Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Michigan primary vote still sinking in

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.

Philip Bump/Washington Post:

Michigan’s choose-your-own-lesson presidential primary

Trump and Biden won their respective contests, but the lessons each should take aren’t entirely clear

The focus on Biden is heavily a function of this public, state-specific effort to send him a message. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, there’s an ongoing protest vote, mostly manifested in support for former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley’s technically existent challenge to Trump’s bid for the nomination.

In Michigan, that meant that Trump underperformed Biden in nearly every county….

[But there’s more conflicting data]

What’s the lesson? Take your pick. You have six charts to pick from.

The most important lesson, certainly, is the most boring one, the one for which no chart is needed: Biden and Trump both won easily and will almost certainly be the two major-party candidates on the ballot in November.

Does Haley's declining primary vote mean Trump is really OK with the GOP base? Let's look at 1992 Buchanan got 37% in NH against the incumbent Bush As his vote in later primaries generally ranged b/t 10-30% he drew less attention Final pop vote was Bush 73 Buchanan 23 ...

— Bill Scher (@billscher) February 28, 2024

...But to my eye a Haley drawing ≈20 is still a significant undercurrent of discontent with the presumptive nominee, even if it's less than what she got in NH/SC.

— Bill Scher (@billscher) February 28, 2024

Danielle Lee Tompson/”Failure to Communicate” on Substack:

CPAC as Simulacra

Spending a few days in the flagship event of the American Conservative Union told me a lot about the exhausted discourse in our country

CPAC is a simulacra, that is to say a copy of a copy of itself, reflecting not only a larger trend in Republican politics but American politics generally.

This year I sojourned to the Gaylord Resort in Maryland’s National Harbor not so much for the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) that has been going on since Reagan times, but some other work and interviews related to my book. Perhaps I also went because, at this point in my life as a scholar of conservative media, it is my habit.

Something this year about CPAC felt hollow, a brightly branded wrapper that did not hold much by way of substance. There were few big American political names beyond Trump. Guests looked in vain for the usual hotel suite parties paid for by eager lobbying groups. I did not smell the sweaty pheromones of drunk college Republicans in their khaki pants or grandma’s pearls about to lose their virginities— they barely showed up. Aside from some guy getting dragged away by security dressed in a white KKK robe and a few errant neo-Nazi Groypers in sunglasses and trench coats, I did not even see the usual robust number of sketchy far-right figures who typically troll the conference. They just seemed like a handful of lame young men who hadn’t grown up.

New polling showing that when Democrats explain how Republicans killed the toughest border bill in decades, Republicans' 15 point advantage on the border DISAPPEARS. Time to go on the offense, team.https://t.co/mw7YjuoTzQ

— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) February 29, 2024

Florida Politics:

Ron DeSantis says Citizens Insurance is ‘not solvent’

Gov. Ron DeSantis is telling the nation that people in his state shouldn’t rely on the state-run insurer of last resort, raising new questions about Citizens Property Insurance ahead of what is expected to be an active hurricane season.

“It is not solvent and we can’t have millions of people on that because if a storm hits, it’s going to cause problems for the state,” the second-term Republican Governor said on CNBC’s “Last Call.”

The Governor’s comments are particularly interesting as they were in the middle of a rumination about private insurers bringing new capital into the state, in which he claimed that “about 30% of those policies from Citizens” taken out by “new private insurance (companies) will actually be able to offer lower rates to those people.” That suggests roughly 70% of people are paying more since the take out of Citizens’ policies.

77-13: Senate approves short-term funding for the federal government in two stages through March 8 and March 22 to avert Friday's midnight shutdown deadline. 60 votes were needed. House passed the CR earlier today 320-99 and it now heads to President Biden to be signed into law. https://t.co/G4trH7eyts pic.twitter.com/RqS8K3qfkn

— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) March 1, 2024

Bolts magazine:

Red State AGs Keep Trying to Kill Ballot Measures by a Thousand Cuts

Organizers say state officials have stretched their powers by stonewalling proposed ballot measures on abortion, voting rights, and government transparency.

When a coalition of voting rights activists in Ohio set out last December to introduce a new ballot initiative to expand voting access, they hardly anticipated that the thing to stop them would be a matter of word choice.

But that’s what Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost took issue with when he reviewed the proposal’s summary language and title, then called “Secure and Fair Elections.” Among other issues, Yost said the title “does not fairly or truthfully summarize or describe the actual content of the proposed amendment.”

So the group tried again, this time naming their measure “The Ohio Voters Bill of Rights.” Again, Yost rejected them, for the same issue, with the same explanation. After that, activists sued to try and certify their proposal—the first step on the long road toward putting the measure in front of voters on the ballot.

“AG Yost doesn’t have the authority to comment on our proposed title, let alone the authority to reject our petition altogether based on the title alone,” the group said in a statement announcing their plans to mount a legal challenge. “The latest rejection of our proposed ballot summary from AG Yost’s office is nothing but a shameful abuse of power to stymie the right of Ohio citizens to propose amendments to the Ohio Constitution.”

These Ohio advocates aren’t alone in their struggle to actually use the levers of direct democracy. Already in 2024, several citizen-led attempts to put issues directly to voters are hitting bureaucratic roadblocks early on in the process at the hands of state officials.

Now that we are done with the Hunter impeachment sham, I want to remind everyone of the real White House family scandal. Why did Jared Kushner receive $2 billion from Saudi Arabia months after leaving his post overseeing Middle East policy? pic.twitter.com/U110bks3cJ

— Congressman Robert Garcia (@RepRobertGarcia) February 29, 2024

David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:

Biden and Netanyahu Both Hope the Other Is Out of Power Soon

The dysfunctional relationship between the two leaders has gotten so bad they’re both imagining a near future where they can work with the other’s successor

This week, U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demonstrated yet again why theirs is the foreign policy world’s worst marriage.

They don’t share the same goals. They don’t trust each other. And they just can’t seem to communicate.’

It is no wonder that both—as well as those close to each of them—spend much of their time hoping for a divorce and a chance at happiness with a new partner. The reality, however, is that those hopes are not likely to come to fruition and we may be enduring the consequences of this dysfunctional relationship for quite some time to come

On the other hand, a major political crisis is coming to a head in Israel as the Defense Minister (Gallant) proposes drafting yeshiva students for military service (they currently are exempt). The ultraorthodox parties keeping Netanyahu in power would be forced to resign on principle, which would in turn bring down the government. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile in Haaretz:

Biden Has a Vision for Israel's Future. Netanyahu Doesn't

It is unprecedented that a superpower crafts and offers a long-term grand strategy for a significantly smaller, asymmetrical ally, as U.S. President Joe Biden is doing with his plan for a new Middle East. The least Israel can do is give the plan the attention it deserves

For the first time in its 76-year history, Israel has the opportunity to substantially improve its strategic situation and environs – and astonishingly, it is saying no.

The scale and magnitude of the strategic benefits the so-called Biden plan potentially provide to Israel cannot be exaggerated. It is, therefore, confounding to see the rude indifference, arrogant dismissal and open derision with which Israel has responded to the proposed U.S. outline for a reconfigured Middle East. The plan may be incomplete or imperfect at this point, but it is there for the taking.

Trump talked a lot about bring manufacturing back to America. But under Biden, manufacturing investment has grown faster than any time in recent history. And it's not even close. During Trump's presidency, manufacturing spending grew by 5%. Under Biden it has grown by 279%. pic.twitter.com/qHSKmZcLCp

— Michael Thomas (@curious_founder) February 29, 2024

Cliff Schecter on reproductive freedom:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: IVF, courts, and fundraising

Lourdes A. Rivera/HuffPost:

What the Alabama Supreme Court’s Decision Says About Our Failing Democracy

The high court ruling that the “wrongful death of a minor” law could be applied to an embryo created through in vitro fertilization is another extremist strategy in the criminalization of pregnant people.  
For those of us following the Alabama Supreme Court closely, this is, while deeply disturbing, not surprising. Ten years ago, this court ruled that the definition of a “child” included fetuses at any point in gestation in the context of child abuse laws, meaning a pregnant person could abuse their “child” even as an embryo, ushering in the unprecedented mass criminalization of pregnant people in the state: more than 600 such cases from 2006 through 2022, outpacing every state in the nation in criminalizing pregnant people.

Lots to say about the Michigan primary, but the pundits aren’t done rewriting their preferred narrative. Check in tomorrow, but meanwhile:

Michigan voter on Trump: I think he is pretty much an asshole pic.twitter.com/Ub6lsbbtzO

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 28, 2024

Marilou Johanek/Ohio Capital Journal:

National and Ohio Republicans desperately pretending they haven’t been attacking IVF

All Ohio Republican U.S. Senate candidates opposed November amendment passed by 57% of Ohio voters that guaranteed rights to fertility treatment

Don’t believe a word. The same extremists lining up to support a federal abortion ban, that would override hard-earned reproductive freedoms in states like Ohio, are now tripping all over themselves to profess their support for IVF and personal choice. Yeah right. The truth is freedom-killing MAGA Republicans were caught off guard after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos (created and stored for in vitro fertilization) are children under state law.

Public reaction to the decision — that repeatedly invoked scripture as its legal foundation for effectively stopping in vitro fertilization treatments across Alabama — was highly negative. Of course it was. Millions of Americans struggle with infertility issues. Many have turned to IVF for hope. So the patriarchal zealots on a mission from God to force their religious beliefs down our throats — to control what you read, say, do, who you marry, when and how you have kids — saw the polls on IVF and rushed to pretend they would absolutely protect access to it.

Don’t believe a word. The extreme agenda of Christian nationalists to inject government into our private lives and subjugate women as vessels of the state was bluntly exposed in the Alabama IVF case. 

Watch him get 80 percent in the Michigan primary, and have the same journalists call it a setback, reflecting deep divisions among Democrats. https://t.co/HFNKnx6ISW

— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) February 26, 2024

Brian Beutler/”Off Message” on Substack:

IVF And The Faithlessness Of The GOP

Republicans desperately trying to cover their tracks are running the same play as the Supreme Court justices who lied about settled law to get confirmed so they could overturn Roe v. Wade.

In reality, Republicans do not care about truth in advertising, per se.

To the contrary, they have embraced near-total faithlessness. Long gone are the days when they ran and lost on a plan to privatize Medicare—now they promise not to touch entitlements on the campaign trail, hoping to win enough power to simply break the promise. When their policies are unpopular or disruptive, they don’t even bother with Obama-style salesmanship, where policy and rhetoric at least point in the same direction. They now simply pursue a range of toxically unpopular policies, while telling voters they do not.

Former Conservative Prime Minister of Australia. https://t.co/VfbWuPFhrP

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) February 27, 2024

Associated Press:

Trump is winning big with his base, but there’s no sign that he’s broadening support

AP VoteCast shows that Trump, the former president, has galvanized the core of the GOP electorate in IowaNew Hampshire and South Carolina. His voters so far are overwhelmingly white, mostly older than 50 and generally without a college degree. This, however, is very different than the electorate he could face in November, when he’d have to appeal to a far more diverse group and possibly win over supporters of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her pull has been limited in the GOP primaries – but her candidacy may foreshadow problems for Trump.

AP VoteCast reveals that a large portion of Trump’s opposition within the Republican primaries is comprised of voters who abandoned him before this year.

