It took House GOP just one day to show why Democrats need to bomb-proof everything while they can

It’s going exactly how Republicans promised it would if they took the House: vengeance. Nothing but vengeance. Policy agenda? As if.

The first press conference of their majority Thursday, was from the Oversight and Judiciary Committee chairs laying out the number one target for their vendetta. It was all Hunter Biden’s laptop, all the time. A thing that is entirely not real.

On the second day of their majority, Rep. Jim Jordan’s Judiciary committee sent a letter to White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain demanding the testimony of White House staff about the administration’s “misuse of federal criminal and counterterrorism resources to target concerned parents at school board meetings.” Another thing that never happened. All four of the people they are demanding testimony from are women, and some are women of color.

That was just the start. Jordan also sent letters to Justice, the FBI, Departments of Education, and Homeland Security telling them to “anticipate requiring testimony, either in hearings or transcribed interviews” from dozens more officials, many again of whom are people of color and women.

What about inflation? What about gas prices? What about fentanyl? What about violent crime? What about immigration? What about making sure everyone can afford to go to Disneyland?

As if.

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They are not interested in making government work. They won’t try to make government work. Which is why it is imperative that Democrats do all the stuff while they have the majority. That includes figuring out how to put the debt ceiling out of their reach, just for a start. That one’s a necessity.

So is doing the least they can on protecting the next presidential election by pushing the electoral count reforms through. We have some breathing room on that with the great results in some swing state elections, but fixing this is important, particularly now that larger election reforms can’t get done.

It would also be super smart to revive the child tax credit monthly payments from the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill Democrats passed, and generally do do everything they possibly can to help regular people and to make a very big deal out of it—the Democrats’ Christmas Gift to America—to start making the case for 2024.

Which will have to happen the week after next, because they’re already gone until after Thanksgiving. Oh, well. In the meantime, enjoy the Washington Post showing us what a fool Kevin McCarthy is, and relish how his red wave became a pink dribble.

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RELATED STORIES

Toomey blames Trump for GOP midterm losses

Retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) blamed former President Trump for Republicans losing the Pennsylvania Senate race and other close races this week, asserting there was “a high correlation between MAGA candidates and big losses.”  

Toomey, who twice won election in Pennsylvania in 2010 and 2016, said Trump created political problems for Republican candidate Mehmet Oz, who tried to distance himself from the former president's claims that the 2020 election was stolen through widespread fraud.  

“President Trump had to insert himself and that changed the nature of the race and that created just too much of an obstacle,” Toomey said on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront.”  

“And by the way, it’s not just Pennsylvania. You look all over the country, there’s a very high correlation between MAGA candidates and big losses, or at least dramatically underperforming,” he added, referring to Trump’s slogan: Make America Great Again.  

Toomey predicted that the poor performance of Trump-backed candidates, especially those who embraced his unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud, will “accelerate” the former president’s loss of influence in the party.  

"So here's my theory on the case, is that there is not going to be one discrete moment at which the fever breaks and Donald Trump becomes irrelevant. That's not likely to happen. What I think is: his influence wanes,” Toomey said. 

“And a debacle like we had Tuesday night, from a Republican point of view, accelerates the pace at which that influence wanes,” he said.  

Toomey highlighted what he called “interesting data points” showing that Trump’s popularity in the party isn’t what it was even a year ago.  

“A year or two ago, if you ask Republican voters — ‘Do they consider themselves more traditional Republicans or Donald Trump Republicans?’ — he had a huge lead. That has flipped. And that’s telling, I think. I think that’s going to continue.” 

Toomey was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in February of 2021 on the impeachment charge that he incited the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. 

Other prominent Republicans are also blaming Trump for their party’s disappointing performance on Election Day.  

While Republicans are poised to capture control of the House and still have a chance to win the Senate, the red wave that many of them expected failed to form as Republican voters turned out to the polls in lower numbers than projected.  

Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said the GOP is suffering from a “Trump hangover.”

"I think Trump's kind of a drag on our ticket. I think Donald Trump gives us problems politically," he told a local television reporter in Janesville, Wis.  

"We lost the House, the Senate and the White House in two years when Trump was on the ballot, or in office," he said. "I think we just have some Trump hangover. I think he's a drag on our ... races."

Senate Republican strategists weren’t thrilled that Trump decided to hold a rally with Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano in Latrobe, Pa., the Saturday before Election Day.  

One Senate Republican adviser warned before the event that it was “probably not” a good idea to appear on stage with Trump and Mastriano, an outspoken election denier and opponent of abortion rights, whom Democrats tried to tie to Oz.  

But the adviser acknowledged it was almost impossible for Oz to spurn Trump’s invitation to appear at a rally after the former president’s endorsement helped him beat hedge fund CEO David McCormick in the tightly contested Senate GOP primary.

“What are you going to do?” the source lamented, knowing that Trump’s appearance with Oz didn’t present the best optic for swing voters right before going to the polls.  

Mike Lillis contributed.  

Expected Trump indictment looms over midterm election 

The expected indictment of Donald Trump is looming over the midterm elections as both parties are preparing for a major battle after Election Day if Attorney General Merrick Garland moves forward with an unprecedented prosecution of a former president. 

