Popular Republican and Trump running mate contender makes first Senate endorsement in 2024 races

EXCLUSIVE - Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who's under consideration as former President Donald Trump's running mate, is weighing in on the GOP Senate primary in a key battleground state.

Scott on Wednesday endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan, a former House Intelligence Committee chair who is the front-runner in the August Republican primary in the fight to succeed longtime Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat who is not seeking re-election this year.

The seat is one of a handful that Republicans are aiming to flip from blue to red in the autumn elections as they push to regain the Senate majority they lost in the 2020 cycle.

"Mike Rogers’ commitment to service has always been about putting the American people first. When Mike and I served together, he was a leader who delivered results and fought to expand opportunities for working families and those pursuing their American Dream," Scott said in a statement. "I'm proud to endorse him to be Michigan's next U.S. Senator because I know Mike will bring his servant leadership to the U.S. Senate."

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN SENATE CAMPAIGN CHAIR TOLD FOX NEWS ABOUT WINNING BACK THE MAJORITY

Scott's backing of Rogers, which was shared first with Fox News, is his first formal endorsement in a Senate race this election cycle, although he's helped other Republican candidates raise money.

Rogers, an Army veteran and a former FBI special agent before serving in Congress, enjoys the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is the campaign arm of the Senate GOP. And in March, Rogers landed the endorsement of Trump, the party's presumptive presidential nominee.

6 KEY SENATE SEATS REPUBLICANS AIM TO FLIP IN NOVEMBER 

"Senator Scott has been a tremendous champion for conservative values in the U.S. Senate and I’m honored to receive his endorsement," Rogers said in a statement. "Together in the Senate we will work with President Trump to help Michigan families, lower the cost of gas and groceries, and secure the southern border."

Rogers has also been endorsed in recent months by seven other Republican senators, as well as Mike Pompeo, who served as Secretary of State and CIA director in the Trump administration. He's also been endorsed by former Detroit police chief James Craig, who backed Rogers after ending his own Republican Senate nomination bid earlier this year.

As they work to win a Senate election in Michigan for the first time in three decades, Republicans were hoping to avoid a potentially costly and combustible primary.

But Rogers doesn't have the field to himself.

The primary race also includes wealthy businessman and investor Sandy Pensler, who's making his second run for office and has been spending big bucks to run ads targeting Rogers. Former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy endorsed Pensler.

Among the others running for the GOP nomination are former Rep. Justin Amash, who as an independent House member joined Democrats in voting to impeach then-President Trump in his first impeachment trial in 2019.

The state primary in Michigan will be held on August 6.

Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, ran unsuccessfully for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination but remains a very popular and influential figure in the party.

The senator, who was known for his ferocious fundraising as he cruised to a Senate re-election in 2022, has strong ties with many leading figures in the GOP donor class. The money raised two years ago served as a down payment for his 2024 national run.

Besides raising money for himself, Scott has also been very active in helping fellow Republicans running for office.

In the 2022 cycle, the senator raised nearly $1 million for other candidates and donated more than $1 million to down ballot races. And two outside groups aligned with Scott spent $13 million on top Senate and House races, while also transferring $5 million to the top super PAC supporting Senate Republicans.

A super PAC allied with Scott announced earlier this month it would spend $14 million to help Republicans grow support among Black voters.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

The Downballot: Freedom Caucus chair loses in a squeaker (transcript)

The entire GOP from Trump on down was gunning for the head of the House Freedom Caucus on Tuesday night—and they succeeded, but only barely. We're recapping the latest primaries on this week's episode of "The Downballot," starting with Virginia Rep. Bob Good's near-escape from political doom. We've also got a compelling Democratic primary in NoVa, where a retiring congresswoman's blessing proved critical, and a brewing rumble in a swing district that will test a first-time Democratic candidate with immense fundraising prowess but limited experience on the campaign trail.

Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes every Thursday morning!

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

Beard: Hello and welcome. I'm David Beard, contributing editor for Daily Kos Elections.

Nir: And I'm David Nir, political director of Daily Kos. "The Downballot" is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. You can subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts to make sure you never miss an episode.

Beard: We've got a bit of an abbreviated episode this week, thanks to the Juneteenth holiday, but there was an election on Tuesday night, so we definitely wanted to hit some of the highlights from those primaries.

Nir: Absolutely. The main action was in Virginia, where we had a fascinating result in a race where Donald Trump had marked the chair of the Freedom Caucus for extinction, and it didn't go exactly as planned. We also had a Democratic primary in northern Virginia where an outgoing congresswoman's endorsement seemed to play a critical role in a swing district that Democrats are seeking to hold. We're going to also preview the general election a little bit.

And finally, an interesting race out in Oklahoma where a veteran member of the GOP establishment hung on by a wide margin despite fears that a self-funder could actually knock him out of office. There is a bunch to get through, so let's get rolling.

Beard: Well, we had another big primary night and we actually saw the first House incumbent lose to a challenger this cycle, though I don't think anyone thought it would play out quite the way that it did.

Nir: Yeah. And that includes us. So, there was no AP call on Wednesday afternoon at the time that we were recording this episode. But in Virginia's conservative 5th district, state Senator John McGuire currently leads House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good by about 300 votes, and he's almost certainly the winner here. Everything except an unknown number of provisional votes has been tallied. There could conceivably be a recount, but right now the margin is just a hair outside the threshold where the state would pay for one.

So, Good, if things stand as they are, would have to pay for one himself. And when a margin is 300 votes, it's exceedingly unlikely for a recount to change the outcome. But talk about exceedingly unlikely — for quite some time, Good had truly looked like a dead man walking. Just about every corner of the GOP had it out for him. Trump hated him because he'd endorsed Ron DeSantis.

Kevin McCarthy hated him because he'd voted to oust McCarthy as speaker. And a lot of his colleagues, his House GOP colleagues, hated him, too, because the Freedom Caucus is such a constant pain in the ass and it's the chief reason why Hakeem Jeffries is actually in charge of the House whenever there's actual legislation that actually needs to get passed.

And on top of that, McGuire and his allies outspent Good's side by almost two to one, and we're talking a lot of money. Team McGuire spent more than $9 million. And on top of that, McGuire released a poll in early May that had him up 14 points and Good's response was literally straight out of the loser-speak playbook. This is what his campaign said, and I quote, "The only poll that matters is the final count on election day." I mean, whatever you hear a campaign say that, Beard, that's just a total admission. You know that even their own polls show them losing.

Beard: Now, the interesting thing about that is that there was a report that McGuire was at an event where Good was, and McGuire was touting his poll lead of 14 points in his own poll. And then Good claimed that he had a poll showing himself up 25 points. So, very much like a one-upmanship, but then someone on Twitter went and looked through all of his campaign finance disclosures, and nowhere was there anything related to a survey or a poll or research or anything that looked like it could have been possibly a poll paid for by the Good Campaign. So, it seems entirely likely that Good never bothered to poll, pretended to claim that he had a poll with a 25-point lead, and saw that McGuire had a poll with him down 14, but then, in the end, he nearly won anyway after all of that.

Nir: I mean, talk about flying blind. Jacob Rubashkin from Inside Elections tweeted about that funny dispute between the two candidates, each claiming to have polls showing them up and said they were both wrong by double digits, which is super, super funny because here we are, a 300-vote margin, which truly no one seemed to see coming. And again, I say we're in that bucket, too. I was certain that Good was going to get completely stomped on.

Now, I'm sure it's cold comfort to Bob Good that he lost in a squeaker instead of a blowout. But if you step back a moment, it's really quite fascinating that even with Donald Trump and the entire GOP gunning for this guy, they just couldn't blow him out of the water. And you know what, I think Good could have won if he hadn't spent so much time supporting candidates who were challenging his other colleagues in the House.

It's really amazing. Good endorsed challengers — and we're talking scum of the earth, ultra far-right challengers — to Don Bacon, Carol Miller, Tony Gonzalez and William Timmons. These are all four sitting members of the House GOP Caucus and Good was like, "Yeah, hate you, hate you, hate you, hate you." Well, no wonder his colleagues hated him right back. And there might have even been more, those are just the ones that we counted.

And we even know that he schlepped over to West Virginia to campaign in person with Congressman Alex Mooney in his bid for Senate, even though Mooney was totally doomed in his primary against Jim Justice. And this was not Bob Good-doomed. This was for real doomed. So, Good clearly only has himself to blame. If he'd actually spent time in his district and he hadn't been such a colossal dick, he probably could have found 300 more votes.

Beard: Yeah, yeah. Though I think ultimately the problem with Bob Good is that also his popularity is in part because he's such a colossal dick, and he's made literally everyone in the Republican Party hate him. So, he gets to claim to be anti-establishment even though he is an incumbent congressman. So, it's one of those, you can't have one without the other situation. So, who knows what the ideal form of Bob Good is, just in reality, both of these people are pretty awful. This is not a situation where one of the Republicans was like a Lisa Murkowski-esque reasonable person. These are pretty awful people and we're just replacing one bad Republican congressman with another.

