Report: Trump Wants To Oust Mitch McConnell, Republicans Not Cooperating

Former President Trump has reportedly held conversations with allies in the Senate about ousting Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Trump has had simmering tension with McConnell ever since the Kentucky Senator attacked him for challenging the 2020 presidential election results.

The Wall Street Journal first reported on the effort to remove McConnell.

Trump, they write, has “spoken recently with senators and allies about trying to depose Mr. McConnell and whether any Republicans are interested in mounting a challenge.”

RELATED: Mitch McConnell: Get Vaccinated Or Lockdowns Are Coming Back – It’s ‘Not Complicated’

Republicans Not Interested In Joining Trump To Oust Mitch McConnell

The Journal report indicates that Republicans – even those who support the former President – have little stomach for trying to oust Mitch McConnell.

“There is little appetite among Senate Republicans for such a plan, lawmakers and aides said, but the discussions risk driving a wedge deeper between the most influential figure in the Republican Party and its highest-ranking member in elected office,” they write.

Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) said the odds weren’t in Trump’s favor regarding a move to rid the Senate of Mitch McConnell, even if it might be the best thing to do.

“I just don’t realistically see that happening,” Kennedy, a Trump supporter, said, equating the odds to that of teaching a donkey how to fly.

RELATED: Trump Calls Mitch McConnell ‘A Stupid Person’ For… Not Getting Rid Of The Filibuster?

Trump: McConnell Bad For The Republican Party

In an interview earlier this week, Trump suggested that Senate Republicans should fire Mitch McConnell themselves.

“I think Mitch McConnell has proven to be a disaster,” Trump told The Federalist. “He’s not good for the Republican Party as a leader, and I wish I wouldn’t have endorsed him.”

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“The Senate has to make a change at some point,” he added. “I don’t think it’s acceptable having him as a leader.”

This past April, McConnell was reportedly seeking a truce with the former President.

“The leader has no animosity and he’s made it very clear he wants to work with the president to get the majority back,” McConnell’s top deputy said at the time.

McConnell, following the Capitol riot, joined Democrats in calls for impeachment according to a Fox News report at the time, telling associates that the move “will help rid the Republican Party of Trump and his movement.”

Trump ravaged the GOP leader, issuing a statement saying McConnell is “a dour, sullen and unsmiling political hack.”

“The Republican Party can never again be respected or strong with political ‘leaders’ like Sen. Mitch McConnell at its helm,” he added.

poll almost immediately after the Capitol riot from Axios-Ipsos showed Republican voters overwhelmingly “siding with President Trump over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — big time.”

 

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Dem Rep Says Pelosi Entitled To $200 Million Pork Spending Because She Works Harder For America Than Anybody

Representative Steve Cohen argued in favor of Nancy Pelosi’s district getting $200 million for improvements at a national park and golf course because she “does more for America” than anyone.

The $200 million allotment has been earmarked in the House Democrats’ bulky $3.5 trillion budget resolution.

The Presidio is a national historic park that sits on 1,500 acres and can be seen by drivers as they enter San Francisco via the Golden Gate Bridge.

In an interview with the Nob Hill Gazette last week, Pelosi bragged about her presence in the park.

“I’m a regular at the Presidio,” she said. “It’s just so beautiful to walk and see the bridge and then walk back and see the City. That’s probably what I do the most.”

RELATED: Trump Slams Removal Of Robert E. Lee Statue: ‘Our Culture Is Being Destroyed’

GOP Fights Against Pelosi’s $200 Million ‘Giveaway’

Republican lawmakers were not at all pleased with the $200 million in pork being added to the already jaw-dropping reconciliation bill to benefit Pelosi’s district.

Representative Tom Tiffany (R-WI) described the $200 earmark as a payoff to the House Speaker.

“This is a Pelosi payoff,” he said. “This is where somebody puts themselves before their office.”

Representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) accused Pelosi of trying to secure a “giveaway.”

“Just because she is speaker doesn’t mean she gets to bloat this bill,” Boebert argued.

Added Boebert, “This is an obvious giveaway to Speaker Pelosi and the powerful elites in San Francisco that support her, and the U.S. taxpayer gets stuck with the bill.”