Republican lawmakers in both the Senate and the House are warning they will put up a staunch defense of Trump if the Department of Justice announces an indictment, which some GOP aides and strategists expect to come in the first 60 to 90 days after Election Day.  

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is already warning that GOP lawmakers could use their power of the purse to reign in the Justice Department if prosecutors indict Trump, which he says would be using law enforcement authority as a political weapon. 

“If Biden treats the Department of Justice as partisan stormtroopers, then Congress is justified in using whatever tools Congress has to stop that abuse of power,” Cruz told The Hill in an interview, when asked about the possibility of holding up Justice Department funding.  

If an indictment of Trump does come before mid-December, Justice Department funding likely would become a political football as congressional leaders work to pass legislation to fund the government for the next year.

Cruz, who has a new book out, “Justice Corrupted: How the Left Weaponized the Legal System,” says any indictment of Trump would serve as more evidence that the Justice Department has let partisan politics dictate its decision-making.  

He believes the Justice Department will announce an indictment of Trump at around the same time it announces charges against Hunter Biden, the president’s son, in an effort to show that it is acting in an even-handed way.  

“The Biden White House wants to indict Donald Trump and they want to put whatever fig leaf in front of them they can to make it appear slightly less partisan,” Cruz said, pointing to what he called a series of “coordinated” leaks to lay the groundwork for an indictment.   

Sensitive to Republican accusations that the Justice Department is driven by partisan politics, senior Justice Department officials have discussed the possibility of appointing a special prosecutor to handle the investigations and any possible indictment of the former president.  

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who would become chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations if he wins reelection and Republicans win control of the Senate, says one of his top priorities will be to investigate what his spokeswoman called the “corruption and politicization of federal law enforcement and our intelligence agencies.” 

Johnson last month proposed setting up a select congressional committee similar to the Senate’s Church Committee established in 1975 to investigate whether the CIA spied on anti-war protesters.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is expected to take over as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee if Republicans capture the House, plans to investigate the Justice Department’s search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home for classified documents.

House Judiciary Committee Republicans on Friday released a 1,000-page report detailing what they called “a rampant culture of unaccountability, manipulation and abuse at the highest level” at the Department of Justice and FBI.  

Reports circulated on Friday that Trump could announce a reelection bid as soon as Nov. 14.

He’d be the instant front-runner in the Republican presidential primary field and Senate GOP aides predict the party’s conservative base would quickly rally to his defense against any criminal charges brought by the Justice Department.  

An early Trump bid could also be interpreted as a warning shot at Justice that any indictment of him as he runs for the White House would be political.

Some think their party has a better chance of retaking the White House with a different standard-bearer. But few of these Republicans are likely to back an indictment.

Former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who served as a counselor to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) leadership team during his time in the Senate, said the Republican backlash to an indictment against Trump will be “massive” and “overwhelming.”  

“Even people like myself who have no use for Donald Trump and think he’s been very unfortunate for our party and that his treatment of our electoral process has undermined our democratic process would find it extremely difficult to tolerate an indictment of a former president,” he said. “There would have to be just incredible grounds of knowing violations that created serious national security problems. I just don’t suspect that’s the case.”

Gregg conceded that “no one knows” outside Trump’s inner orbit, the Justice Department and intelligence agencies just what kind of damage Trump may have caused to national security by keeping classified documents at his estate but warned “indicting a former president is a complete breakdown, in my opinion, of the structure of our government which is built on some level of tolerance of political activity.”  

Gregg said Garland should expect a fight over funding for his department if he indicts Trump and Republicans win control of one or both chambers of Congress.  

“You would have a constitutional issue of immense proportions because the Congress would, I assume, assert its right to discipline the administration or the attorney general through the purse and maybe in other ways,” he said. “We don’t need that as a country.”  

A Senate Republican aide said GOP lawmakers are closely following the moves of the Justice Department, and that an indictment could strengthen Trump politically. “Everyone rallied around him again” after the Mar-a-Lago raid, the aide noted.  

Democrats say Garland will face calls for his resignation if federal prosecutors decide to not prosecute Trump for holding sensitive classified documents at his estate at Mar-a-Lago, which they view as a clear violation of the law and a straightforward case to argue in court.  

“If he ultimately determines to not bring charges against Trump, somebody will call for him to step down,” said Ray Zaccaro, a Democratic strategist and former Senate aide.  

Zaccaro argued that Trump’s possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago broke the law and that the crime happened after he left office. He also noted that while no former U.S. president has been indicted on criminal charges, it has happened in other countries.  

Democratic members of the House Select Jan. 6 committee vented frustration earlier this year over the Department of Justice being slow to pursue contempt charges with members of Trump’s inner circle who refused to cooperate with the panel.  

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) bluntly called on Garland in March to “Do Your Job” after the Justice Department was slow in supporting the subpoenas of the Jan. 6 Committee.  

The backlash will be more intense after Election Day if Garland doesn’t act to enforce the law prohibiting the private possession of highly classified documents, such as a document describing Iran’s missile program, which the FBI seized at Mar-a-Lago.  

