Can Ken Paxton be forced to testify at his impeachment trial?

By Joshua Fechter The Texas Tribune

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Suspended Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is fighting to stay off of the witness stand during his September impeachment trial, but prosecutors oppose the move, hoping to have the option of forcing Paxton to testify under oath.

Paxton’s legal team has asked Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who will preside over the trial in the Texas Senate, to forbid the House impeachment team from issuing a subpoena that would compel Paxton’s testimony.

Paxton’s lawyers argue that impeachment is a criminal proceeding, so Paxton is entitled to the same legal protections — namely, not being forced to testify — as any criminal defendant.

“Given that an impeachment trial is legally considered to be a criminal proceeding, there can only be one conclusion: the Attorney General may, but cannot be forced to, testify,” Paxton’s lawyers wrote in a July 7 filing to the court of impeachment.

Heading toward Paxton’s trial, set to begin Sept. 5, House impeachment managers argue that senators drafted and approved trial rules that give them the power to compel Paxton to appear as a witness.

No rule “limits the individuals who may be summoned to testify before the Senate. Specifically, [no rule] excludes Paxton from those persons who must appear and testify if subpoenaed,” they argued in a response filed with the court of impeachment.

While Paxton has a Fifth Amendment right to decline to provide incriminating testimony, he must assert that right specifically from the witness stand, impeachment managers argued.

Many of the articles of impeachment — approved 121-23 by the Texas House in May, setting course for the state’s third impeachment trial since 1876 — accused Paxton of abusing his office to repeatedly help a friend and campaign donor, Austin real estate investor Nate Paul.

Federal investigators have been looking into Paxton’s ties to Paul since 2020, when top executives in the state attorney general’s office accused Paxton of accepting bribes and misusing his authority to help Paul. In June, Paul was charged with eight felony counts of lying to financial institutions to obtain business loans.

“Paxton’s misdeeds with Paul are, in large part, the basis of this impeachment trial,” impeachment managers argued. “Given these circumstances, it is understandable why Paxton may think some of his answers to questions in the impeachment trial ‘would in themselves support a conviction’ or ‘furnish a link in the chain of evidence needed to prosecute,’ the standard necessary to invoke his right against self-incrimination.”

Whether Paxton can be compelled to take the stand is expected to be settled in the opening phase of trial when Patrick, in his capacity as judge, rules on pretrial motions or asks senators to decide pretrial issues by a majority vote that would be taken without discussion or debate.

The fight over Paxton’s testimony has emerged as a mini-drama within the larger impeachment saga — and the outcome of the fight could affect his legal battles outside of the impeachment proceedings, legal experts said.

Paxton has been under indictment on state securities fraud felony charges since 2015. He also faces a whistleblower lawsuit from former lieutenants who claim they were improperly fired in retaliation for reporting Paxton to the FBI and other law enforcement. That led to an FBI investigation that was transferred earlier this year to the U.S. Department of Justice — and reports that a federal grand jury in San Antonio is looking into details of Paxton’s relationship with Paul.

Not having to testify before the Senate means Paxton would have fewer opportunities to reveal information that could be used against him in those proceedings, legal experts said. If Paxton pleads the Fifth while on the stand, for example, lawyers in the whistleblower lawsuit could point to that as an indication of guilt.

The same is true of the impeachment trial. Senators could interpret Paxton’s refusal to answer questions on the stand as a sign of guilt, said Michael Smith, a professor at St. Mary’s University School of Law who specializes in criminal and constitutional law.

Paxton’s team is trying to prevent that, too. They’ve asked Patrick to tell senators they can’t infer guilt if Paxton chooses not to testify.

“There are implications to pleading the Fifth, both on the civil side of things as well as potentially in the impeachment itself,” Smith said. “But then there’s just the optics.”

Paxton is trying to avoid those complications.

“The order [Paxton] would like from Dan Patrick is an order saying you don’t have to testify in front of the Senate in this impeachment proceeding,” said Mike Golden, a former trial lawyer and director of advocacy at the University of Texas School of Law. “And we’re going to tell the lawyers for the impeachment managers that they can’t argue that your refusal to testify should somehow be held against you.”

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

Rep. Stefanik reportedly plans $100M ‘guerilla warfare’ campaign push to hold off New York Democrats offensive

The third top ranking House Republican is reportedly planning to flood $100 million of campaign dollars into strategic districts in her home state of New York to hold off the Democratic there offensive next year.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, who’s made her northern New York district – which runs through the Adirondacks not far from the Canadian border – a lock for the GOP, revealed her plans in a recent interview with Politico. 