Nir: That is so funny, Beard, because maybe there are people who voted for Bob Good and said, "Oh, I like the fact that he doesn't spend time in the district, that he's going across the country stumping for these other jackasses."

Beard: Probably; it wouldn't surprise me.

Nir: Well, ultimately what I think matters a lot more is that for once in a really high-profile race, Trump's endorsement did not prove to be the Word of God. I hope local reporters really dig into this race to help us understand what happened because half of all GOP primary voters just said nuts to Trump, and we've really seldom seen that. This question is really difficult to answer. There are a thousand stories you could probably tell about why Good performed above expectations. And unfortunately, because he lost narrowly instead of winning narrowly, there will probably be less interest in trying to uncover what happened here.

Though I want to be really clear, Beard, like you were saying, unfortunately, because Good lost, no, no, no, no, no, no, I'm very happy that he's gone. Only for the sake of election analysis do I wish we could learn more about this one. But it's really possible that there are lessons here to learn about how Trump can be almost successfully defied. And I think there are lessons I would like to know more about, but also the Republican Party could probably stand to learn them, too.

Beard: Yeah, and I think, if I had to guess, my number one point would be that the main issue that Trump had with Good, though there were a few others, is that Good endorsed DeSantis back during the presidential primary. While you can understand why that would make Trump very upset, I think any Republican primary voter is not going to be as upset by that as opposed to the other issues where people have upset Trump because they split with him on an issue or they criticize Trump or something like that, where you get that riled up of like, "Oh, I have to defend Trump and be with Trump," that all these Republican primary voters have for whatever reason.

Good, I think, was never really criticizing Trump. He had just endorsed DeSantis. He thought DeSantis was great; who knows why. But I think that is something that was probably seen as more forgivable by Republican primary voters than the other instances in which we've seen Trump go after people. Also, incumbency, like you said, there's a lot here going on. And it would be interesting, and hopefully, people dig more into it.

Nir: Well, there were a bunch of other interesting races in Virginia on Tuesday night. So, we are going to head up I-81 to Northern Virginia and talk about the Democratic primary in the open 10th district.

Beard: Yes, this is a district where Jennifer Wexton is retiring. There were a bunch of candidates, but state Senator Suhas Subramanyam defeated state Delegate Dan Helmer, 30-27, so a pretty narrow margin. Nobody got anywhere close to a majority, but there are no runoffs in Virginia. So, Subramanyam will be the Democratic nominee. He'll be a pretty heavy favorite against Republican Mike Clancy in the fall. This is a district that Joe Biden won by about 20 points in 2020. Obviously, Northern Virginia has really exploded both in votes and in Democratic margins, so he should be pretty set to go to Congress in 2025.

This really proved to be a compelling contest, primarily because Helmer had raised by far the most money and had some $5 million in outside help, but Subramanyam had something that I think was more important, which was the endorsement of Representative Wexton. Now, Wexton, as you may have heard, flipped the seat in 2018. It had been a long-time GOP stronghold, but as I mentioned, this area has been zooming left. It's a very affluent, well-educated suburban area.

Now, Wexton had been set for a long career, but tragically she had announced she was suffering from a serious neurodegenerative disease last year and said that she would be retiring. And about a month before the primary, she gave Subramanyam her blessing, which clearly certainly helped him towards the top.

Nir: Yeah. Helmer also got hit with a really ugly story in the final stretch of the race when several women who run a local Democratic organization accused him of engaging in inappropriate behavior with an unnamed member. Helmer denied the allegations and his rivals mostly didn't press them, but obviously, that's not the way you want to finish out a race.

Beard: Yeah. And it's impossible to know, but you could certainly imagine this having an effect on particularly voters who voted either at the very end of the period or on Election Day itself.

Nir: What I think is most interesting is Wexton's role in all of this because, yes, Subramanyam won with a 30% plurality, but it's quite interesting that in a race packed with a lot of pretty prominent local candidates, he managed to rise to the top of the pack despite getting outspent. And it shows that at least to some degree in Democratic primaries, the wishes of the party establishment still hold some pretty strong influence.

There's nothing on the Democratic side like a Trump endorsement. Even an endorsement from an Obama or a Biden or a Hillary Clinton is nowhere near as big. But Wexton as a local figure who was quite well-liked, I think, still really had an impact on this race in all likelihood. Obviously, we can't prove that for certain. And it just shows you, I think the different way that Democratic primaries tend to play out compared to the chaos we often see on the GOP side.

Beard: And compared to some races where we see the democratic establishment really line up for one candidate and then there might be a more left-wing challenger or something like that, outside of Wexton, a lot of the Democratic establishment was pretty dispersed because as you mentioned, there were a lot of candidates. Helmer, of course, came in second, but also Eileen Filler-Corn, who had been speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates, Jennifer Boysko is also a state senator. So, there were other prominent names here who also got money that was raised. They also got outside spending. So, this was a race where there were a lot of different things flying in a lot of different directions, and I think in that case I suspect that a lot of voters saw Wexton's endorsement as a north star to direct them.

Nir: So, there's one more Virginia race that we want to discuss, and that's in the 7th District, which is just to the south of the 10th. That is a swingy open seat. And there, we had primaries on both sides that are worth mentioning. On the Democratic side, things played out exactly as expected. Former National Security Council advisor Eugene Vindman crushed the rest of the field. He beat his nearest opponent, former state delegate Elizabeth Guzman, by a lopsided 49 to 15 margin. Vindman, you might recall, came to prominence during Trump's first impeachment in 2019, thanks in key part to his identical twin brother, Alexander, who provided critical testimony about Trump's efforts to ask Ukraine to interfere in US elections on his behalf, that led the House of Representatives to impeach him.

That background instantly turned on the money printing machines. Grassroots, progressive donors love that profile and they donated just bonkers sums. Vindman has already raised $5 million, which is a wild amount for a primary, and he'll definitely raise a lot more. Several local elected officials also sought to run here. In a way, it was a little bit like the field in the 10th district except for this juggernaut presence of Vindman and his profile and his money. And as a result, you had this crabs in the bucket problem. There were so many of these reasonably prominent candidates, each with their own basis of support, that no single one of them was able to consolidate their status as the main non-Vindman option.

Beard: Yeah, I think the main difference here is while you saw a lot of groups play in VA-10, that was as a result of the early lack of a front-runner, which I think made a lot of groups feel like they could make a difference if they went in for their favorite candidate. While, here, because Vindman got in early and was able to raise a bunch of money early, you were looking at taking on this Goliath financially, and you don't want to be the one group to go in and spend $500,000 against somebody who's raised $5 million. So, there's a coordination problem. As you mentioned, also a crab bucket problem, where there were multiple candidates who were all competing there, and so they were often firing at each other to try to be the anti-Vindman candidate as opposed to firing at Vindman. So, as a result, a lot of outside groups didn't play here. Vindman was really able to dominate financially and really get a very comfortable victory.

Nir: It's so interesting you say that, Beard, because in a somewhat similar race that we discussed a while back, the primary for Maryland's open 3rd district, we had a somewhat parallel setup where former Capital Police officer Harry Dunn raised money like Vindman from a similar set of grassroots progressives, but, there, AIPAC decided, "Well, we have a candidate we really like in state Senator Sarah Elfreth." And they did go in big and spent millions to boost her. So, I guess it's also a combination of no one feeling particularly motivated to jump in and decide to elevate an alternative to Vindman. Though, I think the Dunn example shows that someone could have, it just would've taken a lot of effort and a lot of money.

Beard: Yeah, I think another key difference is obviously this is a very competitive general election campaign. So, in that way, Vindman's ability to raise massive amounts of money is very appealing to establishment groups that are looking to spend in the general election and may think, "Oh, we don't have to invest as much in the 7th district because Vindman will raise a ton of money, way outraise his opponent, and we can just check that off from a financial perspective." Whereas, in Maryland's 3rd District that you mentioned, or even in Virginia's 10th district, those are Democratic districts by in large where the primary decides the winner. So, whether or not the winner has a bunch of money after primary day doesn't matter as much. So I think that was a factor as well. There's just a lot of pressure to go with this great fundraising candidate in a competitive seat like this.

Nir: Well, we can definitely say that the general election is going to be a lot tougher than the primary. Biden carried this district by just seven points, and Republicans are really eager to take it back after losing it in 2018. It's open now because Democrat Abigail Spanberger opted to retire so that she could focus on her campaign for Governor. Virginia, of course, elects governors in odd-numbered years. So, that race is happening in 2025. Republicans nominated former Green Beret Derrick Anderson, who's a veteran of both Iraq and Afghanistan. He had the backing of the GOP establishment, including Speaker Mike Johnson. And he's raised good money, though nothing like Vindman, but I think we can be pretty certain that Republicans are going to spend heavily to try to reclaim this seat.

