Biden is targeting Trump’s ‘extremist movement’ as he makes democracy a touchtone in reelection bid

President Joe Biden is ready to argue “there is something dangerous happening in America” during a speech in Arizona on Thursday as he revives his warnings that Donald Trump and his allies represent an existential threat to the country's democratic institutions.

“There is an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs of our democracy. The MAGA movement,” Biden says in excerpts of the speech released in advance by the White House, referring Trump's Make America Great Again slogan.

Although voting in the 2024 Republican primary doesn't begin for months, Biden's focus reflects Trump's status as the undisputed frontrunner for his party's nomination despite facing four indictments, two of them related to his attempts to overturn Biden’s victory in the 2020 election.

Biden's speech is his fourth in a series of presidential addresses on the topic, a cause that is a touchstone for him as he tries to remain in office even in the face of low approval ratings and widespread concern from voters about his age, 80.

He's also facing fresh pressure on Capitol Hill, where House Republicans are holding the first hearing in their impeachment inquiry.

On the first anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, Biden visited the Capitol and accused Trump of continuing to hold a “dagger” at democracy’s throat. Biden closed out the summer that year in the shadow of Philadelphia’s Independence Hall, decrying Trumpism as a menace to democratic institutions.

And in November, as voters were casting ballots in the midterm elections, Biden again sounded a clarion call to protect democratic institutions.

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The location for Thursday's speech, as was the case for the others, was chosen for effect. It will be near Arizona State University, which houses the McCain Institute, named after the late Arizona Sen. John McCain — a friend of Biden and the 2008 Republican presidential nominee who spent his public life denouncing autocrats around the globe.

“I have come to honor the McCain Institute and Library because they are home to a proud Republican who put country first," Biden says in the excerpts. “Our commitment should be no less because democracy should unite all Americans – regardless of political affiliation.”

As Biden has tried to do in the past, Thursday's speech is designed to avoid alienating moderate Republicans while confronting the spread of anti-democratic rhetoric.

“Not every Republican -– not even the majority of Republicans –- adhere to the extremist MAGA ideology. I know because I’ve been able to work with Republicans my whole career," Biden says. “But there is no question that today’s Republican Party is driven and intimidated by MAGA extremists.”

Republicans competing with Trump for their party's 2024 presidential nomination have largely avoided challenging his election falsehoods. In addition, Trump's allies on Capitol Hill are only becoming more emboldened as he eggs them on, including toward a looming government shutdown that appears all but inevitable.

In closed-door fundraisers, Biden has spoken at length about reelection, imploring supporters to join his effort to “literally save American democracy,” as he described it to wealthy donors this month in New York.

“I’m running because we made progress — that’s good — but because our democracy, I think, is still at risk,” Biden said.

Advisers see Biden’s continued focus on democracy as both good policy and good politics. Campaign officials have pored over the election results from last November, when candidates who denied the 2020 election results did not fare well in competitive races, and point to polling that showed democracy was a highly motivating issue for voters in 2022.

Candidates who backed Trump’s election lies and were running for statewide offices with some influence over elections — governor, secretary of state, attorney general — lost their races in every presidential battleground state.

In few states does Biden’s message of democracy resonate more than in Arizona, which became politically competitive during Trump’s presidency after seven decades of Republican dominance. After Biden's victory, the state was a hotbed of efforts to overturn or cast doubt on the results.

Republican state lawmakers used their subpoena power to obtain all the 2020 ballots and vote-counting machines from Maricopa County, then hired Trump supporters to conduct an unprecedented partisan review of the election. The widely mocked spectacleconfirmed Biden’s victory but fueled unfounded conspiracy theories about the election and spurred an exodus of election workers.

In the 2022 midterms, voters up and down the ballot rejected Republican candidates who repeatedly denied the results of the 2020 election. But Kari Lake, the GOP gubernatorial candidate, has never conceded her loss to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs and is expected to soon launch her a bid for the U.S. Senate. Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters and Mark Finchem, who ran for secretary of state, also repeated fraudulent election claims in their respective campaigns.

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., who defeated Masters, said the importance of defending democracy resonates not only with members of his own party but independents and moderate GOP voters.

“I met so many Republicans that were sick and tired of the lies about an election that was two years old,” Kelly said.

Indeed, Republicans privately concede that the election denialism rhetoric that dominated their candidates’ message — as well as the looming specter of Trump — damaged their efforts to retain the governor’s mansion and flip a hotly contested Senate seat, according to three Republican officials who worked in statewide races last cycle.

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is seeking the Democratic nomination in next year’s Senate race, said a democracy-focused message is particularly important to two critical blocs of voters in the state: Latinos and veterans, both of whom Gallego said are uniquely affected by election denialism and the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.

