The Downballot: Holy crap, what an amazing night! (transcript)

Holy crap, what an amazing night! Where do we even begin this week's episode of The Downballot? Well, we know exactly where: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday's extraordinary results, starting with a clear-eyed examination of the issue that animated Democrats as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. They also discuss candidate quality (still really important!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and "soft" Biden disapprovers (lots of them voted for Democrats).

The Davids then catalog the uncalled races for Senate and game out what might happen in the House; review the clean sweep for the good guys in five states that had abortion-related measures on the ballot; and finish off with some delicious, gourmet schadenfreude. You won't want to miss out!

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

David Beard:

Hello and welcome. I'm David Beard, contributing editor for Daily Kos Elections.

David Nir:

And I'm David Nir, political director of Daily Kos. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. And man, oh man, did we have some of those this week. David Beard, where do we even start?

David Beard:

I just feel like the entire life of this podcast has been us warning people. "Oh, it's a midterm, Democratic president, probably going to be a bad year, historically, yada, yada." And now here we are. And it was actually pretty good.

David Nir:

I mean, that's honestly awesome. I'd much, much, much rather it be that way, than it be the reverse of that. I think just about every other Democrat went into Tuesday night with extremely low expectations. I had tried to steel myself for the worst, and it was just one upside surprise after another. And I have been following elections for 20 years. I can't recall feeling that way on election night before.

David Beard:

Yeah, all you had to do was get past Florida, let the Republican wave of Florida wash over you, get past it. As we've learned, Florida will always break your heart. And then, the rest of the country was just victory after victory. It was incredible.

David Nir:

Yeah. We have gotten so used to disappointment that we almost forget what winning looks like. So let's talk about those wins and why we won.

And there's just no doubt in my mind that we have to focus on the one issue that we focused on more than any other on this podcast, as an organization at Daily Kos Elections this entire year, but especially since the end of June, and that is abortion. There is just no doubt about it. Despite the pundits in the fall who tried to tell us that this was not the right issue for Democrats to be pursuing, that Democrats were making a huge mistake in not focusing on the economy or other issues. Abortion was a massive factor in this incredible upset of a night.

David Beard:

And I think all those people, who said that Dobbs would just sort of fade away, and that after three months it was going to no longer be at the front of people's minds, were just crazy. Look at the history of the fight for abortion rights that has been going on for decades or longer, in some places across the world.

And the idea that this massive, massive change was going to cause sort of a temporary spike for a couple of months in Democrats' polling and then just fade away is, in retrospect, just a crazy, crazy idea. That is not how real regular people view politics. They don't view it as this narrative that so many people in [Washington,] D.C., in the sort of punditocracy, want to view it as like, "Oh, Dobbs happened."

Then there was a whole story about it, August special elections narrative, and then other things happened. So we have to move on in the narrative to other issues. But for millions and millions of people, this is a huge core issue that they're not going to forget about and they're going to vote on.

David Nir:

Yeah, this punditocracy was treating abortion rights like gas prices. Gas prices go up, voters get angry, gas prices go down, they start to think about other things. Well, you know what didn't happen since Dobbs? It’s that abortion rights weren't suddenly restored across the country. Nothing made that issue go away. And, if anything, everything that went on kept highlighting it. For instance, let's not forget about Lindsay Graham and his national abortion ban.

Republicans did a really good job of helping Democrats remind voters what the stakes were. Let's not forget the Kansas vote, over the summer, on the abortion amendment, which we'll circle back to, because I think that played a big role on Tuesday night as well.

So yeah, you're exactly right. This notion that it was going to be a flash in the pan, temporary blip... really not how people work.

David Beard:

And I think the other issue, obviously, that Democrats ran extensively on, and a lot of people dismissed as being unimportant, as not being something people would vote on, is democracy protection. And the core protections of the United States, as a democratic country, where people vote and the election results are respected. And a lot of people who are too smart for their own good went around and thought, "Oh, regular people aren't going to care about that. Regular people are just going to vote because of inflation or because their gas prices went up."

And what it turned out is that a lot of people do care about democracy. A lot of people do care about fairness and election results, and those being treated as important as they really are. And they voted on that. And we see election deniers losing race after race. We saw Democrats, who were going to protect elections rights, winning Governor's races, winning Secretary of State's races. And I really believe that issue did matter and did break through.

David Nir:

Yeah, it seemed as though Republicans believed there was no price to be paid for being an extremist, when it comes to authoritarianism, and rejecting democracy, and rejecting the rule of law. And frankly, a lot of reporters went along with this. The traditional way that the media works, of presenting both sides, and refusing to take a side, or calling out lies on one side and admitting that the other side is actually true and correct and right, that I think gave Republicans a lot of permission to think that there would be no price to pay. Because reporters didn't care. But reporters are not voters, and the voters really, really did care. And there are a lot of ways we can look at this. You mentioned all of the races where the big name GOP election deniers lost.

But one other interesting thing that I've been noticing, and will definitely be digging into more in the weeks ahead, is that in a number of these states, the races for secretary of state, the Democrats won by bigger margins in those races than in a lot of the other statewide races. And that blows my mind because I am a massive election nerd. I really care about this stuff. I have been talking about the importance of these kinds of races, especially Secretary of State races, for a really, really long time. And most people, they're not going to pay that much attention to what's going on in specific downballot statewide races.

But we have some pretty clear evidence this time that they really did, that more people were voting for Democrats running for secretary of state than for other offices. And there's only one possible explanation for that. And the answer is that, wow, they actually really, really care about democracy and fairness and elections, and the rule of law.

David Beard:

We spend, obviously, a ton of time thinking about elections, working on elections, as I'm sure a lot of our listeners spend a lot of time thinking about elections, that's why they listen to us. And the average person doesn't. The average voter doesn't. They spend most of their time on their job, on their families, on a lot of other interests, and they spend a very little amount of time thinking about who they're going to vote for.

And I think it can be easy to dismiss the idea that like, "Oh, then they just get a lot of TV ads, or mailers, or whatever, and that's what influences their vote." But I think particularly reporters and pundits can be dismissive of voters. Voters take elections seriously, most voters do, and they want to vote for the right candidate. And even people who strongly disagree with us, people who vote for Republicans regularly, some of them could clearly see that what you need is a Secretary of State, or an Attorney General, who respects the rule of law, who will not try to pretend that somebody who lost an election actually won it. And they were willing to go and vote for the Democrat who was willing to do that, even as they voted for a Republican for Senate, for Governor, down the ballot in other places.

David Nir:

In terms of voters taking elections seriously, I think that brings us to the next topic that we want to talk about, which is that candidate quality still matters. And this is another issue we hit over and over again this year.

But Republicans nominated just an extraordinary array of truly terrible candidates, some of whom were genuinely terrible human beings. And this had an impact. This had an impact. The GOP paid a price.

Now, maybe Ron DeSantis can skate because Florida's become such a weird, odd duck. But there are countless races that we can point to that Republicans lost on Tuesday night, or we found out on Wednesday that they lost, or going to find out in the coming days, simply because they nominated truly terrible people and they deserve everything that they're getting as a result of this.

And the problem is in no way symmetrical. In fact, it's really diametrically opposite. It's almost impossible to think of a Democrat, anywhere this year, who ran in any competitive race, who fumbled away a race because they sucked as a candidate or they were a bad person.

And this is a deep problem for the GOP and I have no idea how they can overcome it. And you know what? If they want to keep nominating terrible people and giving Democrats a huge and important advantage in close races, well, maybe that's something we just need to accept.

David Beard:

And it's really bigger than that because it's an incentive problem. And that's why it's so hard for the Republicans to fix. Because as long as it's Donald Trump's party, the type of people who Donald Trump are going to like and endorse, and probably win primaries. And the type of people who are going to want to run in Donald Trump's Republican Party, are charlatans, are people with bad histories, people who are extremists, who are election deniers. All of that stuff attracts people to Donald Trump's GOP. And as long as it's Donald Trump's GOP, those are the candidates you're going to get.

You can look at the five Republican candidates in the key Senate races this year, which is Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, Donald Bolduc in New Hampshire, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, and Blake Masters in Arizona. And that is not a murderer's row. It is some of the worst Senate candidates, probably, that any major party has nominated in recent history, particularly Blake Masters, Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz. Like just terrible candidates with terrible favorables, lots of scandals.

And as a result, Oz lost. Walker is probably going to a runoff, and is slightly behind heading into the runoff. Masters is, I think, probably going to lose in Arizona. And you can chalk that up, in at least large part, to the fact that they're terrible candidates with terrible favorables.

David Nir:

And let's not forget New Hampshire. I mean, a blowout win in New Hampshire, especially after Maggie Hassan won her last race by 1,000 votes, that doesn't happen without, in part, Bolduc being so absolutely terrible.

