Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A Good Week for America—and Joe Biden

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Jennifer Rubin/Washington Post:

A rotten week for MAGA Republicans’ feeble stunts

In dismissing the articles of impeachment with a party-line vote, Senate Democrats ignored crocodile tears from the likes of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — who voted against the most meritorious impeachment in history following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot — that dismissing an impeachment before trial would create a bad precedent (unlike letting an insurrectionist off the hook?). Schumer deserves credit for nipping in the bud the GOP-controlled House’s abuse of power.

When Republicans blatantly liedisregard their oaths and — to borrow a phrase — weaponize government, Democrats have an obligation to call them out. That entails refusing to take Republican antics seriously. When hearings and investigations obviously lack good faith, the Democrats can uphold the stature of Congress by simply walking away and refusing to play these games.

👀 More Gonzales: "Look, Matt Gaetz, he paid minors to have sex with him at drug parties,  Bob Good endorsed my opponent, a known neo-Nazi. These people used to walk around with white hoods at night, now they are walking around with white hoods in the daytime”

— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) April 21, 2024

David Frum/The Atlantic:

Trump Deflates

It wasn’t just Putin who lost in the House vote on Ukraine aid.

Ukraine won. Trump lost.

The House vote to aid Ukraine renews hope that Ukraine can still win its war. It also showed how and why Donald Trump should lose the 2024 election.

For nine years, Trump has dominated the Republican Party. Senators might have loathed him, governors might have despised him, donors might have ridiculed him, college-educated Republican voters might have turned against him—but LOL, nothing mattered. Enough of the Republican base supported him. Everybody else either fell in line, retired from politics, or quit the party…

At the beginning of this year, Trump was able even to blow up the toughest immigration bill seen in decades—simply to deny President Joe Biden a bipartisan win. Individual Senate Republicans might grumble, but with Trump opposed, the border-security deal disintegrated.

Three months later, Trump’s party in Congress has rebelled against him—and not on a personal payoff to some oddball Trump loyalist, but on one of Trump’s most cherished issues, his siding with Russia against Ukraine.

So now the GOP is the party of isolationism, international weakness, and Putin. Congrats. I’m sure Ronald Reagan would be proud of you — not! https://t.co/qS8oICs2Pf

— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) April 20, 2024

That’s not just a throwaway line. Indies and moderate voters dislike Putin and support Ukraine. Republicans including Trump risk a lot in this election by bucking what normal Americans want.

When I was coming up in politics, I was drawn to the "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" party. Today, the party of strength is the Democratic party. If the Democrats can sustain this identity and purpose, it will redefine American politics for decades. This is a return to… https://t.co/ByS4owhXQC

— Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) April 22, 2024

POLITICO:

How large parts of Trump’s trial are playing out in the shadows

Critical aspects of the case have been shielded from the media and the public.

Behind the scenes, a maze of arcane rules and archaic systems has made it virtually impossible for the media — and the public — to access key motions and pretrial rulings in real time. New York’s docketing practices have not been updated for the digital age. The judge, Justice Juan Merchan, has imposed policies that force days or even weeks of delays before crucial documents become public. When they do, they have been subject to a heavy, court-imposed redaction process.

And Merchan frequently uses email to communicate with Trump’s defense lawyers and the prosecutors from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office. That’s led to a ballooning set of off-the-book messages that are shielded from the public.

The result is that one of the most consequential chapters of American history is being drafted with missing pages and invisible ink.

I suspect the public is less bothered by this than reporters (who are not wrong). The trial starts today, and that’s more important than anything else.

Our poll also finds RFK Jr.'s candidacy hurting Trump more than Biden, which contrasts with other polling https://t.co/QfQB1p2dAy pic.twitter.com/Vw4uVYqdy9

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) April 21, 2024

POLITICO Magazine:

‘We Just Finally Saw the Dam Break’: How House Republicans Embraced the Chaos

Veteran Rep. Tom Cole is fed up with his party’s insurgents.

In press shorthand, Cole is usually described as an institutionalist, and since the tea party era, he’s also been known for butting heads with his more rambunctious, often newer colleagues on the far right.

Today’s antagonism toward House leadership stems from “a lack of respect for the institution and the wisdom of the institution,” he said. Speaking of the bomb-throwers, he added, “You know, you’ve got to grow up.”

Cole is also a member of the Chickasaw Nation, a trained historian and as a cigar aficionado, literally a devotee of Washington’s smoke-filled back rooms.

On this week’s episode of Playbook Deep Dive, we got deep into the weeds of why the Rules Committee has been such a trouble spot for recent GOP speakers and whether Cole thinks Johnson can hang on as members threaten to oust him. I also had Cole answer some prying questions from some of his favorite historians on the subject of Donald Trump.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden said he told Matt Gaetz to "kick rocks, tubby." "Matt Gaetz is a bully. Chip Roy is a bully. Bob Good's a bully. And the only way to stop a bully is to push back hard." Gaetz says that Van Orden is "not a particularly intelligent individual" pic.twitter.com/3IHeqIMKJP

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) April 21, 2024

The New York Times does its New York Times thing of mitigating any negative to Trump stories that they can:

Will a Mountain of Evidence Be Enough to Convict Trump?

Monday will see opening statements in the People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump. The state’s case seems strong, but a conviction is far from assured.

Though the district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, has assembled a mountain of evidence, a conviction is hardly assured. Over the next six weeks, Mr. Trump’s lawyers will seize on three apparent weak points: a key witness’s credibility, a president’s culpability and the case’s legal complexity.

Prosecutors will seek to maneuver around those vulnerabilities, dazzling the jury with a tale that mixes politics and sex, as they confront a shrewd defendant with a decades-long track record of skirting legal consequences. They will also seek to bolster the credibility of that key witness, Michael D. Cohen, a former fixer to Mr. Trump who previously pleaded guilty to federal crimes for paying the porn star, Stormy Daniels.

It’s showtime, baby. Watch the sparkly stone, avoid the tough questions about trying to throw an election.

But the news in this story is the DA will open with David Pecker. And pecker is the key witness, not Michael Cohen.

4/ Here's the passage from the NY Indictment indicating the evidence the DA - including through Pecker's own testimony - can present re the August 2015 Trump Tower meeting, which set the whole scheme in motion. link: https://t.co/n4YNsBYJhn pic.twitter.com/PpIrMJAYrg

— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) April 21, 2024

Contrast and compare the typical Washington Post/New York Times political coverage with this from Dan Froomkin/Press Watch:

An interview with a newsroom leader who speaks the truth about Donald Trump

A few weeks ago, the editor of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Chris Quinn, became an instant hero to the legion of news consumers who are fed up with the media’s refusal to call Donald Trump what he is.

In his weekly “letter from the editor,” under the headline “Our Trump reporting upsets some readers, but there aren’t two sides to facts,” Quinn wrote:

The north star here is truth. We tell the truth, even when it offends some of the people who pay us for information.

The truth is that Donald Trump undermined faith in our elections in his false bid to retain the presidency. He sparked an insurrection intended to overthrow our government and keep himself in power. No president in our history has done worse.

He continued, bluntly:

As for those who equate Trump and Joe Biden, that’s false equivalency. Biden has done nothing remotely close to the egregious, anti-American acts of Trump.

It was a brilliant clarion call against dishonest both-sidesing in political journalism, and it went viral. The response, as he wrote a week later, was overwhelming – and overwhelmingly positive.

Yuh-huh. Via Playbook. pic.twitter.com/TfSoIrGg12

— Amanda Carpenter (@amandacarpenter) April 21, 2024

POLITICO:

Trump’s New York trial is knocking him off balance

While the former president was stuck in court, his opponent hit the trail.

For the first time in months, despite his many legal entanglements in New York and elsewhere, it was Trump, not his opponent, President Joe Biden, who seemed to have been thrown off balance, constrained by a judge’s schedule and gag orders as he whipsawed between the courtroom and the functions of his campaign.

And even Trump seemed to acknowledge the liability that the trial was becoming for him — and likely will be for weeks more as the general election campaign picks up and, simultaneously, his court proceedings drag on.

April 22: Trial begins April 22: NYAG $175M Bond hearing April 23: Gag order hearing April 24: Nauta grand jury transcript April 25: SCOTUS immunity arguments

— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) April 20, 2024

Hicks and Pecker. Sounds like a new restaurant. It's actually a likely early witness list for Trump's trials.

Cliff Schecter covers what the political pundits gloss over:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The aftermath

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

We begin today with Annie Karni of The New York Times writing that House Speaker Mike Johnson now has a status within the Republican Party equivalent to former Vice President Mike Pence due to the House passage of funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan yesterday.

When Mr. Pence refused former President Donald J. Trump’s demands that he overturn the 2020 election results as he presided over the electoral vote count by Congress on Jan. 6, 2021 — even as an angry mob with baseball bats and pepper spray invaded the Capitol and chanted “hang Mike Pence” — the normally unremarkable act of performing the duties in a vice president’s job description was hailed as courageous. [...]

Mr. Johnson and Mr. Pence, both mild-mannered, extremely conservative evangelical Christians who have put their faith at the center of their politics, occupy a similar space in their party. They have both gone through contortions to accommodate Mr. Trump and the forces he unleashed in their party, which in turn have ultimately come after them. Mr. Pence spent four years dutifully serving the former president and defending all of his words and actions. Mr. Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, played a lead role in trying to overturn the election results on Mr. Trump’s behalf.

I’ll give Ms. Karni the “in their party” observation. But Mike Pence was quite sure that he would be breaking the law if he did as the shoe salesman asked him to do when he presided over the counting of electoral vote on Jan. 6, 2021 and to the extent that he wasn’t 100% sure, Mike Luttig and former Vice President Dan Quayle told him that Trump’s request was unconstitutional.

Speaker Johnson was trying to get needed security funding passed after delay after delay after delay and in defiance of the right flank of his party. Many people in the political world underestimated his ability to do it. So I’ll toss Johnson a cookie and say job well done but still...that does not make him Churchill.

Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney of POLITICO report that Speaker Johnson has staved off a challenge to his speakership for now.

That could go two ways for Johnson. Tempers could cool as lawmakers return to their districts for a week and focus on their constituents and reelection bids. Or members, particularly in deep-red districts, hear more from an angry base — prompting more members to entertain action against Johnson.

