Jasmine Crockett’s big decision

Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett has given herself a deadline: By Thanksgiving, she’ll decide whether to seek another term representing Dallas in the 30th Congressional District—or jump into the U.S. Senate race.

Over the weekend, she made the stakes plain. In an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Crockett said her internal polling suggests she’d be a real threat to either of the likely Republican nominees, Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton.

“I am still thinking about running. We did get our polling back, so we are moving on to the next phase to determine whether or not this would make sense in the moment,” Crockett said, adding that Republicans are mired in a “civil war” over who should carry their banner next year.

She reiterated that point to CBS News Texas, insisting no decision has been made—yet promising clarity before Thursday. 

“Everyone thinks that I’m just holding a secret in, but our poll is in the field right now,” she said. “We are supposed to get that polling back by the end of the week or early next week. I said I would decide by Thanksgiving.”

Pressed by Tapper to reveal what the numbers look like, Crockett leaned in.

“Head-to-head, we are doing really well against Paxton,” she said. “I will also tell you we’re within the margin of error as it relates to John Cornyn. The only reason I’m continuing to consider whether or not I do this is because my polling says I can win.”

Former Rep. Collin Allred

She also plans to share that polling with her other potential Democratic rivals, State Rep. James Talarico and former Rep. Colin Allred.

“This isn’t about me,” she told CBS. “If the numbers are strong, that I am our best shot, then it’s bigger than my district. It’s bigger than the state of Texas. This is about the country because we know if we can change the Senate map in this country, then that’s where we start to get wins.”

If she enters the race, she’d instantly reorder the Democratic primary. Allred—who entered the bid in July—and Talarico—who joined in September—are already jockeying for the nomination, but neither matches Crockett’s profile or national following.

Recent polling underscores that. A University of Houston-Texas Southern University survey put her atop the Democratic field at 31%. Talarico and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke followed at 25%, with Allred at 13%. And in a matchup limited to announced candidates, Allred led Talarico 46%–42%.

O’Rourke has indicated he’s unlikely to run again, though he gave Crockett a nod at the November Texas Tribune Festival. “You know you’re doing the right thing when Donald Trump is shit talking you on a daily basis, right?” he said.

Crockett’s national prominence has translated into sizable fundraising—she’s sitting on more than $4.6 million, according to The Dallas Morning News. A Senate bid, however, would open her deep-blue Dallas House seat and spark a fierce local race.

Redistricting looms over all of it. Texas Republicans pushed a mid-decade congressional map designed to net them up to five new seats. A federal panel blocked it as a racial gerrymander, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold Friday, allowing the map to remain—for now.

Even if Crockett runs, Democrats face brutal statewide math. The GOP typically holds a built-in advantage of 750,000 to more than 1 million voters. Past Democratic strategies—maximizing base turnout, courting new voters, or appealing to suburban moderates—have rarely cracked that wall.

Critics on the left argue that Crockett could squander a safe seat for a statewide campaign they see as unwinnable, especially in a state with so many independents and Republicans. Crockett, however, says she’s testing whether she can broaden the electorate. 

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton

“I believe that I can, but if I can’t, I can tell you for sure, 100% that I will not run,” she told CNN.

Democrats, including Crockett, are banking on Paxton emerging from the GOP primary. Beloved by conservative activists and buoyed by his 2023 impeachment acquittal, he’s still viewed by some Republicans as a risky general-election nominee.

The Republican race has its own turbulence. GOP leaders in Washington have been urging Rep. Wesley Hunt to step aside, warning his bid could drain resources and force a costly runoff. Hunt isn’t budging.

“If Senate leadership does not like me being in this race, you know what I say? Good,” he told CNN. “Senate leadership does not pick the leadership in Texas.” 

The contest has only grown more hostile, with Hunt and Cornyn trading shots while Paxton mostly watches. Paxton has spent just $1 million through Sept. 30—well behind Cornyn’s $3.5 million and Hunt’s $2.3 million.

President Donald Trump hasn’t endorsed anyone. Hunt says even if Trump backs someone else, he’s staying put.

“Trump’s endorsement is absolutely incredible in any Republican primary in this great nation, but I’m sorry you cannot revive that dead campaign,” Hunt said of Cornyn. 

For Democrats to retake the Senate, they must defend every seat they hold and flip four—including at least two in red states. Texas is their longest shot and their biggest swing.

And Crockett, for now, is the person who could blow the race wide open. The question is whether she jumps. All eyes are on Thursday.

The worst attorney general in America strikes again

Injustice for All is a weekly series about how the Trump administration is trying to weaponize the justice system—and the people who are fighting back.

Welcome to another week of the justice system being, well, not great! At least this week, we can mix things up a bit. 

Of course, there’s no way a week could go by without more news about interim U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan. But we’ve also got a couple trips to state courts this time around, with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton continuing to be racist and awful, and Washington state dropping some really dystopian surveillance-state stuff on us all. 

Your weekly Lindsey Halligan update: Not great for Lindsey

Lindsey Halligan—everyone’s favorite insurance lawyer turned defense attorney for President Donald Trump turned Smithsonian Institution anti-woke scold turned interim United States attorney turned surprise texting pal—is extremely busy fending off so, so many motions. That’s the fallout when you agree to be the vessel for Trump’s retribution efforts. But what if Halligan had even more to worry about?

