Category: News

Sasse’s expected exit shrinks Senate’s anti-Trump wing

Posted on (Updated by Alexander Bolton

Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-Neb.) expected retirement from the Senate is the latest sign that is it harder to be a Republican critic of former President Trump in Congress than a loyal ally.

Sasse is one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict former President Trump last year during his impeachment trial over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. He’s the third to retire.

The Nebraskan senator not that long ago was also seen as a rising star in his party and a possible presidential candidate. But that possibility seemed more and more faint as Sasse’s opposition to various Trump actions grew.

Republicans who closely follow Congress say Sasse’s retirement reflects growing polarization in Washington, which has only accelerated since Trump won election to the White House in 2016. And they say there’s less of a political future for GOP lawmakers who won’t embrace Trump.  

“Trump has undermined our party. He’s running a cult and he’s a cultist figure and he’s only concerned about himself, and he’s done fundamental damage to our constitutional electoral process, and so when people who are willing to stand up to him leave the Senate, that hurts because senators should be able to stand up to someone like Trump. That’s why you get a six-year term,” said former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who was a respected fiscal conservative and a member of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) leadership team during his Senate career.   

Gregg said the departure of so many senior Republicans who were known for both their close relationships with McConnell and their willingness to be pragmatic to get important bills passed for the good of the country is a troubling sign for both the Senate and the nation.  

“It’s not surprising. The Congress has been taken over by a lot of folks who are dominated by the extremes of their party, both the Democratic and Republican, and getting things done if you’re a thoughtful centrist is very difficult,” he said of Sasse’s retirement. “I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some frustration there.”  

Gregg predicted the departure of so many seasoned legislators will make it tougher for McConnell — or any leader in Congress — to get things done next year.  

“Complex issues … requires people who are willing to cross the aisle and compromise and are substantive, and when you lose like folks like that and you lose the center of the Senate — and the center of the Senate has always been rational, thoughtful doers, versus shouters — it makes it very hard to legislate on complex and difficult issues,” he said.  

Sasse is a finalist to become the University of Florida’s next president — a position he is expected to take. It would end what had been a noteworthy Senate career.

Sasse often decried knee-jerk partisan polarization within the Senate and earlier this year unveiled an ethics reform package to restore public faith in Washington.  

It included a ban on lawmakers trading stocks and making huge salaries in lobbying jobs after leaving Congress as well as requiring presidential candidates to disclose their tax returns and prohibiting foreign nationals from funding state and local ballot initiatives.  

Trump famously refused to make his tax returns public during the 2016 and 2020 campaigns and during his time in the White House.  

“Ben Sasse was one of the people who made the Senate work,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. “And there’s a pattern of a lot people who made the Senate work who are leaving the institution, and that’s not good for the country and not good for our democracy.”

Ayres suspects that Sasse and other retiring Senate Republicans are fed up with what he called “the toxic polarization” that’s made it “difficult to do the things that led them to run for the Senate in the first place.”  

Besides Sasse, Sens. Pat Toomey (Pa.) and Richard Burr (N.C.), who also voted to convict Trump in 2021, are retiring. The other four GOP senators who voted to convict Trump are Sens. Mitt Romney (Utah), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Susan Collins (Maine) and Bill Cassidy (La.).

Lawmakers in both parties are bracing themselves for standoffs over government funding measures and legislation to raise the debt limit if House Republicans, who are generally more allied with Trump, win control of the lower chamber.  

It’s not yet clear who Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts will appoint to replace Sasse, who was reelected to a second term in 2020, but other retiring Republicans may be replaced by Republicans Trump endorsed in the primaries.  

Those Trump-backed candidates, who are either favored to win or have a good chance of being elected, include Rep. Ted Budd (R) in North Carolina, J.D. Vance in Ohio and Eric Schmitt in Missouri. 

Budd has embraced Trump’s claims of election fraud and introduced his Combat Voter Fraud Act, while Vance said in January the election was stolen and Schmitt joined a lawsuit with 17 other state attorneys general to overturn the results of the 2020 election.  

Sasse was an outspoken critic of Trump throughout his Senate career, though he toned down his criticisms in time to win Trump’s endorsement during his 2020 Republican primary.  

But after clinching the Senate GOP nomination for Nebraska, he ripped Trump apart at a telephone town hall a few weeks before the 2020 general election, calling the president’s values “deficient” because of “the way he kisses dictators’ butts” and “mocks evangelicals” and “flirted with white supremacists.”  

When he voted to impeach Trump, he declared the former president had “lied about widespread voter fraud,” spread “conspiracy theories” and fanned those lies when he summoned his supporters to Capitol Hill to “intimidate Vice President Pence” into halting the certification of Joe Biden’s victory.  

