Playing a starring role in Tuesday’s primaries: Darth Vader

Voters across four states pick their candidates Tuesday for downballot offices, including in multiple House races where incumbents are in danger of losing, in one of the biggest primary nights of the year. Donald Trump is doing his part to make this night eventful by endorsing 12 candidates in eight competitive races—yes, you read that right. 

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top primaries to watch, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for four states: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states. 

We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting at 8 PM ET, when polls close in Missouri as well as in most of Kansas and Michigan. Join us for our complete coverage! 

Kansas

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time in the portion of the state located in the Central time zone, where virtually all Kansans live, and an hour later in four sparsely populated counties along the state's western border with Colorado. Individual counties have the option to keep their polls open an extra hour.

• KS-02 (R) (57-41 Trump): Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner surprised just about everyone in April when he announced his retirement from Congress at the ripe age of 36, but a familiar name quickly emerged as the favorite to replace him. Former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, despite his narrow loss to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in 2022, retains plenty of name recognition and establishment support, and he picked up Trump's endorsement late in the contest. 

A few other Republicans, however, are hoping Schmidt isn't as strong as he looks in this constituency, which includes the state capital of Topeka, Kansas City, and parts of eastern Kansas. Businessman Shawn Tiffany is airing ads unsubtly attacking the former attorney general's record as a "smelly pile of Schmidt," while former LaTurner staffer Jeff Kahrs also hopes to succeed his old boss.

• Johnson County Sheriff (R) (53-45 Biden): Sheriff Calvin Hayden, who has spent the last few years spreading election conspiracy theories, faces a Republican primary challenge from former undersheriff Doug Bedford in Kansas' largest county. 

Bedford, who has expressed faith that votes are being counted fairly, is arguing that the incumbent is wasting taxpayer money on his quest. The challenger has the support of former Sheriff Frank Denning, who has declared that Bedford's win is essential to restoring faith in the office.

The winner will take on Prairie Village Police Chief Byron Roberson, a Democrat who was the first Black person to lead a police department in the county. Johnson County, which is based in the Kansas City suburbs, is a longtime GOP bastion that backed only Republican presidential candidates for the 100 years before Joe Biden's historic 2020 win there. Roberson has cited this, as well as his party's continuing success in the county, to make his case that he can defeat either Republican. 

Michigan

Polls close at 8 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where almost all Michiganders live, and an hour later in four small counties in the Upper Peninsula along the state's western border with Wisconsin.

• MI-Sen (D & R) (51-48 Biden): Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are preparing to face off in a competitive race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but they each have to dispatch a notable intraparty opponent first. 

Slotkin's foe is Hill Harper, an actor who is best known for his role on "The Good Doctor." Harper, though, has not been a good fundraiser, and he hasn't benefited from any major outside spending. 

Rogers' opponent is former Rep. Justin Amash, who over the past few years has switched his party affiliation from Republican to independent to Libertarian before ultimately rejoining the GOP. Trump and Senate Republicans are supporting Rogers over Amash, who voted to impeach Trump in 2019 and hasn't brought in much money for his new campaign.

• MI-08 (D & R) (50-48 Biden): Both parties have contested primaries to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in this swing seat, which is based in the Flint and Tri-Cities areas, but this is another race where there's a front-runner for each side.

The Democratic favorite is state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has the support of Kildee, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and the DCCC. Her main rival appears to be businessman Matt Collier, an Army veteran who was elected mayor of Flint in 1987 but lost reelection four years later. State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is also in, but she's struggled to bring in money to run a serious effort. A late June poll for a pro-Collier group showed McDonald Rivet leading him 32-19, and we haven't seen any data since then.

The Republican's main candidate is Paul Junge, a former Trump administration official who picked up his old boss' endorsement in late July. Junge, though, has run for the House twice already without success: In 2020 he lost to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin 51-47 in the old 8th District, while he fell to Kildee 53-43 two years later, following redistricting. (Despite sharing a number, the two incarnations of the 8th District don't include any of the same territory.)

Republicans looking for an alternative to Junge, whom Kildee successfully attacked as an outsider, got some welcome news in April when retired Dow Chemical Company executive Mary Draves launched her own campaign. Junge, though, has used his personal wealth to finance ads attacking Draves for serving on Whitmer's Council on Climate Solutions and for donating to McDonald Rivet's own political action committee. Junge has released several surveys showing him easily beating Draves, and his opponent has not publicized any polls showing her in better shape. 

• MI-10 (D) (50-49 Trump): Four Democrats are on the ballot to take on freshman Republican Rep. John James in this competitive seat based in Macomb County, though none of them have raised much money to flip this suburban Detroit seat.

The most familiar name on the ballot is former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, a longtime local politician who held James to an unexpectedly tight 49-48 victory in 2022 despite receiving little outside help. But while Marlinga is arguing that close shave proves he can win, gun safety activist Emily Busch is arguing he's failed on abortion rights. The field also includes financial adviser Diane Young and state Board of Education member Tiffany Tilley. 

• MI-13 (D) (74-25 Biden): Freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar faces Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters in a volatile primary where the challenger is hoping her long service in local politics will help her overcome a truly staggering financial disadvantage.

Thanedar two years ago narrowly beat former state Sen. Adam Hollier for the Democratic primary, and his subsequent election meant that, for the first time since the 1950s, heavily Black Detroit did not have an African American member of Congress. (Thanedar is Indian American, while Detroit's other representative, Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.) 

Hollier launched a rematch campaign last year against the new congressman, whom Tlaib accused of being "absent from doing his job," but the race took a shocking turn this spring when Hollier failed to submit enough signatures to make the ballot. Waters, who had been running an underfunded campaign, immediately became Thanedar's main opponent, and she picked up the support of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. 

But while Waters, who is Black, is arguing that the Motor City once again needs a Black member of Congress, she still has little money to get that message out against the wealthy Thanedar. A pair of super PACs, including the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, have also spent over $3 million to sink Waters. Some of this spending has gone to promote a third candidate, Shakira Hawkins, in what appears to be an effort to split the anti-Thanedar vote. 

Missouri

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

• MO-Gov (R & D) (57-41 Trump): Gov. Mike Parson is termed out of office, and three prominent fellows Republicans are competing in an expensive and nasty race to replace him: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, and state Sen. Bill Eigel. A pair of polls conducted in late July for the nonpartisan political tipsheet Missouri Scout showed Ashcroft and Kehoe tied, with Eigel 9 to 11 percentage points behind them. 

Trump, who since late July has made it a habit to endorse multiple candidates for the same office, has thrown his support behind all three of them. This has allowed each member of this trio to run ads proclaiming that they're "endorsed by Trump," though they haven't been in a hurry to share that their rivals also have that distinction.

Ashcroft spent months as the favorite for the job that his father and namesake, John Ashcroft, held before becoming a U.S. senator and later George W. Bush's first attorney general. But while the younger Ashcroft attracted attention last year for, among other things, unsuccessfully using the power of his office to sabotage a series of proposed abortion-rights amendments, he's struggled to bring in money throughout the campaign. He got some welcome news late in the campaign, however, when a little-known super PAC deployed millions to aid him.

Fundraising has not been a problem for Kehoe, who has decisively outspent his rivals. The lieutenant governor has spent months attacking Ashcroft, though he's also focused on making sure Eigel doesn't emerge unscathed. But while the lieutenant governor is an ardent conservative who has Parson's endorsement, he's acknowledged he's not a "flame-thrower, or somebody who throws hand grenades."

That's a not-so-subtle knock on Eigel, who generated national attention last year when he deployed a flamethrower at an event and later said he'd use it to immolate books "on the front lawn of the governor's mansion." Eigel, who belongs to his state's branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, has a horrible relationship with his chamber's leaders, whom he's compared to Darth Vader. ("[W]e're not Darth Vader," protested Senate Majority Leader Cindy O'Laughlin.)

