Morning Digest: Dems need four seats to flip Michigan’s House. Our new data shows the top targets

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

Gov-by-LD, Senate-by-LD: Republicans have controlled the Michigan House of Representatives since the 2010 GOP wave despite Democrats winning more votes in three of the last four elections, but Daily Kos Elections' new data for the 2018 elections shows that Democrats have a narrow path to win the four seats they need to flip the chamber this fall.

Democrat Gretchen Whitmer defeated Republican Bill Schuette 53-44 to become governor and carried 56 of the 110 seats in the lower house—exactly the number that her party needs to take a bare majority. You can see these results visualized for the House in the map at the top of this post (with a larger version available here).

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However, because Republicans heavily gerrymandered the map to benefit themselves, the Democrats’ presidential nominee will need to decisively defeat Donald Trump in the Wolverine State to give their party a chance. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s successful re-election campaign illustrates this hurdle: Even though she beat Republican John James 52-46 statewide, she only took 54 House districts.

The entire state House is up for re-election every two years, and members can serve a maximum of three terms, making Michigan's term limits among the most restrictive in the country. Democrats made big gains in the House last cycle and reduced the GOP majority from 63-47 to 58-52.

Most importantly, four members of the GOP caucus sit in seats that backed Whitmer, making those the four ripest targets for Democrats. At the same time, no Democratic incumbents hold seats won by Schuette. However, three of these GOP-held Whitmer seats also supported Donald Trump when he narrowly carried the state two years before, so sweeping them all be a difficult task.

Team Blue’s best pickup opportunity in the state looks like HD-61 in the Kalamazoo area, which supported Whitmer by a wide 54-43 margin and backed Stabenow by a 53-45 spread. The seat also went for Hillary Clinton 49-45, making it the one GOP-held district in the entire chamber that didn’t back Trump. Republican incumbent Brandt Iden won his third term 51-49 in 2018, but term limits prevent him from running again this year.

Two other Republican seats, both located in Oakland County in the Detroit suburbs, also went for both Whitmer and Stabenow, though Trump carried them both. HD-39 backed Trump 50-46, but it supported Whitmer 53-45 and Stabenow 51-47. Republican Ryan Berman was elected to his first term by a wide 54-42, but that election took place under unusual circumstances: The Democratic candidate, Jennifer Suidan, was charged with embezzlement during the race and was sentenced to five years’ probation after the election.

Nearby is HD-38, which went for Trump 49-46 before supporting Whitmer and Stabenow 52-46 and 51-48. This seat is held by GOP state Rep. Kathy Crawford, who won her third and last term by a narrow 49-48 in 2018.

The fourth and final GOP-held Whitmer seat is HD-45, which is also located in Oakland County, but it supported her just 49.2-48.8, by a margin of 181 votes. Trump took the seat by a wider 51-44 margin, while James defeated Stabenow here 50-49. Republican incumbent Michael Webber won 55-45, but, like Iden and Crawford, he’s termed-out this year.

Democrats have a few potential targets if they fail to take all four of those seats, but they aren’t great. Another five House districts backed Schuette by a margin of less than 2%, but Trump took them all by double digits in 2016. Democrats also will need to play defense in the 10 seats they hold that voted for Trump (though two years later they all went for Whitmer). All of this means that, while Democrats do have a path to the majority, they’ll need essentially everything to go right this fall.

As for the state Senate, it’s only up in midterm years, so the GOP’s 22-16 majority is safe there for almost another three years, barring an unlikely avalanche of special elections. The good news for Democrats, though, is that 2022’s races for the legislature (and Congress) will be held under very different maps than the GOP gerrymanders in force now.

That’s because in 2018, voters approved the creation of an independent redistricting commission to draw the new lines in place of the state legislature. These new maps could give Democrats a better chance to win (or hold) the House as well as the Senate, where the GOP has been in control since it successfully recalled two Democratic legislators in early 1984.

P.S. You can find our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we'll be updating as we add new states; you can also find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.

4Q Fundraising

The deadline to file fundraising numbers for federal campaigns is Jan. 31. We'll have our House and Senate fundraising charts available next week.