Stefanik said she recently brought House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to the Hamptons for a previously unreported fundraiser with wealthy Long Island donors and shared a vast digital database of contributors with the state GOP. Her strategy is to flood key New York swing districts with $100 million in campaign funding, as the Republican control of the House and her own political future depend on the Empire State holding ground. 

ELISE STEFANIK BACKS BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY: 'OH, ABSOLUTELY'

Last year, the GOP flipped three battleground U.S. House seats in the Hudson Valley and Long Island. After previously supporting Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., in 2022, she is not allowing Long Island Republicans decide his congressional fate as he battles federal indictment. 

"It’s a guerilla warfare mentality," an unnamed Stefanik advisor told Politico of the congresswoman’s pledge to ensure her Republican New York colleagues have the resources to win. 

"I’ve been underestimated from the beginning," Stefanik reportedly told Politico from a dairy farm in her district. "That’s been a trend my entire time in Congress."

SPEAKER MCCARTHY REVEALS RED LINE FOR POSSIBLE BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY

More than a year out from 2024 election day, Republican campaign offices are popping up in the Hudson Valley, central New York and Long Island seeding with GOP staffers. Stefanik, who has been a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, will lead the Republican charge in New York at the same time Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries plans an offensive to regain lost seats from last cycle. 

New York GOP chairman Ed Cox told Politico that Stefanik’s involvement "is a tremendous asset to our party not just nationally, but here in New York state." 

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The $100 million to be raised through a coordinated effort with the Republican National Committee will help bolster first-year Republican Reps. Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro in the Hudson Valley; Long Island’s Anthony D’Esposito and Brandon Williams in Central New York. Stefanik vowed to raise at least $150,000 for each vulnerable new lawmaker, and Republicans also have their sights on taking on first-term Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan in the Hudson Valley, who won a special election a year ago. 

Donald Trump is digging his own political grave with that mugshot

In his pre-recorded interview with Donald Trump, broadcast Wednesday evening via his Twitter (now “X’) platform to intentionally conflict with the GOP’s presidential debate, Tucker Carlson could barely contain himself. Over and over, he relentlessly questioned Trump about the prospect for violent action in response to Trump’s ever-increasing pile of indictments.   

As reported by Isaac Arnsdorf, writing for the Washington Post, even when it became clear that Trump (no doubt after being advised by his attorneys that any incendiary verbal outbursts were incompatible with his precarious position as as criminal defendant) was not actually taking the bait, Carlson still persisted.

“The next stage is violence,” Carlson said. “Are you worried they’re going to try to kill you? Why wouldn’t they try to kill you?

Trump did not directly answer. Carlson tried again later. “If you chart it out it’s an escalation,” Carlson said, recounting the two impeachments and four indictments against Trump. “So what’s next? They’re trying to put you in prison for the rest of your life, that’s not working. So don’t they have to kill you now?” Trump again avoided answering directly.

At the conclusion of the 46-minute interview, Carlson returned to the subject of potential violence. “Do you think we’re moving toward civil war?” he said. “Do you think it’s possible that there’s open conflict?”

“I don’t know,” Trump said.

But by Thursday evening, Trump’s coy (and decidedly out-of-character) reticence regarding violence had yielded to reality. The grim and threatening mugshot Trump presented when faced with the uncomfortable situation of being booked for criminal charges at Fulton County’s jail revealed an attitude in stark contrast with his prior restraint to Carlson’s crude goading.

Thanks to the unusually harsh warnings he has already received from Judge Chutkan in the federal indictment filed against him in Washington D.C.,  Trump knows by now that explicit appeals to violence — towards witnesses or otherwise —  can land him in serious trouble. But while an unthinking, honest and on-the-record answer to Carlson’s leading questions might have legitimately threatened Trump’s continued personal  freedom, a mugshot by definition is left to the eye of the beholder. The mugshot, unmistakably aimed solely at his voting base, served as the message Trump really wanted to send: That it’s OK for his supporters to become violent on his behalf, even if he wasn’t willing to risk his own skin by actively promoting such violence.

The problem that Trump faces, however — and the reason his strategy will backfire — is that far more Americans are repelled by actual violence than they are attracted to hypothetical, imagined violence. 

Because it is so unpredictable and disruptive, violence is the antithesis of the methodical, punctilious, institutional order of our criminal justice system. Consequently, Trump, whose mentality and worldview have been informed by exploiting the weaknesses of American institutions (including the judiciary) believes that constantly ginning up the threat of violence is his best chance to fracture (and ultimately) escape that system, with its tools now so formidably deployed against him. It’s unlikely, however, that Special Counsel Jack Smith or Fulton County District attorney Fani Willis are going to be swayed by a scary mugshot. Trump’s only purpose in staging such a provocative pose was to inflame his supporters (or possibly the jury pool), hoping that somehow, some way, they will save him from the criminal convictions he now faces.

