Mondaire Jones returns home for a comeback bid

Posted on July 6, 2023 by Jeff Singer

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones announced on Wednesday that he'd seek the Democratic nomination to take on freshman Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in New York's 17th District, a lower Hudson Valley constituency that Joe Biden carried 54-44 in 2020. Jones, who unsuccessfully ran in New York City last year because of a strange set of redistricting-induced circumstances, used his intro video to emphasize his local roots in Rockland County and record securing funds for the area during his one term in D.C.

Before Jones can focus on reclaiming this seat, though, he has to get through what could be an expensive primary against local school board member Liz Gereghty, the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Gereghty, who launched her campaign in mid-May, announced this week that she'd raised $400,000 though the end of last month. The field also includes former Bedford Town Supervisor MaryAnn Carr, but it remains to be seen if she'll have the resources to run a strong campaign.

In the 2020 election cycle, Jones sought what was, at the time, a safely blue seat held by Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey. Lowey, however, retired soon after Jones launched his campaign, and he won a competitive, multi-way battle for the Democratic nomination. Jones made history with his comfortable victory that fall by becoming the first openly gay black member of Congress, a distinction he shared with fellow New York Democrat Ritchie Torres. (It was only after she died in 1996 that news accounts identified legendary Texas Rep. Barbara Jordan as a lesbian; she never discussed her sexuality during her lifetime.)

Two years later, Jones seemed to be on track for another easy win, but everything changed after New York's highest court rejected state's new Democratic-drawn congressional map and substituted in its own lines. Fellow Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who represented a neighboring district and also chaired the DCCC, infuriated Jones and many local Democrats when he decided to seek reelection in the 17th District rather than defend the 18th, a slightly more competitive seat that included the bulk of his current constituents.

Jones decided to avoid a primary by campaigning for the open 10th District, an open seat based in Brooklyn and lower Manhattan that was far from his home turf, though he offered an explanation for his change of venue. "This is the birthplace of the LGBTQ+ rights movement," he tweeted, "Since long before the Stonewall Uprising, queer people of color have sought refuge within its borders."

But while Jones enjoyed the support of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he had a tough time in a primary dominated by politicians with far stronger ties to New York City. Former federal prosecutor Dan Goldman, a self-funder who served as House Democrats' lead counsel during Donald Trump's first impeachment, massively outspent the rest of the field and secured the influential support of the New York Times. Goldman ultimately beat Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou in a 25-24 squeaker, while Jones finished third with 18%.

Maloney, for his part, acknowledged months before his own general election that "there are a lot of strong feelings" among Democrats who felt he'd sent Jones packing. "I think I could've handled it better," he admitted. He'd soon have more reasons for regret: One local progressive leader would recount to Slate that volunteers canvassing for Maloney would be asked, "Isn't he the guy that pushed Mondaire out of this district?" Maloney ended up losing to Lawler 50.3-49.7 at the same time that Republican Lee Zeldin was beating Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul 52-48 in the 17th, according to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux. (Ironically, Democrat Pat Ryan held the 18th District that Maloney left behind.)

Jones soon made it clear that he was interested in returning to his home base to challenge Lawler, saying in December, "I've also learned my lesson, and that is home for me is in the Hudson Valley." (The Daily Beast reported in February that Jones hadn't ruled out waging a primary against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but there was little indication he'd ever seriously considered the idea.)

The once and perhaps future congressman continues to express strong feelings about how the midterm elections went down. "I never imagined that I would wake up one day and would have to decide against primarying a member of the Democratic Party at a time when we were seeing an assault on our democracy," he told News12 Westchester on Wednesday. "To that extent, yeah, I do regret not being the Democratic nominee last cycle."

Gereghty's team, though, made it clear they'd use his campaign in New York City against him. "Liz Whitmer Gereghty has lived in the Hudson Valley for 20 years," her campaign said in a statement, "and the reason you'll never see her moving to Brooklyn to chase a congressional seat is because the only place and only people she wants to represent are right here in the Hudson Valley."

The fate of Texas’ impeached attorney general rests in hands of 31 state senators―including his wife

Posted on May 30, 2023 (Updated May 31, 2023) by Jeff Singer

The Texas State Senate on Monday passed a resolution declaring that its trial for Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom the state House impeached over corruption allegations two days before, must begin by Aug. 28. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who like Paxton and every other statewide official is a Republican, is tasked with choosing the starting date and presiding over the tribunal. It would take two-thirds of the 31-member chamber, where the GOP holds a 19-12 majority, to convict Paxton and thus bar him from ever holding state office again.

Paxton will remain suspended until a verdict is reached, and Assistant Attorney General Brent Webster, who joined his boss in trying to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 win, automatically assumed the office. Gov. Greg Abbott has not yet said if he’d select someone to take over from Webster, a key Paxton ally who used his first day on the job to praise the scandal-ridden attorney general in an email to staffers.

If the Senate removed Paxton, though, election law professor Quinn Yeargain writes in Guaranteed Republics that Abbott would be tasked with picking a replacement, and that this person would require the support of two-thirds of the Senate in order to be confirmed. Yeargain adds that a November 2024 special election would take place for the final two years of Paxton’s term should he be convicted.

This could be a consequential pick should Abbott get to make it, as political observers point out that whoever holds the powerful post of attorney general could be the frontrunner in 2026 to succeed the governor in the event that he doesn’t seek a fourth term. (Abbott himself used this office as a springboard to the governorship in 2014.)

Yeargain, however, notes that, because Republicans are two seats shy of the two-thirds supermajority needed to unilaterally confirm a new attorney general, Democrats could try to pressure Abbott to pick someone who wouldn’t run next year. If the Senate failed to oust Paxton, though, he’d be free to run for reelection or higher office three years down the line.

It also remains to be seen if two GOP senators, Angela Paxton and Bryan Hughes, will act as jurors, though the Houston Chronicle says that two-thirds of the total body would need to vote for conviction whether or not there are any recusals. Angela Paxton is Ken Paxton’s wife, and she’s remained his close ally even though he allegedly convinced a wealthy ally named Nate Paul to hire the woman that the attorney general was having an affair with. The House’s articles of impeachment, meanwhile, accuse Paxton of utilizing Hughes as a “straw requestor” for a legal opinion used to aid Paul.

Patrick indicated that neither senator would be required to step aside, saying, “I will be presiding over that case and the senators—all 31 senators—will have a vote.” Kenneth Williams, who is a professor of criminal procedure, told the Associated Press that there wasn’t any way to prevent Angela Paxton from taking part in the proceedings, saying, “It’s up to her ethical standards and compass, basically.”

Until a week ago, it didn’t look like Ken Paxton was in any immediate danger of losing the office he was reelected to twice while under felony indictment. The attorney general was charged with securities fraud all the way back in 2015, but that trial still has yet to be scheduled. In November of 2020, the AP reported that the FBI was probing him in an unrelated matter for allegedly using his office to help Paul in exchange for favors. Four of Paxton’s former top aides also filed a whistleblower lawsuit claiming that he’d retaliated against them for helping this investigation; their suit also alleges that Webster took part in this retaliation.

Paxton and his former personnel reached a tentative settlement in February that was contingent on the Texas legislature approving $3.3 million in state funds to the quartet, but it soon became apparent that House Speaker Dade Phelan and other fellow Republicans weren’t keen to pay this. And while things seemed to stall, the House General Investigating Committee actually quietly began its own report into Paxton’s alleged misbehavior.

Paxton made news Tuesday when he called for Phelan to resign for presiding over his chamber “in a state of apparent debilitating intoxication,” but all that was overshadowed the next day when the committee unexpectedly released its report reiterating many of the allegations related to Paul. The committee, which recommended impeachment the next day, went on to say, “We cannot over-emphasize the fact that, but for Paxton’s own request for a taxpayer-funded settlement . . . Paxton would not be facing impeachment."

On Saturday, the GOP-dominated House was presented with 20 counts of impeachment. Most of the charges accused Paxton of illegally using his powers to help Paul, though some said he’d tried to interfere in the securities fraud case. Donald Trump, who endorsed the attorney general in last year’s primary, tried to pressure Republicans with a TruthSocial message threatening to “fight” anyone who voted for impeachment, while one Republican member of the General Investigating Committee claimed that Paxton himself had contacted representatives “threatening them with political consequences in their next election.”

Ultimately, though, impeachment passed 121-23, with 60 Republicans joining 61 Democrats in the affirmative. All 23 noes came from Republicans, with one member from each party voting present: The lone Democrat to do this was Harold Dutton, who infuriated his party earlier this month by backing an anti-trans bill.

Paxton characteristically responded by writing, “Phelan’s coalition of Democrats and liberal Republicans is now in lockstep with the Biden Administration, the abortion industry, anti-gun zealots, and woke corporations to sabotage my work as Attorney General.” He also predicted he’d be acquitted by the Senate where, as Yeargain writes, Angela Paxton would likely become the first person in American history to have the chance to vote on an impeached spouse’s conviction.

Washington’s Democratic governor will not seek re-election to post his party has held since 1985

Posted on May 1, 2023 by Jeff Singer

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee declared Monday that he wouldn’t seek what would have been a historic fourth term as chief executive of the Evergreen State, a move that will set off a battle to succeed him next year. Under state election law all the candidates will run on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries, and the top two contenders, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. Republicans haven’t won this office since John Spellman prevailed in 1980, though Inslee himself only narrowly prevailed the last time this post was open in 2012.

Inslee’s departure ends an electoral career that’s seen both plenty of triumphs and some big setbacks. The Democrat first won office in 1988 when he pulled off a close victory for the state House, and he sought a promotion four years later by running for the open 4th Congressional District in the rural central part of the state. Inslee managed to advance to the general election by edging out Democratic state Sen. Jim Jesernig 23-22 in the blanket primary, a precursor to the modern top-two primary, but he faced a tough fight in the fall against Republican colleague Doc Hastings.

Inslee won 51-49 at the same time that, according to analyst Kiernan Park-Egan, George H.W. Bush was carrying the seat 43-35 over Bill Clinton (independent Ross Perot secured another 22%), but he had little time to rest up. Hastings came back for a rematch in 1994 and emphasized the incumbent’s support for the Clinton administration’s assault weapons ban, a vote the Democrat would acknowledge hurt him at home. The GOP wave hit Washington hard and Hastings unseated Inslee 53-47 at the same time that Speaker Tom Foley was losing re-election to George Nethercutt in the neighboring 5th District, and both constituencies have remained in GOP hands ever since. Another victor that year was Republican Rick White, who denied 1st District Rep. Maria Cantwell a second term in the 1st District near Seattle.

But while that disastrous cycle ended plenty of Democratic careers, Inslee was determined that his would not be one of them. The ousted congressman, who soon moved to the Puget Sound community of Bainbridge Island, announced a 1996 campaign for governor and said of his recent defeat, “What it showed was when you vote your convictions over political expediency, on occasion it's not good for your career.” Inslee, though, struggled to gain traction in a field that included the eventual winner, Democratic King County Executive Gary Locke, as well as Seattle Mayor Norm Rice, and he finished fifth in the blanket primary with just 10%.

Inslee soon set his sights on a 1998 House comeback bid against White in a constituency that, per Park-Egan, had supported Clinton 51-37 two years before. Inslee, who had no intra-party opposition this time, was in for a difficult fight in a seat both parties identified as a major battleground, and White’s 50-44 lead in the blanket primary seemed to foreshadow another uphill race for the Democrat.

White, though, wasn’t as strong as he appeared to be. The incumbent had just gone through a high-profile divorce, and he feared that the third-party candidacy of social conservative Bruce Craswell would cost him some much-needed support. Inslee, meanwhile, ran ads blasting the Republicans for waging a long impeachment battle against Clinton, which proved to be a compelling argument that year. Inslee got back to the House by winning 49.8-44.1, with Craswell taking the balance.

Inslee’s second stint in Washington, D.C., went far better for him than his first, and he never failed to win re-election by double digits. The Democrat, however, decided to give up his secure seat in 2012 for another campaign for governor even though retiring incumbent Christine Gregoire’s weak approval ratings presented a big opening for the GOP. Republicans quickly consolidated around Attorney General Rob McKenna, who had scored a 59-41 victory in 2008 during an awful year for his party, while Inslee also had no serious intra-party opposition.

Most polls through July showed McKenna in the lead but Inslee, who resigned his seat to focus on his statewide bid, worked hard to tie his opponent to unpopular national Republicans. The Democrat, in one debate, responded to the attorney general’s declaration that he didn’t want Washington to be a place where a third of residents were on Medicare by saying, “Remember when Mitt Romney talked about the 47% that just weren’t sort of part of our family in a sense? And now my opponent says that this one out of three somehow should not have insurance.” McKenna worked to win over enough Obama voters to prevail, but he wasn’t able to take quite enough. Inslee instead scored a 52-48 victory at a time when the president was carrying Washington 56-41.

The new governor got a big setback before he took office when two renegade Democrats in the state Senate, Tim Sheldon and Rodney Tom, put the GOP minority in charge of the chamber even though Democrats nominally held a 26-23 edge. Inslee himself appeared to be a tempting target for 2016 after several polls showed him with an unimpressive approval rating, but potentially strong GOP foes like McKenna and Rep. Dave Reichert demurred. The Republican who eventually stepped forward, Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant, struggled with fundraising, and the governor beat him 54-46 as Hillary Clinton was scoring a 53-37 victory here.

Inslee had a better second term, especially after a 2017 special election put his party in control of the state Senate at long last, and in 2019 he joined a crowded presidential field. The governor’s would-be successors, though, found themselves waiting for months to see if he’d turn around and seek a third term at home, which is exactly what happened when Inslee ended his White House quest in the face of poor polling. Inslee went on to become the first three-term governor since Dan Evans secured re-election in 1972 after he scored an easy 57-43 victory over far-right foe Loren Culp, a former small-town police chief who refused to recognize his landslide loss.

Another disastrous Republican candidate from last year is mulling a comeback, this time in Michigan

Posted on April 10, 2023 by Jeff Singer

The latest Michigan Republican to express interest in the state’s open Senate race is former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who ran a chaotic 2022 campaign for governor even before he was ejected from the ballot over fraudulent signatures. But Craig, who went on to wage a hopeless write-in campaign last year, remains characteristically undeterred, telling The Detroit News he’s giving a Senate effort a “real critical look” but has no timeline to make up his mind. Several more disastrous Republican candidates from last cycle are also eyeing Senate runs in other states, though unlike Craig, they were at least able to make the ballot before losing.

Craig was the frontrunner in the summer of 2021 when he entered the GOP primary to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, though his initial announcement that he was forming an exploratory committee―an entity that doesn't actually exist under Michigan law―was an early omen about the problems ahead. Indeed, the former chief’s bid would experience several major shakeups, including the departure of two different campaign managers in less than four months.