Beard: Yeah, I expect this to be one of the most competitive seats in November. And I think [Vindman] does have a huge positive, of course, in that he can raise a ton of money. That will not be a problem. He will definitely outspend the Republican candidate. The question, of course, is how good is he as a candidate outside of that, because he hasn't run for elective office before. This wasn't a campaign where he was building a lot of grassroots support at local parties or things that you think of that a typical state legislator or county commissioner would do to build up a campaign from that baseline and out for a congressional campaign. This was: raise a ton of money from across the country, spend it all, and get yourself the nomination that way. So, in the fall, he is going to have to do a lot more conventional general election campaigning.

Nir: Yeah. And the issue is going to be how well he holds up when he's facing a very aggressive campaign from Republicans who simply aren't going to hold back. Vindman got a lot of criticism from local Democrats for his apparently weak ties to the district and for allegedly not having been involved in local politics previously. The GOP attacks are going to be just a completely different level. They're going to be nasty, they're going to be hostile, there're going to be millions of dollars spent on him. There are going to be probably borderline false in a lot of cases. And he is going to have to deal with that. And there's some question about how well he's going to handle that pressure.

Just the other day, his campaign threatened the British newspaper The Independent with litigation for reporting about complaints from another Democratic candidate that Vindman has referred to himself as a colonel even though he retired from the Army with the rank of lieutenant colonel. Obviously, that's a fairly small thing, but this is a problem you can run into with inexperienced candidates. And the campaign's response was maybe thin-skinned. The Independent ultimately did publish this story. Of course, it wasn't deterred by these threats. And the story wasn't flattering to Vindman, so he's got to show that he's able to throw a punch and take a punch much better than this.

Beard: Yeah, and the issue here, as you said, is very narrow. He was a colonel at one point. He wasn't a colonel long enough, apparently, to retire as a colonel because that's a distinction within the Army. So, what worries me about it is, A, the best response would've been like, "Hey, we reviewed these relatively obscure complex regulations and we realized he should refer to himself as a retired lieutenant colonel, and we'll be doing that going forward." And I think nothing would've come of it because it's a very understandable thing to do. He was a colonel; it was just a length of time issue as he moved into retirement.

But the fact that they then threatened litigation, that they're insisting that he still is referred to as a retired colonel when by reading the article, it certainly seems like he should be referred to as a retired lieutenant colonel, it seems to me like a campaign that is not responsive to new facts. It is somebody who's being stubborn and insisting on something when the right thing to do, if you're like a campaign manager or somebody on the stuff to be like, "Hey, just be like, this was a confusing issue. We understand now that this is the right reference, and that's what we'll be using going forward." And instead threatening litigation is a little concerning to me.

Nir: Yeah, the good news is we still have quite a few months before election day, most voters haven't tuned in. The Vindman campaign has a chance to get things sorted, to get things right, and to hopefully prepare their candidate for what is definitely going to be a bruising race in a seat. Democrats really need to hold in order to have a good shot at taking back the House.

Beard: Now, we've got one race that we want to cover outside of Virginia, and that is over in Oklahoma.

Nir: So, we are heading out to Oklahoma's deep red 4th congressional district where longtime Republican representative Tom Cole was challenged by a self-funder named Paul Bondar. Bondar spent something like $5 million on the race, and he managed to totally freak out Cole and his allies, who responded by together spending almost $7 million to save him.

But in the end, it wasn't even close. It wasn't even distant. Cole won by a 65-26 margin. We're talking almost 40 points. And the reason we even mentioned this race, this total blowout, is because obviously someone had polling that spooked him. You do not spend $7 million simply as an insurance policy to hedge against some kind of black swan event.

Now, maybe the polling was accurate. At the time, it was conducted earlier in the race, but the spending for Cole never let up through the end of the race. So, his allies were still protecting him pretty much until the last minute. And I mentioned all this because it shows just how hard it can be to poll a race, especially so in a primary. Polling should rarely be taken as dispositive... I'm not going to praise someone like Tom Cole, but just to be clear, I'm not saying that his team and his allies did anything wrong in response to whatever numbers they saw. Just that it's hard to get numbers that are right. The savvy elections analyst is always the humble one.

Beard: And particularly in Republican primaries, we've seen them be very volatile. We've seen challengers who spend very, very little money get a significant percentage of the vote. I believe it was Iowa's 1st district where we talked about that Republican primary, where Mariannette Miller-Meeks was expected to have an easy sail to victory in her primary. She ended up winning only 56-44 against a super underfunded opponent.

And so if I'm a Republican congressman, particularly one like Tom Cole, who is pretty associated with the establishment — he is not a Freedom Caucus type — I would be scared of any and all challengers, particularly one spending $5 million. Obviously, in this case, Bondar was not the guy. He got embarrassed by spending that $5 million and getting 26% of the vote, but you never know. And so while I would say if you had a poll that showed you 40 points up, you would probably feel pretty good. Even if you had a poll showing you 15 or 20 points up, it is probably worth it to spend that $7 million and make sure you're going back to Congress.

Nir: Yeah, that is absolutely true. And Bondar was, in a lot of ways, a clown of a candidate. He had just moved to Oklahoma. It's not even clear if he really truly had moved to Oklahoma. He voted earlier this year in the Texas primaries in March. He says he is going to run again in 2026. I don't know, 65% ordinarily for a member of Congress in a primary is not an amazing number. But as you said, Cole being such a GOP establishment figure — once upon a time he was even head of the NRCC — that's actually not a terrible showing. So, I actually wonder if he is going to be vulnerable in the future. We'll just have to see.

Beard: Bondar, I certainly think we'll hear from again. Will we hear from him in Oklahoma's 4th district? Who knows? He could pop up anywhere in the country, and it would not shock me.

That's all from us this week. "The Downballot" comes out every Thursday, everywhere you listen to podcasts. You can reach out to us by emailing thedownballot@dailykos.com. If you haven't already, please subscribe to "The Downballot" and leave us a five-star rating and review. Thanks to our editor, Drew Roderick. And we'll be back next week with a new episode.

11 ways Trump has violated the Ten Commandments he loves so much

Donald Trump loves The Ten Commandments, y’all! Go on and ask him. Just don’t ask if he follows them, because he doesn’t and has no intention of ever doing so. Incredibly, he’s enshrined both of these core Trumpian values in his writings—almost as if he’s counting on his devout evangelical followers not to read anything, like, ever.

It’s a pretty safe assumption that they won’t, of course, but that’s nothing new. After all, this is the same guy who, during his first impeachment, continually told his followers to “read the transcript” of his call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even though it clearly implicated him in a scheme to corruptly pressure a foreign head of state into launching an investigation into Trump’s top political opponent.

So asking MAGAs to read something—even something as simple as The Ten Commandments—is clearly not going to break their trust in their golden god.

That said, the Yellin’ Felon’s latest Goof Social post—which comes on the heels of Louisiana’s new law requiring public schools to post the Commandments—is an exercise in hubris that by all rights should earn him an unceremonious smiting.

Here was the latest post from Dear Leader, who brings a brand-new covenant to God’s flock, sanctified by the body and blood (i.e., transubstantiated garlic bread and chunky Ragu) of their New Messiah. 

Trump, in the wee hours, emphatically backed Louisiana’s new Ten Commandments law: pic.twitter.com/uAHxNfvBKy

— Michael Gold (@migold) June 21, 2024

Read it? Okay, sure—but you first, Donald. Because it really seems like you haven’t. Then again, Trump uses the familiar shorthand, TTC, to refer to The Ten Commandments, just like all the cool kids did back in 1400 B.C.E. So obviously he’s a big fan.

Of course, there’s more than one version of The Ten Commandments. Jews, Catholics, and Protestants all have subtly different lists. And then there’s the version, explicitly referred to as The Ten Commandments in Exodus, that includes rules like “you shall not boil a goat in its mother’s milk.” Maybe Trump is referring to those commandments, because he’s definitely not following the list as it’s traditionally understood.

For our purposes, I’ll use the Catholic version, since I spent 11 years in Catholic schools and would hate to think it was all just a colossal waste of time. (I swiped this particular iteration from the Catholic News Agency.) 

Here are The Ten Commandments, and 10 11 ways Trump has, or continues to, brazenly defy them. 

1. I, the Lord, am your God. You shall not have other gods besides me.

Note that this one doesn’t say “unless you think you’re God—then it’s fine.” Trump has continually made clear that he acknowledges no power higher than himself. There’s plenty of prima-facie evidence to support this, but perhaps the biggest tell came in 2015 when Republican pollster Frank Luntz asked Trump if he’s ever asked God’s forgiveness.

