House Republicans continue wasting time instead of governing

The Republican House of Representatives is spinning its wheels Thursday over minor legislation that’s going nowhere, including yet another racist bill to deny housing for immigrants on federal lands. House Speaker Mike Johnson is instead focused on fundraising with big-money people in Washington, D.C., and New York. The fundraising is necessary for House Republicans since it’s been lagging since they toppled former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, their money juggernaut.

That fundraising Johnson's doing in New York includes ”the annual Bright Lights on Broadway fundraiser for the National Republican Congressional Committee, [and] … two events for the New York delegation and three receptions for embattled New York Republicans in their districts: freshman Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito and Mike Lawler,” according to The Washington Post. That might be why some of those particular Republicans representing districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 are just fine with moving ahead on an historically specious impeachment inquiry. Because they are moving fast on impeachment.

While Republicans don’t have any evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors, they’ve got a new website to track all the stuff they’ve made up in the various committees. And they’re talking about moving on it formally before the Christmas break. They might not have enough Republican votes to authorize it, but so far that doesn’t seem to be slowing them down.

Unfortunately for them, the House GOP is also having to figure out how to deal with Rep. George Santos, who is almost certainly going to be expelled in a vote Friday, after debate Thursday. Johnson doesn’t want to have this vote, but Santos has given his colleagues no choice. He refuses to leave of his own volition and he’s refusing as messily as possible.

Over on the Senate side Thursday, the Judiciary Committee is scheduled to vote on advancing a handful of judicial nominees and on issuing subpoenas to Leonard Leo and Harlan Crow, the fixer and the mega-donor, respectively, who are tied up with the corruption scandals surrounding Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. That committee is where all the worst people in the GOP Senate have congregated, and they were in full, obnoxious form Thursday to fight those subpoenas and stand up for conservative corruption, including bringing 177 amendments.

Before they could even get to the subpoenas, Republicans tried to shout down Chairman Dick Durbin, a Democrat of Illinois, when he tried to advance the first nominee. All of the nominees have had hearings and debate, giving every senator two previous chances to talk about the nominees. Durbin pointed this out as he tried to limit debate. The performative outrage then commenced.

“Mr. Chairman, you just destroyed one of the most important committees in the United States Senate,” Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn yelled. “Congratulations on destroying the United States Senate Judiciary Committee.” Tennessee’s dimmest Senate bulb, Marsha Blackburn, shouted, “You want us to shut up?” Arkansas’ Tom Cotton jumped in with, “I guess Durbin isn’t going to allow women to speak, I thought that was sacrosanct in your party.”

In other words, it’s business as usual for congressional Republicans.

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Cartoon: Santos Claus

House Republican fundraising takes a dive under MAGA Mike's leadership, god bless him

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There has been a ton of coverage in recent weeks over a streak of poor 2024 polling for Democrats and Target Smart’s Tom Bonier joins us to help us separate the wheat from the chaff. We talk about what to take from these polls and how to balance them against the much more positive election results we’ve seen this year. We also discuss how early voting data continues to evolve and how Sen. Sherrod Brown’s campaign will use Ohio’s recent abortion and marijuana referendums to find new persuadable voters next year.

McCarthy privately claims he told Trump ‘F**k you’ after McCarthy’s ouster

Rep. Kevin McCarthy and Donald Trump have a long history of having each other’s backs to the extent that two such soulless, transactional people ever do. But that broke down when Trump didn’t come to McCarthy’s aid as he was on the way to being voted out as speaker of the House, the first speaker ever ousted in that way. Rep. Matt Gaetz, who initiated the motion to vacate the chair, even publicly claimed that Trump supported his move against McCarthy. McCarthy had reason to be frustrated and angry—and The Washington Post reports that McCarthy claims he vented that frustration to Trump directly. (Emphasis on McCarthy claims.)

