Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: The impeachment sham trial has an end but not an exoneration.

NY Times:

To Senate Republicans, a Vote for Witnesses Is a Vote for Trouble

Lawmakers fear allowing new testimony would tie up the Senate indefinitely and open the door to a cascade of new accusations.

“We don’t need Mr. Bolton to come in and to extend this show longer, along with any other witnesses people might want, and occupy all of our time here in the Senate for the next few weeks, maybe even months,” Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas and a close ally of Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, said Tuesday evening on Fox.

Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff and a top outside adviser to Mr. McConnell, made it clear that Republicans viewed the idea of calling witnesses as a disaster in the making.

“More witnesses = Hindenburg,” Mr. Holmes wrote Wednesday on Twitter, showing a picture of the flaming airship. “None of it changes ultimate acquittal.”

They are afraid of the facts. Now, Republicans will be patting themselves on the back today about how clever they are but meanwhile …

Yoni Appelbaum/Atlantic:

Trump has led his party to this dead end, and it may well cost him his chance for reelection, presuming he is not removed through impeachment. But the president’s defeat would likely only deepen the despair that fueled his rise, confirming his supporters’ fear that the demographic tide has turned against them. That fear is the single greatest threat facing American democracy, the force that is already battering down precedents, leveling norms, and demolishing guardrails. When a group that has traditionally exercised power comes to believe that its eclipse is inevitable, and that the destruction of all it holds dear will follow, it will fight to preserve what it has—whatever the cost.

Tim Alberta had a very pointed thread on Lamar Alexander (who said the House managers proved their case, so he’s a ‘no’ on witnesses for that reason, and a ‘no’ on impeachment because what Trump did is bad but not impeachable bad):

I’ve spent a LOT of time with retired (and retiring) congressional Rs since 2016. Most feel zero sense of liberation to bash Trump on the way out. If anything, they’re even more cowed & cautious, fearing that being out of favor w: POTUS (and his party) limits their earning power.  And it’s not just about money. I’ve had numerous retiring Rs talk warily — sometimes fearfully — about the “cult” of Trump supporters back home. They worry about harassment of their families, loss of standing in local communities, estranged relationships, etc.  If you think this is a bunch of weak-ass excuse making from people who ought to rise above it and do what they think is right..... well, no argument here. I’m just explaining the reality for these Rs. They feel trapped, most of them—and retirement isn’t the escape we might think. 

But Lamar was right about one thing. The House managers proved their case:

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Lamar’s epitaph:

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That message was aimed at ex-Republicans.

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That’s our message: make them pay in November and yes, we are pissed.

Tom Nichols/USA today:

Trump is being impeached over an extortion scheme, not a 'policy dispute'

Trump was shaking down Zelensky while trying to keep the rest of the government in the dark. That’s not a 'policy,' that’s a conspiracy.

This scheme (it is too misleading even to call it a “policy”) was a rogue operation against Ukraine’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, conducted by Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani and a squad of shady characters, none of whom were answerable to anyone but Trump himself. (One wonders how Sen. Lee’s constitutionalism squares with foreign operations being conducted by the likes of Giuliani and Lev Parnas, out of sight of pesky members of Congress and their annoying questions.)

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Quin Hillyer/Washington Examiner:

The longer GOP blocks Bolton, the more he will hurt them

Senate Republicans covering for Trump are letting all their chips ride on the intensity of the voters from Trump's base to carry them through to reelection, but that’s a risky bet. Especially with highly controversial candidates, those supporters can suddenly reach a breaking point where enough is enough. I’ve seen numerous elections where support for high-risk candidates suddenly evaporated, resulting in massive, sudden swings in the polls — one from a dead heat to a 25-point loss in just three weeks.

Republicans who don’t hedge their bets by at least allowing witnesses will have no chance to survive if Trump takes a dive. The remaining Republicans would face increasing odds of finding themselves a powerless minority against an enraged and emboldened Democratic majority absolutely out for blood.

