Month: August 2022

Trump loyalists increasing ranks in GOP House

Posted on (Updated by Emily Brooks

Expect a Trumpier U.S. House of Representatives next year.

House Republicans are not only forecast to win control of the lower chamber in November's midterm elections, they're also poised to bring with them a roster of new arrivals who have embraced the former president and his false claims of fraud surrounding his 2020 defeat. 

A number of Trump loyalists have bumped off more moderate Republicans in the summer primaries — a list that grew longer on Tuesday with conservative victories in Florida and New York — while a number of other centrists are stepping into retirement.

The combination foreshadows a power shift in the House GOP that has the potential to complicate any bipartisan compromise with President Biden, while creating headaches for Republican leaders who will face pressure to demonstrate their governing chops in a new majority. 

“I believe that [House Minority Leader] Kevin McCarthy [Calif.] would have a rough time of it,” said David Mayhew, a political scientist at Yale University.

Joe Kent, a former Green Beret, defeated pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in a Washington GOP primary earlier this month with the help of an endorsement from Trump. Running as an “America First” Republican, he railed against the “establishment” and publicly said that McCarthy, the House GOP leader, should not be Speaker.  

And he’s hardly alone. 

In the most recent round of primaries, winners in safe Republican House seats include former Trump appointee to the Pentagon Cory Mills, who has said that the 2020 election was “rigged.” Mills would replace outgoing Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.).

New York State GOP Chairman Nick Langworthy, who heavily touted his previous support from Trump in the primary despite not getting a formal endorsement for the race, also won a primary in a safe GOP district on Tuesday. Rep. Chris Jacobs (R-N.Y.) ended his reelection bid for that seat due to blowback to his support for an assault weapons ban.

One of the starkest signs that incoming House Republicans will be friendlier to the former president is that Mills and Langworthy were considered the less extreme candidates in their races. 

Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino, a gaffe-prone Trump supporter who was endorsed by Trump allies Reps. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), and Elise Stefanik (N.Y.). And Mills faced Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, who was also supported by Gaetz and Greene and accused Mills of being a “RINO,” an acronym for "Republican in name only."

Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership that supports “governing Republicans” who are willing to work across the aisle, pointed to the defeats of Paladino and Sabatini to argue that loyalty to Trump may not be a defining feature of incoming Republicans.

“When the members sit around a table, Donald Trump is not what they discuss. They discuss Joe Biden and getting things done to help the American people,” Chamberlain said of the candidates supported by her group. “They're not against them by any means. They voted for him. But he is not a topic of conversation.”

Still, several of the candidates highlighted as “Young Guns” by the National Republican Congressional Committee have also expressed skepticism about the 2020 election, even if they did not make loyalty to Trump a key part of their candidate pitch this year.

Derrick Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL seeking to replace retiring Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.), attended the “Stop the Steal” rally at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, but has said he never entered the Capitol and has since distanced himself from the events of that day.

Contributing to the likely power shift, many House Republicans who were critical of Trump or did not overtly embrace him will not be returning in 2022.

Eight of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack either declined to run for reelection or lost their primaries. Others, like Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) and Rep. David McKinley (R-W.Va.), lost in primaries against other Trump-backed members after being put up against each other due to redistricting.

Meanwhile, Trump allies like Gaetz and Greene sailed through their primaries.

The House Freedom Caucus, the group of hard-line conservatives, is likely to grow. A PAC affiliated with the group, the House Freedom Fund, is supporting Trump-endorsed newcomers Anna Paulina Luna in Florida, Bo Hines in North Carolina, and Jim Bognet in Pennsylvania.

If history is any guide, Republican leaders will have a delicate line to walk if they win back House control with a more conservative majority.

GOP leaders embraced the Tea Party movement in the late aughts, which provided the burst of energy leading directly to their House takeover in 2010. But it was those same conservative majority-makers — and eventual Freedom Caucus founders — who fought their own leadership over everything from government spending to the proposed impeachment of President Obama. 

The far-right pressure pushed former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) into retirement, prevented McCarthy from rising to the Speakership in 2015 and was a thorn in the side of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) during his short stint with the gavel. 

Some congressional experts predict the new wave of Trump loyalists will create similar headaches for GOP leaders next year — unless leadership jumps on board. 

“Donald Trump was the first Republican candidate for president who truly understood what the Tea Party was all about. The Paul Ryans of this world thought it was about small government. Wrong! It was a populist uprising,” said Bill Galston, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Trump got it right; everybody else got it wrong. And so he has now elevated that big Trump party, which is socially conservative but economically inclined to big government that serves their interests. 

“These are not libertarians; they're anti-libertarians in all sorts of ways,” Galston added. “And that's the Republican Party now."

The influence of aggressive, Trump-loving House members and the number of headaches they create for GOP leadership next year may depend on how successful Republicans are in House races overall in this year’s midterms. Many of the newcomer GOP candidates in competitive races trying to unseat Democrats are more centrist, and largely do not talk about the former president.

The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a super PAC aligned with McCarthy, has also swooped in to support incumbent members who fought off more extreme challengers. 

The CLF deployed a last-minute $50,000 in phone calls to support Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) on Tuesday as he fended off a surprisingly strong challenge from far-right, anti-Muslim activist Laura Loomer, who has been banned from multiple social media platforms.

It also helped centrist Republican Rep. David Valadao (Calif.), who voted to impeach Trump, and Rep. Young Kim (Calif.) advance to the general election as they faced more conservative challengers.

Maloney loss prompts Dem pileup for top spot on investigative panel

Posted on (Updated by By Jordain Carney and Kyle Cheney

Multiple Democrats are already fighting to take Rep. Carolyn Maloney's top spot on the influential House Oversight Committee, less than 24 hours after her primary loss to Rep. Jerry Nadler.

The early jockeying, with at least four Democrats either openly announcing a run or being mentioned as a potential successor, previews what could be a heated scramble that will come to a head after the November election.

Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), a senior member of the committee, quickly became the first to jump into the ring, touting both his experience on the committee and his willingness to tangle with Republicans.

“We need a tested leader who will not be timid in the face of Republican insurrectionists. One who has a deep understanding of the issues facing our Committee and our country,” Connolly said in a statement, adding that he believes "I can be that leader."

But his announcement didn't clear the field. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) also said in a letter to colleagues on Wednesday that he was seeking the post, and there are signals that Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) is interested in running as well.

Because Republicans are expected to flip the chamber in November, whoever succeeds Maloney would likely be the top Democrat and the ranking member on the committee, not the chair. But it would still be a high-profile perch on an influential committee that is expected to be at the center of some of the biggest investigations of the next Congress, including Hunter Biden and the origins of the coronavirus. Democrats would be able to use a series of closely watched hearings to push back on GOP probes or counter their messages.

The fight over who will succeed Maloney is the latest sign of the musical chairs Democrats could be forced to play after November. They've faced a wave of retiring members, others leaving due to the realities of redistricting and bigger questions about the potential for a leadership shake-up. Younger members of the caucus have privately grumbled for years about the inability to gain a foothold in leadership or attain plum committee positions because of a tier of long-serving lawmakers.

Lynch, who previously challenged Maloney for the post in 2019 before dropping out, said in the letter to his colleagues that he was “the most senior member of the Oversight Committee seeking this position” and that he is “well prepared to serve at this pivotal moment in our history.”

Meanwhile, Raskin told POLITICO that he is "actively exploring it and will have something to say this week.” Raskin is no stranger to the spotlight — Speaker Nancy Pelosi has appointed him to helm some of the most politically sensitive tasks in the current Congress.

She named him to lead the second impeachment of Donald Trump, just days after a mob of the then-president’s supporters attacked the Capitol — and only weeks after Raskin experienced his own profound personal tragedy, the death of his son, Tommy. She also put him on the Jan. 6 select committee, where he’s become one of the panel’s most outspoken voices, with a particular focus on the nexus between the extremist groups who helped drive the mob and figures in Trump’s orbit.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), another member of the Oversight Committee, is also being mentioned as a potential Maloney successor. But Khanna is publicly urging Raskin to run and that he wants “progressives and the Dem Caucus to rally around him. ... He is meant to lead in this moment.”

A House aide said that Khanna hasn't made a decision on the race if Raskin doesn't run, but that his focus for now is on supporting the Maryland Democrat.

It’s not yet clear if additional Democrats would jump in the race.

Maloney became chair of the Oversight Committee in 2019 following the death of the late Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.). Lynch and Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.) both expressed interest at the time but ultimately dropped out. Speier is retiring at the end of the term.

A spokesperson for Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), who currently chairs an Oversight subcommittee, didn't immediately respond to a question about whether he would run. Another senior Democrat on the panel, Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), is retiring. D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton said on Wednesday that she won’t run for the post.

“While I will have the greatest seniority of any Democrat on [Transportation and Infrastructure] and the Committee on Oversight and Reform next Congress, I am running to be chair or ranking member of T&I next Congress,” Norton said in a statement.

Posted in Uncategorized

Morning Digest: Shock Democratic win in New York special is latest data point suggesting no red wave

Posted on by Daily Kos Elections

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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Leading Off

● NY-19 (special): Democrat Pat Ryan scored a huge special election upset for his party by defeating Republican Marc Molinaro 52-48 in New York’s 19th District, a swing seat in the Hudson Valley that Molinaro appeared poised to flip until polls closed on Tuesday. The win for Ryan, an Army veteran who serves as Ulster County executive and made abortion rights the centerpiece of his campaign, is the latest―and most dramatic― sign that the political landscape has shifted since the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade at the end of June.

Joe Biden carried this constituency 50-48 (the special was fought under the old congressional map), but until results started rolling in, both parties had behaved as though Molinaro was the strong favorite. Molinaro, who leads Dutchess County, defeated then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo by a wide 53-42 in the 19th in 2018 even as Cuomo was prevailing statewide in a 60-36 landslide. That strong local performance motivated national Republicans to try to recruit Molinaro to take on Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado in 2020, and while he declined that cycle, he eventually bit on a campaign last year.

