Morning Digest: Wisconsin’s 2023 Supreme Court race may decide fate of abortion and gerrymandering

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

WI Supreme Court: With the conservative majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court on the line in 2023—and with it the outcomes of future battles over fair elections and abortion rights—the contest to succeed retiring conservative Justice Patience Roggensack will likely be one of the most consequential elections in any state next year.

Wednesday was the campaign launch date for conservative Waukesha County Judge Jennifer Dorow, who recently finished presiding over the high-profile trial where Darrell Brooks was sentenced to life in prison for killing six people at last year’s Waukesha Christmas parade. Dorow joins a field that includes former Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly, who is also a conservative, and two liberal-aligned candidates, Dane County Judge Everett Mitchell and Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz.

All candidates will compete on the same nonpartisan primary ballot on Feb. 21, and the top two contenders will advance to an April 4 general election alongside local elections throughout much of the state that day. Petitioning to get on the ballot starts on Dec. 1, and the filing deadline is Jan. 4.

Although Supreme Court candidates in Wisconsin don't have partisan labels on the ballot, the ideological fault lines have been clear in recent elections, which have looked very similar to partisan contests. One key difference this time, though, is that each side is fielding two candidates apiece, meaning either progressives or conservatives could snag both spots in the second round of voting.

To avoid such a lockout, both factions may try to consolidate around a single standard-bearer before the primary. One far-right billionaire is already signaling that he'll make his influence felt: Dick Uihlein, who along with his wife Elizabeth was the biggest GOP megadonor nationally in 2022, has indicated he'll spend millions backing Kelly.

The election will be pivotal, and abortion rights tops the list of reasons why. Most notably, the U.S. Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade earlier this year resurrected an 1849 Wisconsin law that makes it a felony to perform an abortion in almost all cases. Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, who narrowly won re-election in November, has filed a suit seeking to have that 19th century law ruled unenforceable, a case that will likely wind up before the state Supreme Court.

The court has also been central in the battle against GOP voter suppression efforts. In 2020, Kelly was ousted by liberal Judge Jill Karofsky in an election at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic that was plagued by exceptionally long voting lines due to the closure of most polling places. The court's conservative majority exacerbated the problem by blocking an executive order by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers to delay the election, but Kelly nonetheless lost by a wide 55-45 margin. More recently, the conservative majority ruled in favor of a ban on absentee ballot drop boxes following their widespread adoption in the 2020 elections due to the pandemic.

In addition to restrictions on voting, the court is also critical to the fate of Republican gerrymandering efforts. Heading into the current round of redistricting, Wisconsin's state government was divided, with Evers facing a legislature that Republicans dominated in large part thanks to their previous gerrymanders. When the two parties predictably deadlocked over drawing new congressional and legislative maps, the courts stepped in and took over the process, ostensibly with the aim of drawing neutral lines.

However, in another ruling along ideological lines, the court's conservative majority made up its own requirement that any new maps make only the minimum changes possible when compared to the previous maps, solely to restore population equality. Justice Brian Hagedorn, the lone conservative who is occasionally a swing vote, later sided with his three liberal colleagues to adopt new districts proposed by Evers because they moved fewer residents than GOP proposals did. However, the least-change requirement meant that even the maps proposed by the Democratic governor still heavily favored Republicans compared to their statewide vote share, effectively locking in much of the impact of the prior decade's GOP gerrymanders in all but name.

Wisconsin once again saw the dramatic effects of this rigged redistricting in action this year: Although Evers beat his GOP foe 51-48 and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson turned back his Democratic challenger 50-49, Republicans gained a two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate and fell just two seats shy of one in the Assembly. While Democrats have next to no hope of winning majorities so long as these districts stand, a more independent-minded court could overturn these maps for violating state constitutional protections and order the adoption of fairer maps that more accurately reflect Wisconsin's status as a longtime swing state.

The Downballot

Why did Democrats do so surprisingly well in the midterms? It turns out they ran really good campaigns, as strategist Josh Wolf tells us on this week's episode of The Downballot. That means they defined their opponents aggressively, spent efficiently, and stayed the course despite endless second-guessing in the press. Wolf gives us an inside picture of how exactly these factors played out in the Arizona governor's race, one of the most important Democratic wins of the year. He also shines a light on an unsexy but crucial aspect of every campaign: how to manage a multi-million budget for an enterprise designed to spend down to zero by Election Day.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, take a look at how turnout differed between Republicans and Democrats in 2022 (and why it's bad news for the GOP for 2024); why the Republican House majority is the most precarious it's been in a long time; how bonkers conspiracy theorists in a dark-red county in Arizona could flip two major races by refusing to certify their own votes; and a key special election coming up in Wisconsin that could allow Democrats to roll back the GOP's new supermajority in the state Senate.

New episodes of The Downballot come out every Thursday morning. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time.

Georgia Runoff

GA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC's Georgia Honor affiliate is deploying another $5.8 million in advertising for the final week of the runoff, and its new spot opens with the narrator proclaiming, "Herschel Walker's violence has hurt so many people." The commercial then plays clips or quotes of both the Republican's ex-wife and son saying he'd threatened to kill them, before the narrator reminds viewers, "An ex-girlfriend says Walker used threats of violence to force her to have an abortion."

Meanwhile, another SMP affiliate, Majority Forward, has announced that it's spending $11 million on a get-out-the-vote effort in partnership with America Votes. Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is also airing a minute-long ad starring former President Barack Obama, who opens, "Serious times call for special leaders."

Governors

IN-Gov, IN-Sen: Politico's Adam Wren reported Wednesday that Sen. Mike Braun filed paperwork the previous day for a potential run to succeed his fellow Republican, termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb. Braun, whose seat is also up in 2024, didn't quite commit to a bid to lead the Hoosier State, saying, "We'll talk to you down the road." Braun's chief of staff, though, sounded far more sure about his boss' plans, telling Wren, "Mike Braun has filed his paperwork to run for governor and will be making an official announcement of his candidacy very soon."

There's already plenty of talk about which Republicans could run to replace Braun in the Senate. A spokesperson for Rep. Jim Banks said last week, "He will strongly consider it if Sen. Braun runs for governor in 2024." Politico also reported back in September that fellow Rep. Victoria Spartz had told people she planned to campaign for an open seat.

It's rare for a first-term senator to leave after just one term, though Braun burned his bridges just after the election when he supported NRSC chair Rick Scott's failed effort to oust Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It's also fairly unusual for members of the upper chamber to campaign for governor, where most states have term limits for their chief executives.

Indeed, the University of Minnesota's Eric Ostermeier last year found that just three sitting senators have been elected governor during the 21st century, with Kansas Republican Sam Brownback pulling this off most recently in 2010. Louisiana Republican David Vitter also tried this career switch in 2015, but the scandal-ridden senator lost to Democrat John Bel Edwards in a true upset.

House

NJ-07: NJ Spotlight News this week asked outgoing incumbent Tom Malinowski if he planned to seek another bout against Republican Rep.-elect Tom Kean Jr., to which the Democrat responded, "I'm going to stay very very interested in the fate of our district, New Jersey, and the fight for democracy in America. I haven't decided how I'm gonna do that, but I'm certainly not going anywhere." Kean unseated Malinowski 52-48 in a constituency that Biden won 51-47.  

VA-04: Several Democrats aren't ruling out running in the upcoming special election to succeed the late Rep. Donald McEachin, though they're understandably reluctant to say much this soon after the congressman's death. It also remains to be seen how Democrats will choose their nominee for this safely blue Richmond-based seat.  

Del. Lamont Bagby told 8News of McEachin, whom he's called a father or brother figure, "I think it's a little too soon to talk about it, but there is no secret I've always wanted to follow in my big brother's footsteps." Fellow Del. Jeff Bourne likewise relayed that he was still "trying to process the immense loss of such a wonderful father, husband and public servant."

State Sen. Jennifer McClellan, who succeeded McEachin in the legislature, responded, "We're mourning him right now and that is a conversation that probably will be had eventually but I'm not prepared to have it right now." A spokesperson for Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney also declared that a special election bid "is not on the Mayor's mind at all right now."

Finally, state Sen. Joe Morrissey, who has long been one of the most unreliable Democrats in the legislature in between two different stints as an independent, said, "It's way too premature for me to say yay or nay." Morrissey, though, sounded happy where he is as the key vote in Team Blue's 21-19 majority, adding, "I will say this. I love being in the [state] Senate. I love being able to do something substantive for Virginia, and I'm not so sure that being one of 435 members would allow me to be as effective."

Mayors and County Leaders

Denver, CO Mayor: State Rep. Alex Valdez this week became the latest candidate to enter the ever-expanding April 4 nonpartisan primary to succeed Mayor Michael Hancock, a fellow Democrat who cannot seek a fourth term. "The next mayor must be able to bring progressives and moderates together to solve challenges," said Valdez, who previously founded a solar energy company.

Valdez, like several other contenders in what's now a 22 person-field, would be the second Latino elected to lead Colorado's capital and largest city; the first was Federico Peña, who won the first of his two terms in 1983. Valdez would also be the Denver's first gay mayor, a distinction he'd share with fellow state Rep. Leslie Herod.

Prosecutors

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney: The state Senate will begin its trial of Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a leading criminal justice reformer whom the outgoing GOP majority in the state House voted to impeach two weeks ago, on Jan. 18, which is after the new legislature takes office. It would take 34 senators to hit the two-thirds majority needed to remove Krasner, and since Republicans will only control 28 of the 50 seats next year, they'd need at least six Democrats to side with them.

That's a tough task, though, especially since just one Democrat, Jimmy Dillon, sided with the GOP on Tuesday on a pair of votes setting the rules for the trial. Potentially complicating things further is the fact that Republican John Gordner resigned this week halfway through his term in order to become counsel to state Senate Interim President Pro Tempore Kim Ward.

Morning Digest: Democrats will soon have the chance to undo Wisconsin GOP’s new Senate supermajority

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

WI State Senate: Though Wisconsin Republicans just captured a supermajority in the state Senate earlier this month, they could soon give it back: Just before the Thanksgiving holiday, longtime GOP state Sen. Alberta Darling announced she'd resign effective Dec. 1, a move that will require Democratic Gov. Tony Evers to call a special election.

Republicans made Darling's 8th District a few points redder under the tilted map they convinced the conservative-dominated state Supreme Court to adopt in April: Under the old lines, Donald Trump carried the 8th by a hair, 49.4 to 49.3, but the current iteration would have backed Trump 52-47, according to Dave's Redistricting App. In the just-concluded midterms, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won the district 54-46, according to our calculations, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels prevailed by a smaller 52-48 spread.

Darling won re-election for a four-year term in 2020 in the old district, but since the new map is now in effect, state constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain concludes that the new lines will likely be used. But despite the seat's GOP lean, Democrats will contest this seat to the utmost.

Republicans were able to take a two-thirds majority this year by flipping the open 25th District in the northwestern part of the state—another seat they gerrymandered—giving them 22 seats in the 33-member Senate. As a result, if Republicans in the Assembly impeach any state officials, their counterparts in the upper chamber can now remove them from office without a single Democratic vote. And if they were to impeach Evers, he'd be suspended from office until the end of a trial in the Senate, which Republicans could try to drag out even if they lack the votes to convict.

Rolling back this supermajority will therefore be critical for Democrats. One thing working in the party's favor is the fact that the suburbs and exurbs north of Milwaukee where Darling's district is based have been moving to the left in recent years—a key reason Republicans tried to gerrymander this seat further. One potentially strong option, however, has already said no: state Rep. Deb Andraca, who represents a third of the district, took herself out of the running on Monday.

Since Wisconsin "nests" three Assembly districts in each Senate district, there are two other seats that make up the 8th, both held by Republicans. One, Dan Knodl, says he's "seriously considering" a campaign; the other, Janel Brandtjen, doesn't appear to have said anything yet. (Brandtjen, an election denier, was recently barred from private meetings of the Assembly GOP caucus after supporting a primary challenge to Speaker Robin Vos.)

It's not clear when exactly the special will be held, but in her statement declining a bid, Andraca suggested it would take place "this spring." Wisconsin is set to hold its annual "spring election" for state and local offices on April 4, so this race could potentially be consolidated with those contests.

Election Recaps

AK-Sen, AK-AL, AK-Gov: Alaska conducted instant-runoff tabulations one day before Thanksgiving, and Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola each won re-election after their respective opponents failed to consolidate enough support to pull ahead. Hardline GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy, meanwhile, claimed a bare majority of the first-choice preferences, so election officials did not do the ranked choice process for his race.

Murkowski held a tiny 43.4-42.6 edge over intra-party rival Kelly Tshibaka, a former state cabinet official backed by Donald Trump, with Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley taking 10% and 3%, respectively. But Murkowski, who has crossed party lines on some high-profile votes, always looked likely to take the bulk of Chesbro's support, and she emerged with a clear 54-46 win when tabulations were complete.

Tshibaka responded to her defeat by blasting Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's allies at the Senate Leadership Fund for deploying "millions of dollars in this race on deceptive ads to secure what he wanted—a Senate minority that he can control, as opposed to a majority he could not." Trump weeks before the election also ranted that "[t]he Old Broken Crow, Mitchell McConnell, is authorizing $9 Million Dollars to be spent in order to beat a great Republican" rather than target Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, though SLF itself only ended up spending $6.1 million in Alaska.

Peltola, meanwhile, began Wednesday with 49% of the vote while two Republican rivals, former reality TV star Sarah Palin and businessman Nick Begich III, clocked in at 26% and 23%; the balance went to Libertarian Chris Bye. While Palin had announced her chief of staff the day after the election, reality made his services unnecessary: Peltola ended up beating Palin by a staggering 55-45 after the instant-runoff process was finished, a big shift from her 51.5-48.5 upset win in their August special election contest. Peltola will be one of five House Democrats in a Trump seat in the 118th Congress, and hers will be the reddest of the bunch.

Dunleavy, finally, claimed an outright win with 50.3%. His two main rivals, former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara and former independent Gov. Bill Walker, took 24% and 21%, respectively, while the remainder went to Republican Charlie Pierce, who was challenging the already staunchly conservative Dunleavy from the right. Gara and Walker both said they'd be ranking the other as their second choice, but we don't know how many of their respective supporters followed their lead.

Seattle, WA Ballot: Seattle has narrowly voted to replace its municipal top-two primaries with a ranked choice system by 2027, though voters will still need to go to the polls in two different elections even after the switch takes place.

Candidates for mayor, city attorney, and the City Council will continue to compete on one nonpartisan primary ballot, but voters will be able to rank their preferred choices instead of selecting just one option. The two contenders who emerge with the most support after the ranked choice tabulations are completed will advance to the general election, where voters would select just one choice. This is different from several other American cities like Minneapolis, Oakland, and San Francisco where all the contenders compete in a single election decided through instant-runoff voting.

It's not clear yet if the new ranked choice system will be in place in time for Seattle's next mayoral race in 2025. A spokesperson for King County's elections department explained that software and ballot updates, as well as tests and voter education, will be needed, saying, "It is possible that we may be able to roll it out before 2027, but until we're able to dive into the details with the city and state, we won't know." Officials also will need to decide how many candidates a voter can rank.

Seattleites earlier this month were presented with a two-part ballot measure called Proposition 1. The first asked voters whether they wanted to replace the top-two primary for city offices, and voters answered in the affirmative by a 51-49 margin. They were then asked if they wanted to adopt ranked choice voting or approval voting if voters on part one favor changing the status quo, and ranked choice won 76-24.

This contest took place because backers of approval voting collected enough signatures for a referendum to bring it to the Emerald City: The approval voting system, which is used in St. Louis, allows voters to cast as many votes as there are candidates, with up to one vote per contender and each vote counting equally. The City Council, though, responded by also placing a ranked choice question on the ballot as a rival option.

The group supporting approval voting enjoyed a huge financial edge thanks to enormous contributions from the Center for Election Science, a pro-approval voting organization funded by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, as well as now-former cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried: The dramatic failure of Bankman-Fried's preferred option, though, turned out to be far from the worst news he got in mid-November.

Georgia Runoff

GA-Sen: AdImpact tells Politico that Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and his outside group allies have outspent Republican Herschel Walker’s side by a lopsided $31 million to $12 million from Nov. 9 to Nov. 28 on TV, radio, and digital ads. The GOP has a $7 million to $5 million advantage in ad time for the remaining week of the contest, though this number can change if new spots are purchased.

Warnock’s campaign alone has outpaced Walker $15 million to $5 million through Monday, an important advantage since FCC regulations give candidates—but not outside groups—discounted rates on TV and radio. The senator was able to amass this sort of spending lead because he’s also continued to overwhelm Walker in the fundraising department: Warnock outraised his foe $51 million to $20 million from Oct. 20 to Nov. 16 and concluded that period with a $30 million to $10 million cash-on-hand lead.

Warnock’s supporters at the Senate Majority PAC affiliate Georgia Honor also outspent their GOP counterparts at the Senate Leadership Fund $13 million to $5 million, though SLF is hoping one prominent surrogate will help them overcome that disadvantage. Just before Thanksgiving the group debuted a spot starring Gov. Brian Kemp, who won re-election outright 53-46 on Nov. 8 as Walker lagged Warnock 49.4-48.5: While Kemp didn’t campaign with the Senate nominee during the first round, he now pledges to the audience, “Herschel Walker will vote for Georgia, not be another rubber stamp for Joe Biden.”

Walker also has benefited from a $1.5 million ad buy from the NRA that began shortly ahead of Thanksgiving. The candidate additionally is running his own ad attacking Warnock’s character.

Senate

OH-Sen: Axios published a profile of venture capitalist Mark Kvamme last week where it briefly noted the Republican "also acknowledges that he's had informal talks about running for public office, possibly as a challenger to Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2024."

Senate: The Associated Press' Michelle Price takes a very early look at the 2024 Senate battleground map and gives us some new information in several key races:

NV-Sen: Army veteran Sam Brown, who lost this year's Senate primary 56-34 after running an unexpectedly well-funded campaign against frontrunner Adam Laxalt, is being mentioned as a prospective foe against Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen. A Brown advisor didn't rule anything out, saying, "He has committed to his supporters that he will never stop fighting for their issues, but he has not made any decisions as to whether that involves a future run for office."

PA-Sen: Neither former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick nor Big Lie spreader Kathy Barnette, who both lost this year's Senate primary to Mehmet Oz, would respond to Price's inquiries about a campaign against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. An unnamed person close to McCormick told Politico all the way back in June that he was considering the idea.

UT-Sen: An advisor for Attorney General Sean Reyes said of a possible GOP primary challenge to incumbent Mitt Romney, "He's certainly set up to run, but it does not mean he's considering it." The Deseret News wrote earlier this month that Reyes was "actively pursuing a campaign" against Romney, who has not announced if he'll seek a second term.

WI-Sen: GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher deflected Price's questions about his interest in taking on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, merely saying, "Any talk of the next election, especially since we just had an election, distracts from the serious work we need to do."

Governors

KY-Gov: Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, who just months ago expressed interest in running for governor of Kentucky, has very firmly taken himself out of the running by accepting the post of health commissioner of Tennessee.

LA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser told the Lafayette Daily Advertiser's Greg Hilburn on Sunday that it "will absolutely make a difference in my decision" whether or not his fellow Republican, Sen. John Kennedy, runs in next year's all-party primary. Nungesser, though, seems to think that Kennedy will make his plans known in the next month-and-a-half, because he says his own announcement will come Jan. 10.

Hilburn also relays that another Republican, Rep. Garret Graves, "will also likely wait on Kennedy to make a final decision." However, he notes that Graves may opt to stay put no matter what due to his rising status in the House leadership.

House

NM-02: Outgoing GOP incumbent Yvette Herrell last week filed FEC paperwork for a potential 2024 rematch against Democratic Rep.-elect Gabe Vasquez, who unseated her 50.3-49.7. These super-early filings from defeated candidates, as we recently noted, often have more to do with resolving financial matters from their last campaign than they do about the future, though the Republican hasn't said anything publicly over the last week about her plans.

Herrell may also be hoping for a favorable ruling from the state Supreme Court, which will hear oral arguments in January in a case brought by Republicans alleging that the congressional map violates the state constitution as a partisan gerrymander. Herrell lost this month's contest to Vasquez in a constituency that favored Biden 52-46.

VA-04: Democratic Rep. Don McEachin, who has represented Virginia’s 4th Congressional District since 2017, died on Monday night at the age of 61 due to colorectal cancer. We will have a detailed look at his career in the next Digest.

Legislatures

AK State Senate, AK State House: Following Wednesday's tabulation of ranked-choice votes in races where no candidate won a majority on Nov. 8, nine Democrats and eight Republicans in Alaska's state Senate announced the formation of a bipartisan majority coalition, similar to one that held sway in the chamber from 2007 to 2012. The situation in the House, however, remains uncertain.

The alliance ends a decade of Republican control over the Senate, though GOP Sen. Gary Stevens will hold the top role of president, a position he served in during the last bipartisan coalition. That leaves just three far-right Republicans out in the cold; Stevens said they've been "difficult to work with" and specifically cited the fact that they've voted against state budgets their own party had crafted. (Members of the majority are required to vote for the budget, a system known as a "binding caucus" whose enforcement is evidently now being given effect.)

The House has likewise been governed by a shifting consortium of Democrats, independents, and Republicans since 2017, but it's not clear whether such an arrangement will continue. While Republicans lost two seats in the Senate, they retained nominal control of 21 seats in the House—theoretically enough for a bare majority. One of those, however, belongs to House Speaker Louise Stutes, a member of the current coalition, while another is represented by David Eastman, a member of the far-right Oath Keepers who is disliked by many fellow Republicans for his obstructionism.

There are many possible permutations that could result in either side winding up in charge. One big question mark is state Rep. Josiah Patkotak, a conservative independent and coalition member who could potentially join forces with the GOP. Another is the 15th District, where Republican Rep. Tom McKay leads Democrat Denny Wells by just four votes after ranked-choice tabulations; Wells says he will likely seek a recount after results are certified on Tuesday.

Whatever happens, we could be in for a long wait: Following both the 2018 and 2020 elections, alliances in the House weren't finalized until February, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar delay this time.

NH State House: Control of the New Hampshire state House remains up in the air after a wild election night and even wilder post-election period that saw Democrats make big gains and left Republicans with just a 201-198 advantage—plus one tied race that could get resolved in a special election.

Even though the GOP will hold a bare majority no matter what happens, that may not be enough to elect a Republican speaker when the chamber—the largest state legislative body in the nation—is sworn in on Dec. 7. Absences are frequent in this part-time legislature, where lawmakers are paid just $100 a year and receive no per diem. Given that reality, a different majority could show up every time the House convenes, a truly chaotic situation that could result in a new speaker every time unless the parties hammer out a power-sharing agreement.

Members will also have to decide what to do in Strafford District 8 (known locally as Rochester Ward 4), which ended in a tie following a recount after election night results put Republican challenger David Walker up just a single vote on Democratic state Rep. Chuck Grassie. The House could simply vote to seat whichever candidate it likes in a raw display of partisan power, or it could order a special election, as was done on at least three prior occasions. In one bizarre case in 1964, however, legislators opted to seat both candidates in a tied race—and gave them half a vote each.

In the event of a special election, though, expect both sides to go all out, especially given the swingy nature of this district, which would've voted 51-47 for Joe Biden. And expect more specials in the near future either way, as resignations are also a regular occurrence in the New Hampshire House.

VA State House, Where Are They Now?: Former Rep. Tom Garrett, a Republican who dropped out of his 2018 bid for a second term in bizarre fashion after winning renomination, has announced that he'll run in next year's race for a safely red open seat in the state House. Garrett, who previously served in the state Senate, kicked off his campaign at the Virginia Civil Rights Monument on the state Capitol grounds in Richmond rather than in the rural 56th District to what the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Charlotte Rene Woods calls a "crowd of five."

Garrett said he was choosing that monument both because he admires Barbara Johns, one of the Civil Rights heroes depicted, and because this was the very place he ended his 2018 re-election campaign. The Republican back then disclosed he was leaving Congress to focus on his fight with alcoholism, and he now says, "I haven't had to drink in four-and-a-half years. As soon as I start declaring victory over anything, it will come back and tap me on the shoulder."

Garrett, though, doesn't appear to have mentioned how the House Ethics Committee issued a lengthy report on his final day in office determining that he'd violated House rules by directing his staff to run personal errands for him. Staffers also told the committee that the congressman's wife "would berate staff, often using profanity and other harsh language, for failing to prioritize her needs over their regular official duties." The report additionally accused the Garretts of deliberately dragging their feet during the investigation so that they could run out the clock and avoid censure before the congressman's term expired.

Mayors and County Leaders

Allegheny County, PA Executive: Pittsburgh City Controller Michael Lamb announced Monday that he would compete in what could be a busy May 2023 Democratic primary to succeed incumbent Rich Fitzgerald, who cannot seek a fourth term as head of this populous and reliably blue county. Lamb, who is the uncle of outgoing Rep. Conor Lamb, carried Allegheny County 77-12 in his 2020 primary for state auditor general even as he was losing statewide 36-27 to Nina Ahmad. (Ahmad in turn lost to Republican Timothy DeFoor.)

WESA reporter Chris Potter describes the city comptroller as "the rare politician who travels easily in Democratic Party circles while also having been an outspoken government reformer," noting that, while he's "not necessarily a political firebrand," Lamb "seems likely to incorporate some progressive concerns with county government, especially on matters of criminal justice." Lamb previously won renomination in 2015 by beating back a Fitzgerald-endorsed foe, and Potter says the two have a "wary relationship."