Burr and Toomey joined Sasse in voting to convict Trump on the charge of inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection during his second impeachment trial. But several retiring senators who have often been loyal to McConnell were willing to stand up to Trump in significant ways.   

Retiring Sen. Ron Portman (R-Ohio) played a lead role in negotiating last year’s $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which 18 other Republicans voted for, including retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Burr and McConnell. Trump fiercely opposed the bill, and later said Republicans who voted for it should “be ashamed of themselves” for “helping the Democrats.”   

In October of last year, Blunt, Portman and retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)  joined McConnell in voting for a procedural motion to circumvent a filibuster on legislation to raise the federal debt ceiling and avoid a national default, again despite Trump’s opposition. Trump at the time accused these Republicans of “folding to the Democrats again.”   

James Wallner, a former Senate Republican aide, predicted that McConnell may have to undergo a tough transition next year when many of his loyal allies will be replaced by pro-Trump Republicans unfamiliar with the arcane procedures of the Senate and the nuances and challenges of getting bills passed.  

“Just look at what happened after the 2010 election; it took Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans to get a handle on the” conservatives who were elected in the Tea Party revolution, Wallner said. “There was a lot of turmoil and institutional uncertainty after that election.  

“If you have a large number of members on either side of the aisle come in, the potential for disrupting business as usual in the Senate is a lot greater,” he said.  

Lawmakers furious at Democratic leaders after stock trading ban stalls

Posted on (Updated by Tobias Burns

Anger is boiling over at House Democratic leadership for failing to deliver on a bill to ban members of Congress from trading stocks — a key priority for voters on both sides of the aisle — ahead of the midterm elections.  

Democratic leaders unveiled draft legislation to tackle the issue Tuesday, just days before Congress was set to leave for an extended recess. That left lawmakers little time to review the bill or offer changes, such as closing loopholes that critics say make the bill toothless, dooming its chances of a floor vote. 

Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) on Friday issued a scathing statement, accusing Democratic leaders of slow-walking her own stock trading proposal — introduced two years ago with bipartisan backing — and ultimately offering a more complicated bill that was designed to fail. 

“This moment marks a failure of House leadership — and it’s yet another example of why I believe that the Democratic Party needs new leaders in the halls of Capitol Hill, as I have long made known,” Spanberger said in her statement.  

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told reporters Friday that the bill didn’t come to the floor because it didn’t have the votes to pass.  

The delay is a momentous setback for the stock trading reform effort, which drew a rare confluence of support from an overwhelming majority of Republican and Democratic voters.  

Public scrutiny of lawmakers’ trades intensified when Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) unloaded much of his portfolio after attending a private briefing on the devastating impacts of COVID-19 at the start of the pandemic. Pelosi, whose husband is a prolific trader, also drew backlash when she said she wouldn’t support a ban on stock trading in Congress, a position she later reversed. 

“Passing a stock trading bill before the midterms would have been a good faith sign to the voters that Congress takes its responsibility to the public interest seriously,” said Danielle Caputo, an ethics lawyer at the Campaign Legal Center. “And so obviously, that's disappointing.” 

The Combatting Financial Conflicts of Interests in Government Act, spearheaded by Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) at the request of Pelosi, aims to prevent insider trading among members of Congress, federal government officials and Supreme Court justices. 

The bill is meant to stop insider trading by making officials put any stocks they own into what’s called a blind trust, whereby the stocks are handed over to a third party that manages them without their owner’s knowledge. 

But critics of the bill say that it contains a loophole that allows officials to get out of this requirement. 

“The problem is that the bill allows people to create a trust that they can claim is blind and diversified, and yet it doesn’t actually have to meet the criteria that are currently in the law for it to officially be a blind trust,” said Dylan Hedtler-Gaudette, an advocate with The Project on Government Oversight (POGO), a nonprofit watchdog organization.  

Congressional ethics committees, notorious for failing to hold lawmakers accountable for violating existing ethics rules, would sign off on the blind trusts under the proposal.  

“It’s basically a fake blind trust,” he said. “We don’t have that much trust in what the ethics committee is going to do because they’re notoriously weak in doing anything that’s particularly restrictive or robust around what happens internally.” 

Critics of Democratic leaders’ approach say that the stock trading bill should have stuck to the legislative branch, and that including ethics reforms to the judiciary and federal government only complicated its chances of passage. Those changes could have come in future bills, they said. 

Lawmakers complained this week that the Lofgren bill was not crafted with input from many rank-and-file lawmakers, particularly Republicans.  

“This is a complex issue requiring thought, debate, amendment and a full airing in committee to build as much bipartisan agreement as possible rather than the normal cram-down from the top that permeates literally everything we do,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who partnered with Spanberger on a stock trading bill, said in a statement Wednesday. 

House Judiciary Committee member Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) said in an interview that he suspects that many members of his committee haven’t had time to properly review the legislation. 