“I am not sure I have. I just go on and try to do a better job from there. I don’t think so,” Trump said. “I think if I do something wrong, I think, I just try and make it right. I don’t bring God into that picture. I don’t.”

Later in the interview, perhaps to clarify that he had no fucking idea what he was talking about on this or any subject, Trump continued his scintillating Sunday School lesson: “When I drink my little wine—which is about the only wine I drink—and have my little cracker, I guess that is a form of asking for forgiveness, and I do that as often as possible because I feel cleansed. I think in terms of ‘let’s go on and let’s make it right.’”

Okay, but the whole point of Christianity is that we’re all sinners who can’t be redeemed without the saving grace of God. So saying you're not a sinner and that you don’t care about God’s forgiveness is to catastrophically miss the point.

2. You shall not take the name of the Lord, your God, in vain.

Unless you’re Donald Trump, of course. Then it’s okay.

Consider the time Paul Hardesty, a state senator from West Virginia, was forced to field calls from constituents complaining about Trump’s overt blasphemy.

Politico, Aug. 12, 2019:

“The third phone call is when I actually went and watched his speech because each of them sounded distraught,” said Hardesty, who describes himself as a conservative Democrat.

Here’s what he would have seen: Trump crowing, “They’ll be hit so g--damn hard,” while bragging about bombing Islamic State militants. And Trump recounting his warning to a wealthy businessman: “If you don’t support me, you’re going to be so g--damn poor.”

To most of America, the comments went unnoticed. Instead, the nation was gripped by the moment a “send her back” chant broke out as Trump went after Somali-born Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, an American citizen. But some Trump supporters were more fixated on his casual use of the word “g--damn” — an off-limits term for many Christians — not to mention the numerous other profanities laced throughout the rest of his speech.

Other profanities? Come on, now. That doesn’t sound like him at all.

3. Remember to keep holy the Lord's day.

President Joe Biden, a practicing Catholic, attends church services regularly. Trump, a practicing narcissist, claimed in 2015 that he attended Manhattan’s Marble Collegiate Church. But that was evidently news to Marble Collegiate Church.

“Donald Trump has had a longstanding history with Marble Collegiate Church, where his parents were for years active members and one of his children was baptized,” the church said in a statement following Trump’s assertion that he attended services there. “However, as he indicates, he is a Presbyterian, and is not an active member of Marble.”

Well, maybe they just didn’t see him! A guy who takes his faith this seriously is unlikely to draw attention to himself. 

4. Honor your father and your mother.

This one’s a gray area. Trump does honor his father by being a virulent racist, but his feelings about his mother appear to be a bit more complicated. 

Politico Magazine:

When Donald Trump moved into the Oval Office in January, he placed on the table behind the Resolute Desk a single family photo—of Fred Trump, his father. Sometime in the spring, White House communications director Hope Hicks told me recently, the president added one of his mother, Mary Trump. When, exactly, and why, Hicks couldn’t or wouldn’t say. This scenario, as uneven as it may seem, was a continuation of the setup in Trump’s office on the 26th floor of Trump Tower, where a photo of his father always was proudly, prominently situated on his desk—and a photo of his mother, in the words of a former staffer, was “noticeably absent.” It can be risky to read too much into the placement of family pictures—except with Trump, it confirms a disparity that has been evident for decades: the looming, constant presence of his father, and the afterthought status of his mother.

So does placing his mother’s photo on his desk as an afterthought amount to “honoring” her? That’s a judgment call. What’s not a judgment call is Trump’s glaring failure to honor the mother of three of his children. He buried her on a golf course. Possibly for the tax benefits.

5. You shall not kill.

At least seven people who died as a result of the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on our Capitol would like a word.

6. You shall not commit adultery.

Bwahahahaha! Do we even have to do this one?

Of course, there’s a potential loophole here, because the commandment does not specifically say, “Thou shalt not grab them by the pussy.” That said, we have plenty of greatest hits to choose from. Let’s just go with the time Trump slept with an adult film star while his wife was home with his newborn son. 

7. You shall not steal.

Context is important here, of course. Is it “stealing” to solicit funds from your pissed-off supporters for a “stop the steal” fund that never existed? Or to funnel money meant for a kids’ cancer charity to your own businesses? Or to systematically commit financial fraud

Nah. The writers of the Old Testament were probably thinking more along the lines of bread crusts and goats. So as long as he doesn’t filch any goats and boil them in their mothers’ milk—at worst, he’d insist that McDonald’s do it for him—he’ll probably get a pass from evangelicals.

8. You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.

Sheesh. Where to start? Bearing false witness is pretty much all he does.

Let’s just go with birtherism, Trump’s entry into the fever swamps of right-wing conspiracy-mongering.

For years, Trump raised suspicions about President Barack Obama’s birth certificate and questioned his eligibility to run for president. In 2011, he even told “Today’s” Meredith Vieira that he’d sent investigators to Hawaii to “study” the conspiracy claims, insisting “they cannot believe what they’re finding.”

But Trump never released those findings, which suggests that he either 1) never actually sent investigators to Hawaii or 2) decided it would be wrong to call into question the legitimacy of a sitting president. That one’s a real puzzler, huh?

For what it’s worth, Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney and fixer, claimed Trump made the story up out of whole cloth because the birther stuff boosted his popularity. 

Both CNN’s Anderson Cooper and ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos later asked him about the status of these investigations, but Trump dodged them both, telling Stephanopoulos, “It’s none of your business right now.” Maybe it’s time the press start asking him about this again—though they won’t because, well, it’s pretty much taken as a given that Trump just makes shit up.

9. You shall not covet your neighbor's wife.

“I moved on her like a bitch, but I couldn’t get there. And she was married. Then all of a sudden I see her, she’s now got the big phony tits and everything. She’s totally changed her look.” — Just some of the delightful comments from Trump revealed in a 2005 conversation caught on a hot microphone.

10. Bonus covetousness! 

Trump’s wife-coveting ways are well established, but we don’t have to take the fake news’ word for it. HE WROTE ABOUT IT IN ONE OF HIS BOOKS!

In “The Art of the Comeback,” Trump wrote (or forced his ghostwriter to write), “If I told my real experiences with women, often seemingly very happily married and important women, this book would be a guaranteed best-seller (which it will be anyway!).”

Okay then!

11. You shall not covet your neighbor's goods.

There are the decades he spent grifting the suckers who trust him. For instance, he cleaned out investors in his public casino company before walking away with $44 million. And he scammed thousands of students at his fake university

Why? Because he wants all the money. You might even say he “covets” it—and his newfound hero Hannibal Lecter would no doubt agree.

Of course, as we all know, Trump is the most Christian-y Christian who ever Christianed, so if the Bible says something that contradicts him, it must be wrong. Luckily, he’s released his own version.

And if that’s not cover enough, the Holy Sharpie will no doubt take care of everything. 

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Here are 9 outrageous facts about Louisiana’s Ten Commandments law

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Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick pledges to pass Ten Commandments bill after Louisiana passes similar law

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is pledging to pass a bill that would require public school and college classrooms to display the Ten Commandments, days after a similar Louisiana measure became law. 

In a social media post, Patrick criticized Texas state House Speaker Dade Phelan, a Republican, for killing a state Senate bill that would have required the display of the Ten Commandments in schools. On Thursday, he vowed to bring the measure back. 

"SB 1515 will bring back this historical tradition of recognizing America’s heritage, and remind students all across Texas of the importance of a fundamental foundation of American and Texas law: the Ten Commandments," Patrick wrote on X. "Putting the Ten Commandments back into our schools was obviously not a priority for Dade Phelan."

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The bill would require Texas public elementary and secondary schools to display the Ten Commandments in each classroom. No requirement is currently in place.

Fox News Digital has reached out to Phelan's office. 

Phelan and Patrick had feuded after Patrick presided over the impeachment trial this year of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

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"Texas WOULD have been and SHOULD have been the first state in the nation to put the 10 Commandments back in our schools," Patrick wrote on X. "But, SPEAKER Dade Phelan killed the bill by letting it languish in committee for a month assuring it would never have time for a vote on the floor." 

This week, Louisiana became the first state to require the Ten Commandments to be displayed in public school classrooms. The American Civil Liberties Union and other civil rights groups said they plan to challenge the law. 

Notre Dame Law School Professor Richard W. Garnett, who is the director of the school’s Program on Church, State & Society, said it is likely several states will make efforts to mirror Louisiana. 

"It remains to be seen whether these kinds of measures are permissible," he told Fox News Digital. "The Supreme Court's doctrine has changed in some areas, but it hasn't changed in all areas."

A key question for the high court will be whether a display like the Ten Commandments "has a coercive effect" on children given their age and that it's in a classroom setting, Garnett said. 

