Category: SchoolFreedomFund

Morning Digest: Wyoming’s GOP establishment fights to hold off ‘authoritarian’ Freedom Caucus

Posted on by Daily Kos Elections

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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● WY State House: While Wyoming has long been one of the most conservative states in America, the local affiliate of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus is calling on GOP primary voters to move the Equality State even further to the right next month. WyoFile's Maya Shimizu Harris details how the Wyoming Freedom Caucus is targeting several seats in the state House of Representatives on Aug. 20 as part of its long-term effort to replace a party establishment it has denounced as "liberals."

The state Freedom Caucus' intraparty enemies, though, have organized their own Wyoming Caucus to counter an organization they've derided as "authoritarian." Speaker Pro Tempore Clark Stith, who chairs the Wyoming Caucus, argued to the Jackson Hole News&Guide's Jasmine Hall, "[I]f the Freedom Caucus takes over there will be a dismantling of programs that ordinary citizens come to depend on." Stith, who is trying to fend off a primary challenger, added, "It would be very destructive."

The battle between these two factions began well before this cycle. "Everything started with the failed Tea Party movement," state Rep. Pat Sweeney told reporter Ben Jacobs in 2022 as Sweeney himself was trying to fend off a primary challenge from the right that year. "[I]t moved the needle in my mind to Campaign for Liberty, Ron and Rand Paul. So that element gained a little more traction and a little more traction."

Former state Rep. Tim Stubson, though, argued to Jacobs that this battle wasn't about actual policy differences. "I mean, everybody’s gonna say ‘pro-Second Amendment,’ everybody’s gonna say ‘we’re pro-life.’ Everybody’s gonna say ‘we’re pro-oil, -gas, and -coal," he said. "It’s [about] who is flipping those levels of power? It’s as simple as that."

The far-right went on to score some big wins in that year's primaries on the same night that attorney Harriet Hageman overwhelmingly defeated U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, whose vote to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot left her with few friends in either wing of the state GOP. State Rep. Chuck Gray, who insisted the 2020 vote was “clearly rigged," won the primary for secretary of state, while Sweeney overwhelmingly lost renomination to challenger Bill Allemand.

There still weren't enough hard-liners in the state House after the general election to prevent a member of the establishment, state Rep. Albert Sommers, from narrowly winning the GOP caucus contest for speaker. However, the faction that soon dubbed itself the Wyoming Freedom Caucus, which is one of several state affiliates of the eponymous national organization, does have more than enough members to cause trouble.

Harris writes that, of the 57 Republicans in the 62-member chamber, 26 of them are "relatively consistent Freedom Caucus-aligned lawmakers." (She adds that the official membership of this group, which keeps its list hidden from public view, "is less than that.") That's a massive increase from less than a decade ago: Hall writes that this faction had just five members when it began to take shape in 2017.

Because it takes two-thirds of the chamber to introduce measures during budget sessions, the Freedom Caucus has used its influence to negotiate the passage of plans that Harris says seemed doomed to failure, including "legislation to restrict crossover voting and an abortion ban that’s now held up in court." However, a bill to require a minimum age to get married did become law over the objections of several far-right legislators, including state Rep. Scott Smith, a Freedom Caucus member who said that the children in his district "seem to be pretty mature."

The bloc, though, is now hoping primary voters will help it gain enough members to hold a majority in the chamber. The group is targeting several incumbents as well as open seats, including the one that Sommers is giving up to run for the state Senate.

The Wyoming Freedom Caucus is getting an assist from state GOP Chair Frank Eathorne, Gray, and Hageman. The Freedom Caucus' PAC and Make Liberty Win, which is an affiliate of the libertarian organization Young Americans for Liberty, are also paying for mailers to boost its candidates. One such message targets hostile lawmakers by accusing them of voting "with the radical left to remove" Donald Trump from the ballot; Cowboy State Daily's Leo Wolfson writes of this line, "Calling this claim a stretch would be generous."

The Koch network's Americans for Prosperity, though, is intervening on the other side. AFP is sending out its own mailer to Republicans that bash the Freedom Caucus' candidates for "bringing Washington’s failed values to Wyoming."

One powerful Republican who wants this clique to fail is Gov. Mark Gordon, who has feuded with the bloc and received a censure from the state party in April for vetoing a property tax cut and a bill that would have abolished gun-free zones. The Freedom Caucus, though, is already planning for the 2026 cycle when Gordon will be termed out. "If we want to change how this land is governed," said state Rep. Jeanette Ward, "we need to change the butts in the seats, including the governor."