Mike Allen/Axios:

Trump's demographic problem

Those who went to the polls reflected Trump's strengths:

  • This was the oldest South Carolina GOP electorate this century. (Chuck Todd)
  • 60% of primary voters were white evangelical or born-again Christians. (CNN)

Reality check: That group isn't remotely big enough to win a presidential election. He would need to attract voters who are more diverse, more educated and believe his first loss was legit. South Carolina exit polls show he didn't do that.

  • That's why Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the Senate's only Black Republican, remains on Trump's short list for V.P.
  • A bigger problem yet: Polls show these skeptics would be even less likely to swing his way if he's convicted of a crime — a real possibility among his four ongoing cases, insiders tell us.

NEW: Nancy Mace is circulating a non-binding resolution to express support for IVF & condemn judicial rulings or legislation that restrict access to fertility treatments, per draft sent to me & @FoxReports. But it’s symbolic — doesn’t actually enshrine IVF protections into law.

— Melanie Zanona (@MZanona) February 27, 2024

Marc Caputo/The Bulwark:

‘The numbers right now aren’t good.’

Why Trump is fundraising more than ever.

Trump’s legal issues have impacted his money picture in multiple ways: (1) They made some big donors nervous about giving to him, depriving him of money he otherwise would have had sooner. (2) They led some big donors to give to Haley instead, thereby prolonging her campaign. (3) They armed Trump critics with the argument that he wants the RNC to pay his legal bills. (4) The big financial judgments against him have made cash more scarce for Trump—which in turn make it harder to fill gaps by self-funding (which Trump has always been loath to do and hasn’t done this cycle).

“He’s much more engaged than I’ve ever seen him at this, and that’s because he has to be,” said one Republican familiar with the campaign’s finances. “The numbers right now aren’t good, but we should raise a billion dollars or $900 million at this pace now. We’ll have enough.”

Molly Jong-Fast/Vanity Fair:

Mike Johnson Is in Way Over His Head

Who’d have guessed a Trumpy backbencher would bungle the Speaker’s job?
Well, now you’ll even find Republicans pointing out that Johnson wasn’t the first draft pick. “We went through five choices and Mike Johnson’s the fifth choice,” Representative Patrick McHenry told CBS News last week. McHenry, who served as Speaker pro tempore last year after Kevin McCarthy, his ally, was ousted, may feel like he can finally speak freely since he’s not running for reelection. He’s part of a wave of House GOP retirements that includes Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Mike Gallagher, and Ken Buck. (Notably, Gallagher and Buck both voted against the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.) In the CBS interview, McHenry continued to muse about Johnson: “He has not been around these leadership decisions. He’s had a really tough process. We’ve thrown him into the deepest end of the pool with the heaviest weights around him and [we’re] trying to teach him how to learn to swim. It’s been a rough couple of months.” Sounds like McHenry has a little Speaker’s remorse! Or, as Punchbowl put it bluntly on Monday: “Johnson, quite frankly, has been hesitant to lead on any issue at all.”

This is the moment when the effort to boot Fani Willis off the Trump RICO case died. pic.twitter.com/f2TYDc6BDN

— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) February 27, 2024

That's a wrap from Fulton County Superior Court on Terrance Bradley's testimony. That bombshell turned out to be a big 'ole dud. pic.twitter.com/RoV3ddnlhz

— Anthony Michael Kreis (@AnthonyMKreis) February 27, 2024

Cliff Schecter looks at Kevin McCarthy and Matt Gaetz:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Good people in Alabama suffer more than anyone over what Republicans do

Glamour:

‘These Embryos Are Five Years Worth of Money, Sadness, and Hope. I Just Want to Be a Mom.’

The Alabama Supreme Court ruled last week that frozen embryos are legally considered children, which effectively banned IVF treatment in the state. Here’s how the decision impacts one couple.
Crain, a journalist and artist who lives in Birmingham, has spent the past several years reporting on the loss of women’s rights to their own bodies in Alabama while dealing with the mental and physical toll of her own private fertility journey. She and her husband had been preparing to transfer their frozen embryos from their latest egg retrieval when she heard the news about the Supreme Court’s decision.

“It's insane,” she says. “While I don't view my embryos as scared children sitting in the freezer calling for their mommy, I do feel that they are mine and no one else's. And right now I can't, can't touch them physically, mentally, spiritually, if I wanted to. I legally can't.”

Republicans freaking out on IVF issue as Dems step up messaginghttps://t.co/NYtBtu9kYP

— Tim McBride (@mcbridetd) February 25, 2024

Eric Garcia/Independent:

CPAC celebrates the Alabama IVF ruling – while Trump and Republicans distance themselves

Republican candidates and the GOP’s presumptive presidential candidate have come out opposing restrictions to IVF. But some conservatives at CPAC celebrated the Alabama ruling

Republicans have begun to sense that the ruling is unpopular. Last year, the Pew Research Center found that 42 per cent of Americans have either used fertility treatments or knew someone who has, particularly as women continue to have children older. On Friday, Mr Tuberville posted on X/Twitter that he had spoken with Alabama’s speaker of the house, saying that the legislature will take up a bill to protect IVF.

“We want everyone to have the opportunity to have kids,” he said. “IVF will remain legal and available in Alabama.”

Similarly, National Review reported that the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent a memo to Republican candidates for Senate instructing them to “clearly state your support for IVF and fertility-related services as blessings for those seeking to have children.”

Two of the candidates for Senate in swing states who appeared at CPAC – David McCormick in Pennsylvania and Kari Lake in Arizona – both put out statements saying they opposed restrictions to IVF.

Republican leaders have instructed their politicians to publicly support IVF even if they have previously sponsored legislation that would ban IVF. The GOP is held together by its willingness to lie in unison.

— Mark Jacob (@MarkJacob16) February 24, 2024

John Archibald/Al.com:

Alabama Supreme Court is a theocracy

Alabama Supreme Court chief justice Tom Parker was downright gleeful.

He quoted Genesis in his sermon — I’m sorry, his concurring opinion — in the Alabama ruling that turned in vitro fertilization on its head by defining frozen embryos as children.

He quoted 17th century Dutch theologian Petrus Van Mastricht. Ya know, good ole Van Mastricht. He quoted a 16th century Bible – because older is closer to God, maybe – and quoted the Sixth Commandment, thou shalt not kill.

He quoted Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin and one of Roy Moore’s old pals at the Foundation for Moral Law in Montgomery. He wrote of the “wrath of God.”

The people of Alabama, he said, decided all this was public policy.

“It is as if the People of Alabama took what was spoken of the prophet Jeremiah and applied it to every unborn person in this state: ‘Before I formed you in the womb I knew you, Before you were born I sanctified you.’”

Did I say it wasn’t a sermon? It was definitely a sermon.

This interview of a hard-core Trump voter in South Carolina by @Boris_Sanchez @cnn is absolutely fascinating 👉 https://t.co/KoTfxyIlKG Despite his loyalty to Trump, he validates my point @nytopinion about the devastating effect of a conviction 👇https://t.co/htqQX9wOsA

— Norm Eisen (norm.eisen on Threads) (@NormEisen) February 25, 2024

Context for the above CNN video (the indictment remarks are at 00:41, listen to his reaction about conviction):

Among Haley supporters via @CNN exit polls: If Trump wins nomination: 21% satisfied 78% dissatisfied If Trump is convicted: 15% still fit for presidency 82% unfit for presidency

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 25, 2024

There’s too much out there on Biden’s weaknesses, not enough on Trump’s. So, here’s two more on Trump, starting with Dan Pfeiffer/”Message Box” on Substack:

Yet Another Underwhelming Trump Primary Win

Trump is on the glide path to the nomination, but he isn't improving his performance with swing voters

However, the real story is that Trump underperformed expectations and failed to expand his coalition. Once again, despite another dominant primary victory, the results highlighted Trump's vulnerabilities and offered a roadmap for defeating him in November.

Based on the exit polls, Trump’s campaign team should be popping some Xanax with the champagne over his win in South Carolina.

You cannot win the White House with the coalition that Trump is getting in these primaries. He must expand his coalition, persuade people who aren’t already on board, and get beyond the Big Lie-believing MAGA base. Through three primary contests, Trump has gained no ground.

Republican primary voters who vote for a candidate other than Trump are significantly less likely to return to him in the general. This is where resources should be spent. Everything else is a distraction. GOP defections will be the single largest factor in the November outcome

— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) February 25, 2024

Many here don’t believe it and don’t trust GOP voters. But they often have more sense than their candidates, at least if they aren’t white evangelical voters in South Carolina:

CNN exit polls in South Carolina primary: White evangelical Christians: 75% Trump 24% Haley Everyone else: 51% Haley 49% Trump

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 25, 2024

Walter Shapiro/The New Republic:

How Nikki Haley Can Beat Trump

She won’t win the Republican nomination, but by staying in the race she’s lowering Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.

In a Tuesday speech giving her full-throated justification for staying in the race beyond her home state’s primary, Haley said, “Like most Americans, I have a handful of serious concerns about the former president. But I have countless serious concerns about the current president.” That line alone virtually guarantees that Haley will not magically appear as a surprise guest at the August Democratic convention.

Although the plucky Haley portrays herself as a loyal Republican, her limited—but scorching—attacks on Trump are worth examining in detail. She is appealing to a dwindling band of Reagan Republicans, suburban moderates and up-for-grabs independents. There are probably not enough of these voters to hand Haley a primary victory, but these are constituencies that the Joe Biden campaign will also target in November. Haley, in effect, is offering a crash course in how to woo swing voters who do not automatically assume that Trump is a racist and fascist out to trample the Constitution.  

Biden is building an anti-Trump coalition, not a pro-Biden one. every message that keeps folks in that coalition is a good one, every entity that peels off voters (third party) is a bad one (see Sarah Longwell above).

David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:

A Vote for Trump Is a Vote for Putin—and a World in Danger

Global peace, Europe’s future, and our security are on the ballot in November. The final word on Ukraine’s future, NATO’s future, and Putin’s future will come from American voters.

It is time to remove from our analytical lexicon the terms that are commonly used to minimize the dangers associated with the Trump-MAGA-Putin alliance. After more than eight years of compiling evidence that demonstrates Russia’s efforts to co-opt the American right is perhaps the most successful intelligence operation of our time, we have to reject the transparent vocabulary of keyboard warriors that still cry “hoax” every time new and irrefutable evidence of GOP-Russia ties is presented.

In the past two weeks alone, there has been the evidence that the core of the GOP sham impeachment effort against President Biden turned on the testimony of a man with ties to Russian intelligence; Trump’s invitation to Putin to do “whatever the hell he wants” with Europe; the MAGA right’s decision to postpone further even considering aid to UkraineTucker Carlson’s jaunt to Moscow to amplify the Kremlin’s lies about itself; the refusal of Trump to condemn the murder of Alexei Navalny in Russian prison; and the arrest of yet another American for no good reason in Russia.