But that anticipated Delgado-Molinaro bout was averted in the spring when the congressman resigned after Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed him as lieutenant governor―a career switch Republicans argued was motivated by Delgado’s wariness about his re-election prospects. The unexpected special election seemed to be good news indeed for Molinaro, who began with a months-long head start over his eventual Democratic rival at a time when a GOP wave looked imminent.

Ryan, who had lost the 2018 primary to Delgado, quickly closed much of the financial gap he faced by the end of June, but he still looked like the decided underdog. Even a late June internal poll for Ryan taken days after Roe was repealed showed him down 43-40. However, the same survey found that the Democrat could turn things around by hammering home Molinaro’s opposition to abortion rights. Ryan did just that in ad after ad, while Molinaro and the GOP continued to emphasize inflation and crime while ignoring reproductive rights.

Still, Democrats remained pessimistic about Ryan’s chances. While the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund spent a combined $1.8 million here, the DCCC limited its involvement to running some joint buys with their nominee. (We won’t know how much the committee spent until new fundraising reports are out in late September.) The progressive veterans group VoteVets, however, dropped $500,000 to help Ryan with an ad campaign declaring that the candidate, who served in Iraq, "sure didn't fight for our freedom abroad to see it taken away from women here at home.”

But it still didn’t seem to be enough: An early August DCCC poll found Molinaro leading 46-43—that same stubborn 3-point margin—while the Democratic firm Data for Progress released its own poll on Election Day giving him an even larger 53-45 edge. Tuesday’s upset, though, validated Ryan’s tight focus on abortion rights―a strategy fellow Democrats have deployed in other races across the country.

Both Ryan and Molinaro will be on the ballot again in November under the new court-drawn congressional map, but they won’t be facing each other this time. The new congressman is Team Blue’s nominee for the redrawn 18th District in the Lower Hudson Valley, turf that, at 53-45 Biden, is several points to the left of the constituency he just won. Ryan, who will represent just under 30% of the new district, will go up against Republican Assemblyman Colin Schmitt this time.

Molinaro himself will be competing in the new 19th District, a seat in the southeastern part of upstate New York that also would have gone for Biden by a larger spread, in this case 51-47. About 42% of the new 19th’s residents live in the district Molinaro just lost, but importantly, none of his home county of Dutchess is contained in the district. Molinaro’s opponent will be attorney Josh Riley, who claimed Team Blue’s nomination on Tuesday and will have the chance to deal the county executive his second straight defeat of the year in just a few months. 

election recaps

● Election Night: Below is a state-by-state look at where Tuesday’s other major contests stood as of early Wednesday, and you can also find our cheat-sheet here. Note that New York allows absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they’re received through Aug. 30, so some of the margins in the Empire State may change.

● FL-Gov (D): Rep. Charlie Crist defeated state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried 60-35 in the Democratic primary to take on GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis. Crist, who was elected governor in 2006 as a Republican and narrowly lost the 2014 general election to reclaim his prior post following his party switch, will be in for a tough fight against DeSantis, who begins the general election with a massive $132 million war chest.

● FL-01 (R): Rep. Matt Gaetz prevailed 70-24 against Mark Lombardo, a self-funder who ran ads reminding viewers that the incumbent remains under federal investigation for sex trafficking of a minor and other alleged offenses. Gaetz will likely be secure in November no matter what happens next in a Pensacola area constituency that Trump would have taken 65-33.

● FL-04 (R & D): State Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean defeated Navy veteran Erick Aguilar 68-26 in the GOP primary for an open Jacksonville area seat that Trump would have carried 53-46.

On the Democratic side, businesswoman LaShonda Holloway leads former state Sen. Tony Hill 50.2-49.8 with 58,000 votes counted, which the AP, which has not yet called the race, estimates is 99% of the total. Both of Team Blue’s candidates have struggled to bring in cash here, and neither national party has shown an obvious interest in it.  

● FL-07 (R): Army veteran Cory Mills beat state Rep. Anthony Sabatini 34-21 in the GOP primary to succeed Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a Democrat who decided to retire just before the GOP transfigured her suburban Orlando district from a 55-44 Biden seat to one Trump would have carried 52-47.

Mills notably ran commercials where he bragged that his company’s tear gas was used on what the on-screen text labeled as "Hillary Clinton protesters," "left wing protesters," "antifa rioters," "Black Lives Matter protesters," and "radical left protesters." The Republican nominee will face Karen Green, a state Democratic official who hasn’t raised much money so far.  

● FL-10 (D): Gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost won the 10-way primary to replace Democratic Senate nominee Val Demings by defeating state Sen. Randolph Bracy 35-25; two former House members, Alan Grayson and Corrine Brown, took 15% and 9%, respectively. Biden would have won this Orlando-based seat 65-33.

Frost, who is 25, will almost certainly be the youngest member of Congress come January. His primary win also represents a victory for the crypto-aligned Protect Our Future PAC, which spent about $1 million to aid him.

● FL-11 (R): Rep. Dan Webster held off far-right troll Laura Loomer only 51-44 in one of the biggest surprises of the night.

Loomer, a self-described "proud Islamophobe" who is banned on numerous social media, rideshare, and payment services, characteristically reacted to her near-miss by refusing to concede and spreading conspiracy theories about the primary. Trump would have carried this constituency in the western Orlando suburbs, which includes the gargantuan retirement community of The Villages, 55-44.

● FL-13 (R): 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna, who has the backing of Donald Trump and the Club for Growth, earned the GOP nod again by beating attorney Kevin Hayslett 44-34 after an expensive and nasty contest. The Democratic pick to succeed Rep. Charlie Crist is former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, who is defending a St. Petersburg-based district that the Republicans transformed from a 52-47 Biden seat to one Trump would have taken 53-46.

● FL-14 (R): Public relations firm owner James Judge trounced self-funding businessman Jerry Torres 53-30 just days after a court rejected a lawsuit that tried to keep Torres off the ballot. Judge will be the underdog against Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in this 59-40 Biden seat in Tampa and St. Petersburg.

● FL-15 (R & D): Former Secretary of State Laurel Lee outpaced state Sen. Kelli Stargel 41-28 in the Republican primary for a new district in the Tampa suburbs that was created because Florida won a new seat in reapportionment. This constituency would have backed Trump 51-48.

The Democratic nominee will be former local TV anchor Alan Cohn, who routed political consultant Gavin Brown 33-22. Cohn lost the 2020 contest for the previous version of the 15th to Republican Scott Franklin 55-45 as Trump was taking that seat by a similar 54-45 margin; Franklin is now seeking the new 18th.

● FL-20 (D): Freshman Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick decisively won her rematch with former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, whom she defeated by all of five votes in last year's crowded special election, 66-29. This constituency, which is located in the inland Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach areas, is safely blue at 76-23 Biden.

● FL-23 (D): Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz turned back Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen 61-21. Moskowitz should have no trouble succeeding retiring Rep. Ted Deutch in a Fort Lauderdale-based seat that Biden would have carried 56-43.

● FL-27 (D): State Sen. Annette Taddeo, who had the support of the DCCC and other national Democrats, beat Miami Commissioner Ken Russell 68-26 for the nod to take on freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. The GOP sought to protect the new incumbent by shifting her Miami-area seat to the right: While Biden carried the old 27th 51-48, Trump would have taken the new version 50-49.

● OK-Sen-B (R): Rep. Markwayne Mullin, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement for the runoff, bested former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon in a 65-35 runoff landslide.

Mullin will be the frontrunner against former Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn in the general election to succeed Sen. Jim Inhofe, whose resignation takes effect at the end of this Congress, in one of the reddest states in the nation. (That’s not entirely welcome news to Inhofe, who recently told Read Frontier, “Markwayne and I, we have problems.”) Mullin, who is a member of the Cherokee Nation, would be the first Native American to serve in the Senate since Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a Colorado Democrat turned Republican, retired in 2005.

● OK-02 (R): Former state Sen. Josh Brecheen edged out state Rep. Avery Frix 52-48 after a very expensive GOP runoff to succeed Markwayne Mullin in this dark red Eastern Oklahoma seat. A PAC affiliated with the Club for Growth spent over $3.4 million to promote Brecheen, who is a former Club fellow, while Frix had extensive support from his own outside group allies.

● NY-01 (R): Nick LaLota, who serves as chief of staff of the Suffolk County Legislature, beat cryptocurrency trader Michelle Bond 47-28 in the primary to replace Rep. Lee Zeldin, the GOP nominee for governor. The wealthy Bond and her allies (including a PAC that just happens to be funded by her boyfriend, crypto notable Ryan Salame), far outspent LaLota, but he had the support of the county’s Republican and Conservative parties.

LaLota will now go up against Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, who had the Democratic primary to herself. While Trump won the old 1st 51-47, Biden would have carried the new version of this eastern Long Island constituency by a narrow 49.4-49.2.

● NY-02 (R): Freshman Rep. Andrew Garbarino turned in an unexpectedly weak 54-38 victory over an unheralded Army and Navy veteran named Robert Cornicelli. The challenger eagerly embraced the Big Lie, and he used his limited resources to remind voters that Garbarino voted for a Jan. 6 commission. Garbarino also supported the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill as well as legislation protecting same-sex and interracial marriage, which may have further damaged his standing with the base.

Garbarino will now face a rematch against Democrat Jackie Gordon, an Army veteran he defeated 53-46 in 2020 as Trump was taking the old 2nd 51-47. The redrawn version of this seat, which is based in the south shore of Suffolk County, would have gone for Trump by a smaller 50-49 margin.

● NY-03 (D): DNC member Robert Zimmerman, a longtime party fundraiser who would be Long Island’s first gay member of Congress, beat Deputy Suffolk County Executive Jon Kaiman 36-26 in the primary to replace Rep. Tom Suozzi, who left to unsuccessfully run for governor in June. Another 20% went to Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan, who had Suozzi’s endorsement and benefited from spending by Protect Our Future PAC.