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Craig, who also made news for his heavy spending, got some more unwelcome headlines in April of 2022 when Rep. Jack Bergman announced he was switching his endorsement to self-funding businessman Perry Johnson; Bergman complained that his first choice ignored "campaigning in Northern Michigan and the [Upper Peninsula] in favor of a self proclaimed Detroit-centric approach.” Still, polls showed Craig well ahead in the primary as he sought to become the Wolverine State’s first Black governor.

Everything changed in May, though, when election authorities disqualified Craig, Johnson, and three other contenders from the ballot after they fell victim to a huge fraudulent signature scandal and failed to turn in enough valid petitions. Both Craig and Johnson both unsuccessfully sued to get reinstated, but only the former chief decided to forge ahead with a write-in campaign to win the GOP nod.

Craig blustered, “I'm going to win,” but he became an afterthought even before far-right radio commentator Tudor Dixon emerged as the new frontrunner. Craig’s write-in effort ended up taking all of 2% of the vote, though he was far from willing to back Dixon after she secured the nomination that once looked his for the taking. He instead endorsed U.S. Taxpayers Party contender Donna Brandenburg, who had also been ejected from the Republican primary, saying that Dixon’s extreme opposition to abortion rights went too far even for him. Whitmer soon won 54-44, with Brandenburg in fourth with just 0.4%.

Craig’s newest campaign flirtations come at a time when no major Republicans have stepped up to run for the Senate seat held by retiring Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow. The only notable declared contender is state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, who also failed to make the primary ballot in 2020 when she tried to challenge Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin. (Dixon herself didn’t shut the door on a Senate bid right after Stabenow announced her departure in January, but we’ve heard little from her over the following three months.) Slotkin continues to have the Democratic side to herself, though actor Hill Harper reportedly plans to run and state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is publicly considering herself.

Click here to stop Republicans from snatching the Senate!

The Daily Kos Elections hour-by-hour guide to election night 2022

Posted on November 5, 2022 (Updated November 9, 2022) by Jeff Singer

Election night is almost here—Tuesday!—and we have a lot of exciting races in store across the country for Senate, governor, and House. There are also several contests for attorney general and secretary of state in swing states that could play a big role in future years in determining how elections are overseen and certified.

What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's key elections. At the top of this post is our map showing poll closing times across the country. All times are Eastern, though we also have versions of this map for each of the other U.S. time zones.

You can also find the 2020 presidential results for the nation’s new congressional districts here, as well as the results for the lines that were used in the 2020 elections. (Note that many incumbents are running in districts with different numbers than the ones they represent now.) For interactive maps of the new districts, check out Dave's Redistricting App.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races and more after the first polls close at 6 PM ET on election night, so please join us at Daily Kos Elections for our complete coverage.

6 PM ET

Indiana (Eastern Time Zone), and Kentucky (Eastern Time Zone)

The first hour of election night will be pretty quiet. Indiana Sen. Todd Young and his fellow Republican, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, are both secure, and there are no competitive House races in the eastern parts of either state.

7 PM ET

Florida (Eastern Time Zone), Indiana (rest of state), Kentucky (rest of state), Georgia, New Hampshire (most towns), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

• Florida: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has massively outraised his Democratic rival, former Rep. Charlie Crist, and it will be a true surprise if he struggles in a state that has been moving to the right in recent years. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, faces considerably better-funded opposition from Democratic Rep. Val Demings, but polls show the incumbent in good shape.

There aren’t many competitive House races because DeSantis successfully pressured the GOP legislature to aggressively gerrymander the map to create 20 districts that Donald Trump would have won versus just eight that Joe Biden would have carried: Under the old map, Trump would have won just 15 seats to Biden’s 12 (Florida gained a district thanks to reapportionment).

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the House GOP’s main super PAC, has been spending heavily in the 27th District to help freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar fend off state Sen. Annette Taddeo in a Miami-area constituency that Trump would have narrowly carried. However, House Majority PAC (HMP) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which have enjoyed access to considerably less money than their GOP rival, have not been airing ads here or in any other Florida contests.

The newly created 15th District in the Tampa and northeastern suburbs is also worth watching at just 51-48 Trump, but there hasn’t been any serious outside spending on either side. The contest pits former Republican Secretary of State Laurel Lee against Democrat Alan Cohn, a former local TV anchor who was Team Blue’s 2020 nominee, against now-Rep. Scott Franklin (who is running in the 18th).

The St. Petersburg-based 13th District, where Crist resigned over the summer to focus on his statewide bid, has also looked like a likely GOP pickup for 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna ever since the new map transformed it from a seat Biden would have taken 51-47 to one that Trump would have carried 53-46. Former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, though, has benefited from heavy spending from a PAC funded by his cousin, and a recent independent poll showed a very tight race.

Finally, we have an incumbent vs. incumbent battle in North Florida’s 2nd district between Republican Neal Dunn and Democrat Al Lawson. This new constituency is tough turf for Lawson at 55-44 Trump, and Dunn currently represents about twice as many residents here. And again, thanks to gerrymandering, the 7th in the Orlando area looks like an automatic flip for the GOP. The GOP is also well positioned to take the new 4th around Jacksonville.

• Indiana: The 1st District in the northwestern corner of the state has been safely Democratic turf for generations, but while Biden would have prevailed 53-45 here, the area’s gradual shift to the right during the Trump era gives Republicans a big opening against freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. The incumbent is trying to fend off Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green, who would be the first African American to represent Indiana in Congress, in a battle that has attracted huge spending from outside groups on both sides.

• Georgia: The biggest battle in the Peach State is the contest between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who flipped this seat in a famous 2021 special election, and former football star Herschel Walker. Georgia requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in order to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff, and Libertarian Chase Oliver’s presence on the ballot means this tight race could well go to a second round once again.

The race for governor is a rematch from the close 2018 election between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. However, most surveys show Kemp in strong shape this time around and positioned to win outright despite the candidacy of Libertarian Shane Hazel.

The only seriously contested House race in the state is the 2nd District in southwestern Georgia, a 55-44 Biden constituency where Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is trying to turn back Air Force veteran Chris West. However, while Republicans have spent months talking about taking down the 30-year incumbent, major GOP groups have stayed on the sidelines while Democrats have spent millions against West. There are no other candidates in the running, so this race will not be going to a runoff barring an exact tie. Republicans, meanwhile, should have no trouble flipping the 6th District in the Atlanta area thanks to their new gerrymander.

Two Republican incumbents who survived Trump-driven primary challenges, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr, are also seeking new four-year terms. Polls show them leading their respective Democratic opponents, state Rep. Bee Nguyen and state Sen. Jen Jordan, though they disagree on how far ahead the two Republicans are. A Libertarian is also competing in each contest.

• New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is trying to fend off retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, a Republican who has ardently embraced the Big Lie, in a state that often swings wildly between the two parties, but no one agrees just how competitive this contest really is. Most polls show a tight race, but Bolduc’s would-be backers at the Senate Leadership Fund dramatically pulled out of the state weeks before Election Day in an apparent vote of no confidence. Other right-wing groups, though, have gotten involved since then, while Hassan’s allies at Senate Majority PAC never stopped treating this as competitive.

The 1st District in the eastern half of the state has long been one of the swingiest House seats in America, and this year’s expensive matchup pits Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas against Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump White House staffer who has eagerly embraced the Big Lie. The bluer 2nd in western and northern New Hampshire has been much quieter, though HMP took action in the final week of the campaign to aid Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster against her underfunded GOP foe, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns.

• Virginia: Two Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave, 2nd District Rep. Elaine Luria and 7th District Rep. Abigail Spanberger, are engaged in competitive fights to hang on in a tough political climate. Luria, whose suburban Hampton Roads seat narrowly favored Biden, has emphasized the Jan. 6 attack in her contest against state Sen. Jen Kiggans, a Republican who voted for a $70 million “forensic audit” of the 2020 results.

Spanberger, meanwhile, is defending a dramatically redrawn seat that saw Biden’s margin of victory swell from 50-49 to 53-46 after a court-drawn map swapped out the Richmond suburbs for more Democratic areas near Washington, D.C. Spanberger’s opponent is Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, who made news for saying of pregnancies that result from rape, “[I]t's not something that's happening organically.”

Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, by contrast, is in stronger shape in the 10th District in Northern Virginia, but she still faces a well-funded challenge from Navy veteran Hung Cao. Cao released an internal poll in October showing him narrowly trailing Wexton in this 58-40 Biden seat, but that didn’t convince major GOP groups to get involved on his behalf.

7:30 PM ET

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

• North Carolina: The main draw in the Tarheel State is the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr between far-right Rep. Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as chief justice of the state Supreme Court. Most polls show a small lead for Budd in a state where Republicans have won several tight elections over the last decade.

The most expensive House race in the state, meanwhile, is the battle for the open GOP-held 13th District in the Raleigh suburbs, another seat Biden would have narrowly taken. The GOP is all in for Bo Hines, a former college football player who has weak ties to the area, while Democrats are pulling for state Sen. Wiley Nickel.

There’s also a fight for the open, Democratic-held 1st District in inland northeastern North Carolina, but Republican primary voters jeopardized their chances by ignoring the multiple abuse allegations that have been leveled against 2020 nominee Sandy Smith and nominating her again. CLF, which tried to stop Smith from winning the primary, has bypassed this race along with the NRCC, but Democrats have continued to spend millions to support state Sen. Don Davis.

• Ohio: The GOP has unexpectedly had to spend massive amounts of money to hold onto the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rob Portman, but Democrats still have a tough task in a longtime swing state that's moved hard to the right during the Trump era. The GOP nominee is venture capitalist J.D. Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author who has run a truly weak campaign, while Democrats are fielding Rep. Tim Ryan. Most polls show Vance with a small lead, but his allies are continuing to deploy money here instead of in less Trumpy states.

Team Blue is also hoping to unseat veteran Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in the Cincinnati based 1st District, which transformed from a 51-48 Trump seat to one that Biden would have won 53-45. The Democrats have nominated Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman in another very pricey House race.

Republicans, for their part, believed they’d have a strong shot at denying Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur a 21st term after they turned her reliably blue 9th District around Toledo into a 51-48 Trump constituency, but that was before they nominated QAnon ally J.R. Majewski. National Republicans abandoned Majewski in September after the AP reported that he'd lied about serving in Afghanistan, but Kaptur’s allies have continued to spend like he’s a threat.

Finally, there’s a spendy race in the open Democratic-held 13th, a 51-48 Biden seat in the Akron and Canton areas, between Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who served as a Women for Trump co-chair. Republicans have spent heavily to link Sykes, who is Black, to crime by citing her support for a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill that never became law.

8 PM ET

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (rest of state), Illinois, Kansas (Central Time Zone), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Eastern Time Zone), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (rest of state), New Jersey, North Dakota (Central Time Zone), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central Time Zone), Tennessee, Texas (Central Time Zone), Washington, D.C.

• Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont won a tight 2018 race against Republican Bob Stefanowski, but most polls show Lamont well-positioned in this year’s rematch between the two wealthy candidates. Surveys also show Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal similarly situated against Leora Levy, who is Trump’s former ambassador to Chile.

The big contest in the Nutmeg State is in the 5th District in northwestern Connecticut, where Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes faces a tough fight against former state Sen. George Logan. Biden would have won 55-44 here, but both parties have dropped millions on this race since Labor Day.

• Illinois: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his allies worked hard during the June primary to influence Republicans to nominate far-right state Sen. Darren Bailey instead of a candidate with a more appealing profile, and independent polls show the incumbent well ahead in this blue state. Still, conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein has continued to pump money into an uphill effort to beat the governor.

Democratic legislators, meanwhile, drew up a congressional map under which Biden would have carried 14 of the 17 seats, compared to 12 of the 18 existing districts (Illinois lost a seat after the 2020 census), but Team Blue still has several tough fights.

The most competitive race in the state is arguably the battle to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos in the 17th District, a north-central Illinois seat that shifted from 50-48 Trump to 53-45 Biden. Both sides have spent heavily in the contest between 2020 Republican nominee Esther Joy King, who came close to beating Bustos last time, and former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen, who would be the state’s first gay member of Congress.

Former Biden administration official Nikki Budzinski appears to be in better shape further to the south in the open 13th District, a GOP-held seat that dramatically transformed from 51-47 Trump to 54-43 Biden. Republican Regan Deering, whose family ran the agribusiness giant Archer-Daniels-Midland for more than 40 years, stepped up after Rep. Rodney Davis decided to wage an unsuccessful primary bid against far-right colleague Mary Miller in the 15th District rather than defend this unfavorable turf, but major GOP outside groups have sat on the sidelines. The DCCC also cut its planned spending a month ago in an optimistic sign for Budzinski, but HMP has continued to run ads here.

A trio of Democratic incumbents in the Chicago suburbs, though, are looking vulnerable in the final days of the race. Both HMP and CLF rushed in with ads in the final week in the 6th District, where Rep. Sean Casten faces Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau. The far-right Club for Growth, meanwhile, has spent over $1 million on a late attempt to help former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf take down 11th District Rep. Bill Foster. HMP, finally, began airing ads late in the race to aid 14th District Rep. Lauren Underwood against Kendall County Board Chair Scott Gryder. The most competitive of these seats is the 6th, which still went for Biden 55-44.

• Kansas: Laura Kelly, who is the only Democratic governor running for re-election this year in a Trump state, faces a difficult battle against Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Complicating things for Schmidt, though, is the independent candidacy of ultra-conservative state Sen. Dennis Pyle. There have been very few polls here, though the DGA and RGA both spent here until the very end.

The contest for the 3rd District in the Kansas City suburbs, meanwhile, is a rematch between Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and former state GOP chair Amanda Adkins. Davids won their 2020 bout 54-44 as Biden was winning the seat by that same margin, but Republican legislators overrode Kelly’s veto and gerrymandered this seat into one Biden would have taken only 51-47. Limited polling has still had Davids ahead.

• Maine: Democratic Gov. Janet Mills faces a high-profile challenge from her far-right predecessor, Paul LePage. While there have been few surveys released here, the ones we’ve seen have shown Mills with a decided advantage.

Over in northern Maine’s 2nd District, which Trump would have taken 52-46, Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is waging an expensive fight against the man he unseated in 2018, Republican Bruce Poliquin. The Pine Tree State uses instant runoff voting for congressional (but not state) elections, and independent Tiffany Bond’s presence on the ballot could keep either Golden or Poliquin from securing an outright majority. Officials say they’ll do any ranked choice tabulations the week after the election.

• Maryland: Author and former nonprofit head Wes Moore should have no trouble beating far-right Del. Dan Cox in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Larry Hogan in heavily Democratic Maryland, a win that would make Moore only the third African American elected to lead any state.

