Category: News

Five takeaways as the Pelosi era ends

Posted on (Updated by Mike Lillis

Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) momentous decision to step down from Democratic leadership marks a watershed moment in Washington politics, sending tremors across a Congress where she’s guided her party for the last two decades.

The development carries broad implications for the workings of Capitol Hill, promising to pave the way for a younger generation of Democratic leaders, who will take over with Republicans controlling the House, while altering the image of the party after 20 years with Pelosi at the helm.

Here are five takeaways as the Pelosi era is set to end.

A woman in charge 

Pelosi is a historic figure, becoming the most powerful elected woman in U.S. history when she assumed the Speakership in 2007, then repeated the feat again in 2019 after a long stint in the minority. It’s a distinction she still holds.

From that unique perspective, she championed bill after bill to advance women’s causes — including efforts this year to codify Roe vs. Wade following the Supreme Court’s decision to eliminate abortion rights. And Pelosi’s speech on Thursday from the House floor — where she introduced herself as not only Speaker, but “a wife, a mother, a grandmother” — was thick with references to the progress women have made since she was first elected 35 years ago — and the long strides that remain. 

“When I came to the Congress in 1987, there were 12 Democratic women. Now there are over 90,” she said. “And we want more.”

Pelosi’s legislative legacy is well known: She muscled through proposals as consequential as ObamaCare, the sweeping Wall Street reforms that followed the Great Recession and the massive climate package signed by President Biden this year. 

More than that, she carved a well-earned reputation for counting votes and convincing reluctant lawmakers to support controversial legislation, even when it damaged them politically. 

The combination made her among the most effective Speakers in U.S. history — and inspired women to follow her into politics.  

“She’s broken glass ceilings and been a true role model for generations of women — including myself,” said Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.).  

A unifying speech 

Pelosi comes from a family steeped in the traditions of the Democratic Party — her father was a member of the House through much of the 1940s — and she can be fiercely partisan in her confrontations with Republicans on countless issues of politics and policy. But her speech on Thursday avoided the type of partisan fire breathing that’s become routine on Capitol Hill. 

Instead, Pelosi sought to meet the moment with a message of unity and high ideals, invoking legendary Republican figures like Daniel Webster and Abraham Lincoln to make the case that fighting for the country’s founding principles is a shared business. 

“We owe to the American people our very best, to deliver on their faith,” she said. “To forever reach for the more perfect union — the glorious horizon that our founders promised.”

If there was a partisan jab at the Republicans on Thursday, it was not what Pelosi said but what she left out. In referencing the presidents she’s “enjoyed working with,” Pelosi mentioned George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden — but not Donald Trump. 

It was a glaring omission, though it didn’t appear to bother the handful of GOP lawmakers who were in the chamber to hear the speech.

“I thought it was very positive,” said Rep. Joe Wilson (S.C.), who was among those Republicans on hand. “I was happy to be there.” 

Changing of the guard 

Pelosi’s decision paves the way for a “new generation” of liberals to rise in the Democratic ranks, breaking the leadership logjam that the “big three” — Pelosi, Steny Hoyer (Md.) and James Clyburn (S.C.) — have formed over their two-decade tenure.

“For me, the hour has come for a new generation to lead the Democratic Caucus that I so deeply respect,” Pelosi said in her remarks.

Minutes after the Speaker’s decision, Hoyer — who has served as Pelosi’s No. 2 for years — announced that he would also step back from Democratic leadership next year, setting the scene for a seismic shakeup at the top echelons of the caucus that will usher in a new slate of liberal leaders. Clyburn has said he intends to remain in leadership, but has not indicated which position.

The announcements were music to the ears of younger, restive lawmakers whose ambitions have been frustrated for years by the leadership bottleneck at the very top. 

But that changing of the guard, while officially put into motion on Thursday, has been the talk of Washington for months. Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Caucus Vice Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) are viewed as the heirs apparent to the “big three.”

None of them, however, announced bids on Thursday, opting to make their longtime leader the focus of the day.

“We’re all just trying to process what we heard and honor the legacy of Speaker Pelosi, what she’s meant to that chamber, what she’s meant to the California delegation and what she’s meant to me personally,” Aguilar told reporters. “Those are the things I’m reflecting on right now.”

But while Pelosi and Hoyer are both on their way to becoming rank-and-file members, they’re viewing the move differently.

“I feel balanced about it all,” the Speaker told reporters in the Capitol. “I’m not sad at all.”

Hoyer, on the other hand, asked how it feels to step out of the leadership, responded, “Not good.”

A divided Congress and country

Party polarization has worsened dramatically over the course of Pelosi’s years on Capitol Hill. And the House chamber during Pelosi’s speech was a glaring portrait of the stark partisan divisions that plague both the Congress and the country. 

On one side were Pelosi’s Democratic allies, who filled virtually every chair and cheered her numerous times during the 16-minute address. On the other were just a handful of Republicans — and hundreds of empty seats.

The Republicans who were on hand — including Minority Whip Steve Scalise (La.) — were glowing in their characterization of the outgoing Speaker, even as they emphasized their policy differences.

“It has been historic,” said Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.). “She’s been strong for her conference all this time. There’s a rivalry with opposite teams and all that stuff, but you know, at the end of the day, we all try to remember and reflect on how you get along with people.”

