Month: June 2022
Trump Candidates Face Off Against Two GOP Incumbents In Tomorrow’s Primary
The latest test of Trump’s leverage in the Republican Party comes on Tuesday, as he has backed the challengers of two Republican incumbents, one who voted for impeachment, and one who attacked him over the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.
Trump is backing State Rep. Russell Fry who is running against Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC), and former State Rep. Katie Arrington, who is challenging Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC).
Anybody have a list because i'm voting in the primary Tuesday in SC and i will vote them out… https://t.co/dlMPbxwsqU
— Stephanie Newman (@Dakotar) June 9, 2022
RELATED: Sarah Palin Leads Crowded Field In Race For Alaska’s Sole Seat In U.S. House
Trump vs GOP
Tom Rice is one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. His decision to do so was was a curious one, as his district voted for Trump by a 19-point margin in 2020.
Rice defended his impeachment vote, claiming “Defending the Constitution is a bedrock of the Republican platform, defend the Constitution, and that’s what I did. That was the conservative vote.”
In response, at a rally in South Carolina, Trump ripped Rice, saying, “And now Tom Rice looks like a total fool.”
Russell Fry is portraying Rice as a “traitor” to the district.
In Tuesday’s other race, freshman Rep. Nancy Mace predicted she will beat the Trump-backed Arrington by double digits.
Arrington ran previously in the district and defeated former Governor Mark Sanford in the primary but lost in the general election.
Mace drew Trump’s ire for voting to hold former Trump advisor Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress for ignoring a subpoena from the Democrats’ January 6 committee.
Perhaps realizing that she made a powerful enemy, Mace would later travel to New York City, seemingly for the sole purpose of standing outside of Trump Tower and pretending she was a big Trump supporter.
Watch:
I’m standing in front of Trump Tower with a message this morning…#SC01 #LowcountryFirst pic.twitter.com/CpmMYA63qt
— Nancy Mace (@NancyMace) February 10, 2022
What has Tom Rice received for his impeachment vote? An ad from his opponent comparing him to classic villains like the Joker and the Devil.
And while some Republicans who, immediately following the Capitol riot were critical of Trump and later softened their stance, Rice definitely has not.
“He watched it (Jan. 6) happen. He reveled in it. And he took no action to stop it. I think he had a duty to try to stop it, and he failed in that duty. He’s the past. I hope he doesn’t run again. And I think if he does run again, he hurts the Republican Party. We desperately need somebody who’s going to bring people together. And he is not that guy.”
Tom Rice, one of the 10 House Republicans to vote on impeaching Trump, trails in the Republican primary for South Carolina’s 7th district by 17 points.
— ULTRA MAGA
(@Trump2094578522) June 5, 2022
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Despite overwhelming evidence of guilt, the DOJ has a tough decision around prosecuting Trump
As many of us watched the first public congressional hearings from the Jan. 6 committee investigating the insurrection last Thursday, we saw the seven members carefully lay out how they intended to prove former President Donald Trump’s guilt in attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential elections. And even though they will continue to reveal more evidence in the coming days, the question that looms is whether or not Attorney General Merrick Garland’s Justice Department has the guts to actually prosecute Trump.
Garland gave a speech at Harvard University’s commencement ceremony last month, where mentioned he would “follow the facts whether they lead.” And as NBC News reports, Lisa Monaco, Garland’s deputy attorney general, told CNN, “Federal prosecutors are reviewing fake Electoral College certifications that declared former President Donald Trump the winner of states that he lost… We've received those referrals. Our prosecutors are looking at those, and I can't say anything more on ongoing investigations.”
But following leads and taking notes during the House select committee hearings is one thing—prosecuting a U.S. president is a whole other beast.
RELATED STORY: In case you missed it: Here’s how Liz Cheney skewered her GOP colleagues in Jan. 6 committee hearing
Barbara McQuade, an NBC legal analyst and former U.S. attorney warned that filing criminal charges against Trump in his attempt to subvert the elections “will very likely spark civil unrest, and maybe even civil war.” However, “not charging [Trump] is even worse because not charging means you failed to hold someone criminally accountable who tried to subvert our democracy,” she explained.
Indicting Trump would be a first in U.S. history. The only case even remotely close was that of former President Richard Nixon, who resigned from office in 1974 before his expected fate of impeachment for his role in Watergate. Former President Gerald Ford later pardoned Nixon prior to the possible filing of criminal charges.
The other issue Garland is likely facing is the ethics of whether or not prosecuting Trump is in the best interest of the nation—an issue that essentially pits the two parties against each other.
“I don’t think we want to be the kind of country where this happens often,” McQuade told NBC News.
Joyce Vance, a former U.S. attorney and NBC News legal analyst said, “Prosecuting Trump destabilizes the country more than it puts it upright.”
Committee members have been clear from the start that all of the accusations against Trump will be backed up with evidence and testimony from the players involved—some who’ve come forward voluntarily and others who’ve been subpoenaed.
Rep. Adam Schiff has said that he’s expecting the DOJ to “investigate any credible allegation of criminal activity on the part of Donald Trump,” the Associated Press reports,
Schiff added:
“Once the evidence is accumulated by the Justice Department, it needs to make a decision about whether it can prove to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt the president’s guilt or anyone else’s. … But they need to be investigated if there’s credible evidence, which I think there is.”
According to CNN, Rep. Jamie Raskin has said he will not “browbeat” Garland, but the committee has clearly highlighted the many crimes Trump has committed.
“I think that he knows, his staff knows, the U.S. attorneys know, what’s at stake here. … They know the importance of it, but I think they are rightfully paying close attention to precedent in history as well, as the facts of this case.
“So we have laid out in different legal pleadings the criminal statutes that we think have been violated. And Judge Carter in California said he thought it was likely that President Trump committed federal offenses.”
Republicans introduce articles of impeachment against Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner
The Return of the 25th Amendment Debate

Morning Digest: Investment in GOP primary for Illinois governor pays dividends … for Democrats
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot!
Leading Off
● IL-Gov: Democrats looking to prevent Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin from winning the June 28 GOP primary got some very welcome news Friday when the Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ released a survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling finding far-right state Sen. Darren Bailey ahead 32-17, with another 11% going to venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan. The poll came shortly after a conservative PAC called People Who Play by the Rules PAC, which has been attacking Irvin, publicized its own numbers from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates giving Bailey a smaller 27-20 edge over the mayor.
Irvin in late May had unveiled his own numbers showing himself ahead 31-25, but he didn't have anything to offer Friday when reporters asked him about his underwhelming showing from PPP. Instead, the one-time frontrunner said there were "two and a half weeks left" before primary day and that "that's a lifetime in politics." Those comments came a day after Irvin's campaign confirmed they had cut planned advertising in southern Illinois, which led observers to wonder if the mayor was running out of the $50 million he'd received from billionaire Ken Griffin.
But Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker's allies at the DGA are still pouring it on with another ad designed to make Bailey, who among other things once pushed a hopeless bill to kick Chicago out of Illinois, more appealing to GOP voters. Just like the group's previous spots, the narrator asks, "Are pro-Trump conservative Darren Bailey's policies too conservative for Illinois?" The spot goes on to remind viewers that Bailey "sued to stop J. B. Pritzker's Covid mandates" before showing footage of the state senator using a firearm.
election recaps
● AK-AL: Almost 110,000 votes have been counted in Saturday’s special top-four primary for the final months of the late GOP Rep. Don Young’s term, and while the Associated Press has not yet called any of the four spots in the Aug. 16 instant runoff general election, three contenders have established clear leads over the other 45 candidates. Two Republicans, former reality TV show star Sarah Palin and businessman Nick Begich III, are taking 30% and 19%, respectively; independent Al Gross, who was the 2020 Democratic Senate nominee, is in third with 12%.
The battle for the fourth and final spot is tight, with former Democratic state Rep. Mary Peltola holding a 7-5 edge over a third Republican, former state Interior Department official Tara Sweeney; not far behind with 4% is North Pole City Council member Santa Claus, a self-described "independent, progressive, democratic socialist" who previously had his name changed from Thomas O'Connor.
It’s not clear how many votes are left since mail-in ballots received though June 21 will be tabulated as long as they were postmarked by Saturday, though election authorities say that a total of 139,000 votes have been received thus far. The state, writes the Alaska Beacon, plans to count more ballots on Wednesday, Friday, and June 21, with certification to follow four days later.
Redistricting
● LA Redistricting: A panel of judges on the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday issued a short-term "administrative stay" for a lower court ruling that struck down Louisiana's GOP-drawn congressional map for racial discrimination, but the stay was lifted Sunday. Arguments over the case are set to take place in early July, though, so this is far from the final word on the future of the maps. Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards has reiterated that a special redistricting session will begin Wednesday.
