How the midterms could impact the Russia-Ukraine war

The midterm elections, which are largely being fought over inflation, crime and other domestic issues, could have a huge impact on America’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the likely Speaker in a GOP majority, has talked about how Ukraine would not get a “blank check” from the U.S. with Republicans in control of the House.  

GOP victories by pro-Trump candidates in the House and Senate could also amplify isolationist voices that have questioned the Biden administration’s steady spending in support of Ukraine.  

“I just see a freight train coming, and that is Trump and his operation turning against aid for Ukraine,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told MSNBC last month, underscoring a widely-held concern among Democrats. He added that there could be “a real crisis where the House Republican majority would refuse to support additional aid to Ukraine.” 

Statements from GOP lawmakers such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) have added to the anxiety. During a rally last week, she said a GOP majority would not spend “another penny” on Ukraine.  

To be sure, there are many voices within the GOP that have been highly supportive of Ukraine during the conflict with Russia, including Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).  

Sen. James Risch (Idaho) and Rep. Michael McCaul (Texas), the top Republicans in the foreign affairs committees in each chamber, have been leading voices in support of arming Ukraine, often pushing for Biden to do more.   

Danielle Pletka, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Republican Senate foreign policy staff member, said a majority of Republicans want to back Ukraine against Russia’s aggression.  

“For me, it is about the great battle of the substantive versus the loud,” she said, placing figures like Greene in the latter category. “But these are not people who have any power at all in the House or the Senate.”

But it is also true that McCarthy’s comments reflect skepticism about U.S. economic and military support for Ukraine within his conference. 

And the first test of GOP resistance to additional Ukraine aid could come before the end of this session, with the Biden administration expected to push for another aid package during the lame-duck period before January.

Rep. Jim Banks (Ind.), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, said McCarthy was “exactly right” with his no-blank-check comments.  

“Now Democrats are screaming and saying 'Well, McCarthy says that, we know he's gonna be Speaker of the House. We're gonna pass another $50 billion in the lame duck.' It’s just absurd. It’s insanity,” he told Fox News last month.  

That package is likely to pass with Democrats still in control of the House and Senate no matter the results of the midterms. But the level of GOP opposition could indicate how much of the caucus remains on board with strong support for Kyiv. And Banks’s remarks could find even more support if the U.S. economy tips into a recession in 2023.  

Ukraine is likely to be watching the results of the midterms with some anxiety, though Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the BBC last week that he was confident that both parties would keep up support for Kyiv after meetings with lawmakers.  

“I got a lot of signals that it doesn't matter who will steer … bipartisan support for Ukraine will be continued,” he said. “I believe in that.” 

Andres Kasekamp, a political science professor at the University of Toronto who studies the war, said the GOP is “exploiting” the narrative that America must choose between investing in the U.S. on one hand or helping Ukraine on the other. He accused some in the GOP of abandoning the idea that upholding a rules-based international order is in the U.S. interest.  

“That used to be something that was common sense and in the DNA of the Republican Party,” he said. “Now the sort of populists on the far right of the Republican Party have changed the narrative, and it’s dangerous.” 

So far, Americans remain largely united behind U.S. support for Ukraine, thought recent polls have shown a growing partisan divide. 

Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted in early October found that 81 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of Republicans agreed that the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine, despite nuclear warnings from Russia.  

Wall Street Journal poll this month found that 81 percent of Democrats support additional financial aid for Ukraine, compared to 35 percent of Republicans. And almost half of Republicans said the U.S. is doing too much, up from 6 percent at the start of the war.  

“It plays right into the hands of Putin,” Kasekamp said of skepticism toward Ukraine support. “The Russians from the beginning have tried to dissuade the West from helping the Ukrainians.” 

Former President Trump has said current U.S. policy risks World War III, advocating instead for the U.S. to pressure Ukraine to open peace talks with Russia.  

Last month, he found rare common cause with progressive Democrats in the House, who released and then retracted a letter calling on President Biden to ramp up diplomatic efforts to end the war.  

Tuesday’s election could bolster the ranks of Ukraine skeptics. J.D. Vance, the Trump-backed GOP Senate nominee in Ohio, said earlier this year that he didn’t care about Ukraine, and wanted Biden to focus on the U.S. border.  

Pletka, the former GOP staffer, said she worried that the far right and far left — for different reasons — will decide to capitulate to Putin and pressure Ukraine to take a peace deal.  

“I could absolutely see the appeasement wing of the Democratic Party having a meeting of minds, if you can call them that, with the fortress America-first wing of the Republican party and doing the wrong thing,” she said.  

Despite Ukraine projecting confidence in continued support from both parties, Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Kyiv has cause for concern.  

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy learned the hard way in 2019 how much domestic U.S. politics can affect Ukraine’s reality,” she wrote last week, referring to Trump’s first impeachment trial.  

“He and his team would be right to worry about next week’s polls. Whether or not the GOP will follow through on its threats to scale back Ukraine aid is impossible to predict, but it is definitely a real possibility,” she added. 

Pelosi says she ‘absolutely’ draws parallel between husband’s attack, Jan. 6

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Monday said she “absolutely” draws a line between last month’s attack on her husband, Paul Pelosi, 82, and the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.

The Speaker sat with CNN’s Anderson Cooper for her first sit-down interview since the brutal assault on her husband at their San Francisco home. During that conversation, Cooper quoted President Biden, who, in remarks last week, drew a similarity between the assault on Paul Pelosi, and the Capitol riot.

“The assailant entered the home, asking: 'Where is Nancy? Where is Nancy?' Those were the same words used by the mob when they stormed the United States Capitol on Jan. 6,” Cooper said, quoting Biden.

“That's right,” Pelosi responded.

Asked by Cooper if she draws the same line, Pelosi said “absolutely.”

“There's no question. It's the same -- the same thing, and a copycat or whatever it happens to be, inflamed by the same misrepresentation,” she added.