Things are considerably quieter on the Democratic side, though two contenders are hoping GOP infighting will give them an opening in what used to be a swing state. Those two candidates are state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade and businessman Mike Hamra, whose company operates almost 200 restaurants nationwide.

• MO-01 (D) (78-20 Biden): Two-term Rep. Cori Bush is trying to turn back a well-funded challenge from St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell in what AdImpact says is the second-most expensive House primary in American history. Outside groups have spent over $12 million to defeat Bush in the St. Louis area, while her supporters have directed $3 million to help her. 

Most of this anti-Bush spending comes from AIPAC's United Democracy Project, which wants to defeat one of the most ardent critics of Israel's government, though other organizations like the crypto-aligned super PAC Fairshake are also running ads against her. The incumbent's main ally, by contrast, is the progressive group Justice Democrats.

Bush's detractors are utilizing a similar strategy to the one they successfully deployed against New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman this year in what remains the priciest House primary ever. Her opponents have taken her to task for voting against Biden administration priorities from the left, and they've accused her of taking credit for securing billions in federal aid from bills she didn't vote for. 

Those ads, however, have largely avoided attacking Bush over the ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into allegations that she misused campaign funds to pay her husband for security services. The story may be hurting the congresswoman in another way, however, as she's used her campaign account to pay for legal fees rather than to support her reelection effort.

Bush's side is fighting back by trying to argue that Bell's support from AIPAC, which receives much of its funding from Republican donors, is too close to the GOP. The congresswoman is also airing a commercial where the father and sister of Michael Brown accuse Bell of lying to them by going back on a pledge to charge Darren Wilson, the Ferguson police officer who killed their loved one in 2014.

The only recent poll we've seen was a late July survey for Bell's allies at Democratic Majority for Israel that showed him outpacing Bush 48-42. That survey showed little support for the other two candidates, former state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal and 2022 hopeful Ron Harshaw, though their presence could end up mattering in a tight contest.

• MO-03 (R) (62-36 Trump): While seven Republicans are on the ballot here, the primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in this central Missouri seat is essentially an expensive duel between two former state senators, Bob Onder and Kurt Schaefer. 

Trump has endorsed Onder, who was a member of the predecessor to the state legislature's Freedom Caucus. Luetkemeyer, though, is supporting his old ally Schaefer over Onder, whom the now-congressman defeated in a bitter 2008 race for the now-defunct 9th District. A mid-July poll released by Onder’s campaign gave him a 34-14 advantage over his intraparty rival, but Schaefer's hoping a well-financed offensive will help him change that. 

Schaefer has benefited from around $5 million in outside support, including from a group that has devoted itself to stopping hard-line candidates who could cause headaches for the House GOP leadership and from a super PAC partially funded by Luetkemeyer. (The outgoing congressman also is no fan of the national Freedom Caucus.) Pro-Onder outfits, including the far-right Club for Growth, have spent a smaller but still substantive $3 million to aid him.

• MO-AG (R) (57-41 Trump): The Republican primary for attorney general of Missouri is an expensive proxy battle between state party leaders and some of the party's most influential national donors. In one corner is incumbent Andrew Bailey, whom Gov. Mike Parson appointed after their fellow Republican, Eric Schmitt, was elected to the Senate in 2022. His opponent is Trump attorney Will Scharf, who is a protégé of powerful conservative Leonard Leo.

There's little policy difference between the two Republicans, who have both spread lies about the 2020 election and each has Trump's endorsement. Scharf, though, is arguing that the party needs an attorney general who isn't connected to what he's portrayed as a corrupt state government. Bailey, meanwhile, is highlighting how Scharf grew up in New York City and Florida and his 2007 arrest for serving alcohol to underage college students.

AdImpact reports that Scharf and his allies have outspent Bailey's side $9.7 million to $7 million on advertising. Every poll that's been released, however, has shown the attorney general ahead, including a late July survey for the Missouri Scout that gave him a 41-30 advantage.

• MO Ballot (57-41 Trump): The Missouri Supreme Court this spring declared that a new vote was required for a 2022 state constitutional amendment that empowered the state legislature to require Kansas City to spend at least 25% of its general revenue on its police because the original version included a flawed fiscal summary. But while this marked a legal victory for Kansas City, which is the only major city in America that doesn't have control over its own police force, it would still be a surprise if Amendment 4 failed two years after statewide voters approved it by a 63-37 margin.

Washington 

Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.

Washington’s top-two primary requires all candidates to compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. The two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 5 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in August by taking a majority of the vote.

• WA-Gov (58-38 Biden): While a grand total of 28 people are on the ballot to succeed Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, who is retiring after three terms in office, there's little question that the general election will be between Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert. 

Each man, though, still faces one notable intra-party foe. The State Republican Party is backing Semi Bird, a far-right Army veteran who was one of three Richland School Board members recalled last year for defying the state's COVID protocols and make it optional to wear masks in local public schools. Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet, who is one of the most prominent moderates in the legislature meanwhile, has benefited from some heavy outside spending on his behalf. Polls, though, show neither Bird not Mullet posing a threat to their respective parties' frontrunners. 

• WA-03 (51-47 Trump): Both parties have long anticipated a general election rematch between freshman Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and election conspiracy theorist Joe Kent two years after Gluesenkamp Perez's 50-49 upset helped Democrats win every House seat that touches the Pacific Ocean. Kent, though, first needs to get past another Republican, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, who is arguing, "He had his chance, he lost."

Lewallen's pitch, however, doesn't seem to be resonating with conservatives in southwestern Washington or nationally. A late June internal poll released by Kent’s campaign showed him beating her 34-6 for the second general election spot, with Gluesenkamp Perez at 38%. Trump went on to endorse Kent the following month.

• WA-04 (57-40 Trump): Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, faces two intraparty rivals in a chaotic race for this conservative seat in central Washington. Those opponents are former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, who unsuccessfully ran here in 2022, and Tiffany Smiley, who was the GOP’s nominee against Democratic Sen. Patty Murray that same year.

Sessler, until Saturday, was Trump's only endorsed candidate in this race. But while Sessler has accused Smiley of running only to help Newhouse, Trump announced over the weekend that he was also supporting her. Smiley, for her part, has run ads attacking both Newhouse's impeachment vote and calling Sessler a vegan who "wants to tax our beef," allegations Sessler has ardently denied.

It's possible that two of these three Republicans will advance because, unlike in 2022, there's no one candidate for the district's Democrats to consolidate behind. Instead, three other candidates are campaigning as Democrats, while a fourth will be listed on the ballot as a "MAGA Democrat." 

• WA-05 (54-44 Trump): Six Republicans and five Democrats are facing off in a packed race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in the Spokane area. 

The top fundraiser is Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, a former Republican state senator who came nowhere close to unseating Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell in 2012. His main rival appears to be state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber, who is the rare Republican who has the support of the Washington State Labor Council. (The AFL-CIO affiliate is also backing one of the Democrats, former Spokane County Democratic Party Chair Carmela Conroy.) 

The GOP field also includes former Trump administration official Brian Dansel, Spokane City Councilman Jonathan Bingle, and Rene' Holaday, a radio host who has called for turning the eastern part of the state into a separate theocracy—even if "bloodshed" is necessary.

In addition to Conroy, the Democratic side includes physician Bernadine Bank and businesswoman Ann Marie Danimus. While it would be difficult for any of these candidates to prevail in a seat this conservative, though it's possible one of them could secure one of the general election spots that might have otherwise gone to a Republican.

• WA-06 (57-40 Biden): Two prominent Democrats, Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz and state Sen. Emily Randall, are campaigning to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer in a seat based in the Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma. Republican state Sen. Drew MacEwen is also in, and while he's raised little money, he may be able to grab one of the general election slots.

Franz has Kilner's endorsement, and she's brought in more money than Randall. Randall, though, has the backing of Sen. Patty Murray and several labor groups, including ones that represent Franz's employees in state government. 