Republicans pretending they want to protect IVF but getting owned by their own voting records. pic.twitter.com/TikXNgtixb

— Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) February 24, 2024

Thomas Zimmer/”Democracy Americana” on Substack:

“Project 2025” Promises Revenge, Oppression, and Autocratic Rule

The Right’s plans for a return to power are driven by a radicalizing siege mentality and a desperate desire to restore dominance

One of the more frustrating aspects of studying and talking about American politics is that if you simply trace the radicalization of the Right and the Republican Party, there is a good chance a mainstream audience will dismiss you as a leftwing conspiracy theorist or an unhinged “activist.” Donald Trump’s outrageousness notwithstanding, it is difficult to convey to people who don’t pay much attention to politics how much the power centers of conservative politics have been taken over by anti-democratic extremism. One way to deal with this problem is to get people to actually read and listen to what emanates from the Right. If you don’t believe and can’t trust my (lefty / liberal) assessment, maybe you can believe them? In that spirit, I think it’s worth spending time diving deep into Kevin Roberts’ “Promise to America” – with lots of extensive quotes, as it is important to get a sense of what these people sound like when they are not being sanitized and normalized by mainstream media coverage. This will serve as Part I of my dissection of “Project 2025,” focusing on the worldview and ideas that are guiding the plans on the Right; there will also be a Part II in which I will look more closely at what those plans entail, and the strategies for how to realize them and turn America into the kind of society the reactionary Right desires.

ProPublica:

New Details Suggest Senior Trump Aides Knew Jan. 6 Rally Could Get Chaotic

Text messages and interviews show that Stop the Steal leaders fooled the Capitol police and welcomed racists to increase their crowd sizes, while White House officials worked to both contain and appease them.

On Dec. 19, President Donald Trump blasted out a tweet to his 88 million followers, inviting supporters to Washington for a “wild” protest.

Earlier that week, one of his senior advisers had released a 36-page report alleging significant evidence of election fraud that could reverse Joe Biden’s victory. “A great report,” Trump wrote. “Statistically impossible to have lost the 2020 Election. Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!”

The tweet worked like a starter’s pistol, with two pro-Trump factions competing to take control of the “big protest.”

Sheesh. This “analysis” lacks context that SC has an open primary. It is clear that a sizable number of Dems showed up just to cast an early anti-Trump vote. It says nothing about the GOP base. Need to wait until we get to closed primaries before drawing a conclusion like this. https://t.co/qw45nNbZBd

— Patrick Murray (@PollsterPatrick) February 25, 2024

From Cliff Schecter on John Oliver’s Clarence Thomas offer:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: How the ‘need for chaos’ keeps Trump in the running

Brian Beutler/”Off Message” on Substack:

Will Democrats Really Shrug Off The GOP's Latest, Biggest Betrayal?

Republicans teamed up with Russian intelligence to smear Joe Biden; they inflicted serious political damage on him over YEARS; Democrats can't let bygones be bygones

To recap quickly: Last week, David Weiss, the Trump-appointed prosecutor who has investigated, charged, and jerked around Hunter Biden, indicted Alexander Smirnov, the one witness who claimed to have evidence that the younger Biden really was trotting the globe soliciting bribes on behalf of his father. Turns out, Smirnov made it all up!

That development, taken in isolation and at face value, was a huge, embarrassing blow to Weiss and to congressional Republicans, who have plastered Smirnov’s allegations all over the media and used them to justify a decision they’d already made, at Donald Trump’s behest, to impeach Joe Biden.

But that wasn’t the end of it. DOJ then took the surprising step of trying to keep Smirnov confined before trial, and when a judge got in the way, prosecutors revealed that Smirnov’s lies stemmed from his work as a Russian intelligence agent. It’s not just that Republicans (in DOJ and on Capitol Hill) tried to frame Biden based on lies. It’s that the lies were part of a familiar Russian operation, encouraged and abetted by Trump himself for nearly a decade now, to slime his opponents ahead of elections.

Today it’s the 2024 election, but Smirnov first seeded his lies ahead of the 2020 election, when DOJ was controlled by Trump, and his corrupt attorney general Bill Barr.

Somehow Smirnov’s Russian intelligence contacts eluded all of these Republicans for four years. Unless of course they didn’t.

Smirnov, via a California judge, is back in custody. This, after a Nevada judge temporarily freed him.

A bit of advice:

Please do not report that the Republicans support IVF without noting their actual records, or asking them if that means they do not think embryos are people.

— Christina Reynolds (@creynoldsnc) February 23, 2024

Like clockwork, leading GOP candidates in #AZSEN, #OHSEN, #PASEN, and #MTSEN all sticking to the NRSC’s message and releasing statements supporting IVF treatments pic.twitter.com/Z1jqTs9x8F

— Kirk A. Bado (@kirk_bado) February 23, 2024

Running for election makes you do interesting things. But once you win …?

Dan Froomkin/Press Watch:

The Hunter Biden story has done a total 180 but the MSM is in denial

The real story is that the ludicrous Republican impeachment investigation has now been exposed as a Russian intelligence op. This, even as Republicans do Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bidding by blocking support for Ukraine and only a few short years after Trump aides welcomed Russian moves to help the Trump campaign in 2016.

But the political reporters at our most esteemed newsrooms who went to great lengths to portray the Biden impeachment investigation as a serious inquiry seem unable to change gears.

I’m not surprised. It  would require them to admit they were wrong. They don’t do that.

FSB is the proud successor to the KGB, which ran similar operations in West Germany in the Cold War. https://t.co/2tRPy35nUO

— Cas Mudde (@CasMudde) February 23, 2024

POLITICO:

Biden impeachment effort on the brink of collapse

A wide swath of House Republicans are acknowledging they likely won’t have the votes, especially given their struggle to recommend booting Alejandro Mayorkas.

The House GOP’s push to impeach Joe Biden appears close to stalling out for good.

First, the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas scraped through on the narrowest of margins — and took two tries, raising serious doubts about Republicans’ appetite for an even bigger impeachment fight. Then, a high-profile informant making bribery allegations against the Biden family was not only indicted, but has now linked some of his information to Russian intelligence.

See also AxiosHouse Republicans see Biden impeachment slipping out of reach

Some musings about what SCOTUS could be up to when it comes to Donald Trump’s presidential immunity claim:

4. Possibility 2 is that the Court has voted to go all the way to the merits—to issue a brief ruling by the full Court that *affirms* the D.C. Circuit's rejection of former President Trump's immunity. Such a disposition would also take a little time to craft/get everyone behind.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 23, 2024

7. In other words, although there are several explanations for why it's taking the Court this long, the most likely ones are all *bad* for Trump. None of this is a guarantee, of course; one of the *problems* with the shadow docket is how much we're left to guess. But that's mine.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 23, 2024

Derek Thompson/The Atlantic:

The Americans Who Need Chaos

They’re embracing nihilism and upending politics.

The researchers came up with a term to describe the motivation behind these all-purpose conspiracy mongers. They called it the “need for chaos,” which they defined as “a mindset to gain status” by destroying the established order. In their study, nearly a third of respondents demonstrated a need for chaos, Petersen said. And for about 5 percent of voters, old-fashioned party allegiances to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party melted away and were replaced by a desire to see the entire political elite destroyed—even without a plan to build something better in the ashes.

“These [need-for-chaos] individuals are not idealists seeking to tear down the established order so that they can build a better society for everyone,” the authors wrote in their conclusion. “Rather, they indiscriminately share hostile political rumors as a way to unleash chaos and mobilize individuals against the established order that fails to accord them the respect that they feel they personally deserve.” To sum up their worldview, Petersen quoted a famous line from the film The Dark Knight: “Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

Alabama IVF ruling puts spotlight on state plans for tax breaks and child support for fetuses https://t.co/K52CV0FwVF

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 24, 2024

Conor Sen/Bloomberg:

Boy, This Economy Is Hard to Read. Mea Culpa.

I’m now sorry that I described recent signs of recovery as akin to a “dead cat bounce” that would eventually be swamped by high interest rates.

The catalyst is the growing confidence among consumers and businesses alike, ironically driven by the slowdown in inflation the Fed has been working to engineer. Monetary policy remains tight — look no further than the struggles in the automobile and commercial property sectors or affordability challenges for homebuyers — but, for now, there are too many industries showing signs of resilience or acceleration to believe that the central bank’s stance will cause the labor market or economy to unravel.

No Labels' spoiler bid has suddenly entered full meltdown mode. No serious candidates are interested. The group's public justifications are increasingly ludicrous. Time to pull the plug. We have lots of new reporting and info in this piece. 1/ Link:https://t.co/huQpANZIlH

— Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) February 23, 2024

Daniel Nichanian/Bolts magazine:

Judges Play Musical Chairs on Arkansas’ Highest Court

Four members of the state supreme court are trying to jump to different seats on the bench, a situation that could empower the conservative governor by granting her more appointments.

The only two candidates not already on the court face tough odds, crushed by their opponents’ name recognition and fundraising. Each told Bolts that they’re concerned about the prospect of the governor shaping the court’s membership when justices are supposed to be chosen by voters.

Many states select justices via elections, but then stretch the spirit of that approach. Justices in other states routinely resign before their term is up, enabling governors to name a replacement; in Minnesota, for instance, all current justices owe their seat to an appointment despite the state’s election system. As Bolts has reported, a loophole in Georgia law has even allowed state justices and other officials to maneuver to outright cancel some judicial elections.

In Arkansas, the reasons for this situation are very different across the two elections. One of the two open supreme court races this year is to replace Chief Justice John Dan Kemp, who is retiring rather than seek a new term. Three of the court’s associate justices—Karen Baker, Barbara Webb, and Rhonda Wood—are running for the open chief justice position, which is akin to seeking a promotion, since the chief justice has broad responsibilities over supervising the state’s judicial system.

Ryan Burge/”Graphs About Religion” on Substack:

Has Christian Nationalism Intensified or Faded?

Comparing Survey Data from 2007 and 2021

It's all happened so fast that it's hard to get our arms around a pretty basic question in the discussion about Christian Nationalism - are those sentiments increasing or decreasing in the general public? Well, now I can answer that with a great deal of specificity.

If one is looking for the empirical foundations of the Christian Nationalism debate, it’s in a series of statements that were posed to respondents in the Baylor Religion Survey back in 2007 - Wave II. They are as follows:

  1. The federal government should advocate Christian values
  2. The federal government should allow prayer in public schools
  3. The federal government should allow the display of religious symbols in public spaces
  4. The federal government should declare the United States a Christian nation
  5. The federal government should enforce strict separation of church and state
  6. The success of the United States is part of God’s plan.

Response options ranged from strongly disagree to strongly agree. The middle option is undecided. I know that there's a lively debate about defining Christian Nationalism and whether these questions are tapping that concept accurately. I am going to sidestep that discussion entirely here. The authors I mentioned above are much more well-versed in those debates than I am. My focus here is narrow - I just want to see how responses to those questions have changed over time….

I think it's fair to say that the results point to the fact that Christian Nationalism is fading in the general population. That's evident in a number of these statements. For instance, in 2007, 55% of folks said that the government should advocate Christian values. In 2021, that share had dropped to just 38%. That's substantial.

My argument would be that extremism makes things less popular with the general public. Same with scandals, same with overreaching.

One presidential candidate makes the killing of Alexey @Navalny about himself, the other goes and meets with the grieving family and promises support for their cause. But yes, they're basically the same. https://t.co/pv37l9GrKO

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) February 22, 2024

Cliff Schecter on Lindsey Graham:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The issues the GOP cannot deal with raise their heads yet again

POLITICO Playbook:

What the GOP would prefer not to discuss

Already, Republicans are being forced to answer for a policy that is not only out of step with public opinion on IVF but has very personal and potentially devastating consequences for the one in six Americans who struggle with fertility issues. The decision not only risks alienating swing voters but highlights how the consequences of Dobbs continue to crush Republicans up and down the ballot....