"You know, we come from countries and experiences where democracy is very corrupt, and many of us are only one generation removed from that, but we’re close enough to see how bad it can be," Gallego said. "And so Jan. 6 actually was particularly jarring, I think, to Latinos.”

As he pays tribute to McCain on Thursday, Biden will also announce new federal funds being directed to build the McCain Library, which the White House described as a “new multipurpose facility to provide education, work, and health monitoring programs to underserved communities in the state.”

The money comes from a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package passed in the early months of Biden’s presidency, and the project is in partnership with the with the McCain Institute and Arizona State University. The late senator’s wife, Cindy McCain, other members of their family, Gov. Hobbs, and the state’s representatives on Capitol Hill will be at the event commemorating McCain, “whose intolerance for the abuse of power and faith in America sets a powerful example to live by,” the White House said.

Matt Gaetz’s rumored run for Florida governor draws fun reactions

Rumors have heated up that Rep. Matt Gaetz wants to run for governor of Florida. NBC reports that with current Gov. Ron DeSantis facing term limits, Gaetz’s possible announcement was the topic of conversation in Tallahassee during a state legislative function the past few days. One longtime Florida Republican lobbyist told NBC, “There was a lot of talk about it at the reception last night, and Gaetz was telling people to basically expect him to be in.”

It’s clear Gaetz enjoys the spotlight. His public appearances over the past few months have seen him attacking everyone in his party not named Trump, and can be interpreted as him positioning himself to be the GOP’s next top Florida Man. Frankly, for those who have watched Gaetz’s craven political theater these past few years, it’d be more shocking if he didn’t run for a new office.

Gaetz has the kind of detestable personality that inspires reactions, both voluntary and involuntary, and this news was no different.

RELATED STORY: Gaetz attacks McCarthy in wild House speech

One of the most shared … feelings about this news can be summed up in about five words.

Shouldn't he be in jail?

— Kelsey Logan (@subtle_optimism) September 18, 2023

If reading isn’t your thing:

pic.twitter.com/GP2VcwPy6e

— Jackie (clevfan) (@jackiehaz) September 18, 2023

Uhh Huhu, I’m gonna like , run for governor of Florida pic.twitter.com/UxM4kGYJYQ

— Kory Korsakoff (@KorsakoffK) September 18, 2023

Anyone watch “The Good Place”?

pic.twitter.com/OBSseoVgvd

— Marja 💙 🌎 (@marjaane) September 18, 2023

What about “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia”?

pic.twitter.com/cVD0frkkVI

— @dangloeckner (@dangloeckner) September 18, 2023

And finally, a sentiment shared by most who heard the news:

Holy crap, no!!!

— MamaDee 🟧 (@AltmanDannean) September 18, 2023

God help us all if Gaetz can get atop of Florida’s political system. As we have seen, Florida governors can do a world of damage.

Sign the petition: Denounce DeSantis & Florida Republicans

RELATED STORIES:

Matt Gaetz’s impeachment schtick didn’t fly with CNN anchor

Florida man Matt Gaetz wants to censure judge in Trump case

Rep. Matt Gaetz gives speech against sexual harassment. Yes, that Matt Gaetz

Kerry talks with Drew Linzer, director of the online polling company Civiqs. Drew tells us what the polls say about voters’ feelings toward President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and what the results would be if the two men were to, say … run against each other for president in 2024. Oh yeah, Drew polled to find out who thinks Donald Trump is guilty of the crimes he’s been indicted for, and whether or not he should see the inside of a jail cell.

Hot takes pour in after McCarthy announces impeachment inquiry

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s announcement of an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden isn’t surprising so much as it is depressingly predictable. The Republican Party’s inability to generate the tiniest shreds of evidence of wrongdoing on the part of the then-vice president regarding his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings has been a pathetic spectacle of political theater for just under a year. McCarthy’s impeachment inquiry was him bowing to the pressures from the “Freedom Caucus” wing of his party, but just a short while after his announcement, he was still roundly excoriated on the House floor by Rep. Matt Gaetz, who called McCarthy’s move a “baby step.”

Ian Sams, a White House spokesman, released a statement saying McCarthy’s new political move amounted to an “evidence-free goose chase.” That was the diplomatic reaction to what is clearly the naked abuse of government by conservative lawmakers. “The House Republicans’ investigations for the past 9 months have proved that — as their own witnesses testify the President hasn’t done anything wrong, and their own documents show no ties to the President.”

There are a lot of reactions, but first, let’s hear from legal scholar Elie Mystal:

Why would I write about House GOP's impeachment inquiry? I write about law and law adjacent issues. Not the inevitable result of Unfrozen Caveman Congresswoman having her hand so far up Kevin McCarthy's ass that she controls his vocal chords.

— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) September 12, 2023

RELATED STORY: McCarthy thinks impeachment inquiry rules should apply to everyone but him

Let us start with some criteria.

Any news organization that reports the news about McCarthy endorsing an impeachment inquiry without CLEARLY and AT THE TOP stating that there is no meaningful reason for such an inquiry is doing journalism wrong. Too many orgs already jumping into the gamesmanship.

— Garrett M. Graff (@vermontgmg) September 12, 2023

Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman gave this Halloween-style response to the news.

.@SenFettermanPA reacts to Speaker McCarthy moving forward with a House impeachment inquiry into POTUS… (Just watch) pic.twitter.com/jg3aeyDW7F

— Liz Brown-Kaiser (@lizbrownkaiser) September 12, 2023

Rep. Ayanna Pressley called out the chaos of the Republican Party.

From sham impeachment inquiries to threats of government shutdown. Republicans continue to govern with chaos, cruelty, and callousness—and they are wasting our damn time. https://t.co/3rfxMLic0l

— Ayanna Pressley (@AyannaPressley) September 12, 2023

As some people pointed out, McCarthy, like every single Republican in office, is an enormous hypocrite when it comes to just about anything he says or does.

Kevin McCarthy literally authored a resolution condemning Pelosi for launching impeachment without a vote. “this decision represents an abuse of power and brings discredit to the House” pic.twitter.com/aXkZ31t5jz

— Sawyer Hackett (@SawyerHackett) September 12, 2023

Rep. Ted Lieu decided to give people some context.

Here are the three pieces of evidence that Speaker McCarthy has to open an impeachment inquiry on President Biden: 1. “ “ 2. “ “ 3. “ “ https://t.co/w5xc1y7kpv

— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) September 12, 2023

What about the leader of the Senate Republicans, Mitch McConnell? Can you say, duck and run?

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell reacts to possible Biden impeachment inquiry: “I don’t have any advice to give to the House. They’ve got a totally different set of challenges … So I think the best advice for the Senate is to do our job and we’ll see how this plays out.” pic.twitter.com/lBzmvy6Yum

— The Recount (@therecount) September 12, 2023

Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer gave some advice to McCarthy on leadership.

“I have sympathy with Speaker McCarthy. He’s in a difficult position. But sometimes you’ve got to tell these people who are way off the deep end… that they can’t go forward with it.” — Senate Majority Leader Schumer reacts to “absurd” impeachment inquiry against President Biden pic.twitter.com/EIjoGGGikx

— The Recount (@therecount) September 12, 2023

Rep. Adam Schiff had some important constitutional information to impart.

McCarthy’s reading of the Impeachment Clause: The President shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or … when the Speaker, lacking moral authority or control over his members, can’t remain speaker or fund the government without it.

— Adam Schiff (@RepAdamSchiff) September 12, 2023

At least McCarthy can hang his hat on the idea that now that he’s given the so-called Freedom Caucus what they claim to have wanted, they will totally not try and shut down the government for no discernible reason.

McCarthy’s impeachment inquiry hasn’t swayed the Freedom Caucus towards funding the government pic.twitter.com/sLink7n70S

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 12, 2023

Yikes.

Why you never negotiate with terrorists, Exhibit 37,548

— Raymond J. Mollica (@RaymondMollica) September 12, 2023

Sign the petition: Denounce MAGA GOP's baseless impeachment inquiry against Biden

Sen. John Fetterman is back—and telling it like it is

Sen. John Fetterman rightfully earned headlines earlier this year for publicly dealing with his mental health struggle. He has used his experience to try to destigmatize mental illness, openly talking about his treatment and recovery as a way to “pay it forward” and make mental health recognition and treatment a national issue.

The Pennsylvania Democrat definitely appears to be recovered, and he’s bringing the no-bullshit fire that supporters expected when they elected him last year. He’s taking on Republicans with all the ridicule and disdain they deserve.

House Republicans trying to gin up a ridiculous impeachment investigation of President Joe Biden? “Go ahead. Do it, I dare you,” Fetterman said, speaking to reporters Wednesday. “If you can find the votes, go ahead, because you’re going to lose. It’s a loser.”

“It would just be like a big circle jerk on the fringe right,” Fetterman continued. “Sometimes you just gotta call their bullshit. If they’re going to threaten, then let’s see it.” Yep, that’s telling it like it is, in the kind of language it demands.

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He isn’t saving his candor for just the House assholes, either. He has a few choice observations about Republican freshman Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, the faux-populist and former venture capitalist with a law degree from Yale University and an estimated net worth of $7 million in 2022. A bipartisan group of senators, including Fetterman and Vance, has been working on rail safety legislation following the disastrous derailment of a train carrying hazardous substances in East Palestine, Ohio, earlier this year.