McCarthy and Trump reportedly had a call weeks after McCarthy’s ouster in which Trump made clear that he had made an active decision not to bail McCarthy out, because he was angry that McCarthy hadn’t gotten Trump’s two impeachments expunged and hadn’t endorsed him yet for the 2024 Republican presidential primary, sources told the Post:

“F--- you,” McCarthy claimed to have then told Trump, when he rehashed the call later to other people in two separate conversations, according to the people. A spokesperson for McCarthy said that he did not swear at the former president and that they have a good relationship. A spokesperson for Trump declined to comment.

It is totally believable that Trump’s ego is so fragile he let McCarthy twist in the wind over impeachments not being expunged and an endorsement that McCarthy did plan to make later. It is less believable—though not entirely unbelievable—that McCarthy said “Fuck you” to Trump, but totally typical that McCarthy was reportedly saying one thing in multiple private conversations and then having a spokesperson deny it.

McCarthy is never the most reliable source on his own interactions with Trump. Everything he says is bound up in his own ambition and reputation management, and his dramatic stories often change. For instance, following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler described a phone call between McCarthy and Trump during the attack in which McCarthy pleaded with Trump to call off the mob, only to be told, “Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are.” McCarthy reportedly yelled at Herrera Beutler for making that public, saying, “You should have come to me! Why did you go to the press? This is no way to thank me!” McCarthy and Herrera Beutler then denied reports that he had yelled at her until she was in tears, but the reporting on that meeting “was verified by a primary source and multiple lawmakers who heard the account firsthand from McCarthy.” McCarthy lied one of those times, in other words.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney also offers another eyebrow-raising McCarthy-Trump story in her new book:

“Mar-a-Lago? What the hell, Kevin?” Cheney asked, per CNN.

“They’re really worried,” he replied, according to her book. “Trump’s not eating, so they asked me to come see him.”

“What? You went to Mar-a-Lago because Trump’s not eating?” Cheney said.

“Yeah, he’s really depressed,” McCarthy added.

Yes, Donald Trump was depressed and the only thing that could make him feel better was a visit from Kevin McCarthy.

These two deserve each other. They are seething balls of ego and ambition, only caring for what the people around them can do for them. The thing is, Trump is better at it. He’s more shameless, more dangerous. McCarthy is always a little—and sometimes more than a little—pathetic. And these days, as ex-speaker, he’s barely even relevant except as a symbol of his party’s ongoing disgrace.

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Republican favorability ratings in battleground districts sink even lower

As House Republicans weigh launching an impeachment proceeding against President Joe Biden for who the hell knows what, new polling shows nearly 7 in 10 voters (68%) in battleground congressional districts across the country believe House Republicans have prioritized “the wrong things," while just 20% say they have prioritized the right things.

The findings come from a Navigator Research survey of 61 battleground districts in late October. And the poll suggests that sentiment is shared at roughly the same rate among voters represented by Democratic and Republican incumbents alike.

Voters' assessments of House Republican priorities have also plummeted since July, when Republicans were just 16 percentage points underwater on the question versus being 48 points underwater now—a net shift of -32 points in only three months.

Republican incumbents in Biden-won districts also have a net -10 favorability rating among their constituents (34% favorable, 44% unfavorable).

But wait, there's more: Republican incumbents in Trump-won districts are also underwater in terms of both favorability (-4 points on net, 41% favorable to 45% unfavorable) and job approval (-6 points, 37% favorable to 43% unfavorable).

Navigator says these are House Republicans' lowest ratings since the group's first battleground survey in April.

By contrast, throughout Navigator’s battleground series this year, Democratic incumbents have remained above water and improved over time. In this latest survey, Democratic incumbents are 9 points above water on favorability (42% to 33%) and 8 points above water on job approval (40% to 32%).

Survey responses continued to highlight economic anxiety among voters across the districts, with a 48% plurality rating the economy as "poor," and 54% expressing concern over being able to set aside money for savings. Inflation and the cost of goods remain key concerns.

When taking stock of their personal financial situation, however, 54% rated it positively, with 7% saying "excellent" and 47% saying "good."

But whatever their economic outlook, battleground voters overwhelmingly believe Republicans have not prioritized the economy, with 70% saying they haven't focused on economic issues, compared with just 17% who say they have.