Cohen, however, bent the knee faster than Pelosi in a Kente cloth, praising the House Speaker by suggesting she deserves to get “a little bit more.”

RELATED: Biden Responds After Hundreds Of 9/11 Victim Families Tell Him Not To Attend Memorial Events

Steve Cohen: Pelosi Works More Than Anyone

Steve Cohen believes Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is deserving of the ‘giveaway’ because of how hard she works for the American people.

“Speaker Pelosi gets maybe a little bit more, and some of the leaders get a little bit more on some of these bills,” he explained.

“Well, the truth is, they should,” Cohen argued. “If it weren’t for her working 24/7, and she does, to keep this place going, we wouldn’t be going.”

“She does more for America than any other member, I would submit in this Congress, times 10,” Cohen said, slobbering more than when he housed a bucket of fried chicken in the House chamber.

“So I support the proposal.”

House Republicans tried to divert the proposed amount to other causes, among them being recreation opportunities for veterans and Gold Star families, as well as maintenance on 9/11 memorials.

It was to no avail, however, as each proposal was defeated by the Democrats.

Perhaps Cohen is supporting Pelosi’s $200 million for renovations at the Presidio after she finally kowtowed to his Trump impeachment whims.

Aside from eating fried chicken in the House as a means to mock then-Attorney General William Barr, Cohen has had his share of other memorable career lowlights.

In 2018, he offended veterans everywhere by suggesting disgraced FBI agent Peter Strzok deserved to be awarded a Purple Heart for testifying before Congress.

Years ago, he bizarrely alleged NFL legends Eli and Peyton Manning sexually assault their wives.

“Eli and Peyton don’t do sexual assaults against people other than their wives,” he said for reasons known only to Cohen.

Two years ago, he suggested Bill Clinton shouldn’t have been impeached “over sex” (he wasn’t) but former President Trump should have been for “raping the country.”

 

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Report: Trump Ready To Endorse Liz Cheney Primary Challenger

According to multiple news outlets, former President Donald Trump is ready to endorse a primary challenger against Rep. Liz Cheney, who has been outspoken against Trump and critical of her party for embracing him. 

According to both Politico and the Associated Press, Trump will endorse attorney Harriet Hageman in her announced primary against Cheney, anonymous sources say.

Hageman has an interesting history as both an ally of Cheney and as part of anti-Trump forces that tried to stop him from getting the Republican nomination in 2016.

Trump Set To Endorse Harriet Hageman

Politico reported on Wednesday, “Donald Trump is set to back Wyoming attorney Harriet Hageman as she prepares a primary challenge against GOP Rep. Liz Cheney, according to three people with knowledge of his plans, marking the most important political endorsement yet in Trump’s post-presidency.”

“Trump’s looming involvement in the primary will test his political power in the GOP like never before, as he seeks to punish the most high-profile House Republican to vote for his impeachment in January,” Politico observed.

RELATED: State Department Troubled There’s No Women In New Taliban-Led Afghan Government

The Associated Press also reported, “Trump is planning to endorse Wyoming attorney Harriet Hageman, who is preparing to launch a primary campaign against Cheney, the most prominent member of Congress to vote for Trump’s second impeachment, according to a person familiar with his decision,”

“The person spoke on condition of anonymity ahead of a formal announcement,” AP noted.

Hageman A Former Supporter Of Cheney

Though Hageman now challenges Cheney, she is a former ally of Cheney. In fact, she worked for Cheney.

The Washington Examiner reported on Thursday, “Wyoming attorney Harriet Hageman announced a challenge to Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, for whom Hageman was formerly a campaign adviser, joining a crowded field of Cheney challengers for Wyoming’s at-large congressional seat.”

“She worked as a campaign adviser to Cheney for her short-lived 2014 Wyoming Senate bid and the 2016 House campaign of former Vice President Dick Cheney’s daughter,” the news outlet added.

Further, Hageman was part of the group of ‘Never Trump’ Republicans who sought to change the rules at the Republican National Convention to deny Trump the nomination in 2016.