An alleged assailant broke a glass door and entered the Pelosis’ San Francisco home in the early hours of Oct. 28 and struck Paul Pelosi in the head with a hammer, authorities said. He was transported to a hospital after the attack where he underwent successful surgery to treat a skull fracture and injuries to his right arm and hands, and was released on Thursday.

Authorities and a source, however, have since revealed that the Speaker was the intended target of the incident.

According to the Justice Department’s affidavit, the alleged attacker — who authorities have identified as David DePape, 42 — threatened to hold the Speaker hostage and break her kneecaps.

“DEPAPE stated that he was going to hold Nancy hostage and talk to her. If Nancy were to tell DEPAPE the ‘truth,’ he would let her go, and if she ‘lied,’ he was going to break ‘her kneecaps,’” the affidavit reads.

DePape also told authorities he was “looking for Nancy,” according to the charging documents.

A source briefed on the attack told The Hill shortly after the incident that before the assault occurred, the suspect confronted Paul Pelosi and shouted “where is Nancy? Where is Nancy.”

The phrase led some to draw parallels to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, when rioters who stormed the building demanded to know where the Speaker was, including some who ransacked her office.

In one video of the riot, presented at former President Trump’s impeachment proceedings, a voice asks “where are you, Nancy? We’re looking for you.”

“Nancy. Oh Nancy. Nancy. Where are you, Nancy?” the voice adds.

On Monday, the Speaker told CNN that the attack was “a flame that was fueled by misinformation and all the rest of that, which is most unfortunate. It shouldn't — has no place in our democracy.”

Multiple sources reported after the attack that DePape posted about conspiracy theories online, including ones regarding COVID-19 vaccines and the Capitol riot, and had posted about QAnon.

Later in the interview, Pelosi called for a message to be sent to Republicans to stop its engagement with misinformation.

“I do think that there has to be some message to the Republicans to stop, to stop the disinformation, because that is, without any question, a source of what happened on January 6, and the denial of that, and then the source of what's happening to me now,” she said.

Since the attack on Paul Pelosi, some figures have elevated conspiracy theories casting doubt on the incident, including new Twitter CEO Elon Musk and former President Trump. Asked what she has to say to those individuals, the Speaker responded “it’s really sad for the country.”

“It's really sad for the country that people of that high visibility would separate themselves from the facts and the truth in such a blatant way. It's really sad. And it is traumatizing to those affected by it,” she said.

“They don't care about that, obviously. But it is -- it's destructive to the unity that we want to have in our country. But I don't have anything to say to them. I mean, I — we have nothing — there would be no common ground to have any conversation with them,” she added.

Expected Trump indictment looms over midterm election 

The expected indictment of Donald Trump is looming over the midterm elections as both parties are preparing for a major battle after Election Day if Attorney General Merrick Garland moves forward with an unprecedented prosecution of a former president. 

Republican lawmakers in both the Senate and the House are warning they will put up a staunch defense of Trump if the Department of Justice announces an indictment, which some GOP aides and strategists expect to come in the first 60 to 90 days after Election Day.  

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is already warning that GOP lawmakers could use their power of the purse to reign in the Justice Department if prosecutors indict Trump, which he says would be using law enforcement authority as a political weapon. 

“If Biden treats the Department of Justice as partisan stormtroopers, then Congress is justified in using whatever tools Congress has to stop that abuse of power,” Cruz told The Hill in an interview, when asked about the possibility of holding up Justice Department funding.  

If an indictment of Trump does come before mid-December, Justice Department funding likely would become a political football as congressional leaders work to pass legislation to fund the government for the next year.

Cruz, who has a new book out, “Justice Corrupted: How the Left Weaponized the Legal System,” says any indictment of Trump would serve as more evidence that the Justice Department has let partisan politics dictate its decision-making.  

He believes the Justice Department will announce an indictment of Trump at around the same time it announces charges against Hunter Biden, the president’s son, in an effort to show that it is acting in an even-handed way.  

“The Biden White House wants to indict Donald Trump and they want to put whatever fig leaf in front of them they can to make it appear slightly less partisan,” Cruz said, pointing to what he called a series of “coordinated” leaks to lay the groundwork for an indictment.   

Sensitive to Republican accusations that the Justice Department is driven by partisan politics, senior Justice Department officials have discussed the possibility of appointing a special prosecutor to handle the investigations and any possible indictment of the former president.  

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who would become chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations if he wins reelection and Republicans win control of the Senate, says one of his top priorities will be to investigate what his spokeswoman called the “corruption and politicization of federal law enforcement and our intelligence agencies.” 

Johnson last month proposed setting up a select congressional committee similar to the Senate’s Church Committee established in 1975 to investigate whether the CIA spied on anti-war protesters.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is expected to take over as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee if Republicans capture the House, plans to investigate the Justice Department’s search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home for classified documents.

House Judiciary Committee Republicans on Friday released a 1,000-page report detailing what they called “a rampant culture of unaccountability, manipulation and abuse at the highest level” at the Department of Justice and FBI.  

Reports circulated on Friday that Trump could announce a reelection bid as soon as Nov. 14.

He’d be the instant front-runner in the Republican presidential primary field and Senate GOP aides predict the party’s conservative base would quickly rally to his defense against any criminal charges brought by the Justice Department.  

An early Trump bid could also be interpreted as a warning shot at Justice that any indictment of him as he runs for the White House would be political.

Some think their party has a better chance of retaking the White House with a different standard-bearer. But few of these Republicans are likely to back an indictment.

Former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who served as a counselor to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) leadership team during his time in the Senate, said the Republican backlash to an indictment against Trump will be “massive” and “overwhelming.”  

“Even people like myself who have no use for Donald Trump and think he’s been very unfortunate for our party and that his treatment of our electoral process has undermined our democratic process would find it extremely difficult to tolerate an indictment of a former president,” he said. “There would have to be just incredible grounds of knowing violations that created serious national security problems. I just don’t suspect that’s the case.”