● NY Redistricting: A state appellate court has struck down New York's Democratic-drawn Assembly map on the grounds that the legislature lacked the authority to draw its own map after the state's bipartisan commission failed to pass anything of its own. However, the ruling won't take effect until after this year's elections, since the court ruled that the Republican plaintiffs had waited too late into the election cycle to bring their lawsuit, meaning the upcoming June 28 primary will proceed using the Democratic-drawn districts and the courts will oversee the redrawing of the map for the 2024 elections.
Senate
● GA-Sen: The progressive group VoteVets has launched a TV commercial as part of a $1.5 million ad buy that accuses Republican Herschel Walker of using his supposed charity to prey upon veterans to his own financial benefit of $331,000 last year alone, noting that prosecutors charged the charity with defrauding the federal government. As the Associated Press has reported, Walker served as a celebrity spokesperson for Patriot Support, which is actually a for-profit program marketed to veterans by the large hospital chain Universal Health Services.
A civil lawsuit against Universal by the Justice Department and a number of state governments alleged that the company aggressively pushed veterans into inpatient mental health care facilities, often via misdiagnosis and fraudulent documents, to take advantage of how government-sponsored insurance plans don't limit the duration of psychiatric hospital stays under certain conditions, unlike private insurance plans. Universal ultimately reached a $122 million settlement with the federal government and various states in 2020 but denied any wrongdoing.
● NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The nonpartisan Nevada Independent has once more released a survey from the GOP firm OH Predictive Insights of Tuesday's Republican primaries, and it finds the Trump-backed Senate and gubernatorial frontrunners, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, maintaining double-digit leads in their respective contests.
In the contest to take on Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, Laxalt posts a 48-34 edge over Sam Brown, an Army veteran who has run a surprisingly well-funded campaign. One month before, the firm showed Laxalt up by a similar 45-30 edge, and we haven't seen any reliable polling in the intervening time. The former attorney general's allies at the Club for Growth and its School Freedom Fund affiliate aren't taking any chances, though, as they've continued to spend on advertising in the closing days of the contest.
Meanwhile in the race to go up against Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, Lombardo outpaces attorney Joey Gilbert, a former professional boxer who has bragged that he was "definitely on the Capitol steps" on Jan. 6, 34-21, which puts things a bit closer than Lombardo's 35-15 edge the previous month. Two other Republicans, North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee and former Sen. Dean Heller, tie for third with 10% each, which is about where they each were in May.
NBC reported Wednesday that Lee, a former conservative Democrat who defected to the GOP last year, has actually outspent Lombardo $2 million to $1.2 million on advertising, but that a group called Better Nevada PAC has deployed an additional $2.9 million to help the sheriff. The DGA-affiliated A Stronger Nevada, meanwhile, has poured $2.5 million into ads largely attacking Lombardo as "more worried about his public image than public safety" in an effort to try to derail the frontrunner.
● OH-Sen: The Democratic group Innovation Ohio has publicized an internal from GrowProgress that shows Democrat Tim Ryan leading Republican J.D. Vance 44-41, little different from his 43-41 edge in a late April poll taken just before both men won their primaries. The only other recent general election survey we've seen was a late May Suffolk University poll that put Vance ahead 42-39.
Governors
● MD-Gov: Former Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker announced Friday that he was suspending his campaign, saying that he didn't have the money to win the Democratic nomination on July 19. Baker, who took second in the 2018 primary, said he'd consider restarting his efforts if he received substantially more donations in the next month, but he acknowledged this was very unlikely to happen.
● MI-Gov: Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who was the Republican primary frontrunner before he was disqualified last month for fraudulent voter petition signatures, announced Thursday that he'd wage a write-in campaign to secure the nomination in August. "I got emails, text messages through my campaign that says: 'Chief, we know you were robbed," insisted Craig. "And you know what? I'm not going to roll over. Because this is not about me as a candidate."
Craig made his announcement on the local station Fox 2 along with self-funding businessman Perry Johnson, who is suing in federal court to get back on the ballot himself. However, while Johnson, whose campaign also fell victim to a fraudulent signature scandal, is going to federal court to try to get back on the ballot, he sounded skeptical about running his own write-in effort.
Johnson, while not explicitly ruling out the idea, acknowledged it would be "very, very difficult" for anyone to pull off and estimated the effort would take $22 million. Craig, who had $1.2 million on-hand at the end of 2021, suggested that he and his wealthy former rival "should be partners," but Johnson quickly said he didn't want to be his running mate.
● MN-Gov, MN-AG: The Democratic firm Change Research's new survey for the nonpartisan MinnPost shows Democratic Gov. Tim Walz leading his likely Republican rival, Scott Jensen, just 42-40, but there's an important caveat.
The firm found that 7% of respondents chose, "The candidate from either one of the legalize marijuana parties (Legal Marijuana Now or Grassroots Legalize Cannabis)," but the poll didn't name any candidates by name or even separate the two parties. This is a potential issue because, by presenting the two options this way, Change is not replicating how these choices will actually be presented on the ballot. (Independence-Alliance Party Hugh McTavish, who was indeed asked about by name, snagged an additional 3%.)
The poll also finds Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison locked in a tight race against both of the Republicans competing in the August primary. Attorney Jim Schultz, who won the party convention last month, edges out Ellison 45-44, while the incumbent deadlocks 44-44 in a rematch against 2018 rival Doug Wardlow.
House
● FL-07: Several Orlando-area Democratic elected officials have endorsed state party official Karen Green's campaign to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy in a constituency that the new GOP gerrymander transformed from a 55-44 Biden seat into one Trump would have taken 52-47. One of the pols backing Green, whom we hadn't previously mentioned, is state Rep. Carlos Guillermo, who didn't quite rule out a bid of his own right after Murphy retired. Florida's filing deadline is June 17, so the field will be set very soon.
● FL-23: Airline pilot Curtis Calabrese has filed paperwork with the FEC terminating his campaign for the Democratic nomination for this open seat. Calabrese only switched his party registration from Republican to Democratic in March even though state law requires candidates be registered with their party at least a year before the start of candidate filing, so he likely would have faced serious legal opposition had he continued on.
● GA-10: There haven't been many negative ads in the leadup to the June 21 GOP primary runoff, but former state Rep. Vernon Jones is going up with one that portrays his opponent, trucking executive Mike Collins, as a little boy who can only explain his rationale for running with, "My daddy was in Congress." After the actor playing "Little Mike" repeats this line, Jones tells the audience, "My daddy wasn't in Congress, but he was a veteran and he fought for this country."
● MT-01: The Associated Press on Thursday evening called the June 7 Republican primary for former Rep. Ryan Zinke, who outpaced former state Sen. Al Olszewski by a surprisingly slim 41-40 margin. But despite his name recognition, support from Trump, and financial advantage, Zinke faced serious scrutiny for reportedly spending more time in his wife's hometown of Santa Barbara, California rather than in Montana, as well as over his myriad of ethics issues from his time as Trump's secretary of the interior.
Zinke will go up against Democratic nominee Monica Tranel, an attorney and former Olympic rower, for a western Montana seat that Trump carried 52-45.
● NY-23: State Republican Party Chair Nick Langworthy said Friday morning that he would indeed run to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Chris Jacobs, a decision Langworthy revealed hours before candidate filing closed.
● NY-23 (special): Republican leaders on Thursday chose Steuben County party chair Joe Sempolinski as their nominee in the Aug. 23 special election for the final months of former GOP Rep. Tom Reed's term. Sempolinski, who is not seeking a full term in Congress this year, will go up against Democrat Max Della Pia in a constituency Trump took 55-43.
● TN-05: The Tennessee Supreme Court on Friday unanimously ruled that music video producer Robby Starbuck would stay off the August Republican primary ballot for this open seat, a move that reverses a lower-court decision that briefly resurrected his campaign.
Starbuck, who was booted by the state GOP failing to meet its opaque "bona fide" standard, responded by tweeting Sunday, "I have 3 days to decide if I’ll run write in for the primary or general (I have to pick 1). Problem is, if I win the primary, TNGOP can ignore it and pick the person who came in 2nd." He added that he'd told party leaders, "If they agree to honor the results of the primary election and support the winner, even if it’s a write-in, then I’ll run in the primary as a write-in and not in the general. The ball is in their court now."
Secretaries of State
● NV-SoS: The GOP firm OH Predictive Insights surveys Tuesday's Republican primary for secretary of state for the nonpartisan Nevada Independent and finds a 21-21 deadlock between former Assemblyman Jim Marchant and developer Jesse Haw. Marchant, a QAnon ally who has said he would not have certified Joe Biden's 2020 victory, has attracted attention by grouping with other conspiracist candidates running to become their state's chief election official. Haw, though, has himself winked at the Big Lie by saying that last election "had a lot of shenanigans and potential fraud."
The eventual nominee will go up against former state Athletic Commission member Cisco Aguilar, who faces no Democratic primary opposition in the race to succeed termed-out Republican incumbent Barbara Cegavske.