Still, the empty GOP seats were a ready reminder of the tensions that linger between the parties, particularly following last year’s attack on the Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) was among the absent Republicans. And some Democrats said they weren’t surprised by the GOP no-shows. 

“I have unfortunately come to expect an utter lack of regard for civility, collegiality, institutional respect, and frankly even respect for the American public,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) said of the Republicans. 

“The American public sent them a message, whether they want to accept it or not, last Tuesday. Which was: We want less of that. We want less divisiveness, less anger, less of this craziness and a lot more civility and respect,” he continued. “And it’s as if they heard nothing.”

Warning about democracy 

The final chapter of Pelosi’s tenure as Democratic leader will be marked by her dogged defense of American democracy — even when it put her in direct conflict with her political foes.

As Speaker, Pelosi led two impeachments of former President Trump, established a select committee to investigate the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, and ensured that the House would reconvene after the rampage to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election — in the very chamber rioters had infiltrated.

In her remarks on Thursday, Pelosi took pains not to attack Republicans, but argued clearly for the importance of safeguarding America’s founding principles if the country is to survive. 

“American Democracy is majestic – but it is fragile,” the Speaker said. “Many of us here have witnessed its fragility firsthand – tragically, in this Chamber. And so, Democracy must be forever defended from forces that wish it harm.”

Pelosi’s decision to step down came just a day after the formal midterm results had turned the House to Republican control. But it was Democrats who had overperformed at the polls, preventing the considerable gains that GOP leaders had expected. 

In warning about the fragility of democracy, Pelosi made the case that voters recognized it, too.

“Last week, the American people spoke,” she said. “And their voices were raised in defense of liberty, of the rule of law and of Democracy itself.”

House Democrats assess a transformed Washington after losing majority

Posted on (Updated by Mike Lillis

Correction: An earlier version of this report incorrectly characterized Hunter Biden.

House Democrats were knocked out of power at the polls this month, losing at least six seats to a Republican Party that will take control of the lower chamber next year with designs to neutralize President Biden through the second half of his first term.

CNN and NBC both projected that Republicans would take the House majority on Wednesday evening, with a handful of races still to be decided. Republicans could still win several more seats, but they are expected to have a very narrow majority.

The GOP takeover had been expected long before last week’s midterm elections, but it took eight days of counting close returns for Republicans to hit the magic number — 218 — that grants them control of the House in the next Congress.

The delay was an unwelcome development for GOP leaders, who charged into the elections with high expectations of sweeping vulnerable Democrats from battleground districts coast to coast. Their victory celebration was scheduled for election night, on Nov. 8. 

Instead, a vast majority of those Democratic “frontliners” held firm. And many of the races Republicans ultimately won were so close that verification took days. The surprising results mean that Republicans will take over the chamber next year with a much smaller majority than they had hoped — a dynamic that will likely create headaches for GOP leaders in managing a restive right flank.

Indeed, those internal struggles already surfaced this week surrounding Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) bid to win the Speakership next year. On Tuesday, McCarthy easily won the GOP nomination for that spot. But the three dozen Republican defectors were both a warning that he has work to do in order to secure the gavel when the full House votes on Jan. 3, and a preview of the internal battles to come, regardless of which Republican emerges as Speaker. 

Still, the midterm outcome lends enormous new powers to Republicans on Capitol Hill, transforming the workings of Washington after four years when Democrats ran the lower chamber. And the flip carries enormous implications for both parties heading into the final two years of Biden’s first term in the White House.

Most significantly, the president will no longer have his allies empowered to advance the administration’s legislative goals on the House floor, likely bringing Biden’s ambitious policy agenda to a screeching halt next year. 

Nor will Democrats be able to shield Biden on the committee level, where Republicans are already promising a long and growing list of politically fraught investigations into everything from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan to the overseas business dealings of the president’s youngest son Hunter Biden. 

Democrats are keenly aware of the potential political perils lurking behind such investigations. The House Republicans’ marathon Benghazi probe undermined Hillary Clinton’s prospects in the 2016 presidential race. And a steady focus on Biden controversies in the next Congress could do similar damage to the president and the Democrats heading into the 2024 cycle, when former President Trump could be on the ballot. 

And Republicans might not stop at mere investigations. 

Democrats, who had impeached Trump twice during his tenure, might find themselves on the other side of that issue under a GOP-controlled House, where conservatives are already making clear their intentions to impeach Biden, members of his Cabinet or both.

The midterm results also put a new spin on the old questions swirling around the future of the Democratic leaders in the lower chamber, where Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and her top two deputies — Reps. Steny Hoyer (Md.) and James Clyburn (S.C.) — have been in place for almost two decades. All three are in their 80s, and a younger group of ambitious lawmakers has been itching for years for the chance to climb into the leadership ranks. 

Four years ago, Pelosi had pledged to bow out of the top leadership spot at the end of this term — a promise Hoyer and Clyburn were not party to. But the Democrats’ overperformance on Election Day would have been impossible without Pelosi’s prodigious fundraising, and it’s sparked new chatter that the long-time Democratic leader could easily remain in power — if she chooses to do so.

The Speaker, true to style, has declined to announce her intentions. And the Democrats’ leadership elections are not scheduled until Nov. 30, lending her a window to weigh that decision. Still, the new midterm tally, sending Democrats into the minority next year, is expected to expedite her announcement. 

Meanwhile, Pelosi’s reticence has left other top leaders in a state of limbo, waiting for word of her plans so they can declare their own. 