Politico reported in July of 2016 that Hageman was present at meetings about the effort, which was led by former Republican Attorney General in Virginia, Ken Cuccinelli: “Cuccinelli also met Friday with a cadre of delegates who intend to back his effort to force rule changes. They included Virginia’s Morton Blackwell and Anne Gentry, Louisiana’s Gwen Bowen, Wyoming’s Harriet Hageman, Minnesota’s Cindy Pugh, Oklahoma’s Megan Winburn and Oregon’s Solomon Yue, according to two sources familiar with the meeting.”

Yet Hageman claims to believe Cheney is no longer able to adequately represent her state due to the congresswoman’s personal battle with the former president.

Hageman said in a statement Thursday, “The people of Wyoming deserve leaders who reflect their views and values, but Liz Cheney betrayed us because of her personal war with President Trump, who won Wyoming by massive majorities twice.” 

Trump Flexing Political Muscle

It has long been known that Trump planned to endorse a challenger to Cheney, but also that he wanted Republicans to have only one primary challenger and not a crowded field.

This endorsement would likely increase Hageman’s chances of emerging victorious from the field of at least 8 candidates currently looking to take on Cheney for the Republican nomination for Wyoming’s at-large Congressional District.

Trump reportedly met with Hageman last month.

The former president appears keen on flexing his political muscle in the midterms by punishing those in his own party who opposed him over the January 6 Capitol attack.

AP reported, “Trump has already endorsed a number of Republicans challenging GOP incumbents including Kelly Tshibaka, who is running against Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska; Michigan State Rep. Steve Carra, who is trying to unseat longtime Rep. Fred Upton; former White House aide Max Miller, who is running against Rep. Anthony Gonzalez in Ohio; and Joe Kent, who is challenging Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in Washington.

“All voted in favor of impeaching Trump for his role in inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol building,” the news outlet noted.

RELATED: Biden Responds After Hundreds Of 9/11 Victim Families Tell Him Not To Attend Memorial Events

Trump In July: ‘Loser RINO Liz Cheney’

In July, the Washington Examiner reported on an email sent to them by Trump.

“Paying close attention to the Wyoming House Primary against loser RINO Liz Cheney,” Trump told the Examiner.

“Some highly respected pollsters tell me she’s toast in Wyoming after siding with Crazy Nancy Pelosi and supporting the Democrat Impeachment Hoax,” he wrote.

“And that’s just the beginning!” Trump said, meaning challenging Cheney. “This is a ‘hot’ race with some very interesting candidates running against her.”

“Remember though, in the end we just want ONE CANDIDATE running against Cheney,” Trump emphasized at the time.

It is unclear why Trump would want to endorse someone who tried to stop him from becoming President.

 

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Disarmed: White House To Withdraw Anti-Gun David Chipman’s Nomination For ATF Director

The White House is withdrawing the nomination of President Biden’s choice for Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), David Chipman.

Chipman, who express pro-gun control views, was having trouble securing support from several key Democrats in the Senate, will reportedly be given a different role in the administration.

“We do not have the votes,” a senior administration official said, according to CNN. “We will land him in a non-confirmed job in the administration.” 

The Political Insider reported this past July that Chipman didn’t have commitments from some moderate Democrats such as Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT), Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), and Independent Angus King (ME).

The report openly wondered if this lack of support from Democrats could ultimately lead to Chipman’s nomination being withdrawn.

RELATED: Could Senate Democrats Sink Biden’s Anti-Gun Nominee For ATF Director?

ATF Director Nomination Sunk

President Biden’s selection of David Chipman had been vociferously opposed by Republicans and pro-Second Amendment lawmakers based on past radical comments.

Chipman’s radical views were on full display during a Senate appearance in May where he struggled to define an ‘assault weapon’ and said he supports a ban on semi-automatic rifles like AR-15s.

“With respect to the AR-15, I support a ban as has been presented in a senate bill and supported by the president,” he told Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) at the time.

Chipman has also argued in favor of a “well-regulated” Second Amendment in contesting sanctuary for gun owners.

“The Second Amendment envisions firearms as being ‘well regulated,’ and individual sheriffs aren’t entitled to decide whether a particular regulation is constitutional—that’s the job of the courts,” he wrote.

Chipman even compared some gun owners to the ‘Tiger King.’

