Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills officially launched her campaign to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins on Tuesday, with a video highlighting her opposition to President Donald Trump, who she characterized as a “bully.”
In the campaign video, Mills highlighted her comment of “see you in court” to Trump at a February meeting in the White House. The statement was in response to Trump attempting to berate Mills for opposing his administration’s attempt to ban transgender children from participating in school sports.
Trump attempted to withhold federal funding from Maine over the issue but in April a federal judge ordered the Department of Agriculture to pay out the money to the state.
“We stood up to Trump and stopped him from cutting the school lunch program for Maine kids,” Mills says in her ad, before going on to criticize Collins for letting “bullies like Trump have their way.”
Collins has long presented herself as a moderate representing Maine’s mix of Democratic and Republican voters but has often allied herself with the right wing. She declined to vote to remove Trump from office in 2020 despite the House majority agreeing that he had committed high crimes. Collins also voted to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh, whose vote led to the eventual repeal of Roe v. Wade and the loss of abortion rights for millions of Americans.
Mills is not alone in challenging Collins. Oyster farmer Graham Platner is also running for the Democratic Party’s Senate nomination and has attracted the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders.
A Zenith Research poll of Maine voters conducted Oct.7-10 found both Mills and Platner polling ahead of Collins, with Platner ahead by 14 and Mills up 8.
In Morning Consult’s tracking poll of governors around the country, Mills was the most unpopular Democratic governor—but her approval rating of 49% to 46% disapproval is leagues ahead of Collins, who has a 38% approval rating and 54% disapproval.
Maine is traditionally considered a Democratic-leaning state and former Vice President Kamala Harris won it in the 2024 election. Collins has been one of the top targets of the Democratic Party and the party’s Senate campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has been criticizing Collins for siding with her fellow Republicans to shut down the federal government.
“Collins is shutting down the government instead of working to address the health care crisis she helped create, and in 2026 Mainers will hold her accountable at the ballot box,” DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle said in a September statement.
Imagine running for higher office, only to have your own party tell you that it’s selfish and that they don’t want you as a colleague. That’s basically what happened to GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas.
On Monday, Hunt announced that he’s jumping into the already crowded GOP Senate primary, taking on both Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
GOP Sen. John Cornyn of Texas
“The U.S. Senate race in Texas must be about more than a petty feud between two men who have spent months trading barbs,” Hunt said in a statement announcing his bid. “With my candidacy, this race will finally be about what’s most important: Texas.”
In an interview with The Associated Press, Hunt added that polling shows that “people want an alternative, and I’m going to give it to them.”
But the numbers don’t really back that up. Cornyn has clawed back what was once a massive polling gap with Paxton, and Hunt’s entry could make things even messier.
“The time is NOW,” Hunt wrote on X, alongside a campaign video heavy on testimonials from his wife, brother, and military colleagues—plus footage of him with President Donald Trump. Neither Cornyn nor Paxton was mentioned.
Hunt, a close Trump ally, has been laying the groundwork to join the Senate race for months. While he’s mostly stayed out of the Cornyn-Paxton fight in public, he and groups tied to him have poured more than $6 million into ads boosting his profile statewide. And his allies say that he’s a better match for the MAGA base than Cornyn—without all of Paxton’s legal baggage.
His entry upends what’s already one of the most volatile Senate primaries of 2026—and it could all but guarantee a runoff.
GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas with President Donald Trump
But not everyone’s thrilled.
GOP leaders have made it clear that they’d rather Hunt stay in the House. Top Republicans—including those on the National Republican Senatorial Committee—have warned that his campaign would be a “vanity project” that wastes money and risks the party’s Senate majority.
“This is not a vanity project. This is about giving the people of Texas a viable alternative,” Hunt told the AP. “Let’s stop the exercise in futility and get the right person for the job.”
Still, the NRSC doubled down on Monday, openly siding with Cornyn.
“John Cornyn is a battle-tested conservative who continues to be a leader in delivering President Trump’s agenda in the U.S. Senate,” NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez said. “Now that Wesley has chosen personal ambition over holding President Trump’s House Majority, there will be a full vetting of his record. Senator Cornyn’s conservative record of accomplishment stands tall against Wesley’s.”