CNN.com – RSS Channel – Politics 1970-01-01 00:00:00
Senators strike bipartisan gun safety agreement
A group of 20 senators struck a bipartisan gun safety framework on Sunday, marking a significant breakthrough in Congress' attempts to address recent back-to-back mass shootings.
In a Sunday morning statement, 10 senators in each party announced support for the deal. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer blessed it, vowing to “put this bill on the floor as soon as possible,” and President Joe Biden said it “would be the most significant gun safety legislation to pass Congress in decades.” The president urged both chambers of Congress to finish the package quickly.
The emerging package is anchored around extra scrutiny for gun buyers under the age of 21, grants to states to implement so-called red flag laws and new spending on mental health treatment and school security. While translating the agreement into legislation will take time, the large group of supportive senators shows that the package could gain 60 votes on the Senate floor before heading to the House.
“Our plan saves lives while also protecting the constitutional rights of law-abiding Americans. We look forward to earning broad, bipartisan support and passing our commonsense proposal into law,” the 20 senators said in their statement.
Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) are the lead negotiators on the proposal. The most significant piece of the proposal would subject gun buyers 21 and younger to scrutiny of their criminal and mental health records as juveniles. It's proved tricky to write because each state has different laws governing juvenile records.
A broader bipartisan group has held its own regular meetings on guns over the past three weeks since the elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. And with Democrats controlling only 50 Senate seats, the approval of 10 Republicans is critical to moving forward.
In addition to the core four negotiators, the legislation is backed by Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Angus King (I-Maine), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). Portman, Toomey, Blunt and Burr are all retiring at the end of the year.
“Families are scared, and it is our duty to come together and get something done that will help restore their sense of safety and security in their communities,” the 20 senators said.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell released a statement welcoming the announcement as proof of "the value of dialogue and cooperation," though he sidestepped a direct endorsement of the framework: "I continue to hope their discussions yield a bipartisan product that makes significant headway on key issues like mental health and school safety, respects the Second Amendment, earns broad support in the Senate, and makes a difference for our country.”
In addition to provisions on red flag laws, which allow law enforcement to seek temporary removal of firearms from an individual who is a threat to himself or others, the package also would close what's known as the "boyfriend loophole" by broadening firearms restrictions on those who have abused their romantic partners.
The package also aims to crack down on straw purchasers and illegal unlicensed firearms dealers, according to a summary of the agreement.
The emerging framework comes nearly three weeks after 19 children and two teachers died in the Uvalde shooting. The killings in Texas occurred roughly a week after a racist mass shooter killed 10 people at a supermarket in Buffalo, N.Y. March for Our Lives, a gun safety group founded after the 2018 school shooting in Parkland, Fla., held nationwide demonstrations on Saturday urging Congress to address gun violence.
“Each day that passes, more children are killed in this country: the sooner it comes to my desk, the sooner I can sign it, and the sooner we can use these measures to save lives,” Biden said Sunday.
While Sunday’s announcement is a major breakthrough, translating a framework into an actual bill often proves challenging. During last year’s bipartisan infrastructure negotiations, for example, more than six weeks passed between negotiators' announcement of a framework and Senate passage of the resulting bill. And a GOP aide involved in the negotiations stressed that Sunday's agreement was an "agreement on principles, not legislative text."
"The details will be critical for Republicans, particularly the firearms-related provisions," the aide warned. "One or more of these principles could be dropped if text is not agreed to."
While the nascent framework is modest compared to Democrats’ long-running push for expanded background checks, it could result in a high-water mark for GOP support for any level of gun restrictions. And at the moment, it's the closest the chamber’s been to a broader gun safety deal since 2013, when Manchin and Toomey wrote bipartisan legislation in response to the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School.
“After an unrelenting wave of gun-related suicides and homicides, including mass shootings, the Senate is poised to act on commonsense reforms to protect Americans where they live, where they shop, and where they learn. We must move swiftly to advance this legislation because if a single life can be saved it is worth the effort,” Schumer said in his statement on Sunday.
Most Republicans and a handful of Democrats blocked the Manchin-Toomey legislation. And while the Senate tried again in 2019 to reach a deal after mass shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio, then-President Donald Trump disengaged amid the House impeachment inquiry. The most significant recent new gun law came from Murphy and Cornyn, which strengthened the background check system.
This time around, Democrats would have preferred to expand background checks to more prospective gun buyers and ban assault rifles, though those moves lack the necessary support among Republicans. A handful of Republicans are supportive of raising the age to purchase assault rifles to 21, something McConnell has expressed personal openness to, but neither McConnell nor Cornyn have pushed that as part of the package, and the idea may not get the 60 votes needed to survive a GOP filibuster.
Given those challenging dynamics, Senate Democratic leaders are willing to take a more modest deal than the sweeping restrictions most in Biden's party support.
Any legislation on the Senate floor may be subject to amendments, provided the bipartisan group can complete legislative text and lock in the 60 votes needed to start debate. After two more weeks in session, Congress is currently scheduled to take a two-week break on June 24.
The Downballot: Jumbo June primary preview, with Jeff Singer (transcript)
June is a jumbo primary month, so we've once again brought Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer on this week's edition of The Downballot to preview all of the major races. There's the perennial loser (but one-time winner!) Danny Tarkanian's quest to oust a sitting GOP congressman in rural Nevada; Republican Rep. Mo Brooks' attempt to come back from the dead in the Alabama Senate runoff; two very different member-vs.-member House primaries in Illinois; and a whole heck of a lot more.
Of course, there were also primaries this week, so naturally co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recapped the biggies: two Republican congressmen in Mississippi who were forced into runoffs, a high-profile former Trump cabinet official who might lose a comeback bid, and a crushing defeat for a South Dakota ballot measure designed to make it harder for progressives to pass other ballot measures.
Please subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.
This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.
David Beard:
Hello and welcome. I'm David Beard, contributing editor for Daily Kos Elections.
David Nir:
And I'm David Nir, political director of Daily Kos. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. You can email us thedownballot@dailykos.com or find us on Twitter at @dkelections.
David Beard:
And please subscribe to The Downballot wherever you listen to podcasts and leave us a five-star rating and review, if you don't mind. But let's go ahead and jump into today's episode. What are we going to be covering?
David Nir:
It is primary season. June is a huge month for primaries. We had races in seven states on Tuesday night, so we are going to be recapping some of the most notable outcomes, including some true shockers on the Gulf Coast. And then we will be joined by Daily Kos Elections editor, Jeff Singer, to give us a preview on all of the many, many interesting races, including a whole bunch of crazy Republican primaries that we have on the docket for the rest of the month. Please stay with us. This is going to be a packed episode.
David Beard:
Great, let's get started.
David Nir:
We had a ton of primaries in seven different states on Tuesday night, including a few shocking results out of a state that often doesn't get a ton of attention on the national scene, and that was Mississippi. Beard, what the heck happened?
David Beard:
Well, Mississippi, as you said, is not a state that you think about a lot in general election, so most of its action is in primaries. But there wasn't really an expectation that there was going to be a ton of news out of Mississippi from Tuesday night, but in two different congressional primaries, a Republican incumbent was pushed into a runoff election, that's going to take place three weeks later, by challengers.
And so we'll start in Mississippi's 3rd district where incumbent representative Michael Guest was expected to just breeze through his primary but was forced into a runoff, didn't even take first place. He's sitting at 47% of the vote to his opponents, 47.5% of the vote. And his opponent is Navy veteran Michael Cassidy.
Now, Cassidy has attacked Guest for voting for a Jan. 6 commission, which of course, in this deep red Republican district, is just a terrible thing to have done according to the electorate. And Guest really has admitted that he ran a bit of a complacent campaign. He didn't think that this was going to be a serious campaign that he had to really go after Cassidy. And so we'll see if that changes in the intervening three weeks, if Guest is able to ramp up a really aggressive campaign, go after Cassidy and turn this around. Obviously it was very close. There was a third candidate that took a small portion of the vote, which is why we're going to a runoff, so there's every chance that Guest can turn this around, but you also wouldn't be surprised to see Cassidy keep his lead into the runoff and take Guest down.
David Nir:
One possible wrinkle that might wind up being to Guest's advantage is that, in runoffs in Mississippi in the past, we have seen the more establishment types or the more pragmatic types of Republicans who get pushed into these runoffs try to woo voters, in particular Black voters because they make up almost all of the Democrats in Mississippi, who don't otherwise have an election to worry about. And we saw this in particular with former Senator Thad Cochran in 2014. In fact, Cochran very narrowly trailed his challenger in 2014, Chris McDaniel, and then came back from the dead to win the runoff three weeks later, so we'll see if the incumbent here winds up trying a similar tactic.
David Beard:
Yeah, I really think that race is going to be an absolute tossup until that runoff happens. That may not be the case in the other district, in Mississippi's 4th district where incumbent Steven Palazzo only took 32% in his primary against two challengers, which is why he gets to go to a runoff and didn't just lose outright if there had just been a single challenger, which very well may have happened.
He's facing Jackson County sheriff Mike Ezell, who got 25% of the vote and who's also been endorsed already by the third-place candidate, Clay Wagner, who ended up with 22% of the vote narrowly behind Ezell. Palazzo has been known as an absentee Congressman ever since he was elected, and the most iconic issue of this was when he abruptly canceled a campaign forum. And his staff told folks that it was for meetings dealing with national security. He's a Congressman, these things happen. You have an important national security meeting; you have to go to it. The only issue was a few hours later, Palazzo posted a picture on Facebook of himself and his son at a restaurant in Mississippi, which doesn't really seem like the kind of important national security meeting you would normally cancel meetings with constituents for, but to each their own.
Now, Ezell's gone after Palazzo's absenteeism aggressively. He held an entire "I'll show up" tour of the district, and so what we've really seen here is a really a more classic challenge to an incumbent in a primary—not about MAGA, not about some sort of specific ideological issue, but about the basics of being a Congressman, showing up, doing the job. And Palazzo has not been doing that, and he's facing the consequences from people who just want a Congressman to have constituent services, be available, do the basics that they elected him to do.
David Nir:
In a way, this is a bit similar to Madison Cawthorn's loss. Yeah, we all enjoyed the headlines about coke and orgies among the GOP leadership, allegedly, but really, the hardest hitting attacks seemed to be that he just didn't care about his constituents, and that can be almost deadlier than these MAGA type attacks as evidenced by the fact that Palazzo didn't even get a third of the vote, though it's also worth noting he has been the subject of long running ethics investigation.
It's the sort of ethics investigation that you see most frequently, which is using campaign funds for personal purposes. The kind of guy who blows off constituents to go have dinner with his kid and then stupidly post a picture on Facebook seems like the kind of guy who probably is also misusing campaign funds. Anyway, after getting 32% in the first round, it seems like it would be shocking for him to somehow survive in the runoff, so Steven Palazzo may just be a dead man walking here.
David Beard:
And I really think you're right comparing him to Cawthorn because even in the Republican electorate, as much as they praise this extremism, this MAGA extremism that is increasingly terrifying, honestly, there is still a desire for just the basic competencies of being a Congressman that in some ways they care more about, so Palazzo has clearly failed at that and will probably soon be a former Congressman.
David Nir:
We're going to head across the country for what is a surprising result in Montana's first congressional district. Let me preface this by saying this is the first time in decades that Montana has had two congressional districts, so this is their brand new map, and the first district is an open seat in the western part of the state. It's the far less Trumpy of the two districts. It would've only gone for Donald Trump by about a 52-45 margin. And Trump backed one of his former cabinet secretaries, Ryan Zinke, who also represented the entire state in the House before he joined Trump's cabinet in 2017.
Zinke seemed like he had every reason to just walk over this race. He, like I said, already represented the entire state, so shouldn't be too much of a stretch to win a primary for half of it. Trump's backing. He was a prominent cabinet Secretary, albeit for many of the wrong reasons, but right now he is only leading former state Sen. Al Olszewski by a 41 to 40 margin, maybe around 1,000 votes. Now, most of the votes have been counted, but I don't think anyone really expected the race to be this close.
Now, Zinke gained a lot of notoriety in Trump's cabinet for many, many ethics investigations. In fact, it's not even clear just how many he was the target of. There's a Washington Post article that says it was 15, the ethics watchdog CREW says it was 18, but I'm going to guess that what probably really did him in is the constant reporting that he didn't actually seem to be spending that much time in Montana. Politico had a big piece a while back indicating that Zinke actually spends most of his time in Santa Barbara, California, which is little bit outside the district, and not just geographically, but also culturally. Zinke's wife, it's her hometown, and apparently was spending a lot of time there. She has a yacht there. Also not really kind of a Montana thing.
And that sort of disconnect from your home state, from your home district is another one of those much more traditional things that really can alienate voters from a candidate. We saw this sort of thing happen, for instance, with former Indiana Senator Dick Lugar in 2012 who got crushed in a primary as a result. And this really does relate to the sort of Palazzo and Cawthorn neglect of their districts. Of course, Zinke's not the incumbent now, he's trying to regain his incumbency, and he may well. This district, Democrats are hoping to compete here. Monica Tranel easily won her party's primary on Tuesday night, and someone with Zinke's flaws could create an opening despite the lean of this district, so it will be interesting to see what happens here next.
David Beard:
And we've seen, even in tough years for a party, individual races can break when there is an issue with a candidate, and the other party has a strong candidate, that can overcome a bad year. So it's certainly a race to keep an eye on to see if something like that develops going forward.
Another really interesting race that took place on Tuesday was in South Dakota where the legislature put a constitutional amendment on the ballot to basically try and sabotage a future initiative that's going to take place in November. The amendment known as Amendment C, that was voted on, on Tuesday, would've required a supermajority for any future ballot initiative that would require 10 million dollars of expenditures over five years or more. And that's seen as a target for the Medicaid amendment that's going to be on the ballot in November because that would've applied to that amendment and would've increased the percentage that the vote would need to pass from 50% to 60%.
The state legislature put it on the ballot here in June to try to make it so that would be more difficult to pass. But voters in South Dakota defeated it by a very wide margin, 67% to 33%. And we've seen even in a lot of states where Republican legislatures have gone after these direct democracy provisions, as Progressives have used them to pass things like minimum-wage increases or Medicaid expansion, voters still strongly support them when given a chance to say do you want to keep these direct democracy provisions as they are. Voters are often very supportive of them.
So it was really great news that the amendments failed. Medicaid will still be voted on in November and will just need a 50% majority to pass. One notable group that supported the amendment was the Koch Brothers Americans for Prosperity. They framed it as an anti-tax measure to make it more difficult to pass expenditures, but they've been fighting against Medicaid expansion in a number of states, so almost certainly this was being pushed due to the Medicaid expansion coming up. So that's definitely something we'll keep an eye in November as that vote takes place.
David Nir:
And lastly, we have to mention the biggest state of them all, California, which held its unusual top two primaries on Tuesday night. And we're going to hold off on discussing these races because there are many, many votes left to be counted and therefore many races that haven't been called. California recently transitioned to becoming an all vote-by-mail state. And as long as ballots are postmarked by primary day, they are still valid if they are received by election officials up to a week later. So it's going to be a bit of time before we know the final results in California, but there is an almost even bigger caveat that we want to caution every election observer about.
And that is because of the partisan breakdown in preferences for voting methods and timing, we are now seeing batches of votes come in that differ dramatically from the batch counted before and the batch counted after. And what's happened here is that Republican voters, thanks to Donald Trump's war on mail voting, simply don't want to vote early. They don't want to vote by mail. They don't want to put their ballots in the mail, even in an all-mail voting state like California.
What you can do, you can take your ballot and turn it into voting officials either before the election day or on election day. And the later you turn in your ballot, the later obviously it's going to be counted. So what you have are Democratic-leaning voters voting on the earlier side. These ballots get counted first. Then you have the Trump-leaning voters who turn in their votes on election day.
Those ballots get counted afterwards. We saw this play out on Tuesday night in almost every race on the docket. An hour after the polls closed, the results in most races were much more favorable for Democrats overall than they were the next day, 12 hours after that. And this is something to be mindful of because, for instance, early on in the night, we saw Congresswoman Katie Porter winning 58% of the vote in her primary. Twelve hours later, she was down to 51% of the vote, and California uses top two primaries. All candidates from all parties run together on a single ballot. And the top two vote getters, regardless of party, advance to the November general election. And the top two primary, therefore, can be something of a possible preview of how the vote is going to look in November. Typically, Democrats do better in November than in the primaries where they turn out at lower rates.
But if you are looking at the numbers and you think, "Oh, Katie Porter's at 58%. If she does that well in November, she'll be fine." Well, you have to wait till all the votes are counted because if she's a 51%, then that augurs a much, much closer race. So we will be keeping a very close watch on these ballots. And one further thing to note, historically speaking, it's been common for the latest-counted ballots to actually lean more liberal.
For whatever reason, more liberal voters tend to wait until the last minute to put their ballots in the mail. So it's possible that the remaining votes could actually swing things a bit back towards Democrats in the end, but as more and more votes are counted, it becomes harder and harder for any further batch of ballots to affect the total results.
So please, please keep this in mind as you watch the California results. Wait until the bitter end. I know it's frustrating. I know no one wants to wait, but please wait until we have all the votes tallied before we make any prognostications about what this means for November.
David Beard:
And as you said, the California primary results are one of the really interesting augurs. Obviously it's not a perfect translation from the June ballot to the November ballot, but it's in a really interesting look when you can total up the Democratic vote and the Republican vote in various districts, see how things turned out, see how things might change in November. But as you said, we want to see all of the votes before you start pulling from that to see what that might augur for November.
David Nir:
That wraps up our weekly hits, but please stay with us. After the break, we are going to be joined by Daily Kos Elections editor, Jeff Singer, to preview the many primaries and runoffs coming up in the rest of the month of June. Stay with us.
David Nir:
Well, we just recapped last night's key primaries, but we have many more states on the docket ahead in the month of June. And joining us to preview the key primaries in all of these states is Daily Kos Elections editor, Jeff Singer. Welcome back on the program, Jeff.
Jeff Singer:
Thank you, Nir. It's great to be back.
David Nir:
So starting on Tuesday, we have primaries in another four states: Nevada, South Carolina, North Dakota, and Maine, but we want to start out west. Tell us what's going on with the Nevada Senate race, because this is one of the key seats that Democrats have to defend in November in order to have any shot at preserving their majority.
Jeff Singer:
Correct. Catherine Cortez Masto is the Democratic Senator. She won a close race in 2016. This is going to be another very expensive, probably very close contest. From the beginning, the front runner has looked like Adam Laxalt. He's the former attorney general. He ran for governor in 2018, lost a close race to Democrat Steve Sisolak. Laxalt has Donald Trump's endorsement. He has the endorsement of the Club for Growth, which spends plenty of money for its candidates. He's long looked like the front runner, but there's a bit of a snag.
Army veteran Sam Brown has raised a surprisingly large amount of money, and he's focusing on portraying himself as an outsider while Laxalt is the insider. And Brown has actually tried to out-Big Lie Laxalt. Laxalt in 2020 sued to try to overturn Biden's victory in Nevada. Brown's going after Laxalt, not for doing that, but for not doing it successfully. Brown's faulted him for just not doing a very good job stealing the election. So that's the type of primary we have here. Every poll we've seen still shows Laxalt ahead. It would be a surprise if he lost, but as we just saw in Mississippi, surprises happen.
David Nir:
That's really something that there is absolutely no satisfying the MAGA base, that even suing to overturn a valid election is simply not enough these days. And it really makes you wonder, will they only truly accept an actual stolen election? Is that the only thing that will satisfy them? And the answer is probably yes, but Singer you also mentioned Steve Sisolak, who was the candidate for governor that Laxalt lost to in 2018. And he is up for reelection as well.
Jeff Singer:
Correct. And there's a big Republican primary to take him on. The frontrunner looks like Clark County sheriff Joe Lombardo, who has Trump's endorsement. Lombardo's the top lawman in the county that contains Las Vegas, its suburbs, and really about 70% of the state of Nevada's population. Lombardo has some notable opposition. One familiar name is former Senator Dean Heller who lost a close 2018 reelection campaign to now Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen, who's up in 2024.
Heller's tried to revive his career by winning the governorship, but the polls and the fundraising show he's far behind. Another familiar name is North Las Vegas mayor John Lee, who's a former conservative Democratic state Senator who switched parties just before running for governor. He's also tried to out-MAGA the Trump-backed Lombardo, but we haven't seen many polls. But they've all shown Lombardo's ahead, so this is another one where we have a clear but maybe not secure favorite.
David Nir:
And now there is one House race in Nevada that we have to talk about because it involves one of our all-time favorite candidates. I want to be very clear when I use the word favorite. I mean, favorite losers to make fun of. So please catch us up on what's going on in Nevada's second district.
Jeff Singer:
So Nevada's 2nd district includes Reno, Sparks, Carson City, most of northern Nevada. There are four districts in Nevada. Three of them are based around the Las Vegas area. This is the fourth. This is a heavily Republican area. Republican Congressman Mark Amodei has been safe for a long time, but he faces a notable primary challenge from Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian.
Now, Tarkanian, he's a character. He has run unsuccessfully statewide or in the Vegas area six times, starting from 2004 until 2018. He's come close sometimes, he's lost badly sometimes, but he's kept on trucking. After his 2018 loss in a different congressional district, he decided to take his fortunes up to rural Douglas County, and he won a tight county commission race there. He seems to have decided, "Hey, people in northern Nevada like me. I'm going to go for the big prize." So he's challenging Mark Amodei for renomination.
And we could spend a whole podcast talking about Tarkanian, but the big thing to note is that for a long time, he was sort of a joke in Nevada politics because of how many times he'd ran and how he never won. But that sort of changed in 2020 when he did finally win. But Amodei and his allies are still going after how terrible a candidate he's long been, about how his track record is terrible, how he's an interloper. Tarkanian though is arguing Amodei is too liberal. He's portrayed him as an establishment figure. He went after him for blaming Trump for the January 6th attack, although Amodei didn't vote for impeachment or go beyond that. There's been no reliable polling here. Tarkanian's an outsider, but he has a lot of money. Amodei is getting some real backup from the House leadership. This one could be interesting. And if it's not and Tarkanian loses, well, that's another one for the book.
David Nir:
And if that name, Tarkanian, is familiar to you listeners, that's because Danny Tarkanian is the son of the late legendary UNLV coach, Jerry Tarkanian, who had great success as coach of the Running Rebs, a lot more than his son, who sometimes derisively in the press has been referred to as Little Tark.
Jeff Singer:
Amodei even did an ad where Amodei is wearing a University of Nevada-Reno shirt, which is the rival of UNLV.
David Nir:
That's some great trolling.
David Beard:
So let's take it over to the East Coast and South Carolina, where there are a couple of very competitive Republican primaries at the House level, where two incumbents are being challenged by Trump-backed challengers. So what's going on in South Carolina's first district?
Jeff Singer:
So this is a coastal seat that includes part of the Charleston area. Republican, Nancy Mace, won in a close 2020 general election against Democrat Joe Cunningham, who's running for governor right now. Mace was a Trump loyalist. She was part of his campaign in 2016, when the GOP establishment was still against him. But she made the mistake of criticizing him over the January 6th attacks. She got quiet after that, but that was enough.
And Trump is endorsing a interesting candidate, former state representative, Katie Arrington. She tried successfully to primary a different congressman here, the one and only former governor, Mark Sanford, who, if we talked about him, we'd have to devote an entire other podcast to. But she beat him in 2018 in the primary.
Joe Cunningham comes along, beats Katie Arrington. Mace beats Cunningham two years later. Mace is now arguing, "If you give the nomination to Arrington again, she'll lose this." That may not really be true, because the Republicans gerrymandered the seat to make it so that anyone, including Arrington, couldn't lose it. But it might still be competitive enough at 54 to 45, Trump, that maybe the Democratic nominee, Annie Andrews, she's a well-funded physician, could win. And Mace is counting on that argument. She's arguing, "Nominate Arrington, we're taking a huge risk." Arrington is going all in with Trump, on the other hand.
We've seen one poll from a pro-Mace organization. It showed Mace at 44 to 24, but that's still short of the majority she'd need to avoid a runoff two weeks later.
David Beard:
Now, the other race in South Carolina that we're going to cover involves one of the more surprising congressmen who voted for Donald Trump's impeachment from the Republican side, Tom Rice, who I don't think really anybody expected at the time when the lists were coming out to be one of the few Republicans to actually vote for Trump's impeachment. And of course, that has brought the heavy hand of MAGA world in against him in this race.
David Nir:
Yeah. In fact, I remember when that roll call came out, people wondered if Tom Rice had voted for impeachment by mistake. Sometimes people cast ballots the wrong way. But he quickly confirmed that no, he did in fact mean to impeach Donald Trump.
Jeff Singer:
Yeah, and it's brought him an even bigger world of pain than Mace's criticism has brought her. This is an even more conservative district, so the electability argument really doesn't work.
Rice's main opponent is Trump's guy, state Representative Russell Fry. There's a few other candidates running. Some of them have money. It's unlikely any of them are going to pull ahead of Fry, but it's possible they could keep Rice and Fry from taking the majority they'd need to avoid a runoff on June 28th.
Rice is arguing Fry is not the conservative he appears to be. Fry, though, ran this very weird attention-grabbing ad a little while ago, where he had this room full of villains, including the Joker, a pirate, Dolores Umbridge from Harry Potter, saying, "Well, Tom Rice, what are you doing here with our assembly of villains?" And the actor playing Rice said, "Well, I vote to impeach Trump," and they're all horrified, even Maleficent in that ad. So that's the kind of campaign he's running.
David Beard:
And it's such a strange ad because it aligns voting against Trump's impeachment with the villains. So the idea that the villains are horrified by Trump's impeachment, which is just I don't know which way we're trying to go around here to make this argument. It doesn't make any sense.
David Nir:
Right. Shouldn't the villains be cheering him on because he's one of the bad guys? He's so bad, he's even worse than the villains? It's a total, total mess. And yet, he could very well win.
So that covers South Carolina. The following week, we then head into an election night where four states are on the docket, including three that have runoffs. Virginia has its primaries, but we also have runoffs in Alabama, Georgia, and Arkansas. Alabama is going to be hosting one of the most fun, in a perverse way, and unexpected and weird and rising from the dead, like one of those monsters in that ad, runoffs. Tell us about what's going on with the Senate race.
Jeff Singer:
Yeah, so on May 24th, Alabama had the first round of its Senate race to succeed retiring senator, Richard Shelby. Katie Britt, who's both a former Shelby chief of staff and the one-time head of the local Chamber of Commerce, took 45% of the vote in the Republican primary, a little below the majority she needed, but pretty good for such a crowded race.
The second-place candidate was a surprise. Congressman Mo Brooks. Brooks was Trump's guy, then Brooks started to do badly in the polls, continued to do badly with fundraising. In March, Trump just unendorsed him, something he almost never does. Just left Brooks for dead. But Brooks wasn't dead. He snagged 29% of the vote. Enough for second place, but still well behind Britt's 45%.
So now the question is can Brooks complete his comeback? Can he return completely from the dead and take the Republican Senate nomination, which in Alabama, almost always means you're going to win the November general election.
Brooks, though, needs a lot to go, right? He's tried to get back in Trump's good graces by campaigning, again, heavily on the Big Lie. He's outright calling for Trump to re-endorse him. So far, that hasn't happened, but you never know with Trump. But there's just a lot out of his control.
To begin with, Mike Durant, the army veteran who finished a close third, he initially said he was going to endorse Brooks. Then a few days later, he says, "I'm not going to endorse either of them. I don't like either of them." So that's a big block of votes that Brooks is going to have a harder time winning now.
Also, ominously, Brooks's allies at the Club for Growth, they cut some of their ad spending, which groups normally don't do unless they're feeling very, very good or very, very bad about what's about to happen. And the Club probably isn't being stingy because they feel like Brooks has this. So he's the underdog. He was the underdog before and lived to fight another day, but he really, really needs a miracle here.
David Beard:
Then finally, on June 28th, we have a very big primary day. We've got seven states that are holding some kind of election. We've got Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, Utah, all holding their primaries. We've got New York holding their primary for the races that didn't get delayed due to their court problems. And then we've got runoffs in Mississippi and South Carolina. So let's start with Illinois and the governor's race on the Republican side, where a ton of money has been put in.
Jeff Singer:
There's a crowded Republican field to take on Pritzker. The front-runner looks like Aurora mayor, Richard Irvin, who would be the state's first black governor. Irvin so far has received $50 million in support from Ken Griffin, who is Illinois' richest man. And because the state has almost no campaign finance laws, Griffin can just write him as many checks as he can afford, and it goes straight into Irvin's campaign. No super PACs needed. Just write him a check, Irvin gets the money.
Now, Democrats don't really want to go against Irvin, partially because he has a moderate reputation from his time as mayor, also because he has access to just so much money.
Democrats are trying a little chicanery here. They're trying to help get far right state senator, Darren Bailey, who, among other things, once sponsored a bill to try to throw Chicago out of the state of Illinois. Chicago's still there, so you know how well it went. They're trying to get him nominated. And Bailey does have some support from another big conservative mega donor, Dick Uihlein, but Uihlein's contributions, while normally a lot, pale in comparison to what Griffin's put down.
Now, when I say the Democrats are trying to help Bailey win, they're not outright running ads saying, "Vote for Bailey." What they're trying to do is run ads that say Darren Bailey is too conservative, while Richard Irvin isn't conservative enough. And the idea is that Republicans watching that will say, "Hey, I want the more conservative candidate. Screw you, Democrats."
This is a tried and true tactic that's been around for decades, but in 2012, Missouri Democratic senator, Claire McCaskill, really wrote the book on this when she ran ads saying that the Republican that she really wanted to face, the one and only Todd Akin, was too conservative for Missouri. Voters nominated him a few weeks later, Akin did his legitimate rape comments and his campaign imploded from there. So every Democrat now wants to be like Claire McCaskill, and they want to pick their opponent. It's a tough tactic. It's hard to pull off, but Democrats are really going for it this time.
David Nir:
One of these days I really want to, well, maybe not meet, but maybe I want to read an article interviewing Republican voters who watch these ads from Democratic organizations that pretend to "attack" their candidate as too conservative or too anti-abortion or whatever, and then they decide, oh yeah, that's the guy for me. I really want to know how they feel about being played like that, or whether they even realize what's going on. But, Singer, we've seen some polls in the Illinois governor's primary that suggest that it's possible Democrats plan to boost Bailey is actually going to work.
Jeff Singer:
Yeah, we have. They've shown Irvin ahead, but not buy that much. But at the same time, Irvin has so much money and, unlike a lot of candidates, he has the money to inform voters, hey, Democrats really don't want me to be your nominee. Doesn't that say something?
David Beard:
And of course, whoever wins this, there's probably going to be a ton more money spent on the general election with Pritzker's funds and in either direction here. So look out for a lot of TV ads if you live in Illinois. Now, we've covered a ton of Republican primaries, but we do want to get to a Democratic primary. This one, between two incumbents who got thrown together, thanks to redistricting. What's going on in Illinois's 6th district?
Jeff Singer:
This pits two democratic House members against each other, Marie Newman, who represents about 41% of the population here in what's currently the 3rd congressional district, and Sean Casten, who represents just 23%. You'd think on paper, Newman would be the favorite because of that, but she has some problems. She's facing an ethics charge that she sought to keep a potential primary opponent out of the race in 2020 by offering him a job as her top aid if she won. That's really dogged her.
But she's not giving up. She ran an ad a few weeks ago where she told the audience, "I had an abortion at 19. I wasn't ready to have a family." And then she said, "Sean Casten has supported anti-abortion Republicans, like George Bush." Casten did vote for George H.W. Bush in 1992 when he was 20, but that was a long time ago. Casten hasn't really gone negative against Newman, but some of Casten's allies have. They've highlighted the ethics investigation to argue she shouldn't be their Congresswoman.
David Nir:
And so we have another member versus member primary in a totally different kind of district, and a totally different part of the state, that threw two Republicans together. And I'm talking, of course, about the 15th district, which seems to be another classic intra-GOP battle.
Jeff Singer:
Yep. This is sort of a battle between what used to be the Republican establishment and the new establishment, the Trump wing of the party. In one corner, we have Rodney Davis. He's not a moderate, but he's had to take some moderate votes at times, because his old district was really competitive turf. And he won reelection against some serious Democratic opponents, but that could dog him now.
The other corner is Mary Miller, who is a far-right favorite. Trump's in her corner. The Club for Growth is also for her. Miller is a freshman. In her very first week in office, she said, "Hitler was right on one thing. He said, whoever has the youth has the future." She backed away from those comments, but gives you an idea of what kind of person she is. And this is one where Rodney Davis has most of the money.
He has Kevin McCarthy and the House leadership behind him. He has an endorsement from the Illinois Farm Bureau, which has some weight in rural areas like this. But Miller might just be a better representative of what the Republican party is today.
Unlike in the 6th, this is not a seat where either candidate really has geographic advantage. Miller represents about 31% of the population and Davis is just behind with 28%. So a large plurality of people here don't have either one of them as their representative. And unlike Davis's current district, which has been very competitive turf for a while, this is a super red, rural Illinois district. Whoever wins this incumbent versus incumbent primary is going to win the general election, no question.
David Beard:
And then the last race we want to talk about on June 28th is the Oklahoma Senate primary. Now this is the primary for Jim Inhofe's seat, who is resigning at the end of the year, and so a special election is being held to replace him. So, who all is running in that primary on the Republican side?
Jeff Singer:
So this is a very packed race in a very red state. This is another one where you need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff. That's very unlikely with so many candidates, so voters are probably be back in the polls on August 23rd. Inhofe is pulling for his former chief of staff, Luke Holland, but Holland's never run for office before. He's an unknown. Inhofe has run ads with his super PAC, where the Senator himself has made the pitch for Holland, but those might only be able to do so much.
There's several other candidates here, including some very familiar faces. One that we've all heard of, although maybe have forgotten, is Scott Pruitt, the former Oklahoma Attorney General, and Trump's first head of the EPA, who resigned because of, well, one of the many, many scandals that have engulfed Trump administration officials. But Pruitt wants his comeback. He's running again.
Another big name is Congressman Markwayne Mullin, who represents a very red area in the eastern part of the state. Another candidate to watch is T. W. Shannon. He's a former speaker of the state House. He actually ran in 2014, the last time there was a special election for Oklahoma's other Senate seat. He lost by surprisingly wide margin to now-Senator James Lankford. There's also some other candidates, including state Senator Nathan Dahm, who is getting some support from Rand Paul's super PAC. But this is one where, barring a huge surprise, two candidates are going to face off in August 23rd.