Republicans and Democrats who expect the Justice Department to indict Trump believe it will bring charges against the former president for holding classified national security-related documents at Mar-a-Lago, instead of trying to prosecute him for inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Any prosecution of Trump related to Jan. 6 would be complicated by the fact that the Senate already tried and acquitted Trump on similar charges during his impeachment trial last year.  

Republican and Democratic aides acknowledge that any prosecution of Trump will plunge the Department of Justice into a political firestorm and make it more difficult for the Biden administration to work with Republicans, who are likely to control the House if not both chambers of Congress next year.  

“If the Department of Justice does it, it will be a maelstrom. They’re obviously well aware of that but have to balance it with their duty to uphold and administer the law. It’s pretty clear that Merrick Garland is not relishing this,” said a Senate Democratic aide who requested anonymity to discuss Trump’s possible indictment, a sensitive topic on Capitol Hill.  

The aide said it’s clear that Trump violated the law but cautioned that doesn’t necessarily mean Garland will bring an indictment.  

If the attorney general fails to act, “there are going to be some Democrats who are going to complain vociferously,” the source said, but acknowledged “there are a lot of Democrats who recognize that Garland’s got no good options here” because he will come under strong criticism no matter what he decides to do.  

“Whatever happens on Tuesday will inform his decision but not make it easier,” the aide said, making reference to Election Day, which will be a referendum on Biden but also Trump, whom Democrats have tried to tie to Senate and House GOP candidates.   

Emily Brooks contributed to this report. 

Oz takes risk vs. Fetterman with Trump rally

Former President Trump is seeking to put his imprint on the Pennsylvania Senate race with a rally in Latrobe on Saturday with Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, a risky move given Oz’s efforts to distance himself from Trump’s debunked election fraud claims.

Throughout the 2022 election cycle, Democrats have tried to make the battle for the Senate a referendum on Trump, even though he left office nearly two years ago and won’t be on the ballot.

Oz has distanced himself from Trump’s claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election and has tried to project a moderate image in his race against Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), a stark contrast with gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano (R), an election denier who will also share the state with Trump Saturday.

Some Republican strategists are questioning the wisdom of Oz appearing on stage with Trump and Mastriano, who is trailing by double digits in the gubernatorial race, so soon before Election Day.

One Senate Republican adviser said appearing with Trump and Mastriano is “probably not” a good idea given Trump’s penchant for controversy and his negative approval rating in the state, but lamented: “What are you going to do?”

“I don’t think you have much of a choice in the matter because we have an issue with Republican base voters,” the strategist said, noting that “Trump gave Oz a lot of credibility” by endorsing him in the primary and now Oz has to pay him back.

Retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R), whose seat Oz is running for, refused in 2016 to say whether he would even vote for Trump until about an hour before the polls closed that year.

Toomey was also one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump on the impeachment charge of inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Democrats have also tried hard to tie Oz to Mastriano since last week’s debate when Oz, a celebrity doctor, said that he wanted women, doctors and local political leaders to “put the best ideas forward” on setting rules for abortion.

The Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), immediately unveiled an ad declaring that Oz “thinks abortion decisions belong to politicians like Doug Mastriano,” flashing photos of Oz and Mastriano, a state senator, side by side.

Fetterman told Pittsburgh’s NPR station in an interview aired Wednesday that he “would never stand on … the stage with someone like Doug Mastriano” and emphasized his support for passing a federal law to codify Roe v. Wade, which the Supreme Court struck down in June.

A spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) said the weekend rally with Trump and Mastriano encapsulates why Oz is a bad choice to represent Pennsylvania in the Senate.

“Mehmet Oz will be on stage with Doug Mastriano — the type of extreme ‘local political leader’ who has no business making health care decisions for Pennsylvania women,” said Patrick Burgwinkle of the DSCC.

A Washington-based Democratic strategist said “it’s risky” for Oz to get on stage with Trump and Mastriano, given Trump’s penchant for turning off suburban female voters.

“Trump is just a very polarizing figure and sends people to their corners and this is a state that President Biden won, so you’d be hard-pressed to argue that appearing with the candidate that lost your state two years ago … is an effective way to close out” the race, the strategist said. “You can’t have your rally in Pittsburgh and not have the Philadelphia suburbs aware of what’s going on.”

A USA Today-Suffolk University poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30 found that Trump has a 37 percent favorable rating and a 55 percent unfavorable rating in the state. Biden’s job approval rating stood at 38 percent and his disapproval rating stood at 51 percent in the poll.

The same poll found Fetterman leading Oz by just 2 points in the Senate race, down from a 6-point spread a few weeks ago.

Biden will attend a rally with Fetterman and former President Obama in Philadelphia Saturday. Obama will campaign for Fetterman earlier in the day in Pittsburgh.

Trump’s unscripted speaking style at campaign rallies poses another risk for Oz, who has tried to distance himself from the former president’s unfounded claims of widespread fraud in Pennsylvania in 2020.

Oz said last month that he would not have objected to the certification of Biden’s victory had he been a senator in January of 2021.