Both have been chasing Trump’s endorsement—something that Hunt will now also have to compete for. The president hasn’t yet made his pick.
A 43-year-old former Army captain, Hunt will also have to introduce himself to voters outside of his Houston-area district to overcome Cornyn’s and Paxton’s statewide name recognition. And he’s up against serious money: Cornyn’s operation pulled in $3.9 million last quarter, while Paxton raised $2.9 million. Hunt, however, brought in just over $400,000.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton
According to The Texas Tribune, Cornyn allies have already spent roughly $19 million on ads, most of which tout his pro-Trump voting record and attack Paxton’s scandals—including the revelation that Paxton improperly claimed multiple homes as his primary residence to obtain better mortgage rates.
Meanwhile, Paxton hasn’t yet spent big on ads, but his personal drama looms large, having survived both an impeachment effort and a federal corruption probe. His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, recently filed for divorce and accused him of adultery—deepening concerns about his electability.
Recent polling shows Cornyn narrowing Paxton’s lead, with Hunt polling third in a three-way race but pulling votes from both rivals. In a one-on-one matchup, internal polling shared with Punchbowl News showed Hunt performing better—likely enough to force a runoff if he finishes second in March.
Hunt’s decision to run also opens his solidly Republican 38th Congressional District, which backed Trump by 20 points in 2024. Between retirements and Texas’ new GOP-tilted districts, that’s at least seven open seats that could be up for grabs—ensuring pricey and chaotic primaries across the state.
On the Democratic side, the primary is also heating up. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who narrowly lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, faces state Rep. James Talarico, a rising progressive star known for fighting Texas’ mid-decade redistricting.
Senate GOP leadership remains firmly behind Cornyn, with a top Super PAC already spending more than $8 million to protect him. But for now, the biggest question is whether Trump will step in or stay out long enough to let his allies tear each other apart.
Get your popcorn ready. Texas Republicans are in for one brutal brawl.
Republican Nate Morris had deftly warmed up a crowd of party faithful, gushing about President Donald Trump and recounting his own life’s journey — from hardscrabble childhood to wealthy entrepreneur — when he turned his attention to the man he wants to replace, Sen. Mitch McConnell.
That's when things got feisty. While bashing Kentucky's longest-serving senator at a GOP dinner on the eve of Saturday's Fancy Farm picnic, a tradition-laden stop on the state's political circuit, Morris was cut off in midsentence by a party activist in the crowd, who noted that McConnell isn't seeking reelection and pointedly asked Morris: “What are you running on?”
Morris touted his hard line stance on immigration and defended Trump's tariffs as a boon for American manufacturing. But he didn't retreat from his harsh critique of McConnell.
“We’ve seen 40 years of doing it the same way," Morris said. "And, yes, he’s not on the ballot, but his legacy is on the ballot. Do you want 40 more years of that? I don’t think you do.”
McConnell's blunt-force approach used against him
The pushback from a county GOP chairman revealed the political risks of attacking the 83-year-old McConnell in the twilight of his career. Towering over Kentucky politics for decades, McConnell is regarded as the master strategist behind the GOP's rise to power in a state long dominated by Democrats. The state Republican headquarters bears McConnell's name. As the longest-serving Senate party leader in U.S. history, McConnell guided Republican policymaking and helped forge a conservative Supreme Court. Back home, his appropriating skills showered Kentucky with federal funding.
Now, his blunt-force style of campaigning — which undercut so many foes — is being used against him.
Morris is running against two other prominent Republicans — U.S. Rep. Andy Barr and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron — for McConnell's seat. The outcome will be decided in the spring primary next year. Kentucky hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since Wendell Ford in 1992.
All three Republican hopefuls lavish praise on Trump — in hopes of landing his endorsement — but also have ties to McConnell, who mentored generations of aspirational Republicans. Cameron and Barr have chided McConnell at times, but it's been mild compared to Morris' attacks. Morris interned for McConnell but glosses over that connection.
McConnell pushes back
Mitch McConnell and his wife, Elaine Chao, acknowledge applause at the annual Fancy Farm picnic on Aug. 2 in Fancy Farm, Ky.