David Beard:

Absolutely. And the other thing that we saw last night is that Democratic primary meddling mostly worked out. Tell us about that.

David Nir:

Yeah, it 100% worked out, in fact. That's the other part of this here, there was so much handwringing during the primary season about races where Democrats looked at the GOP primary field and said, you know what? We're going to have a better chance at winning in the general election if this total schmuck beats out the somewhat less bad guy. Democrats very wisely said, we're going to get involved here, and we are simply going to help the ultra-MAGA brigades do what they're already wanting to do, and that is nominate the worst of the worst, and if we do that then we're going to have a better chance at winning. And that's really important because we need the party that believes in democracy, i.e. the Democrats, to win elections. This isn't just about raw power or screwing with the GOP for the sake of it, this is about preserving democracy.

And so in all of these races where Democrats succeeded in helping Republicans to nominate their least acceptable candidate, on Tuesday night the Republican lost in every single one of these races across the country. People make it sound like this was some massive widespread phenomenon. Democrats did this probably in about 20 or so races, maybe in about half of them the worst GOP candidate actually won the nomination, so we're talking about maybe eight to 10. In all of those the terrible Republican lost. And there were so many handwringers who were worried that Democrats were playing with fire and almost suggesting that it was the Democrats’ obligation to help Republicans nominate non-awful candidates, and that's BS; that's their problem, not ours.

And I want to highlight one race in particular where this was really, really important and that I think prompted the greatest freakout, and that's Michigan's 3rd congressional district. It's a race we've talked about before on this show. It's a district that was redrawn by the state's new independent redistricting commission; it's around the Grand Rapids area; it became significantly bluer; and Republican congressman Peter Meijer, he did exactly one good thing in his life, which was he voted for Donald Trump's impeachment, so that painted a huge target on his back. And Democrats nominated a really good candidate there, Hillary Scholten, who ran a close race against Meijer in 2020, but Meijer drew a primary challenge from an absolute lunatic named John Gibbs. This guy actually suggested that he opposed the 19th Amendment, the one that granted women the right to vote, that's how out there John Gibbs was.

And the DCCC spent some money toward the end of that primary to help Gibbs win, and God, Twitter was absolutely insufferable at that point. Gibbs beat Peter Meijer, and what did Peter Meijer supposed moderate, supposed rule of law lover do after the primary? He endorsed John Gibbs, he proved that he's just like the rest of them. And guess what happened on Tuesday night? Hillary Scholten won. That was a huge, huge pickup for Democrats. We still don't know exactly what's going to happen with control of the House, but no matter what happens, having that seat in Democrats hands and electing another woman to Congress is incredibly important for ensuring either that Democrats hold the House, or are in a better position to retake the house in the future.

David Beard:

And what I want to highlight about that topic in general is that we're talking about money getting spent in these races. This was not some sort of situation where Democrats were going in, thousands and thousands of voters, going in and trying to vote for the more extremist candidate in these parties, it was simply the Democratic party spending some money to highlight the more extremist candidate, which then Republican primary voters eagerly lapped up. The fault ultimately for nominating Gibbs is upon the Republican primary voters who voted for him, not on the fact that the Democratic Party took advantage of the fact that the Republican Party is a big fan of extremists.

One other issue I wanted to highlight from a big picture perspective was the Biden approval/disapproval question that we'd talked about a fair amount on the podcast, around what might happen with these Biden disapprovers who were undecided. The fear would be that they would run to Republicans in the end and cause a Republican year to turn out. And while obviously exit polls have a lot of problems—so you want to take them with a big grain of salt—you can look at and get a general sense of how this turned out. And from the exit poll you can see there are about 44% of people who either strongly or somewhat approved of Biden, and they went obviously overwhelmingly for Democrats. And then there were about 45% of the voters who strongly disapproved of Biden, and they overwhelmingly went for the Republicans, both as you would expect.

And then there were 10% of voters who somewhat disapproved of Biden, you can call it soft Biden disapprovers, and they went slightly for Democrats, 49% to 45%. Now that's not going to be an exact figure, because this is an exit poll, so I wouldn't take that four-point margin as gospel, but I do think what it shows you is that there was about 5% of the electorate, give or take, who were Biden disapprovers who voted for Democrats anyway, either because they were actually disapproving of Biden from the left, or they were worried about Republican extremism, or they were worried about abortion rights, whatever the reason was, those voters took the fact that they weren't happy with Biden and they still went and voted for Democrats, and they were key to this result being as good as it turned out to be.

David Nir:

And I think one big reason for that analytical error is that you see Joe Biden, he's the president, he's in the White House, he sucks up so much attention, especially for reporters, and so you naturally presume that someone who disapproves of him is going to be a Republican voter. Except the problem is that there are two parties on the ballot, and if you're only looking at Biden approvals, then you're missing the part of the analysis that requires you to look at, how do people view the GOP? What are the favorables of the Republican Party? To an extent, what do people think of Mitch McConnell or Kevin McCarthy? What do they think of Republicans generally?

And you're going to find that there are people who say that they don't like both, and knowing what those sorts of people are going to do, that's a tricky thing. And it turns out, Beard, as you were saying just a moment ago, that actually that this group of soft Biden disapprovers, who are probably also GOP disapprovers, well, they split pretty evenly. And you have to remember, you can't just look at presidential approval/disapproval ratings in a vacuum; there are always two sides to every election in this country.

David Beard:

And particularly when Donald Trump has obviously decided not to go away, or retire gracefully as so many former presidents do, and take somewhat of a step back from day-to-day politics, Donald Trump wants to be the center of attention all the time, and it's clearly bad for Republicans. The reality is Donald Trump has never won the popular vote, Republicans usually lose elections ever since he became their nominee in 2016, and he's a drag on the party, but they can't get away from him.

David Nir:

Well, I think now would be a really good time for us to actually talk about some of the elections that are still up in the air. Now we're recording this on Wednesday evening, the show will come out Thursday morning, some stuff will definitely have changed by the time you're listening to this, and especially if you're listening later on Thursday or on Friday. So we're going to keep this overview as general as possible, just be mindful that stuff, like I said, is going to change, so you should definitely be following us on Twitter at @DKelections. You need to be signed up to our newsletter, our free daily newsletter, called The Morning Digest, go to dailykos.com/morningdigest to sign up for that; we will keep you apprised of every call in every key race, I promise you. But for now we are going to do the best we possibly can to give you the lay of the land as things stand at the moment. Beard, what do we got?

David Beard:

There are four Senate races that haven't been decided yet—one of which, Alaska, is between two Republicans, so we're just going to set that aside, because that doesn't change the math of the Senate. So that leaves us with three states. Georgia has been called as a runoff between Senator Warnock and Herschel Walker, so that will be taking place on December 6th. That leaves us with two races where we're still waiting for results from Tuesday night to see whether Democrats will hold these two seats; they need to hold either both of these seats, or one of these seats and win the Georgia runoff, in order to get the 50 seats and retain a majority in the Senate.

So in Arizona we've got about 66% of the vote counted, as of Wednesday evening. Senator Mark Kelly, the Democrat, has an advantage of about five percentage points over his Republican opponent, Blake Masters. There are a lot of votes left to count, obviously most of those votes are votes that were either mailed in and received in the last day or two, so Monday or Tuesday, or mail votes that were dropped off on election day. The difference obviously is that the mail votes have to go through a different verification process than the actual election day votes—those obviously you get checked in and then you just cast your vote—but even if you drop off your mail vote on Election Day, that still has to go through the regular mail verification process.

So those votes don't really lean significantly one way or the other, looking at past history, compared to the early, early vote, which was strongly Democratic, as we expected, or the Election Day vote, which was strongly Republican. So those have been counted, and so mostly we have a big chunk of votes where we're not entirely sure which way those are going to lean, or if they're going to lean one way or another strongly. But I think the broad expectation is Kelly will probably be okay, but obviously with these many votes out, it's just not possible to make a call for anybody at this point.

David Beard:

Then in Nevada, we've got about 77% of the vote in. And there, Adam Laxalt, the Republican candidate, is narrowly leading incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto by a couple of points. The good news here is that the ballots remaining are almost entirely mail ballots that were either received Monday, Tuesday in the mail, or that were dropped off in person on Election Day.

And in Nevada, we would expect these to largely favor the Democrat. The question, of course, is exactly how many of those are left. And in Nevada, mail ballots can be received until Saturday as long as they were postmarked on election day. And so the question is how many of those ballots are still left to be counted and what exactly that margin will be because the mail ballot margin has jumped around a bit. They've almost always favored Democrats. But the question is, is it a small margin or is it a large margin? So that one is very much still up in the air and we just kind of have to wait for those mail ballots to be counted over the next few days.

