The Abbreviated Pundit Round-up is a daily feature at Daily Kos.
Let’s put angst aside for a day, and look at the case for Bernie Sanders. [This isn’t to tell you who to vote for, it’s for perspective. Bernie has not won the nomination yet, vote your choice.] It starts with Bernie getting the most votes. It also includes how often the pundits are wrong, and it goes from there. It will be twitter heavy, because written pundits aren’t doing enough of it. Let’s have at it, starting with a conservative:
During the 2016 election campaign, when Dems prayed for Trump to win the nom, @EsotericCD said something to the effect of: ANY major party nominee is one unpredictable event away from being president. Do not tempt fate. I see too many conservatives doing the same with Bernie.— Seth Mandel (@SethAMandel) February 23, 2020
There are the polls, which say we are winning:
the same new UW/YouGov WI poll has very close Nov match-ups, with Trump trailing slightly vs Dems. Very diff from Quinn. poll. (UW sample in WI was +5 Dem, Q sample was +6 Rep). https://t.co/rOsl4jdNd9 pic.twitter.com/1waLffk3in— Craig Gilbert (@WisVoter) February 23, 2020
for those writing off the Dems, not so fast pic.twitter.com/kjtquYOemw— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) February 23, 2020
Here’s why the pundits are so often wrong:
and we try to make logical arguments and cogent analysis to an utterly irrational electorate. ...— Jennifer Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) February 23, 2020
🧐🤔. If that’s not humbling to a prognosticator, l I don’t know what is. Or, if not humbling enough, you could look at your own record (I figured Clinton to win a close race and was right about the popular vote but didn’t figure on Jim — to hell with you forever, bub — Comey.)
@dandrezner @morningmoneyben I have a pretty strong view that Sanders wonÃ¢Â�Â�t win. ItÃ¢Â�Â�s true I had a strong view that Trump wouldnÃ¢Â�Â�t win. ItÃ¢Â�Â�s foolish to think that because an upset happened in 2016 all future contests will be won by the underdog.— Tony Fratto (@TonyFratto) February 23, 2020
However, I hope it illustrates that you should be *highly* skeptical of people in the media making blanket statements about Sanders' electability, based on "who they know." E.G., "my friends all say X" or whatever (2/n)— Christopher Ingraham (@_cingraham) February 23, 2020
My motto for this election is nobody knows nothing™.
Making the S.C. primaryÃ¢Â�Â�s results a big test of how powerful the Clyburn machine currently is. https://t.co/9GMdD5OXjA— Holly Otterbein (@hollyotterbein) February 23, 2020
Kristina Karisch/ Washington Monthly:
Could Overseas Voters Be the Democrats’ Secret Weapon in 2020?
In a close election, they can tip the scales in swing states.
Democrats Abroad is the party’s official arm abroad. Every four years, it holds a “global primary” and sends delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Significantly, the group is virtually the only voter turnout drive focused on targeting liberal Americans living outside the United States. Its goal in 2020: to get a million overseas voters to cast a ballot.
That’s not an idea that comes from nowhere. Overseas voters have helped decide an election before. In 2000, both George W. Bush’s and Al Gore’s campaigns hinged their victories on a small number of absentee ballots in Florida that were mailed from outside the U.S.
As the New York Times reported in 2001, when Bush’s unofficial lead was around 300 votes at the start of the 18-day recount, the two camps relied heavily on overseas absentee ballots. Bush’s campaign tried to validate the highest number of ballots possible in counties he had already won while seeking to disqualify overseas ballots in counties Gore was leading in.
It seems to have worked. The Times found that when faced with intense pressure from the GOP, Florida officials “accepted hundreds of overseas absentee ballots that failed to comply with state laws.” The analysis of 2,490 votes found that Florida accepted 680 questionable votes—either from ballots without postmarks or postmarked after Election Day; ballots mailed from U.S. cities and states; or even ballots from voters who voted twice. Bush ultimately won the Florida contest by 537 votes.
By “most votes,” I mean we now have Nevada to include, and it expands the data:
Hispanic voters under 45 years old in Nevada caucuses: Sanders 69% (?!) Biden 8% Buttigieg 7% Warren 7% Steyer 5% Gabbard 1% Klobuchar 1%— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 23, 2020
With help from Latino voters, Bernie Sanders hits the Nevada jackpot
Sanders also ran competitively in the state among unaccustomed support groups.
Latinos joined the Sanders brigade in Nevada, the most diverse state to participate so far, giving him 51% of their votes, a vast tally in a seven-candidate race. Sanders fell off sharply among blacks, to 27% -- yet that was good enough for second place to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 39% among blacks, Biden’s single best group. The Vermont senator won 29% of whites, easily first in this group.
Sanders won half of independent caucusgoers in the Silver State on Saturday, a core support group in his 2016 race against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Yet he won Nevada Democrats as well, with 31% support. While seven in 10 mainline Democrats voted for someone else, no other individual candidate won more than 20% of their votes, well under Sanders’ tally among party regulars.
NEW: Bernie Sanders win Nevada should reshape the narrative about his supporters, and is a wake up call to rivals who have ignored warning signs If the Bernie Bros are real, so are the working class Latino moms who put him over the top W/ @jennymedinahttps://t.co/O1au7S21MF— SteadmanÃ¢Â�Â¢ (@AsteadWesley) February 23, 2020
How Bernie Sanders Dominated in Nevada
A multiracial coalition brought the senator’s long-promised political revolution to vivid life, for perhaps the first time in the 2020 race.
They showed up to Desert Pines High School in Tío Bernie T-shirts to caucus on Saturday morning, motivated by the idea of free college tuition, “Medicare for all” and the man making those promises: a 78-year-old white senator from Vermont. To dozens of mostly working-class Latinos, Bernie Sanders seemed like one of their own, a child of immigrants who understands what it means to be seen as a perpetual outsider.
For at least one day, in one state, the long-promised political revolution of Mr. Sanders came to vivid life, a multiracial coalition of immigrants, college students, Latina mothers, younger black voters, white liberals and even some moderates who embraced his idea of radical change and lifted him to victory in the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.
By harnessing such a broad cross-section of voters, Mr. Sanders offered a preview of the path that he hopes to take to the Democratic presidential nomination: uniting an array of voting blocs in racially diverse states in the West and the South and in economically strapped parts of the Midwest and the Southwest, all behind the message of social and economic justice that he has preached for years.
The center-left establishment will come on board:
Republicans have all kinds of incredibly unpopular positions - tax cuts for the rich, cutting off insurance - but they all agree that conservatism is awesome and everyone should embrace it. Imagine if Democrats acted the same way about liberalism. /2— Paul Waldman (@paulwaldman1) February 24, 2020
To be honest, a Sanders administration would probably leave center-left policy wonks like me out in the cold, at least initially. But this is no time for self-indulgence and ego trips. Freedom is on the line 5/— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) February 23, 2020
But this is no time for self-indulgence and ego trips. Freedom is on the line. Good one. If you are considering Mike Bloomberg at all, how could you in the end not vote for Bernie in the general? Unity is a two way street, and the moderates are there for the asking:
Assuming he pulls it off, I have only one ask of Bernie supporters: I know you'll show up to vote for HIM. All I ask is that you ALSO show up and vote for EVERY OTHER DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE UP & DOWN THE TICKET whether you consider them to be "progressive enough" or not.— Charles Gaba (@charles_gaba) February 23, 2020
Remember who we are running against:
‘Something has to be done’: Trump’s quest to rewrite history of the Russia probe
Seven months after Mueller’s marathon testimony brought finality to the Russia investigation, Trump is actively seeking to rewrite the narrative that had been meticulously documented by federal law enforcement and intelligence officials, both for immediate political gain and for history.
Turbocharged by his acquittal in the Senate’s impeachment trial and confident that he has acquired the fealty of nearly every Republican in Congress, Trump is claiming vindication and exoneration not only over his conduct with Ukraine — for which the House voted to impeach him — but also from the other investigations that have dogged his presidency.
There are people who don’t care. Don’t be that person:
Guys, IÃ¢Â�Â�m just going to say this now. 1) I am not representative of many voters but 2) if itÃ¢Â�Â�s a Trump v Bernie contest and CT is within 5 points (unlikely but whatever) I will vote for Trump. TheyÃ¢Â�Â�re both awful. They both love the British NHS which is automatically disqualifying— Liz Mair (@LizMair) February 23, 2020
Stupid. Seriously.— John Weaver (@jwgop) February 23, 2020
(Liz is a Republican political consultant and counts as a pundit. Some of these folks are more Rexits than Never Trumpers.)
And one word of caution from Liz:
Not being a consultant for any Dem campaigns, I canÃ¢Â�Â�t say definitively. But some thoughts: 1) Trump clearly prefers to run against him or Warren. Note that there has been VERY LITTLE oppo dumping on Warren. What little of it there has been has come from, ahem, other places... https://t.co/wt5qJoLVGf— Liz Mair (@LizMair) February 23, 2020
See whole thread so you can prepare for the inevitable.
When I feel myself getting my back up about voting for one candidate or another, I remember the kids at the border. I owe it to them to vote for whoever will free them, and not withhold my vote to spite some twitter a-hole.— Aurora Erratic Ã°Â�Â�Â�Ã¢Â�Â�Ã¯Â¸Â� (@Potterchik) February 23, 2020
New CBS/YouGov poll in South Carolina just out: Biden 28% Sanders 23% Steyer 18% Warren 12% Buttigieg 10% Klobuchar 4% Gabbard 1%— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 23, 2020
Like no one is sitting here quaking in fear that M4A will pass or that people will get free college. Some might not think those proposals are reasonable, but it's not like typical liberal Dems fear them. We just don't want to lose and we want to do as much good as we can.— Mangy Jay (@magi_jay) February 23, 2020
That is all.
These are 3 important data points in the Nevada Caucasus that show voters were energized: - turnout was nearly 16,000 higher than in 2016 - 35% of Nevadans who caucused were non-white according to entrance polls - A majority of Nevadans were 1st time caucus-goers Per @nvdems— Ayman Mohyeldin (@AymanM) February 24, 2020
And in non-Bernie news:
Is the vaccine to thwart the new coronavirus stored in a Houston freezer?
The vaccine, developed by researchers at Baylor College of Medicine and University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston researchers, effectively protected mice against SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, the virus from the same family that spread in the early 2000s. The vaccine never progressed to human testing because manufacturing of it wasn’t completed until 2016, long after SARS had burned out.
“It generated zero interest from pharmaceutical companies,” said Peter Hotez, a Baylor vaccine researcher and infectious disease specialist. “Because the virus was no longer circulating, their response was essentially, ‘thanks, but no thanks.’ ”
Japan has 146 confirmed cases, 7 listed as serious. TheyÃ¢Â�Â�ve only tested around 1,500 people.— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) February 24, 2020
Korean stock are getting slammed this Monday. Worse thing is volumes are extremely heavy. Volumes on the Kospi index are extrapolated to top 1 billion shares by the close for only the sixth time in the last 17 years pic.twitter.com/9pVjZS3Poe— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) February 24, 2020