With some 70% of battleground voters agreeing Republicans have prioritized “the wrong things" and haven't focused enough on economic issues, Republicans have the perfect fix: impeachment.

What’s that old phrase, again? It's the impeachment, stupid. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

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ICYMI: Media sleeps as Trump blatantly disregards constitutional norms

Why is the media ignoring Trump's direct threats to our Constitution?

Donald Trump keeps threatening our nation’s democracy in no uncertain terms, and yet the nation’s media insists on treating his proclamations as spectacle, when they’re not outright ignoring him.

Take Trump’s fascist declaration that his potential next administration would “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, that lie and steal and cheat on elections.” Historians have noted the alarming similarities to Adolf Hitler’s and Benito Mussolini’s eliminationist rhetoric, yet a Media Matters for America analysis found that our media could barely be bothered to care. Indeed, comparing the media’s coverage of Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” comment to Trump’s “vermin” comment is … just go look for yourself.

Well, now he’s threatening the media, promising in a social media post to “come down hard” on MSNBC for its “constant attacks” on him. Clearly, Trump has no use for the First Amendment or the Constitution in general. Yet, can we expect the media to rally around its freedoms by calling out such outrageous threats? Don’t hold your breath. The media has a history of ignoring his threats, after all. If only his name were Hillary Clinton, perhaps then they’d be more suitably outraged.

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How many times will Tommy Tuberville pull the football away from Senate Republicans?

This time he’ll allow military promotions to proceed, promise! He just needs a couple more days. …

Comic:

More comics.

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Will the GOP ever break up with MAGA Republicans?

This week should have proved once and for all to Republicans everywhere that the MAGA minority in Congress is ungovernable and, worse, opposed to having a government at all. New House Speaker Mike Johnson faces the same reality that every recent GOP speaker has faced, but it looks like it might get worse than what even former Speaker Kevin McCarthy dealt with.

Once again, the only way Johnson could get a continuing resolution to keep the government running was with Democratic votes—the same way McCarthy did it (though with a hint more grace and far less drama). And once again, the minority of Republican maniacs who run the show hit back. In McCarthy’s case, the rebellion led to his ouster. But so far, they aren’t threatening that for Johnson. However, they did grind the House to a legislative halt, again, preventing it from passing appropriations bills that they should have loved, larded down as the bills were with the MAGA maniacs’ own poison-pill provisions.

You can lay this situation at McCarthy’s feet. He gave the place away to the maniacs in exchange for holding the gavel for nine months. That included putting three of the most extreme members in the GOP conference—Reps. Chip Roy of Texas, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, and Thomas Massie of Kentucky—on the powerful House Rules Committee. They’re the ones responsible for making sure every extreme amendment from the likes of Andy Biggs, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Lauren Boebert gets a vote on the floor.

Those amendments are why the “moderates” in the GOP joined the hard-liners in shutting down the latest appropriations bill, voting against a procedural rule to advance it.

Rep. Nick LaLota, a Republican from New York, voted against it in protest of having to keep taking disastrous votes on far-right amendments that are doomed to fail. “The amendments are going to fail, the bill is going to fail, it won’t get sent to the Senate, it won’t be signed by the president,” LaLota said.

By the way, that trick of blocking a motion to proceed to a bill hadn’t been used by majority members in the House since 2002, and back then, it was used just once. It’s been deployed several times by Republicans just since June. This is how broken the House is since “regular” Republicans folded and let the small group of extremists run the show.

Speaking of broken, ladies and gentlemen, meet the Senate where a growing MAGA contingent promises to bring some of the House chaos to the upper chamber. From Oklahoma’s brawling Markwayne Mullin to Alabama’s one-man national security threat, Tommy Tuberville, we’re moving far beyond the traditional GOP obstruction with filibusters and into unprecedented territory.

Democrats salvaged something from all this wreckage this week: the continuing resolution that will keep the government operating for the rest of the year. No question, that’s a great thing to have accomplished. But because Democrats did it, the MAGA rampage will get even worse, and it’ll start as soon as Congress returns from its Thanksgiving break.