Gregg conceded that “no one knows” outside Trump’s inner orbit, the Justice Department and intelligence agencies just what kind of damage Trump may have caused to national security by keeping classified documents at his estate but warned “indicting a former president is a complete breakdown, in my opinion, of the structure of our government which is built on some level of tolerance of political activity.”  

Gregg said Garland should expect a fight over funding for his department if he indicts Trump and Republicans win control of one or both chambers of Congress.  

“You would have a constitutional issue of immense proportions because the Congress would, I assume, assert its right to discipline the administration or the attorney general through the purse and maybe in other ways,” he said. “We don’t need that as a country.”  

A Senate Republican aide said GOP lawmakers are closely following the moves of the Justice Department, and that an indictment could strengthen Trump politically. “Everyone rallied around him again” after the Mar-a-Lago raid, the aide noted.  

Democrats say Garland will face calls for his resignation if federal prosecutors decide to not prosecute Trump for holding sensitive classified documents at his estate at Mar-a-Lago, which they view as a clear violation of the law and a straightforward case to argue in court.  

“If he ultimately determines to not bring charges against Trump, somebody will call for him to step down,” said Ray Zaccaro, a Democratic strategist and former Senate aide.  

Zaccaro argued that Trump’s possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago broke the law and that the crime happened after he left office. He also noted that while no former U.S. president has been indicted on criminal charges, it has happened in other countries.  

Democratic members of the House Select Jan. 6 committee vented frustration earlier this year over the Department of Justice being slow to pursue contempt charges with members of Trump’s inner circle who refused to cooperate with the panel.  

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) bluntly called on Garland in March to “Do Your Job” after the Justice Department was slow in supporting the subpoenas of the Jan. 6 Committee.  

The backlash will be more intense after Election Day if Garland doesn’t act to enforce the law prohibiting the private possession of highly classified documents, such as a document describing Iran’s missile program, which the FBI seized at Mar-a-Lago.  

Republicans and Democrats who expect the Justice Department to indict Trump believe it will bring charges against the former president for holding classified national security-related documents at Mar-a-Lago, instead of trying to prosecute him for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Any prosecution of Trump related to Jan. 6 would be complicated by the fact that the Senate already tried and acquitted Trump on similar charges during his impeachment trial last year.  

Republican and Democratic aides acknowledge that any prosecution of Trump will plunge the Department of Justice into a political firestorm and make it more difficult for the Biden administration to work with Republicans, who are likely to control the House if not both chambers of Congress next year.  

“If the Department of Justice does it, it will be a maelstrom. They’re obviously well aware of that but have to balance it with their duty to uphold and administer the law. It’s pretty clear that Merrick Garland is not relishing this,” said a Senate Democratic aide who requested anonymity to discuss Trump’s possible indictment, a sensitive topic on Capitol Hill.  

The aide said it’s clear that Trump violated the law but cautioned that doesn’t necessarily mean Garland will bring an indictment.  

If the attorney general fails to act, “there are going to be some Democrats who are going to complain vociferously,” the source said, but acknowledged “there are a lot of Democrats who recognize that Garland’s got no good options here” because he will come under strong criticism no matter what he decides to do.  

“Whatever happens on Tuesday will inform his decision but not make it easier,” the aide said, making reference to Election Day, which will be a referendum on Biden but also Trump, whom Democrats have tried to tie to Senate and House GOP candidates.   

Emily Brooks contributed to this report. 

Oz takes risk vs. Fetterman with Trump rally

Former President Trump is seeking to put his imprint on the Pennsylvania Senate race with a rally in Latrobe on Saturday with Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, a risky move given Oz’s efforts to distance himself from Trump’s debunked election fraud claims.

Throughout the 2022 election cycle, Democrats have tried to make the battle for the Senate a referendum on Trump, even though he left office nearly two years ago and won’t be on the ballot.

Oz has distanced himself from Trump’s claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election and has tried to project a moderate image in his race against Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), a stark contrast with gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano (R), an election denier who will also share the state with Trump Saturday.

Some Republican strategists are questioning the wisdom of Oz appearing on stage with Trump and Mastriano, who is trailing by double digits in the gubernatorial race, so soon before Election Day.

One Senate Republican adviser said appearing with Trump and Mastriano is “probably not” a good idea given Trump’s penchant for controversy and his negative approval rating in the state, but lamented: “What are you going to do?”

“I don’t think you have much of a choice in the matter because we have an issue with Republican base voters,” the strategist said, noting that “Trump gave Oz a lot of credibility” by endorsing him in the primary and now Oz has to pay him back.

Retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R), whose seat Oz is running for, refused in 2016 to say whether he would even vote for Trump until about an hour before the polls closed that year.

Toomey was also one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump on the impeachment charge of inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Democrats have also tried hard to tie Oz to Mastriano since last week’s debate when Oz, a celebrity doctor, said that he wanted women, doctors and local political leaders to “put the best ideas forward” on setting rules for abortion.

The Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), immediately unveiled an ad declaring that Oz “thinks abortion decisions belong to politicians like Doug Mastriano,” flashing photos of Oz and Mastriano, a state senator, side by side.

Fetterman told Pittsburgh’s NPR station in an interview aired Wednesday that he “would never stand on … the stage with someone like Doug Mastriano” and emphasized his support for passing a federal law to codify Roe v. Wade, which the Supreme Court struck down in June.

A spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) said the weekend rally with Trump and Mastriano encapsulates why Oz is a bad choice to represent Pennsylvania in the Senate.

“Mehmet Oz will be on stage with Doug Mastriano — the type of extreme ‘local political leader’ who has no business making health care decisions for Pennsylvania women,” said Patrick Burgwinkle of the DSCC.

A Washington-based Democratic strategist said “it’s risky” for Oz to get on stage with Trump and Mastriano, given Trump’s penchant for turning off suburban female voters.