Lamb's only announced intra-party opponent is Erin McClelland, who came nowhere close to unseating GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in her 2014 and 2016 campaigns for the old and dark red 12th Congressional District. McClelland, who has worked as a project manager for the county's social-services department, kicked off her bid in August by saying she expected to face both the "old-boys network" and opponents who "dive into performative propaganda on a social media post."

Potter also relays that observers anticipate that former County Councilor David Fawcett and state Rep. Sara Innamorato will compete in the Democratic primary. Fawcett, whom Potter calls a "celebrated attorney," served on the Council as a Republican from 2000 to 2007 before waging an aborted 2016 bid for the Democratic nomination for attorney general.

Innamorato, for her part, rose to prominence in 2018 when the Democratic Socialists of America member defeated incumbent Dom Costa for renomination; that victory came the same night that her ally Summer Lee, who was also backed by DSA, scored an upset of her own against another Costa brother, state Rep. Paul Costa. Innamorato went on to support now-Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey and Lee in her own successful 2022 campaign for the new 12th District.

We unsurprisingly haven't seen any notable Republicans mentioned for the race to lead a county that Biden took 59-39 and where Team Blue did even better in this year's Senate and governor races. Republican James Roddey actually did win the 1999 contest for what was a newly created office, but he badly lost re-election four years later to Democrat Dan Onorato. The GOP hasn't come anywhere close to retaking the post since then, and Fitzgerald won his final term in 2019 in a 68-32 landslide.  

Philadelphia, PA Mayor: Former Municipal Court Judge Jimmy DeLeon, who recently retired after 34 years on the bench, announced shortly before Thanksgiving that he was joining the May 2023 Democratic primary, promising to be a "no-shenanigans-let's-follow-the-law-there-will-be-order-in-the-courtroom" mayor. Billy Penn says that there was little chatter about DeLeon running until he jumped in last week.  

DeLeon, who unsuccessfully ran for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and state Superior Court during the 2000s, was sanctioned by the Court of Judicial Discipline in 2008 for issuing "a bogus 'stay away order' on behalf of a social acquaintance." DeLeon says of that incident, "I made a mistake, and I was given a second chance … That's why I believe in second chances."

The Downballot: The last results of 2022 and looking toward 2024 (transcript)

Election season overtime is finally winding down, so Democratic operative Joe Sudbay joins David Nir on The Downballot as a guest-host this week to recap some of the last results that have just trickled in. At the top of the list is the race for Arizona Attorney General, where Democrat Kris Mayes has a 510-vote lead with all ballots counted (a mandatory recount is unlikely to change the outcome). Also on the agenda is Arizona's successful Proposition 308, which will allow students to receive financial aid regardless of immigration status.

Over in California, Democrats just took control of the Boards of Supervisors in two huge counties, Riverside and Orange—in the case of the latter, for the first time since 1976. Joe and David also discuss which Democratic candidates who fell just short this year they'd like to see try again in 2024, and what the GOP's very skinny House majority means for Kevin McCarthy's prospects as speaker.

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

David Nir:

Hello and welcome. I'm David Nir, political director of Daily Kos. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from senate to city council. We wanted to thank you because The Downballot just crossed the 1,000 subscriber mark on Apple podcasts. We are really grateful to all of our listeners for helping us hit this big milestone. My co-host David Beard is off this week, but joining me on the program today as guest host is Democratic operative Joe Sudbay, who you may remember because he subbed in for me on a previous episode. We'll be talking about the Attorney General's race in Arizona, which just got called for the Democrat as well as Proposition 308, which allows students to receive financial aid regardless of immigration status. Then we'll head over to California to discuss two huge counties that both saw their Boards of Supervisors flip to Democratic control this year.

And with the battle for the House winding down, we want to mention a couple of Democrats who fell just short this year, but that we'd love to see try again in 2024. And finally, we will discuss what the GOP's very small margin in the house means for Kevin McCarthy's prospects of becoming Speaker. We have a supremely fun show for you ahead, so please stay with us.

Well, I am so excited for today's show because I get to invite on to guest host with me, Joe Sudbay, democratic operative, a very, very astute political observer, and also a frequent host on Sirius XM. He has had me on various shows on the radio before, so now finally getting to turn the tables. Joe, it is so great to have you back here on The Downballot.

Joe Sudbay:

It is very exciting to be back. And David, I was thinking the last time we spoke was about 4:00 AM Eastern time on November 9th when I was doing the overnight coverage on Sirius XM Progress. And you texted that you were still up and I said, "Let's talk." We had so much fun that that morning it was terrific.

David Nir:

Joe, I was so tired and also so pumped in a way that I just never expected because I think we all pretty much thought election night was kind of going to suck, if not worse, and then it turned out to be awesome.

Joe Sudbay:

It was so awesome and it just kept getting better too. I mean, we thought we wouldn't have a call in the Pennsylvania race for days in the Senate race and there it was at one o'clock Eastern. It was terrific, and the House races, there were so many house races that I was keeping an eye on that the kind of the DC pundits and prognosticators were predicting were going to go Republican. Starting in Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district, they were convinced, the New York Times was convinced, Allan Fung was going to win the Republican. He didn't; Seth Magaziner pulled it out. The races in New Hampshire, those really set the tone for the rest of the evening. Both the Senate and the two House races in New Hampshire, big wins up there and it just really set the tone. It really was a fun night. I feel like we're still riding the wave.

David Nir:

We still are. Overtime is now entering its third week, but we just finally wrapped up the vote counting in a huge, huge race that would be a flip for Democrats if it stands up. So we obviously have to talk about what just happened in Arizona in the Attorney General's race.

Joe Sudbay:

Yes. On Monday the final votes came in the Attorney General's race and Kris Mayes, the Democrat is ahead by 510 votes over Republican Abraham Hamadeh. Now this was ... remember Democrats won the governor's race, they won the Senate race, they won the Secretary of State's race. This one was closer than all of them, but it's a really important win. It's a flip if it holds up. You mentioned there will be a recount, a mandatory recount because it is so close, but there are a lot of experts, including Nathaniel Rakich who was on the show, The Downballot, the last time I was hosting. He noted that the median shift in statewide recounts since 2000 is about 267 votes.

So it does look good, but I just was very excited about this one. Hamadeh is really, he's an extremist. He would've fit right in with the Ken Paxtons and now Kris Kobach, who's the AG up in Kansas. That kind of extremist ran really ugly ads, ran using the invasion rhetoric about immigrants on the border. And defeating him, it's just so sweet and let's just hope it holds. As the recount goes through, we'll know that after December 5th.

David Nir:

What makes this even more amazing as Axios reporter Jeremy Duda pointed out, this is the first time since 1978 that Democrats in Arizona will have won the governorship, the Secretary of State's office, and the Attorney General's post. It is remarkable that the top offices, both Senate seats as well, in this state that was a red state for such a long time, the home of Barry Goldwater and one of the cradles of modern day conservatism, is now blue. And of course, it's only really, really light blue. A lot of these races were really, really close. But now that Democrats hold all these posts, we can be pretty darn sure that Republicans, no matter how hard they try, are not going to be able to steal Arizona for Donald Trump '24.

Joe Sudbay:

That's really important. And the other thing is, I know we always say this, we always say every vote counts, but in a state where two and a half million people voted, over two and a half million people voted, the race for Attorney General is 510 votes. Every vote does matter. Republicans have done so much over the years and around the country to prevent people from participating in the electoral process. They don't want you to vote, but voting really matters. And we will now have a Secretary of State and an Attorney General in Arizona who believe in voting, who believe in the integrity of the electoral process. That is really, really super important.

David Nir:

Well, maybe the most amazing thing that Republicans have done to suppress the vote is to literally kill their own voters by promoting vaccine skepticism, hostility, and refusal. Now, I think it got really overblown by a lot of folks the extent to which the COVID death gap might have played a role in the 2022 midterms. But healthcare writer Charles Gaba has tracked this sort of thing very, very closely and has come up with estimates of the excess number of deaths of Republican voters compared to Democratic voters across the country and state by state that have found support in other studies by other organizations.

And so he specifically took a look at Arizona and according to his conclusions, which seemed quite strong to me, there were probably about 4,000 excess Republican deaths compared to Democrats in Arizona as a result of COVID vaccine refusal, or at least in large part because of that. And like you just said, Joe, 510 votes, well that's smaller than 4,000. What a bitter and sad way to lose. But we warned about this. We told them not to do this. You're killing off your own voters if for no other reason than that you should encourage them to get vaccinated. Well, they didn't and here we are.

Joe Sudbay:

Absolutely right. It's not surprising, but it is surprising and it's still stunning. It brings you back to those days and we're still in a lot of COVID denial, but I... Also, Charles Gaba, shout out to him because he's one of the only other people who really focuses on downballot races, trying to raise money for them and I appreciate that because not enough people do as you and I have discussed many times.

David, I want to stick in Arizona because there was a ballot measure that I just have to say it's near and dear to my heart. Proposition 308. It allows for in-state tuition for non-citizens of Arizona. It was in 2004, Arizona passed a proposition that prevented essential services being provided to undocumented people living in the state. It was one of those vindictive things that a lot of Arizona Republicans did. You mentioned last week when you were talking with David Beard, you were talking about Arizona, SB 1070, that horrific papers-please law, that really set in motion a lot of organizing that really has gotten us to the point where we were able to have the elections we had this cycle.

And Prop 308 passed 51-49, a little over 51-49, a really big win. It was put on the ballot through the legislature, which was a Republican-controlled legislature in both the House and the Senate. Reyna Montoya and Jose Patino, they are founders of a group called Aliento Arizona. They worked it through the legislature; they went through several sessions trying to get it on the ballot. They were rebuffed repeatedly and told it couldn't happen, it wouldn't happen, not to do it. They got it on the ballot, a big win. And what's really remarkable about it is I do a lot of work in the immigration world and Arizona really has been ground zero in many ways. Starting with prop, I mean SB 1070, but the ads this cycle from the likes of Blake Masters and Kari Lake were so vicious and so horrible and so xenophobic that it didn't work. It didn't work. Pile on top of their ads Stephen Miller with his probably a hundred million-dollar super PAC of just pure-

David Nir:

I even got one of Stephen Miller's stupid mailers. I live in New York City.

Joe Sudbay:

They spent so much money ... I was driving up the Interstate 95 from Boston to Portland, and there were billboards all through New Hampshire with horrific messages. Now I knew what they meant because I was like, "Uh-huh. That's going to be a Stephen Miller. It was Citizens for Safety." They spent tons of money in Arizona and lost.

This is the issue. It does set the stage. We know that the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Program, DACA, is on life support. The federal district court judges that were handpicked by Ken Paxton and other GOP AGs are going to get it found unconstitutional. They've got a case moving up to the Supreme Court. We have the next few weeks in Congress to maybe get it done.

I think that Prop 308 give a lot of impetus to showing that voters actually do care about this even when there's a deluge of money spent against it. So big shout out to everyone who worked on it, particularly Reyna and Jose. I love them. They are total badasses. They have made the world a better place for so many young people in their state.

David Nir:

It really is amazing. To pick up on something you said, Joe, Republicans were so sure, so sure, that they were never going to have to pay a price for their extremism. To be honest, I really wondered if they would myself. The traditional media has done such an abysmal job abetting them, because this whole supposed neutral journalism, both sides journalism makes it seem, well ...

“Democrats say that migrants are human. Republicans disagree.” I mean that's essentially where we are on most issues, and they paid a price. No matter what happens in every election for the rest of my life, I will always remember this and be grateful that they were so disgusting and extreme that there were voters in the middle who said, "No, this is just too much." I think Arizona, almost from top to bottom, is almost the perfect example of exactly that rejection of extremism.

Joe Sudbay:

Yeah, just one ... I agree with that wholeheartedly. As much as they attacked immigrants, they also attacked trans kids. I mean among the most vulnerable people in our population. It was so vicious and so cruel, and that didn't work either.

I will say, David, I saw reporters on Capitol Hill saying that Stephen Miller walked into Kevin McCarthy's office last week, obviously to plan more strategy. This week, Kevin McCarthy is down on the border doing more photo ops and stunts.

Stephen Miller still controls the GOP message. And you know what I say? Keep listening to him, Republicans. The really serious problem is that there's a death count attached with their ugly messaging. That is something that the media ... And also, David, the media has responsibility for it and culpability. But every corporate PAC that donates to Republicans who run those ads own it, too.

David Nir:

Yeah. I mean what just happened in Colorado Springs, it's on them. What happened at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, it's on them. We could spend another hour reciting all the things that are on them. So as much as their hateful rhetoric might be harming them at the ballot box, it's also harming real people and, like you said, leading to a death count. For that reason, we can never cheer it on. I think everyone listening also knows that. It's a disgusting phenomenon and we need to fight it and beat it back however we possibly can.

Joe Sudbay:

We did beat it back this year, David, at the ballot box. We've got to keep that up because that's how we do it more than any other way.

David Nir:

Absolutely. I mean that's something that you and I have always been devoted to. The most important thing that we can do as activists is beat them at the ballot box and win power from top to bottom. That's perfect segue for us to talk about a couple of totally different races, a little bit further to the west, in California, where Democrats won some amazing successes.

So Orange County, that, of course, is the hugely populous county in Southern California that has been talked about quite a lot in recent years, particularly starting in 2018, when Democrats flipped a large number of House districts in the area. They gave some of them back in 2020.

But the long-term trends in Orange County, don't call it the OC, are heading Democrats' way. We know this because this year, for the first time since 1976, Democrats managed to take control of the board of supervisors in Orange County. They now have a three to two majority.

In fact, prior to 2018, it was a 5-0 Republican board. Just to put that in a little further context, since 1936 when FDR won his massive landslide first reelection, no Democrat for president won Orange County until Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Since 2016, that was only six years ago, Democrats have now flipped the county board of supervisors.

That's not the only big county in the region where they've had success. In fact, in Riverside County, which is not too far away, Democrats also just took a majority of the board of supervisors. Strangely enough, the head of the board was a Libertarian, believe it or not, who might actually have been the highest ranking Libertarian elected official in the country. Anyhow, Democrats managed to beat him. And so, they have a 3-2 majority on that board as well.

What's really remarkable is that Democrats actually lost both counties in every statewide race in California this year, but still showed enough local strength that they flipped both of these boards.

There's also something else that I want to add. There are a lot of election analysts out there who love to obsess over counties. They talk about Republicans winning so many more counties than Democrats. This is certainly something favored on the right as well. There's Donald Trump's ridiculous stupid map that he supposedly printed out and gave to reporters. Donald Trump Jr. saying, "Impeach this," showing all the red counties and the tiny little blue slivers. Of course, anyone with any sense knows that that's BS because land doesn't vote. People do.

But let's talk about people. Riverside and Orange County are enormous. Riverside has 2.4 million people. It's the tenth largest county in the country. Orange County has 3.2 million people. It's the sixth largest county in the country.

So when we talk about Republicans flipping counties, it's almost always these really small counties. There was a lot of obsession about some small border counties in Texas in 2020. But let's talk about the Riversides and the Oranges, because that's where the people are.

Joe Sudbay:

Absolutely. It's really a big event when these things happen at the local level. Tip O'Neill famously said all politics is local. Again, Democrats winning at the local level, it creates a farm team; it creates good policy; it creates a record to show they deliver. Those are the hardest jobs, many of those are the hardest jobs, because you have to deliver for your constituents. I'm really excited about this.

David, I've been around politics for a while. I knew about Orange County because of Ronald Reagan. I knew we were going to be talking about it, so I was Googling around to see one of Reagan's last appearances as President. It was at a campaign rally in Fullerton, Colorado in 1988. The first lines, he said, "You are living proof of something I have said over and over. Orange County is where the good Republicans go before they die."

Well, okay. Okay. Okay, Ronald Reagan. I just love the fact that this county that Ronald Reagan loved so dearly is turning blue. Thank you to everyone who made it happen.

David Nir:

Well, and also let's not forget who else is from Orange County. Richard Nixon-

Joe Sudbay:

Oh my goodness.

David Nir:

... from Yorba Linda.

Joe Sudbay:

Yes.

David Nir:

I mean I love the thought of Nixon spinning in his grave right now.

Joe Sudbay:

It's so great. It's the changing America, and California has been on the forefront of it. When I was doing politics back in the day, California had Republican governors. Deukmejian, Pete Wilson, Republican Senators. They had some of the worst congressmen, Bob Dornan, who was one of the most vile congressmen to come out of any state. Then, of course, you can't-

David Nir:

Oh, B-1 Bob.

Joe Sudbay:

Right? And Dana Rohrabacher who was there until recently. I mean it's really great to see what's happened in that state. I keep hearing Republicans around the country say, "We don't want to be like California." It's a state with one of the best economies in the world. It feeds the world. It's got Silicon Valley. You could be so lucky, Texas, you could be so lucky, Florida, to be California.

David Nir:

I couldn't agree more. I certainly love it out there myself. Joe, since we're talking about Riverside County, there's a House race that's on my mind. At Daily Kos Elections, we asked on Twitter this week, which unsuccessful democratic candidates for House this year should try again in 2024? And we got a lot of really great engagement, a lot of excellent ideas. And one of the names that came up most frequently was Will Rollins, who ran against Ken Calvert in California's 41st district, which is based in Riverside. And I thought he ran a great campaign, and I know you would love to see him try again in two years' time.

Joe Sudbay:

Just a terrific candidate. He's gay, first-time candidate at this level, ran a terrific race. It was an uphill fight. Always is, running against an incumbent. And especially, remember this year was supposed to be a terrible year. He came very close to pulling it off. And I actually think when candidates lose and they run at this level, it's actually a good training ground. And I hope he does run again. He lost by just about 10,000 votes, and we know there will be bigger turnout in 2024. I'm really hoping Will Rollins runs again. I was just impressed with him. I was following that campaign pretty closely. It includes Palm Springs, which is a big LGBTQ hangout, and I think Will is definitely someone I hope runs again.

David Nir:

Yeah, it was 52-48. This district changed a whole lot. Ken Calvert had never had to run in a competitive district before. It still favored Trump slightly. But like you said, I think that the higher turnout in a presidential year should really offer a boost here. And one thing that I've heard, it might be a little bit of a wistful silver lining for a lot of candidates, but the best way to learn how to run a winning campaign, is to run a losing campaign. I mean, there is no experience in the world, in the world, that can prepare you for what it is like to run for office, especially federal office. These hugely expensive campaigns, meeting so many thousands and thousands of potential constituents, being in the spotlight, the glare of the media.

And there is nothing that can prepare you for that other than actually running for office. And of course, every first-time candidate wants to win their first time out. No one's stupid. But Rollins now has a level of experience that really few people have had. And I think his performance also should open eyes, and that he should get a lot more support from DC than he did this time because he really proved that he can run a real race and this is a competitive seat.

Joe Sudbay:

It's really important. And I feel like he learned a lot. He impressed us and hopefully moving forward, like you said, the national Democrats who can control a lot of money spigots, see how close he came and how much of a great candidate he was. David, there's another race that I hope that the Democrat who didn't succeed, runs again. And that's in Arizona's first congressional district. The Democrat is Jevin Hodge. I got to interview Jevin over the summer when I was on Sirius XM Progress. I was so impressed with him.

And I was following his campaign and checking it out and watching his ads. And there just was this sense of energy and a rarity that you'd find in the campaign, but joy. It just looked like they were having a great time and they knew their mission. He was running against David Schweikert, Republican, who's had some serious ethical issues. He lost by just a couple thousand votes. And again, one of these candidates who came so close. And I hope that people can look at this race too and realize this is a great recruit. Let's get him to do it again. I was just super impressed.

David Nir:

Yeah, I think also this is an area in the Phoenix suburbs that is probably trending our way. And Hodge would be the first Black member of Congress in Arizona history. So that would certainly be a nice first to make. And yeah, I really think he would also be an excellent candidate to run again. And on that Twitter thread, like I said, we got a lot of great suggestions. Democrats really had a pretty strong recruiting class this year, especially given that we were headed into a midterm and people thought it was going to be like any other midterm. I think recruiting is going to be incredible for '24 because everyone, including Republicans, believes that Democrats could take back the house in two years.

Joe Sudbay:

Absolutely right. And there were some very, very close races in California, in Arizona as we've mentioned. But across the country there were close races. Obviously your home state of New York. There were some very close races that need to be rectified in 2024.

David Nir:

Yes.

Joe Sudbay:

And it does say a lot about candidate quality. We talked a lot about candidate quality at the Senate level, but I was able to meet a lot of these House candidates, and I was so impressed. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez up in WA-03. Terrific candidate.

David Nir:

Oh, what a win.

Joe Sudbay:

What a great race. Right? And Gabe Vasquez down in NM-02, who in the days before the election, everyone was like, "Well, that's going to be a Republican seat again." No, he won. He won. He was even up in that New York Times Siena poll when they were telling us-

David Nir:

“Don't believe the New York Times Siena poll.” Right?

Joe Sudbay:

Yes. So yeah, those are some terrific wins. And the thing about both of those, WA-03 and NM-02, they were pickups of Republican-held seats and that was really important.

David Nir:

Important. Daily Kos Elections just put out just a little bit of data this week noting that when all is said and done, Republicans are almost certain to have 222 seats in the House. Democrats 213. There's one seat, California's 13th still hasn't been called yet. Republicans are leading there. If Democrats can somehow come from behind, it would be 221-214, even better for Democrats. But here's the interesting thing, and this is the data I'm referring to. Republicans, in the 118th Congress that will be seated on Jan 3, will hold 18 districts that Joe Biden won, blue seats or blue leaning seats. Democrats by contrast, are only going to hold five Trump districts. So that alone will give Democrats a nice head start heading into 2024. Now, Republicans in North Carolina are going to pass a new gerrymander. They're going to screw us in a whole bunch of seats, maybe as many as four seats.

We'll see what happens in Ohio. The New Mexico Supreme Court still is weighing a case. They might rule against the map there. That would be very tough news for Gabe Vasquez, who you just mentioned, Joe. But the fact of the matter is that Kevin McCarthy in the coming Congress is going to have an absurdly small margin for error, if he's even speaker. And there are now five Republicans, as of Tuesday, who have either said they don't think they want to vote for McCarthy or emphatically said “hell no” on McCarthy. And five is the magic number. Because the absolute most number of votes that Kevin McCarthy can afford to lose to another candidate is four. Because more than four, and he falls below 218. That's assuming if they have the 222 seats. You need a majority of members present to win the speakership. It's not simply enough to beat the second-place candidate.

A plurality doesn't cut it. Now look, who knows if these schmucks like Matt Gaetz can actually hold together, if they can increase their numbers by Jan 3. Maybe these are just idle threats; maybe they're just posturing. If there's one thing that we know that Kevin McCarthy is good at, he is good at groveling. And he will almost certainly have to make all kinds of concessions to keep these people on board. And he was already going to be a really weak speaker, even if he was going to be speaker and now his speakership is just going to be unthinkably feeble.

Joe Sudbay:

I just have to say, first of all, I agree with all of that. And Nancy Pelosi had 222 members, sometimes 221. And think of over the past few weeks since it became clear that this may be the outcome, all we've heard from everybody is some variation of this is going to be a show with Kevin McCarthy and the Republicans in control. We never heard that about Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats. And what drives me crazy about it, David, how many times over the years have we seen the DC Press Corps run headlines, “Dems in Disarray?” If Nancy Pelosi sneezes at a press conference, that's the headline.

David Nir:

Democrats in Disarray.

Joe Sudbay:

Democrats in disarray. And we have Republicans in serious disarray. In the Senate for sure, in their presidential race, but in the House it is going to be a mess. And what's really important politically is you mentioned those 18 districts that are held by Republicans that Biden won. Those 18 are all going to be sucked into the craziness and the drama. And the question is, do... I mean, I don't think there's any such thing as a Republican moderate, but if you are one that's sort of moderate-ish and you're watching this play out, what do you do? What do you do? Do you decide that you think it's more important for you to win so you're going to show some independence, or are you just going to go along with it? I think most will go along with it. Most of them did after January 6th. But what the Republicans have been offering, they have offered nothing in terms of an agenda beyond investigations and impeachments and stunts and photo ops.

That's all they have. And it's really going to be fascinating to watch, because I agree with you. McCarthy is a weak, weak leader. Everybody knows it. Everybody knows it, and they're all going to try and take advantage of him. And let's see what happens in early January when the vote comes. It will be interesting to see if those hardcores stay strong. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. And someone's going to have to cave here, or there's just going to be chaos, and I think it's going to be chaos either way, but what a mess. What a mess. And we can actually say, I actually saw a headline last week on Politico, that used the words Republicans and disarray in the same headline. I actually tweeted it out with sirens, saying I think this is the first time I've ever seen it.

David Nir:

Did an editor... Was there an editing mistake? I mean, the contrast with Democrats could not be stronger. Look at this absolutely seamless, out-of-nowhere transition of leadership on the Democratic side. I mean, I thought Pelosi might call it a day. And as sad as I am to see that happen, the fact that she got Hoyer and Clyburn to leave the stage with her all at the same time, there's just no dissent about this. Hakeem Jeffries is going to be the Democratic leader. When Democrats retake the House, he will be the speaker. And it's just such a stark contrast to the GOP. And to your point about those... Congressional scholar Norm Ornstein says, "Don't use the term moderate." And he's absolutely right. Use the term pragmatist. And I think that fits better because you have hardcore conservatives who are nevertheless political pragmatists, whether that means they want to get something done in Congress, and they're not just nihilists, or they at least have a sense of political self-preservation.

The problem for them... I think that right now, you're right. I don't think they have a majority vote in favor of Looney Tunes ideas like impeaching Joe Biden. However, we saw what happened to all the Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump. Out of the 10 of them, only two are going to be coming back in the next Congress. So if you are a Republican member of Congress who decides, you know what? The general election is more important to me. I'm not going to vote for all these crazy investigations of Hunter Biden's laptop and impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas and all this nonsense. You might draw a primary. You probably will draw a primary. You might lose your primary. So they are just... I mean, a rock and a hard place doesn't even begin to describe it.

