Month: November 2022

How the midterms could impact the Russia-Ukraine war

Posted on (Updated by Colin Meyn

The midterm elections, which are largely being fought over inflation, crime and other domestic issues, could have a huge impact on America’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the likely Speaker in a GOP majority, has talked about how Ukraine would not get a “blank check” from the U.S. with Republicans in control of the House.  

GOP victories by pro-Trump candidates in the House and Senate could also amplify isolationist voices that have questioned the Biden administration’s steady spending in support of Ukraine.  

“I just see a freight train coming, and that is Trump and his operation turning against aid for Ukraine,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told MSNBC last month, underscoring a widely-held concern among Democrats. He added that there could be “a real crisis where the House Republican majority would refuse to support additional aid to Ukraine.” 

Statements from GOP lawmakers such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) have added to the anxiety. During a rally last week, she said a GOP majority would not spend “another penny” on Ukraine.  

To be sure, there are many voices within the GOP that have been highly supportive of Ukraine during the conflict with Russia, including Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).  

Sen. James Risch (Idaho) and Rep. Michael McCaul (Texas), the top Republicans in the foreign affairs committees in each chamber, have been leading voices in support of arming Ukraine, often pushing for Biden to do more.   

Danielle Pletka, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Republican Senate foreign policy staff member, said a majority of Republicans want to back Ukraine against Russia’s aggression.  

“For me, it is about the great battle of the substantive versus the loud,” she said, placing figures like Greene in the latter category. “But these are not people who have any power at all in the House or the Senate.”

But it is also true that McCarthy’s comments reflect skepticism about U.S. economic and military support for Ukraine within his conference. 

And the first test of GOP resistance to additional Ukraine aid could come before the end of this session, with the Biden administration expected to push for another aid package during the lame-duck period before January.

Rep. Jim Banks (Ind.), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, said McCarthy was “exactly right” with his no-blank-check comments.  

“Now Democrats are screaming and saying 'Well, McCarthy says that, we know he's gonna be Speaker of the House. We're gonna pass another $50 billion in the lame duck.' It’s just absurd. It’s insanity,” he told Fox News last month.  

That package is likely to pass with Democrats still in control of the House and Senate no matter the results of the midterms. But the level of GOP opposition could indicate how much of the caucus remains on board with strong support for Kyiv. And Banks’s remarks could find even more support if the U.S. economy tips into a recession in 2023.  

Ukraine is likely to be watching the results of the midterms with some anxiety, though Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the BBC last week that he was confident that both parties would keep up support for Kyiv after meetings with lawmakers.  

“I got a lot of signals that it doesn't matter who will steer … bipartisan support for Ukraine will be continued,” he said. “I believe in that.” 

Andres Kasekamp, a political science professor at the University of Toronto who studies the war, said the GOP is “exploiting” the narrative that America must choose between investing in the U.S. on one hand or helping Ukraine on the other. He accused some in the GOP of abandoning the idea that upholding a rules-based international order is in the U.S. interest.  

“That used to be something that was common sense and in the DNA of the Republican Party,” he said. “Now the sort of populists on the far right of the Republican Party have changed the narrative, and it’s dangerous.” 

So far, Americans remain largely united behind U.S. support for Ukraine, thought recent polls have shown a growing partisan divide. 

A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted in early October found that 81 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of Republicans agreed that the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine, despite nuclear warnings from Russia.  

A Wall Street Journal poll this month found that 81 percent of Democrats support additional financial aid for Ukraine, compared to 35 percent of Republicans. And almost half of Republicans said the U.S. is doing too much, up from 6 percent at the start of the war.  

“It plays right into the hands of Putin,” Kasekamp said of skepticism toward Ukraine support. “The Russians from the beginning have tried to dissuade the West from helping the Ukrainians.” 

Former President Trump has said current U.S. policy risks World War III, advocating instead for the U.S. to pressure Ukraine to open peace talks with Russia.  

Last month, he found rare common cause with progressive Democrats in the House, who released and then retracted a letter calling on President Biden to ramp up diplomatic efforts to end the war.  

Tuesday’s election could bolster the ranks of Ukraine skeptics. J.D. Vance, the Trump-backed GOP Senate nominee in Ohio, said earlier this year that he didn’t care about Ukraine, and wanted Biden to focus on the U.S. border.  

Pletka, the former GOP staffer, said she worried that the far right and far left — for different reasons — will decide to capitulate to Putin and pressure Ukraine to take a peace deal.  

“I could absolutely see the appeasement wing of the Democratic Party having a meeting of minds, if you can call them that, with the fortress America-first wing of the Republican party and doing the wrong thing,” she said.  

Despite Ukraine projecting confidence in continued support from both parties, Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Kyiv has cause for concern.  

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy learned the hard way in 2019 how much domestic U.S. politics can affect Ukraine’s reality,” she wrote last week, referring to Trump’s first impeachment trial.  

“He and his team would be right to worry about next week’s polls. Whether or not the GOP will follow through on its threats to scale back Ukraine aid is impossible to predict, but it is definitely a real possibility,” she added. 

Nancy Pelosi Hints Attack On Her Husband May Lead to Retirement

Posted on by Rusty Weiss

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi indicates that the recent brutal hammer attack on her husband in their San Francisco home has her pondering retirement.

Her comments came during her first sit-down interview since the attack, an appearance with CNN’s Anderson Cooper.

“There’s been a lot of discussion about whether you’d retire if Democrats lose the House,” Cooper said, referencing the Democrats’ expected midterm shellacking on Tuesday.

While declining to make an announcement, Pelosi acknowledged, “The decision will be affected about what happened over the last week or two.”

Cooper continued to press: “Will your decision be impacted by the attack in any way?”

“Yes,” she replied.

RELATED: Report: Paul Pelosi’s Hammer-Wielding Attacker Is an Illegal Immigrant

Pelosi Prepping for Retirement?

Ever the master manipulator, Pelosi is already trying to control the narrative following the midterm elections.

Rather than admitting she’s about to be retired due to a Republican red wave, she wants to be able to say that political violence caused by Trump and his supporters forced her to step aside.

Pelosi even said she agrees with President Biden that there is a direct correlation between the hammer attack and January 6th, calling it a “copycatter” event “inflamed by the same misrepresentation.”

“There’s no question. It’s the same thing,” she added.

RELATED: Fox’s Jesse Watters Slams Gavin Newsom After CA Governor Accuses Him of ‘Aiding and Abetting’ Paul Pelosi Attack

She’s an Outstanding Master of Resources

Aside from discussing retirement, Nancy Pelosi went on endlessly rave about why she was allegedly the true target of her husband’s hammer-wielding assailant.

“I’ve been a target for a long time. Because I’m very effective,” she bragged. “I’m a great … master of the legislation.”

“On the political side, I’m an outstanding, shall we say, a master of the resources necessary, intellectual, financial, political to win elections,” Pelosi added.

“So they have to put a stop to me, right, because they know that I’m about having our members succeed.”

Here again, notice the use of the word “they.” Pelosi is attempting to portray the attacker as more than a lone lunatic who broke into their home late at night, and rather, a representative of the pro-Trump movement.

She’s a master alright. A master manipulator.

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Former President Donald Trump has a different term for her.

“I think she’s an animal, too, to tell you the truth,” Trump said at a rally Monday night, after referring to MS-13 gang members as the same.

Trump would go on to point out how the media will run with his ‘animal’ comment and link it to the attack at Casa de Pelosi.

“They’ll say, ‘What a horrible thing. He called Nancy Pelosi an animal,’” he predicted.

Trump was commenting on impeachment efforts led by the House Speaker.

“I will never use the word bullshit again. But what she did to us in this country … ” he lamented.

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The election is about to turn this Kevin McCarthy ally into the king of K Street

Posted on by By Hailey Fuchs

Tuesday’s elections don’t just threaten to upend the balance of power in Congress. They could usher in a seismic shift on K Street, too — in the process making a relatively private 48-year-old lobbyist at an upstart firm one of the most powerful people in the nation’s capital.

Jeff Miller is not a household name, but he stands to yield tremendous influence when the next Congress gets sworn into office.

That’s because no one on K Street is as close to Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Miller.

"A lot of people like to think that they’re close to Kevin,” said a former McCarthy aide. “There are very few people who actually talk to him about stuff or that he reaches out to proactively on stuff … Obviously, Jeff is a very key and central figure of that group.”

The two met when Miller was in high school working as a Republican Party intern and McCarthy, 10 years his senior, was a district field rep for a California congressman. By the time McCarthy was bidding to lead the Republican conference back in 2015, Miller had the lawmaker’s ear. And he’s remained a steadfast ally, close confidant, travel companion, helpful fundraiser, and political consigliere ever since.

On Monday evening — the night before the elections that could ultimately help deliver McCarthy his long sought Speaker’s gavel — he was by the congressman’s side at a campaign event in Virginia Beach.

Should McCarthy end up as the next Speaker, Miller, a paid lobbyist for some of the biggest companies in America, stands poised to be the K Street operative with unmatched access.

“Everyone else is a distant second,” said Sam Geduldig, a fellow GOP lobbyist.

The ties between elected officials and the influence industry has always been blurry, with staff and members often going through the revolving door. But few relationships are as tight as the one that exists between Miller and McCarthy.

His proximity to the California Republican has been a big draw for businesses eager to get their issues and pet causes considered before Congress.