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G Elliott Morris on what the data for electability (fwiw) says, from the Economist ($$):

Who will be Donald Trump’s most forceful foe?

Data suggest that one Democratic candidate would do better than others against the president in November

Here, Mr Biden looks strong. YouGov’s polling reveals that Americans view him as the most moderate Democrat, on average. They perceive all the other major Democratic contenders as more extreme than Mr Trump (see chart).

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This is what YouGov respondents say

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A majority, but a shaky one. Then again, everything about America is shaky these days.

Dennis Aftergut/USA Today:

Dear Mr. Dershowitz, 'mixed motives' is no impeachment defense when there's corrupt intent

Taken together, Donald Trump's actions — at least seven of them — contradict the defense claim that he had any legitimate national interest in mind.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, opened the question-and-answer portion of the Senate impeachment trial by asking whether President Donald Trump was guilty if he had "mixed motives." In other words, what if he was protecting both American interests by seeking an investigation of alleged foreign corruption and protecting his own interests because the investigation — and its announcement — would smear rival Joe Biden?

The president's lawyers responded that the Senate cannot properly convict a president for a "mixed motive" quid pro quo. After all, professor Alan Dershowitz argued, all elected officials take action to help their electoral prospects, and all believe that the nation is best served by their reelection. Presidents may not be removed from office for self-serving actions that also advance the public interest.

This absurdist argument is raised as a smokescreen to avoid what makes a trial a trial: hearing testimony from firsthand witnesses such as former national security adviser John Bolton, who says the president told him he would only allow military aid if Ukraine investigated former Vice President Biden and his son Hunter.

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WaPo:

World Health Organization declares coronavirus outbreak a ‘public health emergency’

The World Health Organization announced Thursday that it was declaring the coronavirus outbreak a “public health emergency,” setting in motion a plan for global coordination to stem the spread of the virus, which originated last month in Wuhan, China.

Chinese officials announced more than 1,900 new cases of the coronavirus on the same day, as the total number of people infected in mainland China reached over 8,000 and surpassed those infected with SARS during the 2002-2003 epidemic.

The United States confirmed a sixth U.S. case of the Wuhan coronavirus on Thursday, marking the first time the virus has spread from person to person in the United States.

With experts saying a vaccine is still a long way off, more international cases of the illness have appeared. Australia, Vietnam and South Korea all announced new coronavirus infections, while India and the Philippines had their first ones. Here’s what we know so far:

One thing we know is it’s an evolving situation so what I write today might not be true in a month, but at the moment, flu seems worse, at least in the US. In China, well, that is another story. 

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One thing of concern is that personal protective supplies are running short there, and eventually here (that’s where some of it is made).

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With airline cancellations and border closures, look for economic effects soon. And don’t assume it’s over.

In the meantime, follow CDC, trusted medical sources, and be wary of internet memes and self-styled  ‘experts’. And get your flu shot and wash your hands.

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NEJM is making all coronavirus articles free, no paywall. Not a new policy, they do that with big public health issues.The Lancet has, as well. 

Back to politics:

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The Republican Impeachment Failure Isn’t About Witnesses