Zimmerman, who lost a race for Congress all the way back in 1982, will go up against 2020 Republican nominee George Santos. Suozzi last time held off Santos 56-43 as Biden was carrying the old 3rd 55-44; the new version of this seat, which is based in northern Nassau County, would have supported the president by a smaller 53-45 spread.

● NY-04 (D): Former Hempstead Supervisor Laura Gillen defeated Nassau County Legislator Carrié Solages 63-24 in the primary to replace retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice, who supported Gillen. The GOP is fielding Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito for a southern Nassau County district that Biden would have won 57-42.

● NY-10 (D): Daniel Goldman, a self-funder who served as House Democrats' lead counsel during Trump's first impeachment, beat Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou 26-24 in the busy primary for this safely blue seat in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn; Rep. Mondaire Jones, who currently represents the 17th District well to the north of the city in the Hudson Valley, took third with 18%.

● NY-11 (D): Former Rep. Max Rose will get his rematch against freshman GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis following his 75-21 primary victory over Army veteran Brittany Debarros. The court-drawn version of this seat, which retains all of Staten Island, would have supported Trump 53-46, while he prevailed 55-44 in the old boundaries; Malliotakis herself unseated Rose 53-47 last cycle.

● NY-12 (D): Rep. Jerry Nadler won the final incumbent vs. incumbent primary of the cycle by convincingly defeating fellow Rep. Carolyn Maloney 55-24 in a revamped safely blue seat that’s home to Manhattan’s Upper East Side and Upper West Side.

● NY-16 (D): Freshman Rep. Jamaal Bowman earned renomination in this loyally blue constituency by turning back Westchester County Legislator Vedat Gashi 57-23.

● NY-17 (D): Incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, who heads the DCCC, beat state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi 67-33 in this lower Hudson Valley seat. Maloney will go up against Republican Assemblyman Michael Lawler, who won his own primary 76-12, in a constituency Biden would have taken 54-44.

● NY-19 (D): Attorney Josh Riley outpaced businesswoman Jamie Cheney 64-36 in a southeastern upstate New York district. Riley will now go up against Republican Marc Molinaro, who lost Tuesday’s special election for the old 19th, for a redrawn seat that would have favored Biden 51-47.

● NY-22 (R & D): The GOP establishment got some unwelcome news when Navy veteran Brandon Williams defeated businessman Steve Wells 58-42 in the primary to succeed their fellow Republican, retiring Rep. John Katko, for a district located in the Syracuse and Utica areas. The Congressional Leadership Fund evidently believed that Wells was the better bet for this 53-45 Biden seat because the super PAC spent close to $1 million on an unsuccessful effort to get him across the finish line.

On the Democratic side, Navy veteran Francis Conole beat Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood 39-36. Conole far outspent the entire field, and he benefited from over $500,000 in aid from Protect Our Future PAC.

● NY-23 (special): Steuben County Republican Party Chair Joe Sempolinski held off Air Force veteran Max Della Pia only 53-47 in a special election to succeed GOP Rep. Tom Reed in a 55-43 Trump seat. Sempolinski isn’t running for a full term anywhere, while Della is competing for a full term in the revamped 23rd.

● NY-23 (R): State GOP chair Nick Langworthy scored a 52-48 upset over developer Carl Paladino, the proto-Trump who served as the 2010 Republican nominee for governor, in the contest to succeed departing GOP Rep. Chris Jacobs. Langworthy will take on Air Force veteran Max Della Pia in a seat in the Buffalo suburbs and southwestern upstate New York that would have gone for Trump 58-40.

Paladino, who used his vast wealth to far outspend Langworthy, has a long and ongoing history of bigoted outbursts. But that didn’t stop Rep. Elise Stefanik, who represents the neighboring 21st District and serves as the number-three Republican in the House, from backing Paladino, a move that one unnamed House Republican griped was “baffling” and “off-putting.” The gamble, though, very much didn’t pay off for Stefanik or Paladino.

● NY-24 (R): Rep. Claudia Tenney beat back attorney Mario Fratto by an underwhelming 54-40, though she should have no trouble in the general for a 57-40 Trump seat in the Finger Lakes region. Tenney had the support of Trump as well as a huge financial lead over Fratto, but she currently represents a mere 6% of this revamped district.

Senate

● MO-Sen: Independent John Wood announced Tuesday he was dropping out of the general election, a move that came after a super PAC affiliated with former GOP Sen. John Danforth spent $3.6 million on his behalf.

Wood sent out an email to his supporters saying he'd decided to run at a time when disgraced Gov. Eric Greitens was a serious contender for the Republican nomination, saying, "That would have been unacceptable, embarrassing, and dangerous for my party, my state, and my Country." Greitens, though, lost the Aug. 2 GOP primary to Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and Wood acknowledged, "It has become evident that there is not a realistic path to victory for me as an independent candidate."

● NH-Sen: State Senate President Chuck Morse has earned the backing of the NRA ahead of the Sept. 13 Republican primary to take on Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan. The organization, as we've written before, has dramatically diminished in recent years and it rarely spends much in primaries, but its stamp of approval can still give Republican office seekers a boost with conservatives.

● NV-Sen: Adam Laxalt is using his coordinated buy with the NRSC to air his very first TV spot since the mid-June primary, and he's far from the only Senate Republican candidate to only return to the airwaves months after winning the nomination. Pennsylvania's Mehmet Oz began running commercials in late July, while North Carolina's Ted Budd and Ohio's J.D. Vance, who also cleared their primaries in May, went up with general election spots this month; all three of these inaugural ads were also joint buys with the NRSC.

This Laxalt spot, reports NBC, has only $95,000 behind it, though that's still more than than the $65,000 he'd spent through Monday on general election digital and radio ads. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, by contrast, has dropped $6.5 million on advertising, while Democratic outside groups have outspent their GOP counterparts by a smaller $12.1 million to $10.9 million margin here.

Laxalt's commercial comes days after Cortez Masto portrayed the Republican as a spoiled outsider in a spot of her own that emulated the TV show "Succession." Laxalt tries to get his own narrative about his life across by telling the audience, "I was raised by a single mom with no college education. And as a kid, I didn't know who my father was." (His late father was New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici, who was married to another woman when Laxalt was conceived and had little presence in his life.) The candidate's wife also declares, "Everything he had to overcome helped make him a good man."  

Governors

● CA-Gov: UC Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times: Gavin Newsom (D-inc): 55, Brian Dahle (R): 31

● MS-Gov: Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who is one of the most prominent Democrats in this dark red state, didn't rule anything out when Mississippi Today asked about his interest in challenging Republican Gov. Tate Reeves next year. Presley, who is also up for re-election in 2023, instead talked about his current role, saying, "I am concentrating on trying to get internet to every household in the state, trying to keep utility rates affordable during this time of high inflation."

● NY-Gov: SurveyUSA for WNYT: Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 55, Lee Zeldin (R): 31 (June: 52-28 Hochul)

House

● MI-08: It begins: The independent expenditure arm of the DCCC has released its first TV ad of the November general election, beating their counterparts at the NRCC to the airwaves.

The DCCC's spot attacks former Homeland Security official Paul Junge, the Republican nominee in Michigan's 8th Congressional District, on the number one issue of the midterms: abortion. The commercial, however, avoids the word. Instead, a series of female narrators castigates Junge: "I thought I'd always have the right to make my own health care decisions," the voiceover says. "But if Paul Junge gets his way … I won't." Saying that Junge opposes abortion even in the case of rape or incest, the narration continues, "I couldn't imagine a pregnancy forced on me after something horrible like that. But thanks to Paul Junge, I have to."

Junge is challenging five-term Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee, who saw his district in the Flint and Tri-Cities areas take on some new turf and grow a bit redder in redistricting. It also changed numbers: Biden won Kildee's old 5th by a 51-47 margin, but the redrawn 8th would have backed the president just 50-48. This part of the state has also moved sharply to the right on the presidential level over the last decade—in 2012, Barack Obama won the 5th District by more than 20 points—which is why it's a prime target for Republicans this year.

Democrats know this as well, which is why they're stepping in to aid Kildee. We don't yet know how much the DCCC is spending in this initial foray, but we will soon: Any group that makes an independent expenditure on behalf of a federal candidate must file a report with the FEC detailing its spending within 48 hours—and from Oct. 20 onward, within 24 hours. Those filings are all made available on the FEC's website.

That site will get plenty of clicks, because from here on out, we can expect hundreds of millions of dollars more in independent expenditures on House races, from official party organizations like the DCCC and NRCC, massive super PACs like the Democrats' House Majority PAC and the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund, and a whole bevy of groups large and small. But with the parties themselves now going up on TV, we can consider this the beginning of the end of the midterms.

● TN-05: Democratic state Sen. Heidi Campbell has publicized an internal from FrederickPolls that gives her a 51-48 lead over her Republican rival, Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, in a newly-gerrymandered constituency that Democrats are very pessimistic about holding. Democratic incumbent Jim Cooper decided to retire here after the GOP legislature transmuted his seat from a 60-37 Biden district to a 54-43 Trump constituency by cracking the city of Nashville, and no major outside groups on either side have reserved any ad time here.  

Other races

● Los Angeles County, CA Sheriff: UC Berkeley, polling for the Los Angeles Times, finds former Long Beach Police Chief Robert Luna leading conservative Sheriff Alex Villanueva 31-27 in the November nonpartisan primary to serve as the top lawman for America's most populous county. This is the first survey we've seen since early June, when Villanueva outpaced Luna 31-26.

Villanueva made history in 2018 when he became the first Democrat to hold this office in 138 years, but while he still identifies as "​​a Democrat of the party of JFK and FDR," he's established a very different image in office. Villanueva instead has become a Fox News regular who, among many other things, has raged against the "woke left." The sheriff's department also has been at the center of numerous scandals, including allegations that deputies have organized themselves into violent gangs.  