He noted that challengers of such laws will most likely point out that the U.S. is a religiously diverse nation and that public schools are run by the government for a "pluralistic people" despite the country's founding being inspired by some individuals' Christian convictions. 

In a joint statement announcing their opposition to Louisiana's law, the ACLU and civil rights groups noted that religion is a private matter.

"The First Amendment promises that we all get to decide for ourselves what religious beliefs, if any, to hold and practice, without pressure from the government," the statement said. "Politicians have no business imposing their preferred religious doctrine on students and families in public schools."

RNC files lawsuit over noncitizen voting rights in Vermont’s largest city

The Republican National Committee launched a lawsuit this week seeking to ensure only citizens can vote in Burlington, Vermont, elections.

Residents of Burlington, the Green Mountain State’s largest city, approved the charter change in March 2023 that permits noncitizens to vote in municipal elections.

Vermont Republican Gov. Phil Scott later vetoed state approval of the measure, but was overridden by the legislature.

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The RNC said such elections influence Vermont’s education budget, which contradicts the state constitution’s requirement that only citizens can vote on matters affecting the state.

"Americans should decide American elections," RNC Chairman Michael Whatley said in a statement obtained by Fox News Digital.

"Democrats' persistent efforts to enable noncitizen voting dilute the voices of Americans in Vermont and across the country," he said.

In comments to Fox News, an RNC spokesperson added that Democrats’ "persistent efforts" to let noncitizens vote is "alarming."

"Combined with their catastrophic border crisis, noncitizens’ voting prioritizes illegal immigrants over U.S. citizens and jeopardizes our elections," the spokesperson said.

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While noncitizen suffrage remains illegal in federal-level elections, Burlington is not alone in permitting such.

In the Burlington suburb of Winooski, 11 people took advantage of the town’s "all-resident" voting policy, according to NPR.

Bordering Washington, D.C., the city of Takoma Park, Maryland, recently celebrated 30 years of being the first municipality in the nation where noncitizens are permitted to vote. 

A 2023 city statement on the matter said 20% of the approximately 350 noncitizens there cast ballots in the 2017 off-year elections.

Takoma Park’s 1992 policy change was notably spearheaded by resident and then-American University law professor Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md. 

It requires identification and proof of residency, according to a city statement.

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Washington, D.C., itself also allows noncitizen voting in municipal races.

In February, a New York State appeals court overturned New York City’s noncitizen suffrage provisions, while several states in the heartland banned the practice in the early 1900s.

In 2020, Florida and Alabama voters overwhelmingly approved state constitutional amendments by-referendum, declaring only citizens can vote within those states.

Politically, Burlington is otherwise best known as the city where high-profile Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., started his political career. The self-described "democratic socialist" served as the city’s mayor from 1981 to 1989.

Fox News Digital reached out to the city of Burlington for comment. A person who answered the phone at city hall directed Fox News Digital to a communications official who did not respond.

Key Dem Senate candidate who accused opponent of election denialism has history of questioning results

FIRST ON FOX: The Democrat running in one of this year's top Senate races, who accused his opponent of election denialism, also has a history of questioning the legitimacy of the vote.

Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee in Texas' Senate race, recently launched attacks against incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz for avoiding directly saying he would accept the results of the upcoming election, but appears to have forgotten his own statements openly suggesting that future election outcomes may need to be questioned.

"Ted Cruz views questions about our democracy as part of a cynical partisan game. Our democracy isn’t a game. It’s fundamental to who we are as Americans. Ted Cruz is a danger to our freedoms and shared values. We must fire him this November," Allred wrote on X, referencing an appearance by Cruz on liberal network CNN, where he clashed with one of its hosts asking if he'd accept the results this November.

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Cruz pushed back during the interview, questioning why the media never asks Democrats if they would accept election results. He argued that laws in place allowing for results to be challenged on the basis of voter fraud were there for a reason, and hit back at the host's claims there was no fraud during the 2020 election.

Allred, in fact, warned of such fraud ahead of the 2020 election, specifically during an August 2019 appearance at a town hall in Garland, Texas. During the event, he peddled claims that the 2016 election results were due to Russian interference by referencing the Mueller report and Russia hacking into election databases. He also argued there was a need to have "paper trails" on electronic voting machines.

"What we saw in that report may color some of what is happening here, in terms of a willingness to accept foreign interference in elections and things like that. And I think this has raised an entirely new specter for us, which is, is our next election going to be a legitimate one? And that, I think, is a proximate danger for our democracy," Allred said during an appearance on a local radio show in September 2019, again referencing the Mueller report.

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He similarly told a meeting of the Richardson Area Democrats a month later that he was troubled by "the idea that the next election might not be legitimate," suggesting then-President Trump might attempt to use foreign influence to boost his chances at re-election, and said he was "worried still about some of the abilities to hack and change voter rolls and even change vote totals."

Allred said at another town hall meeting that same month that the reason for the then-ongoing Trump impeachment inquiry was "because the legitimacy of the next election was put into question by this President’s actions." 

He said during a Capitol Hill press conference the following year, "We have to decide in this country who’s going to determine our elections. This is only the beginning of this. The Russians in 2016, other foreign influences in 2018. In 2020, there will be other adversaries who will try to take advantage of this."

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Allred continued using similar rhetoric following the 2020 election, including in a 2022 Business Insider article, where he warned of election subversion in that year's midterm elections and in 2024.

"I think there's a very real possibility that we will see in the next two elections, get some results sent to us for ratification – whether it's presidential, congressional or Senate, that's not consistent or that we're gonna have to question… I think that's the reality of the situation we can no longer pretend like these elections are just going to continue to proceed the way they have in the past," he said.

Fox News Digital asked Allred's campaign the same question CNN posed to Cruz: Whether he would accept the outcome of the 2024 election. It offered no response.

Josh Stewart, a spokesperson for Allred's campaign, told Fox regarding the congressman's past questioning of elections, "The only person in this race who tried to overturn a free and fair election is Ted Cruz. Texans saw it with their own eyes on Jan. 6, and come November, they are going to hold him accountable."

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Morning Digest: Freedom Caucus chief loses—just barely—after Trump sought his ouster

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.

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Daily Kos will be off Wednesday in observance of Juneteenth, so there will be no Morning Digest on Thursday. It will return on Friday.

Leading Off

VA-05: State Sen. John McGuire defeated House Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good by the narrowest of margins in Tuesday's Republican primary for Virginia's conservative 5th District, a shockingly close loss—but cold comfort—for an incumbent whose congressional career had looked doomed for quite some time.

The AP had not called the race when we put the Digest to bed, though McGuire declared victory on election night. Good, meanwhile, insisted that he would work to "ensure all the votes are properly counted in the coming days." An unknown number of provisional ballots remain to be tallied, and a recount is possible. However, with McGuire ahead by about 300 votes, a change in the lead would be very unlikely.

McGuire's ultra-tight victory came after Good spent his second and final term infuriating just about every power player in the party, including Donald Trump, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and most of his colleagues. 

The congressman's underdog status seemed cemented when, in early May, McGuire released an internal poll that showed him ahead 45-31. Good's team offered the feeblest of responses: "The only poll that matters is the final count on Election Day," his campaign said in a statement, all but admitting they had no better numbers to counter with.

Trump himself tried to deliver the final blow a short time later by endorsing McGuire. He specifically sought revenge for Good's decision to support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary, a move that had put the Virginian crossways with Trump and his legions of adherents.

Allies of McCarthy also worked to punish Good for joining Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz's successful effort to terminate McCarthy's speakership. Other major donors were eager to simply extricate a troublesome rebel from the House. AdImpact says that, all told, a hefty $9 million was spent on ads that either sought to boost McGuire or tear down Good.

But Good's camp, which included the hardline Club for Growth and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's Protect Freedom PAC, never gave up. Collectively, they spent more than $5 million on the airwaves to try to keep him in office.

The final stretch of the race devolved into warring assertions about internal polling, with both sides claiming to be well ahead. But while Good never produced any data of his own, McGuire's arguments were still based on his original poll, by now six weeks old.

As Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin wryly pointed out, both candidates were "wrong by double digits." But even if his final margin of victory was far skinnier than he anticipated, McGuire got to enjoy the last laugh.

Good's loss, as close as it was, makes him only the second member of Congress from either party to lose renomination anywhere in the country this cycle. But while Alabama Rep. Jerry Carl lost to fellow incumbent Barry Moore in March following a round of court-ordered redistricting, Good is the first representative to lose to a challenger.

Good, who spent the last several months backing unsuccessful primary campaigns against several of his colleagues, will at least feel a pang of recognition at his fate, since he earned his ticket to Capitol Hill four years ago by defeating a Republican congressman. Good decided to take on freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman after the incumbent infuriated hardliners by officiating a same-sex wedding between two of his former campaign volunteers.