There’s a good chance, however, that Trump on Saturday will reprise his claim that the 2020 election results in Pennsylvania were marred by widespread fraud, an unsubstantiated claim that Toomey, the retiring Republican incumbent, dismissed as “very disturbing” and lacking evidence.

Trump on Tuesday raised fresh doubt about whether this year’s elections in Pennsylvania would be fair.

He posted an article from the site Just the News reporting that the Pennsylvania Department of State had sent out more than 240,000 mail-in ballots without verifying voter identities.

“Here we go again! Rigged election!” he wrote.

That has Republican strategists in Washington worried about a reprise of what happened in the Georgia Senate runoff elections in January of 2021, when Republican voter turnout dropped off after Trump claimed the mail-in balloting process was rife with fraud.

More than 750,000 Georgia voters who cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election did not vote in the Senate runoff races two months later, according to an analysis by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won both races.

A Senate Republican aide warned that Trump could depress GOP turnout in Pennsylvania by making new claims of brewing election fraud.

“There’s no doubt that he hurt there,” the aide said of Trump’s impact on the failed reelection bids of then-Sens. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) in 2021.

However, Brian Nutt, a Republican strategist based in Harrisburg, Pa., argued that Tuesday’s race will be a referendum on Biden’s record, not Trump’s claim of election fraud.

“I wouldn’t know what the Oz campaign is thinking or looking at in that regard,” he said of Saturday’s rally in Latrobe. “It’s pretty hard for the Democrats or anyone to make it a referendum on Donald Trump when we have inflation at a 40-year high, we have $4 and $5 gasoline."

“It’s very hard to make this a referendum about Donald Trump when the country is in a crisis financially,” he said.

Nutt said Oz may be motivated to hold a rally with Trump “to bring even more [Republican] voters home” to his campaign.

Oz, who narrowly won the GOP primary over hedge fund CEO David McCormick, had trouble consolidating GOP voters behind his campaign over the summer.

But a new poll shows that more Republican voters have rallied to Oz over the last few weeks.

The Muhlenberg College-Morning Call poll of 460 likely voters conducted from Oct. 24 to Oct. 28 showed that 87 percent of Republican voters say they support Oz, up from the 81 percent of GOP voters who said they did in September.

Lindsey Graham’s message in Georgia: ‘I want every liberal to be miserable come election night’

If you’re wondering how Republicans intend to fix the problems they keep complaining about—namely inflation, gas prices, and the downtrend in Americans’ overall financial stability—you’ll have to wait. Right now, they’re campaigning on complaining about those things, complaining about “the libs,” complaining about imaginary crime waves, and offering their own potential voters absolutely no relief from real problems. 

Take, for example, Sen. Lindsey Graham’s closing comments in Georgia. Now, it’s not new that Graham is saying something ignorant and controversial, but this week the Republican Senator has been on a real spree. Campaigning for GOP Senate candidate JD Vance, Graham joked about mass suicide on Tuesday, Business Insider reported.

"You got something really special here. This guy is going to change the Republican Party, change the Senate, all for the better," Graham said at a Republican-hosted dinner party, referring to Vance. "But here's some words that really rattle the Democratic Party. What's the worst thing the Democratic Party wants to hear? Chairman Jim Jordan. There are gonna be people jumping off bridges in San Francisco by the thousands. You know, New York City, they may literally shut down.”

According to News Nation, Jordan, currently the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee, is the talk of the town since he has pledged to conduct investigations into the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) if the GOP retakes the House.

It doesn’t really matter why Jordan plans to investigate the FBI and DOJ (it’s for investigating Trump); what matters is how little these hypothetical future investigations matter to everyday American families, and how little interest the GOP seems to have in actually alleviating the issues they claim Democrats have caused. 

And, worse, given the increase in mental health issues across the nation as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, this joke is especially cruel. According to The Los Angeles Times, the Golden Gate Bridge has seen the highest number of suicides on any bridge in the country—with an average of 30 people dying each year from taking the jump.

We all know Republicans hate Democrats, but that doesn't excuse jokes about suicide and violence, and it doesn’t solve problems voters need solutions for.

And, of course, it’s not only Graham. This week, though, it is mostly Graham. In response to allegations that GOP Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker pressured not one but two women to have abortions, Graham joined Walker in hosting a press conference. 

Not only did Graham take that opportunity to support his awful friend, but once again took the chance to slam Democrats.

Graham: They're scared to death of Herschel Walker because if Herschel walker becomes a Republican, maybe every other young child in America of color might want to be a Republican. pic.twitter.com/PRwuLMZ0EK

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 27, 2022

If Herschel Walker becomes a Republican? At the end of the day, Walker has consistently failed to offer plans for the primary topics of his television ads—inflation, supporting small businesses, and increasing clean energy. Graham, too, has failed to focus on the issues he promised Americans that he will uphold. Instead, he has taken to the tactic of creating fear. Americans need more than petty name-calling, and that seems to be the totality of Republican ideas. 

By emphasizing violence and encouraging pain, he is appealing to voters who are in favor of such methods—in addition to normalizing that such tactics are okay. Of course, just like he has done with other comments like this one on suicide, he will claim it was all just a joke. But how is hoping for individuals to experience violence and wanting ‘every liberal to be miserable come election night' a joke? And how does it fix inflation?