David Nir:
And this was a strange election. Beard, you alluded to this a moment ago, where Inhofe made what is termed a "irrevocable pledge" to resign at the end of the year, but there's no enforcement mechanism. He could conceivably change his mind. That's not going to happen, but it could happen. It's a completely ridiculous situation. In fact, an attorney filed a lawsuit, still underway, challenging this whole system of sort of having preemptive special elections. But given that the race is already underway, it would be a real shock to see it derail, but you never know.
Well, that was just a small sampling of the many, many races on the docket this month. You should definitely subscribe to our newsletter as well, dailykos.com/morningdigest, for coverage of all of these races and many more every Tuesday night. We also liveblog all of the primaries. Jeff Singer, thank you so much for joining us and enlightening us about all of these fascinating races.
Jeff Singer:
Thank you. And as they used to say in Illinois, vote early, vote often.
David Beard:
That's all from us this week. Thanks to Jeff Singer for joining us. The Downballot comes out every Thursday, everywhere you listen to podcasts, and you can reach us by email at thedownballot@dailykos.com. If you haven't already, please like and subscribe to The Downballot, and leave us a five star rating and a review. Thanks to our producer, Cara Zelaya, and editor, Tim Einenkel. We'll be back next week with a new episode.
Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: More on the Jan. 6 hearings
We start today with Jon Allsop of Columbia Journalism Review critiquing both the substance and the spectacle of the first of six meetings of the House Select Committee to Investigate the Jan. 6 Attack on the United States Capitol.
Last night, at 8pm Eastern, the preemptive noise ceased and the hearing began. Bennie Thompson, the committee’s Democratic chair, immediately started to lay out Trump’s culpability for the events of January 6, calling the attack on the Capitol “the culmination of an attempted coup”; then, Liz Cheney, the Republican vice-chair, picked up the thread, introducing videos of pretaped testimony that showed people close to Trump—his former attorney general William Barr; his daughter Ivanka—calling his claims of a stolen election “bullshit,” to borrow Barr’s word. There followed a harrowing montage packaging never-before-seen footage of the insurrection, followed by a break, followed by live testimony from two witnesses: Nick Quested, a British documentarian who was embedded with the extremist group the Proud Boys around the time of the insurrection, and Caroline Edwards, a police officer whom the mob knocked violently to the floor and who later slipped in her colleagues’ blood. The hearing concluded with another video montage, this time showing insurrectionists testifying that they had answered Trump’s call. The whole thing was over in a crisp two hours.[...]
Ahead of the first televised hearings in Trump’s 2019 impeachment, I wrote that pundits weren’t totally wrong to focus on optics given that persuading the public to care was the point at this staging post in a much broader political process; the problem, I wrote, was that many pundits have a sensationalized and shallow definition of what makes for good TV… The committee, I would argue, couldn’t deviate too far from the way congressional hearings typically look and sound; if it had done so, the hearing would not recognizably have been a hearing, and could easily have sacrificed its own gravitas and slipped into genreless confusion.
Within these obligatory boundaries, I found the hearing short, sharp, and innovative. Most of the committee’s members were not given the opportunity to grandstand, making it easier for viewers to focus their attention on the evidence and witnesses. Edwards’s testimony was wrenching in an understated way; if a single moment of the hearing stood out to me, it was watching her calm reaction, across a split screen, as she was shown footage of the mob slamming her to the floor. The committee was smart, too, to segue straight from its montage of unseen riot footage to a break, allowing the networks to cut in with commentary. If I had to compare the hearing to a work of journalism, I’d not pick public radio but a comprehensive magazine article: there were newsy scoops in there, but its much greater value came in laying out truths that we already knew with a searing depth, emotional resonance, and fresh perspective.
John Nichols of The Nation applauds Chairman Bennie Thompson’s use of the word “coup” in describing the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
The message was that the deadly January 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump “was not a spontaneous riot.” It was the product of a conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and to keep Trump in office as an illegitimate pretender to power. And, the chairman of the January 6 Committee explained, “Donald Trump was at the center of that conspiracy. And ultimately, Donald Trump, the president of the United States, spurred a mob of domestic enemies of the Constitution to march down to the Capitol and subvert American democracy,”[...]
This was not a military coup d’état in which the generals of the armed forces employ their weaponry in order to remove the duly elected president or prime minister of a country. This was a self-coup, another form of coup d’état, in which a leader overrules the other branches of government in order to assume illegitimate and illegal power.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, the scholar of fascism and authoritarian leaders who teaches history at New York University, immediately recognized the significance of the committee chair’s statement. “Kudos to Chairman Thompson for calling it a coup,” she said, shortly after Thompson finished his remarks. “Some still call it a riot, which does not capture the larger political design of overturning our democracy.”
Peter Bergen of CNN interviewed British documentary filmmaker Nick Quested about his embedding with the Proud Boys.
BERGEN: So, you reached out to the Proud Boys.
QUESTED: Yeah. We called up the Proud Boys. On November 4, 2020, when President Donald Trump falsely claimed that he won the election before a winner had been declared, we were like, “Oh, here you go.” Because one of the fundamental tenets of America is having a peaceful transfer of power. I called up Enrique Tarrio, the head of the Proud Boys. He liked the film “Restrepo” that war reporter Tim Hetherington, Sebastian [junger], and I made together. And he just said to come down. So we went down to DC on December 11, 2020 and started working.
BERGEN: When a revolution happens, even the revolutionaries sometimes have no idea what is going to happen. To what extent did the Proud Boys know this was going to happen on January 6?
QUESTED: I don’t know. We did definitely look at the Proud Boys and say, “Well, are Proud Boys Jacobins? Are they Brown Shirts? Or are they football hooligans?” Or is it just Trumpism? Because that was a very unifying factor throughout the Proud Boys. There are no RINOs in the Proud Boys. It is the cult of Trump, and they were the muscle.
Marcela Garcia of The Boston Globe explores how anti-blackness among Latinos can lead to them joining white supremacist organizations.
The go-to explanation is the “Hispanics are not a monolith” mantra, which, while accurate, also feels a tad superficial. Sure, my identity and political views as a Mexican American raised in Mexico but living in Boston for the past two decades are likely to be different from a second-generation Mexican American from McAllen, Texas, or a recently-arrived Venezuelan refugee in Miami. It’s how some of the Proud Boys’ appeal to Latinos in the Miami area has been explained: Cubans and Venezuelans’ fear of communism and socialism made them turn to the Republican Party and, in some cases, drove them to become right-wing activists.[...}
While it may still be shocking for people to learn who the leader of the Proud Boys is — a Latino who, as the Capitol attack unfolded, reportedly took credit for it, writing in an encrypted text, “Make no mistake. We did this” — this isn’t the first time that Latinos have been involved in a self-identified, self-professed white supremacist collective, according to Hernández. Other examples of Latinos linked to white nationalist groups: Juan Cadavid, originally from Colombia, took part in pro-Trump violent clashes in Southern California in 2017; Alex Michael Ramos, a Puerto Rican from Georgia who beat a Black man during the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, also in 2017; and Nick Fuentes, the young white nationalist influencer of Mexican American descent.
What drives a non-white person to take part in violence against racial minorities? “What’s the best way to distance yourself from feeling like you’re part of an oppressed group? It’s to align yourself with those who are part of the oppressors,” said Hernández. Additionally, whiteness has been very elastic throughout history, she said. “People who today we think of as white people with Italian American or Irish American ancestry were, at the turn of last century, viewed as non-white. Whiteness sort of expanded to include them.”
Manuel Roig-Fanzia of The Washington Post Magazine discloses that during Watergate, Woodward and Bernstein searched through Attorney General John Mitchell’s home office at the behest of his wife, Martha Mitchell.
On this particular Sunday, Martha was calling Woodward with an invitation. Her husband, recently indicted for a second time in the cascading Watergate scandal, had left her, moving out of their Fifth Avenue apartment in Manhattan. Would Woodward and his reporting partner, Carl Bernstein — she always pronounced it, incorrectly, as “bern-STINE” ― like to come up and look through her husband’s home office?
Woodward, discussing the episode at length publicly for the first time in an interview at his Georgetown home, said he did not want to miss such a rare opportunity. The sequence of events shows Mitchell at her most swaggering but also offers a glimpse at the reportorial techniques that made Woodward and Bernstein two of the most celebrated journalists of the 20th century. [...]
Satisfied that they were working with a solid source and were on firm legal ground, Woodward and Bernstein headed for the airport and caught the Eastern Air Lines shuttle to New York. When they arrived midafternoon, Martha Mitchell greeted them at the door of her Fifth Avenue apartment. She held a martini in her hand. She was “gracious” and “a little drunk,” Bernstein recalled. Mitchell gave the reporters a tour of the well-appointed space with its floral print sofas. Then, she pointed down a long hallway. John Mitchell’s office.