The GOP nomination in 2020 was decided not in a primary but at a convention, which just so happened to take place at Good’s own church. Good, an elected official in Campbell County, also benefited from his post as an athletics official at Liberty University, which has long been one of the Christian right's most prominent institutions and is located in the district.

Riggleman fought back with endorsements from Trump and Jerry Falwell Jr. (who would resign in disgrace as Liberty's president two months later), but it wasn't enough. The conclave of some 2,500 delegates favored Good 58-42, though he had a tougher time that fall, managing a surprisingly small 52-47 win over Democrat Cameron Webb in an expensive contest.

(McGuire, who was a member of the state House at the time, lost a convention for the GOP nomination in the old 7th District the following month to fellow Del. Nick Freitas, who in turn lost to Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger.)

Good had no trouble winning renomination at the Republican convention in 2022 and handily prevailed in the general election. But he faced a very different battle this time around. A law passed in 2021 required that all absentee voters have the chance to take part in nomination contests, a policy that made it difficult for political parties in Virginia to hold conventions rather than primaries. That shift may have made all the difference.

But while many of Good's colleagues will be overjoyed to see McGuire replace him in the 5th District, which favored Trump 53-45 in 2020, Riggleman may not be entirely enjoying the schadenfreude.

"McGuire might be more dangerous than Bob Good," Riggleman tweeted in March as he shared a picture of the challenger at the Jan. 6 Trump rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol. "McGuire coming at Bob from the RIGHT— a panting sycophant who will do anything to win," Riggleman continued. "A box of hammers with a love of power." The former congressman went on to write last month, "Bob Good could be worst member—McGuire might be worse!"

Election Recaps

GA-03 (R): Brian Jack, a former aide to Donald Trump, outpaced former state Sen. Mike Dugan 63-37 in the Republican runoff to replace retiring GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson. Jack, who benefited from his old boss' endorsement and spending from a group backed by the cryptocurrency industry, should have no trouble in the general election for this dark red constituency in Atlanta's southwestern exurbs.

OK-04 (R): Rep. Tom Cole easily fended off businessman Paul Bondar 65-26 in an unexpectedly expensive primary for this safely red seat in southern Oklahoma. 

Bondar poured over $5 million of his own money into ads attacking Cole, who chairs the powerful appropriations chairman, as an insider who "voted with Democrats for billions in new deficit spending." But the incumbent and his allies spent millions on their own messaging reminding viewers both that Cole had Donald Trump's support and that Bondar had only recently moved to Oklahoma from Texas.

VA-Sen (R): Navy veteran Hung Cao beat Scott Parkinson, a former official at the Club for Growth, 62-11 in the Republican primary to take on Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine. Two years ago, Cao held Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton to a modest 53-47 victory in the 10th District, but he'll face a far tougher battle against Kaine in a race that neither national party is treating as competitive.

VA-02 (D): Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal defeated attorney Jake Denton 70-30 for the right to take on freshman GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans in a swing district based in Virginia Beach. Smasal, who lost a competitive race for the state Senate in 2019, had the support of the DCCC and all six members of Virginia's Democratic House delegation for her campaign against Kiggans.

VA-07 (D & R): Former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman and Green Beret veteran Derrick Anderson respectively won the Democratic and Republican primaries for Virginia's competitive 7th District based in the southern exurbs of Washington, D.C. The two will face off this fall to succeed Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who decided not to seek reelection so she could focus on her 2025 bid for governor, in a constituency that Joe Biden carried 53-46.

Vindman decisively outpaced his nearest opponent, former Del. Elizabeth Guzman, by a 49-15 margin in a field that also included three sitting local elected officials. The frontrunner, who was a key figure in Donald Trump's first impeachment in 2019, has proven to be one of the strongest House fundraisers in the nation.

Anderson, for his part, defeated former Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton 46-37 in an expensive race. Anderson had the backing of House Speaker Mike Johnson and his allies, while Rand Paul's network spent big for Hamilton.

VA-10 (D & R): State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam edged out Del. Dan Helmer 30-27 in the 12-way Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton in Northern Virginia 10th District, which favored Joe Biden 58-40 four years ago. Subramanyam's election would make him both Virginia's first Indian American and Hindu member of Congress.

Citing worsening symptoms of a serious neurodegenerative disease, Wexton unexpectedly announced her retirement last year while serving her third term. But the endorsement she gave to Subramanyam was likely a key reason he prevailed over Helmer, who outraised the rest of the field and benefited from over $5 million in outside spending.

Helmer also drew ugly headlines during the final week of the campaign after four current and former officials in the Loudoun County Democratic Committee put out a statement accusing him of engaging in "inappropriate behavior" with an unnamed committee member in 2018. Helmer denied the allegations.

Subramanyam will face attorney Mike Clancy, who defeated 2020 GOP nominee Aliscia Andrews 64-21. However, while Republicans have talked about putting this once competitive seat back in play, it remains to be seen whether they'll devote the hefty resources needed to accomplish this herculean effort.

House

AK-AL, FL-08, UT-02: Donald Trump on Monday evening endorsed three candidates in contested House primaries: Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom for Alaska's at-large seat; former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos in Florida's 8th District; and Rep. Celeste Maloy in Utah's 2nd District.

Dahlstrom faces GOP businessman Nick Begich and Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola in the Aug. 20 top-four primary, and none of them should have trouble securing a spot in the instant-runoff general election. (The fourth spot is all but certain to be claimed by one of the nine minor candidates who are also running.) Begich, however, has promised to drop out if Dahlstrom outpaces him this summer, a move that would delight party leaders who view him as a weak candidate and want to avoid infighting.

Trump is one of them, and he wrote Monday that Begich, who is the rare Republican member of Alaska's most prominent Democratic family, "has Democrat tendencies." Trump continued that "most importantly, he refused to get out of this Race last time, which caused the Republicans to lose this important seat to Mary Peltola."

Haridopolos, meanwhile, already appeared to be on a glide path to replace GOP Rep. Bill Posey, who timed his April retirement announcement so that Haridopolos could avoid serious opposition. The former state Senate leader only faces a pair of unheralded primary foes in this conservative seat in the Cape Canaveral area, and he'll be even harder to beat with Trump's blessing.

Maloy, finally, is fighting for renomination next week against Colby Jenkins, an Army Reserve colonel who has far-right Sen. Mike Lee's endorsement, in a safely red constituency based in southwestern Utah. Maloy, though, has the backing of all three of her colleagues in the state's all-GOP delegation. She also used this week to unveil an ad starring Gov. Spencer Cox, who is one of the party's few remaining Trump critics who still holds a prominent office.

Trump's new endorsements came hours before NOTUS' Reese Gorman published a story detailing the far-right Freedom Caucus' frustration with Trump's picks in contested primaries this cycle, including his drive to oust chair Bob Good in Virginia this week. The acrimony is only likely to intensify because the Freedom Caucus is backing both Begich and Jenkins.

Unsurprisingly, the House GOP leadership is not at all sympathetic. "The real story here is that these guys throw a temper tantrum every time Trump endorses against their preferred candidate," an unnamed senior aide told Gorman, "where most of the time their preferred candidate is a total shitbag."

AZ-01: Businessman Andrei Cherny this week picked up an endorsement from Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego, whose city is home to just over 60% of the 1st District's residents, for the July 30 Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. David Schweikert.

CO-03: The Colorado Sun reports that both parties have become heavily involved in next week's GOP primary for Colorado's open 3rd District as Republicans try to counter the Democrats' attempts to pick their preferred opponent. The candidate at the center of all this is former state Rep. Ron Hanks, a far-right election denier whom both sides agree would be a weak GOP nominee for this 53-45 Trump district.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership, is spending at least $325,000 on new TV and radio ads attacking Hanks. The TV spot claims Hanks is insufficiently pro-Trump, arguing that Democrats are supporting him to "elect another liberal to Congress" after the Democratic super PAC Rocky Mountain Values has spent $400,000 this month on ads to aid Hanks or attack a rival. (Democrats previously ran ads last cycle to elevate Hanks in his unsuccessful 2022 Senate primary bid.)

Meanwhile, 2022 Democratic nominee Adam Frisch has put at least $100,000 behind a new TV commercial to deter Republicans from nominating a more formidable candidate, attorney Jeff Hurd. Frisch's spot lambastes Hurd for refusing to clarify his positions on abortion, immigration, and whether he supports Trump. The ad continues, "All we really do know about Jeff Hurd is he's financed by out-of-state corporate money."

Hurd is also taking fire from a Republican rival, financial adviser Russ Andrews, who has spent at least $70,000 on ads opposing him. No copy of Andrews' commercial is available yet, but The Sun's description notes it goes after Hurd for inadequate fealty to Trump and being an "Ivy League Lawyer."