In other words, getting those appropriations bills done in a few months comes down to Johnson realizing that if he wants to succeed in this job, he’ll have to break the hold the minority nihilists have on the House. That means working with Democrats on everything from determining spending in bills to restructuring the Rules Committee to end the maniacs’ control of it. If the House ceases to function—which we are perilously close to—the legislative branch doesn’t work. The Senate can’t legislate by itself. While we’re talking reform, Senate Republicans have to bow to reality and vote with Democrats to stop Tuberville from kneecapping the nation’s military.

The big problem, as always, is MAGA king Donald Trump. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is more likely to use Trump for potential political gains than to renounce him for the good of the country. Johnson—one of Trump’s lead insurrectionists following the 2020 election—is proving even more willing than McCarthy to grovel to Trump.

Even when Republicans must know it’s against their best interest to spiral down the MAGA toilet, that’s what they’re going to do. That is, unless Johnson has any ambition to remain speaker after 2024. The easiest way for Congress to remain in Republican hands past 2024 is by showing they can govern, which they cannot do unless they get Democrats to hold their hands and show them how.

That’s exactly what Democrats should not do, though, unless they get something significant in return, like an end to bogus impeachment efforts and a say in what legislation comes to the floor. This past week might have been enough for Johnson to grasp the futility of letting the maniacs continue to rule, but I wouldn’t count on it.

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Republicans are challenging labor leaders to fights and allegedly physically assaulting one another. Donald Trump says he will abolish reproductive rights entirely and is openly calling for the extermination of his detractors, referring to them as “vermin” on Veterans Day. The Republican Party has emerged from its corruption cocoon as a full-blown fascist movement.

Impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas failed, no thanks to GOP ‘moderates’

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas was not impeached by the House of Representatives Monday—barely. Georgia’s contribution to the debasement of Congress, namely Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, filed the privileged resolution against Mayorkas last week on the charge that he has violated his oath of office by, in part, “allowing the invasion of approximately 10,000,000 illegals across our borders.” (Greene apparently wrote this one up all by herself.)

Eight Republicans voted with Democrats to punt on the resolution, essentially killing it (for now) by referring it to the House Homeland Security Committee. Yes, a mere eight Republicans, despite the fact that there have been no impeachment hearings held about Mayorkas and his job performance. There has been no evidence presented to any committee that he has committed high crimes and misdemeanors. But 201 Republicans—including 17 of the 18 GOP members representing districts that Joe Biden won in 2020—didn’t care about any of that.

The only one of the “Biden 18” to vote against the impeachment was California Rep. John Duarte. Eleven other Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, did not vote.

Those supposed GOP “moderates,” like Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, love to bitch about having to cast hard votes for amendments on appropriations bills that will never become law. “So they make us take votes that don’t make sense, right?” Bacon complained just last week, whining about how extreme his party has become.

Meanwhile, he—and the rest of them—lined up with the repugnant Greene on this absolutely bogus impeachment resolution. This is what they endorsed Monday night:

Darrell Issa is right, I am a hardworking member of Congress who puts the American people first. But we all know what Darrell Issa lacks… 🏈🏀⚾️🎾🎱 https://t.co/j4YX9Gc5Fp

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) November 14, 2023

And this:

https://t.co/BKnV2GaR6x pic.twitter.com/V4IMVNW82i

— Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸 (@mtgreenee) November 14, 2023

Once more, they proved the conventional wisdom: The GOP’s so-called “moderates” will always cave to the extreme right.

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Ignore Speaker Johnson's positions, Republicans say. The important thing is he doesn't shout

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Just one word explains why Democrats had such a massive election night on Tuesday: abortion. On the newest episode of The Downballot, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the top races through the lens of reproductive rights, which continue to motivate Democrats and even win over a key swath of Republican voters. Nowhere was that more evident than in Ohio, which voted to enshrine the right to an abortion into the state constitution by a double-digit margin, despite countless GOP attempts to derail the effort.