David Nir:

And then amazingly, we're going to another runoff in Georgia. There is a really big difference though between this one and the one that took place last year, which is that after the 2020/2021 runoff that of course Warnock and John Ossoff won, Republicans were super pissed about those results. And you'll recall last year that they passed a huge package of voting restrictions to try to suppress the vote. And that bill included a provision that shrunk the runoff period from nine weeks to just four weeks. The runoff last year was in January. This time it's going to be on December 6th. Republicans seem to think that this offers them some sort of advantage. I'm not really clear why, especially since Warnock is such a vastly better fundraiser than Herschel Walker is.

One thing to note is that you might be aware that Donald Trump supposedly has some sort of announcement plan for November 15th, that's a week after election day, and everyone seems convinced that he's planning to announce a third bid for the presidency that day. But some of his sycophants are now begging him to put off that announcement until after the runoff on December 6th because he completely screwed up the last runoff. We can't say for certain what kind of impact that had on the race, but given that Democrats narrowly won those two runoffs, we can say that it probably wasn't a good thing that Donald Trump was running his mouth off. I think that a Trump presidential announcement next week would not be good news for Herschel Walker.

David Beard:

The other potential factor there is that there's a good chance that we'll know who controls the House of Representatives by the time the runoff takes place. And I think as we'll talk about soon, there's a good chance that's probably the Republicans, if extremely narrowly. And if Arizona and Nevada are both won by Democrats, that would also cement Democratic control of the Senate regardless of the result of the Georgia runoff. And then the race can become a lot less about which party controls Congress, will there be a check on the Biden administration if there's a Republican House in that case, and focus a lot more on the candidates. Because if there's not, that sort of national issue at the same level as there was when people were voting this past time, I think there's a chance that there are going to be Republicans who really, really don't like Herschel Walker who will either stay home and not bother with the runoff or even vote for Warnock if control of the Senate isn't at stake or if there's already a check on Biden in the House. So I think that could go to Warnock's benefit as well.

David Nir:

So let's talk about the House. Obviously it is a real moving target. There are so many races in play. How should we think about this?

David Beard:

So I think the Republicans are still pretty clearly favored to eke out at least 218 seats and have a majority. Whether that's a functional majority or not, we'll see, and we can talk about that later. But the Republicans, as I see it, currently either have called or are pretty strongly favored in 215 seats and the Democrats either have called or are pretty strongly favored in 207 seats, which leave about 13 seats, where it's really not 100% clear who is the favored party at this point, again, as of Wednesday evening. And this will continue to change in the days ahead.

So Democrats would need to win 11 of those 13 seats to actually get a majority of 218 seats. I have them currently, if I absolutely had to push them one way or another, I have them favored in eight, but it's so up in the air a lot of these seats that it's really, I think, not even useful to think about it in that way. I think it's best to think of there being 13 races where it's not clear which party is favored. And so if Democrats can somehow win 11 of those seats, they can win a majority. But I think that's a tough road. I think you most likely end up with Republicans somewhere in the nature of 220 seats, 221, something like that, and just an absolutely crazy majority that they have to wrangle for Kevin McCarthy, if he does end up becoming Speaker.

David Nir:

Yeah. We don't usually talk about the goings on in parliamentary maneuvering on Capitol Hill, but I think it's worth pausing here for a second to discuss that possibility. If Kevin McCarthy is speaker of the House with let's say 220 members in his caucus, you are going to see such a stark difference between his skill set and Nancy Pelosi's. Nancy Pelosi, we talk about the 50/50 Senate and how well Democrats did with that, Nancy Pelosi did an incredible job managing more than four times as many members in her caucus with a majority that was almost as narrow. I mean, she had times where she had 1, 2, 3 seat real advantages in a lot of roll call votes, and she kept it together the whole time.

McCarthy, man, I mean Matt Gaetz is already reportedly whipping votes against McCarthy in a vote for Speaker of the House. Now, I would love to delve into the nitty gritty of how that vote would work. We'll save that for another day. The fact is that McCarthy would have virtually no room for error, and that guy is just one big error. Even if he becomes Speaker, I really don't see him having much control over that nightmare, nightmare caucus. Anyway, let's put a pin in that one. There's still a lot of game left to play. And of course, like I said, we will be tracking all of it really, really closely.

One area that we have to address today, of course we started talking about abortion at the top of the show, but you'll recall that abortion was literally on the ballot in five key states. There were ballot measures relating to abortion and reproductive rights that went before voters in California, Vermont, Michigan, Kentucky, and Montana. And it was a clean sweep for the good guys.

So we can group them into three categories. California, Vermont, and Michigan all had measures on the ballot to amend their state constitutions to affirmatively recognize the right to an abortion. So those states all passed those measures by considerable margins. And now those constitutions will enshrine a right to an abortion and hopefully serve as a model for other blue states that really ought to do the same thing. This means that especially in a swing state like Michigan, that even if Republicans do regain control of the state government... and by the way, one of the most amazing things that happened on Tuesday night was that Democrats have won a trifecta, meaning they won both chambers of the Michigan legislature and the governorship for the first time in a bajillion years. But if Republicans ever take back state government in Michigan, they would find having almost impossible time rolling back abortion rights because it's in the state constitution now.

Now let's talk about Kentucky. Kentucky had a measure on the ballot that was very similar to the one that was defeated in Kansas this summer that would've amended the state constitution to say it does not include a right to an abortion. And voters turned that back. Now, it was a much smaller margin than in Kansas, except Kentucky's much redder even than Kansas. Donald Trump won the state by about 26 points. So the fact that there was a pro-choice majority in deep red Kentucky is really, really amazing.

Similarly, in Montana, also another very red state, voters there rejected a measure that wasn't directly related to abortion, but that emerged from the same anti-abortion rights movement, the measure would have required doctors to provide life-saving care to infants who are born but have absolutely no chance of living. It was incredibly cruel. It would require doctors to wrench dying babies from the arms of their parents who just want to hold them for a few minutes before they give up their short little lives and do unspeakably cruel things to these fragile bodies that are already going to die. It was absolutely, absolutely evil stuff and Montana voters rejected it. So again, a huge clean sweep for progressives on abortion rights. We got to put abortion rights on the ballot everywhere every year, don't you think, Beard?

David Beard:

Absolutely. I'm not sure that there is a state in the country that would pass an abortion ban if they voted on it through a popular vote after Kentucky defeated theirs. There aren't many states out there that are more socially conservative than Kentucky. Again, I say that from love because I was born in Kentucky, but it's a deep, deep red state at this point.

The other flag I want to make is Michigan. Michigan was one of the ground zero states for this abortion fight. It was also one of the ground zero states for the democracy fight, and it had one of the best performances for Democrats in the whole country. They basically won everything at almost every level. And I think that shows that those issues, the more that they mattered and the more that they pushed through, the better Democrats did.

David Nir:

And there will be ballot measures on abortion on the ballot in 2024. Activists are already moving forward in South Dakota. And if they can win in Kentucky, like you said, then they can win in South Dakota and lots of other states like that. So stay tuned on that front because there will be plenty more to come.

David Beard:

And lastly, we want to wrap up with a bit of schadenfreude. Obviously after an election night like Tuesday and so many expectations around the incredible Republican red wave that so many people were so sure of. We can't help but look back at a few predictions that maybe were not quite right. But first I want to start with an anonymous top Pennsylvania Democrat, who after the John Fetterman debate performance, who people were concerned about, because obviously he stumbled over his words a number of times. There were some answers that weren't great and concerns about, obviously, his medical history and his recovery from the stroke.

But instead of having a reasonable response to that, this anonymous top Pennsylvania Democrat went to a journalist and said, "If I'm the Democrats," this person said, "I'm putting my money in Ohio." Well, that person shouldn't work in politics anymore, because Democrats won in Pennsylvania and they lost in Ohio, which is what I think most people would've expected based on the fundamentals and based on Fetterman's continued popularity throughout the entire campaign. So the over reliance on this one debate that probably changed very few minds is just absolutely, absolutely crazy.

David Nir:

Yeah, and that's a perfect example of Beltway Media Group think. And also, you know what? I am so beyond sick of these Democratic operatives and strategists and consultants treating reporters like their therapists. Go find a real therapist. Go out there and spend your time doing real work. Why was this supposed top Democrat wasting time talking to a reporter, to kvetch about John Fetterman, instead of helping John Fetterman win? Well, I hope Fetterman has some guesses as to who that is. I certainly have no idea, but that person ought to be persona non grata forever.