Enter the request from watchdog group Campaign for Accountability that both the Florida and Virginia state bars investigate Halligan for, well, everything. 

Fam, is it good when the bar complaint about your behavior runs 17 pages? And has, like, multiple subheadings? We’ve got the so-called investigations of both former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James. We’ve got the Comey and James grand jury proceedings and indictments. Do we have the unsolicited texts to Lawfare’s Anna Bower? Hell yeah we do. 

Interim U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan, shown in August.

The complaint alleges that Halligan likely violated an ethics rule about making false statements of fact or law to a tribunal, given that it looks like she just might have had a wee bit of trouble telling the truth to the grand juries in both her big cases. That weird unsolicited text exchange with Bower? Well, that one might violate the rule against lawyers making extrajudicial statements that could interfere with the fairness of a jury trial.

There’s an ethics rule specific to prosecutors that bars them from filing a case if they know it lacks probable cause. To be fair, it might not be that Halligan willingly violated that rule. After all, it could be that she has no idea what probable cause actually requires. 

That brings us to the allegation that’s got to sting the most here: that Halligan may have violated the rule requiring a lawyer to provide competent representation and to have "the legal knowledge, skill, thoroughness and preparation reasonably necessary for the representation.” 

Man, it has to feel rough when a bar complaint about you runs down your paper-thin resume as evidence that you are so out of your depth that perhaps a state bar should sanction you. 

Ken Paxton continues to be the worst

When Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is not abusing the power of his office by suing the makers of Tylenol, he is abusing the power of his office by trying to shut down a nonprofit that works to increase civic participation and voting by Latinos. 

And now the group is fighting back. Jolt Initiative sued Paxton to try to stop him from revoking their nonprofit charter. 

Paxton’s efforts are a transparent effort to suppress the Latino vote by deliberately conflating voter registration drives with illegally registering noncitizens to vote. Now, Paxton’s filing against Jolt didn’t actually allege that they registered noncitizens to vote. No, it’s that holding voter registration drives near DMV locations “illuminates its unlawful motive.” 

Huh? Well, since citizens can register to vote at the DMV, having voter drives near the DMV, of course, means you are trying to register noncitizens. No, really, that’s Paxton’s argument. 

Paxton’s stretching here because let’s face it, the only way he and his pals will continue to hold power in Texas is by suppressing the vote. 

President Donald Trump, shown on Nov. 9.

Only the best people

In 2020, during his first term, Trump tapped Joshua Kindred for a lifetime seat on the U.S. District Court for the District of Alaska. Kindred’s lifetime seat turned out to be pretty short, though, as he quit after an investigation alleged that he had an “inappropriately sexualized relationship” with a law clerk, created a hostile work environment for clerks that featured abusive sexual conduct and sexual harassment, sent vulgar texts about his sex life, and then lied about everything to the chief judge. 

Last year, the U.S. Judicial Conference even referred Kindred to Congress for potential impeachment—even though he resigned—saying his behavior was so reprehensible that Congress should review it.

And now, not only does Kindred not have his judge job, but also he is also no longer allowed to practice law in Alaska. The state Supreme Court disbarred him, dropping a 67-page decision detailing his malfeasance. Really a top-notch judicial pick you got there, Trump. 

The 8th Circuit gets somehow even suckier

In its quest to become a rubber stamp for conservatives, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit overturned a ruling by the National Labor Relations Board that had found that Home Depot unlawfully terminated someone for having “BLM”—as in “Black Lives Matter”—on their work apron. Home Depot allowed people to personalize their aprons but allegedly told the employee, a person of color, they had to remove it since the company’s policy said that work aprons were not an appropriate place for religious beliefs, causes, or political messages. Home Depot also helpfully explained that if they had to let someone have “BLM” on a work apron, they would also have to allow swastikas.

Okaaaaaay.

In overturning the NLRB’s ruling, the 8th Circuit panel managed to completely eclipse the racism of Home Depot with some breathtaking racism of their own. You see, there were special circumstances here, according to the panel. This Home Depot store is in New Brighton, Minnesota, and the court determined that the “conditions” facing the store “gave rise to legitimate safety concerns.”

What concerns? Well, you see, George Floyd’s murder. No, really:

The activity in dispute was not a display at a random location in the United States; it was not at a normal moment in time; and it was not a generic message for equal rights or employee protection. [The employee’s] BLM message was broadcast only a few miles from the site of George Floyd's murder.

“A few miles” is doing a lot of work here. New Brighton is a suburb of Minneapolis that abuts the opposite end of the city from where Floyd was murdered. It’s several miles away … by freeway. 

This must have been during the unrest, then, right? 

Nope. The judges decided that an employee wearing “BLM” on their uniform in February 2021—months after Floyd’s murder and the subsequent protests—was “a clear risk to customer and employee safety,” and that the slogan reasonably threatened the security of the workplace. 

Just come out and say that you are going to let companies be racist. It would save us all a bunch of time. 

Flock data is a public record, and that is not great!

A few months ago, you might have heard about Texas deputies reportedly using Flock Safety, an automated license-plate reader, to track down someone who had allegedly had a self-managed abortion as part of a “death investigation” and possible prosecution. 

Sure, the deputies said they were just trying to find her to check on her welfare, and that’s why they reportedly conducted a nationwide search of over 83,000 Flock cameras and reviewed her text messages about the abortion. 

So, what could be worse than cops tapping into a giant network of surveillance cameras whenever they feel like it? Glad you asked.