At events surrounding the Fancy Farm picnic, an event long known for caustic zingers that he has always relished, McConnell showed no sign of backing down.
“Surely this isn’t true, but I’ve heard that one of the candidates running for my office wants to be different,” McConnell told a Republican crowd that included Morris at a pre-picnic breakfast in Mayfield. “Now, I’m wondering how you’d want to be different from the longest-serving Senate leader in American history. I’m wondering how you’d want to be different in supporting President Trump.”
McConnell received multiple standing ovations. Morris stayed seated.
McConnell has consistently voted for Trump's policies more often than Kentucky's other Republican senator, Rand Paul, according to a Congressional Quarterly voting analysis. McConnell recently supported Trump's signature tax and spending measure. Paul opposed it, saying it would drive up debt.
McConnell teamed with Trump to put conservatives on the federal bench and pass tax cuts during the president's first term. McConnell also guided the Senate — and Trump — through two impeachment trials that ended in acquittals. But the relationship was severed after McConnell blamed Trump for “disgraceful” acts in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack by Trump's supporters.
Morris, who started a waste management technology company, says the senator has been insufficiently loyal to Trump and allowed festering issues like immigration and the national debt to grow worse during his years in Senate leadership.
Morris wants to tether his opponents to McConnell while running on anti-establishment themes that his campaign thinks will appeal to legions of Trump supporters in the Bluegrass State.
Nate Morris speaks at the annual Fancy Farm picnic on Aug. 2 in Fancy Farm, Ky.
“Let’s face it, folks, career politicians have run this country off a cliff,” Morris said.
Morris' rivals sum up the anti-McConnell attacks as an angry, backward-looking message. Cameron called it a diversionary tactic to obscure what he said is Morris' lack of both a message and credibility as a supporter of Trump's MAGA movement.
"He can’t talk about his actual record. So he has to choose to pick on an 83-year-old,” Cameron said.
At Fancy Farm, where candidates hurl insults at one another against a backdrop of bingo games and barbecue feasts, Morris took a swipe at McConnell's health.
“I have a serious question: who here can honestly tell me that it’s a good thing to have a senior citizen who freezes on national television during his press conferences as our U.S. senator?” Morris said. "It seems, to me, maybe just maybe, Mitch’s time to leave the Senate was a long time ago."
McConnell had his customary front-row seat for much of the event but wasn't there for Morris' remarks. He typically leaves before all the speeches are delivered and exited before his would-be successors spoke.
Living by the sword
McConnell complimented Trump in his speech, singling out Trump's bombing of Iranian nuclear sites.
“He turned Iran's nuclear program into a pile of rocks,” McConnell, a steadfast advocate for a muscular U.S. foreign policy, said to cheers.
At the GOP dinner the night before in Calvert City, where candidates typically are more politely received, party activist Frank Amaro confronted Morris for his anti-McConnell barrage.
“He keeps bashing Mitch McConnell like he’s running against Mitch McConnell,” Amaro, a county Republican chairman, said afterward. “Overall, he’s helped Kentucky and the United States, especially our Supreme Court, more than any other U.S. senator in this country.”
But Morris' blistering assessment of McConnell hit the mark with Trump supporter Patrick Marion, who applied the dreaded Republican-in-Name-Only label to McConnell.
“Personally, I think Mitch has been a RINO for way too long,” Marion said later. “I don't think he was a true MAGA supporter of President Trump.”
Afterward, Morris was in no mood to back off.
“He’s the nastiest politician maybe in the history of this state if not in the history of this country,” Morris said of McConnell. "Look, you live by the sword, you die by the sword.”
Rep. Wesley Hunt may be about to make an already chaotic Texas GOP Senate primary even messier.
The Houston-area congressman has reserved ad time on Fox News in the Washington, D.C., market, with the spot scheduled to air on Saturday, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Axios reports Hunt is also spending six figures on ads in the Dallas and Houston media markets—an unmistakable sign he’s eyeing a statewide run.