Luna, for his part, changed his voter registration from Republican to no party preference in 2018 before becoming a Democrat two years later. The county Democratic Party has endorsed the former Long Beach police chief for the general election after declining to back anyone for the first round, and all five members of the Board of Supervisors are also in his corner; Luna also has the endorsement of Eric Strong, a progressive who took third with 16%. The challenger has faulted the incumbent for having "mismanaged" the department and argued that he'll "modernize" it.

Despite his second-place showing, however, UC Berkeley finds that Luna is a blank slate to most voters. Respondents give Luna a 31-11 favorable rating, but a 59% majority says they don't have an opinion of the challenger. Villanueva, by contrast, is underwater with a 30-39 score, though 31% still weren't sure how they feel about him.

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Live coverage: Aug. 23 primaries, runoffs, and specials in Florida, New York, and Oklahoma

Posted on by Daily Kos Elections

Three states are holding primaries tonight. Oklahoma voters already went to the polls on June 28, but the state is now hosting runoffs in primaries where no one took a majority of the vote. New York also held primaries that day for statewide races, the state Assembly, and local office, but because the courts redrew the maps for the U.S. House and state Senate, those nomination contests are only taking place now. The Empire State also will carry out special elections in the 19th and 23rd Congressional Districts.

Key races: Previews | Cheat-sheet ♦ Results: FL | NY | OK

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:32:44 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

As our primary night live coverage steams towards midnight on the East Coast, all eyes are now on the special election in NY-19. A number of pundits predicted a Republican win here, given the relative lack of spending on the Democratic side (the Dems might have been yielding to practicality: both candidates are prohibitive favorites in different districts come November) and a well-known name on the GOP side in former Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, who ran for Governor in 2018. Two polls, one by the DCCC and one by the left-leaning Data For Progress, both showed Molinaro leading Democrat Pat Ryan (the County Executive in Ulster County.

So, where are we?

  • With roughly 90% of the vote counted, in a mild upset, Democrat Pat Ryan has a 52-48 lead, a raw vote edge of about 4100 votes.
  • HOWEVER: Several counties appear to be still counting election day votes, which have strongly favored the Republican. In particular, Otsego County is sitting on an estimated 6000-7000 votes which will almost certainly lean to Molinaro.
  • BUT: The two leading Democratic districts have turned OUT, with Columbia County and Ulster County ranking first and third in turnout relative to the 2018 general election (Molinaro’s Dutchess County is second).
  • ALSO: There is an undetermined number of late-arriving mail ballots still waiting to arrive at county boards of elections, and they should favor Ryan.

So what does this all mean? It means this one is likely to be very close when all is said and done. And, in a Biden +2 district, to echo a refrain from past primary/special election coverage, this wouldn’t be happening in a “red wave” environment.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:37:09 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-19 Special: The GOP’s hopes just took a modest hit. Those election day votes (or at least a sizable percentage of them) have come in, and they only netted Marc Molinaro about 850 votes (this tranche of votes was about 8200 votes in total). Thus, Democrat Pat Ryan leads 51-49 overall, with a raw vote lead of just under 3300 votes.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:39:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-23 Special: Here is a (small) consolation for the Red team. Republican Joseph Sempolinski has pulled ahead of Democrat Max Della Pia by a 53-47 margin. It’s a small consolation, because this district favored Trump by a 55-43 margin in 2020.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:47:06 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-19 Special: ABC, NBC, and CBS have called the election for Democrat Pat Ryan. On paper, some will dismiss this as a Democrat holding onto a seat held by a Democratic Congressman (now-LG Antonio Delgado). But don’t let them fool you. This is a definite blow to the GOP, who threw quite a bit of money into this race, and does serious violence to the notion that Democrats are underdogs this year in districts with tenuous Biden leads (this was a Biden +2 district). And I will say it again for what feels like the 59th time: “red wave” years don’t usually look like this in the run-up to the election. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But a party which purportedly has all the momentum doesn’t cough up winnable races like this very often.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:55:54 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-23 (R): In the new (and heavily Republican) 23rd district left open by the retirement of Rep. Chris Jacobs, it looks like Carl Paladino’s attempt at a political second act may come up short. State party chair Nick Langworthy has now moved ahead of Paladino (who led most of the night) and holds a 52-48 lead over Paladino (a raw vote edge of about 2000 votes).

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 3:59:30 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-23 Special: Small consolation for Republicans, but the AP has made a call for Republican Joe Sempolinski, who will serve out the remainder of the term of Rep. Tom Reed, who resigned earlier in the year. Like NY-19, however, the margin is equal to or less than the 2020 presidential outcome. Sempolinski currently leads by six points in a 55-43 Trump district.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:02:18 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-24 (R): Missed this one in the NY-19 hullaballoo, but the AP did call this primary for incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney, who defeated Mario Fratto by a distinctly unimpressive 54-40 margin.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:11:55 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-19 Special: And there it is. The AP calls this special election for Democrat Pat Ryan. The GOP will spin tonight as status quo, with a 1-1 split. But, again, they spent money on this race with their best possible candidate. And they lost. What’s more: this district (at Biden +2) is actually not as amenable to the GOP as the NY-19 that Molinaro will try to win in November (which is Biden +4). Ryan, meanwhile, will be at least a modest favorite in the new NY-18, which is 53-45 Biden. A modest upset (the only two publicly released polls had Molinaro ahead), and a key boost to Democrats as they head towards November.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:15:32 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-03 (D): Others have undoubtedly exhausted every Bob Dylan reference available, but the AP has indeed called this Long Island district for DNC member Robert Zimmerman. Zimmerman will be a slight betting favorite to hold NY-03, which was left open by Tom Suozzi’s quixotic bid for Governor. He faces Robert Santos, who lost to Suozzi by double digits in 2020 in a marginally more Democratic district (NY-03 moved about three points in the direction of the GOP in redistricting).

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:24:50 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

So, we have three races that we’ve been tracking tonight that have yet to be called by AP:

  • NY-10 (D): This was effectively an open seat that Rep. Mondaire Jones ran in rather than dealing with fellow Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in a race that would probably have favored Maloney. Jones’ gamble, alas, was all for naught, as he is a distant third with 18% of the vote. The current leader is former Trump impeachment counsel Daniel Goldman, with 26% of the vote. State assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou is a close second with 24%, roughly 1300 votes behind in the raw vote. Late mail votes will almost certainly decide this one.
  • NY-22 (D): This one has moved very little as the night has wore on, with 2020 candidate Francis Conole leading fellow military veteran Sarah Hood by about four points (currently 40-36). The raw vote margin is just under 1100 votes and the total vote count is still a bit light, which is undoubtedly driving the reluctance of AP to call this one.
  • NY-23 (R): This one, unlike the first two, feels like it is done and is just waiting for AP to declare the decedent truly dead and gone. State Party Chair Nick Langworthy has a 52-48 lead over businessman Carl Paladino, last seen running a losing campaign for Governor a dozen years ago. The raw vote margin is 2000 votes, and with nearly 50,000 votes in the can, it’s pretty hard to see where Paladino makes a comeback.
Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 4:30:00 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

With that update, and the assumption that the two Democratic races are a bit unlikely to be called tonight, we will call it a night here at DK Elections. We have one more primary night left to share together: on September 13th, when the voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island have their say. After that, it’s on to November! Thanks for following along on a profoundly interesting night for elections junkies. And please check back tomorrow for more updates and analysis on all of tonight’s headlines. Have a great night!

GOP disarray: Trump blasts Mitch, Bowers calls out GOP ‘fascism,’ Colorado senator switches to Dems

Posted on by Charles Jay

While Joe Biden and fellow Democrats are getting things done, the GOP is increasingly in disarray as it embraces the MAGAverse and the cult of Trump. In fact, so much is going on that it might be time for periodic roundups of the internal fissures within the GOP.

Democrats still face an uphill battle in the November midterms, but the tide is turning in our favor. So let’s start with the dust-up between Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Last week, McConnell conceded that the House has a better chance of flipping than the Senate. During a stop in Kentucky, McConnell told reporters:

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell said. “Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,” he added, without mentioning any names.

But it was clear that he was referring to Trump-backed candidates in key swing states who are all trailing their Democratic opponents in recent polls—Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Herschel Walker in Georgia, and Blake Masters in Arizona. McConnell is backing pro-impeachment incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski, while Trump is supporting her 2020 election denier rival, Kelly Tshibaka, in Alaska’s Senate race.  

That didn’t sit well with the master of the MAGAverse. Over the weekend, Trump posted this on his Truth Social platform:

Why do Republican Senators allow a broken down hack politician, Mitch McConnell, to openly disparage hard working Republican candidates for the United States Senate. This is such an affront to honor and to leadership. He should spend more time (and money!) helping them get elected, and less time helping his crazy wife and family get rich on China!

Elaine Chao, McConnell’s wife, served as secretary of Transportation during Trump’s four-year term, but resigned shortly after the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol. 

Immediately after the insurrection, McConnell took to the Senate floor to say that Tump is “practically and morally responsible for provoking the events” of Jan. 6. However, he spinelessly voted to acquit Trump at his second impeachment trial a few weeks later.

As for Chao, whose family emigrated to the U.S. from Taiwan when she was a child, there have been questions raised as to whether she aided her father’s shipping company through her government positions. The U.S. Transportation Department's Inspector General's office investigated Chao for potential violations of ethics rules and misuse of her position, and published its findings in March. Chao's father, James S.C. Chao, founded a shipping company, now called the Foremost Group, which her sister Angela now heads. The firm does significant business in China.

McConnell’s criticism of Trump was relatively mild compared with what Arizona’s ousted House Speaker Rusty Bowers had to say about Trump and his party in an extraordinary interview with The Guardian. Bowers, a staunch conservative, testified in a public hearing of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection about the pressure he faced to overturn Arizona’s presidential election result that gave Joe Biden a narrow win.

Earlier this month, Trump got his revenge when Bowers lost a Republican primary race to challenger David Farnsworth, who claimed that the 2020 election had been satanically snatched from Trump by the “devil himself.”