Miller Strategies, founded in 2017, boasts a number of Fortune 500 companies with major legislative interest, including Apple, tobacco giant Altria, Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, and the Big-Tech funded Connected Commerce Council. Potential new clients have already begun approaching the firm, according to a GOP operative familiar with Miller and McCarthy. Public records show that Miller Strategies has registered several new clients in recent months, including the United States Tennis Association.

Miller declined to talk about his business strategy, choosing instead to praise the man with whom he has shared a special bond.

“I've known Kevin for more than 30 years, and I could not be more proud of his raw grit, determination, and hard work to make everything that he’s making happen not just for the House but for the country,” Miller said. “The guy’s an amazing leader, and I’m proud to know him.”

While his relationship to McCarthy is about to pay off royally, Miller could face some hurdles in a Republican-run congress. He will have to balance his work for a number of major corporate entities and a GOP leadership increasingly acrimonious towards Big Business. McCarthy himself has targeted the Chamber of Commerce, the main corporate lobby in Washington, over its decision to support Democrats.

Conservative activists, just this week, have called for House Republicans to investigate those companies who have pulled advertisements from Twitter after Elon Musk’s takeover of the site. Other major entities, from Disney to Major League Baseball, have faced intense Republican blowback over taking socially liberal stands. And some GOP lawmakers have pledged to start cracking down on big tech monopolies.

These tensions appeared to be visible this past week when Miller’s firm parted ways with its client Amazon Web Services. Amazon is one of those tech giants that have been targeted by conservatives, most prominently former President Donald Trump.

Corporate America has been skeptical of Republicans too. In the wake of the riot at the Capitol, some major businesses pledged to stop giving to Republican lawmakers who objected to the certification of Joe Biden’s election — a group that included McCarthy himself.

But those boycotts have partially faded. And, Miller himself has proven valuable for the GOP on this front. He worked to assuage concerns of corporate donors in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riot and to ensure the big dollar spigot remained open. National Republican Congressional Committee finance director Leigh Ann Gillis called Miller “the MVP of House Republican fundraising efforts this cycle.”

But Miller is also hardly a traditional K Street power player. He splits his time between Texas and D.C., making him a bit different than the other lobbyists in town (he is also a principal at the tax services firm Ryan). He also didn’t graduate from college. He grew up in a working class family in Tehachapi, Calif., a short drive from McCarthy’s hometown of Bakersfield. His father ran a gun manufacturing business. The two men met while McCarthy was working for Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.), as he tried to kill firearms-related legislation.

“Jeff has always had Kevin’s ear,” said John Stipicevic, McCarthy’s former deputy chief of staff whom other Republican lobbyists described as the second closest McCarthy insider on K Street. “They grew up together in the world of politics in D.C.”

Miller’s also is relatively new to the influence peddling business in Washington. He did not begin lobbying the White House or Congress until the start of Trump’s presidency. Beyond working as a McCarthy advisor, Miller served as an advisor to former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, and campaign manager of Rick Perry’s 2016 presidential bid.

His style is described by contemporaries as direct. And he also is not immune from engaging in political dark arts.

Some of his California political deals embroiled Miller in scandal. Although he was not formally accused of misconduct, a dark money scheme he ran with a business partner around California ballot initiatives led to a probe that resulted in millions of dollars in fines levied against a number of other groups involved.

Washington D.C., however, has been largely good for him, especially during the Trump administration.

The confirmation of Perry to serve as Energy Secretary meant Miller had ties to a Cabinet official. Companies noticed. The first registered D.C. clients of Miller’s firm in 2017 included the energy companies Southern Company and Energy Transfer Partners. Miller was able to secure meetings with key administration officials including Perry and then-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, according to documents obtained by the watchdog group American Oversight under the Freedom of Information Act.

When Trump left office, business slowed. The firm’s revenue dropped from $14 million in 2020 to a little under $8 million in 2021.

But political winds change. And as Republicans look likely to recapture one if not two chambers of Congress, the lawmaker that Miller has helped propel to power soon may be his golden ticket.

“I don’t think … [McCarthy] would be as successful of a fundraiser as he is without Jeff’s help,” said Geduldig, adding that he thought even the GOP leader ”would acknowledge that.”

Olivia Beavers, Jordain Carney, & Caitlin Oprysko contributed reporting.

Posted in Uncategorized

Pelosi says she ‘absolutely’ draws parallel between husband’s attack, Jan. 6

Posted on (Updated by Mychael Schnell

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Monday said she “absolutely” draws a line between last month’s attack on her husband, Paul Pelosi, 82, and the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.

The Speaker sat with CNN’s Anderson Cooper for her first sit-down interview since the brutal assault on her husband at their San Francisco home. During that conversation, Cooper quoted President Biden, who, in remarks last week, drew a similarity between the assault on Paul Pelosi, and the Capitol riot.

“The assailant entered the home, asking: 'Where is Nancy? Where is Nancy?' Those were the same words used by the mob when they stormed the United States Capitol on Jan. 6,” Cooper said, quoting Biden.

“That's right,” Pelosi responded.

Asked by Cooper if she draws the same line, Pelosi said “absolutely.”

“There's no question. It's the same -- the same thing, and a copycat or whatever it happens to be, inflamed by the same misrepresentation,” she added.

An alleged assailant broke a glass door and entered the Pelosis’ San Francisco home in the early hours of Oct. 28 and struck Paul Pelosi in the head with a hammer, authorities said. He was transported to a hospital after the attack where he underwent successful surgery to treat a skull fracture and injuries to his right arm and hands, and was released on Thursday.

Authorities and a source, however, have since revealed that the Speaker was the intended target of the incident.

According to the Justice Department’s affidavit, the alleged attacker — who authorities have identified as David DePape, 42 — threatened to hold the Speaker hostage and break her kneecaps.

“DEPAPE stated that he was going to hold Nancy hostage and talk to her. If Nancy were to tell DEPAPE the ‘truth,’ he would let her go, and if she ‘lied,’ he was going to break ‘her kneecaps,’” the affidavit reads.

DePape also told authorities he was “looking for Nancy,” according to the charging documents.

A source briefed on the attack told The Hill shortly after the incident that before the assault occurred, the suspect confronted Paul Pelosi and shouted “where is Nancy? Where is Nancy.”

The phrase led some to draw parallels to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, when rioters who stormed the building demanded to know where the Speaker was, including some who ransacked her office.

In one video of the riot, presented at former President Trump’s impeachment proceedings, a voice asks “where are you, Nancy? We’re looking for you.”

“Nancy. Oh Nancy. Nancy. Where are you, Nancy?” the voice adds.

On Monday, the Speaker told CNN that the attack was “a flame that was fueled by misinformation and all the rest of that, which is most unfortunate. It shouldn't — has no place in our democracy.”

Multiple sources reported after the attack that DePape posted about conspiracy theories online, including ones regarding COVID-19 vaccines and the Capitol riot, and had posted about QAnon.

Later in the interview, Pelosi called for a message to be sent to Republicans to stop its engagement with misinformation.

“I do think that there has to be some message to the Republicans to stop, to stop the disinformation, because that is, without any question, a source of what happened on January 6, and the denial of that, and then the source of what's happening to me now,” she said.

Since the attack on Paul Pelosi, some figures have elevated conspiracy theories casting doubt on the incident, including new Twitter CEO Elon Musk and former President Trump. Asked what she has to say to those individuals, the Speaker responded “it’s really sad for the country.”

“It's really sad for the country that people of that high visibility would separate themselves from the facts and the truth in such a blatant way. It's really sad. And it is traumatizing to those affected by it,” she said.

“They don't care about that, obviously. But it is -- it's destructive to the unity that we want to have in our country. But I don't have anything to say to them. I mean, I — we have nothing — there would be no common ground to have any conversation with them,” she added.

GOP Leader McCarthy Again Gets Squishy When Asked About Impeaching Biden

Posted on by Becky Noble

As Republican voters head to the polls with the intention of electing people they believe will hold Democrats accountable for the last two years, celebration might be a bit premature.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), likely the next Speaker of the House, is doing his best to let the air out of that balloon.

Recently, McCarthy sat down with CNN’s Melanie Zanona, who asked the GOP leader, “…Investigations a huge priority, I know you’ve said not going to predetermine outcome, but is impeachment on the table?” 

While understandably wanting to keep his cards close to the vest, McCarthy dodged the question like he was in The Matrix:

“You know what’s on the table? Accountability. Shouldn’t we know where the origins of COVID actually started? They didn’t have one hearing. Shouldn’t we know what happened in the last 60 days of Afghanistan, so we wouldn’t repeat that again, so we wouldn’t have 13 new Goldstar families, that should have never happened? Shouldn’t we know why the DOJ would take it upon themselves to go after parents that would go to school board meetings?”

RELATED: GOP Chairwoman: If Republicans Win Control Of Congress They’ll Work With Biden 

Follow Up And Squishy Response

McCarthy continued, saying, “Shouldn’t we know where the taxpayers’ money is being spent? I call that accountability. That’s a responsibility for congress regardless of whose ever party is in the White House.”

To Zanona’s credit, she didn’t let McCarthy off the hook just yet. She followed up with, “Some of your members already calling for impeachment. What do you say to those members?”

McCarthy dodged again:

“One thing I’ve known about the land of America, it’s the rule of law. And we will hold the rule of law and we won’t play politics with this. We’ll never use impeachment for political purposes. That doesn’t mean if something rises to the occasion it would not be used. At any other time, it wouldn’t matter if it’s Democrats or Republicans. But the idea of what Democrats have done, what Adam Schiff has done, is treacherous… We’re better than that. We need to get our nation back on track. That’s what the Commitment to America does.”