The state senator has also benefited from over $2 million in outside spending, while there's been no serious overlay for Franz. Much of the pro-Randall ads have come from the cryptocurrency-aligned Protect Progress, which has informed viewers that she "would make history as the first LGBTQ Latina in Congress."

• WA Commissioner of Public Lands (58-38 Biden): While Evergreen State Republicans don't hold a single statewide office, the state's top two primary rules give them a chance to flip the commissioner of public lands office well before the November general election.

Two Republicans and five Democrats are campaigning to replace Democrat Hilary Franz as the head of a post that, among other things, runs the state's Department of Natural Resources and handles Washington's wildfire-fighting efforts. The most prominent candidate in the race is former GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who lost renomination in 2022 after voting to impeach Donald Trump. The other Republican is Sue Kuehl Pederson, who lost to Franz 57-43 in 2020.

A late July poll for the Northwest Progressive Institute showed Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson respectively at 18% and 12% in a race where no Democrat has emerged as the party's front-runner. King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove was a distant third, with 6%, compared with 5% each for state Sen. Kevin Van De Wege and Redmond City Councilmember Jeralee Anderson. Two DNR officials, Patrick DePoe and Allen Lebovitz, clocked in with 4% and 3%.

Democrats are hoping that one candidate can surge ahead and stop Republicans from winning this post by default. If they fail, though, there is talk of progressives waging a write-in campaign to stop the general election from being only a choice between Herrera Beutler and Kuehl Pederson, though state law would bar any of the five current candidates from filling that role.  

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Michigan Republicans have a new Senate candidate. The NRSC already hates him

Former Rep. Peter Meijer announced Monday that he'd seek the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but both the NRSC and Michigan Republican Party responded to the news by expressing utter contempt for their new candidate.

"Peter Meijer isn't viable in a primary election," declared NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman, "and there's worry that if Meijer were nominated, the base would not be enthused in the general election." Meijer, who was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, narrowly lost renomination last year to a Trump-backed foe, John Gibbs; Gibbs, in turn, badly lost the general election for the Grand Rapids-based 3rd District to Democrat Hillary Scholten.

While Republicans almost certainly would have been better off if Meijer, who first won office in 2020 by beating Scholten in a more conservative version of the 3rd, had prevailed against Gibbs, Thielman isn't the only one arguing he'd demoralize Republicans if he were to win the August primary. An unnamed Republican told Politico that internal polls showed Meijer considerably more popular with Democrats than with GOP voters, though no one has released any actual data to that effect.

And the NRSC's attacks don't come in a vacuum: The committee successfully recruited former Rep. Mike Rogers to run last month, and its chair, Steve Daines, praised him when he kicked off his campaign. But Rogers, too, has a history of criticizing Trump, so there may be something deeper to the NRSC's sharp words for Meijer.

In fact, both Politico and CNN report that the committee is also worried that Meijer's presence could make it easier for former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who has run as an ardent Trump ally, to win the GOP nod. Craig's hard-line views aren't the only reason that his intraparty critics want to stop him. He waged a disastrous bid for governor last cycle that culminated in him getting thrown off the primary ballot, and his new Senate campaign is picking up right where he left off: Craig took just 17 days to part ways with both his campaign manager and deputy manager.

The state GOP, which is led by election denier Kristina Karamo, also made it clear how much it despises Meijer with a tweet that went up immediately after the new candidate's launch. "Peter Meijer voted to impeach President Trump," the party's official account posted. "Remember that." However, the message was deleted just minutes later.

What replaced it was a statement declaring that the party "remains neutral and supportive of all Republican primary candidates." It continued, "Unfortunately, an over-zealous intern posted a negative comment regarding a candidate that does not reflect the position of MIGOP." Could it actually be that an intern of any level of zeal would have unfettered access to the state party's social media properties? As unlikely as that might seem, The Messenger's Matt Holt speculated that the near-bankrupt outfit might indeed be dependent on such labor.

Meijer, for his part, didn't mention Trump at all in a launch statement that argued he was the most electable Republican in the race. But the former one-term congressman, who is an Army veteran and heir to his family's eponymous supermarket chain, may already be trying to revise his anti-MAGA image.

Meijer submitted a court filing days before his announcement opposing a lawsuit arguing that Trump should be barred from the state ballot because the 14th Amendment disqualifies officeholders who have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion." Meijer sees things differently. "I filed an amicus brief today to support Mr. Trump being on the ballot," he said in a statement, "because our democracy relies on the ability of voters, not judges or partisan election officials, to determine their leaders." Rogers, who retired from Congress six years before Meijer's election, also has attacked Trump's critics in recent months.

There's been less drama on the Democratic side, where Rep. Elissa Slotkin holds a wide financial advantage over actor Hill Harper and the rest of the field. Harper, though, got some welcome news Monday when he received an endorsement from Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, who leads the most populous county in the state.

Click here to stop Republicans from snatching the Senate!

Republican Peter Meijer, who supported Trump’s impeachment, enters Michigan’s US Senate race

Peter Meijer, a Republican who served one term in Congress before being ousted by voters following a vote to impeach then-President Donald Trump, announced Monday that he will run for an open U.S. Senate seat in Michigan.

Meijer joins a field of more than a dozen candidates vying for a seat that’s been held by Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow for more than two decades. Stabenow shocked many in the state in January by announcing her retirement, creating a wide open race in the battleground state.

“My wife and I prayed hard about this race and how we can best serve our state and our nation. We considered every aspect of the campaign, and are confident we have the best chance of taking back this seat for the Republicans and fighting hard for a conservative future,” Meijer said in a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“We are in dark and uncertain times, but we have made it through worse. The challenges are great, but so is our country. If we are to see another great American century, we need leaders who aren’t afraid to be bold, will do the work, and can’t be bought.”

Meijer is an heir to a Midwestern grocery store empire. His name recognition and fundraising ability instantly make him a top candidate in one of the nation’s most competitive Senate races. He joins former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers and former Detroit Police Chief James Craig in the Republican field, while the Democratic field has been led by U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and includes actor Hill Harper.

Slotkin announced her intentions in February, but the Republican field had remained relatively empty until Rogers announced a campaign in September and Craig did so in October. Slotkin had nearly $4 million more in the bank than any other Senate candidate through September, according to campaign finance numbers released earlier this month.

Meijer, who is from Grand Rapids, is a former Army reserve officer who served in Iraq. He was seen as part of the next generation of Republican leaders when he was elected to the U.S. House in 2020 at only 32 year old. But a vote to impeach Trump just two weeks into Meijer’s first-term made him an immediate target of Trump loyalists.

Meijer was among 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 following the deadly mob siege of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He would go on to lose reelection to a Trump-backed primary opponent in 2022 despite having a significant fundraising advantage.

Questions still linger about whether a moderate candidate who voted to impeach Trump can survive a Republican primary. Trump won Michigan in 2016, and his endorsed candidates have overwhelmingly won primaries before losing by wide margins in general elections.

If Meijer could get past the GOP primary, he likely would present a formidable challenge to the Democratic nominee. His surname is one of the most recognizable in the state, and his reputation as a moderate Republican could help in a state that’s trended Democratic in recent years.

Republicans have taken just one of Michigan’s last 15 Senate, races but the margin of victory for Democrats has shrunk every election since Democratic Sen. Carl Levin won reelection in 2008 by a 29% margin. Democratic Sen. Gary Peters won reelection over GOP challenger John James by less than 2% in 2020, the closest race in more than two decades.

Aided in part by turmoil in the GOP, Democrats won decisive victories in 2022, taking control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time in decades and maintaining control of the governor’s office. The party also won nearly every competitive U.S. House race in Michigan last year.

Defending the Michigan seat could prove crucial for Democrats in their effort to maintain the Senate, where the party holds a 51-49 majority and also faces tough headwinds as they defend seats in Republican-leaning states from West Virginia to Montana and Ohio.

