Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Being in Congress is about more than just getting elected

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Bess Levin/Vanity Fair:

Over 100 House Republicans Will Skip GOP Retreat Because They Hate Each Other So Much: Report

They apparently don’t want to spend any more time together than they’re contractually obligated to.
When he abruptly announced his decision yesterday to quit Congress early, [Rep. Ken] Buck said, of the dysfunction on Capitol Hill: “It is the worst year of the nine years and three months that I’ve been in Congress and having talked to former members, it’s the worst year in 40, 50 years to be in Congress.… This place has just devolved into this bickering and nonsense and not really doing the job for the American people.” Specifically calling out his fellow Republicans, he said: “We’ve taken impeachment, and we’ve made it a social media issue as opposed to a constitutional concept—this place keeps going downhill, and I don’t need to spend more time here.”

16. Just as Clinton’s economic policies finally ended the presidencies of Roosevelt and Johnson, Biden’s economic policies are finally ending the presidencies of Reagan and Clinton.

— The Editorial Board (@johnastoehr) March 14, 2024

Jeff Tiedrich/”everyone is entitled to my own opinion” on Substack:

Handy Oakley’s days in Congress are numbered as the House GOP freaks the fuck out boo fucking hoo

the House GOP is in total disarray and it’s super fucking hilarious.

right now, House Republicans are running around the halls of Congress with their pants around their ankles and soup pots on their heads and banging the fuck into the walls and each other — it’s twenty-megaton clownshoes bedlam.

they’re resigning left and right. their majority is shrinking. half the them hate the guts of the other half — every single one of them is an incompetent imbecile who couldn’t govern their way out of a paper bag.

the collective IQ of the whole worthless lot of them couldn’t generate enough wattage to warm a leftover slice of pizza, which makes it all the more amusing to watch them freak the fuck out and melt down into a rancid puddle of stupid.

Yeah, but what do you really think, Jeff?

Want to hear me give my case for the importance of NATO? Over at @UnPopulistMag, I debate this very issue with my discourse partner @shikhadalmia https://t.co/AUuYDC6Yj6

— Berny Belvedere (@bernybelvedere) March 14, 2024

Will Bunch/The Philadelphia Inquirer:

Voters don’t have a clue about how much worse Trump’s second term would be Many voters seem fooled that Trump 47 would be a bland replay of Trump 45, not the authoritarian nightmare he actually plans.

Gameli Fenuku, a 22-year-old Black college student in Richmond, Va., is exactly the demographic you’d think would never vote for Donald Trump in November — and indeed, he may not. But Fenuku told the New York Times he hasn’t ruled out supporting the presumptive GOP nominee, either. That’s because he remembers his teen years under Trump as a time when a lot of things were a lot better than he sees them now — especially the economy.

[...]

The Virginia college student is the face of a phenomenon that is shaping the 2024 rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden with less than eight months to go. The polls and interviews suggest a lot of voters are responding no to the ex-president’s borrowing of Ronald Reagan’s famous question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” This despite Trump’s army of detractors calling this “collective amnesia” about a twice-impeached president who nearly four years ago was wondering if Americans should be drinking bleach to tackle COVID-19.

Less than three-and-a-half years after the U.S. electorate made Trump the first 21st-century president to lose reelection — and by a solid, seven million vote margin — a poll taken by a liberal climate group found 52% of today’s voters now approve of Trump’s former presidency.

Bill Scher/Washington Monthly:

Biden doesn't need guilty verdicts to win

Any strategy to defeat Trump should not be premised on help from the judiciary.

Most national polls show Donald Trump leading Joe Biden. But when pollsters ask whom would voters prefer if Trump was convicted of a felony, Biden always comes out on top.

This understandably makes Democrats eager for Trump's many trials to get underway, and deeply anxious when Trump's delay tactics succeed.

But the delays are an implicit reminder that nothing is certain about the outcome of the Trump trials, and any strategy to defeat Trump should not be premised on help from the judiciary.

Delay is the name of the game, and judges and Justices seem all too eager to play along.

New: Trump flip-flopped on a possible TikTok ban because he wants to try to drive a wedge between Biden and young voters. Here's how he plans to do it with some thoughts on how to fight back https://t.co/9wF4idNJfA

— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) March 14, 2024

Philip Bump/The Washington Post:

Polling won’t tell you who will win in November, but it’s not meant to

So let’s use the occasion of Biden’s comments to do three things. First, let’s establish that polling is an effective way to measure public opinion. Second, let’s clarify that does not mean that a poll conducted today will accurately capture who will win the presidential election. And third, let’s further clarify that even the last polls conducted before this year’s election will almost certainly show no more than who is more likely to win.

Those three things might seem contradictory, but they are not. If you use a paper map to plan your route to your destination, you’ll have a good sense of how long it will take. You should not, however, assume that it will provide you with a Google Maps-like estimate of your arrival time to the minute. It’s not real-time, for one thing, and it’s simply not designed to be as precise.

An anti-fascist consensus, reimagined?   Biden’s State of the Union offered a vision of what it means to “defend democracy” that should, if taken seriously, transform America – and help re-think liberalism – rather than just restore pre-Trump “normalcy” (link in bio):   🧵1/ pic.twitter.com/bpUtyF75Ke

— Thomas Zimmer (@tzimmer_history) March 13, 2024

Greg Sargent/The New Republic:

Trump Is the Big Loser as the GOP’s Impeachment Farce Implodes

The case against Trump is based on things that actually happened, while the case against Biden is based largely on inventions.

That might seem counterintuitive. What does Trump’s culpability have to do with the case against Biden? Yet step back a bit and the dynamic becomes clear: The GOP arguments for impeaching Biden are revealed at their most absurd when the two cases are laid side by side.

What’s more, when the GOP’s game is fully exposed—that it’s not just about hatching fake evidence of crimes by Biden but also about muddying the waters around evidence of crimes by Trump that is very real—that’s when the GOP posture becomes most indefensible.

Signs of this dynamic are everywhere. On Tuesday, the House Judiciary Committee held a hearing that purported to grill Robert Hur, the special counsel who recently released a report exonerating Biden that also contained damning but gratuitous claims about his age and memory...

But the hearing was largely a bust for Republicans. The savvy observers at Politico’s Playbook called it a “dud” and reported that it has prompted Republicans to look for an “off ramp” from their impeachment push, which turns on a separate set of claims about the Biden family’s business dealings that have also largely collapsed.

POLITICO:

As Biden impeachment stalls, House GOP turns to backup plans

While Republicans have considered other paths to antagonize the White House for months, those plans have taken on fresh importance as a vote to impeach seems doomed.

But Republicans are determined not to give up on a push that’s still a high priority for the GOP base — especially since abandoning it altogether could alienate conservatives they need to turn out in November. So they’re exploring backup options to keep the spotlight on so-far-unproven allegations that Biden misused the public offices he’s held to benefit his family’s businesses.

Those Plan Bs include legislative reforms like tighter financial disclosure and foreign lobbying guardrails; criminal referrals for Hunter Biden and others to the Justice Department; a potential lawsuit for DOJ officials’ testimony and calls from some within their conference to just keep investigating, pushing the probe closer to Election Day.

Any of those off-ramps come with risks of their own — namely that they require cooperation from the Senate or the Justice Department — but, the current GOP thinking goes, Republicans would at least have something to show to their anti-Biden voters with their thin majority on the line.

In other words, having made stuff up from the beginning, they continue to make stuff up. I can’t imagine that’s going to satisfy the base, but it’s all they’ve got.

Between his unpopularity and the structural forces against third parties, Menendez would be lucky to get 5% of the vote. #NJsen https://t.co/iRTJLzWrfP

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) March 14, 2024

Cliff Schecter and Tony Michaels on Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson of North Carolina:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The Hur hearing was a political disaster—for Republicans

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

First came the transcript, in which Joe Biden was clearly documented to remember the date his son Beau died, if not the year (that’s normal for most people). And then came the hearing in which Robert Hur could not remember complementing Biden on his memory until Democrats read him the transcript. This part in particular, from the transcript (via The New York Times), is telling:

And when Mr. Biden provided a lengthy description of the layout of his house in Delaware — portions of which were redacted in the transcript for security reasons — Mr. Hur observed that Mr. Biden appeared to have “a photographic understanding and, and recall of the house.”

The level of credulity with which that document was taken ought to prompt some reflection in light of what we saw from Biden at SOTU, what we see in the full transcript, Hur now working with GOP campaign operatives, etc https://t.co/PschNP36io

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) March 12, 2024

Philip Bump/The Washington Post:

The GOP’s new Biden attack is weakening its old one

Biden “knew the rules,” Jordan added, “but he broke them for $8 million in a book advance!”

This argument, by itself, isn’t tenable. There’s no indication that the material Hur references was essential to the Beau Biden story or to the publisher offering the advance. Hur’s report indicates that the material wasn’t used in the book. But view it from Jordan’s perspective: At last, he has a tenuous link between Biden taking money and his doing something described by a third-party as inappropriate.

Comer, given a chance to ask questions of Hur, tried to backstop the impeachment inquiry without much effect. Unfortunately, Hur’s actual work significantly undercut the idea that Biden was working in cahoots with his family.

completely reprehensible that Republicans smeared Biden for not remembering when his son died when that's clearly a lie pic.twitter.com/tp5SO0qZGC

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2024

The New York Times:

Anti-Trump Group of Republicans Lays Out $50 Million Plan of Attack

The group, Republican Voters Against Trump, will run a series of homemade videos of Americans who voted for him in the past but say they can no longer do so in 2024.

The group, Republican Voters Against Trump, first emerged in the 2020 campaign and made a return appearance for the 2022 midterm elections. It is run by Sarah Longwell, a leading figure in Never-Trump politics whose focus groups and polling are a staple of center-right podcasts and have made her a go-to figure for political reporters aiming to decipher the motivations behind Trump supporters.

Not hard to tell which party had the momentum after the State of the Union https://t.co/J1JVkpCCjE

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) March 11, 2024

Judd Legum and Tesnim Zekeria/”Popular Information” on Substack:

New data explodes myth of crime wave fueled by migrants

The most comprehensive look at violent crime in the United States in 2023 will come when the FBI publishes its national Uniform Crime Report. But that will not happen until the fall. But, as crime analyst Jeff Asher explains in his newsletter, the FBI report is based on individual Uniform Crime Reports submitted by each state. Asher identified 14 states that have released their Uniform Crime Reports publicly. The data has not been completely finalized and could be adjusted slightly before formally submitting it to the FBI. But this data is the best early look at violent crime trends last year.