And the group may have its sights set further afield than just two years down the line. "The Freedom Caucus has gone so far as to endorse candidates for [the University of Wyoming's] student government," student Tanner Ewalt wrote in WyoFile earlier this year. "Make no mistake," Ewalt warned, "the Freedom Caucus is meddling in our student elections because they are 'building a bench' for tomorrow so that one day people who share their radical ideology will be running for the Wyoming Legislature and even U.S. Congress."

The Downballot

● We've strived mightily to stick to down-ticket elections since launching our show more than two years ago, but the universe finally forced us to discuss the presidential race on this week's episode of "The Downballot"! But it's for a good reason: The new surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the top of the ticket is likely to have a salutary effect further down the ballot. And the events of the last few weeks are a reminder, as host David Nir and guest host Joe Sudbay say, that things can change awfully fast and we all need to remain humble.

But have no fear: We haven't forgotten our true calling! Our guest this week is Inside Elections publisher Nathan Gonzales, who is as devoted to downballot races as anyone. Gonzales tells us how the world of election analysis has changed over the last two decades and explains how his publication's widely followed race ratings are actually put together. He also talks about Inside Elections' efforts to fill a major data gap by polling key House races—and even breaks a little news about where they'll be polling next!

Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. You'll find a transcript of this week's show right here by Thursday afternoon. New episodes every Thursday morning!

Governors

● MO-Gov: Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has shared an internal poll from The Tyson Group with the far-right site Newsmax arguing that he remains the front-runner in the Aug. 6 Republican primary for governor despite getting badly outspent by Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe's forces.

The survey, which was conducted from July 14 through July 16, finds Ashcroft outpacing Kehoe 29-18, with another 13% going to state Sen. Bill Eigel. That's much closer than the secretary of state's 36-11 advantage in Tyson's April poll, though it's better than what more recent surveys from other firms have shown. This is the first poll we've seen of this contest from July.

Eigel, for his part, is hoping a xenophobic new ad will help him gain the type of attention he needs to pull off an upset in two weeks. Eigel pledges to jail and deport undocumented immigrants, much to the increasing consternation of a Latino man tasked with translating that message into Spanish.    

● NH-Gov: Former state Senate President Chuck Morse is using his opening TV ad to argue that former Sen. Kelly Ayotte has betrayed Donald Trump and New Hampshire conservatives, a message he's hoping will help him turn around his fortunes ahead of their Sept. 10 Republican primary for governor.

The spot reminds viewers that Ayotte announced in October 2016 that she wouldn't be voting for Trump, a declaration that came one day after the release of the "Access Hollywood" tape seemed to doom his campaign. Ayotte went on to narrowly lose reelection to Democrat Maggie Hassan, but she returned to Trump's good graces months later when he recruited her to guide Neil Gorsuch's successful confirmation to the Supreme Court.

The commercial goes on to attack Ayotte's record in the Senate, with the narrator declaring, "She voted with President Obama to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, and turned her back on both Donald Trump and us." The rest of the commercial touts Morse as an ardent conservative.

House

● AZ-01: The cryptocurrency-aligned group Protect Progress has deployed over $400,000 to boost businessman Andrei Cherny in next week's six-way Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert, which makes Cherny by far the largest recipient of outside support. We do not yet have a copy of the ad Protect Progress is running in Arizona's 1st District.

● AZ-08: While state House Speaker Ben Toma's campaign for Arizona's conservative 8th District has largely been overshadowed by the truly ugly battle between venture capitalist Blake Masters and attorney Abe Hamedah, Toma's outside group allies are hoping their combined $1 million investment will help propel him to an upset next week.

One of those groups is an entity called National Interest Action Inc., which has not yet disclosed its donors. The only other race this organization has gotten involved in is the Aug. 6 GOP primary for Missouri's 3rd District, where it's aiding Kurt Schaefer against another former member of the state Senate, Bob Onder. The other major pro-Toma outfit is the Koch network's Americans for Prosperity.

Two Masters internal polls conducted in recent weeks show Toma, who has the support of outgoing Rep. Debbie Lesko, in third place but still within striking distance.

A survey from Fabrizio Lee that was conducted July 8 to July 9 finds Masters edging out Hamedah 27-26. Toma and former Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned from Congress following a 2017 sexual harassment scandal, respectively clock in at 17% and 16%; another 4% goes to state Sen. Anthony Kern, who was one of 11 Arizona Republicans indicted in April for serving on a slate of fake electors as part of Donald Trump's attempt to steal the 2020 election.