Trump came to power in the first place because there was — and still is — is a large bloc of voters who respond favorably to his authoritarian, “strong-man” pretense. The reaction by one Trump supporter, interviewed for an article by Shane Goldmacher, writing for the New York Times, and explaining a Times/Siena college poll of Republican “likely voter” preferences, is typical:

“He might say mean things and make all the men cry because all the men are wearing your wife’s underpants and you can’t be a man anymore,” David Green, 69, a retail manager in Somersworth, N.H., said of Mr. Trump. “You got to be a little sissy and cry about everything. But at the end of the day, you want results. Donald Trump’s my guy. He’s proved it on a national level.”

It’s people like Mr. Green who Trump hopes to impress by that menacing mugshot, the ones who will identify with Trump’s faux air of obstinacy and strength, who see Trump as a reflection of their own resentments and prejudices. And with poll after poll showing Americans — particularly conservative Americans --  increasingly voicing their willingness to condone political violence, it’s understandable how Trump could believe that these attitudes could be harnessed for his benefit (for Trump, cultivating a perception that he finds violence acceptable is also key to his ability to fundraise, and he and others will be monetizing this image ad nauseum, but that is a separate issue).

But the “conventional wisdom” that Americans are willing to tolerate violence, even violence performed towards others of a different political persuasion, is demonstrably countered by those who place a higher value on tranquility and stability in their own lives. The country Trump and his supporters evidently envision is one in which roaming gangs of his supporters dominate the streets, imposing their will on a helpless populace: A world where law and order are effectively ignored. This type of world might well appeal to the keyboard commandos who populate right-wing social media, but as one study shows, while voters when polled markedly overstate their tolerance for ambiguously stated, generic political  violence, their actual reaction to specific, violent acts is quite different.

In fact, as that research paper points out:

[E]ven though segments of the public may support violence or report that it is justified in the abstract, nearly all respondents still believe that perpetrators of well-defined instances of severe political violence should be criminally charged.

The plain fact is that voters have already weighed in — twice, actually  — on how they feel about the threats issued by Trump and his most virulent supporters. Further actions by Trump’s violent base won’t change that basic equation. That doesn’t mean there won’t be violence if and when Trump is convicted of anything. In fact, the record so far of “near misses” in this year alone confirms that there will most definitely be specific acts of violence from Trump supporters, some of whom will be influenced by this mugshot and Trump’s continued heedless antics on social media. Assuming the walls continue to close in on Trump, the tone of violent rhetoric from his backers can be expected to increase.

The record of the last two elections, however, suggests that this escalation won’t matter, and not simply because, as pointed out by research professor Christian Davenport in an interview conducted for an article by by NPR, “People will say a great number of things on a poll,” but never actually act on their professed beliefs.

Because Americans already have experience with Trump threatening their lives, and they’ve rendered their verdict multiple times. The abysmal and malevolent response by Trump and his Republican enablers to the COVID-19 pandemic was probably the singular factor in voters’ decision to reject Trump in 2020. Likewise, voters — Democrats and Independents alike — uniformly rejected those Republican candidates who modelled their own campaigns in 2022 on Trump’s election lies.  Those lies were inextricably associated with violence performed with breathtaking visibility, in an unprecedented, violent assault at our nation’s capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. For Trump, but more importantly for those who oppose Trump, his claims of a “stolen” election are now equated with raw violence from his supporters, and the majority of Americans clearly have expressed their reaction: They don’t appreciate it,  they don’t like it, and they don’t want it, no matter what Tucker Carlson may say.

It may be difficult for Republican voters to comprehend— ensconced as they are in their alternative universe silos of disinformation — but by any objective standards, the 2022 election should have been an electoral wipeout for Democrats. Adding to the historical recurrence of a president’s party losing control of Congress in a midterm election, inflation at the time was still at unprecedented levels. Gas prices were still high, if gradually coming down. Abortion rights were suddenly on the ballot, however, and Trumpian candidates were still peddling the same nonsense — including threats of violence. Then, as now, the Republican party was unable or unwilling  to separate itself from Trump.

There is no reason to expect that the political landscape will be much, if at all, different in a year from now, except Trump may have actually been convicted of some or all of the 91 felony counts currently pending against him. No white knight is going to come riding in to save the day for them. Abortion will still be a major factor. But for Republicans, it will be still be Trump, Trump, Trump, all the time, except this time saddled with the baggage of multiple criminal indictments and probably an even larger tally of violent and (literally) repulsive actions from his most rabid supporters. Those actions didn’t work to dissuade voters in 2020, they didn’t work in 2022, and they’re not going to work in 2024.