The Republican Impeachment Failure Isn’t About Witnesses(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Get Jonathan Bernstein’s newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe.With Senator Lamar Alexander's announcement Thursday night that he would vote against calling witnesses in President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, it appears that the Senate will wrap things up quickly. The last remaining question seems to be whether the final votes to acquit will come Friday evening or later in the night. Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Mitt Romney of Utah say they are planning to vote for witnesses, and Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska remains undecided as I write this. But without Tennessee’s Alexander there aren’t enough votes to force the trial to continue.Alexander said he accepted that Trump was guilty of what he considered “inappropriate” actions, but that they didn’t rise to the level of removal and therefore there was no need to gather additional evidence. As such statements go, it could be worse. Alexander neither defied the obvious facts nor embraced some of the more extreme theories that the president’s lawyers embraced, theories that would in effect write impeachment and removal out of the U.S. Constitution. And his basic argument, that further evidence is unnecessary if he accepts the facts as laid out by the House managers prosecuting the case, is rational.His statement wasn’t exactly consistent throughout. In particular, there’s no logic to his rejection of conviction on the grounds that it is backed only by one political party, since Alexander himself could make support for removal at least a little bipartisan. More to the point, there’s never any possibility of anything but a broad (and almost certainly bipartisan) majority for removing a president, since 67 votes would be required in the Senate. It would make some sense for a House majority to back away from an impeachment because it only has partisan support; it makes no sense for a senator from the president’s party to vote against removing that president if it’s otherwise merited on the grounds that it’s just a partisan effort.That said, both the focus on witnesses and the focus on the four senators who have been the most likely to support calling them is misplaced. The real question is how senators will vote on removing the president from office, and the key senators haven’t been Alexander, Collins, Romney and Murkowski, or even the next-most-likely group of 10 or so. The key senators are the ones squarely in the middle of the Republican majority. They’re the ones who could have made removal a real possibility, and if some of them had taken Trump’s actions seriously then there’s little doubt that Alexander and the others would have joined them.At the end, Alexander and the others were casting symbolic votes only. That’s not to say that those who believe removal was fully justified should excuse Alexander’s choice, and yes, there could be some effects from somewhat different totals on the final votes to acquit. But it’s the other Republicans, especially those who have made it clear over the last few years that they consider Trump to be unfit for the office he holds, who are the real failures here.1\. Brendan Nyhan on Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and the general election. 2\. David B. Roberts at the Monkey Cage on the importance of the September attack on Saudi oil facilities. 3\. Fernando Tormos-Aponte on presidential primaries in Puerto Rico.4\. James Wallner on the history of impeachment and witnesses in Senate trials.5\. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Noah Feldman on the preposterous claim that abuse of power is not legitimate grounds for impeachment: “The worst possible outcome for this impeachment process would be for Republicans to coalesce around the idea that Trump did everything he’s been accused of in the articles of impeachment, but had every right to do so under the Constitution.”6\. Errin Haines on California Senator Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign.7\. And Lisa Desjardins with all the questions asked by all the senators.Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.To contact the author of this story: Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Jonathan Landman at jlandman4@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.


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Trump impeachment: John Bolton defends officials who testified against president in inquiry

Trump impeachment: John Bolton defends officials who testified against president in inquiryA former top Trump official has defended leading witnesses who have testified against the US president in his impeachment inquiry, according to local media.John Bolton reportedly said the ex-members of the Trump administration “acted in the best interest of the country as they saw it” as Democrats push to hear his own testimony.


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Democratic witness bid seems doomed in Trump trial as Murkowski says no

Democratic witness bid seems doomed in Trump trial as Murkowski says noAnother pivotal Republican announced opposition on Friday to calling witnesses in President Donald Trump's U.S. Senate impeachment trial, appearing to doom a bid by Democrats to permit testimony and paving the way for his expected acquittal. Senator Lisa Murkowski said she carefully considered the need for witnesses and documents in the trial that will determine whether Trump is removed from office, but ultimately decided against it. A vote on allowing witnesses, such as former national security adviser John Bolton, is due later in the day.


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Boris Johnson Won Brexit; Now He Has to Own It

