Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:

Debt Limit Update: McCarthy's Very Weak Hand

The Speaker is talking tough to appease the right, but he needs the Dems to bail him out

Is this theater? Are we screwed? Should we panic? Buy gold? Bury our money in the backyard?

The debt ceiling reports from the legacy media are nothing short of horrendous. And confusing. Much of it is laundering the viewpoints of the GOP leadership aides upon which Capitol Hill reporters depend for scoops. Their “journalism” excuses the irresponsible position of Republicans and puts all of the onus of preventing default on Joe Biden and the Democrats. I don’t blame anyone for being confused.

Here’s what you need to know based on my experience working in the White House during the last two Republican-engineered debt ceiling crises.

Politico Playbook:

GOP ratchets up debt ceiling demands

Congressional Republicans have not only rejected a new White House offer to essentially freeze domestic spending at FY2023 levels, they’re now demanding work requirements for SNAP recipients that are more rigid than those they originally proposed. They’re also insisting on adding new immigration provisions from the GOP’s recently passed border bill — which, mind you, Republicans didn’t include in their own debt ceiling bill. (More on both in a second … )

The GOP’s dug-in position comes at the end of a week when both President JOE BIDEN and Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY acknowledged that a budget deal would have to be bipartisan. Vote-counters on the Hill believe that any eventual deal will need the backing of about 100 House Democrats since a number of conservatives will never support a compromise. Yet given what Republican negotiators are now countering, they’re far from that number.

The White House is not happy with the new GOP demands. This morning, Biden told reporters that the GOP needs to move off their “extreme positions.”

Jennifer Rubin/Washington Post:

Biden uses good cop, bad cop against the GOP’s debt ceiling extortion

Some Democrats would prefer to ignore Republicans entirely, doing away with the perennial hostage-taking and encouraging Biden to exercise his presidential power to deny Republicans any advantage. That, however, includes significant risks, including the loss of support among the usual suspects, notably Sens. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). White House aides point out that a legal challenge over the 14th Amendment would be inevitable, and while the legal battle played out, the markets would be in turmoil. Indeed, the White House detected some troubling movement in the bond markets recently, though that calmed down once reports of constructive negotiations emerged.

The true test will come if and when a default deal materializes. If Biden avoids making cuts, essentially agreeing to a continuing resolution for the remainder of his term with some window dressing (e.g., coronavirus funds claw back) but no implementation of counterproductive work requirements for benefit programs, it would amount to a huge win for the president and for Democrats. A bipartisan deal that leaves his agenda in place and puts to bed the default issue for the remainder of his term would give him the best outcome, given that Republicans do, after all, control the House.

A reminder of how much media is addicted to horse race. The story is who the GOP electorate is, not who the candidates are.

EJ Dionne/Washington Post:

The poor are being held hostage in the debt ceiling standoff

Here’s what must not happen: Our country’s least advantaged citizens should not be forced to pay the largest price to prevent an economic catastrophe. Making the poor poorer should never happen; it certainly shouldn’t happen on a Democratic president’s watch.

That issue is at the heart of this needless and destructive battle. House Republicans decided to hold the economy hostage to slash assistance for low-income Americans while protecting tax cuts for the wealthy.

That’s a factual statement, not a partisan complaint.

With Tim Scott and Ron DeSantis announcing, can 61% of Chris Sununu and 100% of Chris Christie be far behind? It's a chance for anti-Trump attacks to get tested and maybe carry over to the general.

Hey, you never know. Trump might be indicted or something.

Will Bunch/Philadelphia Inquirer:

Why was this massive Trump scandal hiding in plain sight for 28 months?

A shocking allegation that then-President Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani was selling pardons for $2 million got lost. Why it matters now.

To the very end, Trump ignored the practices of past presidents — who’d worked mostly off petitions that had been investigated by the Justice Department’s Office of the Pardon Attorney — and granted clemency largely for connected folks that he tended to know, from close cronies like Roger Stone and Steve Bannon to his reality-TV pal Rod Blagojevich, the disgraced Illinois governor, to his son-in-law’s dad, Charles Kushner. Then there was an additional category: those who’d paid good money to Trump World insiders to plead their case.

On Jan. 17, 2021, the New York Times published an article headlined: “Prospect of Pardons in Final Days Fuels Market to Buy Access to Trump.” Based on more than three dozen interviews with key players, the Times confirmed that wealthy convicted felons were paying tens of thousands of dollars to insiders like a former Trump personal attorney, John Dowd, in the rush to gain clemency. To be clear, hiring a lawyer promising special access — while perhaps unseemly — is not new and probably not unlawful. But a Times passage about convicted ex-CIA leaker John Kiriakou, who paid an unnamed Trump associate $50,000 with a contingent promise of $50,000 more if a pardon was granted, included a jaw-dropping if unproven allegation:

“And Mr. Kiriakou was separately told that Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani could help him secure a pardon for $2 million. Mr. Kiriakou rejected the offer, but an associate, fearing that Mr. Giuliani was illegally selling pardons, alerted the F.B.I. Mr. Giuliani challenged this characterization.”