Joe Sudbay:

And they did it to themselves, David, with-

David Nir:

Oh yeah.

Joe Sudbay:

... their gerrymandering and getting these ultra ruby-red districts so that they can just go more to the extreme. And it's bad for the country. It's bad for our... It probably could be bad for our economy. It's bad for our reputation. Hopefully it will lead to the self-destruction of this party because they have nothing to offer the American people. And of course, this is all going to play out against the backdrop of their one true leader running for president again. So we're going to have to pop a lot of popcorn over the next few weeks and months.

David Nir:

Tell me about it. Let's get Orville Redenbacher in bulk. So Joe, before we go, there is someone I want to give a shout out to. A little while back, we did a mail bag episode where we answered reader's questions, and we got a really great question from reader Ryan Dack, who asked us how voters go about the process of casting ballots, deciding who to vote for in school board races, which are typically nonpartisan and you don't necessarily know a lot about the candidates. And it was a very good question. Lot of food for thought. Definitely dig up that old episode if you want to see how David Beard and I answered it. But the reason why I'm referencing this now is that Ryan was on the ballot for a community college governing board member post in Orange County, and he won.

In fact, he kicked ass. He won 69% to 31% over his opponent. So congratulations, Ryan. You asked us an excellent question. We hope you have many more for us, but far more important than that, it's sounds like you won an amazing race. We wish you luck on the community college board and hopefully this is just the first of many victories to come for you.

Joe Sudbay:

Wow. Congratulations, Ryan. I love that. I just think these races are so important up and down the ballot and everybody has to make sure... I know our listeners do here at The Downballot, and also I say this on SiriusXM Progress all the time, make sure you vote the whole ballot. So many people just go in and vote top of the ticket. Those ballot measures and candidates further down, they're not less important. They have more of a direct impact on your life in many ways. Make sure you vote the whole ticket. The down ballot is the whole game.

David Nir:

Well, that's exactly right. Joe, it has been awesome, awesome having you join me on today's episode of The Downballot. You can find Joe on Twitter @JoeSudbay and I know that we will be having you back on in the very near future.

Joe Sudbay:

What a complete pleasure to spend time with you, David Nir. I love the opportunity to talk to you. As I always say, whenever I have you on SiriusXM Progress, we're going to geek out and do a deep dive and I love being able to do it on your show as well.

David Nir:

We love geeking out and doing a deep dive here as well. Thanks a lot, Joe.

Joe Sudbay:

Thank you.

David Nir:

That's all from us this week. Thank you to Joe Sudbay for joining us. The Downballot comes out every Thursday everywhere you listen to podcasts. You can reach out to us by emailing thedownballot@dailykos.com. If you haven't already, please subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts and leave us a five star rating and review. Thanks to our producer, Cara Zelaya, and editor, Trever Jones. We'll be back next week with a new episode.

Morning Digest: Republicans just took control of the House because of gerrymandering. Here’s how

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

House: Republicans retook the House on Wednesday after winning California’s 27th Congressional District and, with it, control over at least 218 seats, ending four years of Democratic majorities. While Democrats will still hold the presidency and Senate, the GOP’s House takeover has ended two years of unified Democratic governance in Washington. Many factors made the difference for what’s guaranteed to be a very narrow GOP majority, but among the most consequential for democracy is that Republicans almost certainly owe their majority to gerrymandering.

In a landmark Supreme Court ruling in 2019, every GOP-appointed justice voted over the opposition of every Democratic appointee to prohibit federal courts from curtailing partisan gerrymandering. Chief Justice John Roberts disingenuously argued that judicial intervention wasn’t needed partly because Congress itself could end gerrymandering, at least federally. But following the 2020 elections, every Republican in Congress voted to block a bill supported by every Democrat to ban congressional gerrymandering nationwide, which failed when Democratic Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin refused to also curtail the GOP's filibuster to pass the measure.

Consequently, as shown in this map, Republicans were able to draw roughly four out of every 10 congressional districts after the 2020 census—three times as many as Democrats drew. After Republicans blocked Democrats from ending gerrymandering nationally, Democrats largely refused to disarm unilaterally and gerrymandered where they could, just as the GOP did. Republicans, however, had ma​​​​​​ny more opportunities, in large part because state courts struck down a map passed by New York Democrats and replaced it with a nonpartisan map.

By contrast, the Supreme Court and judges in Florida allowed GOP gerrymanders to remain in place for 2022 in four states even though lower courts found that they discriminated against Black voters as litigation continues. Had Republicans been required to redraw these maps to remedy their discrimination, Black Democrats would have been all but assured of winning four more seats, possibly enough to cost the GOP its majority on their own. And in Ohio, Republicans were able to keep using their map for 2022 even though the state Supreme Court ruled it was an illegal partisan gerrymander, potentially costing Democrats another two seats.

Had Republicans in Congress—or their allies on the courts—not blocked Democratic-backed efforts to end gerrymandering nationally and ensure every state draws fair maps, Democrats would likely be enjoying two more years with full control over the federal government and the ability to pass a number of important policies. But because Republicans at the national level and in state after state chose to preserve their power to gerrymander, that outcome will no longer happen.

For more on the final seat that gave Republicans the majority, see our CA-27 item below.

The Downballot

We're now in the second week of election overtime and there are still plenty of major races yet to be decided—as well as tons more great news for Democrats to exult over on this week's episode of The Downballot. On the uncalled races front, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a pair of House races in California and several legislatures that could flip from red to blue, including the Pennsylvania House. Speaking of legislatures, the Davids also go deep on what the astonishing flips in Michigan will mean for progressives and particularly organized labor.

And there's more! The hosts explain why New York's court-drawn congressional map did indeed undermine Democrats (despite some claims to the contrary) and wrap up with a recap of interesting ballot measures across the country, including an Arizona amendment to create the post of lieutenant governor for the first time; minimum wage hikes in multiple states; and, in several more states, the legalization of weed plus, in Colorado, psychedelic mushrooms.

We're at 992 subscribers on Apple Podcasts, so we'd love it if you'd subscribe to The Downballot there and get us to 1,000! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time. New episodes every Thursday morning.

Election Calls

CA-27: Multiple media outlets called the race in California's 27th District for Republican Rep. Mike Garcia on Wednesday evening, giving the GOP a majority of at least 218 seats in the House. With several races still outstanding, the final size of that majority has yet to be determined, but it will be small—and much smaller than most politicians, operatives, and prognosticators expected heading into election night.

Garcia fended off Democrat Christy Smith in what was the two candidates' third straight matchup. With an estimated 73% of the vote tallied, Garcia led Smith, a former Assemblywoman, by a 54-46 margin. The two first met in a 2020 special election that Garcia won 55-45, then faced off in a much closer rematch that fall that saw Garcia squeak out a 333-vote victory. Despite that tight race, D.C. Democrats seemed to have little faith in Smith for this third bout, spending virtually nothing on her campaign; national Republicans, by contrast, were confident in Garcia, making only relatively small outlays on his behalf.

The congressman, however, will be a top Democratic target in 2024, presumably with a different foe. According to calculations from Daily Kos Elections, his district in the suburbs north of Los Angeles would have voted for Joe Biden by a 55-43 margin, making it one of the bluest seats held by a Republican.

ME-02: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden confirmed his victory over the Republican he unseated in 2018, Bruce Poliquin, when election officials tabulated the results of the instant runoff in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, a rural seat in the northern part of the state that Trump took 52-46.

Golden led 48-45 when it came to first choice preferences while independent Tiffany Bond secured the remaining 7%; the congressman prevailed 53-47 in the second and final round of tabulations. Poliquin was the last New England Republican in the House before Golden beat him four years ago, and his second defeat maintains Team Red’s shutout in the region.

Major outside groups on both sides treated this contest as one of the top House races in the nation, and they deployed their resources accordingly. Altogether the four largest groups involved in House races dropped $19.4 million here: The only seats that attracted more outside spending were California’s 22nd, which is unresolved, and Michigan’s 7th, where Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin won re-election.

Poliquin himself campaigned as an ardent ally of ultra-conservative Paul LePage, the former governor who was waging his own comeback by taking on Democratic Gov. Janet Mills. Poliquin was correct that LePage would carry the 2nd District, but he didn’t do well enough to secure victory for either one of them. LePage, who once called himself “​​Trump before Trump,” instead ran several points behind MAGA’s master by taking the seat only 50-47 according to Daily Kos Elections calculations: Mills more than made up for that by carrying Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree’s 1st 63-36, which powered her to a 55-43 statewide blowout.

LePage’s performance in the 2nd would still have put Poliquin over the top if the former congressman had been able to secure all of LePage’s voters or appeal to enough Mills backers, but that’s very much not what happened. Golden once again touted himself as an independent-minded congressman and emphasized his time in the Marines, an approach he used to win over crossover voters during his last two campaigns. Golden also made sure to run ads where members of the Maine Lodge of the Fraternal Order of Police, a group that supported LePage, praised him as "a different type of Democrat."

Poliquin, for his part, never accepted his defeat from four years ago, and he kicked off his comeback attempt in 2021 by claiming, “Head-to-head, you know, I beat Golden in 2018, and God willing, I will do it again next year.” Poliquin had led Golden 49-47 among first-choice voter preferences on election night as Bond and another contender took the balance, but that wasn't enough under the 2016 voter-approved ranked-choice law. Golden ended up prevailing 50.6-49.4 once votes were assigned to subsequent preferences as minor candidates were eliminated, a result that made Poliquin the first incumbent to lose re-election in the 2nd District since 1916.

The ousted congressman, though, responded by filing a lawsuit arguing that the ranked choice law violated the Constitution. Poliquin's suit was frivolous, and both the district court and an appellate court emphatically rejected his legal arguments since nothing in the Constitutional provisions he cited came close to barring the use of ranked-choice voting, which several states have used for overseas and military voters for years to comply with federal law regarding absentee ballots.

Poliquin ultimately dropped all his legal challenges a full seven weeks after Election Day but continued to pretend he was the rightful victor, falsely claiming that he’d won “the constitutional” vote and that victory was denied by a “black box computer algorithm” for an “illegal” election. Poliquin in 2022 refused to say if he’d accept another such defeat, though Golden’s plurality win made the matter moot.

Poliquin, though, didn’t hate ranked choice voting quite enough to give up any hope that it could give him the win after Election Day. On Sunday the Republican wrote, “Regardless of how this week’s rank choice ballot counting ends up for my race, President Joe Biden and the Democrats continue to control all the levers of power in Washington until noon on January 3 when the new Republican majority in the U.S. House is sworn in.”

PA State House: Pennsylvania Democrats declared victory in a crucial race for the state House on Wednesday after additional ballots were tallied, reversing what had been a 12-vote lead for Republican Todd Stephens and putting Democrat Missy Cerrato ahead by 37 votes in the 151st District. If Cerrato's advantage holds up, she'll give Democrats 102 seats in the 203-member chamber, setting the stage for state Rep. Joanna McClinton to become the first Black woman to serve as House speaker and capping a stunning election night that saw Democrats flip the 12 seats they needed to win their first majority in more than a decade.

Republicans, meanwhile, have moved into a small lead in the 142nd District, another seat in the Philly suburbs. However, even if Republican Joseph Hogan hangs on to defeat Democrat Mark Moffa, the best the GOP can hope for in the next session of the legislature is 101 seats—a minority. But it may yet be some time before we have final resolution for both races, as recounts and legal challenges are likely.

Criminal Justice: Five states in 2022 voted on ballot measures that aimed to remove language from their state constitutions that currently still allows slavery and indentured servitude as punishment for crimes, and four out of the five passed. Much like the U.S. Constitution's 13th Amendment, whose ban on slavery also has an exception for punishment for crime, a number of states enacted similar wording following the Civil War, and proponents hope that removing such exceptions will help eliminate forced labor in prisons.

In particular, voters this month approved amendments removing these exceptions in Alabama, where a more extensive recompiled constitution passed 77-23; Oregon, where Measure 112 prevailed 56-44; Tennessee, where Constitutional Amendment 3 won 80-20; and Vermont, where Proposal 2 succeeded 89-11.

Meanwhile in Louisiana, voters rejected Amendment 7 by 61-39 despite its unanimous passage by the GOP-run legislature. However, that outcome occurred after a Democrat who sponsored the amendment later came out against it, saying that a drafting error in the amendment's language could have unintentionally expanded the exceptions to the ban on slavery and involuntary servitude, so lawmakers may try again with different wording in the future.

Drug Law Reforms: Six states voted this month on whether to approve ballot measures that would either legalize marijuana or decriminalize other drugs, three of which were approved while three others were rejected.

In Maryland, voters approved legalizing marijuana by passing Question 4 by a 66-33 margin after Democratic lawmakers placed it on the ballot, and voters in Missouri did the same by passing voter-initiated Amendment 3 by a 53-47 spread. However, voters rejected marijuana legalization ballot initiatives in Arkansas by defeating Issue 4 by 56-44, North Dakota by voting down Statutory Measure 1 by 55-45, and South Dakota by opposing Initiated Measure 27 by 53-47.

Meanwhile in Colorado, which along with Washington was one of the first two states to legalize recreational marijuana back in 2012, voters this month passed Proposition 122 by 54-46 to decriminalize certain psychedelic plants and fungi such as psilocybin mushrooms and regulate their sale for therapeutic uses. Colorado is now the second state to decriminalize and regulate psilocybin mushrooms after Oregon voters did so in 2020.

Gun Safety: Iowans last week voted 65-35 to pass Amendment 1, which GOP lawmakers voted along party lines to place on the ballot as an amendment that will now add a constitutional right to "keep and bear arms." The amendment additionally subjects any and all laws restricting that right to a standard for judicial review that makes it much harder for such restrictions to survive in court.

In Oregon, voters headed in the completely opposite direction by passing citizen-initiated Measure 114 by a 51-49 margin to adopt one of the strictest gun safety laws in the country: It will require firearm purchasers to obtain a permit, submit to a federal background check, complete a hands-on safety class, and get fingerprinted before they can acquire a gun, and the new statute also bans magazines that can hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition.

OR Ballot: Oregon voters by a 51-49 spread have approved Measure 111, which was placed on the ballot by the Democratic legislature and will amend the state constitution to "ensure that every resident of Oregon has access to cost-effective, clinically appropriate and affordable health care as a fundamental right."

Senate

OH-Sen: NBC's Henry Gomez name-drops venture capitalist Mark Kvamme as one of the Republicans who is "either courting party insiders and donors or being mentioned as prospects." Kvamme, Gomez says, is close to former Gov. John Kasich, who was persona non grata in the Trump-era GOP even before he endorsed Biden in 2020. The article also name-drops Rep. Warren Davidson, a hardliner who considered bids for governor and Senate this year, as a possibility.

One person we thankfully won't have to kick around anymore, though, is former Treasurer Josh Mandel, who lost the 2022 primary to Sen.-elect J.D. Vance. "Josh is not running for Senate in 2024 and has no plans to return to politics," a longtime Mandel aide told Gomez.

NRSC: Montana Sen. Steve Daines was chosen Wednesday to chair the NRSC for the 2024 cycle months after Politico reported that he appeared to be the only candidate for the job.

Senate: Politico published an article early last month where reporter Burgess Everett asked each Democratic senator up in 2024, as well as allied independents Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, whether they'd be seeking re-election. Since then two vulnerable senators, Montana's Jon Tester and West Virginia's Joe Manchin, have reiterated that they haven't made up their minds, while Ohio's Sherrod Brown has announced he's in. The responses from the other incumbents to Everett are below:

AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema deflected questions by saying she was focused on re-electing homestate colleague Mark Kelly. Sinema has spent the last two years infuriating her party, and Rep. Ruben Gallego has been openly musing about launching a primary bid against her.

CA-Sen: Dianne Feinstein, who has faced serious questions about her cognitive health all year, has not discussed her plans, though Everett says that fellow Democrats are "already eyeing the seat as essentially open."

CT-Sen: Chris Murphy declared he has "no plans other than to run for re-election."

DE-Sen: Tom Carper, who considered retiring six years ago, said, "I'm gonna listen to people in Delaware, and I'm going to listen to my wife ... it's a bit early to be deciding."

HI-Sen: A spokesperson for Mazie Hirono said she's "running for re-election."

MA-Sen: A spokesperson for Elizabeth Warren also confirmed she would seek a third term.

MD-Sen: Ben Cardin said, "It's too early to make those types of decisions."

ME-Sen: Angus King divulged, "I'm thinking about it. And I'll probably make a decision early next year." He continued, "I feel great. I feel like I'm accomplishing something. So, no decision."

MI-Sen: Debbie Stabenow said she plans to run again.

MN-Sen: Amy Klobuchar declared it was "very clear" she's in.

NJ-Sen: Robert Menendez said it was a "long time from here to 2024, but I have every intention of running again." Weeks later, Semafor reported that the senator is again under federal investigation.

NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich revealed he was "putting all the pieces together" to run.

NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen unequivocally announced, "I'm definitely running."

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand divulged she was "really excited" to seek another term.

PA-Sen: Bob Casey said that running was "my goal," adding, "We try not to talk about it 'til it starts."

RI-Sen: Sheldon Whitehouse was in no hurry to reveal anything, saying instead, "I actually like to do those announcements as announcements. And this is not the place for that announcement." He added to Everett, "You're not my vector for an announcement."

VA-Sen: Tim Kaine remarked that, while he wouldn't make a decision until late 2022 or early 2023, he was "vigorously fundraising, doing everything that a candidate does."

VT-Sen: Bernie Sanders said that it was "too early to talk about" if he'd be seeking re-election.

WA-Sen: Maria Cantwell divulged she plans to run again but there's "plenty of time" before 2024.

WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin said, "I think I'm gonna run for re-election."

Governors

WV-Gov, WV-Sen: West Virginia Metro News relays that Republican Secretary of State Mac Warner "has his eye on" a bid against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in 2024, though it also notes that he could instead run to succeed termed-out Gov. Jim Justice or seek re-election.

The Senate contest got started Tuesday when GOP Rep. Alex Mooney launched a bid to take on Manchin, who has not yet announced if he'll run again, but the Republican primary for governor has been underway for almost a year longer. Back in December of 2021 auto dealer Chris Miller, who is the son of Rep. Carol Miller, declared he was in and would partially self-fund, and Metro News wrote last month that he had about $970,000 on-hand.

The younger Miller, columnist Steven Allen Adams wrote last year, "has mostly been front and center in his family's car dealership commercials, where Miller is known for wacky and humorous antics, including spoofing former president Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders." However, Adams added that Miller had plenty of connections of his own within GOP politics.

One person who probably won't want to see Miller in the governor's office, though, is Justice. Last month, the GOP governor and Rep. Carol Miller found themselves on opposite sides in the fight over Amendment Two, which among other things would have let the legislature exempt vehicles from personal property taxes. Justice cited the fact that the congresswoman's family owns seven auto dealerships in his quest to derail the measure, declaring, "Just ask yourself—the automobile dealers, you know, does Congresswoman Miller have a conflict? Are they going to get real, live money? They sure are." Voters went on to decisively reject Amendment 2.

Justice, for his part, has not ruled out a Senate bid, which would bring him into conflict with Mooney. The governor also had some choice words about his would-be primary rival during the Amendment 2 fight, saying, "From the standpoint of Congressman Mooney, I honestly don't know and I'm not throwing any rocks at Congressman Mooney, but I've been here for six years, but I've seen Congressman Mooney one time, one time in six years."

Justice went on to trash Mooney, a former Maryland state senator who only moved to the state in 2013 ahead of his first congressional bid, by asking, "Really and truly, does Congressman Mooney even know West Virginia exists?"

Legislatures

VA State Senate: The first big special election of the new election cycle is coming up fast, as Virginia officials just set Jan. 10 as the date for the race to replace Republican state Sen. Jen Kiggans, who will soon enter Congress after unseating Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria 52-48 in the redrawn 2nd District. The battle will have major implications for Democrats, who hold the Senate by a narrow 21-19 margin but could pad their majority with a win.

Three candidates have already announced plans to run. Virginia Beach Councilman Aaron Rouse, a former Virginia Tech football star who briefly played in the NFL, kicked off a bid on Monday with an endorsement from Luria. Rouse won an at-large seat on the city council in 2018, so he already represents about two-fifths of the district he's now running for. (He also briefly challenged Republican Mayor Bobby Dyer in 2020 but dropped out, citing the coronavirus pandemic.)

Former state Rep. Cheryl Turpin, who lost to Kiggans by a narrow 50.4 to 49.5 margin in 2019, likewise has said she'll run, which would set up a matchup with Rouse. While plans haven't yet been announced, the two will likely face off in a so-called firehouse primary, a small-scale nominating contest run by the Democratic Party (rather than the state). The lone Republican to enter so far is businessman Kevin Adams, a Navy veteran who doesn't appear to have run for office before.

Because the election is being held to complete the final year of Kiggans' term, it will take place in the old version of the 7th State Senate District in Virginia Beach, an area in the state's southeastern corner with a heavy Navy presence. Kiggans, a nurse practitioner and former Navy helicopter pilot, won her only term in the Senate in that 2019 race against Turpin for an open Republican seat. The tight result that year was very similar to the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, which saw Hillary Clinton narrowly edge out Donald Trump 46.8 to 46.5 in the district.

But while Joe Biden cruised in 2020, winning the 7th 54-44, Democratic performance dipped badly the following year, when Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe 52-48 in the governor's race. Democrats are naturally hoping to return to Biden's form, but this contest will very likely be another tossup.

The race to succeed Kiggans for a full term, however, should be a more one-sided affair. Redistricting not only gave the district a new number, the 22nd, but it made it considerably more Democratic, as Biden would have won 59-39. All three candidates in the special election had already announced they'd seek the 22nd when it first goes before voters in November of next year.

Mayors

Indianapolis, IN Mayor: Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett announced Tuesday that he'll seek a third term, which he says would be his last, next year. Hogsett kicked off his campaign days after state Rep. Robin Shackleford launched a primary bid against him. Should Hogsett win re-election, he'd be the first mayor to serve more than two terms since Republican William Hudnut completed his fourth and final term in 1991. The last person to try to secure a third term was Democratic Mayor Bart Peterson, who lost to Republican Greg Ballard in a 2007 upset.

Indianapolis spent decades as a GOP bastion after then-Mayor Richard Lugar consolidated it with the rest of Marion County in 1970, but it remains to be seen if Republicans will field a serious candidate to lead what's become reliably blue turf especially in recent years. Hogsett won an uncompetitive contest to succeed Ballard in 2015, and his landslide win four years later helped propel Democrats to a supermajority on the City-County Council. Biden took Marion County 63-34 in 2020, and it supported Democratic Senate candidate Thomas McDermott by a similar margin last week as he was badly losing statewide to GOP incumbent Todd Young.

Philadelphia, PA Mayor: The May Democratic primary swelled once again on Wednesday when businessman Jeff Brown, who owns 12 locations of the ShopRite grocery store chain, announced that he'd be competing to succeed termed-out Mayor Jim Kenney.

Brown is the first notable candidate who has never held elected office, and he says he plans to self-fund some of his bid. The Philadelphia Inquirer also notes that he "has long had connections in the city's Democratic political class," while a PAC he's been involved in called Philly Progress PAC took in $934,000 last year.

Brown, who started a nonprofit to provide food access to underserved neighborhoods, clashed with Kenney in 2016 when the mayor successfully pushed for a sweetened-beverage tax. However, Brown now says that he won't prioritize trying to repeal the tax, which the paper says has brought in $385 million in revenue.

Prosecutors

Philadelphia, PA District Attorney: The Republican-dominated state House voted Wednesday to impeach Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, who is one of the most prominent criminal justice reformers in the country, a move his fellow Democrats denounced as a power grab.  The state Senate will hold a trial at an unannounced later date, and it would take two-thirds of the upper chamber’s members to remove Krasner.

Republicans and an allied independent, John Yudichak, together hold 29 of the 50 seats, so they’d need to win over at least five Democrats to get the requisite 34 votes to oust the district attorney. No House Democrats, though, supported impeachment, while Republican state Rep. Michael Puskaric gave it the thumbs down. It’s possible the trial could take place after new members are sworn in for January but, because Democrats netted a seat last week, that would only make the math harder for Krasner’s detractors.

Republicans argued that, while the legislature hasn’t impeached anyone in nearly three decades, it was necessary to remove Krasner. “Lives have been lost, property has been destroyed and families have been crushed,” said the resolution, which argued that the district attorney had mismanaged his office and pushed policies that led to more unrest. Krasner, who was re-elected last year, responded that the GOP hasn’t provided “a shred of evidence” that he was at fault for a national rise in crime and that “history will harshly judge this anti-democratic authoritarian effort to erase Philly’s votes.”

Law professor Bruce Ledewitz also told the Philadelphia Inquirer, “There is very little likelihood here that there’s a legally sufficient basis for impeachment and removal.” Ledewitz noted that, even if Krasner is convicted by the state Senate, the courts have the power to intervene if they don’t feel his removal meets the standards required for impeachment.

Other Races

Suffolk County, NY Executive: Outgoing Rep. Lee Zeldin has been talked about as a possible RNC or state GOP chair following his 53-47 loss to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, and Politico also floats the idea that he could instead run next year to succeed termed-out Democrat Steve Bellone as Suffolk County executive. Zeldin carried this populous Long Island community 59-41 two years after Trump took it by all of 232 votes.

Another local Republican, county Comptroller John Kennedy, didn't rule out the idea of a second campaign for the top job last week just before he was re-elected 60-40. Kennedy challenged Bellone in 2019 but struggled with fundraising and lost 56-43.