There’s more drama in the rematch between 6th District Democratic Rep. David Trone, who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, and Republican state Del. Neil Parrott. Trone beat Parrott 59-39 last cycle as Biden was carrying the old version of the seat by a similar 61-38 spread, but the redrawn incarnation would have favored Biden only 54-44. However, no major outside groups have waded into the race for this district, which includes western Maryland and part of the D.C. area.

• Massachusetts: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker’s decision not to seek a third term immediately made Massachusetts one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the country, and polls show Attorney General Maura Healey easily beating her Trumpist foe, former GOP state Rep. Geoff Diehl. Healey would be the first lesbian elected governor anywhere. None of the state's House races appear competitive.

• Michigan: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and her allies have massively outspent her hard-right opponent, former conservative talk show host Tudor Dixon, who never quite locked down full-fledged financial backing from her wealthiest benefactors, the DeVos family. Polls have shown Dixon coming closer as Election Day nears, but most surveys still have Whitmer with the advantage in this swing state.

Both parties are also seriously contesting a trio of House races in a state where an independent redistricting commission drew the lines after decades of GOP gerrymanders. The most dramatic change came about in the 3rd District in the Grand Rapids area, which transformed from a 51-47 Trump constituency to one Biden would have carried 53-45. Democrats also got a bigger opening when former Trump administration official John Gibbs (with an assist from the DCCC) denied renomination to freshman Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. The Democrats are once again fielding Hillary Scholten, an attorney who lost a competitive 2020 battle against Meijer.

Over in the revamped 7th District in Lansing, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to fend off hardline state Sen. Tom Barrett in one of the most expensive House races in the nation for a seat that Biden very narrowly took. There’s another major battle next door in the new 8th around Flint and the Tri-Cities areas, where Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is defending a 50-48 Biden constituency. Kildee’s foe is Paul Junge, another Trump alum who lost to Slotkin in 2020 for the old 8th District―a seat that doesn’t overlap at all with this new district.

Two-time Republican Senate nominee John James, though, is in a strong position to flip the 10th in the Detroit suburbs, which is open because Democratic Rep. Andy Levin unsuccessfully ran against fellow incumbent Haley Stevens in the primary for the safer 11th District instead of running here. James narrowly lost this seat in 2020 against Democratic Sen. Gary Peters as Trump was barely winning it, but major Democratic groups haven’t spent money to help former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga.

Finally, two statewide Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off a team of election deniers. Attorney General Dana Nessel is going up against Matthew DePerno, while Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faces Kristina Karamo.

• New Jersey: Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski has a tough task ahead of him in his 7th District rematch against former state Senate Republican leader Tom Kean Jr., the son and namesake of a popular governor from the 1980s. Malinowski only turned back Kean 51-49 in 2020 even as Biden was prevailing 54-44, and the new congressional map slashed Biden’s margin in this North Jersey seat down to 51-47.

Three of Malinowski’s Democratic colleagues got much more favorable seats following redistricting, though a few could still be vulnerable in a sufficiently rough year for Team Blue. Rep. Andy Kim is competing against wealthy yacht manufacturer Bob Healey in South Jersey’s new 3rd District, which transformed from one of the closest seats in the nation into one that would have favored Biden 56-42. National groups have largely bypassed this seat, though a super PAC funded by Healey’s mother has spent millions.

Two North Jersey Democrats, 5th District Rep. Josh Gottheimer and 11th District Rep. Mikie Sherrill, are also favored in seats that Biden would have decisively carried. House Majority PAC and its allies at VoteVets recently began spending against their respective GOP foes, Frank Pallotta and Paul DeGroot, though Politico reported that this involvement came about because former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg wanted to "steer[] money" to both races after making large donations to HMP.

• Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt had long looked secure in one of the reddest states in the nation, but he’s been on the receiving end of heavy spending by groups that want him gone. In a shocker, several polls have shown Stitt locked in a close race against state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, who left the GOP last year to challenge him as a Democrat. Stitt’s allies at the RGA are leaving nothing to chance as they got involved late with ads tying Hofmeister to unpopular national Democrats.

• Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is home to one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation as Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and former TV personality Mehmet Oz face off to succeed Oz’s fellow Republican, retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. The contest to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is more one-sided, as far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano has run an underfunded and utterly disorganized campaign against Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

Meanwhile, two House Democrats, 7th District Rep. Susan Wild and 8th District Rep. Matt Cartwright, are competing in closely watched rematches against the Republicans they beat in 2020. Last time, Wild turned back Lisa Scheller 52-48 as Biden was winning her seat 52-47, but the new version of this Lehigh Valley district would have favored the president just 50-49. Cartwright also held off Jim Bognet 52-48 as Trump was prevailing 52-47. Redistricting made the new version of this Scranton/Wilkes-Barre seat a little bluer, but it still would have backed Trump 51-48.

Both parties are also heavily engaged to the west in the open 17th District, which Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb gave up to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. Democrats are fielding Iraq War veteran Chris DeIuzio while the GOP is running former Ross Town Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer in a suburban Pittsburgh constituency Biden would have taken 52-47.

Democratic state Rep. Summer Lee is more secure in the open 12th District around the city of Pittsburgh, but the contest for this 59-39 Biden seat attracted attention over the last month. Lee and the DCCC have run ads making it clear that her Republican foe, Plum Borough Councilman Mike Doyle, is not retiring Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle. The hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, which opposed Lee in the primary, also rushed in late with a $1 million general election campaign to sink her.

• Rhode Island: Democrat Dan McKee was elevated from the lieutenant governor’s office to the top job last year when Gov. Gina Raimondo joined the Biden cabinet, and he remains the party’s standard-bearer following his tight win in the September primary. McKee’s opponent in this blue state is self-funding Republican Ashley Kalus, who has badly trailed in the few polls we’ve seen.

Things look far closer in the open 2nd District in the western part of the state, where both parties are spending millions in a constituency Biden would have taken 56-42. The Republicans landed a high-profile recruit in former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who lost competitive races to Raimondo in 2014 and 2018, for the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin. State Treasurer Seth Magaziner ended his own primary campaign against McKee to run here, but several fall polls show Fung tied or ahead.

• Tennessee: Longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper decided to retire after Republican mapmakers cracked the city of Nashville to transform his 5th District from a 60-37 Biden seat into one Trump would have carried 55-43. Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell is hoping for an upset against Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, but both national parties are spending their money elsewhere.

• Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored to claim a third term against Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman who came close to unseating Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 before embarking on a failed presidential run.

Republicans, who gerrymandered the congressional map to safeguard suburban districts that had been moving to the left, are also looking to score a trio of victories in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that lurched hard towards Trump in 2020.

Team Red’s top target is the 15th District around McAllen, a 51-48 Trump constituency that became open when Democratic Rep. Vicente González decided to run in the more favorable 34th after fellow Democrat Filemon Vela announced his retirement. The GOP is fielding 2020 nominee Monica de la Cruz, who came unexpectedly close to beating González, while the Democratic candidate is businesswoman Michelle Vallejo. González isn’t the only Democrat pessimistic here, though, as neither the DCCC nor HMP have answered the millions that the GOP has spent here.

The 28th District in Laredo pits Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Democrat who survived a tight primary challenge in May, against former Ted Cruz aide Cassy Garcia. The race for this 53-46 Biden constituency has attracted heavy spending from both sides, and Republicans have been only too happy to highlight a still-unexplained January FBI raid on Cuellar's home and campaign headquarters.

Finally, the 34th around Brownsville hosts an incumbent vs. incumbent match between González and Mayra Flores, a Republican who won a June special election for the old version of this seat after Vela decided to hasten his planned departure from Congress by resigning early. Flores represents three times as many residents of the new district as González, but this 57-42 Biden constituency is considerably bluer than the version Flores flipped months ago. Outside groups are spending millions for their respective incumbents.

8:30 PM ET

• Arkansas: Republicans secured their hold on all four of the state’s House seats by splitting up Little Rock's Black community across multiple districts, and the GOP should have no trouble holding all its statewide offices. That includes the open governorship, which former Trump aide Sarah Huckabee Sanders is poised to win.

9 PM ET

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (rest of state), Louisiana, Michigan (rest of state), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (rest of state), South Dakota (rest of state), Texas (rest of state), Wisconsin, Wyoming

• Arizona: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is going up against Blake Masters, a protege of conservative mega donor Peter Thiel, in his quest for a full six-year term. Prominent Republican super PACs axed millions in planned spending in September as surveys showed Masters in bad shape, but other organizations have filled in the void as Master’s prospects have improved.

Republicans have also nominated ardent election deniers for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state, which are the three offices involved in certifying results in the Grand Canyon State. The battle to succeed termed-out Gov. Doug Ducey is a duel between his fellow Republican, former local TV anchor Kari Lake, and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and most recent surveys give Lake a small edge.

The race to replace Hobbs, meanwhile, pits GOP state Rep. Mark Finchem against Democrat Adrian Fontes, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as Maricopa County recorder. Finally, the contest to succeed termed-out Attorney General Mark Brnovich pits yet another Big Lie advocate, Republican prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh, against former Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes.

Three House members also face competitive races after the Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission overhauled their districts. The most vulnerable is moderate Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran, who is trying to fend off Navy SEAL veteran Eli Crane in the sprawling 2nd District in the northeastern part of the state. While O'Halleran looked like a goner after he wound up in a seat that would have backed Trump 53-45, both parties’ decision to spend here in the final weeks indicates that he still has a chance.

Another late-breaking race is in the 1st District in the Phoenix suburbs, which narrowly voted for Biden. Republican Rep. David Schweikert spent most of the cycle as the decisive favorite against Democrat Jevin Hodge, who would be Arizona’s first Black member of Congress. HMP, though, rushed in with an ad campaign in the final weeks hitting the congressman over the ethics violations that overshadowed Schweikert in 2020, and his allies at CLF have responded with ads of their own.

Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton is also defending the 4th District, another Phoenix area seat that supported Biden 54-44, against restaurant owner Kelly Cooper. CLF, though, unsuccessfully tried to stop Cooper from getting nominated, and it never responded to Democratic spending highlighting his ties to extremists.

The situation is the reverse in the Tucson-based 6th District, where Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick isn’t seeking re-election in a seat that would have voted for Biden by the narrowest of margins. CLF got the nominee it wanted, former Ducey aide Juan Ciscomani, while Democratic groups have triaged former state Sen. Kirsten Engel.

• Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet faces a strong challenge from Republican self-funder Joe O'Dea, but most recent polls show the incumbent establishing a firm lead in what’s become a Democratic-friendly state. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis is in even better shape against University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, who is the GOP’s only statewide elected official.

Things are more dicey in the 8th District, a brand-new seat in the northern Denver suburbs created thanks to reapportionment that would have backed Biden 51-46. Both parties have devoted millions to the battle between Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo and Republican state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, but even a mid-October Caraveo internal showed her narrowly trailing. National Democrats have also spent some money to support state Sen. Brittany Pettersen in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter in the neighboring 7th, but this is much friendlier turf at 56-42 Biden.

• Iowa: Seven-term Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley faces the most competitive re-election fight of his career, but retired Navy Adm. Mike Franken is still the underdog in what’s become a very tough state for Democrats. A mid-October poll from Iowa’s most prominent pollster, Ann Selzer, showed Grassley only narrowly ahead, but both parties have continued to direct their resources elsewhere. (Selzer’s survey released Saturday showed Grassley ahead by a wider 53-41.)

The most prominent House race in the state pits 3rd District Rep. Cindy Axne, who is the only Democrat in the Hawkeye State’s delegation, against Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn for a southwestern Iowa seat that Trump very narrowly won. Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson also face credible challenges from their respective Democratic foes, state Rep. Christina Bohannan and state Sen. Liz Mathis. However, all the major outside spending in both races has been on the GOP side.

• Louisiana: There’s no question that Republicans, who passed a new gerrymander over Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ veto, will keep their firm hold over 5 of the state’s 6 congressional delegations, but GOP Rep. Clay Higgins does face a credible intra-party foe in the all-party primary for the 3rd District.

Attorney Holden Hoggatt is arguing that Higgins has done a poor job securing federal aid for his hurricane-ravaged constituents in the southwestern corner of the state, and he’s also highlighting allegations that Higgins threatened his first wife with a gun. The congressman, who has been a reliable spreader of conspiracy theories, has Trump’s backing, while Hoggatt has some prominent former local politicians from both parties in his corner. Six other candidates are on the ballot, and a Dec. 10 runoff would take place if no one earns a majority.

• Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is going up against Republican Scott Jensen, a former state senator who has circulated a litany of COVID conspiracy theories. Most polls have shown the far-better funded Walz ahead, though this is another race where reliable numbers are scarce, and Republicans showed up with a burst of very late outside spending.

The 2nd District in the Twin Cities suburbs, meanwhile, is an expensive second bout between Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and Marine veteran Tyler Kistner. Craig won 48-46 as Biden was carrying her seat by a 7-point margin, and court-supervised redistricting barely made any changes here.

The 1st District to the south also is a rematch between Republican Rep. Brad Finstad and the Democrat he beat in an August special election, former Hormel CEO Jeff Ettinger. Finstad turned back Ettinger just 51-47 in a constituency Trump took 54-44, but both parties are behaving like Finstad is on track for an easy win.

Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon is also trying to fend off election denier Kim Crockett in a contest that national Democrats are heavily involved in as Republicans have largely sat on the sidelines. Each side, though, is spending big in the race between Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison and Jim Schultz, who is the rare Republican attorney general candidate who acknowledges Biden won in 2020.

• Nebraska: The biggest race in the state is the contest for the 2nd District in the Omaha area, which would have supported Biden 52-46. Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who claimed victory two years ago in a similar constituency, this time is going up against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who would be Nebraska’s first Latino member.

The neighboring 1st District around Lincoln is a return engagement between Republican Rep. Mike Flood and the Democrat he turned back in a June special, state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks. Flood only held on 53-47 in a 54-43 Trump seat, but just like in Minnesota’s 1st, both parties aren't expecting a repeat performance.

• New Mexico: Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is going up against former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, a Republican who held her distant relative, Ben Ray Lujan, to an unexpectedly small 52-46 win in the 2020 Senate race. Recent surveys from reliable firms have given the governor a mid-single-digit lead.

Democratic mapmakers sought to defeat far-right Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by transforming her southern New Mexico constituency from a 55-43 Trump seat to one that Biden would have carried 52-46. That's resulted in a very competitive race with her Democratic opponent, Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez. HMP also launched a small buy in the final week to safeguard Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez in a 54-44 Biden seat in the northern part of the state.