Here’s how inherently partisan the House impeachment inquiry is

The early weeks of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s tenure are seeing a predictable outbreak of “moderate” Republicans saying they sure hope that the impeachment inquiry that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy launched against President Joe Biden will “go where the evidence goes” and rely on “an orderly and fair process.” Those quotes are from Reps. Don Bacon and Doug LaMalfa, respectively, who will provide invaluable cover for Johnson as he works to get the media to buy into his Very Smart Constitutional Lawyer persona. But a Washington Post article on the impeachment dynamics under Johnson contained maybe the most damning possible passage on Johnson’s approach.

But in this week’s private meeting with moderates, Johnson appeared to agree with Republican lawmakers who argued that since Biden’s polling numbers have been so weak, there is less of a political imperative to impeach him, according to Bacon and others who attended the meeting.

I’m sorry, but how is that a passing mention in a story largely focused on how Johnson “has taken a more reserved tone, both publicly and privately, urging members to conduct a thorough and fair investigation with no predetermined outcome”? If Johnson’s “more reserved tone” is based on feeling that it’s no longer politically important to impeach Biden, that’s not a sign that he’s prioritizing being “thorough and fair”; it’s a sign that he’s proceeding from an entirely partisan starting point!

Before he became speaker and decided that his play was looking like a serious guy by getting the media to ignore that his constitutional law work was anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ+ extremism, Johnson promoted House Oversight Chair James Comer’s baseless allegations against Biden. “The things that the evidence is leading us to, the allegations that are very serious and have been made in the mounting evidence stacking up to show is the causes that are listed right there in the Constitution,” he said in late September. “So we have no choice. Why are Democrats ignoring it purely for partisan political purposes?” Also in late September, he stood on the House floor and railed against the media for correctly observing that the impeachment inquiry “may be weakest in history” and was “the most predictable impeachment investigation in American history.” It goes on. “One thing that remains clear: The list of credible allegations that Joe Biden engaged in bribery schemes continues to grow,” he tweeted in early October. “The Constitution specifically lists bribery as a cause for impeachment. We can't have a President that is bought & paid for by foreign adversaries.”

Sure, Johnson gave lip service to following the evidence from time to time, but he regularly promoted Comer’s wildest allegations against Biden as truth, and presented impeachment as the logical and necessary outcome, the constitutional responsibility of the House for such corruption. And now the reporting shows that if, as speaker, he is backing off a little, it’s not just because he has decided it’s important to look like a statesman but also because he thinks impeachment is currently less important from a partisan standpoint, based on the polling.

This is who Mike Johnson is. The media needs to actually pay attention, rather than reporting such massively damning information as if it were a ho-hum scenario not worthy of extended comment.

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The band is back together, and it is a glorious day as Markos and Kerry’s hot takes over the past year came true—again! Republicans continue to lose at the ballot box and we are here for it!

This is what happens when a House Republican gets tough questions on Hunter Biden subpoenas

 House Republicans have now subpoenaed Hunter Biden and James Biden, President Joe Biden’s son and brother, as part of their ongoing and so far fruitless effort to connect the president to any kind of corruption at all. Republicans have been on this for nearly a year in an investigation involving thousands of pages of documents and multiple witnesses, but they keep pretending that if they harass Biden and his family a little more, they’ll find something. Because we’re talking about Republicans, they’re definitely not worried about hypocrisy, but they can still look bumbling, confused, and all-around bad, as Rep. Greg Murphy showed when faced with a tough barrage of questions from CNN’s John Berman.

Berman set Murphy up with a simple question, referring to those subpoenas to Hunter and James Biden: “Will you vote to hold them in contempt” if they don’t respond? “Absolutely, absolutely, why would they not be, what do they have to hide?” Murphy responded, oozing relaxed confidence.

He didn’t seem ready for the follow-up: “Why have you changed your position on holding people in contempt of Congress? You voted against holding Steve Bannon in contempt.”