“I would suppose there are many members who have not actually read the legislation. And it’s certainly an important enough issue that we need to take adequate time to deliberate on it. We know that stock trading by members of Congress and by judges — Article III judges — is unacceptable,” he said, referring to judges who are nominated by the president and can only be removed from office with impeachment proceedings. 

A recent analysis by The New York Times found that one-fifth of U.S. lawmakers traded financial assets in industries that relate to their work on government committees in recent years.  

A 2012 law called the STOCK Act forbids members of Congress from using insider information when buying and selling stocks, but watchdogs say violations of the law are common. 

“We keep seeing STOCK Act violations,” POGO’s Hedtler-Gaudette said. “We see them time and time again. And they’re not even assessing penalties on the people who are violating the STOCK Act.” 

The proposed stock trading ban in the House is one of several bills now being debated in the Senate from lawmakers including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). 

Upon hearing the news of the stalled bill Friday, Hawley tweeted, "Pathetic. This should be a slam dunk."

"Congress AND their spouses from owning stock. But no. Pelosi & Company won’t give up the $$$$," he continued.

The proposals from Hawley and Ossoff allow for stocks to be put into blind trusts, while the bipartisan measure from Warren and Daines is more strict and requires that stocks be sold off outright. 

Supporters are still hopeful that lawmakers can finish a stock trading bill in a lame duck session after the election. But they note that there will be less pressure on lawmakers to appease voters, and Congress will already have its hands full with a slew of legislative priorities, including a government spending bill. 

The Hill has reached out to Pelosi's office for additional comment.

Updated 4:02 p.m.

Five Republicans poised to increase their power if the GOP takes the House

Posted on (Updated by Emily Brooks

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report incorrectly listed Rep. James Comer's home state.

Top Republicans on House panels, confident about the GOP’s chances of taking control of the chamber next year, have for months been planning what they’ll do with committee gavels.

Committee chairs influence hearing focus, investigations and subpoenas, in addition to legislative priorities. Lawmakers’ personal style can play a large role in a committee’s work.

The House Republican Conference’s Steering Committee will formally select most committee chairs. But while the leaders of some committees are up in the air, most current ranking members are poised to be chairs next year. 

Here are ranking members on five powerful committees likely to increase their power in a GOP majority.

Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), ranking member on House Oversight and Reform Committee

Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) addresses the audience gathered at the Fancy Farm Picnic in Fancy Farm, Ky.

With many top GOP priorities unlikely to overcome a Senate filibuster or a presidential veto in the next two years, a major focus for a GOP-led House next year will be challenging the Biden administration through oversight and investigations.

Comer plans to focus the committee’s investigations into three main areas next year: the origins of the coronavirus, policies at the U.S.-Mexico border and the overseas activities of President Biden’s son Hunter Biden.

Comer, along with House Judiciary Committee ranking member Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), released emails between chief White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci and other top public health officials discussing the possibility of the virus originating in a lab.

He says the committee's staff has a copy of Hunter Biden's infamous laptop hard drive, which he says would allow him to look into his suspicions that some of the president’s decisions may have been impacted by his son’s business dealings — allegations President Biden has repeatedly denied.

But while his panel leads those probes, Comer says he does not want to overuse subpoena power.

“I want to hope that when my time is done as Chairman of the Oversight Committee, they will say, ‘He was fair, we didn’t try to do anything overtly political,’” Comer told The Hill in an interview earlier this year.

Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas), ranking member on House Appropriations Committee

Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington as she emerges from a closed-door session with fellow Republicans.

Granger is in line to become chair of the Appropriations panel, raising her status as a powerful negotiator for government funding deals.

The committee has broad jurisdiction over funding the government and is composed of 12 subcommittees, each of which have authority over different parts of the government.

In several letters sent last week, Granger showed a willingness to challenge administrative agencies on their authority in light of a Supreme Court ruling this year that conservatives saw as a key victory in their quest to reign in regulatory powers.

“The Constitution clearly states that Congress, not the administration, has the power and responsibility to legislate. Unfortunately, the administration continues to overstep its authority,” Granger said in a statement. 

Granger, who has been in the House for nearly 25 years and is the most senior Republican woman in the chamber, has held the committee’s ranking member post for two cycles. Before that, she led the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, which is responsible for a large chunk of federal funding.

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), ranking member on House Energy and Commerce Committee

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) smiles during a news conference at the Republican congressional retreat in Philadelphia.

Rodgers would be the first woman to lead the House Energy and Commerce panel. And she already has plans for the committee’s top priorities.

“Very big picture, it’s to protect Americans and to unleash innovation and technology in the United States of America,” Rodgers told Punchbowl News last month when asked about priorities for the panel in a GOP House majority.