“Trump is just a very polarizing figure and sends people to their corners and this is a state that President Biden won, so you’d be hard-pressed to argue that appearing with the candidate that lost your state two years ago … is an effective way to close out” the race, the strategist said. “You can’t have your rally in Pittsburgh and not have the Philadelphia suburbs aware of what’s going on.”

A USA Today-Suffolk University poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30 found that Trump has a 37 percent favorable rating and a 55 percent unfavorable rating in the state. Biden’s job approval rating stood at 38 percent and his disapproval rating stood at 51 percent in the poll.

The same poll found Fetterman leading Oz by just 2 points in the Senate race, down from a 6-point spread a few weeks ago.

Biden will attend a rally with Fetterman and former President Obama in Philadelphia Saturday. Obama will campaign for Fetterman earlier in the day in Pittsburgh.

Trump’s unscripted speaking style at campaign rallies poses another risk for Oz, who has tried to distance himself from the former president’s unfounded claims of widespread fraud in Pennsylvania in 2020.

Oz said last month that he would not have objected to the certification of Biden’s victory had he been a senator in January of 2021.

There’s a good chance, however, that Trump on Saturday will reprise his claim that the 2020 election results in Pennsylvania were marred by widespread fraud, an unsubstantiated claim that Toomey, the retiring Republican incumbent, dismissed as “very disturbing” and lacking evidence.

Trump on Tuesday raised fresh doubt about whether this year’s elections in Pennsylvania would be fair.

He posted an article from the site Just the News reporting that the Pennsylvania Department of State had sent out more than 240,000 mail-in ballots without verifying voter identities.

“Here we go again! Rigged election!” he wrote.

That has Republican strategists in Washington worried about a reprise of what happened in the Georgia Senate runoff elections in January of 2021, when Republican voter turnout dropped off after Trump claimed the mail-in balloting process was rife with fraud.

More than 750,000 Georgia voters who cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election did not vote in the Senate runoff races two months later, according to an analysis by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won both races.

A Senate Republican aide warned that Trump could depress GOP turnout in Pennsylvania by making new claims of brewing election fraud.

“There’s no doubt that he hurt there,” the aide said of Trump’s impact on the failed reelection bids of then-Sens. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) in 2021.

However, Brian Nutt, a Republican strategist based in Harrisburg, Pa., argued that Tuesday’s race will be a referendum on Biden’s record, not Trump’s claim of election fraud.

“I wouldn’t know what the Oz campaign is thinking or looking at in that regard,” he said of Saturday’s rally in Latrobe. “It’s pretty hard for the Democrats or anyone to make it a referendum on Donald Trump when we have inflation at a 40-year high, we have $4 and $5 gasoline."

“It’s very hard to make this a referendum about Donald Trump when the country is in a crisis financially,” he said.

Nutt said Oz may be motivated to hold a rally with Trump “to bring even more [Republican] voters home” to his campaign.

Oz, who narrowly won the GOP primary over hedge fund CEO David McCormick, had trouble consolidating GOP voters behind his campaign over the summer.

But a new poll shows that more Republican voters have rallied to Oz over the last few weeks.

The Muhlenberg College-Morning Call poll of 460 likely voters conducted from Oct. 24 to Oct. 28 showed that 87 percent of Republican voters say they support Oz, up from the 81 percent of GOP voters who said they did in September.

What we know about suspected Paul Pelosi attacker  

The man who allegedly attacked Paul Pelosi on Friday reportedly had an active online presence in which he posted QAnon conspiracy theories and was previously a pro-nudity activist.

San Francisco police have identified the suspect as 42-year-old David DePape, who was booked on several charges, including attempted homicide, elder abuse, aggravated battery with serious bodily injury, and threatening a public official or family member. 

DePape allegedly attacked 82-year-old Paul Pelosi, the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), with a hammer after repeatedly asking, "Where is Nancy?"

Details that have emerged of the suspected attacker since Friday show that he was active in promoting conspiracy theories online and "very consumed by darkness."

Here's what else we know about DePape.

Conspiracy theories and antisemitism

DePape had a complicated political presence online, making posts that questioned the 2020 election outcome and promoted QAnon conspiracy theories. 

After moving to California from British Columbia, DePape became known in Berkeley as a pro-nudity activist, protesting against rules requiring people to be clothed in public, according to The Associated Press.  

He was also a “hemp jewelry maker” connected to pro-nudity activist Gypsy Taub, who pushed conspiracy theories about the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, according to the San Francisco Chronicle

Taub's daughter, who said DePape helped raise her until she was 13, wrote on her blog, "There is some part of him that is a good person even though he has been very consumed by darkness."

DePape has also been tied to a number of social media accounts and blogs sharing far-right conspiracy theories. 

Two blogs authored by a “daviddepape” included recent posts with antisemitic content and claims of election fraud as well as a video of Nancy Pelosi at one of former President Trump’s impeachment proceedings, according to CNN

In some posts, the author defended former President Trump and the rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, who has come under criticism for antisemitic comments.

In one post from last month, an author under DePape's name wrote that journalists who denied the former president's fraud claims about the 2020 presidential election “should be dragged straight out into the street and shot,” according to the AP.

Echoes of Jan. 6 Capitol riot

Police reportedly arrived at the scene to find Paul Pelosi and DePape struggling with a hammer — and before officers could tackle and disarm DePape, he allegedly took control of the hammer and assaulted Paul Pelosi with it. 

Both Paul Pelosi and DePape were then transported to a local hospital. There, Paul Pelosi underwent surgery for a skull fracture and other significant injuries to his arm and hands, according to the Speaker’s spokesperson. 

The suspect reportedly entered the Pelosis’ San Francisco home on Friday in search of the Speaker, who was in Washington, D.C., at the time, and shouted, “Where is Nancy? Where is Nancy?”  