On the Democratic side, venture capitalist Dave Calone kicked off his campaign all the way back in July by saying he'd already taken in $1 million, and he has no serious intra-party opposition so far. Calone previously competed in the 2016 primary to take on Zeldin in the 1st District but lost to Anna Throne-Holst in a 51-49 squeaker; Zeldin went on to easily turn back Throne-Holst 58-42.

Morning Digest: Democrats keep Senate after incumbents prevail in Arizona and Nevada

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

NV-Sen, AZ-Sen: Democrats learned that they’d kept control of the Senate Saturday evening when media organizations called Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory over Republican Adam Laxalt, a development that came one day after they made the same projection in Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly’s battle against Republican Blake Masters. The Senate battle isn’t over, though, as both parties are already spending in the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, a contest that will have major consequences even though the majority isn’t at stake.

Cortez Masto trailed on election night but gradually cut her deficit over the following days as ballots submitted by mail or through drop boxes were tabulated, and outlets called her race seconds after she took the lead on Saturday. Cortez Masto, whose win six years ago made her the nation’s first Latina senator, leads Laxalt 48.8-48.1 with 98% of the Associated Press’ estimated vote in, a tight victory that came after a campaign that attracted massive amounts of money from both sides.

Over in neighboring Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 52-46 with 93% of the estimated vote in. Kelly, like Cortez Masto, spent the 2022 cycle as one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the nation, but Masters proved to be one of the weakest GOP Senate nominees in a cycle full of them. In addition to being a truly bad fundraiser, Masters, as the University of Virginia’s J. Miles Coleman put it last month, “comes across as a 4chan guy.” Among many other things, Masters this year called Ted Kaczynski a "subversive thinker that's underrated" before belatedly acknowledging that it's "probably not great to be talking about the Unabomber while campaigning."

Wins by Cortez Masto and Kelly give Senate Democrats control of 50 seats, while Republicans are guaranteed to hold 49. However, we won’t know if Alaska will continue to be represented by Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who sometimes votes with the Biden administration, or hardliner Kelly Tshibaka until instant-runoff tabulations take place on Nov. 23: Tshibaka holds a narrow 44-43 edge with 80% of the estimated vote in, with Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley clocking in at 10% and 3%, respectively.

The final seat is in Georgia, where Warnock outpaced Walker 49.4-48.5 on Tuesday. Democrats are hoping that, now that control of the Senate isn’t on the line, Republicans will be less motivated to turn out for a scandal-plagued nominee who badly trailed the rest of the GOP ticket. The stakes remain high, though: A Warnock victory would leave Senate Democrats far less reliant on West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Kelly’s unreliable colleague, Kyrsten Sinema, and give Team Blue some breathing room ahead of a tough 2024 map.

georgia runoff

GA-Sen: The first Democratic attack ads of the runoff have launched, hitting Herschel Walker for his many personal failings, including paying a girlfriend to have an abortion. That story earned enormous media attention the instant the Daily Beast broke it last month and led to upheaval inside Walker's campaign, but it wasn't the subject of many ads prior to the first round of voting.

This time around, it's just one part of a new broadside from American Bridge, which Politico says is running a "seven-figure" paid media campaign "targeted to voters outside of the Atlanta media market." The spot features several different women who all paint Walker as a liar and a danger:

"Herschel Walker lies. He lies about his businesses. He lies about the way he's treated his family. His son says he's afraid of him and doesn't respect him. He's dangerous. Herschel Walker allegedly held a gun to his girlfriend's head. He lies about his beliefs about abortion. He paid for an abortion for his girlfriend and then he lied about it. Does he think the people of Georgia are stupid? Too many red flags. There's too much at stake. He does not deserve to represent us."

Republicans waded back into the fray a day earlier, with ads from the NRSC trying to tie Raphael Warnock to Joe Biden.

Election Calls

Quite a few contests still remain uncalled, but we’re tracking all of them on our continually updated cheat-sheet; we’ll cover each of them in the Digest once they’re resolved.

NV-Gov: Republican Joe Lombardo has unseated Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak, which makes this the one governor’s office the GOP flipped this year. Lombardo leads 49-47 with 98% of the estimated vote in, a win that gives Republicans back a post they held from the 1998 elections until Sisolak’s 2018 victory against Adam Laxalt.

AZ-04: Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton has fended off Republican Kelly Cooper, a far right extremist who won the nomination in August despite heavy spending from GOP outside groups that correctly saw him as a disastrous candidate. Stanton leads 57-43 with 94% of the estimated vote in; Biden won this constituency in the Phoenix area 54-44 two years ago.  

CA-15: Assemblyman Kevin Mullin has defeated his fellow Democrat, San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa, in the contest to succeed retiring Rep. Jackie Speier. Mullin leads 56-44 with 58% of the estimated vote in for a dark blue Bay Area constituency that includes most of San Mateo County and a portion of San Francisco. The winner had the backing of both Speier and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who sought reelection one seat to the north, and he also benefited from spending by the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC.    

CA-26: Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley has turned back Republican Matt Jacobs in a race that attracted some late spending from her allies at EMILY’s List. The incumbent leads 54-46 with 60% of the estimated vote in; Biden took this seat, which is based in Ventura County north of Los Angeles, 59-39.

MD-06: Democratic Rep. David Trone took the lead Friday as more ballots were counted, and Republican Neil Parrott conceded shortly before media outlets called the race. Trone leads 52-48 with 98% of the estimated vote in for a seat in Western Maryland and the northwestern D.C. exurbs that Biden took 54-44.

 OR-05: Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer has flipped this seat for her party by defeating Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in a seat that became open in May after McLeod-Skinner denied renomination to Blue Dog Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader. Chavez-DeRemer leads 51-49 with 94% of the estimated vote in for a 53-44 Biden seat located in the southern Portland suburbs and central Oregon. Chavez-DeRemer will be the first Latina to represent Oregon in Congress, a distinction she’d share with Andrea Salinas should the Democrat keep her lead in the 6th.

WA-03: Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez scored one of the biggest upsets of the cycle by beating Republican Joe Kent, an election denier who had defeated GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the August top-two primary, in a southwestern Washington seat that Trump took 51-47. Gluesenkamp Perez, who will be the second Latino to represent Washington in Congress after Herrera Beutler, leads 51-49 with 95% of the estimated vote in.

Herrera Beutler flipped a previous version of this seat during the 2010 GOP wave, and she fended off a serious Democratic offensive in 2020. The congresswoman, though, put herself in a different kind of political danger months later when she responded to the Jan. 6 attack by voting to impeach Trump. Trump himself went on to back Kent, who defended Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and called anyone arrested for Jan. 6 “political prisoners.” Kent also gave an interview to a Nazi sympathizer, though he insisted he thought his questioner was a local journalist after CNN broke this news in October.

Kent responded to his August win over Herrera Beutler by dubbing the district “deep red MAGA country,” and he seemed intent to do everything he could to test that out. The Seattle Times writes, “He called for all weapons available to the military, including machine guns, to be available to the public. He supported a national abortion ban, with no exceptions, and called for Dr. Anthony Fauci to be charged with murder.”  

Gluesenkamp Perez, who had lost a 2016 campaign for the Skamania County Board of Commissioners, in turn pitched herself as a moderate and ran ads where local Republicans condemned Kent as a dangerous extremist who would “defund the FBI” and looks up to Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene; Herrera Beutler, for her part, refused to say who she was backing. House Majority PAC also launched an ad buy against Kent in the final days of the race as major GOP groups remained on the sidelines, a gamble that may have made all the difference.

P.S. Gluesenkamp Perez’s victory puts House Democrats on track to represent every district that touches the Pacific Ocean, a feat they haven’t accomplished since before Washington became a state in 1889. Two Democratic incumbents on the California coast, 47th District Rep. Katie Porter and 49th District Rep. Mike Levin, have held the lead since election night, though their races haven’t been called yet.

Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola won’t know her fate until the state conducts instant-runoff tabulations on Nov. 23, but she also looks well positioned: Peltola is taking 47% of the vote with an estimated 80% in, so she’d only need to win a small number of second-choice votes to pull ahead.

NV Ballot: Question 3, which would establish the first top-five primary system in the nation, has passed 53-47, but it needs to win at the ballot box again in November of 2024 in order to go into effect two years later. That’s because Nevada requires voter-initiated constitutional initiatives to be approved in two successive general elections; amendments placed on the ballot by the legislature, by contrast, only need to be passed by voters once.

AZ-SoS, NV-SoS: Democrats Adrian Fontes and Cisco Aguilar have won their secretary of state races by beating a pair of QAnon allies who each denied that Donald Trump lost their respective swing states.

Fontes leads Mark Finchem 53-47 in Arizona with 93% of the estimated vote in, while Nevada’s Aguilar is outpacing Jim Marchant 49-47 with 98% of the estimated tally reporting. Fontes will succeed Katie Hobbs, a fellow Democrat who is running for governor, while Aguilar will replace termed-out Republican incumbent Barbara Cegavske.

Marchant, who among many other things claimed that anyone who won an election in Nevada since 2006 was “installed by the deep-state cabal,” assembled an “America First” slate of conspiracy theorist candidates running to control their state’s elections. Its roster included Finchem, who led the failed effort to overturn Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona, as well as Michigan's Kristina Karamo and New Mexico's Audrey Trujillo. Marchant, Karamo, and Finchem all participated in the same QAnon organized conference last year, with Finchem later holding a fundraiser in September featuring several QAnon notables.

All four members of this quartet, as well as Minnesota’s Kim Crockett, went down after an election cycle where the Democratic secretary of state candidates and their allies outspent Republicans by a 57 to 1 margin from July through late October. It wasn’t a complete shutout for the conspiracy theorists, though, as one member of Marchant’s slate, Diego Morales, prevailed in heavily Republican Indiana.

NV Treasurer: The Nevada Independent on Friday called this contest for Democratic incumbent Zach Conine over Republican Michele Fiore, an extremist who was too much even for some prominent members of her own party. With 98% of the estimated vote in, Conine leads 48-46.

State Legislatures: While Kansas Republicans failed to unseat Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, they preserved the two-thirds supermajority in the state House they need to override her vetoes; the GOP has long enjoyed this edge in the state Senate, which is only up in presidential years. Democrats appear to have netted one seat, but Republicans maintains a 85-40 edge.

Over in Vermont, though, Democrats and the left-wing Progressive Party together won 109 of the 150 state House seats, which once again gives them the ability to override GOP Gov. Phil Scott's vetoes, which they narrowly lost in 2020. WCAX says that Democrats, who on their own will have 104 representatives, will have more seats than ever even though there were 246 members until 1964. The two parties also appear to have finished the election with 23 of the 30 state Senate seats, which is the number they entered Tuesday with.

King County, WA Prosecutor: Leesa Manion will become both the first woman and person of color to serve as King County prosecutor now that her opponent, Federal Way Mayor Jim Ferrell, has conceded. Manion leads 57-43 with about 658,000 votes counted. 

Manion works as chief of staff to retiring incumbent Dan Satterberg, a former Republican who joined the Democratic Party in 2018, and Bolts wrote before the election that she "cast herself as a cautious reformer." Ferrell, who was backed by several ​​police associations and police unions, ran to her right, though, and argued he was more tough on crime.

Governors

IN-Gov: Democrat Jennifer McCormick, a former Republican who was Indiana's last elected schools chief, says she's created an exploratory committee ahead of a possible bid to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb in 2024.

McCormick was elected state superintendent as a Republican in 2016 by unseating Democrat Glenda Ritz, who was the last Democrat to win a state-level office, but she immediately began feuding with the rest of her party over her desire to increase scrutiny over charter schools. Things only got worse as McCormick's tenure continued, and she decided in 2018 not to seek re-election two years down the line. (Republicans initially passed a law to make her post an appointed office starting in 2024, but they moved up the timeline after her retirement announcement.)

McCormick burned what few bridges remained with GOP leaders in 2020 when she endorsed several Democratic contenders, including Holcomb foe Woody Myers. Myers even announced that he'd keep her on as superintendent, something McCormick said she'd accept because of her "outrage" over the state's "woefully underfunded" education system, but Holcomb's landslide win made the point moot. McCormick went on to join the Democratic Party the next year.

LA-Gov: The state GOP's executive committee provided a very early endorsement to Attorney General Jeff Landry on Nov. 6, but while his allies hoped this stamp of approval would help the party avoid the intra-party strife that damaged it in 2019, it doesn't appear to have worked as intended.

Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser, a likely Landry opponent in next October's all-party primary to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, tweeted, "This endorsement process looks more like communist China than the Louisiana we know and love." State Sen. Sharon Hewitt, who recently confirmed her own interest in running, piled on, "the citizens of Louisiana do not need backroom deals and political insiders telling them who should be our next governor."

Conservative megadonor Eddie Rispone, who lost the 2019 campaign to Edwards after a costly battle against then-Rep. Ralph Abraham, successfully pushed for party leaders to support Landry in order to avoid a repeat of what happened to him. Abraham, who retired the next year, is also for Landry.

Several members of the Republican State Central Committee, though, took the smaller executive committee to task for ramming through the endorsement without a vote of the full body, and one even publicly declared, "For a party that's been harping for two years about election integrity and honoring the will of all legitimate voters, tonight's action by the state GOP executive committee stinks like yesterday's diapers." State GOP chair Louis Gurvich responded Thursday that, while he'd wanted this news to be announced after the midterms, "the media reported the endorsement as the result of a leak."

Landry is the only prominent Republican who has announced a campaign, but plenty of others are considering. Sen. John Kennedy didn't dismiss the idea earlier this year, and he also wouldn't shoot the prospect down Tuesday right after winning a new six-year term. He instead merely responded to questions about the gubernatorial race by saying, "I am so happy to be re-elected to the Senate and tonight that is the only thing I have on my mind."

Kennedy's colleague, Bill Cassidy, also said in March he'd decide by the end of this year, and LaPolitics' Jeremy Alford relays that Cassidy "is said to be leaning toward a run." Another GOP member of Congress, Rep. Garret Graves, also promised a decision after the midterms, while state Treasurer John Schroder is considering as well. Plenty of other Republicans may also take a look at running to succeed Edwards in this conservative state.

Mayors

Indianapolis, IN Mayor: State Rep. Robin Shackleford announced Thursday that she would challenge Mayor Joe Hogsett in next year's Democratic primary, and her election would make her both the first woman and African American to lead Indianapolis. We're still waiting to learn, though, whether Hogsett will be seeking a third term.

The incumbent said Wednesday, "I intend to be making decisions and announcements probably by the end of the month … It's probably 50/50 proposition right now." The Indianapolis Star's James Briggs, however, writes that Hogsett's campaign will hold an event Tuesday that he believes will be the mayor's re-election launch. Hogsett began 2022 with $2.4 million on hand, while Shackleford will largely be starting from scratch.

Shackleford, who has been an intra-party critic of the local Democratic establishment, herself argued that, while she supports Hogsett's efforts to improve downtown Indianapolis, he has ignored other neighborhoods badly in need. Briggs also writes that the mayor "was pushed into outlining a Black agenda after having argued that his policies would benefit people of all races" during his 2019 race. He adds, "The events of Hogsett's second term, including racial justice protests that devolved into riots and persistent concerns over police misconduct, likely will put a brighter spotlight on race next year."

It remains to be seen if Republicans will try to make a serious effort to flip the mayor's office in what's become a heavily Democratic community, but IndyPolitics.org publisher Abdul-Hakim Shabazz says he's thinking about running for Team Red.  

Philadelphia, PA Mayor: City Councilmember Helen Gym has been talked about for years as a potential candidate to succeed termed-out Mayor Jim Kenney next year, and she hinted at her interest by telling the Philadelphia Inquirer that "the right woman" would win the May Democratic primary. Gym, who is one of the more high profile progressives in Pennsylvania politics, became the first Asian American elected to the City Council when she won a citywide seat in 2015.

Former state Sen. Vince Fumo also name-dropped state Rep. Amen Brown as a possible contender, but Brown himself doesn't appear to have shown any public interest yet. Former City Councilmember Allan Domb, whom the paper calls "one of Philadelphia's most notable real estate barons," for his part resigned from office in August to focus on a possible bid, but he has yet to jump in.

Domb quit the City Council because Philadelphia requires local elected officials to step down in order to run for mayor, and four Democrats have done just that so far: former City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart and former City Council members Cherelle Parker, Derek Green, and Maria Quiñones-Sánchez. Gym, Rhynhart, Parker, and Quiñones-Sánchez would each be the first woman to lead the city. It only takes a simple plurality to win the Democratic nod.

General elections are almost always afterthoughts in this dark blue city, but a few non-Democrats are making noises about getting in. The Inquirer says that David Oh, who is the only Republican member of the City Council, is mulling the idea.

Former Lt. Gov. Mike Stack also told the paper that he could campaign as an independent, modestly saying, "If Mike Stack's in it, I'd bet on Mike Stack." Stack is a former Democratic office holder who developed a truly awful relationship with his boss, Gov. Tom Wolf, after they were elected in 2014 after winning separate primaries: Wolf even pulled the lieutenant governor's security detail in 2017 over allegations that Stack and his wife verbally abused his protectors and other state employees.

Wolf, though, didn't need to deal with him for too much longer. Four candidates, including John Fetterman, challenged Stack for renomination in 2018, and the result did not go well for the incumbent: Fetterman took first with 37%, while Stack lagged in fourth with just 17%. The Inquirer wrote in 2020 that Stack had "moved to California to try his hand at stand-up comedy and screenwriting," and you can probably guess how well that went.

The Downballot: Holy crap, what an amazing night! (transcript)

Holy crap, what an amazing night! Where do we even begin this week's episode of The Downballot? Well, we know exactly where: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday's extraordinary results, starting with a clear-eyed examination of the issue that animated Democrats as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. They also discuss candidate quality (still really important!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and "soft" Biden disapprovers (lots of them voted for Democrats).

The Davids then catalog the uncalled races for Senate and game out what might happen in the House; review the clean sweep for the good guys in five states that had abortion-related measures on the ballot; and finish off with some delicious, gourmet schadenfreude. You won't want to miss out!

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

David Beard:

Hello and welcome. I'm David Beard, contributing editor for Daily Kos Elections.

David Nir:

And I'm David Nir, political director of Daily Kos. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. And man, oh man, did we have some of those this week. David Beard, where do we even start?

David Beard:

I just feel like the entire life of this podcast has been us warning people. "Oh, it's a midterm, Democratic president, probably going to be a bad year, historically, yada, yada." And now here we are. And it was actually pretty good.

David Nir:

I mean, that's honestly awesome. I'd much, much, much rather it be that way, than it be the reverse of that. I think just about every other Democrat went into Tuesday night with extremely low expectations. I had tried to steel myself for the worst, and it was just one upside surprise after another. And I have been following elections for 20 years. I can't recall feeling that way on election night before.

David Beard:

Yeah, all you had to do was get past Florida, let the Republican wave of Florida wash over you, get past it. As we've learned, Florida will always break your heart. And then, the rest of the country was just victory after victory. It was incredible.

David Nir:

Yeah. We have gotten so used to disappointment that we almost forget what winning looks like. So let's talk about those wins and why we won.

And there's just no doubt in my mind that we have to focus on the one issue that we focused on more than any other on this podcast, as an organization at Daily Kos Elections this entire year, but especially since the end of June, and that is abortion. There is just no doubt about it. Despite the pundits in the fall who tried to tell us that this was not the right issue for Democrats to be pursuing, that Democrats were making a huge mistake in not focusing on the economy or other issues. Abortion was a massive factor in this incredible upset of a night.

David Beard:

And I think all those people, who said that Dobbs would just sort of fade away, and that after three months it was going to no longer be at the front of people's minds, were just crazy. Look at the history of the fight for abortion rights that has been going on for decades or longer, in some places across the world.

And the idea that this massive, massive change was going to cause sort of a temporary spike for a couple of months in Democrats' polling and then just fade away is, in retrospect, just a crazy, crazy idea. That is not how real regular people view politics. They don't view it as this narrative that so many people in [Washington,] D.C., in the sort of punditocracy, want to view it as like, "Oh, Dobbs happened."

Then there was a whole story about it, August special elections narrative, and then other things happened. So we have to move on in the narrative to other issues. But for millions and millions of people, this is a huge core issue that they're not going to forget about and they're going to vote on.

David Nir:

Yeah, this punditocracy was treating abortion rights like gas prices. Gas prices go up, voters get angry, gas prices go down, they start to think about other things. Well, you know what didn't happen since Dobbs? It’s that abortion rights weren't suddenly restored across the country. Nothing made that issue go away. And, if anything, everything that went on kept highlighting it. For instance, let's not forget about Lindsay Graham and his national abortion ban.

Republicans did a really good job of helping Democrats remind voters what the stakes were. Let's not forget the Kansas vote, over the summer, on the abortion amendment, which we'll circle back to, because I think that played a big role on Tuesday night as well.

So yeah, you're exactly right. This notion that it was going to be a flash in the pan, temporary blip... really not how people work.

David Beard:

And I think the other issue, obviously, that Democrats ran extensively on, and a lot of people dismissed as being unimportant, as not being something people would vote on, is democracy protection. And the core protections of the United States, as a democratic country, where people vote and the election results are respected. And a lot of people who are too smart for their own good went around and thought, "Oh, regular people aren't going to care about that. Regular people are just going to vote because of inflation or because their gas prices went up."

And what it turned out is that a lot of people do care about democracy. A lot of people do care about fairness and election results, and those being treated as important as they really are. And they voted on that. And we see election deniers losing race after race. We saw Democrats, who were going to protect elections rights, winning Governor's races, winning Secretary of State's races. And I really believe that issue did matter and did break through.

David Nir:

Yeah, it seemed as though Republicans believed there was no price to be paid for being an extremist, when it comes to authoritarianism, and rejecting democracy, and rejecting the rule of law. And frankly, a lot of reporters went along with this. The traditional way that the media works, of presenting both sides, and refusing to take a side, or calling out lies on one side and admitting that the other side is actually true and correct and right, that I think gave Republicans a lot of permission to think that there would be no price to pay. Because reporters didn't care. But reporters are not voters, and the voters really, really did care. And there are a lot of ways we can look at this. You mentioned all of the races where the big name GOP election deniers lost.

But one other interesting thing that I've been noticing, and will definitely be digging into more in the weeks ahead, is that in a number of these states, the races for secretary of state, the Democrats won by bigger margins in those races than in a lot of the other statewide races. And that blows my mind because I am a massive election nerd. I really care about this stuff. I have been talking about the importance of these kinds of races, especially Secretary of State races, for a really, really long time. And most people, they're not going to pay that much attention to what's going on in specific downballot statewide races.

But we have some pretty clear evidence this time that they really did, that more people were voting for Democrats running for secretary of state than for other offices. And there's only one possible explanation for that. And the answer is that, wow, they actually really, really care about democracy and fairness and elections, and the rule of law.

David Beard:

We spend, obviously, a ton of time thinking about elections, working on elections, as I'm sure a lot of our listeners spend a lot of time thinking about elections, that's why they listen to us. And the average person doesn't. The average voter doesn't. They spend most of their time on their job, on their families, on a lot of other interests, and they spend a very little amount of time thinking about who they're going to vote for.

And I think it can be easy to dismiss the idea that like, "Oh, then they just get a lot of TV ads, or mailers, or whatever, and that's what influences their vote." But I think particularly reporters and pundits can be dismissive of voters. Voters take elections seriously, most voters do, and they want to vote for the right candidate. And even people who strongly disagree with us, people who vote for Republicans regularly, some of them could clearly see that what you need is a Secretary of State, or an Attorney General, who respects the rule of law, who will not try to pretend that somebody who lost an election actually won it. And they were willing to go and vote for the Democrat who was willing to do that, even as they voted for a Republican for Senate, for Governor, down the ballot in other places.

David Nir:

In terms of voters taking elections seriously, I think that brings us to the next topic that we want to talk about, which is that candidate quality still matters. And this is another issue we hit over and over again this year.

But Republicans nominated just an extraordinary array of truly terrible candidates, some of whom were genuinely terrible human beings. And this had an impact. This had an impact. The GOP paid a price.

Now, maybe Ron DeSantis can skate because Florida's become such a weird, odd duck. But there are countless races that we can point to that Republicans lost on Tuesday night, or we found out on Wednesday that they lost, or going to find out in the coming days, simply because they nominated truly terrible people and they deserve everything that they're getting as a result of this.

And the problem is in no way symmetrical. In fact, it's really diametrically opposite. It's almost impossible to think of a Democrat, anywhere this year, who ran in any competitive race, who fumbled away a race because they sucked as a candidate or they were a bad person.

And this is a deep problem for the GOP and I have no idea how they can overcome it. And you know what? If they want to keep nominating terrible people and giving Democrats a huge and important advantage in close races, well, maybe that's something we just need to accept.

David Beard:

And it's really bigger than that because it's an incentive problem. And that's why it's so hard for the Republicans to fix. Because as long as it's Donald Trump's party, the type of people who Donald Trump are going to like and endorse, and probably win primaries. And the type of people who are going to want to run in Donald Trump's Republican Party, are charlatans, are people with bad histories, people who are extremists, who are election deniers. All of that stuff attracts people to Donald Trump's GOP. And as long as it's Donald Trump's GOP, those are the candidates you're going to get.

You can look at the five Republican candidates in the key Senate races this year, which is Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, Donald Bolduc in New Hampshire, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, and Blake Masters in Arizona. And that is not a murderer's row. It is some of the worst Senate candidates, probably, that any major party has nominated in recent history, particularly Blake Masters, Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz. Like just terrible candidates with terrible favorables, lots of scandals.