The congresswoman has three areas of focus: unleashing American energy, holding big tech accountable and probes into health care, particularly ones zeroing in on the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the energy front, Rodgers emphasized the importance of bringing down carbon emissions and decreasing dependence on China. She said TikTok was among the “worst actors” in tech and raised concerns regarding data collected and stored in China and kids on social media.

And on the third prong, health care, Rodgers wants to dive into the U.S.’s coronavirus response, explore how to prepare for future pandemics, and bring the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under congressional authorization.

She also vowed to bring Fauci before the committee, even though he will be gone from government at that point.

Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), ranking member on House Armed Services Committee

U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers talks as a character witness during former Alabama House Speaker Mike Hubbard ethics trial in Opelika, Ala.

One area Rogers has his eyes on if he leads the Armed Services panel next year is the Biden administration’s efforts to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal, which then-President Trump pulled the U.S. out of in 2018.

As part of the agreement, struck under former President Obama in 2015, Iran said it would disassemble parts of its nuclear program and allow more widespread inspections of its facilities. In return, Tehran was freed of billions of dollars' worth of sanctions.

Rogers, who previously served as ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee, has promised to block any attempts at bringing back the deal.

“Let me make this clear, this deal with Iran will be dead on arrival in a Republican controlled Congress and Congress will strengthen sanctions against Iran,” Rogers wrote in a statement in response to reports of the Biden administration working to bring the deal back to life.

The Armed Services panel will also likely focus on last year’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan if Republicans take control of the lower chamber. Thirteen U.S. service members died in a suicide attack outside the Kabul airport on Aug. 26, 2021, amid the U.S.’s evacuation.

In a statement commemorating the one-year anniversary of the fatal attack, Rogers vowed to continue pushing for answers regarding the failures that led to the 13 deaths.

“We still lack answers from the Biden Administration on why military advice was ignored, why the withdrawal was based on a date and not the reality on the ground, and why no one has been held accountable for the security failures that led to the bombing one year ago,” Rogers said.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), ranking member on House Judiciary Committee 

Rep. Jim Jordan, U.S. Representative for Ohio's 4th Congressional District, speaks at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio.

Jordan, a founding former chairman of the confrontational conservative House Freedom Caucus, went from being a challenger to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to lead the House Republican Conference a few years ago to a steadfast supporter of McCarthy for Speaker next year if Republicans win the House.

With the subpoena power that comes with the Judiciary panel's gavel, Jordan — an ally of Trump — could have a leading role in House GOP investigatory actions.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) and FBI are top targets for Jordan, who has said that 14 whistleblowers from within the FBI have come to his committee alleging various politically motivated bias against conservatives.

“We’re going to look into this weaponization of the DOJ against the American people,” Jordan said last week at House Republicans’ event in Pennsylvania rolling out a “Commitment to America” policy and messaging platform. 

Some of that will have to do with DOJ investigations into Trump. Jordan, Comer and McCarthy earlier this month requested a hearing with Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray on the FBI’s search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and recovery of classified documents and asked them to preserve communications and documents relating to the raid, an indication that the committee may utilize its subpoena power in the future. 

The Judiciary panel would also have jurisdiction over any impeachment efforts. Many right-wing Republicans have pushed for impeaching Biden, and McCarthy has opened the door to impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. 

Bonus: Open races for top slots

Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) speaks during a legislative summit featuring Nebraska's elected Congressional and House officials, in Ashland, Neb.

With Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) retiring from Congress at the end of the year, the top GOP slot on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee is up for grabs next year. Three members are seeking the position: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), who is next in line on the committee; Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), the third-ranking Republican on the panel; and Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), the current ranking member on the House Budget Committee who announced a bid for Ways and Means chair when he opted out of running for Senate in this cycle.

The Homeland Security Committee gavel is also an open race, with ranking member John Katko (R-N.Y.) leaving Congress at the end of the year. Third-ranking Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) is interested in the slot, as are two members who previously sat on the committee: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) and Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.). With the GOP’s heavy focus on migration policies at the U.S.-Mexico border, the panel would have plenty of high-profile activity under a GOP majority.

--Updated at 10:40 a.m.

Mace says there is ‘pressure on the Republicans’ to impeach Biden if they win House

Posted on (Updated by Zach Schonfeld

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) on Sunday said Republicans will face pressure to impeach President Biden if they take the House majority in the midterms.

“I believe there's a lot of pressure on Republicans to have that vote, to put that legislation forward, and to have that vote,” Mace said of an impeachment vote when asked by NBC “Meet the Press” moderator Chuck Todd. 

“I think that is something that some folks are considering,” she continued.

Mace declined to say how she would vote on a potential Biden impeachment, but noted that she did not vote to impeach former President Trump in 2021 because “due process was stripped away.”