Graham: I want every liberal to be miserable come election night. pic.twitter.com/7c1o1au1sQ

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 27, 2022

Phrases of the same nature were called jokes before they led to events like Jan. 6, when individuals were hoping to harass, beat, and even kill Democratic members of Congress. 

Encouraging violence is not all Republicans have a trend of doing, though. Scapegoating names they know will rile up those who aren’t in tune with the news or truth is another tactic. Rep. Ralph Norman used this tactic this week when claiming that America was run by elitists—dragging Barack Obama’s name in and again revealing the only real plans Republicans have: Targeting Democrats with a barrage of baseless subpoenas. “We are going to subpoena as many people as we can,” he said, claiming that Biden was not running the country and that Obama and Eric Holder were. How are Obama and Eric Holder still living rent-free in his head almost 6 years after leaving office? What’s next? Will they drag Hillary Clinton in for questioning? (Probably, actually. Let’s not assume they have limits.)

Ralph Norman says a “cabal” led by Barack Obama and Eric Holder is secretly running the country: “Biden is not running this country. There is a cabal of unelected elitists who are running this country .. Barack Obama is involved .. Eric Holder ..” pic.twitter.com/J2fUxMtwHf

— Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) October 26, 2022

Norman said:

"And I think what he's saying is putting the country through impeachment, what you get could be even worse. We got our hands full. I don't — there’s no question about that. But we're going to subpoena as many people as we can: We are going to hopefully have consequences, starting with Mayorkas, Wray with the FBI, I mean a whole host of things. The whole administration is a rogue administration. And I guess we all know, Joe Biden is not running this country. There is a cabal of unelected elitists who are running this country. Probably Barack Obama is involved, probably Eric Holder and — but who knows. We know it's not Biden. But the impeachment deal is a long drawn out thing, and if there's anybody that was coherent they could take over, that would not ruin the country, but it's not possible with Kamala Harris."

Meanwhile, Democrats are again left to be the grown-ups in the room. Running campaigns and governing based on bipartisan ideals, even to the chagrin of the progressive left, and as usual, Democrats are tasked with the heavy lifting of creating legitimate policy positions and actionable ideas around health care, climate change, and national security. 

Related Story: Another woman has come forward with claims that Herschel Walker was involved in her abortion

If someone you know is struggling emotionally or having a hard time, you can be the difference in getting them the help they need. Dial 988 for the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline.

Utah emerges as wild card in battle for the Senate

The Utah Senate race between conservative Republican Sen. Mike Lee and Independent Evan McMullin has emerged as a potential wild card in the battle for the Senate.

Recent polls show the race is close, with McMullin trailing Lee by only a few points in a state where Republican victories are usually all but guaranteed.

Lee, a conservative who supported then-President Trump’s effort to challenge the 2020 election results on Jan. 6, is a star among many members of Utah’s Republican base, but his unpopularity among moderates and Democrats has driven his approval rating down to the low 40s.  

“This is within the margin of error,” said Richard Davis, an emeritus professor of political science at Brigham Young University, citing recent polls by Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics. “It could go either way. It’s basically neck and neck.”  

If McMullin manages to pull off an upset, his pledge to not caucus with either Democrats or Republicans could throw the battle for control of the Senate into turmoil.

If Republicans wind up keeping retiring Sen. Pat Toomey’s (R) Pennsylvania seat in GOP hands and defeating the Democratic incumbent in Nevada or Georgia, McMullin could still keep the Senate under Democratic control by voting for Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) as majority leader.

Conversely, he could swing it to Republicans by affiliating with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) or simply not affiliating with either party, which would give Republicans a 50-to-49 seat majority with one unaffiliated senator in the chamber.  

“He’s in the catbird seat because as an Independent both sides are going to want to give him something” to get his vote for determining the Senate majority in an evenly split chamber, Davis said.  

“I can’t imagine that he’s going to caucus with the Republicans, but he had to say that he wasn’t going to caucus with the Democrats to win over the very people he’s trying to win over right now,” Davis said of the moderate Republicans who aren’t thrilled about voting for Lee but wouldn’t consider voting for a Democrat, either. 

“He could be in an extremely powerful situation if he gets to determine which way the Senate is organized, which party gets the majority,” he added. “I think what he’s going to do is negotiate on Utah’s behalf, get things for Utah out of this.”  

The latest Deseret-Hinckley poll shows Lee leading McMullin by four points, 41 percent to 37 percent, with 12 percent of Utah voters undecided.  

The poll found that 40 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Lee, while 47 percent had an unfavorable view.  

Lee’s allies, however, argue that the Deseret poll put too much weight on registered instead of likely voters, skewing the results in favor of McMullin.  

Lee’s allies think it’s more likely that the incumbent wins by a healthy margin of 10 or more points.  

The poll, however, found the numbers stay largely the same among likely voters and the race tightens among those who say they will definitely vote, with Lee leading McMullin 42-40 percent.  