BERMAN: If Hunter & Jim Biden don't respond to subpoenas, will you hold them in contempt? GREG MURPHY: Absolutely B: Why did you change your position? You voted against holding Bannon in contempt M: It's different when someone is in office B: What office was Hunter Biden in? pic.twitter.com/OTy9CJNAVV

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 9, 2023

Murphy’s response made no sense right from the start. “Well, I think it’s a little bit different when you have the president of the United States, when you have somebody who’s not an elected official, you have the president of the United States was selling his influence, his son was ...”

This kicked off an extended back and forth, with Berman trying to pin Murphy down on who the heck the elected official in question was, given that neither of the people who has been subpoenaed is an elected official. Asked about contempt of Congress for people who don’t respond to subpoenas, Murphy only wanted to talk about the president—who has not been subpoenaed.

At one point, Berman stopped Murphy to press on the fundamental problem here: “I’m sorry, who are you saying is in elected office here when you’re talking about holding people in contempt of Congress for being nonresponsive?”

Murphy: “Well, tell me what office Steve Bannon was in.”

Berman: “Well, tell me what office Hunter Biden is in.”

“No, I’m not talking about Hunter Biden,” Murphy said, in a conversation that was entirely about his vow to vote to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress if he didn’t respond to a subpoena. “I’m talking about Joe Biden, the president of the United States.”

“You haven’t subpoenaed him,” Berman responded. “I’m asking if Hunter Biden or Jim Biden, the brother and son of the president, who are not elected officials, if they’re not responsive, will you hold them in contempt?”

“Think about this, John,” said Murphy, who was obviously not thinking about anything but how to fit his talking points into this inconvenient line of questioning. “If you’ve seen the facts, the facts that have occurred, we’ve seen that there’s been influence-peddling.” Then, having delivered that line that was not an answer to the question being asked, he dived back into his canned and baseless accusations against the president. Who has not been subpoenaed.

Berman tried to pull it back on track by again pointing out that Murphy had voted not to hold Bannon in contempt.

“Yeah, but was Steve Bannon related to the president of the United States?”

“No, he was a former employee of President Donald Trump, and the other people who you did not vote to hold in contempt literally worked for the former president, Donald Trump.”

House Republican totally makes a fool of himself on CNN pic.twitter.com/pIvxGCDbfM

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 9, 2023

Murphy blathered about Hunter Biden “using the Biden brand,” which he insisted was “an entirely different standard, John, and you know it.” Well, yes, we all know that the different standard here is that Biden is a Democrat and Republicans are determined to drag him down even without evidence of corruption.

“I just, no, I don’t, I’m actually still confused,” Berman responded. “We’re talking about private citizens, and my question to you is if they are not responsive to the subpoena would you hold them in contempt. You say yes for Hunter Biden. You voted no for Steve Bannon, and then you talk about there’s a different standard for elected officials but neither of them are elected.”

Just to be clear, Murphy’s stated, albeit muddled, position is that it’s more relevant to subpoena people who happen to be related to a president than people who worked for a president in his official capacity. But trying to discern a logic beyond the partisan witch hunt is kind of pointless, because that’s the only there there. They want to get Joe Biden, and since they haven’t been able to find any evidence he’s corrupt, they’re going to use “Biden family” to muddy things. 

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Biden-district House Republicans get behind new extremist speaker

 Whether out of desperation or sheer exhaustion, House Republicans unanimously voted in a new speaker more than three weeks after Kevin McCarthy was booted. And what a doozy of a speaker he is: Rep. Mike Johnson is an anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ+ bigot who is all in on an impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden based on lies. He considers himself and Rep. Jim Jordan to be “like Batman and Robin,” and if he were Robin before, maybe now he gets to be Batman. And all 18 Republicans representing districts President Joe Biden won in 2020 got behind this extremist.

Nine Biden-district Republicans voted for Jordan as speaker all three times. Another three voted for him twice before flipping their votes the third time. But Johnson? The “most important architect of the Electoral College objections” in the House on Jan. 6, 2021, according to The New York Times? He got all 18 of them. And all 18 of them are going to have to answer for it in their 2024 reelection campaigns—Democrats will make sure of that.