• New York: Democrat Kathy Hochul assumed the governorship last summer after scandal-ridden incumbent Andrew Cuomo resigned, and she faces an unexpectedly tough battle to keep her new job against GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. Almost every reliable poll shows Hochul with the lead in a place where Republicans haven’t prevailed statewide since 2002, though some surveys have things close.

Democrats also are facing some difficult contests for the House in part because New York’s highest court threw out the map Team Blue passed. We’ll begin on Long Island, where each party launched an expensive ad campaign in the final week in the open 4th District. Biden would have won 57-42 here, but Democrats took huge losses in this area in last year’s local elections. They're running former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen to succeed her political ally, retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice, while the GOP nominee is Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito.

HMP has also devoted millions to safeguard the neighboring 3rd, a 54-45 Biden seat that Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi gave up to wage a failed primary bid against Hochul, but the GOP never responded in kind. The contest between DNC member Robert Zimmerman and 2020 GOP nominee George Santos already has made history, though, as the first congressional race between two gay major-party nominees.

The race to succeed Zeldin on eastern Long Island’s 1st District, meanwhile, pits Democratic Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming against longtime local GOP politico Nick LaLota. Biden would have narrowly carried this seat, but outside groups have bypassed it. The 2nd, by contrast, is a rematch between freshman Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino and 2020 opponent Jackie Gordon. However, while their last bout attracted huge amounts of spending, there’s been less energy this time for this 50-49 Trump seat.

Another 2020 rematch is taking place on Staten Island’s 11th District between Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and Max Rose, the moderate Democrat she unseated 53-47. Rose hoped to be running in a much friendlier seat this time, but the new map only reduced Trump’s margin from 55-44 to 53-46. Both contenders are strong fundraisers, but national groups have also skipped this one.

Where they are getting involved, though, is in a trio of constituencies in and around the Hudson Valley north of New York City. Republicans badly want to deny re-election to DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th District, which would have favored Biden 55-44. Democratic groups in turn came in during the final weeks to help Maloney fend off Assemblyman Mike Lawler.

The 18th District next door is being defended by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, who won an August special in the old 19th District in a massive upset. The 18th, at 53-45, is considerably more Democratic than the seat Ryan represents now, but no one thinks re-election is a sure thing against GOP Assemblyman Colin Schmitt.

The open Democratic-held 19th features a battle between Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, the Republican Ryan beat over the summer, and attorney Josh Riley. None of Molinaro’s home county is included in this new 51-47 Biden seat, though his failed campaign and 2018 run against Cuomo make him a familiar name.

There’s another pricey fight over in the Syracuse-based 22nd District, a 53-45 Biden seat where GOP Rep. John Katko is not seeking re-election. National Republicans tried to sink businessman Brandon Williams in the primary, but they’re nonetheless very much in his corner against Navy veteran Francis Conole.

Finally, there’s a late-developing race in Rochester’s 25th District. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle long looked safe in this 59-39 Biden seat against La'Ron Singletary, a former police chief who resigned in 2020 after he tried to conceal video footage of police suffocating a Black man to death after officers placed a hood over his face and held him to the ground, but Democrats launched a small buy in the final days.

• Wisconsin: The Badger State is home to two of the most competitive races in the whole country as Republican Sen. Ron Johnson tries to hold off Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as Democratic Gov. Tony Evers goes up against self-funder Tim Michels. There’s also an important race for attorney general as Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul faces Republican Eric Toney, a Fond du Lac County district attorney who has bragged, “I am prosecuting more election fraud than anyone else in Wisconsin.”

The only House race in the state that’s at all interesting is the 3rd District in southwestern Wisconsin, where longtime Democratic Rep. Ron Kind is retiring. National Democrats, though, have redirected resources from this 51-47 Trump seat, where Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff is trying to hold on against 2020 GOP nominee Derrick Van Orden.

10 PM ET

Idaho (Mountain Time Zone), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (Mountain Time Zone), Utah

• Montana: The 2020 census gave Big Sky Country a second House seat for the first time in three decades, and Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale’s decision to run in the safely red 2nd in western Montana means there’s an open-seat race for the brand-new 1st to the east. The contest for this 52-45 Trump district pits a Rosendale predecessor, Republican Ryan Zinke, against Democratic attorney Monica Tranel, who has emphasized the many scandals that dogged Zinke during his time as Trump’s first secretary of the interior.

• Nevada: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is trying to turn back former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt in one of the top Senate races in the nation. Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, who beat Laxalt in 2018, is involved in a tough battle of his own against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

Last year, Democrats made the risky decision to make Rep. Dina Titus’ once-safe 1st District competitive in order to help two fellow Democrats also in the Las Vegas area, 3rd District Rep. Susie Lee and 4th District incumbent Steven Horsford. Now all three face serious fights in seats that Biden would have carried from 7 to 9 points.

Titus is going up against Army veteran Mark Robertson in her first competitive general election in a decade, while Lee is slugging it out against attorney April Becker. Horsford’s race against Air Force veteran Sam Peters hasn’t attracted spending from national GOP groups, though super PACs funded by local millionaire Robert Bigelow have dumped millions here.

Team Blue is also spending big in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, where Democrat Cisco Aguilar is hoping to beat Jim Marchant, one of the most prominent election deniers in the country. The race for attorney general pits Democratic incumbent Aaron Ford against another Republican conspiracy theorist, Sigal Chattah.

• Utah: Hard-right Sen. Mike Lee faces an unexpectedly tough battle in this dark-red state from independent Evan McMullin, who took a strong third in Utah as an anti-Trump conservative in the 2016 presidential election. Democrats opted to endorse McMullin, who says he won’t caucus with either party in the Senate, rather than run their own candidate, but he still faces an uphill climb.

11 PM ET

California, Oregon (rest of state), Washington

• California: The Golden State’s independent redistricting commission once again scrambled California’s congressional map, and there are a wealth of high-profile House races here.

We’ll start with three districts in the sprawling Central Valley that Biden took with 55% of the vote but where Democrats often struggle with midterm turnout. Both parties have delivered millions to the battle in the 13th District between Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray and agribusinessman John Duarte. An even more expensive battle is unfolding to the south in the 22nd between Republican Rep. David Valadao, who voted for impeachment and may be the most vulnerable GOP House incumbent in the country, and Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas.

Outside groups, meanwhile, have bypassed the 9th District, where Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is seeking re-election in a seat that’s largely new to him, but he still faces a notable opponent in San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti. There's a fourth district in the area as well that bears eyeing, though this time, at least, no one is acting like Democratic Rep. Jim Costa is in trouble against little known foe Michael Maher in the 21st, which would have favored Biden 59-39. However, Costa came shockingly close to losing in 2014 in another seemingly dry contest.

We’ll venture next to the 47th District in the longtime GOP stronghold of Orange County, where Republicans have made it a top priority to defeat prominent progressive Rep. Katie Porter. Porter, who is one of the top fundraisers in the entire chamber, is defending a constituency that would have backed Biden 55-43, but the GOP is hoping that the suburban voters who revolted against Trump will return to the fold with former county party chair Scott Baugh.

GOP Rep. Michelle Steel faces a well-funded campaign next door in the new 45th from community college trustee Jay Chen, but national Republicans are the only ones dumping money into this 52-46 Biden seat. Another Orange County Republican congresswoman, Young Kim, is going up against physician Asif Mahmood in the new 40th, which Biden would have won just 50-48 and where there’s been considerably less outside spending.

Over in the 49th north of San Diego, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin faces a tough rematch against San Juan Capistrano Councilman Brian Maryott in a seat that barely changed in redistricting. Levin turned back Maryott 53-47 as Biden was prevailing 55-43, and both parties are treating this as a major priority.

The situation is a bit different in the 27th District north of Los Angeles, where Democrat Christy Smith is trying to avenge her 333-vote defeat to Republican Rep. Mike Garcia. This new constituency, which Biden would have won 55-43, is a couple points to the left of Garcia’s old seat, but Democratic groups haven’t been spending here.

A few other seats are also on the radar. Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley long looked safe in the 26th, a suburban L.A. constituency where Biden scored 59%, but her allies at EMILY’s List came in late to help her against Republican Matt Jacobs.

On the other side, veteran Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, who has represented a safely red seat for a decade, now faces a spirited challenge from former federal prosecutor Will Rollins in the 41st in Riverside County, but neither party has prioritized this 50-49 Trump seat. Democratic physician Kermit Jones has also attracted attention in his bid against Republican Assemblyman Kevin Kiley in the sprawling 3rd District in northern California, but this 50-48 Trump constituency may be too much of a lift this year.

Finally, there are a few safely blue seats that saw a pair of Democrats advance out of June's top-two primary. Up in the Bay Area, Assemblyman Kevin Mullin has endorsements from both retiring Rep. Jackie Speier and Speaker Nancy Pelosi against San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa. Back down in L.A., Rep. Jimmy Gomez is trying to avoid a repeat of his unexpectedly close 53-47 win against 2020 rival David Kim. Finally in the neighboring 37th, state Sen. Sydney Kamlager has the backing of incumbent Karen Bass, who is running for mayor, against former City Councilwoman Jan Perry.

• Oregon: Democrats have held the governorship since 1987, but the GOP is hoping that frustration with termed-out Democratic Gov. Kate Brown will propel former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan to victory over Democrat Tina Kotek, the former speaker who would join Healey as America’s first lesbian governor. Further complicating things is the independent candidacy of former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a longtime conservative Democrat who appears to be harming Kotek more than Drazan.

Democrats also face tough battles in a trio of House seats that Biden carried. The biggest source of concern is in the 5th District in central Oregon, where former city manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner toppled conservative Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary and is now up against former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Biden would have won 53-44 here, but Team Blue has redirected resources away from this contest as the GOP has continued to throw in money.

Over in the 4th along the state’s southern coast, Democratic Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle is campaigning against 2020 Republican nominee Alek Skarlatos. Skarlatos held retiring Rep. Peter DeFazio to a 52-46 win last time, but Democratic mapmakers extended Biden’s margin from 51-47 all the way to 55-42. Finally in the 6th, a brand-new seat Salem created by reapportionment that would have also backed Biden 55-42, there’s another closely watched fight between Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas and businessman Mike Erickson.

• Washington: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray faces an unexpectedly tough contest against Republican Tiffany Smiley in this blue state, though even surveys from GOP pollsters still largely give the incumbent the edge. The biggest national groups on both sides, though, have not been involved.

Further down the ticket, Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is locked in a costly battle against Republican Matt Larkin in the 8th District, a suburban Seattle constituency Biden would have won 52-45. National Democrats also have made a late offensive in 3rd to support Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against far-right Republican Joe Kent, who toppled incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary; Trump would have won this southwestern Washington seat 51-47.

12 AM ET

Alaska (Alaska Time Zone), Hawaii

• Alaska: The Last Frontier will conduct its general elections through instant-runoff voting, though these tabulations won’t take place until Nov. 23.

The Senate battle is a closely-watched intra-GOP showdown between incumbent Lisa Murkowski, who has the support of the Senate leadership, and Trump’s candidate, former state cabinet official Kelly Tshibaka. Major GOP super PACs have spent heavily to help Murkowski, though her detractors are hoping enough conservatives will follow Trump’s lead in a state he took 53-43. Democrat Pat Chesbro and Buzz Kelley, a Republican who dropped out and endorsed Tshibaka in September, are also on the ballot.

The race for governor pits hardline Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy against both his independent predecessor, Bill Walker, and former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara. Another Republican, former Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce, is also in, but his campaign was barely a factor even before harassment allegations against him became public. Both Walker and Gara have urged their supporters to rank the other one second in order to beat Dunleavy.

Finally, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is trying to keep the House seat she won in an August special election against Sarah Palin. Both Palin and another Republican, Nick Begich III, are competing again, along with Libertarian Chris Bye, but Murkowski and several other notable Republicans are supporting Peltola. GOP outside groups have also bypassed this contest despite Alaska's decided red lean.

1 AM ET

Alaska (rest of state)

Tuesday Primary Preview: Trump’s Big Lie slate aims to go three for three in key Arizona races

Posted on August 2, 2022 (Updated August 2, 2022) by Jeff Singer

Primary season is back in full force on Tuesday with major contests taking place in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Ohio voters will also go back to the polls for primaries for their state legislature, which were delayed because of redistricting litigation (primaries for the Buckeye State’s other offices took place as planned in early May).

Below you'll find our guide to all of the top contests, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall. And if you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.

Our live coverage will begin at 8 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections when polls close in Missouri as well as most of Kansas and Michigan. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states. Lastly, you can track the outcomes of each of these key races with our cheat sheet, which we’ll keep continuously updated throughout election night.

Ohio

Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.

Kansas

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time in the portion of the state located in the Central time zone, where virtually all Kansans live, and an hour later in four sparsely populated counties along the state's western border with Colorado. Individual counties have the option to keep their polls open an extra hour.

• KS Ballot (56-41 Trump): The Kansas Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that the state constitution protects abortion rights, but the Republican-dominated legislature has placed a proposed constitutional amendment on the primary ballot to change that. If a majority votes “yes” on Tuesday, then the legislature would have the power to end abortion in the state. A win for the “no” side, however, would keep the status quo intact. The only poll that’s been released was a mid-July survey from a Republican pollster on its own behalf that showed “yes” ahead 47-43.

Other Kansas races to watch: KS-AG (R)

Michigan

Polls close at 8 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where almost all Michiganders live, and an hour later in four small counties in the Upper Peninsula along the state's western border with Wisconsin.

• MI-Gov (R) (51-48 Biden): The Republican contest to face Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer transformed dramatically in late May when a massive signature fraud scandal prevented former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who had been the frontrunner, and four other candidates from appearing on the primary ballot. One of the five remaining contenders, conservative radio host Tudor Dixon, soon earned the backing of former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos and other members of her influential family, plus a last-second endorsement from Donald Trump. She’s posted leads in most recent polls, and national Democrats seem convinced that Dixon will advance as well, as they recently launched ads against her.

Self-funding businessman Kevin Rinke, who most surveys have had in second, has used his wealth to decisively outspend his rivals; Rinke has aired commercials faulting Dixon for accepting the help of DeVos, who resigned from Trump’s cabinet a day after the Jan. 6 attack. Another candidate, real estate agent Ryan Kelley, attracted national attention in June when the FBI arrested him on misdemeanor charges related to his role in the riot, but he’s struggled to turn that notoriety into votes. Chiropractor Garrett Soldano and pastor Ralph Rebandt are also running, while Craig is using his limited remaining funds in a long-shot effort to win the nomination through a write-in campaign.

• MI-03 (R) (53-45 Biden): Freshman Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of the 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump, faces primary opposition from a Trump-backed challenger, conservative commentator John Gibbs. The winner will go up against 2020 Democratic nominee Hillary Scholten, who faces no intra-party opposition for her second bid, in a Grand Rapids-based seat that Michigan's new independent redistricting commissions transformed from a 51-47 Trump seat to one Biden would have decisively carried.