The question is reminiscent of chants heard during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol as some rioters searched the halls for the Speaker. One rioter was sentenced to 60 days behind bars earlier this year for threatening to shoot Nancy Pelosi “in the friggin’ brain” during the insurrection. 

DePape also reportedly brought zip ties with him when he entered the Pelosis’ home, another move seen from some Jan. 6 rioters who were spotted carrying zip ties into the Capitol. 

The San Francisco District Attorney has said multiple felony charges will be brought against DePape on Monday, with an arraignment expected Tuesday.

Five investigations House Republicans are plotting if they win majority

From Hunter Biden to alleged politicization in the Department of Justice and beyond, House Republicans have been preparing for months to unleash a flood of investigatory actions and findings if they win a majority in the Nov. 8 midterm election.

Investigations would be a major tool for the House GOP, as many top policy priorities would be unlikely to make it past a filibuster in the Senate or be signed by President Biden. 

With the majority also comes the ability to dictate the focus of hearings and compel testimony and documents, including some that they may have already requested but not received, through subpoenas. That could put pressure on the Biden administration. 

The House GOP’s "Commitment to America" midterm policy and messaging plan boasts that House Republicans have already sent more than 500 requests for information and documents.

Hunter Biden and Biden family business activities

President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden leave Holy Spirit Catholic Church in Johns Island, S.C., after attending a Mass, Saturday, Aug. 13, 2022. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Rep. James Comer (Ky.), the top Republican on the House Oversight and Reform Committee in line to be chair of the panel, has promised hearings and probes into the Biden family’s overseas business activities.

Republicans on the committee have a copy of Hunter Biden’s laptop hard drive first revealed shortly before the 2020 election, but say that salacious video and photos in the files are not the focus.

“The reason we’re investigating Hunter Biden is because we believe he's compromised Joe Biden,” Comer told reporters in September.

A top priority for Republicans on the Oversight panel is gaining access to the Treasury Department’s suspicious activity reports from U.S. banks relating to foreign business deals from Hunter Biden and other Biden associates. Republicans have said that the Treasury Department has refused to provide the reports, and alleged that Biden family members have prompted at least 150 suspicious activity reports.

“I think that’ll go a long way towards helping us be able to uncover some questions that the American people have about the ethics, and whether or not the Biden administration is truly compromised by Hunter’s shady business dealings,” Comer said.

Alleged politicization in the Department of Justice

Mar-a-Lago

An aerial view of President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate Aug. 10, 2022, in Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)

Republican trust in federal law enforcement agencies plummeted alongside the rise of former President Trump and special counsel Robert Meuller’s investigation into him, and the sense among the GOP that the DOJ and FBI are biased against conservatives has only grown since that time.

One top topic for a GOP House will be the DOJ’s decision to search Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in August and seize classified materials.

Republicans have requested documents from the National Archives and the FBI related to the decision to refer the matter of missing documents to the FBI and to execute the search warrant. After the raid, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) warned Attorney General Merrick Garland to “preserve your documents and clear your calendar.”

GOP interest in the DOJ extends beyond Trump, though. 

“The No. 1 thing is this weaponization of the DOJ against the American people,” House Judiciary Committee ranking member Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is likely to chair the committee in a GOP majority, said at the House GOP’s platform rollout event in September.

Jordan has said that his office has received information from more than a dozen whistleblowers who came forward with allegations of FBI bias against conservatives, including the agency retaliating against employees with conservative views.

In a major win for the House GOP, former FBI official Jill Sanborn will sit for a transcribed interview with the House Judiciary Committee on Dec. 2. Jordan and Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) sought testimony from Sanborn in relation to whistleblower claims that the FBI pressured agents to improperly reclassify cases as “domestic violent extremism.”

COVID-19 origins and policies

A health care worker in Wuhan, China during the initial COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. (Getty)

The Democratic-controlled House created a select Oversight subcommittee on the coronavirus in 2020, and Republicans have complained that the committee did not hold hearings on the origin of the virus.

report from Republicans on the select subcommittee released Wednesday pledged to keep investigating U.S. dollars that flowed to research on coronaviruses at a Wuhan, China, lab, officials who sought to squash the lab leak hypothesis, and state policies that pushed COVID-positive patients into nursing homes.

Republicans from the subcommittee hosted an expert forum, during which panelists said they thought evidence pointed to the virus originating in the Wuhan lab. 

Studies released this year point to natural origins of the virus. The U.S. intelligence community has said the virus was not created as a bioweapon.

Anthony Fauci, the chief medical adviser to President Biden who has spent decades as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, plans to step down from his government positions in December. But Republicans say that will not stop them from calling Fauci to appear before Congress to talk about the origins of the virus.

Afghanistan withdrawal

In this Aug. 21, 2021, file photo provided by the U.S. Marines, U.S. Marines with Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force provide assistance at an evacuation checkpoint during at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. (Staff Sgt. Victor Mancilla/U.S. Marine Corps via AP)

GOP leaders have pledged to hold more hearings on the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 that led to the deaths of 13 service members in a bombing and the Taliban taking control of the country, saying that unanswered questions remain.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Republicans released an “interim report” on the withdrawal in August, finding that the State Department “took very few substantive steps” to prepare for the consequences in the months ahead of the August withdrawal.

The report said that the State Department failed to provide numerous materials relating to the withdrawal and forecasted the intention to use subpoena power to retrieve those documents as well as have officials sit for transcribed interviews. 

Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) on Tuesday also sent a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin requesting information on how the Department of Defense has “secured, archived, and standardized operational data and intelligence” from Afghanistan. In an interview with The Hill, Waltz said that data is necessary in case the U.S. has to go back into Afghanistan to counter terror threats.

Handling of U.S.-Mexico border

Multiple Republican members of Congress have already introduced articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as as result of the Biden administration's border policies. (Getty)

The surge of migrants at the southern border and the Biden administration’s policies that allow the migrants into the country are top campaign issues for Republicans in the midterms and would be a sharp focus in a GOP House.