Asher found that both murder and violent crime declined in 12 of 14 states.

Swalwell: You said to President Biden, “you appear to have a photographic understanding and recall.” Did you say that? Hur: Those words do appear in the transcript Swalwell: Never appeared in your report Hur: It does not appear in my report pic.twitter.com/jKJA6HCesd

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 12, 2024

CNN:

GOP Rep. Ken Buck to leave Congress at end of next week

Buck criticized dysfunction on Capitol Hill in discussing his decision to leave, telling CNN’s Dana Bash, “It is the worst year of the nine years and three months that I’ve been in Congress and having talked to former members, it’s the worst year in 40, 50 years to be in Congress. But I’m leaving because I think there’s a job to do out there.”

“This place has just devolved into this bickering and nonsense and not really doing the job for the American people,” he said.

SPEAKER JOHNSON says Buck didn’t give him a heads up ahead of this announcement “I didn’t know,” he said, adding that he looks forward to chatting with him https://t.co/c7n4RGKno1

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) March 12, 2024

POLITICO:

Bloodbath at RNC: Trump team slashes staff at committee

Dozens of staffers are expected to be let go.

All told, the expectation is that more than 60 RNC staffers who work across the political, communications and data departments will be let go. Those being asked to resign include five members of the senior staff, though the names were not made public. Additionally, some vendor contracts are expected to be cut.

[...]

Trump advisers have described the RNC’s structure as overly bloated and bureaucratic, which they believe has contributed to the party’s cash woes. The RNC had about $8 million at the end of December, only about one-third as much as the Democratic National Committee.

Under the new structure, the Trump campaign is looking to merge its operations with the RNC. Key departments, such as communications, data and fundraising, will effectively be one and the same.

Republicans just spent four hours broadcasting wall-to-wall, live TV coverage of Trump’s many criminal indictments and reminding everyone Biden was cleared. Brilliant as usual.

— Jim Messina (@Messina2012) March 12, 2024

Enter the Bucks County Beacon, in which a local paper gives us better, more truthful coverage than many national outlets are giving us on this story—all while crediting POLITICO with the original scoop.

Shocking Online Manifesto Reveals Project 2025’S Link To A Coordinated ‘Christian Nationalism Project’

“The Statement on Christian Nationalism” seeks to implement a Scripture-based system of government whereby Christ-ordained “civil magistrates” exercise authority over the American public.

Approximately 100 right-wing organizations have signed onto Project 2025, an expansive plan for controlling (and in some cases dismantling) federal agencies in the event that Trump or another Republican wins the presidential election this year. Many of these organizations are led by Christian fundamentalist political operatives, suggesting that they may use the plan to force all Americans to submit to their extreme religious beliefs.

The Bucks County Beacon has just found explosive new evidence that seems to validate this concern.

The Beacon’s discovery follows an earlier report by Politico journalist Heidi Przybyla, which tied the Center for Renewing America (CFRA), an official Project 2025 partner, to an internal memo expressly listing “Christian Nationalism” as a priority for a second Trump term.

if you're writing Biden off based on the early general election polls, you're making a very big analytical mistake https://t.co/epMFilrp2f

— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) March 12, 2024

Cliff Schecter on Trump’s treatment of Nikki Haley voters:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A not so Super Tuesday, and a November election for the amnesiacs

New York Times:

Do Americans Have a ‘Collective Amnesia’ About Donald Trump?

It’s only been three years, but memories of Mr. Trump’s presidency have faded and changed fast.

But as Mr. Trump pursues a return to power, the question of what exactly voters remember has rarely been more important. While Mr. Trump is staking his campaign on a nostalgia for a time not so long ago, Mr. Biden’s campaign is counting on voters to refocus on Mr. Trump, hoping they will recall why they denied him a second term.

“Remember how you felt the day after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016,” the Biden campaign wrote in a fund-raising appeal last month. “Remember walking around in disbelief and fear of what was to come.”

Early still, but "Project 2025 isn't real" is my Take of the Day candidate. https://t.co/wLt5HL9Kbm pic.twitter.com/SszW8HZYa1

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) March 5, 2024

CNBC:

Trump-allied election groups burned through millions with no evidence of widespread fraud

KEY POINTS
  • Groups allied with Donald Trump have been struggling with their finances, according to tax records.
  • Officials have debunked Donald Trump’s conspiracy that the 2020 election was stolen or there was widespread voter fraud.
  • Another problem that has plagued some of the groups is they didn’t receive any fundraising help from Trump himself.

Primary results @GOP #SuperTuesday@NikkiHaley percentages: VT 47% CO 40% MA 36% VA 33% ME 25% AR 24% NC 23% TX 19% Seems many GOP voters don't want Trump? Recall Haley got 43% in NH; 40% in SC; Trump lost 49% in Iowa https://t.co/j2OtEnHYfi

— Tim McBride (@mcbridetd) March 6, 2024

The above were 9 pm results, but the point still stands (Haley won Vermont). Some but not all of those Haley voters were Democrats. More were independents. Many Republicans chose not to vote for Trump even though he cleaned up in both delegates and vote percentage. And no one fully understands what that means for fall. Still, Haley is out.

Nikki Haley will suspend her presidential campaign and leave Donald Trump as the last major Republican candidate https://t.co/qtG4wSSZq0 via @sppeople & @MegKinnardAP

— Chad Livengood (@ChadLivengood) March 6, 2024

Super Tuesday exit poll data from CBS:

Party ID of Haley voters and Trump voters?

As in previous contests, much of Haley's support comes from voters who are not Republican. In Virginia,  this is particularly striking. Republicans make up just a third of those voting for her in that state.

In Virginia, about a quarter of Haley's supporters are Democrats.

In North Carolina, most of her supporters are independents.

Molly Jong-Fast/MSNBC:

Trump's Super Tuesday 'win' comes at a cost

Nikki Haley wants to harness the "never Trump" vote. Can she help make one of Team Trump's worst fears come true?

Despite never having a chance at winning, Haley’s quest quickly became quixotic, exposing cracks in Trump’s election strategy and structure. After all, Trump has always run on appealing to the GOP base’s basest nature. He won by shifting the electorate, getting traditionally low-turnout voters to vote for him. If that base’s enthusiasm falters even a little bit, that alone could be enough for Biden to hold on to the presidency.

Haley showed us that there are real fractures not only in Trump’s strategy, but in the GOP primary base. Per The Associated Press, "According to AP VoteCast surveys of the first three head-to-head Republican contests, 2 in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him in the fall." Now that he has 91 criminal counts against him and is heading into a criminal trial in March, it seems even more unlikely that the “never Trump” contingent will change their minds in November.

.

The complaining around Schiff’s strategy betrayed a fundamental misreading of normie Democrats, who *want* to focus attacks on Republicans, and not have a months-long intra-party feud. pic.twitter.com/HvQBnsbbXU

— Bill Scher (@billscher) March 6, 2024

Meanwhile Joe Biden also romped. Not much drama. Hey, did you know for the most part Biden outperformed Obama in 2012?

Arizona Republic:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema won't seek reelection, ending chances of a 3-way Arizona Senate race

Ending more than a year of speculation about her future, U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema said Tuesday she won’t seek reelection because extremism in both major parties makes it impossible to tackle the nation’s needs.

In a video message on social media, Sinema, I-Ariz., rattled off what she views as a successful legislative record and lamented that “Americans still choose to retreat further to their partisan corners.”

"It’s all or nothing. The outcome is less important than beating the other guy,” she said. “The only political victories that matter these days are symbolic. … Compromise is a dirty word. We’ve arrived at that crossroad and we chose anger and division. I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

She did herself in by fighting for tax cuts, alienating Democrats along the way. Matt Fuller/X via Threadreader put together a good summary of her saga:

I can’t tell you exactly why Kyrsten Sinema is leaving Congress. But I can tell you that @sambrodey’s coverage of her was genuinely exceptional and some of the most revealing reporting about Sinema or any other politician. Small thread: 
In Oct. 2021, Sam reported on how Sinema’s bizarre transformation into a centrist troll had burned some of her personal friendships.

Yes. Sinema wasn’t beaten. She lost it. https://t.co/dBJQeSboFC

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) March 6, 2024

David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:

The Biden Administration’s Going All-In on Its Push for a Gaza Ceasefire

Vice President Harris’ meeting with Netanyahu’s rival—and her passionate words on behalf of Palestinians—are just a couple ways the White House is trying to halt the fighting.

You could hear the urgency in the vice president’s remarks when she passionately addressed the plight of the people of Palestine both on Sunday when she spoke in Selma, Alabama, and on Monday after she met with Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz—who also happens to be Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s primary domestic political rival, and who made the visit to D.C. despite protests from Netanyahu.

Alon Pinkas/Haaretz:

The U.S. Finally Realized: Netanyahu Broke an Unbreakable Alliance

Over 15 years, through hubris and rudeness, Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to turn Israel from an ally into a high-maintenance, ongoing crisis whose actions are inconsistent with U.S. interests in the Middle East

Gantz's meetings with Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and lawmakers in Congress are not ordinary meetings. They are meetings reserved for a prime minister, or someone they think will or should be premier.

More than anything, they are meant to rile Netanyahu – the self-ordained ultimate maven on U.S. affairs whom the Americans have concluded is a liability, not an ally.

Thanks @FoxNews! pic.twitter.com/nHz7u5hkpa

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 6, 2024

Cliff Schecter on Hunter Biden and impeachment:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: It’s still primary season and not general election season

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Rick Hasen/Election Law Blog:

Supreme Court Decision in Trump Colorado Disenfranchisement Case Almost Certainly Being Released Monday at 10 am ET (So It’s Technically Out Before Super Tuesday and Colorado Voting) and It Will Not Let Colorado Disqualify Trump

Opinion releases usually happen when the Justices physically take the bench in Court, and the next opportunity for that which was listed on the Supreme Court website was March 15.

But the Court just changed its website to indicate that one or more opinions is going to be posted on the Supreme Court website at 10 am ET Monday morning. And the Justices won’t be taking the bench to do it.

While they want to get it out before Tuesday, early voting in Colorado has already started.

Greg Sargent/The New Republic:

Liz Cheney Nukes the Supreme Court Over Trump Delay—and Hands Dems a Weapon

What percentage of voters know that Trump can cancel prosecutions of himself if he wins back the White House?