RELATED: Elon Musk Endorses A Red Wave, Urges Independents To Vote Republican

Is This An Early Sign Of A GOP Cave-In?

Kevin McCarthy was not the only Republican who appeared to be getting wobbly in the knees. Over the weekend, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel was interviewed by CNN’s Dana Bash. 

McDaniel is under the mistaken idea that Joe Biden is equivalent to Bill Clinton in 1994, and that Biden will view the election outcome as a sign that they want him to work with the GOP.

She stated, “If we win back the House and the Senate, it’s the American people saying to Joe Biden, ‘We want you to work on behalf of us and we want you to work across the aisle and solve the problems that we are dealing with.'” 

McDaniel must not spend a lot of time talking with Republicans. They want their leaders to oppose Biden and his agenda. Not “work with him.”

While Kevin McCarthy may not want to appear as if he is embracing the idea of impeachment, there could be a lot of pressure on him to pull the impeachment trigger.

Joe Kent is an America First Republican running for Congress in Washington state. He essentially laid out the case for Biden impeachment that could be tempting for Republicans, and their constituents.

“I say if you’re the Commander-in-Chief and you invite an invasion on our southern border, if you’re the Commander-in-Chief and you leave Americans on the battlefield in Afghanistan to fall into the hands of the Taliban, what are we supposed to do with you?” 

It’s a fair point. 

Newsflash to Republicans. If the American people give you the keys to the House, it is not because they want you to be nice.

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GOP Chairwoman: If Republicans Win Control of Congress They’ll Work With Biden

Posted on by Rusty Weiss

Ronna McDaniel, Chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and niece of Senator Mitt Romney, declared that Republicans will reach across the aisle and work with President Biden should they win control of Congress following the midterms.

Her comments came during an interview with Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union” over the weekend.

McDaniel initially called for a new era of bipartisanship which would focus on the President having to accept the election results as a mandate to work with Republicans.

“If we win back the House and the Senate, it’s the American people saying to Joe Biden, ‘We want you to work on behalf of us and we want you to work across the aisle and solve the problems that we are dealing with,'” she said.

McDaniel pointed to Bill Clinton who famously turned his fortunes around after a Republican election sweep in 1994 by embracing fiscal responsibility and moving further to the center in governing.

RELATED: GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy Pre-Surrenders, Saying GOP Won’t Impeach Biden

Ronna McDaniel: GOP Will Work With Biden

Bash pointed out that bipartisanship cuts in both directions and would require Republicans to be open to working with Biden as well.

“Would Republicans be willing to do the same and not just be a roadblock for him?” she asked.

“We have to,” McDaniel replied. “We have to work on behalf of the American people.”

Going back to McDaniel’s claim that a red wave is an indication that Biden must work with Republicans, simply saying that the reverse is also true is a fundamental misunderstanding of the mandate American voters will be giving the GOP.

They want you to be that roadblock.

Voters aren’t turning to Republican candidates in droves because they want them to work with President Biden. If that were the case they’d just vote for Democrats.

The mandate is to shut him down. To keep him and his party and his ideology from destroying the country any more than he already has.

What would you have them compromise on? Open borders? Illegal immigrants voting in our elections? Abortion without limitations? Economic ruin? Biological males competing in women’s sports? Drag queen story hours for kids? Decimated retirement savings plans?

Which of those do you want to reach across the aisle on, Ms. McDaniel?

Because Election Day is likely to show voters don’t want to compromise on any of it. President Biden is already the worst president in the history of this country. There is no compromise with this man and his radical party.

RELATED: Matt Gaetz Warns There Are Republican Squishes Already Trying to Shut Down Biden Impeachment

Consistently Surrendering Before the Election

To paraphrase Groundskeeper Willie of “The Simpsons,” the American people aren’t interested in a party full of ‘surrender monkeys,’ cheese-eating or otherwise.

It’s the Republicans’ job post-election to stop the bleeding. And that means stopping President Biden, not helping him.

“I don’t live in Washington, D.C. I live in Michigan. I talk to people every day,” McDaniel continued after suggesting the GOP would work with Biden.

“I talk to restaurant owners who are desperate to find labor. I talk to families who are dealing, including mine, with these education deficits with our kids being locked down,” she continued.

If she did it’s very likely they would have never said, ‘We want you to work with Biden.’

In fact, it’d be a safe bet that many more uttered the same words brought to you by Rashida Tlaib than anything else.

Ronna McDaniel’s comments aren’t the first example of pre-surrendering to President Biden before the elections have been held.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, quite likely the next Speaker of the House, has already indicated that should the GOP win back congressional control in the 2022 midterms, they will not impeach Biden.

“I think the country doesn’t like impeachment used for political purposes at all,” said McCarthy. “If anyone ever rises to that occasion, you have to, but I think the country wants to heal and … start to see the system that actually works.”

Heal? Work across the aisle?

President Biden had ample opportunity to take that path during his first two years in office. Instead, he has done nothing but demonize Republican voters as MAGA extremists, cast out concerned parents as domestic terrorists, and suggested everyday Americans are white supremacists.

He has politicized the FBI and DOJ to harass and pursue political opponents at every turn. He is the actual danger to democracy.

No, it’s not time to work across the aisle. Or to placate this President in order to heal the country. It’s time to put that worn-out donkey and his party out to pasture. To save the country.

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Expected Trump indictment looms over midterm election 

Posted on (Updated by Alexander Bolton

The expected indictment of Donald Trump is looming over the midterm elections as both parties are preparing for a major battle after Election Day if Attorney General Merrick Garland moves forward with an unprecedented prosecution of a former president. 

Republican lawmakers in both the Senate and the House are warning they will put up a staunch defense of Trump if the Department of Justice announces an indictment, which some GOP aides and strategists expect to come in the first 60 to 90 days after Election Day.  

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is already warning that GOP lawmakers could use their power of the purse to reign in the Justice Department if prosecutors indict Trump, which he says would be using law enforcement authority as a political weapon. 

“If Biden treats the Department of Justice as partisan stormtroopers, then Congress is justified in using whatever tools Congress has to stop that abuse of power,” Cruz told The Hill in an interview, when asked about the possibility of holding up Justice Department funding.  

If an indictment of Trump does come before mid-December, Justice Department funding likely would become a political football as congressional leaders work to pass legislation to fund the government for the next year.

Cruz, who has a new book out, “Justice Corrupted: How the Left Weaponized the Legal System,” says any indictment of Trump would serve as more evidence that the Justice Department has let partisan politics dictate its decision-making.  

He believes the Justice Department will announce an indictment of Trump at around the same time it announces charges against Hunter Biden, the president’s son, in an effort to show that it is acting in an even-handed way.  

“The Biden White House wants to indict Donald Trump and they want to put whatever fig leaf in front of them they can to make it appear slightly less partisan,” Cruz said, pointing to what he called a series of “coordinated” leaks to lay the groundwork for an indictment.   

Sensitive to Republican accusations that the Justice Department is driven by partisan politics, senior Justice Department officials have discussed the possibility of appointing a special prosecutor to handle the investigations and any possible indictment of the former president.  

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who would become chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations if he wins reelection and Republicans win control of the Senate, says one of his top priorities will be to investigate what his spokeswoman called the “corruption and politicization of federal law enforcement and our intelligence agencies.” 

Johnson last month proposed setting up a select congressional committee similar to the Senate’s Church Committee established in 1975 to investigate whether the CIA spied on anti-war protesters.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is expected to take over as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee if Republicans capture the House, plans to investigate the Justice Department’s search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home for classified documents.

House Judiciary Committee Republicans on Friday released a 1,000-page report detailing what they called “a rampant culture of unaccountability, manipulation and abuse at the highest level” at the Department of Justice and FBI.  

Reports circulated on Friday that Trump could announce a reelection bid as soon as Nov. 14.

He’d be the instant front-runner in the Republican presidential primary field and Senate GOP aides predict the party’s conservative base would quickly rally to his defense against any criminal charges brought by the Justice Department.  

An early Trump bid could also be interpreted as a warning shot at Justice that any indictment of him as he runs for the White House would be political.

Some think their party has a better chance of retaking the White House with a different standard-bearer. But few of these Republicans are likely to back an indictment.

Former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who served as a counselor to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) leadership team during his time in the Senate, said the Republican backlash to an indictment against Trump will be “massive” and “overwhelming.”  

“Even people like myself who have no use for Donald Trump and think he’s been very unfortunate for our party and that his treatment of our electoral process has undermined our democratic process would find it extremely difficult to tolerate an indictment of a former president,” he said. “There would have to be just incredible grounds of knowing violations that created serious national security problems. I just don’t suspect that’s the case.”

Gregg conceded that “no one knows” outside Trump’s inner orbit, the Justice Department and intelligence agencies just what kind of damage Trump may have caused to national security by keeping classified documents at his estate but warned “indicting a former president is a complete breakdown, in my opinion, of the structure of our government which is built on some level of tolerance of political activity.”  

Gregg said Garland should expect a fight over funding for his department if he indicts Trump and Republicans win control of one or both chambers of Congress.  

“You would have a constitutional issue of immense proportions because the Congress would, I assume, assert its right to discipline the administration or the attorney general through the purse and maybe in other ways,” he said. “We don’t need that as a country.”  

A Senate Republican aide said GOP lawmakers are closely following the moves of the Justice Department, and that an indictment could strengthen Trump politically. “Everyone rallied around him again” after the Mar-a-Lago raid, the aide noted.  

Democrats say Garland will face calls for his resignation if federal prosecutors decide to not prosecute Trump for holding sensitive classified documents at his estate at Mar-a-Lago, which they view as a clear violation of the law and a straightforward case to argue in court.  