And as a result, Oz lost. Walker is probably going to a runoff, and is slightly behind heading into the runoff. Masters is, I think, probably going to lose in Arizona. And you can chalk that up, in at least large part, to the fact that they're terrible candidates with terrible favorables.

David Nir:

And let's not forget New Hampshire. I mean, a blowout win in New Hampshire, especially after Maggie Hassan won her last race by 1,000 votes, that doesn't happen without, in part, Bolduc being so absolutely terrible.

David Beard:

Absolutely. And the other thing that we saw last night is that Democratic primary meddling mostly worked out. Tell us about that.

David Nir:

Yeah, it 100% worked out, in fact. That's the other part of this here, there was so much handwringing during the primary season about races where Democrats looked at the GOP primary field and said, you know what? We're going to have a better chance at winning in the general election if this total schmuck beats out the somewhat less bad guy. Democrats very wisely said, we're going to get involved here, and we are simply going to help the ultra-MAGA brigades do what they're already wanting to do, and that is nominate the worst of the worst, and if we do that then we're going to have a better chance at winning. And that's really important because we need the party that believes in democracy, i.e. the Democrats, to win elections. This isn't just about raw power or screwing with the GOP for the sake of it, this is about preserving democracy.

And so in all of these races where Democrats succeeded in helping Republicans to nominate their least acceptable candidate, on Tuesday night the Republican lost in every single one of these races across the country. People make it sound like this was some massive widespread phenomenon. Democrats did this probably in about 20 or so races, maybe in about half of them the worst GOP candidate actually won the nomination, so we're talking about maybe eight to 10. In all of those the terrible Republican lost. And there were so many handwringers who were worried that Democrats were playing with fire and almost suggesting that it was the Democrats’ obligation to help Republicans nominate non-awful candidates, and that's BS; that's their problem, not ours.

And I want to highlight one race in particular where this was really, really important and that I think prompted the greatest freakout, and that's Michigan's 3rd congressional district. It's a race we've talked about before on this show. It's a district that was redrawn by the state's new independent redistricting commission; it's around the Grand Rapids area; it became significantly bluer; and Republican congressman Peter Meijer, he did exactly one good thing in his life, which was he voted for Donald Trump's impeachment, so that painted a huge target on his back. And Democrats nominated a really good candidate there, Hillary Scholten, who ran a close race against Meijer in 2020, but Meijer drew a primary challenge from an absolute lunatic named John Gibbs. This guy actually suggested that he opposed the 19th Amendment, the one that granted women the right to vote, that's how out there John Gibbs was.

And the DCCC spent some money toward the end of that primary to help Gibbs win, and God, Twitter was absolutely insufferable at that point. Gibbs beat Peter Meijer, and what did Peter Meijer supposed moderate, supposed rule of law lover do after the primary? He endorsed John Gibbs, he proved that he's just like the rest of them. And guess what happened on Tuesday night? Hillary Scholten won. That was a huge, huge pickup for Democrats. We still don't know exactly what's going to happen with control of the House, but no matter what happens, having that seat in Democrats hands and electing another woman to Congress is incredibly important for ensuring either that Democrats hold the House, or are in a better position to retake the house in the future.

David Beard:

And what I want to highlight about that topic in general is that we're talking about money getting spent in these races. This was not some sort of situation where Democrats were going in, thousands and thousands of voters, going in and trying to vote for the more extremist candidate in these parties, it was simply the Democratic party spending some money to highlight the more extremist candidate, which then Republican primary voters eagerly lapped up. The fault ultimately for nominating Gibbs is upon the Republican primary voters who voted for him, not on the fact that the Democratic Party took advantage of the fact that the Republican Party is a big fan of extremists.

One other issue I wanted to highlight from a big picture perspective was the Biden approval/disapproval question that we'd talked about a fair amount on the podcast, around what might happen with these Biden disapprovers who were undecided. The fear would be that they would run to Republicans in the end and cause a Republican year to turn out. And while obviously exit polls have a lot of problems—so you want to take them with a big grain of salt—you can look at and get a general sense of how this turned out. And from the exit poll you can see there are about 44% of people who either strongly or somewhat approved of Biden, and they went obviously overwhelmingly for Democrats. And then there were about 45% of the voters who strongly disapproved of Biden, and they overwhelmingly went for the Republicans, both as you would expect.

And then there were 10% of voters who somewhat disapproved of Biden, you can call it soft Biden disapprovers, and they went slightly for Democrats, 49% to 45%. Now that's not going to be an exact figure, because this is an exit poll, so I wouldn't take that four-point margin as gospel, but I do think what it shows you is that there was about 5% of the electorate, give or take, who were Biden disapprovers who voted for Democrats anyway, either because they were actually disapproving of Biden from the left, or they were worried about Republican extremism, or they were worried about abortion rights, whatever the reason was, those voters took the fact that they weren't happy with Biden and they still went and voted for Democrats, and they were key to this result being as good as it turned out to be.

David Nir:

And I think one big reason for that analytical error is that you see Joe Biden, he's the president, he's in the White House, he sucks up so much attention, especially for reporters, and so you naturally presume that someone who disapproves of him is going to be a Republican voter. Except the problem is that there are two parties on the ballot, and if you're only looking at Biden approvals, then you're missing the part of the analysis that requires you to look at, how do people view the GOP? What are the favorables of the Republican Party? To an extent, what do people think of Mitch McConnell or Kevin McCarthy? What do they think of Republicans generally?

And you're going to find that there are people who say that they don't like both, and knowing what those sorts of people are going to do, that's a tricky thing. And it turns out, Beard, as you were saying just a moment ago, that actually that this group of soft Biden disapprovers, who are probably also GOP disapprovers, well, they split pretty evenly. And you have to remember, you can't just look at presidential approval/disapproval ratings in a vacuum; there are always two sides to every election in this country.

David Beard:

And particularly when Donald Trump has obviously decided not to go away, or retire gracefully as so many former presidents do, and take somewhat of a step back from day-to-day politics, Donald Trump wants to be the center of attention all the time, and it's clearly bad for Republicans. The reality is Donald Trump has never won the popular vote, Republicans usually lose elections ever since he became their nominee in 2016, and he's a drag on the party, but they can't get away from him.

David Nir:

Well, I think now would be a really good time for us to actually talk about some of the elections that are still up in the air. Now we're recording this on Wednesday evening, the show will come out Thursday morning, some stuff will definitely have changed by the time you're listening to this, and especially if you're listening later on Thursday or on Friday. So we're going to keep this overview as general as possible, just be mindful that stuff, like I said, is going to change, so you should definitely be following us on Twitter at @DKelections. You need to be signed up to our newsletter, our free daily newsletter, called The Morning Digest, go to dailykos.com/morningdigest to sign up for that; we will keep you apprised of every call in every key race, I promise you. But for now we are going to do the best we possibly can to give you the lay of the land as things stand at the moment. Beard, what do we got?

David Beard:

There are four Senate races that haven't been decided yet—one of which, Alaska, is between two Republicans, so we're just going to set that aside, because that doesn't change the math of the Senate. So that leaves us with three states. Georgia has been called as a runoff between Senator Warnock and Herschel Walker, so that will be taking place on December 6th. That leaves us with two races where we're still waiting for results from Tuesday night to see whether Democrats will hold these two seats; they need to hold either both of these seats, or one of these seats and win the Georgia runoff, in order to get the 50 seats and retain a majority in the Senate.

So in Arizona we've got about 66% of the vote counted, as of Wednesday evening. Senator Mark Kelly, the Democrat, has an advantage of about five percentage points over his Republican opponent, Blake Masters. There are a lot of votes left to count, obviously most of those votes are votes that were either mailed in and received in the last day or two, so Monday or Tuesday, or mail votes that were dropped off on election day. The difference obviously is that the mail votes have to go through a different verification process than the actual election day votes—those obviously you get checked in and then you just cast your vote—but even if you drop off your mail vote on Election Day, that still has to go through the regular mail verification process.

So those votes don't really lean significantly one way or the other, looking at past history, compared to the early, early vote, which was strongly Democratic, as we expected, or the Election Day vote, which was strongly Republican. So those have been counted, and so mostly we have a big chunk of votes where we're not entirely sure which way those are going to lean, or if they're going to lean one way or another strongly. But I think the broad expectation is Kelly will probably be okay, but obviously with these many votes out, it's just not possible to make a call for anybody at this point.

David Beard:

Then in Nevada, we've got about 77% of the vote in. And there, Adam Laxalt, the Republican candidate, is narrowly leading incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto by a couple of points. The good news here is that the ballots remaining are almost entirely mail ballots that were either received Monday, Tuesday in the mail, or that were dropped off in person on Election Day.

And in Nevada, we would expect these to largely favor the Democrat. The question, of course, is exactly how many of those are left. And in Nevada, mail ballots can be received until Saturday as long as they were postmarked on election day. And so the question is how many of those ballots are still left to be counted and what exactly that margin will be because the mail ballot margin has jumped around a bit. They've almost always favored Democrats. But the question is, is it a small margin or is it a large margin? So that one is very much still up in the air and we just kind of have to wait for those mail ballots to be counted over the next few days.

David Nir:

And then amazingly, we're going to another runoff in Georgia. There is a really big difference though between this one and the one that took place last year, which is that after the 2020/2021 runoff that of course Warnock and John Ossoff won, Republicans were super pissed about those results. And you'll recall last year that they passed a huge package of voting restrictions to try to suppress the vote. And that bill included a provision that shrunk the runoff period from nine weeks to just four weeks. The runoff last year was in January. This time it's going to be on December 6th. Republicans seem to think that this offers them some sort of advantage. I'm not really clear why, especially since Warnock is such a vastly better fundraiser than Herschel Walker is.

One thing to note is that you might be aware that Donald Trump supposedly has some sort of announcement plan for November 15th, that's a week after election day, and everyone seems convinced that he's planning to announce a third bid for the presidency that day. But some of his sycophants are now begging him to put off that announcement until after the runoff on December 6th because he completely screwed up the last runoff. We can't say for certain what kind of impact that had on the race, but given that Democrats narrowly won those two runoffs, we can say that it probably wasn't a good thing that Donald Trump was running his mouth off. I think that a Trump presidential announcement next week would not be good news for Herschel Walker.

David Beard:

The other potential factor there is that there's a good chance that we'll know who controls the House of Representatives by the time the runoff takes place. And I think as we'll talk about soon, there's a good chance that's probably the Republicans, if extremely narrowly. And if Arizona and Nevada are both won by Democrats, that would also cement Democratic control of the Senate regardless of the result of the Georgia runoff. And then the race can become a lot less about which party controls Congress, will there be a check on the Biden administration if there's a Republican House in that case, and focus a lot more on the candidates. Because if there's not, that sort of national issue at the same level as there was when people were voting this past time, I think there's a chance that there are going to be Republicans who really, really don't like Herschel Walker who will either stay home and not bother with the runoff or even vote for Warnock if control of the Senate isn't at stake or if there's already a check on Biden in the House. So I think that could go to Warnock's benefit as well.

David Nir:

So let's talk about the House. Obviously it is a real moving target. There are so many races in play. How should we think about this?

David Beard:

So I think the Republicans are still pretty clearly favored to eke out at least 218 seats and have a majority. Whether that's a functional majority or not, we'll see, and we can talk about that later. But the Republicans, as I see it, currently either have called or are pretty strongly favored in 215 seats and the Democrats either have called or are pretty strongly favored in 207 seats, which leave about 13 seats, where it's really not 100% clear who is the favored party at this point, again, as of Wednesday evening. And this will continue to change in the days ahead.

So Democrats would need to win 11 of those 13 seats to actually get a majority of 218 seats. I have them currently, if I absolutely had to push them one way or another, I have them favored in eight, but it's so up in the air a lot of these seats that it's really, I think, not even useful to think about it in that way. I think it's best to think of there being 13 races where it's not clear which party is favored. And so if Democrats can somehow win 11 of those seats, they can win a majority. But I think that's a tough road. I think you most likely end up with Republicans somewhere in the nature of 220 seats, 221, something like that, and just an absolutely crazy majority that they have to wrangle for Kevin McCarthy, if he does end up becoming Speaker.

David Nir:

Yeah. We don't usually talk about the goings on in parliamentary maneuvering on Capitol Hill, but I think it's worth pausing here for a second to discuss that possibility. If Kevin McCarthy is speaker of the House with let's say 220 members in his caucus, you are going to see such a stark difference between his skill set and Nancy Pelosi's. Nancy Pelosi, we talk about the 50/50 Senate and how well Democrats did with that, Nancy Pelosi did an incredible job managing more than four times as many members in her caucus with a majority that was almost as narrow. I mean, she had times where she had 1, 2, 3 seat real advantages in a lot of roll call votes, and she kept it together the whole time.

McCarthy, man, I mean Matt Gaetz is already reportedly whipping votes against McCarthy in a vote for Speaker of the House. Now, I would love to delve into the nitty gritty of how that vote would work. We'll save that for another day. The fact is that McCarthy would have virtually no room for error, and that guy is just one big error. Even if he becomes Speaker, I really don't see him having much control over that nightmare, nightmare caucus. Anyway, let's put a pin in that one. There's still a lot of game left to play. And of course, like I said, we will be tracking all of it really, really closely.

One area that we have to address today, of course we started talking about abortion at the top of the show, but you'll recall that abortion was literally on the ballot in five key states. There were ballot measures relating to abortion and reproductive rights that went before voters in California, Vermont, Michigan, Kentucky, and Montana. And it was a clean sweep for the good guys.

So we can group them into three categories. California, Vermont, and Michigan all had measures on the ballot to amend their state constitutions to affirmatively recognize the right to an abortion. So those states all passed those measures by considerable margins. And now those constitutions will enshrine a right to an abortion and hopefully serve as a model for other blue states that really ought to do the same thing. This means that especially in a swing state like Michigan, that even if Republicans do regain control of the state government... and by the way, one of the most amazing things that happened on Tuesday night was that Democrats have won a trifecta, meaning they won both chambers of the Michigan legislature and the governorship for the first time in a bajillion years. But if Republicans ever take back state government in Michigan, they would find having almost impossible time rolling back abortion rights because it's in the state constitution now.

Now let's talk about Kentucky. Kentucky had a measure on the ballot that was very similar to the one that was defeated in Kansas this summer that would've amended the state constitution to say it does not include a right to an abortion. And voters turned that back. Now, it was a much smaller margin than in Kansas, except Kentucky's much redder even than Kansas. Donald Trump won the state by about 26 points. So the fact that there was a pro-choice majority in deep red Kentucky is really, really amazing.

Similarly, in Montana, also another very red state, voters there rejected a measure that wasn't directly related to abortion, but that emerged from the same anti-abortion rights movement, the measure would have required doctors to provide life-saving care to infants who are born but have absolutely no chance of living. It was incredibly cruel. It would require doctors to wrench dying babies from the arms of their parents who just want to hold them for a few minutes before they give up their short little lives and do unspeakably cruel things to these fragile bodies that are already going to die. It was absolutely, absolutely evil stuff and Montana voters rejected it. So again, a huge clean sweep for progressives on abortion rights. We got to put abortion rights on the ballot everywhere every year, don't you think, Beard?

David Beard:

Absolutely. I'm not sure that there is a state in the country that would pass an abortion ban if they voted on it through a popular vote after Kentucky defeated theirs. There aren't many states out there that are more socially conservative than Kentucky. Again, I say that from love because I was born in Kentucky, but it's a deep, deep red state at this point.

The other flag I want to make is Michigan. Michigan was one of the ground zero states for this abortion fight. It was also one of the ground zero states for the democracy fight, and it had one of the best performances for Democrats in the whole country. They basically won everything at almost every level. And I think that shows that those issues, the more that they mattered and the more that they pushed through, the better Democrats did.

David Nir:

And there will be ballot measures on abortion on the ballot in 2024. Activists are already moving forward in South Dakota. And if they can win in Kentucky, like you said, then they can win in South Dakota and lots of other states like that. So stay tuned on that front because there will be plenty more to come.

David Beard:

And lastly, we want to wrap up with a bit of schadenfreude. Obviously after an election night like Tuesday and so many expectations around the incredible Republican red wave that so many people were so sure of. We can't help but look back at a few predictions that maybe were not quite right. But first I want to start with an anonymous top Pennsylvania Democrat, who after the John Fetterman debate performance, who people were concerned about, because obviously he stumbled over his words a number of times. There were some answers that weren't great and concerns about, obviously, his medical history and his recovery from the stroke.

But instead of having a reasonable response to that, this anonymous top Pennsylvania Democrat went to a journalist and said, "If I'm the Democrats," this person said, "I'm putting my money in Ohio." Well, that person shouldn't work in politics anymore, because Democrats won in Pennsylvania and they lost in Ohio, which is what I think most people would've expected based on the fundamentals and based on Fetterman's continued popularity throughout the entire campaign. So the over reliance on this one debate that probably changed very few minds is just absolutely, absolutely crazy.

David Nir:

Yeah, and that's a perfect example of Beltway Media Group think. And also, you know what? I am so beyond sick of these Democratic operatives and strategists and consultants treating reporters like their therapists. Go find a real therapist. Go out there and spend your time doing real work. Why was this supposed top Democrat wasting time talking to a reporter, to kvetch about John Fetterman, instead of helping John Fetterman win? Well, I hope Fetterman has some guesses as to who that is. I certainly have no idea, but that person ought to be persona non grata forever.

David Beard:

The other article I would like to quote a few excerpts from is from the New Yorker from November 4th, titled “Why Republican Insiders Think That GOP is Poised For a Blowout,” and it has such wonderful quotes such as, speaking about the defection of Hispanics to the GOP in Nevada, the Republican strategist told me, "The reasons that Democrats have fucked this up is that they won't stop talking about abortion. And the reason they screwed it up with Blacks is they won't stop talking about abortion. It's like they're a two-issue party. It's this and Trump. They can't stop. I don't think they have anything else." Well, it turned out we didn't need anything else. That was plenty.

David Nir:

Yeah. And let's not forget about the fretting about how Black voters, especially Black men, were deserting Democrats supposedly. Man, is there anything the pundits got right this year?

David Beard:

I know. There is so far no evidence. Obviously, there'll be lots of investigations into precincts and a lot of vote analysis, but it doesn't look like any of that came true. Then a couple more quotes before we wrap from that same article. "The Republican pollster who has been regularly surveying Pennsylvania, told me that when it came to the Democratic focus on abortion, there just doesn't seem to be any specificity. You'd want to do it with high-education, high-income supporters. It's like, no, they're running on abortion constantly.” I'm like, “Scranton.” And again, apparently abortion is something people like to have available in Scranton. Surprise, surprise.

David Nir:

Guess what? We won a huge race in Scranton last night. Democratic Congressman Matt Cartwright, who was running in a Trump district and a top GOP target. He won reelection, because they like abortion in Scranton. They like it everywhere.

David Beard:

And then to wrap on another quote from that same pollster, from the same article. "I can show you the trajectory of all our races. We took a benchmark in July. Okay, this is going to be harder than we thought. And then it looks like a V. We went straight down. And then once we finally got to October, we have enough money, the electorate becomes more fully engaged. And then the other side of the V is straight back up. I can show you the same story in probably 25 races." And what that tells me is that the polls were all over the place for Republicans, because I personally really, really doubt the idea that the electorate had this massive change up and down. And then obviously clearly didn't end up on the V for Republicans anyway.

But I don't think this is what was happening. I think the race was a lot more stable than that. And these insider polls that jump all over the place are not accurately reflecting what the public is thinking. And so that's something that we should take forward into future cycles as well. Like these insider polls that pop up and down and start influencing the narrative, they're probably not worth that much.

David Nir:

Yeah, there was this almost meme, this notion that during the summer when Democrats were doing well in Kansas and doing well in all of those House special elections, that somehow Democratic voters almost had the playing field to themselves. Republicans were disengaged. And then in the fall that they were going to become reengaged by the economy and inflation and GOP scaremongering about crime. And man, that just didn't happen. I mean, we still have a ways to go before we see what all the data looks like, but Tuesday felt certainly a lot closer to the summertime elections, than it did to an election in a normal midterm, that's for sure.

David Beard:

And in terms of looking at evidence that helps you predict an election, the things that really held up this election were A, the generic ballot polling from nonpartisan pollsters, which was right about neutral, give or take a point on either side. And that's probably about where we'll end up. And then the special elections that took place. And the Washington State top two primary that were actual elections that people voted in, in August, and surprise, surprise, were actually how people voted in November as well. So those are the kinds of things you can actually take from and extrapolate to think how an election might go. Random insider polls from Republican pollsters, probably not.

David Nir:

Yeah, there's obviously going to have to be a big rethink, not just from pollsters themselves, but also from analysts about how they consume polling. It is a huge, huge topic. I'm sure we will talk about it plenty in the coming election cycle. But for now, I think it's time to call a lid on this week's episode of The Downballot. Like I said, we are following all of the uncalled races like hawks. Follow us, DKElections on Twitter. Sign up for our newsletter, dailykos.com/morningdigest. You'll get that in your inbox at 8:00 AM Eastern for free every weekday.

We will cover everything and we will continue this conversation next week's episode. Thank you so much for joining us. We hope that The Downballot was illuminating and informative this entire election cycle. We will continue to be here for many, many, many weeks to come. So please tune in again next week. And thank you to those who have subscribed. We will have another great episode next Thursday.

Highlights from The Downballot: We recap an amazing election night

This week on The Downballot, hosts David Nir and David Beard unpack the amazing election night we had on Tuesday — especially in Michigan — and talk more about why Democrats need to keep abortion front and center in their platform. They also take a look at how Biden’s approval ratings affected downballot races, why the GOP keeps on choosing “terrible” candidates, and the enduring importance of election fairness and protecting our nation’s democracy.

You can listen below or subscribe to The Downballot wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also find a transcript for this week right here. New episodes come out every Thursday!

Tuesday was, no doubt, a historic election night that defied the odds, with Democrats poised to maintain their majority in the Senate.

“I just feel like the entire life of this podcast has been us warning people. "Oh, it's a midterm, Democratic president, probably going to be a bad year, historically, yada, yada." And now here we are. And it was actually pretty good,” Beard said, relieved.

“I think just about every other Democrat went into Tuesday night with extremely low expectations. I had tried to steel myself for the worst, and it was just one upside surprise after another,” Nir replied. “And I have been following elections for 20 years. I can't recall feeling that way on election night before.”

Beard pointed out that Democrats just had to hold on past Florida, where there was a small Republican wave — “Florida will always break your heart,” he quipped — and then, the rest of the country was just victory after victory.

Democrats have gotten so used to disappointment, Nir said, that we almost forget what winning looks like. The hosts went on to unpack those wins and why we won.

Nir also urged Democrats to continue focusing on the issue of abortion rights. As he put it, “Despite the pundits in the fall who tried to tell us that this was not the right issue for Democrats to be pursuing, that Democrats were making a huge mistake in not focusing on the economy or other issues. Abortion was a massive factor in this incredible upset of a night.”

Beard agreed:

I think all those people, who said that Dobbs would just sort of fade away, and that after three months it was going to no longer be at the front of people's minds, were just crazy. Look at the history of the fight for abortion rights that has been going on for decades or longer, in some places across the world.

And the idea that this massive, massive change was going to cause sort of a temporary spike for a couple of months in Democrats' polling and then just fade away is, in retrospect, just a crazy, crazy idea. That is not how real regular people view politics. They don't view it as this narrative that so many people in DC, in the sort of punditocracy, want to view it as like, "Oh, Dobbs happened."

Then there was a whole story about it, August special elections narrative, and then other things happened. So we have to move on in the narrative to other issues. But for millions and millions of people, this is a huge core issue that they're not going to forget about and they're going to vote on.

Democracy protection also emerged as a main theme of Tuesday night. “It turned out is that a lot of people do care about democracy. A lot of people do care about fairness and election results, and those being treated as important as they really are. And they voted on that,” Beard said. “We [saw] election deniers losing race after race. We saw Democrats, who were going to protect elections rights, winning governor's races, winning secretary of state's races. And I really believe that issue did matter and did break through.”

Nir added that it seemed as though Republicans believed there was no price to be paid for being an extremist, when it comes to authoritarianism, and rejecting democracy, and rejecting the rule of law. He also called out reporters for going along with this narrative and buying into a “both sidesism” that simply ended up painting a false picture of the reality:

The traditional way that the media works, of presenting both sides, and refusing to take a side, or calling out lies on one side and admitting that the other side is actually true and correct and right, that I think gave Republicans a lot of permission to think that there would be no price to pay. Because reporters didn't care. But reporters are not voters, and the voters really, really did care. And there are a lot of ways we can look at this. You mentioned all of the races where the big name GOP election deniers lost.

In a number of secretary of state races in several states, the Democrats won by bigger margins in those races than in a lot of the other statewide races. This is also telling of how much Americans care about protecting election fairness and defending our nation’s democracy, Nir insisted:

[It] blows my mind because I am a massive election nerd. I really care about this stuff. I have been talking about the importance of these kinds of races, especially secretary of state races, for a really, really long time. And most people, they're not going to pay that much attention to what's going on in specific downballot statewide races. But we have some pretty clear evidence this time that they really did, that more people were voting for Democrats running for secretary of state than for other offices. And there's only one possible explanation for that. And the answer is that, wow, they actually really, really care about democracy and fairness and elections, and the rule of law.

In terms of voters taking elections seriously, this past election reinforced the idea that candidate quality still matters. Republicans nominated an array of terrible candidates, some of whom were “genuinely terrible human beings,” Nir argued, which had an impact. Ultimately, GOP paid a price.