While Masters argued that this poll shows "this race is close, and I’ve got the momentum," Fabrizio Lee shows both Hamedah and Toma making gains since May. That last poll gave Masters a 28-16 advantage over Hamedah, with Franks grabbing 14% as Toma took just 8%.

The GOP firm Data Orbital, meanwhile, shows Masters outpacing Hamedah 23-20 as Toma and Franks respectively clock in at 17% and 13%. The poll, which was publicized by ABC 15's Garrett Archer, was conducted July 17 and 18, and the firm tells us it was conducted for Masters.

While Donald Trump is supporting Hamedah, Masters is hoping his commercials will convince voters that he's the candidate that MAGA's master is behind. A new spot features footage of Trump praising Masters as an ardent conservative and concludes with the two men smiling next to one another. The spot does not note that Trump's testimonial about this "incredible person" was filmed in 2022, when Trump endorsed Masters' failed campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly.

● MO-01: Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin reports that the pro-cryptocurrency group Fairshake has launched a $1.1 million ad campaign attacking Rep. Cori Bush ahead of her Aug. 6 Democratic primary against St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell. The opening commercial accuses Bush of "dishonesty," with the narrator declaring that the congresswoman took credit for securing billions in federal aid from bills she didn't vote for.

KSDK's Mark Maxwell reported last month that while Bush claimed to have delivered $2 billion for the 1st District, the figure includes money provided by bills that passed long before she joined Congress following her 2020 win. Bush's team pushed back and argued that because the congresswoman voted to continue those programs, she should be credited for the funds they've continued to provide. Maxwell also discovered other issues with the list provided by Bush's office, including "duplicate entries."

Fairshake's offensive makes what was already an imposing advertising advantage for Bell's side even wider. AdImpact reports that, with this new ad campaign factored in, Bell and his allies have spent or reserved $12.2 million on the air, compared to $2.1 million for Bush and her backers. The main pro-Bell group remains AIPAC's United Democracy Project affiliate, while the progressive group Justice Democrats is responsible for most of the outside spending directed toward helping Bush.

● NJ-10: Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell's chief of staff told the New Jersey Globe on Wednesday that the 87-year-old congressman remains in intensive care following his July 14 admission to St. Joseph’s Medical Center for a fever, but that doctors believe his condition is improving.

"While recovering from a respiratory infection in the hospital, Congressman Pascrell had a setback," said Ben Rich. He continued, "Since then, the medical professionals at St Joe’s have given the congressman breathing assistance and are monitoring his condition. Doctors tell us he continues to improve and remain hopeful for a complete recovery."

● NM-02: Former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell and her allies at the NRCC have released a mid-July internal poll from The Tarrance Group that shows her edging out freshman Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez 48-46 in their rematch from two years ago. This survey, which was first publicized by the National Journal, is the first we've seen of this contest all year.

President Joe Biden carried New Mexico's 2nd District, which is based in the western Albuquerque area and southern part of the state, 52-46 in 2020. Two years later, Vasquez unseated Herrell, who had been elected in a more conservative version of this constituency, by a narrow 50.3-49.7 margin.

● TN-05: The super PAC Conservatives With Character is using its newest ad to attack GOP Rep. Andy Ogles for claiming to be an economist―which is one of many apparent fabrications he's made to his life story―with the narrator declaring, "[T]he only expertise Andy Ogles has with taxes is raising yours and ignoring his own." The commercial, which shows a picture of the disgraced George Santos alongside his now-former colleague, goes on to accuse Ogles of repeatedly failing to pay his property taxes.

Conservatives With Character has spent over $380,000 so far to attack Ogles or promote his intraparty opponent, Davidson County Metro Councilmember Courtney Johnston, ahead of their Aug. 1 Republican primary battle for Tennessee's 5th District. Pro-Ogles groups have deployed around $290,000 to help him, with most of that coming from Americans for Prosperity. (Ogles is AFP's former state director.)

Johnston herself has massively outraised Ogles since she launched her campaign for this gerrymandered Middle Tennessee seat in April, but the congressman is hoping that his endorsement from Donald Trump will help him overcome the obstacles to his renomination. Ogles, who curiously spent almost nothing during the first 12 days of July, also tried to secure some free publicity for himself this week by introducing articles of impeachment against Vice President Kamala Harris―a doomed effort that comes a year after he first tried to impeach President Joe Biden and Harris.

● TX-18: Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer tells the Texas Tribune that she's considering running to succeed her fellow Democrat, the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, though she said she'd need to find out if the city's resign-to-run law would apply. Meanwhile, former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who decisively lost the March Democratic primary to Jackson Lee, said she didn't want to say anything about her political future so soon after the incumbent's death.