David Beard:

The other article I would like to quote a few excerpts from is from the New Yorker from November 4th, titled “Why Republican Insiders Think That GOP is Poised For a Blowout,” and it has such wonderful quotes such as, speaking about the defection of Hispanics to the GOP in Nevada, the Republican strategist told me, "The reasons that Democrats have fucked this up is that they won't stop talking about abortion. And the reason they screwed it up with Blacks is they won't stop talking about abortion. It's like they're a two-issue party. It's this and Trump. They can't stop. I don't think they have anything else." Well, it turned out we didn't need anything else. That was plenty.

David Nir:

Yeah. And let's not forget about the fretting about how Black voters, especially Black men, were deserting Democrats supposedly. Man, is there anything the pundits got right this year?

David Beard:

I know. There is so far no evidence. Obviously, there'll be lots of investigations into precincts and a lot of vote analysis, but it doesn't look like any of that came true. Then a couple more quotes before we wrap from that same article. "The Republican pollster who has been regularly surveying Pennsylvania, told me that when it came to the Democratic focus on abortion, there just doesn't seem to be any specificity. You'd want to do it with high-education, high-income supporters. It's like, no, they're running on abortion constantly.” I'm like, “Scranton.” And again, apparently abortion is something people like to have available in Scranton. Surprise, surprise.

David Nir:

Guess what? We won a huge race in Scranton last night. Democratic Congressman Matt Cartwright, who was running in a Trump district and a top GOP target. He won reelection, because they like abortion in Scranton. They like it everywhere.

David Beard:

And then to wrap on another quote from that same pollster, from the same article. "I can show you the trajectory of all our races. We took a benchmark in July. Okay, this is going to be harder than we thought. And then it looks like a V. We went straight down. And then once we finally got to October, we have enough money, the electorate becomes more fully engaged. And then the other side of the V is straight back up. I can show you the same story in probably 25 races." And what that tells me is that the polls were all over the place for Republicans, because I personally really, really doubt the idea that the electorate had this massive change up and down. And then obviously clearly didn't end up on the V for Republicans anyway.

But I don't think this is what was happening. I think the race was a lot more stable than that. And these insider polls that jump all over the place are not accurately reflecting what the public is thinking. And so that's something that we should take forward into future cycles as well. Like these insider polls that pop up and down and start influencing the narrative, they're probably not worth that much.

David Nir:

Yeah, there was this almost meme, this notion that during the summer when Democrats were doing well in Kansas and doing well in all of those House special elections, that somehow Democratic voters almost had the playing field to themselves. Republicans were disengaged. And then in the fall that they were going to become reengaged by the economy and inflation and GOP scaremongering about crime. And man, that just didn't happen. I mean, we still have a ways to go before we see what all the data looks like, but Tuesday felt certainly a lot closer to the summertime elections, than it did to an election in a normal midterm, that's for sure.

David Beard:

And in terms of looking at evidence that helps you predict an election, the things that really held up this election were A, the generic ballot polling from nonpartisan pollsters, which was right about neutral, give or take a point on either side. And that's probably about where we'll end up. And then the special elections that took place. And the Washington State top two primary that were actual elections that people voted in, in August, and surprise, surprise, were actually how people voted in November as well. So those are the kinds of things you can actually take from and extrapolate to think how an election might go. Random insider polls from Republican pollsters, probably not.

David Nir:

Yeah, there's obviously going to have to be a big rethink, not just from pollsters themselves, but also from analysts about how they consume polling. It is a huge, huge topic. I'm sure we will talk about it plenty in the coming election cycle. But for now, I think it's time to call a lid on this week's episode of The Downballot. Like I said, we are following all of the uncalled races like hawks. Follow us, DKElections on Twitter. Sign up for our newsletter, dailykos.com/morningdigest. You'll get that in your inbox at 8:00 AM Eastern for free every weekday.

We will cover everything and we will continue this conversation next week's episode. Thank you so much for joining us. We hope that The Downballot was illuminating and informative this entire election cycle. We will continue to be here for many, many, many weeks to come. So please tune in again next week. And thank you to those who have subscribed. We will have another great episode next Thursday.

The Daily Kos Elections hour-by-hour guide to election night 2022

Election night is almost here—Tuesday!—and we have a lot of exciting races in store across the country for Senate, governor, and House. There are also several contests for attorney general and secretary of state in swing states that could play a big role in future years in determining how elections are overseen and certified.

What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's key elections. At the top of this post is our map showing poll closing times across the country. All times are Eastern, though we also have versions of this map for each of the other U.S. time zones.

You can also find the 2020 presidential results for the nation’s new congressional districts here, as well as the results for the lines that were used in the 2020 elections. (Note that many incumbents are running in districts with different numbers than the ones they represent now.) For interactive maps of the new districts, check out Dave's Redistricting App.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races and more after the first polls close at 6 PM ET on election night, so please join us at Daily Kos Elections for our complete coverage.

6 PM ET

Indiana (Eastern Time Zone), and Kentucky (Eastern Time Zone)

The first hour of election night will be pretty quiet. Indiana Sen. Todd Young and his fellow Republican, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, are both secure, and there are no competitive House races in the eastern parts of either state.

7 PM ET

Florida (Eastern Time Zone), Indiana (rest of state), Kentucky (rest of state), Georgia, New Hampshire (most towns), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

Florida: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has massively outraised his Democratic rival, former Rep. Charlie Crist, and it will be a true surprise if he struggles in a state that has been moving to the right in recent years. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, faces considerably better-funded opposition from Democratic Rep. Val Demings, but polls show the incumbent in good shape.

There aren’t many competitive House races because DeSantis successfully pressured the GOP legislature to aggressively gerrymander the map to create 20 districts that Donald Trump would have won versus just eight that Joe Biden would have carried: Under the old map, Trump would have won just 15 seats to Biden’s 12 (Florida gained a district thanks to reapportionment).

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the House GOP’s main super PAC, has been spending heavily in the 27th District to help freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar fend off state Sen. Annette Taddeo in a Miami-area constituency that Trump would have narrowly carried. However, House Majority PAC (HMP) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which have enjoyed access to considerably less money than their GOP rival, have not been airing ads here or in any other Florida contests.

The newly created 15th District in the Tampa and northeastern suburbs is also worth watching at just 51-48 Trump, but there hasn’t been any serious outside spending on either side. The contest pits former Republican Secretary of State Laurel Lee against Democrat Alan Cohn, a former local TV anchor who was Team Blue’s 2020 nominee, against now-Rep. Scott Franklin (who is running in the 18th).

The St. Petersburg-based 13th District, where Crist resigned over the summer to focus on his statewide bid, has also looked like a likely GOP pickup for 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna ever since the new map transformed it from a seat Biden would have taken 51-47 to one that Trump would have carried 53-46. Former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, though, has benefited from heavy spending from a PAC funded by his cousin, and a recent independent poll showed a very tight race.

Finally, we have an incumbent vs. incumbent battle in North Florida’s 2nd district between Republican Neal Dunn and Democrat Al Lawson. This new constituency is tough turf for Lawson at 55-44 Trump, and Dunn currently represents about twice as many residents here. And again, thanks to gerrymandering, the 7th in the Orlando area looks like an automatic flip for the GOP. The GOP is also well positioned to take the new 4th around Jacksonville.

Indiana: The 1st District in the northwestern corner of the state has been safely Democratic turf for generations, but while Biden would have prevailed 53-45 here, the area’s gradual shift to the right during the Trump era gives Republicans a big opening against freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. The incumbent is trying to fend off Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green, who would be the first African American to represent Indiana in Congress, in a battle that has attracted huge spending from outside groups on both sides.

Georgia: The biggest battle in the Peach State is the contest between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who flipped this seat in a famous 2021 special election, and former football star Herschel Walker. Georgia requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in order to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff, and Libertarian Chase Oliver’s presence on the ballot means this tight race could well go to a second round once again.

The race for governor is a rematch from the close 2018 election between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. However, most surveys show Kemp in strong shape this time around and positioned to win outright despite the candidacy of Libertarian Shane Hazel.

The only seriously contested House race in the state is the 2nd District in southwestern Georgia, a 55-44 Biden constituency where Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is trying to turn back Air Force veteran Chris West. However, while Republicans have spent months talking about taking down the 30-year incumbent, major GOP groups have stayed on the sidelines while Democrats have spent millions against West. There are no other candidates in the running, so this race will not be going to a runoff barring an exact tie. Republicans, meanwhile, should have no trouble flipping the 6th District in the Atlanta area thanks to their new gerrymander.

Two Republican incumbents who survived Trump-driven primary challenges, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr, are also seeking new four-year terms. Polls show them leading their respective Democratic opponents, state Rep. Bee Nguyen and state Sen. Jen Jordan, though they disagree on how far ahead the two Republicans are. A Libertarian is also competing in each contest.