“Mike Lee is leading this race. Every reliable poll shows Sen. Lee with a significant lead and our internal polling gives us even greater confidence in the strong support he has across the state,” said Matt Lusty, an adviser to the Lee campaign.  

Utah Democrats helped McMullin significantly by declining to endorse one of their own members and instead backing McMullin at their state convention in April. The Deseret poll found 68 percent of Democrats backing McMullin, and he leads with unaffiliated voters as well.

Davis said if McMullin can win over more Republican moderates who see themselves more in the same camp as Utah’s centrist Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, who voted twice to convict Trump on impeachment charges, he could wind up winning.  

McMullin ran as an Independent for president in 2016 and turned in his best performance in Utah, where he won 21 percent of the vote in the general election — trailing the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by only 6 points. Trump carried the state with 45 percent of the vote. 

Boyd Matheson, a prominent Utah radio host who formerly served as Lee’s chief of staff, said McMullin would find himself under tremendous pressure to pick a side if he manages to defy the odds and win election to an evenly divided Senate.  

The Senate’s two current Independents — Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Angus King (Maine) — both caucus with Democrats. Neither, however, had to defeat a sitting senator to win their seats.

“He would be under immense pressure from both Democrats and Republicans and picking a side at this point matters because if you look at someone like a [Sen.] Joe Manchin [D-W.Va.], the reason Manchin has power because he’s in the room,” Matheson said.  

He said if McMullin refuses to caucus with either party, he won’t have any way to sit on a committee without getting a special deal from one of the party leaders.  

“That’s going to be the challenge for McMullin. If he wins, can he have any influence without any committee assignment without being in the Republican lunch or the Democratic caucus lunch?” he said.  

The race was largely overlooked until Lee went on Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s show Tuesday to plead for Romney’s endorsement, a surprising move since Romney made clear early in the race that he would stay neutral.  

“As soon as Mitt Romney is ready to, I will eagerly accept his endorsement,” Lee pleaded on Carlson’s show. “Evan McMullin is raising millions of dollars off Act Blue, the Democratic donor database based on this idea that he’s going to defeat me and help perpetuate the Democratic majority.”  

“I’ve asked him, I’m asking him right here again tonight right now,” Lee said. “Please get on board. Help me win reelection.”  

Senate aides say Lee’s pleas for help from Romney were especially surprising given that they have clashed repeatedly this Congress, starting with Lee’s strong support for Trump’s effort to challenge the 2020 election results through the courts.  

Romney, by contrast, was the only Senate Republican to vote to convict Trump after both of his impeachment trials.  

The two Utah senators have also clashed over major policy differences. Lee voted against the three major bipartisan initiatives that Romney supported during President Biden’s term: a $1 trillion infrastructure bill; legislation addressing gun violence after the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas; and a $280 billion bill to support the domestic semiconductor industry.  

But Lee and Romney have also worked together on bills to help constituents in Utah, such as the bill they introduced in April to address housing supply and affordability by allowing parcels of federal land to be purchased at a reduced price.  

And they pool their staff to work jointly on constituents’ special cases.  

Even so, Romney and Lee are hardly considered friends.  

Davis, the emeritus political scientist, said Romney is “unlikely” to change his mind and endorse Lee “because I don’t think these two get along well.”  

“He can’t endorse McMullin because that would probably be a step too far to do that but by not endorsing [Lee] he’s certainly sending a message,” he added of Romney.  

Adding to the surreal moment on Carlson’s show, Trump waded into the race by releasing a statement praising Lee as an “outstanding senator” and criticizing Romney harshly for not endorsing his home-state colleague — bringing fresh attention to the possibility that Lee, who won reelection in a landslide six years ago, might be in trouble.  

Trump declared that Romney’s decision to stay neutral in the race “has abused” Lee “in an unprecedented way.”  

Lusty, Lee’s campaign adviser, said: “Sen. Lee sees it as important for all members of the party to stand together and he welcomes the public endorsement of all of his Senate GOP colleagues, including Sen. Romney.”  

But Romney’s defenders are quick to note that Lee refused to endorse late Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) when he ran for reelection in 2012 and Lee’s chief of staff at the time, Spencer Stokes, predicted that Hatch would lose because he had already spent far too much time in Washington.

Fundraising data collected by the Federal Election Commission as of Oct. 14 showed that Lee had raised $7.9 million for his reelection while McMullin had raised $3.2 million. 

Outside interest groups are also pouring money into the race.  

The conservative Club for Growth, a group long allied with Lee, has already spent $2.2 million on the Utah Senate race and has vowed to pour more money into the race, according to The Salt Lake Tribune.  

On the other side, the Put Utah First PAC has spent more than $2.5 million to help McMullin. 

Trump says Mike Lee ‘abused’ by Romney

Former President Trump slammed Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) on Wednesday, accusing him of "abusing" his Utah colleague Sen. Mike Lee (R) following news that Romney has refrained from issuing an endorsement in Lee's reelection campaign.

"Mike Lee is an outstanding Senator who has been abused, in an unprecedented way, by a fellow Republican Senator from his own State, something which rarely has happened in political History," Trump said in a statement issued through his Save America PAC.

"Such an event would only be understandable if Mike did not perform his duties as a United States Senator, but he has, and he has performed them well," the former president continued.