Greene and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, the second Republican to back ousting Johnson, are betting it’s the latter. And they reiterated their promises on Saturday that Johnson will ultimately face a choice: resign or face a referendum. [...]

Despite the intense fury among conservatives, some say they still won’t support the so-called motion to vacate. But if Johnson gets booted and goes for the gavel again, or tries to run to lead the GOP again next term, they said they wouldn’t support his bid.

David Frum of The Atlantic writes that the passage of the Ukraine funding bill in the House is yet another Trump loss on a policy issue and a sign of the shoe salesman’s diminished status.

The anti-Trump, pro-Ukraine rebellion started in the Senate. Twenty-two Republicans joined Democrats to approve aid to Ukraine in February. Dissident House Republicans then threatened to force a vote if the Republican speaker would not schedule one. Speaker Mike Johnson declared himself in favor of Ukraine aid. This weekend, House Republicans split between pro-Ukraine and anti-Ukraine factions. On Friday, the House voted 316–94 in favor of the rule on the aid vote. On Saturday, the aid to Ukraine measure passed the House by 311–112. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Senate will adopt the House-approved aid measures unamended and speed them to President Biden for signature.

As defeat loomed for his anti-Ukraine allies, Trump shifted his message a little. On April 18, he posted on Truth Social claiming that he, too, favored helping Ukraine. “As everyone agrees, Ukrainian Survival and Strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us!” But that was after-the-fact face-saving, jumping to the winning side after his side was about to lose. [...]

To make an avalanche takes more than one tumbling rock. Still, the pro-Ukraine, anti-Trump vote in the House is a very, very big rock. On something that mattered intensely to him—that had become a badge of pro-Trump identity—Trump’s own party worked with Democrats in the House and Senate to hand him a stinging defeat. This example could become contagious.

Renée Graham of The Boston Globe looks upon the criminal trial of the shoe salesman with some sadness.

So after months of delays due to Trump’s run-out-the-clock legal strategy, having the former president on trial is both overdue and welcome.

But it’s the latest disorienting moment exacted on this country since Trump’s literal descent into politics in 2015 with his first first presidential run. We have endured two impeachments; a deadly insurrection; his fanboying of murderous dictators; unveiled threats of retribution against his perceived enemies; and a profane disregard for the pillars of American democracy.

Now there’s the twisted possibility of a presumptive Republican presidential nominee also being a convicted felon. And despite this, tens of millions of people, mostly his fellow Republicans, including those like Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, who once pretended he could never support Trump, will vote to return to the White House the man who once called it “a real dump.”

It’s a disturbingly sad state of affairs.

Luis Feliz Leon writes for his labor blog Labor Notes (reprinted by In These Times) about the historic victory of workers who have voted to unionize at a Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

The United Auto Workers is riding a wave of momentum after winning landmark contracts at the Big Three automakers last year. Production workers at Volkswagen earn $23 per hour and top out above $32, compared to $43 for production workers at Ford’s Spring Hill assembly plant by the contract’s end in 2028. [...]

To head off a union drive, Volkswagen boosted wages 11% to match the immediate raise UAW members received at Ford. Peoples saw her pay jump from $29 to $32 an hour. [...]

The vote was a key test of whether the union could springboard the strike gains to propel new organizing in longtime anti-union bastions in the South, the anchors of big investments in the electric-vehicle transition.

The vote was 2,628 in favor of forming a union to 985 against. There were seven challenged ballots, and three voided; 4,326 workers were eligible to vote.

Edward Russell of The Washington Post report that construction is about to begin on a high-speed rail line connecting Las Vegas to a suburb of Los Angeles.

Travelers have a lot to look forward to. Electric trains will depart every 45 minutes from a Las Vegas station south of the city’s storied Strip and a Southern California station in Rancho Cucamonga, a Los Angeles suburb about 40 miles east of downtown.

Traveling at up to 186 mph — faster than any other train in the United States — Brightline West trains will make the 218-mile trip in about 2 hours and 10 minutes. [...]

Other high-speed railroads that would carry passengers at 200 mph and faster are in the works in California, Texas and the Pacific Northwest.

Driving between Rancho Cucamonga and Las Vegas takes at least three hours without traffic, according to Google Maps.

David Remnick of The New Yorker tries to make sense of the Iran-Israel kerfuffle as the Netanyahu government continues its destruction of Gaza.

There is no way to know whether another volley will be coming in the short term, but what is clear is that the decades-long shadow war between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer confined to the shadows. A line was crossed when Israel carried out a lethal air strike on Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a leading commander in Iran’s Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and six of his associates, who were meeting in a consular building in Damascus. That strike, as precise as it was deadly, was followed by Iran’s massive launch of drones and ballistic missiles on Israeli territory—an attack that was thoroughly repelled by a coördinated effort involving Israel, the United States, Britain, Jordan, the U.A.E., and Saudi Arabia.

By deploying such a relatively mild response near Isfahan, the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, seemingly attempted to thread a kind of political needle, at once mollifying the Biden Administration and the Sunni Arab leaders to avoid a regional escalation and yet satisfying his domestic political allies who demanded that he “do something.” Indeed, the Iranian leadership decided to absorb the latest attack with theatrical cool. State television showed “life as usual” footage in the area and insisted that the regime’s nuclear and military sites in the region were undamaged.

Zia Ur Rehman of Deutsche Welle reports on the chill in the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The relationship between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan's government has been growing more and more strained since the fall of Kabul in August 2021.

Many experts attribute the current tensions to the increase in cross-border terrorism originating from Afghanistan.

But some of Islamabad's recent actions have also embittered the Taliban regime — last year, Pakistan enforced trade restrictions on its neighboring country, expelled 500,000 undocumented Afghan migrants , and implemented stricter visa policies at border crossings. [...]

As ties with Pakistan cool, the Taliban administration is forging new partnerships.

Western powers remain hesitant, but other players such as China, Russia, Iran, India, and some Central Asian states are cautiously engaging with the regime.

Finally today, I ate breakfast at a local restaurant yesterday and was quite audible saying things like “she is nuts” as I was reading George Parker’s batsh*t crazy interview with former British prime minister Liz Truss in The Financial Times.

Truss explains that she is having Lunch with the FT because “you’ve got to know the enemy” — before clarifying that she doesn’t regard the FT as part of the deep state per se, more a kind of flying buttress propping it up. Along with other sinister elements in a leftwing “anti-growth coalition” — she has singled out “Brexit deniers”, people with podcasts and those living in north London town houses — the FT apparently helped to ensure that Truss’s time in Downing Street famously had the longevity of a supermarket lettuce.

Liz is one step away from talking about Jewish space lasers, y’all!

Have the best possible day everyone!

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: We have our jury

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

The Washington Post:

The U.S. just changed how it manages a tenth of its land

The Interior Department rule puts conservation and clean energy development on par with drilling, mining and resource extraction on federal lands for the first time

The final rule released Thursday represents a seismic shift in the management of roughly 245 million acres of public property — about one-tenth of the nation’s land mass. It is expected to draw praise from conservationists and legal challenges from fossil fuel industry groups and Republican officials, some of whom have lambasted the move as a “land grab.”

Interior’s Bureau of Land Management, known as the nation’s largest landlord, has long offered leases to oil and gas companies, mining firms and ranchers. Now, for the first time, the nearly 80-year-old agency will auction off “restoration leases” and “mitigation leases” to entities with plans to restore or conserve public lands.

A prospective juror, talking about who he follows on Twitter, tells the court, “Let’s go with Twitter, I don’t call it X.”

— Olivia Nuzzi (@Olivianuzzi) April 18, 2024

The New York Times:

After Reports About Trump Jurors, Judge Demands Restraint From the Press

Some news reports have included details about jurors that had been aired in open court. One was excused after she developed concerns about being identified.

The judge in former President Donald J. Trump’s criminal trial ordered reporters to not disclose employment information about potential jurors after he excused a woman who said she was worried about her identity becoming known.

The woman, who had been seated on the jury on Tuesday, told the judge that her friends and colleagues had warned her that she had been identified as a juror in the high-profile case. Although the judge has kept prospective jurors’ names private, some have disclosed their employers and other identifying information in court.

She also said that she did not believe she could be impartial.

The judge, Juan M. Merchan, promptly dismissed her.

Moments later, Justice Merchan ordered the press to not report the answer to two queries on a lengthy questionnaire for prospective jurors: “Who is your current employer?” and “Who was your prior employer?”

They have 12 jurors as of Thursday afternoon and an alternate, and are now selecting the other five alternates.

Arye Deri and Moshe Gafni have both relayed to Netanyahu their rabbis’ warnings against launching an attack on Iran without coordination with the US. It’s a rare ultra-Orthodox intervention in security matters which could mean 3 things >

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) April 18, 2024

3 The Haredi politicians are Netanyahu’s most loyal partners. If they’ve let it be known their rabbis are against attacking Iran, it’s because Netanyahu wants this to be known. He doesn’t want to rush an attack but he needs political cover from the far-right who are demanding it.

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) April 18, 2024

Last night there was a limited attack on Iran. But:

It appears that the attack in Iran was executed through glide bombs. That is important, because those were likely launched not from Israel but elsewhere. In addition, they can’t be traced through radar. This goes with the radio silence from Israel. Meanwhile, an IDF source told…

— Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) April 19, 2024

Here is the full tweet above:

It appears that the attack in Iran was executed through glide bombs. That is important, because those were likely launched not from Israel but elsewhere. In addition, they can’t be traced through radar. This goes with the radio silence from Israel. Meanwhile, an IDF source told FOX News the operation was “limited.” What the attack was going for is plausible deniability. That will allow Iran to pretend this isn’t a big deal and react without major escalation. Iran seems to be playing along so far. That would also go with approval from the United States, which seems to have been obtained a day in advance.

Joe Perticone/The Bulwark:

Mike Johnson Finds a Way, Despite the Odds Plus: The shortest and silliest impeachment trial in history.

For some background on the unique process by which Johnson is going about this, see Tuesday’s edition of Press Pass. Today, I want to catch you up on the events that have unfolded since Johnson unveiled the four-bills-one-rule plan. Given the way the 118th Congress has functioned so far—it has been among the least effective Congresses in modern history—we may be on the verge of seeing a clever maneuver to circumvent the members who have been holding the chamber hostage.