Meijer and his allies have massively outspent Gibbs’ side, though the challenger got a late boost from Democrats who believe he’d be easier to beat in November. The DCCC launched an ad campaign in the final week declaring that Gibbs was "[h]andpicked by Trump to run for Congress" and saying he supports a "hardline against immigrants at the border and so-called 'patriotic education' in our schools." A pro-Meijer PAC quickly responded by running its own commercial arguing that Gibbs is actually the “handpicked candidate” of Nancy Pelosi.

• MI-08 (R) (50-48 Biden): Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is defending a seat in the Flint and Saginaw areas that’s a little more competitive than his current 5th District, and three Republicans are campaigning to face him.

The frontrunner is former Trump administration official Paul Junge, who lost to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin 51-47 in the old 8th District in 2020. (The old and new 8th Districts do not, however, overlap.) Former Grosse Pointe Shores Councilman Matthew Seely, like Junge, has self-funded almost all of his campaign, though Junge has spent far more. The third candidate, businesswoman Candice Miller, shares her name with a former congresswoman who used to represent a neighboring seat, but she’s reported raising nothing.

• MI-10 (D) (50-49 Trump): Five Democrats are competing to take on Army veteran John James, who was Team Red's Senate nominee in 2018 and 2020, in a redrawn seat in Detroit's northeastern suburbs that's open because of the incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchup in the 11th (see just below).

The most prominent contender is probably former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, who was the county’s longtime prosecutor. The best-funded candidate, though, is attorney Huwaida Arraf, while Warren Council member Angela Rogensues also has brought in more money than Marlinga. Sterling Heights City Council member Henry Yanez and former Macomb County Health Department head Rhonda Powell are also in, but they’ve each struggled with fundraising. James himself faces only minor opposition in his own primary.

• MI-11 (D) (59-39 Biden): The Democratic primary in the new 11th is a duel between a pair of sophomore House members, Haley Stevens and Andy Levin. Stevens' existing 11th District makes up 45% of this revamped seat in Detroit’s northern suburbs, while Levin’s 9th is home to another 25%. Retiring Rep. Brenda Lawrence represents the balance of this district, and she’s backing Stevens.

Stevens and Levin have largely voted the same way while in Congress, though while Levin has emphasized his support for Medicare for all and the Green New Deal, Stevens has portrayed herself as more pragmatic. The congresswoman has enjoyed a huge financial advantage over her colleague; outside groups, led by the hawkish pro-Israel organization AIPAC, have also outspent Levin’s allies by a lopsided margin. A recent independent poll showed Stevens ahead 58-31.

• MI-12 (D) (74-25 Biden): Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who is one of the most vocal progressives in the House, faces a prominent intra-party challenge from Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey. Two other candidates, former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson and Lathrup Village Mayor Kelly Garrett, are also running, but they haven’t attracted much attention. The three challengers, like a large portion of the electorate in this Detroit-based seat, are Black, while Tlaib is the daughter of Palestinian immigrants.

Tlaib, whose existing 13th District makes up 53% of the new 12th, has far outspent Winfrey, who has faulted Tlaib for casting a vote from the left against the Biden administration's infrastructure bill. However, a newly established group called Urban Empowerment Action PAC has gotten involved to help Winfrey, and it’s responsible for most of the more than $600,000 that’s been spent on her side.

• MI-13 (D) (74-25 Biden): A total of nine Democrats are competing in an extremely expensive contest to succeed retiring Rep. Brenda Lawrence, who is Michigan's only Black member of Congress, in a seat that includes part of Detroit and its southern suburbs. The top spender by far is state Rep. Shri Thanedar, who unsuccessfully sought Team Blue’s nomination for governor in 2018 before winning his current office two years later; Thanedar, who is originally from India, is the only candidate who isn’t Black.

State Sen. Adam Hollier, meanwhile, has benefited from over $6 million in outside spending promoting him and attacking Thanedar. Most of this has come from AIPAC, but VoteVets and the crypto-aligned Protect Our Future have also expended considerable sums. Lawrence, for her part, is supporting Michigan Civil Rights Commissioner Portia Roberson.

A recent independent poll showed Thanedar leading Roberson 22-17, with Hollier at 16. The field also includes hedge fund manager John Conyers III, who is the son and namesake of the late former congressman, and former Detroit General Counsel Sharon McPhail, who each clocked in with 7%, as well as Detroit School Board member Sherry Gay-Dagnogo and Teach for America official Michael Griffie.

Missouri

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

• MO-Sen (R) (57-41 Trump): Republicans have a crowded contest to succeed retiring Sen. Roy Blunt in this conservative state, though only three―former Gov. Eric Greitens, Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and Rep. Vicky Hartzler―appear to have a shot at the nomination. The field also includes Rep. Billy Long, state Senate President Pro Tem Dave Schatz, and wealthy attorney Mark McCloskey, but none of them have registered much support in the polls.

Early surveys gave the lead to Greitens, who resigned from the governorship in 2018 in the face of multiple scandals. The candidate, though, has been on the receiving end of millions of dollars worth of ads from a super PAC that, among other things, has highlighted his ex-wife's accusations that Greitens physically abused both her and their children in 2018.

Hartzler, for her part, has the backing of Missouri’s other senator, Josh Hawley, but her efforts to get the biggest endorsement in GOP politics went badly: In early July, Trump publicly announced that he “will NOT BE ENDORSING HER FOR THE SENATE.” Instead, the day before the primary, Trump announced "that ERIC has my Complete and Total Endorsement!" Both Greitens and Schmitt thirstily lapped up the statement as a bona fide expression of support, ignoring the fact that Trump pointedly did not choose between the two.

Unlike the lightning-rod Greitens, Schmitt has managed to avoid any toxic headlines throught the race, though his opponents have tried to portray him as being too close to China. Schmitt has also benefited from more outside spending than anyone else, and recent polls have shown the attorney general in the lead.

The Democrats have a primary battle of their own between Marine veteran Lucas Kunce and businesswoman Trudy Busch Valentine, though the winner will be a longshot, even if they get to face someone as tainted as Greitens. A onetime Republican, former U.S. Attorney John Wood, is also campaigning as an independent.

• MO-01 (D) (78-20 Biden): Freshman Rep. Cori Bush pulled off a major upset two years ago when she unseated veteran Rep. Lacy Clay in the Democratic primary, and the high-profile progressive now faces four intra-party opponents in a St. Louis seat that only experienced small changes under the new map.

Bush’s main foe is state Sen. Steve Roberts, who has gone after Bush for casting a vote from the left against the Biden administration's infrastructure bill and has Clay’s backing. Bush's team, meanwhile, has highlighted accusations of sexual assault against Roberts by two different women in 2015 and 2017, though he was never charged in either case. A July poll showed the incumbent ahead 40-20.

• MO-04 (R) (69-29 Trump): Seven Republicans are competing to replace Rep. Vicky Hartzler in what remains a safely red constituency in the western part of the state, and there’s no obvious frontrunner.

Cattle farmer Kalena Bruce has the backing of Gov. Mike Parson and the influential Missouri Farm Bureau, while state Sen. Rick Brattin has the prominent anti-abortion group Missouri Right to Life in his corner. Former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks is the only other candidate who has held elected office, while former Kansas City TV anchor Mark Alford enjoys some local name recognition. Retired Navy SEAL Bill Irwin is the final candidate who has spent a notable amount of money.

Outside groups have almost completely focused on helping or hindering only two of the contenders. School Freedom Fund, which is an affiliate of the anti-tax Club for Growth, has spent over $1 million to support Brattin or attack Alford; two other organizations, the crypto-aligned American Dream Federal Action and Conservative Americans PAC have deployed a comparable sum to help Alford and weaken Brattin.

• MO-07 (R) (70-28 Trump): The GOP has a similarly crowded eight-way race in southwestern Missouri to replace another Senate candidate, Rep. Billy Long, and no one has an obvious advantage here either. The field includes a trio of state senators, Eric Burlison, Mike Moon, and Jay Wasson, while another name to watch is Alex Bryant, a pastor who would be the first African American Republican to represent Missouri in Congress. The final candidate who has spent a notable amount is physician Sam Alexander.

Wasson, who is self-funding, has far outspent his competition, but Burlison’s allies at the Club for Growth have also dropped $1 million to stop him. The Club and the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, likewise, have deployed almost $600,000 to promote Burlison. A third group, Conservative Americans PAC, has spent close to $700,000 to beat Burlison and a bit less than half of that to hit Moon.

Arizona

Polls close at 10 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

• AZ-Sen (R) (49.2-48.9 Biden): Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly will be a top GOP target following his close win in 2020 for the final two years of the late John McCain's term, and five Republicans are competing to face him. Most polls show that the frontrunner is former Thiel Capital chief operating officer Blake Masters, who picked up Trump’s endorsement in June. Masters’ old boss, conservative mega donor Peter Thiel, has poured $15 million into a super PAC to support him, while the anti-tax Club for Growth is also spending on his behalf.

Masters’ main intra-party rival appears to be wealthy businessman Jim Lamon, who posted a lead in one recent survey. Lamon has tried to portray Masters as a phony conservative who only recently relocated to the state from California, and he’s also run a commercial using recent footage of his rival calling the Unabomber “a "subversive thinker that's underrated."

Attorney General Mark Brnovich, meanwhile, began the race looking like the frontrunner, but Trump loathes him for insufficiently advancing the Big Lie and he’s faded in recent months. State Corporation Commissioner Justin Olson and retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Michael McGuire round out the field.

• AZ-Gov (R & D) (49.2-48.9 Biden): The Republican primary has turned into an expensive proxy battle between Trump and termed-out Gov. Doug Ducey, a one-time Trump ally who wound up in the MAGA doghouse after he refused to go along with Trump’s efforts to steal the 2020 election.

Trump is all in for Kari Lake, a former local TV anchor turned far-right conspiracy theorist. Ducey, meanwhile, is supporting Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, who has used her wealth to massively outspent Lake. Former Rep. Matt Salmon, who was the 2002 nominee, is also on the ballot along with two others, though he ended his campaign in June and endorsed Robson. Most polls show Lake ahead, though a Robson internal had the race tied.

Robson and her allies are trying to pull off an upset by highlighting Lake’s past as a supporter of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and they got some help in June from an unexpected source. After Lake targeted drag performances as "grooming" and "child abuse," a prominent Phoenix drag queen named Richard Stevens responded by posting images of the two together during their now-severed friendship and revealing that he’d performed for her multiple times. The story wound up in an anti-Lake ad in which another drag queen said that the candidate is “not just a fake, she's a phony'.”

The Democratic side has been a far more low-key affair, though there’s been little recent polling. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has been the frontrunner from the start, and she’s enjoyed a big financial advantage over former Homeland Security official Marco López.

• AZ-01 (R & D) (50-49 Biden): Republican Rep. David Schweikert is seeking re-election in a reconfigured seat in the eastern Phoenix area that’s more competitive than his existing 6th District, but he needs to get through an expensive and ugly primary before he can worry about that. Businessman Elijah Norton has enjoyed a huge spending advantage thanks to his personal wealth, and he’s aired ads attacking Schweikert over a major scandal that resulted in the incumbent admitting to 11 different violations of congressional rules and campaign finance laws in 2020.

Schweikert, for his part, has focused on Norton's turbulent departure from his insurance company. The congressman has also circulated mailers showing his challenger and a male friend with the caption, “Elijah Norton isn't being straight with you.” Norton quickly fired back with a defamation lawsuit accusing Schweikert of falsely insinuating that he’s gay. The field also includes Josh Barnett, who badly lost a 2020 race against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego but could cost Norton some much-needed anti-incumbent votes.

The Democratic contest between Jevin Hodge, who lost a tight 2020 race for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, and former Phoenix Suns employee Adam Metzendorf has been far less incendiary. Hodge, who would be Arizona’s first Black congressman, has far outspent his rival, and the DCCC backed him in June.

• AZ-02 (R) (53-45 Trump): Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran is defending a seat in northern and eastern rural Arizona that’s considerably more conservative than the 1st District he holds now, and seven Republicans are competing to face him. One of them, Navy SEAL veteran Eli Crane, picked up Donald Trump’s endorsement in the final weeks of the race, a decision that earned Trump loud boos at his rally a few hours later (possibly because of a coordinated effort by opponents who've criticized him for not living in the district).

Crane himself released a survey before he earned Trump’s nod showing him in the lead with 19% while state Rep. Walt Blackman and businessman Mark DeLuzio tied 12-12 for second. Outside groups have spent $1 million to either promote Crane or attack Blackman, a fellow Big Lie promoter who would be the state’s first Black member of Congress. The field also includes Ron Watkins, the reputed founder of the QAnon conspiracy cult, though he’s raised little.

• AZ-04 (R) (54-44 Biden): Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton faces six Republicans in a seat based in the southern Phoenix suburbs that is considerably more competitive than the 9th District he now serves. The GOP establishment has consolidated behind Tanya Wheeless, a former president of the Arizona Bankers Association. Her best-funded rival is restaurant owner Kelly Cooper, who has financed most of his campaign himself, while Chandler City Councilman Rene Lopez is also in. Outside groups have deployed over $1 million to support Wheeless and bash Cooper.

• AZ-06 (D & R) (49.3-49.2 Biden): Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick announced her retirement last year before Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission drew up a new Tucson-based seat that’s well to the right of her current 2nd District, and both parties have contested primaries to succeed her.

The Democratic side pits former state Rep. Daniel Hernández, who as an intern helped save then-Rep. Gabby Giffords after she was shot in 2011, against state Sen. Kirsten Engel; a third candidate, engineer Avery Anderson, hasn't earned much attention. Both candidates have brought in a comparable amount of money, and major outside groups haven’t been involved here.

Until recently, the Republican primary looked like it would be an easy win for Juan Ciscomani, a former senior advisor to Gov. Doug Ducey who has far outraised his five intra-party foes. But things got more interesting in the final days when the House GOP’s main super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, spent over $1 million to support Ciscomani, whose decision to campaign as a unifier may not be resonating with the primary electorate.

Ciscomani’s main rival appears to be former mortgage banker Kathleen Winn, who has thrown far more red meat to the base. Winn has spread conspiracy theories insinuating that American leaders are “being paid off” by China and Russia, so naturally she has the backing of notorious far-right figures including Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar and Kari Lake, Trump’s candidate for governor.

• AZ-AG (R) & AZ-SoS (R & D) (49.2-48.9 Biden): Both the offices of attorney general and secretary of state, which along with the governor are involved in certifying election results in the Grand Canyon State, are open, and Trump is backing an election conspiracy theorist for each.

Trump’s man in the six-way contest for attorney general is former prosecutor Abe Hamadeh, who has denied that Biden won the state. Hamadeh's intra-party foes are Tiffany Shedd, who lost a close general election last cycle in the 1st Congressional District against Rep. Tom O'Halleran; Rodney Glassman, a former Democrat who now sports an endorsement from far-right Rep. Paul Gosar; former prosecutor Lacy Cooper; former Arizona Supreme Court Justice Andrew Gould; and manufacturing executive Dawn Grove. The winner will go up against former Arizona Corporation Commission Chair Kris Mayes, who has no opposition in the Democratic primary.

Over in the four-way contest for secretary of state, Trump is backing state Rep. Mark Finchem, a QAnon supporter who led the failed effort to overturn Biden's victory and attended the Jan. 6 rally just ahead of the attack on the Capitol. Finchem faces two fellow legislators, state Rep. Shawnna Bolick and state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita, who have both promoted voter suppression measures. The final candidate is advertising executive Beau Lane, who has Gov. Doug Ducey’s endorsement and is the one candidate who acknowledges Biden’s win.

The Democratic contest for secretary of state pits state House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding against Adrian Fontes, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as Maricopa County clerk. A recent poll for an unnamed super PAC put Fontes ahead 44-29, but a pro-Bolding group gave their candidate a 35-30 advantage.

Other Arizona races to watch: Maricopa County, AZ Attorney

Washington

Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.

Washington’s top-two primary requires all candidates to compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. The two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 8 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in August by taking a majority of the vote.

• WA-03 (51-46 Trump): Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler earned herself a prominent place on Trump's shitlist after she voted for impeachment, and she now faces four fellow Republicans, two Democrats, and two unaffiliated candidates in this southwest Washington constituency that's very similar to her previous district. Trump himself is pulling for Joe Kent, an Army veteran who has defended Putin's invasion of Ukraine and has ties to far-right extremists.

An outside group called Conservatives for A Stronger America, though, has spent over $1 million to attack Kent and elevate a third Republican, evangelical author Heidi St. John. Kent has argued that this organization is trying to “prop up a spoiler candidate and split the vote” in order to help Herrera Beutler advance to the general election, though he’s trying something similar on a smaller scale. His campaign has sent out mail pieces highlighting how the only serious Democratic candidate, auto repair shop owner Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, is the one "pro-choice candidate for Congress,” a move aimed at costing Herrera Beutler Democratic votes. The field also includes GOP state Rep. Vicki Kraft, though she’s earned little notice.

• WA-04 (57-40 Trump): Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse, who also voted for impeachment, faces six intra-party opponents in this largely unchanged eastern Washington constituency, while businessman Doug White is the one Democrat in the running. Trump has thrown his support behind 2020 gubernatorial nominee Loren Culp, an ex-cop who has refused to recognize his decisive loss to Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, but he’s badly struggled with fundraising.

Defending Main Street, which is aligned with the GOP leadership, has spent over $1 million praising Newhouse and attacking Culp, while the challenger has received no major outside help. Team Red’s field also includes self-funding businessman Jerrod Sessler and state Rep. Brad Klippert.

• WA-08 (52-45 Biden): Three notable Republicans are challenging Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier in what remains a competitive seat in suburban Seattle.

Schrier's most familiar foe is 2020 nominee Jesse Jensen, who unexpectedly held her to a 52-48 win last time despite bringing in little money and is proving to be a considerably stronger fundraiser this time. Another well-established Republican is King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn, who was the 2012 nominee for attorney general; Dunn is the son of the late Rep. Jennifer Dunn, who represented previous versions of this constituency from 1993 to 2005. Team Red's field also includes another failed candidate for attorney general, 2020 nominee Matt Larkin.

Jensen has outspent his intra-party rivals, and he’s also benefited from over $300,000 in support from a super PAC set up to help him. The group’s efforts include ads against Dunn, including mailers highlighting his past struggles with alcoholism.

Other Washington races to watch: WA-SoS

Our all-time favorite loser prays the fifth time will be the charm on his endless quest for Congress

Posted on June 14, 2022 by Jeff Singer

We have more primary action Tuesday as voters in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina select their party’s nominees. Additionally, there will be an all-party primary in Texas’ 34th District to replace Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela, who resigned early to take a job at a lobbying firm.

Listen and subscribe to Daily Kos Elections’ The Downballot podcast with David Nir and David Beard

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Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall—except in Texas’ 34th, which is being conducted using the existing boundaries. (The state held its regularly-scheduled primary for the new district earlier this year.) And if you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.

Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections when polls close in South Carolina. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

South Carolina

Polls close at 7 PM ET. A June 28 runoff will take place in any contest where no one takes a majority of the vote.

● SC-01 (R) (54-45 Trump): Freshman Rep. Nancy Mace infuriated Donald Trump last year when she blamed him for the Jan. 6 attacks, and he responded by endorsing former state Rep. Katie Arrington's primary campaign in February. The winner will go up against pediatrician Annie Andrews, a well-funded Democrat who has no primary foes in a seat along the state's southern coast that Republican map makers made more conservative.

Mace, who has the support of former Gov. Nikki Haley, has pushed back against Arrington’s attempts to portray her as disloyal to the GOP by touting her own conservative values. She’s also reminded voters that Arrington denied renomination in 2018 to then-Rep. Mark Sanford, only to lose the general election to Democrat Joe Cunningham, arguing the challenger would jeopardize the seat again. (Mace herself unseated Cunningham, who is now running for governor, two years later.)

The incumbent has enjoyed a huge financial advantage, and a pro-Mace group released a late May poll showing her ahead 44-24. That survey still put Mace below the majority she’d need to avoid a runoff, which is a real possibility since a third candidate named Lynz Piper-Loomis remains on the ballot even though she dropped out weeks ago and endorsed Arrington. Trump, though, seems pessimistic about beating Mace, as Politico recently reported he’s avoided returning to the state out of fear that Arrington is about to lose.

● SC-07 (R) (59-40 Trump): Rep. Tom Rice shocked political observers last year when he became one of the 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Donald Trump, and he now faces six primary opponents in a northeastern South Carolina seat that changed little after redistricting.

Trump's endorsed candidate is state Rep. Russell Fry, whom Rice’s side has argued isn’t actually the conservative he presents himself as. The field also includes former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, Horry County Schools Board of Education Chairman Ken Richardson, physician Garrett Barton, and pharmacist Spencer Morris, who have all attracted far less attention than Fry but could each take enough of the vote to force a runoff.

Maine

Polls close at 8 PM ET. While Maine will host competitive races for governor and the 2nd Congressional District this fall, there's little action in the primaries: Former Gov. Paul LePage has the GOP nod to take on Democratic incumbent Janet Mills sewn up, while former Rep. Bruce Poliquin is all but certain to face Democratic Rep. Jared Golden in a rematch of their 2018 race.

North Dakota

Polls close at 7 PM local time, which is 8 PM ET in the eastern part of the state and 9 PM ET in the western part of the state.

Texas

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

● TX-34 (special all-party primary) (52-48 Biden): Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela resigned from this Rio Grande Valley constituency earlier this year to take a job at a lobbying firm, and two Democrats and two Republicans are competing to replace him in an all-party primary taking place under the old district lines. A runoff would be necessary if no one takes a majority of the vote, though a second round won't be scheduled unless it's actually needed.

The Republican frontrunner is Mayra Flores, who is already the GOP nominee for the new version of the 34th District. (The redrawn 34th is significantly more Democratic at 57-42 Biden.) The Democrats have consolidated behind former Cameron County Commissioner Dan Sanchez, who is not running for a full two-year term anywhere. The other two contenders, Republican Janie Cantu-Cabrera and Democrat Rene Coronado, have gained little notice.

While this battle won’t directly impact control of Congress, Republicans hope a victory will demonstrate that Trump’s 2020 gains in heavily Latino areas like this were no fluke. Flores could also benefit from a few months of incumbency going into her general election contest against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who represents the existing 15th District. Flores and her allies have spent over $1 million, while the first Democratic commercials came during the final week of the race when House Majority PAC began a $120,000 ad campaign tying Flores to the Jan. 6 rioters.

Nevada

Polls close at 10 PM ET /7 PM local time.

● NV-Sen (R) (50-48 Biden): While Trump’s endorsed candidate, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, remains the undisputed frontrunner in the Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the 2018 gubernatorial nominee has had to deal with an unexpectedly expensive primary against Army veteran Sam Brown.

Brown, who's framed himself as a political outsider, has faulted Laxalt for waiting too long to file litigation trying to overturn Biden's win in 2020. Laxalt’s allies at the Club for Growth appear to be taking this contest seriously, since the group has spent over $1 million to boost him. A poll for the nonpartisan Nevada Independent found Laxalt ahead 48-34 just ahead of the primary.

● NV-Gov (R) (50-48 Biden): Republicans have a crowded contest to take on Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, but Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo had long looked like the frontrunner even before Trump backed him in April. North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, a former conservative Democrat who defected to the GOP last year, has outspent Lombardo on the airwaves, but the sheriff’s allies have made up the gap by spending $3 million to promote him. The Democratic Governors Association, meanwhile, has invested about $2.5 million on ads aimed at stopping Lombardo from advancing, or at least hoping to weaken him for the general election.

However, the Nevada Independent’s poll finds Lombardo well-positioned to win the nomination by defeating attorney Joey Gilbert, a former professional boxer who has bragged that he was "definitely on the Capitol steps" on Jan. 6, 34-21. Both Lee and former Sen. Dean Heller, who lost a very competitive re-election bid in 2018, were in third with 10% each, while venture capitalist Guy Nohra trailed further behind.

● NV-01 (D & R) (53-45 Biden): Democrats in the legislature made this seat in the eastern Las Vegas area considerably more competitive in order to make the 3rd and 4th Districts bluer—enraging Democratic Rep. Dina Titus in the process. The congresswoman, who represents just over half of the redrawn seat, now faces notable primary and general election opposition after a decade of easy wins.

Titus’ lone intra-party foe is progressive activist Amy Vilela, who ran in the 4th in 2018 and took third place in the primary with 9%. Vilela, who is arguing that the incumbent has done little to advance priorities like Medicare for All, has brought in a credible sum of campaign cash, while a group called Opportunity for All Action Fund has spent $240,000 to promote the incumbent.

Eight Republicans are competing to take on the winner. The one with the most national name recognition is former 4th District Rep. Crescent Hardy, who won that seat in a 2014 upset before losing competitive races there in 2016 and 2018. Only about 4% of the new 1st’s denizens live in Hardy’s old constituency, though, and the former congressman has barely raised any money for his latest comeback attempt. The other notable contenders are conservative activist David Brog, Army veteran Mark Robertson, and former Trump campaign staffer Carolina Serrano.

● NV-02 (R) (54-43 Trump): Republican Rep. Mark Amodei is seeking renomination in a reliably red northern Nevada seat that changed little under the new map against a field of four challengers led by the one and only Danny Tarkanian. Tarkanian has lost bids for the Senate (2010) and the House (2012, 2016, and 2018), not to mention two campaigns for state office in the aughts plus an abortive run for the Senate and the state board of regents.

But Tarkanian, who was a longtime resident of the Las Vegas area well to the south, finally ended his legendary losing streak in 2020 by winning the job of county commissioner in his new rural home of Douglas County. Amodei, of course, is still portraying his opponent as an interloper. The incumbent’s allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the main super PAC of the House GOP leadership, have spent $240,000 on ads slagging Tarkanian as a perennial loser, while a group called the Police Officers Defense Alliance has invested $860,000 on pro-Amodei spots; the With Honor Fund has also come to the congressman’s aid with $260,000 in support.

Tarkanian, who has received little outside help of his own, is using his personal funds to largely finance his latest campaign. The challenger has gone after Amodei for showing some openness to impeaching Trump in 2019 and for blaming the GOP's master for the Jan. 6 attack, though the congressman never voted for impeachment in either situation.

● NV-03 (R) (52-46 Biden): Democratic legislators sought to protect Rep. Susie Lee in this southern Las Vegas area seat by extending Biden’s margin of victory up from just 49.1-48.9, but her five Republican foes are betting she’s still vulnerable. The frontrunner is attorney April Becker, who narrowly failed to unseat state Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro last cycle and has the support of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Becker has also far outspent her intra-party rivals, though Army veteran Noah Malgeri and self-funder John Kovacs each also deployed a notable amount.

● NV-04 (R) (53-45 Biden): Three Republicans are campaigning to take on Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, whose constituency in the northern Las Vegas area became bluer under the new map. The only elected official of the trio is Assemblywoman Annie Black, who attended the Jan. 6 Trump rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol.

Sam Peters, an Air Force veteran and businessman who took second place in the 2020 primary to face Horsford, is also trying again, and he’s touted support from two of the far-right's loudest members of Congress, Arizona Reps. Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar. The third contender is Chance Bonaventura, who works as an aide to another far-right politician, Las Vegas Councilwoman Michele Fiore (Fiore herself is campaigning for state treasurer), but has raised very little money.

● NV-AG (R) (50-48 Biden): Democrat Aaron Ford made history in 2018 when he became the first Black person elected to statewide office in Nevada, and two Republicans are now campaigning to unseat the attorney general. For months, the only candidate was Sigal Chattah, an attorney who has sued to undermine the state's pandemic response measures and who has complained that the attorney general has done a poor job investigating (baseless, of course) voter fraud allegations.

February, though, saw the entrance of Tisha Black, who lost a 2018 race for Clark County Commission and who founded a cannabis industry trade group. Chattah has attacked Black for a donation she made to now-Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak in 2015, a contribution Black has denied making despite the unambiguous evidence that she had. A Democratic group has run radio ads slamming Black over her donation while calling Chattah a "MAGA conservative." (Unlike similar efforts by Democrats elsewhere seeking to choose their opponents, these ads don't merely "attack" Chattah in a backhanded way but openly call for her election.)

● NV-SoS (R) (50-48 Biden): Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, who was the only Nevada Republican to prevail statewide during the 2018 Democratic wave, is termed out, and Republicans are likely to nominate an extremist in the race to succeed her. The GOP nominee will go up against former state Athletic Commission member Cisco Aguilar, who has no Democratic opposition. A recent GOP primary poll for the Nevada Independent showed a 21-21 deadlock between former Assemblyman Jim Marchant and developer Jesse Haw, with former Judge Richard Scotti far back at 8%.

Marchant, who was the 2020 nominee against Rep. Steven Horsford, is a QAnon ally who has said he would not have certified Joe Biden's 2020 victory; he's also attracted notoriety allying with conspiracist candidates in other states running to become chief election officials. Haw, who briefly served in the state Senate for a few months in 2016, hasn’t focused nearly as much on the Big Lie, but he’s very much alluded to it by saying that last election “had a lot of shenanigans and potential fraud.”