Next year, however, every time a violent act from some Trump-spouting psychopath occurs, Americans won’t need to search their memories for the reasons they voted the way they did in the prior two elections. This time, all Americans will have the benefit of a clear, distinct and unforgettable photograph in the back of their minds, when they are once again called on to vote. Trump evidently hopes Americans will be too scared or intimidated by his followers to re-elect president Biden. The record simply shows that they won’t.

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Lies, statistics, and official records

We begin today with Vinson Cunningham of The New Yorker reading of Number 45’s mugshot.

Just look at the impenitent subject: the deep furrow between his eyebrows and the one that contours his cheek seem to want to connect and form a kind of scar in shadow. One thing that the picture makes plain—not for the first time, but in a definitive way that won’t soon be forgotten—is how many of Trump’s cues are cribbed directly and consciously from the cinematic literature of romanticized criminals. Trump’s the kind of guy who thinks Scorsese movies are straightforward celebrations of tough guys on the come-up; here’s how you make it in America if you’ve got enough guff and a high tolerance for trouble. He seems to have styled himself, for a long time now, after the “goodfellas,” let some of their leering rhythms slip into his facial bearing and his speech. (His actual ties to the Mob, which he has denied, in its palsying days in eighties and nineties New York and New Jersey have been a rich field of speculation, but that’s a topic for another day.) This mug shot’s been a long time coming—it is, perhaps, the point toward which the entire asymptote of Trump’s life has bowed. He might be angry in the mug shot; he may well be scared. But he damn sure doesn’t look surprised. Nobody is.

Far from surprise: can there be any doubt that, hours before his surrender, before the camera ever flashed, Trump stood in front of some gold-framed mirror and practiced this lipless pout? He knows better than anybody that his supporters—who still make up the formidable majority of the Republican primary electorate—will take this picture and make it a banner. He’s a gossipy seventy-seven-year-old man who allegedly makes weird, lusty comments about his daughter, dances like a windup toy whenever he hears the song “Macho Man,” and still, in the autumn of his life, needlessly lies about his weight whenever he gets a chance. (In Georgia, when he gave himself up, Trump—whose form was reportedly filled out in advance by aides—was listed as six-three and two hundred and fifteen pounds; if this were true, he’d be the same weight and an inch taller than Lamar Jackson, the über-athletic Baltimore Ravens quarterback, who looks like a contemporary update of Michelangelo’s David.) Still, displaying a pathology that feels libidinal in deep origin, his supporters, throughout the past eight years, have tended to insist on a vision of Trump as a somewhat hunky fighting figure, ready to re-tame the American frontier and take the country back from his enemies on behalf of the “forgotten man.” Trump has incorporated this veneration into his idea of himself, reminding audiences everywhere that he is fighting for them, has been striped by a whip meant for their backs, is on the front line, taking oncoming fire to secure their freedom.

Lamar Jackson: 6’2, 215 Donald Trump: 6’3, 215 pic.twitter.com/SyDestukLS

— communist andy 🇦🇴 (@bigredclearsog) August 25, 2023

Snopes listed the claim as true! Both claims are now listed as official records now.

Jeffrey Bellin and Adam Gershowitz of Slate write that all of Trump’s various federal and state prosecutors need to avoid any and all violations of the Supreme Court’s Brady rule.

So how do the Trump prosecutors avoid committing a Brady violation? Well, the first step is to know the types of circumstances in which they happen.

Prosecutors commit Brady violations in three common situations: First, some prosecutors intentionally hide evidence. Second, prosecutors commit Brady violations because they don’t understand the law and inadvertently fail to disclose required evidence. Third, prosecutors fail to turn over evidence held by other members of the “prosecution team,” such as police officers who work outside the prosecutor’s office.

The first two scenarios seem unlikely in the Trump cases. The whole world is watching, so it would be absurd for special counsel Jack Smith and the other prosecutors to intentionally hide evidence. And it seems doubtful that these prosecutors, knowing the stakes, would make a legal mistake about their discovery obligations, rather than simply erring on the side of disclosure.

The third scenario—turning over all evidence held by the prosecution team—is the trouble spot. The Brady doctrine provides that prosecutors must turn over evidence not just from their own files but also from the files of everyone on the prosecution team, even if the prosecutors have personally never laid eyes on the evidence.

Susan B. Glasser of The New Yorker lot some of the veterans of the Republican clown car that was on stage for last Wednesday night’s debate.