Beard thinks it indicates an incentive problem, and that is why it's so hard for the Republicans to fix:

As long as it's Donald Trump's party, the type of people who Donald Trump are going to like and endorse, and probably win primaries. And the type of people who are going to want to run in Donald Trump's Republican Party, are charlatans, are people with bad histories, people who are extremists, who are election deniers. All of that stuff attracts people to Donald Trump's GOP. And as long as it's Donald Trump's GOP, those are the candidates you're going to get.

You can look at the five Republican candidates in the key Senate races this year, which is Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, Donald Bolduc in New Hampshire, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, and Blake Masters in Arizona. And that is not a murderer's row. It is some of the worst Senate candidates, probably, that any major party has nominated in recent history, particularly Blake Masters, Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz. Like just terrible candidates with terrible favorables, lots of scandals.

And as a result, Oz lost. Walker is probably going to a runoff, and is slightly behind heading into the runoff. Masters is, I think, probably going to lose in Arizona. And you can chalk that up, in at least large part, to the fact that they're terrible candidates with terrible favorables.

Strategic Democratic primary meddling also worked out, which Nir expanded on.

Yeah, it 100% worked out, in fact … there was so much hand ringing during the primary season about races where Democrats looked at the GOP primary field and said, you know what? We're going to have a better chance at winning in the general election if this total schmuck beats out the somewhat less bad guy. Democrats very wisely said, we're going to get involved here, and we are simply going to help the ultra-MAGA brigades do what they're already wanting to do, and that is nominate the worst of the worst, and if we do that then we're going to have a better chance at winning. And that's really important because we need the party that believes in democracy, i.e. the Democrats, to win elections. This isn't just about raw power or screwing with the GOP for the sake of it, this is about preserving democracy.

And so in all of these races where Democrats succeeded in helping Republicans to nominate their least acceptable candidate, on Tuesday night the Republican lost in every single one of these races across the country. People make it sound like this was some massive widespread phenomenon. Democrats did this probably in about 20 or so races, maybe in about half of them the worst GOP candidate actually won the nomination, so we're talking about maybe eight to 10. In all of those the terrible Republican lost. And there were so many hand ringers who were worried that Democrats were playing with fire and almost suggesting that it was the Democrat's obligation to help Republicans nominate non-awful candidates, and that's BS, that's their problem not ours.

The hosts also highlighted one district in particular — Michigan's third congressional district, adn a race we've talked about before on this show. This is a district that was redrawn by the state's new independent redistricting commission, around the Grand Rapids area. With the new map lines, it became significantly bluer, and Republican congressman Peter Meijer, who had voted for Donald Trump's impeachment, ended up with a huge target painted on his back. Democrats nominated a strong candidate there, Hillary Scholten, who ended up winning.

At this point, Beard touched on Biden’s approval ratings and how that had played out, as many wondered what might happen with Biden disapprovers who were undecided. Beard’s assessment was as follows:

The fear would be that they would run to Republicans in the end and cause a Republican year to turn out. And while obviously exit polls have a lot of problems, so you want to take them with a big grain of salt, you can look at and get a general sense of how this turned out. And from the exit poll you can see there are about 44% of people who either strongly or somewhat approved of Biden, and they went obviously overwhelmingly for Democrats. And then there were about 45% of the voters who strongly disapproved of Biden, and they overwhelmingly went for the Republicans, both as you would expect.

And then there were 10% of voters who somewhat disapproved of Biden, you can call it soft Biden disapprovers, and they went slightly for Democrats, 49% to 45%. Now that's not going to be an exact figure, because this is an exit poll, so I wouldn't take that four point margin as gospel, but I do think what it shows you is that there was about 5% of the electorate, give or take, who were Biden disapprovers who voted for Democrats anyway, either because they were actually disapproving of Biden from the left, or they were worried about Republican extremism, or they were worried about abortion rights, whatever the reason was, those voters took the fact that they weren't happy with Biden and they still went and voted for Democrats, and they were key to this result being as good as it turned out to be.

There are also four Senate races that haven't been decided yet, which the hosts walked listeners through.

Alaska is between two Republicans, so they set it aside because that doesn't change the math of the Senate.

Georgia has been called as a runoff between Senator Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker, so that will be taking place on December 6th.

In Arizona, around 66% of the vote had been counted as of Wednesday evening. Senator Mark Kelly, the Democrat, has an advantage of about five percentage points over his Republican opponent, Blake Masters. There are a lot of votes left to count, obviously most of those votes are votes that were either mailed in and received in the last day or two, so Monday or Tuesday, or mail votes that were dropped off on election day. The difference obviously is that the mail votes have to go through a different verification process than the actual election day votes, those obviously you get checked in and then you just cast your vote, but even if you drop off your mail vote on election day, that still has to go through the regular mail verification process.

So those votes don't really lean significantly one way or the other, looking at past history, compared to the early, early vote, which was strongly democratic, as we expected, or the election day vote, which was strongly Republican. So those have been counted, and so mostly we have a big chunk of votes where we're not entirely sure which way those are going to lean, or if they're going to lean one way or another strongly. But I think the broad expectation is Kelly will probably be okay, but obviously with these many votes out, it's just not possible to make a call for anybody at this point.

Then in Nevada, about 77% of the vote is in. There, Adam Laxalt, the Republican candidate, is narrowly leading incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto by a couple of points. The good news here is that the ballots remaining are almost entirely mail ballots that were either received Monday, Tuesday in the mail, or that were dropped off in person on election day.

In Nevada, we would expect these to largely favor the Democrat. The question, of course, is exactly how many of those are left. In that state, mail ballots can be received until Saturday as long as they were postmarked on Election Day. And so the question is how many of those ballots are still left to be counted and what exactly that margin will be because the mail ballot margin has jumped around a bit. They've almost always favored Democrats. But the question is, is it a small margin or is it a large margin? So that one is very much still up in the air and we just kind of have to wait for those male ballots to be counted over the next few days.

Nir pointed out one major difference though between this runoff and the one that took place last year, the 2020/2021 runoff that of course Warnock and John Ossoff won. Last year, Republicans in Georgia passed a huge package of voting restrictions to try to suppress the vote — and that bill included a provision that shrunk the runoff period from nine weeks to just four weeks. The runoff last year was in January. This time, it will be on December 6th. “Republicans seem to think that this offers them some sort of advantage. I'm not really clear why especially since Warnock is such a vastly better fundraiser than Herschel Walker is,” Nir quipped.

Beard and Nir also discussed how Donald Trump supposedly has some sort of announcement plan for November 15th, that's a week after election day, and everyone seems convinced that he's planning to announce a third bid for the presidency that day. Regardless of what he says, Nir thinks that a Trump presidential announcement next week would not be good news for Herschel Walker.

Beard moved on to talk about the fact that there is a good chance we'll know who controls the House of Representatives by the time the runoff takes place, and how that could shift the race further in Warnock’s favor:

If Arizona and Nevada are both won by Democrats, that would also cement Democratic control of the Senate regardless of the result of the Georgia runoff. And then the race can become a lot less about which party controls Congress, will there be a check on the Biden administration if there's a Republican House in that case, and focus a lot more on the candidates. Because if there's not, that sort of national issue at the same level as there was when people were voting this past time, I think there's a chance that they're going to be Republicans who really, really don't like Herschel Walker who will either stay home and not bother with the runoff or even vote for Warnock if control of the Senate isn't at stake or if there's already a check on Biden in the House. So I think that could go to Warnock's benefit as well.

Assessing the House races, Nir noted that remains a real moving target. With so many races in play, how should we think about this?

Beard thinks there is a very narrow road for Democrats as they seek to maintain their majority, but that things are still very much shaking out. Either way, he explained, it will be a difficult situation to handle for the GOP given how slim their majority will be:

So I think the Republicans are still pretty clearly favored to eke out at least 218 seats and have a majority. Whether that's a functional majority or not, we'll see, and we can talk about that later. But the Republicans, as I see it, currently either have called are pretty strongly favored in 215 seats and the Democrats either have called are pretty strongly favored in 207 seats, which leave about 13 seats, where it's really not 100% clear who is the favored party at this point, again, as of Wednesday evening. And this will continue to change in the days ahead.

So Democrats would need to win 11 of those 13 seats to actually get a majority of 218 seats. I have them currently, if I absolutely had to push them one way or another, I have them favored in eight, but it's so up in the air a lot of these seats that it's really, I think, not even useful to think about it in that way. I think it's best to think of there being 13 races where it's not clear which party is favored. And so if Democrats can somehow win 11 of those seats, they can win a majority. But I think that's a tough road. I think you most likely end up with Republicans somewhere in the nature of 220 seats, 221, something like that, and just an absolutely crazy majority that have to wrangle for Kevin McCarthy if he does end up becoming speaker.

The hosts closed out with a thorough discussion of the importance of putting abortion on the ballot, and front and center in Democrats’ platform.

Kentucky had a measure on the ballot that was very similar to the one that was defeated in Kansas this summer that would've amended the state constitution to say it does not include a right to an abortion — and voters turned that back. It was a much smaller margin than in Kansas, but Kentucky is much redder even than Kansas; it was a state where Donald Trump won by about 26 points. “So the fact that there was a pro-choice majority in deep red Kentucky is really, really amazing,” Nir said.

Similarly, in Montana, also another very red state, voters rejected a measure that wasn't directly related to abortion, but that emerged from the same anti-abortion rights movement. The measure would have required doctors to provide life-saving care to infants who are born but have absolutely no chance of living. “It was incredibly cruel … It was absolutely, absolutely evil stuff, and Montana voters rejected it. So again, a huge clean sweep for Progressives on abortion rights,” Nir observed. “We’ve got to put abortion rights on the ballot everywhere every year, don't you think, Beard?”

Beard agreed, noting that it would be hard to fathom a state in the country that would pass an abortion ban if they voted on it through a popular vote after Kentucky defeated theirs — as there aren't many states out there that are more socially conservative than Kentucky. “I say that from love because I was born in Kentucky, but it's a deep, deep red state at this point,” he added.

He also flagged what happened in Michigan, as Michigan was one of the ground zero states for this abortion fight — and a bellwether for what might be to come:

It was one of the ground zero states for the democracy fight, and it had one of the best performances for Democrats in the whole country. They basically want everything at almost every level. And I think that shows that those issues, the more that they mattered and the more that they pushed through, the better Democrats did.

The Downballot comes out every Thursday everywhere you listen to podcasts! As a reminder, you can reach our hosts by email at thedownballot@dailykos.com. Please send in any questions you may have for next week's mailbag. You can also reach out via Twitter at @DKElections.

The Daily Kos Elections hour-by-hour guide to election night 2022

Election night is almost here—Tuesday!—and we have a lot of exciting races in store across the country for Senate, governor, and House. There are also several contests for attorney general and secretary of state in swing states that could play a big role in future years in determining how elections are overseen and certified.

What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's key elections. At the top of this post is our map showing poll closing times across the country. All times are Eastern, though we also have versions of this map for each of the other U.S. time zones.

You can also find the 2020 presidential results for the nation’s new congressional districts here, as well as the results for the lines that were used in the 2020 elections. (Note that many incumbents are running in districts with different numbers than the ones they represent now.) For interactive maps of the new districts, check out Dave's Redistricting App.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races and more after the first polls close at 6 PM ET on election night, so please join us at Daily Kos Elections for our complete coverage.

6 PM ET

Indiana (Eastern Time Zone), and Kentucky (Eastern Time Zone)

The first hour of election night will be pretty quiet. Indiana Sen. Todd Young and his fellow Republican, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, are both secure, and there are no competitive House races in the eastern parts of either state.

7 PM ET

Florida (Eastern Time Zone), Indiana (rest of state), Kentucky (rest of state), Georgia, New Hampshire (most towns), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

Florida: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has massively outraised his Democratic rival, former Rep. Charlie Crist, and it will be a true surprise if he struggles in a state that has been moving to the right in recent years. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, faces considerably better-funded opposition from Democratic Rep. Val Demings, but polls show the incumbent in good shape.

There aren’t many competitive House races because DeSantis successfully pressured the GOP legislature to aggressively gerrymander the map to create 20 districts that Donald Trump would have won versus just eight that Joe Biden would have carried: Under the old map, Trump would have won just 15 seats to Biden’s 12 (Florida gained a district thanks to reapportionment).

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the House GOP’s main super PAC, has been spending heavily in the 27th District to help freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar fend off state Sen. Annette Taddeo in a Miami-area constituency that Trump would have narrowly carried. However, House Majority PAC (HMP) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which have enjoyed access to considerably less money than their GOP rival, have not been airing ads here or in any other Florida contests.

The newly created 15th District in the Tampa and northeastern suburbs is also worth watching at just 51-48 Trump, but there hasn’t been any serious outside spending on either side. The contest pits former Republican Secretary of State Laurel Lee against Democrat Alan Cohn, a former local TV anchor who was Team Blue’s 2020 nominee, against now-Rep. Scott Franklin (who is running in the 18th).

The St. Petersburg-based 13th District, where Crist resigned over the summer to focus on his statewide bid, has also looked like a likely GOP pickup for 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna ever since the new map transformed it from a seat Biden would have taken 51-47 to one that Trump would have carried 53-46. Former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, though, has benefited from heavy spending from a PAC funded by his cousin, and a recent independent poll showed a very tight race.

Finally, we have an incumbent vs. incumbent battle in North Florida’s 2nd district between Republican Neal Dunn and Democrat Al Lawson. This new constituency is tough turf for Lawson at 55-44 Trump, and Dunn currently represents about twice as many residents here. And again, thanks to gerrymandering, the 7th in the Orlando area looks like an automatic flip for the GOP. The GOP is also well positioned to take the new 4th around Jacksonville.

Indiana: The 1st District in the northwestern corner of the state has been safely Democratic turf for generations, but while Biden would have prevailed 53-45 here, the area’s gradual shift to the right during the Trump era gives Republicans a big opening against freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. The incumbent is trying to fend off Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green, who would be the first African American to represent Indiana in Congress, in a battle that has attracted huge spending from outside groups on both sides.

Georgia: The biggest battle in the Peach State is the contest between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who flipped this seat in a famous 2021 special election, and former football star Herschel Walker. Georgia requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in order to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff, and Libertarian Chase Oliver’s presence on the ballot means this tight race could well go to a second round once again.

The race for governor is a rematch from the close 2018 election between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. However, most surveys show Kemp in strong shape this time around and positioned to win outright despite the candidacy of Libertarian Shane Hazel.

The only seriously contested House race in the state is the 2nd District in southwestern Georgia, a 55-44 Biden constituency where Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is trying to turn back Air Force veteran Chris West. However, while Republicans have spent months talking about taking down the 30-year incumbent, major GOP groups have stayed on the sidelines while Democrats have spent millions against West. There are no other candidates in the running, so this race will not be going to a runoff barring an exact tie. Republicans, meanwhile, should have no trouble flipping the 6th District in the Atlanta area thanks to their new gerrymander.

Two Republican incumbents who survived Trump-driven primary challenges, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr, are also seeking new four-year terms. Polls show them leading their respective Democratic opponents, state Rep. Bee Nguyen and state Sen. Jen Jordan, though they disagree on how far ahead the two Republicans are. A Libertarian is also competing in each contest.

New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is trying to fend off retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, a Republican who has ardently embraced the Big Lie, in a state that often swings wildly between the two parties, but no one agrees just how competitive this contest really is. Most polls show a tight race, but Bolduc’s would-be backers at the Senate Leadership Fund dramatically pulled out of the state weeks before Election Day in an apparent vote of no confidence. Other right-wing groups, though, have gotten involved since then, while Hassan’s allies at Senate Majority PAC never stopped treating this as competitive.

The 1st District in the eastern half of the state has long been one of the swingiest House seats in America, and this year’s expensive matchup pits Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas against Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump White House staffer who has eagerly embraced the Big Lie. The bluer 2nd in western and northern New Hampshire has been much quieter, though HMP took action in the final week of the campaign to aid Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster against her underfunded GOP foe, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns.

Virginia: Two Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave, 2nd District Rep. Elaine Luria and 7th District Rep. Abigail Spanberger, are engaged in competitive fights to hang on in a tough political climate. Luria, whose suburban Hampton Roads seat narrowly favored Biden, has emphasized the Jan. 6 attack in her contest against state Sen. Jen Kiggans, a Republican who voted for a $70 million “forensic audit” of the 2020 results.

Spanberger, meanwhile, is defending a dramatically redrawn seat that saw Biden’s margin of victory swell from 50-49 to 53-46 after a court-drawn map swapped out the Richmond suburbs for more Democratic areas near Washington, D.C. Spanberger’s opponent is Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, who made news for saying of pregnancies that result from rape, “[I]t's not something that's happening organically.”

Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, by contrast, is in stronger shape in the 10th District in Northern Virginia, but she still faces a well-funded challenge from Navy veteran Hung Cao. Cao released an internal poll in October showing him narrowly trailing Wexton in this 58-40 Biden seat, but that didn’t convince major GOP groups to get involved on his behalf.

7:30 PM ET

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

North Carolina: The main draw in the Tarheel State is the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr between far-right Rep. Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as chief justice of the state Supreme Court. Most polls show a small lead for Budd in a state where Republicans have won several tight elections over the last decade.

The most expensive House race in the state, meanwhile, is the battle for the open GOP-held 13th District in the Raleigh suburbs, another seat Biden would have narrowly taken. The GOP is all in for Bo Hines, a former college football player who has weak ties to the area, while Democrats are pulling for state Sen. Wiley Nickel.

There’s also a fight for the open, Democratic-held 1st District in inland northeastern North Carolina, but Republican primary voters jeopardized their chances by ignoring the multiple abuse allegations that have been leveled against 2020 nominee Sandy Smith and nominating her again. CLF, which tried to stop Smith from winning the primary, has bypassed this race along with the NRCC, but Democrats have continued to spend millions to support state Sen. Don Davis.

Ohio: The GOP has unexpectedly had to spend massive amounts of money to hold onto the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rob Portman, but Democrats still have a tough task in a longtime swing state that's moved hard to the right during the Trump era. The GOP nominee is venture capitalist J.D. Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author who has run a truly weak campaign, while Democrats are fielding Rep. Tim Ryan. Most polls show Vance with a small lead, but his allies are continuing to deploy money here instead of in less Trumpy states.

Team Blue is also hoping to unseat veteran Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in the Cincinnati based 1st District, which transformed from a 51-48 Trump seat to one that Biden would have won 53-45. The Democrats have nominated Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman in another very pricey House race.

Republicans, for their part, believed they’d have a strong shot at denying Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur a 21st term after they turned her reliably blue 9th District around Toledo into a 51-48 Trump constituency, but that was before they nominated QAnon ally J.R. Majewski. National Republicans abandoned Majewski in September after the AP reported that he'd lied about serving in Afghanistan, but Kaptur’s allies have continued to spend like he’s a threat.

Finally, there’s a spendy race in the open Democratic-held 13th, a 51-48 Biden seat in the Akron and Canton areas, between Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who served as a Women for Trump co-chair. Republicans have spent heavily to link Sykes, who is Black, to crime by citing her support for a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill that never became law.

8 PM ET

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (rest of state), Illinois, Kansas (Central Time Zone), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Eastern Time Zone), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (rest of state), New Jersey, North Dakota (Central Time Zone), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central Time Zone), Tennessee, Texas (Central Time Zone), Washington, D.C.

Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont won a tight 2018 race against Republican Bob Stefanowski, but most polls show Lamont well-positioned in this year’s rematch between the two wealthy candidates. Surveys also show Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal similarly situated against Leora Levy, who is Trump’s former ambassador to Chile.

The big contest in the Nutmeg State is in the 5th District in northwestern Connecticut, where Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes faces a tough fight against former state Sen. George Logan. Biden would have won 55-44 here, but both parties have dropped millions on this race since Labor Day.

Illinois: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his allies worked hard during the June primary to influence Republicans to nominate far-right state Sen. Darren Bailey instead of a candidate with a more appealing profile, and independent polls show the incumbent well ahead in this blue state. Still, conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein has continued to pump money into an uphill effort to beat the governor.

Democratic legislators, meanwhile, drew up a congressional map under which Biden would have carried 14 of the 17 seats, compared to 12 of the 18 existing districts (Illinois lost a seat after the 2020 census), but Team Blue still has several tough fights.

The most competitive race in the state is arguably the battle to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos in the 17th District, a north-central Illinois seat that shifted from 50-48 Trump to 53-45 Biden. Both sides have spent heavily in the contest between 2020 Republican nominee Esther Joy King, who came close to beating Bustos last time, and former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen, who would be the state’s first gay member of Congress.

Former Biden administration official Nikki Budzinski appears to be in better shape further to the south in the open 13th District, a GOP-held seat that dramatically transformed from 51-47 Trump to 54-43 Biden. Republican Regan Deering, whose family ran the agribusiness giant Archer-Daniels-Midland for more than 40 years, stepped up after Rep. Rodney Davis decided to wage an unsuccessful primary bid against far-right colleague Mary Miller in the 15th District rather than defend this unfavorable turf, but major GOP outside groups have sat on the sidelines. The DCCC also cut its planned spending a month ago in an optimistic sign for Budzinski, but HMP has continued to run ads here.

A trio of Democratic incumbents in the Chicago suburbs, though, are looking vulnerable in the final days of the race. Both HMP and CLF rushed in with ads in the final week in the 6th District, where Rep. Sean Casten faces Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau. The far-right Club for Growth, meanwhile, has spent over $1 million on a late attempt to help former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf take down 11th District Rep. Bill Foster. HMP, finally, began airing ads late in the race to aid 14th District Rep. Lauren Underwood against Kendall County Board Chair Scott Gryder. The most competitive of these seats is the 6th, which still went for Biden 55-44.

Kansas: Laura Kelly, who is the only Democratic governor running for re-election this year in a Trump state, faces a difficult battle against Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Complicating things for Schmidt, though, is the independent candidacy of ultra-conservative state Sen. Dennis Pyle. There have been very few polls here, though the DGA and RGA both spent here until the very end.

The contest for the 3rd District in the Kansas City suburbs, meanwhile, is a rematch between Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and former state GOP chair Amanda Adkins. Davids won their 2020 bout 54-44 as Biden was winning the seat by that same margin, but Republican legislators overrode Kelly’s veto and gerrymandered this seat into one Biden would have taken only 51-47. Limited polling has still had Davids ahead.

Maine: Democratic Gov. Janet Mills faces a high-profile challenge from her far-right predecessor, Paul LePage. While there have been few surveys released here, the ones we’ve seen have shown Mills with a decided advantage.

Over in northern Maine’s 2nd District, which Trump would have taken 52-46, Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is waging an expensive fight against the man he unseated in 2018, Republican Bruce Poliquin. The Pine Tree State uses instant runoff voting for congressional (but not state) elections, and independent Tiffany Bond’s presence on the ballot could keep either Golden or Poliquin from securing an outright majority. Officials say they’ll do any ranked choice tabulations the week after the election.

Maryland: Author and former nonprofit head Wes Moore should have no trouble beating far-right Del. Dan Cox in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Larry Hogan in heavily Democratic Maryland, a win that would make Moore only the third African American elected to lead any state.

There’s more drama in the rematch between 6th District Democratic Rep. David Trone, who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, and Republican state Del. Neil Parrott. Trone beat Parrott 59-39 last cycle as Biden was carrying the old version of the seat by a similar 61-38 spread, but the redrawn incarnation would have favored Biden only 54-44. However, no major outside groups have waded into the race for this district, which includes western Maryland and part of the D.C. area.

Massachusetts: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker’s decision not to seek a third term immediately made Massachusetts one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the country, and polls show Attorney General Maura Healey easily beating her Trumpist foe, former GOP state Rep. Geoff Diehl. Healey would be the first lesbian elected governor anywhere. None of the state's House races appear competitive.

Michigan: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and her allies have massively outspent her hard-right opponent, former conservative talk show host Tudor Dixon, who never quite locked down full-fledged financial backing from her wealthiest benefactors, the DeVos family. Polls have shown Dixon coming closer as Election Day nears, but most surveys still have Whitmer with the advantage in this swing state.

Both parties are also seriously contesting a trio of House races in a state where an independent redistricting commission drew the lines after decades of GOP gerrymanders. The most dramatic change came about in the 3rd District in the Grand Rapids area, which transformed from a 51-47 Trump constituency to one Biden would have carried 53-45. Democrats also got a bigger opening when former Trump administration official John Gibbs (with an assist from the DCCC) denied renomination to freshman Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. The Democrats are once again fielding Hillary Scholten, an attorney who lost a competitive 2020 battle against Meijer.

Over in the revamped 7th District in Lansing, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to fend off hardline state Sen. Tom Barrett in one of the most expensive House races in the nation for a seat that Biden very narrowly took. There’s another major battle next door in the new 8th around Flint and the Tri-Cities areas, where Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is defending a 50-48 Biden constituency. Kildee’s foe is Paul Junge, another Trump alum who lost to Slotkin in 2020 for the old 8th District―a seat that doesn’t overlap at all with this new district.

Two-time Republican Senate nominee John James, though, is in a strong position to flip the 10th in the Detroit suburbs, which is open because Democratic Rep. Andy Levin unsuccessfully ran against fellow incumbent Haley Stevens in the primary for the safer 11th District instead of running here. James narrowly lost this seat in 2020 against Democratic Sen. Gary Peters as Trump was barely winning it, but major Democratic groups haven’t spent money to help former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga. 

Finally, two statewide Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off a team of election deniers. Attorney General Dana Nessel is going up against Matthew DePerno, while Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faces Kristina Karamo.

New Jersey: Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski has a tough task ahead of him in his 7th District rematch against former state Senate Republican leader Tom Kean Jr., the son and namesake of a popular governor from the 1980s. Malinowski only turned back Kean 51-49 in 2020 even as Biden was prevailing 54-44, and the new congressional map slashed Biden’s margin in this North Jersey seat down to 51-47.

