Get your popcorn: Republicans are set to rip each other apart in Texas

Posted on April 20, 2025 by Alex Samuels

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is staring down the biggest political threat of his career: a MAGA-fueled primary challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Paxton kicked off his Senate bid on April 8, announcing it on Fox News with host Laura Ingraham and blasting Cornyn’s “lack of production” in more than two decades on the job.

“We have another great U.S. senator, Ted Cruz, and it’s time we have another great senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas, and also support [President] Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way,” Paxton said. “And that’s what I plan on doing.”

The thing is, Cornyn has been reliably conservative and loyal to Trump. But that won’t stop this from likely turning into one of the ugliest, most expensive GOP primaries in recent Texas history—a full-on proxy war between the Republican establishment and the MAGA wing. Trump hasn’t endorsed yet, but he’s teasing that he’ll tip the scales before the March 2026 primary.

Cornyn has all the usual advantages: establishment backing, a deep bench of donors, and nearly $1.6 million raised in just the first quarter of this year alone. Paxton jumped in after the first-quarter fundraising filing deadline, so we’ll have to wait until July to see how much he’s raised.

But what Paxton may lack in cash, he makes up for in chaos.

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Last week, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, endorsed Cornyn with a barely veiled jab at Paxton, who’s been dogged by legal drama for years.

“John Cornyn is a leader who delivers on President Trump's agenda and for the people of Texas in the U.S. Senate,” Scott said. “He’s a proven fighter, man of faith, and essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”

Indeed, Paxton has faced securities fraud charges, was impeached by the GOP-led Texas House of Representatives for abuse-of-power allegations, and allegedly cheated on his wife. One brutal Cornyn campaign statement put it plainly: “Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

While Cornyn may not be a saint, next to Paxton, he sure looks like one. Paxton—whom Trump once called “a very talented guy”—attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the Capitol riot. He also tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, and more recently, he oversaw Texas’ first arrests under the state’s post-Roe v. Wade abortion ban. In general, he’s a walking ethics violation.

Still, Paxton has built a loyal following among the Texas GOP’s far-right base, which stood by him during his Republican-led impeachment in 2023. A January poll from the University of Houston, for instance, showed 36% of Texas GOP voters would “definitely” consider voting for him, edging out Cornyn (32%). And some polling has been even starker: A February poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates had Paxton up more than 20 percentage points over Cornyn—and, unfortunately, winning in a general election.

Even Texas’ other senator isn’t backing Cornyn. Instead, Cruz is playing neutral, likely because he’s read the same surveys.

“Both John and Ken are friends of mine,” Cruz said to reporters recently. “I respect them both, and I trust the voters of Texas to make that decision.” (Translation: Cruz is hedging.)

Republican voters nominating Paxton isn’t without risks, though.

Axios reports GOP strategists are warning Paxton could give Democrats their best shot at flipping the seat, even though Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. In 2024, former Texas Rep. Colin Allred lost to Cruz by over 8 points. (Allred is reportedly also considering a Senate run in 2026.)

Republicans are nervous enough that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is privately pushing Trump to endorse Cornyn, according to CNN.

But Cornyn’s got vulnerabilities that MAGA world loves to exploit, like how he backed aid to Ukraine and supported a bipartisan gun-reform bill after a gunman killed 19 students and two teachers at Uvalde’s Robb Elementary School. That alone might be enough for Paxton to slap him with the dreaded “RINO” label and ride away with the base.

Cornyn may have the donors, the party brass, and the resume—but in today’s GOP, that may not be enough. If Trump backs Paxton, Cornyn’s long Senate career could be toast. And if Paxton wins? Democrats may finally have a (narrow) shot at flipping a Senate seat in Texas.

Either way, this primary is shaping up to be a MAGA-fueled circus. Pass the popcorn.

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Texas makes first arrest under state’s terrifying abortion ban

Posted on March 18, 2025 by Alex Samuels

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton released a statement Monday boasting about the arrest of a Houston-area midwife for illegally performing an abortion, marking the state’s first criminal charge for abortion since its near-total ban was implemented in 2022.

The morally corrupt Paxton alleged that the midwife, Maria Margarita Rojas, “owned and operated multiple clinics” around Houston, including two in Texas’ most populous county, Harris County.

The statement said that Rojas was charged with performing an illegal abortion and practicing medicine without a license. The former charge is a second-degree felony, which comes with a potential sentence of up to 20 years in prison.

One of Rojas’ employees, Jose Manuel Cendan Ley, was also arrested for the same offenses, Paxton’s office announced on Tuesday.

“In Texas, life is sacred. I will always do everything in my power to protect the unborn, defend our state’s pro-life laws, and work to ensure that unlicensed individuals endangering the lives of women by performing illegal abortions are fully prosecuted,” Paxton said. “Texas law protecting life is clear, and we will hold those who violate it accountable.”

According to The Texas Tribune, Rojas, who identified herself as “Dr. Maria,” and Ley attempted to perform an abortion on someone identified as E.G. twice in March. In a separate bail motion, the state also alleged that Rojas performed an abortion in Harris County earlier this year.

The consequences for Rojas could be severe, with Texas law increasing the penalty for performing an abortion to a lifetime in prison. Rojas also risks getting her medical license revoked.

Similarly, Ley will likely be intensely scrutinized, especially since court records indicate that Ley is not an American citizen, but a citizen of Cuba.

“Individuals killing unborn babies by performing illegal abortions in Texas will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law, and I will not rest until justice is served. I will continue to fight to protect life and work to ensure that anyone guilty of violating our state’s pro-life laws is held accountable,” Paxton said on Tuesday.

Texas has one of the nation’s most extreme abortion laws, though it’s far from the only state with a ban. Notably, Texas has been at the forefront of draconian abortion restrictions, with its law being introduced to the state’s GOP-dominated legislature even before Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022.

Under current law, Texas only permits abortions in extreme circumstances—and even then it isn’t guaranteed. In 2023, Kate Cox of Texas was denied an abortion even after she received a lethal fetal diagnosis, for which her doctor said she needed an abortion to preserve her health and future fertility. As Paxton’s office threatened felony charges against any provider who dared to help her, Cox was forced to leave the state to receive the abortion care she needed.

Since then, Texas Republicans’ views on abortion have only gotten more extreme.

In December, Paxton’s office sued a New York doctor for prescribing an abortion pill to a Texas resident. And ahead of this year’s legislative session, a Texas lawmaker filed a bill that would reclassify abortion pills as controlled substances, though the measure still has not gained any traction.

A friend of Rojas’ told The New York Times that she was shocked by news of the arrest.

“She was on her way to the clinic and got pulled over by the police at gunpoint and handcuffed. She said they wouldn’t tell her what was happening. She said they took her to Austin,” fellow midwife Holly Shearman said.

Shearman, who identified herself as a conservative, said she didn’t “believe the charges” against Rojas.

“She never, ever talked about anything like that, and she’s very Catholic,” she said.

But, as feminist writer Jessica Valenti pointed out, Paxton’s office is likely to paint Rojas as a villain, regardless of the truth.

This is somewhat laughable coming from Paxton, of all people, who was impeached by the Texas House in May 2023 after he was accused of abusing his power to help a friend and political donor. He was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.

You’d think that Paxton would have bigger things to worry about, but, of course, he has his sights set on appealing to conservative voters by prosecuting a local midwife—or even running for the U.S. Senate.

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As shutdown looms, fringe Republican won’t let go of punishing Democrat

Posted on March 10, 2025 by Alex Samuels

To no one’s surprise, House Republicans can’t seem to get their priorities in line.

While some far-right Republicans are directing their attention to further punishing Democratic Rep. Al Green of Texas—who was ejected from the chamber after dissenting during President Donald Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress—the GOP caucus should really turn its attention toward preventing a federal government shutdown.

But leave it to the House Freedom Caucus to be too bogged down with scheming ways to show their fealty to Trump to work on averting a shutdown, which could furlough thousands of federal workers.

Both chambers of Congress only have until midnight Friday to pass a funding bill, and House Republicans only released their 99-page measure to avert a shutdown this past Saturday. The bill, which would fund federal agencies through Sept. 30, would increase defense spending and cut non-defense discretionary spending.

House Speaker Mike Johnson will bring the bill to the floor for a vote this week, likely on Tuesday, but we don’t know whether it will pass. Trump is publicly pressuring Republicans into voting for it, but Democrats will likely oppose it.

At least one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has already said he’d oppose the bill. And given the Republican’s razor-thin majority in the chamber, Johnson can’t afford to lose another GOP vote. Given this, one might think that Republicans would be working to whip up votes for the bill, but some of the more hardline caucus members have other priorities.

Rep. Al Green, Democrat of Texas, dissents during President Donald Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress on March 4, 2025.

According to Punchbowl News, Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona, a member of the far-right House Freedom Conference, authored a bogus resolution calling Green’s actions “a breach of decorum” and suggesting that he “be removed from his committee assignments.”

Removal from committee assignments is usually a punishment reserved for the worst of the worst. In 2021, Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who has a reputation for sharing baseless conspiracy theories and anti-Semitism, was stripped of her committee assignments after the discovery of her past statements endorsing the execution of Democrats, among other heinous things.

Later that year, Republican Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona, who made appearances at white nationalist events, also lost his assignments after he shared a violent animated video depicting him killing Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

In comparison, this form of punishment is often used as petty retribution against Democrats. For example, Rep. Eric Swalwell and then-Rep. Adam Schiff, both of California, were booted from the House Intelligence Committee in 2023 as punishment for voting to eject Greene and Gosar from their committees and for their roles in the impeachment of Trump.

Green’s worst offense is waving his cane in the air and declaring that Trump had “no mandate” to cut Medicaid, which he and other Republicans are pursuing to help pay for tax cuts for the rich.

That’s not much different—or worse—than what happened in 2022 when Greene and fellow Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado relentlessly heckled former President Joe Biden during his State of the Union address.

While Republicans certainly have a reputation for pettiness, there’s a sense that this new measure against Green won’t go anywhere. Johnson, for his part, reportedly thinks “that this measure should go away.”

That’s probably because he’s more focused on appeasing Trump and avoiding a shutdown. It’d be a bad look for Johnson, Trump, and the GOP at large if the government shut down less than two months into his second term.

The resolution against Green hasn’t formally been filed, but Republicans already feel like they won since they successfully censured him last week with the help of some traitorous Democrats.

In any sense, the move to further punish Green and pass a bill through the chamber at breakneck speed shows how far Republicans will go to ensure that Dear Leader gets what he wants.

But if anything, these moves don’t signify the GOP’s fealty to Trump so much as how truly terrified they are of him.

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Judges have 2 options: Rule in Trump’s favor or face death threats

Posted on March 7, 2025 by Alex Samuels

There were numerous, er, notable moments from President Donald Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, but perhaps one of the most striking was when he turned to Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, patted him on the back, and said he “won’t forget it.”

“Thank you again. Thank you again. Won’t forget it,” the president said while shaking Roberts’ hand after delivering his speech.

We don’t know exactly what Trump meant by this, considering all of the favors Roberts has done for him. After all, Roberts is responsible for authoring the decision that grants former presidents immunity from prosecution, essentially giving them power to commit crimes under the guise of “official acts” in office.

There was also the Roberts-authored ruling that narrowed obstruction charges for defendants accused of participating in the insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, and the time when the Supreme Court’s conservative majority usurped the Fourteenth Amendment, ruling that states could not disqualify Trump from the ballot despite the Constitution’s ban on insurrectionists holding office.

In short, Trump could have been thanking Roberts for a number of things, but the president insists that his gesture was merely routine.

“Like most people, I don’t watch Fake News CNN or MSDNC, but I understand they are going ‘crazy’ asking what is it that I was thanking Justice Roberts for? They never called my office to ask, of course, but if they had I would have told these sleazebag ‘journalists’ that I thanked him for SWEARING ME IN ON INAUGURATION DAY, AND DOING A REALLY GOOD JOB IN SO DOING!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, with “MSNDC” being a portmanteau of MSNBC and the Democratic National Convention.

Judge Juan Merchan presides over proceedings in the hush money case against President Donald Trump on May 7, 2024.

But as judges who bow to the president receive gratitude, those who don’t are met with death threats.

According to Reuters, law enforcement has warned federal judges that they are facing unusually high levels of threat as they attempt to uphold the law despite Trump and his allies’ efforts to undermine it.

Eleven judges expressed concern to Reuters about their physical security, saying that they’ve faced death threats in recent weeks.

These threats come as Elon Musk, the unelected billionaire who seems to have undue influence over the federal government, has made several posts on X attacking judges as “corrupt” or “evil.” In one case, Musk called for a federal judge’s impeachment after he blocked DOGE access to sensitive Treasury Department data.

And Musk isn’t the only one criticizing the judiciary.

In February, Vice President JD Vance posted on X that “judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power,” suggesting that Trump possesses ultimate authority.

While Roberts hasn’t been as compliant as some other members of the Supreme Court—and has even shown a willingness to break with his conservative colleagues—he’s still unlikely to serve as a check on Trump’s lawlessness.

At least two judges, Tanya Chutkan and Juan Merchan, faced threats for presiding over cases involving Trump where the verdicts were rejected by conservatives.

Meanwhile, the six Republican Supreme Court appointees, three of whom were appointed by Trump during his first term, have delivered some stunning victories in the president’s favor. And considering that conservative judges often assist Trump in his continued assault on democracy, he might have even more to thank them for in the future.

Roberts stated in December that “violence, intimidation, disinformation, and threats” jeopardize judicial independence, so it would be hypocritical if he’s now helping Trump dismantle existing statutes.

Trump has previously encouraged his followers to break the law on his behalf, and his actions on Tuesday will only serve to further politicize the courts.

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Democrats may retake the House in 2026. The Senate, not so much

Posted on February 17, 2025 by Alex Samuels

President Donald Trump has done nothing but inflict harm and terror since reentering the White House in January, and history suggests he’ll face a backlash in the 2026 midterm elections.

Historically, the president’s party usually loses congressional seats in midterm elections. In 2018, halfway through Trump’s first presidency, the public slapped the Republican Party with a 40-seat loss in the House, ultimately leading to years of hearings and two impeachments. In 2022, while Democrats beat expectations, they still lost enough House seats to slip into the minority. Ironically, that bodes well for their chances of retaking the House in 2026, especially given their dominance in a recent special election.

However, the Senate is another matter entirely.

This past week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report released its early Senate ratings for the midterms, which suggest the GOP majority will be impenetrable.

Republicans hold 22 seats that are up for reelection, and 19 are listed as solidly Republican, meaning those seats are all but certain to remain in the GOP’s hands (short of a miracle or a Mark Robinson-type figure running). An Ohio seat held by Sen. Jon Husted, who replaced Vice President JD Vance, is rated as “likely” Republican, meaning Democrats have a chance, if a slim one, of picking it up. After all, the party hasn’t won a statewide race in Ohio since 2018.

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But two races “lean” toward Republicans, according to Cook. That means they should be the best pickup opportunities for Democrats. They are held by Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. While the races could be grabbable, Collins won her 2020 reelection by 8.6 percentage points, despite that Democrat Joe Biden won Maine by 9 points in that same election. Meanwhile, Trump has carried North Carolina thrice.

There’s also Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who looks likely to retire. But he represents a deep-red state that Trump carried by more than 30 points in 2024.

Worse, in the 2026 same midterm, Democrats face a tough Senate landscape. According to Cook, the party will defend two “toss-up” seats, and both are in states Trump won last year: Georgia (Sen. Jon Ossoff) and Michigan (an open seat now that Sen. Gary Peters is retiring).

Then there’s Minnesota. Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced on Thursday that she would not seek reelection. Of course, Democrats have a deep bench of good prospective candidates for this seat, and Cook rates it as a “Likely Democratic” seat, but the party will no longer have the advantage of an incumbent running and Republicans will probably spend big on the race.

Democrats also face a potentially competitive race in New Hampshire. While incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen comfortably defeated her Republican opponent by nearly 16 points in 2020, Trump came within 3 points of winning the state in 2024. Due to that, Cook rates the seat as only “Lean Democrat.”

What complicates matters further for Democrats is that their toss-up and “lean” seats are arguably more vulnerable than either of the “Lean R” seats held by Republicans. That means the odds are higher that the GOP will keep or even increase its Senate majority in 2026.

It’s also important that Democrats don’t lose sight of other states where the president came within 10 points of winning in 2024: New Jersey (Sen. Cory Booker), New Mexico (Sen. Ben Ray Luján), and Virginia (Sen. Mark Warner). While Cook rates these seats as “Solid Democratic,” the party should at least be cautious and, at the very least, not express annoyance toward voters who simply want them to put up a fight.

Indeed, Democrats will have a lot on their plate in 2026. And it doesn’t help that polls show their voters aren’t too pleased with them, while Trump 2025 is so far stronger than he was in 2017. As CNN reported earlier this week, Trump’s second-term approval rating had been in the green for his entire term so far—while he had only 11 such net-positive days during his first term.

The good news, of course, is that Democrats are primed to take back the House due to Republicans’ precarious majority, which currently sits at 218 seats to Democrats’ 215. (Two vacancies, previously held by Republicans, are expected to go to the GOP once their special elections happen.) Unseating the GOP’s House majority will be especially easy if Trump’s approval fades (as it should) and if people turn on his policies.

But even if Democrats retake the House, that would make for a divided Congress, and the Senate arguably matters more. A compliant, GOP-controlled Senate will steadily confirm Trump’s judicial appointments (including potential Supreme Court vacancies). Trump likes to keep score, too, so he will likely try to confirm more judges than Biden did when Democrats had control of the Senate.

Still, a divided Congress is better than a united Republican-led Congress that’s slinging a wrecking ball into the federal government.

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Trump’s new low: Swiping at McConnell’s childhood polio

Posted on February 14, 2025 by Alex Samuels

President Donald Trump insulted Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and questioned his childhood battle with polio after the senator opposed anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s confirmation Thursday to be the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services.

When asked by a reporter whether McConnell’s past bout with polio influenced his “no” vote, Trump responded, “I have no idea if he had polio. All I can tell you about him is that he shouldn’t have been leader.”

The president added, “[McConnell’s] not voting against Bobby, he’s voting against me.” He later called McConnell “a very bitter guy.”

McConnell has voted against several of Trump’s recent Cabinet picks, including Tulsi Gabbard (for director of national intelligence), Pete Hegseth (for secretary of defense), and Kennedy. In the cases of Gabbard and Kennedy, McConnell was the only Republican to buck the president. With Hegseth’s vote, however, two other Republican senators—Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska—joined him in voting against Trump’s nominee.

In addition to calling Trump a “despicable human being,” a “narcissist,” and “stupid” in a recent biography, McConnell has blasted Trump’s sweeping use of tariffs. He said they were “bad policy” and would raise prices.

Trump’s “aggressive proposals leave big, lingering concerns for American industry and workers,” McConnell wrote in a Wednesday op-ed for Louisville’s Courier-Journal.

Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

McConnell wasn’t always this big of a thorn in Trump’s side, though. At the beginning of Trump’s first term, the senator helped Trump confirm hundreds of judges and fill three Supreme Court vacancies—moves that will shape the judiciary for a generation. (Notably, in 2016, McConnell helped block Merrick Garland, whom then-President Barack Obama nominated to the Supreme Court, from getting a hearing.) McConnell was also instrumental in Trump’s 2017 effort to pass sweeping tax cuts for the wealthy.

Despite minor disagreements, the Republicans’ relationship didn’t turn icy until the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. McConnell called Trump “practically and morally responsible” for the insurrection, but ultimately, he did not vote to convict the president.

The two also squabbled over the party’s failure to repeal the Affordable Care Act during Trump’s first administration. (More recently, McConnell said the repeal effort against the law seems “largely over.”) And they have traded a fair share of nasty personal attacks. Despite this, McConnell still endorsed Trump’s reelection bid.

McConnell, who will turn 83 this month, is up for reelection in 2026, but it’s unclear whether he’ll run again. He’s suffered a series of falls as of late, including two last week. A spokesperson for the senator suggested that “the lingering effects of polio in his left leg” contributed to it, but said the fall would not disrupt McConnell’s “regular schedule of work.”

It makes sense, then, that McConnell would vote against Kennedy, an alleged animal abuser with a history of attacking vaccination and promoting bogus conspiracy theories. Shortly after his confirmation, Kennedy appeared on Fox News and confirmed there were plans to cut the number of HHS employees. Notably, Kennedy said those who have been “involved in good science” (whatever that means!) have “nothing to worry about.”

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine nut now in charge of the Department of Health and Human Services

“If you care about public health, you’ve got nothing to worry about. If you’re in there working for the pharmaceutical industry, then I should say you should move out and work for the pharmaceutical industry,” he said.

On Thursday, Trump questioned McConnell’s mental acuity and said “he’s not equipped” to lead the GOP. This is the Trump way: viciously attack anyone who doesn’t do your bidding, regardless of how they’ve helped you in the past. It’s also a classic authoritarian tactic, and given that Trump is a petty narcissist, it’s not shocking that he’s going after McConnell.

That said, McConnell doesn’t deserve a pat on the back for voting against just a handful of Trump’s awful nominees. The senator’s pushback is not just politically convenient—he’s no longer Senate majority leader—but it also comes far too late in the game.

Maybe McConnell feels guilty for elevating Trump and is voting against the Cabinet picks as a way to make up for his past transgressions. Either way, given how much he helped Trump to get to where he is now, he’s just as complicit in the downfall of American democracy.

McConnell doesn’t get a pass.

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Nancy Pelosi will skip Trump’s inauguration

Posted on January 16, 2025 by Alex Samuels

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, will not attend President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday, her spokesperson confirmed to Daily Kos.

Pelosi is the second big-name Democrat to announce that they won’t attend. Earlier this week, former first lady Michelle Obama said she also plans to skip the event, which will take place on Monday. Other Democratic lawmakers who will play hooky that day include Reps. Jasmine Crockett of Texas, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts.

News of Pelosi’s pending absence was first reported by ABC News.

Pelosi’s spokesperson didn’t elaborate on why she won’t make the pilgrimage to the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., this go-around. Her absence may be because Pelosi is still recovering from hip surgery she underwent in Germany following a fall in December. It’s also possible that, like most Democrats, she just hates Trump.

No one would blame her if that were the case. The two have long had a tumultuous professional relationship. Since Trump’s first administration, their disdain for one another has seemingly only increased. Pelosi famously spent the final days of Trump’s first term trying to oust him from the Oval Office after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

Trump, for his part, spent much of his first term avoiding Pelosi, even as the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged states and lawmakers attempted to work together to deliver aid.

Since then, Trump has called Pelosi “crazy,” “crooked,” “evil,” and “sick,” among other abhorrent things. In November, he nearly called her a bitch during a campaign rally, though he stopped himself from saying the word outright.

Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally on July 29, 2023, in Erie, Pennsylvania.

“She’s a bad person, evil. She’s an evil, sick, crazy—” Trump said at a rally in Michigan amid his 2024 campaign, sounding out the letter “B” but stopping just short of uttering the obscenity. “It starts with a ‘B,’ but I won’t say it. I wanna say it.”

Pelosi’s inauguration absence marks a break in tradition for the octogenarian. In addition to attending Trump’s first inauguration, in 2017, ABC News reports that Pelosi has gone to 11 presidential inaugural events.

Senior leaders of both parties typically attend presidential inaugurations, regardless of the incoming president’s party. But Trump has no room to complain about Pelosi’s absence: He famously skipped President Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021.

In reality, Trump probably won’t notice that Pelosi’s gone. He’ll be too busy trying to impress his trio of tech-bro sugar daddies—Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg—who have been rewarded with plum seats at the inauguration. (All three men also donated at least $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.)

Meanwhile, while they will attend Monday’s inauguration, former presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama will skip Trump’s inaugural luncheon. According to NBC News, both Obama and Clinton were invited but declined. Bush’s office told the outlet that he never received an invite.

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Biden to leave office less popular than Trump

Posted on January 10, 2025 by Alex Samuels

Americans are giving President Joe Biden harsh reviews before he leaves office in less than two weeks, on Jan. 20. And worse than that, they appear to be judging him even more harshly than his two most recent predecessors, Donald Trump and Barack Obama.

According to a survey released on Friday by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, just one-quarter of U.S. adults (25%) said that Biden was a “good” or “great” president, compared with Trump, whom 36% of U.S. adults gave the same ranking after his first term in office ended, in 2021. (Notably, though, Trump had slightly higher “poor” and “terrible” ratings than Biden.)

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Even more remarkable is that the survey about Trump was conducted shortly after the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. And this is backed up by other polling as well. For instance, between Jan. 7-20, 2021, Trump’s approval ratings dropped from 42% to 39%, according to 538’s average. But at present, Biden’s job approval ratings sit at about 37%, according to 538’s average.

The result of this past November’s election, where Trump got very close to earning a majority of the popular vote, showed that voters preferred a return to Trump versus a continuation of Democratic rule, perhaps especially one tied to Biden. But now we have even more verification of the degree to which voters, after seeing both men govern, simply (if slightly) prefer Trump to Biden.

According to a national tracking poll by Civiqs, just 38% of registered voters have a favorable view of Biden. In fact, he has been below 40% since Nov. 10, making the odds of a rebound ahead of Trump’s inauguration pretty slim. Meanwhile, 45% of voters have a favorable view of Trump, according to Civiqs, and his favorability has been steadily increasing since about February 2023.

Civiqs Results

These data points starkly illustrate just how tarnished Biden’s legacy has become, despite an impressive domestic record. Not only did he pass landmark legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, to help combat climate change, but Trump is also inheriting a strong economy, for which he has Biden to thank.

The issue? Polling suggests voters either don’t know this or believe Biden was insufficient in other ways. The AP-NORC survey found that only 2 in 10 Americans (22%) think Biden made good on his campaign promises. A larger share, 38%, said that Biden did not keep his word. The remaining 39% said he tried but failed to keep his campaign promises.

Biden is also faring considerably worse than Obama was at the end of his presidency. AP-NORC found that Obama left his second term in office with a majority of Americans (52%) describing his tenure as “good” or “great.” This squares with data released earlier this week by Gallup, which found Biden’s standing is similar to that of former President Richard Nixon, who resigned amid the infamous Watergate scandal. (Unlike the AP-NORC survey, Gallup’s involved a retrospective assessment of past presidents, not a contemporaneous one.)

As other politicos have pointed out, Trump seems to be enjoying a honeymoon period since his win in November. It’s possible, of course, that four years of Biden caused the electorate to reassess Trump, who once had dismal approval and favorability ratings too.

Remarkably, though, Trump has retained relative popularity amid two impeachments, many federal indictments, two assassination attempts, and some of the most unrelentingly negative media coverage in modern history, among many other faults of his. Such a deep catalog of sins would leave most politicians unable to revive their careers, but somehow Trump did—and he’s unfortunately doing better than ever.

The good news for Biden, if there is any, is that Americans’ negative views toward him may change over time. After all, Gallup found that other presidents who left with low approval ratings—including George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter—saw Americans’ perception of their presidencies warm with time.

Plus, knowing Trump, he’ll surely squander his goodwill with the American electorate in due time. Every honeymoon must come to an end, including Trump’s. And with the high number of unpopular campaign pledges he’s made, he’s likely to only accelerate that timeline.

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