RELATED: Republicans Had Info On Racism Charges Against Biden’s ATF Nominee Two Months Ago – And Sat On It

David Chipman’s Alleged Racial Comments

David Chipman’s nomination may have been sunk based on recently surfaced racially-charged comments.

A report last month corroborated that Biden’s nominee made controversial comments about black ATF agents who were up for promotion.

“He made some comments that he was surprised by the number of African Americans who have made it onto a specific promotional list,” a current ATF official told The Reload.

“So, his insinuation was that they had to have cheated,” the official added. “Which is kind of despicable.”

Multiple complaints were lodged against Chipman according to the report.

Additionally, Chipman reportedly made an appearance on Chinese State TV in 2012 and failed to disclose the appearance.

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Fox News reported that Biden’s nominee’s appearance “may have been used as propaganda by the communist state to cover up a mass stabbing of children.”

Republican senators almost fumbled the opportunity to sink Chipman’s nomination, purportedly keeping information regarding the racism charges under wraps for months.

House Republicans pushed a resolution to impeach Biden’s ATF nominee despite his not being confirmed.

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) previously announced legislation that would abolish the ATF altogether in part due to Chipman’s nomination.

Greene argued that Biden nominating him was “a clear indication that the ATF’s war on gun owners is about to crank up.”

 

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Monica Lewinsky: Bill Clinton Should ‘Want To Apologize’ For His Role In Affair

Monica Lewinsky, the political world’s most famous intern, said former President Bill Clinton “should want to apologize” for his role in their legendary affair, but indicated she’s moved on regardless.

Lewinsky and the scandal that rocked the political world in the 1990s will be the subject of a dramatization of those events for FX, called “American Crime Story: Impeachment.”

“Do you ever wish that you could speak to him?” asked ‘Today’ show host Savannah Guthrie. “Do you feel like he owes you an apology after all these years?”

Lewinsky, there to promote the new crime series, explained that she no longer has a need for “resolution,” something she’s “very grateful” for.

“I don’t need it,” she replied. “He should want to apologize, um, in the same way that I want to apologize any chance I get to people that I’ve hurt and my actions have hurt.”

RELATED: Monica Lewinsky Nails It With ‘I Have A Joke’ Clinton Reference

Lewinsky Discusses Upcoming TV Show

Monica Lewinsky, in discussing the ‘crime story’ project she is both a producer for and subject of, said the public will see some details of behavior she regrets and finds “cringeworthy.”

“I’ve really worn two hats in this project, as a producer, I’m very proud of the project. But as a subject, I’m nervous,” she explained to Guthrie.

“I’m nervous for people to see some of the worst moments of my life and a lot of behavior that I regret. If you remember your 20s, not that long ago, it’s pretty cringeworthy.”

If you’re too young to remember, Lewinsky had a politically earth-shattering affair with former President Clinton in the ’90s, a relationship which would lead to his impeachment for perjury and obstruction of justice.

The affair between Clinton and Lewinsky was widely seen as an abuse of power on the part of the then-President, due to their career positions and age difference.

Clinton was 49 at the time, Lewinsky just 22.

RELATED: USA Today Issues Correction For ‘Fact-Check’ Of Biden Looking At His Watch During Service For Fallen Service Members

Clinton: I Don’t Owe Her An Apology

Former President Bill Clinton has said he doesn’t owe Monica Lewsinky a personal apology over their affair because he has made his feelings clear through public statements.

On the same ‘Today’ show back in 2018, as the #MeToo movement was heating up, Clinton was asked if he owed her a direct apology for his actions.

“No, I do — I do not,” Clinton responded. “I’ve never talked to her. But I did say, publicly, on more than one occasion, that I was sorry. That’s very different. The apology was public.”

In an interview with CBS’s “Sunday Morning” a few months later, Clinton’s wife, Hillary, was asked if he should have stepped down amidst the scandal.

“Absolutely not,” she replied.

“It wasn’t an abuse of power?” a reporter asked, to which she replied: “No. No.”

The former President was also accused of multiple infidelities, sexual assaults, and even rape by Juanita Broaddrick, a former nursing home owner.

The series highlighting Monica Lewinsky and Clinton’s affair is set to premier Tuesday on FX.