New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is trying to fend off retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, a Republican who has ardently embraced the Big Lie, in a state that often swings wildly between the two parties, but no one agrees just how competitive this contest really is. Most polls show a tight race, but Bolduc’s would-be backers at the Senate Leadership Fund dramatically pulled out of the state weeks before Election Day in an apparent vote of no confidence. Other right-wing groups, though, have gotten involved since then, while Hassan’s allies at Senate Majority PAC never stopped treating this as competitive.

The 1st District in the eastern half of the state has long been one of the swingiest House seats in America, and this year’s expensive matchup pits Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas against Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump White House staffer who has eagerly embraced the Big Lie. The bluer 2nd in western and northern New Hampshire has been much quieter, though HMP took action in the final week of the campaign to aid Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster against her underfunded GOP foe, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns.

Virginia: Two Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave, 2nd District Rep. Elaine Luria and 7th District Rep. Abigail Spanberger, are engaged in competitive fights to hang on in a tough political climate. Luria, whose suburban Hampton Roads seat narrowly favored Biden, has emphasized the Jan. 6 attack in her contest against state Sen. Jen Kiggans, a Republican who voted for a $70 million “forensic audit” of the 2020 results.

Spanberger, meanwhile, is defending a dramatically redrawn seat that saw Biden’s margin of victory swell from 50-49 to 53-46 after a court-drawn map swapped out the Richmond suburbs for more Democratic areas near Washington, D.C. Spanberger’s opponent is Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, who made news for saying of pregnancies that result from rape, “[I]t's not something that's happening organically.”

Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, by contrast, is in stronger shape in the 10th District in Northern Virginia, but she still faces a well-funded challenge from Navy veteran Hung Cao. Cao released an internal poll in October showing him narrowly trailing Wexton in this 58-40 Biden seat, but that didn’t convince major GOP groups to get involved on his behalf.

7:30 PM ET

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

North Carolina: The main draw in the Tarheel State is the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr between far-right Rep. Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as chief justice of the state Supreme Court. Most polls show a small lead for Budd in a state where Republicans have won several tight elections over the last decade.

The most expensive House race in the state, meanwhile, is the battle for the open GOP-held 13th District in the Raleigh suburbs, another seat Biden would have narrowly taken. The GOP is all in for Bo Hines, a former college football player who has weak ties to the area, while Democrats are pulling for state Sen. Wiley Nickel.

There’s also a fight for the open, Democratic-held 1st District in inland northeastern North Carolina, but Republican primary voters jeopardized their chances by ignoring the multiple abuse allegations that have been leveled against 2020 nominee Sandy Smith and nominating her again. CLF, which tried to stop Smith from winning the primary, has bypassed this race along with the NRCC, but Democrats have continued to spend millions to support state Sen. Don Davis.

Ohio: The GOP has unexpectedly had to spend massive amounts of money to hold onto the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rob Portman, but Democrats still have a tough task in a longtime swing state that's moved hard to the right during the Trump era. The GOP nominee is venture capitalist J.D. Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author who has run a truly weak campaign, while Democrats are fielding Rep. Tim Ryan. Most polls show Vance with a small lead, but his allies are continuing to deploy money here instead of in less Trumpy states.

Team Blue is also hoping to unseat veteran Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in the Cincinnati based 1st District, which transformed from a 51-48 Trump seat to one that Biden would have won 53-45. The Democrats have nominated Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman in another very pricey House race.

Republicans, for their part, believed they’d have a strong shot at denying Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur a 21st term after they turned her reliably blue 9th District around Toledo into a 51-48 Trump constituency, but that was before they nominated QAnon ally J.R. Majewski. National Republicans abandoned Majewski in September after the AP reported that he'd lied about serving in Afghanistan, but Kaptur’s allies have continued to spend like he’s a threat.

Finally, there’s a spendy race in the open Democratic-held 13th, a 51-48 Biden seat in the Akron and Canton areas, between Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who served as a Women for Trump co-chair. Republicans have spent heavily to link Sykes, who is Black, to crime by citing her support for a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill that never became law.

8 PM ET

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (rest of state), Illinois, Kansas (Central Time Zone), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Eastern Time Zone), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (rest of state), New Jersey, North Dakota (Central Time Zone), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central Time Zone), Tennessee, Texas (Central Time Zone), Washington, D.C.

Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont won a tight 2018 race against Republican Bob Stefanowski, but most polls show Lamont well-positioned in this year’s rematch between the two wealthy candidates. Surveys also show Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal similarly situated against Leora Levy, who is Trump’s former ambassador to Chile.

The big contest in the Nutmeg State is in the 5th District in northwestern Connecticut, where Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes faces a tough fight against former state Sen. George Logan. Biden would have won 55-44 here, but both parties have dropped millions on this race since Labor Day.

Illinois: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his allies worked hard during the June primary to influence Republicans to nominate far-right state Sen. Darren Bailey instead of a candidate with a more appealing profile, and independent polls show the incumbent well ahead in this blue state. Still, conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein has continued to pump money into an uphill effort to beat the governor.

Democratic legislators, meanwhile, drew up a congressional map under which Biden would have carried 14 of the 17 seats, compared to 12 of the 18 existing districts (Illinois lost a seat after the 2020 census), but Team Blue still has several tough fights.

The most competitive race in the state is arguably the battle to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos in the 17th District, a north-central Illinois seat that shifted from 50-48 Trump to 53-45 Biden. Both sides have spent heavily in the contest between 2020 Republican nominee Esther Joy King, who came close to beating Bustos last time, and former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen, who would be the state’s first gay member of Congress.

Former Biden administration official Nikki Budzinski appears to be in better shape further to the south in the open 13th District, a GOP-held seat that dramatically transformed from 51-47 Trump to 54-43 Biden. Republican Regan Deering, whose family ran the agribusiness giant Archer-Daniels-Midland for more than 40 years, stepped up after Rep. Rodney Davis decided to wage an unsuccessful primary bid against far-right colleague Mary Miller in the 15th District rather than defend this unfavorable turf, but major GOP outside groups have sat on the sidelines. The DCCC also cut its planned spending a month ago in an optimistic sign for Budzinski, but HMP has continued to run ads here.

A trio of Democratic incumbents in the Chicago suburbs, though, are looking vulnerable in the final days of the race. Both HMP and CLF rushed in with ads in the final week in the 6th District, where Rep. Sean Casten faces Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau. The far-right Club for Growth, meanwhile, has spent over $1 million on a late attempt to help former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf take down 11th District Rep. Bill Foster. HMP, finally, began airing ads late in the race to aid 14th District Rep. Lauren Underwood against Kendall County Board Chair Scott Gryder. The most competitive of these seats is the 6th, which still went for Biden 55-44.

Kansas: Laura Kelly, who is the only Democratic governor running for re-election this year in a Trump state, faces a difficult battle against Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Complicating things for Schmidt, though, is the independent candidacy of ultra-conservative state Sen. Dennis Pyle. There have been very few polls here, though the DGA and RGA both spent here until the very end.

The contest for the 3rd District in the Kansas City suburbs, meanwhile, is a rematch between Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and former state GOP chair Amanda Adkins. Davids won their 2020 bout 54-44 as Biden was winning the seat by that same margin, but Republican legislators overrode Kelly’s veto and gerrymandered this seat into one Biden would have taken only 51-47. Limited polling has still had Davids ahead.

Maine: Democratic Gov. Janet Mills faces a high-profile challenge from her far-right predecessor, Paul LePage. While there have been few surveys released here, the ones we’ve seen have shown Mills with a decided advantage.

Over in northern Maine’s 2nd District, which Trump would have taken 52-46, Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is waging an expensive fight against the man he unseated in 2018, Republican Bruce Poliquin. The Pine Tree State uses instant runoff voting for congressional (but not state) elections, and independent Tiffany Bond’s presence on the ballot could keep either Golden or Poliquin from securing an outright majority. Officials say they’ll do any ranked choice tabulations the week after the election.

Maryland: Author and former nonprofit head Wes Moore should have no trouble beating far-right Del. Dan Cox in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Larry Hogan in heavily Democratic Maryland, a win that would make Moore only the third African American elected to lead any state.

There’s more drama in the rematch between 6th District Democratic Rep. David Trone, who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, and Republican state Del. Neil Parrott. Trone beat Parrott 59-39 last cycle as Biden was carrying the old version of the seat by a similar 61-38 spread, but the redrawn incarnation would have favored Biden only 54-44. However, no major outside groups have waded into the race for this district, which includes western Maryland and part of the D.C. area.

Massachusetts: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker’s decision not to seek a third term immediately made Massachusetts one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the country, and polls show Attorney General Maura Healey easily beating her Trumpist foe, former GOP state Rep. Geoff Diehl. Healey would be the first lesbian elected governor anywhere. None of the state's House races appear competitive.

