Morning Digest: Colorado just released a new congressional map. We’re not covering it

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

CO Redistricting: Colorado's new redistricting commission released a preliminary map on Wednesday, making the state the first to reach this stage of the congressional redistricting process this cycle—but Daily Kos Elections won't be covering this development beyond this brief note. Inside Elections' Nathan Gonzales, who, like us, is a veteran of previous redistricting cycles, explains the situation well: "There are going to be about 14-15 million House maps to be digested over the next seven months or so. Only 44 of them will be enacted."

Colorado, in fact, is a perfect case in point. As the commission itself says, this map is only preliminary; it will now hold dozens of hearings over the summer to receive input from the public, only after which can it vote to implement a new redistricting plan. But any such map won't be finalized until it wins approval from the state Supreme Court, which has until Dec. 15 to weigh in, so we're a long way off from the end.

Procedures vary in every state, but as a rule, the redistricting process is long, messy, and iterative. Whether handled by a commission, the legislature, or the courts, it's common to see many proposals introduced and debated. Even as they advance—whether through a vote on a legislative committee, a submission by a court-appointed expert, a proposal from a commission, or any other means—they can always be amended and adjusted along the way, and often are. And of course, even a map passed by lawmakers can be vetoed by a hostile governor, just as a map approved by a court can get overturned on appeal.

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One salient example from a decade ago comes from South Carolina, where bitter GOP infighting nearly resulted in redistricting getting punted to the courts despite the fact that Republicans controlled the legislature and the governorship. A split between the upper and lower chambers saw dissident Senate Republicans join with Democrats to pass a completely different congressional map from the version their counterparts in the House had signed off on, and for a while the standoff seemed insoluble.

After a weeks-long stalemate, though, the rebels finally caved after one leader decided he preferred voting for a map he disliked instead of letting federal judges draw the lines. (As David Jarman wrote at the time, there was "no word on what type of horse's head was placed in his bed to help him arrive at this decision.") It was a fascinating illustration of how things can go haywire even in a state under one-party rule, but it also shows why it pays to be cautious before devoting a lot of time and energy to analyzing a map that may never actually be used, especially for a small outfit like Daily Kos Elections.

Things are even more complicated this year, thanks to delays in the production of the granular census data necessary to produce maps with equal-sized districts that comply with the constitutional requirement of "one person, one vote." The Census Bureau says it will provide this data by Aug. 16, which means that any maps produced before that point are reliant on population estimates, making them vulnerable to court challenges. To insulate such maps from these sorts of challenges, states will have to revise them after receiving the new data—including those that have already passed into law, like the legislative plans in Oklahoma and Illinois.

Rest assured, we will be covering the entire redistricting process thoroughly, with even more fine-grained coverage in our weekly newsletter, the Voting Rights Roundup. But this is most definitely a marathon and not a sprint: In the previous redistricting cycle, the last congressional map wasn't finalized until June of 2012, when Kansas brought up the caboose (thanks, once more, to Republican disarray). If that precedent holds, the conclusion could be a year away—and that's not counting the inevitable litigation that will follow. So, as Nathan says, take a deep breath and get ready for the long haul. We will be there the whole way.

Senate

WI-Sen: We haven't heard much from Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes about a potential Senate bid since he first publicly expressed interest in January, but he still seems very keen to run. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes that he recently hired a prominent political consultant and has also been making more official appearances. Barnes, a former state representative, was elected on a ticket with Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in 2018 and would be Wisconsin's first Black senator.

Governors

MI-Gov: Fox asked former Detroit Police Chief James Craig this week when he expected to make up his mind whether he'd seek the Republican nod, to which he responded, "I'm optimistic, hopefully within a few weeks I should be making a statement on the decision."

NY-Gov: On Thursday, Attorney General Tish James refused to give a direct answer when reporters asked if she'd rule out a campaign for the Democratic nomination. She instead replied, "The politics stops at the door of the office of attorney general." When reporter Jimmy Vielkind pointed out that James was literally standing outside the door of the office of attorney general, she laughed and added, "The door of the Capitol."

James also declined to say when she'd be finished investigating the many allegations that have been leveled against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, saying her probe "will conclude when it concludes."

VA-Gov: Republican Glenn Youngkin's vast personal fortune means that he can afford to stay on TV from now until November, and he's making the most of that advantage. The Washington Post reports that Youngkin has spent $2 million on TV and radio spots since he won the GOP nominating convention in early May; Democrat Terry McAuliffe, meanwhile, has restricted himself to digital advertising since his primary victory a little more than two weeks ago.

Youngkin campaigned for the GOP nod by touting himself as an ardent Trumpist, but unsurprisingly, he's adopted far different messaging since then. Youngkin's newest spot has him asking, "In our communities, in our houses of worship, right here at work, does anyone really care what political party we belong to?"

House

IA-02: Iowa Starting Line writes that Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan's name has been "making the rounds recently" as a potential opponent for Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, though there's no word on Bohannan's interest.

Miller-Meeks won an open seat race last year by all of 6 votes as Donald Trump was carrying this southeastern Iowa seat 51-47, but Team Red's complete control of state government gives legislators the chance to draw up a friendlier district for her next year. Under state law, a nonpartisan agency proposes maps to the state legislature, but while lawmakers have always adopted them, the GOP now can simply reject the agency's proposals and implement their own gerrymanders.