“I will not vote for impeachment of any president if I feel that due process has been stripped away for anyone, and I typically vote constitutionally regardless of who's in power,” she told Todd.

“I want to do the right thing for the long term because this isn't just about today, tomorrow, this year's election. This is about the future of democracy. This is about protecting our Constitution.”

Others in Mace’s conference have already taken the first step toward impeaching the president.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) introduced articles of impeachment against Biden the day after his inauguration, accusing him of abuse of power in relation to the business dealings of his son, Hunter Biden, in Ukraine.

House Republican leadership last week released an outline of their agenda if they take the House majority, dubbed “Commitment to America.”

The agenda proposes conducting “rigorous oversight to rein in government abuse of power and corruption,” referencing the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, although it does not detail specifics as to how Republicans would do so.

When pressed on Republicans’ potential plans to impeach Biden, Mace on Sunday said she would prefer to keep the focus on reducing inflation and improving the economy, rather than “chasing that rabbit down the hole.”

“I do believe it's divisive, which is why I push back on it personally when I hear folks saying they're going to file articles of impeachment in the House,” she said. “I push back against those comments because we need to be working together.”

Cheney: ‘Any interaction’ Trump has with Jan. 6 committee will be under oath, subject to perjury penalties

Posted on (Updated by Julia Shapero

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) emphasized on Saturday that “any interaction” former President Trump has with the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol will be “under oath and subject to penalties of perjury.”

Cheney, who serves as the vice chair of the committee, has remained tight-lipped about many aspects of the panel’s investigation into the Jan. 6 riot, as have her fellow committee members.

In a Saturday interview with Texas Tribune CEO Evan Smith, Cheney declined to specifically say whether the panel would like to hear from the former president, instead noting that if it does he will be required to tell the truth.

Cheney, a prominent Trump critic, did not otherwise hold back in speaking against the former president, however, calling him “fundamentally destructive” for the Republican Party. The congresswoman pointed to responses from her fellow members of the GOP to presidential records being recovered from the former president's Mar-a-Lago home as the latest example.

“You look at how many senior Republicans are going through contortions to try to defend the fact that the former president had stored in a desk drawer apparently, in an unsecure storage room, in a resort … documents that had the highest classification markings,” Cheney told Smith at the Tribune’s annual festival.

Despite her views on the former president, Cheney told Smith she does not regret voting against Trump’s first impeachment based on the evidence. She also noted that those proceedings have informed her current work on the Jan. 6 Committee.

“They would have had more Republican votes if they had enforced their subpoenas, and that is certainly a lesson that we have taken into [the] Jan. 6 Select Committee’s work,” Cheney said.

The Jan. 6 Committee has taken a strong stance on enforcing its subpoenas, referring several Trump allies for criminal contempt of Congress.

Cheney said she would "do everything I can" to ensure Trump is not the Republican nominee for president in 2024.

"And if he is the nominee," she added, "I won’t be a Republican.”

Support from women boosts Biden to another year-high approval rating: poll

Posted on (Updated by Chloe Folmar

President Biden's approval rating has hit a year-high in the third poll this week, driven largely by an increase in support from female voters.

An Emerson College poll released Friday found 45 percent of voters said they approve of Biden's performance, a 3-point increase since last month, while 49 percent disapprove, a two-point decrease.

“Biden’s increase in approval appears to be driven by women voters. Since July, women voters’ approval of the President has jumped 10 points, from 39% to 49%,” Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said.

His approval rating in the Emerson poll has been increasing steadily since April, when it sat at 41 percent, but remains underwater in a difficult political climate.

Still, Biden has seen a series of positive polls this week. A Politico-Morning Consult survey, published on Wednesday, found that 46 percent of all respondents approve of the job Biden is doing as president, the highest level since December in that poll. And his approval hit 45 percent in an NBC News poll, the highest since October.

Responses to the generic congressional ballot remained largely unchanged since last month, with 45 percent of voters saying they would vote for a Democratic candidate and 45 percent saying they'd vote for a Republican.

“Women voters support the Democratic congressional candidate over the Republican candidate by 10 points, while men break for the Republican candidate by 12,” Kimball said.

A large swath of respondents (39 percent) ranked the economy as the most important factor in their vote, followed by threats to democracy (15 percent) and abortion access (10 percent).

There is also tight competition on whether voters would support Biden or former President Trump if they became the presidential nominees in 2024, with 45 percent opting for Biden and 44 percent for Trump. That difference of 1 percentage point is within the poll’s margin of error.

Six percent of those polled said they would vote for neither Biden nor Trump in the hypothetical contest, while 5 percent said that they are undecided.

McCarthy keeps right flank tight as he closes in on Speakership

Posted on (Updated by Emily Brooks

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is giving the confrontational right flank of the GOP conference a seat at the table as he aims to shore up their support for Speaker if Republicans take the chamber next year.