Neither Hoyer nor Clyburn has ruled out another leadership bid. And a trio of younger Democratic leaders — Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), Katherine Clark (Mass.) and Pete Aguilar (Calif.) — are waiting to run for the top spots when the opportunity arrives. 

Jeffries, the current chair of the Democratic Caucus, is widely believed to be the favorite to replace Pelosi should she step down. But Hoyer has loyalists of his own. And Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who built a national following as lead manager of Trump’s first impeachment, has raised enormous amounts of money this cycle and is said to be eyeing the spot. 

Other Democrats vying for leadership positions include Rep. Joe Neguse (Colo.), who’s seeking to replace Jeffries as Caucus chairman. And at least four lawmakers — Reps. Debbie Dingell (Mich.), Joyce Beatty (Ohio), Ted Lieu (Calif.) and Madeleine Dean (Pa.) — are competing to replace Aguilar as caucus vice chairman. 

Rounding out the list of top leaders, Rep. Tony Cárdenas (Calif.) has launched a run to lead the Democrats’ campaign arm in the next Congress, a spot soon to be vacated after Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney lost a tough reelection race in upstate New York. 

Rep. Ami Bera (Calif.), who was in charge of protecting vulnerable incumbents for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) this cycle, is expected to jump into the race against Cárdenas. 

There are other changes in store, as well. 

The Democrats’ 2023 roster was bound to look much different even long before the midterm results came in, due to a wave of retirements that featured some of the leading figures in the party. 

The list of outgoing lawmakers includes Reps. Pete DeFazio (Ore.), a 36-year veteran who heads the Transportation Committee; John Yarmuth (Ky.), chairman of the Budget Committee; Cheri Bustos (Ill.), who led the DCCC in the 2020 cycle; Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), a member of the Jan. 6 committee investigating last year’s attack on the Capitol and a co-chair of the centrist Blue Dogs; and Bobby Rush (Ill.), a 30-year veteran who remains the only politician ever to defeat Barack Obama in an election. 

The midterms also took a toll. And when they return next year, Democrats will be without several prominent lawmakers who lost reelection battles on Tuesday. That list includes Reps. Elaine Luria (Va.), another member of the Jan. 6 committee; Tom Malinowski (N.J.), a former human rights activist and diplomat under the Obama administration; and Tom O’Halleran (Ariz.), a Republican-turned-moderate Democrat who also co-chairs the Blue Dogs. 

Yet it was Maloney who was the biggest trophy for Republicans at the polls. The 10-year veteran proved highly successful in protecting vulnerable seats in a cycle when Democrats were expecting big losses, but he couldn’t protect his own. 

"It will take time to understand all of the races and their outcomes,” Maloney told reporters in Washington shortly after conceding to his Republican opponent. But even in defeat, he took a small victory lap. 

“If we fall a little short, we're going to know that we gave it our all,” he said. “And we beat the spread.”

--Updated on Nov. 17 at 6:12 a.m.

House Democrat eyes legislation to bar Trump from office under 14th Amendment

Posted on (Updated by Mychael Schnell

Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) is eyeing legislation that would bar former President Trump from serving in office under the 14th Amendment “for leading an insurrection against the United States.”

Cicilline, who served as an impeachment manager during Trump’s first impeachment, sent a letter to his Democratic colleagues Tuesday night previewing a bill to prevent Trump from holding office and soliciting co-sponsors for the measure.

It is unclear when the congressman plans to introduce the bill. The listed deadline for lawmakers to co-sponsor the measure is Thursday at noon.

The Rhode Island Democrat circulated the letter the same night Trump announced his 2024 campaign for president.

“Given the proof – demonstrated through the January 6th Committee Hearings, the 2021 impeachment trial, and other reporting – that Donald Trump engaged in insurrection on January 6th with the intention of overturning the lawful 2020 election results, I have drafted legislation that would prevent Donald Trump from holding public office again under the Fourteenth Amendment,” Cicilline wrote.

Trump was impeached for a second time in January 2021 on the charge of “incitement of insurrection” following the Capitol riot, but the Senate ultimately acquitted him. The House impeached him for a first time in December 2019 for “abuse of power” and “obstruction of Congress” over revelations regarding his dealings with Ukraine, though the Senate acquitted him of both charges.

Cicilline argued that Trump should be barred from holding office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, known as the “Disqualification Clause,” which says individuals should not be allowed “to hold any office” if they “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

The congressman said his bill “details testimony and evidence demonstrating how Donald Trump engaged in insurrection against the United States,” pointing to revelations from Jan. 6 select committee hearings.

“It specifically details how Donald Trump engaged in insurrection when he helped to plan and encouraged the insurgence on January 6th despite knowing that the election results were lawful; attempted to intimidate state and federal officials when they did not support his false claims and unlawful plans; tried to manipulate Mike Pence into unlawfully refusing to certify the election results, despite Mr. Pence’s and legal advisors’ assertion that he held no such authority; and supported the violent insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, refusing for hours to denounce or act against the mob and putting thousands of lives in danger,” the letter reads.

If he introduces the bill, Cicilline will have to lay out the process for how the measure would use Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the text is vague.

“It is unclear whether Section 3 is self-executing, which, if it is not, would leave federal and state courts or election authorities without power to determine the eligibility of candidates unless Congress enacts legislation to permit it. Courts have produced mixed results on this question,” the CRS report reads.