The issue is already rearing its head on the campaign trail. Yesterday, 2024 hopeful NIKKI HALEY — who’s been open about her own struggles having children, used artificial insemination to conceive and lectured Republican for being too harsh on women who’ve had abortions — told she NBC she agrees with the Alabama ruling: “Embryos, to me, are babies.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are on the attack. DCCC spokesperson NEBEYATT BETRE told Playbook that voters are “tired of Republicans’ dangerous and blatantly anti-woman agenda,” and vowed that House Dem candidates will “make sure to continue holding Republicans accountable for their disastrous impact on women’s rights.”

“This [Alabama] decision is yet another proofpoint that extremists are hellbent on stripping women of our reproductive freedoms and privacy any way possible,” Betre said.

Easily forgotten is that NY 3 had a winning message on Dobbs for Tom Suozzi (D-he's back) in the recent special election. Now throw in IVF, and East Egg will vote D in November.

Huge majorities not only support fertility treatments, huge majorities of just about every demographic believe fertility treatments should be covered by health insurance. It’s opposed by only 18% of _Republicans_!https://t.co/8GMr9o4A5s). pic.twitter.com/QVVA5b6VbK

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) February 22, 2024

POLITICO:

‘Another hot potato’: Alabama’s IVF ruling risks political, legal backlash

Alabama court ruled frozen embryos are people. The GOP could pay for it in November.

The decision not only threatens GOP efforts to court suburban women and other constituencies uneasy about abortion bans, but also complicates the party’s standing with millions of people who may oppose abortion but support — and in many cases use — in-vitro fertilization and other forms of fertility care. The ruling also demonstrates how the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has made previously theoretical policy and legal battles over the most intimate aspects of American life far more immediate and high-stakes.

Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:

Alert: Trump's Vision for a Christian Nationalist U.S. Revealed

A new report shows the danger of sending Trump back to the White House

It is possible you missed the critically important story that appeared in Politico yesterday morning. According to reporting from Alex Ward and Heidi Pryzbla:

An influential think tank close to Donald Trump is developing plans to infuse Christian nationalist ideas in his administration should the former president return to power, according to documents obtained by POLITICO.

Spearheading the effort is Russell Vought, who served as Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget during his first term and has remained close to him. Vought, who is frequently cited as a potential chief of staff in a second Trump White House, is president of The Center for Renewing America think tank, a leading group in a conservative consortium preparing for a second Trump term.

Vought was an influential advisor to Trump during his presidency and is one of few Trump Administration alums who has remained in the former President’s circle of advisors. His involvement is a giant warning sign that the threat is very real.

Few voters have heard Trump’s NATO comments, and even fewer heard about Trump’s fraud verdict, but I would bet none of them have read a single word of this Politico story. I would also bet my life that the prospect of the Trump Administration implementing extreme Christian Nationalist policies would be more concerning to swing voters than the NATO comments or the fraud.

NEW: We found the guys behind the deepfake Biden robocall and it’s even wilder than you could ever possibly imagine. https://t.co/D6JEbB42za

— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) February 23, 2024

Matthew D Taylor/X via Threadreader:

The sharp-eyed folks at @mmfa noticed that Alabama Supr. Court Chief Justice Tom Parker gave an interview to NAR prophet Johnny Enlow, published the same day as the court's recent decision that embryos count as ppl. Parker references the "Seven Mountains." This is very important.

During a recent interview with a QAnon conspiracy theorist, the Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice indicated that he is a proponent of the “Seven Mountain Mandate,” which calls on Christians to impose fundamentalist values on all aspects of American life https://t.co/fvIaVqET0l

— Media Matters (@mmfa) February 21, 2024

As I showed in Charismatic Revival Fury, ep. 3, the Seven Mountain Mandate is a charismatic (e.g., rooted in modern prophecy & miracles) program intent upon achieving Christian supremacy. It originated in 2000 with NAR prophet/apostle Lance Wallnau.

While Wallnau came up with the concept, the entire New Apostolic Reformation infrastructure (created by C. Peter Wagner) of tight-knit apostles & prophets amplified the Seven Mountains idea & spread it around the nondenominational charismatic world starting around 2007-2008. 3/ 
Johnny Enlow's book The Seven Mountains Prophecy (2008) was the 1st book that explicitly used the Seven Mountains frame.

24 hours later, it’s pretty shocking how much of the mainstream coverage is focused on the implications for impeachment or the details of spycraft. Seems like the real story is apparent Russian disinfo successfully driving the strategy of one of the two main political parties. https://t.co/Ekyw07hBUD

— Todd Zwillich (@toddzwillich) February 22, 2024

POLITICO:

In South Carolina, Haley is running hard on Russia

The former U.N. ambassador is seizing on Alexei Navalny’s death as a persistent line of attack on Donald Trump.

“Trump is siding with a dictator who kills his political opponents,” Haley said. “Trump sided with an evil man over our allies who stood with us on 9/11. Think about what that told them.”

Haley is turning Russia — and Putin, specifically — into a cudgel at a crucial moment in the Republican presidential primary. She’s running far behind Trump. And the former South Carolina governor is poised to get blown out in her home state’s primary on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Oliver Darcy describes the Hunter Biden/Burisma story as "imploding in spectacular fashion". It’s a national security issue. It’s a campaign issue. Republicans don’t want to talk about it. But it’s not going away. 

Oh, and guess what? It’s not a hoax.

WOW. GOP Rep. Ken Buck reveals that Comer and Jim Jordan were warned that the former FBI informant's claims against Biden were not credible but they “went out and talk to the public about how this was credible and how it was damning…”pic.twitter.com/Ujz2glOemd

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) February 22, 2024

jerusalem Demsas/The Atlantic:

Something’s Fishy About the ‘Migrant Crisis’

The federal government’s dysfunction leaves immigrant-friendly cities feeling overwhelmed.

What ensured the quiet assimilation of displaced Ukrainians? Why has the arrival of asylum seekers from Latin America been so different? And why have some cities managed to weather the so-called crisis without any outcry or political backlash? In interviews with mayors, other municipal officials, nonprofit leaders, and immigration lawyers in several states, I pieced together an answer stemming from two major differences in federal policy. First, the Biden administration admitted the Ukrainians under terms that allowed them to work right away. Second, the feds had a plan for where to place these newcomers. It included coordination with local governments, individual sponsors, and civil-society groups. The Biden administration did not leave Ukrainian newcomers vulnerable to the whims of Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who since April 2022 has transported 37,800 migrants to New York City, 31,400 to Chicago, and thousands more to other blue cities—in a successful bid to push the immigration debate rightward and advance the idea that immigrants are a burden on native-born people.

#New #Arizona Senate Poll 🔵 Gallego 36% (+6) 🔴 Lake 30% 🟡 Sinema 21% 🔵 Gallego 46% (+7) 🔴 Lake 39% Emerson #8 - 2/19 - 1,000 RV pic.twitter.com/GelrCrUnCL

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) February 22, 2024

I'm sure Meghan McCain has thoughts.

NO PEACE, BITCH! https://t.co/ekl9QjCF5v

— Meghan McCain (@MeghanMcCain) February 21, 2024

Oh. Well, have a nice day, everyone.

Marcy Wheeler/emptywheel:

DAVID WEISS WAS PLANNING ON USING ALEXANDER SMIRNOV’S CLAIMS AGAINST THE BIDENS UNTIL HE WASN’T ANYMORE

The reason why David Weiss reneged on a plea deal was to chase this bribery claim. The reason why David Weiss charged Hunter Biden with a bunch of felonies rather than resolving this in a diversion and misdemeanors was because he wanted to chase the false claims floated by someone dallying with Russian spies.

And I’d be willing to bet that if Lowell hadn’t asked for discovery that may expose that fact, David Weiss would never have indicted Alexander Smirnov.

Lawrence O’Donnell with a master class on how to pronounce Roosevelt (and says a few other things brilliantly as well):

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Disgraced

We begin today with Josh Marshall—again—of Talking Points Memo, excoriating legacy media for falling for the now-discredited Hunter Biden Laptop story.

For years I’ve continued saying, against what seems like the unified thinking of every reporter, editorialist and credentialed smart person, that the fabled “Hunter Biden Laptop” was obviously the product of a Russian influence operation. The story was absurd on its face. Somehow Hunter Biden decided in a drugged-up fugue that he needed to take his laptop to a computer repair shop. He then forgot about it. The legally blind owner of the repair shop decided to crack it open and look at the files (as one does, of course) and then somehow managed to get the contents to Rudy Giuliani and Steve Bannon.

And yet basically everybody and I mean everybody ended up falling for this. Indeed, the very brief efforts to remain wary of the laptop story in the final days of the 2020 election have evolved into an object case of the dangers of censorship and even liberal media election meddling. It’s a decision — albeit one lasting only a few days — that everyone now agrees “we got wrong.” It was the centerpiece of Elon Musk’s “Twitter Files” nonsense. But Elon Musk going in for it isn’t the point. He’s a clown. All the serious people ended up doing exactly the same. This has always been bullshit. Media organizations at first wouldn’t touch the story because they’d spent the previous four years kicking themselves for allowing themselves to become the promoters of a Russian election interference and disinformation campaign with the purloined DNC emails back in 2016. Since the Hunter Biden laptop stories had all the hallmarks of exactly the same thing somehow happening to pop up in the final days of the 2020, of course they were suspicious. 

[...]

The real issue, as I note above, is the reporters, editorialists and commentators, who vouched for and credited this whole edifice of lies and bullshit…

[...] 

This entire thing has been based on Russian plants and intelligence operations from the start. Every bit of it. It’s been obvious. And yet, well … they’re all dupes. Somehow almost a decade after this whole thing started we’re shocked to see, wow, Weiss’s office was being led around by another cat’s paw of the Russian intelligence services. We’re shocked. But why are we shocked? Every last person among the serious people of the nation’s capital and the sprawling thing called elite received opinion has egg on their face. And it’s not even clear they fully realize it yet.

Aidan Quigley of Roll Call says that Congress will have very little time when it returns next week to pass spending bills in order to avoid a government shutdown.

The Senate returns Monday, only to face impeachment articles the House adopted seeking removal of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas from office. The chamber could quickly dismiss the charges or hold a longer trial as some conservatives are demanding; either way, it’s a constitutional prerogative that must be dealt with first.

The House, meanwhile, isn’t back until Wednesday. That means the latest congressional leaders could theoretically release the text and still adhere to House rules requiring the legislation to be publicly available in advance is Monday.

But even assuming the House can pass the spending package as soon as Wednesday — possibly under suspension of the rules — that leaves little time for the Senate to process it by the end of the day Friday. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and other Senate hard-liners have shown a willingness to delay must-pass bills on several occasions, even if it’s clear they don’t have the votes to block them.

All of these factors have led to speculation that lawmakers may be forced to punt final action for a week with a short-term stopgap measure, lining up the first package of bills currently expiring March 1 with the remaining eight bills that lapse March 8.

Charles Blow of The New York Times says that with the Alabama Supreme Court’s ruling about IVF and frozen embryos, this country careens even closer to a theocracy.

There have been cases before in which embryos were destroyed as a result of negligence, but the Alabama decision significantly ups the ante. It essentially turns cryopreservation tanks into frozen nurseries.

The idea is absurd and unscientific. It is instead tied to a religious crusade to downgrade the personhood of women by conferring personhood on frozen embryos.  

[...]

Control of women’s bodies is the endgame. And some religious conservatives won’t stop until that goal is achieved. For that reason, intervening victories — like the overturning of Roe v. Wade — will never be seen as enough; they will only intensify a blinding sense of righteousness.