Lee, who is in a tight race with Independent challenger Evan McMullin, appealed to Romney on Tuesday evening during a conversation with Fox News host Tucker Carlson, asking his colleague to help him win.

“Well, I’ve asked him. I’m asking him right here, again, tonight, right now. Mitt, if you’d like to protect the Republican majority, give us any chance of seizing the Republican majority, once again, getting it away from the Democrats, who are facilitating this massive spending spree in a massive inflationary binge, please get on board,” Lee said.

In his appeal, Lee mentioned that the contest between himself and McMullin, a former CIA officer, was getting tighter. According to nonpartisan handicapper Cook Political Report, the race is rated "likely Republican." However, recent polling shows that McMullin is closing the gap.

For his part, Romney said he's refrained from making an endorsement because he is friends with both Lee and McMullin, who left the Republican party in 2016 after Trump won the party's presidential nomination, and ran against him as an Independent.

“I’ve worked with Mike a lot and appreciate the work we do together. But both are good friends, and I’m going to stay out,” Romney said in a statement to The Hill.

Romney also caught Trump's ire after he voted to convict the former president of one count during his first impeachment trial and has been a critic of the Trump administration in the past. Trump has called Romney a "super RINO," or "Republican in name only."

On Wednesday, Trump said that McMullin did not represent the values of Utah, "but neither, as you will see in two years, does Mitt Romney, who refuses to endorse his fellow Republican Senator, Mike Lee."

"Mike Lee is outstanding and has my Complete and Total Endorsement. Mitt Romney and Evan McMuffin can count on the fact that they will never have my Endorsement!," he concluded.

Cruz picks up corporate partner for podcast

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is expanding his weekly podcast to three times per week after picking up iHeartRadio as a corporate partner. 

Michael Knowles, the co-host of “Verdict with Ted Cruz,” announced on an episode of the podcast that they received the offer to expand, which he said will take the show to a “huge national audience” on radio stations in addition to the podcast. 

“It will make this show sustainable, not just for the next few months going into the midterms but for the next years,” Knowles said. 

Cruz described iHeartRadio as a “monster” that has 850 stations across the country. He said they were not looking for the partnership, but iHeartRadio saw the podcast and said they want to take it to “the next level," promoting it on their radio stations and podcasts. 

Cruz began the podcast in January 2020 during former President Trump’s first impeachment trial as a forum for him to share his opinions on major political news. 

Knowles said on the show that he will not be able to continue to serve as co-host under the agreement due to his own arrangement working on a radio show for The Daily Wire. Ben Ferguson, a conservative podcaster who works for iHeartRadio, will take his place as co-host. 

IHeartRadio carries podcasts and talk shows for several other conservative hosts, including Glenn Beck and Fox News’s Sean Hannity. 

The podcast episode took place in the midst of a 17-day bus tour Cruz is conducting leading up to the midterm elections next month to campaign for candidates in a wide range of states.

How a GOP Congress could try to impeach a Biden Cabinet member

Republicans have vowed to use the full power of the House of Representatives if they take control in November, threatening everything from shutting down investigations into the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol to impeaching President Biden and his cabinet secretaries.

While Republicans are all but certain to terminate the select committee on the Jan. 6 attack, it's less clear whether they'll risk the political uncertainties of an impeachment trial.

But if they take the plunge, their sights will be on Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

In a letter to Mayorkas last week, GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Ted Cruz (Texas) explicitly threatened impeachment over the secretary's "gross dereliction of duty" in managing the U.S.-Mexico border.

That missive followed an April letter led by the Republican Study Committee and signed by 133 House Republicans that avoided explicitly calling for impeachment, but laid out the case for Republicans to raise immigration policy differences to the level of impeachable offenses.

"Your actions have willingly endangered American citizens and undermined the rule of law and our nation's sovereignty. Your failure to secure the border and enforce the laws passed by Congress raises grave questions about your suitability for office," wrote the lawmakers.

The Constitution allows for impeachment of the president and other “civil officers” for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors."

But it's unclear what is meant by "high crimes and misdemeanors," and impeachment is understood to be an essentially political act – a Senate would need very little substantial cause to convict an official impeached by the House.

"With my political scientist hat on, I'd say what counts as a high crime or misdemeanor is what you can get two thirds of the Senate to vote to convict on. And that in itself, it's not a substantive standard. It's a procedural one," said Josh Chafetz, a professor of law at Georgetown University.

But Chafetz added that's a "very high bar," since it would require significant buy-in from the president's party.

And while technically there are no limits – other than whip counts in both chambers – to what behaviors Congress can interpret as "high crimes and misdemeanors," precedent does set some boundaries.

“The Constitution provides for impeachment in the case of treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors — not for political revenge or partisan retribution," said David Rapallo, director of the Federal Legislation Clinic at Georgetown Law.

That reading still leaves space for debate as to what constitutes grounds for conviction under impeachment.

"There's been a debate about whether there must be a statutory code violation of a crime to impeach. The general view is that it doesn't necessarily have to be a criminal act under the statutory code, but rather an abuse of power in some way,” said Rapallo.

