MAGA’s most hated Republican plans to keep us guessing about his reelection plans a while longer

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Mitt Romney tells the Wall Street Journal in a new interview that he remains undecided about seeking a second term as Utah's junior senator after spending the last few years as the Republican that MAGA world most loves to hate, and everyone's going to stay in suspense for a while longer. Romney reaffirmed his intention to make up his mind in the fall and added that the verdict could come, in the paper's words, "possibly around October."

As Romney deliberates, another prominent Republican, state House Speaker Brad Wilson, continues to raise money and secure endorsements for his own potential campaign, but Wilson is also keeping the Beehive State guessing as to whether he's actually willing to run against the incumbent. The speaker formed an exploratory committee in April—a move that the Salt Lake Tribune said infuriated Romney's camp—and his spokesperson now says that Wilson is "exploring his own potential race, irrespective of what other potential candidates may or may not do." However, the Journal writes that, according to unnamed sources, Wilson is indeed waiting to see what the senator will do.

Conservative hardliners, though, may not be satisfied if Wilson does end up taking on the 2012 presidential nominee. The speaker told Fox 13 in April that he was someone who could “get a lot of people with very differing opinions together and get them to work together on hard things and solve hard challenges,” which is not what you'd normally expect to hear from a member of Trump’s GOP.

Wilson's team does seem to realize that running as a bipartisan problem solver isn't a winning strategy, though: His campaign rolled out endorsements earlier this month from fellow legislators that featured testimonials calling him a "conservative champion" and someone who worked to "advance pro-life legislation." (Altogether, three-quarters of House Republicans and two-thirds of the Senate caucus backed him.) However, while Wilson has indeed helped pass anti-abortion legislation, the Associated Press also noted that he helped stop the legislature from formally rebuking none other than Romney in 2020 for his vote to convict Trump during his first impeachment trial.

Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs offered Romney haters a more ideologically pure option in May when he kicked off his challenge by proclaiming that "the only thing I've seen him fight for are the establishment, wokeness, open borders, impeaching President Trump, and putting us even deeper into debt." Staggs, though, turned in a weak opening fundraising quarter by bringing in just $170,000 through June and self-funding another $50,000; Wilson, by contrast, raised $1 million and threw down another $1.2 million of his own money. (Romney himself only raised $350,000 from donors while bringing in another $710,000 by renting out his fundraising list.)

Two other prominent hardliners have publicly or privately talked about taking on Romney, but neither appears excited about the idea. Former Rep. Jason Chaffetz told ABC News last week that, while he hasn't ruled out running for Romney's Senate seat, he's more interested in a bid for governor at some point. When the Deseret News inquired if he was thinking about waging a GOP primary battle this cycle against Gov. Spencer Cox, who like Romney wants the GOP to move on from Trump, Chaffetz replied, "Not making any decisions yet on anything. Some day, some time I am interested in running for governor."

Attorney General Sean Reyes, meanwhile, once looked like an all but certain Romney foe; Politico even reported in March of 2022 that Reyes was "preparing" a bid and would "make a final decision and likely announce his intentions" two months hence. Reyes, however, still has yet to say anything about his plans well over a year later, and he wouldn't offer a comment when ABC contacted him earlier this month.

But Romney himself may be his own biggest obstacle towards renomination, as a July survey from Noble Predictive Insights gave him an upside-down 43-54 favorable rating with Utah Republicans. (NPI, which sometimes works for conservative groups, sampled 301 Republicans, which is one more than the minimum that Daily Kos Elections requires before we'll write up a survey and analyze it; the firm did not mention a client.) The poll did show Romney beating Reyes 30-13 in a hypothetical seven-way matchup as Wilson grabbed at 5%, but that's still a weak position for any incumbent to find themselves in.

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Three House members could soon make their exits—and more will join them

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Politico relays that Georgia Rep. David Scott's colleagues in the Democratic caucus "widely expect him not to run" again in his dark blue seat; Scott, who has a history of siding with Republicans, has not commented publicly, though. Two House Republicans who identify with the declining institutionalist wing of the GOP, Arkansas' Steve Womack and Idaho's Mike Simpson, tell the Washington Post in a separate report that they're considering retiring from their safely red seats.

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We’ll start with Scott, whose performance as the top Democrat on the Agriculture Committee has been the subject of much intra-party frustration. His lack of a response to Republican efforts to cut food assistance programs—in a new report, Politico says that he hasn't held a single press conference on the topic this year—apparently prompted Democrats to form a special task force, led by Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson, to take point on the issue.

The unusual move seems to have been prompted by concerns about Scott's health. Last year, Politico reported that people close to Scott "acknowledged he’s noticeably slowed in the last few years, citing his increasingly halting speech and trouble at times focusing on a topic."

Politico's article this week says that Scott "no longer speaks with reporters in the halls of the Capitol"; in June, when one reporter was actually able to ask the congressman how a hearing had gone, the congressman replied, "I don't know." "There are real questions about whether he’s with it," an unnamed House colleague told Politico of the 78-year-old Georgian.

Scott, who was first elected in 2002 with support from his late brother-in-law, the legendary Atlanta Braves Hall of Famer Hank Aaron, has long been one of the more conservative members of his caucus. The Democrat crossed party lines in 2016 to back Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson’s bid for reelection, declaring, "He's my friend. He's my partner. And I always look out for my partners." Scott, who donated to Utah GOP Rep. Mia Love's campaign that year, has also sided with Republicans to undermine regulations aimed at reining in predatory payday lenders and preventing auto dealers from charging higher interest rates to people of color.

If the congressman does surprise his colleagues and run again, though, his renomination in this safely blue suburban Atlanta seat is hardly assured. Scott unexpectedly earned just 53% of the vote in a crowded 2020 primary against several underfunded foes—just a few points more than the majority he needed to avert a runoff against former state Rep. Keisha Waites. (Waites, who is now a member of the Atlanta City Council, took 25%.) The incumbent did better last cycle when he turned back South Fulton City Councilor Mark Baker 66-13, though that performance wasn't emphatic for a longtime incumbent.

Meanwhile there’s Womack, a self-described "institution guy" who told the Post's Paul Kane that the far-right's antics have made serving in D.C. "so unpleasant" that he's weighing retirement and would decide whether he's had enough around Labor Day. After the article was published, though, the seven-term congressman backtracked somewhat.

"To be clear, I am frustrated with the state of play in Congress," he tweeted. "[H]owever I have every intention of running for reelection and using my work to fix the institution I love." He still left the door open to leaving, though. "I have always used Labor Day as the time frame for these decisions," he continued. "I take nothing for granted and I’m honored every day to serve my constituents in Arkansas’ Third District."

But while Womack, in Kane's words, is tired of seeing "his party’s leadership kowtowing to a small band of hard-right lawmakers," the story notes that his friends fear one of those hardliners would simply replace him in this northeast Arkansas seat. Womack himself has never had trouble winning renomination, though that hardly means he'd be in for another easy campaign if he ran again: Last year, Rep. French Hill, another member of the GOP minority that recognized Biden's victory, only won his primary for the neighboring 2nd District by a relatively soft 59-41 margin against a foe who was happy to spread the Big Lie.

Simpson, finally, made it clear he shares Womack's grievances. "I think there’s a lot of people like that, to tell you the truth," he told Kane." It’s just people considering: Is this really worth it?" And the answer for the Idaho Republican may be no: "Right now, I’m running again," he said before, as Kane puts it, "pausing for effect" and finishing, "Right now." Unlike Womack, though, Simpson did not provide a timeline for when he expects to make up his mind.

The 72-year-old Simpson is only six years older than his likeminded colleague from the South, but unlike Womack, Simpson just had to fend off an organized attempt to beat him in last year's primary. In that matchup, the incumbent fended off attorney Bryan Smith 55-33 after an expensive fight for an eastern Idaho constituency Simpson first won in 1998. The congressman, who had also turned back Smith 62-38 in 2014, didn't come close to losing, but his declining vote share could foreshadow more tough races to come―if he tries to stick around, that is.

No matter what Womack, Simpson, or Scott do in 2024, however, there's almost certainly plenty of other House members from both parties who are thinking about whether they want to remain in office. Currently just two representatives―California Democrat Grace Napolitano and Indiana Republican Victoria Spartz—have announced they're leaving the chamber and not campaigning for another office. And while just two outright retirements might seem like very few so far, that's in keeping with patterns over the last two decades.

According to data compiled by Daily Kos Elections since the 2005-06 election cycle, an average of about three House incumbents have decided to say goodbye to elective politics altogether before Aug. 1 of each odd-numbered year. That means we can expect many more to call it a career ahead of the 2024 elections, though we'll likely be waiting well into the new year for some decisions.

North Dakota could bar anyone over 80 from serving in Congress, but will the Supreme Court let it?

Posted on by Jeff Singer

North Dakota officials on Friday gave the green light to advocates for term limits to start collecting signatures for a proposed amendment to the state constitution to bar anyone older than 80 from representing the state in Congress. The measure could, however, have a tough time surviving a court challenge, though it joins a long history of conservatives testing the limits of a 1995 U.S. Supreme Court decision that held that states cannot add further qualifications to candidates for Congress beyond those outlined in the U.S. Constitution.