Watching these hopelessly outmatched candidates, I kept thinking back to one of the great lines from last summer’s January 6th hearings in the House of Representatives. Trump’s former campaign manager, Bill Stepien, described how, after the 2020 election, he and others had been part of “Team Normal,” those who tried and failed to convince Trump that he had really lost the election, only to find themselves pushed aside in favor of Team Crazy, whose members, led by Rudy Giuliani, aided and abetted Trump’s lies about the “rigged election.” The Republican debate stage in Milwaukee this week was filled with candidates who came from what passes for Team Normal in today’s G.O.P., figures such as Trump’s former Vice-President, Pence; Trump’s former U.N. Ambassador Haley; and Trump’s former friend and adviser Christie.

All three of them built their careers as governors in the pre-Trump Republican Party: Pence and Haley in the reliably red states of Indiana and South Carolina, respectively; Christie in Democratic New Jersey, a point he emphasized—to little avail—in his debate-stage pitch for Republicans to go for a candidate who knows how to win a competitive race in unfriendly territory. But, just like Stepien and the rest of Team Normal, they all eventually sold out to Trump. In this, they represent the very considerable part of the Republican Party that knew supporting Trump was a disaster back in 2016 and, yet, when it came time for the general election and divvying up the spoils of power that followed his unlikely victory, they did it anyway.

If this were a different time, a viewer of Wednesday’s debate might have concluded that it was not a bad night for Team Normal. Haley and Christie delivered several of the more memorable zingers while making impassioned cases for decidedly normal causes, such as supporting Ukraine, a free country aligned with the U.S., over Vladimir Putin’s murderous dictatorship, as Haley put it, or choosing to protect the Constitution over terminating it, as Christie put it. Both took especial glee in going after Ramaswamy, a Trump for the millennial set so automatic in his Trumpier-than-thou responses to any question that Christie lampooned him as a sort of ChatGPT version of a Republican candidate. It was a good dig but also perhaps unintentionally revealing: ChatGPT might very well come up with a Trumpist candidate who sounds a lot like this one.

Patrick Svitek of the Texas Tribune reports that pressure continues to mount on Texas senators ahead of the impeachment trial of now-suspended Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Paxton’s allies are singling out a half dozen senators for lobbying. A mysterious entity is airing TV ads and sending out mailers targeting certain senators. And an influential establishment group, as well as former Gov. Rick Perry, are urging senators to oppose efforts to effectively stop the trial before it starts.

“Anyone that votes against Ken Paxton in this impeachment is risking their entire political career and we will make sure that is the case,” Jonathan Stickland, who runs the pro-Paxton Defend Texas Liberty PAC, said Thursday in a media appearance.

The high-stakes trial of Texas’ top legal official is scheduled to start Sept. 5. It comes after the House impeached Paxton in May, accusing him of a yearslong pattern of misconduct and lawbreaking centered on his relationship with Nate Paul, an Austin real-estate investor and Paxton campaign donor. Paxton, a Republican in his third term, was immediately suspended from office, and the trial will determine whether he will be permanently removed.

Philipp Sandner of Deutsche Welle looks into how the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin may impact several wars taking place in Africa.

For Ryan Cummings, Director at Signal Risk, Centre for Strategies and International Studies, it seems that Wagner's operations in Africa will "continue as they have been doing for the past few months or even years in certain contexts."

Cummings told DW that the future of the mercenary group in Africa remains intact. "If you look at the structure of the Wagner group in countries such as the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan and Libya, there is no immediate indication that there has been a compromise in the relation between the country commanders and the Putin administration."

Even though Prizgozhin is no longer in the picture or commanding Wagner, Cummings stressed that they have continued their operations without significant disruption.

Cummings said he would be very surprised if Russia's President Vladimir Putin were to take control of the Wagner Group. "If anything, there could be some leadership changes at the top of the movement, if that has not already occurred — there might be an assimilation of Wagner:"

Finally today, Juan Arias of El País in English writes about the crisis within Brazil’s military leadership as a result of the failed coup attempt against Brazil’s incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The parliamentary investigations into the failed coup, and the revelations by the Military Police on the plot hatched by Bolsonaro to prevent Lula’s victory, have made the Army high command nervous at the same time as placing the new administration in an uncomfortable position.

It should also be noted that the military leadership is caught between a decline in popular credibility and the need to punish those possibly responsible within the Army for the attempt to overturn the result of the 2022 elections.

This climate of mutual distrust between the government and the military led Lula, on the eve of his international trip for the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg, to convene an urgent meeting with the commanders of the three branches of the Armed Forces. As the columnist Miriam Leitao, who was tortured during the dictatorship, wrote in O Globo: “Only a country in crisis holds a meeting, on a Saturday, from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m., in the presidential palace between the military commanders and the president.”