“We will give [Homeland Security] Secretary [Alejandro] Mayorkas a reserved parking spot, he will be testifying so much about this,” House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said at Republicans’ "Commitment to America" rollout event in September.

Deaths of migrants at the border, the flow of illegal drugs like fentanyl into the U.S., and the Department of Homeland Security's ending of the “Remain in Mexico” policy for asylum-seekers are other likely topics of inquiry. A letter from Republicans in April accused Mayorkas of having “disregard for the enforcement of U.S. immigration laws.”

Multiple Republicans members have introduced articles of impeachment against Mayorkas in the current Congress. McCarthy has declined to commit to impeachment of any Biden Cabinet member, saying he will not support a political impeachment, but opened the door to impeaching Mayorkas in an April stop near the U.S.-Mexico border.

“This is his moment in time to do his job. But at any time if someone is derelict in their job, there is always the option of impeaching somebody,” McCarthy said at the time.

Updated 12:47 p.m.

This pro-impeachment California Republican is facing a tough battle

Rep. David Valadao (Calif.) is fighting for his political life in an election that will determine whether one of the last remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump sees another term.  

Valadao is one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, and one of two who sought reelection and prevailed in their primary.

He’s now facing Democrat Rudy Salas, a state lawmaker who placed first in California’s open primary in June by close to 20 percentage points. The race is rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.

Valadao, who was first elected to the House in 2012 before losing the seat in 2018 and winning it back in 2020, narrowly beat two GOP challengers in a primary this summer.

While he didn’t face a Trump-backed challenger, his impeachment vote complicated his primary. 

“I think it definitely made his primary race require more effort maybe than normal,” said Lisa Bryant, chairwoman of the department of political science at California State University, Fresno.

In a highly controversial move that brought criticism from some Democratic lawmakers, Democratic groups ran ads during Valadao’s primary that sought to elevate Trump-aligned GOP candidate Chris Mathys.

The House Majority PAC, which is aligned with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), released an ad saying that “David Valadao claims he’s Republican, yet David Valadao voted to impeach President Trump.” It called Mathys a “true conservative” and “100 percent pro-Trump.”

Democrats have utilized similar tactics in other GOP primaries, banking on the idea that propping up more hard-line conservatives in primaries will give them easier opponents to beat in general elections, despite complaints from some members.

“Many of us are facing death threats over our efforts to tell the truth about Jan. 6,” Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) told Politico in a summer interview. “To have people boosting candidates telling the very kinds of lies that caused Jan. 6 and continues to put our democracy in danger, is just mind-blowing.”

The House Majority PAC and other groups have been unapologetic about the strategy.

“David Valadao is an out-of-touch extremist who voted against a law to prevent gas price gouging and would eagerly help Kevin McCarthy implement a national abortion ban. That’s why House Majority PAC is doing whatever it takes to elect Rudy Salas and flip this seat blue in November,” House Majority PAC Communications Director C.J. Warnke told The Hill in a statement on Monday. 

Asked about the Democratic effort, Salas campaign manager Abby Olmstead told The Hill in an email that “Rudy is focused on his own campaign and not on what outside groups are doing.”

It’s possible the Democratic effort could backfire in helping Valadao, which has sought to use his impeachment vote to his benefit.

“It means different things to different voters certainly,” Valadao campaign senior adviser Robert Jones told The Hill. “Most importantly, and I think above all else, regardless of how you view it on a partisan basis, it’s a demonstration of his independence.”

“David has not been afraid to stand up to his party through his time in Congress, and this is sort of the ultimate demonstration of that. And so I think most voters see it as that he’s going to do what he thinks is right, not what any party thinks is right. That’s what people in the district I think want,” Jones added.

Democrats complimentary of Valadao’s vote to impeach Trump say voters should consider the rest of his record.

“I think that just because he voted for Trump’s impeachment does not take away the fact that the policies and agenda that he’d subscribed to is much reflective of the Trump agenda. And every member of Congress — Democrat and Republican — should be [wanting] to hold the executive branch accountable. That’s part of their job,” said Antjuan Seawright, senior adviser for the House Democrats’ campaign arm.

Still, in a sign that being seen as independent of party could resonate with voters in the district, Salas is also touting a willingness to buck his party.

One ad touts how he was the only Democrat in the state Assembly to vote in 2017 against a transportation plan that would have raised gas taxes. He later lost a committee chairmanship following the vote.

Los Angeles-based Democratic strategist Mike Trujillo said the Central Valley’s leanings are toward candidates who are more toward the center.

“Democrats and Republicans in the Central Valley have a very moderate — they both have a very moderate DNA, right? Valadao voted for impeachment. Salas voted against his party against a gas tax. That’s consistent across the Central Valley because it’s a very centrist-oriented part of the state,” he added.

The race is also seen as competitive, given that the newly drawn 22nd Congressional District leans more favorably toward Democrats.

The California news outlet CalMatters notes that 43.4 percent of residents in the district are registered Democrats, compared to 26 percent who are registered as Republicans and 22.6 percent who have no party preference.  

The data website FiveThirtyEight gives the district a partisan lean of plus 10 points Democrat, but Salas is anticipating a tight campaign.

“We know this is gonna be a tough race, and we’ve seen that play out. But we also have such a fantastic candidate,” Olmstead said.

Republicans who backed Trump’s impeachment are an endangered species in the House.

Eight pro-impeachment Republicans — including Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.), once the third-ranking House Republican — either lost their primaries to Trump-backed challengers or opted against running for reelection this cycle. Aside from Valadao, the only other pro-impeachment GOP lawmaker who may sit in the next Congress is Rep. Dan Newhouse (Wash.).

In a nod to the competitiveness of the House seat and the dwindling number of pro-impeachment Republicans left, former Vice President Mike Pence, who rebuffed efforts to overturn the 2020 election, campaigned earlier this week for Valadao in Fresno, Calif.