The leadership of the Harris County Democratic Party has until Aug. 26 to select a new nominee for the general election, but party head Mike Doyle tells the Houston Landing's Paul Cobler this decision will likely take place on Aug. 15 or Aug. 17. While it's not clear yet when any interested names would need to declare for this safely blue seat, a candidate forum is scheduled for Aug. 10.

Ballot Measures

● AR Ballot: The state Supreme Court handed Arkansans for Limited Government a partial victory on Tuesday evening when it ordered Republican Secretary of State John Thurston to tabulate the roughly 87,000 signatures that volunteers gathered to get an abortion rights amendment on the fall ballot. The decision, though, did not apply to the more than 14,100 signatures collected that Thurston disqualified on technical grounds.

AFLG needs election officials to both validate that it turned in 90,704 signatures statewide and that the campaign met certain thresholds in 50 of Arkansas' 75 counties. State law gives campaigns an extra 30 days to gather signatures if election officials say they're 75% of the way to the target both statewide and in 50 separate counties, but it's not clear if this cure period could apply to this situation.

● MT Ballot: The Montana Supreme Court on Tuesday all but ensured that voters would get the chance to decide a proposed constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights—as well as two amendments to change the state's electoral system—when it unanimously rejected a petition from Republican Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen.

Jacobsen sought to disallow signatures from "inactive" voters—those who haven't voted recently and haven't responded to attempts to confirm their address but still have valid registrations on the voter rolls. However, all three campaigns appear to have submitted enough signatures from active voters to earn their respective spots on the ballot even if Jacobsen had gotten her way.

● OH Ballot: The Ohio secretary of state's office confirmed Tuesday that a proposed state constitutional amendment to end Republican gerrymandering would appear on the ball ballot. We recently detailed how this amendment, which needs a simple majority to pass, could dramatically reshape the Buckeye State's congressional and legislative maps starting with the 2026 elections.

Legislatures

● TN State Legislature: The hard-line Club for Growth announced earlier this month that its School Freedom Fund affiliate would spend $3.6 million ahead of Tennessee's Aug. 1 primary to help five Republican legislative candidates who support using taxpayer money to pay for private schools. SFF is largely funded by Jeff Yass, a Pennsylvania-based conservative megadonor who is an ardent charter schools advocate.

The effort comes months after the Club waged a similar and largely successful campaign in Texas, though it narrowly failed to defeat state House Speaker Dade Phelan.

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Morning Digest: Landslide wins close out Hawaii’s biggest weekend primaries

Posted on by Daily Kos Elections

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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● Hawaii: The Aloha State held its primary Saturday, and we have a summary of each of the big contests below.

● HI-Gov: Lt. Gov. Josh Green defeated businesswoman Vicky Cayetano 63-21 in the primary to succeed their fellow Democrat, termed-out Gov. David Ige, while freshman Rep. Kai Kahele notched third with 15%. Green, who continued to work as a physician after going into politics, had a large media presence throughout the worst months of the pandemic, and he was the frontrunner from the start.

Green remains the favorite in November against former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, a two-time Republican nominee who scored a 50-26 victory over Ultimate Fighting Championship champion B.J. Penn. Aiona was defeated by former Rep. Neil Abercrombie 58-41 in the 2010 general election, and Aiona lost his chance for a rematch four years later when Ige beat the unpopular Abercrombie in the primary. Both parties believed that Aiona still had a real shot with another GOP wave looming and with conservative Democrat-turned-independent Mufi Hannemann threatening to siphon off votes from the Democratic ticket, but Ige turned back Aiona 49-37.

Joe Biden carried Hawaii 64-34 (he took each of the state’s two congressional districts by that same margin), and national Republicans haven’t shown any obvious sign of interest in targeting this seat again. Indeed, the RGA didn’t even respond for a Washington Post article that ran just before the primary.

● HI-01: Blue Dog Democrat Rep. Ed Case held off attorney Sergio Alcubilla by a lopsided 83-17 margin in this Honolulu-based seat. Alcubilla, who ran to Case’s left, had the backing of a few big unions, but he raised little himself and never attracted any serious outside spending.

● HI-02: Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda beat state Rep. Patrick Branco 58-25 in the Democratic primary to replace Kai Kahele in a constituency that includes northern Oahu and all of the state’s other islands.

Tokuda, who lost a tight 2018 primary to lieutenant governor to Josh Green, entered the race as the frontrunner, but a quartet of major outside groups—VoteVets, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, Web3 Forward, and Mainstream Democrats PAC— spent a total of $1.2 million to elevate Branco or attack her. While this ad barrage represented a truly massive amount for a Hawaii congressional race, it turned out to be far from enough to stop Tokuda.