How about if, at least in Washington state, everything from those Flock cameras are public records and therefore can be requested by anyone? Why should law enforcement have all the fun of using a dystopian surveillance tool to track people? Better to just throw open the doors to every bad actor!

And speaking of bad actors. Eight Washington state law enforcement agencies had already shared access to their Flock networks directly with U.S. Border Patrol.

So, a private company built a vast network of surveillance cameras. Which police have access to. And maybe in some places, anyone does. And maybe in other places, Border Patrol does as well. This surveillance state sucks.

This Texas Senate race is tearing Republicans apart

Imagine running for higher office, only to have your own party tell you that it’s selfish and that they don’t want you as a colleague. That’s basically what happened to GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas.

On Monday, Hunt announced that he’s jumping into the already crowded GOP Senate primary, taking on both Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

GOP Sen. John Cornyn of Texas

“The U.S. Senate race in Texas must be about more than a petty feud between two men who have spent months trading barbs,” Hunt said in a statement announcing his bid. “With my candidacy, this race will finally be about what’s most important: Texas.”

In an interview with The Associated Press, Hunt added that polling shows that “people want an alternative, and I’m going to give it to them.”

But the numbers don’t really back that up. Cornyn has clawed back what was once a massive polling gap with Paxton, and Hunt’s entry could make things even messier.

“The time is NOW,” Hunt wrote on X, alongside a campaign video heavy on testimonials from his wife, brother, and military colleagues—plus footage of him with President Donald Trump. Neither Cornyn nor Paxton was mentioned.

Hunt, a close Trump ally, has been laying the groundwork to join the Senate race for months. While he’s mostly stayed out of the Cornyn-Paxton fight in public, he and groups tied to him have poured more than $6 million into ads boosting his profile statewide. And his allies say that he’s a better match for the MAGA base than Cornyn—without all of Paxton’s legal baggage.

His entry upends what’s already one of the most volatile Senate primaries of 2026—and it could all but guarantee a runoff.

GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas with President Donald Trump

But not everyone’s thrilled. 

GOP leaders have made it clear that they’d rather Hunt stay in the House. Top Republicans—including those on the National Republican Senatorial Committee—have warned that his campaign would be a “vanity project” that wastes money and risks the party’s Senate majority.

“This is not a vanity project. This is about giving the people of Texas a viable alternative,” Hunt told the AP. “Let’s stop the exercise in futility and get the right person for the job.”

Still, the NRSC doubled down on Monday, openly siding with Cornyn.

“John Cornyn is a battle-tested conservative who continues to be a leader in delivering President Trump’s agenda in the U.S. Senate,” NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez said. “Now that Wesley has chosen personal ambition over holding President Trump’s House Majority, there will be a full vetting of his record. Senator Cornyn’s conservative record of accomplishment stands tall against Wesley’s.”

Cornyn, a 23-year Senate veteran, has been a lightning rod for the GOP base ever since he backed a bipartisan gun safety bill in 2022 and questioned Trump’s staying power in 2024. But Paxton has hammered him for it, framing Cornyn as out of touch with Texas conservatives.

Both have been chasing Trump’s endorsement—something that Hunt will now also have to compete for. The president hasn’t yet made his pick.

A 43-year-old former Army captain, Hunt will also have to introduce himself to voters outside of his Houston-area district to overcome Cornyn’s and Paxton’s statewide name recognition. And he’s up against serious money: Cornyn’s operation pulled in $3.9 million last quarter, while Paxton raised $2.9 million. Hunt, however, brought in just over $400,000.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton

According to The Texas Tribune, Cornyn allies have already spent roughly $19 million on ads, most of which tout his pro-Trump voting record and attack Paxton’s scandals—including the revelation that Paxton improperly claimed multiple homes as his primary residence to obtain better mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, Paxton hasn’t yet spent big on ads, but his personal drama looms large, having survived both an impeachment effort and a federal corruption probe. His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, recently filed for divorce and accused him of adultery—deepening concerns about his electability.

Recent polling shows Cornyn narrowing Paxton’s lead, with Hunt polling third in a three-way race but pulling votes from both rivals. In a one-on-one matchup, internal polling shared with Punchbowl News showed Hunt performing better—likely enough to force a runoff if he finishes second in March.

Hunt’s decision to run also opens his solidly Republican 38th Congressional District, which backed Trump by 20 points in 2024. Between retirements and Texas’ new GOP-tilted districts, that’s at least seven open seats that could be up for grabs—ensuring pricey and chaotic primaries across the state.

On the Democratic side, the primary is also heating up. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who narrowly lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, faces state Rep. James Talarico, a rising progressive star known for fighting Texas’ mid-decade redistricting.

Senate GOP leadership remains firmly behind Cornyn, with a top Super PAC already spending more than $8 million to protect him. But for now, the biggest question is whether Trump will step in or stay out long enough to let his allies tear each other apart.

Get your popcorn ready. Texas Republicans are in for one brutal brawl.

GOP is freaking out over Texas Senate race

A prominent right-wing super PAC is begging its donors to help prop up Texas GOP Sen. John Cornyn's Senate bid, saying that if he is not the nominee, the seat could flip to Democrats next November, Punchbowl News reported.

According to a slide presentation from the Senate Leadership Fund—a super PAC tied to outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky—Cornyn is currently losing to scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by an average of 17 percentage points.