Republican chances of holding this district appeared to improve significantly earlier this cycle when far-right Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert switched to run in the redder 4th District after only beating Frisch by a razor-thin margin in the 3rd last cycle. However, Frisch had already taken advantage of his now-former opponent's national notoriety by raising millions of dollars, funding he's now deploying to ensure that Republicans select another deeply flawed nominee.

FL-01: The House Ethics Committee announced Tuesday that it was continuing to review allegations that Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz had engaged in a wide variety of wrongdoing, including "sexual misconduct and illicit drug use," accepting "improper gifts," awarding "special privileges and favors" to associates, and obstructing investigations into his alleged misdeeds.

The Committee, however, said it was no longer probing a variety of other accusations, including claims that Gaetz had shared "inappropriate" videos on the floor of the House, put campaign funds to personal use, and accepted a bribe.

The panel released its statement one day after Gaetz tweeted that the Committee was "now opening new frivolous investigations" into the congressman despite supposedly having "closed four probes into me."

The Committee disputed that characterization, saying that its current investigation is the same one that had already been underway. It also said it experienced "difficulty in obtaining relevant information from Representative Gaetz and others."

The Committee initially deferred its inquiry after the Justice Department began its own investigation into Gaetz in 2021 regarding the alleged sex trafficking of a minor and other accusations, but that probe ended last year without charges. The Ethics Committee says that it later "reauthorized its investigation after DOJ withdrew its deferral request."

IL-17: Politico has obtained a recent 1892 Polling internal conducted for the NRCC and former state Circuit Judge Joe McGraw, which finds McGraw trailing 44-35 against freshman Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen with 20% undecided. The sample also shows Biden leading Trump just 39-38 in a district Biden carried 53-45 in 2020.

This is the first publicly available survey of the race for Illinois' 17th District, which includes the communities of Rockford and Peoria, since McGraw won the Republican nomination in March.

NY-16: Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman's allies at Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party are spending $900,000 on a TV ad to support the incumbent in next week's primary against Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who has been the beneficiary of most of the outside spending.

First reported by Politico, the commercial takes "Republican megadonors" to task for contributing millions for ads to "smear" Bowman and elevate Latimer, citing news stories to portray the challenger as opposed to key parts of Joe Biden's agenda. The move comes after the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC has spent weeks running spots arguing that Bowman is the one who has undermined Biden, and its newest spot once again criticizes the incumbent for having "voted against President Biden's debt limit deal."

However, data from AdImpact underscores the lopsided advantage that Latimer's side enjoys in blasting out its preferred narrative. AIPAC has deployed $14 million on Latimer's behalf, and the pro-crypto group Fairshake has dropped another $2 million. By contrast, Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party have spent only $1.5 million to aid Bowman.

UT-03: Sen. Mike Lee endorsed state Sen. Mike Kennedy on Monday ahead of next week's five-way Republican primary to replace Rep. John Curtis, who is giving up the 3rd District to campaign to succeed Mitt Romney in Utah's other Senate seat. Kennedy, who briefly attracted national prominence in 2018 by taking on Romney, is a hardliner who has successfully pushed laws like a ban on gender-affirming care for minors.

But while Kennedy won an April party convention dominated by far-right delegates, he's been decisively outspent by a pair of self-funding businessmen who are each hoping to replace Curtis. One of those contenders is Case Lawrence, a former CEO of the trampoline park chain Sky Zone who threw down almost $2.5 million of his own money through June 5. The other is Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird, who self-funded about $1 million.

The race also includes state Auditor John Dougall, who will be listed on the ballot with his nickname "Frugal." Dougall, who is the only statewide elected official in the contest, has paid for billboards identifying him as "MAINSTREAM NOT MAGA," which is an unusual pitch for today's GOP. The Salt Lake Tribune's Robert Gehrke writes that the auditor is the one contender "to publicly criticize and disavow Trump."

Rounding out the field is attorney Stewart Peay, who has Romney's endorsement. (Peay's wife, Misha, is a niece of Romney's wife, Ann.) Peay, who has dodged questions about whether he backs his party's master, has argued he'd emulate one of his MAGA's prominent GOP critics, Gov. Spencer Cox. "I believe in the civility we’ve seen from Cox, the pragmatism you see from John Curtis, and the bipartisanship you see from Mitt Romney," he told the Deseret News.

There has been no outside spending in this contest, nor have we seen any polls. Whoever wins a plurality in next week's GOP primary should have no trouble in the fall for a safely red constituency based in the Provo area, southeastern Salt Lake City, and rural southeastern Utah.

House: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced its first fall TV ad reservations of the 2024 election cycle on Tuesday, with bookings totaling $16.4 million across 15 different media markets. The committee also said it had reserved $12 million for digital advertising in 21 different states that "represent the majority of the House battlefield."

We've added these new television reservations to our continually updated tracker, which also shows which districts the committee likely plans to target. (As yet, we've seen no surprises.) While the DCCC's initial foray is considerably smaller than the $146 million in TV reservations its allies at the House Majority PAC announced in April, this list will grow as new bookings are announced. (In 2022, the D-Trip spent almost $100 million on 45 different races.)

The committee's move also means that three of the four largest outside groups involved in House races have announced their first round of reservations this year. Early last month, the pro-GOP Congressional Leadership Fund said it had booked $141 million in airtime. The National Republican Congressional Committee, however, has yet to make an appearance.

Poll Pile

  • NC-Gov: Spry Strategies (R): Mark Robinson (R): 43, Josh Stein (D): 39 (48-44 Trump in two-way, 45-37 Trump with third-party candidates)
  • AZ-06: Public Opinion Strategies for Juan Ciscomani: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): 50, Kirsten Engel (D): 39 (49-45 Trump)

Ad Roundup

Campaign Action

DC Bar moves to suspend Hunter Biden’s law license after felony conviction

Hunter Biden is poised to lose his license to practice law in Washington, D.C., this week after a disciplinary counsel moved to suspend him after his felony convictions.

The Office of Disciplinary Counsel handles penalties for members of the bar in D.C. It issued a letter to the D.C. Court of Appeals seeking to ensure that the first son "is suspended immediately from the practice of law in the District of Columbia pending resolution of this matter."

The D.C. bar classifies any felony as a "serious crime," and bar policy mandates that the court immediately suspend the law license of anyone convicted of such an offense regardless of the status of an appeal.

The court does have discretion to waive the suspension "when it appears in the interest of justice to do so," according to NBC News.

HUNTER BIDEN FOUND GUILTY ON ALL COUNTS IN GUN TRIAL

Biden was found guilty of three felony gun charges in his Delaware trial on June 11. The charges included making a false statement in the purchase of a gun, making a false statement related to information required to be kept by a federally licensed gun dealer, and possession of a gun by a person who is an unlawful user of or addicted to a controlled substance.

'LIKE A SON': FORMER TOP BIDEN ADVISER WITH DEEP BUSINESS TIES TO CHINA SPOTTED INSIDE HUNTER BIDEN GUN TRIAL

Prosecutors worked to prove that Biden lied on a federal firearm form, known as ATF Form 4473, in October 2018, when he ticked a box labeled "No" when asked if he is an unlawful user of substances or addicted to controlled substances. Biden purchased the gun from a store in Wilmington.

Biden has a well-documented history of drug abuse, which was most notably documented in his 2021 memoir, "Beautiful Things," which walks readers through his previous need to smoke crack cocaine every 20 minutes, how his addiction was so prolific that he referred to himself as a "crack daddy" to drug dealers, and anecdotes revolving around drug deals, such as a Washington, D.C., crack dealer Biden nicknamed "Bicycles."

HOUSE REPUBLICANS REFER HUNTER BIDEN, JAMES BIDEN FOR CRIMINAL PROSECUTION AMID IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY

Hunter Biden's legal team filed and quickly withdrew a motion for a new trial on Monday. Biden attorney Abbe Lowell had argued the court lacked jurisdiction as two appeals in the case are still pending.

"The Third Circuit [appeals court], however, did not then and has not yet issued its mandate as to the orders dismissing either appeal," Lowell wrote in the filing. "Thus, when this Court empaneled the jury on June 3, 2024 and proceeded to trial, it was without jurisdiction to do so."

The motion, however, was quickly withdrawn from a court document website, Reuters reported.