GOP panic over two major Pennsylvania races headlines huge primary night nationwide

Posted on May 17, 2022 (Updated May 17, 2022) by Jeff Singer

Tuesday brings us the biggest primary night of the 2022 cycle so far―in fact, one of the biggest we can expect all year―as voters in five different states across the country head to the polls. We have tons of must-watch and extremely expensive elections in store as each side selects its nominees in crucial contests for Senate and governor, as well as in numerous House races.

Below you'll find our guide to all of the top primaries, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

And of course, because this is a redistricting year, every state on the docket has a brand-new congressional map. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall. And if you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.

The Daily Kos Elections Team talks about how the MAGA civil war might be hurting the GOP in races across the country on The Downballot podcast

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Our live coverage will begin at 7:30 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections when polls close in North Carolina. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

KENTUCKY

Polls close in the portion of the state located in the Eastern Time Zone, which includes the entire 3rd Congressional District, at 6 PM ET. They close in the rest of the state an hour later.

● KY-03 (D) (60-38 Biden): Rep. John Yarmuth, who's spent a decade as Kentucky’s only Democratic member of Congress, is retiring from a Louisville seat that only underwent minor changes in redistricting, and two candidates are running for the nod to replace him: state Senate Minority Leader Morgan McGarvey, who has Yarmuth’s endorsement, and state Rep. Attica Scott, who would be the state’s first Black member of Congress.

McGarvey, who has enjoyed a massive fundraising lead over Scott, has also received $1 million in support from Protect Our Future PAC, a group funded by cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried. Scott, who kicked off a campaign for this seat before Yarmuth announced his departure, has not benefited from any serious outside spending.

NORTH CAROLINA

Polls close statewide at 7:30 PM ET. Candidates must take at least 30% of the vote to avert a July 26 runoff, though the second-place finisher must officially request a runoff for one to occur.

● NC-Sen (R) (50-49 Trump): A total of 14 Republicans are competing to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr, but most of the attention has centered around Rep. Ted Budd and former Gov. Pat McCrory. Budd has the backing of Donald Trump and the well-funded Club for Growth, which along with its allies has spent $14.3 million on the congressman's behalf.

While Budd's campaign appeared to be in rough shape as recently as late January, every recent survey has shown him far ahead and well above the threshold for avoiding a runoff. Former Rep. Mark Walker and businesswoman Marjorie Eastman are also running, but they’re unlikely to matter unless the polls are wrong and Budd struggles to win outright. The winner will face former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, who doesn’t have any serious opposition in the Democratic primary.

● NC-01 (D & R) (53-45 Biden): Rep. G.K. Butterfield is retiring from this northeastern North Carolina seat that became slightly redder under the new congressional map imposed by the state courts after finding the GOP's districts were illegal partisan gerrymanders. Four fellow Democrats are running to replace the departing congressman. The two main contenders are state Sen. Don Davis, a prominent moderate whom Butterfield is supporting, and former state Sen. Erica Smith, who badly lost the 2020 primary for the U.S. Senate.

Smith has gone after her opponent for supporting anti-abortion legislation, but she’s been heavily outspent by Davis and his allies. The senator has benefited from $2.9 million in spending from United Democracy Project, a super PAC funded by the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, while the Working Families Party has deployed a considerably smaller $600,000 to promote Smith. A recent Davis internal, to which Smith did not respond, showed him up 44-31.

Things got unexpectedly nasty in the final week of the GOP's eight-way primary when the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC close to party leadership, launched an ad campaign aiming to torpedo accountant Sandy Smith, who is running again after losing to Butterfield 54-46 in 2020. Smith’s most prominent intra-party foe appears to be Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, who is the only elected official in the contest and has self-funded most of his bid. Other contenders to watch are attorney Billy Strickland, who failed to beat an incumbent state senator in a 2020 primary, and another self-funder, businessman Brad Murphy.

● NC-04 (D) (67-32 Biden): Veteran Rep. David Price is retiring from a safely blue seat that remains anchored by the college towns of Durham and Chapel Hill, and eight fellow Democrats are competing to take his place. The contest includes two elected officials: Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who in 2020 became the first Muslim woman to win elective office in North Carolina, and state Sen. Valerie Foushee, who would be the first Black woman to represent this area in Congress. Also in the running is Clay Aiken, the former "American Idol" star who unsuccessfully ran against Republican Rep. Renee Ellmers several maps ago in 2014 and would be the state’s first gay representative.

Outside spending has very much favored Foushee, with AIPAC and Protect Our Future, the crypto-aligned PAC, representing most of the $3.5 million that has been deployed on her behalf; by contrast, Allam has received about $330,000 in support from the Working Families Party and other groups, while there have been no independent expenditures for Aiken. A late April internal from Foushee’s allies at EMILY’s List showed her defeating Allam 35-16.

● NC-11 (R) (54-44 Trump): Far-right freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn pissed off lots of folks in western North Carolina when he tried to leave them behind to run for an even more conservative district in the Charlotte area that he had almost no ties to—a self-serving plan to boost his own profile that got derailed when the state's new court-drawn map replaced that Charlotte seat with a solidly blue district.

Cawthorn now faces seven challengers in a constituency that’s virtually the same as the one he wanted to abandon, several of whom launched campaigns during the brief period that the congressman was trying to hop districts. Sen. Thom Tillis has thrown his support behind state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who has pitched himself as an ardent conservative alternative to the shameless, attention-seeking incumbent. A super PAC close to Tillis has spent $1.6 million on ads attacking Cawthorn and his litany of embarrassing behaviors while also promoting Edwards.

The incumbent, though, retains Trump’s endorsement, and he could benefit if the other six candidates, including local GOP official Michele Woodhouse, split the anti-Cawthorn vote. Indeed, a late April survey from GOPAC, which isn’t backing anyone, showed that Cawthorn still led Edwards 38-21. The eventual winner will likely go up against Buncombe County Commissioner Jasmine Beach-Ferrara, who is the Democratic frontrunner.

● NC-13 (D & R) (50-48 Biden): Redistricting created a new swing seat in Raleigh's southern suburbs, and both parties have competitive primaries here. The Democratic side includes five candidates, with state Sen. Wiley Nickel and former state Sen. Sam Searcy the frontrunners. Nickel has enjoyed a spending advantage over Searcy in a contest where major outside groups haven’t gotten involved.

Things are far busier on the Republican side, where eight contenders are squaring off. Both Donald Trump and the Club for Growth are supporting Bo Hines, a 26-year-old former North Carolina State University football player who has minimal ties to the area and. The Club, the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, and assorted other groups have together spent over $2.3 million promoting Hines and attacking one of his many opponents, wealthy attorney Kelly Daughtry, while a PAC called Old North has dropped over $1 million to boost Daughtry and bash Hines.

The other six candidates haven’t attracted as much attention. The field includes former Rep. Renee Ellmers, who represented part of the greater Raleigh area in the House from 2011 to 2017 in a brief career that was defined by some very wild swings of fortune; party activist DeVan Barbour; Army veteran Kent Keirsey; and pastor Chad Slotta.

PENNSYLVANIA

Polls close statewide at 8 PM ET.

● PA-Sen (R & D) (50-49 Biden): Both parties have hosted expensive primaries to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey in this key swing state, though the GOP contest has been a far more volatile affair. Until the final week, the main contenders were TV personality Mehmet Oz, who has Trump’s backing, and wealthy former hedge fund manager David McCormick. The two candidates and their allies have dumped millions on attack ads for months, which appears to have provided an unexpected opening for author Kathy Barnette, an election denier who badly lost to Democratic Rep. Madeleine Dean last cycle in the 4th District.

A survey taken for Fox News late in the race showed Oz with a 22-20 edge over McCormick, with Barnette just behind at 19%. The Club for Growth soon followed up with a $2 million infusion for Barnette, who has scarcely aired any ads on her own. Many GOP insiders are worried that she’d jeopardize the party’s general election prospects, and even Trump tried to knock her down Thursday. Also in the running are Jeff Bartos, who was Team Red's nominee for lieutenant governor; former Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands; and attorney George Bochetto, but they haven’t demonstrated any Barnette-like late surge.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has from day one enjoyed huge polling leads over his two main intra-party rivals, Rep. Conor Lamb and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta. The race never descended into anything like the bloody affair on the Republican side, though it did turn negative last month. A pro-Lamb super PAC tried to weaken Fetterman using an erroneous and since-corrected news report to falsely claim Fetterman is a "self-described socialist” (the spot was pulled off the air and an edited version had to be substituted), but there’s no indication this attack had its desired effect. Fetterman announced Sunday that he’d suffered a stroke two days before but was “well on my way to a full recovery” and would continue his campaign.

● PA-Gov (R) (50-49 Biden): Republicans have to sort out a crowded, bitter primary before they can focus on trying to replace termed-out Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, a contest Team Blue has taken a deep interest in. State Sen. Doug Mastriano, a QAnon ally and Big Lie proponent whom many Republicans fret would be a toxic nominee, posted a 29-17 advantage over former Rep. Lou Barletta in a mid-May Fox News poll despite spending little money. Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who has no intra-party opposition, even ran commercials ostensibly attacking Mastriano that are actually designed to help him appeal to Trump fans; Trump himself also delivered a late endorsement to Mastriano on Saturday.

GOP leaders who aren’t Trump have hoped that they could consolidate behind one non-Mastriano candidate, prompting state Senate leader Jake Corman and former Rep. Melissa Hart to drop out just days before the primary and endorse Barletta, an anti-immigration zealot who is anything but a moderate. However, former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain, self-funding businessman Dave White, and several contenders even further behind in the polls have stayed put. McSwain himself has spent heavily, but he got the worst news possible last month when Trump attacked him for not doing enough to advance the Big Lie and urged Republicans not to vote for him.

● PA-12 (D) (59-39 Biden): Five Democrats are campaigning to succeed retiring Rep. Mike Doyle in a Pittsburgh-based seat that looks very much like the 18th District he currently serves.

Doyle and Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald are both backing Steve Irwin, a former chief of the Pennsylvania Securities Commission. The other major contender is state Rep. Summer Lee, a progressive who would be the first Black woman to represent the Keystone State in Congress. In Lee’s corner are Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey and the influential SEIU Pennsylvania State Council. There's also law professor Jerry Dickinson, who challenged Doyle in the 2020 primary and lost 67-33. Dickinson, like Lee, is a Black progressive, and it's possible the two will be competing for the same sorts of voters.

A late March poll for Lee’s supporters at EMILY’s List showed her beating Irwin 38-13, but Irwin’s allies have ramped up their spending since then. A total of $3.1 million in outside spending has gone towards promoting Irwin or attacking Lee, with the bulk of it coming from AIPAC. The Working Families Party and Justice Democrats, meanwhile, are responsible for most of the $1.7 million that’s aided Lee.

● PA-17 (D & R) (52-46 Biden): Two Democrats and three Republicans are campaigning to succeed Senate candidate Conor Lamb in a suburban Pittsburgh seat that’s very similar to the old 17th District. On the Democratic side, Navy veteran Chris Deluzio has outspent party operative Sean Meloy in a race where outside groups haven’t gotten involved. Deluzio has the Allegheny-Fayette Central Labor Council on his side, while Meloy, who would be the state’s first LGBTQ member, has the support of neighboring Rep. Mike Doyle.

The GOP race is a battle between former Ross Township Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer and Jason Killmeyer, a national security analyst who often appears in conservative media. Shaffer has spent the most money, though Killmeyer has made sure to highlight the fact that Shaffer unseated an incumbent state senator in the 2018 primary only to narrowly lose the general election and cost the GOP a crucial seat. The third Republican, business owner Kathleen Coder, has little money.

IDAHO

Polls close in the portion of the state located in the Mountain Time Zone at 10 PM ET/8 PM local time. Polls close in the rest of the state an hour later.

● ID-Gov (R) (64-33 Trump): Gov. Brad Little faces seven fellow Republicans in this overwhelmingly red state, but the most prominent of the bunch is Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, who is also an ally of far-right conspiracist groups. Little, however, has enjoyed a massive financial lead, and he posted a huge 60-29 lead over McGeachin in an independent poll conducted in mid-April.

● ID-02 (R) (60-37 Trump): Longtime Republican Rep. Mike Simpson faces a primary rematch against attorney Bryan Smith, whom he beat 62-38 in 2014, in an eastern Idaho constituency that barely changed following redistricting; three little-known contenders are also on the ballot.

Just as he did eight years ago, Smith is arguing that the congressman is insufficiently conservative, though this time he’s also attacking Simpson for the doubts he expressed about Trump in 2016. The incumbent, for his part, is once again portraying the challenger as a greedy lawyer. Pro-Simpson groups have spent $1.7 million here, while Smith’s allies have dropped $680,000.

● ID-AG (R) (64-33 Trump): Five-term Attorney General Lawrence Wasden faces an intra-party challenge from former Rep. Raúl Labrador, who spent his four terms in the House as one of the most prominent tea party shit-talkers before losing his 2018 bid for governor in the GOP primary. Conservative activist Art Macomber is also in the mix. The Club for Growth has run commercials attacking Wasden for refusing to join other GOP attorneys general in suing to overturn Biden’s win, and Labrador has also taken him to task for not working with hardline conservatives in the legislature. A trio of polls, including a Club internal, have found Labrador in the lead.

OREGON

Polls close in most of Oregon at 11 PM ET/8 PM local time; they close an hour earlier in the small portion of the state in the Mountain Time Zone, but few if any votes will be reported before 11 ET.

● OR-Gov (D & R) (56-40 Biden): Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is termed-out of an office her party has held since the 1986 elections, and both sides have competitive races to succeed her. The two candidates who emerge Tuesday will be in for an expensive general election that will also feature former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a conservative Democrat-turned-independent who's been a strong fundraiser.

There are 15 different Democrats in the running, but the only two serious contenders are state Treasurer Tobias Read and former state House Speaker Tina Kotek, who would be the first lesbian elected governor anywhere in the country. Kotek’s ads have emphasized her role in passing progressive policies, while the more moderate Read has argued that he represents a “new approach” for the state. A mid-April Reed internal had Kotek ahead 25-20.

The 19-person GOP field is similarly crowded but more in flux. The only recent poll we’ve seen was an independent survey from early May that showed former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan leading former state Rep. Bob Tiernan, who has been self-funding, 19-14, with 2016 nominee Bud Pierce at 10%. The field also includes 1998 nominee Bill Sizemore; consultant Bridget Barton; businesswoman Jessica Gomez; Baker City Mayor Kerry McQuisten; and Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam.