That 1995 ruling, known as U.S. Term Limits v. Thornton, struck down an Arkansas initiative that tried to impose term limits on members of the state's congressional delegation. The court's 5-4 decision, which saw swing Justice Anthony Kennedy join the four liberal justices, explained that the only restrictions states could impose on congressional candidates were the ones spelled out in the nation's governing document: namely, a minimum (but not maximum) age, a minimum period of U.S. citizenship, and residency in the state they're seeking to represent at the time of election. Clarence Thomas, however, wrote a dissent that three fellow conservatives joined, saying he would have allowed Arkansas' law to stand.

Last year, Republicans in Tennessee decided to test whether Thomas' views might now hold sway on the Supreme Court, whose membership is now considerably further to the right than it was three decades ago. The GOP-dominated state legislature imposed a requirement that U.S. House candidates must have voted in the previous three statewide general elections to be eligible to run, a move that seemed to be aimed at blocking Morgan Ortagus, a former State Department spokesperson, from seeking the open 5th Congressional District. (Ortagus had only relocated from D.C. in 2021.)

The bill didn't apply last cycle because Gov. Bill Lee only allowed it to become law after the candidate filing deadline had passed. However, the state GOP's executive committee later used a different state law to eject Ortagus and two others from the ballot for not meeting the party's definition of a "bona fide" Republican. At least two of the plan's proponents, though, had much more than 2022 in mind, as they explicitly said they hoped the Supreme Court would overturn U.S. Term Limits. First, though, a candidate impacted by the law would have to file suit, which has not yet happened.

In North Dakota, meanwhile, organizers are seeking to collect signatures to impose a different requirement that, like Tennessee's, also isn't found in the constitution. The proposed amendment would forbid anyone who would turn 81 before the end of their term from being elected or appointed to Congress. The measure also includes a section saying that, in the event that the courts block this maximum age limit, a "ballot advisory" would appear next to the names of congressional candidates on the ballot informing voters how old they'd be when their term would end.

The effort is being spearheaded by Jared Hendrix, a GOP party official who played a key role in electing and defending members of the legislature's far-right "Bastiat Caucus" (named after the 19th century French economist who championed free markets) and last year helped pass a term-limits measure applying to the governor and state legislators. Hendrix tells the Associated Press' Jack Dura that his group is aiming to get the measure on the June primary ballot rather than wait for next year's general election, saying, "Our plan is to aggressively and quickly gather signatures before cold weather hits."

Hendrix and his allies have until Feb. 12 to turn in about 31,200 signatures, a figure that represents 2% of the state's population (North Dakota is the only state that doesn't have voter registration) in order to meet his timeline; if they submit in their petitions later, the amendment wouldn't go before voters until November 2024. No matter what, though, it would only take a simple majority to pass the proposal at the ballot box.

Congressional elections could experience some major changes coast to coast if the Supreme Court were to chart a new course, but it wouldn't immediately impact any of the three members of the Peace Garden State's all-GOP delegation. Sens. John Hoeven and Kevin Cramer are 66 and 62, respectively, while Rep. Kelly Armstrong is 46. Of course, many members of Congress have served (or currently serve) into their 80s and even beyond: Texas Rep. Ralph Hall was 91 when his career came to an end, while South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond remained in office until he was 100.

She helped Michigan adopt fair districts. Now she’s running for one of them

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Attorney Jessica Swartz on Wednesday became the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga in Michigan's 4th District, a historically red constituency around Kalamazoo that Donald Trump would have taken by a small 51-47 margin in 2020. Swartz, though, said that Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer carried it last year, and new numbers from Daily Kos Elections find the governor did indeed prevail by a tight 50-49 as she was pulling off a 54-44 statewide landslide.

The Democrat is a first-time candidate, though she's not quite a political novice. Swartz previously volunteered for Voters Not Politicians, a nonpartisan organization that successfully promoted a 2018 referendum to create Michigan's independent redistricting commission. That body ended up drawing a map for the 2022 elections that led Huizenga, who'd previously represented the reliably red 2nd District along the western Michigan coast, to run for the more competitive 4th even though he only represented about a quarter of the new seat.

For months it looked like there would be an incumbent vs. incumbent primary clash between the Trump-backed Huizenga and longtime Rep. Fred Upton, who'd voted to impeach the GOP's leader after the Jan. 6 attack, but Upton ended up retiring ahead of what would have been a challenging race. Swartz, in an interview with the Holland Sentinel, argued the district needed someone more like Upton, whom she praised for working across party lines and providing for his constituents, than the hard-right Huizenga.

Huizenga, who won his last race 54-42 against an underfunded Democrat, finished June with $630,000 in the bank, though it's possible he won't use it on this contest. The congressman has expressed interest a few times this year in running for Michigan's open Senate seat, with his most recent public comments coming from a May interview with the conservative site The Dispatch. Huizenga acknowledged the state presents a "tough environment" for his party, but while he said he was "hoping to have a decision probably this quarter," June 30 came and went without any word about his plans. 

Democrat launches rematch for one of the bluest GOP-held seats in the nation

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Former Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas on Tuesday launched his long-awaited rematch against Republican Rep. David Valadao, who beat him last year 52-48 after an intensely expensive battle for California's 22nd District. Joe Biden carried this district, which is based in the southern Central Valley and eastern Bakersfield area, by a 55-42 margin in 2020, which makes it one of the bluest seats the GOP holds nationally; only New York's Long Island-based 4th would have favored Biden by a larger margin.

Valadao, though, has a long history of running well ahead of the top of his party's ticket, and both parties are prepared for another pricey battle. The congressman himself raised $710,000 during the second quarter of the year, and he finished June with $980,000 in the bank.

The incumbent proved he wasn't quite invincible in 2018 when Democrat TJ Cox narrowly denied him a fourth term in what was one of the biggest shocks of that year's blue wave, but Valadao won their second bout the following cycle by a tight 50.4-49.6 margin as Biden was carrying the old version of the seat, then numbered the 21st District, 54-44.

A third successive major battle ensued the following cycle, though Democrats had hopes of avoiding Valadao altogether. Just days after being sworn in for his new stint in the 117th Congress, Valadao became one of the 10 Republicans to vote to impeach Donald Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 attack, a decision Democrats thought might again cost him his seat—this time, in the top-two primary.

It almost did. The House Majority PAC, a top Democratic super PAC, aired commercials ahead of the primary aimed at boosting Valadao's far-right intra-party foe, former Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys, by ostensibly attacking him as "100% pro-Trump and proud." The congressman's allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund, though, deployed even more money on their own ad campaign to sink Mathys, an investment that helped Valadao fend off the upstart 26-23 for the second spot in the general election. (Salas, the only Democrat on the ballot, easily took first with 45% of the vote.)

Despite the fact that Valadao had survived his brush with Mathys, Democrats still believed that Salas, who had established a moderate image in the legislature, would still put up a strong fight, especially since the state's independent Redistricting Commission had made the district a bit bluer. Republicans, though, did all they could to puncture Salas' centrist profile by trying to link him to a 2017 bill that increased the state's gas tax to fund road repairs even though he'd voted against that legislation.

Both parties were also aware that, since Democrats historically struggle to turn out their Central Valley base in non-presidential years, the electorate would be considerably more conservative than the one that delivered Biden his 13-point win. Altogether HMP, CLF, and their respective allies at the DCCC and NRCC collectively spent $22 million—more than they put into any other single House race in America last year.

Valadao ended up prevailing by a 3-point margin in a race that took weeks to call, though he actually ran slightly behind Republican Brian Dahle's 4-point win over Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom here. Valadao's victory made him, along with Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of only two Republicans who'd favored impeachment to return for another term. Salas, however, quickly filed paperwork for a second go-round, and Inside Elections wrote in June that Democratic operatives were convinced he'd face little intra-party opposition.

The former assemblyman kicked off that new effort on Tuesday with a video portraying Valadao as a puppet for Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the "Trump lackey [and] insurrection apologist" who represents the neighboring 20th District. Salas himself also noted he'd be "the first ever-Central Valley Latino" to serve in the House. (Valadao is one of several people of Portuguese descent who has represented this heavily Latino area.) The NRCC, meanwhile, quickly made it clear it would reprise the same tax attacks it used against Salas last time.

Mondaire Jones returns home for a comeback bid

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones announced on Wednesday that he'd seek the Democratic nomination to take on freshman Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in New York's 17th District, a lower Hudson Valley constituency that Joe Biden carried 54-44 in 2020. Jones, who unsuccessfully ran in New York City last year because of a strange set of redistricting-induced circumstances, used his intro video to emphasize his local roots in Rockland County and record securing funds for the area during his one term in D.C.

Before Jones can focus on reclaiming this seat, though, he has to get through what could be an expensive primary against local school board member Liz Gereghty, the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Gereghty, who launched her campaign in mid-May, announced this week that she'd raised $400,000 though the end of last month. The field also includes former Bedford Town Supervisor MaryAnn Carr, but it remains to be seen if she'll have the resources to run a strong campaign.