NY-22: Former Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi said Thursday that he would not wage a third campaign against Republican Claudia Tenney next year. Brindisi unseated Tenney during the 2018 blue wave but ultimately lost their rematch last year by 109 votes after months of uncertainty.

This seat, which contains Binghamton, Utica, and Rome, backed Donald Trump 55-43, but Tenney's underwhelming performance could leave her vulnerable even if state Democrats don't take full advantage of their ability to bypass the state's new bipartisan redistricting commission to draw up their own maps.

Attorneys General

AZ-AG: Former Arizona Corporation Commission Chair Kris Mayes announced this week that she would seek the Democratic nomination for state attorney general, a GOP-held open seat. Mayes joins state Rep. Diego Rodriguez in the primary.

Mayes worked as Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano's communication director in 2003 even though she was a registered Republican, and she was later appointed to the Arizona Corporation Commission, the powerful body that regulates utilities. Mayes went on to win statewide races for that office as a Republican, and she left the post at the end of 2010 due to term limits. Mayes says she re-registered as a Democrat in 2019.

Grab Bag

Where Are They Now?: President Joe Biden announced Wednesday that he was nominating former Delaware Gov. Jack Markell, a fellow Democrat, to serve as U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Rudy Giuliani’s Law License Suspended In New York

A New York court has suspended the law license of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who also served as personal attorney to former President Donald Trump.

The court claims that Giuliani made “demonstrably false and misleading” statements to courts, legislators, and the public about the 2020 election in his capacity as Trump’s attorney.

In their decision to suspend Giuliani’s license, the court wrote, “These false statements were made to improperly bolster respondent’s narrative that due to widespread voter fraud, victory in the 2020 United States presidential election was stolen from his client.” 

The court stated that Giuliani had made false claims about the number of absentee ballots that had been counted in Pennsylvania after Joe Biden had won the state’s electoral votes.

The court also stated, “We conclude that respondent’s conduct immediately threatens the public interest and warrants interim suspension from the practice of law, pending further proceedings before the Attorney Grievance Committee.”

RELATED: Wisconsin Senate Passes Bill To Make Badger State A ‘Second Amendment Sanctuary

What Rudy’s Side Is Saying

Attorneys for Giuliani, John Leventhal and Barry Kamins, said that they were “disappointed” with the court’s decision: “Our client does not pose a present danger to the public interest. We believe that once the issues are fully explored at a hearing Mr. Giuliani will be reinstated as a valued member of the legal profession that he has served so well in his many capacities for so many years.” 

Giuliani has denied any wrongdoing. In a statement to the New York Post, Giuliani likened the action to the Soviet Union stating, “It’s a complete invasion of my First Amendment rights and my rights as an attorney, I’m allowed to have a client.” 

He continued, “President Trump is not allowed to have a lawyer, of course it’s a partisan hit. I didn’t do anything wrong. There’s nothing I said that a witness didn’t tell me. We’re getting to be like East Germany.”

RELATED: Fox News’ Geraldo Rivera And Dana Perino Blast ‘Pathetic, Sleepy’ Biden Gun Control Speech 

Legal Issues For Rudy

Rudy Giuliani is facing several legal actions.

He is the defendant in a $1.3 million lawsuit where Dominion voting systems has accused him of defamation.

Giuliani claimed after the 2020 presidential election that Dominion voting machines were programmed to flip Trump votes to Biden votes. Another voting machine company, Smartmatic, has also filed suit against Giuliani.

He is scheduled to appear in court on Thursday in relation to the Dominion case.

On April 28, federal agents raided Giuliani’s home and office as part of a separate investigation by federal prosecutors in Manhattan of Giuliani’s activities in Ukraine

The feds claim Giuliani violated lobbying laws by acting as an unregistered foreign agent while working in his capacity as Donald Trump’s lawyer. 

RELATED: IRS Reportedly Rejects Christian Non-Profit Tax-Exempt Status: ‘Bible Teachings’ Are ‘Typically Affiliated With The Republican Party’  

Giuliani can now request a post-suspension hearing. He has 20 days to do so.

President Trump also weighed in, calling Giuliani the greatest mayor in the history of New York City.

 

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House Republicans To Launch Climate Caucus After Biden Claims Global Warming Is Greatest Threat To American Security

House Republicans are preparing to launch a caucus designed to educate members on the effects of climate change.

The effort, led by Representative John Curtis (R-UT), will, according to The Hill, “give members information and new strategies for how to talk about” climate change and “possibly even change some minds” on the topic.

The climate caucus reportedly already has 45 members.

Curtis says he is seeking bipartisan solutions on matters such as limiting greenhouse gasses in other countries and supporting nuclear power.

Still, he believes other less popular options for the GOP “should be on the table.”

“I didn’t really know what solutions were good solutions. I didn’t know which ones I could support,” said Curtis.

“It felt like, and I think a lot of Republicans feel this way, I had to endorse the Green New Deal if I was going to … be part of the solution, and a lot of Republicans find that troubling.”