And this isn’t his first appearance outside his district. In April, a political action committee ran biographical ads about Hunt in cities far from Houston—including Washington, D.C., and West Palm Beach, Florida, home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago—according to the Associated Press. Medium Buying, another ad-tracking firm, says Hunt’s congressional campaign also aired spots on Newsmax in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio from July 12-18.
Rumors of Hunt running for Senate have been swirling for months. But this latest media blitz marks his clearest signal yet. Axios reports the newest ad features Hunt alongside his wife and three young children, with a voiceover declaring: “Family, faith, freedom. These are the values that define Texas, and they’re the values that define Wesley Hunt.”
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton
The message seems aimed at creating a stark contrast with Attorney General Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued front-runner who’s now going through a high-profile divorce. State Sen. Angela Paxton filed last week on “biblical grounds,” accusing her husband of adultery and saying the couple has lived apart for over a year.
Paxton didn’t exactly deny the allegations. Instead, he released a statement saying, “I could not be any more proud or grateful for the incredible family that God has blessed us with, and I remain committed to supporting our amazing children and grandchildren.”
That kind of baggage may give Hunt the opening he needs. He’s been emphasizing his military background—a time-tested selling point for Texas Republicans—and his ads have reached beyond major metros, airing in Amarillo, San Antonio, and Waco.
With Paxton mired in scandal and Sen. John Cornyn trailing badly in primary polling, Hunt could emerge as a viable alternative for Republican voters fed up with both. Cornyn, who has held his seat since 2002, still has party leadership support, but that might not be enough to carry him through a tough primary.
Sen. John Cornyn
Even Trump is holding back. According to Senate GOP sources, White House officials recently told Minority Whip John Thune that the president plans to stay neutral, at least for now. He’s waiting to see if Cornyn can close the gap before weighing in.
Meanwhile, more potential candidates are eyeing the race. Rep. Ronny Jackson—Trump’s former White House physician—is also said to be considering a bid.
And Democrats are preparing for their own fight. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who challenged Ted Cruz in 2024, has already entered the race. But other high-profile Democrats—Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke—are also considering runs, setting the stage for a possible intraparty showdown.
For now, the Republican field is fractured, the front-runner is under scrutiny, and the establishment pick is struggling. If Hunt enters, it almost guarantees a fierce primary fight. So, yes—grab your popcorn. Texas Republicans are gearing up to tear each other apart—again.
Former Rep. Colin Allred—a civil rights attorney, ex-lineback for the National Football League, and one of Texas Democrats’ brightest prospects—is making a comeback. About eight months after losing to Sen. Ted Cruz, Allred is jumping back into the ring, this time setting his sights on Sen. John Cornyn in 2026.
“Texans are working harder than ever, not getting as much time with their kids, missing those special moments, all to be able to afford less,” Allred said in his launch video. “And the people we elected to help—politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton—are too corrupt to care about us and too weak to fight for us.”
His message is clear: He’s not finished fighting. The video emphasizes his background and the grit it took to make it to the NFL.
“At heart, I’m still that undrafted kid, fighting for what’s right. I’m still that guy showering after work, instead of before,” Allred said—a subtle reference to his second Senate bid.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, shown in March 2024.
Texas Democrats see an opening. Cornyn is caught in a messy fight with state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the scandal-riddenMAGA hard-linerbeloved by President Donald Trump’s base. A recent Texas Southern University poll showed Paxton with a 9-percentage-point lead over Cornyn in a two-way Republican primary, but only a 2-point edge over Allred in a general election matchup. That’s why Allred’s video targets both men.
Internal GOP polling reportedly confirms that Paxton is a riskier nominee in a general election. But so far, Trump has withheld his endorsement. While Paxton has been one of Trump’s most loyal defenders, Cornyn is generally seen as more electable statewide.
Still, Allred shouldn’t take the primary for granted. The Democratic field could grow quickly. Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke have all reportedly considered running. Former astronaut Terry Virts and flight attendant Mike Swanson are already in the race, though neither has gained traction.
That’s part of why top Democrats are pushing for a unified statewide slate. With more than a dozen major offices on the ballot in 2026—including governor, lieutenant governor, and Paxton’s soon-to-be-open attorney general seat—party leaders hope to avoid a contentious Senate primary and instead focus on retaking a statewide office for the first time since 1994.