Since Johnson laid his cards on the table on Monday, the individual bill texts have been released. The toplines are as follows:

Johnson created a plan that insulates him from potential scheming and alterations by the Senate, while structuring a package that essentially includes what has already passed the upper chamber.

Rep. Moskowitz's amendments to the Ukraine aid bill: 1. Rename Marjorie Taylor-Greene's office to the Neville Chamberlain Room 2. Appoint Marjorie Taylor-Greene as Vladimir Putin's Special Envoy to the US pic.twitter.com/Ep6Pfq6Vo7

— Kareem Rifai 🌐 (@KareemRifai) April 18, 2024

POLITICO:

Party leaders try to break standoff over Johnson's foreign aid package

The Rules Committee hasn't yet returned from a break, as Democrats and Republicans negotiate how to move the four bills to the floor.

In exchange for helping circumvent the conservatives, Democrats are hoping they’ll be able to extract concessions from the other side of the aisle and are actively talking with Republicans, according to those people. But it’s not clear what, if anything, Johnson would give them for helping bring the bills to the floor. Democrats have called on him to bring Ukraine aid, in particular, to the floor for months.

“I think Democrats will act in a manner that's incredibly united once we see the rule and see what it says,” Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.), who sits on the Rules committee, told POLITICO Thursday when the meeting recessed.

She wouldn’t comment directly on whether Democrats have heard from Johnson, but added, “I hear that [Johnson] has put a lot of time and thinking into this.”

Simon Rosenberg/”The Hopium Chronicles” on Substack looks at the newest Harvard IOP Youth Poll:

Winning Arizona, Making Calls For Ukraine, A Good Youth Poll, A Bluer 2024 Election

Note that the poll breaks out “likely voters” from “registered voters,” which is important as so many young people don’t end up voting. Some initial takeaways from me:

  • 18-29 year old vote intention is about the same as it was in the spring of 2020, a very high youth turnout year.

  • Biden leads 56-39 (+19) among voters 18-29 year olds likely to vote. He won 18-29 year old voters by 60-36 in 2020, so off a bit but with work we can match our 2020 results. As I say here every day, some of our coalition is wandering now, and we need to go get them back. To repeat - this result is neither suprising, or worrisome.

  • The data on Israel-Gaza is consistent with what I’ve been writing here - while an important issue, it is unlikely to be a voting issue for a large number of young people this fall: “When young Americans are asked whether or not they believe Israel's response so far to the October 7 attack by Hamas has been justified, a plurality indicates that they don't know (45%). About a fifth (21%) report that Israel's response was justified with 32% believing it was not justified.”

I also found this section to be particularly interesting: “Among the 1,051 "likely voters" in our sample, we found significant differences in support levels based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education levels, among other subgroups.

'Never bring James Comer to a Jamie Raskin fight': Republican skewered over testy battle https://t.co/zdppIo1Tv8

— Morgan Fairchild (@morgfair) April 18, 2024

Will Bunch/The Philadelphia Inquirer:

Fear and loathing on America’s college campuses as free speech is disappearing

Student activists say fear and paranoia has descended on college campus around free speech as college administrators cave into a new brand of McCarthyism.

Student activists told me they feel constantly watched, either by university officials they think are monitoring their Wi-Fi or watching from omnipresent cameras — or by pro-Israel outside groups that have “doxxed” the personal information of pro-Palestinian protesters.

This week’s jarring news out of the University of Southern California that its Muslim valedictorian, Asna Tabassum, would not be allowed to give her upcoming commencement speech because of what the school called “safety concerns” — after some critics had singled out some of her X/Twitter posts over Palestine — gave the rest of America a window into what students and some of their professors have been saying for months: Free speech and political expression at U.S. universities is facing its greatest threat since the 1950s “Red Scare” and the heyday of McCarthyism.

Two Carleton College professors who write frequently and host a podcast around questions of academic freedom actually argue the current crisis is even worse than that dark era.

The odds of Republicans losing AZ on all levels this year just continues to increase, quite frankly. https://t.co/lc0ZTXpG8y

— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) April 17, 2024

Hannah Metzger/Westword:

Abortion Ban Fails to Qualify for Ballot: "Colorado Is Not a Place Where You Can Mess With Our Reproductive Freedom"

On the same day, an abortion rights initiative submitted nearly double the signatures needed for the November election.

An initiative seeking to ban abortion will not appear on Colorado's ballot in November after the campaign failed to collect enough legitimate signatures to qualify. The campaign behind Initiative 81: Protections for a Living Child says it collected "tens of thousands of signatures" but fell short of the 124,238 it needed to turn in by April 18. If approved by voters, the ballot measure would have banned abortion at any point after conception, classifying it as homicide. "God gave us a choice between life and death for our state," Faye Barnhart, who co-led the campaign, said in a statement. "Many didn’t have the faith or vision to see this amazing window of opportunity to lead our state to choose life. We mourn the loss of these children’s lives because we didn’t do everything we could to save them." The anti-abortion measure's failure comes on the same day that a pro-abortion-rights campaign says it turned in nearly 240,000 signatures in support of another proposed ballot measure, Initiative 89: Right to Abortion. That proposal asks voters to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution, and also allow state funds — including Medicaid and state employee health insurance — to be used to pay for abortions.

It takes 55% to pass, since it’s a constitutional amendment.

NEW: House Rules Committee just voted 9-3 to advance the foreign aid package to the House floor. In a rare turn, Democrats voted with most of the GOP, while Reps. Massie, Norman and Roy voted no.

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) April 19, 2024

The last time this happened was nearly thirty years ago.

Cliff Schecter on the media’s OJ trial coverage and its relevance today:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Arizona embraces the culture wars on the losing side

New York Times:

Abortion Jumps to the Center of Arizona’s Key 2024 Races

Democrats quickly aimed to capitalize on a ruling by the state’s highest court upholding an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions.

Democrats seized on a ruling on Tuesday by Arizona’s highest court upholding an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions, setting up a fierce political fight over the issue that is likely to dominate the presidential election and a pivotal Senate race in a crucial battleground state.

Even though the court put its ruling on hold for now, President Biden and his campaign moved quickly to blame former President Donald J. Trump for the loss of abortion rights, noting that he has taken credit for appointing the Supreme Court justices who overturned a constitutional right to abortion. Just a day earlier, Mr. Trump had sought to defang what has become a toxic issue for Republicans by saying that abortion restrictions should be decided by the states and their voters.

Remember, abortion is fading in saliency as an issue, say umpteen anonymous male Republican consultants.

Abortion opponents still expect federal action from Trump. Here’s what it could look like. https://t.co/qRSWDVhK1T

— Mike Walker (@New_Narrative) April 10, 2024

Dan Balz/Washington Post:

The Arizona Supreme Court just upended Trump’s gambit on abortion

On Monday, Trump declined to support a national abortion ban, seeking to neutralize the political issue. A day later, Arizona’s ban gave it new life.

On Monday, the former president declined to support any new national law setting limits on abortions. Going against the views of many abortion opponents in his Republican Party, Trump was looking for a way to neutralize or at least muddy a galvanizing issue that has fueled Democratic victories for nearly two years. He hoped to keep it mostly out of the conversation ahead of the November elections.

On Tuesday, the Arizona Supreme Court showed just how difficult it will be to do that. The court resurrected an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions, except to save the life of the mother. The law also imposes penalties on abortion providers.

Trump had said let the states handle the issue. The Arizona court showed the full implications of that states’ rights strategy.

Or, if you will, Arizona Supreme Court destroys news organization plans to declare the abortion issue neutralized (it wasn’t).

Get this measure on the Arizona ballot. Run in every district. Then flip Arizona blue at every level (only one seat shy of a Dem majority in the AZ statehouse) https://t.co/MWH1zmwJMv

— David Pepper (@DavidPepper) April 10, 2024

Marc A Caputo/ The Bulwark:

MAGA Takes Aim at RFK Jr.: ‘Radical F—ing Kennedy’

They turned on him overnight once they realized he’d be a threat to Trump and not only to Biden.

TRUMP ADVISERS QUIETLY acknowledge they and the right helped build up RFK Jr., especially after the pandemic when Kennedy’s anti-vaccine activism gained broader attention and support among conservatives.

“For more than two years, Kennedy was on more conservative media than any of the Republicans who ran for president, so he’s partly a monster of our own making,” said one adviser in Trump’s orbit. “But the same conservative media apparatus that built him up is starting to tear him down. It’s easy. He’s a liberal.”

That cocksure sentiment pervades Trump’s campaign, where they view Kennedy more as an opportunity than a danger.

Matt Bennett, executive vice president of Third Way, said Kennedy has benefited from his famous last name, his savvy social media use, and his lack of a political record. Bennett doesn’t think the candidate will be able to withstand the scrutiny that’s coming now that the threat he represents has become clearer.

“Kennedy is in for a rough ride. We need to make sure lower-information voters don’t somehow think, ‘Oh, it’s his dad.’ Or that he’s a safe pair of hands,” Bennett said. “He’s a lunatic. He lies. He’s a bad person.”

If you constructed a Venn diagram of states important to the presidential race, the Senate, or abortion access this November, Arizona would be smack in the overlapping middle. https://t.co/Ts784gkO60

— Larry Levitt (@larry_levitt) April 9, 2024

Will Bunch/Philadelphia Inquirer:

Is Team Trump meddling in the Middle East?

This weekend, the endless gusher of petrodollars from Riyadh left their oily mark on the dim jewel of Trump’s fast-fading empire, the Trump National Doral course outside of Miami. There, the Saudi-funded LIV Golf tour brought yet another televised and star-studded tournament to a resort owned by the 45th president’s business arm.

We don’t how much the LIV tour — largely a creation of the massive sovereign wealth fund controlled by the Saudi dictator Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) — paid the Trump Organization for the three-day event. The LIV people insist the money is nominal, but no one would argue that the widely seen tournaments are propping up Trump’s coffers at a time when his hotel brand is in the loo, and the established PGA golf tour is avoiding the ex-POTUS and his 88 felony charges.

What every anti-abortion politician in America is reading this morning as they call their pollster and ask them how to pretend this is not their position: pic.twitter.com/5xCANDelcz

— Cole Leiter (@coleleiter) April 10, 2024

David Gilbert/Wired:

Inside the Election Denial Groups Planning to Disrupt November

Groups like True the Vote and Michael Flynn’s America Project want to mobilize thousands of Trump supporters by pushing baseless claims about election fraud—and are rolling out new technology to fast-track their efforts.