 

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Republican Afghanistan Veteran: Biden’s Actions Meet ‘Constitutional Definition Of Treason’

On Sunday, Republican Congressman Brian Mast, who fought in Afghanistan and now serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that President Joe Biden’s actions involving that country amount to “treason” and he should be removed from office.

Mast made his comments during an interview on Fox News.

RELATED: USA Today Issues Correction For ‘Fact-Check’ Of Biden Looking At His Watch During Service For Fallen Service Members

Mast: ‘Impeachment Is Absolutely Something That Should Be Considered’

Mast’s reasoning includes how quickly the Taliban retook Afghanistan, Biden being more worried about optics than national security, and also the controversial July phone call in which Biden reportedly encouraged Afghanistan’s president to change the perception of what was happening.

The president reportedly told the Afghan leader he didn’t care if the narrative he came up with was true or not.  

Reuters reported that Biden said, “I need not tell you the perception around the world and in parts of Afghanistan, I believe, is that things are not going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban. And there is a need, whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.”

Mast believes some and perhaps all of these are impeachable offenses.

“Impeachment is absolutely something that should be considered,” Mast told Fox News. “I would say no less than 10,000 counts of reckless endangerment, all of the American lives over there that’s the minimum, which is actually a real crime.”

Mast continued, “Beyond that, as I’ve said already, I think we absolutely need to look at what is the truth about this phone call with the former Afghan president.”

“We know for a fact that the Taliban is the sworn enemy of the United States of America,” Mast added. “We are still in the midst of the war on terror, and as I said, I would absolutely consider the manipulation of intelligence, giving aid and comfort to the enemy, all three of those things are part of what meets the constitutional definition of treason.”

Mast then focused specifically on Biden and what kind of leader Mast thinks he is.

“You look at President Biden, and I would say these two things about him,” Mast said. “He is hollow. His decisions are empty. They are void of wisdom in their entirety and across the board, we see a naïveté to the aggressors he’s dealing with.”

RELATED: Afghanistan Shows Biden To Be A Weak And Failed President

Mast: Biden’s Statements Are ‘Schizophrenic’

The Republican congressman continued, “Maybe there is an element of dementia there that we might hear about in years to come. But I would say at a minimum, this man appears to be schizophrenic with the statements that he’s making in front of one camera and the way that they’re directly changing in front of a camera on a different day or the day after that or what his members of his cabinet are saying.”

“There’s definitely got to be schizophrenia there,” Mast finished.

Watch Mast’s interview on Fox News: 

 

 

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Restaurant Owner Says She Doesn’t Want To Serve Biden Supporters

One restaurant owner in Florida says she is through with serving anyone who supports President Joe Biden.

On the front door of The DeBary Diner in DeBary, Florida is a sign that reads, “If you voted for and continue to support and stand behind the worthless, inept and corrupt administration currently inhabiting the White House that is complicit in the death of our servicemen and women in Afghanistan, please take your business elsewhere.” 

RELATED: MAGA Rep. Boebert Calls For Biden And Harris Impeachment, Pelosi To Be Removed Over Afghanistan Withdrawal

Restaurant Owner Furious About Biden’s Afghanistan Disaster

The restaurant’s owner, Angie Ugarte, said, “It was the only thing I felt like I could do.”

The sign went up on the same day a suicide bomber took the lives of 13 U.S. service members in Afghanistan. 

“I was just angry. I was just let down,” Ugarte said. “I felt like one of those mothers, or wives, or sisters who were gonna get that knock on the door.”

Ugarte says that a lot of her regular customers are veterans and she has been serving them since her restaurant’s doors opened almost five years ago. One wall of her business is dedicated to honoring men and women who serve.

Ugarte blames Biden for the recent deaths in Afghanistan.

“If you really, really still stand behind what’s allowed this to happen and the way it happened – which was unnecessary then I really don’t want to be associated with you in any way and I certainly don’t want your business,” Ugarte said.

RELATED: Republican Introduces Bill To Award Congressional Gold Medal To 13 Servicemen Killed In Terror Attack

Mixed Reactions From Customers

Ugarte talked about some of the customer reactions.

“I’ve had people come to the door and look at it and turn around and walk away,” she said. “And I’ve had people come into the kitchen while I’m cooking and say, ‘Hey, I love your sign.”

