Category: JohnCornyn

GOP is freaking out over Texas Senate race

Posted on by Emily Singer

A prominent right-wing super PAC is begging its donors to help prop up Texas GOP Sen. John Cornyn's Senate bid, saying that if he is not the nominee, the seat could flip to Democrats next November, Punchbowl News reported.

According to a slide presentation from the Senate Leadership Fund—a super PAC tied to outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky—Cornyn is currently losing to scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by an average of 17 percentage points.

In the presentation, SLF noted that it may need as much as $70 million to help Cornyn survive the primary. They view this as a necessary expenditure as they fear Paxton could lose a general election to a Democrat. 

According to one slide in the deck, SLF presented polling showing Cornyn leads Democratic Senate candidate Collin Allred by 6 points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, while Paxton trails Allred by 1 point. What’s more, SLF said that if Cornyn loses the primary to Paxton, Republicans could need to spend as much as $250 million to prop up Paxton in a general election matchup.

Texas has been reliably Republican in presidential years, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat in the state since 1988. However, in a midterm with President Donald Trump in office, the seat could prove more competitive.

Back in 2018—Trump's first midterm year—Republicans barely held on to Texas' Senate seat, with Republican Ted Cruz defeating Democrat Beto O'Rourke by just over 2 points.

Paxton would be as much of a liability for Republicans as loathsome Cruz—or more.

Texas Sens. John Cornyn, left, and Ted Cruz pose for pictures in 2019 near Sarita, Texas.

Paxton was indicted on felony securities fraud charges, though they were later dropped in 2024, in exchange for agreeing to perform community service.

Paxton was also impeached by the state House in 2023 for alleged bribery and allegedly having an affair, but he was acquitted of the charges by the state Senate, which Republicans control.

And in July, Paxton's wife—state Sen. Angela Paxton—filed for divorce from Paxton, accusing him of adultery.

However, while those abhorrent actions would be a liability in a general election, Republican primary voters—who love Trump, a notorious adulterer and corrupt leader—are not as repelled by Paxton’s behavior. 

Indeed, SLF said in their slide presentation that Cornyn is losing because GOP primary voters view Paxton as more conservative.

Seeking to change his grim odds in the race, Cornyn has been desperate for Trump to weigh in on the race. Cornyn told Fox News in July that he has spoken to Trump about a prospective endorsement, saying that would guarantee him a primary win. 

Cornyn also pandered to Trump by trying to sic the FBI on the Texas Democratic lawmakers who fled the state to prevent Republicans from corruptly redrawing the state's congressional maps to rig the 2026 midterm elections. Trump ordered Texas to redraw the state’s congressional map, hoping it would make it harder for Democrats to win the U.S. House next November and save him from facing investigations and a check on his power.

Paxton is also hoping for Trump’s endorsement, going as far as reportedly stalking Trump on a recent trip to Scotland to win Trump’s blessing. 

Texas’ Senate contest is currently rated a “Likely Republican” contest by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan political handicapping outlet. 

This Texas Republican stalked Trump to get his endorsement—and flopped

Posted on by Alex Samuels

To win President Donald Trump’s endorsement amid a rough GOP Senate primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton did what most of us would be too embarrassed to do: He stalked Trump.

CNN reports that Paxton made an unannounced visit to Trump’s golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland, last month, where he just happened to bump into the president. It’s unclear if Trump was expecting the pop-in, though they reportedly spoke about the primary, where Paxton is challenging incumbent John Cornyn from the right.

It’s not the only time Paxton has gone out of his way to win Trump over. Earlier this summer, a pro-Paxton political action committee aired its first TV ad in Palm Beach, Florida—right where Trump could see it from Mar-a-Lago—and far from Texas.

It’s the kind of pandering and political theater Trump has come to expect. In today’s GOP, making another man the centerpiece of your brand is seen as a strategic move, not an embarrassing one. Paxton flew 4,500 miles just to kiss the ring.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, shown in January.

But Paxton’s gotta do what he’s gotta do to win this messy primary. And with Rep. Wesley Hunt eyeing a run, it could get even more volatile. But despite his cross-continental pilgrimage, Paxton has nothing to show for it. Trump hasn’t endorsed anyone, and sources close to the president say he’s holding back for now. He’s got time too: The primary isn’t until March.

Cornyn and Paxton, longtime rivals, are now in what’s becoming one of the marquee Republican showdowns of the 2026 midterm cycle. The two have never been allies. Cornyn has long viewed Paxton as a scandal magnet and legal risk, while Paxton paints Cornyn as a swampy moderate out of step with the MAGA base. The animosity runs deep, fueling an increasingly sycophantic race to win Trump’s favor.

Paxton might have the upper hand with the GOP grassroots—at least for now. Numerous public and private polls show him leading Cornyn in the primary. But he also carries baggage. He’s in the middle of a high-profile divorce after his wife accused him of adultery, a saga that could turn voters off as it becomes more public. He was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges of abusing his office to benefit a political donor—though he was later acquitted by the Senate.

Then there’s Paxton’s role in enforcing Texas’s near-total abortion ban. In March, his office filed the state’s first criminal charges under the law, arresting a Houston-area midwife and one of her employees. While that may appeal to hard-line conservatives, it could alienate suburban voters who have trended away from the GOP in recent years.

Trump’s team is watching the race closely, according to CNN, since the outcome could influence control of the Senate in 2026. With Republicans bracing for a possible loss of their House majority—despite aggressive gerrymandering—their Senate majority takes on increased importance. A flawed nominee like Paxton could give Democrats a shot in flipping the seat next November. 

“Winning is all that matters to the president,” an anonymous Republican strategist close to the White House told CNN. They also emphasized that loyalty isn’t the key to unlock Trump’s endorsement—it’s supposedly electability.

Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas, shown in 2023.

That’s why Cornyn may still have a chance. He’s a seasoned fundraiser, aligned with Senate leadership, and has never lost a statewide race. While Trump’s style may seem more compatible with Paxton, a messy general election in a state slowly turning purple might make Cornyn the safer choice.

There’s also the wildcard of Hunt, who could split the pro-Trump vote. A Black Iraq War veteran with ties to both MAGA activists and the GOP establishment, Hunt could force Trump to pick sides sooner than planned—or decide not to endorse at all. Hunt’s entry would only escalate the scramble for Trump's backing.

Still, Paxton leads most polls of the primary, and if he wins, it’ll likely boost Democrats’ chances of flipping the seat. Former Rep. Colin Allred has announced his campaign, and there are whispers that state Rep. James Talarico might join him in the primary. Texas has long been a white whale for Democrats—tantalizingly close in some cycles but always just out of reach. They believe a damaged GOP nominee like Paxton could tip the scales.

That’s exactly what national Republicans want to avoid. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and others have endorsed Cornyn, worried that nominating Paxton could jeopardize the seat—and the Senate majority.

Meanwhile, Trump is in no rush. As Texas Republicans trip over themselves to prove who's more loyal, he’s sitting back and soaking it in—relishing the spectacle of grown men groveling for his approval.

Is another Texas Republican about to shake up the state’s Senate race?

Posted on by Alex Samuels

Rep. Wesley Hunt may be about to make an already chaotic Texas GOP Senate primary even messier.

The Houston-area congressman has reserved ad time on Fox News in the Washington, D.C., market, with the spot scheduled to air on Saturday, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Axios reports Hunt is also spending six figures on ads in the Dallas and Houston media markets—an unmistakable sign he’s eyeing a statewide run.

And this isn’t his first appearance outside his district. In April, a political action committee ran biographical ads about Hunt in cities far from Houston—including Washington, D.C., and West Palm Beach, Florida, home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago—according to the Associated Press. Medium Buying, another ad-tracking firm, says Hunt’s congressional campaign also aired spots on Newsmax in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio from July 12-18.

Rumors of Hunt running for Senate have been swirling for months. But this latest media blitz marks his clearest signal yet. Axios reports the newest ad features Hunt alongside his wife and three young children, with a voiceover declaring: “Family, faith, freedom. These are the values that define Texas, and they’re the values that define Wesley Hunt.”

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton

The message seems aimed at creating a stark contrast with Attorney General Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued front-runner who’s now going through a high-profile divorce. State Sen. Angela Paxton filed last week on “biblical grounds,” accusing her husband of adultery and saying the couple has lived apart for over a year.

Paxton didn’t exactly deny the allegations. Instead, he released a statement saying, “I could not be any more proud or grateful for the incredible family that God has blessed us with, and I remain committed to supporting our amazing children and grandchildren.”

That kind of baggage may give Hunt the opening he needs. He’s been emphasizing his military background—a time-tested selling point for Texas Republicans—and his ads have reached beyond major metros, airing in Amarillo, San Antonio, and Waco.

With Paxton mired in scandal and Sen. John Cornyn trailing badly in primary polling, Hunt could emerge as a viable alternative for Republican voters fed up with both. Cornyn, who has held his seat since 2002, still has party leadership support, but that might not be enough to carry him through a tough primary.

Sen. John Cornyn

Even Trump is holding back. According to Senate GOP sources, White House officials recently told Minority Whip John Thune that the president plans to stay neutral, at least for now. He’s waiting to see if Cornyn can close the gap before weighing in.

Meanwhile, more potential candidates are eyeing the race. Rep. Ronny Jackson—Trump’s former White House physician—is also said to be considering a bid.

And Democrats are preparing for their own fight. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who challenged Ted Cruz in 2024, has already entered the race. But other high-profile Democrats—Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke—are also considering runs, setting the stage for a possible intraparty showdown.

For now, the Republican field is fractured, the front-runner is under scrutiny, and the establishment pick is struggling. If Hunt enters, it almost guarantees a fierce primary fight. So, yes—grab your popcorn. Texas Republicans are gearing up to tear each other apart—again.

This Democrat is launching a comeback bid in Texas’ Senate race

Posted on by Alex Samuels

Former Rep. Colin Allred—a civil rights attorney, ex-lineback for the National Football League, and one of Texas Democrats’ brightest prospects—is making a comeback. About eight months after losing to Sen. Ted Cruz, Allred is jumping back into the ring, this time setting his sights on Sen. John Cornyn in 2026.

“Texans are working harder than ever, not getting as much time with their kids, missing those special moments, all to be able to afford less,” Allred said in his launch video. “And the people we elected to help—politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton—are too corrupt to care about us and too weak to fight for us.”

His message is clear: He’s not finished fighting. The video emphasizes his background and the grit it took to make it to the NFL.

“At heart, I’m still that undrafted kid, fighting for what’s right. I’m still that guy showering after work, instead of before,” Allred said—a subtle reference to his second Senate bid.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, shown in March 2024.

Texas Democrats see an opening. Cornyn is caught in a messy fight with state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the scandal-ridden MAGA hard-liner beloved by President Donald Trump’s base. A recent Texas Southern University poll showed Paxton with a 9-percentage-point lead over Cornyn in a two-way Republican primary, but only a 2-point edge over Allred in a general election matchup. That’s why Allred’s video targets both men.

Internal GOP polling reportedly confirms that Paxton is a riskier nominee in a general election. But so far, Trump has withheld his endorsement. While Paxton has been one of Trump’s most loyal defenders, Cornyn is generally seen as more electable statewide.

Still, Allred shouldn’t take the primary for granted. The Democratic field could grow quickly. Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke have all reportedly considered running. Former astronaut Terry Virts and flight attendant Mike Swanson are already in the race, though neither has gained traction.

That’s part of why top Democrats are pushing for a unified statewide slate. With more than a dozen major offices on the ballot in 2026—including governor, lieutenant governor, and Paxton’s soon-to-be-open attorney general seat—party leaders hope to avoid a contentious Senate primary and instead focus on retaking a statewide office for the first time since 1994.

Beto O'Rourke, right, hugs a supporter at a gathering during his run for governor, in Fort Worth, Texas, in March 2022.

Allred arrives with some big advantages: name recognition, national fundraising networks, and potential bipartisan appeal. During his 2024 race, he secured endorsements from prominent anti-Trump Republicans, like former Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows 37% of registered voters in the state view Allred favorably—more than Paxton (35%) or Cornyn (21%). He was also the only political figure in the poll to have a net-positive favorability, meaning more voters had a favorable view of him than had a negative view.

However, Allred has something to prove. His previous campaign was criticized for being too cautious, especially compared with the energy O’Rourke brought in 2018. Despite outraising Cruz, Allred lost by 8.5 points—though he outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who lost Texas to Trump by nearly 14 points.

This time, Allred promises a different approach. Now, free from congressional duties, Allred said in a recent interview that he plans to “run differently” in 2026—more aggressively, less cautiously.

Allred first ran for office in 2018, flipping a Dallas-area district by defeating GOP incumbent Pete Sessions. Before that, he worked at the Department of Housing and Urban Development in the Obama administration.

Now he’s betting that 2026 will finally be the year Texas flips—and that he’ll be the one to do it.

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Get your popcorn: Republicans are set to rip each other apart in Texas

Posted on by Alex Samuels

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is staring down the biggest political threat of his career: a MAGA-fueled primary challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

Paxton kicked off his Senate bid on April 8, announcing it on Fox News with host Laura Ingraham and blasting Cornyn’s “lack of production” in more than two decades on the job.

“We have another great U.S. senator, Ted Cruz, and it’s time we have another great senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas, and also support [President] Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way,” Paxton said. “And that’s what I plan on doing.”

The thing is, Cornyn has been reliably conservative and loyal to Trump. But that won’t stop this from likely turning into one of the ugliest, most expensive GOP primaries in recent Texas history—a full-on proxy war between the Republican establishment and the MAGA wing. Trump hasn’t endorsed yet, but he’s teasing that he’ll tip the scales before the March 2026 primary. 

Cornyn has all the usual advantages: establishment backing, a deep bench of donors, and nearly $1.6 million raised in just the first quarter of this year alone. Paxton jumped in after the first-quarter fundraising filing deadline, so we’ll have to wait until July to see how much he’s raised. 

But what Paxton may lack in cash, he makes up for in chaos.

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Last week, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, endorsed Cornyn with a barely veiled jab at Paxton, who’s been dogged by legal drama for years.

“John Cornyn is a leader who delivers on President Trump's agenda and for the people of Texas in the U.S. Senate,” Scott said. “He’s a proven fighter, man of faith, and essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”

Indeed, Paxton has faced securities fraud charges, was impeached by the GOP-led Texas House of Representatives for abuse-of-power allegations, and allegedly cheated on his wife. One brutal Cornyn campaign statement put it plainly: “Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

While Cornyn may not be a saint, next to Paxton, he sure looks like one. Paxton—whom Trump once called “a very talented guy”—attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the Capitol riot. He also tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, and more recently, he oversaw Texas’ first arrests under the state’s post-Roe v. Wade abortion ban. In general, he’s a walking ethics violation.

Still, Paxton has built a loyal following among the Texas GOP’s far-right base, which stood by him during his Republican-led impeachment in 2023. A January poll from the University of Houston, for instance, showed 36% of Texas GOP voters would “definitely” consider voting for him, edging out Cornyn (32%). And some polling has been even starker: A February poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates had Paxton up more than 20 percentage points over Cornyn—and, unfortunately, winning in a general election.

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas

Even Texas’ other senator isn’t backing Cornyn. Instead, Cruz is playing neutral, likely because he’s read the same surveys.

“Both John and Ken are friends of mine,” Cruz said to reporters recently. “I respect them both, and I trust the voters of Texas to make that decision.” (Translation: Cruz is hedging.)

Republican voters nominating Paxton isn’t without risks, though. 

Axios reports GOP strategists are warning Paxton could give Democrats their best shot at flipping the seat, even though Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. In 2024, former Texas Rep. Colin Allred lost to Cruz by over 8 points. (Allred is reportedly also considering a Senate run in 2026.)

Republicans are nervous enough that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is privately pushing Trump to endorse Cornyn, according to CNN.

But Cornyn’s got vulnerabilities that MAGA world loves to exploit, like how he backed aid to Ukraine and supported a bipartisan gun-reform bill after a gunman killed 19 students and two teachers at Uvalde’s Robb Elementary School. That alone might be enough for Paxton to slap him with the dreaded “RINO” label and ride away with the base.

Cornyn may have the donors, the party brass, and the resume—but in today’s GOP, that may not be enough. If Trump backs Paxton, Cornyn’s long Senate career could be toast. And if Paxton wins? Democrats may finally have a (narrow) shot at flipping a Senate seat in Texas. 

Either way, this primary is shaping up to be a MAGA-fueled circus. Pass the popcorn.

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Senate leader vote could indicate troubles ahead for Trump and MAGA

Posted on by Emily Singer

Rick Scott of Florida was ousted from the race for Senate Republican leader on Wednesday, losing on the first ballot of the race to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell.

Scott garnered just 13 votes from the 51 Republicans voting in the first round.

His poor performance came even as Scott had the endorsement of MAGA loyalists, including Elon Musk, the freak right-wing billionaire who is acting as a sort of shadow president-elect. And let’s not forget MAGA media personalities like racist 9/11 truther Laura Loomer, Russia apologist Tucker Carlson, bigot and misogynist Charlie Kirk, and plagiarist and Russia's useful idiot Benny Johnson.

“Rick Scott for Senate Majority Leader!” Musk wrote in a post on X, after Scott endorsed Trump’s demand to allow him to make recess appointments for his administration to bypass the Senate’s advice and consent role.

“Rick Scott of Florida is the only candidate who agrees with Donald Trump,” Carlson wrote in a post on X. “Call your senator and demand a public endorsement of Rick Scott."

"A vote for Rick Scott is a vote to END the anti-Trump rot of Mitch McConnell in the US Senate,” Johnson said on X. “Thune and Cornyn are a continuation of McConnell's total failure."

Those endorsements led Trump supporters to flood the phone lines of Senate Republicans, demanding that GOP senators vote for Scott in the leader race.

Alabama Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, one of the dumbest senators in history and a Scott supporter, said his office "phone has been ringing off the wall” from MAGA faithful who wanted Scott as leader.

But Scott, who was cocky in the run-up to the vote declaring that he was going to win, couldn't translate that into a victory among Senate Republicans. 

Republicans instead chose Sen. John Thune, the South Dakota Republican who currently serves as minority whip.

Thune won on the second ballot over Sen. John Cornyn of Texas by a vote of 29 to 24, Punchbowl News’ John Bresnahan reported.

Of the three men running, Thune has the rockiest relationship with Trump. Thune slammed Trump after the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021—though Thune ultimately voted against convicting Trump in the second impeachment trial for inciting insurrection. 

“What former President Trump did to undermine faith in our election system and disrupt the peaceful transfer of power is inexcusable,” Thune said at the time.

Trump was so angry at him for that remark that Trump called on Thune to face a primary, though he easily beat it back. The Wall Street Journal, however, reported in October that Thune has since been working to mend his relationship with Trump.

MAGA world is already threatening Thune to jump when Trump asks.

Kirk wrote on X: “John Thune is Senate Majority Leader. He has a short window to show us he will support President Trump, fill his cabinet, confirm his judges, and pass his agenda. If he does, we will support him. If he doesn't, we will work to remove him.”

Thune now replaces noxious Kentucky Republican McConnell, who announced in February he was stepping down from his leadership role but not the Senate itself.

McConnell is largely responsible for obliterating norms in Washington. He helped Republicans steal two Supreme Court seats from Democrats as well as a number of other federal judgeships he held vacant when Barack Obama was in office. He also used the filibuster to obstruct at a historic level and squandered the opportunity to rid the country of Trump when he refused to convict him in the Jan. 6 impeachment trial, among other things.

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The race to replace Mitch McConnell is on—and the worst one wins

Posted on by Emily Singer

Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky—who infamously stole two Supreme Court seats and refused to convict Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 insurrection—isn't leaving Congress.

But McConnell won't be Senate majority leader when the new GOP majority is sworn in in January, announcing in February that he was stepping down from the role when the new Congress is sworn in.

Republicans are now jockeying to replace him, with Sens. John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas, and Rick Scott of Florida all running for the role.

And the race is already getting ugly, with Scott working hardest to cozy up to Trump and his vile allies—including racist 9/11 truther Laura Loomer—in an effort to try to come out on top.

“I’m going to win. And here’s why. I’ve been talking to my Republican colleagues, Guess what? They want change. They know that Donald Trump has a mandate. They want to be part of that mandate. They want to be treated as equals. They want to be part of a team. They want to have a working relationship with the House,” he said in an interview with former Trump administration official and current Fox Business host Larry Kudlow on Wednesday.

On Monday, Scott also went on Fox News, saying he will end the “dictatorship” of McConnell’s long tenure as GOP leader.

People across this country are ready for change. As the next Senate Majority Leader, I’ll deliver that change. It’s time to Make Washington WORK! pic.twitter.com/GQsJQrDqNK

— Rick Scott (@ScottforFlorida) November 4, 2024

The Hill reported that Scott is seen as a long shot for the job, and that he could be ousted on the first ballot. Yet, that could change if Trump allies like Loomer are successful at getting Trump to endorse in the race. Scott appeared on Loomer’s podcast in October, after which Loomer endorsed Scott for Senate GOP leader.

“Sadly, there are a few bad people who have been around Donald Trump lately who are giving him terrible advice on who to support in this Senate GOP race so that his entire 2nd term is undermined by people who have always hated him,” Loomer wrote in a post on X, adding that Scott is “a true Trump loyalist and is someone we can trust to support Donald Trump.”  

Republicans have begged Trump to stay out of the race. However, all three candidates have been kissing up to the now president-elect in the lead up to the race, knowing that if Trump endorses it will likely help put that person over the edge.

Scott, who perpetrated one of the largest Medicare frauds in history, ran against McConnell in 2022 and lost, receiving just 10 votes from the GOP conference. But he's seen as the man closest to Trump among the three, and a Trump endorsement could change his fortunes.

Sen. John Thune of South Dakota

Thune, who is seen as the favorite in the race, has a rocky relationship with Trump, as Thune criticized Trump after he incited an insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. 

“What former President Trump did to undermine faith in our election system and disrupt the peaceful transfer of power is inexcusable,” Thune said at the time, even though he voted to acquit Trump in the impeachment trial after the insurrection. 

It led Trump to call for Thune to face a primary in Thune's reelection, though Thune easily beat back the primary opponent and won reelection.

The Wall Street Journal reported in October that Thune has been working to get back in Trump’s good graces. 

Cornyn has also been spending time with Trump during the campaign.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, a Thune backer, has publicly called on Trump not to endorse.

“I’d advise him just to stay out of the race,” Mullin told CNN.

But given Trump’s wildcard persona and inability to get over grudges, you never know what will happen.

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Morning Digest: Democratic landslide in Alabama is massive warning for GOP on IVF

Posted on by Daily Kos Elections

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Leading Off

● AL State House: Democrat Marilyn Lands defeated Republican Teddy Powell on Tuesday in a 62-37 landslide, easily prevailing in a nationally watched special election for a GOP-held seat in the Alabama House of Representatives.

Lands outperformed the 10th District's normal lean by wide margins: Donald Trump carried the district by a 49-48 spread in 2020, according to Dave's Redistricting App, while voters favored Republican David Cole over Lands 52-45 two years later.

While Republicans will still retain their supermajority in the chamber, both parties were paying close attention to see whether a recent ruling from the Alabama Supreme Court that threatened access to in vitro fertilization could be a winning issue in competitive areas like this suburban Huntsville constituency.

Lands focused intently on reproductive rights in her campaign to replace Cole, who resigned last summer after getting convicted on voter fraud charges. "It's shameful that today women have fewer freedoms than I did two decades ago," she said in one spot excoriating the state's near-total abortion ban. Lands, a mental health counselor, also argued the legislature didn't do enough to protect IVF when it passed a law earlier this month that shields clinics from liability.

Powell, a member of the City Council in Madison, adopted a very different strategy. He instead focused on issues like infrastructure and downplayed the importance of reproductive rights. "It's certainly an issue that needs to be dealt with," he told Politico, "but not our top issue. I don't think that this is the issue that wins or loses the race."

That calculus turned out to be wrong, and Lands just gave Democrats good reason to believe that Powell will be only the first of many Republicans to pay the price at the ballot box this year.

Senate

● NJ-Sen: Candidate filing closed Monday for New Jersey's June 4 primaries, and the New Jersey Globe has a list of contenders. Not everyone who turned in paperwork will necessarily make the ballot, though, since anyone can challenge the validity of a candidate's petitions.

The GOP's Senate lineup shrunk just before the deadline when former TV reporter Alex Zdan announced he was dropping out. His departure leaves developer Curtis Bashaw, who picked up Zdan's endorsement the next day, and Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner as the main Republican candidates campaigning in this solidly blue state.

Rep. Andy Kim, meanwhile, is the heavy favorite for the Democratic nomination after his top rival, former financial analyst Tammy Murphy, unexpectedly dropped out just ahead of the filing deadline.

● TX-Sen: Marist College finds Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democratic Rep. Colin Allred 51-45, with respondents favoring Donald Trump by a larger 55-44 spread. This is Marist's first look at this race, as well as the first poll we've seen here since Allred won the March 5 primary.

Governors

● IN-Gov: Republican Sen. Mike Braun made news on Friday when he missed the vote to avert a government shutdown hours after he attended a fundraiser back in Indiana, prompting one of his intra-party rivals for governor to quickly release an ad taking him to task.

Wealthy businessman Eric Doden's spot focuses on a claim by Braun's chief of staff that the senator mistakenly believed the matter would be settled the next day and therefore "decided to spend the night at home and fly out Saturday morning."

"Senator Braun: Sleeping on the job?" reads the on-screen text at the conclusion of the almost wordless commercial. Politico's Adam Wren reminds us that Braun labeled Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly "Sleepin' Joe" during his successful 2018 campaign.

House

● FL-27: EMILYs List has endorsed Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller's campaign to take on GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar. Baez-Geller faces former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey in the Aug. 20 Democratic primary for this Miami-area seat.

● TX-22: The House Ethics Committee announced Tuesday that it's investigating Republican Rep. Troy Nehls, but it did not provide any details about why. Nehls subsequently described the probe as an "inquiry into my campaign's finances," though he didn't offer further information about the allegations. The Ethics Committee has pledged to "announce its course of action in this matter" by May 10.

Nehls won renomination without opposition this month in Texas' 22nd District, a suburban Houston constituency that backed Donald Trump 57-41 in 2020.

Attorneys General

● TX-AG: Federal prosecutors announced a deal with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Tuesday under which they agreed to drop his nearly nine-year-old indictment for securities fraud as long as he pays $271,000 in restitution over the next 18 months. The agreement also requires the far-right Republican to perform 100 hours of community service, but he'll face no jail time.

The Texas Tribune, however, notes that Paxton's legal woes are not all resolved. Federal authorities reportedly are continuing to investigate whether the attorney general used his post to benefit a wealthy ally. The state House impeached Paxton last May over these allegations, only for the Senate to subsequently acquit him.

Four of Paxton's former top aides are also still suing him for allegedly retaliating against them for helping in the federal investigation. The Texas State Bar additionally brought a lawsuit for professional misconduct lawsuit against him in 2022 over his efforts to overturn the results of the last presidential election, though the case remains unresolved.

Paxton has spent the last several months working to punish the Republicans who crossed him last year. The attorney general backed a slate of legislative candidates in the March 5 primaries, several of whom ousted his enemies.

Other GOP incumbents, including state House Speaker Dade Phelan, were forced into runoffs, which will take place on May 28. Donald Trump in January joined Paxton in supporting David Covey's bid to unseat Phelan, with Trump citing the speaker's support for what he characteristically dismissed as "the Fraudulent Impeachment."

Paxton, however, has hinted that he could personally challenge an even more prominent intra-party critic next cycle rather than seek a fourth term. In September, he celebrated his acquittal by the state Senate by telling Fox he wasn't ruling out a primary bid against Sen. John Cornyn in 2026.

Paxton intensified Senate chatter last month when he responded to the news that Cornyn would seek to replace Mitch McConnell as the chamber's top Republican by tweeting, "It will be difficult for @JohnCornyn to be an effective leader since he is anti-Trump, anti-gun, and will be focused on his highly competitive primary campaign in 2026." Cornyn fired back by snarking, "Hard to run from prison, Ken," a response that lost much of its bite on Tuesday.

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So sad: Republicans fear ‘four years of revenge’ from Trump

Posted on by Laura Clawson

Republicans have spent seven years enabling Donald Trump, but they’d like your sympathy and even pity as they deal with the consequences of that.

Trump says hateful, damaging things … and Republicans are expected to answer questions about whether they support that. I mean, can you even imagine having such a hard life? If only there had been anything congressional Republicans could have done to prevent this.

“I’m under no illusions what that would be like,” Sen. John Cornyn told Politico, referring to whether Trump will win the Republican primary nomination. “If it’s Biden and Trump, I’m gonna be supporting Trump. But that’s obviously not without its challenges.” Challenges like a mob storming the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn an election? Cornyn may see it as a challenge, but he didn’t see it as worth voting to convict Trump in his second impeachment. And if Cornyn is “under no illusions” but still sees Trump as simply “a challenge” despite the frightening agenda Trump’s own staff and allies are planning, then he’s complicit.

“We have a lot of people on our side that utilize Donald Trump for their political benefit,” Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) said, people who “get really tired of answering questions about Donald Trump. And I don’t think that’s fair to the president. You don’t get the good without ... the whole package.”

They like big chunks of what Trump has done and wants to do. They just wish they could have it without all those pesky questions.

Other Republicans are afraid of retaliation. This is not a party filled with the most courageous people.

Still, Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) said plenty in the GOP dread Trump’s return to the political spotlight but “everybody is being more private about it.”

“I wouldn’t expect him to be different,” Simpson said, adding that many colleagues worry about “four years of revenge … we just have to wait and see.”

Again, if only there were anything they could have done to avoid ending up at this point. Who could have predicted that seven years of defending him, pretending not to have heard about his worst offenses, purging their party of his critics, and trying to help him overturn an election would end up with Trump poised to be the Republican presidential nominee again?

Even Trump’s critics within the party are trying to downplay the damage he does. Trump’s statements and social media posts are “almost a stream of consciousness,” according to Sen. Bill Cassidy, one of the Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment. According to Cassidy, the situation now is “analogous to when every day he would tweet, and 99 percent of the time it never came to anything.” Okay, but even if we take that 99% number as truth, the 1% helped incite a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Even Sen. Mitt Romney, perhaps Trump’s strongest Republican critic in the Senate, is trying to fool himself or us about the damage Trump does. “He says a lot of stuff that he has no intention of actually doing,” Romney told Politico. “At some point, you stop getting worried about what he says and recognize: We’ll see what he does.” Hate speech is also damaging on its own, though. Inciting supporters to violence against political opponents or the media is a thing Trump is doing through what he says.

Republicans made Donald Trump. They kept propping him up, and they still do. They would deserve what they get at his hands—only he’ll be doing so much more damage to the rest of the country.

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House Republican extremists look like they want a government shutdown

Posted on by Joan McCarter

We are in September now, which means the government-shutdown stopwatch is ticking. This congressional calendar is even more fraught than usual because there’s just so much that Congress needs to do—and yet, House Republican extremists remain intent on creating chaos. Making matters worse, the House remains on vacation this week, and has scheduled only 12 legislative days before the fiscal year ends and government funding expires on Oct. 1.

Government funding isn’t the only thing that’s supposed to be accomplished in the next three weeks. The end of September is also the deadline for the high-stakes farm bill and a reauthorization bill—the legislation that governs how funds are supposed to be spent by agencies—for the Federal Aviation Administration. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is running out of money and needs a cash infusion to keep responding to the recent disasters in Hawaii and Florida, much less what the remainder of hurricane and wildfire season may bring.

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A few weeks ago, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy floated a possible deal with Democrats to pass a short-term funding bill to keep the government running while Congress continues to work on the regular appropriations bills. At least one hard-line Republican, Georgia’s Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, has declared she won’t vote for it unless the House first votes to begin impeaching President Joe Biden.

Rep. Chip Roy of Texas is joining in, not necessarily on impeaching Biden as a condition of funding the government, but more so in opposition to having a functioning government. On Monday, Texas Sen. John Cornyn tweeted about the impending shutdown, obliquely chastising the House Republicans for being “universes” apart from Senate Republicans on funding government. Roy quickly responded by saying that Republicans shouldn’t fund “the things they campaign against - and then just shrug… border… DOJ weaponization… DOD wokeness… IRS abuse… COVID tyranny.”

That’s left McCarthy weakly arguing that if they shut down the government, then they won’t be able to keep investigating Biden. “If we shut down, all of government shuts down — investigation and everything else. It hurts the American public,” he said.

The White House has asked for a short-term continuing resolution, which is the only viable solution at this point to keep the government open. The Senate—Democrats and many Republicans—are on board. So now it all boils down to whether McCarthy will finally buck Republican extremists and work with Democrats on a stopgap bill to extend current levels of funding and likely add additional funding for disaster relief and Ukraine support.

The far-right justices on Wisconsin's Supreme Court just can't handle the fact that liberals now have the majority for the first time in 15 years, so they're in the throes of an ongoing meltdown—and their tears are delicious. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drink up all the schadenfreude they can handle as they puncture conservative claims that their progressive colleagues are "partisan hacks" (try looking in the mirror) or are breaking the law (try reading the state constitution). Elections do indeed have consequences!

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