Bowers detailed to The Guardian how Trump, Rudy Giuliani, and John Eastman pressured him to have the state legislature use an arcane Arizona law to switch the election outcome to Trump. He resisted the bullying. ”The thought that if you don’t do what we like, then we will just get rid of you and march on and do it ourselves—that to me is fascism,” Bowers said.

With the primary loss behind him, Bowers, who is a Mormon, felt unhindered in letting loose on Trump and the GOP. “The constitution is hanging by a thread,” he told The Guardian. “The funny thing is, I always thought it would be the other guys. And it’s my side. That just rips at my heart: that we would be the people who would surrender the constitution in order to win an election. That just blows my mind.”

Bowers said he remains optimistic that the GOP will one day find its way back on to the rails, but said that things are likely to get much worse before they get better. He said the Arizona GOP seems to be lost at the moment. “They’ve invented a new way. It’s a party that doesn’t have any thought. It’s all emotional, it’s all revenge. It’s all anger. That’s all it is,” Bowers said.

And in Colorado, one GOP state senator went even further when he announced Monday that he couldn’t remain a Republican any longer and was defecting to the Democrats. State Sen. Kevin Priola wrote in a two-page letter that there is “too much at stake right now for Republicans to be in charge.” He added: “Simply put, we need Democrats in charge.”

#coleg #copolitics #Elections2022 #democracy #Republican #DemocratsDeliver #colorado pic.twitter.com/eCiKONCAsi

— Kevin Priola 🇺🇸 XLVIII (@KevinPriola) August 22, 2022

Priola cited two main reasons for switching parties: Many Republicans peddling false claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, and the party’s efforts to block legislation that would fight climate change even as Coloradans endure worsening wildfires and drought.

Priola has served in the Colorado legislature as a Republican since 2009, first as a representative and then, starting in 2017, as a senator. Term limits bar him from seeking reelection in 2024. His defection increases the Democratic state Senate majority ahead of the November elections.

“I haven’t changed much in 30 years; but my party has,” Priola wrote. “Coloradans cannot afford for their leaders to give credence to election conspiracies and climate denialism,” he wrote, adding: “Our planet and our democracy depend on it.”

Live coverage: Aug. 23 primaries, runoffs, and specials in Florida, New York, and Oklahoma

Posted on by Daily Kos Elections

Three states are holding primaries tonight. Oklahoma voters already went to the polls on June 28, but the state is now hosting runoffs in primaries where no one took a majority of the vote. New York also held primaries that day for statewide races, the state Assembly, and local office, but because the courts redrew the maps for the U.S. House and state Senate, those nomination contests are only taking place now. The Empire State also will carry out special elections in the 19th and 23rd Congressional Districts.

Key races: Previews | Cheat-sheet ♦ Results: FL | NY | OK

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:35:20 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

If you’re just checking in, welcome to one of the final nights of the 2022 primary season! Florida, as always, is counting with astounding pace, and we have updates from all over the Sunshine State. Oklahoma has just begun their counting, and New York is less than an hour away from their polls closing. Here is what has already happened on this very consequential election night:

  • In a primary that ultimately wound up being a bit of a rout, Congressman (and former Governor) Charlie Crist scored an easy win over state Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried (60-35) in the Democratic primary for FL-Gov.
  • In a primary that wound up being very much not a rout, right-wing extremist Laura Loomer, last seen getting dumped by 20 points in a House bid in 2020, wound up nearly defeating incumbent Rep. Dan Webster in the GOP primary in FL-11. With most of the vote tallied, Webster has hung on with a 51-44 win over Loomer.
  • In the Panhandle (FL-01), notorious incumbent Rep. Matt Gaetz was actually primaried to his right. Granted, there isn’t much real estate over there, which is probably why he has a considerable edge over Mark Lombardo (65-29).
  • In FL-10, the Orlando-area seat being vacated by Democratic Senate nominee Val Demings (who easily won her Senate primary over nominal opposition), gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost has a 34-25 lead over state Senator Randolph Bracy. Two former Democratic House members who have a certain level of notoriety (or infamy, some would say) are trailing well behind: Alan Grayson (16%) and Corinne Brown (10%).
  • Finally a few competitive primaries have already been decided, including FL-04 (R) in favor of state Senator Aaron Bean, FL-20 (D) in favor of incumbent Rep. Shiela Cherfilus-McCormick, and FL-23 (D) in favor of Broward County commissioner Jared Moskowitz.
Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:36:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

OK-Sen (R): Welp. That didn’t take long. Shortly after we hit the 10% reporting threshold, the AP called the Senate runoff for Republican Rep. Markwayne Mullin, who has a double-digit lead over T.W. Shannon.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:40:21 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Other recent AP calls that have just come in:

  • FL-15 (R): The AP calls for Trump endorsee and former Sec. of State Laurel Lee.
  • FL-01 (R): No shocker here, but Rep. Matt Gaetz is the projected winner after being primaried by wealthy opponent Mark Lombardo.
  • FL-07 (R): Veteran Cory Mills has saved us from Congressman Anthony Sabbatini (not that he is anyone’s idea of a moderate, so this is a small victory, at best). Mills has been declared the winner in this multi-candidate field, besting Sabbatini by about 15 points. This district now leans to the GOP after their aggressive gerrymandering of the region.
  • FL-13 (R): Anna Luna, the 2020 nominee in this district, has been declared the winner here, holding off several challengers.
Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:43:08 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-27 (D): Maybe the person at the AP decision desk here is enjoying a power nap, or something, because this one seems very much over and yet we lack a call here. State Sen. Annette Taddeo has a mammoth 69-26 lead over Ken Russell here. The winner takes on Republican freshman Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in this very swingy (Trump 50-49) Miami-area district

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:53:16 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

OK-Sen: Quick bit of clarification, because the results widget is a bit deceiving. Remember that there are TWO Senate races in Oklahoma. The GOP primary tonight (won earlier by Rep. Markwayne Mullin) is the special election to replace Sen. Jim Inhofe, who is resigning as of January, 2023. Mullin will now face former Oklahoma City Rep. Kendra Horn in what is easily the more competitive of the two races (though it’d be a stretch to call either truly competitive, because Oklahoma).

Meanwhile, if you look at the results page, it has a Democrat named Madison Horn winning the Democratic runoff tonight. But that isn’t to face Mullin, that is to face Sen. Jim Lankford, who is seeking his normal re-election in November, as well.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:54:51 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-27 (D): The AP makes their call in favor of state Senator Annette Taddeo, who will now take on freshman GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in one of the more anticipated R-held House races in November.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 12:59:59 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-15 (D): The AP makes a call here for 2020 nominee Alan Cohn, who will face Republican Laurel Lee in November in this 51-48 Trump district.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:04:01 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-10 (D): And...wow. Props to Florida (a phrase you won’t see me use often). They managed to get every competitive race counted to the point of projection before New York could even hit their poll closing time (which happened just now). The AP calls this one for gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost, who at 25 will be the youngest member of Congress should he win in November. He will be strongly favored over Republican Calvin Wimbish in this 65-33 Biden seat.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:14:40 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-10 (D): We are well over the threshold in this open-seat and hotly-contested Democratic primary. Rep. Mondaire Jones is the nominal incumbent, but he moved a considerable distance to run here and he is a distant third as we speak. Right now, Trump impeachment counsel Daniel Goldman has a 27-22 lead over assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou. Jones is third with 18%.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:17:30 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

NY-12 (D): This incumbent-on-incumbent primary between two longtime Democratic veterans of the House is not all that close in the early counting. Rep. Jerry Nadler holds a 56-27 lead over Rep. Carolyn Maloney. Young attorney Suraj Patel, who released a late poll showing him in contention, is a distant third at 16%.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:21:47 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

FL-11 (R): I am not an oddsmaker but this had to be the easiest bet of the evening: 

“I’M NOT CONCEDING!” Laura Loomer attacks the Republican Party and alleges voter fraud after losing GOP primary to incumbent Florida congressman Daniel Webster. #news6 pic.twitter.com/qpuhJUIpyJ

— Mike DeForest (@DeForestNews6) August 24, 2022

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:29:54 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-03 (D): We’ve hit the reporting threshold in the open seat in the light-blue 3rd district on Long Island, where the times they are a-changing away from Tom Suozzi. DNC member Robert Zimmerman is currently knockin’ on the House’s door; he’s leading Jon Kaiman 43-22, with 15% reporting.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:33:27 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-23 (R): We’ve also hit the threshold in the GOP primary in the dark-red 23rd district in upstate New York, where unfortunately the objectionable Carl Paladino is leading Nick Longworthy 60-40 with 15% reporting. This seat is open with the abrupt retirement of freshman Chris Jacobs.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:37:07 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-19 (special): You may have noticed that in the special election for the last few months of service in the very swingy 19th district (left vacant by Antonio Delgado’s promotion to Lt. Governor), the Democrat, Pat Ryan has a pretty commanding lead, 70-30, with 24% reporting! Don’t get too attached to this result, which would be a stunning upset if true. It looks like most of the votes reported so far are from Ulster County, which is Pat Ryan’s home turf. Republican Marc Molinaro would reasonably be expected to pull back into the lead later, though Ryan still seems well positioned to make this race pretty close in the end.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:40:22 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-16 (D): Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman faced a credible primary challenge from several suburban county legislators, after his district’s center of gravity shifted quite a bit to the north. Bowman is still holding on pretty easily, though leading Vedat Gashi 63-21 with 20% reporting.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:42:03 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-12 (D): Wow, this was very fast (by anyone’s standards, let alone New York’s)! The AP has already called the incumbent-on-incumbent battle royale in favor of Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler, who wound up winning pretty easily over colleague Carolyn Maloney. With 49% reporting, it’s Nadler at 56, Maloney at 25, and Suraj Patel at 18.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:47:03 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-04 (D): One more open seat in a light blue Long Island district to mention, this time the 4th district, where Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice surprisingly retired. This one didn’t turn out to be too competitive, though, with former Hempstead supervisor Laura Gillen leading county legislator Carrie Solages 68-17 with 17% reporting in the Democratic primary.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:50:17 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-10 (D): Meanwhile, in the 10th district in Manhattan (open because Reps. Nadler and Maloney both insisted on taking the 12th), we’ve got a super close race, still not decided even with 99% reporting. Former federal prosecutor Daniel Goldman currently leads state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou 25.2 to 24.2 (or 14,142 votes to 13,554 if you prefer.) They’re followed by Rep. Mondaire Jones at 18%, who has to be kicking himself for making the trek down to the city instead of facing off against Democratic colleague Sean Patrick Maloney in the suburbs.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:53:00 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

NY-17 (D): Speaking of which, Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s primary challenge from state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (whose own district overlaps none of the 17th), which came about after Maloney bumped Mondaire Jones out of this turf, didn’t turn out to be too eventful. The AP has called this race for Maloney, who currently leads Biaggi 66-34 with 41% reporting.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:55:42 AM +00:00 · David Jarman

OK-02 (R): Here’s the last loose end from the Sooner State; the AP has called the Republican runoff for this open seat in favor of ex-state Sen. Josh Brecheen, who defeats state Rep. Avery Frix, and will undoubtedly be headed to the House in this dark red district.