In the presentation, SLF noted that it may need as much as $70 million to help Cornyn survive the primary. They view this as a necessary expenditure as they fear Paxton could lose a general election to a Democrat. 

According to one slide in the deck, SLF presented polling showing Cornyn leads Democratic Senate candidate Collin Allred by 6 points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, while Paxton trails Allred by 1 point. What’s more, SLF said that if Cornyn loses the primary to Paxton, Republicans could need to spend as much as $250 million to prop up Paxton in a general election matchup.

Texas has been reliably Republican in presidential years, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat in the state since 1988. However, in a midterm with President Donald Trump in office, the seat could prove more competitive.

Back in 2018—Trump's first midterm year—Republicans barely held on to Texas' Senate seat, with Republican Ted Cruz defeating Democrat Beto O'Rourke by just over 2 points.

Paxton would be as much of a liability for Republicans as loathsome Cruz—or more.

Texas Sens. John Cornyn, left, and Ted Cruz pose for pictures in 2019 near Sarita, Texas.

Paxton was indicted on felony securities fraud charges, though they were later dropped in 2024, in exchange for agreeing to perform community service.

Paxton was also impeached by the state House in 2023 for alleged bribery and allegedly having an affair, but he was acquitted of the charges by the state Senate, which Republicans control.

And in July, Paxton's wife—state Sen. Angela Paxton—filed for divorce from Paxton, accusing him of adultery.

However, while those abhorrent actions would be a liability in a general election, Republican primary voters—who love Trump, a notorious adulterer and corrupt leader—are not as repelled by Paxton’s behavior. 

Indeed, SLF said in their slide presentation that Cornyn is losing because GOP primary voters view Paxton as more conservative.

Seeking to change his grim odds in the race, Cornyn has been desperate for Trump to weigh in on the race. Cornyn told Fox News in July that he has spoken to Trump about a prospective endorsement, saying that would guarantee him a primary win. 

Cornyn also pandered to Trump by trying to sic the FBI on the Texas Democratic lawmakers who fled the state to prevent Republicans from corruptly redrawing the state's congressional maps to rig the 2026 midterm elections. Trump ordered Texas to redraw the state’s congressional map, hoping it would make it harder for Democrats to win the U.S. House next November and save him from facing investigations and a check on his power.

Paxton is also hoping for Trump’s endorsement, going as far as reportedly stalking Trump on a recent trip to Scotland to win Trump’s blessing. 

Texas’ Senate contest is currently rated a “Likely Republican” contest by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan political handicapping outlet. 

This Texas Republican stalked Trump to get his endorsement—and flopped

To win President Donald Trump’s endorsement amid a rough GOP Senate primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton did what most of us would be too embarrassed to do: He stalked Trump.

CNN reports that Paxton made an unannounced visit to Trump’s golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland, last month, where he just happened to bump into the president. It’s unclear if Trump was expecting the pop-in, though they reportedly spoke about the primary, where Paxton is challenging incumbent John Cornyn from the right.

It’s not the only time Paxton has gone out of his way to win Trump over. Earlier this summer, a pro-Paxton political action committee aired its first TV ad in Palm Beach, Florida—right where Trump could see it from Mar-a-Lago—and far from Texas.

It’s the kind of pandering and political theater Trump has come to expect. In today’s GOP, making another man the centerpiece of your brand is seen as a strategic move, not an embarrassing one. Paxton flew 4,500 miles just to kiss the ring.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, shown in January.

But Paxton’s gotta do what he’s gotta do to win this messy primary. And with Rep. Wesley Hunt eyeing a run, it could get even more volatile. But despite his cross-continental pilgrimage, Paxton has nothing to show for it. Trump hasn’t endorsed anyone, and sources close to the president say he’s holding back for now. He’s got time too: The primary isn’t until March.

Cornyn and Paxton, longtime rivals, are now in what’s becoming one of the marquee Republican showdowns of the 2026 midterm cycle. The two have never been allies. Cornyn has long viewed Paxton as a scandal magnet and legal risk, while Paxton paints Cornyn as a swampy moderate out of step with the MAGA base. The animosity runs deep, fueling an increasingly sycophantic race to win Trump’s favor.

Paxton might have the upper hand with the GOP grassroots—at least for now. Numerous public and private polls show him leading Cornyn in the primary. But he also carries baggage. He’s in the middle of a high-profile divorce after his wife accused him of adultery, a saga that could turn voters off as it becomes more public. He was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges of abusing his office to benefit a political donor—though he was later acquitted by the Senate.

Then there’s Paxton’s role in enforcing Texas’s near-total abortion ban. In March, his office filed the state’s first criminal charges under the law, arresting a Houston-area midwife and one of her employees. While that may appeal to hard-line conservatives, it could alienate suburban voters who have trended away from the GOP in recent years.

Trump’s team is watching the race closely, according to CNN, since the outcome could influence control of the Senate in 2026. With Republicans bracing for a possible loss of their House majority—despite aggressive gerrymandering—their Senate majority takes on increased importance. A flawed nominee like Paxton could give Democrats a shot in flipping the seat next November. 

“Winning is all that matters to the president,” an anonymous Republican strategist close to the White House told CNN. They also emphasized that loyalty isn’t the key to unlock Trump’s endorsement—it’s supposedly electability.

Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas, shown in 2023.