How long will the sign remain?

Ugarte says until the ordeal in Afghanistan is over for the U.S., noting that Americans are still stranded in the country.

 

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Biden’s Job Approval Has Entered Dangerous Territory

By Sean Trende for RealClearPolitics

In 1880, Americans did something momentous: They all elected their congressional delegations in the same year. Prior to that, elections had been a hodgepodge affair.

For example, the first elections for the 28th Congress, which ostensibly met from 1843 to 1845, were held in Missouri on Aug. 1, 1842. But only five other states held elections that year; almost all other states held them over the course of the odd numbered year of 1843.

Maryland finally got around to holding its elections on Feb. 14, 1844, a half-year before the presidential election and less than a year before the next Congress convened.

RELATED: Poll: 52 Percent Think Biden Should Resign Over Afghanistan, Majority Say Kamala Harris Not Qualified

Even after 1880, a truly uniform Election Day did not arrive until 1960, when Maine gave up its stubborn insistence on holding its congressional elections in September. But for all intents and purposes, 1882 marks the birth of the phenomenon we know today as the midterm election year.

It also birthed one of the rare observations in politics about which political scientists and “lay” observers of elections are in near-unanimous agreement: Midterm elections tend to go badly for the party that holds the White House.

James Garfield barely won the presidency in the 1880 election – he carried the Electoral College by 60 votes and the popular vote by less than 2,000 votes. Two years later, Republicans lost 34 seats in the House (there were only 325 representatives at the time, so this is the equivalent of over 40 seats in today’s House).

The president’s party has lost seats in almost every ensuing presidential election. There have been four exceptions: 1902, 1934, 1998 and 2002. The 1902 midterm probably does not deserve to be counted in this category, however, as the size of the House had been enlarged after the decennial redistricting.  

On average, the party in power has lost around 30 seats in midterm elections, but this statistic includes years like 1894, when the Democrats lost 125 seats, nearly half their caucus. In the postwar era, elections have been quieter, with the president’s party losing around 25 seats.

In the Senate, it is a somewhat different story. Because the chamber’s seats are staggered, with only a third of them up in any given year, a party may go into a predictably rough election with very few vulnerable seats up for election.

On average, the president’s party still loses seats – around four – but since direct election of senators began nationally in 1914, the president’s party has gained seats or broken even in eight elections – around one in three.

The most important predictor of a party’s performance in a midterm is the president’s job approval rating. So, for example, the years where the president’s party has gained ground in the House during a midterm election have been years where the president has been exceptionally popular.

The 1998 midterms occurred against the backdrop of a massive economic boom and an unpopular impeachment attempt from Republicans, while the 2002 midterms occurred while George W. Bush was still enjoying his post-9/11 bounce. Both presidents enjoyed approval ratings in the mid-60s on Election Day.  

While we don’t have polling data for FDR in 1934, one can imagine that his job approval was likely well into the 70s. One the other hand, abysmal elections for parties in power have occurred when the president was generally unpopular: Witness 1994, 2010, and 2018.

RELATED: Mitch McConnell Won’t Fight To Impeach Biden – Says He ‘Is Not Going To Be Removed From Office’

Thus, the trend in President Biden’s job approval has to be concerning for Democrats:

Let’s look at the implications of this, first through the lens of Senate elections, then through the lens of House elections. I’ve explored Senate elections in this article. As the chart near the bottom indicates, when Biden was hovering around 52% job approval, Democrats were heavily favored to maintain control of the Senate.

The most likely outcome for the party was that it would actually gain a seat.

But Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate were slated to drop off quickly if the president’s job approval fell any further. At 50%, they would be expected to break even, but would lose control about one time out of four. At 49% job approval, the Senate is considered 50-50.

At 46%? Democrats would lose between four and zero seats 95% of the time, with an expected outcome of two seats. They only retain control about 4% of the time. This is obviously an outcome Democrats would like to avoid.

What about the House? Modeling aggregate House elections is a treacherous task, as there is just too much froth at the individual House level. Nevertheless, we can draw some broad generalizations from previous elections, using factors that I’ve referenced previously.