Beto O'Rourke, right, hugs a supporter at a gathering during his run for governor, in Fort Worth, Texas, in March 2022.
Allred arrives with some big advantages: name recognition, national fundraising networks, and potential bipartisan appeal. During his 2024 race, he secured endorsements from prominent anti-Trump Republicans, like former Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows 37% of registered voters in the state view Allred favorably—more than Paxton (35%) or Cornyn (21%). He was also the only political figure in the poll to have a net-positive favorability, meaning more voters had a favorable view of him than had a negative view.
However, Allred has something to prove. His previous campaign was criticized for being too cautious, especially compared with the energy O’Rourke brought in 2018. Despite outraising Cruz, Allred lost by 8.5 points—though he outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who lost Texas to Trump by nearly 14 points.
This time, Allred promises a different approach. Now, free from congressional duties, Allred said in a recent interview that he plans to “run differently” in 2026—more aggressively, less cautiously.
Allred first ran for office in 2018, flipping a Dallas-area district by defeating GOP incumbent Pete Sessions. Before that, he worked at the Department of Housing and Urban Development in the Obama administration.
Now he’s betting that 2026 will finally be the year Texas flips—and that he’ll be the one to do it.
Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is somewhat open to caucusing with Democrats—under the right conditions.
In a newly released clip of a forthcoming interview with the podcast GD Politics, Murkowski said there’s a “possibility” she could become an independent and align with Democrats if they flip the Senate in 2026.
“There may be that possibility,” she said. “There is some openness to exploring something different than the status quo.”
Still, she made clear it wouldn’t be a wholesale shift. Murkowski said she’d make the move only if it served Alaskans and didn’t require her to fully embrace the Democratic platform.
“As challenged as I think we may be on the Republican side, I don’t see the Democrats being much better,” she added. “I have to figure out how I can be most effective for the people that I serve.”
The comments arrive shortly before Tuesday’s release of her memoir, “Far from Home”—a fitting title for someone who splits her time between Washington, D.C., and Alaska, and often feels out of step with today’s GOP.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska gestures as she leaves the Senate chamber after the vote on witnesses during the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump at the U.S. Capitol in January 2020.
According to CBS News, the book focuses on her life as a centrist in an increasingly polarized Congress. In 2002, Murkowski’s father, who was then Alaska’s new governor, appointed her to fill his vacant Senate seat—something she’s called “accurate” nepotism. But she went on to win a full term, and in 2010, she pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in Senate history: winning reelection as a write-in candidate after losing her GOP primary to a more right-wing challenger.
“It’s a daily reminder of how I was returned to the United States Senate. It was not through the help or the assistance of the Republican Party; it was through the hope and the assistance and the persistence of Alaskans all across the board,” she told CBS.
In a new interview with Semafor, Murkowski admitted she’s thought about jumping ship from the Republican Party—if only because people keep asking her to.
“I would be not being honest with you if I said I’ve never been asked … ‘Why don’t you switch?’” she said. “Have I considered it? Yes, because I’ve been asked the question.”
It’s no mystery why. Murkowski has built a reputation as one of the few Republicans willing to break ranks. She voted against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, supported some of former President Joe Biden’s court nominees, and has openly criticized her colleagues’ deference to President Donald Trump. She’s also been candid about her party’s fear of challenging tech billionaire Elon Musk during his time in the Trump administration, citing concerns that he might fund primary challenges.
As recently as December, Murkowski said she’s more comfortable without any party label at all.
“I’d rather be that person that is just known for trying to do right by the state and the people that I serve, regardless of party, and I’m totally good and comfortable with that,” she said.
But don’t expect a sudden switch. In that same December interview, Murkowski emphasized that she’s “still a Republican” and has “never shed my party label.”
Plus, according to her interview with GD Politics, cooperation with Democrats would largely depend on them getting to 50 seats in the Senate—something that’s far from certain. Currently, Democrats have 47 seats, and 50 would mean that Republicans still have control of the chamber since a tie gets broken by the vice president, Republican JD Vance. If Murkowski caucused with Democrats in such a scenario, though, it would flip the chamber’s control to that party.