The court’s decision is terrible news, to be sure, but it gives Democrats an opportunity to clarify a few crucial points, and they should seize it.

First, Democrats should stress that voters need to know before the election whether Trump committed crimes—and this is due to them as a matter of right. Second, Trump is seeking these delays to end all prosecutions of himself if he regains the White House—to corruptly place himself above the law by pardoning himself or having his handpicked lickspittle attorney general do it. Democrats must say clearly that if the court helps delay the trial until after the election, it will be enabling him to do that.

Rep. Tony Gonzales on if Rs are squandering their majority: "Here we are fighting with each other over X, Y and Z. You think China is doing that?" Joe Manchin: "This 118th Congress, I"m ashamed to end my career in the absolute worst performing Congress in the history" of the US pic.twitter.com/VJgvpC0KhV

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 3, 2024

The Hill:

Haley takes the victory in DC GOP primary

Nikki Haley will win the Washington, D.C., Republican presidential primary, netting her first victory of the GOP nominating process, Decision Desk HQ projects.

The win for the former United Nations ambassador breaks a streak of more than a half dozen victories for former President Trump to start out the GOP contests for the nomination. It’s a much-needed triumph for Haley to show she can top Trump somewhere, but she still has a long road ahead of her.

She has pledged to stay in the race at least through Super Tuesday this week, when more than a dozen states will vote. But she was not able to win any of the early-voting states in January and February, and no upcoming state obviously jumps out as a clear opportunity for her to win.

Still, the win in the winner-take-all D.C. primary will give her all of its 19 delegates. Voting in the District took place across three days from Friday to Sunday.

This will only add to Trump’s instability. It won’t really help Haley win. 

Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:

Some Quick Thoughts on that Bad NYT Poll

Another NYT/Siena poll shows Trump leading, panic ensues

Hey Dan, You Got Any Good News?

Sure. Here are some positive points for you:

  • President Biden’s path to winning this race is pretty simple (on paper) — win back people who have voted for him in the past, vote for Democrats in other elections, and share ideological alignment with Democrats on issues such as abortion and climate change. We don’t have to convince a single Trump 2020 voter to win.

  • There are fissures to exploit in Trump’s coalition. Even though Trump has locked up the Republican nomination, Nikki Haley is still getting 20% of the Republican primary vote. Each and every one of these Haley voters is a persuasion target for Democrats.

  • Biden is dramatically overperforming with senior citizens. He leads Trump by 6 points in this poll which, as pollster John Della Volpe points out, is an 11 point improvement over 2020.

  • 53% of voters think Trump committed serious Federal crimes and one in five of those voters still plan to vote for Trump — that’s another group of people we might be able to move back into our column.

  • 19% of voters disapprove of both Biden and Trump. These are the so-called “double-haters” Biden is currently winning those voters 45-33. In 2020, he won them overwhelmingly, so there is obvious room to grow.

None of this easy. There are no silver bullets, and nothing will change the race overnight. As indicated by this and numerous other polls, it’s evident that the President is encountering substantial challenges. However, as I previously emphasized, I firmly believe that Joe Biden has the potential to secure victory in this election.

Weary of another round of Biden age chatter? I discuss the paradoxes of class in 2024: Biden’s program is lifting up the working class but Trump will be done in by his weakness with the college educated. Key: the anti-Dobbs, anti-vulgarity vote Free access https://t.co/dYnSBJebx2

— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) March 3, 2024

Tyler Pager/Washington Post:

The private chats and chance encounters that shape Joe Biden’s thinking

After conversations with his grandchildren, fellow churchgoers and Delaware neighbors, the president brings their worries to the Oval Office

As president of the United States, Biden has access to practically unlimited information. He receives a daily classified briefing from the world’s most powerful intelligence apparatus. He can mobilize the vast machinery of the U.S. government to deliver data on various topics. He can convene meetings with world leaders, Cabinet officials or experts in any field — and often does.

But to a remarkable degree, Biden relies on direct personal interaction for information: catch-up chats with his children and grandchildren; talks with fellow parishioners after Mass; exchanges with workers on his property in Wilmington, Del; spontaneous calls to former colleagues. From consumer prices to masking guidelines to loneliness, the president brings their worries to the Oval Office.

Interesting piece on who Biden talks to, especially given the bubble built around every White House. 

“I’m the only one who has ever beat him. And I’ll beat him again.” “If you thought you were best positioned to beat someone who, if they won, would change the nature of America, what would you do?” https://t.co/vp5XsDGlzX

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) March 4, 2024

Evan Osnos/The New Yorker:

Joe Biden’s Last Campaign

Trailing Trump in polls and facing doubts about his age, the President voices defiant confidence in his prospects for reëlection.
Back in the Oval Office, where winter sun shone through glass doors, I asked Biden if it was possible for him to reach voters who had those beliefs. He treated the question as a provocation: “Well, first of all, remember, in 2020, you guys told me how I wasn’t going to win? And then you told me in 2022 how it was going to be this red wave?” He flashed a tense smile. “And I told you there wasn’t going to be any red wave. And in 2023 you told me we’re going to get our ass kicked again? And we won every contested race out there.” He let that sink in for an instant and said, “In 2024, I think you’re going to see the same thing.”

Against the will of Netanyahu, @gantzbe is about to visit Washington for meetings with @VP Harris and NSC adviser Jake Sullivan. Bibi has ordered Israel’s ambassador to boycott the meetings. I wager @POTUS will drop by; might even invite Gantz into the Oval Office. Gantz is a…

— Martin Indyk (@Martin_Indyk) March 3, 2024

Will Bunch/Philadelphia Inquirer:

Mitch McConnell is the arsonist who set America on fire and ran away

A corrupt Supreme Court, looming dictatorship and a "Handmaid's Tale" society is the America Mitch McConnell created and runs away from.

You gotta hand it to Mitch McConnell, the GOP’s 82-year-old Senate minority leader who arguably has done more to bend, staple and mutilate America in the 21st century than anyone else. He did so with zero charm or charisma, in the slow, ageless and ultimately inscrutable manner of the giant Galapagos turtle he so weirdly resembles.

But last Wednesday, the ancient gambler of the Senate looked carefully at his final hand. He knew when to run.

Alexander Bolton/The Hill:

GOP senators face Trump civil war with McConnell retiring

The race to replace Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is laying bare the power struggle between pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republicans in the Senate.

GOP lawmakers aligned closely with the former president are urging any candidate wanting to succeed McConnell to embrace Trump. Other Republican senators want McConnell’s successor to keep a healthy distance from the controversial former president.

Cliff Schecter notes that Steve bannon is going after Rupert Murdoch:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Mr. Gantz goes to Washington

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

We begin today with Itamar Eichner of Ynet News who was the first to report that Minister without portfolio and Knesset opposition leader Benny Gantz will be traveling the United States today for high-level talks about the situation in Gaza; apparently without the initial approval of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This visit comes at a time when efforts to secure a hostage exchange deal have been ongoing for quite some time, and amidst reports in the U.S. that the American government is losing patience with Netanyahu's conduct in the war - and allegations that he is being restrained by his government partners Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The Prime Minister's Office expressed anger at the publication of Ynet and clarified that Gantz is flying without the Prime Minister's approval, contrary to the government regulations, which "require every minister to coordinate his trip in advance with the Prime Minister, including approval of the travel plan."

According to Netanyahu's associates, "the Prime Minister clarified to Minister Gantz that the State of Israel has only one Prime Minister." From Washington, Gantz is expected to continue to London.
Earlier this week, President Joe Biden emphasized that Israel must pursue peace with the Palestinians for its long-term survival. He cautioned that the country's "incredibly conservative government" risked losing international support, during an appearance on “Late Night with Seth Meyers.”

Trevor Hunnicutt of Reuters reports that among the officials that Minister Gantz will meet with are Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and members from both parties of Congress.

The talks, first reported by Reuters, are expected to span topics including reducing Palestinian civilian casualties, securing a temporary ceasefire, the release of hostages held in Gaza and increasing aid to the territory, a White House official said.

"The Vice President will express her concern over the safety of the as many as 1.5 million people in Rafah," the official said, adding that Israel also had a "right to defend itself in the face of continued Hamas terrorist threats."

A statement from Gantz confirmed that he would meet with Harris, as well as with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Republican and Democratic members of U.S. Congress.
"Minister Gantz personally updated the prime minister on his own initiative on Friday of his intention to travel, in order to coordinate the messages to be transmitted in the meetings," the statement said.

Yasmin Rufo and David Gritten of BBC News write about petitions to the Israeli and Egyptian governments by journalists and news organizations for international journalists to have access to Gaza.

Only one foreign journalist has been granted entry into Gaza through Egypt on an escorted visit. CNN's Clarissa Ward - who is among the signatories of the letter - was able to spend only a few hours on the ground in the southern border city of Rafah with an Emirati medical team in December.

The letter calls on Israel's government to "openly state its permission for international journalists to operate in Gaza".

It also asks Egyptian authorities to allow foreign press access to the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza.

[...]

The broadcasters represented in the letter are the UK's BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Sky News, and the US outlets ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC.

A number of journalists who signed the letter have been reporting from Israel during the conflict.

As I have said, while I have some sympathy for the Gazan journalists already operating at great risk to their lives and the lives of their loved ones, I am under no illusion that those Gazan journalists have operated independently of the influence of Hamas.

Nor do I entirely trust the reporting of the number of Western journalists embedded with the IDF; after all, the IDF will show those journalists what they want seen and reported.

Most of the international journalists there have reported on conflicts and wars before. Allowing them freedom to report on the war without “embedding” may also serve to better protect those Palestinian journalist who have been losing their lives.

Turning to domestic matters, Super Tuesday is coming up and with the presidential primaries all but wrapped up, I’ll focus on downballot items beginning with High Point University’s poll showing a substantial lead for candidates in both the Republican and Democratic primaries for governor of North Carolina.

In the Democratic primary for governor of North Carolina, Josh Stein has support of 57% of the vote among likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters. He is followed by Michael R. Morgan (14%), Gary Foxx (10%), Chrelle Booker (10%) and Marcus Williams (9%).

In the Republican primary for governor, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson has 51% support among these likely and self-reported Republican primary voters. Bill Graham and Dale Folwell have less support with these voters, receiving 33% and 17% of the vote, respectively. [...]

There is no clear front-runner in the Democratic primary for attorney general of North Carolina. Democratic likely and self-reported primary voters appear to be split between Jeff Jackson (36%), Tim Dunn (33%) and Satana Deberry (31%).