RELATED: New Poll Shows Majority Believe U.S. Has ‘Seriously Gone Off On The Wrong Track’ – And Wow, Ya Think?!

The first data-relevant piece of datum is the president’s party’s degree of exposure. That is to say: Midterm elections tend to be regressions to mean. When a president’s party performs well above the average from prior elections in the presidential election, the tendency is for their midterm losses to be more severe.

This is because large House gains often require overextension into opposition party areas.

When Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, more than 40 Democratic House candidates prevailed in districts that John McCain won, even as McCain was losing the national popular vote by seven percentage points. It isn’t surprising, then, that Democrats suffered a shellacking two years later.

In the same vein, in 1998 Republicans were still defending a lot of marginal districts from their 1994 wave. Democrats went into that election with minimal exposure, which helped secure their wins.

Democrats begin this cycle with a relatively low degree of exposure, consistent with a loss of 18 seats or so. But if anything, this overstates their problem. Very few Democrats represent Trump districts, and only 20 or so represent districts that were more Republican than the country as a whole.

At the same time, we don’t know what the effect of redistricting will be. (Click the chart to enlarge the image.)

A Republican Party as overstretched as the Democrats are today suffered massive losses in 1974 and achieved modest gains in 2002. Another factor we look at is the growth of the economy. I have traditionally used real disposable income as a stand-in.

RELATED: MAGA Rep. Boebert Calls For Biden And Harris Impeachment, Pelosi To Be Removed Over Afghanistan Withdrawal

As we can see, growth in personal income is correlated with parties performing better in midterms. Years with soft or negative income growth, like 1974, 1982, 1994 and 2010, tend to go badly for the party in power. Years with strong growth, like 1998 and 1978, tend to be non-events, or even net positives for the president’s party.

 
We don’t know what real disposable income will look like in 2022, especially because of the various coronavirus relief acts from 2020 and early this year. But for now, let’s assume growth is strong. This would also suggest modest Democratic losses, perhaps on the order of 6% of the caucus (or roughly 13 seats).

One other factor, though, is very important: the president’s job approval. Even in years with strong economic growth, like 1966, if the public is unhappy with the handling of a non-economic issue, his party will suffer. This is probably the strongest predictor we have seen:

The cases that fall off the line can largely be explained in terms of other issues we’ve witnessed: Democrats overperformed in 1978 because of the economy, and in 2014 because they had very little exposure. In 2010 and 1974 they underperformed because of the economy and, in the case of 2010, overexposure.

What we see from this is that the decline in President Bidens’ job approval from around 52% to 46% is consistent with a loss of an additional 5% of the Democrats’ caucus, or an additional 11 seats. If we put them altogether into a single regression analysis, we explain about two-thirds of the overall variation.

This isn’t so bad, given the amount of randomness we have to explain here. The model suggests overall that the decline in Biden’s job approval will probably cost Democrats about eight seats.

Some of this is likely blowback to the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, which may recede over the coming months. It may also be the case that there is some reluctance on the part of Democrats to respond to surveys right now, which artificially deflates his job approval.

Regardless, the decline in Biden’s job approval is consequential. Right now, he is probably sitting just below the “Mendoza line” that would represent a “normal” midterm, with perhaps no Senate losses and low double-digit House losses.

If the president rebounds, Democrats will have a successful 2022, even if they narrowly lose the House. If he declines much further, however, it could turn into an ugly rout.

Syndicated with permission from RealClearWire.

Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and author of The Lost Majority. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter @SeanTrende.

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Poll: 52 Percent Think Biden Should Resign Over Afghanistan, Majority Say Kamala Harris Not Qualified

A new poll delivers shockingly bad numbers for President Biden as a clear majority of voters believe the Commander-in-Chief should resign over his disastrous handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

Rasmussen Reports conducted a survey published on Wednesday that indicates 52 percent of voters believe he must step down.

The polling outfit asked if Biden should resign because of the way the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was handled.

Just 39 percent disagreed with the idea.

“The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was so badly handled that President Joe Biden should resign because of it, according to a majority of voters,” Rasmussen writes.

RELATED: McConnell Says Biden ‘Is Not Going To Be Removed From Office’

Biden Should Resign – But It Gets Worse

While a clear majority of Americans believe President Biden needs to resign over the debacle in Afghanistan, an even greater number think he should be impeached.