“Section 3 does not expressly provide a procedure for its implementation other than Section 5’s general authority of Congress ‘to enforce [the Fourteenth Amendment’ by appropriate legislation,’” it adds.

Trump announced his intention for a third presidential bid Tuesday night at his Mar-a-Lago resort, telling the audience at the event "we always have known that this was not the end. It was only the beginning of our fight to rescue the American dream."

"In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States," he added.

Justin Amash offers to serve as ‘nonpartisan’ Speaker

Posted on (Updated by Emily Brooks

Former Rep. Justin Amash (Mich.) has offered to serve as a “nonpartisan” Speaker of the House if Republicans and Democrats cannot agree on a candidate from either party to fill the post.

The offer from Amash, a former Republican-turned-Libertarian lawmaker, comes as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) faces opposition from some members of his party, complicating his Speakership bid.

“If neither party has the votes to elect a speaker of the House, I’d be happy to serve as a nonpartisan speaker who ensures the institution works as it’s supposed to—a place where all ideas are welcome and where outcomes are discovered through the process, not dictated from above,” Amash said in a tweet on Tuesday.

Amash was elected as a Republican in the 2010 Tea Party wave, and built a reputation of being staunchly critical of the top-down nature of congressional power. He was the first Republican to call for then-President Trump’s impeachment in 2019 and later that year left the GOP to become an independent. 

In 2020, Amash registered as a Libertarian, becoming the party’s first member of Congress. He considered running for president as a third-party candidate but decided against it, and left the House at the end of his term.

The Speaker is not required to be an elected member of Congress, but every one so far has been.

House Republicans chose McCarthy as their nominee for Speaker in closed-door, secret-ballot elections on Tuesday. But he faced a last-minute protest challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, who has knocked McCarthy’s plans for House rules management and his reluctance to pursue impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

McCarthy easily won the House GOP Speaker nomination over Biggs, 188 to 31. But he will have to win a majority of votes on the House floor — 218 votes, assuming a fully sworn-in House — in order to win the gavel. 

With an expected slim majority for House Republicans, McCarthy will have just a few votes to spare for Republican defections on the House floor — far fewer than 31. McCarthy and his allies project confidence that he will win the floor vote, but it is unclear how many Republicans are set on voting against him.

Not every member of the Freedom Caucus agrees with challenging McCarthy, though. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has thrown her support behind McCarthy, arguing that division among Republicans could lead some moderate defectors to join with Democrats and elect a less conservative Speaker as a compromise.

Election projections as of Wednesday morning put Republicans just one seat away from securing the House majority, with nine seats undecided. Republicans are confident they will win control of the chamber.

There is historical precedent for a fair amount of uncertainty in Speakership elections — it took two months and 133 ballots to elect Speaker Nathaniel P. Banks in 1856, according to the House historian — and the GOP's majority come January is expected to be its narrowest in decades.

A major factor at play for the McCarthy antagonists are proposed House and GOP Conference rules changes. The House Freedom Caucus has proposed rules changes that, on the whole, would chip away at leadership’s power and give more to individual members. That aligns with the argument from Amash, who was a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, but left the group around the time he left the GOP.

The House GOP will start consideration of internal conference rules changes on Wednesday afternoon. In an olive branch to the Freedom Caucus concerns, McCarthy on Tuesday said that the House GOP would consider just half of the rules change requests on Wednesday and the other half after Thanksgiving.

Trump jumps into 2024 race with GOP at crossroads

Posted on (Updated by Brett Samuels

President Trump is mounting a comeback bid with the hope that the GOP will once again rally behind him — just as some Republicans worry nominating him for president for a third time is a recipe for failure at the ballot box.

The former president announced the launch of his 2024 presidential campaign from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida Tuesday night, claiming the country has slipped into anarchy under President Biden and arguing he could repeat the policy successes of his first term. 

But he did so at a time when the calls from some party members to move on from Trump are as loud as they’ve been since he left office under the cloud of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and a second impeachment.

Trump pointed to a strong economy before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, reworked trade deals and a brash approach to international relations that kept the U.S. out of foreign conflicts as a case for another term.

But he ignored the major concerns some in the party have about his viability, steering clear of his pandemic response and his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol and absolving himself of blame for the party’s underwhelming midterm showing.

“The voting will be much different. 2024. Are you getting ready?” Trump said to applause. “I am, too.”

Republicans are sifting through the aftermath of last week’s midterm elections, where expected sweeping victories never materialized. Democrats will hold on to their majority in the Senate, while Republicans appear poised to retake the House with a smaller margin than many hoped.

For some prominent figures in the party, it served as an inflection point. And while many did not name Trump explicitly, their message was clear: The party can choose to move away from making Trump central to everything it does, or it can risk more stinging defeats in 2024.

“We underperformed among independents and moderates, because their impression of many of the people in our party in leadership roles is that they’re involved in chaos, negativity, excessive attacks, and it frightened independent and moderate Republican voters,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who served alongside Trump for four years, said on SiriusXM that the candidates who fared best in the midterms offered forward-looking solutions to major problems like inflation and crime, while “candidates that were focused on relitigating the last election, I think, did not fare as well.”

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) called the 2022 midterms “the funeral for the Republican Party as we know it.”

And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who is viewed as perhaps Trump’s chief rival for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, expressed concern that the party was unable to capitalize on Biden’s unpopularity with many voters.