Susan Stubson (Wyoming Republican)/ New York Times:

What Christian Nationalism Has Done to My State and My Faith Is a Sin

 I first saw it while working the rope line at a monster-truck rally during the 2016 campaign by my husband, Tim, for Wyoming’s lone congressional seat. As Tim and I and our boys made our way down the line, shaking hands and passing out campaign material, a burly man wearing a “God bless America” T-shirt and a cross around his neck said something like, “He’s got my vote if he keeps those [epithet] out of office,” using a racial slur. What followed was an uncomfortable master class in racism and xenophobia as the man decanted the reasons our country is going down the tubes. God bless America.

I now understand the ugliness I heard was part of a current of Christian nationalism fomenting beneath the surface. It had been there all the time. The rope line rant was a mission statement for the disaffected, the overlooked, the frightened. It was also an expression of solidarity with a candidate like Donald Trump who gave a name to a perceived enemy: people who do not look like us or share our beliefs. Immigrants are taking our guns. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. You are not safe in your home. Religious freedom is on the gallows. Vote for me.

The messages worked. And in large part, it’s my faith community — white, rural and conservative — that got them there. I am a white conservative woman in rural America. Raised Catholic, I found that my faith deepened after I married and joined an evangelical church.

Russia is, apparently, still listening.

Jamelle Bouie/New York Times:

There Is a Reason Ron DeSantis Wants History Told a Certain Way

As it happens, I’m reading the historian Donald Yacovone’s most recent book, “Teaching White Supremacy: America’s Democratic Ordeal and the Forging of Our National Identity,” on the relationship between history education and the construction of white supremacist ideologies in the 19th and 20th centuries. It’s an interesting book, filled with compelling information about the racism that has shaped the teaching of American history. But I mention it here because, in one section on Southern textbook writers and the demand for pro-slavery pedagogy, Yacovone relays a voice that might sound awfully familiar to modern ears.

As Yacovone explains, pre-Civil War textbook production was dominated by writers from New England. Some Southerners had, by the 1850s, become “increasingly frustrated with the ‘Yankee-centric’ quality of the historical narratives.” They wanted texts “specifically designed for Southern students and readers.” In particular, Southern critics wanted textbooks that gave what they considered a fair and favorable view to the “subject of the weightiest import to us of the South … I mean the institution of Negro slavery,” as one critic put it. 

Steven Beschloss/”America, America” on Substack:

Banning Books, Suppressing Thought and The Rejection of Empathy

A new PEN America report finds that the right wing's systematic effort to block reading, learning and thinking is spreading

Among the most frequently banned books this school year is Gender Queer: A Memoir by Maia Kobabe. Banned in 15 school districts, this autobiographical story with comic illustration is a sensitively written and touching portrayal of Kobabe’s journey of gender identity—the kind of thoughtful rendering that can provide a struggling young person light in the darkness as they search to better understand themselves.

Also topping the list: Flamer by Mike Curato (banned in 15 districts), Tricks by Ellen Hopkins (banned in 13 districts) and The Handmaid’s Tale: The Graphic Novel by Margaret Atwood and Renee Nault (banned in 12 districts).

My hometown, Newtown, Connecticut, is in the midst of a book-banning controversy which also includes Curato’s book, “Flamer.” His letter to the editor of the Newtown Bee is directed to students of the local high school—where his book remains in circulation, at least for now—and reprinted here in full, with Curato’s explicit permission.

The following letter to Newtown High School Students has been received for publication by The Newtown Bee:

To the Students of Newtown High,

This letter is for you. Regardless of the outcome of this book challenge, and the other challenges that will come, there are things I need you to know.

Remember you have agency. It’s hard to have others making decisions for you. But your life is in your hands. You have a voice. Use it. Don’t let anyone silence you. Let it out. Speak it, sing it, write it, paint it, dance it. Censorship is fought with expression. That is your first amendment right, no matter your age or station.

Remember you are the future. Remember this moment. Remember how you feel. Remember what everyone said. Soon you will be an adult member of the community. What rights will you uphold? What injustices will you fight to repair? Who else in your community has been relegated to the margins? How can you help them? Lead with facts and compassion.

And above all else, know this: You deserve to be here. No matter who you are, what you believe, or who you love. When I was young, it was implied that there was no room in this world for someone like me. Not unless I followed their rules. I tried to be the person I thought everyone wanted me to be, and it broke me. Don’t do that. Don’t let anyone use shame to dictate how you should live your life. I almost lost my life to that lie. But I survived, and in living my truth, I have found the greatest joy. Flamer is my truth and my joy. It may make some people uncomfortable, but their comfort is NOTHING compared to your safety and happiness.

Remember: They can ban my book, but no one has the right to ban YOU.