Rasmussen presented respondents with a quote from Senator Lindsey Graham and asked if they agree with the notion.

Graham (R-SC), in an interview with Newsmax last week, said he believes Biden “deserves” to be impeached.

“I think Joe Biden deserves to be impeached because he’s abandoned thousands of Afghans who fought with us and he’s going to abandon some American citizens because he capitulated to the Taliban to a 31 August deadline,” said Graham.

A significant number of people – 60 percent – agree with that statement, according to the new poll. Only 37 percent disagree with the notion that Biden should be impeached.

Another question presented to voters demonstrates the absolute dire straits America finds itself currently in when it comes to leadership.

RELATED: Marjorie Taylor Greene And Lindsey Graham Call For Biden To Be Impeached Over Afghanistan

Kamala Harris Not Qualified

The Rasmussen poll, knowing what comes next should President Biden be impeached or decides to resign, asked voters what they thought of Vice President Kamala Harris’ qualifications.

The response doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

A good chunk – 58 percent – don’t believe Harris is qualified to be President, with a good 47 percent of that group saying she is “not at all qualified.”

Just 38 percent believe she is qualified to lead the nation.

President Biden’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal culminated in a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of 13 U.S. service members and roughly 200 Afghans, and left an untold number of Americans behind enemy lines.

Despite the bad polling numbers and the express wishes of the American people, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell dismissed the sentiment that President Biden would resign or be impeached.

“Well, look, the president is not going to be removed from office,” McConnell predicted. “There’s a Democratic House, a narrowly Democratic Senate. That’s not going to happen.”

POLL: Do you think Biden should resign for his failure in Afghanistan?

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Pro-Trump Representative Lauren Boebert has called for the impeachment of Biden as well as Harris over the chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

“The blame starts at the top with Biden and his hand-picked Vice President who bragged that she was right there making the same bad decisions,” Boebert said.

“It is time for action. Impeach Biden. Impeach Kamala Harris.”

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) introduced three impeachment resolutions against Biden, one focusing on his dereliction of duty in Afghanistan.

 

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Mitch McConnell Won’t Fight To Impeach Biden – Says He ‘Is Not Going To Be Removed From Office’

On Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that he and his party would not fight to impeach President Joe Biden and said Republicans should focus more on the midterm election.

McConnell argued that it’s better to wait and vote – and that impeachment won’t happen because Democrats are in charge.

“Well, look, the president is not going to be removed from office,” McConnell said at a Kentucky event. “There’s a Democratic House, a narrowly Democratic Senate. That’s not going to happen.”

Democrats hold a razor thin majority in both houses of Congress.

RELATED: Republican Introduces Bill To Award Congressional Gold Medal To 13 Servicemen Killed In Terror Attack

McConnell: ‘There Isn’t Going To Be An Impeachment’

When McConnell was asked if Biden’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal warranted an impeachment, McConnell sternly answered, “There isn’t going to be an impeachment.”

Republicans in both the House and Senate have called for the president’s resignation over the Afghanistan debacle, or have called for forcible removal via the 25th Amendment for what they view as Biden’s dereliction of duty as Commander-in-Chief.

McConnell urged Republicans to focus on the upcoming midterm elections where high public disapproval of Biden could work to Republicans’ advantage.

McConnell said voters in the upcoming election could hold Biden and his party accountable. 

“The report card you get is every two years,” McConnell said. “I think the way these behaviors get adjusted in this country is at the ballot box.”

RELATED: New Poll Shows Majority Believe U.S. Has ‘Seriously Gone Off On The Wrong Track’ – And Wow, Ya Think?!

McConnell Won’t Fight

“I do think we’re likely to see a typical kind of midterm reaction to a new administration. … Typically there is some buyer’s remorse,” he said. 

“Most of you are not political junkies, you’ve got better things to do than that,” McConnell continued. “But you’ll be interested in one statistic: only twice in American history – only twice – has the president gained seats in Congress two years into the first term.”

“I think the American people have to decide what kind of government they want,” McConnell added. “I have a feeling the American people didn’t think they voted for this government.”

 

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