Fox News' Emma Colton contributed to this report

Live coverage: June 18 primaries in Oklahoma and Virginia, plus runoffs in Georgia

Downballot primaries continue tonight with races in three states, with the first polls closing at 7 PM ET in Georgia and Virginia. We'll be liveblogging the results here and also covering the returns closely on X.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:39:54 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-05 (R): The “percentage of vote” counted is just an estimate, and as such, it’s subject to revisions, both up and down. Over the last several minutes, the AP’s estimate has dropped from greater than 95% to 88% to 84% to (now) 79%. Meanwhile, they’ve still been adding votes for both candidates. McGuire is up 52-48 (about 1,100 votes), but suddenly, there’s a lot more runway.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:35:29 AM +00:00 · David Nir

OK-04 (R): Rep. Tom Cole and his allies sure seemed freaked, but the AP just called the race for the longtime Republican congressman, who is leading challenger Paul Bondar by a giant 68-21 margin. Cole & co. spent a ton to protect the incumbent, but evidently, there was no need. Would love to see the internal polling that had them so panicked, though.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:29:02 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-10 (D): We could have a very close race brewing here. Suhas Subramanyam is up 31-26 on Dan Helmer with about 80% reporting, but Subramanyam’s base in Loudon County appears to have finished county. Helmer is leading in everywhere else in the district, though he still would have to make up another 2,000+ votes to close the gap.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:23:02 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-05 (R): This is turning into a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it primary. Good and McGuire have traded leads repeatedly in the last few minutes. At this precise second, McGuire is back up 51.5 to 48.5 with an estimated 79% of the vote reporting, but that could truly change at any second.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:17:41 AM +00:00 · David Nir

OK-04 (R): We should note that polls closed about a quarter of an hour ago in Oklahoma, where veteran GOP Rep. Tom Cole faces an expensive challenge from a guy who’s so new to the state that he literally voted in the Texas primaries in March. Only a trickle of votes so far, though.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:15:56 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-05 (R): Well this is most unexpected. Rep. Bob Good has now moved into a narrow lead of less than 1 point over his challenger, John McGuire. Geoffrey Skelley of 538 does some back-of-the-envelope math and suggests that Good—who had looked like the underdog for the longest time—could actually survive, particularly because most of Campbell County (Good’s home turf) has yet to report.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:11:12 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-07 (D): No surprise: Former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman has won the Democratic nomination in a walk, per the AP, which has called the race with Vindman up 51-14 on his closest opponent. Vindman benefitted from his close association with his identical twin brother, Alexander, who was a key figure in Donald Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. That allowed Vindman to raise enormous sums in the form of small-dollar donations from progressives, something local elected officials just could not match.

It’s not clear yet who his Republican opponent will be for this swingy seat, but Army veteran Derek Anderson is leading right now.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:07:42 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-02 (D): The AP has called the Dem primary for Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal, who now heads to a general election against freshman GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans. Joe Biden carried the 2nd, which is based in the Hampton Roads suburbs, by a slender 50-48 margin, so this should be a competitive race.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 · 12:04:10 AM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-05 (R): If you’re watching a live AP tally, the results have been going haywire. At the moment, McGuire is up 53-47 with 42% counted, but at least twice, the AP shot all the way to 69% (and gave McGuire a 40-point lead). That appears to have been based on an error, though.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:59:17 PM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-07 (D & R): We’ve finally crossed the 10% mark in the Dem primary, where former National Security Council adviser Eugene Vindman has a giant 54-14 lead on his nearest opponent, former Del. Elizabeth Guzman, with 12% reporting. On the GOP side (where the AP says almost half of all votes are tallied), Army veteran Derrick Anderson 47-37 on former Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton.

This race is for the right to succeed Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who announced her retirement to focus on her 2025 bid for governor.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:55:37 PM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-02 (D): We just shot up to 19% reporting, and Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal has a commanding 68-32 lead on attorney Jeremiah Denton. In a rare move, the DCCC decided to back Cotter Smasal (who lost a competitive race for the state Senate in 2019) ahead of the primary. Dems are eager to unseat first-term GOP Rep. Jennifer Kiggans, who defeated Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in 2022 in this swingy district.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:53:08 PM +00:00 · David Nir

GA-03 (R): The AP has called this runoff for Brian Jack, a former Trump aide who will now be on a glide path to Congress given this district’s deep red lean. The guy he’s replacing, incidentally, is retiring GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson, who is bailing on Congress at the age of just 57 after only four terms. Another sign of how lovely life must be in the Republican caucus.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:43:11 PM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-07 (D & R): This open seat in the exurbs south of D.C. is extremely swingy and therefore both parties’ primaries tonight are high on everyone’s watch list. But there’s something strange going on here, too. The AP thinks that 30% of the vote has been tallied for the GOP but just 4% for Democrats. It’s hard to understand what the thinking is here, but we’re gonna hold off a bit so that we delve into this more.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:39:27 PM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-10 (D): Subramanyam has now legged out to a much larger 34-21 lead on Helmer with more than a third reporting, on the strength of a good showing (comparable to his overall lead) in Loudon County.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:35:39 PM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-05 (R): Things are, as expected, looking rough for GOP Rep. Bob Good in the 5th District. He trails state Sen. John McGuire 52-48 with an estimate 12% reporting, but this appears to be the advance vote (ie, mail and/or early voting). McGuire, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, is likely to do even better with Election Day voters, since the MAGA base hates mail voting. (In case you were wondering what’s got Trump so upset, Good, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, committed the unforgivable sin of endorsing Ron DeSantis in the presidential race.)

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:32:57 PM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-Sen (R): The AP has called this race for Navy veteran Hung Cao, who ran a reasonably creditable campaign for the House last cycle in the 10th District but now will be a massive underdog against Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:29:38 PM +00:00 · David Nir

VA-10 (D & R): We’re at our threshold in Northern Virginia’s open 10th District, a once-Republican seat that has swung sharply toward Dems in the Trump era. State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who has the backing of retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton for the Democratic nod, is up 26-21 on Del. Dan Helmer, who is the best-funded candidate in the race. Former state Education Secretary Atif Qarni is in third with 15%, but this one could be volatile.

A bit oddly, the AP is saying 18% of votes have been counted on the Dem side but 48% have already been tallied for the GOP. That would imply a huge turnout disparity, which is not impossible but bears keeping an eye on (the AP often shifts its estimates of the vote reporting). Republican Mike Clancy has a massive lead.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:23:49 PM +00:00 · David Nir

GA-03 (R): In the runoff for Georgia’s open (and very conservative) 3rd District, former Trump aide Brian Jack has jumped out to an early 63-37 lead on former state Sen. Mike Dugan with around 14% reporting. Jack had the endorsement of his old boss and also had a wide lead in the first round, so a victory for him is quite likely.

UPDATE: Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 · 11:09:45 PM +00:00 · David Nir

Good evening, everyone! We have a tiny trickle of votes in Georgia, but nothing worth discussing yet. As is our practice, we always wait until we have at least 10% of the estimated vote tallied before we talk about any results.

But as keen election watchers know, things can change a lot even once that threshold is hit. That’s especially true on primary nights, where different areas report in at different times—and when different candidates often have regional bases of support. In addition, mail and early votes often behave differently from votes cast in-person on election day, and the former are usually counted first. So strap in!

Tom Cole wins crowded GOP primary to fight for 12th term in November

Longtime House Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., won his Tuesday night primary and is on track to clinch his 12th term in the House of Representatives this November.

Cole, who currently serves as chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, was facing a crowded GOP led by opponent Paul Bondar. Bondar is a political outsider and a businessman who has poured millions of his own dollars into the race.

The senior Republican has represented Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district since January 2003. The district encompasses part of Oklahoma City and the city of Norman.

BATTLE FOR THE LAST FRONTIER: REPUBLICANS LOOK TO TAKE BACK HISTORICALLY GOP-HELD HOUSE SEAT IN ALASKA

Cole had been expected to get at least a plurality of the vote, given his deep ties to Oklahoma GOP politics, but his reputation for working across the aisle has earned him challenges from his right flank.

Bondar has tried to style himself as a more conservative alternative to Cole, bashing the congressman for being willing to work with Democrats on issues like government funding and Ukraine aid. Cole's campaign has in turn styled Bondar as a carpetbagger trying to buy the race. 

Cole also came into the Tuesday election armed with an endorsement from former President Trump, who won the district by double digits in 2020.

DEMOCRATS ‘FEAR’ THIS POSSIBLE TRUMP VP PICK WHO ‘SOULD SPELL THE END FOR BIDEN’: INSIDERS

"Tom Cole is a fantastic Representative for Oklahoma’s 4th Congressional District. As Chairman of the POWERFUL Appropriations Committee, Tom is fighting hard to Secure the Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Vets, Support our Great Law Enforcement, and Protect our always-under-siege Second Amendment," Trump wrote on Truth Social in May. 

"He has almost always voted with me, including on both Impeachment Hoaxes. Tom Cole has my Complete and Total Endorsement – He will not let you down!"

BLACK MALE VOTERS SOUR ON BIDEN, TRUMP: 'TIRED OF BEING FORCED TO CHOOSE THE LESSER OF THE GREATER EVILS'

In addition to supporting Trump, Cole has also been a staunch ally of House GOP leadership. He previously served as head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), House Republicans' campaign arm, and before taking the Appropriations Committee gavel he served as the top Republican on the House Rules Committee.

Other Republican hopefuls who ran to unseat Cole on Tuesday night are Nick Hankins, Rick Harris and Andrew Hayes.