“These independent voters aren’t voting for our candidates, even with Biden in the White House and the failures that we’re seeing. That’s a problem,” DeSantis said Tuesday.

Some of the blame for the GOP’s underwhelming midterm performance has fallen on Trump, whose endorsements helped carry candidates through Senate, House and gubernatorial primaries but not to victory in the general elections. 

Trump made a point to address the midterm outcome during his speech, and he even acknowledged the party was facing deserved criticism. But the criticism should not be directed at him, Trump said.

Many of Trump’s highest profile and most meaningful endorsements lost in the general election: Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania’s Senate and gubernatorial races, respectively; Blake Masters and Kari Lake in Arizona’s Senate and gubernatorial races, respectively; Tudor Dixon in Michigan’s gubernatorial race; Tim Michels in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race; and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire’s Senate race.

Trump instead blamed voters for the poor showing for Republicans, suggesting they did not yet realize how bad the Biden administration’s policies would be for them.

“Citizens of our country have not yet realized the pain our country is going through … they don’t quite feel it yet. But they will very soon,” Trump said. “I have no doubt that by 2024 it will sadly be much worse, and they will see much more clearly what happened.”

The midterm results have left Trump’s influence within the party at perhaps its most precarious point since right after he left the White House, when many Republicans appeared ready to distance themselves from Trump after he spent months whipping supporters into a frenzy over the 2020 election, culminating in the riot at the Capitol.

While that criticism faded and much of the GOP has remained loyal to Trump in the two years since, the question now is whether the former president can stave off the push among some conservatives to move on to a candidate who can carry on Trump’s brand of politics without the baggage.

Pence has indicated he is giving thought to a 2024 presidential bid, as has former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Both have said Trump’s campaign launch will not affect their decisions.

DeSantis, meanwhile, has become the star of the moment for many conservatives, earning fawning coverage from Fox News and the New York Post after a landslide reelection win last week.

The conservative Club for Growth, which broke with Trump on some of his midterm endorsements, released a poll on the eve of his 2024 announcement showing DeSantis leading Trump in head-to-head match-ups in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as their home state of Florida.

A Politico-Morning Consult poll released this week, however, was more favorable for Trump, finding that 47 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would back him in a presidential primary if it were held today, compared to 33 percent who said they’d support the Florida governor.

Since 2015, the party has been molded in Trump’s image. He reshaped the way the GOP discusses immigration, international alliances and trade. He brought scores of new voters into the fold, solidified the party’s hold on states like Ohio and Florida and developed a devoted following, giving him a remarkably high floor of support within the party.

But Trump has also turned off independent and moderate voters with his unpredictability, his constant personal attacks on those who criticize or oppose him, his fixation on the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen and his legal entanglements over his business dealings and handling of classified documents, the latter of which involved a search of the property where he made Tuesday night’s announcement.

Tuesday’s speech served as the start of what will be a lengthy decisionmaking process for the GOP about whether it will remain Trump’s party for the foreseeable future, or if the electorate is ready to move on.

"The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Trump said. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand.”

McCarthy wins GOP vote for Speakership handily over right-wing challenge

Posted on (Updated by Emily Brooks

House Republicans nominated Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) to be Speaker in a closed-door conference meeting on Tuesday after he faced a last-minute protest challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), a former chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

McCarthy won easily, 188 to 31, in the internal conference meeting. But in the eyes of Biggs and his supporters, the goal was merely to demonstrate that McCarthy lacks the support to seize the gavel when the full House meets to choose the Speaker early next year.

The 31 votes opposing McCarthy easily met that threshold, raising immediate questions about how McCarthy — who had failed to ascend to Speaker in 2015 — will make up the difference between now and then. 

The secret-ballot House Republican Conference vote is just the first step for McCarthy to take hold of the gavel. He must win a majority in a public vote on the House floor — at least 218 votes, assuming a fully sworn-in House — on the first day of the next Congress on Jan. 3.

Tuesday’s vote came as the final breakdown of House control remains unknown, with around a dozen races undecided and election projections putting Republicans just one vote shy of securing the majority.

The exact size of the slimmer-than-expected majority will have major implications for the rest of McCarthy’s path to the gavel, since he will be able to spare only a handful of defectors on the House floor. Rules changes and committee assignments may be among the bargaining chips McCarthy uses to woo opponents back to his side before Jan. 3. 

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a Freedom Caucus member who nominated Biggs for Speaker during the conference meeting on Tuesday, said that his position on McCarthy’s chances at becoming Speaker remained unchanged after Tuesday’s nomination.

“No one has 218 (or close, as needed). We have to sit down and establish the fundamental changes needed,” Roy said in a statement.

In a press conference, McCarthy said he thinks he will have the votes by January to become Speaker, pointing out that former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and current Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) similarly fell short of 218 votes in their internal party nominations before later securing the Speakership on the House floor. But he acknowledged it could be tough.

"Look, we have our work cut out for us. We've got to have a small majority. We've got to listen to everybody in our conference," McCarthy said.

But Biggs said on former Trump adviser Stephen Bannon’s “War Room” podcast on Tuesday that there are a “significant number of hard noes” for McCarthy in the House GOP.

The Freedom Caucus is pushing for changes to internal conference rules that, on the whole, would chip away at leadership’s power and give more to individual members — a major dynamic at play in Biggs’s challenge to McCarthy. 