RELATED: Biden Tells Military Servicemembers Global Warming Is Greatest Threat To American Security: ‘Not A Joke’

Climate Caucus After Biden Declares Global Warming America’s Greatest Threat

President Biden, during a speech to Air Force personnel in the United Kingdom earlier this month, warned that global warming is the “greatest threat” facing America and that it is “not a joke.”

Biden claimed he was told this by Pentagon officials when he was serving alongside Barack Obama in 2009.

“When I went over to the tank in the Pentagon when I was first was elected vice president with President Obama, the military sat us down and let us know what the greatest threats facing America were, the greatest physical threats,” he told those in attendance.

“This is not a joke,” he insisted. “You know what the Joint Chiefs told us the greatest physical threat facing America was? Global warming.”

Curtis has been seeking to get his GOP colleagues to take the matter of climate change more seriously for some time now.

“This is a Republican bread and butter issue,” he said at a climate change town hall last September. “We care about the Earth, now let’s show it.”

“We have to stop being so afraid of this conversation,” he insisted.

“We’ve got good answers. We’ve got answers that don’t kill the economy. We’ve got answers that can be bipartisan,” Curtis said. “We’re in this. We want to be part of this.”

RELATED: CA To Spend Billions Clearing Forest Floors To Combat Wildfires After Media Mocked Trump For Suggesting It

Curtis Sought to Censure Trump

On Tuesday, The Political Insider reported that wildfires in California, something Democrats have consistently blamed on climate change despite their existence throughout history, are being fought through billions of dollars in funding meant to clear out forest floors.

Perhaps that topic will be addressed in the new Republican climate caucus.

Clearing forest floors to combat wildfires in California is something that was frequently suggested by former President Donald Trump.

He was ridiculed for such suggestions.

Curtis, shortly after the Capitol protest on January 6th, introduced a resolution to censure and condemn Trump.

“The events at the Capitol last week were abhorrent; all those involved must be held accountable, including President Trump,” he said at the time.

“Censuring the President and making it clear that Congress does not support any level of his involvement in the riots nor any attempts to undermine an election is a critical step in holding him accountable as more facts continue to unfold,” added Curtis.

The Utah Republican voted against impeachment, however, citing a lack of time for a full inquiry.

 

 

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GOP riven by infighting over Big Tech crackdown

Republicans want to go after Big Tech. But they’re now openly clashing with each other over a bipartisan effort to do just that.

The House Judiciary Committee will consider a package of sweeping bills on Wednesday to crack down on the country’s largest tech companies, a proposal that’s won support from members of both parties after years of complaints from Congress about industry abuses.

But these efforts have also exposed deep divisions in the GOP over how best to rein in Silicon Valley’s power, with House Republicans sparring over the legislative push. Some GOP lawmakers have blamed leadership-aligned lobbyists for working behind the scenes to tank the measures, while others in the conference claim their colleagues went behind leaders’ backs to hash out a deal with Democrats.

The infighting, which has spilled out into public view in the run-up to the consequential committee vote, underscores that the politics of antitrust don’t cut neatly across ideological lines, despite widespread agreement over the need to curb the power of tech giants. And the schism among conservatives has created some particularly strange partnerships in the halls of Congress.

Look no further than progressive Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) linking arms on antitrust with GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Ken Buck of Colorado, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, or leading liberal Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) co-sponsoring a bill with stalwart Trump backer Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas). Such unlikely alliances also pit those very same Republicans against two powerful Trump allies: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee.

Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) questions U.S. Attorney General William Barr during a House Judiciary Committee hearing on Capitol Hill on July 28, 2020 in Washington, DC. In his first congressional testimony in more than a year, Barr faced questions from the committee about his deployment of federal law enforcement agents to Portland, Oregon, and other cities in response to Black Lives Matter protests; his role in using federal agents to violently clear protesters from Lafayette Square near the White House last month before a photo opportunity for President Donald Trump in front of a church; his intervention in court cases involving Trump's allies Roger Stone and Michael Flynn; and other issues. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

“I have a ton of respect for Jim Jordan. He literally was the person I looked up to and wanted to run for Congress to be like,” Buck said in an interview. “And so, it’s disappointing in some ways that we don’t share the same views about this, but it’s not surprising.”

“I think this is just a family disagreement,” he added.

A handful of Republicans on the Judiciary panel could join Democrats in support of the antitrust bills even as Jordan rails against the measures, creating an unusual head-butting moment between a ranking member and the rank-and-file. Jordan’s team has been asking Republican offices for a heads-up if members plan to vote for the bills, according to a GOP source, but feels confident most of the Republican committee members will be on his side.

And Jordan has repeatedly labeled the antitrust effort as a group of “Democrat bills,” even though the package was drafted in part by one of his Judiciary subcommittee leaders — underscoring lingering intraparty tensions on the panel. That dynamic could snarl the antitrust package's path in the Senate.

The five antitrust bills, which would have far-reaching implications for the economy, are aimed at prohibiting Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google from exploiting their dominant position in the digital marketplace to elbow out competitors. Each of the bills takes on a separate part of the tech companies’ business models, making it easier for the government to penalize the Silicon Valley giants.