Senate

● FL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Val Demings' allies at EMILY's List have publicized a poll from Change Research that shows her deadlocked 46-46 against Republican incumbent Marco Rubio, a release that came days after two progressive groups unveiled their own survey from Clarity Campaigns that found a 45-45 tie. We have not seen any independent polls of this contest since winter.  

● NC-Sen: NBC reports that Republican Ted Budd and the NRSC will launch a joint ad campaign for $750,000, which will make this Budd's first TV commercial since he won the primary all the way back in May. Democrat Cheri Beasley, by contrast, has deployed $4.7 million since she won the nomination, though the NRSC has spent $6.3 million against her.

House

● AK-AL: Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, a Republican whose city is home to about 40% of the state's population, has endorsed businessman Nick Begich III ahead of Tuesday's instant-runoff special.

Meanwhile another Republican, former state Interior Department official Tara Sweeney, announced Friday that she'd registered with the state as an official write-in candidate for the special "after repeated requests from supporters," though she said her main focus would be to advance out of the top-four primary for a full two-year term.

● FL-01: Self-funding businessman Mark Lombardo's latest commercial against Republican incumbent Matt Gaetz opens with the primary challenger declaring, "As a member of Congress, Matt Gaetz took an oath to protect America's secrets. He broke that oath when he engaged in illicit behavior on foreign soil, leaving himself vulnerable to blackmail and putting our nation's secrets at risk." Lombardo doesn't let up as the ad goes on, continuing, "To cover up, he paid pedophile Jeffrey Epstein's attorney with donors' cash and pressured Trump for a pardon for any or all crimes."

● FL-13: While 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna has always looked like the frontrunner to claim the Republican nomination again on Aug. 23 in this newly gerrymandered seat, attorney Kevin Hayslett's outside group allies are deploying a serious amount to stop her. Florida Politics reports that Stand for Florida, a PAC that was set up in February, has spent $860,000 in recent days, which takes its total investment here all the way up to $1.5 million.

Luna, though, has gotten plenty of outside help herself, as the Club for Growth has dropped over $1.8 million to promote her. Conservative Outsider PAC, which is funded in part by Club donor Dick Uihlein, is also using about $110,000 for a commercial that responds to a recent Hayslett commercial that featured a clip of Luna appearing to praise Obama. The audience sees Luna warning that undocumented immigrants will cost conservatives "this country," before the narrator notes that she's Trump's endorsed candidate.

The only recent poll we've seen here was a late July Hayslett internal that showed him trailing Luna 36-34 for this constituency in the St. Petersburg area.

● FL-23: Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz has earned endorsements from the National Education Association, the Florida Education Association, and the American Federation of Teachers ahead of this month's Democratic primary.  

● NY-01: While Nick LaLota once appeared to have a smooth path through the Aug. 23 GOP primary for this competitive open seat, the chief of staff of the Suffolk County Legislature went up with a commercial against his main intra-party rival, cryptocurrency trader Michelle Bond, earlier this month.

The narrator insists that Bond is a "liberal D.C. lobbyist" with a history of "working for Obama and Biden as a registered Democrat." The spot also declares that Bond "bankrolled a Trump-hating senator [and] lives in a mansion in the Swamp." (That last bit is a reference to Bond's newly purchased estate in Maryland, which she said is one of the "multiple residences" she has.) The rest of the ad promotes LaLota as a loyal Long Island conservative and "Trump conservative."

Bond is airing her own ads (here and here) that tout her as a conservative businesswoman, though they do not mention LaLota. Bond has used her personal wealth to decisively outpace LaLota in the money race, and the outside spending has also very much benefited her. Stand for New York, a group that hasn't gotten involved in any other races, has dropped $580,000 to attack LaLota. Another committee called Crypto Innovation PAC has also spent another $160,000 to promote Bond: The group is funded by crypto notable Ryan Salame, who just happens to be her boyfriend. (Salame has also bankrolled American Dream Federal Action, another super PAC that's gotten involved in other GOP primaries.)

LaLota has not received any super PAC aid, though he does sport endorsements from the local Republican and Conservative parties. The contest to succeed GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin also includes government relations firm executive Anthony Figliola, though he's attracted little money or attention. The winner will go up against Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, who has no Democratic primary opposition, in an eastern Long Island constituency that Biden would have carried by a tiny 49.4-49.2.