[...]

The only thing that seems to be temporarily stopping congressional Republicans from pushing for a national abortion ban — after years of arguing that their goal was merely to allow individual states to make their own laws — is that the issue of reproductive choice is an electoral loser for their party.

Mark Joseph Stern of Slate notes that public defenders are good for the U.S. Supreme Court.

Wednesday’s case, McElrath v. Georgia, involves a tragic set of facts. Damian McElrath spent several years slipping into schizophrenia before, in a fit of delusional paranoia, he stabbed his mother to death, convinced she was poisoning his food. Georgia prosecutors charged him with malice murder, felony murder, and aggravated assault. At trial, McElrath pleaded insanity, presenting a persuasive case that he could not distinguish right from wrong at the time of his crime. The jury partially agreed and returned a split verdict. On the charge of malice murder, the jury found McElrath “not guilty by reason of insanity”—an acquittal, but one that committed him to a mental hospital indefinitely. On the two other charges, the jury found him “guilty but mentally ill”—a conviction that subjected him to prison time, with the possibility of mental health treatment. The trial judge accepted the verdict and sentenced McElrath to life in prison.

After a complicated appeal, the Georgia Supreme Court declared that the jury’s split verdicts on malice murder (acquitted) and felony murder (convicted) were “repugnant” under state law. The court insisted that it was impossible for McElrath to have had different mental states at the same time, so the verdicts could not be reconciled. Thus, the court vacated both verdicts, effectively allowing the state to retry McElrath for malice murder despite the jury’s acquittal. McElrath argued that this retrial would violate double jeopardy, but the court disagreed, reasoning that the two verdicts were “valueless,” indistinguishable from a mistrial due to a hung jury.

Could it really be that easy to evade the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee against double jeopardy? Can a court just proclaim that an acquittal doesn’t count because it doesn’t make sense? No, Jackson reasoned in her opinion on Wednesday: The Georgia Supreme Court got it wrong. To explain why, the justice went back to first principles. The Fifth Amendment states that no person may “be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb.” That means that “a verdict of acquittal is final” and serves as “a bar to a subsequent prosecution for the same offense.” An acquittal encompasses “any ruling that the prosecution’s proof is insufficient to establish criminal liability for an offense.” A jury’s acquittal is “inviolate” and cannot be reviewed, let alone overturned, by a higher court. This “bright-line rule” preserves the jury’s duty “to stand between the accused and a potentially arbitrary or abusive government that is in command of the criminal sanction.”

Lauren Weber of The Washington Post discusses nonprofits that made a lot of money through the trafficking of COVID-19 misinformation.

Children’s Health Defense, an anti-vaccine group founded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., received $23.5 million in contributions, grants and other revenue in 2022 alone — eight times what it collected the year before the pandemic began — allowing it to expand its state-based lobbying operations to cover half the country. Another influential anti-vaccine group, Informed Consent Action Network, nearly quadrupled its revenue during that time to about $13.4 million in 2022, giving it the resources to finance lawsuits seeking to roll back vaccine requirements as Americans’ faith in vaccines drops.

Two other groups, Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance and America’s Frontline Doctors, went from receiving $1 million combined when they formed in 2020 to collecting more than $21 millioncombined in 2022, according to the latest tax filings available for the groups.

The four groups routinely buck scientific consensus. Children’s Health Defense and Informed Consent Action Network raise doubts about the safety of vaccines despite assurances from federal regulators. “Vaccines have never been safer than they are today,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on its webpage outlining vaccine safety.

Elizabeth Wellington of The Philadelphia Inquirer caught the shoe salesman stealing again.

What unsettles me is the former president’s golden sneaker is a clear nod — albeit gaudy — to hip-hop culture, a culture he’s spent years vilifying. Yeah, I know. Why can’t Trump’s Sneaker Con appearance be about him connecting with his homies over footwear. Why are you making it about race?

The truth is, if it wasn’t for hip-hop culture, sneaker culture wouldn’t exist. And if it wasn’t for Black American culture, hip-hop wouldn’t exist.

Trump is a friend to neither, period. In fact, Trump and many of his Republican supporters are actively trying to wipe Black culture off the American landscape, most egregiously through continued attempts at voter suppression and banning books. Black people benefitted from slavery, so many say. Black history is not American history, they argue.

But sneaker culture is ripe for the taking?

The hypocrisy is astonishing.

Or, is it? Trump’s colonization of sneaker culture is totally on brand. All 1,000 of the limited edition Trump sneaker, made [by] CIC Ventures LLC, have sold out, netting the company at least $400,000. According to the website, the sneakers are not designed, manufactured, distributed or sold by Donald J. Trump, The Trump Organization or any of their respective affiliates or principals. But Trump reported owning CIC Ventures in his 2023 financial disclosure.

Wellington is right regarding the connection of sneaker culture to hip-hop culture but I do remember that in the early 1970s, Converse Chuck Taylors were very popular. My little self wanted a pair soooooo badly. They went out of style when NBA players stopped wearing them in the late 1970s. And I do remember wanting a pair of those knock-off-Chucks called Bata Bullets, too.

I didn’t know that Chuck Taylors dated back to the 1920s, though.

So ...I would mark “sneaker culture” as “beginning” in the mid to late 1970s, perhaps; a little bit before hip-hop. In any event, sneaker culture was well under way by the time this song came out.

David Smith of The Guardian notes that former British Prime Minister Liz Truss showed up here. In the United States. At CPAC. And gave a speech. And blamed her downfall on “the deep state.”

In Wednesday’s opening session, an “international summit”, the ex-PM sat side by side with Nigel Farage, former leader of the Brexit party, both with small Union flags on the table in front of them.

[...]

Not for the first time Truss, whose premiership last only 50 days, sought to portray herself as the victim of bureaucratic forces. “I ran for office in 2022 because Britain wasn’t growing, the state wasn’t delivering, [and] we needed to do more,” she said. “I wanted to cut taxes, reduce the administrative state, take back control as people talked about in the Brexit referendum. What I did face was a huge establishment backlash and a lot of it actually came from the state itself.”

She continued: “What has happened in Britain over the past 30 years is power that used to be in the hands of politicians has been moved to quangos and bureaucrats and lawyers so what you find is a democratically elected government actually unable to enact policies.”

Truss was interrupted and asked to explain the meaning of “quango”. She replied: “A quango is a quasi non-governmental organisation. In America you call it the administrative state or the deep state. But we have more than 500 of these quangos in Britain and they run everything.”

Lettuce Liz is talking about “the establishment” in the original sense that former UK Spectator and Washington Post columnist Henry Fairlie used the word.

Mariko Oi of BBC News reports that Japan’s main stock index, the Nikkei 225, has hit a record high; just above its previous high of 35 years ago. But the Japanese economy is still suffering and has slipped into recession.

The Nikkei 225 rose 2.19% on Thursday to end the trading day at 39,098.68.

That topped the previous record closing high of 38,915.87 set on 29 December 1989, the last day of trading that decade.

Asian technology shares were boosted after US chip giant Nvidia revealed strong earnings, driven by demand for its artificial intelligence processors.

Global investors are returning to the benchmark index thanks to strong company earnings, even as the country's economy has fallen into a recession.

[...]

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by a worse-than-expected 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, compared to a year earlier.

It came after the economy shrank by 3.3% in the previous quarter.

The figures from Japan's Cabinet Office also indicate that the country has lost its position as the world's third-largest economy to Germany.

Lilia Yapparova of the Russian independent media outlet Meduza interviews one of Bellingcat’s lead investigative journalists, Christo Grozev, about the beginnings of his investigation into the death of Russian activist Alexei Navalny.

In early 2021, when Alexey Navalny was getting ready to return to Russia just five months after being poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent, Christo Grozev asked Navalny’s wife Yulia whether she realized that her husband would face certain arrest when his plane landed in Moscow.

“In response, she just smiled and said, ‘Christo, you’re so naive. They won’t just arrest him. They’ll keep him in torture chambers for years. And they might also kill him,’” Grozev told Meduza.

[...]

“I’ve already gotten warnings from my sources that there could be an entire new wave of repressions and murders — that Putin has ‘special plans’ for Russian opposition leaders,” he told Meduza. If these reports are true, he noted, jailed opposition figures such as Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza will be “especially vulnerable” to Putin’s whims ...

[...]

On Sunday, two days after Navalny’s death, Novaya Gazeta reported that Navalny’s body was in a morgue in the town of Salekhard, the capital of the region where he died, and that it has bruises suggesting he was physically restrained while convulsing.

According to Grozev, convulsions are a “typical symptom” of poisoning by high doses of organophosphates, nerve agents expressly prohibited by the U.N. Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a party.

Finally today, Renée Graham of The Boston Globe reminds us that when it comes to the job of defending civil rights and democracy, the “job’s not finished” simply because a charismatic leader dies. Never.

In a widely circulated clip from “Navalny,” the Academy Award-winning documentary about Alexei Navalny — often called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “most formidable opponent” — he was asked what message he would want to leave for his fellow Russians if he were killed by his political enemies.

“Listen, I’ve got something very obvious to tell you — you’re not allowed to give up,” he said, speaking in Russian. “If they decide to kill me, it means that we are incredibly strong. We need to utilize this power to not give up, to remember that we are a huge power that is being oppressed by bad dudes. We don’t realize how strong we actually are. The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing. So don’t be inactive.”

More than a poignant epitaph for Navalny, who died last week under suspicious circumstances in a Russian penal colony, his words were also a pointed directive to his many followers. He not only echoed the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s stance that the “appalling silence of the good people” is as destructive as “the hateful words and actions of the bad people” but also the civil rights leader’s last speech delivered the day before he was assassinated in 1968 in Memphis.

Try to have the best possible day, everyone!

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A weak Donald Trump tries to deal with the world

Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:

The Real Reason Trump Bows Down to Putin

Trump’s comments about NATO and his silence on Navalny have made his relationship with Russia a major issue (again)

Speculating about Trump’s friendship with Putin has been a cottage industry since his 2016 win. Were Trump and Putin in cahoots to defeat Hillary Clinton? Is Trump a Russian sleeper agent? Is this all a play to get a Trump Tower Moscow built? Or, my personal favorite theory, Trump is just worried that Putin will one day release the infamous “pee tape.”

All of these may have elements of truth (especially the “pee tape”), however, I think the correct answer is much simpler. Trump bows down to Putin for the same reasons he bows down to other dictators: he is a weak man. A coward who is scared of confrontation. He would rather preemptively surrender to protect himself than fight to protect others.

He’s the exact opposite of Navalny.

To sum up: RUS/Putin have invaded their neighbor, assassinated the biggest domestic political threat, coopted one of the right's biggest media stars, and seeded a fabricated story about the US President that was echoed by GOP congressional leadership & rightwing media en masse.

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) February 21, 2024

That there is what you call Russian interference.  Or, as Trump puts it, a “hoax”. But I do not think think that word means what he thinks it means.

And I think the voters will care about it when the time comes.

Brian Beutler/Off Message:

Trump's Huge Fraud Verdict Is A Watershed Moment for Accountability—And New Corruption

Democrats and the media need to pay close attention to what happens next.

Democrats, meanwhile, barely talk about Trump’s legal woes at all. The Biden campaign’s Twitter account, a generally spirited rapid-response operation, didn’t mention either verdict.

