate Lucky Bovo

  • Former Senate aide Kathryn Dahlin

  • State Auditor John Dougall

  • Some Dude Clayton Hunsaker

  • Businessman Case Lawrence

  • Former state party chair Stewart Peay

The three who are only going with the convention route are former state Rep. Chris Herrod, state Sen. Mike Kennedy, and Utah Young Republicans chairman Zac Wilson.

Herrod unsuccessfully campaigned against Curtis three times: in the 2017 special election, in 2018, and again in 2022. The former state representative outpaced the congressman, who did not collect signatures in 2022, 55-45 in their most recent convention matchup, which put him close to knocking Curtis out of contention. The congressman, however, went on to prevail 70-30 in the primary.

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