Wednesday, Aug 24, 2022 · 1:59:24 AM +00:00 · David Nir

The liveblog continues here.

Primary preview: Two of the nation’s biggest states are nominating candidates on Tuesday

Posted on by Daily Kos Elections

Tuesday brings us our biggest election night until November as three states go to the polls to select their nominees for November, though only Florida is holding its first (and only) primary of the year.

Oklahoma voters already went to the polls on June 28, but the state is now hosting runoffs in primaries where no one took a majority of the vote. New York also held primaries that day for statewide races, the state Assembly, and local office, but because the courts redrew the maps for the U.S. House and state Senate, those nomination contests are only taking place now. The Empire State also will carry out special elections in the 19th and 23rd Congressional Districts.

Below you'll find our guide to all of the top contests, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

And of course, because this is a redistricting year, every state on the docket has a brand-new congressional map. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Florida, New York, and Oklahoma.

Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall, except for the special elections in New York’s 19th and 23rd, ​​which are being conducted using the existing boundaries. (The regularly scheduled primaries for both seats are taking place simultaneously, but under the new map.) And if you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.

Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET when polls close in most of Florida, a state that is typically one of the fastest to count votes. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for the remaining primaries of the year.

Florida

Polls close at 7 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern time zone, where most Floridians live. Polls close an hour later in the remainder of the state.  

● FL-Gov (D) (51-48 Trump): Rep. Charlie Crist and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried are the chief Democratic contenders to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will enter the general election with a massive $135 million war chest.

Crist, who was elected governor in 2006 as a Republican and narrowly lost the 2014 general election to reclaim his prior post following his party switch, has outspent Fried and earned endorsements from several prominent labor groups. Fried, though, has used the last weeks of the campaign to highlight her opponent’s political past, including Crist's appointment of an anti-abortion judge to the state’s highest court. Almost every poll, including a Fried internal from early August, has shown Crist ahead, though an independent survey from the final days put Fried up 47-43.

● FL-01 (R) (65-33 Trump): Rep. Matt Gaetz, the far-right icon who remains under federal investigation for sex trafficking of a minor and other alleged offenses, faces a challenge from self-funder Mark Lombardo. The other Republican candidate in the running is Greg Merk, who took 9% in Gaetz’s uncompetitive 2020 primary. This constituency in the Pensacola area barely changed under the new map.

Lombardo has used his personal wealth to run an ad blitz highlighting Gaetz’s travails; one ad during the final week even speculated, without evidence, that Gaetz might be the government informant who prompted the FBI's raid of Mar-a-Lago. The congressman, though, has outspent Lombardo, whom he’s accused of being a “liberal.”

● FL-04 (R) (53-46 Trump): Three Republicans are campaigning for an open seat that includes part of Jacksonville and its western suburbs, though state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean very much looks like the frontrunner.

Bean, who has the backing of Sen. Marco Rubio and Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, posted a huge 59-16 lead over Navy veteran Erick Aguilar in an independent poll from early August, with underfunded rival Jon Chuba at 6%. That survey was taken weeks after Aguilar was thrown off the GOP fundraising platform WinRed for sending out deceptive appeals that appeared to be from better-known Republicans. Former state Sen. Tony Hill and businesswoman LaShonda Holloway are campaigning on the Democratic side, but both have struggled to bring in cash.

● FL-07 (R) (52-47 Trump): Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy announced her retirement months before Republicans transformed her suburban Orlando district from a 55-44 Biden constituency to one that supported Trump by 5 points, and eight Republicans are in the running to replace her. Four Democrats are also on the ballot, but none of them have raised much money.

The only sitting elected official in the race is state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, a far-right zealot who has a terrible relationship with his chamber's leadership. Sabatini has been on the receiving end of heavy spending from outside groups that fault him for voting against Gov. Ron DeSantis’ budget and for having once been a registered Democrat.

The other two candidates who have brought in serious sums are Army veteran Cory Mills and Navy veteran Brady Duke, who have each run ads implicitly threatening violence against liberals. The field also includes former DeBary City Commissioner Erika Benfield, who lost a competitive state House primary in 2020; former Orange County Commissioner Ted Edwards, who is campaigning as a moderate; former congressional staffer Rusty Roberts; and businessman Scott Sturgill, who lost the 2018 primary for the old 7th.

● FL-10 (D) (65-33 Biden): Ten Democrats are campaigning to succeed Rep. Val Demings, who is running for the Senate, in this safely blue Orlando constituency, including two former House members who jumped in just before filing closed in June.

One of them is former 9th District Rep. Alan Grayson, a bombastic frequent candidate who decided to end his little-noticed Senate bid to run here. The other relatively recent arrival is former 5th District Rep. Corrine Brown, whose launch came about a month after she accepted a deal with federal prosecutors that saw her plead guilty to tax fraud. Brown represented part of the Orlando area during her tenure from 1993 to 2017 even though her longtime Jacksonville base is located well to the north, but she’s raised little for her comeback campaign.

The top fundraiser by far is gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost, who has also benefited from about $1 million in support from the crypto-aligned Protect Our Future PAC. State Sen. Randolph Bracy, meanwhile, is the one current elected official in the race. The field also features pastor Terence Gray and five others. A last-minute poll from the Democratic firm Data for Progress found Frost leading Bracy 34-18, with Grayson at 14% and Brown at 6%; all others were in the low single digits and 15% were undecided.

● FL-11 (R) (55-44 Trump): Six-term Rep. Dan Webster faces Republican primary opposition from far-right activist Laura Loomer, a self-described "proud Islamophobe" who has been banned from numerous social media, rideshare, and payment services for spreading bigotry. One other little-known Republican is also competing here.

Webster only represents 35% of this new constituency in the western Orlando suburbs, which includes the gargantuan retirement community of The Villages. Still, he’s a far more familiar presence here than Loomer, who ran a high-profile but doomed 2020 bid against Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel in South Florida.

● FL-13 (R) (53-46 Trump): Five Republicans are competing to replace Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist in a St. Petersburg-based district the GOP aggressively gerrymandered. The winner will go up against former Department of Defense official Eric Lynn, who is the one Democrat in the running.

The early GOP frontrunner was 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna, who sports endorsements from Trump and the Club for Growth. Her two main opponents are Amanda Makki, a former lobbyist who Luna beat in last cycle’s primary, and attorney Kevin Hayslett. Hayslett and his allies have run an aggressive campaign against Luna, an effort that includes a clip of her saying “I always agreed with President Obama's immigration policies.” Luna and the Club in turn have gone after Hayslett for criticizing Trump in 2016. A recent independent poll shows Luna leading Hayslett 37-34, with Makki at 14%.  

● FL-15 (R & D) (51-48 Trump): Each party has five candidates running for a brand-new seat in the Tampa suburbs, created because Florida won a new seat in reapportionment. On the GOP side, the two elected officials in the running are state Sen. Kelli Stargel, who is an ardent social conservative, and state Rep. Jackie Toledo, who has prevailed on competitive turf.

Another notable contender is former Secretary of State Laurel Lee, who recently resigned to run and was previously elected as a local judge before DeSantis chose her as Florida's top elections administration official. Rounding out the field are retired Navy Capt. Mac McGovern and Demetrius Grimes, a fellow Navy veteran who lost the 2018 Democratic primary for the old 26th District in South Florida. Outside groups promoting both Stargel and Lee have also been spending plenty of money here, with Stargel’s allies launching a late attack on Lee for not performing a “forensic audit of the 2020 election.”

For the Democrats, the most familiar name is probably Alan Cohn, a former local TV anchor who lost the 2020 general election to Republican Scott Franklin in the previous version of the 15th. (Franklin is seeking the new 18th.) Comedian Eddie Geller, though, has brought in more money for his campaign, while the other three contenders have barely raised anything.

● FL-20 (D) (76-23 Biden): Freshman Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick faces a Democratic primary rematch against former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, whom she beat by all of five votes in last year's crowded special election. State Rep. Anika Omphroy is also in, but she hasn’t reported raising anything. About three-quarters of this constituency, which is located in the inland Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach areas, is the same turf that Cherfilus-McCormick and Holness competed for last year.

Cherfilus-McCormick and Holness have attacked one another’s ethics, though they haven’t differed much on policy. The new incumbent has decisively outraised her main opponent, and the SEIU has endorsed her this time after pulling for Holness in the special.

● FL-23 (D) (56-43 Biden): Rep. Ted Deutch is retiring from a Fort Lauderdale-based seat that's very similar to the 22nd District he currently serves, and six fellow Democrats are on the ballot to succeed him.

The frontrunner from the beginning has been Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz, a well-connected former state representative who later served in Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration as director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Moskowitz, who has raised considerably more money than the rest of the field, has endorsements from several unions, and he’s also received help from two crypto-aligned PACs. His main rival appears to be Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen, who has tried to tie Moskowitz to the ultra-conservative governor.