Michigan: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and her allies have massively outspent her hard-right opponent, former conservative talk show host Tudor Dixon, who never quite locked down full-fledged financial backing from her wealthiest benefactors, the DeVos family. Polls have shown Dixon coming closer as Election Day nears, but most surveys still have Whitmer with the advantage in this swing state.

Both parties are also seriously contesting a trio of House races in a state where an independent redistricting commission drew the lines after decades of GOP gerrymanders. The most dramatic change came about in the 3rd District in the Grand Rapids area, which transformed from a 51-47 Trump constituency to one Biden would have carried 53-45. Democrats also got a bigger opening when former Trump administration official John Gibbs (with an assist from the DCCC) denied renomination to freshman Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. The Democrats are once again fielding Hillary Scholten, an attorney who lost a competitive 2020 battle against Meijer.

Over in the revamped 7th District in Lansing, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to fend off hardline state Sen. Tom Barrett in one of the most expensive House races in the nation for a seat that Biden very narrowly took. There’s another major battle next door in the new 8th around Flint and the Tri-Cities areas, where Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is defending a 50-48 Biden constituency. Kildee’s foe is Paul Junge, another Trump alum who lost to Slotkin in 2020 for the old 8th District―a seat that doesn’t overlap at all with this new district.

Two-time Republican Senate nominee John James, though, is in a strong position to flip the 10th in the Detroit suburbs, which is open because Democratic Rep. Andy Levin unsuccessfully ran against fellow incumbent Haley Stevens in the primary for the safer 11th District instead of running here. James narrowly lost this seat in 2020 against Democratic Sen. Gary Peters as Trump was barely winning it, but major Democratic groups haven’t spent money to help former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga. 

Finally, two statewide Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off a team of election deniers. Attorney General Dana Nessel is going up against Matthew DePerno, while Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faces Kristina Karamo.

New Jersey: Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski has a tough task ahead of him in his 7th District rematch against former state Senate Republican leader Tom Kean Jr., the son and namesake of a popular governor from the 1980s. Malinowski only turned back Kean 51-49 in 2020 even as Biden was prevailing 54-44, and the new congressional map slashed Biden’s margin in this North Jersey seat down to 51-47.

Three of Malinowski’s Democratic colleagues got much more favorable seats following redistricting, though a few could still be vulnerable in a sufficiently rough year for Team Blue. Rep. Andy Kim is competing against wealthy yacht manufacturer Bob Healey in South Jersey’s new 3rd District, which transformed from one of the closest seats in the nation into one that would have favored Biden 56-42. National groups have largely bypassed this seat, though a super PAC funded by Healey’s mother has spent millions.

Two North Jersey Democrats, 5th District Rep. Josh Gottheimer and 11th District Rep. Mikie Sherrill, are also favored in seats that Biden would have decisively carried. House Majority PAC and its allies at VoteVets recently began spending against their respective GOP foes, Frank Pallotta and Paul DeGroot, though Politico reported that this involvement came about because former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg wanted to "steer[] money" to both races after making large donations to HMP.

Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt had long looked secure in one of the reddest states in the nation, but he’s been on the receiving end of heavy spending by groups that want him gone. In a shocker, several polls have shown Stitt locked in a close race against state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, who left the GOP last year to challenge him as a Democrat. Stitt’s allies at the RGA are leaving nothing to chance as they got involved late with ads tying Hofmeister to unpopular national Democrats.

Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is home to one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation as Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and former TV personality Mehmet Oz face off to succeed Oz’s fellow Republican, retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. The contest to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is more one-sided, as far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano has run an underfunded and utterly disorganized campaign against Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

Meanwhile, two House Democrats, 7th District Rep. Susan Wild and 8th District Rep. Matt Cartwright, are competing in closely watched rematches against the Republicans they beat in 2020. Last time, Wild turned back Lisa Scheller 52-48 as Biden was winning her seat 52-47, but the new version of this Lehigh Valley district would have favored the president just 50-49. Cartwright also held off Jim Bognet 52-48 as Trump was prevailing 52-47. Redistricting made the new version of this Scranton/Wilkes-Barre seat a little bluer, but it still would have backed Trump 51-48.

Both parties are also heavily engaged to the west in the open 17th District, which Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb gave up to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. Democrats are fielding Iraq War veteran Chris DeIuzio while the GOP is running former Ross Town Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer in a suburban Pittsburgh constituency Biden would have taken 52-47.

Democratic state Rep. Summer Lee is more secure in the open 12th District around the city of Pittsburgh, but the contest for this 59-39 Biden seat attracted attention over the last month. Lee and the DCCC have run ads making it clear that her Republican foe, Plum Borough Councilman Mike Doyle, is not retiring Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle. The hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, which opposed Lee in the primary, also rushed in late with a $1 million general election campaign to sink her.

Rhode Island: Democrat Dan McKee was elevated from the lieutenant governor’s office to the top job last year when Gov. Gina Raimondo joined the Biden cabinet, and he remains the party’s standard-bearer following his tight win in the September primary. McKee’s opponent in this blue state is self-funding Republican Ashley Kalus, who has badly trailed in the few polls we’ve seen.

Things look far closer in the open 2nd District in the western part of the state, where both parties are spending millions in a constituency Biden would have taken 56-42. The Republicans landed a high-profile recruit in former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who lost competitive races to Raimondo in 2014 and 2018, for the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin. State Treasurer Seth Magaziner ended his own primary campaign against McKee to run here, but several fall polls show Fung tied or ahead.

Tennessee: Longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper decided to retire after Republican mapmakers cracked the city of Nashville to transform his 5th District from a 60-37 Biden seat into one Trump would have carried 55-43. Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell is hoping for an upset against Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, but both national parties are spending their money elsewhere.

Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored to claim a third term against Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman who came close to unseating Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 before embarking on a failed presidential run.

Republicans, who gerrymandered the congressional map to safeguard suburban districts that had been moving to the left, are also looking to score a trio of victories in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that lurched hard towards Trump in 2020.

Team Red’s top target is the 15th District around McAllen, a 51-48 Trump constituency that became open when Democratic Rep. Vicente González decided to run in the more favorable 34th after fellow Democrat Filemon Vela announced his retirement. The GOP is fielding 2020 nominee Monica de la Cruz, who came unexpectedly close to beating González, while the Democratic candidate is businesswoman Michelle Vallejo. González isn’t the only Democrat pessimistic here, though, as neither the DCCC nor HMP have answered the millions that the GOP has spent here.

The 28th District in Laredo pits Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Democrat who survived a tight primary challenge in May, against former Ted Cruz aide Cassy Garcia. The race for this 53-46 Biden constituency has attracted heavy spending from both sides, and Republicans have been only too happy to highlight a still-unexplained January FBI raid on Cuellar's home and campaign headquarters.

Finally, the 34th around Brownsville hosts an incumbent vs. incumbent match between González and Mayra Flores, a Republican who won a June special election for the old version of this seat after Vela decided to hasten his planned departure from Congress by resigning early. Flores represents three times as many residents of the new district as González, but this 57-42 Biden constituency is considerably bluer than the version Flores flipped months ago. Outside groups are spending millions for their respective incumbents.

8:30 PM ET

Arkansas: Republicans secured their hold on all four of the state’s House seats by splitting up Little Rock's Black community across multiple districts, and the GOP should have no trouble holding all its statewide offices. That includes the open governorship, which former Trump aide Sarah Huckabee Sanders is poised to win.

9 PM ET

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (rest of state), Louisiana, Michigan (rest of state), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (rest of state), South Dakota (rest of state), Texas (rest of state), Wisconsin, Wyoming

Arizona: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is going up against Blake Masters, a protege of conservative mega donor Peter Thiel, in his quest for a full six-year term. Prominent Republican super PACs axed millions in planned spending in September as surveys showed Masters in bad shape, but other organizations have filled in the void as Master’s prospects have improved.

Republicans have also nominated ardent election deniers for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state, which are the three offices involved in certifying results in the Grand Canyon State. The battle to succeed termed-out Gov. Doug Ducey is a duel between his fellow Republican, former local TV anchor Kari Lake, and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and most recent surveys give Lake a small edge.

The race to replace Hobbs, meanwhile, pits GOP state Rep. Mark Finchem against Democrat Adrian Fontes, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as Maricopa County recorder. Finally, the contest to succeed termed-out Attorney General Mark Brnovich pits yet another Big Lie advocate, Republican prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh, against former Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes.

Three House members also face competitive races after the Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission overhauled their districts. The most vulnerable is moderate Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran, who is trying to fend off Navy SEAL veteran Eli Crane in the sprawling 2nd District in the northeastern part of the state. While O'Halleran looked like a goner after he wound up in a seat that would have backed Trump 53-45, both parties’ decision to spend here in the final weeks indicates that he still has a chance.

Another late-breaking race is in the 1st District in the Phoenix suburbs, which narrowly voted for Biden. Republican Rep. David Schweikert spent most of the cycle as the decisive favorite against Democrat Jevin Hodge, who would be Arizona’s first Black member of Congress. HMP, though, rushed in with an ad campaign in the final weeks hitting the congressman over the ethics violations that overshadowed Schweikert in 2020, and his allies at CLF have responded with ads of their own.

Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton is also defending the 4th District, another Phoenix area seat that supported Biden 54-44, against restaurant owner Kelly Cooper. CLF, though, unsuccessfully tried to stop Cooper from getting nominated, and it never responded to Democratic spending highlighting his ties to extremists.

The situation is the reverse in the Tucson-based 6th District, where Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick isn’t seeking re-election in a seat that would have voted for Biden by the narrowest of margins. CLF got the nominee it wanted, former Ducey aide Juan Ciscomani, while Democratic groups have triaged former state Sen. Kirsten Engel.

Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet faces a strong challenge from Republican self-funder Joe O'Dea, but most recent polls show the incumbent establishing a firm lead in what’s become a Democratic-friendly state. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis is in even better shape against University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, who is the GOP’s only statewide elected official.

Things are more dicey in the 8th District, a brand-new seat in the northern Denver suburbs created thanks to reapportionment that would have backed Biden 51-46. Both parties have devoted millions to the battle between Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo and Republican state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, but even a mid-October Caraveo internal showed her narrowly trailing. National Democrats have also spent some money to support state Sen. Brittany Pettersen in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter in the neighboring 7th, but this is much friendlier turf at 56-42 Biden.

Iowa: Seven-term Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley faces the most competitive re-election fight of his career, but retired Navy Adm. Mike Franken is still the underdog in what’s become a very tough state for Democrats. A mid-October poll from Iowa’s most prominent pollster, Ann Selzer, showed Grassley only narrowly ahead, but both parties have continued to direct their resources elsewhere. (Selzer’s survey released Saturday showed Grassley ahead by a wider 53-41.)

The most prominent House race in the state pits 3rd District Rep. Cindy Axne, who is the only Democrat in the Hawkeye State’s delegation, against Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn for a southwestern Iowa seat that Trump very narrowly won. Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson also face credible challenges from their respective Democratic foes, state Rep. Christina Bohannan and state Sen. Liz Mathis. However, all the major outside spending in both races has been on the GOP side.

Louisiana: There’s no question that Republicans, who passed a new gerrymander over Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ veto, will keep their firm hold over 5 of the state’s 6 congressional delegations, but GOP Rep. Clay Higgins does face a credible intra-party foe in the all-party primary for the 3rd District.

Attorney Holden Hoggatt is arguing that Higgins has done a poor job securing federal aid for his hurricane-ravaged constituents in the southwestern corner of the state, and he’s also highlighting allegations that Higgins threatened his first wife with a gun. The congressman, who has been a reliable spreader of conspiracy theories, has Trump’s backing, while Hoggatt has some prominent former local politicians from both parties in his corner. Six other candidates are on the ballot, and a Dec. 10 runoff would take place if no one earns a majority.

Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is going up against Republican Scott Jensen, a former state senator who has circulated a litany of COVID conspiracy theories. Most polls have shown the far-better funded Walz ahead, though this is another race where reliable numbers are scarce, and Republicans showed up with a burst of very late outside spending.

The 2nd District in the Twin Cities suburbs, meanwhile, is an expensive second bout between Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and Marine veteran Tyler Kistner. Craig won 48-46 as Biden was carrying her seat by a 7-point margin, and court-supervised redistricting barely made any changes here.

The 1st District to the south also is a rematch between Republican Rep. Brad Finstad and the Democrat he beat in an August special election, former Hormel CEO Jeff Ettinger. Finstad turned back Ettinger just 51-47 in a constituency Trump took 54-44, but both parties are behaving like Finstad is on track for an easy win.

Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon is also trying to fend off election denier Kim Crockett in a contest that national Democrats are heavily involved in as Republicans have largely sat on the sidelines. Each side, though, is spending big in the race between Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison and Jim Schultz, who is the rare Republican attorney general candidate who acknowledges Biden won in 2020.

Nebraska: The biggest race in the state is the contest for the 2nd District in the Omaha area, which would have supported Biden 52-46. Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who claimed victory two years ago in a similar constituency, this time is going up against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who would be Nebraska’s first Latino member.

The neighboring 1st District around Lincoln is a return engagement between Republican Rep. Mike Flood and the Democrat he turned back in a June special, state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks. Flood only held on 53-47 in a 54-43 Trump seat, but just like in Minnesota’s 1st, both parties aren't expecting a repeat performance.

New Mexico: Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is going up against former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, a Republican who held her distant relative, Ben Ray Lujan, to an unexpectedly small 52-46 win in the 2020 Senate race. Recent surveys from reliable firms have given the governor a mid-single-digit lead.

Democratic mapmakers sought to defeat far-right Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by transforming her southern New Mexico constituency from a 55-43 Trump seat to one that Biden would have carried 52-46. That's resulted in a very competitive race with her Democratic opponent, Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez. HMP also launched a small buy in the final week to safeguard Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez in a 54-44 Biden seat in the northern part of the state.

New York: Democrat Kathy Hochul assumed the governorship last summer after scandal-ridden incumbent Andrew Cuomo resigned, and she faces an unexpectedly tough battle to keep her new job against GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. Almost every reliable poll shows Hochul with the lead in a place where Republicans haven’t prevailed statewide since 2002, though some surveys have things close.

Democrats also are facing some difficult contests for the House in part because New York’s highest court threw out the map Team Blue passed. We’ll begin on Long Island, where each party launched an expensive ad campaign in the final week in the open 4th District. Biden would have won 57-42 here, but Democrats took huge losses in this area in last year’s local elections. They're running former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen to succeed her political ally, retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice, while the GOP nominee is Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito.

HMP has also devoted millions to safeguard the neighboring 3rd, a 54-45 Biden seat that Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi gave up to wage a failed primary bid against Hochul, but the GOP never responded in kind. The contest between DNC member Robert Zimmerman and 2020 GOP nominee George Santos already has made history, though, as the first congressional race between two gay major-party nominees.

The race to succeed Zeldin on eastern Long Island’s 1st District, meanwhile, pits Democratic Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming against longtime local GOP politico Nick LaLota. Biden would have narrowly carried this seat, but outside groups have bypassed it. The 2nd, by contrast, is a rematch between freshman Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino and 2020 opponent Jackie Gordon. However, while their last bout attracted huge amounts of spending, there’s been less energy this time for this 50-49 Trump seat.

Another 2020 rematch is taking place on Staten Island’s 11th District between Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and Max Rose, the moderate Democrat she unseated 53-47. Rose hoped to be running in a much friendlier seat this time, but the new map only reduced Trump’s margin from 55-44 to 53-46. Both contenders are strong fundraisers, but national groups have also skipped this one.

Where they are getting involved, though, is in a trio of constituencies in and around the Hudson Valley north of New York City. Republicans badly want to deny re-election to DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th District, which would have favored Biden 55-44. Democratic groups in turn came in during the final weeks to help Maloney fend off Assemblyman Mike Lawler.

The 18th District next door is being defended by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, who won an August special in the old 19th District in a massive upset. The 18th, at 53-45, is considerably more Democratic than the seat Ryan represents now, but no one thinks re-election is a sure thing against GOP Assemblyman Colin Schmitt.

The open Democratic-held 19th features a battle between Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, the Republican Ryan beat over the summer, and attorney Josh Riley. None of Molinaro’s home county is included in this new 51-47 Biden seat, though his failed campaign and 2018 run against Cuomo make him a familiar name.

There’s another pricey fight over in the Syracuse-based 22nd District, a 53-45 Biden seat where GOP Rep. John Katko is not seeking re-election. National Republicans tried to sink businessman Brandon Williams in the primary, but they’re nonetheless very much in his corner against Navy veteran Francis Conole.

Finally, there’s a late-developing race in Rochester’s 25th District. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle long looked safe in this 59-39 Biden seat against La'Ron Singletary, a former police chief who resigned in 2020 after he tried to conceal video footage of police suffocating a Black man to death after officers placed a hood over his face and held him to the ground, but Democrats launched a small buy in the final days.

Wisconsin: The Badger State is home to two of the most competitive races in the whole country as Republican Sen. Ron Johnson tries to hold off Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as Democratic Gov. Tony Evers goes up against self-funder Tim Michels. There’s also an important race for attorney general as Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul faces Republican ​​Eric Toney, a Fond du Lac County district attorney who has bragged, “I am prosecuting more election fraud than anyone else in Wisconsin.”

