Morning Digest: Shock Democratic win in New York special is latest data point suggesting no red wave

Posted on August 24, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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Leading Off

● NY-19 (special): Democrat Pat Ryan scored a huge special election upset for his party by defeating Republican Marc Molinaro 52-48 in New York’s 19th District, a swing seat in the Hudson Valley that Molinaro appeared poised to flip until polls closed on Tuesday. The win for Ryan, an Army veteran who serves as Ulster County executive and made abortion rights the centerpiece of his campaign, is the latest―and most dramatic― sign that the political landscape has shifted since the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade at the end of June.

Joe Biden carried this constituency 50-48 (the special was fought under the old congressional map), but until results started rolling in, both parties had behaved as though Molinaro was the strong favorite. Molinaro, who leads Dutchess County, defeated then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo by a wide 53-42 in the 19th in 2018 even as Cuomo was prevailing statewide in a 60-36 landslide. That strong local performance motivated national Republicans to try to recruit Molinaro to take on Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado in 2020, and while he declined that cycle, he eventually bit on a campaign last year.

But that anticipated Delgado-Molinaro bout was averted in the spring when the congressman resigned after Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed him as lieutenant governor―a career switch Republicans argued was motivated by Delgado’s wariness about his re-election prospects. The unexpected special election seemed to be good news indeed for Molinaro, who began with a months-long head start over his eventual Democratic rival at a time when a GOP wave looked imminent.

Ryan, who had lost the 2018 primary to Delgado, quickly closed much of the financial gap he faced by the end of June, but he still looked like the decided underdog. Even a late June internal poll for Ryan taken days after Roe was repealed showed him down 43-40. However, the same survey found that the Democrat could turn things around by hammering home Molinaro’s opposition to abortion rights. Ryan did just that in ad after ad, while Molinaro and the GOP continued to emphasize inflation and crime while ignoring reproductive rights.

Still, Democrats remained pessimistic about Ryan’s chances. While the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund spent a combined $1.8 million here, the DCCC limited its involvement to running some joint buys with their nominee. (We won’t know how much the committee spent until new fundraising reports are out in late September.) The progressive veterans group VoteVets, however, dropped $500,000 to help Ryan with an ad campaign declaring that the candidate, who served in Iraq, "sure didn't fight for our freedom abroad to see it taken away from women here at home.”

But it still didn’t seem to be enough: An early August DCCC poll found Molinaro leading 46-43—that same stubborn 3-point margin—while the Democratic firm Data for Progress released its own poll on Election Day giving him an even larger 53-45 edge. Tuesday’s upset, though, validated Ryan’s tight focus on abortion rights―a strategy fellow Democrats have deployed in other races across the country.

Both Ryan and Molinaro will be on the ballot again in November under the new court-drawn congressional map, but they won’t be facing each other this time. The new congressman is Team Blue’s nominee for the redrawn 18th District in the Lower Hudson Valley, turf that, at 53-45 Biden, is several points to the left of the constituency he just won. Ryan, who will represent just under 30% of the new district, will go up against Republican Assemblyman Colin Schmitt this time.

Molinaro himself will be competing in the new 19th District, a seat in the southeastern part of upstate New York that also would have gone for Biden by a larger spread, in this case 51-47. About 42% of the new 19th’s residents live in the district Molinaro just lost, but importantly, none of his home county of Dutchess is contained in the district. Molinaro’s opponent will be attorney Josh Riley, who claimed Team Blue’s nomination on Tuesday and will have the chance to deal the county executive his second straight defeat of the year in just a few months.

election recaps

● Election Night: Below is a state-by-state look at where Tuesday’s other major contests stood as of early Wednesday, and you can also find our cheat-sheet here. Note that New York allows absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they’re received through Aug. 30, so some of the margins in the Empire State may change.

● FL-Gov (D): Rep. Charlie Crist defeated state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried 60-35 in the Democratic primary to take on GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis. Crist, who was elected governor in 2006 as a Republican and narrowly lost the 2014 general election to reclaim his prior post following his party switch, will be in for a tough fight against DeSantis, who begins the general election with a massive $132 million war chest.

● FL-01 (R): Rep. Matt Gaetz prevailed 70-24 against Mark Lombardo, a self-funder who ran ads reminding viewers that the incumbent remains under federal investigation for sex trafficking of a minor and other alleged offenses. Gaetz will likely be secure in November no matter what happens next in a Pensacola area constituency that Trump would have taken 65-33.

● FL-04 (R & D): State Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean defeated Navy veteran Erick Aguilar 68-26 in the GOP primary for an open Jacksonville area seat that Trump would have carried 53-46.

On the Democratic side, businesswoman LaShonda Holloway leads former state Sen. Tony Hill 50.2-49.8 with 58,000 votes counted, which the AP, which has not yet called the race, estimates is 99% of the total. Both of Team Blue’s candidates have struggled to bring in cash here, and neither national party has shown an obvious interest in it.

● FL-07 (R): Army veteran Cory Mills beat state Rep. Anthony Sabatini 34-21 in the GOP primary to succeed Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a Democrat who decided to retire just before the GOP transfigured her suburban Orlando district from a 55-44 Biden seat to one Trump would have carried 52-47.

Mills notably ran commercials where he bragged that his company’s tear gas was used on what the on-screen text labeled as "Hillary Clinton protesters," "left wing protesters," "antifa rioters," "Black Lives Matter protesters," and "radical left protesters." The Republican nominee will face Karen Green, a state Democratic official who hasn’t raised much money so far.

● FL-10 (D): Gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost won the 10-way primary to replace Democratic Senate nominee Val Demings by defeating state Sen. Randolph Bracy 35-25; two former House members, Alan Grayson and Corrine Brown, took 15% and 9%, respectively. Biden would have won this Orlando-based seat 65-33.

Frost, who is 25, will almost certainly be the youngest member of Congress come January. His primary win also represents a victory for the crypto-aligned Protect Our Future PAC, which spent about $1 million to aid him.

● FL-11 (R): Rep. Dan Webster held off far-right troll Laura Loomer only 51-44 in one of the biggest surprises of the night.

Loomer, a self-described "proud Islamophobe" who is banned on numerous social media, rideshare, and payment services, characteristically reacted to her near-miss by refusing to concede and spreading conspiracy theories about the primary. Trump would have carried this constituency in the western Orlando suburbs, which includes the gargantuan retirement community of The Villages, 55-44.

● FL-13 (R): 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna, who has the backing of Donald Trump and the Club for Growth, earned the GOP nod again by beating attorney Kevin Hayslett 44-34 after an expensive and nasty contest. The Democratic pick to succeed Rep. Charlie Crist is former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, who is defending a St. Petersburg-based district that the Republicans transformed from a 52-47 Biden seat to one Trump would have taken 53-46.

● FL-14 (R): Public relations firm owner James Judge trounced self-funding businessman Jerry Torres 53-30 just days after a court rejected a lawsuit that tried to keep Torres off the ballot. Judge will be the underdog against Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in this 59-40 Biden seat in Tampa and St. Petersburg.

● FL-15 (R & D): Former Secretary of State Laurel Lee outpaced state Sen. Kelli Stargel 41-28 in the Republican primary for a new district in the Tampa suburbs that was created because Florida won a new seat in reapportionment. This constituency would have backed Trump 51-48.

The Democratic nominee will be former local TV anchor Alan Cohn, who routed political consultant Gavin Brown 33-22. Cohn lost the 2020 contest for the previous version of the 15th to Republican Scott Franklin 55-45 as Trump was taking that seat by a similar 54-45 margin; Franklin is now seeking the new 18th.

● FL-20 (D): Freshman Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick decisively won her rematch with former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, whom she defeated by all of five votes in last year's crowded special election, 66-29. This constituency, which is located in the inland Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach areas, is safely blue at 76-23 Biden.

● FL-23 (D): Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz turned back Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen 61-21. Moskowitz should have no trouble succeeding retiring Rep. Ted Deutch in a Fort Lauderdale-based seat that Biden would have carried 56-43.

● FL-27 (D): State Sen. Annette Taddeo, who had the support of the DCCC and other national Democrats, beat Miami Commissioner Ken Russell 68-26 for the nod to take on freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. The GOP sought to protect the new incumbent by shifting her Miami-area seat to the right: While Biden carried the old 27th 51-48, Trump would have taken the new version 50-49.

● OK-Sen-B (R): Rep. Markwayne Mullin, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement for the runoff, bested former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon in a 65-35 runoff landslide.

Mullin will be the frontrunner against former Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn in the general election to succeed Sen. Jim Inhofe, whose resignation takes effect at the end of this Congress, in one of the reddest states in the nation. (That’s not entirely welcome news to Inhofe, who recently told Read Frontier, “Markwayne and I, we have problems.”) Mullin, who is a member of the Cherokee Nation, would be the first Native American to serve in the Senate since Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a Colorado Democrat turned Republican, retired in 2005.

● OK-02 (R): Former state Sen. Josh Brecheen edged out state Rep. Avery Frix 52-48 after a very expensive GOP runoff to succeed Markwayne Mullin in this dark red Eastern Oklahoma seat. A PAC affiliated with the Club for Growth spent over $3.4 million to promote Brecheen, who is a former Club fellow, while Frix had extensive support from his own outside group allies.

● NY-01 (R): Nick LaLota, who serves as chief of staff of the Suffolk County Legislature, beat cryptocurrency trader Michelle Bond 47-28 in the primary to replace Rep. Lee Zeldin, the GOP nominee for governor. The wealthy Bond and her allies (including a PAC that just happens to be funded by her boyfriend, crypto notable Ryan Salame), far outspent LaLota, but he had the support of the county’s Republican and Conservative parties.

LaLota will now go up against Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, who had the Democratic primary to herself. While Trump won the old 1st 51-47, Biden would have carried the new version of this eastern Long Island constituency by a narrow 49.4-49.2.

● NY-02 (R): Freshman Rep. Andrew Garbarino turned in an unexpectedly weak 54-38 victory over an unheralded Army and Navy veteran named Robert Cornicelli. The challenger eagerly embraced the Big Lie, and he used his limited resources to remind voters that Garbarino voted for a Jan. 6 commission. Garbarino also supported the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill as well as legislation protecting same-sex and interracial marriage, which may have further damaged his standing with the base.

Garbarino will now face a rematch against Democrat Jackie Gordon, an Army veteran he defeated 53-46 in 2020 as Trump was taking the old 2nd 51-47. The redrawn version of this seat, which is based in the south shore of Suffolk County, would have gone for Trump by a smaller 50-49 margin.

● NY-03 (D): DNC member Robert Zimmerman, a longtime party fundraiser who would be Long Island’s first gay member of Congress, beat Deputy Suffolk County Executive Jon Kaiman 36-26 in the primary to replace Rep. Tom Suozzi, who left to unsuccessfully run for governor in June. Another 20% went to Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan, who had Suozzi’s endorsement and benefited from spending by Protect Our Future PAC.

Zimmerman, who lost a race for Congress all the way back in 1982, will go up against 2020 Republican nominee George Santos. Suozzi last time held off Santos 56-43 as Biden was carrying the old 3rd 55-44; the new version of this seat, which is based in northern Nassau County, would have supported the president by a smaller 53-45 spread.

● NY-04 (D): Former Hempstead Supervisor Laura Gillen defeated Nassau County Legislator Carrié Solages 63-24 in the primary to replace retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice, who supported Gillen. The GOP is fielding Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito for a southern Nassau County district that Biden would have won 57-42.

● NY-10 (D): Daniel Goldman, a self-funder who served as House Democrats' lead counsel during Trump's first impeachment, beat Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou 26-24 in the busy primary for this safely blue seat in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn; Rep. Mondaire Jones, who currently represents the 17th District well to the north of the city in the Hudson Valley, took third with 18%.

● NY-11 (D): Former Rep. Max Rose will get his rematch against freshman GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis following his 75-21 primary victory over Army veteran Brittany Debarros. The court-drawn version of this seat, which retains all of Staten Island, would have supported Trump 53-46, while he prevailed 55-44 in the old boundaries; Malliotakis herself unseated Rose 53-47 last cycle.

● NY-12 (D): Rep. Jerry Nadler won the final incumbent vs. incumbent primary of the cycle by convincingly defeating fellow Rep. Carolyn Maloney 55-24 in a revamped safely blue seat that’s home to Manhattan’s Upper East Side and Upper West Side.

● NY-16 (D): Freshman Rep. Jamaal Bowman earned renomination in this loyally blue constituency by turning back Westchester County Legislator Vedat Gashi 57-23.

● NY-17 (D): Incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, who heads the DCCC, beat state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi 67-33 in this lower Hudson Valley seat. Maloney will go up against Republican Assemblyman Michael Lawler, who won his own primary 76-12, in a constituency Biden would have taken 54-44.

● NY-19 (D): Attorney Josh Riley outpaced businesswoman Jamie Cheney 64-36 in a southeastern upstate New York district. Riley will now go up against Republican Marc Molinaro, who lost Tuesday’s special election for the old 19th, for a redrawn seat that would have favored Biden 51-47.

● NY-22 (R & D): The GOP establishment got some unwelcome news when Navy veteran Brandon Williams defeated businessman Steve Wells 58-42 in the primary to succeed their fellow Republican, retiring Rep. John Katko, for a district located in the Syracuse and Utica areas. The Congressional Leadership Fund evidently believed that Wells was the better bet for this 53-45 Biden seat because the super PAC spent close to $1 million on an unsuccessful effort to get him across the finish line.

On the Democratic side, Navy veteran Francis Conole beat Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood 39-36. Conole far outspent the entire field, and he benefited from over $500,000 in aid from Protect Our Future PAC.

● NY-23 (special): Steuben County Republican Party Chair Joe Sempolinski held off Air Force veteran Max Della Pia only 53-47 in a special election to succeed GOP Rep. Tom Reed in a 55-43 Trump seat. Sempolinski isn’t running for a full term anywhere, while Della is competing for a full term in the revamped 23rd.