Republican strategist Doug Heye, who previously served as communications director of the Republican National Committee, said the impeachment vote allows Valadao “to talk to independent voters in a way, and even some soft Democrats, in a way that most Republicans wouldn’t be able to.”

Greene: If McCarthy wants to make base happy, he’ll ‘give me a lot of power’

Firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) warned that the Republican base would be “very unhappy” if House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) does not give her more power if Republicans take control of the chamber next year.

In a New York Times Magazine profile on Monday examining Greene’s rise in influence and future, the Georgia congresswoman indicated that McCarthy would have to adopt her “a lot more aggressive” approach toward President Biden, whom she has introduced multiple articles of impeachment against.

“I think that to be the best Speaker of the House and to please the base, he’s going to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway,” Greene said. “And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be very unhappy about it. I think that’s the best way to read that. And that’s not in any way a threat at all. I just think that’s reality.”

McCarthy, who is aiming to become Speaker in a House majority, has given the confrontational right flank of the House GOP a seat at the table as he aims to shore up support. Greene was in attendance at a House GOP “Commitment to America” midterm policy and platform rollout event in Pennsylvania last month.

Greene was stripped of her committee assignments soon after being sworn into office as punishment for her posts about conspiracy theories and liking a Facebook comment that called for the assassination of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). 

McCarthy has pledged to restore Greene’s committee assignments, suggesting at one point that she could have even “better committees” than the ones she was assigned to before – the Education and Labor and Budget committees.

“I would like to be on Oversight,” Greene told the New York Times Magazine. “I would also like to be on Judiciary. I think both of those I’d be good on.”

Republicans on both the House Oversight and Reform and House Judiciary committees have been preparing to bring a spotlight to the business activities of Biden’s son Hunter Biden’s business activities and social media suppression of an election-season 2020 New York Post story revealing the contents of his laptop.

The committees have helped to skyrocket Republican members to stardom in the past.

“I completely deserve it. I’ve been treated like [expletive]. I have been treated like garbage,” Greene said.

Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), ranking member on the House Oversight and Reform Committee who is in line for the chairmanship in a GOP majority, indicated that he would welcome Greene to his committee.

“If Americans entrust Republicans with the majority next Congress, we look forward to the Steering Committee adding new GOP members to the committee like Rep. Greene with energy and a strong interest in partnering with us in our efforts to rein in the unaccountable Swamp and to hold the Biden Administration accountable for its many self-inflicted crises that it has unleashed on the American people,” Comer told New York Times Magazine.

Utah emerges as wild card in battle for the Senate

The Utah Senate race between conservative Republican Sen. Mike Lee and Independent Evan McMullin has emerged as a potential wild card in the battle for the Senate.

Recent polls show the race is close, with McMullin trailing Lee by only a few points in a state where Republican victories are usually all but guaranteed.

Lee, a conservative who supported then-President Trump’s effort to challenge the 2020 election results on Jan. 6, is a star among many members of Utah’s Republican base, but his unpopularity among moderates and Democrats has driven his approval rating down to the low 40s.  

“This is within the margin of error,” said Richard Davis, an emeritus professor of political science at Brigham Young University, citing recent polls by Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics. “It could go either way. It’s basically neck and neck.”  

If McMullin manages to pull off an upset, his pledge to not caucus with either Democrats or Republicans could throw the battle for control of the Senate into turmoil.

If Republicans wind up keeping retiring Sen. Pat Toomey’s (R) Pennsylvania seat in GOP hands and defeating the Democratic incumbent in Nevada or Georgia, McMullin could still keep the Senate under Democratic control by voting for Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) as majority leader.

Conversely, he could swing it to Republicans by affiliating with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) or simply not affiliating with either party, which would give Republicans a 50-to-49 seat majority with one unaffiliated senator in the chamber.  

“He’s in the catbird seat because as an Independent both sides are going to want to give him something” to get his vote for determining the Senate majority in an evenly split chamber, Davis said.  

“I can’t imagine that he’s going to caucus with the Republicans, but he had to say that he wasn’t going to caucus with the Democrats to win over the very people he’s trying to win over right now,” Davis said of the moderate Republicans who aren’t thrilled about voting for Lee but wouldn’t consider voting for a Democrat, either. 

“He could be in an extremely powerful situation if he gets to determine which way the Senate is organized, which party gets the majority,” he added. “I think what he’s going to do is negotiate on Utah’s behalf, get things for Utah out of this.”  

The latest Deseret-Hinckley poll shows Lee leading McMullin by four points, 41 percent to 37 percent, with 12 percent of Utah voters undecided.  

The poll found that 40 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Lee, while 47 percent had an unfavorable view.  

Lee’s allies, however, argue that the Deseret poll put too much weight on registered instead of likely voters, skewing the results in favor of McMullin.  

Lee’s allies think it’s more likely that the incumbent wins by a healthy margin of 10 or more points.  

The poll, however, found the numbers stay largely the same among likely voters and the race tightens among those who say they will definitely vote, with Lee leading McMullin 42-40 percent.  

“Mike Lee is leading this race. Every reliable poll shows Sen. Lee with a significant lead and our internal polling gives us even greater confidence in the strong support he has across the state,” said Matt Lusty, an adviser to the Lee campaign.  

Utah Democrats helped McMullin significantly by declining to endorse one of their own members and instead backing McMullin at their state convention in April. The Deseret poll found 68 percent of Democrats backing McMullin, and he leads with unaffiliated voters as well.

Davis said if McMullin can win over more Republican moderates who see themselves more in the same camp as Utah’s centrist Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, who voted twice to convict Trump on impeachment charges, he could wind up winning.  

McMullin ran as an Independent for president in 2016 and turned in his best performance in Utah, where he won 21 percent of the vote in the general election — trailing the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by only 6 points. Trump carried the state with 45 percent of the vote. 

Boyd Matheson, a prominent Utah radio host who formerly served as Lee’s chief of staff, said McMullin would find himself under tremendous pressure to pick a side if he manages to defy the odds and win election to an evenly divided Senate.  