“If he ultimately determines to not bring charges against Trump, somebody will call for him to step down,” said Ray Zaccaro, a Democratic strategist and former Senate aide.  

Zaccaro argued that Trump’s possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago broke the law and that the crime happened after he left office. He also noted that while no former U.S. president has been indicted on criminal charges, it has happened in other countries.  

Democratic members of the House Select Jan. 6 committee vented frustration earlier this year over the Department of Justice being slow to pursue contempt charges with members of Trump’s inner circle who refused to cooperate with the panel.  

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) bluntly called on Garland in March to “Do Your Job” after the Justice Department was slow in supporting the subpoenas of the Jan. 6 Committee.  

The backlash will be more intense after Election Day if Garland doesn’t act to enforce the law prohibiting the private possession of highly classified documents, such as a document describing Iran’s missile program, which the FBI seized at Mar-a-Lago.  

Republicans and Democrats who expect the Justice Department to indict Trump believe it will bring charges against the former president for holding classified national security-related documents at Mar-a-Lago, instead of trying to prosecute him for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Any prosecution of Trump related to Jan. 6 would be complicated by the fact that the Senate already tried and acquitted Trump on similar charges during his impeachment trial last year.  

Republican and Democratic aides acknowledge that any prosecution of Trump will plunge the Department of Justice into a political firestorm and make it more difficult for the Biden administration to work with Republicans, who are likely to control the House if not both chambers of Congress next year.  

“If the Department of Justice does it, it will be a maelstrom. They’re obviously well aware of that but have to balance it with their duty to uphold and administer the law. It’s pretty clear that Merrick Garland is not relishing this,” said a Senate Democratic aide who requested anonymity to discuss Trump’s possible indictment, a sensitive topic on Capitol Hill.  

The aide said it’s clear that Trump violated the law but cautioned that doesn’t necessarily mean Garland will bring an indictment.  

If the attorney general fails to act, “there are going to be some Democrats who are going to complain vociferously,” the source said, but acknowledged “there are a lot of Democrats who recognize that Garland’s got no good options here” because he will come under strong criticism no matter what he decides to do.  

“Whatever happens on Tuesday will inform his decision but not make it easier,” the aide said, making reference to Election Day, which will be a referendum on Biden but also Trump, whom Democrats have tried to tie to Senate and House GOP candidates.   

Emily Brooks contributed to this report. 

The Daily Kos Elections hour-by-hour guide to election night 2022

Posted on (Updated by Jeff Singer

Election night is almost here—Tuesday!—and we have a lot of exciting races in store across the country for Senate, governor, and House. There are also several contests for attorney general and secretary of state in swing states that could play a big role in future years in determining how elections are overseen and certified.

What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's key elections. At the top of this post is our map showing poll closing times across the country. All times are Eastern, though we also have versions of this map for each of the other U.S. time zones.

You can also find the 2020 presidential results for the nation’s new congressional districts here, as well as the results for the lines that were used in the 2020 elections. (Note that many incumbents are running in districts with different numbers than the ones they represent now.) For interactive maps of the new districts, check out Dave's Redistricting App.

We'll be liveblogging all of these races and more after the first polls close at 6 PM ET on election night, so please join us at Daily Kos Elections for our complete coverage.

6 PM ET

Indiana (Eastern Time Zone), and Kentucky (Eastern Time Zone)

The first hour of election night will be pretty quiet. Indiana Sen. Todd Young and his fellow Republican, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, are both secure, and there are no competitive House races in the eastern parts of either state.

7 PM ET

Florida (Eastern Time Zone), Indiana (rest of state), Kentucky (rest of state), Georgia, New Hampshire (most towns), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

• Florida: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has massively outraised his Democratic rival, former Rep. Charlie Crist, and it will be a true surprise if he struggles in a state that has been moving to the right in recent years. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, faces considerably better-funded opposition from Democratic Rep. Val Demings, but polls show the incumbent in good shape.

There aren’t many competitive House races because DeSantis successfully pressured the GOP legislature to aggressively gerrymander the map to create 20 districts that Donald Trump would have won versus just eight that Joe Biden would have carried: Under the old map, Trump would have won just 15 seats to Biden’s 12 (Florida gained a district thanks to reapportionment).

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the House GOP’s main super PAC, has been spending heavily in the 27th District to help freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar fend off state Sen. Annette Taddeo in a Miami-area constituency that Trump would have narrowly carried. However, House Majority PAC (HMP) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which have enjoyed access to considerably less money than their GOP rival, have not been airing ads here or in any other Florida contests.

The newly created 15th District in the Tampa and northeastern suburbs is also worth watching at just 51-48 Trump, but there hasn’t been any serious outside spending on either side. The contest pits former Republican Secretary of State Laurel Lee against Democrat Alan Cohn, a former local TV anchor who was Team Blue’s 2020 nominee, against now-Rep. Scott Franklin (who is running in the 18th).

The St. Petersburg-based 13th District, where Crist resigned over the summer to focus on his statewide bid, has also looked like a likely GOP pickup for 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna ever since the new map transformed it from a seat Biden would have taken 51-47 to one that Trump would have carried 53-46. Former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, though, has benefited from heavy spending from a PAC funded by his cousin, and a recent independent poll showed a very tight race.

Finally, we have an incumbent vs. incumbent battle in North Florida’s 2nd district between Republican Neal Dunn and Democrat Al Lawson. This new constituency is tough turf for Lawson at 55-44 Trump, and Dunn currently represents about twice as many residents here. And again, thanks to gerrymandering, the 7th in the Orlando area looks like an automatic flip for the GOP. The GOP is also well positioned to take the new 4th around Jacksonville.

• Indiana: The 1st District in the northwestern corner of the state has been safely Democratic turf for generations, but while Biden would have prevailed 53-45 here, the area’s gradual shift to the right during the Trump era gives Republicans a big opening against freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. The incumbent is trying to fend off Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green, who would be the first African American to represent Indiana in Congress, in a battle that has attracted huge spending from outside groups on both sides.

• Georgia: The biggest battle in the Peach State is the contest between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who flipped this seat in a famous 2021 special election, and former football star Herschel Walker. Georgia requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in order to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff, and Libertarian Chase Oliver’s presence on the ballot means this tight race could well go to a second round once again.

The race for governor is a rematch from the close 2018 election between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. However, most surveys show Kemp in strong shape this time around and positioned to win outright despite the candidacy of Libertarian Shane Hazel.

The only seriously contested House race in the state is the 2nd District in southwestern Georgia, a 55-44 Biden constituency where Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is trying to turn back Air Force veteran Chris West. However, while Republicans have spent months talking about taking down the 30-year incumbent, major GOP groups have stayed on the sidelines while Democrats have spent millions against West. There are no other candidates in the running, so this race will not be going to a runoff barring an exact tie. Republicans, meanwhile, should have no trouble flipping the 6th District in the Atlanta area thanks to their new gerrymander.

Two Republican incumbents who survived Trump-driven primary challenges, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr, are also seeking new four-year terms. Polls show them leading their respective Democratic opponents, state Rep. Bee Nguyen and state Sen. Jen Jordan, though they disagree on how far ahead the two Republicans are. A Libertarian is also competing in each contest.

• New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is trying to fend off retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, a Republican who has ardently embraced the Big Lie, in a state that often swings wildly between the two parties, but no one agrees just how competitive this contest really is. Most polls show a tight race, but Bolduc’s would-be backers at the Senate Leadership Fund dramatically pulled out of the state weeks before Election Day in an apparent vote of no confidence. Other right-wing groups, though, have gotten involved since then, while Hassan’s allies at Senate Majority PAC never stopped treating this as competitive.

The 1st District in the eastern half of the state has long been one of the swingiest House seats in America, and this year’s expensive matchup pits Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas against Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump White House staffer who has eagerly embraced the Big Lie. The bluer 2nd in western and northern New Hampshire has been much quieter, though HMP took action in the final week of the campaign to aid Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster against her underfunded GOP foe, former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns.

• Virginia: Two Democrats elected in the 2018 blue wave, 2nd District Rep. Elaine Luria and 7th District Rep. Abigail Spanberger, are engaged in competitive fights to hang on in a tough political climate. Luria, whose suburban Hampton Roads seat narrowly favored Biden, has emphasized the Jan. 6 attack in her contest against state Sen. Jen Kiggans, a Republican who voted for a $70 million “forensic audit” of the 2020 results.

Spanberger, meanwhile, is defending a dramatically redrawn seat that saw Biden’s margin of victory swell from 50-49 to 53-46 after a court-drawn map swapped out the Richmond suburbs for more Democratic areas near Washington, D.C. Spanberger’s opponent is Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, who made news for saying of pregnancies that result from rape, “[I]t's not something that's happening organically.”

Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, by contrast, is in stronger shape in the 10th District in Northern Virginia, but she still faces a well-funded challenge from Navy veteran Hung Cao. Cao released an internal poll in October showing him narrowly trailing Wexton in this 58-40 Biden seat, but that didn’t convince major GOP groups to get involved on his behalf.

7:30 PM ET

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

• North Carolina: The main draw in the Tarheel State is the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr between far-right Rep. Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as chief justice of the state Supreme Court. Most polls show a small lead for Budd in a state where Republicans have won several tight elections over the last decade.

The most expensive House race in the state, meanwhile, is the battle for the open GOP-held 13th District in the Raleigh suburbs, another seat Biden would have narrowly taken. The GOP is all in for Bo Hines, a former college football player who has weak ties to the area, while Democrats are pulling for state Sen. Wiley Nickel.