● FL-27 (D) (50-49 Trump): Republican mapmakers did what they could to insulate freshman GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar by shifting her Miami-area seat to the right, but two local Democratic elected officials are still betting she’s beatable. National Democrats, including the DCCC, have consolidated behind state Sen. Annette Taddeo, who dropped out of the governor's race in June to run here. Her main intraparty rival is Miami Commissioner Ken Russell, who abandoned his own long-shot Senate bid, while an underfunded activist named Angel Montalvo rounds out the field.

Oklahoma

Polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time.

● OK-Sen-B (R) (65-32 Trump): Rep. Markwayne Mullin lapped former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon 44-18 in the first round of the special election primary to succeed Sen. Jim Inhofe, whose resignation takes effect at the end of this Congress, and he looks well-positioned for the runoff. Mullin earned Trump’s endorsement in July, while Gov. Kevin Stitt backed him in the final week of the contest. Recent polls have given Mullin double-digit leads.

● OK-02 (R) (76-22 Trump): State Rep. Avery Frix edged out former state Sen. Josh Brecheen 15-14 in an enormous 14-person primary to replace Markwayne Mullin in Eastern Oklahoma's 2nd District, and neither man has a clear edge going into the second round. A PAC affiliated with the Club for Growth has spent heavily to promote Brecheen, who is a former Club fellow, while Frix has support from his own allies. Brecheen also has the backing of four defeated primary candidates who notched a combined 30%.

New York

Polls close at 9 PM ET. Below we lead with New York's two special elections, followed by Tuesday's primaries.

● NY-19 (special) (50-48 Biden): This swing seat in the Hudson Valley unexpectedly became vacant in the spring when Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado as lieutenant governor, and each party has nominated a different county executive to run here.

The Democrats are fielding Pat Ryan, an Army veteran who was elected to lead Ulster County after losing the 2018 primary to Delgado, while Republicans are going with Marc Molinaro of Dutchess County, who was the GOP's 2018 candidate for governor. Though Molinaro lost that race to then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a 60-36 landslide, he carried the 19th by a wide 53-42. (Ulster, by the way, makes up a quarter of the old 19th, while Dutchess comprises 17% of the district.)

Ryan and his allies have made abortion rights the centerpiece of their campaign; the GOP, in contrast, has focused on tying him to the Biden administration and portraying Ryan as weak on public safety issues. National Republicans have spent far more money here than their Democratic counterparts, and even a recent DCCC internal found Molinaro ahead 46-43.

The two rivals could end up serving together in a few months, as Ryan is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for the new 18th District while Molinaro faces no intraparty opposition in the redrawn 19th.

● NY-23 (special) (55-43 Trump): A special election is also taking place to succeed Republican Rep. Tom Reed, who resigned to join a lobbying firm a year after he was accused of sexual misconduct, but there it’s attracted little attention. The Republicans have picked Steuben County Party Chair Joe Sempolinski, who isn’t running for a full term anywhere. Democrats, meanwhile, have turned to Air Force veteran Max Della Pia, who is competing for a full term in the revamped 23rd District.

● NY-01 (R) (49.4-49.2 Biden): Three Republicans are facing off to succeed Rep. Lee Zeldin, who is the GOP’s nominee for governor, in an eastern Long Island constituency that moved a few points to the left under the new court-drawn congressional map. For months it looked like this would be an easy win for Nick LaLota, who serves as chief of staff of the Suffolk County Legislature and has the backing of the county’s Republican and conservative parties, but that’s no longer the case.

LaLota’s main adversary is cryptocurrency trader Michelle Bond, who has used her personal wealth to decisively outspend him. Bond has also gotten $1 million in outside help from several groups, including a PAC that just happens to be funded by her boyfriend, crypto notable Ryan Salame. LaLota has pushed back and run ads calling Bond as a “liberal D.C. lobbyist” who lives in a Beltway-area mansion. The third candidate is government relations firm executive Anthony Figliola, though he's attracted little money or attention.

The winner will go up against Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming, who has the Democratic primary to herself.

● NY-03 (D) (53-45 Biden): Five fellow Democrats are competing in a pricey battle to succeed Rep. Tom Suozzi, who gave up this northern Nassau County seat to campaign in the primary against Gov. Kathy Hochul only to lose badly, both statewide and at home. The GOP is running 2020 nominee George Santos, whom Suozzi beat 56-43 last time as Biden was carrying the old 3rd 55-44.

Two contenders have considerably more resources than the rest of the field. Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan, who is campaigning as a moderate, has Suozzi’s endorsement, and he’s gotten some help from Protect Our Future PAC. The other well-funded candidate is DNC member Robert Zimmerman, a longtime party fundraiser who would be Long Island’s first gay member of Congress.

The field also includes two people who have lost past Democratic primaries to Suozzi. One is Jon Kaiman, a deputy Suffolk County executive who competed in the 2016 open-seat contest and has the support of the influential 32BJ SEIU building workers union. The other familiar name is Melanie D'Arrigo, who challenged the congressman from the left last cycle and lost 66-26. D'Arrigo has the backing of the Working Families Party, which has long been a force in New York progressive politics, but she’s struggled to bring in cash. The final candidate is marketing consultant Reema Rasool, who has raised very little.

● NY-04 (D) (57-42 Biden): Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice unexpectedly decided to retire after four terms, and there’s a five-way Democratic primary to replace her in this southern Nassau County district. Team Blue’s nominee will go up against Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D'Esposito, who is the only Republican running here.

Rice and 32BJ SEIU are backing Laura Gillen, who was elected as Hempstead's first Democratic supervisor in more than a century in 2017 but lost reelection two years later. The only other well-funded contender is Keith Corbett, who is arguing that his election as mayor of the small and traditionally Republican village of Malverne proves his bipartisan appeal; one of Corbett’s top allies is Jay Jacobs, the controversial head of the state and county parties. Nassau County Legislator Carrié Solages and two other candidates are also in, but none of them have raised much.

● NY-10 (D) (85-15 Biden): Democrats have an expensive and closely watched contest for the dramatically revamped 10th District based in Lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn. Rep. Mondaire Jones, who currently represents the 17th District well to the north of the city in the Hudson Valley, decided to run here in order to avoid a primary against DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, but he faces a difficult battle nonetheless.

Among the many other major contenders here is former federal prosecutor Dan Goldman, who served as House Democrats' lead counsel during Donald Trump's first impeachment. Goldman, who is an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, has pumped $4 million of his own money into his campaign, and he’s dominated the airwaves during the campaign; he also earned an endorsement in the final weeks from The New York Times, which is an influential presence in this district. But Jones, who is the only other candidate who has been able to advertise on TV, has hit his rival over an interview in which Goldman initially seemed open to curtailing abortion rights before reversing himself.

The field also includes New York City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, who has several notable endorsements of her own. Rivera has the backing of 7th District Rep. Nydia Velazquez, who represents just under half of this new constituency, and the health care workers union 1199 SEIU, which is one of the most powerful labor organizations in city politics. Also in the running are Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou, who has the Working Families Party on her side; fellow Assemblywoman Jo Anne Simon; and Elizabeth Holtzman, who is trying to return to the House after what would be a record 42-year gap.

There have been a number of polls of the race, but they've generally shown a very jumbled picture, with no candidate breaking out of the teens.

● NY-12 (D) (85-14 Biden): New York's new congressional boundaries have placed Manhattan’s Upper East Side and Upper West Side in the same district for the first time since World War I and resulted in a face-off between two 30-year incumbents, Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler. The primary also includes attorney Suraj Patel, who challenged Maloney in 2018 and 2020, and one little-known contender.

Maloney's existing 12th District in the Upper East Side makes up about 60% of this new seat, while Nadler's 10th in the Upper West Side forms another 40%. However, while Nadler was safe at home before redistricting upended the map, Maloney only held off Patel 43-39 in their last bout.

The candidates haven’t differed on any major policy issues, but Maloney has argued that the end of Roe v. Wade makes it more important than ever to have a woman in office. Nadler, meanwhile, has highlighted how he’s New York’s only remaining Jewish representative, while Patel has campaigned as a generational change agent.

An early August poll for a pro-Patel group had Nadler edging out Maloney 29-27, with Patel at 20%. After that survey was taken, though, Nadler earned endorsements from both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and The New York Times, which joined 1199 SEIU in his corner.

● NY-16 (D) (71-28 Biden): Rep. Jamaal Bowman was elected to represent southern Westchester County two years ago after unseating longtime Rep. Elliot Engel in the primary, and he now faces two members of the county legislature who hope to do the same thing to him.

Bowman’s main adversary looks like Vedat Gashi, who is presenting himself as a more moderate alternative to the progressive incumbent. Gashi has the backing of Engel, who represented 75% of the new iteration of the 16th at the time Bowman beat him, and he’s brought in a notable amount of money for his bid. Gashi’s colleague, Catherine Parker, launched her own bid in late May, but she’s struggled with fundraising. Rounding out the field is Mark Jaffe, who fared badly in a 2020 primary for the Assembly.

● NY-17 (D) (54-44 Biden): Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who heads the DCCC, is locked in a primary duel against state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, who is trying to run to his left. Maloney represents only about a quarter of this new constituency in the lower Hudson Valley, and Biaggi has taken him to task for running here rather than defending the more competitive 18th District that’s home to most of his current constituents.

Biaggi, though, currently serves none of this seat, and she doesn’t have anything approaching the incumbent’s resources. Maloney has the endorsement of Bill Clinton, who lives in the new 17th, while 14th District Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Working Families Party are pulling for the challenger. The winner will likely go up against Assemblyman Mike Lawler, who appears to be the leading candidate in the GOP primary.

● NY-19 (D) (51-47 Biden): Two Democrats are campaigning to face Republican Marc Molinaro, who is competing in the aforementioned special election for the old 19th District. A bit under half of the new version of this constituency, which is based in southeastern upstate New York, overlaps with the seat Molinaro is running for on Tuesday.  One of the Democratic contenders is attorney Josh Riley, who had been running for the 22nd District in the Syracuse area until May. His opponent is businesswoman Jamie Cheney, who has run ads discussing how she had an abortion a decade ago.