In the 2020 election cycle, Jones sought what was, at the time, a safely blue seat held by Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey. Lowey, however, retired soon after Jones launched his campaign, and he won a competitive, multi-way battle for the Democratic nomination. Jones made history with his comfortable victory that fall by becoming the first openly gay black member of Congress, a distinction he shared with fellow New York Democrat Ritchie Torres. (It was only after she died in 1996 that news accounts identified legendary Texas Rep. Barbara Jordan as a lesbian; she never discussed her sexuality during her lifetime.)

Two years later, Jones seemed to be on track for another easy win, but everything changed after New York's highest court rejected state's new Democratic-drawn congressional map and substituted in its own lines. Fellow Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who represented a neighboring district and also chaired the DCCC, infuriated Jones and many local Democrats when he decided to seek reelection in the 17th District rather than defend the 18th, a slightly more competitive seat that included the bulk of his current constituents.

Jones decided to avoid a primary by campaigning for the open 10th District, an open seat based in Brooklyn and lower Manhattan that was far from his home turf, though he offered an explanation for his change of venue. "This is the birthplace of the LGBTQ+ rights movement," he tweeted, "Since long before the Stonewall Uprising, queer people of color have sought refuge within its borders."  

But while Jones enjoyed the support of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he had a tough time in a primary dominated by politicians with far stronger ties to New York City. Former federal prosecutor Dan Goldman, a self-funder who served as House Democrats' lead counsel during Donald Trump's first impeachment, massively outspent the rest of the field and secured the influential support of the New York Times. Goldman ultimately beat Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou in a 25-24 squeaker, while Jones finished third with 18%.

Maloney, for his part, acknowledged months before his own general election that "there are a lot of strong feelings" among Democrats who felt he'd sent Jones packing. "I think I could've handled it better," he admitted. He'd soon have more reasons for regret: One local progressive leader would recount to Slate that volunteers canvassing for Maloney would be asked, "Isn't he the guy that pushed Mondaire out of this district?" Maloney ended up losing to Lawler 50.3-49.7 at the same time that Republican Lee Zeldin was beating Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul 52-48 in the 17th, according to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux. (Ironically, Democrat Pat Ryan held the 18th District that Maloney left behind.)

Jones soon made it clear that he was interested in returning to his home base to challenge Lawler, saying in December, "I've also learned my lesson, and that is home for me is in the Hudson Valley." (The Daily Beast reported in February that Jones hadn't ruled out waging a primary against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but there was little indication he'd ever seriously considered the idea.)

The once and perhaps future congressman continues to express strong feelings about how the midterm elections went down. "I never imagined that I would wake up one day and would have to decide against primarying a member of the Democratic Party at a time when we were seeing an assault on our democracy," he told News12 Westchester on Wednesday. "To that extent, yeah, I do regret not being the Democratic nominee last cycle."

Gereghty's team, though, made it clear they'd use his campaign in New York City against him. "Liz Whitmer Gereghty has lived in the Hudson Valley for 20 years," her campaign said in a statement, "and the reason you'll never see her moving to Brooklyn to chase a congressional seat is because the only place and only people she wants to represent are right here in the Hudson Valley."

The fate of Texas’ impeached attorney general rests in hands of 31 state senators―including his wife

Posted on (Updated by Jeff Singer

The Texas State Senate on Monday passed a resolution declaring that its trial for Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom the state House impeached over corruption allegations two days before, must begin by Aug. 28. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who like Paxton and every other statewide official is a Republican, is tasked with choosing the starting date and presiding over the tribunal. It would take two-thirds of the 31-member chamber, where the GOP holds a 19-12 majority, to convict Paxton and thus bar him from ever holding state office again.

Paxton will remain suspended until a verdict is reached, and Assistant Attorney General Brent Webster, who joined his boss in trying to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 win, automatically assumed the office. Gov. Greg Abbott has not yet said if he’d select someone to take over from Webster, a key Paxton ally who used his first day on the job to praise the scandal-ridden attorney general in an email to staffers.

If the Senate removed Paxton, though, election law professor Quinn Yeargain writes in Guaranteed Republics that Abbott would be tasked with picking a replacement, and that this person would require the support of two-thirds of the Senate in order to be confirmed. Yeargain adds that a November 2024 special election would take place for the final two years of Paxton’s term should he be convicted.

This could be a consequential pick should Abbott get to make it, as political observers point out that whoever holds the powerful post of attorney general could be the frontrunner in 2026 to succeed the governor in the event that he doesn’t seek a fourth term. (Abbott himself used this office as a springboard to the governorship in 2014.)

Yeargain, however, notes that, because Republicans are two seats shy of the two-thirds supermajority needed to unilaterally confirm a new attorney general, Democrats could try to pressure Abbott to pick someone who wouldn’t run next year. If the Senate failed to oust Paxton, though, he’d be free to run for reelection or higher office three years down the line.

It also remains to be seen if two GOP senators, Angela Paxton and Bryan Hughes, will act as jurors, though the Houston Chronicle says that two-thirds of the total body would need to vote for conviction whether or not there are any recusals. Angela Paxton is Ken Paxton’s wife, and she’s remained his close ally even though he allegedly convinced a wealthy ally named Nate Paul to hire the woman that the attorney general was having an affair with. The House’s articles of impeachment, meanwhile, accuse Paxton of utilizing Hughes as a “straw requestor” for a legal opinion used to aid Paul.

Patrick indicated that neither senator would be required to step aside, saying, “I will be presiding over that case and the senators—all 31 senators—will have a vote.” Kenneth Williams, who is a professor of criminal procedure, told the Associated Press that there wasn’t any way to prevent Angela Paxton from taking part in the proceedings, saying, “It’s up to her ethical standards and compass, basically.”

Until a week ago, it didn’t look like Ken Paxton was in any immediate danger of losing the office he was reelected to twice while under felony indictment. The attorney general was charged with securities fraud all the way back in 2015, but that trial still has yet to be scheduled. In November of 2020, the AP reported that the FBI was probing him in an unrelated matter for allegedly using his office to help Paul in exchange for favors. Four of Paxton’s former top aides also filed a whistleblower lawsuit claiming that he’d retaliated against them for helping this investigation; their suit also alleges that Webster took part in this retaliation.

Paxton and his former personnel reached a tentative settlement in February that was contingent on the Texas legislature approving $3.3 million in state funds to the quartet, but it soon became apparent that House Speaker Dade Phelan and other fellow Republicans weren’t keen to pay this. And while things seemed to stall, the House General Investigating Committee actually quietly began its own report into Paxton’s alleged misbehavior.

Paxton made news Tuesday when he called for Phelan to resign for presiding over his chamber “in a state of apparent debilitating intoxication,” but all that was overshadowed the next day when the committee unexpectedly released its report reiterating many of the allegations related to Paul. The committee, which recommended impeachment the next day, went on to say, “We cannot over-emphasize the fact that, but for Paxton’s own request for a taxpayer-funded settlement . . . Paxton would not be facing impeachment."

On Saturday, the GOP-dominated House was presented with 20 counts of impeachment. Most of the charges accused Paxton of illegally using his powers to help Paul, though some said he’d tried to interfere in the securities fraud case. Donald Trump, who endorsed the attorney general in last year’s primary, tried to pressure Republicans with a TruthSocial message threatening to “fight” anyone who voted for impeachment, while one Republican member of the General Investigating Committee claimed that Paxton himself had contacted representatives “threatening them with political consequences in their next election.”

Ultimately, though, impeachment passed 121-23, with 60 Republicans joining 61 Democrats in the affirmative. All 23 noes came from Republicans, with one member from each party voting present: The lone Democrat to do this was Harold Dutton, who infuriated his party earlier this month by backing an anti-trans bill.

Paxton characteristically responded by writing, “Phelan’s coalition of Democrats and liberal Republicans is now in lockstep with the Biden Administration, the abortion industry, anti-gun zealots, and woke corporations to sabotage my work as Attorney General.” He also predicted he’d be acquitted by the Senate where, as Yeargain writes, Angela Paxton would likely become the first person in American history to have the chance to vote on an impeached spouse’s conviction.

Washington’s Democratic governor will not seek re-election to post his party has held since 1985

Posted on by Jeff Singer

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee declared Monday that he wouldn’t seek what would have been a historic fourth term as chief executive of the Evergreen State, a move that will set off a battle to succeed him next year. Under state election law all the candidates will run on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries, and the top two contenders, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. Republicans haven’t won this office since John Spellman prevailed in 1980, though Inslee himself only narrowly prevailed the last time this post was open in 2012.

Inslee’s departure ends an electoral career that’s seen both plenty of triumphs and some big setbacks. The Democrat first won office in 1988 when he pulled off a close victory for the state House, and he sought a promotion four years later by running for the open 4th Congressional District in the rural central part of the state. Inslee managed to advance to the general election by edging out Democratic state Sen. Jim Jesernig 23-22 in the blanket primary, a precursor to the modern top-two primary, but he faced a tough fight in the fall against Republican colleague Doc Hastings.

Inslee won 51-49 at the same time that, according to analyst Kiernan Park-Egan, George H.W. Bush was carrying the seat 43-35 over Bill Clinton (independent Ross Perot secured another 22%), but he had little time to rest up. Hastings came back for a rematch in 1994 and emphasized the incumbent’s support for the Clinton administration’s assault weapons ban, a vote the Democrat would acknowledge hurt him at home. The GOP wave hit Washington hard and Hastings unseated Inslee 53-47 at the same time that Speaker Tom Foley was losing re-election to George Nethercutt in the neighboring 5th District, and both constituencies have remained in GOP hands ever since. Another victor that year was Republican Rick White, who denied 1st District Rep. Maria Cantwell a second term in the 1st District near Seattle.  