But the corruption I’m talking about, that I hope Democrats finally take pains to scrutinize aggressively, isn’t the retrospective corruption of a fraudulent businessman who believes he can assault women with impunity.

It’s the corruption he will engage in going forward to avoid the consequences of these verdicts.

Oliver Darcy/CNN:

The Burisma Beginnings: The Burisma bribery narrative pushed by right-wing media against President Joe Biden took an alarming twist on Tuesday after it imploded in spectacular fashion last week. The informant at the center of the narrative, who was charged last week for allegedly lying to the FBI, admitted during an interview with law enforcement that "officials associated with Russian intelligence were involved in passing" along dirt about Hunter Biden. That's according to documents Special Counsel David Weiss filed in court Tuesday. As Todd Zwillich put it on X: "Just so everyone's clear: This would mean that Russia successfully used [Chuck] Grassley[James] Comer, Fox News and others to damage the President of the United States and make fake info about him an article of faith on the right." In the court filing, Weiss also underscored the weight of Alexander Smirnov's alleged lies: "The false information he provided was not trivial. It targeted the presumptive nominee of one of the two major political parties in the United States," Weiss wrote. "The effects of Smirnov’s false statements and fabricated information continue to be felt to this day." CNN's Hannah Rabinowitz has more here.

This impeachment inquiry is uncovering a scandal but I don’t think it’s the one they were hoping for.

— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) February 21, 2024

David Cay Johnston/DC Report:

Trump’s Next Legal Move: Personal Bankruptcy

Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones did it two years ago. Rudolph Giuliani did it just before Christmas. Now there’s a very good chance that before March 12, Donald Trump will join them in filing personal bankruptcy.

Trump would do so for the same reason as Jones and Giuliani — to delay paying court-ordered awards for defamation.

Trump has never filed personal bankruptcy, as I will show below. Doing so now might seem at first blush to ruin his brand, his polished image as a multi-billionaire, a modern Midas who turns to gold all that he touches.

But spinning a bankruptcy filing to his advantage would be easy. Trump will tell his cultish believers that he is as rich as ever, but he was forced to seek refuge in Bankruptcy Court by the Marxist-Fascist-Corrupt-Deep State-Liberal-Radical cabal he blames for his legal woes.

Speaking of weak politicians, here’s Berny Belvedere/The UnPopulist on Tim Scott:

Tim Scott Offers His Honor For a Shot at Trump’s Veepstakes

He is the most disappointing politician in America at the moment

A couple of weeks ago, Trump brought Scott on stage with him during his New Hampshire victory party to undergo a humiliation ritual in which he publicly mused about how much Scott “must hate” Haley since he’s chosen to endorse Trump and not her even though she appointed him to the Senate. It wasn’t a secret that Scott’s decision to endorse Trump ahead of the New Hampshire primary, the most critically important contest for Haley’s chances of overcoming Trump, was meant to assist Trump’s plot to cut her down to size. But instead of mitigating the personal fallout between the two that Scott’s endorsement would inevitably create, Trump deliberately stoked it with his remarks.

We know Trump is like this. But far more significant was Scott’s unprompted response (since Trump’s question was more rhetorical than anything): Instead of grimacing in distaste or looking crestfallen, he moved forward toward the lectern and indicated he wanted to say something. Then, turning to look at Trump face to face, and with uncomfortably deep meaning in his eyes and a broad smile, he said, “I just love you.”

Scott has learned to love Trump—a significantly different posture than appreciating things Trump has done (like appointing conservative justices to the Supreme Court) but through gritted teeth the way we might characterize Haley’s stance. No, this now is love. Scott no longer merely shares a party with Trump, but an agenda.

What happens in a red state never stays in a red state. This should be a five alarm fire. https://t.co/7wC5pPX04o

— Amanda Litman (@amandalitman) February 18, 2024

Dahlia Lithwick/Slate:

The Real Way to Think About Biden’s Age This Run

We’re in a Biden-Trump rematch. And the media is focusing on this?

So now Americans face the problem that Biden is old, while Trump is an authoritarian who wants to “create a private red-state army under the president’s command.” The purpose of this army, per Stephen Miller, is to deport as many as 10 million “foreign-national invaders” who he claims have entered the country under Biden, and the plan, as Ron Brownstein describes it, is to “go around the country arresting illegal immigrants in large-scale raids.” Then, he would build “large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in Texas,” to serve as internment camps for migrants designated for deportation.

One can certainly see why the two stories would weigh the same.

Perhaps one way to navigate yourself through this seemingly insoluble morass would be to ask yourself why Biden, who is stipulated #Old, has managed to helm the most successful presidency in modern history. Booming economy, eye-popping jobs reports, first gun violence reduction bill in decades, $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan plus COVID relief, Inflation Reduction Act, infrastructure prioritized, judges seated. Pick your metric—there have been a lot of wins. And the reason this old man who sometimes forgets things like dates has gotten all this done? He has, for the most part, surrounded himself with experts, genuine scientists, respected economists, and effective governmental actors and advisers.

Well, there’s that.

Can confirm https://t.co/LkeQMEDDCk

— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) February 18, 2024

POLITICO:

Trump allies prepare to infuse ‘Christian nationalism’ in second administration

Spearheading the effort is Russell Vought, president of The Center for Renewing America, part of a conservative consortium preparing for Trump’s return to power.

The documents obtained by POLITICO do not outline specific Christian nationalist policies. But Vought has promoted a restrictionist immigration agenda, saying a person’s background doesn’t define who can enter the U.S., but rather, citing Biblical teachings, whether that person “accept[ed] Israel’s God, laws and understanding of history.”

[…]

While speaking in September at American Moment’s “ Theology of American Statecraft: The Christian Case for Immigration Restriction” on Capitol Hill in September, Vought defended the widely-criticized practice of family separation at the border during the Trump years, telling the audience “the decision to defend the rule of law necessitates the separation of families.”

The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 offers more visibility into what policy agenda a future Trump administration might pursue. It says policies that support LGBTQ+ rights, subsidize “single-motherhood” and penalize marriage should be repealed because subjective notions of “gender identity” threaten “Americans’ fundamental liberties.”

At a time when White Christians are falling toward 40% of US population & white evangelicals are down to about 1/7 per @PRRIpoll, religious conservatives are escalating efforts to write their values & grievances into law across the red states on a widening array of issues https://t.co/atVPHLeGSP

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) February 20, 2024

Dan Shafer/”The Recombobulation Area” on Substack:

'It’s a new day in Wisconsin.' Your votes made that happen.

RIP to The Gerrymander.

This is a victory not for any one political party, but a victory for Wisconsin, for democracy, and for fair representation. The Gerrymander has divided Wisconsin for so many years. It has greatly limited competition in state legislative districts, making it tremendously difficult to hold legislators accountable by way of the ballot box. That part is over now.

I distinctly believe that the end of The Gerrymander in Wisconsin will make for a healthier political process in this state. That legislators having to compete and earn our votes instead of having them handed to them through an unfairly tilted map will bring about better representation across the political spectrum. That this will make legislators more responsive to their constituents, to majority public opinion on key issues, and more respectful and cooperative with each other as lawmakers. That this will bring about a genuine change to our truly toxic legislative branch.

And yet, many of the same people will still be there in the state legislature, of course, so this “new day” will still have many of the same old faces. Many of the same intractable problems will continue to exist. Fixing the deeply broken institution of the Wisconsin State Legislature after more than a decade under the control of Robin Vos and this group of state Republicans is going to take some time.

Celebrate, Badger State! Your activism made it happen. And/but everything is a multi-step process, from reviving Wisconsin Democrats, to electing a fair-minded Wisconsin Supreme Court, to proposing and signing the new maps.

The electoral side of the Resistance (Indivisible, Run for Something, Moms Demand Action) keeps grinding and winning, too. The performative stuff faded but these voters cram into any available polling booth. Ask Tom Souzzi! https://t.co/k1PnTz9Lgp

— David Weigel (@daveweigel) February 19, 2024

For an argument against incrementalism, here’s David Rothkopf and Alon Pinkas/The New Republic:

How One Error May Haunt Biden’s Foreign Policy Legacy

The president’s foolish trust in Netanyahu was a terrible mistake. It’s not too late to correct—barely—but tough medicine is required.

Netanyahu is untrustworthy. He has a proven record of manipulation, deceit, and mendacity. He is a sworn enemy of peace in the region. He has treated Palestinians with disdain and disrespect ever since he entered politics. And the extremists in his coalition are even worse—rabid theocratic nationalists who believe that Israeli lives are infinitely more valuable than those of their closest neighbors.

The secondary error that the Biden team is now making is that, after the catastrophic consequences of its policy have become painfully clear, it is seeking to fix the mistake not by undoing it but by augmenting its policy with incremental measures. You can’t fine-tune a massive error into being a success. That is a lesson the United States learned in Vietnam, in Iraq, and in Afghanistan.

Cliff Schecter highlights Texas Democrat Jasmine Crockett:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Trump trials take the spotlight this week

The New York Times

Judge Sets Trial Date in Trump’s Manhattan Criminal Case

Ruling that the case against Donald J. Trump can proceed, Justice Juan M. Merchan said he planned to begin the trial on March 25.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

In fiery testimony, Willis defends herself against accusations of misconduct

Ex-employee claims relationship began earlier than acknowledged

Add to this the expectation that Judge Arthur Engoron will make public his judgment in the real estate fraud case, and the possibility of a SCOTUS decision on an immunity challenge. 

Philip Bump/Washington Post:

Remember the ‘Biden bribe’ allegation? DOJ now says it was made up.

It is hard to overstate how much energy Republicans and their allies in the right-wing media invested in the idea that this was credible. When he announced the launch of an impeachment probe of Biden in September, then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) invoked the Smirnov allegation…

Fox News has mentioned Biden in the context of “bribe” or “bribery” more than 2,600 times over the past 12 months. A Media Matters review of host Sean Hannity’s efforts to bolster the Republican impeachment effort tallied at least 85 segments focused on the allegation and the FBI form that documented it — despite the complete dearth of evidence supporting the idea.

On Sept. 7, Comer was asked by a Fox Business host about the lack of movement on the bribery allegation. Comer suggested there had been a “coverup” by the government.

It appears that Comer was wrong.

The Taylor Swift effect was real for this year's recording-breaking Super Bowl: • Female viewership ages 12-17 up +11% • Female viewership ages 18-24 up +24% Women also represented 47.5% of the total audience for this year's Super Bowl — an all-time high. (h/t @paulsen_smw) pic.twitter.com/koBzRiao5n

— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) February 14, 2024

Jake Sherman/X:

THE DISASTER THAT IS HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP

Just this week, @SpeakerJohnson has:

  • Seen Democrats win a special election in New York, narrowing the already minuscule GOP majority to two votes.
  • Lost a sixth rule vote on the House floor — a measure that would’ve allowed an increase in the state-and-local tax (SALT) deduction — when 18 Republicans bucked their own leadership and voted no. This Republican majority has lost more rule votes than any other majority in five decades, a stunning sign of weakness.
  • → Abruptly pulled a bill to overhaul FISA due to Republican infighting. The GOP leadership said the House would vote on the bill before locking down the votes, despite some senior Republicans raising internal objections. This is the second time Johnson had to pull a FISA bill this Congress.
  • → Seen another committee chair announce his resignation. @RepMarkGreen, chair of the Homeland Security Committee, is leaving Congress after only six years. The 59-year-old Green — the fourth committee chair to retire — just led the impeachment of DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
  • → Decided against putting a bill on the floor to provide billions of dollars in new aid to Israel without offsets. Just a week ago, Johnson allowed a vote on Israel aid that he knew was going to fail.
  • → Provided absolutely no insight to rank-and-file lawmakers on how he’ll handle the Senate’s bipartisan $95 billion foreign aid package. Johnson said the bill isn’t a priority because the federal government is scheduled to shut down in a few weeks.
  • → Witnessed the House Intelligence Committee chair issue a dire public warning about a “serious national security threat” to the country, only to have Senate Intelligence Committee leaders and the White House downplay the issue.