There’s also a fight for the open, Democratic-held 1st District in inland northeastern North Carolina, but Republican primary voters jeopardized their chances by ignoring the multiple abuse allegations that have been leveled against 2020 nominee Sandy Smith and nominating her again. CLF, which tried to stop Smith from winning the primary, has bypassed this race along with the NRCC, but Democrats have continued to spend millions to support state Sen. Don Davis.

• Ohio: The GOP has unexpectedly had to spend massive amounts of money to hold onto the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rob Portman, but Democrats still have a tough task in a longtime swing state that's moved hard to the right during the Trump era. The GOP nominee is venture capitalist J.D. Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author who has run a truly weak campaign, while Democrats are fielding Rep. Tim Ryan. Most polls show Vance with a small lead, but his allies are continuing to deploy money here instead of in less Trumpy states.

Team Blue is also hoping to unseat veteran Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in the Cincinnati based 1st District, which transformed from a 51-48 Trump seat to one that Biden would have won 53-45. The Democrats have nominated Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman in another very pricey House race.

Republicans, for their part, believed they’d have a strong shot at denying Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur a 21st term after they turned her reliably blue 9th District around Toledo into a 51-48 Trump constituency, but that was before they nominated QAnon ally J.R. Majewski. National Republicans abandoned Majewski in September after the AP reported that he'd lied about serving in Afghanistan, but Kaptur’s allies have continued to spend like he’s a threat.

Finally, there’s a spendy race in the open Democratic-held 13th, a 51-48 Biden seat in the Akron and Canton areas, between Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes and Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who served as a Women for Trump co-chair. Republicans have spent heavily to link Sykes, who is Black, to crime by citing her support for a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill that never became law.

8 PM ET

Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (rest of state), Illinois, Kansas (Central Time Zone), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (Eastern Time Zone), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (rest of state), New Jersey, North Dakota (Central Time Zone), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (Central Time Zone), Tennessee, Texas (Central Time Zone), Washington, D.C.

• Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont won a tight 2018 race against Republican Bob Stefanowski, but most polls show Lamont well-positioned in this year’s rematch between the two wealthy candidates. Surveys also show Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal similarly situated against Leora Levy, who is Trump’s former ambassador to Chile.

The big contest in the Nutmeg State is in the 5th District in northwestern Connecticut, where Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes faces a tough fight against former state Sen. George Logan. Biden would have won 55-44 here, but both parties have dropped millions on this race since Labor Day.

• Illinois: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his allies worked hard during the June primary to influence Republicans to nominate far-right state Sen. Darren Bailey instead of a candidate with a more appealing profile, and independent polls show the incumbent well ahead in this blue state. Still, conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein has continued to pump money into an uphill effort to beat the governor.

Democratic legislators, meanwhile, drew up a congressional map under which Biden would have carried 14 of the 17 seats, compared to 12 of the 18 existing districts (Illinois lost a seat after the 2020 census), but Team Blue still has several tough fights.

The most competitive race in the state is arguably the battle to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos in the 17th District, a north-central Illinois seat that shifted from 50-48 Trump to 53-45 Biden. Both sides have spent heavily in the contest between 2020 Republican nominee Esther Joy King, who came close to beating Bustos last time, and former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen, who would be the state’s first gay member of Congress.

Former Biden administration official Nikki Budzinski appears to be in better shape further to the south in the open 13th District, a GOP-held seat that dramatically transformed from 51-47 Trump to 54-43 Biden. Republican Regan Deering, whose family ran the agribusiness giant Archer-Daniels-Midland for more than 40 years, stepped up after Rep. Rodney Davis decided to wage an unsuccessful primary bid against far-right colleague Mary Miller in the 15th District rather than defend this unfavorable turf, but major GOP outside groups have sat on the sidelines. The DCCC also cut its planned spending a month ago in an optimistic sign for Budzinski, but HMP has continued to run ads here.

A trio of Democratic incumbents in the Chicago suburbs, though, are looking vulnerable in the final days of the race. Both HMP and CLF rushed in with ads in the final week in the 6th District, where Rep. Sean Casten faces Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau. The far-right Club for Growth, meanwhile, has spent over $1 million on a late attempt to help former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf take down 11th District Rep. Bill Foster. HMP, finally, began airing ads late in the race to aid 14th District Rep. Lauren Underwood against Kendall County Board Chair Scott Gryder. The most competitive of these seats is the 6th, which still went for Biden 55-44.

• Kansas: Laura Kelly, who is the only Democratic governor running for re-election this year in a Trump state, faces a difficult battle against Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Complicating things for Schmidt, though, is the independent candidacy of ultra-conservative state Sen. Dennis Pyle. There have been very few polls here, though the DGA and RGA both spent here until the very end.

The contest for the 3rd District in the Kansas City suburbs, meanwhile, is a rematch between Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and former state GOP chair Amanda Adkins. Davids won their 2020 bout 54-44 as Biden was winning the seat by that same margin, but Republican legislators overrode Kelly’s veto and gerrymandered this seat into one Biden would have taken only 51-47. Limited polling has still had Davids ahead.

• Maine: Democratic Gov. Janet Mills faces a high-profile challenge from her far-right predecessor, Paul LePage. While there have been few surveys released here, the ones we’ve seen have shown Mills with a decided advantage.

Over in northern Maine’s 2nd District, which Trump would have taken 52-46, Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is waging an expensive fight against the man he unseated in 2018, Republican Bruce Poliquin. The Pine Tree State uses instant runoff voting for congressional (but not state) elections, and independent Tiffany Bond’s presence on the ballot could keep either Golden or Poliquin from securing an outright majority. Officials say they’ll do any ranked choice tabulations the week after the election.

• Maryland: Author and former nonprofit head Wes Moore should have no trouble beating far-right Del. Dan Cox in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Larry Hogan in heavily Democratic Maryland, a win that would make Moore only the third African American elected to lead any state.

There’s more drama in the rematch between 6th District Democratic Rep. David Trone, who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, and Republican state Del. Neil Parrott. Trone beat Parrott 59-39 last cycle as Biden was carrying the old version of the seat by a similar 61-38 spread, but the redrawn incarnation would have favored Biden only 54-44. However, no major outside groups have waded into the race for this district, which includes western Maryland and part of the D.C. area.

• Massachusetts: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker’s decision not to seek a third term immediately made Massachusetts one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the country, and polls show Attorney General Maura Healey easily beating her Trumpist foe, former GOP state Rep. Geoff Diehl. Healey would be the first lesbian elected governor anywhere. None of the state's House races appear competitive.

• Michigan: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and her allies have massively outspent her hard-right opponent, former conservative talk show host Tudor Dixon, who never quite locked down full-fledged financial backing from her wealthiest benefactors, the DeVos family. Polls have shown Dixon coming closer as Election Day nears, but most surveys still have Whitmer with the advantage in this swing state.

Both parties are also seriously contesting a trio of House races in a state where an independent redistricting commission drew the lines after decades of GOP gerrymanders. The most dramatic change came about in the 3rd District in the Grand Rapids area, which transformed from a 51-47 Trump constituency to one Biden would have carried 53-45. Democrats also got a bigger opening when former Trump administration official John Gibbs (with an assist from the DCCC) denied renomination to freshman Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. The Democrats are once again fielding Hillary Scholten, an attorney who lost a competitive 2020 battle against Meijer.

Over in the revamped 7th District in Lansing, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to fend off hardline state Sen. Tom Barrett in one of the most expensive House races in the nation for a seat that Biden very narrowly took. There’s another major battle next door in the new 8th around Flint and the Tri-Cities areas, where Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is defending a 50-48 Biden constituency. Kildee’s foe is Paul Junge, another Trump alum who lost to Slotkin in 2020 for the old 8th District―a seat that doesn’t overlap at all with this new district.

Two-time Republican Senate nominee John James, though, is in a strong position to flip the 10th in the Detroit suburbs, which is open because Democratic Rep. Andy Levin unsuccessfully ran against fellow incumbent Haley Stevens in the primary for the safer 11th District instead of running here. James narrowly lost this seat in 2020 against Democratic Sen. Gary Peters as Trump was barely winning it, but major Democratic groups haven’t spent money to help former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga. 

Finally, two statewide Democratic incumbents are trying to fend off a team of election deniers. Attorney General Dana Nessel is going up against Matthew DePerno, while Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faces Kristina Karamo.

• New Jersey: Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski has a tough task ahead of him in his 7th District rematch against former state Senate Republican leader Tom Kean Jr., the son and namesake of a popular governor from the 1980s. Malinowski only turned back Kean 51-49 in 2020 even as Biden was prevailing 54-44, and the new congressional map slashed Biden’s margin in this North Jersey seat down to 51-47.

Three of Malinowski’s Democratic colleagues got much more favorable seats following redistricting, though a few could still be vulnerable in a sufficiently rough year for Team Blue. Rep. Andy Kim is competing against wealthy yacht manufacturer Bob Healey in South Jersey’s new 3rd District, which transformed from one of the closest seats in the nation into one that would have favored Biden 56-42. National groups have largely bypassed this seat, though a super PAC funded by Healey’s mother has spent millions.

Two North Jersey Democrats, 5th District Rep. Josh Gottheimer and 11th District Rep. Mikie Sherrill, are also favored in seats that Biden would have decisively carried. House Majority PAC and its allies at VoteVets recently began spending against their respective GOP foes, Frank Pallotta and Paul DeGroot, though Politico reported that this involvement came about because former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg wanted to "steer[] money" to both races after making large donations to HMP.

• Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt had long looked secure in one of the reddest states in the nation, but he’s been on the receiving end of heavy spending by groups that want him gone. In a shocker, several polls have shown Stitt locked in a close race against state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, who left the GOP last year to challenge him as a Democrat. Stitt’s allies at the RGA are leaving nothing to chance as they got involved late with ads tying Hofmeister to unpopular national Democrats.

• Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is home to one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation as Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and former TV personality Mehmet Oz face off to succeed Oz’s fellow Republican, retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. The contest to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is more one-sided, as far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano has run an underfunded and utterly disorganized campaign against Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

Meanwhile, two House Democrats, 7th District Rep. Susan Wild and 8th District Rep. Matt Cartwright, are competing in closely watched rematches against the Republicans they beat in 2020. Last time, Wild turned back Lisa Scheller 52-48 as Biden was winning her seat 52-47, but the new version of this Lehigh Valley district would have favored the president just 50-49. Cartwright also held off Jim Bognet 52-48 as Trump was prevailing 52-47. Redistricting made the new version of this Scranton/Wilkes-Barre seat a little bluer, but it still would have backed Trump 51-48.

Both parties are also heavily engaged to the west in the open 17th District, which Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb gave up to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. Democrats are fielding Iraq War veteran Chris DeIuzio while the GOP is running former Ross Town Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer in a suburban Pittsburgh constituency Biden would have taken 52-47.

Democratic state Rep. Summer Lee is more secure in the open 12th District around the city of Pittsburgh, but the contest for this 59-39 Biden seat attracted attention over the last month. Lee and the DCCC have run ads making it clear that her Republican foe, Plum Borough Councilman Mike Doyle, is not retiring Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle. The hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, which opposed Lee in the primary, also rushed in late with a $1 million general election campaign to sink her.

• Rhode Island: Democrat Dan McKee was elevated from the lieutenant governor’s office to the top job last year when Gov. Gina Raimondo joined the Biden cabinet, and he remains the party’s standard-bearer following his tight win in the September primary. McKee’s opponent in this blue state is self-funding Republican Ashley Kalus, who has badly trailed in the few polls we’ve seen.

Things look far closer in the open 2nd District in the western part of the state, where both parties are spending millions in a constituency Biden would have taken 56-42. The Republicans landed a high-profile recruit in former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who lost competitive races to Raimondo in 2014 and 2018, for the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin. State Treasurer Seth Magaziner ended his own primary campaign against McKee to run here, but several fall polls show Fung tied or ahead.

• Tennessee: Longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper decided to retire after Republican mapmakers cracked the city of Nashville to transform his 5th District from a 60-37 Biden seat into one Trump would have carried 55-43. Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell is hoping for an upset against Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, but both national parties are spending their money elsewhere.

• Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored to claim a third term against Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman who came close to unseating Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 before embarking on a failed presidential run.

Republicans, who gerrymandered the congressional map to safeguard suburban districts that had been moving to the left, are also looking to score a trio of victories in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that lurched hard towards Trump in 2020.

Team Red’s top target is the 15th District around McAllen, a 51-48 Trump constituency that became open when Democratic Rep. Vicente González decided to run in the more favorable 34th after fellow Democrat Filemon Vela announced his retirement. The GOP is fielding 2020 nominee Monica de la Cruz, who came unexpectedly close to beating González, while the Democratic candidate is businesswoman Michelle Vallejo. González isn’t the only Democrat pessimistic here, though, as neither the DCCC nor HMP have answered the millions that the GOP has spent here.

The 28th District in Laredo pits Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Democrat who survived a tight primary challenge in May, against former Ted Cruz aide Cassy Garcia. The race for this 53-46 Biden constituency has attracted heavy spending from both sides, and Republicans have been only too happy to highlight a still-unexplained January FBI raid on Cuellar's home and campaign headquarters.

Finally, the 34th around Brownsville hosts an incumbent vs. incumbent match between González and Mayra Flores, a Republican who won a June special election for the old version of this seat after Vela decided to hasten his planned departure from Congress by resigning early. Flores represents three times as many residents of the new district as González, but this 57-42 Biden constituency is considerably bluer than the version Flores flipped months ago. Outside groups are spending millions for their respective incumbents.

8:30 PM ET

• Arkansas: Republicans secured their hold on all four of the state’s House seats by splitting up Little Rock's Black community across multiple districts, and the GOP should have no trouble holding all its statewide offices. That includes the open governorship, which former Trump aide Sarah Huckabee Sanders is poised to win.

9 PM ET

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (rest of state), Louisiana, Michigan (rest of state), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (rest of state), South Dakota (rest of state), Texas (rest of state), Wisconsin, Wyoming

• Arizona: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is going up against Blake Masters, a protege of conservative mega donor Peter Thiel, in his quest for a full six-year term. Prominent Republican super PACs axed millions in planned spending in September as surveys showed Masters in bad shape, but other organizations have filled in the void as Master’s prospects have improved.

Republicans have also nominated ardent election deniers for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state, which are the three offices involved in certifying results in the Grand Canyon State. The battle to succeed termed-out Gov. Doug Ducey is a duel between his fellow Republican, former local TV anchor Kari Lake, and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and most recent surveys give Lake a small edge.

The race to replace Hobbs, meanwhile, pits GOP state Rep. Mark Finchem against Democrat Adrian Fontes, who narrowly lost re-election in 2020 as Maricopa County recorder. Finally, the contest to succeed termed-out Attorney General Mark Brnovich pits yet another Big Lie advocate, Republican prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh, against former Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes.

Three House members also face competitive races after the Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission overhauled their districts. The most vulnerable is moderate Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran, who is trying to fend off Navy SEAL veteran Eli Crane in the sprawling 2nd District in the northeastern part of the state. While O'Halleran looked like a goner after he wound up in a seat that would have backed Trump 53-45, both parties’ decision to spend here in the final weeks indicates that he still has a chance.

Another late-breaking race is in the 1st District in the Phoenix suburbs, which narrowly voted for Biden. Republican Rep. David Schweikert spent most of the cycle as the decisive favorite against Democrat Jevin Hodge, who would be Arizona’s first Black member of Congress. HMP, though, rushed in with an ad campaign in the final weeks hitting the congressman over the ethics violations that overshadowed Schweikert in 2020, and his allies at CLF have responded with ads of their own.

Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton is also defending the 4th District, another Phoenix area seat that supported Biden 54-44, against restaurant owner Kelly Cooper. CLF, though, unsuccessfully tried to stop Cooper from getting nominated, and it never responded to Democratic spending highlighting his ties to extremists.

The situation is the reverse in the Tucson-based 6th District, where Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick isn’t seeking re-election in a seat that would have voted for Biden by the narrowest of margins. CLF got the nominee it wanted, former Ducey aide Juan Ciscomani, while Democratic groups have triaged former state Sen. Kirsten Engel.

• Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet faces a strong challenge from Republican self-funder Joe O'Dea, but most recent polls show the incumbent establishing a firm lead in what’s become a Democratic-friendly state. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis is in even better shape against University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, who is the GOP’s only statewide elected official.

Things are more dicey in the 8th District, a brand-new seat in the northern Denver suburbs created thanks to reapportionment that would have backed Biden 51-46. Both parties have devoted millions to the battle between Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo and Republican state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, but even a mid-October Caraveo internal showed her narrowly trailing. National Democrats have also spent some money to support state Sen. Brittany Pettersen in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter in the neighboring 7th, but this is much friendlier turf at 56-42 Biden.

• Iowa: Seven-term Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley faces the most competitive re-election fight of his career, but retired Navy Adm. Mike Franken is still the underdog in what’s become a very tough state for Democrats. A mid-October poll from Iowa’s most prominent pollster, Ann Selzer, showed Grassley only narrowly ahead, but both parties have continued to direct their resources elsewhere. (Selzer’s survey released Saturday showed Grassley ahead by a wider 53-41.)

The most prominent House race in the state pits 3rd District Rep. Cindy Axne, who is the only Democrat in the Hawkeye State’s delegation, against Republican state Sen. Zach Nunn for a southwestern Iowa seat that Trump very narrowly won. Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson also face credible challenges from their respective Democratic foes, state Rep. Christina Bohannan and state Sen. Liz Mathis. However, all the major outside spending in both races has been on the GOP side.

• Louisiana: There’s no question that Republicans, who passed a new gerrymander over Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ veto, will keep their firm hold over 5 of the state’s 6 congressional delegations, but GOP Rep. Clay Higgins does face a credible intra-party foe in the all-party primary for the 3rd District.

Attorney Holden Hoggatt is arguing that Higgins has done a poor job securing federal aid for his hurricane-ravaged constituents in the southwestern corner of the state, and he’s also highlighting allegations that Higgins threatened his first wife with a gun. The congressman, who has been a reliable spreader of conspiracy theories, has Trump’s backing, while Hoggatt has some prominent former local politicians from both parties in his corner. Six other candidates are on the ballot, and a Dec. 10 runoff would take place if no one earns a majority.

• Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is going up against Republican Scott Jensen, a former state senator who has circulated a litany of COVID conspiracy theories. Most polls have shown the far-better funded Walz ahead, though this is another race where reliable numbers are scarce, and Republicans showed up with a burst of very late outside spending.

The 2nd District in the Twin Cities suburbs, meanwhile, is an expensive second bout between Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and Marine veteran Tyler Kistner. Craig won 48-46 as Biden was carrying her seat by a 7-point margin, and court-supervised redistricting barely made any changes here.