● NY-23 (R): State GOP chair Nick Langworthy scored a 52-48 upset over developer Carl Paladino, the proto-Trump who served as the 2010 Republican nominee for governor, in the contest to succeed departing GOP Rep. Chris Jacobs. Langworthy will take on Air Force veteran Max Della Pia in a seat in the Buffalo suburbs and southwestern upstate New York that would have gone for Trump 58-40.

Paladino, who used his vast wealth to far outspend Langworthy, has a long and ongoing history of bigoted outbursts. But that didn’t stop Rep. Elise Stefanik, who represents the neighboring 21st District and serves as the number-three Republican in the House, from backing Paladino, a move that one unnamed House Republican griped was “baffling” and “off-putting.” The gamble, though, very much didn’t pay off for Stefanik or Paladino.

● NY-24 (R): Rep. Claudia Tenney beat back attorney Mario Fratto by an underwhelming 54-40, though she should have no trouble in the general for a 57-40 Trump seat in the Finger Lakes region. Tenney had the support of Trump as well as a huge financial lead over Fratto, but she currently represents a mere 6% of this revamped district.

Senate

● MO-Sen: Independent John Wood announced Tuesday he was dropping out of the general election, a move that came after a super PAC affiliated with former GOP Sen. John Danforth spent $3.6 million on his behalf.

Wood sent out an email to his supporters saying he'd decided to run at a time when disgraced Gov. Eric Greitens was a serious contender for the Republican nomination, saying, "That would have been unacceptable, embarrassing, and dangerous for my party, my state, and my Country." Greitens, though, lost the Aug. 2 GOP primary to Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and Wood acknowledged, "It has become evident that there is not a realistic path to victory for me as an independent candidate."

● NH-Sen: State Senate President Chuck Morse has earned the backing of the NRA ahead of the Sept. 13 Republican primary to take on Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan. The organization, as we've written before, has dramatically diminished in recent years and it rarely spends much in primaries, but its stamp of approval can still give Republican office seekers a boost with conservatives.

● NV-Sen: Adam Laxalt is using his coordinated buy with the NRSC to air his very first TV spot since the mid-June primary, and he's far from the only Senate Republican candidate to only return to the airwaves months after winning the nomination. Pennsylvania's Mehmet Oz began running commercials in late July, while North Carolina's Ted Budd and Ohio's J.D. Vance, who also cleared their primaries in May, went up with general election spots this month; all three of these inaugural ads were also joint buys with the NRSC.

This Laxalt spot, reports NBC, has only $95,000 behind it, though that's still more than than the $65,000 he'd spent through Monday on general election digital and radio ads. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, by contrast, has dropped $6.5 million on advertising, while Democratic outside groups have outspent their GOP counterparts by a smaller $12.1 million to $10.9 million margin here.

Laxalt's commercial comes days after Cortez Masto portrayed the Republican as a spoiled outsider in a spot of her own that emulated the TV show "Succession." Laxalt tries to get his own narrative about his life across by telling the audience, "I was raised by a single mom with no college education. And as a kid, I didn't know who my father was." (His late father was New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici, who was married to another woman when Laxalt was conceived and had little presence in his life.) The candidate's wife also declares, "Everything he had to overcome helped make him a good man."

Governors

● CA-Gov: UC Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times: Gavin Newsom (D-inc): 55, Brian Dahle (R): 31

● MS-Gov: Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who is one of the most prominent Democrats in this dark red state, didn't rule anything out when Mississippi Today asked about his interest in challenging Republican Gov. Tate Reeves next year. Presley, who is also up for re-election in 2023, instead talked about his current role, saying, "I am concentrating on trying to get internet to every household in the state, trying to keep utility rates affordable during this time of high inflation."

● NY-Gov: SurveyUSA for WNYT: Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 55, Lee Zeldin (R): 31 (June: 52-28 Hochul)

House

● MI-08: It begins: The independent expenditure arm of the DCCC has released its first TV ad of the November general election, beating their counterparts at the NRCC to the airwaves.

The DCCC's spot attacks former Homeland Security official Paul Junge, the Republican nominee in Michigan's 8th Congressional District, on the number one issue of the midterms: abortion. The commercial, however, avoids the word. Instead, a series of female narrators castigates Junge: "I thought I'd always have the right to make my own health care decisions," the voiceover says. "But if Paul Junge gets his way … I won't." Saying that Junge opposes abortion even in the case of rape or incest, the narration continues, "I couldn't imagine a pregnancy forced on me after something horrible like that. But thanks to Paul Junge, I have to."

Junge is challenging five-term Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee, who saw his district in the Flint and Tri-Cities areas take on some new turf and grow a bit redder in redistricting. It also changed numbers: Biden won Kildee's old 5th by a 51-47 margin, but the redrawn 8th would have backed the president just 50-48. This part of the state has also moved sharply to the right on the presidential level over the last decade—in 2012, Barack Obama won the 5th District by more than 20 points—which is why it's a prime target for Republicans this year.

Democrats know this as well, which is why they're stepping in to aid Kildee. We don't yet know how much the DCCC is spending in this initial foray, but we will soon: Any group that makes an independent expenditure on behalf of a federal candidate must file a report with the FEC detailing its spending within 48 hours—and from Oct. 20 onward, within 24 hours. Those filings are all made available on the FEC's website.

That site will get plenty of clicks, because from here on out, we can expect hundreds of millions of dollars more in independent expenditures on House races, from official party organizations like the DCCC and NRCC, massive super PACs like the Democrats' House Majority PAC and the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund, and a whole bevy of groups large and small. But with the parties themselves now going up on TV, we can consider this the beginning of the end of the midterms.

● TN-05: Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell has publicized an internal from FrederickPolls that gives her a 51-48 lead over her Republican rival, Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, in a newly-gerrymandered constituency that Democrats are very pessimistic about holding. Democratic incumbent Jim Cooper decided to retire here after the GOP legislature transmuted his seat from a 60-37 Biden district to a 54-43 Trump constituency by cracking the city of Nashville, and no major outside groups on either side have reserved any ad time here.

Other races

● Los Angeles County, CA Sheriff: UC Berkeley, polling for the Los Angeles Times, finds former Long Beach Police Chief Robert Luna leading conservative Sheriff Alex Villanueva 31-27 in the November nonpartisan primary to serve as the top lawman for America's most populous county. This is the first survey we've seen since early June, when Villanueva outpaced Luna 31-26.

Villanueva made history in 2018 when he became the first Democrat to hold this office in 138 years, but while he still identifies as "a Democrat of the party of JFK and FDR," he's established a very different image in office. Villanueva instead has become a Fox News regular who, among many other things, has raged against the "woke left." The sheriff's department also has been at the center of numerous scandals, including allegations that deputies have organized themselves into violent gangs.

Luna, for his part, changed his voter registration from Republican to no party preference in 2018 before becoming a Democrat two years later. The county Democratic Party has endorsed the former Long Beach police chief for the general election after declining to back anyone for the first round, and all five members of the Board of Supervisors are also in his corner; Luna also has the endorsement of Eric Strong, a progressive who took third with 16%. The challenger has faulted the incumbent for having "mismanaged" the department and argued that he'll "modernize" it.

Despite his second-place showing, however, UC Berkeley finds that Luna is a blank slate to most voters. Respondents give Luna a 31-11 favorable rating, but a 59% majority says they don't have an opinion of the challenger. Villanueva, by contrast, is underwater with a 30-39 score, though 31% still weren't sure how they feel about him.

Ad Roundup

GA-Sen: One Nation - anti-Raphael Warnock (D-inc)
NV-Sen: One Nation - anti-Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc)
OH-Sen: One Nation - anti-Tim Ryan (D)
PA-Sen: John Fetterman (D)
WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) - anti-Tiffany Smiley (R)
WI-Sen: One Nation - pro-Ron Johnson (R-inc)
FL-Gov: Ron DeSantis (R-inc)
NM-Gov: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-inc)
RI-Gov: Dan McKee (D-inc)
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D)
IA-02: Liz Mathis (D)
IA-03: Zach Nunn (R)
MT-01: Monica Tranel (D)

Live coverage: Aug. 23 primaries, runoffs, and specials in Florida, New York, and Oklahoma

Posted on August 24, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

Three states are holding primaries tonight. Oklahoma voters already went to the polls on June 28, but the state is now hosting runoffs in primaries where no one took a majority of the vote. New York also held primaries that day for statewide races, the state Assembly, and local office, but because the courts redrew the maps for the U.S. House and state Senate, those nomination contests are only taking place now. The Empire State also will carry out special elections in the 19th and 23rd Congressional Districts.

Key races: Previews | Cheat-sheet ♦ Results: FL | NY | OK

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:32:44 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

As our primary night live coverage steams towards midnight on the East Coast, all eyes are now on the special election in NY-19. A number of pundits predicted a Republican win here, given the relative lack of spending on the Democratic side (the Dems might have been yielding to practicality: both candidates are prohibitive favorites in different districts come November) and a well-known name on the GOP side in former Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, who ran for Governor in 2018. Two polls, one by the DCCC and one by the left-leaning Data For Progress, both showed Molinaro leading Democrat Pat Ryan (the County Executive in Ulster County.

So, where are we?

With roughly 90% of the vote counted, in a mild upset, Democrat Pat Ryan has a 52-48 lead, a raw vote edge of about 4100 votes.
HOWEVER: Several counties appear to be still counting election day votes, which have strongly favored the Republican. In particular, Otsego County is sitting on an estimated 6000-7000 votes which will almost certainly lean to Molinaro.
BUT: The two leading Democratic districts have turned OUT, with Columbia County and Ulster County ranking first and third in turnout relative to the 2018 general election (Molinaro’s Dutchess County is second).
ALSO: There is an undetermined number of late-arriving mail ballots still waiting to arrive at county boards of elections, and they should favor Ryan.

So what does this all mean? It means this one is likely to be very close when all is said and done. And, in a Biden +2 district, to echo a refrain from past primary/special election coverage, this wouldn’t be happening in a “red wave” environment.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:37:09 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-19 Special: The GOP’s hopes just took a modest hit. Those election day votes (or at least a sizable percentage of them) have come in, and they only netted Marc Molinaro about 850 votes (this tranche of votes was about 8200 votes in total). Thus, Democrat Pat Ryan leads 51-49 overall, with a raw vote lead of just under 3300 votes.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:39:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-23 Special: Here is a (small) consolation for the Red team. Republican Joseph Sempolinski has pulled ahead of Democrat Max Della Pia by a 53-47 margin. It’s a small consolation, because this district favored Trump by a 55-43 margin in 2020.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:47:06 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-19 Special: ABC, NBC, and CBS have called the election for Democrat Pat Ryan. On paper, some will dismiss this as a Democrat holding onto a seat held by a Democratic Congressman (now-LG Antonio Delgado). But don’t let them fool you. This is a definite blow to the GOP, who threw quite a bit of money into this race, and does serious violence to the notion that Democrats are underdogs this year in districts with tenuous Biden leads (this was a Biden +2 district). And I will say it again for what feels like the 59th time: “red wave” years don’t usually look like this in the run-up to the election. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But a party which purportedly has all the momentum doesn’t cough up winnable races like this very often.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:55:54 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-23 (R): In the new (and heavily Republican) 23rd district left open by the retirement of Rep. Chris Jacobs, it looks like Carl Paladino’s attempt at a political second act may come up short. State party chair Nick Langworthy has now moved ahead of Paladino (who led most of the night) and holds a 52-48 lead over Paladino (a raw vote edge of about 2000 votes).

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:59:30 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-23 Special: Small consolation for Republicans, but the AP has made a call for Republican Joe Sempolinski, who will serve out the remainder of the term of Rep. Tom Reed, who resigned earlier in the year. Like NY-19, however, the margin is equal to or less than the 2020 presidential outcome. Sempolinski currently leads by six points in a 55-43 Trump district.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:02:18 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-24 (R): Missed this one in the NY-19 hullaballoo, but the AP did call this primary for incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney, who defeated Mario Fratto by a distinctly unimpressive 54-40 margin.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:11:55 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-19 Special: And there it is. The AP calls this special election for Democrat Pat Ryan. The GOP will spin tonight as status quo, with a 1-1 split. But, again, they spent money on this race with their best possible candidate. And they lost. What’s more: this district (at Biden +2) is actually not as amenable to the GOP as the NY-19 that Molinaro will try to win in November (which is Biden +4). Ryan, meanwhile, will be at least a modest favorite in the new NY-18, which is 53-45 Biden. A modest upset (the only two publicly released polls had Molinaro ahead), and a key boost to Democrats as they head towards November.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:15:32 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-03 (D): Others have undoubtedly exhausted every Bob Dylan reference available, but the AP has indeed called this Long Island district for DNC member Robert Zimmerman. Zimmerman will be a slight betting favorite to hold NY-03, which was left open by Tom Suozzi’s quixotic bid for Governor. He faces Robert Santos, who lost to Suozzi by double digits in 2020 in a marginally more Democratic district (NY-03 moved about three points in the direction of the GOP in redistricting).

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:24:50 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

So, we have three races that we’ve been tracking tonight that have yet to be called by AP:

NY-10 (D): This was effectively an open seat that Rep. Mondaire Jones ran in rather than dealing with fellow Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in a race that would probably have favored Maloney. Jones’ gamble, alas, was all for naught, as he is a distant third with 18% of the vote. The current leader is former Trump impeachment counsel Daniel Goldman, with 26% of the vote. State assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou is a close second with 24%, roughly 1300 votes behind in the raw vote. Late mail votes will almost certainly decide this one.
NY-22 (D): This one has moved very little as the night has wore on, with 2020 candidate Francis Conole leading fellow military veteran Sarah Hood by about four points (currently 40-36). The raw vote margin is just under 1100 votes and the total vote count is still a bit light, which is undoubtedly driving the reluctance of AP to call this one.
NY-23 (R): This one, unlike the first two, feels like it is done and is just waiting for AP to declare the decedent truly dead and gone. State Party Chair Nick Langworthy has a 52-48 lead over businessman Carl Paladino, last seen running a losing campaign for Governor a dozen years ago. The raw vote margin is 2000 votes, and with nearly 50,000 votes in the can, it’s pretty hard to see where Paladino makes a comeback.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:30:00 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

With that update, and the assumption that the two Democratic races are a bit unlikely to be called tonight, we will call it a night here at DK Elections. We have one more primary night left to share together: on September 13th, when the voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island have their say. After that, it’s on to November! Thanks for following along on a profoundly interesting night for elections junkies. And please check back tomorrow for more updates and analysis on all of tonight’s headlines. Have a great night!

Live coverage: Aug. 23 primaries, runoffs, and specials in Florida, New York, and Oklahoma

Posted on August 24, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

Key races: Previews | Cheat-sheet ♦ Results: FL | NY | OK

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:35:20 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

If you’re just checking in, welcome to one of the final nights of the 2022 primary season! Florida, as always, is counting with astounding pace, and we have updates from all over the Sunshine State. Oklahoma has just begun their counting, and New York is less than an hour away from their polls closing. Here is what has already happened on this very consequential election night:

In a primary that ultimately wound up being a bit of a rout, Congressman (and former Governor) Charlie Crist scored an easy win over state Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried (60-35) in the Democratic primary for FL-Gov.
In a primary that wound up being very much not a rout, right-wing extremist Laura Loomer, last seen getting dumped by 20 points in a House bid in 2020, wound up nearly defeating incumbent Rep. Dan Webster in the GOP primary in FL-11. With most of the vote tallied, Webster has hung on with a 51-44 win over Loomer.
In the Panhandle (FL-01), notorious incumbent Rep. Matt Gaetz was actually primaried to his right. Granted, there isn’t much real estate over there, which is probably why he has a considerable edge over Mark Lombardo (65-29).
In FL-10, the Orlando-area seat being vacated by Democratic Senate nominee Val Demings (who easily won her Senate primary over nominal opposition), gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost has a 34-25 lead over state Senator Randolph Bracy. Two former Democratic House members who have a certain level of notoriety (or infamy, some would say) are trailing well behind: Alan Grayson (16%) and Corinne Brown (10%).
Finally a few competitive primaries have already been decided, including FL-04 (R) in favor of state Senator Aaron Bean, FL-20 (D) in favor of incumbent Rep. Shiela Cherfilus-McCormick, and FL-23 (D) in favor of Broward County commissioner Jared Moskowitz.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:36:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

OK-Sen (R): Welp. That didn’t take long. Shortly after we hit the 10% reporting threshold, the AP called the Senate runoff for Republican Rep. Markwayne Mullin, who has a double-digit lead over T.W. Shannon.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:40:21 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Other recent AP calls that have just come in:

FL-15 (R): The AP calls for Trump endorsee and former Sec. of State Laurel Lee.
FL-01 (R): No shocker here, but Rep. Matt Gaetz is the projected winner after being primaried by wealthy opponent Mark Lombardo.
FL-07 (R): Veteran Cory Mills has saved us from Congressman Anthony Sabbatini (not that he is anyone’s idea of a moderate, so this is a small victory, at best). Mills has been declared the winner in this multi-candidate field, besting Sabbatini by about 15 points. This district now leans to the GOP after their aggressive gerrymandering of the region.
FL-13 (R): Anna Luna, the 2020 nominee in this district, has been declared the winner here, holding off several challengers.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:43:08 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-27 (D): Maybe the person at the AP decision desk here is enjoying a power nap, or something, because this one seems very much over and yet we lack a call here. State Sen. Annette Taddeo has a mammoth 69-26 lead over Ken Russell here. The winner takes on Republican freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in this very swingy (Trump 50-49) Miami-area district

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:53:16 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

OK-Sen: Quick bit of clarification, because the results widget is a bit deceiving. Remember that there are TWO Senate races in Oklahoma. The GOP primary tonight (won earlier by Rep. Markwayne Mullin) is the special election to replace Sen. Jim Inhofe, who is resigning as of January, 2023. Mullin will now face former Oklahoma City Rep. Kendra Horn in what is easily the more competitive of the two races (though it’d be a stretch to call either truly competitive, because Oklahoma).

Meanwhile, if you look at the results page, it has a Democrat named Madison Horn winning the Democratic runoff tonight. But that isn’t to face Mullin, that is to face Sen. Jim Lankford, who is seeking his normal re-election in November, as well.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:54:51 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-27 (D): The AP makes their call in favor of state Senator Annette Taddeo, who will now take on freshman GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in one of the more anticipated R-held House races in November.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:59:59 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-15 (D): The AP makes a call here for 2020 nominee Alan Cohn, who will face Republican Laurel Lee in November in this 51-48 Trump district.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:04:01 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-10 (D): And...wow. Props to Florida (a phrase you won’t see me use often). They managed to get every competitive race counted to the point of projection before New York could even hit their poll closing time (which happened just now). The AP calls this one for gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost, who at 25 will be the youngest member of Congress should he win in November. He will be strongly favored over Republican Calvin Wimbish in this 65-33 Biden seat.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:14:40 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-10 (D): We are well over the threshold in this open-seat and hotly-contested Democratic primary. Rep. Mondaire Jones is the nominal incumbent, but he moved a considerable distance to run here and he is a distant third as we speak. Right now, Trump impeachment counsel Daniel Goldman has a 27-22 lead over assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou. Jones is third with 18%.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:17:30 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-12 (D): This incumbent-on-incumbent primary between two longtime Democratic veterans of the House is not all that close in the early counting. Rep. Jerry Nadler holds a 56-27 lead over Rep. Carolyn Maloney. Young attorney Suraj Patel, who released a late poll showing him in contention, is a distant third at 16%.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:21:47 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-11 (R): I am not an oddsmaker but this had to be the easiest bet of the evening:

“I’M NOT CONCEDING!” Laura Loomer attacks the Republican Party and alleges voter fraud after losing GOP primary to incumbent Florida congressman Daniel Webster. #news6 pic.twitter.com/qpuhJUIpyJ
— Mike DeForest (@DeForestNews6) August 24, 2022

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:29:54 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-03 (D): We’ve hit the reporting threshold in the open seat in the light-blue 3rd district on Long Island, where the times they are a-changing away from Tom Suozzi. DNC member Robert Zimmerman is currently knockin’ on the House’s door; he’s leading Jon Kaiman 43-22, with 15% reporting.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:33:27 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-23 (R): We’ve also hit the threshold in the GOP primary in the dark-red 23rd district in upstate New York, where unfortunately the objectionable Carl Paladino is leading Nick Longworthy 60-40 with 15% reporting. This seat is open with the abrupt retirement of freshman Chris Jacobs.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:37:07 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-19 (special): You may have noticed that in the special election for the last few months of service in the very swingy 19th district (left vacant by Antonio Delgado’s promotion to Lt. Governor), the Democrat, Pat Ryan has a pretty commanding lead, 70-30, with 24% reporting! Don’t get too attached to this result, which would be a stunning upset if true. It looks like most of the votes reported so far are from Ulster County, which is Pat Ryan’s home turf. Republican Marc Molinaro would reasonably be expected to pull back into the lead later, though Ryan still seems well positioned to make this race pretty close in the end.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:40:22 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-16 (D): Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman faced a credible primary challenge from several suburban county legislators, after his district’s center of gravity shifted quite a bit to the north. Bowman is still holding on pretty easily, though leading Vedat Gashi 63-21 with 20% reporting.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:42:03 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-12 (D): Wow, this was very fast (by anyone’s standards, let alone New York’s)! The AP has already called the incumbent-on-incumbent battle royale in favor of Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler, who wound up winning pretty easily over colleague Carolyn Maloney. With 49% reporting, it’s Nadler at 56, Maloney at 25, and Suraj Patel at 18.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:47:03 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-04 (D): One more open seat in a light blue Long Island district to mention, this time the 4th district, where Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice surprisingly retired. This one didn’t turn out to be too competitive, though, with former Hempstead supervisor Laura Gillen leading county legislator Carrie Solages 68-17 with 17% reporting in the Democratic primary.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:50:17 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-10 (D): Meanwhile, in the 10th district in Manhattan (open because Reps. Nadler and Maloney both insisted on taking the 12th), we’ve got a super close race, still not decided even with 99% reporting. Former federal prosecutor Daniel Goldman currently leads state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou 25.2 to 24.2 (or 14,142 votes to 13,554 if you prefer.) They’re followed by Rep. Mondaire Jones at 18%, who has to be kicking himself for making the trek down to the city instead of facing off against Democratic colleague Sean Patrick Maloney in the suburbs.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:53:00 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-17 (D): Speaking of which, Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s primary challenge from state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (whose own district overlaps none of the 17th), which came about after Maloney bumped Mondaire Jones out of this turf, didn’t turn out to be too eventful. The AP has called this race for Maloney, who currently leads Biaggi 66-34 with 41% reporting.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:55:42 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

OK-02 (R): Here’s the last loose end from the Sooner State; the AP has called the Republican runoff for this open seat in favor of ex-state Sen. Josh Brecheen, who defeats state Rep. Avery Frix, and will undoubtedly be headed to the House in this dark red district.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:59:24 AM +00:00 · David Nir

The liveblog continues here.

Primary preview: Two of the nation’s biggest states are nominating candidates on Tuesday

Posted on August 23, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

Tuesday brings us our biggest election night until November as three states go to the polls to select their nominees for November, though only Florida is holding its first (and only) primary of the year.

Oklahoma voters already went to the polls on June 28, but the state is now hosting runoffs in primaries where no one took a majority of the vote. New York also held primaries that day for statewide races, the state Assembly, and local office, but because the courts redrew the maps for the U.S. House and state Senate, those nomination contests are only taking place now. The Empire State also will carry out special elections in the 19th and 23rd Congressional Districts.

Below you'll find our guide to all of the top contests, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

And of course, because this is a redistricting year, every state on the docket has a brand-new congressional map. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Florida, New York, and Oklahoma.

Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall, except for the special elections in New York’s 19th and 23rd, which are being conducted using the existing boundaries. (The regularly scheduled primaries for both seats are taking place simultaneously, but under the new map.) And if you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.

Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET when polls close in most of Florida, a state that is typically one of the fastest to count votes. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for the remaining primaries of the year.

Florida

Polls close at 7 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where most Floridians live. Polls close an hour later in the remainder of the state.

● FL-Gov (D) (51-48 Trump): Rep. Charlie Crist and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried are the chief Democratic contenders to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will enter the general election with a massive $135 million war chest.

Crist, who was elected governor in 2006 as a Republican and narrowly lost the 2014 general election to reclaim his prior post following his party switch, has outspent Fried and earned endorsements from several prominent labor groups. Fried, though, has used the last weeks of the campaign to highlight her opponent’s political past, including Crist's appointment of an anti-abortion judge to the state’s highest court. Almost every poll, including a Fried internal from early August, has shown Crist ahead, though an independent survey from the final days put Fried up 47-43.

● FL-01 (R) (65-33 Trump): Rep. Matt Gaetz, the far-right icon who remains under federal investigation for sex trafficking of a minor and other alleged offenses, faces a challenge from self-funder Mark Lombardo. The other Republican candidate in the running is Greg Merk, who took 9% in Gaetz’s uncompetitive 2020 primary. This constituency in the Pensacola area barely changed under the new map.

Lombardo has used his personal wealth to run an ad blitz highlighting Gaetz’s travails; one ad during the final week even speculated, without evidence, that Gaetz might be the government informant who prompted the FBI's raid of Mar-a-Lago. The congressman, though, has outspent Lombardo, whom he’s accused of being a “liberal.”

● FL-04 (R) (53-46 Trump): Three Republicans are campaigning for an open seat that includes part of Jacksonville and its western suburbs, though state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean very much looks like the frontrunner.

Bean, who has the backing of Sen. Marco Rubio and Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, posted a huge 59-16 lead over Navy veteran Erick Aguilar in an independent poll from early August, with underfunded rival Jon Chuba at 6%. That survey was taken weeks after Aguilar was thrown off the GOP fundraising platform WinRed for sending out deceptive appeals that appeared to be from better-known Republicans. Former state Sen. Tony Hill and businesswoman LaShonda Holloway are campaigning on the Democratic side, but both have struggled to bring in cash.

● FL-07 (R) (52-47 Trump): Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy announced her retirement months before Republicans transformed her suburban Orlando district from a 55-44 Biden constituency to one that supported Trump by 5 points, and eight Republicans are in the running to replace her. Four Democrats are also on the ballot, but none of them have raised much money.

The only sitting elected official in the race is state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, a far-right zealot who has a terrible relationship with his chamber's leadership. Sabatini has been on the receiving end of heavy spending from outside groups that fault him for voting against Gov. Ron DeSantis’ budget and for having once been a registered Democrat.

The other two candidates who have brought in serious sums are Army veteran Cory Mills and Navy veteran Brady Duke, who have each run ads implicitly threatening violence against liberals. The field also includes former DeBary City Commissioner Erika Benfield, who lost a competitive state House primary in 2020; former Orange County Commissioner Ted Edwards, who is campaigning as a moderate; former congressional staffer Rusty Roberts; and businessman Scott Sturgill, who lost the 2018 primary for the old 7th.

● FL-10 (D) (65-33 Biden): Ten Democrats are campaigning to succeed Rep. Val Demings, who is running for the Senate, in this safely blue Orlando constituency, including two former House members who jumped in just before filing closed in June.

One of them is former 9th District Rep. Alan Grayson, a bombastic frequent candidate who decided to end his little-noticed Senate bid to run here. The other relatively recent arrival is former 5th District Rep. Corrine Brown, whose launch came about a month after she accepted a deal with federal prosecutors that saw her plead guilty to tax fraud. Brown represented part of the Orlando area during her tenure from 1993 to 2017 even though her longtime Jacksonville base is located well to the north, but she’s raised little for her comeback campaign.

The top fundraiser by far is gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost, who has also benefited from about $1 million in support from the crypto-aligned Protect Our Future PAC. State Sen. Randolph Bracy, meanwhile, is the one current elected official in the race. The field also features pastor Terence Gray and five others. A last-minute poll from the Democratic firm Data for Progress found Frost leading Bracy 34-18, with Grayson at 14% and Brown at 6%; all others were in the low single digits and 15% were undecided.

● FL-11 (R) (55-44 Trump): Six-term Rep. Dan Webster faces Republican primary opposition from far-right activist Laura Loomer, a self-described "proud Islamophobe" who has been banned from numerous social media, rideshare, and payment services for spreading bigotry. One other little-known Republican is also competing here.

Webster only represents 35% of this new constituency in the western Orlando suburbs, which includes the gargantuan retirement community of The Villages. Still, he’s a far more familiar presence here than Loomer, who ran a high-profile but doomed 2020 bid against Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel in South Florida.

● FL-13 (R) (53-46 Trump): Five Republicans are competing to replace Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist in a St. Petersburg-based district the GOP aggressively gerrymandered. The winner will go up against former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, who is the one Democrat in the running.

The early GOP frontrunner was 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna, who sports endorsements from Trump and the Club for Growth. Her two main opponents are Amanda Makki, a former lobbyist who Luna beat in last cycle’s primary, and attorney Kevin Hayslett. Hayslett and his allies have run an aggressive campaign against Luna, an effort that includes a clip of her saying “I always agreed with President Obama's immigration policies.” Luna and the Club in turn have gone after Hayslett for criticizing Trump in 2016. A recent independent poll shows Luna leading Hayslett 37-34, with Makki at 14%.

● FL-15 (R & D) (51-48 Trump): Each party has five candidates running for a brand-new seat in the Tampa suburbs, created because Florida won a new seat in reapportionment. On the GOP side, the two elected officials in the running are state Sen. Kelli Stargel, who is an ardent social conservative, and state Rep. Jackie Toledo, who has prevailed on competitive turf.

Another notable contender is former Secretary of State Laurel Lee, who recently resigned to run and was previously elected as a local judge before DeSantis chose her as Florida's top elections administration official. Rounding out the field are retired Navy Capt. Mac McGovern and Demetrius Grimes, a fellow Navy veteran who lost the 2018 Democratic primary for the old 26th District in South Florida. Outside groups promoting both Stargel and Lee have also been spending plenty of money here, with Stargel’s allies launching a late attack on Lee for not performing a “forensic audit of the 2020 election.”

For the Democrats, the most familiar name is probably Alan Cohn, a former local TV anchor who lost the 2020 general election to Republican Scott Franklin in the previous version of the 15th. (Franklin is seeking the new 18th.) Comedian Eddie Geller, though, has brought in more money for his campaign, while the other three contenders have barely raised anything.

● FL-20 (D) (76-23 Biden): Freshman Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick faces a Democratic primary rematch against former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, whom she beat by all of five votes in last year's crowded special election. State Rep. Anika Omphroy is also in, but she hasn’t reported raising anything. About three-quarters of this constituency, which is located in the inland Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach areas, is the same turf that Cherfilus-McCormick and Holness competed for last year.

Cherfilus-McCormick and Holness have attacked one another’s ethics, though they haven’t differed much on policy. The new incumbent has decisively outraised her main opponent, and the SEIU has endorsed her this time after pulling for Holness in the special.

● FL-23 (D) (56-43 Biden): Rep. Ted Deutch is retiring from a Fort Lauderdale-based seat that's very similar to the 22nd District he currently serves, and six fellow Democrats are on the ballot to succeed him.

The frontrunner from the beginning has been Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz, a well-connected former state representative who later served in Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration as director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Moskowitz, who has raised considerably more money than the rest of the field, has endorsements from several unions, and he’s also received help from two crypto-aligned PACs. His main rival appears to be Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen, who has tried to tie Moskowitz to the ultra-conservative governor.

● FL-27 (D) (50-49 Trump): Republican mapmakers did what they could to insulate freshman GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar by shifting her Miami-area seat to the right, but two local Democratic elected officials are still betting she’s beatable. National Democrats, including the DCCC, have consolidated behind state Sen. Annette Taddeo, who dropped out of the governor's race in June to run here. Her main intraparty rival is Miami Commissioner Ken Russell, who abandoned his own long-shot Senate bid, while an underfunded activist named Angel Montalvo rounds out the field.

Oklahoma

Polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time.

● OK-Sen-B (R) (65-32 Trump): Rep. Markwayne Mullin lapped former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon 44-18 in the first round of the special election primary to succeed Sen. Jim Inhofe, whose resignation takes effect at the end of this Congress, and he looks well-positioned for the runoff. Mullin earned Trump’s endorsement in July, while Gov. Kevin Stitt backed him in the final week of the contest. Recent polls have given Mullin double-digit leads.

● OK-02 (R) (76-22 Trump): State Rep. Avery Frix edged out former state Sen. Josh Brecheen 15-14 in an enormous 14-person primary to replace Markwayne Mullin in Eastern Oklahoma's 2nd District, and neither man has a clear edge going into the second round. A PAC affiliated with the Club for Growth has spent heavily to promote Brecheen, who is a former Club fellow, while Frix has support from his own allies. Brecheen also has the backing of four defeated primary candidates who notched a combined 30%.

New York

Polls close at 9 PM ET. Below we lead with New York's two special elections, followed by Tuesday's primaries.

● NY-19 (special) (50-48 Biden): This swing seat in the Hudson Valley unexpectedly became vacant in the spring when Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado as lieutenant governor, and each party has nominated a different county executive to run here.

The Democrats are fielding Pat Ryan, an Army veteran who was elected to lead Ulster County after losing the 2018 primary to Delgado, while Republicans are going with Marc Molinaro of Dutchess County, who was the GOP's 2018 candidate for governor. Though Molinaro lost that race to then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a 60-36 landslide, he carried the 19th by a wide 53-42. (Ulster, by the way, makes up a quarter of the old 19th, while Dutchess comprises 17% of the district.)

Ryan and his allies have made abortion rights the centerpiece of their campaign; the GOP, in contrast, has focused on tying him to the Biden administration and portraying Ryan as weak on public safety issues. National Republicans have spent far more money here than their Democratic counterparts, and even a recent DCCC internal found Molinaro ahead 46-43.

The two rivals could end up serving together in a few months, as Ryan is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for the new 18th District while Molinaro faces no intraparty opposition in the redrawn 19th.

● NY-23 (special) (55-43 Trump): A special election is also taking place to succeed Republican Rep. Tom Reed, who resigned to join a lobbying firm a year after he was accused of sexual misconduct, but there it’s attracted little attention. The Republicans have picked Steuben County Party Chair Joe Sempolinski, who isn’t running for a full term anywhere. Democrats, meanwhile, have turned to Air Force veteran Max Della Pia, who is competing for a full term in the revamped 23rd District.

● NY-01 (R) (49.4-49.2 Biden): Three Republicans are facing off to succeed Rep. Lee Zeldin, who is the GOP’s nominee for governor, in an eastern Long Island constituency that moved a few points to the left under the new court-drawn congressional map. For months it looked like this would be an easy win for Nick LaLota, who serves as chief of staff of the Suffolk County Legislature and has the backing of the county’s Republican and conservative parties, but that’s no longer the case.

LaLota’s main adversary is cryptocurrency trader Michelle Bond, who has used her personal wealth to decisively outspend him. Bond has also gotten $1 million in outside help from several groups, including a PAC that just happens to be funded by her boyfriend, crypto notable Ryan Salame. LaLota has pushed back and run ads calling Bond as a “liberal D.C. lobbyist” who lives in a Beltway-area mansion. The third candidate is government relations firm executive Anthony Figliola, though he's attracted little money or attention.

The winner will go up against Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, who has the Democratic primary to herself.

● NY-03 (D) (53-45 Biden): Five fellow Democrats are competing in a pricey battle to succeed Rep. Tom Suozzi, who gave up this northern Nassau County seat to campaign in the primary against Gov. Kathy Hochul only to lose badly, both statewide and at home. The GOP is running 2020 nominee George Santos, whom Suozzi beat 56-43 last time as Biden was carrying the old 3rd 55-44.

Two contenders have considerably more resources than the rest of the field. Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan, who is campaigning as a moderate, has Suozzi’s endorsement, and he’s gotten some help from Protect Our Future PAC. The other well-funded candidate is DNC member Robert Zimmerman, a longtime party fundraiser who would be Long Island’s first gay member of Congress.

The field also includes two people who have lost past Democratic primaries to Suozzi. One is Jon Kaiman, a deputy Suffolk County executive who competed in the 2016 open-seat contest and has the support of the influential 32BJ SEIU building workers union. The other familiar name is Melanie D'Arrigo, who challenged the congressman from the left last cycle and lost 66-26. D'Arrigo has the backing of the Working Families Party, which has long been a force in New York progressive politics, but she’s struggled to bring in cash. The final candidate is marketing consultant Reema Rasool, who has raised very little.

● NY-04 (D) (57-42 Biden): Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice unexpectedly decided to retire after four terms, and there’s a five-way Democratic primary to replace her in this southern Nassau County district. Team Blue’s nominee will go up against Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito, who is the only Republican running here.

Rice and 32BJ SEIU are backing Laura Gillen, who was elected as Hempstead's first Democratic supervisor in more than a century in 2017 but lost reelection two years later. The only other well-funded contender is Keith Corbett, who is arguing that his election as mayor of the small and traditionally Republican village of Malverne proves his bipartisan appeal; one of Corbett’s top allies is Jay Jacobs, the controversial head of the state and county parties. Nassau County Legislator Carrié Solages and two other candidates are also in, but none of them have raised much.

● NY-10 (D) (85-15 Biden): Democrats have an expensive and closely watched contest for the dramatically revamped 10th District based in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn. Rep. Mondaire Jones, who currently represents the 17th District well to the north of the city in the Hudson Valley, decided to run here in order to avoid a primary against DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, but he faces a difficult battle nonetheless.

Among the many other major contenders here is former federal prosecutor Dan Goldman, who served as House Democrats' lead counsel during Donald Trump's first impeachment. Goldman, who is an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, has pumped $4 million of his own money into his campaign, and he’s dominated the airwaves during the campaign; he also earned an endorsement in the final weeks from The New York Times, which is an influential presence in this district. But Jones, who is the only other candidate who has been able to advertise on TV, has hit his rival over an interview in which Goldman initially seemed open to curtailing abortion rights before reversing himself.

The field also includes New York City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, who has several notable endorsements of her own. Rivera has the backing of 7th District Rep. Nydia Velazquez, who represents just under half of this new constituency, and the health care workers union 1199 SEIU, which is one of the most powerful labor organizations in city politics. Also in the running are Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, who has the Working Families Party on her side; fellow Assemblywoman Jo Anne Simon; and Elizabeth Holtzman, who is trying to return to the House after what would be a record 42-year gap.

There have been a number of polls of the race, but they've generally shown a very jumbled picture, with no candidate breaking out of the teens.

● NY-12 (D) (85-14 Biden): New York's new congressional boundaries have placed Manhattan’s Upper East Side and Upper West Side in the same district for the first time since World War I and resulted in a face-off between two 30-year incumbents, Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler. The primary also includes attorney Suraj Patel, who challenged Maloney in 2018 and 2020, and one little-known contender.

Maloney's existing 12th District in the Upper East Side makes up about 60% of this new seat, while Nadler's 10th in the Upper West Side forms another 40%. However, while Nadler was safe at home before redistricting upended the map, Maloney only held off Patel 43-39 in their last bout.

The candidates haven’t differed on any major policy issues, but Maloney has argued that the end of Roe v. Wade makes it more important than ever to have a woman in office. Nadler, meanwhile, has highlighted how he’s New York’s only remaining Jewish representative, while Patel has campaigned as a generational change agent.

An early August poll for a pro-Patel group had Nadler edging out Maloney 29-27, with Patel at 20%. After that survey was taken, though, Nadler earned endorsements from both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and The New York Times, which joined 1199 SEIU in his corner.

● NY-16 (D) (71-28 Biden): Rep. Jamaal Bowman was elected to represent southern Westchester County two years ago after unseating longtime Rep. Elliot Engel in the primary, and he now faces two members of the county legislature who hope to do the same thing to him.

Bowman’s main adversary looks like Vedat Gashi, who is presenting himself as a more moderate alternative to the progressive incumbent. Gashi has the backing of Engel, who represented 75% of the new iteration of the 16th at the time Bowman beat him, and he’s brought in a notable amount of money for his bid. Gashi’s colleague, Catherine Parker, launched her own bid in late May, but she’s struggled with fundraising. Rounding out the field is Mark Jaffe, who fared badly in a 2020 primary for the Assembly.

● NY-17 (D) (54-44 Biden): Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who heads the DCCC, is locked in a primary duel against state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, who is trying to run to his left. Maloney represents only about a quarter of this new constituency in the lower Hudson Valley, and Biaggi has taken him to task for running here rather than defending the more competitive 18th District that’s home to most of his current constituents.

Biaggi, though, currently serves none of this seat, and she doesn’t have anything approaching the incumbent’s resources. Maloney has the endorsement of Bill Clinton, who lives in the new 17th, while 14th District Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Working Families Party are pulling for the challenger. The winner will likely go up against Assemblyman Mike Lawler, who appears to be the leading candidate in the GOP primary.

● NY-19 (D) (51-47 Biden): Two Democrats are campaigning to face Republican Marc Molinaro, who is competing in the aforementioned special election for the old 19th District. A bit under half of the new version of this constituency, which is based in southeastern upstate New York, overlaps with the seat Molinaro is running for on Tuesday. One of the Democratic contenders is attorney Josh Riley, who had been running for the 22nd District in the Syracuse area until May. His opponent is businesswoman Jamie Cheney, who has run ads discussing how she had an abortion a decade ago.

● NY-22 (D & R) (53-45 Biden): Both parties have contested primaries to succeed Republican Rep. John Katko in a seat that contains the Syracuse and Utica areas. The only Democrat who has raised a serious amount of money is Navy veteran Francis Conole, who lost the 2020 primary to take on Katko in the old 24th District. Protect Our Future has also deployed over $500,000 to support Conole, while there has been no outside spending for any of his rivals, who include Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood, Syracuse Common Councilor Chol Majok, and former Assemblyman Sam Roberts.

The GOP side pits businessman Steve Wells, who lost the 2016 primary to now-Rep. Claudia Tenney in the old 22nd, against Navy veteran Brandon Williams. National Republicans are very much rooting for the self-funding Wells, as the Congressional Leadership Fund is running commercials to support him.

● NY-23 (R) (58-40 Trump): Freshman GOP Rep. Chris Jacobs abruptly decided to retire in June after coming out in favor of gun safety measures following the mass shooting in Buffalo, and two prominent Republicans are facing off to replace him. The early frontrunner was developer Carl Paladino, the proto-Trump who served as the 2010 Republican nominee for governor and has a long and ongoing history of bigoted outbursts. Paladino’s opponent is Nick Langworthy, who has retained his position as state party chair during the campaign.

Paladino has used his wealth to massively outspend Langworthy, and he released an internal in mid-July that showed him winning by a lopsided 54-24 margin. An independent survey conducted by veteran pollster Barry Zeplowitz weeks later, though, put Langworthy ahead 39-37. Paladino characteristically trashed Zeplowitz for donating $99 to his rival and claimed he had “no credibility,” but he didn’t respond with contrary numbers. The winner will face Democrat Max Della Pia, who as noted above is also running in Tuesday's special election for the old 23rd. (Neither Jacobs nor Paladino sought the GOP nod for the special.)

Morning Digest: The GOP shouldn’t have to bail out JD Vance, yet it’s pouring $28 million into Ohio

Posted on August 19, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

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● OH-Sen: The conservative Senate Leadership Fund announced Thursday that it was reserving―cue the Dr. Evil Voice―28 million dollars in TV and radio time for after Labor Day to help Republican J.D. Vance fend off Democrat Paul Ryan in a contest where national Republicans likely expected to spend $0 just a short while ago.

Campaign Action

But Vance, who won the May primary shortly after getting Trump’s endorsement, has spent months dealing with articles detailing his fellow Republicans' complaints about his campaign, or lack of it. “The Republican faithful are telling me they can't find J.D. Vance with a search warrant,” conservative radio host Bill Cunningham told the Daily Beast in July. Fellow talk radio presenter Ron Verb was even less kind, griping, “I think he’s running the worst campaign that you could possibly run,” while one GOP operative said to NBC, “They are burning bridges faster than they can build them.”

Republicans also fretted about Vance’s underwhelming fundraising numbers from the second quarter of 2022, with one unnamed source telling the Daily Beast, “When the fundraising numbers came out, it’s full-on panic now.” It took another month, though, for prominent GOP groups to set their panic level to full-on even as Ryan and his allies released several polls showing him ahead in a state that Trump decisively carried twice.

The NRSC and Vance a few weeks ago launched a coordinated buy for $1 million to help the nominee air his first ad since he won the nomination, while its allies at One Nation devoted $3.8 million towards attacking Ryan. SLF’s investment, however, marks a dramatic escalation here: Indeed, NBC notes that the super PAC so far has devoted more money to only two other Senate contests, Georgia and Pennsylvania. SLF is almost certainly hoping that its $28 million offensive will at least be enough to sink Ryan and take this race off the map.

Even if it does, though, the damage may go far beyond Ohio: As one national GOP operative told NBC, “Every dollar spent on his race is a dollar not spent in a more competitive state.” That’s also an especially big sacrifice for Team Red to make now that SLF’s allies at the NRSC have needed to cut planned TV time in other races in the face of fundraising issues.

Senate

● CO-Sen: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is going up with his first negative ad against Republican Joe O'Dea, focusing on abortion rights. Bennet's commercial touts his work protecting abortion access while chastising O'Dea for opposing such measures and stating he would have voted to confirm Donald Trump's and George W. Bush's Supreme Court appointees, who were responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade.

● NC-Sen, NC Supreme Court: Republican firm Cygnal, polling on behalf of the conservative John Locke Foundation, has surveyed North Carolina's hotly contested statewide races and finds the Senate election tied 42-42 between Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Ted Budd. That's an improvement for Beasley compared to Cygnal's previous poll in June, which had Budd ahead 45-40.

Looking further down the ballot at the state Supreme Court, Cygnal finds Republican attorney Trey Allen leading Democratic Justice Sam Ervin IV 45-40, which is a drop from Allen's 49-39 lead in June. In the other contest for an open Democratic-held seat, Republican Richard Dietz holds a similar 45-39 edge over Democrat Lucy Inman, a fellow Court of Appeals judge, which is also a modest gain for Democrats compared to Diet's 49-38 advantage two months ago. Democrats currently hold a 4-3 majority on the high court, but Republicans would flip it if they win either seat up this November.

● OK-Sen-B: The Republican pollster Amber Integrated's first, and probably last, look at Tuesday's GOP primary runoff shows Rep. Markwayne Mullin beating former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon 49-31. Mullin also got some extra welcome news this week when he earned the backing of Gov. Kevin Stitt.

Governors

● AZ-Gov: An RGA ad attacking Democrat Katie Hobbs on immigration earlier this month featured a purported "advocate for human trafficking victims" who castigated Hobbs for enabling human traffickers to cross the border, but the Arizona Mirror reports that the woman identified as Traci Hansen has no involvement with actual anti-trafficking groups. Instead, Hansen has ties to QAnon activists, who have made false claims about human trafficking a centerpiece of their conspiracy theories, and participated in a march at the state capitol organized by a local QAnon adherent.

● MI-Gov: The bipartisan duo of Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research have conducted a poll for the AARP that finds Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leading 51-46 over newly minted Republican nominee Tudor Dixon, marking their first foray into this year's contest. This result is notably closer than the few others released by other pollsters this year, who had found Whitmer similarly close to 50% but her opponent with significantly less support while the GOP primary was ongoing and Dixon was still getting her name out.

House

● FL-01: While wealthy businessman Mark Lombardo has used most of his ads to remind GOP primary voters about the ongoing federal sex trafficking investigation against incumbent Matt Gaetz, his new commercial speculates without evidence that Gaetz is "the informant" who talked to the FBI ahead of its Mar-a-Lago search.

The narrator begins, "When Trump really endorses someone, he goes big. You've seen none of that for lying Matt Gaetz." After asking what Trump knows about the congressman, she continues, "Is Gaetz the informant? Gaetz hired Jeffrey Epstein's attorney. Another Epstein attorney approved the raid on Trump's house." The commercial tries to bring it back to Gaetz by arguing, "Remember, Gaetz pressured Trump to give him a pardon, but Trump said no."

Gaetz, for his part, is airing his own spot that utilizes clips of Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis praising him to the stars. While this piece is unlikely to generate anywhere near as much attention as Lombardo's commercial, more viewers in this Pensacola-area district may see it on their televisions: NBC reports that the incumbent has so far outspent his self-funding opponent $1 million to $400,000 on TV.

● NH-01: A pair of newly released polls by Republican firms find 2020 GOP nominee Matt Mowers, who has the support of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, with a sizable edge over former White House staffer Karoline Leavitt ahead of the Sept. 13 Republican primary.

The first poll, by the Tarrance Group for the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, has Mowers beating Leavitt 37-13 with 10% for state Rep. Tim Baxter, 8% for former TV reporter Gail Huff Brown, and 6% for former state Executive Councilor Russell Prescott. The second poll by co/efficient on behalf of the conservative-leaning NH Journal has Mowers ahead by a similar 31-16 margin while Baxter earned 9%, Brown took 8%, and Prescott notched just 3%.

These two polls stand in sharp contrast with a recent Saint Anselm College survey that found Mowers ahead of Leavitt just 25-21.

● NY-10, NY-12: Donald Trump tried to troll Democrats in the 10th and 12th Districts on Wednesday evening by "endorsing" Dan Goldman, who was the House Democrats' lead counsel during his first impeachment, and Rep. Carolyn Maloney in their respective Aug. 23 primaries. Trump also sarcastically praised Maloney's main foe, fellow incumbent Jerry Nadler, writing, "You can't go wrong with either, but Carolyn Maloney is the better man." Congresswoman Maloney and Goldman both responded by making it clear how much they despised Trump, with Goldman calling it "a pathetic attempt at fooling Democrats who are far smarter than Trump is."

However, several of Goldman's intra-party foes―17th District Rep. Mondaire Jones and Assemblywomen Yuh-Line Niou and Jo Anne Simon―acted as though they believed Trump really was supporting their opponent; attorney Suraj Patel, who is trying to unseat both Maloney and Nadler, also said this shows "Donald Trump is scared of a younger, more dynamic Democratic Party." Two notable 10th District candidates, former Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman and New York City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, avoided bringing the matter up.

Rivera is also getting some late support in the final days from Nuestro PAC, a group devoted to reaching out to Latino voters. The PAC is spending $500,000 on a TV and digital effort for Rivera, who like most of the field has not been airing TV spots herself in the ultra-expensive New York City media market.

● NY-22: NBC reports that the Congressional Leadership Fund is spending another $170,000 to boost businessman Steve Wells in next week's Republican primary on top of the $350,000 it's already deployed on his behalf. Wells faces Navy veteran Brandon Williams, who has brought in considerably less money, for the nomination in a Syracuse-based seat Biden would have carried 53-44.

Mayors

● San Jose, CA Mayor: In a surprise, Santa Clara County Supervisor Cindy Chavez earned a general election endorsement this week from City Councilwoman Dev Davis, who finished third in the June nonpartisan primary with 10% of the vote. The move was unexpected because Chavez and Davis hail from opposite political factions: Chavez is a longtime labor leader, albeit one who has influential supporters in the business community, while Davis has aligned with business groups.

Chavez' general election foe is City Councilman Matt Mahan, who has a similar voting record as Davis, and the defeated candidate acknowledged that "if it was only a question of similar views, my choice would have been easier—and it would have gone the other way." Davis, though, noted that Mahan had only been elected in 2020 and argued, "No successful large business hires an inexperienced businessperson to lead them. As voters in one of America's largest cities, we have to acknowledge that political leadership experience matters too."

Mahan earned an endorsement as well from termed-out Mayor Sam Liccardo, but the incumbent has long made it clear that Mahan is his guy. Indeed, Liccardo's PAC spent heavily to help Mahan in June, though Chavez ultimately outpaced the councilman 39-32 in the first round.

Ad Roundup

NV-Sen: Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) - anti-Adam Laxalt (R)
PA-Sen: American Leadership Action - anti-John Fetterman (D)
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R-inc) - anti-Mandela Barnes (D)
MI-Gov: DGA - anti-Tudor Dixon (R)
MN-Gov: Foundation for Minnesota’s Future - anti-Tim Walz (D-inc)
OK-Gov: Joy Hofmeister (D)
FL-13: Stand for Florida - anti-Anna Paulina Luna (R)
MI-08: Dan Kildee (D-inc) - anti-Paul Junge (R)
NJ-07: Tom Kean Jr. (R) - anti-Tom Malinowski (D-inc)
NY-19 (special): Marc Molinaro (R) - anti-Pat Ryan (D)
NY-23: Carl Paladino (R) - anti-Nick Langworthy (R)
NY-23: Langworthy (R) - anti-Paladino (R)

Morning Digest: Liz Cheney goes down in defeat, but Sarah Palin’s comeback campaign is unresolved

Posted on August 17, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

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● WY-AL, AK-AL: Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney lost Tuesday’s Republican primary 66-29 to Trump-backed attorney Harriet Hageman, but we’re going to need to wait another two weeks to learn who prevailed in Alaska’s instant-runoff special election to succeed the late Republican Rep. Don Young.

With 150,000 ballots tabulated early Wednesday, which the Associated Press estimates represents 69% of the total vote, former Democratic state Rep. Mary Peltola leads with 38% as two Republicans, former reality TV show star Sarah Palin and businessman Nick Begich III, grab 32% and 29%, respectively; the balance is made up of write-in votes.

The Last Frontier allows mail-in ballots postmarked by election day to be counted if they're received through the end of the month, so these margins may shift: State election officials say they plan to have updated results on Aug. 23 and Aug. 26, with final numbers on Aug. 31. After all the votes are tabulated, officials will conduct an instant runoff to reallocate the third-place finisher's votes to the two remaining candidates.

No matter what, though, Peltola, Palin, and Begich will all be on the ballot again in the November instant-runoff election for a full two-year term along with one other competitor. (This special election only had three candidates because independent Al Gross dropped out shortly after taking third in the June special top-four primary.)

Tuesday was also the day that Alaska held its top-four primaries for statewide and legislative offices, and the results of the House race so far closely resemble the special tallies: Peltola is in first with 35%, Palin second with 31%, and Begich third at 27%. Another Republican, former state Interior Department official Tara Sweeney, leads Libertarian Chris Bye 4-1 for fourth, but the AP has not called the final spot in the general.

While it will take some time to know the winner in Alaska, though, there was no suspense about what would happen with Cheney in dark-red Wyoming. The congresswoman just two years ago was the third-ranking member of the House GOP leadership and a strong contender to become the first Republican woman to serve as speaker, but she instantly became a national party pariah when she voted to impeach Trump; Cheney went on to serve on the committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack along with just one other Republican, Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger.

Trump and his allies made defeating Cheney a top priority, and his “Bachelor” style endorsement process eventually resulted in him supporting Hageman, who had placed third in the 2018 primary for governor. (Politico relays that Trump’s team originally considered backing her in a prospective rematch against Gov. Mark Gordon.) House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the Club for Growth went on to fall in line behind Hageman, a one-time Trump skeptic who now embraces the Big Lie.

Cheney’s defeat makes her the eighth House Republican to lose renomination this year compared to four Democrats so far. The Wyoming result also means that at least eight of the 10 Republicans who voted for impeachment will not be going back to Congress next year because of primary losses and retirements: Only California Rep. David Valadao and Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse advanced through their respective top-two primaries, though Valadao still has to win his competitive general election against Democrat Rudy Salas.

But Cheney didn’t show any regret about what happened to her once promising career in Republican politics. She proclaimed in her concession speech that “now, the real work begins” and pledged she “will do whatever it takes to ensure Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office.”

election recaps

● AK-Sen: Sen. Lisa Murkowski and her fellow Republican, former state cabinet official Kelly Tshibaka, advanced through the top-four primary as expected, though the AP has not yet called the other two spots for the November instant-runoff general election. Murkowski holds a 44-40 edge over her Trump-backed foe as of Wednesday morning, while Democrat Pat Chesbro, who is a member of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Commission, is well behind with 6%. A pair of little-known Republicans, Buzz Kelley and Pat Nolin, are taking 2% and 1%, respectively.

● AK-Gov: Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy will face former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara and independent former Gov. Bill Walker in the fall, but it remains to be seen who will be the fourth general election candidate. Dunleavy is in first with 42%, while Gara and Walker are grabbing 22% each. Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce holds a 7-4 edge for fourth over state Rep. Christopher Kurka in a race where both Republicans are each positioning themselves to the right of the ardently conservative governor.

● WY-Gov: Gov. Mark Gordon didn’t come close to losing his Republican primary, but he still scored an unimpressive 62-30 victory over Brent Bien, a retired Marine colonel who campaigned against the incumbent’s pandemic health measures. Gordon should have no trouble in the fall against the Democratic nominee, retired U.S. Bureau of Land Management employee Theresa Livingston.

● WY-SoS: State Rep. Chuck Gray, a Trump-endorsed election conspiracy theorist who has insisted the 2020 vote was “clearly rigged,” beat state Sen. Tara Nethercott 50-41 in the Republican primary to serve as secretary of state. Wyoming Democrats did not field a candidate here.

Senate

● FL-Sen: The University of North Florida’s newest survey finds Democratic Rep. Val Demings leading Republican Sen. Marco Rubio 48-44, which is actually better for Team Blue than the tie that two different pro-Demings polls recently showed. This is the first independent survey we’ve seen since winter, and quite a departure from the 46-34 Rubio advantage UNF had in February. The New York Times’ Nate Cohn notes that the school obtained its sample by emailing a list of registered voters, which he calls a “pretty unusual design.”

● NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02: Saint Anselm College gives us a rare look at the Sept. 13 Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, which is the last competitive Senate primary in the nation, as well as Team Red's nomination contests for New Hampshire's two Democratic-held congressional districts. Before we get into the results, though, we need to note that the school asked several issue questions about abortion before it got to the horserace: We always encourage pollsters to ask these sorts of questions after the horserace to avoid "priming" voters to lean one way or the other.

We'll begin with the Senate question, where Donald Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general who lost the 2020 nomination for New Hampshire's other Senate seat, posts a 32-16 advantage against state Senate President Chuck Morse. Bitcoin millionaire Bruce Fenton and former Londonderry town manager Kevin Smith are far back with just 4% each, while author Vikram Mansharamani notches 2%; a 39% plurality remains undecided with less than a month to go.

This is the first poll we've seen here since April, when the University of New Hampshire had Bolduc beating Smith 33-4. Prominent national groups haven't taken sides here, but Bolduc so far has not run a particularly impressive campaign two years after his 50-42 loss. The frontrunner had a mere $70,000 in the bank at the end of June, and he spent last year accusing Gov. GOP Chris Sununu of being a "Chinese communist sympathizer" with a family business that "supports terrorism."

Bolduc also has ardently embraced the Big Lie, saying at a recent debate, "I signed a letter with 120 other generals and admirals saying Trump won the election, and damn it, I stand by [it]." He has plenty of company, though, as Morse is the one GOP candidate who acknowledged that Joe Biden is the president when asked Tuesday if the 2020 election was stolen. Bolduc would also prefer this be the last New Hampshire Senate election in history: Both he and Fenton have called for repealing the 17th Amendment, which gave voters the right to elect their senators in 1913.

Bolduc's many rivals, though, have considerably more resources available as they try to get their names out in the final weeks of the campaign. Fenton finished the second quarter with a $1.63 million war chest, though almost all of that was self-funded. Morse and Mansharamani had $980,000 and $790,000, respectively, with Smith holding $350,000.

Turning to the 1st District, Saint Anselm College shows 2020 nominee Matt Mowers edging out former White House staffer Karoline Leavitt 25-21 in his bid for a rematch against Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas. Former TV reporter Gail Huff Brown and state Rep. Tim Baxter are well behind with 9% and 8%, respectively, with former Executive Councilor Russell Prescott clocking in at 2%. The lead still goes to unsure, though, as 33% did not select a candidate.

Mowers has the backing of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and he finished June with a modest $820,000 to $670,000 cash-on-hand edge over Leavitt. Biden carried both the old and new version of this eastern New Hampshire constituency 52-46 (the court-drawn congressional map made only tiny changes to both of the state's districts after Sununu thwarted efforts by his fellow Republicans in the legislature to make the 1st considerably redder), while Pappas defeated Mowers 51-46 last time.

Finally in the 2nd District, the school finds a hefty 65% undecided in the GOP primary to go up against Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster. Former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns leads Keene Mayor George Hansel just 12-10 while another 8% goes to Lily Tang Williams, who was the 2016 Libertarian Party nominee for Senate in Colorado. (She earned 4% against Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet.)

Hansel has the backing of Sununu, and he ended the last quarter with a $300,000 to $130,000 cash-on-hand edge over Williams, with Burns holding $100,000. Biden would have prevailed 54-45 here.

Governors

● FL-Gov: The University of North Florida finds Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried beating Rep. Charlie Crist 47-43 in next week's Democratic primary, which makes this the first poll to give her the edge all year. Crist quickly responded by releasing a Change Research survey that gave him a 47-37 advantage, which is only a little larger than the 42-35 Crist lead that Fried's own internal from Public Policy Polling showed just last week. An early August St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics had Crist up 56-24.

UNF also takes a look at the general election and has Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis outpacing Crist and Fried 52-40 and 50-43, respectively.

● NH-Gov: Saint Anselm College also surveyed the general election for governor, and it finds Republican incumbent Chris Sununu beating Democratic state Sen. Tom Sherman 48-29. An early July Sherman internal from Public Policy Polling put the governor's lead at a smaller, though still wide, 43-33. The school looks at the Sept. 13 GOP primary as well, but it shows Sununu with a huge 68-6 lead over perennial candidate Karen Testerman.

House

● NY-10: Rep. Mondaire Jones has launched the first negative TV spot of next week's Democratic primary against attorney Dan Goldman, a self-funder who is the only other candidate with the resources to air television ads; Jones' team tells Politico that he's putting $500,000 into this late effort.

The commercial frames the crowded contest as a straight-up choice between "conservative Dan Goldman" or "progressive Mondaire Jones." The narrator goes on to contrast the two, saying, "Dan Goldman has dangerous views on abortion; Mondaire Jones is 100% pro-choice, the best record in Congress." She goes on to argue that Goldman "profited off gun manufacturers" and "made money off FOX News," while the 17th District congressman stood up to the NRA and Republicans.

The spot doesn't go into detail about its charges against Goldman, but Politico provides some background. The candidate last month sat down for an interview with Hamodia's Reuvain Borchardt and was asked, "Should there be any limitation whatsoever on the right to terminate a pregnancy at any point in the pregnancy?" Goldman responded, "I do think, generally speaking, I agree with the break-point of viability, subject to exceptions."

Goldman later said he "would not object" when Borchardt inquired if he'd be alright with a state law that would ban abortion if "there is a perfectly healthy fetus, and the mother just decides after viability that she wants to terminate the pregnancy." However, the candidate then had a conversation with an aide who was also present at the interview, and Borchardt writes that "from that point forward Goldman's responses switched from a post-viability limitation to no limitations at all."

Jones and Goldman's other rivals were quick to go on the attack after the article was published, while Goldman himself insisted he'd "misspoke" and "unequivocally support[s] a woman's right to choose."

As for this ad's charges that Goldman "profited off gun manufacturers" and "made money off FOX News," the New York Daily News recently explained that he has stock in, among many other companies, Lockheed Martin, Halliburton, and News Corp. A spokesperson said, "Dan does not manage his money … It is handled by a broker, and is designed to mirror the S&P 500."

● NY-19 (special): DCCC Analytics has dropped an internal showing Republican Marc Molinaro edging out Democrat Pat Ryan 46-43 in next week's special election. The last poll we saw was a late July Triton Polling & Research survey for Molinaro's allies at the right-wing Freedom Council USA, and it gave their man a larger 50-40 advantage.

● PA-08: Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright is out with an internal from GQR Research that shows him defeating Republican Jim Bognet 52-46 in their rematch for a northeastern Pennsylvania constituency that would have supported Trump 51-48. The only other poll we've seen here was a late June survey for Bognet and the NRCC that put the Republican ahead 46-45.

Cartwright held off Bognet 52-48 last cycle as Trump was prevailing in the old 8th District 52-47, a win that made him one of just seven House Democrats to hold a Trump district. The congressman has taken to the airwaves early for 2022, and Politico's Ally Mutnick relays that he's already spent $415,000 on TV for the general election. Bognet, by contrast, on Tuesday began running his first spot since he won the May primary, a joint ad with the NRCC that ties Cartwright to Scranton native Joe Biden.

Secretaries of State

● MA-SoS: MassInc has surveyed the Sept. 6 Democratic statewide primaries for Responsible Development Coalition, and it finds longtime Secretary of State Bill Galvin leading Boston NAACP head Tanisha Sullivan 43-15, which is larger than the 38-25 advantage he posted in a late June poll from YouGov for UMass Amherst. Responsible Development Coalition is funded in part by the Carpenters Union, which backs Galvin.

Grab Bag

● Where Are They Now?: The FBI on Tuesday arrested former Rep. TJ Cox, a California Democrat who won his sole term in a huge 2018 upset, for "15 counts of wire fraud, 11 counts of money laundering, one count of financial institution fraud, and one count of campaign contribution fraud." Politico says that these charges carry a combined 20-year maximum prison sentence and $250,000 fine.

Prosecutors allege that from 2013 through 2018 Cox "illicitly obtained over $1.7 million in diverted client payments and company loans and investments he solicited and then stole." They also say that he broke campaign finance laws by funneling money to friends and family and having them contribute it to his campaign as "part of a scheme and plan to demonstrate individual campaign donations as preferred over the candidate's personal loans or donations to his campaign."

Cox narrowly unseated Republican Rep. David Valadao in 2018 in the 21st Congressional District in the Central Valley, but he lost their tight rematch two years later. Cox initially announced in December of 2020 that he'd run again, but, in a development that now comes as a massive relief for his party, he ultimately decided not to go for it.

Ad Roundup

Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.

AZ-Sen: DSCC - anti-Blake Masters (R) (in English and Spanish)
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D-inc)
NC-Sen: Cheri Beasley (D)
NV-Sen: Senate Majority PAC - anti-Adam Laxalt (R) ($1.9 million buy)
OH-Sen: One Nation - anti-Tim Ryan (D) (part of $3.8 million buy)
PA-Sen: John Fetterman (D)
WI-Sen: Mandela Barnes (D)
FL-Gov: Nikki Fried (D)
OH-Gov: Nan Whaley (D) (here and here)
TX-Gov: Greg Abbott (R-inc) (part of $4.1 million buy)
WI-Gov: Tony Evers (D-inc)
MI-03: Hillary Scholten (D) ($100,000 buy)
NY-19 (special): Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Pat Ryan (D) and pro-Marc Molinaro (R) ($400,000 buy)
WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (R)

Morning Digest: Landslide wins close out Hawaii’s biggest weekend primaries

Posted on August 15, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

Leading Off

Embedded Content

● Hawaii: The Aloha State held its primary Saturday, and we have a summary of each of the big contests below.

● HI-Gov: Lt. Gov. Josh Green defeated businesswoman Vicky Cayetano 63-21 in the primary to succeed their fellow Democrat, termed-out Gov. David Ige, while freshman Rep. Kai Kahele notched third with 15%. Green, who continued to work as a physician after going into politics, had a large media presence throughout the worst months of the pandemic, and he was the frontrunner from the start.

Green remains the favorite in November against former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, a two-time Republican nominee who scored a 50-26 victory over Ultimate Fighting Championship champion B.J. Penn. Aiona was defeated by former Rep. Neil Abercrombie 58-41 in the 2010 general election, and Aiona lost his chance for a rematch four years later when Ige beat the unpopular Abercrombie in the primary. Both parties believed that Aiona still had a real shot with another GOP wave looming and with conservative Democrat-turned-independent Mufi Hannemann threatening to siphon off votes from the Democratic ticket, but Ige turned back Aiona 49-37.

Joe Biden carried Hawaii 64-34 (he took each of the state’s two congressional districts by that same margin), and national Republicans haven’t shown any obvious sign of interest in targeting this seat again. Indeed, the RGA didn’t even respond for a Washington Post article that ran just before the primary.

● HI-01: Blue Dog Democrat Rep. Ed Case held off attorney Sergio Alcubilla by a lopsided 83-17 margin in this Honolulu-based seat. Alcubilla, who ran to Case’s left, had the backing of a few big unions, but he raised little himself and never attracted any serious outside spending.

● HI-02: Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda beat state Rep. Patrick Branco 58-25 in the Democratic primary to replace Kai Kahele in a constituency that includes northern Oahu and all of the state’s other islands.

Tokuda, who lost a tight 2018 primary to lieutenant governor to Josh Green, entered the race as the frontrunner, but a quartet of major outside groups—VoteVets, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, Web3 Forward, and Mainstream Democrats PAC— spent a total of $1.2 million to elevate Branco or attack her. While this ad barrage represented a truly massive amount for a Hawaii congressional race, it turned out to be far from enough to stop Tokuda.

Senate

● FL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Val Demings' allies at EMILY's List have publicized a poll from Change Research that shows her deadlocked 46-46 against Republican incumbent Marco Rubio, a release that came days after two progressive groups unveiled their own survey from Clarity Campaigns that found a 45-45 tie. We have not seen any independent polls of this contest since winter.

● NC-Sen: NBC reports that Republican Ted Budd and the NRSC will launch a joint ad campaign for $750,000, which will make this Budd's first TV commercial since he won the primary all the way back in May. Democrat Cheri Beasley, by contrast, has deployed $4.7 million since she won the nomination, though the NRSC has spent $6.3 million against her.

House

● AK-AL: Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, a Republican whose city is home to about 40% of the state's population, has endorsed businessman Nick Begich III ahead of Tuesday's instant-runoff special.

Meanwhile another Republican, former state Interior Department official Tara Sweeney, announced Friday that she'd registered with the state as an official write-in candidate for the special "after repeated requests from supporters," though she said her main focus would be to advance out of the top-four primary for a full two-year term.

● FL-01: Self-funding businessman Mark Lombardo's latest commercial against Republican incumbent Matt Gaetz opens with the primary challenger declaring, "As a member of Congress, Matt Gaetz took an oath to protect America's secrets. He broke that oath when he engaged in illicit behavior on foreign soil, leaving himself vulnerable to blackmail and putting our nation's secrets at risk." Lombardo doesn't let up as the ad goes on, continuing, "To cover up, he paid pedophile Jeffrey Epstein's attorney with donors' cash and pressured Trump for a pardon for any or all crimes."

● FL-13: While 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna has always looked like the frontrunner to claim the Republican nomination again on Aug. 23 in this newly gerrymandered seat, attorney Kevin Hayslett's outside group allies are deploying a serious amount to stop her. Florida Politics reports that Stand for Florida, a PAC that was set up in February, has spent $860,000 in recent days, which takes its total investment here all the way up to $1.5 million.

Luna, though, has gotten plenty of outside help herself, as the Club for Growth has dropped over $1.8 million to promote her. Conservative Outsider PAC, which is funded in part by Club donor Dick Uihlein, is also using about $110,000 for a commercial that responds to a recent Hayslett commercial that featured a clip of Luna appearing to praise Obama. The audience sees Luna warning that undocumented immigrants will cost conservatives "this country," before the narrator notes that she's Trump's endorsed candidate.

The only recent poll we've seen here was a late July Hayslett internal that showed him trailing Luna 36-34 for this constituency in the St. Petersburg area.

● FL-23: Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz has earned endorsements from the National Education Association, the Florida Education Association, and the American Federation of Teachers ahead of this month's Democratic primary.

● NY-01: While Nick LaLota once appeared to have a smooth path through the Aug. 23 GOP primary for this competitive open seat, the chief of staff of the Suffolk County Legislature went up with a commercial against his main intra-party rival, cryptocurrency trader Michelle Bond, earlier this month.

The narrator insists that Bond is a "liberal D.C. lobbyist" with a history of "working for Obama and Biden as a registered Democrat." The spot also declares that Bond "bankrolled a Trump-hating senator [and] lives in a mansion in the Swamp." (That last bit is a reference to Bond's newly purchased estate in Maryland, which she said is one of the "multiple residences" she has.) The rest of the ad promotes LaLota as a loyal Long Island conservative and "Trump conservative."

Bond is airing her own ads (here and here) that tout her as a conservative businesswoman, though they do not mention LaLota. Bond has used her personal wealth to decisively outpace LaLota in the money race, and the outside spending has also very much benefited her. Stand for New York, a group that hasn't gotten involved in any other races, has dropped $580,000 to attack LaLota. Another committee called Crypto Innovation PAC has also spent another $160,000 to promote Bond: The group is funded by crypto notable Ryan Salame, who just happens to be her boyfriend. (Salame has also bankrolled American Dream Federal Action, another super PAC that's gotten involved in other GOP primaries.)

LaLota has not received any super PAC aid, though he does sport endorsements from the local Republican and Conservative parties. The contest to succeed GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin also includes government relations firm executive Anthony Figliola, though he's attracted little money or attention. The winner will go up against Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, who has no Democratic primary opposition, in an eastern Long Island constituency that Biden would have carried by a tiny 49.4-49.2.

● NY-10: Attorney Dan Goldman on Saturday earned the backing of the New York Times, which is arguably one of the few newspaper endorsements still capable of moving voters in a local Democratic primary, ahead of the packed Aug. 23 contest for this safely blue seat based in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn. The Times’ nod was especially coveted here: City & State wrote earlier this month, “One campaign said they’ve probably had 20 supporters email or call members of the board to make their case,” while an unnamed operative added, “Everybody lobbies … The question is to what degree.”

Those candidates may have had good reason to lobby. City & State notes that the NYT’s endorsement last year provided a huge lift to then-Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia in the primary for mayor of New York City and helped establish her as a frontrunner. Garcia still narrowly lost the instant-runoff contest to Eric Adams, but she performed well in areas that overlap with the 10th District as well as the 12th, which is home to another big Democratic primary.

Politico's Joe Anuta also reports that Goldman has so far spent $2.8 million on TV ads, which is a truly massive sum for a campaign taking place in America's priciest media market. Goldman, though, is an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, and he has plenty of personal wealth and connections: The candidate, who would be one of the wealthiest members of Congress, has self-funded $4 million so far and raised another $1.5 million from donors through Aug. 3.

Anuta relays that only one Goldman opponent, 17th District Rep. Mondaire Jones, has joined him on television, and he's deployed a considerably smaller $784,000. The other contenders have stayed off the airwaves, which is a common strategy for candidates running in the massive New York City media market. (Over 20 million people live in this market, and relatively few can vote in the 10th District's primary.)

"You're wasting your spending on 90% of the people who see your ad," explained Matthew Rey, a strategist who isn't involved in this race. He added, "So is it a powerful way to persuasively and effectively reach that other 10%? Yes. But dollar-for-dollar, it's a luxury." Another unaligned consultant, Basil Smikle Jr., was even more skeptical, saying, "In a congressional race where you are expecting turnout to be low, there are much more efficient ways to spend your money than doing a large broadcast buy in the last couple of weeks."

Goldman, though, is betting that voters will indeed react well to his TV spots, including a new piece touting his work in civil rights law and "leading the impeachment of Donald Trump." The commercial also displays Trump's message on his Truth Social platform (which, yes, still exists) reading, "Dan Goldman puts in his ad used in running for Congress that he 'impeached Donald Trump'" to argue, "Donald Trump doesn't want Dan Goldman in Congress, but we do."

● NY-12: The New York Times on Saturday endorsed incumbent Jerry Nadler in his Democratic primary against fellow Rep. Carolyn Maloney and attorney Suraj Patel.

● NY-17: The New York City Police Benevolent Association, which endorsed Trump in 2020, has spent $310,000 to oppose state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi in her Democratic primary against Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. The spot labels Biaggi an “anti-police extremist,” which is the type of rhetoric Republicans usually love to throw at Democrats in general elections.

● NY-19 (special): VoteVets has launched what Politico reports is a $450,000 ad buy to aid Democrat Pat Ryan, which makes this Team Blue's first major independent expenditure ahead of an Aug. 23 special election. The narrator echoes Ryan in framing the contest as a choice between a pro-choice candidate and "a Congress that'll pass a nationwide ban on abortion first chance they get." She adds that Ryan, who served with the Army in Iraq "sure didn't fight for our freedom abroad to see it taken away from women here at home."

The NRCC, for its part, is continuing to try to frame Ryan as weak on public safety in its new spot.

● OH-09: Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur's latest commercial argues that, while she's fighting to lower drug prices, Republican J.R. Majewski "made a rap video." Yes, you read that right: The QAnon-aligned candidate did indeed star in a piece called "Let's Go Brandon Save America," and Kaptur's spot treats viewers to a mercifully small piece of it. "Not to poke fun at dementia, it's a serious disease," raps Majewski, "But come on, man, squeeze your cheeks when you sneeze." Kaptur's narrator concludes, "We don't need celebrity wannabes, we need serious leaders tackling serious challenges."

● OK-02: The newest commercial in what's turned into a very expensive Aug. 23 Republican runoff is a spot from the Club for Growth affiliate School Freedom Fund starring Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who extols former state Sen. Josh Brecheen as an ardent "Trump conservative."

This group has deployed $1.8 million during the second round to promote Brecheen, who is a former Club fellow, or rip his opponent, state Rep. Avery Fix, in the contest for this safely red eastern Oklahoma constituency. Two other organizations, Fund for a Working Congress and American Jobs and Growth PAC, have dropped a similar amount to help Frix, who outpaced Brecheen just 15-14 in late June.

Other Races

● GA Public Service Commission: On Friday, an 11th Circuit Court of Appeals panel stayed a recent lower court ruling that had blocked Georgia from holding elections this fall for two seats on its Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities, on the grounds that the statewide election method violated the Voting Rights Act by discriminating against Black voters. The district court ruling had postponed the elections until Georgia lawmakers adopted a district-based election method next year, but the appellate judges ruled that it was too close to November to implement any election changes to ongoing 2022 elections and stayed the lower court's decision while Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger's appeal is pending.

Ad Roundup

AK-Sen: Kelly Tshibaka (R) - anti-Lisa Murkowski (R-inc)
GA-Sen: Raphael Warnock (D-inc)
NV-Sen: NRSC - anti-Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) (in Spanish)
WI-Sen: Wisconsin Truth PAC - anti-Mandela Barnes (D)
NV-Gov: RGA - anti-Steve Sisolak (D-inc)
AK-AL: Mary Peltola (D)
FL-04: Aaron Bean (R)
NY-02: Defending Main Street - pro-Andrew Garbarino (R-inc)

Morning Digest: Trump-backed rich guy wins close primary to take on Wisconsin’s Democratic governor

Posted on August 10, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

Embedded Content

Leading Off

● WI-Gov: Self-funding businessman Tim Michels, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, defeated former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch 47-42 in the Republican primary to take on Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. Michels was last on the ballot all the way back in 2004 when he lost the Senate race to Democrat Russ Feingold 55-44 as John Kerry was only narrowly carrying Wisconsin 50-49. Team Red, though, is counting on a much better performance from him this time against Evers in what will be one of the biggest races of 2022.

Kleefisch, who was Scott Walker’s running mate in each of his campaigns and had his backing for the top job, looked like the clear frontrunner until April when Michels jumped in seemingly out of nowhere. The construction executive, however, immediately used his wealth to reintroduce himself to voters, and he wound up decisively outspending his opponent after investing at least $12 million into his comeback.

Michels went on to earn Trump’s endorsement in June; the GOP's leader reportedly was infuriated about a 2019 picture of Kleefisch's daughter going to her high school prom with the son of Brian Hagedorn, a conservative state Supreme Court justice who sided against Trump’s attempts to steal the 2020 election. Kleefisch and her allies began airing negative ads a month before Election Day, but Michels spent weeks insisting he wouldn’t do the same.

As recently as last Monday, the businessman proclaimed, “I've never had a negative ad run by my campaign in this race,” explaining, “And the reason is we've never had a single piece of business by talking bad about the competition.” However, while Michels continued, “And the reason is, it's just bad policy, and if you get a reputation of doing that in my industry … people immediately disrespect you,” he decided to risk that disrespect on Thursday by indeed going negative. That belated response, as well as the Club for Growth’s earlier anti-Kleefisch ad campaign, may have made the difference in Tuesday’s close primary.

Election Recaps

● Primary Night: Below is a state-by-state look at where Tuesday’s other major contests stood as of 8 AM ET Wednesday, and you can also find our cheat-sheet here.

● CT-Sen (R): Former Ambassador to Chile Leora Levy beat former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides 51-40 for the right to face Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal. Biden won Connecticut 59-39, and there was little indication that the senator was vulnerable even before the Trump-endorsed Levy took the GOP nomination.

Klarides spent years as a GOP rising star in a state where the party desperately needed one, and she had been widely expected to challenge Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont. In January, though, Klarides kicked off a Senate bid instead after wealthy businessman Bob Stefanowski announced that he would seek a rematch with Lamont, who beat him 49-46. However, while Klarides likely believed she’d avoid a tough primary by choosing to go after the entrenched Blumenthal, Levy proved her very wrong.

● MN-01 (special): The Associated Press has not yet called the special election to succeed the late Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn, but Republican Brad Finstad leads Democrat Jeff Ettinger 51-47 with 118,000 votes in; the AP estimates that this is represents 99% of the total vote. Trump carried this southern Minnesota constituency 54-44 in 2020, while Hagedorn won his second and final term that year 49-46.

● MN-01 (R): Finstad easily turned back state Rep. Jeremy Munson 76-24 in the Republican primary for a full two-year term, while Ettinger secured the Democratic nod 92-6 against a little-known foe. Trump would have carried the new version of the 1st, which largely resembles the constituency Hagedorn represented, by a similar 53-44 spread.

Finstad beat Munson just 38-37 in the May special primary, and while Munson filed to run for a full term days later, it initially looked like he was just raising money to pay back a $200,000 campaign loan. Munson announced in July that he would indeed try once more to beat Finstad, but that effort badly collapsed on Tuesday.

● MN-04 (D): Longtime Rep. Betty McCollum pulled off a landslide 83-15 win against party operative Amane Badhasso in the primary for this safely blue St. Paul-based seat.

● MN-05 (D): In arguably the biggest surprise of the evening, Rep. Ilhan Omar fended off former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels just 50-48 to win renomination in this heavily Democratic constituency in the Minneapolis area. We’ll take a closer look at this near upset in our next Digest.

● MN-AG (R): Attorney Jim Schultz, who earned the state party’s endorsement in May, beat 2018 nominee Doug Wardlow 53-35. Schultz will now take on Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison, who defeated Wardlow 49-45 four years ago.

● Hennepin County, MN Attorney: Former Hennepin County Chief Public Defender Mary Moriarty took first place in the seven-way nonpartisan primary with 36%, while retired judge Martha Holton Dimick edged out state House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler 18-16 for the second spot in the November general election.

Both Moriarty and Dimick are Democrats, but they’ve been running very different campaigns. Moriarty, who has the backing of Rep. Ilhan Omar, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and the state Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party, has pitched herself as a reformer, saying there needs to be “accountability both for people who violate the law and police.”

Dimick, who has both Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey and the Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association in her corner, has in turn argued, “We have to send messages that we will prosecute violent criminals … With that effort to defund the police, people sent the wrong message.” Dimick would be the state's first Black county attorney.

● VT-Sen (R): First-time candidate Gerald Malloy scored a 43-39 win against former U.S. Attorney Christina Nolan, who generated some attention when she launched her campaign; Nolan also had the support of Gov. Phil Scott, who is one of the few prominent Republicans in this very blue state. The result makes little difference for the general election, though, because Democratic Rep. Peter Welch should have no trouble winning the contest to succeed retiring Sen. Pat Leahy in a state Biden took 66-31.

● VT-AL (D): State Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint beat Lt. Gov. Molly Gray 61-37 in the primary to replace Welch as Vermont’s only House member. Balint, who had endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and the LGBTQ Victory Fund, is now set to end Vermont’s status as the only state in America that has not elected a woman to Congress; Balint would also be the Green Mountain State’s first gay representative.

● WI-03 (D): State Sen. Brad Pfaff defeated businesswoman Rebecca Cooke 39-31 in the primary to succeed retiring Rep. Ron Kind, who is Pfaff’s former boss and top supporter. Pfaff will now go up against 2020 Republican nominee Derrick Van Orden, who lost to Kind 51-49 in the closest race of the congressman’s career. Trump carried both the old and new versions of this southwestern Wisconsin constituency 51-47.

● WI-AG (R): Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney holds a 37.5-36.9 edge over former state Rep. Adam Jarchow in a contest that the Associated Press has not yet called; 595,000 ballots have been tabulated, and the AP estimates they represent 99% of the total vote. The winner will go up against Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, who won his post in a tight 2018 contest.

● WI State Assembly (R): Speaker Robin Vos won renomination 51-49 against Adam Steen, who was very much a longshot until Trump endorsed him last week. No Democrats are running for this seat in the Racine area.

Trump made his move after Vos said that the GOP’s master had recently called him and urged him to retroactively decertify Joe Biden's victory in the state—a move the speaker said was legally impossible. Trump retaliated by trashing Vos for using an old photo of the two of them together in his campaign literature as he endorsed the previously little-known Steen.

Senate

● GA-Sen, GA-Gov, GA-LG: Charlie Bailey, who is Team Blue's nominee for lieutenant governor, has released an internal from Research Affiliates that shows his party doing well in competitive contests. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock edges out Republican Herschel Walker 49-46, while GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams are deadlocked 47-47. Bailey also posts a 43-43 tie in his own race against Republican Burt Jones, who was the rare member of Donald Trump's Big Lie slate to win a statewide primary this year.

● OK-Sen-B: The Republican pollster Battleground Connect last week found Rep. Markwayne Mullin leading former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon 46-38 ahead of the Aug. 23 Republican primary runoff. This survey, which did not mention a client, is the first poll we've seen of the second round of voting. Mullin outpaced Shannon 44-18 in late June and picked up Trump's endorsement soon after, so it would be a surprise if the runoff is close.

Battleground Connect did depart from the consensus in July when it released a trio of polls in the GOP primary for Arizona's U.S. Senate seat that showed wealthy businessman Jim Lamon narrowly leading the Trump-endorsed Blake Masters at a time when every other firm had Masters well ahead. (Its final poll in late July put Lamon up 30-28.) But that iconoclasm didn't work out well for Battleground Connect or Lamon, and Masters prevailed 40-28 last week.

● UT-Sen: Republican incumbent Mike Lee's team has dusted off a WPA Intelligence Poll from July 12-14 that shows him beating independent Evan McMullin 49-35, with 10% going to unnamed other candidates. A survey taken around that same time by Dan Jones & Associates showed Lee up by a considerably smaller 41-36.

Governors

● OK-Gov: Oklahoma's Children Our Future, a group that very much does not like Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, has publicized an internal from the Democratic firm Change Research that shows him leading Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister only 42-34. Libertarian Natalie Bruno takes 6% while independent Ervin Yen, who is a former Republican state senator, grabs another 4%.

The memo, which begins, "As scandal after scandal plagues the Kevin Stitt administration," says that the governor posted a 58-32 advantage in an unreleased January poll. The last survey we saw was in early June when the GOP firm Amber Integrated gave Stitt a 47-29 edge over Hofmeister, who left the Republican Party in October.

House

● CA-13, OR-04, OR-06: Politico’s Ally Mutnick has obtained a trio of polls sponsored by the NRCC and the seat’s respective Republican nominee that show Team Red in competitive races in constituencies Biden decisively carried:

CA-13: Moore Information (R): Adam Gray (D): 47, John Duarte (R): 43

OR-04: Moore Information (R): Val Hoyle (D): 46, Alek Skarlatos (R): 41

OR-06: Cygnal (R): Mike Erickson (R): 47, Andrea Salinas (D): 40

These are the first numbers we’ve seen from any of these contests.

● NY-24: Rep. Claudia Tenney has unveiled an internal from Public Opinion Strategies that has her taking 52% in the Aug. 23 GOP primary while her two opponents, attorney Mario Fratto and perennial candidate George Phillips, grab just 6% each. Trump would have won 57-40 in this constituency, which is based in the Finger Lakes region.

The Trump-endorsed Tenney currently represents less than 6% of this revamped district, but neither of her foes have generated much attention. Fratto did finish June with $230,000 on-hand thanks mostly to self-funding, but Tenney was still well ahead with $1 million banked. Phillips, writes The Citizen, "has not been actively campaigning for the seat and did not file a fundraising report."

● WA-03: On Tuesday evening Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who was one of the 10 House Republican who voted to impeach Donald Trump last year, conceded last week’s top-two primary one day after she dropped into third place. With 218,000 ballots tabulated Democrat Marie Perez leads with 31% while Trump's candidate, Army veteran Joe Kent, edged out Herrera Beutler 22.8-22.3 for the second general election spot. Trump would have carried this southwestern Washington seat 51-46.

● WY-AL: Sen. Cynthia Lummis endorsed attorney Harriet Hageman over the weekend for the Aug. 16 GOP primary almost a year after Donald Trump declared that the senator was already supporting Hageman's bid against Rep. Liz Cheney. Lummis' spokesperson said back in September, "While Senator Lummis is not making an endorsement at this time, she believes President Trump has made an inspired choice in backing Harriet Hageman."

secretaries of state

● WA-SoS: The AP has called a special general election between appointed Democratic incumbent Steve Hobbs and Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson, who does not identify with either party. Hobbs, who is the first Democrat to hold this office since the 1964 election, took first in last week’s top-two primary with 40%, while Anderson edged out Republican state Sen. Keith Wagoner 13-12 for second. The winner will be up for a full four-year term in 2024.

Ad Roundup

Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.

GA-Sen: Republican Accountability Project - anti-Herschel Walker (R) ($100,000 buy)
OH-Sen: Tim Ryan (D) - anti-J.D. Vance (R)
PA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC - anti-Mehmet Oz (R) & pro-John Fetterman (D)
WI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Ron Johnson (R-inc)
RI-Gov: Dan McKee (D-inc)
FL-15: Eddie Geller (D)
ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)
MI-07: Tom Barrett (R)
MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc)
NH-01: Chris Pappas (D-inc)

Morning Digest: Trump-backed rich guy wins close primary to take on Wisconsin’s Democratic governor

Posted on August 10, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

Embedded Content

Leading Off

Election Recaps

● Primary Night: Below is a state-by-state look at where Tuesday’s other major contests stood as of 8 AM ET Wednesday, and you can also find our cheat-sheet here.

● MN-04 (D): Longtime Rep. Betty McCollum pulled off a landslide 83-15 win against party operative Amane Badhasso in the primary for this safely blue St. Paul-based seat.

Senate

Governors

House

CA-13: Moore Information (R): Adam Gray (D): 47, John Duarte (R): 43

OR-04: Moore Information (R): Val Hoyle (D): 46, Alek Skarlatos (R): 41

OR-06: Cygnal (R): Mike Erickson (R): 47, Andrea Salinas (D): 40

These are the first numbers we’ve seen from any of these contests.

secretaries of state

Ad Roundup

Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.

GA-Sen: Republican Accountability Project - anti-Herschel Walker (R) ($100,000 buy)
OH-Sen: Tim Ryan (D) - anti-J.D. Vance (R)
PA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC - anti-Mehmet Oz (R) & pro-John Fetterman (D)
WI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Ron Johnson (R-inc)
RI-Gov: Dan McKee (D-inc)
FL-15: Eddie Geller (D)
ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)
MI-07: Tom Barrett (R)
MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc)
NH-01: Chris Pappas (D-inc)

Live coverage: Aug. 9 primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin

Posted on August 10, 2022 by Daily Kos Elections

Four states are holding primaries tonight, while Minnesota will also host a special election in the 1st Congressional District for the final months of the late Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn's term.

Polls close in Vermont at 7 PM ET and Connecticut an hour later. We’ll begin our liveblog at 9 PM ET/8 PM local time when when polls close in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which are home to the bulk of tonight's big races.

Key races: Previews | Cheat-sheet ♦ Results: CT | MN | VT | WI

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:06:43 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

If it’s Tuesday, it must be time for DK Elections’ coverage of yet another primary election night! Tonight, the bulk of the action is in the Midwest, with primaries (and one special Congressional election) in Minnesota and Wisconsin. But we also already have results streaming in from Connecticut and Vermont. A reminder: we wait till at least 10% of the expected turnout has reported, so our readers don’t have to try to contend with drawing conclusions based on dozens of votes. Another reminder that even when we start to report results, early voting and regional politics can make early numbers misleading (see: last week in Arizona). So, patience, more than ever, is a virtue!

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:10:38 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

VT-AL (D): In a race that has already been counting votes for two hours, we got a call in the past 20 minutes. State legislator Becca Balint has built a pretty convincing 62-36 lead over Lt. Gov. Molly Gray, and has been declared the winner by AP. Given the blueness of Vermont, her nomination is almost certainly tantamount to victory, making her both the first woman and the first LGBTQ member of the Vermont federal delegation.

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:12:54 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

WA-03: And here is a little housekeeping from last week, and a bit of breaking news: Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, considered a rising star in the GOP until voting her conscience on the impeachment of Donald Trump, has conceded defeat in her bid for re-election. Democrat Marie Perez had already clinched one of the two general election slots (remember that Washington utilizes a top two open primary), and now Herrera Beutler is effectively admitting that MAGA extremist Joe Kent will claim the other spot.

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:21:15 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

WA-SoS: A little bit more housekeeping, and a bit of history. For the first time in more than a generation, the state of Washington will elect someone to the pivotal office of Secretary of State that is not a Republican. Democratic incumbent Steve Hobbs (who was appointed to the position when Republican Kim Wyman took a position in the Biden administration) was already declared for the general election last week, but now Independent Julie Anderson has edged out a trio of Republicans to claim the second slot in the general election.

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:24:07 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

MN-05 (D): We’ve not hit the threshold (>10% reporting) in one of the marquee primaries of the night, and it is as close as was expected. Rep. Ilhan Omar has just a 53-46 lead over fellow Democrat Don Samuels with about 16,000 votes tabulated.

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:27:22 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

MN-01 (Special): This is worth noting, before the night truly gets underway. Minnesota election officials yesterday warned that the vote count here would be slowed by the fact that, because this is being held under the 2011-2021 lines, it is being tabulated completely separately from the other races on the ballot. Therefore, the special election results will be released separately, county-by-county, when all votes in that county are in. So, if you’re waiting on this one, get comfy.

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:32:22 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

WI-Sen (D): The AP has called this race for Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. This primary, admittedly, became much clearer over the past two weeks, as Barnes saw his three chief rivals for the nomination (Tom Nelson, Sarah Godlewski, and Alex Lasry) drop out of the race and endorse him. He goes on to a critical race in November against two-term incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, who is also easily leading his primary tonight.

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:35:02 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

WI-Gov (R): We’ve just hit the threshold here, and holy crap—this one is tight. Trump-endorsed (and you really need to read why he endorsed in this race) Tim Michels leads former state Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch by just 80 votes out of 67,000 votes cast.

Wednesday, Aug 10, 2022 · 1:36:50 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

MN-05 (D): More votes have been counted, and the Democratic primary here is rapidly tightening. With about half the expected vote counted, Rep. Ilhan Omar’s lead over Don Samuels has shrunk to a 51-48 margin, a raw vote margin just under 2000 votes.