● NY-10: Attorney Dan Goldman on Saturday earned the backing of the New York Times, which is arguably one of the few newspaper endorsements still capable of moving voters in a local Democratic primary, ahead of the packed Aug. 23 contest for this safely blue seat based in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn. The Times’ nod was especially coveted here: City & State wrote earlier this month, “One campaign said they’ve probably had 20 supporters email or call members of the board to make their case,” while an unnamed operative added, “Everybody lobbies … The question is to what degree.”

Those candidates may have had good reason to lobby. City & State notes that the NYT’s endorsement last year provided a huge lift to then-Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia in the primary for mayor of New York City and helped establish her as a frontrunner. Garcia still narrowly lost the instant-runoff contest to Eric Adams, but she performed well in areas that overlap with the 10th District as well as the 12th, which is home to another big Democratic primary.

Politico's Joe Anuta also reports that Goldman has so far spent $2.8 million on TV ads, which is a truly massive sum for a campaign taking place in America's priciest media market. Goldman, though, is an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, and he has plenty of personal wealth and connections: The candidate, who would be one of the wealthiest members of Congress, has self-funded $4 million so far and raised another $1.5 million from donors through Aug. 3.  

Anuta relays that only one Goldman opponent, 17th District Rep. Mondaire Jones, has joined him on television, and he's deployed a considerably smaller $784,000. The other contenders have stayed off the airwaves, which is a common strategy for candidates running in the massive New York City media market. (Over 20 million people live in this market, and relatively few can vote in the 10th District's primary.)

"You're wasting your spending on 90% of the people who see your ad," explained Matthew Rey, a strategist who isn't involved in this race. He added, "So is it a powerful way to persuasively and effectively reach that other 10%? Yes. But dollar-for-dollar, it's a luxury." Another unaligned consultant, Basil Smikle Jr., was even more skeptical, saying, "In a congressional race where you are expecting turnout to be low, there are much more efficient ways to spend your money than doing a large broadcast buy in the last couple of weeks."

Goldman, though, is betting that voters will indeed react well to his TV spots, including a new piece touting his work in civil rights law and "leading the impeachment of Donald Trump." The commercial also displays Trump's message on his Truth Social platform (which, yes, still exists) reading, "Dan Goldman puts in his ad used in running for Congress that he 'impeached Donald Trump'" to argue, "Donald Trump doesn't want Dan Goldman in Congress, but we do."

● NY-12: The New York Times on Saturday endorsed incumbent Jerry Nadler in his Democratic primary against fellow Rep. Carolyn Maloney and attorney Suraj Patel. 

● NY-17: The New York City Police Benevolent Association, which endorsed Trump in 2020, has spent $310,000 to oppose state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi in her Democratic primary against Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. The spot labels Biaggi an “anti-police extremist,” which is the type of rhetoric Republicans usually love to throw at Democrats in general elections.

● NY-19 (special): VoteVets has launched what Politico reports is a $450,000 ad buy to aid Democrat Pat Ryan, which makes this Team Blue's first major independent expenditure ahead of an Aug. 23 special election. The narrator echoes Ryan in framing the contest as a choice between a pro-choice candidate and "a Congress that'll pass a nationwide ban on abortion first chance they get." She adds that Ryan, who served with the Army in Iraq "sure didn't fight for our freedom abroad to see it taken away from women here at home."

The NRCC, for its part, is continuing to try to frame Ryan as weak on public safety in its new spot.

● OH-09: Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur's latest commercial argues that, while she's fighting to lower drug prices, Republican J.R. Majewski "made a rap video." Yes, you read that right: The QAnon-aligned candidate did indeed star in a piece called "Let's Go Brandon Save America," and Kaptur's spot treats viewers to a mercifully small piece of it. "Not to poke fun at dementia, it's a serious disease," raps Majewski, "But come on, man, squeeze your cheeks when you sneeze." Kaptur's narrator concludes, "We don't need celebrity wannabes, we need serious leaders tackling serious challenges."

● OK-02: The newest commercial in what's turned into a very expensive Aug. 23 Republican runoff is a spot from the Club for Growth affiliate School Freedom Fund starring Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who extols former state Sen. Josh Brecheen as an ardent "Trump conservative."

This group has deployed $1.8 million during the second round to promote Brecheen, who is a former Club fellow, or rip his opponent, state Rep. Avery Fix, in the contest for this safely red eastern Oklahoma constituency. Two other organizations, Fund for a Working Congress and American Jobs and Growth PAC, have dropped a similar amount to help Frix, who outpaced Brecheen just 15-14 in late June.