McCarthy is eyeing having to manage a conference next year that is expected to tilt further to the right with a higher proportion of allies loyal to former President Trump. 

And he’s starting now by including controversial figures and members of the House Freedom Caucus in high-profile events in an effort to seemingly win them over — unlike some of his GOP predecessors.

Firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) will be at a rollout event outside Pittsburgh on Friday for McCarthy’s Commitment to America policy platform, a list of policy priorities inspired by the 1994 Contract with America.

“I’m really happy with it,” Greene said of the plan. “The reason why I'm involved in — going to be actively involved is to make sure that we can push to get the right things in there when it comes time to put the bills to the floor.”

The rollout of the plan marks not just a formal statement of policy priorities aimed at wooing voters, but the culmination of McCarthy’s work to unify an ideologically and stylistically diverse conference around his leadership.

More than a year ago, McCarthy formed several task forces intended to craft policies that members could run on during the midterms. The vast majority of such Republican members were on the panels, including Greene and House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry (Pa.), among others.

That has helped McCarthy gain buy-in from the right for his vision of a GOP majority. 

McCarthy told reporters that the conference was “very much” unified around the Commitment to America plan, and that he “didn’t hear one negative word” about it.

“You know the conference, right? The different philosophical makeup. You could go from John Katko” — a more moderate New York Republican who is retiring — “to Marjorie Greene” he said, reflecting on the party’s political spectrum.

But some members have stopped short of giving full-throated support for the plan or his Speakership bid, raising questions about whether he would have enough votes should the chamber remain closely split in the new Congress.

“I think it's a pretty good start. We've got a plan. I think we’ve got to put some — a little more meat on the bones. But it gives us a place to land, and all be kind of on the same page as we go after the last month here,” Perry said.

Asked whether she would support McCarthy for Speaker, Greene told reporters that she was not thinking about the leadership election yet.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) expressed approval of the plan for uniting the conference around a midterm message, but hinted at keeping up pressure on House GOP leadership.

“As someone who's a conservative in the Freedom Caucus, part of my job is also accountability for the Republicans to do what we said we would do,” Roy said. “So, as we unite around a message to take our country back, I'll be making sure that there's some specificity and what that means should we win the majority.”

The plan also does not address some of the biggest demands from the right wing, like the potential of impeaching President Biden.

​​”I think the Republican controlled majority if they want to be successful, especially going at 2024, they'll definitely make that a priority,” said Greene, who has introduced multiple impeachment resolutions against Biden.

McCarthy has watched up close the right-wing turmoil that previously plagued GOP House leadership.

“I’ve learned from the other mistakes,” McCarthy, in a March interview with Punchbowl News, said of former GOP Speakers John Boehner (Ohio) and Paul Ryan (Wis.).

Boehner, for his part, was punished by those in the right flank who publicly challenged him, such as former Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), a founding member of the Freedom Caucus which was formed around that time. Meadows was removed from a subcommittee chairmanship after clashing with the Speaker on a procedural vote. 

More procedural moves from Meadows helped propel Boehner to a surprise retirement in 2015, stunning Washington one year after former Virginia Republican Rep. Eric Cantor became the first sitting House majority leader to lose his congressional seat to a political newcomer, and eventual Freedom Caucus member, Dave Brat.

Ryan spent much of 2016 doing a delicate dance around Trump’s candidacy — despite at times getting hammered by the Republican presidential nominee over the course of the election and during his early tenure in the White House before Ryan himself retired. 

The Wisconsin Republican often had to tread between voicing support of his party’s president while disavowing some of Trump’s more inflammatory remarks on immigration and minority groups.

That type of intraparty turmoil seems to have evolved under McCarthy, unlike other previous leaders of the GOP conference.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), another founder of the House Freedom Caucus, challenged McCarthy to lead House Republicans four years ago. But instead of being banished by leadership, he has been elevated. 

Jordan is now ranking member on the House Judiciary Committee and eyeing leading numerous probes as chair of the panel in a majority. He has repeatedly said he is supporting McCarthy for Speaker. 

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker who was the architect of the 1994 Contract with America that preceded a massive midterm win for the party, had high praise for McCarthy’s handling of the diverse caucus as he walked out of a House GOP meeting unveiling the plan to members.

“He's a much better manager than I was,” Gingrich said. “I was amazed at members who normally find some reason not to be together getting up and saying, ‘We're on the same team.’”

Biden approval at highest level in new poll since December

Posted on (Updated by Olafimihan Oshin

President Biden’s approval rating has reached its highest level since last December in a new poll. 

The Politico-Morning Consult survey, published on Wednesday, found that 46 percent of all respondents approve of the job Biden is doing as president.