Thank you

Mike Curato

Author and illustrator of Flamer

Still in the news:

Simon Rosenberg/”Hopium Chronicles” on Substack:

Last Few Weeks Have Been Good Ones for Democrats

Strong Biden Launch, Important Electoral Wins, Rs All Sorts of Ugly

All of this is why I think this election is all about expansion. Rs are giving us an incredible opportunity to grow; we have the infrastructure to do it; now that the campaign is up it is time to get going. So much is possible for us now.

We Just Keep Winning, Everywhere- As we did in 2022, so far this year Dems are performing at the upper end of what is possible. We’ve won Supreme Court races, mayoral races, state rep races. We’ve won in Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We’ve flipped two cities, Jacksonsville and Colorado Springs, which have been Republican for decades. Just look at how awful the GOP brand is now (below). These are horrific numbers. We need to stay on offense and keep taking more political real estate away from them.

Will Bunch/The Philadelphia Inquirer:

From Philly to Colorado Springs, America voted no on extremism Tuesday

Voters in cities and suburbs — in the Philly mayor's race, Jacksonville, and Colorado Springs — chose moderation Tuesday.

In Pennsylvania’s Delaware County, in a special state House election that would determine whether lawmakers in Harrisburg would have the votes to put their own version of an abortion ban before voters, a surge in mail-in ballots was the first sign of a landslide victory for the pro-choice Democrat. Just north in Montgomery County, Republican primary voters decided they’d finally had enough of right-wing county commissioner Joe Gale, a rabid Donald Trump supporter who’d wanted to ban mail-in ballots and survived calls for his 2020 ouster after labeling Black Lives Matter “a hate group.”

It was a bad night for extremists all over America. In Colorado Springs, Colo., known for conservative politics (and as the site of six high-profile mass shootings since 2007), Yemi Mobolade, a Nigerian immigrant, shocked the local Republican establishment to become the city’s first elected Black mayor. In Jacksonville, Fla. — the nation’s largest city with a GOP mayor, run mostly by Republicans for 30 years — the candidate backed strongly both by DeSantis and the ultraconservative, book-banning Moms for Liberty lost to Democrat Donna Deegan in a huge upset.

Ronald Brownstein/The Atlantic:

Why Outspoken Women Scare Trump

Mocking the sexual-harassment reckoning is a feature of Donald Trump’s political persona.

In part, the laughter demonstrated the strength of Trump’s grip on his supporters. But the reaction also displayed something discussed much less often: how much of the GOP coalition is resistant to more assertive roles in society for women, which has produced, among other things, more frequent and visible accusations of sexual impropriety against men.

The stunning laughter when Trump belittled Carroll underlined how for many Republican voters, skepticism about women’s claims of unfair or improper treatment now intertwines with hostility to other forms of cultural change, including growing racial diversity and demands for equal treatment from the LGBTQ community. “We’re in the middle of a backlash to racial and gender progress, in which Trump has normalized the expression of racist and sexist beliefs,” Tresa Undem, a pollster for progressive organizations who specializes in attitudes about gender and race, told me. “He’s constantly tapping into these beliefs.”

Julia Azari/POLITICO:

Trump’s Dominance in the GOP Isn’t What It Seems

He’s presiding over a movement, not a party.

For years, political scientists have judged presidents on their strength as party leaders — how they’ve been able to grow a coalition and cement a majority — but Trump is changing the way we think about politics.

Instead, it now seems that Trump is not so much a party leader, but a movement figure. This might seem like the kind of distinction that only academics care about. But it’s key to understanding the current state of American politics, and the dilemmas now facing GOP leaders as the MAGA movement threatens to completely overtake the Republican Party itself.

Bill Scher/Washington Monthly:

Republicans Want to Impeach Mayorkas. How About Giving Him a Medal?

The Homeland Security secretary and Cuban refugee is being pilloried by the right and some on the left for his immigration policies, but the Biden administration is succeeding in slowing the influx of refugees and ending the cruelty of the Trump era.

What the administration was up to over the past two years may have looked confusing. First, the Biden administration tried to rescind Title 42, upsetting conservatives. Then federal judges stayed the order while it was being litigated. In the meantime, the administration expanded the use of Title 42, upsetting progressives. And then, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ended the entire COVID-19 public health emergency. Conservatives applauded the end of Dr. Anthony Fauci-era restrictions but not the end of Title 42 powers which disappeared along with them.

Because Title 42 was being used as a deterrent to migration, the Biden administration’s moves to end it were seen as willfully—to some, recklessly—inviting more migration. But that was an oversimplification. The goal has always been to craft a more orderly system of migration.  

Greg Sargent/The Washington Post:

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s impeachment stunt wrecks a big MAGA myth

Greene’s call for Biden’s impeachment is a joke: It’s unlikely McCarthy will seek it, and it’s not at all clear that Republicans would have the votes for it. Still, as Greene told reporters, GOP leaders have engaged in serious dialogue with her about what impeachment would look like.

What’s more, McCarthy reportedly feels genuine pressure to impeach Mayorkas, partly because of Greene’s campaign against him. All this shows that Republicans must take seriously her ability, as a leader of the party’s MAGA wing, to tap into sentiments surging inside the GOP base.