Three of Malinowski’s Democratic colleagues got much more favorable seats following redistricting, though a few could still be vulnerable in a sufficiently rough year for Team Blue. Rep. Andy Kim is competing against wealthy yacht manufacturer Bob Healey in South Jersey’s new 3rd District, which transformed from one of the closest seats in the nation into one that would have favored Biden 56-42. National groups have largely bypassed this seat, though a super PAC funded by Healey’s mother has spent millions.

Two North Jersey Democrats, 5th District Rep. Josh Gottheimer and 11th District Rep. Mikie Sherrill, are also favored in seats that Biden would have decisively carried. House Majority PAC and its allies at VoteVets recently began spending against their respective GOP foes, Frank Pallotta and Paul DeGroot, though Politico reported that this involvement came about because former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg wanted to "steer[] money" to both races after making large donations to HMP.

Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt had long looked secure in one of the reddest states in the nation, but he’s been on the receiving end of heavy spending by groups that want him gone. In a shocker, several polls have shown Stitt locked in a close race against state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, who left the GOP last year to challenge him as a Democrat. Stitt’s allies at the RGA are leaving nothing to chance as they got involved late with ads tying Hofmeister to unpopular national Democrats.

Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is home to one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation as Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and former TV personality Mehmet Oz face off to succeed Oz’s fellow Republican, retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. The contest to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is more one-sided, as far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano has run an underfunded and utterly disorganized campaign against Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

Meanwhile, two House Democrats, 7th District Rep. Susan Wild and 8th District Rep. Matt Cartwright, are competing in closely watched rematches against the Republicans they beat in 2020. Last time, Wild turned back Lisa Scheller 52-48 as Biden was winning her seat 52-47, but the new version of this Lehigh Valley district would have favored the president just 50-49. Cartwright also held off Jim Bognet 52-48 as Trump was prevailing 52-47. Redistricting made the new version of this Scranton/Wilkes-Barre seat a little bluer, but it still would have backed Trump 51-48.

Both parties are also heavily engaged to the west in the open 17th District, which Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb gave up to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. Democrats are fielding Iraq War veteran Chris DeIuzio while the GOP is running former Ross Town Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer in a suburban Pittsburgh constituency Biden would have taken 52-47.

Democratic state Rep. Summer Lee is more secure in the open 12th District around the city of Pittsburgh, but the contest for this 59-39 Biden seat attracted attention over the last month. Lee and the DCCC have run ads making it clear that her Republican foe, Plum Borough Councilman Mike Doyle, is not retiring Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle. The hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, which opposed Lee in the primary, also rushed in late with a $1 million general election campaign to sink her.

Rhode Island: Democrat Dan McKee was elevated from the lieutenant governor’s office to the top job last year when Gov. Gina Raimondo joined the Biden cabinet, and he remains the party’s standard-bearer following his tight win in the September primary. McKee’s opponent in this blue state is self-funding Republican Ashley Kalus, who has badly trailed in the few polls we’ve seen.

Things look far closer in the open 2nd District in the western part of the state, where both parties are spending millions in a constituency Biden would have taken 56-42. The Republicans landed a high-profile recruit in former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who lost competitive races to Raimondo in 2014 and 2018, for the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin. State Treasurer Seth Magaziner ended his own primary campaign against McKee to run here, but several fall polls show Fung tied or ahead.

Tennessee: Longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper decided to retire after Republican mapmakers cracked the city of Nashville to transform his 5th District from a 60-37 Biden seat into one Trump would have carried 55-43. Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell is hoping for an upset against Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, but both national parties are spending their money elsewhere.

Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored to claim a third term against Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman who came close to unseating Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 before embarking on a failed presidential run.

Republicans, who gerrymandered the congressional map to safeguard suburban districts that had been moving to the left, are also looking to score a trio of victories in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that lurched hard towards Trump in 2020.

Team Red’s top target is the 15th District around McAllen, a 51-48 Trump constituency that became open when Democratic Rep. Vicente González decided to run in the more favorable 34th after fellow Democrat Filemon Vela announced his retirement. The GOP is fielding 2020 nominee Monica de la Cruz, who came unexpectedly close to beating González, while the Democratic candidate is businesswoman Michelle Vallejo. González isn’t the only Democrat pessimistic here, though, as neither the DCCC nor HMP have answered the millions that the GOP has spent here.

The 28th District in Laredo pits Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Democrat who survived a tight primary challenge in May, against former Ted Cruz aide Cassy Garcia. The race for this 53-46 Biden constituency has attracted heavy spending from both sides, and Republicans have been only too happy to highlight a still-unexplained January FBI raid on Cuellar's home and campaign headquarters.

Finally, the 34th around Brownsville hosts an incumbent vs. incumbent match between González and Mayra Flores, a Republican who won a June special election for the old version of this seat after Vela decided to hasten his planned departure from Congress by resigning early. Flores represents three times as many residents of the new district as González, but this 57-42 Biden constituency is considerably bluer than the version Flores flipped months ago. Outside groups are spending millions for their respective incumbents.

8:30 PM ET

Arkansas: Republicans secured their hold on all four of the state’s House seats by splitting up Little Rock's Black community across multiple districts, and the GOP should have no trouble holding all its statewide offices. That includes the open governorship, which former Trump aide Sarah Huckabee Sanders is poised to win.

9 PM ET

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (rest of state), Louisiana, Michigan (rest of state), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (rest of state), South Dakota (rest of state), Texas (rest of state), Wisconsin, Wyoming

Arizona: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is going up against Blake Masters, a protege of conservative mega donor Peter Thiel, in his quest for a full six-year term. Prominent Republican super PACs axed millions in planned spending in September as surveys showed Masters in bad shape, but other organizations have filled in the void as Master’s prospects have improved.

Republicans have also nominated ardent election deniers for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state, which are the three offices involved in certifying results in the Grand Canyon State. The battle to succeed termed-out Gov. Doug Ducey is a duel between his fellow Republican, former local TV anchor Kari Lake, and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and most recent surveys give Lake a small edge.

The race to replace Hobbs, meanwhile, pits GOP state Rep. Mark Finchem against Democrat Adrian Fontes, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as Maricopa County recorder. Finally, the contest to succeed termed-out Attorney General Mark Brnovich pits yet another Big Lie advocate, Republican prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh, against former Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes.

Three House members also face competitive races after the Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission overhauled their districts. The most vulnerable is moderate Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran, who is trying to fend off Navy SEAL veteran Eli Crane in the sprawling 2nd District in the northeastern part of the state. While O'Halleran looked like a goner after he wound up in a seat that would have backed Trump 53-45, both parties’ decision to spend here in the final weeks indicates that he still has a chance.

Another late-breaking race is in the 1st District in the Phoenix suburbs, which narrowly voted for Biden. Republican Rep. David Schweikert spent most of the cycle as the decisive favorite against Democrat Jevin Hodge, who would be Arizona’s first Black member of Congress. HMP, though, rushed in with an ad campaign in the final weeks hitting the congressman over the ethics violations that overshadowed Schweikert in 2020, and his allies at CLF have responded with ads of their own.

Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton is also defending the 4th District, another Phoenix area seat that supported Biden 54-44, against restaurant owner Kelly Cooper. CLF, though, unsuccessfully tried to stop Cooper from getting nominated, and it never responded to Democratic spending highlighting his ties to extremists.

The situation is the reverse in the Tucson-based 6th District, where Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick isn’t seeking re-election in a seat that would have voted for Biden by the narrowest of margins. CLF got the nominee it wanted, former Ducey aide Juan Ciscomani, while Democratic groups have triaged former state Sen. Kirsten Engel.

Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet faces a strong challenge from Republican self-funder Joe O'Dea, but most recent polls show the incumbent establishing a firm lead in what’s become a Democratic-friendly state. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis is in even better shape against University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, who is the GOP’s only statewide elected official.

Things are more dicey in the 8th District, a brand-new seat in the northern Denver suburbs created thanks to reapportionment that would have backed Biden 51-46. Both parties have devoted millions to the battle between Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo and Republican state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, but even a mid-October Caraveo internal showed her narrowly trailing. National Democrats have also spent some money to support state Sen. Brittany Pettersen in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter in the neighboring 7th, but this is much friendlier turf at 56-42 Biden.

Iowa: Seven-term Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley faces the most competitive re-election fight of his career, but retired Navy Adm. Mike Franken is still the underdog in what’s become a very tough state for Democrats. A mid-October poll from Iowa’s most prominent pollster, Ann Selzer, showed Grassley only narrowly ahead, but both parties have continued to direct their resources elsewhere. (Selzer’s survey released Saturday showed Grassley ahead by a wider 53-41.)

The most prominent House race in the state pits 3rd District Rep. Cindy Axne, who is the only Democrat in the Hawkeye State’s delegation, against Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn for a southwestern Iowa seat that Trump very narrowly won. Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson also face credible challenges from their respective Democratic foes, state Rep. Christina Bohannan and state Sen. Liz Mathis. However, all the major outside spending in both races has been on the GOP side.

Louisiana: There’s no question that Republicans, who passed a new gerrymander over Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ veto, will keep their firm hold over 5 of the state’s 6 congressional delegations, but GOP Rep. Clay Higgins does face a credible intra-party foe in the all-party primary for the 3rd District.

Attorney Holden Hoggatt is arguing that Higgins has done a poor job securing federal aid for his hurricane-ravaged constituents in the southwestern corner of the state, and he’s also highlighting allegations that Higgins threatened his first wife with a gun. The congressman, who has been a reliable spreader of conspiracy theories, has Trump’s backing, while Hoggatt has some prominent former local politicians from both parties in his corner. Six other candidates are on the ballot, and a Dec. 10 runoff would take place if no one earns a majority.

Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is going up against Republican Scott Jensen, a former state senator who has circulated a litany of COVID conspiracy theories. Most polls have shown the far-better funded Walz ahead, though this is another race where reliable numbers are scarce, and Republicans showed up with a burst of very late outside spending.

The 2nd District in the Twin Cities suburbs, meanwhile, is an expensive second bout between Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and Marine veteran Tyler Kistner. Craig won 48-46 as Biden was carrying her seat by a 7-point margin, and court-supervised redistricting barely made any changes here.

The 1st District to the south also is a rematch between Republican Rep. Brad Finstad and the Democrat he beat in an August special election, former Hormel CEO Jeff Ettinger. Finstad turned back Ettinger just 51-47 in a constituency Trump took 54-44, but both parties are behaving like Finstad is on track for an easy win.

Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon is also trying to fend off election denier Kim Crockett in a contest that national Democrats are heavily involved in as Republicans have largely sat on the sidelines. Each side, though, is spending big in the race between Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison and Jim Schultz, who is the rare Republican attorney general candidate who acknowledges Biden won in 2020.

Nebraska: The biggest race in the state is the contest for the 2nd District in the Omaha area, which would have supported Biden 52-46. Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who claimed victory two years ago in a similar constituency, this time is going up against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who would be Nebraska’s first Latino member.

The neighboring 1st District around Lincoln is a return engagement between Republican Rep. Mike Flood and the Democrat he turned back in a June special, state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks. Flood only held on 53-47 in a 54-43 Trump seat, but just like in Minnesota’s 1st, both parties aren't expecting a repeat performance.

New Mexico: Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is going up against former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, a Republican who held her distant relative, Ben Ray Lujan, to an unexpectedly small 52-46 win in the 2020 Senate race. Recent surveys from reliable firms have given the governor a mid-single-digit lead.

Democratic mapmakers sought to defeat far-right Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by transforming her southern New Mexico constituency from a 55-43 Trump seat to one that Biden would have carried 52-46. That's resulted in a very competitive race with her Democratic opponent, Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez. HMP also launched a small buy in the final week to safeguard Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez in a 54-44 Biden seat in the northern part of the state.

New York: Democrat Kathy Hochul assumed the governorship last summer after scandal-ridden incumbent Andrew Cuomo resigned, and she faces an unexpectedly tough battle to keep her new job against GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. Almost every reliable poll shows Hochul with the lead in a place where Republicans haven’t prevailed statewide since 2002, though some surveys have things close.

Democrats also are facing some difficult contests for the House in part because New York’s highest court threw out the map Team Blue passed. We’ll begin on Long Island, where each party launched an expensive ad campaign in the final week in the open 4th District. Biden would have won 57-42 here, but Democrats took huge losses in this area in last year’s local elections. They're running former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen to succeed her political ally, retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice, while the GOP nominee is Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito.

HMP has also devoted millions to safeguard the neighboring 3rd, a 54-45 Biden seat that Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi gave up to wage a failed primary bid against Hochul, but the GOP never responded in kind. The contest between DNC member Robert Zimmerman and 2020 GOP nominee George Santos already has made history, though, as the first congressional race between two gay major-party nominees.

The race to succeed Zeldin on eastern Long Island’s 1st District, meanwhile, pits Democratic Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming against longtime local GOP politico Nick LaLota. Biden would have narrowly carried this seat, but outside groups have bypassed it. The 2nd, by contrast, is a rematch between freshman Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino and 2020 opponent Jackie Gordon. However, while their last bout attracted huge amounts of spending, there’s been less energy this time for this 50-49 Trump seat.

Another 2020 rematch is taking place on Staten Island’s 11th District between Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and Max Rose, the moderate Democrat she unseated 53-47. Rose hoped to be running in a much friendlier seat this time, but the new map only reduced Trump’s margin from 55-44 to 53-46. Both contenders are strong fundraisers, but national groups have also skipped this one.

Where they are getting involved, though, is in a trio of constituencies in and around the Hudson Valley north of New York City. Republicans badly want to deny re-election to DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th District, which would have favored Biden 55-44. Democratic groups in turn came in during the final weeks to help Maloney fend off Assemblyman Mike Lawler.

The 18th District next door is being defended by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, who won an August special in the old 19th District in a massive upset. The 18th, at 53-45, is considerably more Democratic than the seat Ryan represents now, but no one thinks re-election is a sure thing against GOP Assemblyman Colin Schmitt.

The open Democratic-held 19th features a battle between Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, the Republican Ryan beat over the summer, and attorney Josh Riley. None of Molinaro’s home county is included in this new 51-47 Biden seat, though his failed campaign and 2018 run against Cuomo make him a familiar name.

There’s another pricey fight over in the Syracuse-based 22nd District, a 53-45 Biden seat where GOP Rep. John Katko is not seeking re-election. National Republicans tried to sink businessman Brandon Williams in the primary, but they’re nonetheless very much in his corner against Navy veteran Francis Conole.

Finally, there’s a late-developing race in Rochester’s 25th District. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle long looked safe in this 59-39 Biden seat against La'Ron Singletary, a former police chief who resigned in 2020 after he tried to conceal video footage of police suffocating a Black man to death after officers placed a hood over his face and held him to the ground, but Democrats launched a small buy in the final days.

Wisconsin: The Badger State is home to two of the most competitive races in the whole country as Republican Sen. Ron Johnson tries to hold off Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as Democratic Gov. Tony Evers goes up against self-funder Tim Michels. There’s also an important race for attorney general as Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul faces Republican ​​Eric Toney, a Fond du Lac County district attorney who has bragged, “I am prosecuting more election fraud than anyone else in Wisconsin.”

The only House race in the state that’s at all interesting is the 3rd District in southwestern Wisconsin, where longtime Democratic Rep. Ron Kind is retiring. National Democrats, though, have redirected resources from this 51-47 Trump seat, where Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff is trying to hold on against 2020 GOP nominee Derrick Van Orden.

10 PM ET

Idaho (Mountain Time Zone), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (Mountain Time Zone), Utah

Montana: The 2020 census gave Big Sky Country a second House seat for the first time in three decades, and Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale’s decision to run in the safely red 2nd in western Montana means there’s an open-seat race for the brand-new 1st to the east. The contest for this 52-45 Trump district pits a Rosendale predecessor, Republican Ryan Zinke, against Democratic attorney Monica Tranel, who has emphasized the many scandals that dogged Zinke during his time as Trump’s first secretary of the interior.

Nevada: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is trying to turn back former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt in one of the top Senate races in the nation. Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, who beat Laxalt in 2018, is involved in a tough battle of his own against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

Last year, Democrats made the risky decision to make Rep. Dina Titus’ once-safe 1st District competitive in order to help two fellow Democrats also in the Las Vegas area, 3rd District Rep. Susie Lee and 4th District incumbent Steven Horsford. Now all three face serious fights in seats that Biden would have carried from 7 to 9 points.

Titus is going up against Army veteran Mark Robertson in her first competitive general election in a decade, while Lee is slugging it out against attorney April Becker. Horsford’s race against Air Force veteran Sam Peters hasn’t attracted spending from national GOP groups, though super PACs funded by local millionaire Robert Bigelow have dumped millions here.

Team Blue is also spending big in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, where Democrat Cisco Aguilar is hoping to beat Jim Marchant, one of the most prominent election deniers in the country. The race for attorney general pits Democratic incumbent Aaron Ford against another Republican conspiracy theorist, Sigal Chattah.

Utah: Hard-right Sen. Mike Lee faces an unexpectedly tough battle in this dark-red state from independent Evan McMullin, who took a strong third in Utah as an anti-Trump conservative in the 2016 presidential election. Democrats opted to endorse McMullin, who says he won’t caucus with either party in the Senate, rather than run their own candidate, but he still faces an uphill climb.

11 PM ET

California, Oregon (rest of state), Washington

California: The Golden State’s independent redistricting commission once again scrambled California’s congressional map, and there are a wealth of high-profile House races here.

We’ll start with three districts in the sprawling Central Valley that Biden took with 55% of the vote but where Democrats often struggle with midterm turnout. Both parties have delivered millions to the battle in the 13th District between Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray and agribusinessman John Duarte. An even more expensive battle is unfolding to the south in the 22nd between Republican Rep. David Valadao, who voted for impeachment and may be the most vulnerable GOP House incumbent in the country, and Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas.

Outside groups, meanwhile, have bypassed the 9th District, where Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is seeking re-election in a seat that’s largely new to him, but he still faces a notable opponent in San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti. There's a fourth district in the area as well that bears eyeing, though this time, at least, no one is acting like Democratic Rep. Jim Costa is in trouble against little known foe Michael Maher in the 21st, which would have favored Biden 59-39. However, Costa came shockingly close to losing in 2014 in another seemingly dry contest.

We’ll venture next to the 47th District in the longtime GOP stronghold of Orange County, where Republicans have made it a top priority to defeat prominent progressive Rep. Katie Porter. Porter, who is one of the top fundraisers in the entire chamber, is defending a constituency that would have backed Biden 55-43, but the GOP is hoping that the suburban voters who revolted against Trump will return to the fold with former county party chair Scott Baugh.

GOP Rep. Michelle Steel faces a well-funded campaign next door in the new 45th from community college trustee Jay Chen, but national Republicans are the only ones dumping money into this 52-46 Biden seat. Another Orange County Republican congresswoman, Young Kim, is going up against physician Asif Mahmood in the new 40th, which Biden would have won just 50-48 and where there’s been considerably less outside spending.

Over in the 49th north of San Diego, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin faces a tough rematch against San Juan Capistrano Councilman Brian Maryott in a seat that barely changed in redistricting. Levin turned back Maryott 53-47 as Biden was prevailing 55-43, and both parties are treating this as a major priority.

The situation is a bit different in the 27th District north of Los Angeles, where Democrat Christy Smith is trying to avenge her 333-vote defeat to Republican Rep. Mike Garcia. This new constituency, which Biden would have won 55-43, is a couple points to the left of Garcia’s old seat, but Democratic groups haven’t been spending here.

A few other seats are also on the radar. Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley long looked safe in the 26th, a suburban L.A. constituency where Biden scored 59%, but her allies at EMILY’s List came in late to help her against Republican Matt Jacobs.

On the other side, veteran Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, who has represented a safely red seat for a decade, now faces a spirited challenge from former federal prosecutor Will Rollins in the 41st in Riverside County, but neither party has prioritized this 50-49 Trump seat. Democratic physician Kermit Jones has also attracted attention in his bid against Republican Assemblyman Kevin Kiley in the sprawling 3rd District in northern California, but this 50-48 Trump constituency may be too much of a lift this year.

Finally, there are a few safely blue seats that saw a pair of Democrats advance out of June's top-two primary. Up in the Bay Area, Assemblyman Kevin Mullin has endorsements from both retiring Rep. Jackie Speier and Speaker Nancy Pelosi against San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa. Back down in L.A., Rep. Jimmy Gomez is trying to avoid a repeat of his unexpectedly close 53-47 win against 2020 rival David Kim. Finally in the neighboring 37th, state Sen. Sydney Kamlager has the backing of incumbent Karen Bass, who is running for mayor, against former City Councilwoman Jan Perry.

Oregon: Democrats have held the governorship since 1987, but the GOP is hoping that frustration with termed-out Democratic Gov. Kate Brown will propel former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan to victory over Democrat Tina Kotek, the former speaker who would join Healey as America’s first lesbian governor. Further complicating things is the independent candidacy of former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a longtime conservative Democrat who appears to be harming Kotek more than Drazan.

Democrats also face tough battles in a trio of House seats that Biden carried. The biggest source of concern is in the 5th District in central Oregon, where former city manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner toppled conservative Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary and is now up against former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Biden would have won 53-44 here, but Team Blue has redirected resources away from this contest as the GOP has continued to throw in money.

Over in the 4th along the state’s southern coast, Democratic Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle is campaigning against 2020 Republican nominee Alek Skarlatos. Skarlatos held retiring Rep. Peter DeFazio to a 52-46 win last time, but Democratic mapmakers extended Biden’s margin from 51-47 all the way to 55-42. Finally in the 6th, a brand-new seat Salem created by reapportionment that would have also backed Biden 55-42, there’s another closely watched fight between Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas and businessman Mike Erickson.

Washington: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray faces an unexpectedly tough contest against Republican Tiffany Smiley in this blue state, though even surveys from GOP pollsters still largely give the incumbent the edge. The biggest national groups on both sides, though, have not been involved.

Further down the ticket, Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is locked in a costly battle against Republican Matt Larkin in the 8th District, a suburban Seattle constituency Biden would have won 52-45. National Democrats also have made a late offensive in 3rd to support Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against far-right Republican Joe Kent, who toppled incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary; Trump would have won this southwestern Washington seat 51-47.

12 AM ET

Alaska (Alaska Time Zone), Hawaii

Alaska: The Last Frontier will conduct its general elections through instant-runoff voting, though these tabulations won’t take place until Nov. 23.

The Senate battle is a closely-watched intra-GOP showdown between incumbent Lisa Murkowski, who has the support of the Senate leadership, and Trump’s candidate, former state cabinet official Kelly Tshibaka. Major GOP super PACs have spent heavily to help Murkowski, though her detractors are hoping enough conservatives will follow Trump’s lead in a state he took 53-43. Democrat Pat Chesbro and Buzz Kelley, a Republican who dropped out and endorsed Tshibaka in September, are also on the ballot.

The race for governor pits hardline Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy against both his independent predecessor, Bill Walker, and former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara. Another Republican, former Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce, is also in, but his campaign was barely a factor even before harassment allegations against him became public. Both Walker and Gara have urged their supporters to rank the other one second in order to beat Dunleavy.

Finally, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is trying to keep the House seat she won in an August special election against Sarah Palin. Both Palin and another Republican, Nick Begich III, are competing again, along with Libertarian Chris Bye, but Murkowski and several other notable Republicans are supporting Peltola. GOP outside groups have also bypassed this contest despite Alaska's decided red lean.

1 AM ET

Alaska (rest of state)

Morning Digest: Oregon Republicans threatens suit to overturn election results because of attack ad

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Click here to subscribe.

Leading Off

OR-06: Here's something you don't see often—or ever: Republican Mike Erickson released an internal poll showing him leading his Democratic opponent, Andrea Salinas, the very same day that he filed a lawsuit demanding Salinas take down an attack ad by citing a law that he recently threatened to use to overturn the election should he lose.

To pick apart this strange turn of events, we'll start with Erickson's survey from Cygnal, which shows him beating Salinas 44-39 in Oregon's brand new 6th District, a seat Joe Biden would have taken 55-42. The last polls we saw out of this district, which is based in the Salem area and Portland's southwestern suburbs, were both from mid-August: The GOP firm Clout Research gave Erickson an even larger 43-34 advantage, while a GBAO internal for Salinas had her up 48-45.

Despite these optimistic numbers for Republicans, however, both the Congressional Leadership Fund and the NRCC have so far avoided spending here, even though their opponents at the DCCC and House Majority PAC have together dropped over $1.4 million. Given the district's lean, it's exceedingly unlikely that the GOP's two biggest House groups have steered clear of this race because they feel supremely confident, especially since a conservative organization called Take Back Oregon PAC just launched a $300,000 TV buy this week.

Salinas' side has run several commercials focusing both on allegations that Erickson paid for a girlfriend to have an abortion in 2000—years before Herschel Walker did the same—as well as stories around his 2016 arrest. The latter is the focus of his new lawsuit and a cease and desist notice he recently sent to Salinas. In that letter, Erickson threatened to invoke a state law that the Oregon Capitol Chronicle writes "prohibits knowingly making false statements about a candidate, political committee or ballot measure."

Reporter Julia Shumway explains, "If a judge determines that a candidate made a false statement that cost their opponent an election, the law states that the candidate will be removed as a nominee or elected official." But she adds, "Over several decades, Oregon courts have interpreted that law to exclude opinions or statements that could reasonably be interpreted as true." It's also not clear whether this law has ever been successfully employed to reverse the results of an election, and Erickson's attorney, Jill Gibson, cited no such examples in her letter.

In his newly filed lawsuit, Erickson didn't actually present any demands regarding overturning the upcoming election but instead asked a state court to order Salinas to stop airing the ads in question and "to retract the false statements by airing correction advertisements with the same frequency and broadcast location as the false advertisements." He is also seeking $800,000 in monetary damages, which he claims would cover the cost of "commercials to correct the false statements."