Skilled in political and union negotiations, Lula took advantage of the meeting to talk about the budget increase for a military that finds itself at a precipice, as on this occasion, it is not only facing a sharp drop in public opinion, but also the displeasure of Bolsonaro’s followers, as revealed in the polls, for not having adhered to the threatened military coup.

Have the best possible day everyone!

The Speaker’s Lobby: Election strategy if 2024 is a Trump vs. Biden rematch

The campaign for President in 2024 won’t all play out in New Hampshire diners and corn fields in Iowa. That’s to say nothing of steel towns in Pennsylvania and dairy farms in Wisconsin.

Let’s presume that President Biden and former President Trump face each other in a 2020 rematch. The battle for the presidency may emerge in two forms. For Democrats who oppose former President Trump: various courtrooms in New York, Miami, Washington, DC and Atlanta. For Republicans who disapprove of President Biden, the venues are closed-door depositions, committee hearings and maybe even articles of impeachment on the House floor.

Democrats think they have the goods on former President Trump on a variety of charges in court – ranging from allegedly stealing secret documents to potentially trying to steal the election. 

THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO WHERE WE STAND WITH IMPEACHMENT

Republicans think they have the goods on President Biden as they probe Hunter Biden, Biden family businesses and potential links to Mr. Biden himself.

It’s unclear if either of these strategies - or hopes of each side – pays dividends with the electorate. But it’s something which party loyalists on both sides watch closely. And Republicans and Democrats alike are agog that the other side isn’t as outraged at the purported transgressions as they are.

Much has been written about the legal woes facing former President Trump and what it means for the 2024 campaign. Let’s explore the Biden family investigations and consequences for next year.

Most Congressional Republicans are determined to link President Biden to some of the legal issues surrounding the president’s son. The torpedoed plea deal for Hunter Biden coupled with testimony from IRS whistleblowers, a closed-door transcript by former Hunter Biden business associate Devon Archer and empaneling of Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss fuels the outrage.

Most Republicans demanded a special counsel to investigate Hunter Biden. But they were aghast when Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Weiss – architect of the now nullified plea agreement.

Weiss offered House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, a series of four dates to testify about his inquiry of Hunter Biden and the plea arrangement this fall. But it’s now far from clear if Weiss will ever appear after becoming special counsel. Most special counsels speak to Congress after their inquiries are complete. As special counsel, Weiss has complete authority to decide whether to testify to Congress.

Democrats continue to stand by Weiss. They applaud his independence and argue they have no reservations with his ability to serve. They also remind people that former President Trump nominated Weiss for his post as Senate-confirmed U.S. Attorney for Delaware.

"It’s just the judicial process taking place," said Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., on Fox.

However, Bera conceded that such allegations and an inquiry wasn’t good for the country.

"Let the legal process take place if there was wrongdoing," said Bera.

But Congressional Republicans won’t do that. They see an opportunity to go for the jugular with President Biden. And if nothing else, their anti-Biden Republican base compels them to move in that direction.

AUGUST IS OFTEN THE STRANGEST MONTH IN POLITICS, AND THIS YEAR IS NO DIFFERENT

"They’ve made it an industry as a family of monetizing access to high people in government," said Rep. Nick Langworthy, R-N.Y. "The evidence just continues to pile up. But it’s a web of lies and deceit as the President continues to deny this involvement."

So what shall we look for?

There’s always the possibility of Weiss’s testimony – although unlikely. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., wants Archer to testify in public soon. There’s also the possibility that Weiss’s investigation doesn’t take that long since he already probed Hunter Biden. That said, some Republicans believe the creation of a special counsel - be it Weiss or someone else - could serve as a way to stymie Congress from investigating further. And Jordan and Comer would like to hear from Garland to explain what went into the decision to appoint Weiss – especially if Weiss won’t appear.

That brings us to the push by some Republicans to begin an impeachment inquiry.

On FOX Business recently, Comer said he intended to subpoena the Biden family. That may be problematic amid Weiss’s inquest. But a House vote to launch a formal impeachment inquiry – and thus call witnesses like the Bidens – could give the House more even footing.

To wit:

Republicans want to know more about the cryptic firms tied to the Biden family.

There are more than 20 shell firms associated with the Bidens.

The cryptic names sometimes echo one another.

Rosemont Seneca Partners. Rosemont Seneca Bohai. Rosemont Seneca Thornton.

Fox asked forensic accountant Bruce Dubinsky to review the Biden family bank records released by the House Oversight panel.

Dubinsky initially focused on the sheer number of shell firms in which the Bidens were involved.

