The top candidates for speaker of the House

Nine Republican men—of course they are all men—have filed to run for speaker of the House, filling the seat Rep. Kevin McCarthy was booted out of 20 days ago. The chaos will continue for at least part of this week as the deeply divided Republican conference tries to work through its issues. There are many, which have been heightened by the scorched-earth campaign Rep. Jim Jordan and his Freedom Caucus pals waged against holdouts, trying to bully them into submission with the predictable result: death threats against the opposition and their families that Jordan and team blew off.

It’s hard to overstate the anger and resentment brewing in the Republican conference at this point. It’s likely to spill into Monday evening’s conference meeting, which is supposed to be a candidate forum in which all nine candidates will make their pitch. This is who’s running: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota, House Republican Vice Conference Chairman Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Republican Study Committee Chairman Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, Republican Policy Committee Chairman Gary Palmer of Alabama, Reps. Byron Donalds of Florida, Jack Bergman of Michigan, Austin Scott of Georgia, Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, and Pete Sessions of Texas.

TOP TIER

Out of that group, Emmer, Johnson, Hern, and Donalds are the most likely contenders; the first three because they’ve had the most experience in policy and working with their colleagues. Donalds, even though he’s been in Congress for less than three years, is the MAGA/Freedom Caucus/Trump choice—the Jordan successor.

Of that group, Emmer is the only one who did not vote to overturn elections results on Jan. 6, 2021. He’s also supported aid to Ukraine and voted for last month’s continuing resolution (CR), which kept the government open. Emmer’s sanity is going to make him—and his backers—a target of the extremists. Some have told Axios reporter Andrew Solender that they don’t intend to go public with their support because they don’t want to be targeted again.

Johnson voted against Ukraine aid and voted against last month’s CR. He’s a Trump ally and, in fact, served on Trump’s defense team in both of his impeachment trials in the Senate. He would likely be acceptable to the large bunch of extremists but will have a problem being from Louisiana. That’s where Majority Leader Steve Scalise is from, and traditionally, members don’t like to see leadership centered in one state.

Hern has been in Congress since 2018 and became chair of the Republican Study Committee this year. He’s the “policy” guy, as much as such a thing exists in the GOP these days. He also voted against the CR and a functioning government and against aid to Ukraine. He flirted with running for speaker in the last round but deferred to Scalise and Jordan.

Donalds is a dyed-in-the-wool MAGA Freedom Caucus Florida Man, opposed to both the CR and aid to Ukraine. He’s an election denier who has repeatedly insisted that President Joe Biden is not a legitimate president. When the Freedom Caucus and Rep. Matt Gaetz wanted to fight McCarthy in the first speaker election, back in January, Donalds was one of the guys they put forward. He’ll likely be the first choice of most of the extremists.

THE ALSO-RANS

Of the second tier of candidates, Sessions is the most experienced, formerly serving as the House Rules Committee chair. He’s a member of both the conservative Republican Study Committee and what serves as moderate in this group, the Republican Main Street Caucus. He could be a dark-horse candidate here.

Among this group, Scott is the only one who did not vote to reject the election results. He’s the guy who decided to mount a challenge to Jordan’s bid for speaker at the last minute. Getting 81 anti-Jordan votes in that surprise bid seemed to make him think he could actually do this. He and the remainder in the second tier are likely to be weeded out pretty quickly.

The plan for Monday evening is for every candidate to give a two-minute speech, followed by 90 minutes of Q&A for the whole group, with one-minute closing remarks from each candidate. The voting in the conference begins Tuesday.

Here’s a cheat sheet for some of the key votes of all the candidates.

Ladies and gentlemen, your cheat sheet to the 9 Republican candidates for Speaker of the House: https://t.co/Fiyc257NpJ pic.twitter.com/3JGeDWRM2n

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) October 22, 2023

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‘Embarrassing,’ ‘stupid’: Republicans blast national party as if it bears no relation to them

Senate Republicans have finally located their problem, and it's the Republican National Committee. After the RNC last week endorsed the Jan. 6 insurrection as "legitimate political discourse," many congressional Republicans are pretending like the national Republican Party bears no relationship to them.