The complaint insists that Salinas' ads are "false" because Erickson "has never been charged with illegal possession of drug." To that end, Gibson's letter cited a recent story from The Oregonian in which Hood River County District Attorney Carrie Rasmussen said that the court documents that those allegations came from were incorrect.

Instead, Erickson's attorney from that case, Tara Lawrence, insisted that she'd made a "mistake" by filing a plea agreement stating that the Rasmussen's office had "agreed to dismiss felony possession of controlled substance upon tender of guilty plea." An attorney for Salinas, however, cited that very statement in support of the ad's truthfulness in a letter and argued that "a charge is a charge, whether or not the DA files it."

Before Erickson filed his lawsuit, Salinas' campaign shrugged off his threats, saying in a statement, "Mike Erickson's threats to overturn the election if he doesn't win should raise major concerns for Oregonians who cherish democracy."

The Downballot

After an eruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.

Co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss Dr. Oz, puppy killer; the GOP's hypocrisy regarding Herschel Walker's ever-growing list of scandals; Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s desperate attempts to avoid testifying in an abortion case; and Brazil's presidential runoff, where former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva remains the favorite despite far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro's better-than-expected first-round showing.

Please subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also find a transcript for this week's episode right here.

3Q Fundraising

  • CO-Sen: Joe O'Dea (R): $2 million raised, additional $1 million self-funded
  • GA-Sen: Herschel Walker (R): $12 million raised, $7 million cash-on-hand
  • OH-Sen: Tim Ryan (D): $17.2 million raised
  • PA-Sen: John Fetterman (D): $22 million raised
  • WI-Sen: Mandela Barnes (D): $20 million raised
  • GA-Gov: Brian Kemp (R-inc): $29 million raised, $15.4 million cash-on-hand
  • OH-Gov: Mike DeWine (R-inc): $1.5 million raised (in September), $12.5 cash-on-hand; Nan Whaley (D): $1.2 million raised (in September), $3.9 million cash-on-hand
  • CA-22: Rudy Salas (D): $1.2 million raised
  • CO-08: Yadira Caraveo (D): $1.5 million raised, $550,000 cash-on-hand
  • FL-15: Alan Cohn (D): $400,000 raised
  • IA-02: Ashley Hinson (R-inc): $1.25 million raised, $1.7 million cash-on-hand
  • IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D): $1.5 million raised
  • MT-01: Monica Tranel (D): $1.1 million raised
  • NH-02: Annie Kuster (D-inc): $1 million raised, $2.6 million cash-on-hand
  • NM-02: Gabe Vasquez (D): $1.55 million raised
  • NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc): $2.25 million raised, $600,000 cash-on-hand; Colin Schmitt (R): $500,000 raised, $500,000 cash-on-hand
  • PA-17: Chris Deluzio (D): $1.4 million raised
  • VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R): $1 million raised
  • VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (D-inc): $2.2 million raised

Senate

CO-Sen: Ron Hanks, a far-right state representative who lost the June Republican primary to Joe O'Dea 54-46, announced this week that he was endorsing Libertarian Brian Peotter as "the only conservative on the ballot." Hanks made it clear exactly what he thought of his former intra-party rival in his statement, declaring, "There is only a fake Republican, a pay-to-play opportunist with no conservative values or agenda. He merits no support, and he's not likely to get much." Hanks added, "Let the COGOP know we will have a party with conservative principles, not squishy candidates with a power fetish."

GA-Sen: While Republican Herschel Walker has spent days insisting that he did he not pay for his then-girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009 and that he also doesn't know who his accuser could be, the Daily Beast reported Wednesday night that the woman in question had a child with Walker a few years after her abortion. The woman, whose identity the publication has withheld, said of Walker's denials, "Sure, I was stunned, but I guess it also doesn't shock me, that maybe there are just so many of us that he truly doesn't remember." She continued, "But then again, if he really forgot about it, that says something, too."

The next day, Walker held a press conference where he again denied that he even knew who this woman was. However, the Daily Beast further reported that back in June, when the site first broke the news that Walker was father to three previously undisclosed children, the candidate himself had confirmed she was the mother of one of them.

Just before these latest developments, Walker released an ad against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock that played footage of a Democratic commercial focused on reports that the Republican had threatened to kill his ex-wife. "As everyone knows, I had a real battle with mental health—even wrote a book about it," Walker declared. CNN's Andrew Kaczynski quickly noted that this spot, which was aired "presumably in response to Daily Beast story," mentioned Walker's 2008 memoir, which was published the year before the candidate allegedly paid for the abortion.

NC-Sen: NBC reports that Senate Majority PAC has booked an additional $4 million to help Democrat Cheri Beasley, a move that will bring its total spending here to $10.5 million. The reservation comes at a time when Republican outside groups have been deploying considerably more money here than Democrats: While Politico reported Tuesday that Beasley has outspent Republican Ted Budd by $9 million in advertising, data from OpenSecrets shows that Budd's super PAC allies have outpaced Beasley’s supporters $34.9 million to $7.8 million.

NE-Sen: Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse announced on Thursday that he would resign to become president of the University of Florida, which has named the Republican as the sole finalist for the post. Multiple media outlets report that Sasse's departure will occur before the end of the year, which would allow Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts, who will leave office in early 2023, to appoint a successor. The Nebraska Examiner says that a special election would take place for the final two years of Sasse's term in 2024, when fellow GOP Sen. Deb Fischer will also be up.

Sasse held the post of president of Midland University in Nebraska when he entered the 2014 primary to succeed Sen. Mike Johanns, a fellow Republican who unexpectedly decided to retire after one term. Sasse had the backing of the deep-pocketed Club for Growth but still looked like the underdog for most of his campaign against former state Treasurer Shane Osborn, a retired Navy pilot who was detained by China in 2001 after his plane collided with a Chinese fighter.

Osborn's bid, however, began to fall apart weeks before the primary after the media reported that he'd distributed a bogus Navy memo to defend his decision to land in China. Sasse soon pulled ahead in the polls, while his allies took action late in the campaign to stop a third contender, wealthy banking executive Sid Dinsdale, from sneaking through. Ultimately, Sasse beat Dinsdale by a convincing 49-22 margin, and he easily won the general election in this red state.

The new senator became a media favorite in D.C., especially after he emerged as a loud Donald Trump critic during the 2016 campaign, saying at one point that "if the Republican Party becomes the party of David Duke, Donald Trump, I'm out." Sasse, though, was anything but out after Trump took the White House, and while he still vocally trashed him at times, the senator nevertheless loyally voted the administration's way.

There was talk in 2020 that Sasse could be on the receiving end of a Trump-inspired primary challenge, but no one serious emerged even before Trump himself endorsed the incumbent. Sasse had no trouble winning a second term, though he went on to become one of seven Senate Republicans to vote to convict Trump the next year following his second impeachment. The Nebraskan, though, still voted the party line on all other major issues.

UT-Sen: Put Utah First, a group funded by Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, has dropped another $900,000 to aid conservative independent Evan McMullin, which takes its total investment here to $2.65 million.

Polls:

  • AZ-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 51, Blake Masters (R): 45
  • IA-Sen: Cygnal (R) for Iowans for Tax Relief: Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 54, Mike Franken (D): 40 (July: 52-43 Grassley)
  • NV-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Adam Laxalt (R): 48, Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 46

Governors

OR-Gov: Republican Christine Drazan has debuted a commercial accusing Democrat Tina Kotek of blocking an investigation into sexual abuse allegations, but The Oregonian's Jamie Goldberg writes, "Even by the traditionally loosened standards for political ads, that assertion is untrue, according to independent investigations and news reports."

Drazan's commercial declares that as speaker of the state House, Kotek "blocked an investigation into repeated sexual abuse because she was worried about how it would make her look." The complaints in question were about Republican Jeff Kruse—a member of the state Senate, not the state House. Unsurpirsingly, the speaker noted after the allegations became public that she had no influence over members of the upper chamber and said she did not have knowledge of the complaints against Kruse.

Goldberg writes, "No subsequent news reporting has showed Kotek covered up sexual abuse, although she did provide privacy to some victims who spoke up after 2018 to allege harassment by House members." The speaker was one of several lawmakers who initially refused to comply when the state Labor Bureau issued subpoenas after legislative attorneys argued the requests documents could reveal the identity of Kruse's accusers, but Goldberg says that a court order ultimately led Kotek and others to comply.

Polls:

  • AZ-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Katie Hobbs (D): 49, Kari Lake (R): 46
  • IA-Gov: Cygnal (R) for Iowans for Tax Relief: Kim Reynolds (R-inc): 59, Deidre DeJear (D): 38 (July: 56-41 Reynolds)
  • MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Tim Walz (D-inc): 50, Scott Jensen (R): 40 (Sept.: 51-33 Walz)
  • NV-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Joe Lombardo (R): 48, Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 46

House

FL-13: Progress Pinellas has dropped another $2.2 million to support Democrat Eric Lynn, which takes its total investment here to $6.7 million. The Tampa Bay Times reported in April that the group is funded by hedge fund manager Justin Ishbia, a Lynn cousin who usually contributes to Republicans.

MI-07: The Congressional Leadership Fund is running a new ad attacking Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin over recent reports that she’s been leasing a condo from a donor named Jerry Hollister, who serves as director of government relations for a medical manufacturing company called Niowave. CLF cites a Detroit News story noting that Slotkin had signed a 2020 letter supporting a Department of Energy program that awarded a total of $28 million to Niowave in 2019 and 2021, which the narrator suggests is "shady."

Slotkin's campaign responded to the initial stories by noting that she never mentioned Niowave in that missive, and that the Republican she defeated in 2018, Rep. Mike Bishop, had previously signed a similar letter. Her team declared the congresswoman had "never done anything in Congress that inappropriately benefits his company" and that she was "paying market rate rent to a landlord, just like thousands of mid-Michiganders."

MN-02: The Minnesota Reformer's Deena Winter reported Wednesday that, while Republican Tyler Kistner spent his unsuccessful 2020 campaign suggesting that he'd been in combat, Marine records show that was never the case. Winter notes that Kistner, who is again the GOP nominee, would have received a combat action ribbon had he seen battle, which he's acknowledged he doesn't have.

Two years ago, Kistner was facing off against several fellow Republicans, including Air Force veteran Erika Cashin, ahead of the GOP party convention, where Minnesota nominations are often decided. Kistner said at the time he couldn't turn over documents about his service, but he declared in the lead up to the gathering that he'd put the enemy "six feet under" and had "been on the wrong end of a loaded weapon." The candidate also referenced the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and said, "I've been in such conflicts."

Cashin said in response at the time, "Tyler Kistner has said he is 'the most decorated military member in this race,' and has made multiple statements needing clarification." She also challenged him to release his records, arguing, "Tyler can put these questions to rest by simply releasing his DD 214 and proving what he has said is true." Kistner, though, won the party endorsement without publicizing those documents, and Cashin and his other foes dropped out afterwards rather than go on to the primary. Kistner ultimately lost the general election to Democratic Rep. Angie Craig 48-46.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is backing Kistner's second bid to unseat Craig, had been airing an ad saying he'd been in "four combat deployments." The progressive group VoteVets, though, asked stations to take down these spots because Kistner had actually served in Japan and Korea, which are not combat zones. CLF, for its part, claims it distributed an "incorrect version of the ad and fixed it ourselves on the same day."

A Kistner consultant named Billy Grant insisted his client had never lied during the 2020 race. Grant told Winter that the "six feet under" line referred to an operation where a "partner force effectively killed more than eight violent extremist organizations in the North African region," where Kistner helped coordinate the evacuation of seven injured soldiers. Grant also argues that Kistner had been telling the truth about being on the "wrong end of a loaded weapon" because he'd gotten into an argument with an allied commander who had pulled a gun on him before the matter was resolved.

NY-11, NY-19: Siena College is out with a pair of surveys for Spectrum News giving each party the lead in a New York House contest.

Over in the 11th District, which includes all of Staten Island and a portion of Brooklyn, freshman Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis enjoys a 49-43 edge in her rematch against Democrat Max Rose. The sample also finds Republican Lee Zeldin with a small 46-42 advantage against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in a constituency Trump would have taken 53-46.

In the Hudson Valley-based 19th, meanwhile, Siena has Democrat Josh Riley beating Republican Marc Molinaro 46-41. The school also finds Zeldin ahead 46-45 in this swingy turf, which would have backed Biden 51-47.

Attorneys General & Secretaries of State

AZ-SoS, NV-SoS: SSRS, polling for CNN, finds election deniers with small leads in a pair of secretary of state races taking place in crucial swing states. Mark Finchem posts a 49-45 edge over Democrat Adrian Fontes in Arizona, while fellow Republican Jim Marchant enjoys a similar 46-43 edge against Cisco Aguilar in Nevada. Last week, the progressive group End Citizens United released internals from GSG showing Fontes ahead 46-44. Fontes is also getting some new outside support, as CNN reports that the Democratic organization iVote will spend $5 million to aid him.

IA-AG: The Republican firm Cygnal's new survey for the conservative Iowans for Tax Relief shows Republican Brenna Bird outpacing longtime Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller 46-43. Back in July, Cygnal found Miller, who is seeking a historic 11th term, ahead by a narrow 45-44 margin.

IN-SoS: IndyPolitics.com recently published a story in which two women charged that Diego Morales, who is the Republican nominee for secretary of state, sexually harassed and groped them. One said the incident took place in 2007, while the other said her encounter with Morales took place a few years later. Morales soon put out a statement saying, "The claims being made against me are false and I unequivocally deny all of them." He faces Democrat Destiny Wells in November.

Ad Roundup

Morning Digest: Senate GOP has a big ad spending edge, but Democrats get more ‘bang for their buck’

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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Leading Off

Senate: NBC reports that Republicans have outspent Democrats $106 million to $93 million over the last three weeks across the nine Senate battlegrounds, but, because so many GOP candidates are relying on super PACs to make up for their underwhelming fundraising, they aren't getting as much "bang for their buck" as their rivals. That's because, as we've written before, FCC regulations give candidates—but not outside groups—discounted rates on TV and radio.

Perhaps no race better demonstrates this in action than the Arizona Senate race. The GOP firm OH Predictive Insights relays that during the week of Sept. 19, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and his allies outspent Republican Blake Masters' side 52-48 in advertising. Anyone just looking at raw dollar amounts would conclude that the two parties aired about the same number of ads during this period, but that's not the case at all. In reality, Kelly's side had a 4-1 advantage in ​​gross ratings points, which measure how many times, on average, members of an ad's target audience have seen it.

Republicans can blame Masters, whom NBC says has spent all of $9,000 on ads during most of September, for much of the imbalance. The Senate Leadership Fund last week canceled all its planned ad time in Arizona while arguing that other super PACs would step in, and this data shows why Masters badly needs this prediction to finally come true.

Outside groups, though, can still air more ads than well-funded candidates if they're willing and able to spend massive amounts the way the GOP is in Ohio. Cleveland.com's Andrew Tobias reports that Republicans are airing 20% more commercials than their Democratic foes in the Buckeye State after spending or reserving almost three times as much. Democrat Tim Ryan, writes Tobias, is responsible for 83% of the ads coming from his side compared to just 8% for Vance, but the Senate Leadership Fund has committed $28 million here to bail out its underwhelming nominee.

Senate

NC-Sen: Both Democrat Cheri Beasley and her allies at Senate Majority PAC are airing new commercials charging that when Republican Ted Budd's farm company, AgriBioTech, went bankrupt in 2000, it chose to repay itself rather than pay back the small farmers and creditors it owed millions to. "The Budds took $10 million and left over 1,000 farmers holding the bag," Beasley's narrator argues, while SMP declares, "One grower said, 'we were the little guy,' 'we got screwed.'"

The story was first reported last year by the Washington Post's Michael Kranish, who wrote that "a trustee for farmers and other creditors alleged that his [Budd's] father, Richard Budd, improperly transferred millions of dollars in assets to his family, including Ted Budd." The candidate was not an official at ABT, though the story identifies him as a "significant shareholder." The trustee, which named him as a defendant in their civil case, also accused Budd of having "acted in concert" with his father "in connection with the fraudulent transfers."

The matter was ultimately settled in 2005, with Kranish saying that the "Budd entities" agreed to pay "less than half of the amount initially earmarked for the farmers and other creditors" without admitting to any wrongdoing. The settlement left some bad feelings, though, with one Wyoming farmer telling the Post, "We got screwed and there was not a freaking thing we could do about it. There was no way to fight multimillionaires."

Richard Budd, who became chief executive of ABT after it bought his family's seed company, defended the candidate to Kranish, arguing, "Your attempts to tie my son to this business are dishonest and offensive. I wish my personal efforts to save ABT had been successful, but they were not." Ted Budd's campaign also denied any wrongdoing, saying the trustee's claims were "untrue allegations that are typical in that sort of litigation."

Budd and his allies at the Senate Leadership Fund, meanwhile, are each running commercials arguing that Beasley wants 87,000 more IRS agents, which continues to be a popular line of attack in GOP ads across the country. As we've written before, the agency reportedly will use the funds provided by the Inflation Reduction Act to replace many of the nearly 50,000 of its employees who could retire over the next five years. Many of the thousands of newly created IRS jobs beyond those positions would be in customer service and information technology.

And while the SLF has run ad after ad accusing Democrats of hating the police, its own commercial features menacing footage of what NBC says is "police raids and special agents at a gun range." Those videos accompany the narrator's prediction that "Beasley's gonna knock on your door with an army of new IRS agents" and that she "backs the liberal scheme to spend billions auditing the middle class, sending the IRS beast to collect her taxes on working families."

However, even Trump-appointed IRS Director Charles Rettig has stated that the agency would not crack down on those making less than $400,000, explaining that the beefed up enforcement of tax evasion would only target corporations and the richest 1-2% of households.

PA-Sen: John Fetterman is airing another commercial pushing back on Republican Mehmet Oz and his allies' ads hitting the Democrat's work as head of the state Board of Pardons, which has been the GOP's favorite line of attack in the general election.

"Here's the truth: John gave a second chance to those who deserved it―nonviolent offenders, marijuana users," Montgomery County Sheriff Sean Kilkenny tells the audience, continuing, "He voted with law enforcement experts nearly 90% of the time. He reunited families and protected our freedom―and he saved taxpayer money." Kilkenny adds, "Dr. Oz doesn't know a thing about crime. He only knows how to help himself."

The GOP, though, is trying to push a very different line. Some of the party's favorite targets have been Lee and Dennis Horton, brothers who spent 27 years in prison after being convicted of second degree murder. The two in 1993 gave a ride to a friend named Robert Leaf who had just killed someone in a robbery, though they have always maintained that they didn't know Leaf had just committed murder. Gov. Tom Wolf last year commuted the Hortons' life sentences after Fetterman and prison officials championed their case, and the two went on to take jobs on Fetterman's Senate campaign.

Oz's campaign, though, has been happy to try to turn them into a liability for their boss, saying, "If John Fetterman cared about Pennsylvania's crime problem, he'd prove it by firing the convicted murderers he employs on his campaign." Fetterman, for his part, told the New York Times that if Republicans "destroy" his political career for advocating for people like the Hortons, "then so be it."

Polls:

AZ-Sen: Suffolk University for the Arizona Republic: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 49, Blake Masters (R): 42, Marc Victor (L): 2

NC-Sen: GSG (D) for Cheri Beasley: Cheri Beasley (D): 46, Ted Budd (R): 46 (May: 45-45 tie)

OH-Sen: Siena College for Spectrum News: Tim Ryan (D): 46, J.D. Vance (R): 43

PA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) for WTXF-TV: John Fetterman (D): 45, Mehmet Oz (R): 42

PA-Sen: Marist College: Fetterman (D): 51, Oz (R): 41

Governors

PA-Gov: Campaign finance reports covering the period of June 7 to Sept. 19 are out, and they show that Democrat Josh Shapiro's $25.4 million haul utterly dwarfed the $3.2 million that Republican Doug Mastriano took in. Shapiro goes into the final weeks with a $10.9 million to $2.6 million cash-on-hand edge over Mastriano, who still has not so much as reserved any TV time and who recently lamented he's "[r]eally not finding a lot of support from the national-level Republican organizations."

P.S. Politico's Holly Otterbein flags that Mastriano received a $500 donation from Andrew Torba, the founder of the white supremist social network Gab. That's still far less than the $5,000 that Mastriano paid Gab in April for "campaign consulting," though.

Polls:

AZ-Gov: Suffolk University for the Arizona Republic: Katie Hobbs (D-inc): 46, Kari Lake (R): 45

CT-Gov: Western New England University for CTInsider and WFSB: Ned Lamont (D-inc): 55, Bob Stefanowski (R): 40

ME-Gov: University of New Hampshire: Janet Mills (D-inc): 53, Paul LePage (R): 39, Sam Hunkler (I): 1

OH-Gov: Siena College for Spectrum News: Mike DeWine (R-inc): 55, Nan Whaley (D): 32

PA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (R) for WTXF-TV: Josh Shapiro (D): 52, Doug Mastriano (R): 37

PA-Gov: Marist College: Shapiro (D): 53, Mastriano (R): 40

Quinnipiac University last week gave Lamont a similar 57-40 lead in its home state.

Early September numbers from the progressive Maine People's Resource Center showed Mills up 49-38 in a race that hasn't gotten much attention from pollsters.

House

MT-01: Democrat Monica Tranel has publicized an internal from Impact Research that shows her trailing Republican Ryan Zinke only 45-43 in this newly-created seat in the western part of the state. This is the first poll we've seen from this 52-45 Trump constituency.

House: The Washington Post reports that top allies of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy were involved in a serious effort to deny the GOP nod to several House candidates they feared would either threaten his power or prove to be weak general election candidates, a drive the paper says they concealed during the primaries by sending cash "from top GOP donors through organizations that do not disclose their donors or have limited public records."

Their most prominent target was North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who was a massive pain even before the far-right freshman claimed that an unidentified colleague had invited him to an "orgy" and that he'd witnessed prominent conservatives doing "a key bump of cocaine." Cawthorn lost renomination to state Sen. Chuck Edwards after a group called Results for N.C. spent $1.7 million against the incumbent, and the Post writes that two McCarthy allies were part of its effort.

The paper adds that the minority leader's people were involved in the successful drives to block Anthony Sabatini in Florida's 7th District and Carl Paladino in New York's 23rd, who were each attacked by a newly-established group called American Liberty Action PAC. Both men blamed McCarthy for what happened, and the Post writes that his allies were indeed working to stop them: "They would have been legislative terrorists whose goal was fame," explained one unnamed source.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is close to the GOP leadership, also openly got involved in several more primaries, though it got decidedly mixed results for the $7 million it spent. CLF's ads helped secure general election berths for California Reps. Young Kim and David Valadao; Mississippi Rep. Michael Guest; and Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei. CLF also managed to advance Morgan Luttrell through the primary for Texas' open 8th District over a candidate backed by the troublesome Freedom Caucus, while it spent $40,000 on get out the vote calls for Florida Rep. Daniel Webster.

The super PAC, though, failed to get its preferred nominees across the finish line elsewhere. In Arizona's 4th, restaurateur Kelly Cooper overcame $1.5 million in CLF spending meant to ensure that establishment favorite Tanya Wheeless was Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton's rival instead. Democrats have since launched commercials faulting Cooper for, among other things, having "compared federal law enforcement agents to Nazis and the Gestapo."

CLF also fell short in its efforts to block Karoline Leavitt in New Hampshire's 1st and Brandon Williams in New York's 22nd, while another organization it funded couldn't prevent Joe Kent from beating out Washington Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary.

But CLF's worst failure is arguably in North Carolina's 1st District where its $600,000 offensive wasn't enough to stop Sandy Smith. Democrats have spent the general election running commercials focusing on the abuse allegations that surfaced against her during the May primary, including a new spot highlighting how her daughter and two former husbands have accused her of domestic violence.

Obituaries

Mark Souder: Indiana Republican Mark Souder, who was elected to the House during the 1994 red wave but resigned in 2010 after revealing an affair with a staffer, died Monday at the age of 72. Souder, who was perhaps best known for his advocacy of abstinence education, was an ardent conservative, though he defied his party leaders in two notable occasions early in his career: Souder was part of the failed 1997 revolt against Newt Gingrich, and he voted against two of the four articles of impeachment against President Bill Clinton the next year.

Souder got his start as an aide to then-Rep. Dan Coats, and in 1994 he decisively won a six-way primary to reclaim the Fort Wayne-based 4th District that Coats had once represented. Souder’s opponent was Democratic incumbent Jill Long Thompson, who pulled off a big upset in the 1989 special to replace Coats after he was appointed to replace Vice President Dan Quayle in the Senate. However, while Thompson had convincingly won her next two terms, the terrible climate for her party powered Souder to a 55-45 win in this historically Republican area.

Souder quickly became entrenched in his new seat, which was renumbered the 3rd District in the 2002 round of redistricting: The congressman only failed to win by double digits once when he turned back Democrat Tom Hayhurst 54-46 during the 2006 blue wave. However, Souder became a tea party target in 2010 after supporting the 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program and later the Obama administration’s Cash for Clunkers program.

Souder ended up turning back self-funding auto dealer Bob Thomas by an unimpressive 48-34 margin, but he had very little time to enjoy his win. Just weeks later, the married congressman announced, “I sinned against God, my wife and my family by having a mutual relationship with a part-time member of my staff,” and that he’d be resigning over the scandal. Souder, whose marriage survived the ordeal, never ran for office again, though he became a regular columnist for the Indiana tip-sheet Howey Politics and wrote extensively about Fort Wayne’s local TV and baseball history.

Ad Roundup

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