The only House race in the state that’s at all interesting is the 3rd District in southwestern Wisconsin, where longtime Democratic Rep. Ron Kind is retiring. National Democrats, though, have redirected resources from this 51-47 Trump seat, where Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff is trying to hold on against 2020 GOP nominee Derrick Van Orden.

10 PM ET

Idaho (Mountain Time Zone), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (Mountain Time Zone), Utah

Montana: The 2020 census gave Big Sky Country a second House seat for the first time in three decades, and Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale’s decision to run in the safely red 2nd in western Montana means there’s an open-seat race for the brand-new 1st to the east. The contest for this 52-45 Trump district pits a Rosendale predecessor, Republican Ryan Zinke, against Democratic attorney Monica Tranel, who has emphasized the many scandals that dogged Zinke during his time as Trump’s first secretary of the interior.

Nevada: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is trying to turn back former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt in one of the top Senate races in the nation. Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, who beat Laxalt in 2018, is involved in a tough battle of his own against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

Last year, Democrats made the risky decision to make Rep. Dina Titus’ once-safe 1st District competitive in order to help two fellow Democrats also in the Las Vegas area, 3rd District Rep. Susie Lee and 4th District incumbent Steven Horsford. Now all three face serious fights in seats that Biden would have carried from 7 to 9 points.

Titus is going up against Army veteran Mark Robertson in her first competitive general election in a decade, while Lee is slugging it out against attorney April Becker. Horsford’s race against Air Force veteran Sam Peters hasn’t attracted spending from national GOP groups, though super PACs funded by local millionaire Robert Bigelow have dumped millions here.

Team Blue is also spending big in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, where Democrat Cisco Aguilar is hoping to beat Jim Marchant, one of the most prominent election deniers in the country. The race for attorney general pits Democratic incumbent Aaron Ford against another Republican conspiracy theorist, Sigal Chattah.

Utah: Hard-right Sen. Mike Lee faces an unexpectedly tough battle in this dark-red state from independent Evan McMullin, who took a strong third in Utah as an anti-Trump conservative in the 2016 presidential election. Democrats opted to endorse McMullin, who says he won’t caucus with either party in the Senate, rather than run their own candidate, but he still faces an uphill climb.

11 PM ET

California, Oregon (rest of state), Washington

California: The Golden State’s independent redistricting commission once again scrambled California’s congressional map, and there are a wealth of high-profile House races here.

We’ll start with three districts in the sprawling Central Valley that Biden took with 55% of the vote but where Democrats often struggle with midterm turnout. Both parties have delivered millions to the battle in the 13th District between Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray and agribusinessman John Duarte. An even more expensive battle is unfolding to the south in the 22nd between Republican Rep. David Valadao, who voted for impeachment and may be the most vulnerable GOP House incumbent in the country, and Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas.

Outside groups, meanwhile, have bypassed the 9th District, where Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is seeking re-election in a seat that’s largely new to him, but he still faces a notable opponent in San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti. There's a fourth district in the area as well that bears eyeing, though this time, at least, no one is acting like Democratic Rep. Jim Costa is in trouble against little known foe Michael Maher in the 21st, which would have favored Biden 59-39. However, Costa came shockingly close to losing in 2014 in another seemingly dry contest.

We’ll venture next to the 47th District in the longtime GOP stronghold of Orange County, where Republicans have made it a top priority to defeat prominent progressive Rep. Katie Porter. Porter, who is one of the top fundraisers in the entire chamber, is defending a constituency that would have backed Biden 55-43, but the GOP is hoping that the suburban voters who revolted against Trump will return to the fold with former county party chair Scott Baugh.

GOP Rep. Michelle Steel faces a well-funded campaign next door in the new 45th from community college trustee Jay Chen, but national Republicans are the only ones dumping money into this 52-46 Biden seat. Another Orange County Republican congresswoman, Young Kim, is going up against physician Asif Mahmood in the new 40th, which Biden would have won just 50-48 and where there’s been considerably less outside spending.

Over in the 49th north of San Diego, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin faces a tough rematch against San Juan Capistrano Councilman Brian Maryott in a seat that barely changed in redistricting. Levin turned back Maryott 53-47 as Biden was prevailing 55-43, and both parties are treating this as a major priority.

The situation is a bit different in the 27th District north of Los Angeles, where Democrat Christy Smith is trying to avenge her 333-vote defeat to Republican Rep. Mike Garcia. This new constituency, which Biden would have won 55-43, is a couple points to the left of Garcia’s old seat, but Democratic groups haven’t been spending here.

A few other seats are also on the radar. Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley long looked safe in the 26th, a suburban L.A. constituency where Biden scored 59%, but her allies at EMILY’s List came in late to help her against Republican Matt Jacobs.

On the other side, veteran Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, who has represented a safely red seat for a decade, now faces a spirited challenge from former federal prosecutor Will Rollins in the 41st in Riverside County, but neither party has prioritized this 50-49 Trump seat. Democratic physician Kermit Jones has also attracted attention in his bid against Republican Assemblyman Kevin Kiley in the sprawling 3rd District in northern California, but this 50-48 Trump constituency may be too much of a lift this year.

Finally, there are a few safely blue seats that saw a pair of Democrats advance out of June's top-two primary. Up in the Bay Area, Assemblyman Kevin Mullin has endorsements from both retiring Rep. Jackie Speier and Speaker Nancy Pelosi against San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa. Back down in L.A., Rep. Jimmy Gomez is trying to avoid a repeat of his unexpectedly close 53-47 win against 2020 rival David Kim. Finally in the neighboring 37th, state Sen. Sydney Kamlager has the backing of incumbent Karen Bass, who is running for mayor, against former City Councilwoman Jan Perry.

Oregon: Democrats have held the governorship since 1987, but the GOP is hoping that frustration with termed-out Democratic Gov. Kate Brown will propel former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan to victory over Democrat Tina Kotek, the former speaker who would join Healey as America’s first lesbian governor. Further complicating things is the independent candidacy of former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a longtime conservative Democrat who appears to be harming Kotek more than Drazan.

Democrats also face tough battles in a trio of House seats that Biden carried. The biggest source of concern is in the 5th District in central Oregon, where former city manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner toppled conservative Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary and is now up against former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Biden would have won 53-44 here, but Team Blue has redirected resources away from this contest as the GOP has continued to throw in money.

Over in the 4th along the state’s southern coast, Democratic Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle is campaigning against 2020 Republican nominee Alek Skarlatos. Skarlatos held retiring Rep. Peter DeFazio to a 52-46 win last time, but Democratic mapmakers extended Biden’s margin from 51-47 all the way to 55-42. Finally in the 6th, a brand-new seat Salem created by reapportionment that would have also backed Biden 55-42, there’s another closely watched fight between Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas and businessman Mike Erickson.

Washington: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray faces an unexpectedly tough contest against Republican Tiffany Smiley in this blue state, though even surveys from GOP pollsters still largely give the incumbent the edge. The biggest national groups on both sides, though, have not been involved.

Further down the ticket, Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is locked in a costly battle against Republican Matt Larkin in the 8th District, a suburban Seattle constituency Biden would have won 52-45. National Democrats also have made a late offensive in 3rd to support Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against far-right Republican Joe Kent, who toppled incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary; Trump would have won this southwestern Washington seat 51-47.

12 AM ET

Alaska (Alaska Time Zone), Hawaii

Alaska: The Last Frontier will conduct its general elections through instant-runoff voting, though these tabulations won’t take place until Nov. 23.

The Senate battle is a closely-watched intra-GOP showdown between incumbent Lisa Murkowski, who has the support of the Senate leadership, and Trump’s candidate, former state cabinet official Kelly Tshibaka. Major GOP super PACs have spent heavily to help Murkowski, though her detractors are hoping enough conservatives will follow Trump’s lead in a state he took 53-43. Democrat Pat Chesbro and Buzz Kelley, a Republican who dropped out and endorsed Tshibaka in September, are also on the ballot.

The race for governor pits hardline Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy against both his independent predecessor, Bill Walker, and former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara. Another Republican, former Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce, is also in, but his campaign was barely a factor even before harassment allegations against him became public. Both Walker and Gara have urged their supporters to rank the other one second in order to beat Dunleavy.

Finally, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is trying to keep the House seat she won in an August special election against Sarah Palin. Both Palin and another Republican, Nick Begich III, are competing again, along with Libertarian Chris Bye, but Murkowski and several other notable Republicans are supporting Peltola. GOP outside groups have also bypassed this contest despite Alaska's decided red lean.

1 AM ET

Alaska (rest of state)