Boris Johnson Won Brexit; Now He Has to Own It(Bloomberg) -- Want to receive this post in your inbox every day? Sign up for the Balance of Power newsletter, and follow Bloomberg Politics on Twitter and Facebook for more.At 11 p.m., Britain’s bad-tempered 47-year marriage to the European Union will formally end.The man who helped engineer the divorce — U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson — must now own it. It was the charismatic Johnson who transformed the fringe Brexit movement into an all-conquering referendum campaign back in 2016, upending the government and unleashing three years of unprecedented turmoil in Britain.It was Johnson who led the hardline resistance against former Premier Theresa May’s blueprint for a “deep and special partnership” with the EU’s single market and customs union. In the end, it was a Johnson-inspired revolt that triggered May’s downfall, opening the famous black door of Number 10 Downing Street for himself.Now he must deliver.That means more than just making Brexit work for the 17.4 million people who voted for it, though this will be hard enough as businesses reassess whether jobs need to move. Most challenging of all, he must somehow heal the wounds that Brexit has cut through the country.As the economic heart of the U.K., cosmopolitan London is an alien place to residents of depressed former industrial heartlands and forgotten towns on the English coast. And Scotland’s government is agitating for another independence referendum, with a new poll suggesting voters favor breaking away.With five years until another election is due, there’s plenty of time for Johnson’s Brexit project to go wrong.Global HeadlinesAcquittal near | The most consequential day in Donald Trump’s Senate impeachment trial is set to begin, with Republican leaders likely to muster enough votes to block witnesses and rapidly move to acquit the U.S. president. Republican Senator Lamar Alexander, who had been considered a potential supporter of further testimony, decided late yesterday to vote against new evidence.Trump could be cleared in time for his State of the Union address, which he’ll deliver Tuesday from the House chamber where Democrats adopted the impeachment articles six weeks ago.Worried world | The WHO labeled China’s coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency, saying it could further expand to other countries, hours after news of the first case of human-to-human transmission in the U.S. The number of confirmed cases in China has now passed 8,000, leading nations worldwide to take dramatic measures to stop the illness from spreading.Two-thirds of China’s economy will remain shut next week as provinces and cities extend the Lunar New Year holiday. Businesses around the globe that rely on Chinese tourists face an even bigger crisis than the 2003 SARS outbreak after China curbed outbound travel and governments tightened border controls. Mounting anxiety surrounding the epidemic has governments in Asia scrambling to tamp down social media falsehoods that may fuel fear and lead to a breakdown in security.Palestinians sidelined | Trump’s Middle East peace plan pleased Israel and angered the Palestinians. But as Sylvia Westall reports, the muted response in the rest of the Arab world revealed new dynamics in the region’s corridors of power that are eclipsing the century-old tussle over land, pushing some Gulf nations closer to Israel.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attacked leading Arab states for failing to criticize the Trump plan. All eyes on Iowa | The increasing likelihood that Bernie Sanders could win Monday’s first-in-the-nation caucus threatens to redraw the path to the Democratic presidential nomination. Candidates have traditionally sought to finish in at least the top three to seize some momentum for subsequent contests. But, as Gregory Korte and Jennifer Jacobs explain, there are reasons to question whether that thinking still applies.Back off | A senior U.S. State Department official threatened this month that European carmakers would be hit with tariffs unless the EU backed Trump’s hard line on Iran. But as Patrick Donahue and Ania Nussbaum explain, diplomats from Germany, France and the U.K. said such tactics were completely unacceptable and wouldn’t help the president achieve his goals.What to WatchU.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo sought to reassure Ukraine that it retains America’s unwavering support, calling it “a bulwark between freedom and authoritarianism” during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv. The U.S. said yesterday that enemy-initiated attacks in Afghanistan reached their highest fourth-quarter number since a Pentagon watchdog began collecting data a decade ago, despite U.S.-Taliban peace talks. The White House is preparing to loosen rules on the U.S. military’s ability to use land mines, even after more than 150 countries signed a treaty banning them.Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which European politician failed to score a knock-out blow in a regional vote to accelerate his rise to national power? Send us your answers and tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.And finally ... President Muhammadu Buhari’s decision to close Nigeria’s borders with two neighboring countries in an effort to boost domestic rice production and thwart smuggling has been a bittersweet experience in the world’s second-biggest buyer of the white grain. While some farmers have capitalized on the elimination of cheap foreign competition, prices have soared for the Nigerian staple — used to make delicacies such as jollof rice — and consumers are complaining that some local grain is rotten or filled with stones. \--With assistance from Karen Leigh and Kathleen Hunter.To contact the author of this story: Tim Ross in London at tross54@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Winfrey at mwinfrey@bloomberg.net, Karl MaierFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.


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