Rep. Carlos Giminez, a Florida Republican, says he supports Ukraine aid and won’t rule out sidestepping Speaker Johnson to pass it: “It’s necessary that we fund Ukraine,” he tells reporters — adding a bill doesn’t need border provisions. “One has nothing to do with the other.”

— Haley Byrd Wilt 🌻 (@byrdinator) February 15, 2024

Paul Waldman/”The Cross Section” on Substack:

Why everyone refuses to believe what voters are telling them about immigration

Republicans keep losing on the issue, yet Democrats are supposed to be the ones who don't get it.

Republicans just lost yet another election in which they figured fear-mongering on immigration was all they needed to succeed. Now they’re embarking on a farcical impeachment of Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas for imaginary crimes and misdemeanors, because just as they believe that khaki-clad trips to the southern border are public relations gold, they think impeaching Mayorkas will help Donald Trump win November’s election and secure their razor-thin House majority, simply by keeping the issue of immigration in the news.

Despite the GOP’s record of repeated failure to turn immigration into electoral results, the vast majority of the political class in Washington — including Republicans, Democrats, and journalists — remains convinced that the losing Republican strategy is actually brilliant, and it’s the Democrats who need to change their ways. The issue of immigration, they assume, is a kind of electoral magic weapon whose unstoppable power will slay all Democrats who stand before it.

But they’re just wrong. The voters keep telling them so, and they refuse to accept it.

This is a terrific podcast interview of Tom Suozzi’s pollster by Greg Sargent, fresh off Suozzi’s Tuesday special election win.

Among the things discussed: how the campaign approached the immigration issue (order and fairness), how persuasion mattered (getting Republicans and independents to vote for Suozzi), and the salience of abortion (very).

Very good interview with a very good pollster, Mike Bocian, who led Suozzi's polling team. This point about abortion rights is massive. The issue didn't mobilize Dems in NY3 in '22. By emphasizing the threat of a national ban in this race, they changed that. https://t.co/J2BW7F7h7K

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) February 15, 2024

It may not be predictive of a November win, but it’s something of a roadmap for how to get there. It’s well worth your time.

Fox's talk shows have been obsessed with the allegation of a "Biden bribe." Now the so-called "informant" has been arrested and charged with lying. The # of times this bombshell was mentioned by Laura Ingraham, Jesse Watters and Sean Hannity tonight: Zero.

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) February 16, 2024

Jill Lawrence/The Bulwark:

Whatever Donald Wants, Donald Gets

Trump’s march through the GOP is leaving it in ruins.

Right now, Trump has far too much control over Republicans who should know better, using a disconcerting but effective combination of brute force and sinister charm.

He’s rampaging through U.S. politics like a modern-day William T. Sherman on his Atlanta-to-Savannah March to the Sea. Gen. Sherman’s goal was to foster fear, inflict pain, and get Georgians to ditch the Confederate cause. Trump has adopted his own fear-and-pain approach on his march toward ever-greater domination of the GOP House, the Republican National Committee (he wants it run by an election denier and his daughter-in-law, nothing to see here), and, of course, the Republican presidential primary season and 2024 nomination.

"I'm not telling you I won't [vote for Biden], I'm just telling you I'm not there yet. The only thing that I have decided firmly is that I will not vote for Trump under any circumstances." - @GovChristie Full interview: https://t.co/jiB0jYnwPm#PodSaveAmerica #CrookedMedia pic.twitter.com/hrxqMbIpsW

— Pod Save America (@PodSaveAmerica) February 15, 2024

He’ll get there before Nikki Haley, methinks.

From a ⁦@tarapalmeri⁩ newsletter, on “normie” Republicans retiring from the House: pic.twitter.com/Jdhb6zmJD4

— Steve Inskeep (@NPRinskeep) February 16, 2024

Joe Perticone/The Bulwark:

The Biden Impeachment Has Been Great for Joe Biden

But this week, the House Oversight Committee deposed [Hunter Biden associate Tony] Bobulinski as part of its ongoing haphazard impeachment inquiry into the president. What happened the moment the deposition concluded felt quite familiar to those who have followed the inquiry:

  • Oversight Chairman James Comer issued a declarative statement, unencumbered by evidence or specific details, that President Biden is corrupt.

  • Fox News reporter Brooke Singman published EXCLUSIVE bombshell reports recounting Bobulinski’s story that Biden “enabled” the sale of access to “dangerous adversaries” and that Biden is “the big guy,” along with other words in liability-limiting “scare quotes.”

  • What Bobulinski actually offered Oversight members inside the room turned out to be more of what he’s been trying to sell lawmakers and journalists for years: more conjecture and underwhelming, questionable testimony. The result is as familiar as the process: The impeachment inquiry, though shaking and whirring loudly, remains stuck in the hyperpartisan muck.

From Cliff Schecter:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A lose-lose for Republicans in the Senate

Washington Post:

Senate votes to advance Ukraine-Israel package after border deal fails

GOP senators have been deeply divided on how to proceed on the foreign aid package, with some critics arguing that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) led them into a political box canyon where Democrats have claimed the political edge on border security after they voted down the border deal they initially demanded. A vocal faction of McConnell critics have grown louder over the past week, with a handful even calling for his ouster, as Senate Republicans have gathered in meeting after meeting and argued about the uncomfortable political situation they find themselves in.

“The Republicans wanted something and then decided that they didn’t want that thing," said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), referring to border security provisions. “Now, some of them want it again, and I think the adults are just moving on.”

But ultimately McConnell was joined by 17 fellow Republicans to advance the deal...

So what did all the drama over the border bill get the GOP? Bipartisan reprobation from their colleagues, international scorn, bad press, and in the end the bill Democrats wanted.

“They reacted to it like it was a poison,” said Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut of Senate Republicans who had previously signaled they were supportive. “I think it’s unforgiveable what they did to James.” @MCJalonick @stephengroves https://t.co/S2qgqITeNP

— Michael Tackett (@tackettdc) February 8, 2024

Associated Press:

Abandoned by his colleagues after negotiating a border compromise, GOP senator faces backlash alone

As the Republican quietly watched from a floor above, briefly the outsider after defending his legislation in a last Senate floor speech, fellow negotiator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona was down on the floor excoriating the Republicans who had abandoned Lankfordone by one, after insisting on a border deal and asking him to negotiate a compromise on one of the country’s most intractable issues.

“Less than 24 hours after we released the bill, my Republican colleagues changed their minds,” said Sinema, a former Democrat turned Independent. “Turns out they want all talk and no action. It turns out border security is not a risk to our national security. It’s just a talking point for the election.”

Lankford voted no on the Ukraine-Israel bill that advanced.

Poland’s Prime Minister:

Dear Republican Senators of America. Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you.

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) February 8, 2024

Rick Hasen/Slate:

A Grand Bargain Is Emerging in the Supreme Court’s Trump Cases, But Chaos May Be Ahead

After oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Trump v. Anderson, a grand bargain that appears to make practical sense as a compromise is beginning to come into view: The Supreme Court unanimously, or nearly so, holds that Colorado does not have the power to remove Donald Trump from the ballot, but in a separate case it rejects his immunity argument and makes Trump go on trial this spring or summer on federal election subversion charges. Depending upon how the court writes its opinion, however, it could leave the door open for chaos in January, if Donald Trump appears to win the 2024 election and a Democratic Congress rejects Electoral College votes for him on grounds he’s disqualified. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, however, may have seen this danger and found a way around it. If the court’s going to side with Trump in the disqualification case, it should embrace Justice Jackson’s rationale, even if it is not the most legally sound one.

I’ll take that bargain.

"My memory is fine." President Joe Biden slams a special counsel’s report for raising questions about his mental acuity and age https://t.co/wBLRZa9cjB pic.twitter.com/xpl0rc4MZn

— Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) February 9, 2024

Kevin Lind/Columbia Journalism Review:

Q&A: Dahlia Lithwick on the Colorado case, the election, and the press

I don’t think this is the vehicle that the Supreme Court will use to decide the outcome of the 2024 election. My sense is that this is both an intensely political case about the branches checking each other, and there are legitimate claims that the underlying process in the Colorado courts didn’t afford due process to Trump. In other words, if you’re going to do something that is the death penalty for a presidential election, you can’t do it with this little process. My instinct is that there are five votes on the current Supreme Court, at least, who do not want to see Donald Trump as the president in 2024—if he legitimately hasn’t won—and I don’t think this is the vehicle that they would choose to do it. It is the biggest, most dramatic intervention, and it would have the biggest fallout.

GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski said it was unclear who could trust the GOP to negotiate after they scuttled the bipartisan border bill. She told me: “I’ve gone through the multile stages of grief. Today I’m just pissed off.”

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) February 7, 2024

New York Times:

Johnson Stumbles, Deepening Republican Disarray and His Own Challenges

Little more than 100 days into his tenure, the speaker who was handed an impossible job has only made it more difficult for himself, baffling his colleagues.

The back-to-back defeats highlighted the litany of problems Mr. Johnson inherited the day he was elected speaker and his inexperience in the position, roughly 100 days after being catapulted from the rank and file to the top job in the House. Saddled with a razor-thin margin of control, and a deeply divided conference that has proved repeatedly to be a majority in name only, he has struggled to corral his unruly colleagues and made a series of decisions that only added to his own challenges.

Nancy Pelosi thought bubble: count the votes, and then bring it to the floor for a vote, not the other way around. 

Due largely to an unexpected surge in immigration, the U.S. economy will be about $7 trillion larger - & federal revenues about $1T bigger - the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday

— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) February 7, 2024

Washington Post:

GOP leaders face unrest amid chaotic, bungled votes

Former president Donald Trump has used his perch as the GOP front-runner to bend Congress to his political whims

Moments before pandemonium broke out on the House floor on Tuesday evening, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer approached Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who had assumed a leisurely slouch in a rickety wooden chair in the back of the House chamber, for what appeared to be a quick chat.

...

“Speaker Johnson never called me,” Buck said. “[Former speaker Kevin McCarthy] would have yelled — Mike knows me well enough not to yell. And [former speaker John A.] Boehner would have broken my arm. It’s gotten easier as I’ve been here.”

NEWS—Biden issues national security memorandum on “safeguards and accountability” for U.S. military aid Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) tells us this is in keeping w/his amendment to the foreign aid bill that would require recipients of U.S. aid to comply w/int’l humanitarian law

— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) February 9, 2024

This goes along with Biden remarks at his brief press conference last evening about Israel going ‘over the top’.

David Bier/The UnPopulist:

Secretary Mayorkas Is Being Impeached for Following the Law on Border Enforcement

Republicans are the ones making unconstitutional demands

Mayorkas would have been the first government official to be impeached for actually staying within the bounds of the Constitution. In fact, it is the Republicans who are making unconstitutional demands.