That’s why Cornyn may still have a chance. He’s a seasoned fundraiser, aligned with Senate leadership, and has never lost a statewide race. While Trump’s style may seem more compatible with Paxton, a messy general election in a state slowly turning purple might make Cornyn the safer choice.

There’s also the wildcard of Hunt, who could split the pro-Trump vote. A Black Iraq War veteran with ties to both MAGA activists and the GOP establishment, Hunt could force Trump to pick sides sooner than planned—or decide not to endorse at all. Hunt’s entry would only escalate the scramble for Trump's backing.

Still, Paxton leads most polls of the primary, and if he wins, it’ll likely boost Democrats’ chances of flipping the seat. Former Rep. Colin Allred has announced his campaign, and there are whispers that state Rep. James Talarico might join him in the primary. Texas has long been a white whale for Democrats—tantalizingly close in some cycles but always just out of reach. They believe a damaged GOP nominee like Paxton could tip the scales.

That’s exactly what national Republicans want to avoid. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and others have endorsed Cornyn, worried that nominating Paxton could jeopardize the seat—and the Senate majority.

Meanwhile, Trump is in no rush. As Texas Republicans trip over themselves to prove who's more loyal, he’s sitting back and soaking it in—relishing the spectacle of grown men groveling for his approval.

Is another Texas Republican about to shake up the state’s Senate race?

Rep. Wesley Hunt may be about to make an already chaotic Texas GOP Senate primary even messier.

The Houston-area congressman has reserved ad time on Fox News in the Washington, D.C., market, with the spot scheduled to air on Saturday, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Axios reports Hunt is also spending six figures on ads in the Dallas and Houston media markets—an unmistakable sign he’s eyeing a statewide run.

And this isn’t his first appearance outside his district. In April, a political action committee ran biographical ads about Hunt in cities far from Houston—including Washington, D.C., and West Palm Beach, Florida, home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago—according to the Associated Press. Medium Buying, another ad-tracking firm, says Hunt’s congressional campaign also aired spots on Newsmax in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio from July 12-18.

Rumors of Hunt running for Senate have been swirling for months. But this latest media blitz marks his clearest signal yet. Axios reports the newest ad features Hunt alongside his wife and three young children, with a voiceover declaring: “Family, faith, freedom. These are the values that define Texas, and they’re the values that define Wesley Hunt.”

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton

The message seems aimed at creating a stark contrast with Attorney General Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued front-runner who’s now going through a high-profile divorce. State Sen. Angela Paxton filed last week on “biblical grounds,” accusing her husband of adultery and saying the couple has lived apart for over a year.

Paxton didn’t exactly deny the allegations. Instead, he released a statement saying, “I could not be any more proud or grateful for the incredible family that God has blessed us with, and I remain committed to supporting our amazing children and grandchildren.”

That kind of baggage may give Hunt the opening he needs. He’s been emphasizing his military background—a time-tested selling point for Texas Republicans—and his ads have reached beyond major metros, airing in Amarillo, San Antonio, and Waco.

With Paxton mired in scandal and Sen. John Cornyn trailing badly in primary polling, Hunt could emerge as a viable alternative for Republican voters fed up with both. Cornyn, who has held his seat since 2002, still has party leadership support, but that might not be enough to carry him through a tough primary.

Sen. John Cornyn

Even Trump is holding back. According to Senate GOP sources, White House officials recently told Minority Whip John Thune that the president plans to stay neutral, at least for now. He’s waiting to see if Cornyn can close the gap before weighing in.

Meanwhile, more potential candidates are eyeing the race. Rep. Ronny Jackson—Trump’s former White House physician—is also said to be considering a bid.

And Democrats are preparing for their own fight. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who challenged Ted Cruz in 2024, has already entered the race. But other high-profile Democrats—Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke—are also considering runs, setting the stage for a possible intraparty showdown.

For now, the Republican field is fractured, the front-runner is under scrutiny, and the establishment pick is struggling. If Hunt enters, it almost guarantees a fierce primary fight. So, yes—grab your popcorn. Texas Republicans are gearing up to tear each other apart—again.

This Democrat is launching a comeback bid in Texas’ Senate race

Former Rep. Colin Allred—a civil rights attorney, ex-lineback for the National Football League, and one of Texas Democrats’ brightest prospects—is making a comeback. About eight months after losing to Sen. Ted Cruz, Allred is jumping back into the ring, this time setting his sights on Sen. John Cornyn in 2026.

“Texans are working harder than ever, not getting as much time with their kids, missing those special moments, all to be able to afford less,” Allred said in his launch video. “And the people we elected to help—politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton—are too corrupt to care about us and too weak to fight for us.”

His message is clear: He’s not finished fighting. The video emphasizes his background and the grit it took to make it to the NFL.

“At heart, I’m still that undrafted kid, fighting for what’s right. I’m still that guy showering after work, instead of before,” Allred said—a subtle reference to his second Senate bid.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, shown in March 2024.

Texas Democrats see an opening. Cornyn is caught in a messy fight with state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the scandal-ridden MAGA hard-liner beloved by President Donald Trump’s base. A recent Texas Southern University poll showed Paxton with a 9-percentage-point lead over Cornyn in a two-way Republican primary, but only a 2-point edge over Allred in a general election matchup. That’s why Allred’s video targets both men.