The 1st District to the south also is a rematch between Republican Rep. Brad Finstad and the Democrat he beat in an August special election, former Hormel CEO Jeff Ettinger. Finstad turned back Ettinger just 51-47 in a constituency Trump took 54-44, but both parties are behaving like Finstad is on track for an easy win.

Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon is also trying to fend off election denier Kim Crockett in a contest that national Democrats are heavily involved in as Republicans have largely sat on the sidelines. Each side, though, is spending big in the race between Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison and Jim Schultz, who is the rare Republican attorney general candidate who acknowledges Biden won in 2020.

• Nebraska: The biggest race in the state is the contest for the 2nd District in the Omaha area, which would have supported Biden 52-46. Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who claimed victory two years ago in a similar constituency, this time is going up against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who would be Nebraska’s first Latino member.

The neighboring 1st District around Lincoln is a return engagement between Republican Rep. Mike Flood and the Democrat he turned back in a June special, state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks. Flood only held on 53-47 in a 54-43 Trump seat, but just like in Minnesota’s 1st, both parties aren't expecting a repeat performance.

• New Mexico: Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is going up against former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, a Republican who held her distant relative, Ben Ray Lujan, to an unexpectedly small 52-46 win in the 2020 Senate race. Recent surveys from reliable firms have given the governor a mid-single-digit lead.

Democratic mapmakers sought to defeat far-right Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by transforming her southern New Mexico constituency from a 55-43 Trump seat to one that Biden would have carried 52-46. That's resulted in a very competitive race with her Democratic opponent, Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez. HMP also launched a small buy in the final week to safeguard Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez in a 54-44 Biden seat in the northern part of the state.

• New York: Democrat Kathy Hochul assumed the governorship last summer after scandal-ridden incumbent Andrew Cuomo resigned, and she faces an unexpectedly tough battle to keep her new job against GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. Almost every reliable poll shows Hochul with the lead in a place where Republicans haven’t prevailed statewide since 2002, though some surveys have things close.

Democrats also are facing some difficult contests for the House in part because New York’s highest court threw out the map Team Blue passed. We’ll begin on Long Island, where each party launched an expensive ad campaign in the final week in the open 4th District. Biden would have won 57-42 here, but Democrats took huge losses in this area in last year’s local elections. They're running former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen to succeed her political ally, retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice, while the GOP nominee is Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito.

HMP has also devoted millions to safeguard the neighboring 3rd, a 54-45 Biden seat that Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi gave up to wage a failed primary bid against Hochul, but the GOP never responded in kind. The contest between DNC member Robert Zimmerman and 2020 GOP nominee George Santos already has made history, though, as the first congressional race between two gay major-party nominees.

The race to succeed Zeldin on eastern Long Island’s 1st District, meanwhile, pits Democratic Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming against longtime local GOP politico Nick LaLota. Biden would have narrowly carried this seat, but outside groups have bypassed it. The 2nd, by contrast, is a rematch between freshman Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino and 2020 opponent Jackie Gordon. However, while their last bout attracted huge amounts of spending, there’s been less energy this time for this 50-49 Trump seat.

Another 2020 rematch is taking place on Staten Island’s 11th District between Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and Max Rose, the moderate Democrat she unseated 53-47. Rose hoped to be running in a much friendlier seat this time, but the new map only reduced Trump’s margin from 55-44 to 53-46. Both contenders are strong fundraisers, but national groups have also skipped this one.

Where they are getting involved, though, is in a trio of constituencies in and around the Hudson Valley north of New York City. Republicans badly want to deny re-election to DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th District, which would have favored Biden 55-44. Democratic groups in turn came in during the final weeks to help Maloney fend off Assemblyman Mike Lawler.

The 18th District next door is being defended by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, who won an August special in the old 19th District in a massive upset. The 18th, at 53-45, is considerably more Democratic than the seat Ryan represents now, but no one thinks re-election is a sure thing against GOP Assemblyman Colin Schmitt.

The open Democratic-held 19th features a battle between Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, the Republican Ryan beat over the summer, and attorney Josh Riley. None of Molinaro’s home county is included in this new 51-47 Biden seat, though his failed campaign and 2018 run against Cuomo make him a familiar name.

There’s another pricey fight over in the Syracuse-based 22nd District, a 53-45 Biden seat where GOP Rep. John Katko is not seeking re-election. National Republicans tried to sink businessman Brandon Williams in the primary, but they’re nonetheless very much in his corner against Navy veteran Francis Conole.

Finally, there’s a late-developing race in Rochester’s 25th District. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle long looked safe in this 59-39 Biden seat against La'Ron Singletary, a former police chief who resigned in 2020 after he tried to conceal video footage of police suffocating a Black man to death after officers placed a hood over his face and held him to the ground, but Democrats launched a small buy in the final days.

• Wisconsin: The Badger State is home to two of the most competitive races in the whole country as Republican Sen. Ron Johnson tries to hold off Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as Democratic Gov. Tony Evers goes up against self-funder Tim Michels. There’s also an important race for attorney general as Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul faces Republican ​​Eric Toney, a Fond du Lac County district attorney who has bragged, “I am prosecuting more election fraud than anyone else in Wisconsin.”

The only House race in the state that’s at all interesting is the 3rd District in southwestern Wisconsin, where longtime Democratic Rep. Ron Kind is retiring. National Democrats, though, have redirected resources from this 51-47 Trump seat, where Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff is trying to hold on against 2020 GOP nominee Derrick Van Orden.

10 PM ET

Idaho (Mountain Time Zone), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (Mountain Time Zone), Utah

• Montana: The 2020 census gave Big Sky Country a second House seat for the first time in three decades, and Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale’s decision to run in the safely red 2nd in western Montana means there’s an open-seat race for the brand-new 1st to the east. The contest for this 52-45 Trump district pits a Rosendale predecessor, Republican Ryan Zinke, against Democratic attorney Monica Tranel, who has emphasized the many scandals that dogged Zinke during his time as Trump’s first secretary of the interior.

• Nevada: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is trying to turn back former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt in one of the top Senate races in the nation. Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, who beat Laxalt in 2018, is involved in a tough battle of his own against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.

Last year, Democrats made the risky decision to make Rep. Dina Titus’ once-safe 1st District competitive in order to help two fellow Democrats also in the Las Vegas area, 3rd District Rep. Susie Lee and 4th District incumbent Steven Horsford. Now all three face serious fights in seats that Biden would have carried from 7 to 9 points.

Titus is going up against Army veteran Mark Robertson in her first competitive general election in a decade, while Lee is slugging it out against attorney April Becker. Horsford’s race against Air Force veteran Sam Peters hasn’t attracted spending from national GOP groups, though super PACs funded by local millionaire Robert Bigelow have dumped millions here.

Team Blue is also spending big in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, where Democrat Cisco Aguilar is hoping to beat Jim Marchant, one of the most prominent election deniers in the country. The race for attorney general pits Democratic incumbent Aaron Ford against another Republican conspiracy theorist, Sigal Chattah.

• Utah: Hard-right Sen. Mike Lee faces an unexpectedly tough battle in this dark-red state from independent Evan McMullin, who took a strong third in Utah as an anti-Trump conservative in the 2016 presidential election. Democrats opted to endorse McMullin, who says he won’t caucus with either party in the Senate, rather than run their own candidate, but he still faces an uphill climb.

11 PM ET

California, Oregon (rest of state), Washington

• California: The Golden State’s independent redistricting commission once again scrambled California’s congressional map, and there are a wealth of high-profile House races here.

We’ll start with three districts in the sprawling Central Valley that Biden took with 55% of the vote but where Democrats often struggle with midterm turnout. Both parties have delivered millions to the battle in the 13th District between Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray and agribusinessman John Duarte. An even more expensive battle is unfolding to the south in the 22nd between Republican Rep. David Valadao, who voted for impeachment and may be the most vulnerable GOP House incumbent in the country, and Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas.

Outside groups, meanwhile, have bypassed the 9th District, where Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is seeking re-election in a seat that’s largely new to him, but he still faces a notable opponent in San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti. There's a fourth district in the area as well that bears eyeing, though this time, at least, no one is acting like Democratic Rep. Jim Costa is in trouble against little known foe Michael Maher in the 21st, which would have favored Biden 59-39. However, Costa came shockingly close to losing in 2014 in another seemingly dry contest.

We’ll venture next to the 47th District in the longtime GOP stronghold of Orange County, where Republicans have made it a top priority to defeat prominent progressive Rep. Katie Porter. Porter, who is one of the top fundraisers in the entire chamber, is defending a constituency that would have backed Biden 55-43, but the GOP is hoping that the suburban voters who revolted against Trump will return to the fold with former county party chair Scott Baugh.

GOP Rep. Michelle Steel faces a well-funded campaign next door in the new 45th from community college trustee Jay Chen, but national Republicans are the only ones dumping money into this 52-46 Biden seat. Another Orange County Republican congresswoman, Young Kim, is going up against physician Asif Mahmood in the new 40th, which Biden would have won just 50-48 and where there’s been considerably less outside spending.

Over in the 49th north of San Diego, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin faces a tough rematch against San Juan Capistrano Councilman Brian Maryott in a seat that barely changed in redistricting. Levin turned back Maryott 53-47 as Biden was prevailing 55-43, and both parties are treating this as a major priority.

The situation is a bit different in the 27th District north of Los Angeles, where Democrat Christy Smith is trying to avenge her 333-vote defeat to Republican Rep. Mike Garcia. This new constituency, which Biden would have won 55-43, is a couple points to the left of Garcia’s old seat, but Democratic groups haven’t been spending here.