And despite her turbulent history with Trump—he backed a challenge against her in 2022—Murkowski told Semafor the two recently had a “very pleasant” call. She’s also weighing her vote on the GOP’s new tax bill, further proof that, for now, her Republican credentials remain intact.
If Democrats want to bring Murkowski into the fold, they’ll need more than wishful thinking. It’ll take Senate gains—and a party flexible enough to accommodate a center-right maverick.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is staring down the biggest political threat of his career: a MAGA-fueled primary challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Paxton kicked off his Senate bid on April 8, announcing it on Fox News with host Laura Ingraham and blasting Cornyn’s “lack of production” in more than two decades on the job.
“We have another great U.S. senator, Ted Cruz, and it’s time we have another great senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas, and also support [President] Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way,” Paxton said. “And that’s what I plan on doing.”
The thing is, Cornyn has been reliably conservative and loyal to Trump. But that won’t stop this from likely turning into one of the ugliest, most expensive GOP primaries in recent Texas history—a full-on proxy war between the Republican establishment and the MAGA wing. Trump hasn’t endorsed yet, but he’s teasing that he’ll tip the scales before the March 2026 primary.
Cornyn has all the usual advantages: establishment backing, a deep bench of donors, and nearly $1.6 million raised in just the first quarter of this year alone. Paxton jumped in after the first-quarter fundraising filing deadline, so we’ll have to wait until July to see how much he’s raised.
But what Paxton may lack in cash, he makes up for in chaos.
Last week, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, endorsed Cornyn with a barely veiled jab at Paxton, who’s been dogged by legal drama for years.
“John Cornyn is a leader who delivers on President Trump's agenda and for the people of Texas in the U.S. Senate,” Scott said. “He’s a proven fighter, man of faith, and essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”
Indeed, Paxton has faced securities fraud charges, was impeached by the GOP-led Texas House of Representatives for abuse-of-power allegations, and allegedly cheated on his wife. One brutal Cornyn campaign statement put it plainly: “Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”
While Cornyn may not be a saint, next to Paxton, he sure looks like one. Paxton—whom Trump once called “a very talented guy”—attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the Capitol riot. He also tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, and more recently, he oversaw Texas’ first arrests under the state’s post-Roe v. Wade abortion ban. In general, he’s a walking ethics violation.
Still, Paxton has built a loyal following among the Texas GOP’s far-right base, which stood by him during his Republican-led impeachment in 2023. A January poll from the University of Houston, for instance, showed 36% of Texas GOP voters would “definitely” consider voting for him, edging out Cornyn (32%). And some polling has been even starker: A February poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates had Paxton up more than 20 percentage points over Cornyn—and, unfortunately, winning in a general election.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas
Even Texas’ other senator isn’t backing Cornyn. Instead, Cruz is playing neutral, likely because he’s read the same surveys.
“Both John and Ken are friends of mine,” Cruz said to reporters recently. “I respect them both, and I trust the voters of Texas to make that decision.” (Translation: Cruz is hedging.)
Republican voters nominating Paxton isn’t without risks, though.
Axios reportsGOP strategists are warning Paxton could give Democrats their best shot at flipping the seat, even though Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. In 2024, former Texas Rep. Colin Allred lost to Cruz by over 8 points. (Allred is reportedly also considering a Senate run in 2026.)
Republicans are nervous enough that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is privately pushing Trump to endorse Cornyn, according to CNN.
But Cornyn’s got vulnerabilities that MAGA world loves to exploit, like how he backed aid to Ukraine and supported a bipartisan gun-reform bill after a gunman killed 19 students and two teachers at Uvalde’s Robb Elementary School. That alone might be enough for Paxton to slap him with the dreaded “RINO” label and ride away with the base.
Cornyn may have the donors, the party brass, and the resume—but in today’s GOP, that may not be enough. If Trump backs Paxton, Cornyn’s long Senate career could be toast. And if Paxton wins? Democrats may finally have a (narrow) shot at flipping a Senate seat in Texas.