"A shell company is just that. Just a shell. It doesn’t have typically an operating business," said Dubinsky. "They’re used in nefarious ways to either launder money or hide a transaction."

In other words, the mere existence of these firms presents a red flag.

"$20 million flows through these accounts, these fake businesses," alleged Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., on Fox.

Republicans have focused in particular on Yelena Baturina, one of the wealthiest women in Russia. Records from the Oversight panel show Baturina wired Rosemont Seneca Thornton $3.5 million in 2014. $2.5 million of that then appears to have gone to Rosemont Seneca Bohai. Baturina then dined with Mr. Biden in Washington when he was vice president in 2014.

"You see $3.5 million moving, coming inbound from Russia. And then it moves in two transactions to Devon Archer and one of Hunter Biden’s companies. That dollar for dollar - that is the signature of a problem," said Dubinsky.

It’s also unclear whether these firms provided a good or service. Republicans believe the linchpin is to demonstrate the commodity was access to the President when he served as Vice President.

Of course, drawing a straight line between all of this and alleged corruption by President Biden is hard to do – even if it’s true.

But from a political standpoint, it doesn’t necessarily have to be true or go back to the president to inflict damage.

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Republicans know this encourages their base and makes good on various political promises.

Moreover, this is not necessarily a winning political strategy heading into 2024 for the GOP. It’s far from clear if the public is buying into the Republican arguments. And regardless, the ultra high-profile legal travails of former President Trump could overshadow anything House Republicans do in their investigation of the current president.

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Debating the debate that didn’t matter

Someone said Vivek Ramaswamy is a one man GOP primary focus group, rehashing what they (say they) want. Every point.

It’s true and he will assuredly do better with them than with us. How well and for how long remains to be seen. After all, Donald Trump hates people competing for his spotlight, but Ramaswamy gets a pass for now (so long as he defends and sucks up to him).

Tom Nichols/Atlantic magazine:

The GOP’s Dispiriting Display

The Republican debate was a mess.

Beyond the scorekeeping, however, what the GOP debate showed is that the Republicans, as a party, don’t care very much about policy, that the GOP contenders remain in the grip of moral cowardice, and that Fox News is just as bad, if not worse, than it’s ever been.

As for independents, Ramaswamy didn’t do as well as the talking heads claimed. From Navigator Research:

Independent participants in the dial group saw Nikki Haley as the winner of the first Republican presidential primary debate, as most responded positively to her remarks on climate change, education, and foreign policy. After the debate, most participants felt Nikki Haley won the debate (45 percent), 21 points ahead of Ron DeSantis (24 percent), the second leading candidate. Haley’s favorability rose by 24 points after the debate (from 61 percent favorable to 85 percent favorable), 18 points higher than the next most favorably-viewed candidate, Tim Scott (67 percent favorable post-debate). Haley ranked first among participants in saying she was the candidate who “seems like they care the most about people like you” (42 percent), “would be a good role model to kids” (39 percent), and “would be most able to get things done” (27 percent). When asked which candidates “seem most likely to beat Joe Biden,” participants ratings were more diffuse, with 30 percent saying Ron DeSantis, 27 percent saying Nikki Haley, and a tie between Donald Trump and Chris Christie for third (12 percent each).

Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramswamy were the leading candidates behind Trump entering the debate among Republican primary voters, but were not as well received initially by independent participants in this dial group. DeSantis entered the night with negative opinions among these participants (net -19; 36 percent favorable – 55 percent unfavorable) and Ramaswamy came in as an unknown quantity with only 36 percent having an opinion on him (21 percent favorable – 15 percent unfavorable). By the conclusion of the debate, both candidates had net negative favorability ratings among these participants (each net -10; 45 percent favorable – 55 percent unfavorable).

In any case, Trump remains the likely nominee.

DIAL GROUP FINDINGS: Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy each were net negative in their favorability ratings after the debate, as both were seen as polarizing throughout, and a plurality of participants believed Nikki Haley won the debate. pic.twitter.com/2RIHWpqQ9y

— Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) August 24, 2023

Yahoo News:

Poll: DeSantis’s support collapses ahead of 1st GOP debate

The survey of 1,665 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Aug. 17 to 21, shows that DeSantis’s support among potential GOP primary voters has fallen farther — and faster — over the last few weeks than ever before, plummeting from his previous low of 23% in mid-July to just 12% today.

He didn’t exactly help himself during the debate, either (see above).

Reminders: The universe of debate watchers is not the same as the universe of possible primary voters. Particularly when top polling candidate didn't debate! Aftereffects of debate (eg how it's covered) will matter beyond immediate response.

— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) August 24, 2023

Politico:

GOP’s ‘anti-woke’ campaigns have voters hitting snooze

Polls show little support for attacks on corporations’ handling of environmental and social causes — even among Republicans.

The data comes as candidates who have anchored their campaigns in attacking big business — including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — are struggling to gain significant traction against former President Donald Trump, who leads the field by a wide margin in the polls.

GOP pollsters say the recent data shows that many voters on the right, in line with the traditional conservative ideology, don’t want government meddling in business.

Judge Steve Jones sets hearing on Jeffrey Clark's bid to move his Fulton County criminal charges to federal court. He'll hear evidence and argument on the matter on September 18, 2023 at the federal courthouse in Atlanta. pic.twitter.com/HuOzAVAaSA

— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) August 24, 2023

Judge McAfee sets scheduling order for Kenneth Chesebro's trial in Fulton County. Trial to commence October 23, 2023. "At this time, these deadlines do not apply to any co-defendant," McAfee writes. pic.twitter.com/NiccStiVz7

— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) August 24, 2023

Aaron Blake/Washington Post:

Americans aren’t sold on a Biden impeachment inquiry

Most don’t connect Hunter Biden’s problems to the president in the way the GOP has

As for how Americans feel about all of this, we can say a few things:

  • They’ve taken a dim view both of Hunter Biden’s actions and of the fairness of the Justice Department’s investigation of him, believing he might be getting special treatment.
  • They don’t necessarily see much of a link to the president.
  • There appears to be significantly less support for this impeachment inquiry than there was for those involving Donald Trump.

Let’s take each individually.

Isaac Chotiner/New Yorker magazine, interviewing J Michael Luttig:

The Constitutional Case for Barring Trump from the Presidency

Does the Fourteenth Amendment empower state election officials to remove him from the ballot?

What would be an example of something else that would be self-executing in a constitutional amendment?

The most obvious example, Isaac, is the age requirement in order to become President of the United States. So suppose that someone who was thirty-two years old applied to be on the ballot in a given state, and it was undisputed that that person was thirty-two years old and not thirty-five years old. It would be the Constitution itself that would empower that state election official to disqualify that candidate from the ballot for the Presidency.

Removing someone from the ballot because of the age requirement seems like it would be easy for an official to do without making a judgment call. Someone’s age is an objective fact. Whereas this seems like it calls for state officials to make judgment calls, which could potentially open things up for abuse. Is there a categorical difference there?

There is a categorical difference. There is vastly more judgment entailed in determining whether, for instance, the former President engaged in an insurrection or rebellion than in determining whether a candidate was thirty-five years old. That doesn’t relieve the obligated election official from making that determination. The process for placing individuals on the ballot varies from state to state. But, under our reading of the Fourteenth Amendment, an individual election official could make that decision himself or herself.

I'm glad that my Administration’s infrastructure investments are so popular that even Speaker McCarthy is trying to take credit for them, despite voting against them. That’s alright. I’ll see him at the next groundbreaking. https://t.co/IDmJ4hbSDm

— President Biden (@POTUS) August 24, 2023

Franklin & Marshall Poll Release:

About one in three (30%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Biden is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as president, which is a slight improvement from his April ratings (27%). It is normal for an incumbent’s job approval ratings to start to increase at this point in their first term. President Biden’s current rating is lower than President Trump’s and President Obama’s ratings in Pennsylvania at the same point in their terms. Despite this, he still holds an advantage in a head-to-head matchup against the former president, 42% to 40%, although many voters are looking for an alternative to both candidates.

16% want someone else, but we’ll see when it comes down to a binary choice. I suspect more than half will break blue and not red.

Note the improving views of the economy, slowly but steadily:

The August 2023 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that the state’s registered voters’ feelings about their personal finances are starting to improve, although many remain dissatisfied. About two in five (39%) respondents say they are “worse off” than a year ago, which is down from nearly half (46%) in April, and more say they are “better off” financially than they were last year (15% compared to 11%). Pennsylvania voters remain more pessimistic than optimistic about conditions in the state, but this sentiment has also improved--two in five (39%) registered voters believes the state is “headed in the right direction” which is higher than the one in three (32%) who felt that way in April. Concern about the economy (23%), including unemployment and higher gas and utility prices, continues as the most important and often mentioned problem facing the state.

I have been waiting for this one! Every coup has a central figure who connects all the conspirators and also has privileged access to the leader (or leaders, as in the case of some military coups). In the 2021 US coup attempt that person was Meadows. https://t.co/X8v3al6bGr

— Ruth Ben-Ghiat (@ruthbenghiat) August 24, 2023

From Cliff Schecter: