Report shows blue counties have higher murder rate than red, calls out ‘flawed’ studies promoted by top Dems

FIRST ON FOX: A report from the Heritage Foundation shows that homicide rates have been higher in Democrat-run "blue counties" than they have been in "red counties" since 2002 – contradicting a popular talking point recited by prominent liberals like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and billionaire George Soros.

Newsom has publicly stated that "8 of the top 10 murder states are red" while liberal mega-donor Soros wrote in the Wall Street Journal last year that "violent crime in recent years has generally been increasing more quickly in jurisdictions without reform-minded prosecutors" and "murder rates have been rising fastest in some Republican states led by tough-on-crime politicians."

The problem, according to Heritage Foundation’s Kevin Dayaratna, who authored the report along with former research assistant Alexander Gage, is that studies cited by Democrats to make that argument – including a recent study from Third Way titled "The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem" – use a "flawed" methodology because crime is a local issue and, therefore, crime analysis must be undertaken at the local level.

"It is true that red states have higher homicide rates than blue states, but the problem with this is that crime is a hyper-localized phenomenon," Dayaratna told Fox News Digital. "It doesn't make sense to talk about at the state level. It makes sense to talk about at the local level because that's where the prosecutions occur. The local level crime is handled at the local level by local police, so when you look at this question on a local basis, namely the county level, you'll see that the trend is reversed."

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"If you look at the analysis on a state-by-state level, it's 34% higher in red states and blue states, according to the most recent data we analyzed, but then when you look at it as a county-by-county level, it is 60% higher in blue counties than red counties."

The study says that "drawing conclusions from state-level homicide data in such a manner is flawed, as each state consists of a combination of federal, state, county, and local law enforcement agencies, as well as prosecutors with different approaches to law enforcement often based on highly divergent political beliefs."

"Violations of state law are prosecuted largely at the county or city level and, thus, amalgamating data across such units neglects important variation in these different approaches," the study continues.

"Looking at homicide rates by county, states show skewed distributions with many counties having little or no homicides, and a handful of counties with excessively high homicide rates. Thus, state homicide rates can be heavily influenced by a few counties. When those counties have different politics from the rest of the state, it can flip the conclusion about the association between political identifications and homicides."

Dayaratna also told Fox News Digital that Third Way’s conclusion that homicide rates are higher in red states is flawed because it did not update the changes in red states and blue states, in terms of how they shifted in presidential elections over the past 20 years, when compiling the data.

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"Third Way held ‘red’ states and ‘blue’ states constant in terms of how they voted in the 2020 presidential election. This approach is fundamentally flawed because electoral sentiment changed across the time period used for the study," the report states.

"For example, although President Biden won Arizona in 2020, the previous Democrat who won the state was Bill Clinton in 1996. Similarly, Donald Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020, despite the fact that Barack Obama had won the state in 2008 and 2012."

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Dayaratna said that between 2002 and 2008, there was an 88% higher rate of homicide in blue counties than red counties and between 2014 and 2022 there was a 62% increase.

"It is undoubtable that this blue county murder problem has been persisting for quite some time," Dayaratna told Fox News Digital. "And it is quite disingenuous for the Third Way to just present the data as they did. We analyze it from a variety of perspectives at the Heritage Foundation. And we wanted to make sure we put out the proper story."

Last year, Dayaratna partnered with fellow Heritage scholars Cully Stimson and Zack Smith and released a study showing that of the 30 American cities with the highest murder rates, 27 have Democratic mayors, and at least 14 Soros-backed prosecutors.

A spokesperson for Third Way told Fox News Digital that "data is missing or suppressed for many suburban and rural counties, making a complete county-level analysis impossible. But to test a prevalent narrative, we removed the county containing the largest city from only the red states and we found that even after removing the murders from the biggest cities in red states, red state murder rates were still significantly higher than in blue states, which were given no similar advantage."

In response to not updating the electoral map, the spokesperson said they "chose an approach that categorized states consistently across all 21 years" and that "including electoral changes would only increase red state murder rates."

A spokesperson for Newsom's office told Fox News Digital that Newsom has cited more localized crime studies in the past and pointed to a specific interview where he did so in September. 

Newsom justifies Hunter Biden business deals, says using family to ‘get a little influence’ is ‘hardly unique’

California Gov. Gavin Newsom brushed off allegations of Hunter Biden's corrupt business dealings on Monday, saying it is "hardly unique" for people to use their family members to get ahead.

Newsom made the comment in an interview with CNN that aired Monday. The California governor defended the Biden family on issues ranging from Hunter's businesses to President Biden's age.

"One of the things that Republicans are relentless on, of course, is Hunter Biden," CNN host Dana Bash began. "There is no evidence that Joe Biden benefited from anything that Hunter was doing, but Republicans have shown that Hunter Biden – he tried to leverage his father's name, and that the president allegedly before he was president joined phone calls that Hunter Biden's business associates were on. Do you see anything inappropriate there?"

"I don't know enough about the details of that. I mean I've seen a little of that," Newsom responded. "If that's the new criteria, there are a lot of folks in a lot of industries – not just in politics – where people have family members and relationships and they're trying to parlay and get a little influence and benefit in that respect. That's hardly unique."

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"I don't love that any more than you love it or other people I imagine love that. We want to see a lot less of that, but an impeachment inquiry? Give me a break," he continued.

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"Threatening a government shutdown again after we went through that process with the debt ceiling. This is student government," he added. "This is a joke. Ready, fire, aim. I mean, this is a perversity that the founding fathers never conceived of and imagined. So, if that’s the best they can do, give me a break. That’s about public opinion."

Meanwhile, Hunter's legal team has filed a lawsuit against the IRS, claiming the agency "targeted and sought to embarrass" him by exposing his tax returns to the public.

Hunter's legal opponents claim the tactic is merely an attempt to shift attention away from his own legal troubles, which involve a felony gun charge.

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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has also launched an impeachment inquiry into the president relating to his alleged involvement in his son's business deals. Republicans point to statements Hunter has made, phone calls, and dinners Biden attended as evidence that he was aware of what his son was doing.

Biden has brushed off the impeachment inquiry, however, suggesting it was a tactic by Republicans aimed at making a government shutdown more likely.

Newsom invokes death of Emmett Till after Marjorie Taylor Greene said she felt threatened by ‘Squad’ Democrat

California Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom used the 1955 death of Black teenager Emmett Till to cast aspersions on Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., after she said she felt "threatened" by the behavior of Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y.

"This is the kind of dangerous rhetoric that led to Emmett Till's death," Newsom wrote in a Thursday tweet, using language similar to that from Bowman. "Everyone should call this out for what it is: blatant racism."

Greene detailed Bowman's actions and behavior during a Thursday press conference at the Capitol, where she introduced articles of impeachment against President Biden.

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The two House members clashed following a Wednesday vote to send a resolution to expel embattled Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., to the House Ethics Committee rather than directly take up the measure. As Santos spoke with reporters about the vote, Bowman and fellow "Squad" member Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., heckled him to resign.

According to footage of the spat, Bowman and Greene began shouting over each other, with him calling on her to vote to expel Santos, who is facing numerous federal charges and an ethics investigation. Greene told Bowman to "impeach Biden" and "save the country."

Greene told reporters Thursday at the press conference that she had been "swarmed" by a "mob" led by Bowman, which she said had also been captured on video, and that he had called her a "White supremacist."

"He was the one that approached me — even CNN reported that — yelling, shouting, raising his voice. He has aggressive — his physical mannerisms are aggressive," Greene said, while also referring to a previous altercation Bowman had with Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., in March over gun violence, in which Bowman, appearing angry, continuously shouted over Massie as he tried to talk with him.

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"I think there's a lot of concern about Jamaal Bowman, and I am concerned about it. I feel threatened by him," she said. "I am very concerned about Jamaal Bowman, and he's someone people should watch."

Responding to Greene, Bowman, a member of the far-left "Squad," insisted that the Georgia representative wants Black people "targeted for harm" and accused her of putting a target on his back.

"This is why it is so important that we teach and know our history. There is a long tradition—that Marjorie should be well aware of—of Black men who are passionate, outspoken, or who stand their ground, being characterized as ‘threatening’ or ‘intimidating.’ That’s what happened with Emmett Till, with Mike Brown, and with so many more," Bowman told reporters outside the Capitol on Thursday.

"Marjorie’s attack is beyond a dog-whistle. It’s a bullhorn. And it’s reckless and dangerous. She has put a target on my back," he continued. "The truth of the matter is that we had a light back-and-forth on the steps of Capitol Hill, surrounded by reporters and staff. We can roll back the tapes and see her characterization of our conversation is an utter and blatant lie."

"This is, historically, what white supremacists do. They try to dehumanize Black people, Black skin, and Black humanity—so that we can be targeted for harm," he added.

Fox News' Brandon Gillespie contributed to this article.