Eight-five percent of Democrats surveyed currently approve of the job Biden is doing, while only 10 percent of Republican respondents agree with the sentiment. 

Thirty-five percent of independents in the survey approve of the job Biden is doing as president. 

A similar Morning Consult poll in early June showed that 39 percent of respondents approved of the job Biden was doing as president, which marked an all-time low for him. 

Recently, Biden and his administration have seen a slew of legislative victories, which include the passing of his climate, health care and tax package, his signing of a bipartisan gun safety bill and the announcement of an initiative to cancel student loan debt for millions of Americans. 

When asked in the new survey about the upcoming midterm elections, 46 percent of registered Democrats said they will vote in November, compared to 41 percent of registered Republicans.

The new Politico-Morning Consult poll, which was conducted earlier this month, has a margin of error of 2 percentage points for all respondents and 4 points for party breakdowns.

Kinzinger on GOP-majority House: They’re going to demand a Biden impeachment vote every week

Posted on (Updated by Mychael Schnell

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) in a new interview predicts that GOP lawmakers will demand a vote to impeach President Biden "every week" if Republicans take control of the House in the midterms.

Kinzinger, a frequent critic of former President Trump and his allies on Capitol Hill, compared previous efforts by congressional Republicans to what he predicts “crazies” will attempt to do under a GOP majority.

“Back before we had all the crazies here — just some crazies — you know, every vote we took, we had to somehow defund ObamaCare. ... You'll remember, right when we took over it was we need to do the omnibus bill, but we're not going to vote for it because it doesn't defund ObamaCare,” Kinzinger said on CNN’s “The Axe Files with David Axelrod,” released Monday.

“That's going to look like child's play in terms of what [Rep.] Marjorie Taylor Greene [R-Ga.] is going to demand of [House GOP Leader] Kevin McCarthy [Calif.]. They're going to demand an impeachment vote on President Biden every week,” he added.

Republicans are widely expected to take control of the House in November, though Democrats are battling to limit the size of a potential GOP majority. According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans are favored to win control of the lower chamber over Democrats, 71 percent to 29 percent.

If they do secure the majority, a number of Republican lawmakers are preparing plans to impeach Biden over various matters. Some conservative House members have already introduced impeachment articles against the president over his administration's efforts on border enforcement, the COVID-19 pandemic and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan last year, to name a few. 

Kinzinger said a GOP House majority may also try to “make abortion illegal in all circumstances on this omnibus bill.”

The Illinois Republican, who is not running for reelection in November, predicted that McCarthy — the current House minority leader who is expected to become Speaker if Republicans win the lower chamber — will have a difficult time governing because of “crazies” in the GOP conference.

“I think it'll be a very difficult majority for him to govern unless he just chooses to go absolutely crazy with them. In which case you may see the rise of the silent, non-existent moderate Republican that may still exist out there, but I don't know,” he said.

Kinzinger predicted that McCarthy is “not going to be able to do much” and also raised the possibility that the GOP leader would not receive the Speaker's gavel at all, suggesting Trump and members of the conservative Freedom Caucus could push for a more right-leaning leader.

McCarthy was close to the Speakership in 2015 but ultimately dropped out of contention after making a controversial comment about the taxpayer-funded Benghazi Committee.

“I think it's quite possible,” Kinzinger told Axelrod when asked if McCarthy will not be Speaker come January.

“I think if there's, particularly if there's a narrow Republican majority, let's say there's five, a five-seat Republican majority, it only takes five Republicans or six Republicans to come together, deny Kevin the Speakership because they weren't, let's say, [Rep.] Jim Jordan [R-Ohio], where they have this idea that Donald Trump can sit as Speaker. Any of them can do that. And I know these Freedom Caucus members fairly well, and I know that they have no problem turning their back on [McCarthy] and they will,” he added.

He said he would “absolutely love to see” McCarthy not become Speaker in January.

Democrats brace for life with a House GOP majority

Posted on (Updated by Alexander Bolton

Senate Democrats are bracing for the possibility for life under a divided government, with President Biden in office and a strong possibility of a Republican-controlled House.

Democrats hope they can retain their majority in the Senate, where a number of political handicappers say the party is favored. That would give Democrats more leverage and congressional support for Biden over the next two years.

But if the House does fall as expected, lawmakers expect partisan gridlock.

Some Democrats are predicting government shutdowns and standoffs over raising the federal debt limit will take center stage.  

“If Republicans win control of the House, they will not be able to govern. It’ll be a cascading nightmare of dysfunction and horrible for the country and horrible news for anybody who relies on federal funding,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. 

Murphy predicted that if Republicans are in charge of one or both chambers, “it’s probably a series of shutdowns and funding crises.” 

“This new breed of Republicans are anarchists. They don’t really believe government should be funding anything,” he added.  