Internal GOP polling reportedly confirms that Paxton is a riskier nominee in a general election. But so far, Trump has withheld his endorsement. While Paxton has been one of Trump’s most loyal defenders, Cornyn is generally seen as more electable statewide.

Still, Allred shouldn’t take the primary for granted. The Democratic field could grow quickly. Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke have all reportedly considered running. Former astronaut Terry Virts and flight attendant Mike Swanson are already in the race, though neither has gained traction.

That’s part of why top Democrats are pushing for a unified statewide slate. With more than a dozen major offices on the ballot in 2026—including governor, lieutenant governor, and Paxton’s soon-to-be-open attorney general seat—party leaders hope to avoid a contentious Senate primary and instead focus on retaking a statewide office for the first time since 1994.

Beto O'Rourke, right, hugs a supporter at a gathering during his run for governor, in Fort Worth, Texas, in March 2022.

Allred arrives with some big advantages: name recognition, national fundraising networks, and potential bipartisan appeal. During his 2024 race, he secured endorsements from prominent anti-Trump Republicans, like former Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows 37% of registered voters in the state view Allred favorably—more than Paxton (35%) or Cornyn (21%). He was also the only political figure in the poll to have a net-positive favorability, meaning more voters had a favorable view of him than had a negative view.

However, Allred has something to prove. His previous campaign was criticized for being too cautious, especially compared with the energy O’Rourke brought in 2018. Despite outraising Cruz, Allred lost by 8.5 points—though he outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who lost Texas to Trump by nearly 14 points.

This time, Allred promises a different approach. Now, free from congressional duties, Allred said in a recent interview that he plans to “run differently” in 2026—more aggressively, less cautiously.

Allred first ran for office in 2018, flipping a Dallas-area district by defeating GOP incumbent Pete Sessions. Before that, he worked at the Department of Housing and Urban Development in the Obama administration.

Now he’s betting that 2026 will finally be the year Texas flips—and that he’ll be the one to do it.

Campaign Action

Get your popcorn: Republicans are set to rip each other apart in Texas

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is staring down the biggest political threat of his career: a MAGA-fueled primary challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

Paxton kicked off his Senate bid on April 8, announcing it on Fox News with host Laura Ingraham and blasting Cornyn’s “lack of production” in more than two decades on the job.

“We have another great U.S. senator, Ted Cruz, and it’s time we have another great senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas, and also support [President] Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way,” Paxton said. “And that’s what I plan on doing.”

The thing is, Cornyn has been reliably conservative and loyal to Trump. But that won’t stop this from likely turning into one of the ugliest, most expensive GOP primaries in recent Texas history—a full-on proxy war between the Republican establishment and the MAGA wing. Trump hasn’t endorsed yet, but he’s teasing that he’ll tip the scales before the March 2026 primary. 

Cornyn has all the usual advantages: establishment backing, a deep bench of donors, and nearly $1.6 million raised in just the first quarter of this year alone. Paxton jumped in after the first-quarter fundraising filing deadline, so we’ll have to wait until July to see how much he’s raised. 

But what Paxton may lack in cash, he makes up for in chaos.

Last week, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, endorsed Cornyn with a barely veiled jab at Paxton, who’s been dogged by legal drama for years.

“John Cornyn is a leader who delivers on President Trump's agenda and for the people of Texas in the U.S. Senate,” Scott said. “He’s a proven fighter, man of faith, and essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”

Indeed, Paxton has faced securities fraud charges, was impeached by the GOP-led Texas House of Representatives for abuse-of-power allegations, and allegedly cheated on his wife. One brutal Cornyn campaign statement put it plainly: “Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

While Cornyn may not be a saint, next to Paxton, he sure looks like one. Paxton—whom Trump once called “a very talented guy”—attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the Capitol riot. He also tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, and more recently, he oversaw Texas’ first arrests under the state’s post-Roe v. Wade abortion ban. In general, he’s a walking ethics violation.

Still, Paxton has built a loyal following among the Texas GOP’s far-right base, which stood by him during his Republican-led impeachment in 2023. A January poll from the University of Houston, for instance, showed 36% of Texas GOP voters would “definitely” consider voting for him, edging out Cornyn (32%). And some polling has been even starker: A February poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates had Paxton up more than 20 percentage points over Cornyn—and, unfortunately, winning in a general election.

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas

Even Texas’ other senator isn’t backing Cornyn. Instead, Cruz is playing neutral, likely because he’s read the same surveys.

“Both John and Ken are friends of mine,” Cruz said to reporters recently. “I respect them both, and I trust the voters of Texas to make that decision.” (Translation: Cruz is hedging.)

Republican voters nominating Paxton isn’t without risks, though. 

Axios reports GOP strategists are warning Paxton could give Democrats their best shot at flipping the seat, even though Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. In 2024, former Texas Rep. Colin Allred lost to Cruz by over 8 points. (Allred is reportedly also considering a Senate run in 2026.)

Republicans are nervous enough that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is privately pushing Trump to endorse Cornyn, according to CNN.

But Cornyn’s got vulnerabilities that MAGA world loves to exploit, like how he backed aid to Ukraine and supported a bipartisan gun-reform bill after a gunman killed 19 students and two teachers at Uvalde’s Robb Elementary School. That alone might be enough for Paxton to slap him with the dreaded “RINO” label and ride away with the base.