Avi Bajpai of the Charlotte Observer reports that a Republican Super PAC appears to be funding a Democratic candidate for North Carolina Attorney General.

A mysterious new super PAC that has spent close to a million dollars promoting Satana Deberry in the Democratic primary for state attorney general is being funded by the Republican Attorneys General Association, new election filings show.

The group, And Justice For All, started buying TV, radio and digital ads last month in support of Deberry, the Durham County District Attorney who is running against U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson of Charlotte and Fayetteville attorney Tim Dunn in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

Details initially available about the super PAC’s expenditures, such as the bank and media buyer it was using, showed ties to groups typically used by Republicans. But not much else was known about the group or who was behind it. [...]

As of Feb. 29, the group had spent more than $950,000 on TV and radio ads, digital ads, mailers, and text messages in support of Deberry.

The ads promote Deberry’s liberal record and suggest she’s the “real progressive” in the race, according to Charlotte radio station WFAE.

Francine Kiefer of The Christian Science Monitor says that it looks like a ballot initiative to link California’s mental health systems with its affordable housing systems appears likely to win the support of a majority of California voters.

As states across America grapple with the twin challenges of rising homelessness and mental illness, California’s counties are clamoring for more places like ASC. But there aren’t enough of them. Neither is there enough affordable housing in this expensive state. Despite billions spent in recent years, homelessness has increased, and many unhoused people struggle with mental illness and addiction. All of this has rolled into a perfect storm impacting public health and safety, businesses, and quality of life – making homelessness a top concern for California voters.

Politicians, not surprisingly, are under tremendous pressure to do something. Their latest effort, Proposition 1, which will be on the March 5 ballot, would overhaul the state’s mental health system to firmly link it to housing. For the first time, counties would be required to spend behavioral health dollars on housing for homeless people with mental illness and addictions. Proposition 1 also includes a $6.4 billion state bond to secure supportive housing and treatment places for homeless people, with $1 billion for veterans. Gov. Gavin Newsom dubs it “treatment, not tents.”

The measure has its critics. One main objection is that more county behavioral health dollars for housing means fewer for mental health services. While the ballot measure promises more than 11,000 places for treatment and living, the independent state legislative analyst says the new measure would reduce statewide homelessness “by only a small amount.” Yet the legislation behind the measure passed with near unanimity in Sacramento last year. Opinion polling shows nearly two-thirds of likely voters support it.

Christopher Hooks of Texas Monthly takes a look at the struggle of Texas state House Speaker Dade Phelan to win his primary in spite of the endorsement of former governor Rick Perry as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton seeks revenge on those who chose to impeach him last year.

On February 16, money has come calling to the Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Nederland, south of Beaumont, where Speaker Dade Phelan is holding a campaign rally. It is the week before the start of early voting in the Republican Primary. Phelan is suffering through an unprecedentedly brutal bid to be reelected Speaker. He faces two candidates in this first round to retain his seat, the most formidable being David Covey, a right-wing Christian conservative and the former chair of the Republican party of Orange County, which straddles the Louisiana state line near Beaumont. (The third candidate, Alicia Davis, a hairdresser from Jasper, has not been showered in attention and resources like Covey has.) The most powerful Republicans in the state have either endorsed Covey or are staying out of the race altogether. Phelan hopes to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff and smooth the way to his next Speaker vote. [...]

Ever since the state’s founding, the political religion of the state has been economic development. Southeast Texas is littered with its temples. On the night of the rally, moonlight illuminates clouds of water vapor and other emissions rising from petroleum refineries in the distance. The Port Arthur Canal snakes around the airport, which has just one daily flight left, an American Eagle shuttle to Dallas–Fort Worth. The namesake of the airport, Jack Brooks, represented the area in Congress for 42 years as a conservative Democrat—as Perry was once. In his day, politicians gained power to help their constituents. In 1994, in a sign of changing times, Brooks lost the general election to Republican Steve Stockman, a right-wing ideologue who spoke the new vernacular of talk radio and was later convicted of felony money laundering.

Nothing to do with Democratic Party politics, of course, but given the surprise impeachment of Paxton last summer, I was curious.

Anita Hofschneider of the climate blog Grist reports that a federal study shows climate change may lead to the exposure of nuclear waste in some parts of the world. 

A federal report by the Government Accountability Office published last month examines what’s left of that nuclear contamination, not only in the Pacific but also in Greenland and Spain. The authors conclude that climate change could disturb nuclear waste left in Greenland and the Marshall Islands. “Rising sea levels could spread contamination in RMI, and conflicting risk assessments cause residents to distrust radiological information from the U.S. Department of Energy,” the report says.

In Greenland, chemical pollution and radioactive liquid are frozen in ice sheets, left over from a nuclear power plant on a U.S. military research base where scientists studied the potential to install nuclear missiles. The report didn’t specify how or where nuclear contamination could migrate in the Pacific or Greenland, or what if any health risks that might pose to people living nearby. However, the authors did note that in Greenland, frozen waste could be exposed by 2100.

[...]

The authors of the GAO study wrote that Greenland and Denmark haven’t proposed any cleanup plans, but also cited studies that say much of the nuclear waste has already decayed and will be diluted by melting ice. However, those studies do note that chemical waste such as polychlorinated biphenyls, man-made chemicals better known as PCBs that are carcinogenic, “may be the most consequential waste at Camp Century.”

Carmen Morán Breña of El País in English writes about the just-finished Mexican Open tennis tournament which took place in Acapulco. It’s was the city’s first major event since Hurricane Otis devastated the town this past October.

People say that crises bring opportunities. Many imagined a new-look Acapulco following the devastation of Hurricane Otis, an apocalypse that would usher in peace through the reconstruction of the city, or so the most optimistic people thought. However, the calm has not followed the storm, at least not yet. During these days, in which the battered pearl of the Pacific is staging the Mexican Tennis Open as a symbol of the yearned-for normality, all is still not well in the region. There are still long queues in supermarkets to exchange the vouchers issued by the government for food before they expire and many of those affected are waiting to be censused to receive the expected aid. Violence has resulted in various deaths in the last week alone, with the customary scenario of bodies shot to death or severed heads accompanied by narco-messages. Public and private transportation has ceased to operate on several occasions in protest against the attacks perpetrated by organized criminal groups. In the meantime, the governors have hailed the big Latin American tennis event with grandiose phrases: “The port lives, shines and will shine stronger than ever. We want a new Acapulco,” recently exclaimed the governor, Evelyn Salgado.

Hoteliers still estimate that it will take two years before they can run at full capacity, given the extent of the destruction caused by the hurricane that swept in from the sea in the early hours of October 26. Health officials are working tirelessly to bring to an end as soon as possible the dengue epidemic that caused the collapse of the health services. Acapulco is still struggling to get back on its feet, which is why the tennis tournament, hosted in the city since 2001, represents two sides of the coin. On the one hand, it is an opportunity to stimulate tourism and employment. On the other, it is evidence that basic needs and outbreaks of violence cannot be camouflaged with a sporting showcase. [...]

Perhaps nothing can stop crime. People thought at first, the hurricane that devastated the city would drive the corrupt narcos out of Acapulco and the community could rebuild itself with other social parameters. But this was not the case. The assassinations have been ongoing and there are many who believe that the economic gains from the reconstruction will provide a lifeline for the gang members and their diverse circle, which sometimes involves politics and the business sector. The crisis of violence in the transport sector certainly includes some of this. “We thought that with Otis’ battering they would have no one to extort money from, all the businesses closed, but they have targeted the transport sector,” says the journalist Muñoz Cano. Indeed, the mafias that fight over transportation have triggered numerous crises in Acapulco and the whole state of Guerrero, causing deaths and placing the state government in a complex situation. Burned taxis, murdered drivers. The state responds to each crisis by pledging to provide more police to reinforce the routes, but nothing can deter crime.

Finally today, Gary Younge writes for The New York Review of Books (paywalled $$$) about the rise and (continuing) fall of the British Empire.

Britain’s diminished status has been anticipated for some time. It was, to my mind, best captured by the broadcaster Peter Jennings on New Year’s Eve 2000 as he watched an impressive fireworks display cascade over the River Thames:

It’s something of a reminder for those people who pay attention to history that in 1900, when Queen Victoria was on the throne, she presided over the largest empire in history. Four hundred million people, one fifth the earth’s surface…. And now as we come to the end of the century, for all this fantastic show that they’ve put on…Britain’s possessions have dwindled…but the Falkland Islands are still British.

Britain’s decline is relative, of course (its economy remains the sixth largest in the world), but it is real (it was fifth until the end of 2021, when India, its erstwhile colony, overtook it). Decades ago this diminishment was understood to be gradual and generational. After the Suez Crisis in 1956, there was an attempt to retreat to this smaller position in an orderly manner. I’m fifty-five, and my generation’s parents grew up in a virtually monoracial country, reliant on heavy industry, with the globe colored pink to mark British territories. I was raised to learn the metric system, the names of new countries—Zimbabwe, Benin, Burkina Faso—in a nation that saw itself as the stable conduit between Europe and America, with postcolonial ties across the globe. My children’s cohort has adjusted to an economy in which Indian restaurants employ more people than steel, coal, and shipbuilding all put together, and membership in the EU is a fact of history. [...]

What has happened to Britain? For all its faults, the British ruling class used to take itself seriously—if anything, too seriously. No one would accuse it of doing that now. The deluded act of self-harm otherwise known as Brexit was the most glaring example: for momentary electoral gain and an internal party truce, former prime minister David Cameron asked the country a question to which he did not want to know the answer and then resigned when they got it “wrong.” A nation that insisted on an aggressive, isolating version of its own sovereignty has spent the past eight years struggling to figure out what to do with it. But Brexit also acted as a sifting mechanism, elevating the least serious to the top.

I mostly remember watching MSNBC on New Year’s Eve 1999 but I recall ABC’s Peter Jennings’s talking a lot about clocks. New Year’s Eve 2000 in London was by far the best fireworks display of the night...and of course, Big Ben going off at the turn of the millennium did make it seem as though it was a New Year even though it still remained seven hours away here in Chicago.

And, of course, there was this stunner on New Year’s Eve 1999. And yes, there was a slight concern about those Russian missiles.

Try to have the best possible day everyone!

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Michigan primary vote still sinking in

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Philip Bump/Washington Post:

Michigan’s choose-your-own-lesson presidential primary

Trump and Biden won their respective contests, but the lessons each should take aren’t entirely clear

The focus on Biden is heavily a function of this public, state-specific effort to send him a message. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, there’s an ongoing protest vote, mostly manifested in support for former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley’s technically existent challenge to Trump’s bid for the nomination.

In Michigan, that meant that Trump underperformed Biden in nearly every county….

[But there’s more conflicting data]

What’s the lesson? Take your pick. You have six charts to pick from.

The most important lesson, certainly, is the most boring one, the one for which no chart is needed: Biden and Trump both won easily and will almost certainly be the two major-party candidates on the ballot in November.

Does Haley's declining primary vote mean Trump is really OK with the GOP base? Let's look at 1992 Buchanan got 37% in NH against the incumbent Bush As his vote in later primaries generally ranged b/t 10-30% he drew less attention Final pop vote was Bush 73 Buchanan 23 ...

— Bill Scher (@billscher) February 28, 2024

...But to my eye a Haley drawing ≈20 is still a significant undercurrent of discontent with the presumptive nominee, even if it's less than what she got in NH/SC.

— Bill Scher (@billscher) February 28, 2024

Danielle Lee Tompson/”Failure to Communicate” on Substack:

CPAC as Simulacra

Spending a few days in the flagship event of the American Conservative Union told me a lot about the exhausted discourse in our country

CPAC is a simulacra, that is to say a copy of a copy of itself, reflecting not only a larger trend in Republican politics but American politics generally.

This year I sojourned to the Gaylord Resort in Maryland’s National Harbor not so much for the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) that has been going on since Reagan times, but some other work and interviews related to my book. Perhaps I also went because, at this point in my life as a scholar of conservative media, it is my habit.

Something this year about CPAC felt hollow, a brightly branded wrapper that did not hold much by way of substance. There were few big American political names beyond Trump. Guests looked in vain for the usual hotel suite parties paid for by eager lobbying groups. I did not smell the sweaty pheromones of drunk college Republicans in their khaki pants or grandma’s pearls about to lose their virginities— they barely showed up. Aside from some guy getting dragged away by security dressed in a white KKK robe and a few errant neo-Nazi Groypers in sunglasses and trench coats, I did not even see the usual robust number of sketchy far-right figures who typically troll the conference. They just seemed like a handful of lame young men who hadn’t grown up.

New polling showing that when Democrats explain how Republicans killed the toughest border bill in decades, Republicans' 15 point advantage on the border DISAPPEARS. Time to go on the offense, team.https://t.co/mw7YjuoTzQ

— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) February 29, 2024

Florida Politics:

Ron DeSantis says Citizens Insurance is ‘not solvent’

Gov. Ron DeSantis is telling the nation that people in his state shouldn’t rely on the state-run insurer of last resort, raising new questions about Citizens Property Insurance ahead of what is expected to be an active hurricane season.

“It is not solvent and we can’t have millions of people on that because if a storm hits, it’s going to cause problems for the state,” the second-term Republican Governor said on CNBC’s “Last Call.”

The Governor’s comments are particularly interesting as they were in the middle of a rumination about private insurers bringing new capital into the state, in which he claimed that “about 30% of those policies from Citizens” taken out by “new private insurance (companies) will actually be able to offer lower rates to those people.” That suggests roughly 70% of people are paying more since the take out of Citizens’ policies.

77-13: Senate approves short-term funding for the federal government in two stages through March 8 and March 22 to avert Friday's midnight shutdown deadline. 60 votes were needed. House passed the CR earlier today 320-99 and it now heads to President Biden to be signed into law. https://t.co/G4trH7eyts pic.twitter.com/RqS8K3qfkn

— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) March 1, 2024

Bolts magazine:

Red State AGs Keep Trying to Kill Ballot Measures by a Thousand Cuts

Organizers say state officials have stretched their powers by stonewalling proposed ballot measures on abortion, voting rights, and government transparency.

When a coalition of voting rights activists in Ohio set out last December to introduce a new ballot initiative to expand voting access, they hardly anticipated that the thing to stop them would be a matter of word choice.

But that’s what Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost took issue with when he reviewed the proposal’s summary language and title, then called “Secure and Fair Elections.” Among other issues, Yost said the title “does not fairly or truthfully summarize or describe the actual content of the proposed amendment.”

So the group tried again, this time naming their measure “The Ohio Voters Bill of Rights.” Again, Yost rejected them, for the same issue, with the same explanation. After that, activists sued to try and certify their proposal—the first step on the long road toward putting the measure in front of voters on the ballot.

“AG Yost doesn’t have the authority to comment on our proposed title, let alone the authority to reject our petition altogether based on the title alone,” the group said in a statement announcing their plans to mount a legal challenge. “The latest rejection of our proposed ballot summary from AG Yost’s office is nothing but a shameful abuse of power to stymie the right of Ohio citizens to propose amendments to the Ohio Constitution.”

These Ohio advocates aren’t alone in their struggle to actually use the levers of direct democracy. Already in 2024, several citizen-led attempts to put issues directly to voters are hitting bureaucratic roadblocks early on in the process at the hands of state officials.

Now that we are done with the Hunter impeachment sham, I want to remind everyone of the real White House family scandal. Why did Jared Kushner receive $2 billion from Saudi Arabia months after leaving his post overseeing Middle East policy? pic.twitter.com/U110bks3cJ

— Congressman Robert Garcia (@RepRobertGarcia) February 29, 2024

David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:

Biden and Netanyahu Both Hope the Other Is Out of Power Soon

The dysfunctional relationship between the two leaders has gotten so bad they’re both imagining a near future where they can work with the other’s successor

This week, U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demonstrated yet again why theirs is the foreign policy world’s worst marriage.

They don’t share the same goals. They don’t trust each other. And they just can’t seem to communicate.’

It is no wonder that both—as well as those close to each of them—spend much of their time hoping for a divorce and a chance at happiness with a new partner. The reality, however, is that those hopes are not likely to come to fruition and we may be enduring the consequences of this dysfunctional relationship for quite some time to come

On the other hand, a major political crisis is coming to a head in Israel as the Defense Minister (Gallant) proposes drafting yeshiva students for military service (they currently are exempt). The ultraorthodox parties keeping Netanyahu in power would be forced to resign on principle, which would in turn bring down the government. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile in Haaretz:

Biden Has a Vision for Israel's Future. Netanyahu Doesn't

It is unprecedented that a superpower crafts and offers a long-term grand strategy for a significantly smaller, asymmetrical ally, as U.S. President Joe Biden is doing with his plan for a new Middle East. The least Israel can do is give the plan the attention it deserves

For the first time in its 76-year history, Israel has the opportunity to substantially improve its strategic situation and environs – and astonishingly, it is saying no.

The scale and magnitude of the strategic benefits the so-called Biden plan potentially provide to Israel cannot be exaggerated. It is, therefore, confounding to see the rude indifference, arrogant dismissal and open derision with which Israel has responded to the proposed U.S. outline for a reconfigured Middle East. The plan may be incomplete or imperfect at this point, but it is there for the taking.

Trump talked a lot about bring manufacturing back to America. But under Biden, manufacturing investment has grown faster than any time in recent history. And it's not even close. During Trump's presidency, manufacturing spending grew by 5%. Under Biden it has grown by 279%. pic.twitter.com/qHSKmZcLCp

— Michael Thomas (@curious_founder) February 29, 2024

Cliff Schecter on reproductive freedom:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: IVF, courts, and fundraising

Lourdes A. Rivera/HuffPost:

What the Alabama Supreme Court’s Decision Says About Our Failing Democracy

The high court ruling that the “wrongful death of a minor” law could be applied to an embryo created through in vitro fertilization is another extremist strategy in the criminalization of pregnant people.  
For those of us following the Alabama Supreme Court closely, this is, while deeply disturbing, not surprising. Ten years ago, this court ruled that the definition of a “child” included fetuses at any point in gestation in the context of child abuse laws, meaning a pregnant person could abuse their “child” even as an embryo, ushering in the unprecedented mass criminalization of pregnant people in the state: more than 600 such cases from 2006 through 2022, outpacing every state in the nation in criminalizing pregnant people.

Lots to say about the Michigan primary, but the pundits aren’t done rewriting their preferred narrative. Check in tomorrow, but meanwhile:

Michigan voter on Trump: I think he is pretty much an asshole pic.twitter.com/Ub6lsbbtzO

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 28, 2024

Marilou Johanek/Ohio Capital Journal:

National and Ohio Republicans desperately pretending they haven’t been attacking IVF

All Ohio Republican U.S. Senate candidates opposed November amendment passed by 57% of Ohio voters that guaranteed rights to fertility treatment

Don’t believe a word. The same extremists lining up to support a federal abortion ban, that would override hard-earned reproductive freedoms in states like Ohio, are now tripping all over themselves to profess their support for IVF and personal choice. Yeah right. The truth is freedom-killing MAGA Republicans were caught off guard after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos (created and stored for in vitro fertilization) are children under state law.

Public reaction to the decision — that repeatedly invoked scripture as its legal foundation for effectively stopping in vitro fertilization treatments across Alabama — was highly negative. Of course it was. Millions of Americans struggle with infertility issues. Many have turned to IVF for hope. So the patriarchal zealots on a mission from God to force their religious beliefs down our throats — to control what you read, say, do, who you marry, when and how you have kids — saw the polls on IVF and rushed to pretend they would absolutely protect access to it.

Don’t believe a word. The extreme agenda of Christian nationalists to inject government into our private lives and subjugate women as vessels of the state was bluntly exposed in the Alabama IVF case. 

Watch him get 80 percent in the Michigan primary, and have the same journalists call it a setback, reflecting deep divisions among Democrats. https://t.co/HFNKnx6ISW

— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) February 26, 2024

Brian Beutler/”Off Message” on Substack:

IVF And The Faithlessness Of The GOP

Republicans desperately trying to cover their tracks are running the same play as the Supreme Court justices who lied about settled law to get confirmed so they could overturn Roe v. Wade.

In reality, Republicans do not care about truth in advertising, per se.

To the contrary, they have embraced near-total faithlessness. Long gone are the days when they ran and lost on a plan to privatize Medicare—now they promise not to touch entitlements on the campaign trail, hoping to win enough power to simply break the promise. When their policies are unpopular or disruptive, they don’t even bother with Obama-style salesmanship, where policy and rhetoric at least point in the same direction. They now simply pursue a range of toxically unpopular policies, while telling voters they do not.

Former Conservative Prime Minister of Australia. https://t.co/VfbWuPFhrP

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) February 27, 2024

Associated Press:

Trump is winning big with his base, but there’s no sign that he’s broadening support

AP VoteCast shows that Trump, the former president, has galvanized the core of the GOP electorate in IowaNew Hampshire and South Carolina. His voters so far are overwhelmingly white, mostly older than 50 and generally without a college degree. This, however, is very different than the electorate he could face in November, when he’d have to appeal to a far more diverse group and possibly win over supporters of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her pull has been limited in the GOP primaries – but her candidacy may foreshadow problems for Trump.

AP VoteCast reveals that a large portion of Trump’s opposition within the Republican primaries is comprised of voters who abandoned him before this year.

Mike Allen/Axios:

Trump's demographic problem

Those who went to the polls reflected Trump's strengths:

  • This was the oldest South Carolina GOP electorate this century. (Chuck Todd)
  • 60% of primary voters were white evangelical or born-again Christians. (CNN)

Reality check: That group isn't remotely big enough to win a presidential election. He would need to attract voters who are more diverse, more educated and believe his first loss was legit. South Carolina exit polls show he didn't do that.

  • That's why Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the Senate's only Black Republican, remains on Trump's short list for V.P.
  • A bigger problem yet: Polls show these skeptics would be even less likely to swing his way if he's convicted of a crime — a real possibility among his four ongoing cases, insiders tell us.

NEW: Nancy Mace is circulating a non-binding resolution to express support for IVF & condemn judicial rulings or legislation that restrict access to fertility treatments, per draft sent to me & @FoxReports. But it’s symbolic — doesn’t actually enshrine IVF protections into law.

— Melanie Zanona (@MZanona) February 27, 2024

Marc Caputo/The Bulwark:

‘The numbers right now aren’t good.’

Why Trump is fundraising more than ever.

Trump’s legal issues have impacted his money picture in multiple ways: (1) They made some big donors nervous about giving to him, depriving him of money he otherwise would have had sooner. (2) They led some big donors to give to Haley instead, thereby prolonging her campaign. (3) They armed Trump critics with the argument that he wants the RNC to pay his legal bills. (4) The big financial judgments against him have made cash more scarce for Trump—which in turn make it harder to fill gaps by self-funding (which Trump has always been loath to do and hasn’t done this cycle).

“He’s much more engaged than I’ve ever seen him at this, and that’s because he has to be,” said one Republican familiar with the campaign’s finances. “The numbers right now aren’t good, but we should raise a billion dollars or $900 million at this pace now. We’ll have enough.”

Molly Jong-Fast/Vanity Fair:

Mike Johnson Is in Way Over His Head

Who’d have guessed a Trumpy backbencher would bungle the Speaker’s job?
Well, now you’ll even find Republicans pointing out that Johnson wasn’t the first draft pick. “We went through five choices and Mike Johnson’s the fifth choice,” Representative Patrick McHenry told CBS News last week. McHenry, who served as Speaker pro tempore last year after Kevin McCarthy, his ally, was ousted, may feel like he can finally speak freely since he’s not running for reelection. He’s part of a wave of House GOP retirements that includes Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Mike Gallagher, and Ken Buck. (Notably, Gallagher and Buck both voted against the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.) In the CBS interview, McHenry continued to muse about Johnson: “He has not been around these leadership decisions. He’s had a really tough process. We’ve thrown him into the deepest end of the pool with the heaviest weights around him and [we’re] trying to teach him how to learn to swim. It’s been a rough couple of months.” Sounds like McHenry has a little Speaker’s remorse! Or, as Punchbowl put it bluntly on Monday: “Johnson, quite frankly, has been hesitant to lead on any issue at all.”

This is the moment when the effort to boot Fani Willis off the Trump RICO case died. pic.twitter.com/f2TYDc6BDN

— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) February 27, 2024

That's a wrap from Fulton County Superior Court on Terrance Bradley's testimony. That bombshell turned out to be a big 'ole dud. pic.twitter.com/RoV3ddnlhz

— Anthony Michael Kreis (@AnthonyMKreis) February 27, 2024

Cliff Schecter looks at Kevin McCarthy and Matt Gaetz:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Good people in Alabama suffer more than anyone over what Republicans do

Glamour:

‘These Embryos Are Five Years Worth of Money, Sadness, and Hope. I Just Want to Be a Mom.’

The Alabama Supreme Court ruled last week that frozen embryos are legally considered children, which effectively banned IVF treatment in the state. Here’s how the decision impacts one couple.
Crain, a journalist and artist who lives in Birmingham, has spent the past several years reporting on the loss of women’s rights to their own bodies in Alabama while dealing with the mental and physical toll of her own private fertility journey. She and her husband had been preparing to transfer their frozen embryos from their latest egg retrieval when she heard the news about the Supreme Court’s decision.

“It's insane,” she says. “While I don't view my embryos as scared children sitting in the freezer calling for their mommy, I do feel that they are mine and no one else's. And right now I can't, can't touch them physically, mentally, spiritually, if I wanted to. I legally can't.”

Republicans freaking out on IVF issue as Dems step up messaginghttps://t.co/NYtBtu9kYP

— Tim McBride (@mcbridetd) February 25, 2024

Eric Garcia/Independent:

CPAC celebrates the Alabama IVF ruling – while Trump and Republicans distance themselves

Republican candidates and the GOP’s presumptive presidential candidate have come out opposing restrictions to IVF. But some conservatives at CPAC celebrated the Alabama ruling

Republicans have begun to sense that the ruling is unpopular. Last year, the Pew Research Center found that 42 per cent of Americans have either used fertility treatments or knew someone who has, particularly as women continue to have children older. On Friday, Mr Tuberville posted on X/Twitter that he had spoken with Alabama’s speaker of the house, saying that the legislature will take up a bill to protect IVF.

“We want everyone to have the opportunity to have kids,” he said. “IVF will remain legal and available in Alabama.”

Similarly, National Review reported that the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent a memo to Republican candidates for Senate instructing them to “clearly state your support for IVF and fertility-related services as blessings for those seeking to have children.”

Two of the candidates for Senate in swing states who appeared at CPAC – David McCormick in Pennsylvania and Kari Lake in Arizona – both put out statements saying they opposed restrictions to IVF.

Republican leaders have instructed their politicians to publicly support IVF even if they have previously sponsored legislation that would ban IVF. The GOP is held together by its willingness to lie in unison.

— Mark Jacob (@MarkJacob16) February 24, 2024

John Archibald/Al.com:

Alabama Supreme Court is a theocracy

Alabama Supreme Court chief justice Tom Parker was downright gleeful.

He quoted Genesis in his sermon — I’m sorry, his concurring opinion — in the Alabama ruling that turned in vitro fertilization on its head by defining frozen embryos as children.

He quoted 17th century Dutch theologian Petrus Van Mastricht. Ya know, good ole Van Mastricht. He quoted a 16th century Bible – because older is closer to God, maybe – and quoted the Sixth Commandment, thou shalt not kill.

He quoted Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin and one of Roy Moore’s old pals at the Foundation for Moral Law in Montgomery. He wrote of the “wrath of God.”

The people of Alabama, he said, decided all this was public policy.

“It is as if the People of Alabama took what was spoken of the prophet Jeremiah and applied it to every unborn person in this state: ‘Before I formed you in the womb I knew you, Before you were born I sanctified you.’”

Did I say it wasn’t a sermon? It was definitely a sermon.

This interview of a hard-core Trump voter in South Carolina by @Boris_Sanchez @cnn is absolutely fascinating 👉 https://t.co/KoTfxyIlKG Despite his loyalty to Trump, he validates my point @nytopinion about the devastating effect of a conviction 👇https://t.co/htqQX9wOsA

— Norm Eisen (norm.eisen on Threads) (@NormEisen) February 25, 2024

Context for the above CNN video (the indictment remarks are at 00:41, listen to his reaction about conviction):

Among Haley supporters via @CNN exit polls: If Trump wins nomination: 21% satisfied 78% dissatisfied If Trump is convicted: 15% still fit for presidency 82% unfit for presidency

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 25, 2024

There’s too much out there on Biden’s weaknesses, not enough on Trump’s. So, here’s two more on Trump, starting with Dan Pfeiffer/”Message Box” on Substack:

Yet Another Underwhelming Trump Primary Win

Trump is on the glide path to the nomination, but he isn't improving his performance with swing voters

However, the real story is that Trump underperformed expectations and failed to expand his coalition. Once again, despite another dominant primary victory, the results highlighted Trump's vulnerabilities and offered a roadmap for defeating him in November.

Based on the exit polls, Trump’s campaign team should be popping some Xanax with the champagne over his win in South Carolina.

You cannot win the White House with the coalition that Trump is getting in these primaries. He must expand his coalition, persuade people who aren’t already on board, and get beyond the Big Lie-believing MAGA base. Through three primary contests, Trump has gained no ground.

Republican primary voters who vote for a candidate other than Trump are significantly less likely to return to him in the general. This is where resources should be spent. Everything else is a distraction. GOP defections will be the single largest factor in the November outcome

— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) February 25, 2024

Many here don’t believe it and don’t trust GOP voters. But they often have more sense than their candidates, at least if they aren’t white evangelical voters in South Carolina:

CNN exit polls in South Carolina primary: White evangelical Christians: 75% Trump 24% Haley Everyone else: 51% Haley 49% Trump

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 25, 2024

Walter Shapiro/The New Republic:

How Nikki Haley Can Beat Trump

She won’t win the Republican nomination, but by staying in the race she’s lowering Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.

In a Tuesday speech giving her full-throated justification for staying in the race beyond her home state’s primary, Haley said, “Like most Americans, I have a handful of serious concerns about the former president. But I have countless serious concerns about the current president.” That line alone virtually guarantees that Haley will not magically appear as a surprise guest at the August Democratic convention.

Although the plucky Haley portrays herself as a loyal Republican, her limited—but scorching—attacks on Trump are worth examining in detail. She is appealing to a dwindling band of Reagan Republicans, suburban moderates and up-for-grabs independents. There are probably not enough of these voters to hand Haley a primary victory, but these are constituencies that the Joe Biden campaign will also target in November. Haley, in effect, is offering a crash course in how to woo swing voters who do not automatically assume that Trump is a racist and fascist out to trample the Constitution.  

Biden is building an anti-Trump coalition, not a pro-Biden one. every message that keeps folks in that coalition is a good one, every entity that peels off voters (third party) is a bad one (see Sarah Longwell above).

David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:

A Vote for Trump Is a Vote for Putin—and a World in Danger

Global peace, Europe’s future, and our security are on the ballot in November. The final word on Ukraine’s future, NATO’s future, and Putin’s future will come from American voters.

It is time to remove from our analytical lexicon the terms that are commonly used to minimize the dangers associated with the Trump-MAGA-Putin alliance. After more than eight years of compiling evidence that demonstrates Russia’s efforts to co-opt the American right is perhaps the most successful intelligence operation of our time, we have to reject the transparent vocabulary of keyboard warriors that still cry “hoax” every time new and irrefutable evidence of GOP-Russia ties is presented.

In the past two weeks alone, there has been the evidence that the core of the GOP sham impeachment effort against President Biden turned on the testimony of a man with ties to Russian intelligence; Trump’s invitation to Putin to do “whatever the hell he wants” with Europe; the MAGA right’s decision to postpone further even considering aid to UkraineTucker Carlson’s jaunt to Moscow to amplify the Kremlin’s lies about itself; the refusal of Trump to condemn the murder of Alexei Navalny in Russian prison; and the arrest of yet another American for no good reason in Russia.

Republicans pretending they want to protect IVF but getting owned by their own voting records. pic.twitter.com/TikXNgtixb

— Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) February 24, 2024

Thomas Zimmer/”Democracy Americana” on Substack:

“Project 2025” Promises Revenge, Oppression, and Autocratic Rule

The Right’s plans for a return to power are driven by a radicalizing siege mentality and a desperate desire to restore dominance

One of the more frustrating aspects of studying and talking about American politics is that if you simply trace the radicalization of the Right and the Republican Party, there is a good chance a mainstream audience will dismiss you as a leftwing conspiracy theorist or an unhinged “activist.” Donald Trump’s outrageousness notwithstanding, it is difficult to convey to people who don’t pay much attention to politics how much the power centers of conservative politics have been taken over by anti-democratic extremism. One way to deal with this problem is to get people to actually read and listen to what emanates from the Right. If you don’t believe and can’t trust my (lefty / liberal) assessment, maybe you can believe them? In that spirit, I think it’s worth spending time diving deep into Kevin Roberts’ “Promise to America” – with lots of extensive quotes, as it is important to get a sense of what these people sound like when they are not being sanitized and normalized by mainstream media coverage. This will serve as Part I of my dissection of “Project 2025,” focusing on the worldview and ideas that are guiding the plans on the Right; there will also be a Part II in which I will look more closely at what those plans entail, and the strategies for how to realize them and turn America into the kind of society the reactionary Right desires.

ProPublica:

New Details Suggest Senior Trump Aides Knew Jan. 6 Rally Could Get Chaotic

Text messages and interviews show that Stop the Steal leaders fooled the Capitol police and welcomed racists to increase their crowd sizes, while White House officials worked to both contain and appease them.

On Dec. 19, President Donald Trump blasted out a tweet to his 88 million followers, inviting supporters to Washington for a “wild” protest.

Earlier that week, one of his senior advisers had released a 36-page report alleging significant evidence of election fraud that could reverse Joe Biden’s victory. “A great report,” Trump wrote. “Statistically impossible to have lost the 2020 Election. Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!”

The tweet worked like a starter’s pistol, with two pro-Trump factions competing to take control of the “big protest.”

Sheesh. This “analysis” lacks context that SC has an open primary. It is clear that a sizable number of Dems showed up just to cast an early anti-Trump vote. It says nothing about the GOP base. Need to wait until we get to closed primaries before drawing a conclusion like this. https://t.co/qw45nNbZBd

— Patrick Murray (@PollsterPatrick) February 25, 2024

From Cliff Schecter on John Oliver’s Clarence Thomas offer:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: How the ‘need for chaos’ keeps Trump in the running

Brian Beutler/”Off Message” on Substack:

Will Democrats Really Shrug Off The GOP's Latest, Biggest Betrayal?

Republicans teamed up with Russian intelligence to smear Joe Biden; they inflicted serious political damage on him over YEARS; Democrats can't let bygones be bygones

To recap quickly: Last week, David Weiss, the Trump-appointed prosecutor who has investigated, charged, and jerked around Hunter Biden, indicted Alexander Smirnov, the one witness who claimed to have evidence that the younger Biden really was trotting the globe soliciting bribes on behalf of his father. Turns out, Smirnov made it all up!

That development, taken in isolation and at face value, was a huge, embarrassing blow to Weiss and to congressional Republicans, who have plastered Smirnov’s allegations all over the media and used them to justify a decision they’d already made, at Donald Trump’s behest, to impeach Joe Biden.

But that wasn’t the end of it. DOJ then took the surprising step of trying to keep Smirnov confined before trial, and when a judge got in the way, prosecutors revealed that Smirnov’s lies stemmed from his work as a Russian intelligence agent. It’s not just that Republicans (in DOJ and on Capitol Hill) tried to frame Biden based on lies. It’s that the lies were part of a familiar Russian operation, encouraged and abetted by Trump himself for nearly a decade now, to slime his opponents ahead of elections.

Today it’s the 2024 election, but Smirnov first seeded his lies ahead of the 2020 election, when DOJ was controlled by Trump, and his corrupt attorney general Bill Barr.

Somehow Smirnov’s Russian intelligence contacts eluded all of these Republicans for four years. Unless of course they didn’t.

Smirnov, via a California judge, is back in custody. This, after a Nevada judge temporarily freed him.

A bit of advice:

Please do not report that the Republicans support IVF without noting their actual records, or asking them if that means they do not think embryos are people.

— Christina Reynolds (@creynoldsnc) February 23, 2024

Like clockwork, leading GOP candidates in #AZSEN, #OHSEN, #PASEN, and #MTSEN all sticking to the NRSC’s message and releasing statements supporting IVF treatments pic.twitter.com/Z1jqTs9x8F

— Kirk A. Bado (@kirk_bado) February 23, 2024

Running for election makes you do interesting things. But once you win …?

Dan Froomkin/Press Watch:

The Hunter Biden story has done a total 180 but the MSM is in denial

The real story is that the ludicrous Republican impeachment investigation has now been exposed as a Russian intelligence op. This, even as Republicans do Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bidding by blocking support for Ukraine and only a few short years after Trump aides welcomed Russian moves to help the Trump campaign in 2016.

But the political reporters at our most esteemed newsrooms who went to great lengths to portray the Biden impeachment investigation as a serious inquiry seem unable to change gears.

I’m not surprised. It  would require them to admit they were wrong. They don’t do that.

FSB is the proud successor to the KGB, which ran similar operations in West Germany in the Cold War. https://t.co/2tRPy35nUO

— Cas Mudde (@CasMudde) February 23, 2024

POLITICO:

Biden impeachment effort on the brink of collapse

A wide swath of House Republicans are acknowledging they likely won’t have the votes, especially given their struggle to recommend booting Alejandro Mayorkas.

The House GOP’s push to impeach Joe Biden appears close to stalling out for good.

First, the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas scraped through on the narrowest of margins — and took two tries, raising serious doubts about Republicans’ appetite for an even bigger impeachment fight. Then, a high-profile informant making bribery allegations against the Biden family was not only indicted, but has now linked some of his information to Russian intelligence.

See also AxiosHouse Republicans see Biden impeachment slipping out of reach

Some musings about what SCOTUS could be up to when it comes to Donald Trump’s presidential immunity claim:

4. Possibility 2 is that the Court has voted to go all the way to the merits—to issue a brief ruling by the full Court that *affirms* the D.C. Circuit's rejection of former President Trump's immunity. Such a disposition would also take a little time to craft/get everyone behind.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 23, 2024

7. In other words, although there are several explanations for why it's taking the Court this long, the most likely ones are all *bad* for Trump. None of this is a guarantee, of course; one of the *problems* with the shadow docket is how much we're left to guess. But that's mine.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 23, 2024

Derek Thompson/The Atlantic:

The Americans Who Need Chaos

They’re embracing nihilism and upending politics.

The researchers came up with a term to describe the motivation behind these all-purpose conspiracy mongers. They called it the “need for chaos,” which they defined as “a mindset to gain status” by destroying the established order. In their study, nearly a third of respondents demonstrated a need for chaos, Petersen said. And for about 5 percent of voters, old-fashioned party allegiances to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party melted away and were replaced by a desire to see the entire political elite destroyed—even without a plan to build something better in the ashes.

“These [need-for-chaos] individuals are not idealists seeking to tear down the established order so that they can build a better society for everyone,” the authors wrote in their conclusion. “Rather, they indiscriminately share hostile political rumors as a way to unleash chaos and mobilize individuals against the established order that fails to accord them the respect that they feel they personally deserve.” To sum up their worldview, Petersen quoted a famous line from the film The Dark Knight: “Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

Alabama IVF ruling puts spotlight on state plans for tax breaks and child support for fetuses https://t.co/K52CV0FwVF

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 24, 2024

Conor Sen/Bloomberg:

Boy, This Economy Is Hard to Read. Mea Culpa.

I’m now sorry that I described recent signs of recovery as akin to a “dead cat bounce” that would eventually be swamped by high interest rates.

The catalyst is the growing confidence among consumers and businesses alike, ironically driven by the slowdown in inflation the Fed has been working to engineer. Monetary policy remains tight — look no further than the struggles in the automobile and commercial property sectors or affordability challenges for homebuyers — but, for now, there are too many industries showing signs of resilience or acceleration to believe that the central bank’s stance will cause the labor market or economy to unravel.

No Labels' spoiler bid has suddenly entered full meltdown mode. No serious candidates are interested. The group's public justifications are increasingly ludicrous. Time to pull the plug. We have lots of new reporting and info in this piece. 1/ Link:https://t.co/huQpANZIlH

— Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) February 23, 2024

Daniel Nichanian/Bolts magazine:

Judges Play Musical Chairs on Arkansas’ Highest Court

Four members of the state supreme court are trying to jump to different seats on the bench, a situation that could empower the conservative governor by granting her more appointments.

The only two candidates not already on the court face tough odds, crushed by their opponents’ name recognition and fundraising. Each told Bolts that they’re concerned about the prospect of the governor shaping the court’s membership when justices are supposed to be chosen by voters.

Many states select justices via elections, but then stretch the spirit of that approach. Justices in other states routinely resign before their term is up, enabling governors to name a replacement; in Minnesota, for instance, all current justices owe their seat to an appointment despite the state’s election system. As Bolts has reported, a loophole in Georgia law has even allowed state justices and other officials to maneuver to outright cancel some judicial elections.