One of those requests is restoring any member’s ability to make a motion to vacate the chair, which would force a recall vote on the Speaker. Then-Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), a Freedom Caucus co-founder, made the motion in 2015, contributing to a rebellion that ended in former GOP Speaker John Boehner (Ohio) resigning from Congress later that year.

McCarthy is opposed to the change, arguing that it would give too much power to Democratic members.

The House GOP conference was set to vote on rules on Wednesday, much to the frustration of Freedom Caucus members, who requested that a vote on the rules happen before leadership elections.

But in what may be a sign of McCarthy being willing to negotiate more on rules, he announced on Tuesday that some rules changes would be considered on Wednesday and others considered after Thanksgiving, according to a person with knowledge of the meeting.

Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), a 36-year House veteran, acknowledged that McCarthy has his work cut out for him.

"Nothing's easy," said Upton, who's retiring at the end of this term. "He's going to work hard, I'm sure."

Upton said the dynamics remind him of the race to replace Boehner in 2015, when conservative opposition forced McCarthy to drop out of the contest. But with one major difference.

"Unlike before when, in essence, Kevin threw in the towel, he's not going to do it this time," Upton said. "They had an easy path before when Kevin backed off. He's not backing off this time."

Both supporters and opponents of McCarthy acknowledged a major difference between the internal nomination vote and the Jan. 3 vote that could improve McCarthy’s level of support: On the House floor, votes will be public and not secret — likely influencing those who do not want to upset McCarthy to vote for him.

Biggs launched a late challenge to McCarthy on Monday night and did not make a presentation beforehand at a House GOP leadership candidate forum, during which McCarthy got standing ovations.

“We have a new paradigm here, and I think the country wants a different direction from the House of Representatives,” Biggs said on Newsmax Monday night. He has previously expressed disappointment with McCarthy downplaying the prospects of impeachment for Biden administration officials like Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

Reps. Michael Cloud (Texas) and Ralph Norman (S.C.) seconded Roy’s nomination of Biggs in the conference meeting on Tuesday, according to a source in the room. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (N.D.) was among those who gave a speech in support of McCarthy.

Not all members of the Freedom Caucus agree with the tactic of challenging McCarthy, however.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), once a doubter of McCarthy’s ability to become Speaker, has become one of his most vocal supporters for the post — as she hopes to secure favorable committee assignments in the next Congress. A slim majority, she fears, could cause moderate Republicans to join Democrats and elect a compromise moderate candidate.

“We have to elect Kevin McCarthy,” Greene told reporters Monday. “I can’t support a challenge that will allow the Democrats to elect their own Speaker by pulling some of ours.”

The Speakership has been a longtime goal for McCarthy, who has been active in Republican politics since his young adulthood.

“Can I be Speaker?” McCarthy said in jest to a member presiding over the House at one point during an overnight, record-breaking speech on the House floor last year, when he delayed passage of a major Democratic tax, climate and spending bill.

After rising to minority leader in the California State Assembly, the Bakersfield, Calif., Republican was elected to the U.S. House in 2006, eventually rising through the leadership ranks from chief deputy whip to whip to majority leader.

But Biggs’s challenge is the latest chapter in the saga of McCarthy battling and wooing the House GOP’s right flank. 

First came the conservative opposition that sank his 2015 Speakership bid, and then in 2018, Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), another member of the House Freedom Caucus, challenged him in the race for GOP leader.

But as the top House Republican for the last four years, McCarthy has given the right flank a seat at the table, unlike some of his leadership predecessors. 

Jordan is set to become chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and is fully supporting McCarthy. Greene was invited to participate in McCarthy’s “Commitment to America” policy platform rollout in September.

And perhaps most notably, McCarthy quickly mended his relationship with former President Trump after saying that Trump bore responsibility for the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack, traveling to Mar-a-Lago to meet with him weeks later.

Trump threw his support behind McCarthy for Speaker before last week’s elections. McCarthy has not endorsed the former president running for a third time in 2024, which Trump is expected to announce Tuesday night.

Mike Lillis contributed.

Updated 6:10 p.m.

Greene: Any McCarthy challenge would be ‘bad strategy’

Posted on (Updated by Emily Brooks

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) argued against any challenge to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) atop the GOP conference, worrying that it could have unintended negative consequences in a slim majority.

"I actually think that’s a bad strategy when we’re looking at having a very razor-thin majority, with potentially 219 — we’re talking about one vote," Greene said on former Trump adviser Stephen Bannon’s "War Room" podcast Monday morning.

Greene’s comments came amid reports that Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), a former chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is weighing a protest run against McCarthy.

Biggs told reporters Monday afternoon that no one currently has 218 votes to be Speaker. His spokesman told The Hill there will be an alternative challenger to McCarthy but did not confirm it would be Biggs.

A handful of moderate House Republicans could join Democrats to support a compromise Speaker candidate such as Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Greene warned Monday.

"It's very, very risky right now to produce a leadership challenge, especially for Speaker of the House, when they are going to open the door and allow Liz Cheney, possibly, to become Speaker," Greene said on the podcast.

Cheney will not return to Congress next year, but House rules allow for a nonmember to be elected Speaker. Such a scenario, though, is not considered serious, and she is not campaigning for the post.

Greene last year doubted McCarthy would have the votes to be Speaker but has since grown close with the GOP leader. She was included at a House GOP platform event in Pennsylvania in September, and she is hoping to be placed on the House Oversight and Reform Committee after McCarthy vowed to restore her membership in committees as Speaker.