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the House minority leader who is in line to become Speaker if Republicans win the lower chamber, is more allied with former President Trump than his Senate GOP counterpart, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).  

McCarthy sided with Trump last year when the former president called on Republicans to block legislation to raise the debt limit, which would have put the nation at risk of default.

Not a single House Republican voted to raise the debt ceiling in October and it fell to McConnell and his leadership team and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to provide the votes to keep the United States fulfilling its debt obligations.  

Trump, who retains a strong grip on the Republican base, slammed McConnell for compromising with Democrats, arguing that GOP lawmakers should have sought to paralyze Biden’s agenda.  

Trump presided over a 35-day government shutdown at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 — the longest in U.S. history — which was triggered by his demand to spend nearly $6 billion to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.  

FiveThirtyEight.com, a political forecasting website, gives Republicans a 7 in 10 chance of winning the House majority and Democrats a 7 in 10 chance of keeping control of the Senate.  

Another Democratic senator who requested anonymity to comment frankly on the likely result of the November election, said if Republicans capture the House, it will yield “a series of investigations” of the Biden administration.  

“Many want to impeach Joe Biden. It would be a recipe for chaos and for gridlock,” the lawmaker said.

Several House conservatives have already introduced articles of impeachment against Biden, alleging “high crimes” related to his handling of border security and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan last year to has management of the coronavirus pandemic.  

Conservatives are signaling they will attempt to block funding for the Internal Revenue Service to hire an estimated 87,000 new employees, which was provided for in the Inflation Reduction Act, which Democrats passed in August under the budget reconciliation process.  

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), a prominent Trump ally, penned an op-ed for Fox News with Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) urging fellow Republicans to “stop caving to Democrats” and warned “under no circumstances should any Republican in the new majorities next year vote to fund the Democrats’ newly passed army of 87,000 new IRS officials to audit and harass Americans.”  

Some Trump allies still haven’t given up hope of repealing the Affordable Care Act, which was one of Trump’s top domestic priorities after taking office in 2017.  

“If we’re going to repeal and replace ObamaCare — I still think we need to fix our health care system — we need to have the plan ahead of time so that once we get in office, we can implement it immediately, not knock around like we did last time and fail,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who is running for reelection, told Breitbart News Radio earlier this year.  

When Republicans took control of the House after the 2010 midterms, then-Republican Study Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), whose influence in the party has grown significantly over the last decade, proposed $2.5 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years. His proposed Spending Reduction Act would have cut nondefense discretionary spending dramatically.  

In April of that year, then-President Obama and then-Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) flirted with a government shutdown before Democrats finally agreed to $39 billion spending cuts in a late-night deal.

The Congress also came perilously close to defaulting on the federal debt in August of 2011, a few months after House Republicans captured the House. Fiscal disaster was averted by a compromise that McConnell and Biden, who was then vice president, helped craft.   

Senate Democrats say they hope such standoffs will be avoided.

“I think we’ve learned that shutdowns really are a lose-lose [proposition,]” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who came to Congress in 2011. “Certainly some House Republicans have learned. Whether all of them or the newly elected ones remains to be seen.” 

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said he’s optimistic about working with House Republicans in the next Congress to pass the annual defense authorization bill. But he expressed concerns that Trump allies in the House will try to undermine the professionalism and political neutrality of the military.  

Trump tried to shake up the Pentagon’s senior ranks and install loyalists into key positions after he lost the 2020 election to Biden, and Reed fears that Trump allies in the House may still have that on their agenda.  

“One of my concerns is less the NDAA, it’s the growing attack on the military as an institution. I just saw where the Arizona candidate for the Senate called for firing all the generals and putting in conservatives. That’s not how we [run] our army. It’s based on competence and experience and the judgment of others, their superior military officers,” Reed said.   

Blake Masters, the Republican candidate for Senate in Arizona, has repeatedly called for the across-the-board firing of generals between August of 2021 and March of this year, according to a recent report by Vice.com.  

Despite the growing Democratic concerns of having to interact with a House Republican majority in 2023, some Democratic senators think they’ll be able to find narrow areas of common ground.  

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) cited bipartisan support for the chips and science bill that passed both chambers this year with bipartisan majorities.  

“Of course there will be areas where we can work together,” he said.  

“They’ll be doing a lot of stuff for show,” he added, anticipating new investigations of the Biden administration. 

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) noted he is working with Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) to restore the pensions of salaried retirees in Delphi who were terminated when General Motors declared bankruptcy in 2009.  

“There will be ways. They’re not all crazy. Some of them are,” he said of House Republicans.  

Brown, however, insisted the political winds are shifting in Democrats’ favor, even in the battle for the House.  

“I think things are changing and these are close races,” he said. “The only thing that would cost us the House is redistricting,” referring to the changes to congressional maps made after the 2020 census.