NC-Sen: Thom Tillis (R-inc): $1.9 million raised, $5.3 million cash-on-hand

VA-Sen: Mark Warner (D-inc): $1.5 million raised, $7.4 million cash-on-hand

AZ-06: Karl Gentles (D): $104,000 raised, $80,000 cash-on-hand

CA-25: Christy Smith (D): $845,000 raised, $592,000 cash-on-hand

FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (R): $315,000 raised, additional $50,000 self-funded, $717,000 cash-on-hand

IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): $531,000 raised, $3 million cash-on-hand

MN-08: Pete Stauber (R-inc): $347,000 raised, $722,000 cash-on-hand

NC-02: Deborah Ross (D): $301,000 raised, $262,000 cash-on-hand

NH-02: Annie Kuster (D-inc): $452,000 raised, $2 million cash-on-hand

NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D-inc): $918,000 raised, $7.12 million cash-on-hand

TX-22: Pierce Bush (R): $660,000 raised (in three weeks)

Senate

AL-Sen: The extremist Club for Growth is going back on the air ahead of the March primary with a TV spot they first aired in November against Rep. Bradley Byrne, an establishment-aligned Republican whom they've long hated. The commercial takes aim at Byrne for supporting the Export-Import Bank, which is another favorite Club target.

GA-Sen-B: Pastor Raphael Warnock announced Thursday that he would run against appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler in November’s all-party primary, giving Democrats their first high-profile candidate in Georgia’s special election for the Senate.

Warnock quickly earned an endorsement from 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, who was Team Blue’s top choice until she took her name out of the running last year. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote earlier this month that national Democrats, as well as Abrams, wanted Warnock to challenge Loeffler, though the DSCC has not formally taken sides.

Warnock, who would be Georgia’s first black senator, is the senior pastor of the famous Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Martin Luther King Jr. once held the pulpit. Warnock has never run for office before, but he’s been involved in politics as the chair of the New Georgia Project, a group founded by Abrams with the goal of registering people of color to vote. Warnock has also used his position to call for expanding Medicaid and reforming Georgia’s criminal justice system.

Warnock joins businessman Matt Lieberman on the Democratic side, and another local politician says he’s also likely to run for Team Blue. Former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver said Thursday that Warnock’s entry hadn’t changed his own plans to run, adding that he plans to kick off his campaign in the next few weeks.

GOP Rep. Doug Collins also entered the race against Loeffler this week, but legislative leaders quickly dealt him a setback. On Thursday, state House Speaker David Ralston, despite being a Collins ally, announced that a bill that would do away with the all-party primary in favor of a traditional partisan primary would be unlikely to apply to this year’s special election. The legislation cleared the Governmental Affairs Committee earlier this week but was returned to the committee for revisions. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has threatened to veto any measure that would change the rules of this year’s special Senate race.

As we’ve noted before, both Democrats and Collins would almost certainly benefit from the proposed rule change, but it looks like the status quo will persist this year. However, Collins is arguing that he’d still have the advantage in a November all-party primary, though the data he released isn’t especially persuasive. Collins released a poll this week from McLaughlin & Associates showing Lieberman in front with 42% while Collins leads Loeffler 32-11 for the second spot in a likely January runoff.

McLaughlin is a firm that’s infamous even in GOP circles for its poor track record, but this survey is also rather stale. The poll was conducted in mid-December, when Loeffler had just been appointed to the Senate and had little name recognition. But the wealthy senator has since launched a $2.6 million ad campaign, and she’s reportedly pledged to spend $20 million to get her name out.

Lieberman was also the only Democrat mentioned in the poll, but Warnock’s Thursday announcement means he’s now no longer Team Blue’s only candidate, scrambling the picture further. And if Tarver does go ahead with his planned campaign, he could complicate matters even more by potentially splitting the vote on the left three ways and allowing Loeffler and Collins to advance to an all-GOP runoff.

Collins, meanwhile, hasn’t been on the receiving end of any negative ads yet, but that’s about to change. Politico reports that next week, the Club for Growth will start a five-week TV campaign targeting the congressman for a hefty $3 million.

IA-Sen: Businessman Eddie Mauro raised just $73,000 from donors during the fourth quarter of 2019, but the Democrat loaned himself an additional $1.5 million and ended December with $1.4 million in the bank. However, during that same quarter, Mauro repaid himself $850,000 that he'd previously loaned to his campaign. It's not clear why Mauro made this move.

The only other Democrat to release fundraising figures so far, real estate executive Theresa Greenfield, previously said she brought in $1.6 million in the final three months of last year and had $2.1 million on hand. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst said she raised $1.7 million and had $4.9 million left.

House

FL-27: This week, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy endorsed 2018 GOP nominee Maria Elvira Salazar's second bid for this Miami-area seat against freshman Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala. Salazar, who lost to Shalala 52-46 last cycle, doesn't face any serious opposition in the August GOP primary.