Cornyn may have the donors, the party brass, and the resume—but in today’s GOP, that may not be enough. If Trump backs Paxton, Cornyn’s long Senate career could be toast. And if Paxton wins? Democrats may finally have a (narrow) shot at flipping a Senate seat in Texas. 

Either way, this primary is shaping up to be a MAGA-fueled circus. Pass the popcorn.

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Texas makes first arrest under state’s terrifying abortion ban

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton released a statement Monday boasting about the arrest of a Houston-area midwife for illegally performing an abortion, marking the state’s first criminal charge for abortion since its near-total ban was implemented in 2022.

The morally corrupt Paxton alleged that the midwife, Maria Margarita Rojas, “owned and operated multiple clinics” around Houston, including two in Texas’ most populous county, Harris County. 

The statement said that Rojas was charged with performing an illegal abortion and practicing medicine without a license. The former charge is a second-degree felony, which comes with a potential sentence of up to 20 years in prison.

One of Rojas’ employees, Jose Manuel Cendan Ley, was also arrested for the same offenses, Paxton’s office announced on Tuesday. 

“In Texas, life is sacred. I will always do everything in my power to protect the unborn, defend our state’s pro-life laws, and work to ensure that unlicensed individuals endangering the lives of women by performing illegal abortions are fully prosecuted,” Paxton said. “Texas law protecting life is clear, and we will hold those who violate it accountable.”

According to The Texas Tribune, Rojas, who identified herself as “Dr. Maria,” and Ley attempted to perform an abortion on someone identified as E.G. twice in March. In a separate bail motion, the state also alleged that Rojas performed an abortion in Harris County earlier this year.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton

The consequences for Rojas could be severe, with Texas law increasing the penalty for performing an abortion to a lifetime in prison. Rojas also risks getting her medical license revoked.

Similarly, Ley will likely be intensely scrutinized, especially since court records indicate that Ley is not an American citizen, but a citizen of Cuba.

“Individuals killing unborn babies by performing illegal abortions in Texas will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law, and I will not rest until justice is served. I will continue to fight to protect life and work to ensure that anyone guilty of violating our state’s pro-life laws is held accountable,” Paxton said on Tuesday.

Texas has one of the nation’s most extreme abortion laws, though it’s far from the only state with a ban. Notably, Texas has been at the forefront of draconian abortion restrictions, with its law being introduced to the state’s GOP-dominated legislature even before Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022.

Under current law, Texas only permits abortions in extreme circumstances—and even then it isn’t guaranteed. In 2023, Kate Cox of Texas was denied an abortion even after she received a lethal fetal diagnosis, for which her doctor said she needed an abortion to preserve her health and future fertility. As Paxton’s office threatened felony charges against any provider who dared to help her, Cox was forced to leave the state to receive the abortion care she needed.

Since then, Texas Republicans’ views on abortion have only gotten more extreme. 

In December, Paxton’s office sued a New York doctor for prescribing an abortion pill to a Texas resident. And ahead of this year’s legislative session, a Texas lawmaker filed a bill that would reclassify abortion pills as controlled substances, though the measure still has not gained any traction.

A friend of Rojas’ told The New York Times that she was shocked by news of the arrest.

“She was on her way to the clinic and got pulled over by the police at gunpoint and handcuffed. She said they wouldn’t tell her what was happening. She said they took her to Austin,” fellow midwife Holly Shearman said.

Shearman, who identified herself as a conservative, said she didn’t “believe the charges” against Rojas. 

“She never, ever talked about anything like that, and she’s very Catholic,” she said.

But, as feminist writer Jessica Valenti pointed out, Paxton’s office is likely to paint Rojas as a villain, regardless of the truth. 

This is somewhat laughable coming from Paxton, of all people, who was impeached by the Texas House in May 2023 after he was accused of abusing his power to help a friend and political donor. He was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.

You’d think that Paxton would have bigger things to worry about, but, of course, he has his sights set on appealing to conservative voters by prosecuting a local midwife—or even running for the U.S. Senate.

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With new rules, the Texas GOP seeks to keep its elected officials in line

The state party plans to limit primaries to registered Republicans and keep elected officials it censured off the ballot. It’s unclear if it can without legislative approval.

By James Barragán, The Texas Tribune

Republican voters in Texas sent a strong message this primary season about their expectations for ideological purity, casting out 15 state House GOP incumbents who bucked the grassroots on issues like school vouchers or the impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton.

At the same time this spring, the party itself has been making moves beyond the ballot box to keep its elected officials in line.

At its biennial convention last month, the Texas GOP tried to increase its party purity by approving two major rules changes: One would close the Republican primary elections so that only voters the party identifies as Republicans can participate. The other would bar candidates from the primary ballot for two years after they had been censured by the state party.

Jon Taylor, a political science professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio, said the moves are clear political shots by the increasingly dominant right wing of the party to root out dissenters and shape the party in its image.

“It says something about this battle, this civil war that’s broken out in the Republican Party of Texas that one side has gotten so concerned that they haven't been able to solidify their control of the party that they want to close their primary,” he said.

But the ideas have drawn pushback from inside and outside the party, with many questioning whether the GOP has the power to enact them without action from the state Legislature.

James Wesolek, a spokesperson for the Republican Party of Texas, said the party will be pursuing the policies regardless. He added that “an overwhelming majority” of Republican voters supported the ideas when they were included as propositions in the GOP primary this year.

