Can Maine’s governor topple Susan Collins?

Posted on October 14, 2025 by Oliver Willis

Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills officially launched her campaign to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins on Tuesday, with a video highlighting her opposition to President Donald Trump, who she characterized as a “bully.”

YouTube Video

In the campaign video, Mills highlighted her comment of “see you in court” to Trump at a February meeting in the White House. The statement was in response to Trump attempting to berate Mills for opposing his administration’s attempt to ban transgender children from participating in school sports.

Trump attempted to withhold federal funding from Maine over the issue but in April a federal judge ordered the Department of Agriculture to pay out the money to the state.

“We stood up to Trump and stopped him from cutting the school lunch program for Maine kids,” Mills says in her ad, before going on to criticize Collins for letting “bullies like Trump have their way.”

Collins has long presented herself as a moderate representing Maine’s mix of Democratic and Republican voters but has often allied herself with the right wing. She declined to vote to remove Trump from office in 2020 despite the House majority agreeing that he had committed high crimes. Collins also voted to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh, whose vote led to the eventual repeal of Roe v. Wade and the loss of abortion rights for millions of Americans.

Mills is not alone in challenging Collins. Oyster farmer Graham Platner is also running for the Democratic Party’s Senate nomination and has attracted the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders.

A Zenith Research poll of Maine voters conducted Oct.7-10 found both Mills and Platner polling ahead of Collins, with Platner ahead by 14 and Mills up 8.

In Morning Consult’s tracking poll of governors around the country, Mills was the most unpopular Democratic governor—but her approval rating of 49% to 46% disapproval is leagues ahead of Collins, who has a 38% approval rating and 54% disapproval.

Maine is traditionally considered a Democratic-leaning state and former Vice President Kamala Harris won it in the 2024 election. Collins has been one of the top targets of the Democratic Party and the party’s Senate campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has been criticizing Collins for siding with her fellow Republicans to shut down the federal government.

“Collins is shutting down the government instead of working to address the health care crisis she helped create, and in 2026 Mainers will hold her accountable at the ballot box,” DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle said in a September statement.

This Texas Republican stalked Trump to get his endorsement—and flopped

Posted on August 5, 2025 by Alex Samuels

To win President Donald Trump’s endorsement amid a rough GOP Senate primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton did what most of us would be too embarrassed to do: He stalked Trump.

CNN reports that Paxton made an unannounced visit to Trump’s golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland, last month, where he just happened to bump into the president. It’s unclear if Trump was expecting the pop-in, though they reportedly spoke about the primary, where Paxton is challenging incumbent John Cornyn from the right.

It’s not the only time Paxton has gone out of his way to win Trump over. Earlier this summer, a pro-Paxton political action committee aired its first TV ad in Palm Beach, Florida—right where Trump could see it from Mar-a-Lago—and far from Texas.

It’s the kind of pandering and political theater Trump has come to expect. In today’s GOP, making another man the centerpiece of your brand is seen as a strategic move, not an embarrassing one. Paxton flew 4,500 miles just to kiss the ring.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, shown in January.

But Paxton’s gotta do what he’s gotta do to win this messy primary. And with Rep. Wesley Hunt eyeing a run, it could get even more volatile. But despite his cross-continental pilgrimage, Paxton has nothing to show for it. Trump hasn’t endorsed anyone, and sources close to the president say he’s holding back for now. He’s got time too: The primary isn’t until March.

Cornyn and Paxton, longtime rivals, are now in what’s becoming one of the marquee Republican showdowns of the 2026 midterm cycle. The two have never been allies. Cornyn has long viewed Paxton as a scandal magnet and legal risk, while Paxton paints Cornyn as a swampy moderate out of step with the MAGA base. The animosity runs deep, fueling an increasingly sycophantic race to win Trump’s favor.

Paxton might have the upper hand with the GOP grassroots—at least for now. Numerous public and private polls show him leading Cornyn in the primary. But he also carries baggage. He’s in the middle of a high-profile divorce after his wife accused him of adultery, a saga that could turn voters off as it becomes more public. He was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges of abusing his office to benefit a political donor—though he was later acquitted by the Senate.

Then there’s Paxton’s role in enforcing Texas’s near-total abortion ban. In March, his office filed the state’s first criminal charges under the law, arresting a Houston-area midwife and one of her employees. While that may appeal to hard-line conservatives, it could alienate suburban voters who have trended away from the GOP in recent years.

Trump’s team is watching the race closely, according to CNN, since the outcome could influence control of the Senate in 2026. With Republicans bracing for a possible loss of their House majority—despite aggressive gerrymandering—their Senate majority takes on increased importance. A flawed nominee like Paxton could give Democrats a shot in flipping the seat next November.

“Winning is all that matters to the president,” an anonymous Republican strategist close to the White House told CNN. They also emphasized that loyalty isn’t the key to unlock Trump’s endorsement—it’s supposedly electability.

Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas, shown in 2023.

That’s why Cornyn may still have a chance. He’s a seasoned fundraiser, aligned with Senate leadership, and has never lost a statewide race. While Trump’s style may seem more compatible with Paxton, a messy general election in a state slowly turning purple might make Cornyn the safer choice.

There’s also the wildcard of Hunt, who could split the pro-Trump vote. A Black Iraq War veteran with ties to both MAGA activists and the GOP establishment, Hunt could force Trump to pick sides sooner than planned—or decide not to endorse at all. Hunt’s entry would only escalate the scramble for Trump's backing.

Still, Paxton leads most polls of the primary, and if he wins, it’ll likely boost Democrats’ chances of flipping the seat. Former Rep. Colin Allred has announced his campaign, and there are whispers that state Rep. James Talarico might join him in the primary. Texas has long been a white whale for Democrats—tantalizingly close in some cycles but always just out of reach. They believe a damaged GOP nominee like Paxton could tip the scales.

That’s exactly what national Republicans want to avoid. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and others have endorsed Cornyn, worried that nominating Paxton could jeopardize the seat—and the Senate majority.

Meanwhile, Trump is in no rush. As Texas Republicans trip over themselves to prove who's more loyal, he’s sitting back and soaking it in—relishing the spectacle of grown men groveling for his approval.

How the GOP becoming more MAGA could be bad for the GOP

Posted on April 16, 2025 by Emily Singer

A new poll commissioned by NBC News finds that 71% of Republican voters now identify with President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement—a massive jump from the 40% who identified as MAGA a little over a year ago.

Trump is, unsurprisingly, crowing about the poll. “A just out NBC Poll says that MAGA is gaining tremendous support. I am not, at all, surprised!!!” he wrote in a Truth Social post.

Of course, Trump is exaggerating the poll’s results, suggesting in his Truth Social post that the entire country is becoming MAGA—and not primarily Republicans, as NBC’s poll found.

“All of that shift is coming from Republicans,” Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who helped conduct NBC’s poll, told the outlet.

Ultimately, the fact that Trump's MAGA movement is steadily taking over more of the Republican Party could be a major problem for the GOP in upcoming elections. While Republican voters may support Trump, voters more broadly—including independents—do not.

A new poll by YouGov for the University of Massachusetts at Amherst found just 31% of independents support Trump. A Quinnipiac University poll from last week had similar findings, with just 36% of independents approving of the way Trump is handling his job as president, compared with 58% who disapprove. What's more, 51% of those independents in Quinnipiac’s survey “strongly disapprove” of Trump.

Of course, in swing districts, Republicans need to win over independents and possibly even some Democratic voters to get elected. Since the party has been taken over by MAGA, Republican candidates now have to embrace Trump and his movement to win primaries. And that could hurt them in a general election.

In fact, this dilemma has been a problem for Republicans in the past.

For example, in the 2024 election, MAGA Republican Joe Kent—an election-denying white nationalist now in Trump's administration—lost a House race in Washington State in 2024 to Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, even though Trump carried the district.

Kent was the GOP nominee after he ousted a normie Republican, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who had voted to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

And in 2022, MAGA hurt Republicans in the midterms, with Trump's hand-picked candidates losing races Republicans should have won in a typical midterm year when a Democrat was in the White House.

Trump’s picks sank Republicans' chances at holding the Senate that year, with nominees Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters, and Herschel Walker losing winnable Senate races in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, respectively.

What’s more, the MAGA candidates whom Trump endorsed in competitive House seats lost as well. That includes Trump superfan J.R. Majewski, who lost in Ohio’s Republican-leaning 9th District, as well as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who lost in Alaska’s at-large House seat.

Now, in 2025, even fairly normal Republicans are defending and embracing Trump, which will make it hard for them to shy away from him and the MAGA movement in the midterms. Indeed, since Trump was sworn in in January, Republicans have lost winnable state-legislative special elections and severely underperformed in a pair of House races in Trump country—a sign the backlash to Trump is already here.

Polling shows that non-MAGA Republican Susan Collins, a senator in Maine, is caught between a rock and a hard place. Collins is running for reelection in a state Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won in 2024. But her penchant for caving to Trump on certain issues, while standing up to him on things like tariffs, has made her unpopular with both Democrats and Republicans.

From a Public Policy Polling survey in March:

The feeling from both sides that Collins is letting them down leads to a rare poll finding in these polarized times where voters across the aisle agree about something. Asked whether they consider Collins to be a strong or weak leader majorities of both Harris (19/66) and Trump (28/51) voters call her weak. Overall just 24% characterize her as strong with 59% calling her weak.
These findings are putting Collins in a position where she could be vulnerable next year both in a Republican primary and the general election. 69% of Trump voters think Collins is ‘too liberal,’ presumably leaving her vulnerable to a challenge from someone to her right. But 69% of Harris voters think she’s ’too conservative,’ suggesting she may also struggle to win the sort of crossover support from Democratic leaning voters that’s fueled her success in the past.

As Collins would say, all signs say Republicans should be very “concerned” about elections over the next two years.

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