Either way, this primary is shaping up to be a MAGA-fueled circus. Pass the popcorn.
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution says, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
Seems pretty clear-cut, right?
But read carefully—”no person shall be elected” to the office. And therein lies the keys to Donald Trump’s fantasies of a third term, saying to NBC’s Kristen Welker on Sunday, “There are methods which you could do it.”
So how exactly would Trump become president without being elected president?
Is Vance loyal enough to give up his hard-earned power were he to win the presidency?
One way, Trump said, would be to swap tickets with Vice President JD Vance. He would run on a ticket with Vance and get elected vice president. Then, Vance would give up the office out of the goodness of his heart and resign, or maybe Trump would just shiv him, who knows. Trump wouldn’t care either way. Regardless, he would then become president.
Except that won’t work.
The 12th Amendment says, “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.”
Well, that seems pretty clear-cut, doesn’t it? Unfortunately, that’s not the only avenue for Trump to try and sneak in.
We’ve already noted that the first is clearly off the table. However, the rest are not.
The Constitution doesn’t actually set requirements for speaker of the House, saying only, “The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.”
While every speaker has been a member of the House, it’s clear that there’s nothing requiring that to be the case. Hence, a Republican House could simply elect Trump as speaker, and then elevate him after both the president and the vice president resigned to pave his return to power.
A plain text reading of the Constitution makes this absolutely possible, though the courts would have to wrestle with the intent of both the 12th and the 22nd Amendments—which collectively make clear that really, two presidential terms is enough. But in this case, Trump wouldn’t be elected to the presidency, he would be elevated to the job.
The more practical impediment to this scenario is that two people would now need to surrender their chances to be president of the United States so fucking Trump could continue trashing the country and the world. People don’t want that, not even Republicans, and that’s before Trump’s policies really do a number on our economy.
Not to mention, those two people will both have gone through a grueling national campaign, won the votes of tens of millions, and for what? To quit and give it all up right after taking the oath to office?
Moving down the list, president pro tempore of the Senate is supposed to preside over the Senate in the absence of the vice president (hence the Latin “for the time being”), which the Constitution pretends is the president of the Senate (and in practice, just means a tie-breaking vote if necessary).
Like the House speaker, the Constitution doesn’t provide any qualifications for the role, so by tradition, the majority party picks its oldest member for the mostly ceremonial position. It is currently Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley.
Presumably a Republican Senate could pick Trump as president pro tempore. But that would require the House to be in Republican hands as well, otherwise a Democratic speaker would ascend to the top. At that point, assuming the whole Republican Party is singing from the same choir book, it would just be easier for the House to make him speaker.
And finally, there’s that secretary of state job. Imagine Trump as secretary of state? Dear god. In any case, it would be a short-term charade. But now you’re talking about four people giving up their chance to be president—the elected president, the elected vice president, the speaker of the House, and the president pro tempore of the Senate. Trump may be deluded enough to think that many people would clear the path for him, but that would fly in the face of human nature. A not-president Trump would have zero leverage over an actual president.
And of course, that’s still assuming that the effort would survive legal challenges based on the 22nd Amendment. After all, it’s clear what the framers of that amendment intended—to prevent another Franklin D. Roosevelt from happening. That is, to prevent another president from entrenching themselves in the Oval Office.
But it does say a lot about Trump that rather than focus on the job at hand, he’s obsessing over a third term. He wants power for the sake of power itself, jealous of despots like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Of course, he’s going to indulge in these sorts of fantasies.
President Donald Trump has done nothing but inflict harm and terror since reentering the White House in January, and history suggests he’ll face a backlash in the 2026 midterm elections.
Historically, the president’s party usually loses congressional seats in midterm elections. In 2018, halfway through Trump’s first presidency, the public slapped the Republican Party with a 40-seat loss in the House, ultimately leading to years of hearings and two impeachments. In 2022, while Democrats beat expectations, they still lost enough House seats to slip into the minority. Ironically, that bodes well for their chances of retaking the House in 2026, especially given their dominance in a recent special election.
However, the Senate is another matter entirely.
This past week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report released its early Senate ratings for the midterms, which suggest the GOP majority will be impenetrable.
