Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett has given herself a deadline: By Thanksgiving, she’ll decide whether to seek another term representing Dallas in the 30th Congressional District—or jump into the U.S. Senate race.
Over the weekend, she made the stakes plain. In an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Crockett said her internal polling suggests she’d be a real threat to either of the likely Republican nominees, Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton.
“I am still thinking about running. We did get our polling back, so we are moving on to the next phase to determine whether or not this would make sense in the moment,” Crockett said, adding that Republicans are mired in a “civil war” over who should carry their banner next year.
She reiterated that point to CBS News Texas, insisting no decision has been made—yet promising clarity before Thursday.
“Everyone thinks that I’m just holding a secret in, but our poll is in the field right now,” she said. “We are supposed to get that polling back by the end of the week or early next week. I said I would decide by Thanksgiving.”
Pressed by Tapper to reveal what the numbers look like, Crockett leaned in.
“Head-to-head, we are doing really well against Paxton,” she said. “I will also tell you we’re within the margin of error as it relates to John Cornyn. The only reason I’m continuing to consider whether or not I do this is because my polling says I can win.”
She also plans to share that polling with her other potential Democratic rivals, State Rep. James Talarico and former Rep. Colin Allred.
“This isn’t about me,” she told CBS. “If the numbers are strong, that I am our best shot, then it’s bigger than my district. It’s bigger than the state of Texas. This is about the country because we know if we can change the Senate map in this country, then that’s where we start to get wins.”
If she enters the race, she’d instantly reorder the Democratic primary. Allred—who entered the bid in July—and Talarico—who joined in September—are already jockeying for the nomination, but neither matches Crockett’s profile or national following.
Recent polling underscores that. A University of Houston-Texas Southern University survey put her atop the Democratic field at 31%. Talarico and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke followed at 25%, with Allred at 13%. And in a matchup limited to announced candidates, Allred led Talarico 46%–42%.
O’Rourke has indicated he’s unlikely to run again, though he gave Crockett a nod at the November Texas Tribune Festival. “You know you’re doing the right thing when Donald Trump is shit talking you on a daily basis, right?” he said.
Crockett’s national prominence has translated into sizable fundraising—she’s sitting on more than $4.6 million, according to The Dallas Morning News. A Senate bid, however, would open her deep-blue Dallas House seat and spark a fierce local race.
Redistricting looms over all of it. Texas Republicans pushed a mid-decade congressional map designed to net them up to five new seats. A federal panel blocked it as a racial gerrymander, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold Friday, allowing the map to remain—for now.
Even if Crockett runs, Democrats face brutal statewide math. The GOP typically holds a built-in advantage of 750,000 to more than 1 million voters. Past Democratic strategies—maximizing base turnout, courting new voters, or appealing to suburban moderates—have rarely cracked that wall.
Critics on the left argue that Crockett could squander a safe seat for a statewide campaign they see as unwinnable, especially in a state with so many independents and Republicans. Crockett, however, says she’s testing whether she can broaden the electorate.
“I believe that I can, but if I can’t, I can tell you for sure, 100% that I will not run,” she told CNN.
Democrats, including Crockett, are banking on Paxton emerging from the GOP primary. Beloved by conservative activists and buoyed by his 2023 impeachment acquittal, he’s still viewed by some Republicans as a risky general-election nominee.
The Republican race has its own turbulence. GOP leaders in Washington have been urging Rep. Wesley Hunt to step aside, warning his bid could drain resources and force a costly runoff. Hunt isn’t budging.
“If Senate leadership does not like me being in this race, you know what I say? Good,” he told CNN. “Senate leadership does not pick the leadership in Texas.”
The contest has only grown more hostile, with Hunt and Cornyn trading shots while Paxton mostly watches. Paxton has spent just $1 million through Sept. 30—well behind Cornyn’s $3.5 million and Hunt’s $2.3 million.
President Donald Trump hasn’t endorsed anyone. Hunt says even if Trump backs someone else, he’s staying put.
“Trump’s endorsement is absolutely incredible in any Republican primary in this great nation, but I’m sorry you cannot revive that dead campaign,” Hunt said of Cornyn.
For Democrats to retake the Senate, they must defend every seat they hold and flip four—including at least two in red states. Texas is their longest shot and their biggest swing.
And Crockett, for now, is the person who could blow the race wide open. The question is whether she jumps. All eyes are on Thursday.