Other Races

● GA Public Service Commission: On Friday, an 11th Circuit Court of Appeals panel stayed a recent lower court ruling that had blocked Georgia from holding elections this fall for two seats on its Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities, on the grounds that the statewide election method violated the Voting Rights Act by discriminating against Black voters. The district court ruling had postponed the elections until Georgia lawmakers adopted a district-based election method next year, but the appellate judges ruled that it was too close to November to implement any election changes to ongoing 2022 elections and stayed the lower court's decision while Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger's appeal is pending.

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Morning Digest: Two South Carolina Republicans who crossed Trump will learn their futures tonight

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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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Leading Off

● Primary Night: The Tark Knight Rises: We have more primary action Tuesday as voters in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina select their party's nominees. Additionally, there will be an all-party primary in Texas' 34th District to replace Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela, who resigned early to take a job at a lobbying firm. As always, we've put together our preview of what to watch.

Several House incumbents face serious primary challenges, but only northern Nevada Republican Mark Amodei is going up against an opponent as … determined as the one and only Danny Tarkanian. Tarkanian, who is the son of the late UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, unsuccessfully ran for office six times while still living in the Las Vegas area (not including abortive runs for the Senate and state board of regents), but he finally broke his legendary losing streak in 2020 by winning the job of county commissioner in his new rural home of Douglas County.

Tarkanian is hoping to avenge his many defeats by running to Amodei's right in the 2nd District, but the congressman is using every chance he has to portray his opponent as an interloper. Notability in one ad, Amodei unsubtly donned a jersey from his local alma mater―and UNLV's rival―the University of Nevada, Reno to make his case that primary voters should "stick with the home team." Back in Vegas, Democratic Rep. Dina Titus faces a primary challenge on the left from activist Amy Vilela in the 1st District, a seat that legislative Democrats made considerably more competitive in order to shore up incumbents elsewhere, while the GOP has a crowded race to take on the winner.

And over in South Carolina, Trump and his allies are targeting GOP Reps. Nancy Mace and Tom Rice in their respective primaries, with the pro-impeachment Rice looking to be the more vulnerable of the pair. If no one wins a majority of the vote in the Palmetto State, runoffs would take place two weeks later on June 28. You can find more on all these races, as well as the other big elections on Tuesday's ballot, in our preview.

Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections when polls close in South Carolina. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you'll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

Senate

● AL-Sen: Donald Trump on Saturday backed Katie Britt, the former Business Council of Alabama head he'd derided less than a year ago as "not in any way qualified" to serve in the Senate, ahead of next week's Republican runoff against Rep. Mo Brooks. Trump, though, characteristically used much of his statement to trash the congressman, whom he'd unceremoniously unendorsed in March, saying, "Mo has been wanting it back ever since-but I cannot give it to him!"

Trump made his new endorsement the day after the GOP firm JMC Analytics and Polling, surveying on behalf of unnamed "private subscribers," showed Britt ahead 51-39. Britt outpaced Brooks 45-29 last month in the first round of voting.

● AZ-Sen: While former Thiel Capital chief operating officer Blake Masters' allies have largely focused on targeting Attorney General Mark Brnovich ahead of their crowded August Republican primary, the Club for Growth has launched a new $665,000 buy attacking a different Masters rival, wealthy businessman Jim Lamon. "His company sued for stiffing contractors out of $1 million pay," the narrator says of Lamon, "Penalized six times for delinquent taxes." He continues, "But not everyone got stiffed: A group linked to Lamon gave Pelosi and the Democrats over $75,000."

● CO-Sen: Democratic Colorado's spending ahead of the June 28 Democratic primary has increased to $1.3 million, which is considerably more than the $780,000 the Colorado Sun initially reported that the super PAC was spending in an unsubtle attempt to help underfunded far-right state Rep. Ron Hanks pass wealthy businessman Joe O'Dea.

● FL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Val Demings’ campaign says it's spending eight-figures on an opening TV buy designed to insulate the former Orlando police chief from GOP attempts to caricature the congresswoman as soft on crime. After several voices extol her record reducing violent crime Demings tells the audience, "In the Senate I'll protect Florida from bad ideas, like defunding the police. That's just crazy."

● OK-Sen-B, OK-Gov: The GOP pollster Amber Integrated's newest look at the June 28 special Republican Senate primary shows Rep. Markwayne Mullin in the lead with 39%, which is below the majority he'd need to avoid an August runoff, with former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon enjoying a 19-6 edge over former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt for second. The survey also shows Gov. Kevin Stitt winning renomination with 61% despite the expensive efforts of dark money groups to bring him crashing down, while an unheralded challenger Mark Sherwood lags in second with 8%.