“We hope the legislature takes action, but we will move forward as our rules dictate,” Wesolek said in an email last week.

Questions remain about how that would work.

Eric Opiela, a longtime Republican who previously served as the state party’s executive director and was part of the rules committee at this year’s convention, said moving forward on closing the primary without legislative action would lead to legal challenges.

Because party primaries are publicly financed and perform the public service of selecting candidates for elected office, they must adhere to the state’s election law, said Opiela, who has also served as a lawyer for the state party.

Currently, any voter can participate in a Democrat or Republican primary without having to register an affiliation. Without a change to state law, the Texas GOP could open itself to liability if it barred voters from participating in its primary elections, Opiela said.

Under the rules approved by the GOP, a voter would be eligible to cast a ballot in a primary if they voted in a GOP primary in the past two years or submitted a “certificate of affiliation with the Republican Party of Texas” prior to the candidate filing period for that election. They also could register with the state party, though the party hasn’t yet unveiled a process to do so.

A voter under 21 could also vote in the primary if it were their first primary election.

But critics are concerned that the party is underestimating the amount of work required to vet a person’s voting history. And Opiela also said that there are concerns about how to provide proper notification to new voters, especially military voters, who might have recently moved into the state and are not covered under the proposal as written. He said such concerns are why these changes should be left to the Legislature, where lawmakers can consider obstacles to implementation and come up with solutions.

“I don’t know that the process was given much thought,” said Opiela. “Those of us who have run an election know that this isn’t easy to pull off.”

Texas is among 15 states that currently have open primaries, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Ten states currently have closed primaries.

Closed primaries are a particularly hot topic in the GOP due to frustration among some in the conservative grassroots over House Speaker Dade Phelan’s primary runoff victory.

Phelan oversaw the passage of major conservative victories including restricting abortion and loosening gun laws in recent years. But he has become a target of the hard right for failing to pass school voucher legislation, appointing some Democrats to chair legislative committees and presiding over the impeachment of Paxton, who is a darling of the hard right.

He finished second in his March primary, but won his primary runoff against right wing candidate David Covey by fewer than 400 votes. Covey and his supporters blamed Phelan’s victory on Democratic voters who crossed over into the GOP primary runoff to vote for Phelan.

It’s difficult to say whether that’s true; Texas doesn’t track party registration. About 4% of the people who voted in the GOP primary this year had most recently voted in the Democratic primary, according to data compiled by elections data expert Derek Ryan, a Republican. But party leaders, such as recently departed party Chair Matt Rinaldi, have pointed to the Phelan race as a reason for a need for change.

“The time is now for Republicans to choose our own nominees without Democrat interference,” Rinaldi said in May.

Taylor, the UTSA professor, said the push to close the primaries was in line with the right wing’s push to force GOP candidates to follow the party line.

“You’re engaging in a form of ideological conformity, you’re demanding 100% fealty to the party,” he said.

But Daron Shaw, a political science professor at the University of Texas, pushed back against those crying foul.

“It is completely unclear to me how it is the ‘right’ of a voter in Texas, particularly one that does not identify as a Republican, to vote in the selection of Republican candidates,” he said. “Ultimately, a party is a private association and if it chooses to select extreme candidates, then presumably the general electorate will react accordingly.”

The rule to bar candidates who had been censured by the state party has also been met with skepticism.

Opiela said that if a candidate turned in an application that otherwise met the requirements for running for office, a court would likely order the party to allow the candidate on the ballot. He also said the provision could open up precinct and county chairs to criminal liability for rejecting applications that met the requirements.

The state party rule tries to cover for that potential liability by stating it would provide legal representation for any party official who is sued for complying with the rule.

Asked by The Texas Tribune to assess the legality of the idea, Rick Hasen, a UCLA professor and election law expert, called it “dicey.”

Taylor, from UTSA, said the move was also a pretty transparent message to elected officials like Phelan and U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales to fall in line. Phelan was censured in February for overseeing Paxton’s impeachment and appointing Democrats as committee chairs. Gonzales was censured for supporting a bipartisan gun law in the wake of the 2022 Uvalde shooting, which occurred in his district, and his vote for a bill that codified protections for same-sex marriage.

The censure rule in particular has been denounced as undemocratic, an increasingly common criticism from the GOP’s loudest critics. At the same party convention, the state party changed its platform to call for a new requirement that candidates for statewide office must also win a majority of votes in a majority of Texas’ 254 counties to win office, a model similar to that of the U.S. Electoral College.

That proposal, which represents the official position of the party but does not have any power of law, has been panned as unconstitutional.

“There’s a very good argument that such a system would violate the Constitution as interpreted by the Supreme Court,” Hasen said.

Under the proposal, the 4.7 million residents of Harris County would have the same voting power as the 64 residents of Loving County.

“It’s basically a tyranny of the minority,” Taylor said. “This is designed to potentially go a step further in nullifying the concept of one person-one vote.”

The proposals come even as the GOP has dominated Texas politics for decades, and the hardline conservative movement continues to grow its influence. Brian W. Smith, a political science professor at St. Edward’s University in Austin, questioned the moves on a political level.

“Texas is already gerrymandered to elect ideologically pure candidates. We’re not seeing a lot of Republicans or Democrats moving to the middle to attract a broad swath of voters,” he said. “The Dade Phelans of the world are not winning because of independents or Democrats, they’re winning because they’re more popular among Republicans than their opponents.”

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