Fetterman is directly questioning Vance’s commitment to that legislation and to working in a bipartisan manner to get it done. He told reporters that they could be as close as just one vote away from having the 60 they need to get the bill to the floor, but instead of focusing on that, Vance is spending his time on a MAGA-friendly bill to ban mask mandates on public transportation, airplanes, and in public schools.

Vance is "fixating" on "silly performance art," Fetterman said. "You know, 'breathe free' or whatever it's called.” He added that Vance should be "focusing on getting [the train safety bill] finished and taken care of.” He continued by saying Vance "wants to put up an act that's going to go nowhere" rather than "something that really can be transformative for rail safety."

"It's bizarre," Fetterman said. "No one is trying to force masks back on." It’s bizarre both from a policy standpoint and as a waste of the Senate’s time, but it’s also totally performative and a middle finger to the Democrats that Vance is supposedly working with to pass the rail bill. He’s putting MAGA nonsense ahead of critical work.

Fetterman is absolutely right in calling that out. More of that please, Democratic senators.

Why does it seem like Republicans have such a hard time recruiting Senate candidates who actually live in the states they want to run in? We're discussing this strange but persistent phenomenon on this week's edition of "The Downballot." The latest example is former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, who's been spending his time in Florida since leaving the House in 2015, but he's not the only one. Republican Senate hopefuls in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Montana, and Wisconsin all have questionable ties to their home states—a problem that Democrats have gleefully exploited in recent years. (Remember Dr. Oz? Of course you do.)

AM

Texas AG Ken Paxton’s impeachment trial is in the hands of Republicans who have been by his side

Billionaires, burner phones, alleged bribes: The impeachment trial of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is going to test the will of Republicans senators to oust not only one of their own, but a firebrand who has helped drive the state's hard turn to the right for years.

The historic proceedings set to start in the state Senate Tuesday are the most serious threat yet to one of Texas' most powerful figures after nine years engulfed by criminal charges, scandal, and accusations of corruption. If convicted, Paxton—just the third official in Texas' nearly 200-year history to be impeached—could be removed from office.

Witnesses called to testify could include Paxton and a woman with whom he has acknowledged having an extramarital affair. Members of the public hoping to watch from the gallery will have to line up for passes. And conservative activists have already bought up TV airtime and billboards, pressuring senators to acquit one of former President Donald Trump's biggest defenders.

“It's a very serious event but it's a big-time show,” said Bill Miller, a longtime Austin lobbyist and a friend of Paxton. “Any way you cut it, it's going to have the attention of anyone and everyone.”

The build-up to the trial has widened divisions among Texas Republicans that reflect the wider fissures roiling the party nationally heading into the 2024 election.

At the fore of recent Texas policies are hardline measures to stop migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, battles over what is taught in public schools, and restrictions on LGBTQ+ rights—many of which are championed loudest in the Senate, where Republicans hold a dominant 19-12 majority and have Paxton's fate in their hands.

The Senate has long been a welcoming place for Paxton. His wife, Angela, is a state senator, although she is barred from voting in the trial. Paxton also was a state senator before becoming attorney general in 2015 and still has entanglements in the chamber, including with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who will preside over the trial and loaned $125,000 to Paxton's reelection campaign.

If all 12 Democrats vote to convict Paxton, they would still need at least nine Republicans on their side. Or the Senate could vote by a simple majority to dismiss the charges altogether. But it was a GOP-dominated House that decided by an overwhelming majority that Paxton should be impeached.

“You’re seeing a fracture within the party right now,” said Matt Langston, a Republican political consultant in Texas. “This is going to impact the leadership and the party for a long time.”

The trial also appears to have heightened Paxton’s legal risks. The case against him largely centers on his relationship with Nate Paul, an Austin real estate developer who was indicted this summer after being accused of making false statements to banks to secure $170 million in loans.

Last month, federal prosecutors in Washington kicked a long-running investigation of Paxton into a higher gear when they began using a grand jury in San Antonio to examine his dealings with Paul, according to two people with knowledge of the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of secrecy rules around grand jury proceedings. The grand jury’s role was first reported by the Austin American-Statesman.

Chris Toth, the former executive director of the National Association of Attorneys General, said Paxton has for years weathered scandals unique among top state lawyers. He said the outcome of the trial will send a message about what is acceptable to elected officials across the country.

Impeachment managers in the GOP-controlled Texas House filed nearly 4,000 pages of exhibits ahead of the trial, including accusations that Paxton hid the use of multiple cellphones and reveled in other perks of office.

“There’s very much a vile and insidious level of influence that Ken Paxton exerts through continuing to get away with his conduct,” Toth said.