"I'm not a member of the RNC," Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas said Sunday when asked whether GOP Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois deserved to be censured by the RNC for participating in the Jan. 6 probe. Within the text of that censure resolution, the RNC endorsed the violent Jan. 6 assault that resulted in death and destruction as "legitimate political discourse."

"It could not have been a more inappropriate message," said Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, the uncle of RNC chair Ronna McDaniel. Romney said he had texted with McDaniel after passage of the resolution and described her to CNN as a "wonderful person and doing her very best." But as for the resolution, Romney added, "Anything that my party does that comes across as being stupid is not going to help us."

Stupid is apt—but let's not limit the moniker to McDaniel and the national party alone. Republicans, eyeing an election cycle that should absolutely favor them based on historical trends, had the chance to bury Donald Trump last year during his second impeachment trial and leave much of his political baggage in the rearview mirror. Instead, they breathed new life into him, and now they're pretending like the RNC is solely responsible for his drag on the party.

The RNC censure resolution came at the end of a week that was kicked off by Trump dangling pardons for Jan. 6 convicts during a Texas rally the weekend before. Trump then called on Congress to investigate his former vice president, Mike Pence, for failing to unilaterally "overturn" a free and fair 2020 election.

But the RNC's endorsement of the Jan. 6 violence was just the latest in a years-long parade of Republican efforts to appease and coddle Trump. He has continually demanded absolute fealty from Republicans every step of the way, and they have acquiesced time and time again. With its censure resolution, the RNC was once again mollifying Trump by pursuing his political vendetta against Reps. Cheney and Kinzinger, both of whom voted to impeach him for inciting the Jan. 6 attack.

Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina, also one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, told CNN the House GOP caucus avoided the topic of the censure altogether in its conference meeting Tuesday, suggesting the whole episode was just too cringey to touch.

“It was pretty damn embarrassing,” Rice said.

But Senate Republicans are especially prickly on the matter, particularly those who had a chance to impeach Trump for inciting the attack on the U.S. government and explicitly declined to take it.

"It's just not a constructive move, when you're trying to win elections and take on Democrats, to take on Republicans," said Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, as if no one could have imagined Trump would inspire internecine mayhem when he voted to let him off the hook for Jan. 6.

Asked if McDaniel should step aside, Thune pretended the RNC had nothing whatsoever to do with congressional Republicans. "Oh, I don't know. Ultimately, it will be up to the RNC," he said of McDaniel's fate.

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina rolled out the same talking point Senate Republicans have been parroting every time Trump pulls them into some new controversy—2022 is all about the future for Republicans, folks.

"I think all of us up here want to talk about forward and not backward," Graham said. "We want to talk about why we should be in charge of the House and the Senate, and when you're not talking about that, that takes you in the wrong direction."

And by talking about why Republicans should be in charge, Graham means deliberately not releasing a 2022 agenda so voters will have exactly no idea what Republicans plan to do if they retake control of the upper chamber.

The frustration among most Republicans was palpable.

"I think the RNC should be focused on electing Republicans," said Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri.

Even House Republicans, led by Trump hack Kevin McCarthy, sought to distance themselves from the RNC's unforced error.

Asked about the RNC resolution, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise told CNN, "My focus has been on what we need to do to take back the House."

The House GOP campaign chief, Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, added, "We're focused on winning the majority next fall."

It wasn't exactly a full-throated stand for American democracy, but hey, Republicans want control of Congress so they can end this scurrilous investigation into the worst homegrown attack on the Capitol in U.S. history.

"We ought to capture the Jan. 6 committee and convert it to our purposes: pursuing the extent to which federal involvement might have animated violence," Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, floating a totally unsubstantiated right-wing conspiracy theory.

To be fair, some Republicans did join the RNC in defending the insurrectionists.

"There's no doubt that there were tens of thousands of people engaged in peaceful free speech that the press and Democrats try to demonize falsely," said Sen. Ted Cruz, who voted against certification.

Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, who also voted to throw the election, called the Jan. 6 panel "illegitimate," presumably while pumping his fist.