As the most consequential presidential election in a generation looms in the United States, get-out-the-vote efforts across the country are more important than ever. But multiple far-right activist groups with ties to former president Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee are mobilizing their supporters in earnest, drawing on one baseline belief: Elections in the US are rigged, and citizens need to do something about it.

All the evidence states otherwise. But in recent weeks, these groups have held training sessions about how to organize on a hyperlocal level to monitor polling places and drop boxes, challenge voter registrations en masse, and intimidate and harass voters and election officials. And some are preparing to roll out new technology to fast-track all of these efforts: One of the groups claims they’re launching a new platform for checking voter rolls that contains billions of “data elements” on every single US citizen.

Yet another W for patience and uncertainty. It’s never a hot take, but it’s always where the smart money is this early in the campaign. FWIW, if Biden jumps out to a non-negligible lead in the next few months, I wouldn’t be so fast to pop the champagne just yet either. https://t.co/QhyD17GAoj

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) April 9, 2024

Jennifer Rubin/Washington Post:

Don’t overlook these five aspects of Trump’s N.Y. trial

Trump’s first impeachment seems like ancient history. But House impeachment investigators interviewed Hope Hicks and Michael Cohen, and delved into the facts concerning payment to women to silence them before the 2016 election. The hush money scheme was grist for impeachment because procuring office by corrupt means can be a sufficient basis for impeachment.

Philip Bump/Washington Post:

How much time and money will the GOP waste chasing imaginary election fraud?

Fox host Maria Bartiromo has proved to be one of the most credulous members of the right-wing media universe. This was understood by her own employers in 2020 when one executive warned another that she had “GOP conspiracy theorists in her ear and they use her for their message sometimes.” In the wake of the 2020 election, she flirted with the most ridiculous fraud theories then circulating; more recently, she was a constant promoter of the discredited idea that Joe Biden had been bribed by a Ukrainian businessman.

Yet she also remains one of the most prominent voices on Fox News and Fox Business. One need not engage in conspiracy-theorizing to guess some reasons for that.

And finally, the exclamation point on this amazing college hoops season.

Iowa/SC women’s final outdrew the following:•Every World Series game since Game 7 of the 2019 World Series •Every NBA Finals game since Game 5 of the 2017 NBA Finals •Every Daytona 500 since 2006 •Every Masters final round viewership since 2001!!!!!!!

— Eric Segall (@espinsegall) April 9, 2024

Candace Buckner/Washington Post:

Connecticut unlocked the overwhelming beauty of a team game

More than other team sports, basketball thrives on individual talent. Singular stars fuel intrigue. They make us sit up and pay attention. And the superstars make us believe that one vs. five maintains pretty good odds. Then a night such as Monday comes along and wrecks the belief that you need a superstar to win.

Somewhere in the Purdue locker room sat [Perdue’s center Zach] Edey, his season having ended in disappointment, with a lonely shower awaiting. Meanwhile, the Connecticut Huskies were busy changing clothes on the court. Their new shirts read: “2024 Men’s Basketball National CHAMPS” — that word more prominent than the others.

Cliff Schecter covers General Mark Milley’s opinion of Donald Trump:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Revisiting election predictions

This prediction was from 2023 by David Frum/The Atlantic:

The Coming Biden Blowout

Republicans thought about running without Trump in 2024—but lost their nerve. They’re heading for electoral disaster again.

‘The Republican plan for 2024 is already failing, and the party leadership can see it and knows it.

There was no secret to a more intelligent and intentional Republican plan for 2024. It would have gone like this:

(1) Replace Donald Trump at the head of the ticket with somebody less obnoxious and impulsive.

(2) Capitalize on inflation and other economic troubles.

This one is from the last few days, from a podcast with Greg Sargent/The New Republic:

Why Trump’s Lunacy Is Suddenly Raising GOP Fears of Down-Ballot Losses

Republicans facing tough races seem to have realized that having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket might pose a problem. What took them so long?

GOP members of Congress facing tough races are suddenly worried that having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket might present them with a problem, according to new reports. They fear having to answer for Trump’s degeneracy and extremism, even as the GOP’s small-donor base is not delivering at the very moment that Trump is siphoning off party money for legal fees. What explains this sudden GOP epiphany about Trump? How likely is it that these fears will materialize? We chatted with Tim Persico, a top Democratic operative involved in House races in 2022, who provided insights into how this Trump effect really works.

House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good endorsed Derrick Evans, a convicted Capitol rioter, in his primary challenge against a sitting House Republican. https://t.co/1ezbnWrCvz

— Mike Walker (@New_Narrative) April 3, 2024

Rep. Carol Miller's spokeswoman responds to Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good endorsing her opponent in her West Virginia district primary. The GOP member v member tensions continue on the campaign trail: https://t.co/3STihhHsPw https://t.co/ZFXKXrFie5

— Marianna Sotomayor (@MariannaReports) April 3, 2024

Tom Nichols/The Atlantic:

Supporting Trump Means Supporting a Culture of Violence

The former president is encouraging threats against his enemies—again.

Over the weekend, Donald Trump sent out a video with an image of Joe Biden bound like a hostage, and linked to an article with a photo of the daughter of the judge in his hush-money trial in New York. Voters need to confront the reality of what supporting Trump means.

On Good Friday, Donald Trump shared a video that prominently featured a truck with a picture of a hog-tied Joe Biden on it. I’ve seen this art on a tailgate in person, and it looks like a kidnapped Biden is a captive in the truck bed.

The former president, running for his old office, knowingly transmitted a picture of the sitting president of the United States as a bound hostage.

Of course, Trump’s spokesperson Steven Cheung quickly began the minimizing and what-abouting: “That picture,” he said in a statement, “was on the back of a pick up truck that was traveling down the highway. Democrats and crazed lunatics have not only called for despicable violence against President Trump and his family, they are actually weaponizing the justice system against him.”

POLITICO:

Hill GOP to Trump: Tamp down the talk of grudges and Jan. 6

They’re concerned about a rerun of the hair-pulling past — where Republican candidates in battleground races are constantly challenged to answer for his more erratic statements.

Trump is unlikely to heed such warnings to pivot to a more consistent general election message. So far this month, he has said that Jewish Americans who vote for Democrats “hate” their religion and described some migrants as “not people.”

But the fact that Hill Republicans are even attempting to refocus him, underscored by nearly 20 interviews with lawmakers and aides, illustrates their real worries about a 2024 cycle where their electoral fates are inescapably tied to the man at the top of the ticket.

POLITICO:

Republicans are rushing to defend IVF. The anti-abortion movement hopes to change their minds.

The groups are not advocating banning IVF but want new restrictions that would significantly curtail access to the procedure.

Anti-abortion advocates worked for five decades to topple Roe v. Wade. They’re now laying the groundwork for a yearslong fight to curb in vitro fertilization.

Since the Alabama Supreme Court ruled last month that frozen embryos are children, the Heritage Foundation and other conservative groups have been strategizing how to convince not just GOP officials but evangelicals broadly that they should have serious moral concerns about fertility treatments like IVF and that access to them should be curtailed.

In short, they want to re-run the Roe playbook.

Today, Trump said he'd spoken with the family of Ruby Garcia, who was recently murdered by an undocumented immigrant in Michigan. Ruby Garcia's family says that isn't true. https://t.co/ikiNcd8kr5

— Zack Stanton (@zackstanton) April 2, 2024

Craig Gilbert/Milwaukee Journal sentinel:

For Donald Trump, Wisconsin in 2024 looks a lot like Wisconsin in 2016

Eight years ago in Wisconsin’s GOP primary, Donald Trump suffered his last big defeat on his way to the nomination, undone by a huge geographic divide over his candidacy.

Trump won the Republican vote in the rural north and west but was thrashed in metropolitan Milwaukee and Madison.

This year, Trump wrapped up his party’s nomination long before Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary (and will campaign today in Green Bay).

But the regional schisms in the GOP over the former president have re-emerged, a polling analysis shows.

Gregg T Nunziata/The Dispatch with a conservative opinion about what went wrong:

The Conservative Legal Movement Got Everything It Wanted. It Could Lose It All.

Trump-era advances in jurisprudence came at a deep civic cost.

Contrary to the fears of liberals and the misplaced hopes of Trump, conservative judicial appointees upheld the principle of judicial independence. They refused to serve as reliable partisans and handed Trump and his administration important legal defeats. Crucially, Trump’s nominees rejected his baseless claims of a stolen election.

But these advances in jurisprudence came at a deep civic cost. The president with whom legal conservatives allied themselves used his office to denigrate the rule of law, mock the integrity of the justice system, attack American institutions, and undermine public faith in democracy. Beyond the rhetoric, he abused emergency powers, manipulated appropriated funds for personal political ends, and played fast and loose with the appointments clause, all at the cost of core congressional powers.

Republicans in Congress barely resisted these actions and increasingly behaved more like courtiers than members of a co-equal branch of government. They failed to treat either of his impeachments with appropriate constitutional gravity. House Republicans dismissed his first impeachment process. Leading senators not only ignored centuries of precedent by refusing to conduct a meaningful trial, but they debased themselves by traipsing to the White House to guffaw and applaud while the president celebrated his acquittal.

News: Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola brought in an eye-popping $1.7 million in the first three months of the year, bringing her war chest to $2.5 million as she prepares to defend the Trumpiest seat held by a Democrat. https://t.co/AT2TR4lpxz

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) April 2, 2024

That’s what happens when you’re pro fish.

Cliff Schecter covers Stacey Plaskett taking down Jim Jordan:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Being in Congress is about more than just getting elected

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Bess Levin/Vanity Fair:

Over 100 House Republicans Will Skip GOP Retreat Because They Hate Each Other So Much: Report

They apparently don’t want to spend any more time together than they’re contractually obligated to.
When he abruptly announced his decision yesterday to quit Congress early, [Rep. Ken] Buck said, of the dysfunction on Capitol Hill: “It is the worst year of the nine years and three months that I’ve been in Congress and having talked to former members, it’s the worst year in 40, 50 years to be in Congress.… This place has just devolved into this bickering and nonsense and not really doing the job for the American people.” Specifically calling out his fellow Republicans, he said: “We’ve taken impeachment, and we’ve made it a social media issue as opposed to a constitutional concept—this place keeps going downhill, and I don’t need to spend more time here.”

16. Just as Clinton’s economic policies finally ended the presidencies of Roosevelt and Johnson, Biden’s economic policies are finally ending the presidencies of Reagan and Clinton.

— The Editorial Board (@johnastoehr) March 14, 2024

Jeff Tiedrich/”everyone is entitled to my own opinion” on Substack:

Handy Oakley’s days in Congress are numbered as the House GOP freaks the fuck out boo fucking hoo

the House GOP is in total disarray and it’s super fucking hilarious.

right now, House Republicans are running around the halls of Congress with their pants around their ankles and soup pots on their heads and banging the fuck into the walls and each other — it’s twenty-megaton clownshoes bedlam.

they’re resigning left and right. their majority is shrinking. half the them hate the guts of the other half — every single one of them is an incompetent imbecile who couldn’t govern their way out of a paper bag.

the collective IQ of the whole worthless lot of them couldn’t generate enough wattage to warm a leftover slice of pizza, which makes it all the more amusing to watch them freak the fuck out and melt down into a rancid puddle of stupid.

Yeah, but what do you really think, Jeff?

Want to hear me give my case for the importance of NATO? Over at @UnPopulistMag, I debate this very issue with my discourse partner @shikhadalmia https://t.co/AUuYDC6Yj6

— Berny Belvedere (@bernybelvedere) March 14, 2024

Will Bunch/The Philadelphia Inquirer:

Voters don’t have a clue about how much worse Trump’s second term would be Many voters seem fooled that Trump 47 would be a bland replay of Trump 45, not the authoritarian nightmare he actually plans.

Gameli Fenuku, a 22-year-old Black college student in Richmond, Va., is exactly the demographic you’d think would never vote for Donald Trump in November — and indeed, he may not. But Fenuku told the New York Times he hasn’t ruled out supporting the presumptive GOP nominee, either. That’s because he remembers his teen years under Trump as a time when a lot of things were a lot better than he sees them now — especially the economy.

[...]

The Virginia college student is the face of a phenomenon that is shaping the 2024 rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden with less than eight months to go. The polls and interviews suggest a lot of voters are responding no to the ex-president’s borrowing of Ronald Reagan’s famous question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” This despite Trump’s army of detractors calling this “collective amnesia” about a twice-impeached president who nearly four years ago was wondering if Americans should be drinking bleach to tackle COVID-19.

Less than three-and-a-half years after the U.S. electorate made Trump the first 21st-century president to lose reelection — and by a solid, seven million vote margin — a poll taken by a liberal climate group found 52% of today’s voters now approve of Trump’s former presidency.

Bill Scher/Washington Monthly:

Biden doesn't need guilty verdicts to win

Any strategy to defeat Trump should not be premised on help from the judiciary.

Most national polls show Donald Trump leading Joe Biden. But when pollsters ask whom would voters prefer if Trump was convicted of a felony, Biden always comes out on top.

This understandably makes Democrats eager for Trump's many trials to get underway, and deeply anxious when Trump's delay tactics succeed.

But the delays are an implicit reminder that nothing is certain about the outcome of the Trump trials, and any strategy to defeat Trump should not be premised on help from the judiciary.

Delay is the name of the game, and judges and Justices seem all too eager to play along.

New: Trump flip-flopped on a possible TikTok ban because he wants to try to drive a wedge between Biden and young voters. Here's how he plans to do it with some thoughts on how to fight back https://t.co/9wF4idNJfA

— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) March 14, 2024

Philip Bump/The Washington Post:

Polling won’t tell you who will win in November, but it’s not meant to

So let’s use the occasion of Biden’s comments to do three things. First, let’s establish that polling is an effective way to measure public opinion. Second, let’s clarify that does not mean that a poll conducted today will accurately capture who will win the presidential election. And third, let’s further clarify that even the last polls conducted before this year’s election will almost certainly show no more than who is more likely to win.

Those three things might seem contradictory, but they are not. If you use a paper map to plan your route to your destination, you’ll have a good sense of how long it will take. You should not, however, assume that it will provide you with a Google Maps-like estimate of your arrival time to the minute. It’s not real-time, for one thing, and it’s simply not designed to be as precise.

An anti-fascist consensus, reimagined?   Biden’s State of the Union offered a vision of what it means to “defend democracy” that should, if taken seriously, transform America – and help re-think liberalism – rather than just restore pre-Trump “normalcy” (link in bio):   🧵1/ pic.twitter.com/bpUtyF75Ke

— Thomas Zimmer (@tzimmer_history) March 13, 2024

Greg Sargent/The New Republic:

Trump Is the Big Loser as the GOP’s Impeachment Farce Implodes

The case against Trump is based on things that actually happened, while the case against Biden is based largely on inventions.

That might seem counterintuitive. What does Trump’s culpability have to do with the case against Biden? Yet step back a bit and the dynamic becomes clear: The GOP arguments for impeaching Biden are revealed at their most absurd when the two cases are laid side by side.

What’s more, when the GOP’s game is fully exposed—that it’s not just about hatching fake evidence of crimes by Biden but also about muddying the waters around evidence of crimes by Trump that is very real—that’s when the GOP posture becomes most indefensible.

Signs of this dynamic are everywhere. On Tuesday, the House Judiciary Committee held a hearing that purported to grill Robert Hur, the special counsel who recently released a report exonerating Biden that also contained damning but gratuitous claims about his age and memory...

But the hearing was largely a bust for Republicans. The savvy observers at Politico’s Playbook called it a “dud” and reported that it has prompted Republicans to look for an “off ramp” from their impeachment push, which turns on a separate set of claims about the Biden family’s business dealings that have also largely collapsed.

POLITICO:

As Biden impeachment stalls, House GOP turns to backup plans

While Republicans have considered other paths to antagonize the White House for months, those plans have taken on fresh importance as a vote to impeach seems doomed.

But Republicans are determined not to give up on a push that’s still a high priority for the GOP base — especially since abandoning it altogether could alienate conservatives they need to turn out in November. So they’re exploring backup options to keep the spotlight on so-far-unproven allegations that Biden misused the public offices he’s held to benefit his family’s businesses.

Those Plan Bs include legislative reforms like tighter financial disclosure and foreign lobbying guardrails; criminal referrals for Hunter Biden and others to the Justice Department; a potential lawsuit for DOJ officials’ testimony and calls from some within their conference to just keep investigating, pushing the probe closer to Election Day.

Any of those off-ramps come with risks of their own — namely that they require cooperation from the Senate or the Justice Department — but, the current GOP thinking goes, Republicans would at least have something to show to their anti-Biden voters with their thin majority on the line.

In other words, having made stuff up from the beginning, they continue to make stuff up. I can’t imagine that’s going to satisfy the base, but it’s all they’ve got.

Between his unpopularity and the structural forces against third parties, Menendez would be lucky to get 5% of the vote. #NJsen https://t.co/iRTJLzWrfP

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) March 14, 2024

Cliff Schecter and Tony Michaels on Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson of North Carolina:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The Hur hearing was a political disaster—for Republicans

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

First came the transcript, in which Joe Biden was clearly documented to remember the date his son Beau died, if not the year (that’s normal for most people). And then came the hearing in which Robert Hur could not remember complementing Biden on his memory until Democrats read him the transcript. This part in particular, from the transcript (via The New York Times), is telling:

And when Mr. Biden provided a lengthy description of the layout of his house in Delaware — portions of which were redacted in the transcript for security reasons — Mr. Hur observed that Mr. Biden appeared to have “a photographic understanding and, and recall of the house.”

The level of credulity with which that document was taken ought to prompt some reflection in light of what we saw from Biden at SOTU, what we see in the full transcript, Hur now working with GOP campaign operatives, etc https://t.co/PschNP36io

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) March 12, 2024

Philip Bump/The Washington Post:

The GOP’s new Biden attack is weakening its old one

Biden “knew the rules,” Jordan added, “but he broke them for $8 million in a book advance!”

This argument, by itself, isn’t tenable. There’s no indication that the material Hur references was essential to the Beau Biden story or to the publisher offering the advance. Hur’s report indicates that the material wasn’t used in the book. But view it from Jordan’s perspective: At last, he has a tenuous link between Biden taking money and his doing something described by a third-party as inappropriate.

Comer, given a chance to ask questions of Hur, tried to backstop the impeachment inquiry without much effect. Unfortunately, Hur’s actual work significantly undercut the idea that Biden was working in cahoots with his family.

completely reprehensible that Republicans smeared Biden for not remembering when his son died when that's clearly a lie pic.twitter.com/tp5SO0qZGC

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2024

The New York Times:

Anti-Trump Group of Republicans Lays Out $50 Million Plan of Attack

The group, Republican Voters Against Trump, will run a series of homemade videos of Americans who voted for him in the past but say they can no longer do so in 2024.

The group, Republican Voters Against Trump, first emerged in the 2020 campaign and made a return appearance for the 2022 midterm elections. It is run by Sarah Longwell, a leading figure in Never-Trump politics whose focus groups and polling are a staple of center-right podcasts and have made her a go-to figure for political reporters aiming to decipher the motivations behind Trump supporters.

Not hard to tell which party had the momentum after the State of the Union https://t.co/J1JVkpCCjE

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) March 11, 2024

Judd Legum and Tesnim Zekeria/”Popular Information” on Substack:

New data explodes myth of crime wave fueled by migrants

The most comprehensive look at violent crime in the United States in 2023 will come when the FBI publishes its national Uniform Crime Report. But that will not happen until the fall. But, as crime analyst Jeff Asher explains in his newsletter, the FBI report is based on individual Uniform Crime Reports submitted by each state. Asher identified 14 states that have released their Uniform Crime Reports publicly. The data has not been completely finalized and could be adjusted slightly before formally submitting it to the FBI. But this data is the best early look at violent crime trends last year.

Asher found that both murder and violent crime declined in 12 of 14 states.

Swalwell: You said to President Biden, “you appear to have a photographic understanding and recall.” Did you say that? Hur: Those words do appear in the transcript Swalwell: Never appeared in your report Hur: It does not appear in my report pic.twitter.com/jKJA6HCesd

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 12, 2024

CNN:

GOP Rep. Ken Buck to leave Congress at end of next week

Buck criticized dysfunction on Capitol Hill in discussing his decision to leave, telling CNN’s Dana Bash, “It is the worst year of the nine years and three months that I’ve been in Congress and having talked to former members, it’s the worst year in 40, 50 years to be in Congress. But I’m leaving because I think there’s a job to do out there.”

“This place has just devolved into this bickering and nonsense and not really doing the job for the American people,” he said.

SPEAKER JOHNSON says Buck didn’t give him a heads up ahead of this announcement “I didn’t know,” he said, adding that he looks forward to chatting with him https://t.co/c7n4RGKno1

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) March 12, 2024

POLITICO:

Bloodbath at RNC: Trump team slashes staff at committee

Dozens of staffers are expected to be let go.

All told, the expectation is that more than 60 RNC staffers who work across the political, communications and data departments will be let go. Those being asked to resign include five members of the senior staff, though the names were not made public. Additionally, some vendor contracts are expected to be cut.

[...]

Trump advisers have described the RNC’s structure as overly bloated and bureaucratic, which they believe has contributed to the party’s cash woes. The RNC had about $8 million at the end of December, only about one-third as much as the Democratic National Committee.

Under the new structure, the Trump campaign is looking to merge its operations with the RNC. Key departments, such as communications, data and fundraising, will effectively be one and the same.

Republicans just spent four hours broadcasting wall-to-wall, live TV coverage of Trump’s many criminal indictments and reminding everyone Biden was cleared. Brilliant as usual.

— Jim Messina (@Messina2012) March 12, 2024

Enter the Bucks County Beacon, in which a local paper gives us better, more truthful coverage than many national outlets are giving us on this story—all while crediting POLITICO with the original scoop.

Shocking Online Manifesto Reveals Project 2025’S Link To A Coordinated ‘Christian Nationalism Project’

“The Statement on Christian Nationalism” seeks to implement a Scripture-based system of government whereby Christ-ordained “civil magistrates” exercise authority over the American public.

Approximately 100 right-wing organizations have signed onto Project 2025, an expansive plan for controlling (and in some cases dismantling) federal agencies in the event that Trump or another Republican wins the presidential election this year. Many of these organizations are led by Christian fundamentalist political operatives, suggesting that they may use the plan to force all Americans to submit to their extreme religious beliefs.

The Bucks County Beacon has just found explosive new evidence that seems to validate this concern.

The Beacon’s discovery follows an earlier report by Politico journalist Heidi Przybyla, which tied the Center for Renewing America (CFRA), an official Project 2025 partner, to an internal memo expressly listing “Christian Nationalism” as a priority for a second Trump term.

if you're writing Biden off based on the early general election polls, you're making a very big analytical mistake https://t.co/epMFilrp2f

— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) March 12, 2024

Cliff Schecter on Trump’s treatment of Nikki Haley voters:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A not so Super Tuesday, and a November election for the amnesiacs

New York Times:

Do Americans Have a ‘Collective Amnesia’ About Donald Trump?

It’s only been three years, but memories of Mr. Trump’s presidency have faded and changed fast.

But as Mr. Trump pursues a return to power, the question of what exactly voters remember has rarely been more important. While Mr. Trump is staking his campaign on a nostalgia for a time not so long ago, Mr. Biden’s campaign is counting on voters to refocus on Mr. Trump, hoping they will recall why they denied him a second term.

“Remember how you felt the day after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016,” the Biden campaign wrote in a fund-raising appeal last month. “Remember walking around in disbelief and fear of what was to come.”

Early still, but "Project 2025 isn't real" is my Take of the Day candidate. https://t.co/wLt5HL9Kbm pic.twitter.com/SszW8HZYa1

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) March 5, 2024

CNBC:

Trump-allied election groups burned through millions with no evidence of widespread fraud

KEY POINTS
  • Groups allied with Donald Trump have been struggling with their finances, according to tax records.
  • Officials have debunked Donald Trump’s conspiracy that the 2020 election was stolen or there was widespread voter fraud.
  • Another problem that has plagued some of the groups is they didn’t receive any fundraising help from Trump himself.

Primary results @GOP #SuperTuesday@NikkiHaley percentages: VT 47% CO 40% MA 36% VA 33% ME 25% AR 24% NC 23% TX 19% Seems many GOP voters don't want Trump? Recall Haley got 43% in NH; 40% in SC; Trump lost 49% in Iowa https://t.co/j2OtEnHYfi

— Tim McBride (@mcbridetd) March 6, 2024

The above were 9 pm results, but the point still stands (Haley won Vermont). Some but not all of those Haley voters were Democrats. More were independents. Many Republicans chose not to vote for Trump even though he cleaned up in both delegates and vote percentage. And no one fully understands what that means for fall. Still, Haley is out.

Nikki Haley will suspend her presidential campaign and leave Donald Trump as the last major Republican candidate https://t.co/qtG4wSSZq0 via @sppeople & @MegKinnardAP

— Chad Livengood (@ChadLivengood) March 6, 2024

Super Tuesday exit poll data from CBS:

Party ID of Haley voters and Trump voters?

As in previous contests, much of Haley's support comes from voters who are not Republican. In Virginia,  this is particularly striking. Republicans make up just a third of those voting for her in that state.

In Virginia, about a quarter of Haley's supporters are Democrats.

In North Carolina, most of her supporters are independents.

Molly Jong-Fast/MSNBC:

Trump's Super Tuesday 'win' comes at a cost

Nikki Haley wants to harness the "never Trump" vote. Can she help make one of Team Trump's worst fears come true?

Despite never having a chance at winning, Haley’s quest quickly became quixotic, exposing cracks in Trump’s election strategy and structure. After all, Trump has always run on appealing to the GOP base’s basest nature. He won by shifting the electorate, getting traditionally low-turnout voters to vote for him. If that base’s enthusiasm falters even a little bit, that alone could be enough for Biden to hold on to the presidency.

Haley showed us that there are real fractures not only in Trump’s strategy, but in the GOP primary base. Per The Associated Press, "According to AP VoteCast surveys of the first three head-to-head Republican contests, 2 in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him in the fall." Now that he has 91 criminal counts against him and is heading into a criminal trial in March, it seems even more unlikely that the “never Trump” contingent will change their minds in November.

.

The complaining around Schiff’s strategy betrayed a fundamental misreading of normie Democrats, who *want* to focus attacks on Republicans, and not have a months-long intra-party feud. pic.twitter.com/HvQBnsbbXU

— Bill Scher (@billscher) March 6, 2024

Meanwhile Joe Biden also romped. Not much drama. Hey, did you know for the most part Biden outperformed Obama in 2012?

Arizona Republic:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema won't seek reelection, ending chances of a 3-way Arizona Senate race

Ending more than a year of speculation about her future, U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema said Tuesday she won’t seek reelection because extremism in both major parties makes it impossible to tackle the nation’s needs.

In a video message on social media, Sinema, I-Ariz., rattled off what she views as a successful legislative record and lamented that “Americans still choose to retreat further to their partisan corners.”

"It’s all or nothing. The outcome is less important than beating the other guy,” she said. “The only political victories that matter these days are symbolic. … Compromise is a dirty word. We’ve arrived at that crossroad and we chose anger and division. I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

She did herself in by fighting for tax cuts, alienating Democrats along the way. Matt Fuller/X via Threadreader put together a good summary of her saga:

I can’t tell you exactly why Kyrsten Sinema is leaving Congress. But I can tell you that @sambrodey’s coverage of her was genuinely exceptional and some of the most revealing reporting about Sinema or any other politician. Small thread: 
In Oct. 2021, Sam reported on how Sinema’s bizarre transformation into a centrist troll had burned some of her personal friendships.

Yes. Sinema wasn’t beaten. She lost it. https://t.co/dBJQeSboFC

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) March 6, 2024

David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:

The Biden Administration’s Going All-In on Its Push for a Gaza Ceasefire

Vice President Harris’ meeting with Netanyahu’s rival—and her passionate words on behalf of Palestinians—are just a couple ways the White House is trying to halt the fighting.

You could hear the urgency in the vice president’s remarks when she passionately addressed the plight of the people of Palestine both on Sunday when she spoke in Selma, Alabama, and on Monday after she met with Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz—who also happens to be Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s primary domestic political rival, and who made the visit to D.C. despite protests from Netanyahu.

Alon Pinkas/Haaretz:

The U.S. Finally Realized: Netanyahu Broke an Unbreakable Alliance

Over 15 years, through hubris and rudeness, Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to turn Israel from an ally into a high-maintenance, ongoing crisis whose actions are inconsistent with U.S. interests in the Middle East

Gantz's meetings with Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and lawmakers in Congress are not ordinary meetings. They are meetings reserved for a prime minister, or someone they think will or should be premier.

More than anything, they are meant to rile Netanyahu – the self-ordained ultimate maven on U.S. affairs whom the Americans have concluded is a liability, not an ally.

Thanks @FoxNews! pic.twitter.com/nHz7u5hkpa

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 6, 2024

Cliff Schecter on Hunter Biden and impeachment:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: It’s still primary season and not general election season

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Rick Hasen/Election Law Blog:

Supreme Court Decision in Trump Colorado Disenfranchisement Case Almost Certainly Being Released Monday at 10 am ET (So It’s Technically Out Before Super Tuesday and Colorado Voting) and It Will Not Let Colorado Disqualify Trump

Opinion releases usually happen when the Justices physically take the bench in Court, and the next opportunity for that which was listed on the Supreme Court website was March 15.

But the Court just changed its website to indicate that one or more opinions is going to be posted on the Supreme Court website at 10 am ET Monday morning. And the Justices won’t be taking the bench to do it.

While they want to get it out before Tuesday, early voting in Colorado has already started.

Greg Sargent/The New Republic:

Liz Cheney Nukes the Supreme Court Over Trump Delay—and Hands Dems a Weapon

What percentage of voters know that Trump can cancel prosecutions of himself if he wins back the White House?

The court’s decision is terrible news, to be sure, but it gives Democrats an opportunity to clarify a few crucial points, and they should seize it.

First, Democrats should stress that voters need to know before the election whether Trump committed crimes—and this is due to them as a matter of right. Second, Trump is seeking these delays to end all prosecutions of himself if he regains the White House—to corruptly place himself above the law by pardoning himself or having his handpicked lickspittle attorney general do it. Democrats must say clearly that if the court helps delay the trial until after the election, it will be enabling him to do that.

Rep. Tony Gonzales on if Rs are squandering their majority: "Here we are fighting with each other over X, Y and Z. You think China is doing that?" Joe Manchin: "This 118th Congress, I"m ashamed to end my career in the absolute worst performing Congress in the history" of the US pic.twitter.com/VJgvpC0KhV

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 3, 2024

The Hill:

Haley takes the victory in DC GOP primary

Nikki Haley will win the Washington, D.C., Republican presidential primary, netting her first victory of the GOP nominating process, Decision Desk HQ projects.

The win for the former United Nations ambassador breaks a streak of more than a half dozen victories for former President Trump to start out the GOP contests for the nomination. It’s a much-needed triumph for Haley to show she can top Trump somewhere, but she still has a long road ahead of her.

She has pledged to stay in the race at least through Super Tuesday this week, when more than a dozen states will vote. But she was not able to win any of the early-voting states in January and February, and no upcoming state obviously jumps out as a clear opportunity for her to win.

Still, the win in the winner-take-all D.C. primary will give her all of its 19 delegates. Voting in the District took place across three days from Friday to Sunday.

This will only add to Trump’s instability. It won’t really help Haley win. 

Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:

Some Quick Thoughts on that Bad NYT Poll

Another NYT/Siena poll shows Trump leading, panic ensues

Hey Dan, You Got Any Good News?

Sure. Here are some positive points for you:

  • President Biden’s path to winning this race is pretty simple (on paper) — win back people who have voted for him in the past, vote for Democrats in other elections, and share ideological alignment with Democrats on issues such as abortion and climate change. We don’t have to convince a single Trump 2020 voter to win.

  • There are fissures to exploit in Trump’s coalition. Even though Trump has locked up the Republican nomination, Nikki Haley is still getting 20% of the Republican primary vote. Each and every one of these Haley voters is a persuasion target for Democrats.

  • Biden is dramatically overperforming with senior citizens. He leads Trump by 6 points in this poll which, as pollster John Della Volpe points out, is an 11 point improvement over 2020.

  • 53% of voters think Trump committed serious Federal crimes and one in five of those voters still plan to vote for Trump — that’s another group of people we might be able to move back into our column.

  • 19% of voters disapprove of both Biden and Trump. These are the so-called “double-haters” Biden is currently winning those voters 45-33. In 2020, he won them overwhelmingly, so there is obvious room to grow.

None of this easy. There are no silver bullets, and nothing will change the race overnight. As indicated by this and numerous other polls, it’s evident that the President is encountering substantial challenges. However, as I previously emphasized, I firmly believe that Joe Biden has the potential to secure victory in this election.

Weary of another round of Biden age chatter? I discuss the paradoxes of class in 2024: Biden’s program is lifting up the working class but Trump will be done in by his weakness with the college educated. Key: the anti-Dobbs, anti-vulgarity vote Free access https://t.co/dYnSBJebx2

— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) March 3, 2024

Tyler Pager/Washington Post:

The private chats and chance encounters that shape Joe Biden’s thinking

After conversations with his grandchildren, fellow churchgoers and Delaware neighbors, the president brings their worries to the Oval Office

As president of the United States, Biden has access to practically unlimited information. He receives a daily classified briefing from the world’s most powerful intelligence apparatus. He can mobilize the vast machinery of the U.S. government to deliver data on various topics. He can convene meetings with world leaders, Cabinet officials or experts in any field — and often does.

But to a remarkable degree, Biden relies on direct personal interaction for information: catch-up chats with his children and grandchildren; talks with fellow parishioners after Mass; exchanges with workers on his property in Wilmington, Del; spontaneous calls to former colleagues. From consumer prices to masking guidelines to loneliness, the president brings their worries to the Oval Office.

Interesting piece on who Biden talks to, especially given the bubble built around every White House. 

“I’m the only one who has ever beat him. And I’ll beat him again.” “If you thought you were best positioned to beat someone who, if they won, would change the nature of America, what would you do?” https://t.co/vp5XsDGlzX

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) March 4, 2024

Evan Osnos/The New Yorker:

Joe Biden’s Last Campaign

Trailing Trump in polls and facing doubts about his age, the President voices defiant confidence in his prospects for reëlection.
Back in the Oval Office, where winter sun shone through glass doors, I asked Biden if it was possible for him to reach voters who had those beliefs. He treated the question as a provocation: “Well, first of all, remember, in 2020, you guys told me how I wasn’t going to win? And then you told me in 2022 how it was going to be this red wave?” He flashed a tense smile. “And I told you there wasn’t going to be any red wave. And in 2023 you told me we’re going to get our ass kicked again? And we won every contested race out there.” He let that sink in for an instant and said, “In 2024, I think you’re going to see the same thing.”

Against the will of Netanyahu, @gantzbe is about to visit Washington for meetings with @VP Harris and NSC adviser Jake Sullivan. Bibi has ordered Israel’s ambassador to boycott the meetings. I wager @POTUS will drop by; might even invite Gantz into the Oval Office. Gantz is a…

— Martin Indyk (@Martin_Indyk) March 3, 2024

Will Bunch/Philadelphia Inquirer:

Mitch McConnell is the arsonist who set America on fire and ran away

A corrupt Supreme Court, looming dictatorship and a "Handmaid's Tale" society is the America Mitch McConnell created and runs away from.

You gotta hand it to Mitch McConnell, the GOP’s 82-year-old Senate minority leader who arguably has done more to bend, staple and mutilate America in the 21st century than anyone else. He did so with zero charm or charisma, in the slow, ageless and ultimately inscrutable manner of the giant Galapagos turtle he so weirdly resembles.

But last Wednesday, the ancient gambler of the Senate looked carefully at his final hand. He knew when to run.

Alexander Bolton/The Hill:

GOP senators face Trump civil war with McConnell retiring

The race to replace Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is laying bare the power struggle between pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republicans in the Senate.

GOP lawmakers aligned closely with the former president are urging any candidate wanting to succeed McConnell to embrace Trump. Other Republican senators want McConnell’s successor to keep a healthy distance from the controversial former president.

Cliff Schecter notes that Steve bannon is going after Rupert Murdoch:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Mr. Gantz goes to Washington

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

We begin today with Itamar Eichner of Ynet News who was the first to report that Minister without portfolio and Knesset opposition leader Benny Gantz will be traveling the United States today for high-level talks about the situation in Gaza; apparently without the initial approval of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This visit comes at a time when efforts to secure a hostage exchange deal have been ongoing for quite some time, and amidst reports in the U.S. that the American government is losing patience with Netanyahu's conduct in the war - and allegations that he is being restrained by his government partners Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The Prime Minister's Office expressed anger at the publication of Ynet and clarified that Gantz is flying without the Prime Minister's approval, contrary to the government regulations, which "require every minister to coordinate his trip in advance with the Prime Minister, including approval of the travel plan."

According to Netanyahu's associates, "the Prime Minister clarified to Minister Gantz that the State of Israel has only one Prime Minister." From Washington, Gantz is expected to continue to London.
Earlier this week, President Joe Biden emphasized that Israel must pursue peace with the Palestinians for its long-term survival. He cautioned that the country's "incredibly conservative government" risked losing international support, during an appearance on “Late Night with Seth Meyers.”

Trevor Hunnicutt of Reuters reports that among the officials that Minister Gantz will meet with are Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and members from both parties of Congress.

The talks, first reported by Reuters, are expected to span topics including reducing Palestinian civilian casualties, securing a temporary ceasefire, the release of hostages held in Gaza and increasing aid to the territory, a White House official said.

"The Vice President will express her concern over the safety of the as many as 1.5 million people in Rafah," the official said, adding that Israel also had a "right to defend itself in the face of continued Hamas terrorist threats."

A statement from Gantz confirmed that he would meet with Harris, as well as with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Republican and Democratic members of U.S. Congress.
"Minister Gantz personally updated the prime minister on his own initiative on Friday of his intention to travel, in order to coordinate the messages to be transmitted in the meetings," the statement said.

Yasmin Rufo and David Gritten of BBC News write about petitions to the Israeli and Egyptian governments by journalists and news organizations for international journalists to have access to Gaza.

Only one foreign journalist has been granted entry into Gaza through Egypt on an escorted visit. CNN's Clarissa Ward - who is among the signatories of the letter - was able to spend only a few hours on the ground in the southern border city of Rafah with an Emirati medical team in December.

The letter calls on Israel's government to "openly state its permission for international journalists to operate in Gaza".

It also asks Egyptian authorities to allow foreign press access to the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza.

[...]

The broadcasters represented in the letter are the UK's BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Sky News, and the US outlets ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC.

A number of journalists who signed the letter have been reporting from Israel during the conflict.

As I have said, while I have some sympathy for the Gazan journalists already operating at great risk to their lives and the lives of their loved ones, I am under no illusion that those Gazan journalists have operated independently of the influence of Hamas.

Nor do I entirely trust the reporting of the number of Western journalists embedded with the IDF; after all, the IDF will show those journalists what they want seen and reported.

Most of the international journalists there have reported on conflicts and wars before. Allowing them freedom to report on the war without “embedding” may also serve to better protect those Palestinian journalist who have been losing their lives.

Turning to domestic matters, Super Tuesday is coming up and with the presidential primaries all but wrapped up, I’ll focus on downballot items beginning with High Point University’s poll showing a substantial lead for candidates in both the Republican and Democratic primaries for governor of North Carolina.

In the Democratic primary for governor of North Carolina, Josh Stein has support of 57% of the vote among likely and self-reported Democratic primary voters. He is followed by Michael R. Morgan (14%), Gary Foxx (10%), Chrelle Booker (10%) and Marcus Williams (9%).

In the Republican primary for governor, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson has 51% support among these likely and self-reported Republican primary voters. Bill Graham and Dale Folwell have less support with these voters, receiving 33% and 17% of the vote, respectively. [...]

There is no clear front-runner in the Democratic primary for attorney general of North Carolina. Democratic likely and self-reported primary voters appear to be split between Jeff Jackson (36%), Tim Dunn (33%) and Satana Deberry (31%).

Avi Bajpai of the Charlotte Observer reports that a Republican Super PAC appears to be funding a Democratic candidate for North Carolina Attorney General.

A mysterious new super PAC that has spent close to a million dollars promoting Satana Deberry in the Democratic primary for state attorney general is being funded by the Republican Attorneys General Association, new election filings show.

The group, And Justice For All, started buying TV, radio and digital ads last month in support of Deberry, the Durham County District Attorney who is running against U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson of Charlotte and Fayetteville attorney Tim Dunn in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

Details initially available about the super PAC’s expenditures, such as the bank and media buyer it was using, showed ties to groups typically used by Republicans. But not much else was known about the group or who was behind it. [...]

As of Feb. 29, the group had spent more than $950,000 on TV and radio ads, digital ads, mailers, and text messages in support of Deberry.

The ads promote Deberry’s liberal record and suggest she’s the “real progressive” in the race, according to Charlotte radio station WFAE.

Francine Kiefer of The Christian Science Monitor says that it looks like a ballot initiative to link California’s mental health systems with its affordable housing systems appears likely to win the support of a majority of California voters.

As states across America grapple with the twin challenges of rising homelessness and mental illness, California’s counties are clamoring for more places like ASC. But there aren’t enough of them. Neither is there enough affordable housing in this expensive state. Despite billions spent in recent years, homelessness has increased, and many unhoused people struggle with mental illness and addiction. All of this has rolled into a perfect storm impacting public health and safety, businesses, and quality of life – making homelessness a top concern for California voters.

Politicians, not surprisingly, are under tremendous pressure to do something. Their latest effort, Proposition 1, which will be on the March 5 ballot, would overhaul the state’s mental health system to firmly link it to housing. For the first time, counties would be required to spend behavioral health dollars on housing for homeless people with mental illness and addictions. Proposition 1 also includes a $6.4 billion state bond to secure supportive housing and treatment places for homeless people, with $1 billion for veterans. Gov. Gavin Newsom dubs it “treatment, not tents.”

The measure has its critics. One main objection is that more county behavioral health dollars for housing means fewer for mental health services. While the ballot measure promises more than 11,000 places for treatment and living, the independent state legislative analyst says the new measure would reduce statewide homelessness “by only a small amount.” Yet the legislation behind the measure passed with near unanimity in Sacramento last year. Opinion polling shows nearly two-thirds of likely voters support it.

Christopher Hooks of Texas Monthly takes a look at the struggle of Texas state House Speaker Dade Phelan to win his primary in spite of the endorsement of former governor Rick Perry as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton seeks revenge on those who chose to impeach him last year.

On February 16, money has come calling to the Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Nederland, south of Beaumont, where Speaker Dade Phelan is holding a campaign rally. It is the week before the start of early voting in the Republican Primary. Phelan is suffering through an unprecedentedly brutal bid to be reelected Speaker. He faces two candidates in this first round to retain his seat, the most formidable being David Covey, a right-wing Christian conservative and the former chair of the Republican party of Orange County, which straddles the Louisiana state line near Beaumont. (The third candidate, Alicia Davis, a hairdresser from Jasper, has not been showered in attention and resources like Covey has.) The most powerful Republicans in the state have either endorsed Covey or are staying out of the race altogether. Phelan hopes to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff and smooth the way to his next Speaker vote. [...]

Ever since the state’s founding, the political religion of the state has been economic development. Southeast Texas is littered with its temples. On the night of the rally, moonlight illuminates clouds of water vapor and other emissions rising from petroleum refineries in the distance. The Port Arthur Canal snakes around the airport, which has just one daily flight left, an American Eagle shuttle to Dallas–Fort Worth. The namesake of the airport, Jack Brooks, represented the area in Congress for 42 years as a conservative Democrat—as Perry was once. In his day, politicians gained power to help their constituents. In 1994, in a sign of changing times, Brooks lost the general election to Republican Steve Stockman, a right-wing ideologue who spoke the new vernacular of talk radio and was later convicted of felony money laundering.

Nothing to do with Democratic Party politics, of course, but given the surprise impeachment of Paxton last summer, I was curious.

Anita Hofschneider of the climate blog Grist reports that a federal study shows climate change may lead to the exposure of nuclear waste in some parts of the world. 

A federal report by the Government Accountability Office published last month examines what’s left of that nuclear contamination, not only in the Pacific but also in Greenland and Spain. The authors conclude that climate change could disturb nuclear waste left in Greenland and the Marshall Islands. “Rising sea levels could spread contamination in RMI, and conflicting risk assessments cause residents to distrust radiological information from the U.S. Department of Energy,” the report says.

In Greenland, chemical pollution and radioactive liquid are frozen in ice sheets, left over from a nuclear power plant on a U.S. military research base where scientists studied the potential to install nuclear missiles. The report didn’t specify how or where nuclear contamination could migrate in the Pacific or Greenland, or what if any health risks that might pose to people living nearby. However, the authors did note that in Greenland, frozen waste could be exposed by 2100.

[...]

The authors of the GAO study wrote that Greenland and Denmark haven’t proposed any cleanup plans, but also cited studies that say much of the nuclear waste has already decayed and will be diluted by melting ice. However, those studies do note that chemical waste such as polychlorinated biphenyls, man-made chemicals better known as PCBs that are carcinogenic, “may be the most consequential waste at Camp Century.”

Carmen Morán Breña of El País in English writes about the just-finished Mexican Open tennis tournament which took place in Acapulco. It’s was the city’s first major event since Hurricane Otis devastated the town this past October.

People say that crises bring opportunities. Many imagined a new-look Acapulco following the devastation of Hurricane Otis, an apocalypse that would usher in peace through the reconstruction of the city, or so the most optimistic people thought. However, the calm has not followed the storm, at least not yet. During these days, in which the battered pearl of the Pacific is staging the Mexican Tennis Open as a symbol of the yearned-for normality, all is still not well in the region. There are still long queues in supermarkets to exchange the vouchers issued by the government for food before they expire and many of those affected are waiting to be censused to receive the expected aid. Violence has resulted in various deaths in the last week alone, with the customary scenario of bodies shot to death or severed heads accompanied by narco-messages. Public and private transportation has ceased to operate on several occasions in protest against the attacks perpetrated by organized criminal groups. In the meantime, the governors have hailed the big Latin American tennis event with grandiose phrases: “The port lives, shines and will shine stronger than ever. We want a new Acapulco,” recently exclaimed the governor, Evelyn Salgado.

Hoteliers still estimate that it will take two years before they can run at full capacity, given the extent of the destruction caused by the hurricane that swept in from the sea in the early hours of October 26. Health officials are working tirelessly to bring to an end as soon as possible the dengue epidemic that caused the collapse of the health services. Acapulco is still struggling to get back on its feet, which is why the tennis tournament, hosted in the city since 2001, represents two sides of the coin. On the one hand, it is an opportunity to stimulate tourism and employment. On the other, it is evidence that basic needs and outbreaks of violence cannot be camouflaged with a sporting showcase. [...]

Perhaps nothing can stop crime. People thought at first, the hurricane that devastated the city would drive the corrupt narcos out of Acapulco and the community could rebuild itself with other social parameters. But this was not the case. The assassinations have been ongoing and there are many who believe that the economic gains from the reconstruction will provide a lifeline for the gang members and their diverse circle, which sometimes involves politics and the business sector. The crisis of violence in the transport sector certainly includes some of this. “We thought that with Otis’ battering they would have no one to extort money from, all the businesses closed, but they have targeted the transport sector,” says the journalist Muñoz Cano. Indeed, the mafias that fight over transportation have triggered numerous crises in Acapulco and the whole state of Guerrero, causing deaths and placing the state government in a complex situation. Burned taxis, murdered drivers. The state responds to each crisis by pledging to provide more police to reinforce the routes, but nothing can deter crime.

Finally today, Gary Younge writes for The New York Review of Books (paywalled $$$) about the rise and (continuing) fall of the British Empire.

Britain’s diminished status has been anticipated for some time. It was, to my mind, best captured by the broadcaster Peter Jennings on New Year’s Eve 2000 as he watched an impressive fireworks display cascade over the River Thames:

It’s something of a reminder for those people who pay attention to history that in 1900, when Queen Victoria was on the throne, she presided over the largest empire in history. Four hundred million people, one fifth the earth’s surface…. And now as we come to the end of the century, for all this fantastic show that they’ve put on…Britain’s possessions have dwindled…but the Falkland Islands are still British.

Britain’s decline is relative, of course (its economy remains the sixth largest in the world), but it is real (it was fifth until the end of 2021, when India, its erstwhile colony, overtook it). Decades ago this diminishment was understood to be gradual and generational. After the Suez Crisis in 1956, there was an attempt to retreat to this smaller position in an orderly manner. I’m fifty-five, and my generation’s parents grew up in a virtually monoracial country, reliant on heavy industry, with the globe colored pink to mark British territories. I was raised to learn the metric system, the names of new countries—Zimbabwe, Benin, Burkina Faso—in a nation that saw itself as the stable conduit between Europe and America, with postcolonial ties across the globe. My children’s cohort has adjusted to an economy in which Indian restaurants employ more people than steel, coal, and shipbuilding all put together, and membership in the EU is a fact of history. [...]

What has happened to Britain? For all its faults, the British ruling class used to take itself seriously—if anything, too seriously. No one would accuse it of doing that now. The deluded act of self-harm otherwise known as Brexit was the most glaring example: for momentary electoral gain and an internal party truce, former prime minister David Cameron asked the country a question to which he did not want to know the answer and then resigned when they got it “wrong.” A nation that insisted on an aggressive, isolating version of its own sovereignty has spent the past eight years struggling to figure out what to do with it. But Brexit also acted as a sifting mechanism, elevating the least serious to the top.

I mostly remember watching MSNBC on New Year’s Eve 1999 but I recall ABC’s Peter Jennings’s talking a lot about clocks. New Year’s Eve 2000 in London was by far the best fireworks display of the night...and of course, Big Ben going off at the turn of the millennium did make it seem as though it was a New Year even though it still remained seven hours away here in Chicago.

And, of course, there was this stunner on New Year’s Eve 1999. And yes, there was a slight concern about those Russian missiles.

Try to have the best possible day everyone!