A few other seats are also on the radar. Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley long looked safe in the 26th, a suburban L.A. constituency where Biden scored 59%, but her allies at EMILY’s List came in late to help her against Republican Matt Jacobs.

On the other side, veteran Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, who has represented a safely red seat for a decade, now faces a spirited challenge from former federal prosecutor Will Rollins in the 41st in Riverside County, but neither party has prioritized this 50-49 Trump seat. Democratic physician Kermit Jones has also attracted attention in his bid against Republican Assemblyman Kevin Kiley in the sprawling 3rd District in northern California, but this 50-48 Trump constituency may be too much of a lift this year.

Finally, there are a few safely blue seats that saw a pair of Democrats advance out of June's top-two primary. Up in the Bay Area, Assemblyman Kevin Mullin has endorsements from both retiring Rep. Jackie Speier and Speaker Nancy Pelosi against San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa. Back down in L.A., Rep. Jimmy Gomez is trying to avoid a repeat of his unexpectedly close 53-47 win against 2020 rival David Kim. Finally in the neighboring 37th, state Sen. Sydney Kamlager has the backing of incumbent Karen Bass, who is running for mayor, against former City Councilwoman Jan Perry.

• Oregon: Democrats have held the governorship since 1987, but the GOP is hoping that frustration with termed-out Democratic Gov. Kate Brown will propel former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan to victory over Democrat Tina Kotek, the former speaker who would join Healey as America’s first lesbian governor. Further complicating things is the independent candidacy of former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a longtime conservative Democrat who appears to be harming Kotek more than Drazan.

Democrats also face tough battles in a trio of House seats that Biden carried. The biggest source of concern is in the 5th District in central Oregon, where former city manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner toppled conservative Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary and is now up against former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Biden would have won 53-44 here, but Team Blue has redirected resources away from this contest as the GOP has continued to throw in money.

Over in the 4th along the state’s southern coast, Democratic Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle is campaigning against 2020 Republican nominee Alek Skarlatos. Skarlatos held retiring Rep. Peter DeFazio to a 52-46 win last time, but Democratic mapmakers extended Biden’s margin from 51-47 all the way to 55-42. Finally in the 6th, a brand-new seat Salem created by reapportionment that would have also backed Biden 55-42, there’s another closely watched fight between Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas and businessman Mike Erickson.

• Washington: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray faces an unexpectedly tough contest against Republican Tiffany Smiley in this blue state, though even surveys from GOP pollsters still largely give the incumbent the edge. The biggest national groups on both sides, though, have not been involved.

Further down the ticket, Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is locked in a costly battle against Republican Matt Larkin in the 8th District, a suburban Seattle constituency Biden would have won 52-45. National Democrats also have made a late offensive in 3rd to support Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against far-right Republican Joe Kent, who toppled incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary; Trump would have won this southwestern Washington seat 51-47.

12 AM ET

Alaska (Alaska Time Zone), Hawaii

• Alaska: The Last Frontier will conduct its general elections through instant-runoff voting, though these tabulations won’t take place until Nov. 23.

The Senate battle is a closely-watched intra-GOP showdown between incumbent Lisa Murkowski, who has the support of the Senate leadership, and Trump’s candidate, former state cabinet official Kelly Tshibaka. Major GOP super PACs have spent heavily to help Murkowski, though her detractors are hoping enough conservatives will follow Trump’s lead in a state he took 53-43. Democrat Pat Chesbro and Buzz Kelley, a Republican who dropped out and endorsed Tshibaka in September, are also on the ballot.

The race for governor pits hardline Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy against both his independent predecessor, Bill Walker, and former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara. Another Republican, former Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce, is also in, but his campaign was barely a factor even before harassment allegations against him became public. Both Walker and Gara have urged their supporters to rank the other one second in order to beat Dunleavy.

Finally, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is trying to keep the House seat she won in an August special election against Sarah Palin. Both Palin and another Republican, Nick Begich III, are competing again, along with Libertarian Chris Bye, but Murkowski and several other notable Republicans are supporting Peltola. GOP outside groups have also bypassed this contest despite Alaska's decided red lean.

1 AM ET

Alaska (rest of state)

Scalise prepares to shift from whip to McCarthy’s hand-in-glove No. 2

Posted on by By Olivia Beavers

THE SKIES ABOVE UTICA, N.Y. – Steve Scalise spent years in the role of Kevin McCarthy’s qualified understudy, perceived as ready to step in if he stumbled. All that has changed as Republicans draw closer to retaking the House.

It’s been more than four years since the gregarious 57-year-old openly discussed his interest in becoming speaker, propelling speculation of a McCarthy rivalry that didn’t stop when he made clear he had no designs to challenge the Californian for the role. Lately, though, Scalise strikes all the right notes as he stays in lockstep with his No. 1.

Scalise made clear he's happy right where he is during a recent interview in between multistate campaign swings, answering questions about the GOP's agenda with hopes that he would be “fortunate enough to be majority leader.”

And as go-go as Scalise has been on the trail for Republicans, he remains second to McCarthy there too: Since October began, Scalise has visited 17 different states stumping for 42 members. Over the same period, McCarthy has traveled in support of 170 GOP candidates and incumbents — including to 9 states alone last week.

"I just have a lot of trust" in Scalise, McCarthy told POLITICO, lauding the Louisianan for his work on energy policy as well as the conference's "Commitment to America" framework before calling them "a really strong team" and observing that "the struggles we've been through have made us stronger."

That burying of old tensions may soon come in handy. Almost as soon as Republicans complete a likely House takeover next week, the duo is set to face withering pressure from divided wings of their conference to pursue impeachments of Biden administration officials — and potentially the president himself.

“I think that Scalise and McCarthy get along a lot better than what the media tries to portray,” said Kentucky Rep. James Comer, the top Oversight Committee Republican who will serve as one of party leadership’s two point men on bombarding Biden’s team with investigative work.

“We're all heading into January getting along really well and knowing that there are a lot of different ideologies in our conference, a lot of different levels of conservatism,” Comer added. “But at the end of the day, I think we're very united in trying to fix the problems, all the crises that Joe Biden created.”

Of course, showing unity before you take a congressional majority is a lot easier than maintaining it while in power. As much as House Republicans agree in principle on serving as an aggressive check on what's been a fully Democratic-controlled government, the question of how far to go will mutually challenge McCarthy and Scalise — who are currently uncontested favorites for the speakership and majority leader post, respectively.

Scalise may find that the hardest part of his job is working with McCarthy to assuage conservatives' push for revenge against a Democratic Party that the GOP's right flank despises after years of what it saw as unfair Trump impeachments. McCarthy has tried to keep impeachment conversations at arm's length, remarking in recent interviews that he doesn’t want it to be used for political reasons.

But McCarthy's answers also left the door cracked for his conference to move ahead on impeachments. Some of his pro-Trump members are already making their pressure for it plain.

“This will happen. Not for political reasons. But because it must be done. Any GOP Member growing weak on this will sorely disappoint our country,” freshman Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) tweeted earlier this week, linking to a story about the expected GOP push for impeaching Biden.

Scalise, who previously served in the Louisiana state legislature for more than a decade, says he’s had plenty of helpful practice bringing factions together to build consensus. After all, his current job as minority whip often requires him to nudge members to take tough votes.

“I love getting to know my colleagues as the whip, because you really do get to work with everybody. And you understand all the different factions and what makes people tick,” Scalise said aboard a charter plane last week as he raced from campaign event to campaign event.

“I recognize that not everybody thinks the same way in our party," he added, "but most people want to get to the same place."

That isn’t to say all the competition between the House GOP's No. 1 and No. 2 has dissipated.

Heading into a new Congress that will start with a shuffling of leadership positions, there are still potential mini-proxy battles at play as McCarthy looks to fill his leadership team with loyal allies, while Scalise looks to bring in his. And despite the softer tone between Scalise and McCarthy, the former has signaled his informal support to raise chief deputy whip Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) to majority-whip status.

McCarthy has sent a counter-signal: The majority whip shouldn't be Ferguson, but one of the other two candidates, Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) or Jim Banks (R-Ind.).

Even that shadow-boxing for their favorites, however, is a far cry from the more conspicuous rivalry that once existed between Scalise and McCarthy. Many of their members say privately that a dynamic once plagued by suspicion, subtle alliances between divided teams and behind-the-scenes jockeying now seems behind them.

"On anything, there's going to be struggles and differences of opinion," McCarthy said. "The great thing about our relationship: we respect each other's differences of opinion. And I actually seek them out."

That shift began in earnest in 2018, when McCarthy took over for Paul Ryan and entered the minority with Scalise as his No. 2. Their goodwill solidified thanks to their shared exhaustive recruiting, fundraising and campaigning work down the stretch toward a shared goal: not just flipping the House, but shaping the contours of the GOP's incoming class as well to be ambitious and governable at the same time.

McCarthy transferred $52 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee and state parties throughout the 2022 cycle to date and $18.5 million to individual candidates and members; Scalise has raised $53.4 million in total this cycle, transferring about $25.1 million to the House GOP campaign arm and $3.4 million to individual members and candidates.

The two top leaders also focused their fundraising on so-called reach seats in the final days of the election, according to multiple people familiar with their plans — a sign of confidence in the outcome Tuesday night.

Scalise, who came to Congress in 2008, has an open-secret talent that could help calm GOP conference nerves going forward. A known foodie, he's often built relationships by breaking bread with colleagues.

Over the past four years, deputy whip Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) observed, I haven’t seen Scalise “lose too many whip votes.”

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