"They're not following their own rules. And I think, frankly, it's, it harkens back to the House Committee on un-American affairs," said Hawley, engaging the "un-American" topic on which Republicans have become bonafide experts.

Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, firmly ensconced in his disreality bubble, couldn't dig out of his conspiracy rabbit hole long enough to take note of the RNC aligning itself with Jan. 6 terrorists.

"I did not pay any attention to that," said Johnson, who's up for reelection this year.

But Johnson was upstaged by House GOP Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who coughed up an entirely fictional explanation of the RNC's resolution.

“What they were talking about is the six RNC members who Jan 6th has subpoenaed, who weren't even here, who were in Florida that day," McCarthy said—something that was never even mentioned in the censure resolution.

Asked McCarthy about “legitimate political discourse.” “What they were talking about is the six RNC members who Jan 6th has subpoenaed, who weren't even here, who were in Florida that day." He says those who caused damage “should be in jail.” (RNC resolution doesn’t mention that) pic.twitter.com/k4qsLWAOv5

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) February 8, 2022

House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy gushes about ‘unity’ as he embraces extremism

Top Republicans are looking for big gains in the House in 2022, and they’ve decided that their best path to those gains is to welcome extremists to their party. Make that: to keep welcoming extremists to their party.

That’s the message they sent when House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy first refused to discipline Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene for her violent rhetoric, anti-Semitism, and embrace of conspiracy theories, and it’s the message they put an exclamation point on Thursday night when all but 11 Republicans voted to keep her in her committee assignments. Those assignments included the education committee, despite Greene’s harassment of survivors of the Parkland school shooting and her claims that the Parkland and Sandy Hook shootings had been hoaxes.

To McCarthy, the fact that Republicans voted both to keep Rep. Liz Cheney in leadership despite her vote to impeach Donald Trump and to protect Greene’s committee assignments is big evidence of the unity that will carry the party through 2022 successfully. “The number one thing that happened in this conference was unity,” he said after the five-hour meeting to fight over two women’s political fates. “Two years from now, we are going to win the majority.”

Both Democrats and Senate Republicans think McCarthy might be making the wrong bet in keeping the QAnon, insurrectionist far-right under the tent of the Republican establishment.

”House members never like us judging them, but I do think as a party we have to figure out what we stand for,” Republican Sen. John Thune said. “I think we’ve got to be the party, as I said, of ideas and policies and principles, and get away from members dabbling in conspiracy theories.”

”It’s only going to get worse unless we do something about it,” an unnamed adviser to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told The Washington Post. But McCarthy doesn’t think the direction of his caucus is bad and getting worse, apparently. He didn’t have to make a decision between Cheney and Greene this time, and he seems to see that as a road map for the future.

The question is whether Democrats—facing the traditionally very difficult midterms for a party with a first-term president—can find the right message to voters. One Democratic group is already running ads saying “The QAnon conspiracies sound wild. But the danger is real” as they tie McCarthy to Greene’s offensive statements, including her denial of 9/11.

”You can do QAnon, and you can do swing districts, but you can’t do both,” said Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. His Republican counterpart, Rep. Tom Emmer, though, said “This is the same QAnon playbook they tried in 2020, and they lost 15 seats.”

A few other things happened in the 2020 elections, mind you. And it’s not just QAnon. It’s Proud Boys and other hate groups. It’s the non-Q things Greene and Rep. Lauren Boebert and Donald Trump himself will do and say between now and November 2022. QAnon is an easy shorthand, but the full constellation of awful things that shorthand encompasses is pretty staggering, and not terribly popular with voters.

But it should be undeniable that Democrats need a message beyond QAnon. Passing a strong COVID-19 relief package, including a minimum wage increase, would be one great message. Competently administering vaccinations and getting the country back on track would be another. Democratic policies are popular. Get them into place now and then spend the next 20 months or so hammering the contrast between those accomplishments and Republican efforts to block those popular polices and Republican embrace of extremism. There should be plenty of material to work with on the Republican side—it’s getting the material on the Democratic side in place that’s the priority right now.