Some of the provisions might also affect Microsoft, a tech giant that has typically escaped scrutiny in Washington's most recent antitrust wars.

Buck is a co-sponsor of all of the bills, and several have support from GOP lawmakers including Reps. Burgess Owens (Utah), Madison Cawthorn (N.C.) and Gooden. Republican interest in the issue has heightened amid GOP accusations that social media platforms are censoring conservative voices.

Yet Republican critics of the antitrust bills say they do little to address their chief concern of conservative bias and may only exacerbate what they view as a problem. Some Republicans also feel like they’ve been misled about what the bills would actually do.

The bills' support from leading liberal Democrats has made them especially toxic in some corners of the Republican conference. Jordan has been publicly pushing against the bills, while McCarthy has said he’s planning to unveil his own tech reform agenda.

“We’ve got a beef with all Big Tech in the sense of the censorship they have of conservatives now," Jordan told Fox Business on Tuesday. Jordan added, however, that the antitrust bills coming to a vote are sponsored by "four impeachment managers" — questioning top Democrats' ability to write legislation that conservatives can favor.

Further complicating the debate is the tech industry's status as one of the biggest political spenders in Washington. While lobbying is commonplace on Capitol Hill, GOP proponents of the antitrust proposal have still blamed “the D.C. swamp” for tainting Republicans’ views on it. They say Big Tech's advocates have been aggressively seeking to influence their positions — including Jeff Miller, an independent lobbyist linked to McCarthy who represents several tech clients.

Miller has been seeking out lawmakers, catching them in person or pressing them over the phone, to lobby them to oppose the legislation, according to multiple sources. One Republican said Miller left a particularly aggressive voicemail on a lawmaker’s phone.

“I have heard a couple of instances of lobbyists leaving voice messages that were really, in my opinion, unprofessional. They were demonstrating tempers and language that is inappropriate,” Buck said, though he declined to single out lobbyists by name.

Gooden echoed that sentiment to The Wall Street Journal, telling the publication last week: “Industry lobbyists in Washington are going absolutely crazy. I have received text messages and calls, some friendly and some not, but all very much against these bills.”

Miller is a registered lobbyist for both Apple and Amazon, two companies that the antitrust overhaul would directly affect. Apple has paid Miller $600,000 since he registered to lobby for the company in 2019, a significant sum for a company with a smaller K Street footprint than its tech industry peers.

Amazon Web Services, Amazon’s cloud-computing arm, has paid Miller $440,000 since he registered on its behalf in 2019. Miller has also been paid $250,000 since registering as a lobbyist for California Business Roundtable in 2020. The Roundtable counts Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos and Apple CEO Tim Cook as members.

Since 2018, when McCarthy was the second-highest ranking House Republican, Miller has given $82,500 to PACs affiliated with McCarthy and $46,100 to the GOP campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, for a total of $128,600, according to federal campaign finance records.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, May 13, 2021.

Meanwhile, McCarthy has received tens of thousands of dollars from Google, Amazon and Facebook, as well as the Koch Industries PAC, in recent years. The Koch companies' powerful network of advocacy organizations and trade groups is also lobbying against the bills, saying they would create too much government intervention in the economy.

Miller, however, is more than just a lobbyist: He also acts as a political adviser to McCarthy and has a long-standing personal relationship with the California Republican. Miller travels with the House GOP leader and has been known to appear at politically focused off-campus conference meetings.

One GOP lawmaker, who said Miller is clearly trying to influence policy, said rank-and-file members aren’t sure whether crossing the lobbyist means they are also crossing McCarthy.

“I don’t think anyone really knows the answer to that," this lawmaker added, addressing Miller candidly on condition of anonymity. "I suspect that Jeff Miller’s influence is greater in Jeff Miller's mind than Kevin McCarthy’s mind."

McCarthy’s allies counter that he has consistently railed against Silicon Valley and conservative bias in recent years. They maintain that his opposition to the package of antitrust bills is based on legitimate policy qualms — not political concerns or connections to Miller.

But the McCarthy-Miller nexus is not the only GOP-Big Tech connection drawing conservative criticism. Mike Davis, who formerly worked as the chief counsel of nominations for then-Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), is among the Republicans accusing Jordan of carrying water for Google. Jordan has received over $43,000 in donations from Google since 2005, according to campaign finance records, and Google’s parent company Alphabet was one of the top contributors to his campaign in 2020 with a $10,000 donation.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) listens as Katherine C. Tai, United States Trade Representative, testifies during a Senate Finance Committee hearing in Washington, D.C.

Jordan earlier this week sent a letter criticizing Microsoft, one of Google’s major rivals. “In case anyone was wondering if Jim Jordan's talking points against the bipartisan antitrust legislation were being written by Google, this is a huge tell,” Yelp’s senior vice president of public policy, Luther Lowe, said about the letter.

Defenders of Jordan, who raised over $18 million last cycle, say the Google money is a drop in the bucket and doesn’t affect his business on Capitol Hill. Jordan’s camp is planning on putting forward his own package of ideas of how to tackle the power of Big Tech, according to a source familiar.

The internal friction in the GOP over the antitrust bills isn’t a one-sided affair. Critics of the antitrust legislation charge Buck with failing to keep Jordan in the loop about negotiations with Democrats, an allegation Buck dismisses.

There are divisions emerging among Democrats over the legislation as well. The New Democrat Coalition, including former Microsoft executive Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), has been asking the House Judiciary Committee to postpone the markup. And moderate Democrats on the panel, including Californians Zoe Lofgren and Lou Correa, have been raising concerns that the measures are too far-reaching. Lofgren, a powerful member of the committee, is concerned that the bills "go way, way farther than is necessary to get to the actual issues,” said a Democratic staffer.

Buck, who has fashioned himself into one of the most prominent antitrust crusaders in the GOP, said in an interview that he had to keep the bill text close to the vest to prevent leaks and maintain his working relationship with Democrats. Still, it’s unusual on the Hill to see the GOP head of a subcommittee work with Democrats over his own ranking member on such a broad effort.

In fact, the Coloradan plans to go further on antitrust, staying hopeful that he can win more Republican support as the issue gains more public attention.

“The big tech companies are afraid of these bills," Buck said. "They’re afraid of being held responsible and being held accountable."

Leah Nylen contributed to this report.

Posted in Uncategorized

Democrats confront failure on elections strategy

After months of build-up, Democrats are boxed in on their party’s signature election reform plan. And there’s no apparent escape route.

Senate Republicans blocked Democrats’ sweeping ethics and elections legislation on Tuesday, a filibuster that many in President Joe Biden’s party hoped would turbocharge the demise of the chamber’s 60-vote threshold for most bills. But Democratic moderates’ support of the filibuster has only hardened in recent days, culminating in an emphatic defense of the supermajority requirement by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on the eve of Tuesday’s vote.

Liberals eager to change the minds of Sinema, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and nearly a dozen other senators reluctant to eliminate or reform the filibuster had staked their success on a series of Republican blockades on former President Donald Trump’s impeachment, a Jan. 6 commission, equal pay standards and most notably, the elections bill dubbed “S1.”

In today’s 50-50 Senate, Democrats would need every single one of their members to vote in favor of any changes to the rules, and there is no sign that’s close to happening.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema speaks at the at the hearing on Type 1 Diabetes at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on July 10, 2019 in Washington, DC.

It gets worse for Biden’s party: Now that the GOP has rejected debating the legislation that would overhaul federal elections, Democrats are without a new strategy to show party activists some momentum before the 2022 midterms. At the moment, the party doesn't have a backup plan on elections and Democratic senators acknowledged their internal maneuvering over the filibuster has only begun after months of dominating their time in control of Washington.

“There doesn’t seem to be much of a path to getting any Republican votes on voting reforms. So what does that leave?” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “It leaves a conversation in the caucus about whether you want to give Republicans the authority to continue to strip away from people the right to vote.”

Democratic leaders have told members that Tuesday’s vote is only the beginning of the discussion, not the end. And some Senate Democrats took it as a positive sign that all 50 members of the caucus — including Manchin — were united in Tuesday’s vote.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer did not detail next steps during Tuesday’s private caucus meeting, according to an attendee. But later on the floor, he said that Democrats will “have several, serious options for how to reconsider this issue" and "are going to explore every last one.”

Many in his caucus are desperate to find a path forward. “A body that won’t defend itself from an internal attack hardly deserves the name of a U.S. Senate,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “No consequences for Trump, no impeachment, no censure, no January 6 commission ... no agreement on voting rights.”

Potential backup plans after the filibuster include breaking up the elections bill into pieces to force more votes on the GOP or waiting until the fall to push a voting-rights-specific bill. Democrats could also put elections spending in a party-line budget reconciliation bill.

But on Tuesday evening success looked far off, even as Democrats vowed not to give up after Schumer promised that “failure is not an option.” Vice President Kamala Harris told reporters that “the fight is not over.”

In the meantime, the Senate is left with a handful of bipartisan gangs negotiating critical legislation on infrastructure and policing — and a lot of angry progressives who want to exercise their party’s power while they still have full control of Congress.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) was among those perplexed by Sinema’s latest defense of minority-party rights in the chamber. While Sinema said the “filibuster compels moderation,” Warren argues that “the filibuster as it’s currently used is giving Republicans a veto.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., speaks during a Senate Finance Committee hearing on the IRS budget request on Capitol Hill in Washington, on June 8, 2021.

“We’re talking about voting, which is a fundamental right, and the friction between rights and a rule that’s not even in the Constitution,” said Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.). “I would hope we would at least consider a rifle shot here of dealing specifically with voting rights and the fact that those should be inviolate.”

Progressives had long viewed the elections bill as the vehicle for Democrats to scrap the legislative filibuster. But Republicans didn’t block a bill this Congress until May 28, instead working with Democrats on water infrastructure, a new hate crimes law and competitiveness legislation. With that in mind, Democratic moderates on Tuesday suggested that despite the GOP blockade on elections legislation, they still aren’t prepared to kill the filibuster.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) demurred when asked if his mind has changed, while Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) predicted that the conversation surrounding the filibuster “will pick up speed.”

"When you talk about something again and again and again in a hypothetical sense, it's never the same as when you're actually talking about it and the reality's upon you,” Hickenlooper said after the vote.

But with such stern opposition from Manchin and Sinema to touching the filibuster rules, it doesn’t appear there’s much incentive for other members of the Democratic caucus to begin calling for easing or elimination of the 60-vote requirement. Sinema has asked for a Senate debate on the legislative filibuster and members of the caucus say the party is likely to have one, albeit internally.

Some Democrats, Manchin included, aren’t going to give up on trying to round up Republican votes for elections legislation. Thus far, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is endorsing a voting rights bill named for the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) and said she supports expanding early and absentee voting as well.

Democrats are skeptical that much will come of that.

“Sen. Manchin and several other members of the caucus want to earnestly try to engage Republicans to say: Is there no way that we can work together on voting rights?” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who is close to many Senate Republicans. “I do not see a serious interest or enthusiasm in improving access to the ballot among Republicans.”

Democrats need nine more Republicans to join Murkowski. And GOP leaders say their members are cool to doing so.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has panned a slimmed-down elections bill sought by Manchin. And even more modest reforms are likely to meet the same fate that Democrats’ sweeping bill met on Tuesday.

“I don’t think there’s anything I’ve seen yet that doesn’t fundamentally change the way states conduct elections. It’s sort of a line in the sand for most of our members,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.).

Senate Rules Committee Chair Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) announced that her next step will include field hearings on elections laws, starting in Georgia. Schumer also vowed Tuesday that Democrats would bring up the issue for debate again.

“We will not let it go,” he said. “This voter suppression cannot stand. And we are going to work tirelessly to see that it does not stand.”

Posted in Uncategorized

Pelosi to announce this week whether she will create Jan. 6 select committee

Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to announce this week whether she will create a new committee to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol, weeks after Republicans blocked a bipartisan probe under pressure from former President Donald Trump.

Pelosi’s office clarified Tuesday night that she had not formally announced plans to form that committee, capping an hour of confusion after reports surfaced that she had done so at a closed-door meeting earlier that night. In that discussion, Pelosi seemed to suggest that she would move forward with creating the committee, according to a source in the room.

The speaker did not say exactly when she would formally announce her plans. A growing number of Democrats have been pushing for a select committee, which could take on the investigative work of the Sept. 11-style commission that Republicans rejected last month.

The caucus has been debating for weeks whether to launch a separate probe when several House committees, including the Homeland Security Committee, are already leading their own investigations into the violent riot.

If the speaker does opt for a select committee, they can consolidate their investigations into a single body but run the risk of being perceived as partisan. Republicans created a select committee to investigate the 2012 attacks in the Libyan city of Benghazi, for example, but the panel drew criticism from Democrats.

Some Democrats have also privately feared that a party-line probe could further fuel tensions across the aisle, with a small but vocal faction of the GOP downplaying the violence of the Jan. 6 attack.

“If Jim Jordan were in charge, it would be just like the Benghazi investigation. Luckily, he’s not in charge,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who led the impeachment charge against Trump for inciting that insurrection in January.

The House passed legislation last month to establish a bipartisan commission, but Senate Republicans blocked the bill, arguing existing committee-led and federal investigations made the commission “extraneous.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he could bring the legislation up for another vote, but Pelosi’s announcement would appear to table any plans to force another vote.

Two Senate committees released their own bipartisan report on Jan. 6 security failures earlier this month, but Democrats took pains to say their reports were not a substitute for a broader investigation into the insurrection. The Senate committees’ reports only examined security, preparation and response to the attack rather than addressing bigger themes like the White House’s actions during the insurrection.

CLARIFICATION: This story was updated to reflect Pelosi’s decision-making from an earlier edition that cited sourcing which indicated she had announced that she decided to create the committee.
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Morning Digest: Why we won’t know the winner of New York’s mayoral primaries for weeks

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

New York City, NY Mayor: A final poll from Ipsos ahead of Tuesday's instant-runoff Democratic primary in New York City shows Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams in a strong position to secure his party's nomination, in contrast with other recent polls that have shown one of his top rivals, former city Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, prevailing in the end. But regardless of who's leading, it may not be until mid-July until we know who's actually won—more on that in a bit.

First, the new survey, which gives Adams the lead with 28% when it comes to voters' first-choice preferences, while 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang edges out Garcia 20-15 for second. This is the strongest performance in some time for Yang, the one-time frontrunner, but it's not good enough: Ipsos shows Adams beating him by a wide 56-44 spread in the seventh and final round of ranked-choice tabulations.

We've seen a few other polls in the last few weeks, and while they all agree that Adams is in striking distance to take the nomination, they're not united in designating him as the undisputed frontrunner. The best recent numbers for Adams prior to Ipsos' new data came from a Marist College poll conducted in early June that had him defeating Garcia 56-44 in the last round of tabulations.

Campaign Action

But those contrasted with Public Opinion Strategies' survey for the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, that found Garcia narrowly beating Adams 52-48 after ranked-choice tabulations were complete. The Democratic pollster Change Research, on behalf of a pro-Garcia super PAC, showed something very similar, with Garcia triumphing over Adams in the end by a slim 51-49 margin.

One big challenge for pollsters is that New York City will be the largest jurisdiction in America to ever hold an instant-runoff election, and no one, including the candidates, is quite sure what to expect. Vividly illustrating the terra incognita this new system is uncovering, Yang and Garcia made news over the weekend by campaigning together, an alliance that would never come about in a traditional primary.

The accord however, didn't quite amount to a formal coalition: While Yang implored his voters, "Rank me No. 1 and then rank Kathryn Garcia No. 2," Garcia didn't ask her supporters to make Yang their second choice. (It's not clear why Yang assented to such a one-sided arrangement, but Garcia says his team "absolutely knew what I was gonna say.")

The joint appearances drew a furious response from Adams, who spent his final days accusing his rivals of banding together to stop New York City from electing its second-ever Black mayor. Attorney Maya Wiley, who is also Black, had a very different response, expressing her support for ranked-choice voting and condemning Adams' description of the alliance as a form of "voter suppression."

No matter what, though, we're very unlikely to know for sure who's won the Democratic nomination until mid-July. While votes will be tabulated Tuesday after polls close at 9 PM ET for ballots cast in-person during the early voting period and on Election Day, mail-in votes will not be counted until the week of July 12. The New York City Board of Elections said last month that the delay is a result of a state law that allows absentee votes to be received for up to two weeks after Election Day, and for voters to fix any minor errors.

Ranked-choice tabulations will not occur on election night but will instead start June 29. You'll notice that this date is long before the count of mail ballots will begin, raising the obvious question of why anyone would bother tabulating any instant-runoff scenarios before all votes are counted, since they won't be representative of the full electorate. (If there's a good explanation, we haven't heard it.)

Instant-runoff voting is also being used in other city primaries, including races for comptroller, borough president, and City Council, many of which are open due to term limits. A big exception, though, is the crowded race for Manhattan district attorney: Because the post is a state-level office, the ballot measure New York City voters approved in 2019 to establish ranked-choice voting doesn't apply, so the victor only needs a plurality to prevail.

Key elections in the rest of the state, including the Democratic primary for mayor of Buffalo, are also being conducted with plurality rules, so there's a better chance we'll know the winners of these races somewhat earlier, though delays in processing mail ballots still apply.

Senate

AK-Sen: Donald Trump has endorsed former Alaska cabinet official Kelly Tshibaka in her quest to dethrone Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, whom Trump has long despised for her insufficient fealty. Tshibaka once wrote approvingly of "conversion therapy" and hasn't answered questions as to whether she still believes in the discredited practice herself. On a now-defunct personal blog, she also warned that the "Twilight" series of vampire books and movies "is evil and we should not read or watch it" because it "leaves us open to the enemy's attacks."

MO-Sen: Attorney Mark McCloskey, who is seeking the Republican nomination for Senate, pleaded guilty late last week to a misdemeanor assault charge after he and his wife brandished firearms at a group of Black Lives Matter demonstrators. McCloskey paid a $750 fine and surrendered the weapon he pointed at protestors last year, but he said immediately after his sentencing that "I'd do it again" and quickly purchased a new rifle that he proudly showed off on social media.

Meanwhile, it looks like we can rule out Republican Rep. Blaine Leutkemeyer for this race: A spokesperson told The Missourian that the congressman "has no interest in pursuing other offices."

NC-Sen: File this one under endorsements you don't want—if you're running in a GOP primary: Retiring Sen. Richard Burr, who was one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Donald Trump at his second impeachment trial, just described former Gov. Pat McCrory as "the only one in the race that can win the general election" in next year's Senate race in North Carolina. It's not clear whether McCrory actually considers Burr's comments to be a formal statement of support, but the surest sign we can look for is whether rival campaigns try to use this against him at some point.

PA-Sen: Montgomery County Commission Chair Val Arkoosh earned an endorsement on Monday from EMILY's List ahead of next year's Democratic primary for this open seat. Arkoosh is the only woman running a serious campaign for Team Blue's nomination, and that looks unlikely to change now that Reps. Madeleine Dean and Chrissy Houlahan have both taken their names out of contention.

Governors

AL-Gov: State Auditor Jim Zeigler said Monday that he was forming an exploratory committee for a potential Republican primary campaign against Gov. Kay Ivey, but don't mark him down as a candidate yet. Zeigler took this very action back in 2018, but he ended up staying out of that contest for governor. The auditor said later that year that he'd formed an exploratory committee for a 2020 Senate race, but he never so much as filed FEC paperwork afterwards.

AZ-Gov: Former Rep. Matt Salmon unveiled an endorsement Monday from extremist Rep. Andy Biggs for next year's Republican primary. It's hardly a surprise that Biggs decided to back his predecessor in Congress: Back in 2016, Salmon issued a retirement announcement that caught almost everyone off guard except Biggs, who immediately entered the House race with Salmon's endorsement.

CA-Gov: Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is out with a trio of TV ads as part of what Politico says is a $3 million opening reservation ahead of the unscheduled recall vote, and while the first spot touts his accomplishments, the other two take aim at his many far-right enemies.

One commercial begins, "The same Trump Republicans who refuse to accept the presidential election are back, passing voter suppression laws across the country. Now, they've set their sights on California." As footage of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol plays, the narrator declares, "Different tactics, same assault on democracy."

The final ad, which is running in Spanish, makes many of the same arguments while also focusing on a figure closer to home. The narrator reminds viewers that a recall organizer named Orrin Heatlie wrote that his allies "supported tracking immigrants with microchips."

ID-Gov: Far-right anti-government militant Ammon Bundy, who unsuccessfully tried to file paperwork for a gubernatorial bid last month, has now officially kicked off his campaign for the GOP nomination. (For what it's worth, that filing snafu appears to be have been resolved, since Bundy's campaign is now listed as "Active" on the Idaho secretary of state's website.)

Bundy is best known for leading an armed occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon in 2016, in protest of federal land management policies. While other militants were convicted of charges in relation to the occupation, Bundy himself was acquitted. Yet despite his reputation, Bundy may not be the most extreme candidate in the race, since he's competing with Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin for the title. Both are challenging incumbent Gov. Brad Little, who has yet to declare for re-election.

MD-Gov: Nonprofit executive Jon Baron announced Monday that he was joining the crowded Democratic primary for this open seat. Baron, who formed an exploratory committee back in March, is a former official in the Clinton-era Department of Defense who went on to serve on boards and commissions during the Bush and Obama administrations, though this is his first run for office.

Baron later worked as vice president of Arnold Ventures, a group supported by a billionaire couple that describes its mission as "invest[ing] in evidence-based solutions that maximize opportunity and minimize injustice." The nonprofit was in the headlines last year after it launched a program where it attempted to reduce crime by flying drones over Baltimore; Baron says he had nothing to do with this controversial initiative, which ended after six months.

NJ-Gov: Farleigh Dickinson University has put out the first poll of New Jersey's gubernatorial race conducted after the June 8 primary and finds Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy up 48-33 on former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. A poll taken by Rutgers shortly before the primary had Murphy ahead 52-26.

OR-Gov: On Friday, Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla became the first elected official to announce a campaign for the Democratic nomination for this open seat. Kulla, who works as a farmer, won his first campaign in 2018 in his county, which is located southwest of Portland.

WI-Gov: Despite (or perhaps because of) her caginess, Wisconsin political observers have been quite certain for some time that former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch would challenge Democratic Gov. Tony Evers next year, and new remarks she made over the weekend have them more convinced than ever. At a gathering on Saturday night, Kleefisch referred to a slew of Republican voter suppression bills and said that, with a different governor in office, "I can tell you she will sign them on day one"—with an emphasis on the word "she," according to the Journal Times' Adam Rogan. Still, there's no word on when she might announce.

House

FL-07: A trio of Florida Republican congressmen have endorsed Army veteran Cory Mills' bid against Democratic incumbent Stephanie Murphy: Neal Dunn, Brian Mast, and Greg Steube.

GA-06: Republican Jake Evans announced Monday that he was resigning as chair of the Georgia ethics commission ahead of what the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says is his anticipated campaign against Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath.

MO-04: On Thursday, Cass County Commissioner Ryan Johnson became the second Republican to enter the race to succeed incumbent Vicky Hartzler, who is giving up this safely red seat in the west-central part of the state to run for the Senate. Johnson joins former state Sen. Ed Emery in what could be a crowded contest.

Johnson, who is a veteran of the Army and Coast Guard, previously worked for another Missouri Republican congressman, Sam Graves, before he helmed the dark money group Missouri Alliance for Freedom. Johnson won elected office for the first time last year when he narrowly unseated an incumbent in the primary.

NM-02, Where Are They Now?: President Joe Biden announced Friday that he was nominating former Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small for a position at the Department of Agriculture, a move that ends speculation that she could instead try to retake her old seat from Republican incumbent Yvette Herrell. The current version of the 2nd District in southern New Mexico backed Donald Trump 55-43, but Democrats could shift it to the left now that they're in charge of the redistricting process for the first time in decades.

Attorneys General

TX-AG: Former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman announced Monday that she would take on scandal-plagued incumbent Ken Paxton in next year's Republican primary for attorney general.

Guzman, who was the first Latina to serve on the body, joins a nomination fight that also includes Land Commissioner George P. Bush, who has a terrible relationship with the party's nativist base. She refrained from going after Bush on his attempts to renovate the Alamo, though, and instead argued that she's the only Paxton challenger who has the experience and credibility to hold this post.

Guzman almost certainly lacks the name recognition of both her foes, though she did enter the race with an endorsement from Texans for Lawsuit Reform, which the Texas Tribune describes as "the powerful tort reform group that supported Paxton for attorney general in the 2014 and 2018 general elections." A primary runoff would take place if no one earns a majority of the vote in the first round.

Other Races

Staten Island, NY Borough President: Former Rep. Vito Fossella's lethargic comeback campaign picked up an endorsement over the weekend from Donald Trump ahead of Tuesday's instant-runoff Republican primary.

Fossella, who retired from Congress in 2009 after the public learned about his second family, faces two intra-party opponents: New York City Councilman Steven Matteo, who has the backing of the borough's Republican Party and a number of police unions, and former borough party chair Leticia Remauro, who has the Conservative Party in her corner. Four Democrats are also competing for an office that has been in GOP hands since the 1989 election.