● OR-04 (D) (55-42 Biden): Veteran Rep. Peter DeFazio is retiring from a district along the state’s south coast that Democrats in the legislature made several points bluer, and eight fellow Democrats are running to replace him.

The top fundraiser is state Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle, who has endorsements from DeFazio and Sen. Jeff Merkley. Around $580,000 in outside spending has gone to supporting Hoyle, with most of that coming from the crypto-aligned Web3 Forward. Also in the race are former Airbnb executive Andrew Kalloch; Corvallis school board chair Sami Al-Abdrabbuh; and Doyle Canning, who badly lost the 2020 primary to DeFazio. The winner will go up against 2020 GOP nominee Alek Skarlatos, a National Guard veteran whose 52-46 loss last cycle represented the closest re-election contest of DeFazio's career.

● OR-05 (D & R) (53-44 Biden): Rep. Kurt Schrader, who has long been one of the most visible moderates in the Democratic caucus, faces a challenge from the left in a central Oregon seat that he currently represents just under half of. Schrader’s sole intra-party foe is Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who would be Oregon's first LGBTQ member of Congress and has attacked the incumbent for his ties to special interests.

McLeod-Skinner has raised a serious amount of money, but Schrader has still massively outspent her. The congressman has also received $2.1 million in outside support, with most of it coming from super PACs dedicated to electing centrist Democrats, while the Working Families Party has deployed about $340,000 for the challenger. Biden has also endorsed Schrader.

Five Republicans are facing off as well. The two serious contenders are former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who lost two competitive races for the state House in 2016 and 2018, and businessman Jimmy Crumpacker, who took fourth place in the 2020 primary for the old 2nd District.

● OR-06 (D & R) (55-42 Biden): Democrats have experienced a massively expensive nine-way race for this brand-new seat in the mid-Willamette Valley that the state earned in reapportionment, though the bulk of the outside spending has benefited just one of them. That candidate is economic development adviser Carrick Flynn, who's been backed by a staggering $11.4 million from cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried's super PAC, Protect Our Future. House Majority PAC, a decade-old group that exists to help Democrats in general elections, has also spent $940,000 to support Flynn, an unprecedented departure condemned by Sen. Jeff Merkley. A third super PAC called Justice Unites Us is running ads for Flynn as well.

The Congressional Hispanic Caucus, a heavy donor to HMP that was furious about the PAC's intervention, has spent around $1.5 million to support state Rep. Andrea Salinas, who would be Oregon’s first Latina member of Congress. The field also includes state Rep. Teresa Alonso León; self-funding perennial candidate Cody Reynolds; Oregon Medical Board member Kathleen Harder; former Multnomah County Commissioner Loretta Smith; and cryptocurrency developer Matt West, though none of them have received any outside support. An early May Salinas internal poll showed her edging out Flynn 18-14, with everyone else in single digits.

The seven-person Republican primary is similarly crowded but far cheaper. The field includes three candidates who have histories in older versions of the 5th District, from which the new 6th draws the bulk of its DNA: former Rep. Jim Bunn, who was elected to his only term in the 1994 Gingrich revolution; Mike Erickson, who was the GOP's unsuccessful 2006 and 2008 nominee for the next incarnation of the 5th; and former Keizer city councilor Amy Ryan Courser, who lost to Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in 2020. Also in the running are Army veteran Nate Sandvig, state Rep. Ron Noble, Dundee Mayor David Russ, and Air Force veteran Angela Plowhead.

Trump has no idea who is actually in Ohio’s primary, but we do. Here’s what to watch on Tuesday

Posted on May 3, 2022 by Jeff Singer

After a two-month break, the 2022 primary season picks back up Tuesday in Ohio and Indiana, and we have plenty to watch. The main event is Ohio’s massively expensive Republican primary for the state's open Senate seat, where venture capitalist J.D. Vance is hoping that a late endorsement from Donald Trump will put him over the top (even if Trump himself hasn’t bothered to remember Vance’s name), but it’s far from the only primary on tap.

Below you'll find our guide to the key primaries to watch in both states. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public. And of course, because this is a redistricting year, both states on the docket have brand-new congressional maps. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for both Indiana and Ohio.

Polls close at 6 PM ET in the portion of Indiana located in the Eastern Time Zone, while the rest of the state follows an hour later. Voting concludes in Ohio at 7:30 PM ET, and our live coverage will begin then at Daily Kos Elections. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.

● OH-Sen (R & D) (53-45 Trump): Republican Sen. Rob Portman’s retirement set off a crowded and extremely expensive GOP primary that features five serious contenders, though only one earned Donald Trump’s coveted endorsement in the final weeks of the contest. That candidate is venture capitalist J.D. Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author and one-time vociferous Trump critic who has reinvented himself as a MAGA diehard. (Trump excused his old disloyalty at a recent rally, saying that while Vance “said some bad shit about me,” each of his rivals “did also.”) A super PAC largely funded by conservative megadonor Peter Thiel has also spent heavily to support Vance and has run ads touting Trump's seal of approval.

The other hopefuls and their allies, though, are still hoping that voters won’t be so forgiving of Vance’s past impieties. Former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who lost the 2012 Senate race to Democrat Sherrod Brown, and his backers at the Club for Growth have continued airing ads highlighting Vance’s old anti-Trump comments. Wealthy businessman Mike Gibbons, who took second in the 2018 Senate primary, has also spent heavily on his own commercials, though he’s continued to focus on bashing Mandel.

Listen to a breakdown of the May primaries on Daily Kos Elections’ The Downballot podcast with David Nir and David Beard

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Another candidate to watch is Portman’s choice, former State Party Chair Jane Timken, though her decision to stop airing ads on broadcast TV late in the race is an ominous sign for her chances. Finally, there’s state Sen. Matt Dolan, who co-owns Cleveland's Major League Baseball team. Dolan, who is the one major candidate to condemn the Big Lie, has used his personal resources to run commercials touting himself as a more traditional conservative. Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly attacked him for changing his team's name to the Guardians last year, a decision the state senator says he wasn’t involved in.

We’ve seen a few polls since Vance won Trump’s endorsement, and they indicate he still doesn’t have the nod locked up. A Fox News survey found Vance leading Mandel by a small 23-18 margin, though Vance’s super PAC allies see him defeating the former treasurer 31-19. The Democratic firm Blueprint Polling, meanwhile, shows Dolan edging out Vance 18-17, with Gibbons and Mandel at 13% and 12%, respectively.

Things are far less chaotic on the Democratic side, where Rep. Tim Ryan enjoys a huge financial edge over Morgan Harper, a former adviser to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Joyce Beatty for renomination in 2020, as well as two little-known candidates.

The previews that follow are ordered by poll closing times and then race, with statewide contests first.

● IN-01 (R) (53-45 Biden): Seven Republicans are competing to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in this constituency in the northwestern corner of the state that changed minimally in redistricting, though the only two who have spent serious sums are former LaPorte Mayor Blair Milo and Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green. Milo, who went on to serve in Gov. Eric Holcomb’s administration, entered the primary as the frontrunner, but Green has aired ads arguing that the former mayor is a "Never Trump liberal" who refused to back Trump in 2016.

● IN-09 (R) (63-35 Trump): Nine Republicans are running to succeed GOP Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, who unexpectedly announced in January that he would retire after just three terms, in this south-central Indiana seat that shifted eastward but remains a conservative bastion. Of the four most notable contenders, perhaps the most familiar name is former Rep. Mike Sodrel, who lost his bid for a second term in a far-more competitive version of the 9th in 2006 and waged failed campaigns to reclaim it over the following two cycles. Sodrel has mostly been self-funding his latest comeback bid, which has allowed him to outspend his many rivals.

Former state Sen. Erin Houchin, who took second to Hollingsworth in 2016, is also trying again, and she’s benefited from almost $500,000 in aid from the cryptocurrency-aligned PAC American Dream Federal Action. Another name to watch is Army veteran Stu Barnes-Israel, who has also received over $900,000 in support from a group called Hoosier Values. (This post has been updated to reflect that PAC’s spending.) Rounding out the field is state Rep. J. Michael Davisson, who was appointed to the legislature last fall to succeed his late father, but he’s spent almost nothing.

● OH-Gov (R & D) (53-45 Trump): Republican Gov. Mike DeWine faces three intra-party foes, with former Rep. Jim Renacci looking like the most serious of the bunch—but that might be giving the ex-congressman too much credit. Renacci, who lost the 2018 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, has spent his time trashing DeWine's handling of the pandemic, and he’s used his personal resources to self-fund most of his race. (“Why waste time trying to raise money when you’re running against an incumbent?” the former congressman recently mused.) However, DeWine and his allies have still enjoyed a massive financial edge.

The contest also includes farmer Joe Blystone and former state Rep. Ron Hood, who badly lost last year's special election primary for the 15th Congressional District, and a recent poll indicates that they’re costing Renacci some vital anti-incumbent votes. A Fox News survey released in the final week of the primary gave DeWine a 43-24 advantage over the former congressman, with Blystone at 19%.

The Democratic primary is a duel between two former mayors who each left office at the start of the year: Cincinnati's John Cranley and Dayton's Nan Whaley. Cranley has enjoyed a modest spending edge, while Whaley has the support of Brown, who is Ohio’s most prominent Democrat. Cranley went negative about two weeks ahead of Election Day with an attention-grabbing ad in which he compared the performance of Cincinnati with Dayton's during the two ex-mayors' time in office.

● OH-09 (R) (51-48 Trump): GOP mapmakers sought to weaken 20-term Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who has served in the House longer than any woman in history, by gerrymandering her Toledo-area seat, which under the old lines voted 59-40 for Biden. Two Republican state legislators are now running to take her on. State Sen. Theresa Gavarone enjoys the support of 5th District Rep. Bob Latta, who currently represents just over half the new 9th. State Rep. Craig Riedel, meanwhile, is backed by the infamous Jim Jordan, and he’s run ads pledging to join Jordan’s Freedom Caucus.

Riedel has dominated the airwaves, with AdImpact reporting that he’d outspent Gavarone $290,000 to $43,000 on commercials going into the final week. J.R. Majewski, a conservative activist who has links to the QAnon conspiracy cult, has also generated some attention, but he has significantly fewer resources than either of his two rivals.

● OH-11 (D) (78-21 Biden): Rep. Shontel Brown faces a Democratic primary rematch against former state Sen. Nina Turner, a prominent Bernie Sanders supporter whom she defeated in last year's special election in a 50-45 upset. Turner is hoping that she’ll gain ground now that the district has been redrawn to include all of her old base in Cleveland, but this time, she’s at a huge financial disadvantage as she goes up against the incumbent. Democratic Majority for Israel PAC, AIPAC, and the crypto industry-aligned Protect Our Future PAC have been airing ads in support of Brown, while Turner hasn’t benefited from any major outside spending. The congresswoman also earned an endorsement on Friday from President Biden.

● OH-13 (R) (51-48 Biden): This seat in the southern suburbs of Akron and Cleveland, which is a radically reconfigured mashup of five old districts, is open thanks to some unusual circumstances: Two incumbents might've sought reelection here, but one, Democrat Tim Ryan, is running for Senate while another, Republican Anthony Gonzalez, opted to retire after voting to impeach Trump.

That's left us with a seven-way GOP primary, though Trump-endorsed attorney Madison Gesiotto Gilbert has decisively outspent her intraparty rivals. The field also includes former congressional aide Shay Hawkins, who lost a close 2020 race for the state House and whom The New York Times says is the one contender to air any TV ads. The winner will take on state Rep. Emilia Sykes, who faces no opposition in the Democratic primary.

Tuesday will be an exciting night, so we hope you’ll join us for our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections!

GOP congressman ends re-election bid after new map leaves him in tough primary vs. Trump-backed foe

Posted on April 6, 2022 by Jeff Singer

Republican Rep. Bob Gibbs said Wednesday that he was ending his re-election bid for Ohio’s 7th Congressional District, a surprising announcement that came well after candidate filing closed and days following the start of early voting for the state’s May 3 primary. The six-term congressman’s abrupt retirement leaves former Trump aide Max Miller as the frontrunner to claim a seat in the Canton area and Akron suburbs that Trump would have carried 54-45. Gibbs’ name will remain on the ballot, but the secretary of state’s office says that any votes cast for him will not be counted.

Gibbs used his departure announcement to express his anger at the state Supreme Court, which is not scheduled to rule on the fate of the new GOP-drawn congressional map until well after the primary. “It is irresponsible to effectively confirm the congressional map for this election cycle seven days before voting begins,” said the incumbent, “especially in the Seventh Congressional District, where almost 90 percent of the electorate is new and nearly two-thirds is an area primarily from another district, foreign to any expectations or connection to the current Seventh District.” To put it another way, a mere 9% of the residents of the new 7th are already Gibbs' constituents, so he would have been campaigning in largely unfamiliar turf.

Miller, by contrast, began the cycle by running against Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, who has since announced his own retirement, in the old 16th District, which makes up 65% of the new 7th. Miller, who was one of Trump’s favorite aides (an unnamed source told Politico that the two “had … kind of a unique ‘bro’ relationship”) received his old boss’ backing last year against Gonzalez, who voted for impeachment.

Miller ended up taking on Gibbs after redistricting led them to seek the same seat, and Trump’s spokesperson said last month that the endorsement carried over to Miller’s new campaign against the far-more loyal incumbent. Miller last year also filed a defamation lawsuit against his ex-girlfriend, former White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham, after she accused him of physically attacking her in 2020.

Gibbs himself got his start in elected office in 2002 when he won a seat in the Ohio state House, and he won a promotion six years later to the state Senate. Gibbs in 2009 set his sights on challenging Democratic Rep. Zack Space in the now-defunct 18th Congressional District, a historically red area in the eastern part of the state that had favored John McCain 52-45, but he had to get past seven fellow Republicans in the following year’s primary first.

Gibbs (who happened to share a name with the Obama White House’s press secretary), had the support of the party establishment, including House Minority Leader John Boehner, and he benefited after tea party activists failed to back a single alternative. The state senator ultimately beat 2008 nominee Fred Dailey, who had lost to Space 60-40, in a 20.9-20.7 squeaker, though it took another month to confirm Gibbs’ 156-vote victory.

The general election turned out to be a far easier contest for Gibbs in what was rapidly turning into a GOP wave year. Space went on the offensive early by portraying his opponent as a tax hiker and a supporter of free trade agreements, but Gibbs ended up unseating him in a 54-40 landslide. Redistricting two years later left the new congressman with a new district, now numbered the 7th, that was largely unfamiliar to him, but unlike in 2022, he faced no serious intra-party opposition in this red constituency. Democrats in 2018 hoped that well-funded Navy veteran Ken Harbaugh could give Gibbs a serious fight, but the congressman decisively turned him back 59-41.