In the impeachment articles they drafted, they alleged that Mayorkas failed to block immigrants entering not just illegally but also legally and detain them—in inhumane and unconstitutional conditions—rather than release them. Even more absurd than the allegations is the fact that in the process of making them, Republicans repeatedly misstated the law, quoted overturned court decisions, and, hilariously, confused DHS Secretary Mayorkas’ actions with those of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others.

All of this proves just how Orwellian our political discourse on immigration has become.

Let’s go through their allegations.

And just for fun, this from Walter Shapiro/Roll Call was from late January:

Will voters punish total incompetence? House Republicans are about to find out Evidence is scant that voters would punish blundering ineptitude

So what if Johnson is poised to reject the first serious effort in years to control the chaos on our southern border? So what if Johnson is willing to let aid to Ukraine go down the tubes as part of a package deal on immigration?

The House Republicans are living in a fairy tale world. Alas, the fairy tale is taken from the Grimm Brothers and the Republicans are emulating Rumpelstiltskin, stomping their feet through the ground when they don’t get their way.

Reality check: There is no coherent strategy for House Republicans to prevail, with their fragile three-vote majority, when the Democrats control the Senate and the White House. That may explain why they are banking on divine intervention in the form of a second Trump presidency.

Cliff Schecter with a musical/political interlude:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Trump v. Anderson

We begin today with Ann E. Marimow of The Washington Post and her primer on Trump v. Anderson, the Colorado Supreme Court case involving Number 45’s disqualification from the Colorado presidential ballot, which will have oral arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court later this morning.

The justices will decide whether Colorado’s top court was correct to apply a post-Civil War provision of the Constitution to order Trump off the ballot after concluding his actions around the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol amounted to insurrection. Primary voting is already underway in some states. Colorado’s ballots for the March 5 primary were printed last week and include Trump’s name. But his status as a candidate will depend on what the Supreme Court decides.

Unlike Bush v. Gore in 2000, when the court’s decision handed the election to George W. Bush, the case challenging Trump’s qualifications for a second term comes at a time when a large swath of the country views the Supreme Court through a partisan lens and a significant percentage still believes false claims that the last presidential election was rigged. [...]

But election law experts have implored the justices to definitively decide the key question of whether Trump is disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, settling the issue nationwide so that other states with similar challenges to Trump’s candidacy follow along.

They warn of political instability not seen since the Civil War if the court was to overturn Colorado’s ruling but leave open the possibility that Congress could try to disqualify Trump later in the process, including after the general election.

Oral arguments for Trump v. Anderson begin at 10 AM ET and can be followed through a number of available audio feeds.

Donald K. Sherman writes for Slate that Trump v. Anderson is, in many ways, this generation’s Brown v. Board of Education.

Now the Supreme Court is facing another inflection point to consider democratic protections. On Thursday, the justices will hear arguments in Trump v. Anderson, to consider whether to uphold Donald Trump’s disqualification from office given the Colorado Supreme Court’s finding that he engaged in an insurrection by inciting the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. As the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, which famously litigated Brown, argued in a friend of the court brief filed in Anderson, the “Reconstruction Amendments were enacted to ensure that the worst abuses in our nation’s history are not repeated and to achieve the fullest ideals of our democracy. But those Amendments are effective only when those responsible for applying them have the courage to do so.”

Of course, millions of Americans would be disappointed or even infuriated if Trump is removed from the ballot. Some may even turn to violence. But that threat is obvious given the former president’s incitement of violence after his refusal to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election. Trump’s supporters continue to threaten violence in his name, and without condemnation by the candidate. In his briefs before the Supreme Court, Trump has threatened “bedlam” if he is kept off the ballot, but the bedlam he provoked on Jan. 6 is how we got here—and why he is disqualified by the Constitution from serving as president again. [...]

If the Supreme Court allowed concerns about civil unrest or violence to deter enforcement of the Constitution, especially the 14th Amendment, then Black Americans and millions of others would never have secured the rights enshrined after the Civil War. Brown provoked immediate backlash from many white Americans, including violence, riots, and the founding of segregation academies throughout the South—with effects still seen today. Because the court did not cower in the face of this resistance, our country continued forward on the path toward a more just and democratic society.

The amicus curiae brief filed by the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund for Trump v. Anderson (linked in the excerpt) is a great read and a short read.

For example, the footnote at the bottom of page 7 reminds us that part of the insurrection scheme was designed “to undermine the voting rights and full citizenship of Black voters in violation of the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments and other federal laws.”

Kevin Lind of Columbia Journalism Review interviews Slate’s senior editor Dahila Lithwick about Trump v. Anderson and, more generally, about how the media covers the courts.

[LIND]: You gave a talk at Columbia Journalism School’s graduation last year (I was among the graduating class) and discussed how reporters from other beats broke major stories about the Supreme Court—particularly around undisclosed gifts from wealthy interests to justices—as opposed to court reporters doing it. What led to that happening, and what can journalists learn from that experience?

[LITHWICK]: I think that the Supreme Court press corps had a narrow aperture for what its responsibility was. There was a sense that its job was to cover the cases—What’s happened in oral argument; here’s what the decision held. We had this pristine beat, covering the law itself. The justices who produced it are nameless, faceless actors in a sausage-making factory, and we just write about the sausage. It became clear that there wasn’t a beat that was asking, Who are these justices, how do they get on the court, how do they decide cases? and Who’s paying for what, why is it never disclosed, and why are we constantly told that probing these things is somehow destabilizing to the rule of law? We were so busy guarding the henhouse that it took us years to realize nobody was covering the foxes.

We’ve really seen a change both in investigative journalists being sicced on the court and the raft of important stories that have subsequently come out. Stuff is starting to happen, but the critique was another version of what I said before, which is that we’re so busy covering this structure, we forgot to cover all of the systems and subterranean money. We failed to cover it, or we covered it incidentally. It is incredibly boring to write about how a handful of dark-money groups essentially captured the Supreme Court. But the fact that the press didn’t think that was a front-page story day after day, as it happened, for decades? That’s on us.

David A. Graham of The Atlantic looks at the week of Congressional Republicans in disarray (and the week isn’t even finished!).

Underlying the drama was a banal truth: Speaker Mike Johnson doesn’t have a grip on his caucus. Maybe no one could manage such a thin majority, but his task will be even harder after yesterday’s failure. (Johnson vowed to try again on the Mayorkas impeachment. We’ll see.) The inexperienced Johnson is speaker thanks to Trump, who cheered on conservative rebels against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and refused to save him. Johnson’s rise was due in part to his starring role in attempts to overturn the 2020 election. (An irony: If McCarthy hadn’t resigned after his ouster, Republicans might have had the votes yesterday.)

Things are barely going better for the Senate Republican caucus. Over recent months, that group hatched what seemed like a clever plan to entrap Democrats. Rather than pass a bill with aid to Ukraine and Israel, which the White House as well as many GOP members wanted, it would tie those issues to tighter security at the southern border. That would force Democrats to support policies that the GOP wanted, or else to vote against them and face political blowback on immigration, Trump’s favorite campaign issue. [...]

“I feel like the guy standing in the middle of a field in a thunderstorm holding up a metal stick,” Lankford lamented last week, before lightning struck. “The reason we’ve been talking about the border is because they wanted to, the persistent critics,” McConnell told Politico. “You can’t pass a bill without dealing with a Democratic president and a Democratic Senate.”

McConnell is right, but no one in his caucus wants to hear it. As for Lankford, his mistake was believing his colleagues when they said they wanted a bill that would tighten the border, and then trying to write one. But the Trump wing of the Republican Party isn’t interested in policy—it’s interested in sending signals. The MAGA crowd would rather impeach Mayorkas, even if they know he won’t be convicted and it won’t change anything, than enact a law that actually affects the border. The point is expression, not legislation.

Bill McKibben of the Guardian has nothing but good things to say about the Biden Administration’s decision to say no to big oil in one respect.

Ten days ago Joe Biden did something remarkable, and almost without precedent – he actually said no to big oil.

His administration halted the granting of new permits for building liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, something Washington had been handing out like M&Ms on Halloween for nearly a decade. It’s a provisional “no” – Department of Energy experts will spend the coming months figuring out a new formula for granting the licenses that takes the latest science and economics into account – but you can tell what a big deal it is because of the howls of rage coming from the petroleum industry and its gaggle of politicians.

And you can tell something else too: just how threadbare their arguments have become over time. Biden has called their bluff, and it’s beautiful to watch.

Charles Blow of The New York Times reminds us of a previous schism between Jewish Americans and African Americans over the Six-Day War of 1967 and says that It still has lessons to offer us today.

Despite the fact that Jewish American sentiments don’t necessarily align with sentiments in Israel, the world’s lone Jewish state, or with the policies of Israel’s government, there are parallels between the perceived split years ago and the current cleavage: Many Black Americans, especially younger, politically engaged Black Americans, oppose Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza, with particular concern about the death toll among Palestinian civilians.

Many Jewish Americans support Israel’s right to conduct the war and American support for Israel’s war effort in order to eliminate the threat posed by Hamas — and some feel disappointed or even betrayed that many Black people seem to have more sympathy for the Palestinian perspective than the Israeli perspective.

The issues involved feel irreconcilable, because many of those engaged in the debate believe that their positions represent the moral high ground. And nuanced views are sometimes characterized as weak. But there has to be room for nuance.

David Gilbert of WIRED has exclusive reporting about a Russian disinformation campaign involving the border “crisis.”

The disinformation campaign began in earnest in late January, and expanded after Russian politicians spoke out when the US Supreme Court lifted an order by a lower court and sided with President Joe Biden’s administration to rule that US Border Patrol officers were allowed to take down razor-wire fencing erected by the Texas National Guard. Days later, when Texas governor Greg Abbott refused to stand down, former Russian president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, who is currently deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, claimed that the Texas border dispute is “another vivid example of the US hegemony getting weaker.” [...]

After these comments, state media, influencers, and bloggers quickly got involved. Over the past two weeks, state-run media outlets like Sputnik and RT have called the dispute between the Texas governor and the Biden administration a “constitutional crisis” and an “unmitigated disaster,” while one Sputnik correspondent posed a video on the outlet’s X account, stating: “There’s a big convoy of truck drivers going down there. So, it can very easily get out of hand. It can genuinely lead to an actual civil war, where the US Army is fighting against US citizens.”

On Telegram, there were clear signs of a coordinated effort to boost conversations around the Texas crisis, according to analysis shared exclusively with WIRED by Logically, a company using artificial intelligence to track disinformation campaigns.

Finally today, Alex Burness of Bolts writes about a new initiative by a Montgomery County, PA county commissioner to create mobile units designed to go into neighborhoods to help voters “cure” their ballots.

Having won his election last November, [Neil] Makhija is now in a position to secure voting rights from the inside. County commissions in most of Pennsylvania double as boards of elections, with broad discretion over election procedures, handing Makhija power to help shape how voting is conducted in the third most populous county of this pivotal swing state. And he’s intent on getting creative.

Makhija tells Bolts he intends to propose that Montgomery County set up a mobile unit that’d go into neighborhoods to help people resolve mistakes they’ve made on their mail ballots.

He likens his proposal, which election experts say does not currently exist anywhere in Pennsylvania, to an ice cream truck for voting.

“Imagine if voting was as efficient and accessible as getting an Amazon delivery or calling an Uber,” Makhija told Bolts. “Exercising fundamental rights shouldn’t be more burdensome.”

Try to have the best possible day everyone!