Republicans hold 22 seats that are up for reelection, and 19 are listed as solidly Republican, meaning those seats are all but certain to remain in the GOP’s hands (short of a miracle or a Mark Robinson-type figure running). An Ohio seat held by Sen. Jon Husted, who replaced Vice President JD Vance, is rated as “likely” Republican, meaning Democrats have a chance, if a slim one, of picking it up. After all, the party hasn’t won a statewide race in Ohio since 2018.
But two races “lean” toward Republicans, according to Cook. That means they should be the best pickup opportunities for Democrats. They are held by Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. While the races could be grabbable, Collins won her 2020 reelection by 8.6 percentage points, despite that Democrat Joe Biden won Maine by 9 points in that same election. Meanwhile, Trump has carried North Carolina thrice.
There’s also Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who looks likely to retire. But he represents a deep-red state that Trump carried by more than 30 points in 2024.
Worse, in the 2026 same midterm, Democrats face a tough Senate landscape. According to Cook, the party will defend two “toss-up” seats, and both are in states Trump won last year: Georgia (Sen. Jon Ossoff) and Michigan (an open seat now that Sen. Gary Peters is retiring).
Then there’s Minnesota. Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced on Thursday that she would not seek reelection. Of course, Democrats have a deep bench of good prospective candidates for this seat, and Cook rates it as a “Likely Democratic” seat, but the party will no longer have the advantage of an incumbent running and Republicans will probably spend big on the race.
Democratic Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota
Democrats also face a potentially competitive race in New Hampshire. While incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen comfortably defeated her Republican opponent by nearly 16 points in 2020, Trump came within 3 points of winning the state in 2024. Due to that, Cook rates the seat as only “Lean Democrat.”
What complicates matters further for Democrats is that their toss-up and “lean” seats are arguably more vulnerable than either of the “Lean R” seats held by Republicans. That means the odds are higher that the GOP will keep or even increase its Senate majority in 2026.
It’s also important that Democrats don’t lose sight of other states where the president came within 10 points of winning in 2024: New Jersey (Sen. Cory Booker), New Mexico (Sen. Ben Ray Luján), and Virginia (Sen. Mark Warner). While Cook rates these seats as “Solid Democratic,” the party should at least be cautious and, at the very least, not express annoyance toward voters who simply want them to put up a fight.
Indeed, Democrats will have a lot on their plate in 2026. And it doesn’t help that polls show their voters aren’t too pleased with them, while Trump 2025 is so far stronger than he was in 2017. As CNN reported earlier this week, Trump’s second-term approval rating had been in the green for his entire term so far—while he had only 11 such net-positive days during his first term.
The good news, of course, is that Democrats are primed to take back the House due to Republicans’ precarious majority, which currently sits at 218 seats to Democrats’ 215. (Two vacancies, previously held by Republicans, are expected to go to the GOP once their special elections happen.) Unseating the GOP’s House majority will be especially easy if Trump’s approval fades (as it should) and if people turn on his policies.
But even if Democrats retake the House, that would make for a divided Congress, and the Senate arguably matters more. A compliant, GOP-controlled Senate will steadily confirm Trump’s judicial appointments (including potential Supreme Court vacancies). Trump likes to keep score, too, so he will likely try to confirm more judges than Biden did when Democrats had control of the Senate.
Still, a divided Congress is better than a united Republican-led Congress that’s slinging a wrecking ball into the federal government.
The race to confirm Donald Trump’s nightmare Cabinet has entered its final stretch: Senate confirmation hearings.
Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is Trump’s nominee for attorney general and returns to the hot seat Thursday as her confirmation hearing enters its second day. The ride-or-die Trump ally defended the former president during his first impeachment trial and was at the forefront of his efforts to steal the 2020 election that he lost to President Joe Biden.
Highlights from the first day of Bondi’s hearing include her lying about Trump’s well-documented attempt to pressure Georgia Secretary of State to “find 11,780 votes” to help him win the state in 2020, as well as refusing—multiple times—to admit that Trump lost to Biden in 2020.
Bondi’s hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee begins its second day at 10:15 AM ET Thurssday. Read her opening statement here.