“I think that to be the best Speaker of the House and to please the base, he’s going to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway,” Greene said in a New York Times magazine profile published last month.

House Republicans are scheduled to elect conference leaders on Tuesday, which includes nominating a Speaker candidate. The nominee needs a majority of House Republicans in a secret ballot to get the nomination and then a majority — at least 218 votes in a fully sworn-in chamber — on the House floor to win the Speakership on the first day of the new Congress in January.

Conservative members of the House, including multiple members of the House Freedom Caucus, have withheld support for McCarthy over his resistance to rules change demands from the caucus that would chip away at leadership’s power.

Biggs told reporters last week that McCarthy’s reluctance to bring up impeachment articles — he has said multiple times that he would not pursue a “political” impeachment — made him question whether McCarthy should be Speaker.

The Arizona congressman has introduced impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

“I think that his statement recently that we shouldn't impeach Secretary Mayorkas indicates maybe we're not gonna be as aggressive going forward as we should be,” Biggs told reporters last week.

Toomey blames Trump for GOP midterm losses

Posted on (Updated by Alexander Bolton

Retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) blamed former President Trump for Republicans losing the Pennsylvania Senate race and other close races this week, asserting there was “a high correlation between MAGA candidates and big losses.”  

Toomey, who twice won election in Pennsylvania in 2010 and 2016, said Trump created political problems for Republican candidate Mehmet Oz, who tried to distance himself from the former president's claims that the 2020 election was stolen through widespread fraud.  

“President Trump had to insert himself and that changed the nature of the race and that created just too much of an obstacle,” Toomey said on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront.”  

“And by the way, it’s not just Pennsylvania. You look all over the country, there’s a very high correlation between MAGA candidates and big losses, or at least dramatically underperforming,” he added, referring to Trump’s slogan: Make America Great Again.  

Toomey predicted that the poor performance of Trump-backed candidates, especially those who embraced his unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud, will “accelerate” the former president’s loss of influence in the party.  

"So here's my theory on the case, is that there is not going to be one discrete moment at which the fever breaks and Donald Trump becomes irrelevant. That's not likely to happen. What I think is: his influence wanes,” Toomey said. 

“And a debacle like we had Tuesday night, from a Republican point of view, accelerates the pace at which that influence wanes,” he said.  

Toomey highlighted what he called “interesting data points” showing that Trump’s popularity in the party isn’t what it was even a year ago.  

“A year or two ago, if you ask Republican voters — ‘Do they consider themselves more traditional Republicans or Donald Trump Republicans?’ — he had a huge lead. That has flipped. And that’s telling, I think. I think that’s going to continue.” 

Toomey was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in February of 2021 on the impeachment charge that he incited the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. 

Other prominent Republicans are also blaming Trump for their party’s disappointing performance on Election Day.  

While Republicans are poised to capture control of the House and still have a chance to win the Senate, the red wave that many of them expected failed to form as Republican voters turned out to the polls in lower numbers than projected.  

Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said the GOP is suffering from a “Trump hangover.”

"I think Trump's kind of a drag on our ticket. I think Donald Trump gives us problems politically," he told a local television reporter in Janesville, Wis.  

"We lost the House, the Senate and the White House in two years when Trump was on the ballot, or in office," he said. "I think we just have some Trump hangover. I think he's a drag on our ... races."

Senate Republican strategists weren’t thrilled that Trump decided to hold a rally with Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano in Latrobe, Pa., the Saturday before Election Day.  

One Senate Republican adviser warned before the event that it was “probably not” a good idea to appear on stage with Trump and Mastriano, an outspoken election denier and opponent of abortion rights, whom Democrats tried to tie to Oz.  

But the adviser acknowledged it was almost impossible for Oz to spurn Trump’s invitation to appear at a rally after the former president’s endorsement helped him beat hedge fund CEO David McCormick in the tightly contested Senate GOP primary.

“What are you going to do?” the source lamented, knowing that Trump’s appearance with Oz didn’t present the best optic for swing voters right before going to the polls.  

Mike Lillis contributed.  

Disappointed House GOP reels ahead of choosing next leaders

Posted on (Updated by Emily Brooks

Shell shock over midterm results is shaking up the House GOP conference ahead of internal leadership elections next week.House Republicans are still almost certain to capture control of the lower chamber, but their majority will be far smaller than anticipated and Democrats managed to capture or hold a number of key districts. While there is widespread disappointment within the GOP over an expected red wave looking more like a red ripple, there is not consensus on who or what is to blame.  

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who is tasked with getting House Republicans elected, both want to move up the ranks in the next session, but both risk becoming targets of GOP anger about the midterms. 

“This is like the epitome of overpromising and under-delivering, which is something that you do not want to do in politics,” said a senior GOP leadership staff member granted anonymity to speak candidly. “This is seriously disappointing, and it will have wide implications for people in leadership.” 

What those implications will be for McCarthy — who suggested a year ago that Republicans could flip 60 seats or more — are unclear. Few expect any serious challenge to his Speakership vote, but the right flank of the conference is starting to direct anger his way. 

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), the former chair of the confrontational conservative House Freedom Caucus, said of McCarthy’s Speakership chances in an interview with former Newsmax host Emerald Robinson on Wednesday: “Not so fast.” 