Part of Paxton's political durability is his alignment with Trump, and this was never more apparent than when Paxton joined efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Like Trump, Paxton says he is a victim of politically motivated investigations.

But James Dickey, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Texas, said the base of the GOP sees Paxton’s impeachment as different from legal troubles facing Trump.

“Exclusively, the actions against President Trump are from Democrat elected officials and so it can’t avoid having more of a partisan tone,” he said. “Therefore, Republican voters have more concern and frustration with it.”

Ukraine Update: MAGA support for Russia rising as Trump attacks Ukraine in his campaign

Over the weekend, Donald Trump resuscitated the same anti-Ukraine crusade and tactic that got him impeached the first time around: holding Ukraine aid hostage unless the Biden family is “investigated.” No one will ever accuse him of learning from his mistakes.

Yet his renewed and vocal ire against Ukraine is having a real effect on the MAGA view of the conflict, according to Civiqs polling.

Civiqs doesn’t publicly track attitudes about the Ukraine war, but it has tracked one relevant question for the past six years: ”Do you see Russia as more of a potential ally, or a foe of America?”

Among the general public, Russia’s ratings are in the gutter—10% consider it an ally, while 76% are correct that it is a foe. It’s not a subjective matter. Russian leadership regularly threatens to launch nuclear weapons against the United States and its allies. It’s hard to “Make America Great” if America (and the rest of the world) is a nuclear wasteland. This shouldn’t be controversial.

Yet that 10% is a very special decile. It represents MAGA country, and they are increasingly warming up to Russia’s fascist dictator Vladimir Putin, as Trump and MAGA leaders like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene lead the charge.

Check out the chart among Republicans:

What’s initially interesting is that despite Trump’s railing about the “Russian hoax,” Republican attitudes toward Russia worsened throughout Trump’s first impeachment proceedings, the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the 2020 elections, and ultimately, Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Yet attitudes about Russia among Republicans have improved from their nadir in November 2022, going from 11% ally, 71% foe, to 15-64 today, an 11-point net swing. Russia’s brutality and nuclear rhetoric have only worsened since, so the shift is all from domestic politics.

Indeed, that November 2022 nadir is notable, as that is when Republicans took the House, emboldening Greene to make promises at a Trump rally that, “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first."

She and Rep. Matt Gaetz unsuccessfully tried to defund Ukraine aid this past month. Greene’s effort got 89 Republican votes, with 130 opposed. Gaetz’s push got 70 votes, with 149 opposed. It’s not a majority opinion in the Republican Party, but Trump is moving his base’s opinion on the matter.

What’s interesting is which Republicans are changing their minds.

Among Republicans older than 65, the spread is 8% ally, 78% foe. These are old Cold War survivors who lived under the threat of Soviet annihilation. But the younger the Republican, the more likely they support Putin. Among Republicans age 18-34, the spread is 20-52.

This is the crowd that worships incels like Nick Fuentes, megalomaniacs like pro-Russia Elon Musk, and weirdos like Jackson Hinkle.

If you don’t know who Jackson Hinkle is, this is a taste:

Satanic Zelensky has signed a law moving Christmas in Ukraine from January 7 (Orthodox Christmas) to December 25, in his effort to "renounce Russian heritage.” pic.twitter.com/Ks3a8n12F3

— Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) July 28, 2023

Can you think of anything more satanic than celebrating Christmas on Dec. 25? This is a great thread if you want to hate-read more about Hinkle. It includes stories about his pathetic romantic life and his parents smacking him down for his lies.

Those younger conservatives lack the personal memory of Russia’s long history of aggression and fascism, and they are part of a social media algorithmic culture that rewards contrarianism and outrage-harvesting. It really is telling that the geriatric Republican caucus in the Senate has little patience for Russia, while the youngest Republican House members drive divisions in the House.

These numbers among Republicans will likely keep swinging toward Putin as Trump centers much of his campaign on this message. He is under legal assault for breathtaking corruption, he feels an existential need to “both sides” that level of corruption, and he still weirdly thinks that centering Ukraine in that narrative gets him there. And let’s face it, Trump loves Putin. He wants to be Putin. And any enemy of Putin is no friend of Trump.

“Make America Great,” indeed.

As of now, the pro-Putin MAGA crowd is far from garnering the necessary support to block Russian aid. That doesn’t mean that they won’t be making this a defining rallying cry for both the Republican primary (former vice president Mike Pence was booed on a campaign stage for defending Ukraine aid), and the 2024 general election.

I’ve mostly ignored Russia’s big push around Kreminna and Svatove up in northeastern Ukraine, on the Luhansk-Kharkiv border. At one point, Ukraine claimed that 100,000 Russian troops had gathered to try and retake the strategic logistical hub city of Kupyansk, which they lost in last year’s fall counteroffensive.

The whole notion was as stupid as fears that Belarus would invade Ukraine, or that Russia would launch an amphibious assault on the Black Sea port city of Odesa. When something seems implausible, it most likely is. And the idea that Russia would move one-third of its forces to a part of Ukraine with little strategic value when it was failing to advance anywhere else on the map was ridiculous.

But Russia is dumb; we know that. So it made sense to keep an eye on things. In the end, the most that Russia could accomplish was to capture three “towns” with a combined population of around 80 people. If there were 100,000 Russian troops in the area, why were we only seeing a few dozen here or there?

In any case, Ukraine has recaptured at least two of those three “towns,” and maybe even the third. There is violence and death in that section of the front, so I don’t mean to minimize what those troops are experiencing. But in the greater scheme of things, it’s not very relevant at all. There were never 100,000 Russian troops, and Ukraine never worried too much about it.

The real action is happening down south.

After the initial attempt at a big armored breakthrough failed, Ukraine reverted to a more cautious approach, with a refocus on shaping the battlefield in southern Ukraine. That meant two things: 1.) degrading Russia’s massive artillery advantage, and 2.) degrading Russia’s logistics. If Russian frontline troops can’t get the supplies they need, and if they can’t put up a wall of artillery in front of a Ukrainian advance, things look a lot different for any Ukrainian advance.

Ukrainian counterbattery fire has done a number on Russian artillery, and General Staff still claims between 20-30 artillery kills every single day.

Russia has long ago adjusted for GMLRS rocket artillery, moving its supply depots and hubs beyond its range. But that changed with the arrival of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and their French counterpart, SCALP. Suddenly, supply depots, troop concentrations, and command control centers once considered safe by Russia are going “boom” all around Russian-occupied territory. And just as importantly, so are bridges.

In fact, Ukraine just shut down the last remaining rail link connecting Crimea to southern Ukraine.

In connection with the confirmed damage to the Chongar railway bridge, I consider it appropriate to recall the importance of this connection for Russian military logistics. The railroads that Russians can use to supply the entire southern front are a connection from Armiansk… pic.twitter.com/xNRJpe9g4v

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 31, 2023

Russian can truck supplies in, but it is infinitely more challenging to do so. Trucks use more fuel, they break down, they get ambushed by partisans, more stuff gets stolen or “diverted,” and you need far more vehicles to transfer the same amount of supplies that a single train can ship.

It’s the same problem with closing the grain shipping corridor. There are other ways for Ukraine to move that grain—like trucks and rail—but those have nowhere near the capacity of a single one of those massive container ships.

Given current satellite photos and a single Russian on-the-ground photo (they’re being better at hiding the evidence this time around), it’s hard to tell just how extensive the damage to the bridge is. Rail lines can be fixed quickly, so it depends on how damaged the bridge’s supports are. But now we know Ukraine can hit it, and can continue to hit it to keep the bridge out of action.

Indeed, we’re starting to see something akin to last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensives, where Ukraine spent the spring and summer shaping the battlefield, targeting Russian logistics, command, and control, then pulled the big trigger in the fall. Let’s hope for equal success!

Donate to help those escaping Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine

The only ones interested in Republican investigations are Republicans

House Republicans generally have no interest in pushing anything with the majority support of the American people, and their lengthy list of pet investigations is no exception to the rule.

After Republicans reclaimed the lower chamber last year, the incoming majority promised a series of probes to supposedly combat wokeness (i.e., own the libs) and unmask the "Biden Crime Family.” Failures at the U.S.-Mexico border, the origins of COVID-19, and "woke" school board policies were all high on the list.

But House Republicans have ended up devoting the bulk of their energy to the seediest and most incendiary of probes: whether to impeach Joe Biden or his Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and digging into Hunter Biden's finances.

As new Morning Consult polling shows about support for the probes: Biden's impeachment rests at just 30% of voters (55% among Republicans, but just 24% among independents), Mayorkis' impeachment is at 22% (34% among Republicans and just 18% among independents), and Hunter Biden's finances rests at 27% (46% among Republicans and just 24% among independents). In other words, none of the current GOP probes dominating the headlines garner even a third of support from the general public.

New @MorningConsult poll: *NONE* of the @HouseGOP’s main “investigations” have majority support to be a top priority for Congress, despite months of intense focus by House leaders & conservative media In fact, almost all of them fail to garner support from even 1/3 of Americans pic.twitter.com/nOXlfoJd4V

— Ian Sams (@IanSams46) July 10, 2023

The issue that does have more widespread support, investigating fentanyl trafficking (58%), remains ongoing but has been overshadowed by House Republicans' infighting and their fixation on claiming a scalp before finding any real evidence to support it.

Naturally, House Republicans' investigative efforts have also been plagued by buffoonish incompetence:  

Oh, what the heck, let's just file an impeachment resolution and we'll figure out the criming part later.

That is the problem in a nutshell: House Republicans can't really put their finger on anything specific, but their base demands instant gratification, so MAGA misfits such as Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado are taking action into their own hands.

In March, a Navigator Research poll found that 50% of registered voters (including a 47% plurality of independents) believed Republicans in Congress would "overreach" with their various investigations into Biden and other Democrats. That 50% was a 3-point bump from when the outlet originally asked the question in January 2023.

To date, House Republicans have more than lived up to those voters’ estimations and done nothing to convince them otherwise. At some point, Navigator will re-ask the question and it will be interesting to see if the needle has moved.

Watch this amazing breakdown of Republican antics on the House floor

The last few days have been what Republicans consider busy. Have they solved any issues related to American workers, public safety, or national security? No. They’ve introduced an impeachment resolution against President Joe Biden and voted to censure Rep. Adam Schiff for pursuing the mountain of evidence against the Donald Trump campaign’s many connections to foreign interests and intelligence.

On Friday during the floor debate over Rep. Lauren Boebert’s Biden impeachment resolution, Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern gave it to the Republican Party for about six and a half minutes, calling the current Republican political vengeance efforts unserious. “[Republicans] dishonored this House and dishonored themselves by bringing to the floor a ridiculous censure resolution against Adam Schiff because Donald Trump told them to,” McGovern said. “And today they're dishonoring this House and dishonoring themselves by bringing to the floor a ridiculous impeachment referral resolution against Joe Biden because Donald Trump told them to.”

And then McGovern gave a true distillation of how useless this Republican Party is.

RELATED STORY: Tense—or typical?—moment in House as MTG calls Boebert a 'b----'

“This body has become a place where extreme, outlandish and nutty issues get debated passionately and important ones, not at all” McGovern said, summarizing what the Republican-lead House means these days. To highlight this disconnection between reality and MAGA fiction, McGovern contrasted real work versus MAGA work:

They talk about law and order when their frontrunner, frontrunner for president, has been indicted on federal charges. They talk about respecting law enforcement. Then they come in here and downplay the rioters who came in here on January 6th and beat up cops with fire extinguishers. I don't even know how they look the Capitol police officers in the eye when they walk in this place.  

They talk about how important it is that we follow a good process, yet the Rules Committee was called in late last night, literally at a moment's notice where they deployed emergency procedures so we could refer this measure to a committee. What a spectacular emergency. Truly something that needed to be done immediately. We all know the truth. The real emergency here was that the Georgia wing and the Colorado wing of the MAGA caucus got into a fight right over right over there on the House floor about who gets to impeach the president first.

McGovern added, “They can try to impeach Joe Biden all they want, but all they are doing is impeaching themselves and making a mockery of this place while they're at it.” He went on to call Trump a “cult leader” who would go down as the worst president in U.S. history.

McGovern spent a good amount of time talking about all of the things that should be happening on the House floor and what the Republican Party is choosing to do instead, concluding:

“It is grotesque. It is embarrassing and it is shameful. We aren't we aren't debating matters that help or uplift people. Rather, we're debating garbage to make Trump happy. It's cowardly and it's sickening. What we have here is a joke. Just like the Republican majority, which is clearly going to be a temporary majority. And with that, Mr. Speaker, I reserve my time.”

Amen to that.

Joining us on "The Downballot" this week is North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel, the first member of Congress to appear on the show! Nickel gives us the blow-by-blow of his unlikely victory that saw him flip an extremely competitive seat from red to blue last year, including how he adjusted when a new map gave him a very different district and why highlighting the extremism of his MAGA-flavored opponent was key to his success. A true election nerd, Nickel tells us which precincts he was tracking on election night that let him know he was going to win—and which fellow House freshman is the one you want to rock out with at a concert.

MAGA Fight Consumes House Floor as Marjorie Taylor Greene Goes After Lauren Boebert, Calls Her a ‘Little B****’

Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert appeared to get into a heated exchange on the House floor, with reports suggesting Greene called Boebert a “little bitch.”

The altercation between the two Trump supporters took place as the House debated a motion to censure Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) for pushing false claims that former President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign colluded with Russia.

Greene, an acolyte of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and Boebert have reportedly been feuding for months.

A clip surfaced of the two firebrand lawmakers engaging in a conversation that at times looked tense.

The animated exchange was posted to social media.

RELATED: Steve Bannon Wants Marjorie Taylor Greene Primaried After Voting in Favor of Biden-McCarthy Debt Ceiling Deal

Marjorie Taylor Greene Allegedly Calls Lauren Boebert a ‘Little Bitch’

The Daily Beast found multiple witnesses to the conversation between Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert, confirming that it wasn’t simply a friendly chat.

The sources claim Greene “cursed out” Boebert over who should take the lead on impeaching President Joe Biden. Boebert (R-CO) leveraged a procedural tool earlier this week to force a vote on her own impeachment resolution, undercutting Greene’s repeated efforts.

McCarthy dutifully defended Greene by urging Republicans to oppose Boebert’s resolution, saying, “I don’t think it’s the right thing to do.”

With that as a backdrop, Boebert was clearly not pleased with Greene making statements to the press about her impeachment effort, and Greene was clearly not pleased with Boebert trying to upstage her.

Boebert, according to the report, instigated the confrontation, initially addressing “statements you made about me publicly.”

Three sources claim Greene (R-GA) called Boebert a “bitch” while one of them contended the full phrase was “little bitch.”

“I’ve donated to you, I’ve defended you. But you’ve been nothing but a little bitch to me,” Greene allegedly told Boebert, according to the Daily Beast’s source. “And you copied my articles of impeachment after I asked you to cosponsor them.”

Neither Greene nor Boebert’s impeachment resolutions have any chance of moving forward. It took the House multiple votes just to censure Schiff and his transgressions were as obvious as anybody’s.

RELATED: Marjorie Taylor Greene Sees Herself as Trump’s VP Pick in 2024

A Bathroom Fight to Boot

This isn’t the first time these two women have reportedly engaged in a bitter exchange.

Greene got into a shouting match with Boebert in a bathroom back in January.

Boebert at the time said Greene approached her in a congressional ladies’ bathroom and started “being kind of nasty” about the vote for Speaker.

“No one else had been nasty about it. Everyone had been very professional,” she said. “And so when she started going after me, I looked at her and said, ‘Don’t be ugly.’”

Greene clearly has designs on attaining greater power in her congressional role, hitching her cart to McCarthy in a manner that has seen the two team up to scold MAGA reps and celebrate a debt ceiling agreement benefitting President Biden together.

Steve Bannon, the former campaign manager for Donald Trump, called out Greene for voting in favor of the debt ceiling agreement and even called on Republicans to primary her.

Sources have said Greene is seeking to place herself at the forefront of Trump’s selection for Vice President in 2024.

She has consistently gone along with Trump and McCarthy in an obvious attempt to prove she’s not quite as fringe as lawmakers like Boebert, showing she is willing to go along with the more lucrative political position of the day.

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Trump teased a run for months, announced his candidacy—and then hid in his room, former aide says

I think we all know why former President Donald Trump is running again in 2024: to keep his ass out of jail. Trump is dogged by indictments and subpoenas, and although he may have dodged two impeachment bullets, federal district attorneys aren’t so easy to outrun.

Despite his many legal issues, Trump and his BFF, hubris, announced his candidacy from his Florida manse.

“In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” Trump told an eager crowd at Mar-a-Lago in mid-November.  

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Fast-forward to December and aside from a now-infamous dinner the former president shared with two other antisemites, he’s barely left his bedroom, a 2020 Trump campaign adviser told CNN.

“So far, he has gone down from his bedroom, made an announcement, gone back up to his bedroom, and hasn’t been seen since except to have dinner with a White supremacist,” the unnamed adviser said, adding, “It’s 1000% a ho-hum campaign.”

Just three days after Trump made his lackluster announcement, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to oversee not one but two ongoing criminal investigations against the former president.

As for polling on Trump’s support for 2024, it appears he’s just a bit ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 36% to DeSantis’ 30%. But a Quinnipiac poll suggests that Republicans prefer DeSantis as their candidate over Trump.

And Republicans smell blood in the water. It seems nearly everyone, from former Vice President Mike Pence to former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy—along with scads of others—have all condemned his dinner with Kanye “Ye” West and his buddy, notorious Holocaust-denier Nick Fuentes. When you add that nearly every single candidate Trump endorsed lost in the midterm elections, it’s not looking great.

But here’s that hubris again as Trump goes into full denial mode, confidently telling his advisers that the backlash over the dinner is “dying down.”

Trump’s campaign team tells CNN their candidate is simply “taking a breather.” And an unnamed adviser told the outlet:

“The question a lot of us have is can Trump sustain a campaign for two years? That’s the real difficulty here. The pacing we’re seeing right now is designed to do that.”

Breather or not, the Trump of 2015—with all the vim and vigor of a white supremacist hoping to take control of the nation—seems to have dimmed. What Trump can’t face is that politics are fickle. When you’re hot, you’re hot; and when you’re not, you’re Trump.