● NY-22 (D & R) (53-45 Biden): Both parties have contested primaries to succeed Republican Rep. John Katko in a seat that contains the Syracuse and Utica areas. The only Democrat who has raised a serious amount of money is Navy veteran Francis Conole, who lost the 2020 primary to take on Katko in the old 24th District. Protect Our Future has also deployed over $500,000 to support Conole, while there has been no outside spending for any of his rivals, who include Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood, Syracuse Common Councilor Chol Majok, and former Assemblyman Sam Roberts.

The GOP side pits businessman Steve Wells, who lost the 2016 primary to now-Rep. Claudia Tenney in the old 22nd, against Navy veteran Brandon Williams. National Republicans are very much rooting for the self-funding Wells, as the Congressional Leadership Fund is running commercials to support him.

● NY-23 (R) (58-40 Trump): Freshman GOP Rep. Chris Jacobs abruptly decided to retire in June after coming out in favor of gun safety measures following the mass shooting in Buffalo, and two prominent Republicans are facing off to replace him. The early frontrunner was developer Carl Paladino, the proto-Trump who served as the 2010 Republican nominee for governor and has a long and ongoing history of bigoted outbursts. Paladino’s opponent is Nick Langworthy, who has retained his position as state party chair during the campaign.

Paladino has used his wealth to massively outspend Langworthy, and he released an internal in mid-July that showed him winning by a lopsided 54-24 margin. An independent survey conducted by veteran pollster Barry Zeplowitz weeks later, though, put ​​Langworthy ahead 39-37. Paladino characteristically trashed Zeplowitz for donating $99 to his rival and claimed he had “no credibility,” but he didn’t respond with contrary numbers. The winner will face Democrat Max Della Pia, who as noted above is also running in Tuesday's special election for the old 23rd. (Neither Jacobs nor Paladino sought the GOP nod for the special.)

Crenshaw denounces ‘crazy’ GOP rhetoric on FBI: ’99 percent of Republicans are not on that train’

Posted on (Updated by Zach Schonfeld

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) on Sunday sought to distance himself from those in his party calling to defund the FBI following the agency’s search of former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.

“Oh yes, it's crazy,” Crenshaw responded when CNN’s Jake Tapper asked him about recent GOP rhetoric on “State of the Union.”

Many in the GOP have portrayed the search, which was connected to an investigation into the former president’s handling of classified documents, as politically motivated. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) filed impeachment articles against Attorney General Merrick Garland and called for the FBI to be defunded.

Those demands have been met with condemnation from some in the GOP, drawing comparisons to the defund the police movement that has been promoted by progressive lawmakers including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

“It makes us seem like extremist Democrats, right?” Crenshaw said on Sunday. “And so Marjorie and AOC can go join the defund the law enforcement club if they want. Ninety-nine percent of Republicans are not on that train.”

Despite separating himself from those calls, Crenshaw on Sunday did call for accountability and transparency from the FBI and Department of Justice (DOJ) following the search, saying it was "automatically political." 

A federal judge last week signaled openness to releasing a redacted version of the affidavit to support the search warrant application, but the DOJ has opposed the move, citing concerns for witness safety.

“The criticisms that we're leveling against the FBI and DOJ are fully warranted,” Crenshaw told Tapper. “It is not those criticisms that lead to a crazy person attacking an FBI.”

An armed man attempted to breach the FBI’s Cincinnati field office in the days following the Mar-a-Lago search, and the intelligence community cited the incident in a recent bulletin warning of increased threats to federal law enforcement.

The FBI arrested a Pennsylvania man following the search for allegedly threatening to kill the agency’s personnel.

“That's completely wrong, but that's not where 99 percent of Republicans are at, of course,” Crenshaw said on CNN.

Meet the new dark money Republican hoax and troll group, ‘Citizens for Sanity’

Posted on by Hunter

One of the hallmarks of the Steve Bannon era, and the Tucker Carlson era, the Rudy Giuliani era, and God help us all we could keep going with that for another hour if nobody reined us in, was the seemingly omnipresent political question: Are American voters really dim enough to fall for that? "That" has been a take-your-pick selection of some of the weirdest conspiracy theories and paranoias to ever have campaign money put behind them, but the answer has always seemed to be: Yes.

Yes, there is literally no invented paranoia too ridiculous for some segment of the jus' folks Republican base to refuse to latch on to. You say Central American drug cartels are working with Al Qaeda to ship dangerous sex toys to Walmart store basements? This requires immediate action! Why are Democrats letting this happen? Why are our national newspapers not up in arms about this? Why yes, I will donate $20 to your campaign or interest group so that you can bring us more news about the Al Qaeda Sex Toy Caravan!

You might remember, as one example, that Texas Republicans—the sort of people who willingly elect Louie Gohmert to office, and more than once—became convinced during the Obama years that a multistate military exercise used to test and train our large-scale military operations capabilities, dubbed by the Pentagon as Jade Helm, was secretly a plot by the federal government to take over Texas and turn it into, uh, part of America. Republicans showed up at town halls seething about these things. The state's Republican officials put out stern warnings insisting that they were on the lookout for this sort of thing, so if any Texas law enforcement folks saw any suspicious pro-Obama annexation happening, by gum there would be trouble.

No, really. State officials had to "address" this and everything.

So yeah, something we've learned over the years is that the more conservative an American is, the more willing they are to believe absolutely anything you throw at them. You say caravans, they believe caravans. You say "Obama's gonna annex Texas" they believe Obama's gonna annex Texas. They might not know what a single damn word of it means, but they will make it a core part of their identity and howl in heavily armed outrage at anyone who doesn't believe it as much as they do.

Conservative dark money groups have taken to weaponizing that paranoia, and that brings us to the current moment. A Politico story reports that a dark money group calling itself Citizens for Sanity—this is a very Washington, D.C., thing, this naming convention of picking a name that openly throat-punches the premise of the underlying thing being sold—will supposedly be spending "millions of dollars" on what amounts to a trolling campaign.

A trolling campaign aimed just as much at their own base as on anyone else, mind you: The group is targeting allegedly out-of-control "wokeness" and the terrible "woke" radicals who are threatening America with it. The first John Brabender-produced ad, reports Politico, envisions a terror-filled future in which a transgender athlete wins a sporting event.

Because yes, that's the sort of thing that will get Republican base voters worked up. Republican voters are not smart. They are extremely not smart. They are to smart what yogurt is to bridge construction. The Republican base quite literally does not care about 1 million pandemic deaths. They believe climate change is a hoax perpetrated against them by nerds. They would rather live in a post-coup fascist dystopia than pay an extra 20 cents for gas, and will tell you so to your face.

Tell them that transgender athletes are coming to win all the sporting events, thus somehow leading to America annexing Texas, you'll have these beer-burping twits out waving guns in front of government buildings in three minutes flat. Conservative campaign groups love these voters. They can be controlled with a piece of cheese on a string. Come up with even the most bizarre scenario in which a conservative talk radio listener or Fox News watcher might be expected to show a bare amount of public decency and out come the guns. Convince them that the history book mention of Fredrick Douglass on page 174 is a conspiracy to make children “woke” and they'll be dry-humping whatever politician vows to defeat that evil scheme.

Yogurt. Bridges.

So this is how unknown rich assholes will be spending their money in the months before the midterms, and we don't know which rich assholes because nobody wants their name attached to what amounts to a(nother) bottomlessly cynical professional hoax-producing outfit. Maybe it's the MyPillow guy. Maybe it's the Uline guy. Maybe it's some stadium owner, maybe it's that same group of half-dozen wealthy fascists that has been trying to overturn democracy ever since people started muttering that they should pay their damn taxes already. It's purely a trolling effort, with billboards—and, if Politico is to be believed, this is actually real—with fake slogans plastered on them like "Protect Pregnant Men from Climate Discrimination," and, "Open the jails. Open the borders. Close the schools. Vote progressive this November."

It's a multimillion dollar troll campaign, and the people being trolled aren't just conservatism's many supposed cultural enemies, but Republican voters themselves. If you want a conspiracy theory to panic over, here’s one: Republicans have spent the last five decades trying to sabotage both education and journalism, and now that a significant percentage of the U.S. population has yogurt for brains and couldn’t decipher a two-box flowchart if their lives depended on it, the party intends to capitalize on the effort by rousing the yogurt-brained as the driving force of electoral politics.

Forget about the coup attempt and the deaths in the U.S. Capitol. Forget about the Republican domestic terrorism, the new laws giving party lackeys the power to overturn election results, the million pandemic deaths, the two impeachments, the national security documents found stuffed into rooms at Mar-a-Lago. Forget about your abortion rights. If you abandon Republicanism just because of that stuff Republicans are doing, our dearly gullible Republican voters, criminals will run amuck, men will demand pregnancy rights, and children will be allowed to participate in sporting events without local party officials looking down their pants.

The premise of Citizens for Sanity: "Forget everything we've done, all you yogurt-brains. Instead, here are 50 new conspiracy theories. Just pick whichever one you want and go with it, we really don't care."

Once again: Republicanism is reliant on hoaxes. It is now how they campaign, and how they govern, and how they try to evade responsibility for even criminal acts. Not just the dark money groups, but individual campaigns are now centered around "The 2020 elections were secretly rigged against Trump," or, "The entire American education system is actually a trick perpetrated on the country by woke anti-racist groomers." Hoax-based gibberish is now the basis of all of Republicanism.

And we're left once again wondering: Will it work? How much will it work? What percentage of conservative voters, after turning their own brains to absolute mush by watching pro-fascist conspiracy programs propped up by the Murdoch family for just a bit more wealth, will vote to ignore the abortion debate, Florida's future coastlines, the future inhabitability of large parts of the Republican-held South, the return of polio, and an economy that's no longer collapsing because they are absolutely convinced a secret plot by "woke" people will destroy the country if they don't keep voting for the party that turns everything it governs to crap?