Democrats are heckling the vulnerable New York Republicans from across the chamber, crooning "bye bye" as they fall in line behind Johnson

— Kate Riga (@Kate_Riga24) October 25, 2023

The top candidates for speaker of the House

Nine Republican men—of course they are all men—have filed to run for speaker of the House, filling the seat Rep. Kevin McCarthy was booted out of 20 days ago. The chaos will continue for at least part of this week as the deeply divided Republican conference tries to work through its issues. There are many, which have been heightened by the scorched-earth campaign Rep. Jim Jordan and his Freedom Caucus pals waged against holdouts, trying to bully them into submission with the predictable result: death threats against the opposition and their families that Jordan and team blew off.

It’s hard to overstate the anger and resentment brewing in the Republican conference at this point. It’s likely to spill into Monday evening’s conference meeting, which is supposed to be a candidate forum in which all nine candidates will make their pitch. This is who’s running: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota, House Republican Vice Conference Chairman Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Republican Study Committee Chairman Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, Republican Policy Committee Chairman Gary Palmer of Alabama, Reps. Byron Donalds of Florida, Jack Bergman of Michigan, Austin Scott of Georgia, Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, and Pete Sessions of Texas.

TOP TIER

Out of that group, Emmer, Johnson, Hern, and Donalds are the most likely contenders; the first three because they’ve had the most experience in policy and working with their colleagues. Donalds, even though he’s been in Congress for less than three years, is the MAGA/Freedom Caucus/Trump choice—the Jordan successor.

Of that group, Emmer is the only one who did not vote to overturn elections results on Jan. 6, 2021. He’s also supported aid to Ukraine and voted for last month’s continuing resolution (CR), which kept the government open. Emmer’s sanity is going to make him—and his backers—a target of the extremists. Some have told Axios reporter Andrew Solender that they don’t intend to go public with their support because they don’t want to be targeted again.

Johnson voted against Ukraine aid and voted against last month’s CR. He’s a Trump ally and, in fact, served on Trump’s defense team in both of his impeachment trials in the Senate. He would likely be acceptable to the large bunch of extremists but will have a problem being from Louisiana. That’s where Majority Leader Steve Scalise is from, and traditionally, members don’t like to see leadership centered in one state.

Hern has been in Congress since 2018 and became chair of the Republican Study Committee this year. He’s the “policy” guy, as much as such a thing exists in the GOP these days. He also voted against the CR and a functioning government and against aid to Ukraine. He flirted with running for speaker in the last round but deferred to Scalise and Jordan.

Donalds is a dyed-in-the-wool MAGA Freedom Caucus Florida Man, opposed to both the CR and aid to Ukraine. He’s an election denier who has repeatedly insisted that President Joe Biden is not a legitimate president. When the Freedom Caucus and Rep. Matt Gaetz wanted to fight McCarthy in the first speaker election, back in January, Donalds was one of the guys they put forward. He’ll likely be the first choice of most of the extremists.

THE ALSO-RANS

Of the second tier of candidates, Sessions is the most experienced, formerly serving as the House Rules Committee chair. He’s a member of both the conservative Republican Study Committee and what serves as moderate in this group, the Republican Main Street Caucus. He could be a dark-horse candidate here.

Among this group, Scott is the only one who did not vote to reject the election results. He’s the guy who decided to mount a challenge to Jordan’s bid for speaker at the last minute. Getting 81 anti-Jordan votes in that surprise bid seemed to make him think he could actually do this. He and the remainder in the second tier are likely to be weeded out pretty quickly.

The plan for Monday evening is for every candidate to give a two-minute speech, followed by 90 minutes of Q&A for the whole group, with one-minute closing remarks from each candidate. The voting in the conference begins Tuesday.

Here’s a cheat sheet for some of the key votes of all the candidates.

Ladies and gentlemen, your cheat sheet to the 9 Republican candidates for Speaker of the House: https://t.co/Fiyc257NpJ pic.twitter.com/3JGeDWRM2n

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) October 22, 2023

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