In Arkansas, the reasons for this situation are very different across the two elections. One of the two open supreme court races this year is to replace Chief Justice John Dan Kemp, who is retiring rather than seek a new term. Three of the court’s associate justices—Karen Baker, Barbara Webb, and Rhonda Wood—are running for the open chief justice position, which is akin to seeking a promotion, since the chief justice has broad responsibilities over supervising the state’s judicial system.

Ryan Burge/”Graphs About Religion” on Substack:

Has Christian Nationalism Intensified or Faded?

Comparing Survey Data from 2007 and 2021

It's all happened so fast that it's hard to get our arms around a pretty basic question in the discussion about Christian Nationalism - are those sentiments increasing or decreasing in the general public? Well, now I can answer that with a great deal of specificity.

If one is looking for the empirical foundations of the Christian Nationalism debate, it’s in a series of statements that were posed to respondents in the Baylor Religion Survey back in 2007 - Wave II. They are as follows:

  1. The federal government should advocate Christian values
  2. The federal government should allow prayer in public schools
  3. The federal government should allow the display of religious symbols in public spaces
  4. The federal government should declare the United States a Christian nation
  5. The federal government should enforce strict separation of church and state
  6. The success of the United States is part of God’s plan.

Response options ranged from strongly disagree to strongly agree. The middle option is undecided. I know that there's a lively debate about defining Christian Nationalism and whether these questions are tapping that concept accurately. I am going to sidestep that discussion entirely here. The authors I mentioned above are much more well-versed in those debates than I am. My focus here is narrow - I just want to see how responses to those questions have changed over time….

I think it's fair to say that the results point to the fact that Christian Nationalism is fading in the general population. That's evident in a number of these statements. For instance, in 2007, 55% of folks said that the government should advocate Christian values. In 2021, that share had dropped to just 38%. That's substantial.

My argument would be that extremism makes things less popular with the general public. Same with scandals, same with overreaching.

One presidential candidate makes the killing of Alexey @Navalny about himself, the other goes and meets with the grieving family and promises support for their cause. But yes, they're basically the same. https://t.co/pv37l9GrKO

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) February 22, 2024

Cliff Schecter on Lindsey Graham:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The issues the GOP cannot deal with raise their heads yet again

POLITICO Playbook:

What the GOP would prefer not to discuss

Already, Republicans are being forced to answer for a policy that is not only out of step with public opinion on IVF but has very personal and potentially devastating consequences for the one in six Americans who struggle with fertility issues. The decision not only risks alienating swing voters but highlights how the consequences of Dobbs continue to crush Republicans up and down the ballot....

The issue is already rearing its head on the campaign trail. Yesterday, 2024 hopeful NIKKI HALEY — who’s been open about her own struggles having children, used artificial insemination to conceive and lectured Republican for being too harsh on women who’ve had abortions — told she NBC she agrees with the Alabama ruling: “Embryos, to me, are babies.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are on the attack. DCCC spokesperson NEBEYATT BETRE told Playbook that voters are “tired of Republicans’ dangerous and blatantly anti-woman agenda,” and vowed that House Dem candidates will “make sure to continue holding Republicans accountable for their disastrous impact on women’s rights.”

“This [Alabama] decision is yet another proofpoint that extremists are hellbent on stripping women of our reproductive freedoms and privacy any way possible,” Betre said.

Easily forgotten is that NY 3 had a winning message on Dobbs for Tom Suozzi (D-he's back) in the recent special election. Now throw in IVF, and East Egg will vote D in November.

Huge majorities not only support fertility treatments, huge majorities of just about every demographic believe fertility treatments should be covered by health insurance. It’s opposed by only 18% of _Republicans_!https://t.co/8GMr9o4A5s). pic.twitter.com/QVVA5b6VbK

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) February 22, 2024

POLITICO:

‘Another hot potato’: Alabama’s IVF ruling risks political, legal backlash

Alabama court ruled frozen embryos are people. The GOP could pay for it in November.

The decision not only threatens GOP efforts to court suburban women and other constituencies uneasy about abortion bans, but also complicates the party’s standing with millions of people who may oppose abortion but support — and in many cases use — in-vitro fertilization and other forms of fertility care. The ruling also demonstrates how the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has made previously theoretical policy and legal battles over the most intimate aspects of American life far more immediate and high-stakes.

Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:

Alert: Trump's Vision for a Christian Nationalist U.S. Revealed

A new report shows the danger of sending Trump back to the White House

It is possible you missed the critically important story that appeared in Politico yesterday morning. According to reporting from Alex Ward and Heidi Pryzbla:

An influential think tank close to Donald Trump is developing plans to infuse Christian nationalist ideas in his administration should the former president return to power, according to documents obtained by POLITICO.

Spearheading the effort is Russell Vought, who served as Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget during his first term and has remained close to him. Vought, who is frequently cited as a potential chief of staff in a second Trump White House, is president of The Center for Renewing America think tank, a leading group in a conservative consortium preparing for a second Trump term.

Vought was an influential advisor to Trump during his presidency and is one of few Trump Administration alums who has remained in the former President’s circle of advisors. His involvement is a giant warning sign that the threat is very real.

Few voters have heard Trump’s NATO comments, and even fewer heard about Trump’s fraud verdict, but I would bet none of them have read a single word of this Politico story. I would also bet my life that the prospect of the Trump Administration implementing extreme Christian Nationalist policies would be more concerning to swing voters than the NATO comments or the fraud.

NEW: We found the guys behind the deepfake Biden robocall and it’s even wilder than you could ever possibly imagine. https://t.co/D6JEbB42za

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) February 23, 2024

Matthew D Taylor/X via Threadreader:

The sharp-eyed folks at @mmfa noticed that Alabama Supr. Court Chief Justice Tom Parker gave an interview to NAR prophet Johnny Enlow, published the same day as the court's recent decision that embryos count as ppl. Parker references the "Seven Mountains." This is very important.

During a recent interview with a QAnon conspiracy theorist, the Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice indicated that he is a proponent of the “Seven Mountain Mandate,” which calls on Christians to impose fundamentalist values on all aspects of American life https://t.co/fvIaVqET0l

— Media Matters (@mmfa) February 21, 2024

As I showed in Charismatic Revival Fury, ep. 3, the Seven Mountain Mandate is a charismatic (e.g., rooted in modern prophecy & miracles) program intent upon achieving Christian supremacy. It originated in 2000 with NAR prophet/apostle Lance Wallnau.

While Wallnau came up with the concept, the entire New Apostolic Reformation infrastructure (created by C. Peter Wagner) of tight-knit apostles & prophets amplified the Seven Mountains idea & spread it around the nondenominational charismatic world starting around 2007-2008. 3/ 
Johnny Enlow's book The Seven Mountains Prophecy (2008) was the 1st book that explicitly used the Seven Mountains frame.

24 hours later, it’s pretty shocking how much of the mainstream coverage is focused on the implications for impeachment or the details of spycraft. Seems like the real story is apparent Russian disinfo successfully driving the strategy of one of the two main political parties. https://t.co/Ekyw07hBUD

— Todd Zwillich (@toddzwillich) February 22, 2024

POLITICO:

In South Carolina, Haley is running hard on Russia

The former U.N. ambassador is seizing on Alexei Navalny’s death as a persistent line of attack on Donald Trump.

“Trump is siding with a dictator who kills his political opponents,” Haley said. “Trump sided with an evil man over our allies who stood with us on 9/11. Think about what that told them.”

Haley is turning Russia — and Putin, specifically — into a cudgel at a crucial moment in the Republican presidential primary. She’s running far behind Trump. And the former South Carolina governor is poised to get blown out in her home state’s primary on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Oliver Darcy describes the Hunter Biden/Burisma story as "imploding in spectacular fashion". It’s a national security issue. It’s a campaign issue. Republicans don’t want to talk about it. But it’s not going away. 

Oh, and guess what? It’s not a hoax.

WOW. GOP Rep. Ken Buck reveals that Comer and Jim Jordan were warned that the former FBI informant's claims against Biden were not credible but they “went out and talk to the public about how this was credible and how it was damning…”pic.twitter.com/Ujz2glOemd

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) February 22, 2024

jerusalem Demsas/The Atlantic:

Something’s Fishy About the ‘Migrant Crisis’

The federal government’s dysfunction leaves immigrant-friendly cities feeling overwhelmed.

What ensured the quiet assimilation of displaced Ukrainians? Why has the arrival of asylum seekers from Latin America been so different? And why have some cities managed to weather the so-called crisis without any outcry or political backlash? In interviews with mayors, other municipal officials, nonprofit leaders, and immigration lawyers in several states, I pieced together an answer stemming from two major differences in federal policy. First, the Biden administration admitted the Ukrainians under terms that allowed them to work right away. Second, the feds had a plan for where to place these newcomers. It included coordination with local governments, individual sponsors, and civil-society groups. The Biden administration did not leave Ukrainian newcomers vulnerable to the whims of Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who since April 2022 has transported 37,800 migrants to New York City, 31,400 to Chicago, and thousands more to other blue cities—in a successful bid to push the immigration debate rightward and advance the idea that immigrants are a burden on native-born people.

#New #Arizona Senate Poll 🔵 Gallego 36% (+6) 🔴 Lake 30% 🟡 Sinema 21% 🔵 Gallego 46% (+7) 🔴 Lake 39% Emerson #8 - 2/19 - 1,000 RV pic.twitter.com/GelrCrUnCL

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) February 22, 2024

I'm sure Meghan McCain has thoughts.

NO PEACE, BITCH! https://t.co/ekl9QjCF5v

— Meghan McCain (@MeghanMcCain) February 21, 2024

Oh. Well, have a nice day, everyone.

Marcy Wheeler/emptywheel:

DAVID WEISS WAS PLANNING ON USING ALEXANDER SMIRNOV’S CLAIMS AGAINST THE BIDENS UNTIL HE WASN’T ANYMORE

The reason why David Weiss reneged on a plea deal was to chase this bribery claim. The reason why David Weiss charged Hunter Biden with a bunch of felonies rather than resolving this in a diversion and misdemeanors was because he wanted to chase the false claims floated by someone dallying with Russian spies.

And I’d be willing to bet that if Lowell hadn’t asked for discovery that may expose that fact, David Weiss would never have indicted Alexander Smirnov.

Lawrence O’Donnell with a master class on how to pronounce Roosevelt (and says a few other things brilliantly as well):