● WA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray has launched an early ad campaign hoping to define her only serious Republican opponent, motivational speaker Tiffany Smiley, as an ardent Trumpist before the challenger can adequately respond.

The audience sees a photo of Smiley eagerly posing with Trump in the Oval Office as audio plays of her saying, "I met with President Trump, and I was so impressed." The narrator, following footage of the Jan. 6 rioters, jumps in and highlights how Smiley "still has serious questions about the 2020 elections." Smiley is later heard saying, "I am 100% pro-life."

Governors

● MI-Gov: Wealthy businessman Perry Johnson got some more bad news Monday when a federal judge refused to halt the printing of the August Republican primary ballots that lack Johnson's name.

House

● AZ-01: After airing some positive commercials ahead of the August Republican primary, self-funder Elijah Norton is now going up with a spot highlighting the ethics problems that dogged GOP incumbent David Schweikert during his ultimately successful 2020 re-election campaign. "How could anyone vote for David Schweikert?" asks one woman, before another castmate tells the audience that the congressman "was reprimanded unanimously by Congress."

More people incredulously ask, "$250,000 in illegal contributions? A fake loan of $100,000?," before the first woman informs the audience, "Schweikert even voted against building the border wall." The second half of the commercial extols Norton as "a true conservative outsider who will secure our border."

● GA-06: School Freedom Fund, a Club for Growth ally bankrolled by conservative megadonor Jeff Yass, is spending at least $470,000 on an ad buy for next week's GOP runoff arguing that former state ethics commission chair Jake Evans is "woke." The narrator explains, "In the Race & Social Justice Law Review, Evans claimed our justice system is, quote, 'laden with racial disparities.' And Evans called for, quote, 'reallocating public funding away from criminal justice.'" The spot concludes, "Don't want to defund the police? Defeat Jake Evans."

The Club's man, physician Rich McCormick, also picked up an endorsement this week from former state Rep. Meagan Hanson, who took fourth place with 8% in the first round of voting on May 24. McCormick back then outpaced Evans, who is Trump's endorsed candidate, 43-23 in a newly gerrymandered suburban Atlanta seat.

● IL-15: The United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters Union, which often airs ads for Democratic candidates in general elections, is getting involved in the June 28 Republican primary with a spot that portrays far-right Rep. Mary Miller as a perennial tax delinquent. The narrator declares, "It was so bad that Miller had her business license revoked," before the commercial concludes with an animation of a prison door slamming in front of her. The union, which has spent $520,000 so far in this race, does not mention Miller's intra-party foe, fellow Rep. Rodney Davis.

● MN-05: Rep. Ilhan Omar has publicized an internal from Change Research that shows her turning back former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels 60-21 in the August Democratic primary.

● MS-03: Republican Rep. Michael Guest is finally going negative against Navy veteran Michael Cassidy a week after the challenger outpaced him in a 47.5-46.9 shocker in the first round of the primary. Guest's narrator declares that Cassidy "just came to Mississippi from Maryland and only registered to vote here last year" and that he was "grounded and put under an investigation" when he was a Navy Reserve pilot. She concludes, "Mississippi doesn't need a carpetbagger. We need a conservative. A conservative like Michael Guest." Guest and Cassidy will compete again in their June 28 runoff.

● NY-12: EMILY's List has endorsed Rep. Carolyn Maloney in her August Democratic primary battle against fellow veteran incumbent Jerry Nadler.

● NY-17: The Working Families Party announced Monday both that it was withdrawing its support for Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney and backing state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi's primary bid against him in the new 17th District. The WFP supported Biaggi during her successful 2018 effort to deny renomination to turncoat Democratic state Sen. Jeff Klein, a move she says "gave my campaign legitimacy."

Attorneys General

● SD-AG: Republican Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg, who pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges for striking and killing a man with his car in September of 2020 but avoided jail time, on Friday finally confirmed reports that he would not seek re-election this year. Ravnsborg made his announcement two months after the Republican-run state House voted to impeach him, and the Senate will hold its trial later in June.

In South Dakota nominees for attorney general and several other statewide offices are chosen at party conventions rather than in primaries, and the GOP's gathering is set for June 23-25. Ravnsborg was already facing serious intra-party opposition from predecessor Marty Jackley, who left office due to term limits in 2018 and unsuccessfully ran for governor that year. In addition, Dave Natvig, a top Ravnsborg deputy described by Goss as a "long-time political ally" of the incumbent, also kicked off a campaign last month, a move that foreshadowed Ravnsborg's departure.

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