“We were told we were going to have an incredible, incredible wave, and if that would’ve been the case — I mean, 20-, 30-, 40-seat margin, anywhere in there, you would say, ‘OK, Kevin’s the presumptive Republican nominee for Speaker.’ But I think we need to have a discussion. He’s backpedaled on things like impeachment,” Biggs said. 

“If we’re going to go in for eight months of performance art instead of really getting things done, then we will fail in preparing for a 2024 election where we have to win to get the White House, the Senate and the House back,” Biggs said. 

The GOP leader has given firebrand right-flank members like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) a seat at the table in the hope of shoring up his Speakership bid and to avoid the exact kind of threat that Biggs forecasted.  

But some say that strategy seems to have backfired. Former George W. Bush speechwriter Marc Thiessen commented on Fox News that Greene being positioned behind McCarthy at a platform rollout event in Pennsylvania gave fuel to “Democrats’ anti-MAGA strategy.” 

“You’ve got to put your foot down” to prevent the “crazies” from running the conference and trying to exploit a slimmed majority, the senior GOP staffer said.  

McCarthy and members of his whip team started making calls to members on Wednesday to shore up his votes for Speaker and believe he will prevail in the election. Those arguing in McCarthy’s favor say that the GOP taking control of the House may be one of the only bright spots for Republicans in the midterms and that this is not a situation in which House Republicans missed out on a wave seen in the Senate and other statewide races. 

“Really, the top of the ticket in a lot of these states and a lot of the races really hurt us,” said Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), who ran unopposed this year and is supportive of Emmer and McCarthy. Those suggesting McCarthy could be in trouble comes down to “saber rattling,” he said. 

Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), chair of the moderate Republican Governance Group, agreed that leaders helped deliver gains in places like New York and that poor top-of-ticket candidates in some states dragged down candidates who should have won. 

Emmer officially launched a bid for House majority whip, the No. 3 position, on Wednesday. He faces two competitors for the post: Chief Deputy Whip Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) and Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), chair of the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the House. 

Emmer, who was careful to not make predictions about the final House breakdown ahead of the midterms, brushed off the prospect of the majority margin affecting his level of support. 

“I don’t know how” the slimmer majority would affect his whip bid, Emmer told reporters Wednesday. “We delivered. This is exactly what we thought we were going to do. We’re going to deliver a new Republican majority.” 

Banks and Ferguson, meanwhile, could benefit from any hesitance about Emmer with the conference elections happening quickly on Tuesday. 

Banks is running on his conservative credentials that he built up in the Republican Study Committee and his relationships with influential outside conservative groups. In a letter to members formally announcing his candidacy for whip on Wednesday, Banks pledged to be a “bridge between members and leadership and committee chairs.” He noted that he would be the only veteran in leadership. 

Concerned Women for America, a right-wing Christian group, endorsed Banks’s whip bid on Monday, and Donald Trump Jr. has also expressed support for Banks while publicly criticizing Emmer. 

But strengthening and maintaining a cozy relationship with Trump World may be off-putting to some members. The former president is taking heat for boosting candidates who either lost or were perceived to drag down House candidates. 

“Letting this guy be at the helm of the ship will screw you over, it’ll screw your conference over, it’ll screw your prospects for being able to lead the party like you want to. And I hope that’s what they’re realizing,” a senior House GOP aide said.

Marjorie Taylor Greene glides to reelection

Posted on (Updated by Mike Lillis

GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is projected to easily win reelection on Tuesday, fending off a challenge from Democrat Marcus Flowers, an Army veteran, to secure a second term in Georgia’s deep-red 14th Congressional District.

The Associated Press called the race at 8:55 p.m.

In just two years on Capitol Hill, Greene has solidified her place as one of Congress’s most prominent — and controversial — conservative voices, building a national right-wing following for her opposition to COVID-19 restrictions, her endorsement of Christian nationalism and her avid support for former President Trump, to include the promotion of his false claims that the 2020 election was “stolen.”

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who was projected to win a second term in the House, has become one of the loudest, most controversial conservative voices on Capitol Hill. (Greg Nash)

Greene’s provocations came with a political price: Just a month after she arrived in Washington, the House voted to strip her of her committee assignments in response to revelations that she had previously promoted a long series of conspiracy theories, including QAnon, as well as violence against Democrats, including the idea of assassinating Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). 

All the attention has made Greene one of the most polarizing figures on Capitol Hill. And Tuesday’s race took on outsized national dimensions as donors from around the country showered money on both candidates, making it the single most expensive House race of the 2022 cycle, according to OpenSecrets.

Flowers benefited most from all the attention, hauling in more than $15 million — an enormous number that reflected the appetite among national Democrats to defeat the figure who, perhaps more than any other congressional Republican, has come to exemplify the GOP’s populist turn under Trump.

In the end, it didn’t matter. The conservative district, where 68 percent of voters chose Trump in 2020, sided with Greene.

Greene has had a contentious relationship with her own Republican leadership, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). (Greg Nash)

Back in Congress, Greene will be closely watched next year. While a darling of the right, she has also been an outspoken critic of her own Republican leadership, particularly House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), who is in line for the Speakership if the House changes hands. 

McCarthy has taken long steps this year to get into Greene’s good graces. But the tensions linger, and McCarthy will have to walk a delicate line if Greene and other far-right lawmakers press GOP leaders to advance a host of conservative demands, including the impeachment of President Biden and members of his Cabinet.