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Michigan Republican who got booted from the 2022 ballot launches Senate bid

Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig confirmed Tuesday that he would seek the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a declaration that comes the year after he was ejected from the 2022 primary ballot for governor of Michigan over fraudulent signatures. "I'm not doing it for ego," said Craig, whose last campaign experience would have humbled almost anyone else.

Protestors disrupted his 2021 kickoff rally for his quest to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and that was just the start of his troubles. Craig's campaign would experience several major shakeups, including the departure of two different campaign managers in less than four months, and it would also draw unfavorable press coverage for heavy spending.

The former chief also lost a high-profile endorsement from Rep. Jack Bergman, a northern Michigan Republican who griped that his former choice ignored his region "in favor of a self proclaimed Detroit-centric approach." Still, polls showed Craig well ahead in the primary as he sought to become the Wolverine State's first Black governor.

Everything changed in May, though, when election authorities disqualified Craig and four other contenders from the ballot after they fell victim to a huge fraudulent signature scandal and failed to turn in enough valid petitions. The former frontrunner decided to forge ahead with a write-in campaign to win the GOP nod, blustering, "I'm going to win." However, Craig instead became an afterthought even before far-right radio commentator Tudor Dixon emerged as the new frontrunner, and he ended up taking all of 2% of the vote.

Craig went on to endorse U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee Donna Brandenburg, who had also been ejected from the Republican primary, saying that Dixon's extreme opposition to abortion rights went too far even for him. (James himself was recorded the previous year responding in the affirmative when asked if he'd stop Democrats "from undoing the law that makes abortion illegal in Michigan.") Whitmer soon won 54-44, with Brandenburg in fourth with just 0.4%.

The former chief launched his new effort weeks after former Rep. Mike Rogers joined the nomination fight, and Craig has already worked to position himself as the Trumpiest candidate. The new contender published a pro-Trump op-ed last month in the far-right Daily Caller, and the GOP's supreme master responded by sharing it on social media.

Rogers, by contrast, has had a bumpier relationship with Trump. While the former congressman briefly served on Trump's 2016 transition team, he told the Washington Post last year that "Trump's time has passed." Rogers, who considered waging his own presidential bid, also said of the Jan. 6 riot, "There is never a time in American democracy when violence accomplishes what you want … It is giving up on our Constitution when you storm the Capitol to try to change an election."

But Rogers, whom multiple outlets say the NRSC recruited to run for the Senate, now seems to have realized that Trump's time very much has not passed for the primary voters who will be determining his fate next year. The former congressman echoed the far-right voices in his party last week in a video proclaiming, "[W]hat we are seeing right now is a politically motivated DOJ waging war against the leading Republican presidential candidate on behalf of President [Joe] Biden." "This is not the mike Rogers i knew," tweeted former Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted for impeachment after Jan. 6. "How did you fall so far mike?"

The GOP field also includes state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, who struggled to raise money during the first half of the year, and it may swell still further. Former Rep. Peter Meijer, who lost renomination last year after voting for impeachment, formed an exploratory committee just before Labor Day. Wealthy businessman Perry Johnson, who got thrown off the 2022 gubernatorial ballot along with James, also said last week he was considering abandoning his doomed presidential bid to run for the Senate; the Detroit News also reported in August that another rich guy, 2018 primary loser Sandy Pensler, is thinking about another try, and the paper wrote Tuesday that he was still mulling it over.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Elissa Slotkin is the frontrunner in a field that includes actor Hill Harper, who launched his campaign in early July. Observers are waiting to learn if Harper or any of the other contenders raised a credible amount of money during the third quarter of the year or if Slotkin ended September as the only Democrat with enough money to run a serious operation.

Click here to stop Republicans from snatching the Senate!

She helped Michigan adopt fair districts. Now she’s running for one of them

Attorney Jessica Swartz on Wednesday became the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga in Michigan's 4th District, a historically red constituency around Kalamazoo that Donald Trump would have taken by a small 51-47 margin in 2020. Swartz, though, said that Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer carried it last year, and new numbers from Daily Kos Elections find the governor did indeed prevail by a tight 50-49 as she was pulling off a 54-44 statewide landslide.

The Democrat is a first-time candidate, though she's not quite a political novice. Swartz previously volunteered for Voters Not Politicians, a nonpartisan organization that successfully promoted a 2018 referendum to create Michigan's independent redistricting commission. That body ended up drawing a map for the 2022 elections that led Huizenga, who'd previously represented the reliably red 2nd District along the western Michigan coast, to run for the more competitive 4th even though he only represented about a quarter of the new seat.

For months it looked like there would be an incumbent vs. incumbent primary clash between the Trump-backed Huizenga and longtime Rep. Fred Upton, who'd voted to impeach the GOP's leader after the Jan. 6 attack, but Upton ended up retiring ahead of what would have been a challenging race. Swartz, in an interview with the Holland Sentinel, argued the district needed someone more like Upton, whom she praised for working across party lines and providing for his constituents, than the hard-right Huizenga.

Huizenga, who won his last race 54-42 against an underfunded Democrat, finished June with $630,000 in the bank, though it's possible he won't use it on this contest. The congressman has expressed interest a few times this year in running for Michigan's open Senate seat, with his most recent public comments coming from a May interview with the conservative site The Dispatch. Huizenga acknowledged the state presents a "tough environment" for his party, but while he said he was "hoping to have a decision probably this quarter," June 30 came and went without any word about his plans. 

Another disastrous Republican candidate from last year is mulling a comeback, this time in Michigan

The latest Michigan Republican to express interest in the state’s open Senate race is former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who ran a chaotic 2022 campaign for governor even before he was ejected from the ballot over fraudulent signatures. But Craig, who went on to wage a hopeless write-in campaign last year, remains characteristically undeterred, telling The Detroit News he’s giving a Senate effort a “real critical look” but has no timeline to make up his mind. Several more disastrous Republican candidates from last cycle are also eyeing Senate runs in other states, though unlike Craig, they were at least able to make the ballot before losing.   

Craig was the frontrunner in the summer of 2021 when he entered the GOP primary to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, though his initial announcement that he was forming an exploratory committee―an entity that doesn't actually exist under Michigan law―was an early omen about the problems ahead. Indeed, the former chief’s bid would experience several major shakeups, including the departure of two different campaign managers in less than four months.

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Craig, who also made news for his heavy spending, got some more unwelcome headlines in April of 2022 when Rep. Jack Bergman announced he was switching his endorsement to self-funding businessman Perry Johnson; Bergman complained that his first choice ignored "campaigning in Northern Michigan and the [Upper Peninsula] in favor of a self proclaimed Detroit-centric approach.” Still, polls showed Craig well ahead in the primary as he sought to become the Wolverine State’s first Black governor.

Everything changed in May, though, when election authorities disqualified Craig, Johnson, and three other contenders from the ballot after they fell victim to a huge fraudulent signature scandal and failed to turn in enough valid petitions. Both Craig and Johnson both unsuccessfully sued to get reinstated, but only the former chief decided to forge ahead with a write-in campaign to win the GOP nod.

Craig blustered, “I'm going to win,” but he became an afterthought even before far-right radio commentator Tudor Dixon emerged as the new frontrunner. Craig’s write-in effort ended up taking all of 2% of the vote, though he was far from willing to back Dixon after she secured the nomination that once looked his for the taking. He instead endorsed U.S. Taxpayers Party contender Donna Brandenburg, who had also been ejected from the Republican primary, saying that Dixon’s extreme opposition to abortion rights went too far even for him. Whitmer soon won 54-44, with Brandenburg in fourth with just 0.4%.

Craig’s newest campaign flirtations come at a time when no major Republicans have stepped up to run for the Senate seat held by retiring Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow. The only notable declared contender is state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, who also failed to make the primary ballot in 2020 when she tried to challenge Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin. (Dixon herself didn’t shut the door on a Senate bid right after Stabenow announced her departure in January, but we’ve heard little from her over the following three months.) Slotkin continues to have the Democratic side to herself, though actor Hill Harper reportedly plans to run and state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is publicly considering herself.

Click here to stop Republicans from snatching the Senate!

Tuesday Primary Preview: Trump’s Big Lie slate aims to go three for three in key Arizona races

Primary season is back in full force on Tuesday with major contests taking place in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Ohio voters will also go back to the polls for primaries for their state legislature, which were delayed because of redistricting litigation (primaries for the Buckeye State’s other offices took place as planned in early May).

Below you'll find our guide to all of the top contests, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

And of course, because this is a redistricting year, every state on the docket has a brand-new congressional map. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington.

Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall. And if you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.

Our live coverage will begin at 8 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections when polls close in Missouri as well as most of Kansas and Michigan. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states. Lastly, you can track the outcomes of each of these key races with our cheat sheet, which we’ll keep continuously updated throughout election night.

Ohio

Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.

Kansas

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time in the portion of the state located in the Central time zone, where virtually all Kansans live, and an hour later in four sparsely populated counties along the state's western border with Colorado. Individual counties have the option to keep their polls open an extra hour.

KS Ballot (56-41 Trump): The Kansas Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that the state constitution protects abortion rights, but the Republican-dominated legislature has placed a proposed constitutional amendment on the primary ballot to change that. If a majority votes “yes” on Tuesday, then the legislature would have the power to end abortion in the state. A win for the “no” side, however, would keep the status quo intact. The only poll that’s been released was a mid-July survey from a Republican pollster on its own behalf that showed “yes” ahead 47-43.

Other Kansas races to watch: KS-AG (R)

Michigan

Polls close at 8 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where almost all Michiganders live, and an hour later in four small counties in the Upper Peninsula along the state's western border with Wisconsin.

MI-Gov (R) (51-48 Biden): The Republican contest to face Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer transformed dramatically in late May when a massive signature fraud scandal prevented former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who had been the frontrunner, and four other candidates from appearing on the primary ballot. One of the five remaining contenders, conservative radio host Tudor Dixon, soon earned the backing of former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos and other members of her influential family, plus a last-second endorsement from Donald Trump. She’s posted leads in most recent polls, and national Democrats seem convinced that Dixon will advance as well, as they recently launched ads against her.

Self-funding businessman Kevin Rinke, who most surveys have had in second, has used his wealth to decisively outspend his rivals; Rinke has aired commercials faulting Dixon for accepting the help of DeVos, who resigned from Trump’s cabinet a day after the Jan. 6 attack. Another candidate, real estate agent Ryan Kelley, attracted national attention in June when the FBI arrested him on misdemeanor charges related to his role in the riot, but he’s struggled to turn that notoriety into votes. Chiropractor Garrett Soldano and pastor Ralph Rebandt are also running, while Craig is using his limited remaining funds in a long-shot effort to win the nomination through a write-in campaign.

MI-03 (R) (53-45 Biden): Freshman Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of the 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump, faces primary opposition from a Trump-backed challenger, conservative commentator John Gibbs. The winner will go up against 2020 Democratic nominee Hillary Scholten, who faces no intra-party opposition for her second bid, in a Grand Rapids-based seat that Michigan's new independent redistricting commissions transformed from a 51-47 Trump seat to one Biden would have decisively carried.

Meijer and his allies have massively outspent Gibbs’ side, though the challenger got a late boost from Democrats who believe he’d be easier to beat in November. The DCCC launched an ad campaign in the final week declaring that Gibbs was "[h]andpicked by Trump to run for Congress" and saying he supports a "hardline against immigrants at the border and so-called 'patriotic education' in our schools." A pro-Meijer PAC quickly responded by running its own commercial arguing that Gibbs is actually the “handpicked candidate” of Nancy Pelosi.

MI-08 (R) (50-48 Biden): Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is defending a seat in the Flint and Saginaw areas that’s a little more competitive than his current 5th District, and three Republicans are campaigning to face him.

The frontrunner is former Trump administration official Paul Junge, who lost to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin 51-47 in the old 8th District in 2020. (The old and new 8th Districts do not, however, overlap.) Former Grosse Pointe Shores Councilman Matthew Seely, like Junge, has self-funded almost all of his campaign, though Junge has spent far more. The third candidate, businesswoman Candice Miller, shares her name with a former congresswoman who used to represent a neighboring seat, but she’s reported raising nothing.

MI-10 (D) (50-49 Trump): Five Democrats are competing to take on Army veteran John James, who was Team Red's Senate nominee in 2018 and 2020, in a redrawn seat in Detroit's northeastern suburbs that's open because of the incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchup in the 11th (see just below).

The most prominent contender is probably former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, who was the county’s longtime prosecutor. The best-funded candidate, though, is attorney Huwaida Arraf, while Warren Council member Angela Rogensues also has brought in more money than Marlinga. Sterling Heights City Council member Henry Yanez and former Macomb County Health Department head Rhonda Powell are also in, but they’ve each struggled with fundraising. James himself faces only minor opposition in his own primary.

MI-11 (D) (59-39 Biden): The Democratic primary in the new 11th is a duel between a pair of sophomore House members, Haley Stevens and Andy Levin. Stevens' existing 11th District makes up 45% of this revamped seat in Detroit’s northern suburbs, while Levin’s 9th is home to another 25%. Retiring Rep. Brenda Lawrence represents the balance of this district, and she’s backing Stevens.

Stevens and Levin have largely voted the same way while in Congress, though while Levin has emphasized his support for Medicare for all and the Green New Deal, Stevens has portrayed herself as more pragmatic. The congresswoman has enjoyed a huge financial advantage over her colleague; outside groups, led by the hawkish pro-Israel organization AIPAC, have also outspent Levin’s allies by a lopsided margin. A recent independent poll showed Stevens ahead 58-31.

MI-12 (D) (74-25 Biden): Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who is one of the most vocal progressives in the House, faces a prominent intra-party challenge from Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey. Two other candidates, former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson and Lathrup Village Mayor Kelly Garrett, are also running, but they haven’t attracted much attention. The three challengers, like a large portion of the electorate in this Detroit-based seat, are Black, while Tlaib is the daughter of Palestinian immigrants.

Tlaib, whose existing 13th District makes up 53% of the new 12th, has far outspent Winfrey, who has faulted Tlaib for casting a vote from the left against the Biden administration's infrastructure bill. However, a newly established group called Urban Empowerment Action PAC has gotten involved to help Winfrey, and it’s responsible for most of the more than $600,000 that’s been spent on her side.

MI-13 (D) (74-25 Biden): A total of nine Democrats are competing in an extremely expensive contest to succeed retiring Rep. Brenda Lawrence, who is Michigan's only Black member of Congress, in a seat that includes part of Detroit and its southern suburbs. The top spender by far is state Rep. Shri Thanedar, who unsuccessfully sought Team Blue’s nomination for governor in 2018 before winning his current office two years later; Thanedar, who is originally from India, is the only candidate who isn’t Black.

State Sen. Adam Hollier, meanwhile, has benefited from over $6 million in outside spending promoting him and attacking Thanedar. Most of this has come from AIPAC, but VoteVets and the crypto-aligned Protect Our Future have also expended considerable sums. Lawrence, for her part, is supporting Michigan Civil Rights Commissioner Portia Roberson.

A recent independent poll showed Thanedar leading Roberson 22-17, with Hollier at 16. The field also includes hedge fund manager John Conyers III, who is the son and namesake of the late former congressman, and former Detroit General Counsel Sharon McPhail, who each clocked in with 7%, as well as Detroit School Board member Sherry Gay-Dagnogo and Teach for America official Michael Griffie.

Missouri

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

MO-Sen (R) (57-41 Trump): Republicans have a crowded contest to succeed retiring Sen. Roy Blunt in this conservative state, though only three―former Gov. Eric Greitens, Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and Rep. Vicky Hartzler―appear to have a shot at the nomination. The field also includes Rep. Billy Long, state Senate President Pro Tem Dave Schatz, and wealthy attorney Mark McCloskey, but none of them have registered much support in the polls.

Early surveys gave the lead to Greitens, who resigned from the governorship in 2018 in the face of multiple scandals. The candidate, though, has been on the receiving end of millions of dollars worth of ads from a super PAC that, among other things, has highlighted his ex-wife's accusations that Greitens physically abused both her and their children in 2018.

Hartzler, for her part, has the backing of Missouri’s other senator, Josh Hawley, but her efforts to get the biggest endorsement in GOP politics went badly: In early July, Trump publicly announced that he “will NOT BE ENDORSING HER FOR THE SENATE.” Instead, the day before the primary, Trump announced "that ERIC has my Complete and Total Endorsement!" Both Greitens and Schmitt thirstily lapped up the statement as a bona fide expression of support, ignoring the fact that Trump pointedly did not choose between the two.

Unlike the lightning-rod Greitens, Schmitt has managed to avoid any toxic headlines throught the race, though his opponents have tried to portray him as being too close to China. Schmitt has also benefited from more outside spending than anyone else, and recent polls have shown the attorney general in the lead.

The Democrats have a primary battle of their own between Marine veteran Lucas Kunce and businesswoman Trudy Busch Valentine, though the winner will be a longshot, even if they get to face someone as tainted as Greitens. A onetime Republican, former U.S. Attorney John Wood, is also campaigning as an independent.

MO-01 (D) (78-20 Biden): Freshman Rep. Cori Bush pulled off a major upset two years ago when she unseated veteran Rep. Lacy Clay in the Democratic primary, and the high-profile progressive now faces four intra-party opponents in a St. Louis seat that only experienced small changes under the new map.

Bush’s main foe is state Sen. Steve Roberts, who has gone after Bush for casting a vote from the left against the Biden administration's infrastructure bill and has Clay’s backing. Bush's team, meanwhile, has highlighted accusations of sexual assault against Roberts by two different women in 2015 and 2017, though he was never charged in either case. A July poll showed the incumbent ahead 40-20.

MO-04 (R) (69-29 Trump): Seven Republicans are competing to replace Rep. Vicky Hartzler in what remains a safely red constituency in the western part of the state, and there’s no obvious frontrunner.

Cattle farmer Kalena Bruce has the backing of Gov. Mike Parson and the influential Missouri Farm Bureau, while state Sen. Rick Brattin has the prominent anti-abortion group Missouri Right to Life in his corner. Former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks is the only other candidate who has held elected office, while former Kansas City TV anchor Mark Alford enjoys some local name recognition. Retired Navy SEAL Bill Irwin is the final candidate who has spent a notable amount of money.

Outside groups have almost completely focused on helping or hindering only two of the contenders. School Freedom Fund, which is an affiliate of the anti-tax Club for Growth, has spent over $1 million to support Brattin or attack Alford; two other organizations, the crypto-aligned American Dream Federal Action and Conservative Americans PAC have deployed a comparable sum to help Alford and weaken Brattin.

MO-07 (R) (70-28 Trump): The GOP has a similarly crowded eight-way race in southwestern Missouri to replace another Senate candidate, Rep. Billy Long, and no one has an obvious advantage here either. The field includes a trio of state senators, Eric Burlison, Mike Moon, and Jay Wasson, while another name to watch is Alex Bryant, a pastor who would be the first African American Republican to represent Missouri in Congress. The final candidate who has spent a notable amount is physician Sam Alexander.

Wasson, who is self-funding, has far outspent his competition, but Burlison’s allies at the Club for Growth have also dropped $1 million to stop him. The Club and the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, likewise, have deployed almost $600,000 to promote Burlison. A third group, Conservative Americans PAC, has spent close to $700,000 to beat Burlison and a bit less than half of that to hit Moon.

Arizona

Polls close at 10 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

AZ-Sen (R) (49.2-48.9 Biden): Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly will be a top GOP target following his close win in 2020 for the final two years of the late John McCain's term, and five Republicans are competing to face him. Most polls show that the frontrunner is former Thiel Capital chief operating officer Blake Masters, who picked up Trump’s endorsement in June. Masters’ old boss, conservative mega donor Peter Thiel, has poured $15 million into a super PAC to support him, while the anti-tax Club for Growth is also spending on his behalf.

Masters’ main intra-party rival appears to be wealthy businessman Jim Lamon, who posted a lead in one recent survey. Lamon has tried to portray Masters as a phony conservative who only recently relocated to the state from California, and he’s also run a commercial using recent footage of his rival calling the Unabomber “a "subversive thinker that's underrated."

Attorney General Mark Brnovich, meanwhile, began the race looking like the frontrunner, but Trump loathes him for insufficiently advancing the Big Lie and he’s faded in recent months. State Corporation Commissioner Justin Olson and retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Michael McGuire round out the field.

AZ-Gov (R & D) (49.2-48.9 Biden): The Republican primary has turned into an expensive proxy battle between Trump and termed-out Gov. Doug Ducey, a one-time Trump ally who wound up in the MAGA doghouse after he refused to go along with Trump’s efforts to steal the 2020 election.

Trump is all in for Kari Lake, a former local TV anchor turned far-right conspiracy theorist. Ducey, meanwhile, is supporting Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, who has used her wealth to massively outspent Lake. Former Rep. Matt Salmon, who was the 2002 nominee, is also on the ballot along with two others, though he ended his campaign in June and endorsed Robson. Most polls show Lake ahead, though a Robson internal had the race tied.

Robson and her allies are trying to pull off an upset by highlighting Lake’s past as a supporter of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and they got some help in June from an unexpected source. After Lake targeted drag performances as "grooming" and "child abuse," a prominent Phoenix drag queen named Richard Stevens responded by posting images of the two together during their now-severed friendship and revealing that he’d performed for her multiple times. The story wound up in an anti-Lake ad in which another drag queen said that the candidate is “not just a fake, she's a phony'.”

The Democratic side has been a far more low-key affair, though there’s been little recent polling. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has been the frontrunner from the start, and she’s enjoyed a big financial advantage over former Homeland Security official Marco López.

AZ-01 (R & D) (50-49 Biden): Republican Rep. David Schweikert is seeking re-election in a reconfigured seat in the eastern Phoenix area that’s more competitive than his existing 6th District, but he needs to get through an expensive and ugly primary before he can worry about that. Businessman Elijah Norton has enjoyed a huge spending advantage thanks to his personal wealth, and he’s aired ads attacking Schweikert over a major scandal that resulted in the incumbent admitting to 11 different violations of congressional rules and campaign finance laws in 2020.

Schweikert, for his part, has focused on Norton's turbulent departure from his insurance company. The congressman has also circulated mailers showing his challenger and a male friend with the caption, “Elijah Norton isn't being straight with you.” Norton quickly fired back with a defamation lawsuit accusing Schweikert of falsely insinuating that he’s gay. The field also includes Josh Barnett, who badly lost a 2020 race against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego but could cost Norton some much-needed anti-incumbent votes.

The Democratic contest between Jevin Hodge, who lost a tight 2020 race for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, and former Phoenix Suns employee Adam Metzendorf has been far less incendiary. Hodge, who would be Arizona’s first Black congressman, has far outspent his rival, and the DCCC backed him in June.

AZ-02 (R) (53-45 Trump): Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran is defending a seat in northern and eastern rural Arizona that’s considerably more conservative than the 1st District he holds now, and seven Republicans are competing to face him. One of them, Navy SEAL veteran Eli Crane, picked up Donald Trump’s endorsement in the final weeks of the race, a decision that earned Trump loud boos at his rally a few hours later (possibly because of a coordinated effort by opponents who've criticized him for not living in the district).

Crane himself released a survey before he earned Trump’s nod showing him in the lead with 19% while state Rep. Walt Blackman and businessman Mark DeLuzio tied 12-12 for second. Outside groups have spent $1 million to either promote Crane or attack Blackman, a fellow Big Lie promoter who would be the state’s first Black member of Congress. The field also includes Ron Watkins, the reputed founder of the QAnon conspiracy cult, though he’s raised little.

AZ-04 (R) (54-44 Biden): Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton faces six Republicans in a seat based in the southern Phoenix suburbs that is considerably more competitive than the 9th District he now serves. The GOP establishment has consolidated behind Tanya Wheeless, a former president of the Arizona Bankers Association. Her best-funded rival is restaurant owner Kelly Cooper, who has financed most of his campaign himself, while Chandler City Councilman Rene Lopez is also in. Outside groups have deployed over $1 million to support Wheeless and bash Cooper.

AZ-06 (D & R) (49.3-49.2 Biden): Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick announced her retirement last year before Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission drew up a new Tucson-based seat that’s well to the right of her current 2nd District, and both parties have contested primaries to succeed her.

The Democratic side pits former state Rep. Daniel Hernández, who as an intern helped save then-Rep. Gabby Giffords after she was shot in 2011, against state Sen. Kirsten Engel; a third candidate, engineer Avery Anderson, hasn't earned much attention. Both candidates have brought in a comparable amount of money, and major outside groups haven’t been involved here.

Until recently, the Republican primary looked like it would be an easy win for Juan Ciscomani, a former senior advisor to Gov. Doug Ducey who has far outraised his five intra-party foes. But things got more interesting in the final days when the House GOP’s main super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, spent over $1 million to support Ciscomani, whose decision to campaign as a unifier may not be resonating with the primary electorate.

Ciscomani’s main rival appears to be former mortgage banker Kathleen Winn, who has thrown far more red meat to the base. Winn has spread conspiracy theories insinuating that American leaders are “being paid off” by China and Russia, so naturally she has the backing of notorious far-right figures including Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar and Kari Lake, Trump’s candidate for governor.

AZ-AG (R) & AZ-SoS (R & D) (49.2-48.9 Biden): Both the offices of attorney general and secretary of state, which along with the governor are involved in certifying election results in the Grand Canyon State, are open, and Trump is backing an election conspiracy theorist for each.

Trump’s man in the six-way contest for attorney general is former prosecutor Abe Hamadeh, who has denied that Biden won the state. Hamadeh's intra-party foes are Tiffany Shedd, who lost a close general election last cycle in the 1st Congressional District against Rep. Tom O'Halleran; Rodney Glassman, a former Democrat who now sports an endorsement from far-right Rep. Paul Gosar; former prosecutor Lacy Cooper; former Arizona Supreme Court Justice Andrew Gould; and manufacturing executive Dawn Grove. The winner will go up against former Arizona Corporation Commission Chair Kris Mayes, who has no opposition in the Democratic primary.

Over in the four-way contest for secretary of state, Trump is backing state Rep. Mark Finchem, a QAnon supporter who led the failed effort to overturn Biden's victory and attended the Jan. 6 rally just ahead of the attack on the Capitol. Finchem faces two fellow legislators, state Rep. Shawnna Bolick and state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita, who have both promoted voter suppression measures. The final candidate is advertising executive Beau Lane, who has Gov. Doug Ducey’s endorsement and is the one candidate who acknowledges Biden’s win.

The Democratic contest for secretary of state pits state House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding against Adrian Fontes, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as Maricopa County clerk. A recent poll for an unnamed super PAC put Fontes ahead 44-29, but a pro-Bolding group gave their candidate a 35-30 advantage.

Other Arizona races to watch: Maricopa County, AZ Attorney

Washington

Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.

Washington’s top-two primary requires all candidates to compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. The two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 8 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in August by taking a majority of the vote.

WA-03 (51-46 Trump): Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler earned herself a prominent place on Trump's shitlist after she voted for impeachment, and she now faces four fellow Republicans, two Democrats, and two unaffiliated candidates in this southwest Washington constituency that's very similar to her previous district. Trump himself is pulling for Joe Kent, an Army veteran who has defended Putin's invasion of Ukraine and has ties to far-right extremists.

An outside group called Conservatives for A Stronger America, though, has spent over $1 million to attack Kent and elevate a third Republican, evangelical author Heidi St. John. Kent has argued that this organization is trying to “prop up a spoiler candidate and split the vote” in order to help Herrera Beutler advance to the general election, though he’s trying something similar on a smaller scale. His campaign has sent out mail pieces highlighting how the only serious Democratic candidate, auto repair shop owner Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, is the one "pro-choice candidate for Congress,” a move aimed at costing Herrera Beutler Democratic votes. The field also includes GOP state Rep. Vicki Kraft, though she’s earned little notice.

WA-04 (57-40 Trump): Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse, who also voted for impeachment, faces six intra-party opponents in this largely unchanged eastern Washington constituency, while businessman Doug White is the one Democrat in the running. Trump has thrown his support behind 2020 gubernatorial nominee Loren Culp, an ex-cop who has refused to recognize his decisive loss to Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, but he’s badly struggled with fundraising.

Defending Main Street, which is aligned with the GOP leadership, has spent over $1 million praising Newhouse and attacking Culp, while the challenger has received no major outside help. Team Red’s field also includes self-funding businessman Jerrod Sessler and state Rep. Brad Klippert.

WA-08 (52-45 Biden): Three notable Republicans are challenging Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier in what remains a competitive seat in suburban Seattle.

Schrier's most familiar foe is 2020 nominee Jesse Jensen, who unexpectedly held her to a 52-48 win last time despite bringing in little money and is proving to be a considerably stronger fundraiser this time. Another well-established Republican is King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn, who was the 2012 nominee for attorney general; Dunn is the son of the late Rep. Jennifer Dunn, who represented previous versions of this constituency from 1993 to 2005. Team Red's field also includes another failed candidate for attorney general, 2020 nominee Matt Larkin.

Jensen has outspent his intra-party rivals, and he’s also benefited from over $300,000 in support from a super PAC set up to help him. The group’s efforts include ads against Dunn, including mailers highlighting his past struggles with alcoholism.

Other Washington races to watch: WA-SoS

2020 was an election theft dry run for Republicans. Next time, they could succeed

Every election starting now and into the foreseeable future is going to be the most important election of our lifetime. Until the Republican Party as we currently know it is ground to dust, scorched, and the earth on which it stands is salted, the threat of white nationalistic fascism will remain. Right now, in 2022, Republicans are running explicitly on undermining representative democracy, from the smallest local positions up through the state legislatures and all the way to Congress. They are converging behind the Big Lie and promising that they are going to fix it so that they don’t lose any more elections. So that Donald Trump (or his stand-in) will take the 2024 election.

They’re not even trying to be subtle about it—it’s explicit in so many campaigns for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state in plenty of battlegrounds, including the states that Trump tried to contest in 2020.

“What we’re seeing right now is unprecedented,” Joanna Lydgate, co-founder and CEO of States United Action, told CNN’s Rod Brownstein. “To see candidates running on a platform of lies and conspiracy theories about our elections as a campaign position, to see a former President getting involved in endorsing in down-ballot races at the primary level, and certainly to see this kind of systemic attacks on our elections, this spreading of disinformation about our elections—we’ve never seen anything like this before as a country.”

RELATED STORY: Republican state legislators are laying the groundwork to overturn the next election

Brownstein reports on a study released last week—commissioned by the groups States United Democracy Center, Protect Democracy, and Law Forward—which determined that 13 states have already approved laws to make sure there will be partisan control over election administration, laws to intimidate election administrators, and laws requiring audits of the 2020 election, as if that is a thing. That’s beyond the orgy they’ve been having for the past decade with voter suppression laws, which hasn’t ended either. Thirty-three states have another 229 bills related to denying the results of the last election, and to limiting the electorate and predetermining the outcome of future elections.