GA-09: State Rep. Kevin Tanner announced Thursday that he would seek the GOP nod to succeed Senate candidate Doug Collins in this safely red seat. Tanner was first elected to the legislature in 2012, and he serves as the chair of the influential Transportation Committee.

IN-05: Former state Sen. Mike Delph recently told Howey Politics that he would not seek the GOP nod for this open seat.

NY-15: This week, Assemblyman Michael Blake picked up endorsements in the June Democratic primary from SEIU 32BJ and 1199 SEIU, which represent building workers and healthcare workers, respectively. These groups make up two of the "big four" unions in New York City politics along with the Hotel Trades Council and the United Federation of Teachers. The Hotel Trades Council is supporting New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres, while the UFT does not appear to have taken sides yet in the crowded primary contest to succeed retiring Rep. Jose Serrano in this safely blue seat in The Bronx.

Last month, Blake also received the backing of District Council 37, which represents municipal workers.

Bolton hits back, decries impeachment witness ‘retribution’

Former National Security Adviser John Bolton on Thursday defended the impeachment inquiry witnesses who have been attacked by President Trump, implicitly hitting back at similar criticism he has faced for his role in the process. 

Democrats Begin to Meltdown as Their Loss Looms

By David Kamioner | January 31, 2020

There was lots of drama on the Senate floor on Thursday as it began to dawn on Democrats that their years long campaign to drive President Trump from office was falling apart.

Developments during the day included:

  • In his opening remarks Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell sent a subtle message to his fellow GOP Senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul. He told him to back off on CJ John Roberts. Roberts had the day before squelched a Paul question that named CIA informer Eric Ciaramella.Rand Paul didn’t listen and did the same thing in the first GOP question of the day. Roberts cut him down. Paul was upset and walked off the floor of the Senate. But not much later in the day Roberts allowed almost the same question, just not from Paul and not naming Ciaramella by name. At such, the Democrats, most notably Schiff, went into their victim act and fake indignation shtick.
  • The GOP team focused on the dichotomy of Democrat statements that contended that keeping the president in office was an “urgent” threat to national security and the nation itself, yet they delayed moving ahead for a month.

RELATED: Impeachment Trial Could Be Over Friday Night

  • Possible swing votes Democrat Senators Manchin of West Virginia and Jones of Alabama signaled they would be voting against Trump at least on witnesses. If Schumer doesn’t give them a waiver, for state political viability, to vote for acquittal he is insane. Another possible swing, GOP Senator Lamar of Tennessee, will stay with the president. That should hold the GOP defections to 2-3, not the 4 the Democrats need to win. It could be over by Friday night, possibly Saturday morning.
  • The Democrats attempted to use the words of Professor Jonathan Turley, a GOP House witness, in their Senate case. It didn’t work.
  • A main GOP message, well articulated by all GOP lawyers, was to implore the Senate to let the people, not impeachment, decide who inhabits the Oval Office.
  • Sensing victory on the general question, GOP Senator Toomey of PA dropped his one witness for each side deal.

RELATED: Bolton Video Guts Democrat Witness Strategy

  • After Democrats accused Trump of somehow cheating in the 2020 election before the first vote is cast, Trump lawyer Pat Cipollone hit them with, “Talk about cheating, you won’t even face him,” meaning they are afraid to face Trump in an election again.

Indeed they are. The late day and night got even more amusing. Details to follow in the next article…

This piece originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

Read more at LifeZette:
Republican Lawmaker Launches Bill To Officially Classify CNN And Washington Post As ‘Fake News’
Actress Evan Rachel Wood Gets Major Backlash For Calling Kobe Bryant A ‘Rapist’ After His Death
‘The View’ Goes Off The Rails As Impeachment Lawyer Alan Dershowitz ‘Triggers’ Hosts By Defending Trump

The post Democrats Begin to Meltdown as Their Loss Looms appeared first on The Political Insider.

GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander, a Pivotal Swing Vote, Comes Out against Calling Witnesses

GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander, a Pivotal Swing Vote, Comes Out against Calling WitnessesSenator Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.) announced on Thursday night his opposition to summoning witnesses to testify at the Senate impeachment trial, further slimming the chances any witnesses will be called at all."There is no need for more evidence to prove that the president asked Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter; he said this on television on October 3, 2019, and during his July 25, 2019, telephone call with the president of Ukraine," Alexander said in a statement. "There is no need for more evidence to conclude that the president withheld United States aid, at least in part, to pressure Ukraine to investigate the Bidens; the House managers have proved this with what they call a 'mountain of overwhelming evidence.'"Alexander concluded that Trump's actions were "inappropriate," but that "the Constitution does not give the Senate the power to remove the president from office and ban him from this year’s ballot simply for actions that are inappropriate."The senator's admission that Trump's actions were unbecoming but not impeachable paralleled arguments from the president's defense counsel Alan Dershowitz. Earlier this week, Dershowitz told the Senate that even if the president did attempt a quid pro quo of Biden investigations for military aid, the action would still not be an impeachable offense.Alexander had been considered a swing vote, so his announcement against calling witnesses will not be welcome to Democrats hoping to subpoena former White House national security adviser John Bolton.Another swing vote, moderate Republican Susan Collins of Maine, announced on Thursday evening she would vote in favor of calling witnesses."I believe hearing from certain witnesses would give each side the opportunity to more fully and fairly make their case, resolve any ambiguities, and provide additional clarity. Therefore, I will vote in support of the motion to allow witnesses and documents to be subpoenaed," she said in a statement.Democrats would need four Republican senators to vote with them to call witnesses. In addition to Collins, Senators Mitt Romney (R., Utah) and Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska) are expected to vote to call witnesses. If the vote ends in a tie, Chief Justice John Roberts has the option of casting a tie-breaking vote but is not required to. If the vote does end in a tie, no witnesses will be called.


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The Senate has actually tied in an impeachment trial – twice

The Senate has actually tied in an impeachment trial – twiceThe Senate will soon vote on whether to call witnesses in President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial. This vote could be 50-50. If a tie occurs, Chief Justice John Roberts can cast a vote to break the tie, based on a careful reading of the Constitution and impeachment precedent. It has happened before. The Founders’ wordsI am a constitutional scholar and the author of a book on John A. Bingham, one of the impeachment managers in the trial of President Andrew Johnson. Let’s start by looking the constitutional text.Article 1, Section 3 of the Constitution gives the vice president a tie-breaking vote if the Senate is equally divided. However, the vice president doesn’t preside over a presidential impeachment because of his conflict of interest: He would become president if the trial resulted in a conviction.Instead, the chief justice of the United States presides. In doing so, the natural inference is that he takes on all of the powers of the vice president. If he didn’t, presidential impeachment trials would be the only cases in which tie votes could not be broken. That’s an illogical result.Some claim that the chief justice should be treated like an ordinary senator who presides over the Senate and cannot break ties. In my view, this comparison is deeply flawed. When a senator presides over the Senate (when the vice president is absent), that person does not get a tie-breaking vote because they already get one vote as a senator. But neither the chief justice nor the vice president has a vote at all, unless there is a tie. The posture of the chief justice and the vice president toward the Senate is the same and, therefore, they logically must have the same power to break ties. Two tie-breakers from a chief justiceThe Senate rules on impeachment trials say nothing about what should occur in the event of a tie. But the Senate often relies on its precedents, rather than written rules, to govern its proceedings. So the lack of a rule specifying the chief justice’s tie-breaking power does not mean that he lacks that power.During President Andrew Johnson’s impeachment trial in 1868, Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase broke two tie votes on procedural questions.Some senators objected to the chief justice’s tie-breaking, so the Senate debated whether he could – and ultimately upheld Chase’s authority to break ties. There were no tie votes during President Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial in 1999, so there is no other example to contradict the 1868 precedent.Though the chief justice can break ties in the Senate, that says nothing about whether he must do so, nor how he should do so. These are questions that must be addressed separately depending on what the tie is about.[ Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day. ]This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts.Read more: * Limiting Senate inquiry ignores Founders’ intent for impeachment * 4 myths the Trump team promoted about Andrew JohnsonGerard Magliocca does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.


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Cartoon: The Grand Ol’ Adaptable Party

x Vimeo Video

With each new revelation or bit of evidence, Republicans in the Senate (and the House, for that matter), soften their spines a little more. Remember when Lindsey Graham thought withholding an Oval Office meeting wasn’t that big of a deal but withholding military aid, well, that would be just wrong!

It really has come down to the “So What?” defense for Donald Trump and his supporters. Wrapped in a little Alan Dershowitz legalese about the Founders only intending to impeach a president who robbed a bank for his own personal gain, and it’s looking even more likely Senate Republicans won’t budge.

Apparently a president has to say “I am presently going to commit high crimes and misdemeanors” while the offending act is witnessed by a Senate Sergeant at Arms in order to be convicted and removed from office. Enjoy the cartoon, and keep those fingers and toes crossed. (And be sure to visit me over on Patreon for prints, sketches and other behind-the-scenes goodies!)