But while that disastrous cycle ended plenty of Democratic careers, Inslee was determined that his would not be one of them. The ousted congressman, who soon moved to the Puget Sound community of Bainbridge Island, announced a 1996 campaign for governor and said of his recent defeat, “What it showed was when you vote your convictions over political expediency, on occasion it's not good for your career.” Inslee, though, struggled to gain traction in a field that included the eventual winner, Democratic King County Executive Gary Locke, as well as Seattle Mayor Norm Rice, and he finished fifth in the blanket primary with just 10%.

Inslee soon set his sights on a 1998 House comeback bid against White in a constituency that, per Park-Egan, had supported Clinton 51-37 two years before. Inslee, who had no intra-party opposition this time, was in for a difficult fight in a seat both parties identified as a major battleground, and White’s 50-44 lead in the blanket primary seemed to foreshadow another uphill race for the Democrat.

White, though, wasn’t as strong as he appeared to be. The incumbent had just gone through a high-profile divorce, and he feared that the third-party candidacy of social conservative Bruce Craswell would cost him some much-needed support. Inslee, meanwhile, ran ads blasting the Republicans for waging a long impeachment battle against Clinton, which proved to be a compelling argument that year. Inslee got back to the House by winning 49.8-44.1, with Craswell taking the balance.

Inslee’s second stint in Washington, D.C., went far better for him than his first, and he never failed to win re-election by double digits. The Democrat, however, decided to give up his secure seat in 2012 for another campaign for governor even though retiring incumbent Christine Gregoire’s weak approval ratings presented a big opening for the GOP. Republicans quickly consolidated around Attorney General Rob McKenna, who had scored a 59-41 victory in 2008 during an awful year for his party, while Inslee also had no serious intra-party opposition.

Most polls through July showed McKenna in the lead but Inslee, who resigned his seat to focus on his statewide bid, worked hard to tie his opponent to unpopular national Republicans. The Democrat, in one debate, responded to the attorney general’s declaration that he didn’t want Washington to be a place where a third of residents were on Medicare by saying, “Remember when Mitt Romney talked about the 47% that just weren’t sort of part of our family in a sense? And now my opponent says that this one out of three somehow should not have insurance.” McKenna worked to win over enough Obama voters to prevail, but he wasn’t able to take quite enough. Inslee instead scored a 52-48 victory at a time when the president was carrying Washington 56-41.

The new governor got a big setback before he took office when two renegade Democrats in the state Senate, Tim Sheldon and Rodney Tom, put the GOP minority in charge of the chamber even though Democrats nominally held a 26-23 edge. Inslee himself appeared to be a tempting target for 2016 after several polls showed him with an unimpressive approval rating, but potentially strong GOP foes like McKenna and Rep. Dave Reichert demurred. The Republican who eventually stepped forward, Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant, struggled with fundraising, and the governor beat him 54-46 as Hillary Clinton was scoring a 53-37 victory here.

Inslee had a better second term, especially after a 2017 special election put his party in control of the state Senate at long last, and in 2019 he joined a crowded presidential field. The governor’s would-be successors, though, found themselves waiting for months to see if he’d turn around and seek a third term at home, which is exactly what happened when Inslee ended his White House quest in the face of poor polling. Inslee went on to become the first three-term governor since Dan Evans secured re-election in 1972 after he scored an easy 57-43 victory over far-right foe Loren Culp, a former small-town police chief who refused to recognize his landslide loss.

Another disastrous Republican candidate from last year is mulling a comeback, this time in Michigan

Posted on by Jeff Singer

The latest Michigan Republican to express interest in the state’s open Senate race is former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who ran a chaotic 2022 campaign for governor even before he was ejected from the ballot over fraudulent signatures. But Craig, who went on to wage a hopeless write-in campaign last year, remains characteristically undeterred, telling The Detroit News he’s giving a Senate effort a “real critical look” but has no timeline to make up his mind. Several more disastrous Republican candidates from last cycle are also eyeing Senate runs in other states, though unlike Craig, they were at least able to make the ballot before losing.   

Craig was the frontrunner in the summer of 2021 when he entered the GOP primary to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, though his initial announcement that he was forming an exploratory committee―an entity that doesn't actually exist under Michigan law―was an early omen about the problems ahead. Indeed, the former chief’s bid would experience several major shakeups, including the departure of two different campaign managers in less than four months.

Campaign Action

Craig, who also made news for his heavy spending, got some more unwelcome headlines in April of 2022 when Rep. Jack Bergman announced he was switching his endorsement to self-funding businessman Perry Johnson; Bergman complained that his first choice ignored "campaigning in Northern Michigan and the [Upper Peninsula] in favor of a self proclaimed Detroit-centric approach.” Still, polls showed Craig well ahead in the primary as he sought to become the Wolverine State’s first Black governor.

Everything changed in May, though, when election authorities disqualified Craig, Johnson, and three other contenders from the ballot after they fell victim to a huge fraudulent signature scandal and failed to turn in enough valid petitions. Both Craig and Johnson both unsuccessfully sued to get reinstated, but only the former chief decided to forge ahead with a write-in campaign to win the GOP nod.

Craig blustered, “I'm going to win,” but he became an afterthought even before far-right radio commentator Tudor Dixon emerged as the new frontrunner. Craig’s write-in effort ended up taking all of 2% of the vote, though he was far from willing to back Dixon after she secured the nomination that once looked his for the taking. He instead endorsed U.S. Taxpayers Party contender Donna Brandenburg, who had also been ejected from the Republican primary, saying that Dixon’s extreme opposition to abortion rights went too far even for him. Whitmer soon won 54-44, with Brandenburg in fourth with just 0.4%.

Craig’s newest campaign flirtations come at a time when no major Republicans have stepped up to run for the Senate seat held by retiring Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow. The only notable declared contender is state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, who also failed to make the primary ballot in 2020 when she tried to challenge Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin. (Dixon herself didn’t shut the door on a Senate bid right after Stabenow announced her departure in January, but we’ve heard little from her over the following three months.) Slotkin continues to have the Democratic side to herself, though actor Hill Harper reportedly plans to run and state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is publicly considering herself.

Click here to stop Republicans from snatching the Senate!

The Daily Kos Elections hour-by-hour guide to election night 2022

Posted on (Updated by Jeff Singer

Election night is almost here—Tuesday!—and we have a lot of exciting races in store across the country for Senate, governor, and House. There are also several contests for attorney general and secretary of state in swing states that could play a big role in future years in determining how elections are overseen and certified.

What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's key elections. At the top of this post is our map showing poll closing times across the country. All times are Eastern, though we also have versions of this map for each of the other U.S. time zones.

You can also find the 2020 presidential results for the nation’s new congressional districts here, as well as the results for the lines that were used in the 2020 elections. (Note that many incumbents are running in districts with different numbers than the ones they represent now.) For interactive maps of the new districts, check out Dave's Redistricting App.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races and more after the first polls close at 6 PM ET on election night, so please join us at Daily Kos Elections for our complete coverage.

6 PM ET

Indiana (Eastern Time Zone), and Kentucky (Eastern Time Zone)

The first hour of election night will be pretty quiet. Indiana Sen. Todd Young and his fellow Republican, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, are both secure, and there are no competitive House races in the eastern parts of either state.

7 PM ET

Florida (Eastern Time Zone), Indiana (rest of state), Kentucky (rest of state), Georgia, New Hampshire (most towns), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

• Florida: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has massively outraised his Democratic rival, former Rep. Charlie Crist, and it will be a true surprise if he struggles in a state that has been moving to the right in recent years. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, faces considerably better-funded opposition from Democratic Rep. Val Demings, but polls show the incumbent in good shape.

There aren’t many competitive House races because DeSantis successfully pressured the GOP legislature to aggressively gerrymander the map to create 20 districts that Donald Trump would have won versus just eight that Joe Biden would have carried: Under the old map, Trump would have won just 15 seats to Biden’s 12 (Florida gained a district thanks to reapportionment).

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the House GOP’s main super PAC, has been spending heavily in the 27th District to help freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar fend off state Sen. Annette Taddeo in a Miami-area constituency that Trump would have narrowly carried. However, House Majority PAC (HMP) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which have enjoyed access to considerably less money than their GOP rival, have not been airing ads here or in any other Florida contests.

The newly created 15th District in the Tampa and northeastern suburbs is also worth watching at just 51-48 Trump, but there hasn’t been any serious outside spending on either side. The contest pits former Republican Secretary of State Laurel Lee against Democrat Alan Cohn, a former local TV anchor who was Team Blue’s 2020 nominee, against now-Rep. Scott Franklin (who is running in the 18th).

The St. Petersburg-based 13th District, where Crist resigned over the summer to focus on his statewide bid, has also looked like a likely GOP pickup for 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna ever since the new map transformed it from a seat Biden would have taken 51-47 to one that Trump would have carried 53-46. Former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, though, has benefited from heavy spending from a PAC funded by his cousin, and a recent independent poll showed a very tight race.

Finally, we have an incumbent vs. incumbent battle in North Florida’s 2nd district between Republican Neal Dunn and Democrat Al Lawson. This new constituency is tough turf for Lawson at 55-44 Trump, and Dunn currently represents about twice as many residents here. And again, thanks to gerrymandering, the 7th in the Orlando area looks like an automatic flip for the GOP. The GOP is also well positioned to take the new 4th around Jacksonville.

• Indiana: The 1st District in the northwestern corner of the state has been safely Democratic turf for generations, but while Biden would have prevailed 53-45 here, the area’s gradual shift to the right during the Trump era gives Republicans a big opening against freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. The incumbent is trying to fend off Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green, who would be the first African American to represent Indiana in Congress, in a battle that has attracted huge spending from outside groups on both sides.

• Georgia: The biggest battle in the Peach State is the contest between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who flipped this seat in a famous 2021 special election, and former football star Herschel Walker. Georgia requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in order to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff, and Libertarian Chase Oliver’s presence on the ballot means this tight race could well go to a second round once again.

The race for governor is a rematch from the close 2018 election between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. However, most surveys show Kemp in strong shape this time around and positioned to win outright despite the candidacy of Libertarian Shane Hazel.

The only seriously contested House race in the state is the 2nd District in southwestern Georgia, a 55-44 Biden constituency where Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is trying to turn back Air Force veteran Chris West. However, while Republicans have spent months talking about taking down the 30-year incumbent, major GOP groups have stayed on the sidelines while Democrats have spent millions against West. There are no other candidates in the running, so this race will not be going to a runoff barring an exact tie. Republicans, meanwhile, should have no trouble flipping the 6th District in the Atlanta area thanks to their new gerrymander.

Two Republican incumbents who survived Trump-driven primary challenges, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr, are also seeking new four-year terms. Polls show them leading their respective Democratic opponents, state Rep. Bee Nguyen and state Sen. Jen Jordan, though they disagree on how far ahead the two Republicans are. A Libertarian is also competing in each contest.

• New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is trying to fend off retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, a Republican who has ardently embraced the Big Lie, in a state that often swings wildly between the two parties, but no one agrees just how competitive this contest really is. Most polls show a tight race, but Bolduc’s would-be backers at the Senate Leadership Fund dramatically pulled out of the state weeks before Election Day in an apparent vote of no confidence. Other right-wing groups, though, have gotten involved since then, while Hassan’s allies at Senate Majority PAC never stopped treating this as competitive.

The 1st District in the eastern half of the state has long been one of the swingiest House seats in America, and this year’s expensive matchup pits Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas against Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump White House staffer who has eagerly embraced the Big Lie. The bluer 2nd in western and northern New Hampshire has been much quieter, though HMP took action in the final week of the campaign to aid Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster against her underfunded GOP foe, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns.

• Virginia: Two Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave, 2nd District Rep. Elaine Luria and 7th District Rep. Abigail Spanberger, are engaged in competitive fights to hang on in a tough political climate. Luria, whose suburban Hampton Roads seat narrowly favored Biden, has emphasized the Jan. 6 attack in her contest against state Sen. Jen Kiggans, a Republican who voted for a $70 million “forensic audit” of the 2020 results.

Spanberger, meanwhile, is defending a dramatically redrawn seat that saw Biden’s margin of victory swell from 50-49 to 53-46 after a court-drawn map swapped out the Richmond suburbs for more Democratic areas near Washington, D.C. Spanberger’s opponent is Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, who made news for saying of pregnancies that result from rape, “[I]t's not something that's happening organically.”

Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, by contrast, is in stronger shape in the 10th District in Northern Virginia, but she still faces a well-funded challenge from Navy veteran Hung Cao. Cao released an internal poll in October showing him narrowly trailing Wexton in this 58-40 Biden seat, but that didn’t convince major GOP groups to get involved on his behalf.

7:30 PM ET

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

• North Carolina: The main draw in the Tarheel State is the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr between far-right Rep. Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as chief justice of the state Supreme Court. Most polls show a small lead for Budd in a state where Republicans have won several tight elections over the last decade.

The most expensive House race in the state, meanwhile, is the battle for the open GOP-held 13th District in the Raleigh suburbs, another seat Biden would have narrowly taken. The GOP is all in for Bo Hines, a former college football player who has weak ties to the area, while Democrats are pulling for state Sen. Wiley Nickel.

There’s also a fight for the open, Democratic-held 1st District in inland northeastern North Carolina, but Republican primary voters jeopardized their chances by ignoring the multiple abuse allegations that have been leveled against 2020 nominee Sandy Smith and nominating her again. CLF, which tried to stop Smith from winning the primary, has bypassed this race along with the NRCC, but Democrats have continued to spend millions to support state Sen. Don Davis.

• Ohio: The GOP has unexpectedly had to spend massive amounts of money to hold onto the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rob Portman, but Democrats still have a tough task in a longtime swing state that's moved hard to the right during the Trump era. The GOP nominee is venture capitalist J.D. Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author who has run a truly weak campaign, while Democrats are fielding Rep. Tim Ryan. Most polls show Vance with a small lead, but his allies are continuing to deploy money here instead of in less Trumpy states.

Team Blue is also hoping to unseat veteran Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in the Cincinnati based 1st District, which transformed from a 51-48 Trump seat to one that Biden would have won 53-45. The Democrats have nominated Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman in another very pricey House race.

Republicans, for their part, believed they’d have a strong shot at denying Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur a 21st term after they turned her reliably blue 9th District around Toledo into a 51-48 Trump constituency, but that was before they nominated QAnon ally J.R. Majewski. National Republicans abandoned Majewski in September after the AP reported that he'd lied about serving in Afghanistan, but Kaptur’s allies have continued to spend like he’s a threat.

Finally, there’s a spendy race in the open Democratic-held 13th, a 51-48 Biden seat in the Akron and Canton areas, between Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who served as a Women for Trump co-chair. Republicans have spent heavily to link Sykes, who is Black, to crime by citing her support for a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill that never became law.

8 PM ET

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (rest of state), Illinois, Kansas (Central Time Zone), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Eastern Time Zone), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (rest of state), New Jersey, North Dakota (Central Time Zone), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central Time Zone), Tennessee, Texas (Central Time Zone), Washington, D.C.

• Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont won a tight 2018 race against Republican Bob Stefanowski, but most polls show Lamont well-positioned in this year’s rematch between the two wealthy candidates. Surveys also show Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal similarly situated against Leora Levy, who is Trump’s former ambassador to Chile.

The big contest in the Nutmeg State is in the 5th District in northwestern Connecticut, where Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes faces a tough fight against former state Sen. George Logan. Biden would have won 55-44 here, but both parties have dropped millions on this race since Labor Day.

• Illinois: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his allies worked hard during the June primary to influence Republicans to nominate far-right state Sen. Darren Bailey instead of a candidate with a more appealing profile, and independent polls show the incumbent well ahead in this blue state. Still, conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein has continued to pump money into an uphill effort to beat the governor.

Democratic legislators, meanwhile, drew up a congressional map under which Biden would have carried 14 of the 17 seats, compared to 12 of the 18 existing districts (Illinois lost a seat after the 2020 census), but Team Blue still has several tough fights.

The most competitive race in the state is arguably the battle to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos in the 17th District, a north-central Illinois seat that shifted from 50-48 Trump to 53-45 Biden. Both sides have spent heavily in the contest between 2020 Republican nominee Esther Joy King, who came close to beating Bustos last time, and former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen, who would be the state’s first gay member of Congress.

Former Biden administration official Nikki Budzinski appears to be in better shape further to the south in the open 13th District, a GOP-held seat that dramatically transformed from 51-47 Trump to 54-43 Biden. Republican Regan Deering, whose family ran the agribusiness giant Archer-Daniels-Midland for more than 40 years, stepped up after Rep. Rodney Davis decided to wage an unsuccessful primary bid against far-right colleague Mary Miller in the 15th District rather than defend this unfavorable turf, but major GOP outside groups have sat on the sidelines. The DCCC also cut its planned spending a month ago in an optimistic sign for Budzinski, but HMP has continued to run ads here.

A trio of Democratic incumbents in the Chicago suburbs, though, are looking vulnerable in the final days of the race. Both HMP and CLF rushed in with ads in the final week in the 6th District, where Rep. Sean Casten faces Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau. The far-right Club for Growth, meanwhile, has spent over $1 million on a late attempt to help former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf take down 11th District Rep. Bill Foster. HMP, finally, began airing ads late in the race to aid 14th District Rep. Lauren Underwood against Kendall County Board Chair Scott Gryder. The most competitive of these seats is the 6th, which still went for Biden 55-44.

• Kansas: Laura Kelly, who is the only Democratic governor running for re-election this year in a Trump state, faces a difficult battle against Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Complicating things for Schmidt, though, is the independent candidacy of ultra-conservative state Sen. Dennis Pyle. There have been very few polls here, though the DGA and RGA both spent here until the very end.

The contest for the 3rd District in the Kansas City suburbs, meanwhile, is a rematch between Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and former state GOP chair Amanda Adkins. Davids won their 2020 bout 54-44 as Biden was winning the seat by that same margin, but Republican legislators overrode Kelly’s veto and gerrymandered this seat into one Biden would have taken only 51-47. Limited polling has still had Davids ahead.

• Maine: Democratic Gov. Janet Mills faces a high-profile challenge from her far-right predecessor, Paul LePage. While there have been few surveys released here, the ones we’ve seen have shown Mills with a decided advantage.

Over in northern Maine’s 2nd District, which Trump would have taken 52-46, Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is waging an expensive fight against the man he unseated in 2018, Republican Bruce Poliquin. The Pine Tree State uses instant runoff voting for congressional (but not state) elections, and independent Tiffany Bond’s presence on the ballot could keep either Golden or Poliquin from securing an outright majority. Officials say they’ll do any ranked choice tabulations the week after the election.

• Maryland: Author and former nonprofit head Wes Moore should have no trouble beating far-right Del. Dan Cox in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Larry Hogan in heavily Democratic Maryland, a win that would make Moore only the third African American elected to lead any state.

There’s more drama in the rematch between 6th District Democratic Rep. David Trone, who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, and Republican state Del. Neil Parrott. Trone beat Parrott 59-39 last cycle as Biden was carrying the old version of the seat by a similar 61-38 spread, but the redrawn incarnation would have favored Biden only 54-44. However, no major outside groups have waded into the race for this district, which includes western Maryland and part of the D.C. area.

• Massachusetts: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker’s decision not to seek a third term immediately made Massachusetts one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the country, and polls show Attorney General Maura Healey easily beating her Trumpist foe, former GOP state Rep. Geoff Diehl. Healey would be the first lesbian elected governor anywhere. None of the state's House races appear competitive.

• Michigan: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and her allies have massively outspent her hard-right opponent, former conservative talk show host Tudor Dixon, who never quite locked down full-fledged financial backing from her wealthiest benefactors, the DeVos family. Polls have shown Dixon coming closer as Election Day nears, but most surveys still have Whitmer with the advantage in this swing state.

Both parties are also seriously contesting a trio of House races in a state where an independent redistricting commission drew the lines after decades of GOP gerrymanders. The most dramatic change came about in the 3rd District in the Grand Rapids area, which transformed from a 51-47 Trump constituency to one Biden would have carried 53-45. Democrats also got a bigger opening when former Trump administration official John Gibbs (with an assist from the DCCC) denied renomination to freshman Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. The Democrats are once again fielding Hillary Scholten, an attorney who lost a competitive 2020 battle against Meijer.

Over in the revamped 7th District in Lansing, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to fend off hardline state Sen. Tom Barrett in one of the most expensive House races in the nation for a seat that Biden very narrowly took. There’s another major battle next door in the new 8th around Flint and the Tri-Cities areas, where Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is defending a 50-48 Biden constituency. Kildee’s foe is Paul Junge, another Trump alum who lost to Slotkin in 2020 for the old 8th District―a seat that doesn’t overlap at all with this new district.

Two-time Republican Senate nominee John James, though, is in a strong position to flip the 10th in the Detroit suburbs, which is open because Democratic Rep. Andy Levin unsuccessfully ran against fellow incumbent Haley Stevens in the primary for the safer 11th District instead of running here. James narrowly lost this seat in 2020 against Democratic Sen. Gary Peters as Trump was barely winning it, but major Democratic groups haven’t spent money to help former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga. 

Finally, two statewide Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off a team of election deniers. Attorney General Dana Nessel is going up against Matthew DePerno, while Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faces Kristina Karamo.

• New Jersey: Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski has a tough task ahead of him in his 7th District rematch against former state Senate Republican leader Tom Kean Jr., the son and namesake of a popular governor from the 1980s. Malinowski only turned back Kean 51-49 in 2020 even as Biden was prevailing 54-44, and the new congressional map slashed Biden’s margin in this North Jersey seat down to 51-47.

Three of Malinowski’s Democratic colleagues got much more favorable seats following redistricting, though a few could still be vulnerable in a sufficiently rough year for Team Blue. Rep. Andy Kim is competing against wealthy yacht manufacturer Bob Healey in South Jersey’s new 3rd District, which transformed from one of the closest seats in the nation into one that would have favored Biden 56-42. National groups have largely bypassed this seat, though a super PAC funded by Healey’s mother has spent millions.

Two North Jersey Democrats, 5th District Rep. Josh Gottheimer and 11th District Rep. Mikie Sherrill, are also favored in seats that Biden would have decisively carried. House Majority PAC and its allies at VoteVets recently began spending against their respective GOP foes, Frank Pallotta and Paul DeGroot, though Politico reported that this involvement came about because former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg wanted to "steer[] money" to both races after making large donations to HMP.

• Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt had long looked secure in one of the reddest states in the nation, but he’s been on the receiving end of heavy spending by groups that want him gone. In a shocker, several polls have shown Stitt locked in a close race against state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, who left the GOP last year to challenge him as a Democrat. Stitt’s allies at the RGA are leaving nothing to chance as they got involved late with ads tying Hofmeister to unpopular national Democrats.

• Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is home to one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation as Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and former TV personality Mehmet Oz face off to succeed Oz’s fellow Republican, retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. The contest to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is more one-sided, as far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano has run an underfunded and utterly disorganized campaign against Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

Meanwhile, two House Democrats, 7th District Rep. Susan Wild and 8th District Rep. Matt Cartwright, are competing in closely watched rematches against the Republicans they beat in 2020. Last time, Wild turned back Lisa Scheller 52-48 as Biden was winning her seat 52-47, but the new version of this Lehigh Valley district would have favored the president just 50-49. Cartwright also held off Jim Bognet 52-48 as Trump was prevailing 52-47. Redistricting made the new version of this Scranton/Wilkes-Barre seat a little bluer, but it still would have backed Trump 51-48.

Both parties are also heavily engaged to the west in the open 17th District, which Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb gave up to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. Democrats are fielding Iraq War veteran Chris DeIuzio while the GOP is running former Ross Town Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer in a suburban Pittsburgh constituency Biden would have taken 52-47.

Democratic state Rep. Summer Lee is more secure in the open 12th District around the city of Pittsburgh, but the contest for this 59-39 Biden seat attracted attention over the last month. Lee and the DCCC have run ads making it clear that her Republican foe, Plum Borough Councilman Mike Doyle, is not retiring Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle. The hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, which opposed Lee in the primary, also rushed in late with a $1 million general election campaign to sink her.

• Rhode Island: Democrat Dan McKee was elevated from the lieutenant governor’s office to the top job last year when Gov. Gina Raimondo joined the Biden cabinet, and he remains the party’s standard-bearer following his tight win in the September primary. McKee’s opponent in this blue state is self-funding Republican Ashley Kalus, who has badly trailed in the few polls we’ve seen.

Things look far closer in the open 2nd District in the western part of the state, where both parties are spending millions in a constituency Biden would have taken 56-42. The Republicans landed a high-profile recruit in former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who lost competitive races to Raimondo in 2014 and 2018, for the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin. State Treasurer Seth Magaziner ended his own primary campaign against McKee to run here, but several fall polls show Fung tied or ahead.

• Tennessee: Longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper decided to retire after Republican mapmakers cracked the city of Nashville to transform his 5th District from a 60-37 Biden seat into one Trump would have carried 55-43. Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell is hoping for an upset against Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, but both national parties are spending their money elsewhere.

• Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored to claim a third term against Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman who came close to unseating Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 before embarking on a failed presidential run.

Republicans, who gerrymandered the congressional map to safeguard suburban districts that had been moving to the left, are also looking to score a trio of victories in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that lurched hard towards Trump in 2020.

Team Red’s top target is the 15th District around McAllen, a 51-48 Trump constituency that became open when Democratic Rep. Vicente González decided to run in the more favorable 34th after fellow Democrat Filemon Vela announced his retirement. The GOP is fielding 2020 nominee Monica de la Cruz, who came unexpectedly close to beating González, while the Democratic candidate is businesswoman Michelle Vallejo. González isn’t the only Democrat pessimistic here, though, as neither the DCCC nor HMP have answered the millions that the GOP has spent here.

The 28th District in Laredo pits Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Democrat who survived a tight primary challenge in May, against former Ted Cruz aide Cassy Garcia. The race for this 53-46 Biden constituency has attracted heavy spending from both sides, and Republicans have been only too happy to highlight a still-unexplained January FBI raid on Cuellar's home and campaign headquarters.

Finally, the 34th around Brownsville hosts an incumbent vs. incumbent match between González and Mayra Flores, a Republican who won a June special election for the old version of this seat after Vela decided to hasten his planned departure from Congress by resigning early. Flores represents three times as many residents of the new district as González, but this 57-42 Biden constituency is considerably bluer than the version Flores flipped months ago. Outside groups are spending millions for their respective incumbents.

8:30 PM ET

• Arkansas: Republicans secured their hold on all four of the state’s House seats by splitting up Little Rock's Black community across multiple districts, and the GOP should have no trouble holding all its statewide offices. That includes the open governorship, which former Trump aide Sarah Huckabee Sanders is poised to win.

9 PM ET

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (rest of state), Louisiana, Michigan (rest of state), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (rest of state), South Dakota (rest of state), Texas (rest of state), Wisconsin, Wyoming

• Arizona: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is going up against Blake Masters, a protege of conservative mega donor Peter Thiel, in his quest for a full six-year term. Prominent Republican super PACs axed millions in planned spending in September as surveys showed Masters in bad shape, but other organizations have filled in the void as Master’s prospects have improved.

Republicans have also nominated ardent election deniers for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state, which are the three offices involved in certifying results in the Grand Canyon State. The battle to succeed termed-out Gov. Doug Ducey is a duel between his fellow Republican, former local TV anchor Kari Lake, and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and most recent surveys give Lake a small edge.

The race to replace Hobbs, meanwhile, pits GOP state Rep. Mark Finchem against Democrat Adrian Fontes, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as Maricopa County recorder. Finally, the contest to succeed termed-out Attorney General Mark Brnovich pits yet another Big Lie advocate, Republican prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh, against former Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes.

Three House members also face competitive races after the Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission overhauled their districts. The most vulnerable is moderate Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran, who is trying to fend off Navy SEAL veteran Eli Crane in the sprawling 2nd District in the northeastern part of the state. While O'Halleran looked like a goner after he wound up in a seat that would have backed Trump 53-45, both parties’ decision to spend here in the final weeks indicates that he still has a chance.

Another late-breaking race is in the 1st District in the Phoenix suburbs, which narrowly voted for Biden. Republican Rep. David Schweikert spent most of the cycle as the decisive favorite against Democrat Jevin Hodge, who would be Arizona’s first Black member of Congress. HMP, though, rushed in with an ad campaign in the final weeks hitting the congressman over the ethics violations that overshadowed Schweikert in 2020, and his allies at CLF have responded with ads of their own.

Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton is also defending the 4th District, another Phoenix area seat that supported Biden 54-44, against restaurant owner Kelly Cooper. CLF, though, unsuccessfully tried to stop Cooper from getting nominated, and it never responded to Democratic spending highlighting his ties to extremists.

The situation is the reverse in the Tucson-based 6th District, where Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick isn’t seeking re-election in a seat that would have voted for Biden by the narrowest of margins. CLF got the nominee it wanted, former Ducey aide Juan Ciscomani, while Democratic groups have triaged former state Sen. Kirsten Engel.

• Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet faces a strong challenge from Republican self-funder Joe O'Dea, but most recent polls show the incumbent establishing a firm lead in what’s become a Democratic-friendly state. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis is in even better shape against University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, who is the GOP’s only statewide elected official.

Things are more dicey in the 8th District, a brand-new seat in the northern Denver suburbs created thanks to reapportionment that would have backed Biden 51-46. Both parties have devoted millions to the battle between Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo and Republican state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, but even a mid-October Caraveo internal showed her narrowly trailing. National Democrats have also spent some money to support state Sen. Brittany Pettersen in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter in the neighboring 7th, but this is much friendlier turf at 56-42 Biden.

• Iowa: Seven-term Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley faces the most competitive re-election fight of his career, but retired Navy Adm. Mike Franken is still the underdog in what’s become a very tough state for Democrats. A mid-October poll from Iowa’s most prominent pollster, Ann Selzer, showed Grassley only narrowly ahead, but both parties have continued to direct their resources elsewhere. (Selzer’s survey released Saturday showed Grassley ahead by a wider 53-41.)

The most prominent House race in the state pits 3rd District Rep. Cindy Axne, who is the only Democrat in the Hawkeye State’s delegation, against Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn for a southwestern Iowa seat that Trump very narrowly won. Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson also face credible challenges from their respective Democratic foes, state Rep. Christina Bohannan and state Sen. Liz Mathis. However, all the major outside spending in both races has been on the GOP side.

• Louisiana: There’s no question that Republicans, who passed a new gerrymander over Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ veto, will keep their firm hold over 5 of the state’s 6 congressional delegations, but GOP Rep. Clay Higgins does face a credible intra-party foe in the all-party primary for the 3rd District.

Attorney Holden Hoggatt is arguing that Higgins has done a poor job securing federal aid for his hurricane-ravaged constituents in the southwestern corner of the state, and he’s also highlighting allegations that Higgins threatened his first wife with a gun. The congressman, who has been a reliable spreader of conspiracy theories, has Trump’s backing, while Hoggatt has some prominent former local politicians from both parties in his corner. Six other candidates are on the ballot, and a Dec. 10 runoff would take place if no one earns a majority.

• Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is going up against Republican Scott Jensen, a former state senator who has circulated a litany of COVID conspiracy theories. Most polls have shown the far-better funded Walz ahead, though this is another race where reliable numbers are scarce, and Republicans showed up with a burst of very late outside spending.

The 2nd District in the Twin Cities suburbs, meanwhile, is an expensive second bout between Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and Marine veteran Tyler Kistner. Craig won 48-46 as Biden was carrying her seat by a 7-point margin, and court-supervised redistricting barely made any changes here.

The 1st District to the south also is a rematch between Republican Rep. Brad Finstad and the Democrat he beat in an August special election, former Hormel CEO Jeff Ettinger. Finstad turned back Ettinger just 51-47 in a constituency Trump took 54-44, but both parties are behaving like Finstad is on track for an easy win.

Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon is also trying to fend off election denier Kim Crockett in a contest that national Democrats are heavily involved in as Republicans have largely sat on the sidelines. Each side, though, is spending big in the race between Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison and Jim Schultz, who is the rare Republican attorney general candidate who acknowledges Biden won in 2020.

• Nebraska: The biggest race in the state is the contest for the 2nd District in the Omaha area, which would have supported Biden 52-46. Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who claimed victory two years ago in a similar constituency, this time is going up against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who would be Nebraska’s first Latino member.

The neighboring 1st District around Lincoln is a return engagement between Republican Rep. Mike Flood and the Democrat he turned back in a June special, state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks. Flood only held on 53-47 in a 54-43 Trump seat, but just like in Minnesota’s 1st, both parties aren't expecting a repeat performance.

• New Mexico: Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is going up against former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, a Republican who held her distant relative, Ben Ray Lujan, to an unexpectedly small 52-46 win in the 2020 Senate race. Recent surveys from reliable firms have given the governor a mid-single-digit lead.

Democratic mapmakers sought to defeat far-right Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by transforming her southern New Mexico constituency from a 55-43 Trump seat to one that Biden would have carried 52-46. That's resulted in a very competitive race with her Democratic opponent, Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez. HMP also launched a small buy in the final week to safeguard Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez in a 54-44 Biden seat in the northern part of the state.

• New York: Democrat Kathy Hochul assumed the governorship last summer after scandal-ridden incumbent Andrew Cuomo resigned, and she faces an unexpectedly tough battle to keep her new job against GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. Almost every reliable poll shows Hochul with the lead in a place where Republicans haven’t prevailed statewide since 2002, though some surveys have things close.

Democrats also are facing some difficult contests for the House in part because New York’s highest court threw out the map Team Blue passed. We’ll begin on Long Island, where each party launched an expensive ad campaign in the final week in the open 4th District. Biden would have won 57-42 here, but Democrats took huge losses in this area in last year’s local elections. They're running former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen to succeed her political ally, retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice, while the GOP nominee is Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito.

HMP has also devoted millions to safeguard the neighboring 3rd, a 54-45 Biden seat that Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi gave up to wage a failed primary bid against Hochul, but the GOP never responded in kind. The contest between DNC member Robert Zimmerman and 2020 GOP nominee George Santos already has made history, though, as the first congressional race between two gay major-party nominees.

The race to succeed Zeldin on eastern Long Island’s 1st District, meanwhile, pits Democratic Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming against longtime local GOP politico Nick LaLota. Biden would have narrowly carried this seat, but outside groups have bypassed it. The 2nd, by contrast, is a rematch between freshman Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino and 2020 opponent Jackie Gordon. However, while their last bout attracted huge amounts of spending, there’s been less energy this time for this 50-49 Trump seat.

Another 2020 rematch is taking place on Staten Island’s 11th District between Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and Max Rose, the moderate Democrat she unseated 53-47. Rose hoped to be running in a much friendlier seat this time, but the new map only reduced Trump’s margin from 55-44 to 53-46. Both contenders are strong fundraisers, but national groups have also skipped this one.

Where they are getting involved, though, is in a trio of constituencies in and around the Hudson Valley north of New York City. Republicans badly want to deny re-election to DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th District, which would have favored Biden 55-44. Democratic groups in turn came in during the final weeks to help Maloney fend off Assemblyman Mike Lawler.

The 18th District next door is being defended by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, who won an August special in the old 19th District in a massive upset. The 18th, at 53-45, is considerably more Democratic than the seat Ryan represents now, but no one thinks re-election is a sure thing against GOP Assemblyman Colin Schmitt.

The open Democratic-held 19th features a battle between Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, the Republican Ryan beat over the summer, and attorney Josh Riley. None of Molinaro’s home county is included in this new 51-47 Biden seat, though his failed campaign and 2018 run against Cuomo make him a familiar name.

There’s another pricey fight over in the Syracuse-based 22nd District, a 53-45 Biden seat where GOP Rep. John Katko is not seeking re-election. National Republicans tried to sink businessman Brandon Williams in the primary, but they’re nonetheless very much in his corner against Navy veteran Francis Conole.

Finally, there’s a late-developing race in Rochester’s 25th District. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle long looked safe in this 59-39 Biden seat against La'Ron Singletary, a former police chief who resigned in 2020 after he tried to conceal video footage of police suffocating a Black man to death after officers placed a hood over his face and held him to the ground, but Democrats launched a small buy in the final days.

• Wisconsin: The Badger State is home to two of the most competitive races in the whole country as Republican Sen. Ron Johnson tries to hold off Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as Democratic Gov. Tony Evers goes up against self-funder Tim Michels. There’s also an important race for attorney general as Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul faces Republican ​​Eric Toney, a Fond du Lac County district attorney who has bragged, “I am prosecuting more election fraud than anyone else in Wisconsin.”

The only House race in the state that’s at all interesting is the 3rd District in southwestern Wisconsin, where longtime Democratic Rep. Ron Kind is retiring. National Democrats, though, have redirected resources from this 51-47 Trump seat, where Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff is trying to hold on against 2020 GOP nominee Derrick Van Orden.

10 PM ET

Idaho (Mountain Time Zone), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (Mountain Time Zone), Utah

• Montana: The 2020 census gave Big Sky Country a second House seat for the first time in three decades, and Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale’s decision to run in the safely red 2nd in western Montana means there’s an open-seat race for the brand-new 1st to the east. The contest for this 52-45 Trump district pits a Rosendale predecessor, Republican Ryan Zinke, against Democratic attorney Monica Tranel, who has emphasized the many scandals that dogged Zinke during his time as Trump’s first secretary of the interior.

• Nevada: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is trying to turn back former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt in one of the top Senate races in the nation. Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, who beat Laxalt in 2018, is involved in a tough battle of his own against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

Last year, Democrats made the risky decision to make Rep. Dina Titus’ once-safe 1st District competitive in order to help two fellow Democrats also in the Las Vegas area, 3rd District Rep. Susie Lee and 4th District incumbent Steven Horsford. Now all three face serious fights in seats that Biden would have carried from 7 to 9 points.

Titus is going up against Army veteran Mark Robertson in her first competitive general election in a decade, while Lee is slugging it out against attorney April Becker. Horsford’s race against Air Force veteran Sam Peters hasn’t attracted spending from national GOP groups, though super PACs funded by local millionaire Robert Bigelow have dumped millions here.

Team Blue is also spending big in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, where Democrat Cisco Aguilar is hoping to beat Jim Marchant, one of the most prominent election deniers in the country. The race for attorney general pits Democratic incumbent Aaron Ford against another Republican conspiracy theorist, Sigal Chattah.

• Utah: Hard-right Sen. Mike Lee faces an unexpectedly tough battle in this dark-red state from independent Evan McMullin, who took a strong third in Utah as an anti-Trump conservative in the 2016 presidential election. Democrats opted to endorse McMullin, who says he won’t caucus with either party in the Senate, rather than run their own candidate, but he still faces an uphill climb.

11 PM ET

California, Oregon (rest of state), Washington

• California: The Golden State’s independent redistricting commission once again scrambled California’s congressional map, and there are a wealth of high-profile House races here.

We’ll start with three districts in the sprawling Central Valley that Biden took with 55% of the vote but where Democrats often struggle with midterm turnout. Both parties have delivered millions to the battle in the 13th District between Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray and agribusinessman John Duarte. An even more expensive battle is unfolding to the south in the 22nd between Republican Rep. David Valadao, who voted for impeachment and may be the most vulnerable GOP House incumbent in the country, and Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas.

Outside groups, meanwhile, have bypassed the 9th District, where Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is seeking re-election in a seat that’s largely new to him, but he still faces a notable opponent in San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti. There's a fourth district in the area as well that bears eyeing, though this time, at least, no one is acting like Democratic Rep. Jim Costa is in trouble against little known foe Michael Maher in the 21st, which would have favored Biden 59-39. However, Costa came shockingly close to losing in 2014 in another seemingly dry contest.

We’ll venture next to the 47th District in the longtime GOP stronghold of Orange County, where Republicans have made it a top priority to defeat prominent progressive Rep. Katie Porter. Porter, who is one of the top fundraisers in the entire chamber, is defending a constituency that would have backed Biden 55-43, but the GOP is hoping that the suburban voters who revolted against Trump will return to the fold with former county party chair Scott Baugh.

GOP Rep. Michelle Steel faces a well-funded campaign next door in the new 45th from community college trustee Jay Chen, but national Republicans are the only ones dumping money into this 52-46 Biden seat. Another Orange County Republican congresswoman, Young Kim, is going up against physician Asif Mahmood in the new 40th, which Biden would have won just 50-48 and where there’s been considerably less outside spending.

Over in the 49th north of San Diego, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin faces a tough rematch against San Juan Capistrano Councilman Brian Maryott in a seat that barely changed in redistricting. Levin turned back Maryott 53-47 as Biden was prevailing 55-43, and both parties are treating this as a major priority.

The situation is a bit different in the 27th District north of Los Angeles, where Democrat Christy Smith is trying to avenge her 333-vote defeat to Republican Rep. Mike Garcia. This new constituency, which Biden would have won 55-43, is a couple points to the left of Garcia’s old seat, but Democratic groups haven’t been spending here.

A few other seats are also on the radar. Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley long looked safe in the 26th, a suburban L.A. constituency where Biden scored 59%, but her allies at EMILY’s List came in late to help her against Republican Matt Jacobs.

On the other side, veteran Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, who has represented a safely red seat for a decade, now faces a spirited challenge from former federal prosecutor Will Rollins in the 41st in Riverside County, but neither party has prioritized this 50-49 Trump seat. Democratic physician Kermit Jones has also attracted attention in his bid against Republican Assemblyman Kevin Kiley in the sprawling 3rd District in northern California, but this 50-48 Trump constituency may be too much of a lift this year.

Finally, there are a few safely blue seats that saw a pair of Democrats advance out of June's top-two primary. Up in the Bay Area, Assemblyman Kevin Mullin has endorsements from both retiring Rep. Jackie Speier and Speaker Nancy Pelosi against San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa. Back down in L.A., Rep. Jimmy Gomez is trying to avoid a repeat of his unexpectedly close 53-47 win against 2020 rival David Kim. Finally in the neighboring 37th, state Sen. Sydney Kamlager has the backing of incumbent Karen Bass, who is running for mayor, against former City Councilwoman Jan Perry.

• Oregon: Democrats have held the governorship since 1987, but the GOP is hoping that frustration with termed-out Democratic Gov. Kate Brown will propel former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan to victory over Democrat Tina Kotek, the former speaker who would join Healey as America’s first lesbian governor. Further complicating things is the independent candidacy of former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a longtime conservative Democrat who appears to be harming Kotek more than Drazan.

Democrats also face tough battles in a trio of House seats that Biden carried. The biggest source of concern is in the 5th District in central Oregon, where former city manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner toppled conservative Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary and is now up against former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Biden would have won 53-44 here, but Team Blue has redirected resources away from this contest as the GOP has continued to throw in money.

Over in the 4th along the state’s southern coast, Democratic Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle is campaigning against 2020 Republican nominee Alek Skarlatos. Skarlatos held retiring Rep. Peter DeFazio to a 52-46 win last time, but Democratic mapmakers extended Biden’s margin from 51-47 all the way to 55-42. Finally in the 6th, a brand-new seat Salem created by reapportionment that would have also backed Biden 55-42, there’s another closely watched fight between Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas and businessman Mike Erickson.

• Washington: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray faces an unexpectedly tough contest against Republican Tiffany Smiley in this blue state, though even surveys from GOP pollsters still largely give the incumbent the edge. The biggest national groups on both sides, though, have not been involved.

Further down the ticket, Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is locked in a costly battle against Republican Matt Larkin in the 8th District, a suburban Seattle constituency Biden would have won 52-45. National Democrats also have made a late offensive in 3rd to support Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against far-right Republican Joe Kent, who toppled incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary; Trump would have won this southwestern Washington seat 51-47.

12 AM ET

Alaska (Alaska Time Zone), Hawaii

• Alaska: The Last Frontier will conduct its general elections through instant-runoff voting, though these tabulations won’t take place until Nov. 23.

The Senate battle is a closely-watched intra-GOP showdown between incumbent Lisa Murkowski, who has the support of the Senate leadership, and Trump’s candidate, former state cabinet official Kelly Tshibaka. Major GOP super PACs have spent heavily to help Murkowski, though her detractors are hoping enough conservatives will follow Trump’s lead in a state he took 53-43. Democrat Pat Chesbro and Buzz Kelley, a Republican who dropped out and endorsed Tshibaka in September, are also on the ballot.

The race for governor pits hardline Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy against both his independent predecessor, Bill Walker, and former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara. Another Republican, former Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce, is also in, but his campaign was barely a factor even before harassment allegations against him became public. Both Walker and Gara have urged their supporters to rank the other one second in order to beat Dunleavy.

Finally, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is trying to keep the House seat she won in an August special election against Sarah Palin. Both Palin and another Republican, Nick Begich III, are competing again, along with Libertarian Chris Bye, but Murkowski and several other notable Republicans are supporting Peltola. GOP outside groups have also bypassed this contest despite Alaska's decided red lean.

1 AM ET

Alaska (rest of state)