“Taken separately, each of these bills would chip away at the system of free and fair elections that Americans have sustained, and worked to improve, for generations,” the groups concluded. “Taken together, they could lead to an election in which the voters’ choices are disregarded and the election sabotaged.”

“In the leadup to the 2020 election, those who warned of a potential crisis were dismissed as alarmists by far too many Americans who should have seen the writing on the wall,” Jessica Marsden, counsel at Protect Democracy, told Brownstein in an email. “Almost two years later, after an attempted coup and a violent insurrection on our Capitol, election conspiracy theorists—including those who actually participated in January 6—are being nominated by the GOP to hold the most consequential offices for overseeing the 2024 election.”

“It’s all connected,” Lydgate said. “The playbook is to try to change the rules and change the referees, so you can change the results.”

They’ve got a very powerful referee on their side in the form of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.

A casual observer might reasonably conclude that Ginni and Clarence Thomas are working in tandem to lay the groundwork for the next coup—with Ginni taking up the politics and Clarence handling the legal side. The symmetry between their work is remarkable. https://t.co/wUh5TiHk4q pic.twitter.com/tooRedMQJk

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) May 23, 2022

Thomas won’t recuse himself from any of these cases, and as of now, a Democratic Congress doesn’t seem particularly interested in trying to force him to via the threat of investigation and impeachment.

“What’s past is prologue, and what was done sloppily in 2020 is being mapped out by experts for 2024,” Slate’s Stern and Dahlia Lithwick write. “It didn’t work in 2020 because the legal and political structures to support it weren’t in place at the time. Those pieces are being put into place as we type this.” That’s the story Brownstein is also trying to get to Democrats and the rest of the traditional media—anyone who will listen and can do something about it.

There are answers. There are ways to fix this. They start with electing enough Democrats to state offices to make sure the damage the fascists can do is limited. We can also elect enough Democrats to the House and to the Senate to make the two Republican-friendly, obstructionist Democratic senators irrelevant.

Then it’ll be a matter of convincing that Democratic majority and a Democratic president that none of this is blogger hysteria, but a very real threat to our freedoms that has everybody else’s hair on fire. Saving our representative democracy means expanding and reforming the court.

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Michigan Rep. Fred Upton, one of the 10 Republicans to back impeachment, retiring after 18 terms

Michigan Rep. Fred Upton, who was one of the 10 Republicans that voted to impeach Donald Trump last year, announced Tuesday that he would not seek a 19th term this fall. Upton emailed his supporters that he believed “it is time to pass the torch,” though the person who will most likely be claiming that beacon in the new 4th Congressional District is his colleague and would-be primary foe, Trump-backed Rep. Bill Huizenga.

While it’s possible that Upton’s departure will entice someone else to run against Huizenga in the August GOP primary, they’d need to collect at least 1,000 valid signatures by the April 19 filing deadline. No notable Democrats have entered the race so far for the new version of the 4th, a southwestern Michigan seat Trump would have carried 51-47 in 2020.

Huizenga announced back in December right after the state’s new congressional maps were completed that he’d be seeking re-election in the new 4th, and he earned an endorsement from Trump last month. Upton, by contrast, spent months keeping the political world guessing whether he’d go up against Huizenga in the primary or retire, though until Tuesday, he’d sounded likely to run again. Upton in February even launched a $400,000 ad campaign where he told viewers, “If you want a rubber stamp as your congressman, I'm the wrong guy. But if you want someone committed to solving problems, putting policy over politics, then I'm asking for your support.”

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Upton, though, said he was still undecided about 2022, and his retirement announcement proves he wasn’t just playing coy. On Tuesday, he insisted that redistricting mattered more to him than any backlash from his impeachment vote, saying, “My district was cut like Zorro—three different ways.” However, it was Huizenga who, at least on paper, was more disadvantaged by the new map: While about two-thirds of the residents of the new 4th are currently Upton’s constituents, Huizenga represents only about one-quarter of the seat he’s now the frontrunner to claim.

Upton’s decision ends a long career in politics that began in the late 1970s when he started working for local Rep. David Stockman, and he remained on his staff when Stockman became Ronald Reagan’s first director of the Office of Management and Budget. Upton decided to seek elected office himself in 1986 when he launched a primary challenge to Rep. Mark Siljander, who had succeeded Stockman in the House in 1981, in an earlier version of the 4th District.

Siljander was an ardent social conservative well to the right of even Reagan: Among other things, he’d unsuccessfully tried to torpedo Sandra Day O’Connor’s nomination to the Supreme Court in 1981 because he didn’t feel she was sufficiently conservative, and he even threatened to vote against the White House’s properties to try and stop O’Connor. Siljander, though, had taken just 58% of the vote in his 1984 primary, which showed that a significant number of primary voters were unhappy with him.

Upton argued that, while both he and Siljander were “conservative Republican[s],” the incumbent had ignored his constituents to focus on international issues. Upton, by contrast, argued that he’d work better with the party’s leadership and seek committee assignments that would allow him to direct his energies to domestic concerns. The race took a truly nasty turn late in the campaign when audio leaked of Siljander telling local clergy members to aid him in order to “break the back of Satan,” arguing that his loss “would send a shock wave across America that Christians can be defeated in Congress by impugning their integrity and smear tactics.”

Upton ended up dispatching the congressman 55-45, a wide result both sides attributed to Siljander’s comments. Upton’s team, while denying that the outcome represented a loss for the religious right, predicted, “Fred’s tactics will be much more moderate and more reasonable.” Upton easily prevailed in the general election and had no trouble winning for decades: Siljander, for his part, was last in the news in late 2020 when Trump pardoned what an angry Upton described as “a series of federal crimes including obstruction of justice, money laundering and lobbying for an international terrorist group with ties to Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida and the Taliban.”

Upton in 2002 easily turned back a primary challenge from state Sen. Dale Shugars 66-32 in what was now numbered the 6th District, but he was more vulnerable to an intra-party challenge in 2010 when the burgeoning tea party turned its wrath on the longtime establishment figure. His opponent was former state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk, who had badly failed to unseat Democratic Sen. Carl Levin two years before but argued that Upton was insufficiently conservative. The congressman outspent Hoogendyk by an 18-to-1 margin but prevailed only 57-43, which enticed Hoogendyk to try again in 2012.

However, while the anti-tax Club for Growth ran commercials this time against Upton, who by now was ​​chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee, the incumbent worked hard to emphasize his opposition to the Obama administration and won by a larger 67-33 margin. That was the last time he faced a serious primary challenge at the ballot box, but in 2014 he went through his first expensive general election campaign when a law professor Larry Lessig directed his Mayday PAC, which he called his “super PAC to end super PACs,” against Upton.

Mayday spent over $2 million to aid a previously-unheralded Democrat named Paul Clements, and while Upton didn’t come close to losing in that red wave year, Democrats hoped his 56-40 showing meant he could be beaten in a better political climate. Clements sought a rematch in 2016, but Upton won by a 59-36 spread.

In 2018, though, he faced a considerably tougher battle against physician Matt Longjohn at a time when the GOP was on the defensive nationwide. Upton got some surprising help during that campaign when Joe Biden delivered a speech in his district that was paid in part by an Upton family foundation; Biden, who was apparently motivated to praise Upton because of the congressman's work on a bill called the 21st Century Cures Act, declared the congressman was "one of the finest guys I've ever worked with" and "the reason we're going to beat cancer." Ultimately, the congressman prevailed 50-46 in what was by far the closest race of his career.

Democrats hoped they could finally take him down in 2020, but Upton returned to form and beat state Rep. Jon Hoadley 56-40 as Trump was carrying his seat 51-47. Two months later, Upton responded to the Jan. 6 attack by voting for impeachment, a vote that arguably did more than anything else to close out his lengthy time in Congress.