The Senate’s two current Independents — Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Angus King (Maine) — both caucus with Democrats. Neither, however, had to defeat a sitting senator to win their seats.

“He would be under immense pressure from both Democrats and Republicans and picking a side at this point matters because if you look at someone like a [Sen.] Joe Manchin [D-W.Va.], the reason Manchin has power because he’s in the room,” Matheson said.  

He said if McMullin refuses to caucus with either party, he won’t have any way to sit on a committee without getting a special deal from one of the party leaders.  

“That’s going to be the challenge for McMullin. If he wins, can he have any influence without any committee assignment without being in the Republican lunch or the Democratic caucus lunch?” he said.  

The race was largely overlooked until Lee went on Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s show Tuesday to plead for Romney’s endorsement, a surprising move since Romney made clear early in the race that he would stay neutral.  

“As soon as Mitt Romney is ready to, I will eagerly accept his endorsement,” Lee pleaded on Carlson’s show. “Evan McMullin is raising millions of dollars off Act Blue, the Democratic donor database based on this idea that he’s going to defeat me and help perpetuate the Democratic majority.”  

“I’ve asked him, I’m asking him right here again tonight right now,” Lee said. “Please get on board. Help me win reelection.”  

Senate aides say Lee’s pleas for help from Romney were especially surprising given that they have clashed repeatedly this Congress, starting with Lee’s strong support for Trump’s effort to challenge the 2020 election results through the courts.  

Romney, by contrast, was the only Senate Republican to vote to convict Trump after both of his impeachment trials.  

The two Utah senators have also clashed over major policy differences. Lee voted against the three major bipartisan initiatives that Romney supported during President Biden’s term: a $1 trillion infrastructure bill; legislation addressing gun violence after the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas; and a $280 billion bill to support the domestic semiconductor industry.  

But Lee and Romney have also worked together on bills to help constituents in Utah, such as the bill they introduced in April to address housing supply and affordability by allowing parcels of federal land to be purchased at a reduced price.  

And they pool their staff to work jointly on constituents’ special cases.  

Even so, Romney and Lee are hardly considered friends.  

Davis, the emeritus political scientist, said Romney is “unlikely” to change his mind and endorse Lee “because I don’t think these two get along well.”  

“He can’t endorse McMullin because that would probably be a step too far to do that but by not endorsing [Lee] he’s certainly sending a message,” he added of Romney.  

Adding to the surreal moment on Carlson’s show, Trump waded into the race by releasing a statement praising Lee as an “outstanding senator” and criticizing Romney harshly for not endorsing his home-state colleague — bringing fresh attention to the possibility that Lee, who won reelection in a landslide six years ago, might be in trouble.  

Trump declared that Romney’s decision to stay neutral in the race “has abused” Lee “in an unprecedented way.”  

Lusty, Lee’s campaign adviser, said: “Sen. Lee sees it as important for all members of the party to stand together and he welcomes the public endorsement of all of his Senate GOP colleagues, including Sen. Romney.”  

But Romney’s defenders are quick to note that Lee refused to endorse late Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) when he ran for reelection in 2012 and Lee’s chief of staff at the time, Spencer Stokes, predicted that Hatch would lose because he had already spent far too much time in Washington.

Fundraising data collected by the Federal Election Commission as of Oct. 14 showed that Lee had raised $7.9 million for his reelection while McMullin had raised $3.2 million. 

Outside interest groups are also pouring money into the race.  

The conservative Club for Growth, a group long allied with Lee, has already spent $2.2 million on the Utah Senate race and has vowed to pour more money into the race, according to The Salt Lake Tribune.  

On the other side, the Put Utah First PAC has spent more than $2.5 million to help McMullin. 

Trump says Mike Lee ‘abused’ by Romney

Former President Trump slammed Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) on Wednesday, accusing him of "abusing" his Utah colleague Sen. Mike Lee (R) following news that Romney has refrained from issuing an endorsement in Lee's reelection campaign.

"Mike Lee is an outstanding Senator who has been abused, in an unprecedented way, by a fellow Republican Senator from his own State, something which rarely has happened in political History," Trump said in a statement issued through his Save America PAC.

"Such an event would only be understandable if Mike did not perform his duties as a United States Senator, but he has, and he has performed them well," the former president continued.

Lee, who is in a tight race with Independent challenger Evan McMullin, appealed to Romney on Tuesday evening during a conversation with Fox News host Tucker Carlson, asking his colleague to help him win.

“Well, I’ve asked him. I’m asking him right here, again, tonight, right now. Mitt, if you’d like to protect the Republican majority, give us any chance of seizing the Republican majority, once again, getting it away from the Democrats, who are facilitating this massive spending spree in a massive inflationary binge, please get on board,” Lee said.

In his appeal, Lee mentioned that the contest between himself and McMullin, a former CIA officer, was getting tighter. According to nonpartisan handicapper Cook Political Report, the race is rated "likely Republican." However, recent polling shows that McMullin is closing the gap.

For his part, Romney said he's refrained from making an endorsement because he is friends with both Lee and McMullin, who left the Republican party in 2016 after Trump won the party's presidential nomination, and ran against him as an Independent.

“I’ve worked with Mike a lot and appreciate the work we do together. But both are good friends, and I’m going to stay out,” Romney said in a statement to The Hill.

Romney also caught Trump's ire after he voted to convict the former president of one count during his first impeachment trial and has been a critic of the Trump administration in the past. Trump has called Romney a "super RINO," or "Republican in name only."

On Wednesday, Trump said that McMullin did not represent the values of Utah, "but neither, as you will see in two years, does Mitt Romney, who refuses to endorse his fellow Republican Senator, Mike Lee."

"Mike Lee is outstanding and has my Complete and Total Endorsement. Mitt Romney and Evan McMuffin can count on the fact that they will never have my Endorsement!," he concluded.