“Have at it, boys,” she told them. “Please nail him. I hope you get the bastard.”
Now that is a dish that was served ice cold, lmbao.
Paul Waldman, also of The Washington Post, wonders about the reasons behind the rampant crime wave in rural America.
So how do we explain this? None of the things conservatives blame for crime — progressive prosecutors, lenient Democratic politicians, police feeling disrespected by racial justice protests, a lack of religious piety — are present in these places.
If — as we’ve all been told again and again — voters are fed up with “soft on crime” Democrats and are ready to “send them a message” in November’s midterm elections, to whom should a message be sent about the rural crime wave? And what should that message be?
The causes of the rural crime wave are as complex as those of urban crime, but at heart they’re about the pandemic. It isolated people from the friends, family and institutions that traditionally provide support. For many it caused sickness and grief. It elevated everyone’s stress level, brought new mental illness, left people feeling angry and powerless. Many took those experiences and tensions out on each other. [...]My guess is that they wouldn’t say it’s a failure of political leadership. After all, in many if not most of the affected rural areas, every public official — from the sheriff to the mayor to the county council all the way up to the House member, the senators and the governor — is a conservative Republican.
Melissa Gira Grant of The New Republic warns that Pizzagate-like conspiracies are now targeting all LGBTQ people and can take place in any city.
Now, a little more than five years later, 25 percent of Republicans identify as believers of the Pizzagate successor QAnon, and the far right’s capacity for street violence has grown. At the same time, where once most elected Republican officials would at least nominally distance themselves from Pizzagate-pushers out on the fringe, that wall has largely eroded. Across the country, GOP lawmakers have waged a legislative crusade targeting queer and trans kids, smearing opponents as “groomers,” language that rhymes with the “pedophile” claims that inspired the attack on Comet Ping Pong. And where once the targets of these conspiracy theories were largely confined to a select group of Democratic lawmakers and their allies, the fearmongering—amplified by Fox News and prominent conservative social media accounts—is now targeted at all LGBTQ people, from national figures to members of your local community. The stage is set for a Pizzagate in any city.
Ms. Grant was writing about the incident at a Pride event in the Oak Lawn section of Dallas last week but sure enough...
Bible-browbeating bigots is nothing new at Pride events; I’ve encountered them. Armed neo-Nazi white supremacists, however, is something rare.
Be careful out there.
Inside Climate News reports on a study that concludes that “divisive” cultural issues and disinformation campaigns is delaying action on climate change.
A team of researchers and environmental advocates are urging governments and Big Tech companies to do far more to stop rampant online disinformation campaigns, which they say aim to delay action on the climate crisis by intentionally dragging the issue into the culture wars now dominating Western politics. Failing to stop such campaigns, the groups warned in a new report, could further splinter unity at November’s climate talks and jeopardize a global effort that has struggled to slash planet-warming emissions.[...]
The report, which analyzed hundreds of thousands of social media posts over the last 18 months, found that despite promises from tech companies in recent years to crack down on the spread of “fake news” on their platforms, posts with misleading or false information about climate change continue to flourish online. It also found that much of the disinformation is coming from a small group of actors who wield a large sphere of influence online and have found success in sowing doubt over the urgency of global warming by tapping into populist sentiments such as distrust in scientific experts and wealthy elites, as well as a nationalistic and isolationist view of global politics.
For example, the analysis found 6,262 Facebook posts and 72,356 tweets where users blamed other countries for climate change while deflecting the responsibility of their own country. Posts from Western countries tended to highlight the shortcomings of China and India, claiming they were not doing enough so there was no point in anyone acting. The study also found 115,830 tweets and 15,443 Facebook posts that called into question—often inaccurately—the viability and effectiveness of renewable energy technologies.
Robbie Gramer and Amy Mackinnon write for Foreign Policy that Russian war crimes in Ukraine are so vast and unprecedented that efforts by various Ukrainian and international organizations to investigate and prosecute cases are becoming chaotic.
“The national legal system, even with an effective prosecutor’s office, couldn’t cope with 15,000 cases,” Oleksandra Matviichuk, a leading Ukrainian human rights lawyer and the head of the Ukraine-based Center for Civil Liberties, told Foreign Policy during a recent visit to Washington. “And remember, we are a country still at war. We have limited resources.”
There are so many alleged Russian war crimes that the investigative response is also unprecedented. The ICC, the premier intergovernmental body tasked with prosecutions of war crimes, has dispatched 42 investigators to probe possible war crimes in Ukraine, its “largest-ever” team of experts to carry out such a task. Other European countries, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Poland, joined Ukraine in setting up a so-called Joint Investigation Team to cooperate on war crimes investigations, while the U.S. government is funding complementary efforts to document war crimes and support Ukrainian organizations dedicated to doing so. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a leading multilateral organization, has also established an expert mission to document human rights abuses. In Ukraine, meanwhile, the prosecutor general’s office has brought forward several war crimes trials against captured Russian soldiers and is investigating thousands more, while civil society groups are training volunteers on how to properly document evidence of possible war crimes, effectively crowdsourcing the early stages of investigations for future cases.
There’s a growing concern among some U.S. officials and Ukrainian activists that all these concurrent efforts could eventually trip over one another and may start doing more harm than good—that is, unless there’s a central hub set up to coordinate all the work. “It’s been a little bit chaotic,” conceded one U.S. official working on supporting efforts to document war crimes in Ukraine, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media. (Van Schaack, for her part, insisted that these efforts are “decentralized,” but not chaotic, because each group is in constant contact with one another to coordinate their work.)
Rajeev Agarwal of The Diplomat writes about the efforts of India and Iran to reset their diplomatic relationship.
India and Iran share close historical ties from the times of Persian Empire and Indian kingdoms. Iran is an important nation in India’s neighborhood and in fact, the two countries shared a border until India’s partition and independence in 1947. Iran is also important to India as it provides an alternate route of connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asian republics, in the absence of permission for India to use the land route through Pakistan.
India-Iran relations have, however, witnessed ups and down over the decades, mostly owing to factors that go beyond strictly bilateral issues, like the stoppage of oil imports from Iran after May 2019 owing to U.S. sanctions following the revocation of the Iran nuclear deal, India’s close relations with Israel, and Iran’s ties with China, including signing a 25-year strategic partnership agreement. There are other sticky issues, too, like Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launching drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and UAE, both close partners to India, or Iran’s statement on the Modi government’s abrogation of Article 370 of Indian Constitution, which gave special status to Kashmir. Iran on its end has not taken kindly to India succumbing to international pressure of sanctions on Iran. However, both countries have tried to keep their engagement above such occurrences and maintain a cordial trajectory of bilateral ties.
Despite the rather subdued engagement with Iran, there are a number of areas of convergence and enhanced engagement for India to consider. Afghanistan presents one such opportunity. The Taliban government has largely been isolated since it took over Kabul in August 2021. Iran was one of the few countries that did not withdraw its embassy from Kabul and has continued to keep its channels of communication open with the Taliban. India, on the other hand, was quick to wind up its embassy in Kabul but has now indicated that it is keen to reopen its embassy in some form shortly. A delegation from India met the Taliban foreign minister in Kabul on June 2. Iran and India have collaborated already in the past on Afghanistan and Iran’s role as a viable direct land route to Afghanistan is undisputable. India and Iran have the potential to forge a common and effective policy of engagement with Afghanistan in the future.
Finally today, Robin Givhan of The Washington Post celebrates the art of photographer Gordon Parks and those that are inspired by him.
Parks died in 2006 at 93, but his artistic impact is as potent as ever. He was a Black man documenting the highs and lows of his people, as well as the broader world. His legacy is expansive, arguably more than any other Black photographer’s. He moved through life wearing cowboy hats, leather bombers and ascots, breaking racial barriers, opening doors for others. His work explored issues of inequality and poverty that still haunt us, launching conversations that continue in art, politics and activism. And most important in 2022, Parks and his foundation help subsequent generations of Black artists see themselves, their communities and their possibilities more clearly. Examining their art, and looking at the ways in which it relates to the work Parks was doing more than 50 years ago, helps us to better understand the impact of history, human nature and systemic racism on our lives today. It also reminds us to pay attention to the simple joys of everyday life.
At a time when the country is spinning in circles trying to make sense of race, ward off inhumanity and define social justice, Parks’s artistic heirs are uniquely positioned to shed light, offer guidance and question the status quo. They’re doing so with heartening audacity and blessed urgency.
“It’s not that I see so much of him in one artist. I see some of him in a lot of artists. I feel Gordon is ubiquitous,” says writer Jelani Cobb, one of the executive producers of a recent documentary on Parks and incoming dean of Columbia Journalism School. “He’s one of those people who may not have the answer, but he helps you understand the right question.”
Everyone have a good day!