The Republican case against Mayorkas lies largely on high migrant apprehension and drug interdiction numbers at the southwest border.

U.S. officials encountered 2,150,639 immigrants entering the country without prior authorization in the first 11 months of fiscal 2022, breaking the record for encounters in a year.

And fentanyl seizures continue to rise, as Mexican drug cartels abandon other drugs for the cheaper-to-produce synthetic opioid.

If the GOP takes control of the House, they will almost certainly bring down the hammer on Mayorkas through congressional oversight, but Republicans seem eager to raise the specter of impeachment.

In their letter, Graham and Cruz accuse Mayorkas of aggravating conditions on the border, in part by attempting to end policies put in place under the Trump administration, namely construction of the border wall; the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), better known as "Remain in Mexico"; and Title 42, a policy to quickly expel foreign nationals under the guise of pandemic protections.

While the Department of Homeland Security halted border wall construction shortly after Biden took office, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials announced a plan to return to construction sites in the Sonoran Desert to resume construction of some segments of the wall.

But Graham and Cruz zeroed in on Mayorkas' attempts to end MPP, which are tangled up in the courts.

"Your expedited and repeated rejection of President Trump's successful Migrant Protection Protocols … demonstrates your willingness to embrace an open-borders agenda that undermines America's safety," they wrote. 

"You have been specifically instructed by the court to implement the protocol in good faith or take new agency action that complied with the law. You have done neither."

While the Biden administration was originally directed by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals to continue MPP's implementation "in good faith," the case was returned to a lower court after the Supreme Court sided with the Biden administration's plans to end the policy.

A lower court lifted the order to continue implementing MPP and DHS has been winding the program down.

"In short, MPP is over for now, although there is confusion surrounding its ending," reads a post on MPP's current state of affairs on the American Immigration Lawyers Association blog.

That distinction could blunt the GOP senators' call for impeachment.

"The traditional story we tell about impeachment in America is that it doesn't apply to just bad policy. It's not about maladministration, but rather, it's about malfeasance or nonfeasance," said Chafetz.

And historical precedent is on cabinet members' side when it comes to impeachment.

The only cabinet member ever impeached was President Grant's secretary of war, William Belknap, who was accused of taking kickbacks from a contractor he appointed to run the trader post in Fort Sill, Oklahoma.

While most historians agree the accusations against Belknap were credible, he avoided conviction in his 1876 impeachment trial because he resigned on the same day he was impeached.

Like President Nixon nearly a century later, Belknap chose to resign rather than face almost certain conviction in the Senate, although the House did pass Belknap's articles of impeachment.

“If it were something like Richard Nixon — that era where his own party was telling him what was coming, and it would be better for him to resign than go through that process — he chose to resign, and after that occurred, they didn't go forward,” said Rapallo.

The precedent that being out of office obviates an impeachment conviction was reinforced in 2021, when Trump was acquitted in his second impeachment trial after leaving office.

Because of that precedent, any official facing probable impeachment conviction is more likely to resign than to become the first executive officer convicted by the Senate.

"​​​​I just don't see any way they would get to 67 [Senate votes] based on what we've seen now," said Chafetz.

"Now, again, if it turns out tomorrow that some member of the cabinet has a freezer full of cash that they got from a foreign government, sure. But of course in that situation, they'd almost certainly resign or be fired," he added.

Conversely, Biden and his cabinet are unlikely to yield in an impeachment trial they can win, even if the proceedings disrupt an official's duties.

"If you're Biden, it's a short term-long term trade off, because maybe the department can get a move on with business, but the Republicans have successfully claimed a scalp and what's to prevent them from going after the next cabinet official?" said Chafetz.

And if Republicans do take the House, their leadership ranks will have their hands full controlling an ideological and outspoken caucus.

While at least two separate articles of impeachment have been filed against Biden by Republican lawmakers in the current Congress, GOP leadership has not invested political capital in those bills.

Any GOP impeachment of Biden risks being seen as a tit-for-tat over the two Democratic impeachments of Trump, and that protection could extend to cabinet secretaries.

“The Constitution doesn't provide for impeaching a cabinet secretary because you think impeaching the president is too much politically,” said Rapallo.

And dragging immigration into a constitutional controversy could backfire for Republicans.

“It's well known that the Republicans were close to agreeing on legislation related to immigration, but changed their minds and haven't been interested in solving the problem since then,” said Rapallo.

“So on one hand, to walk away from the effort to legislate, and then on the other, to go after the cabinet secretary who's charged with implementing the laws is a little rich, I would say.”  

Trump slams McConnell over lack of funding for Masters in Arizona

Former President Trump criticized Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Monday for supporting funds for GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (Alaska) reelection bid against a fellow Republican rather than directing that money to Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters’s (R) race against a Democrat.

“The Old Broken Crow, Mitchell McConnell, is authorizing $9 Million Dollars to be spent in order to beat a great Republican, Kelly, instead of $9 Million Dollars that could be used for Blake Masters, and other Republicans, that with this money would beat their Democrat opponent,” wrote Trump in a statement, referring to Kelly Tshibaka, who will face off against Murkowski in November.

Trump has endorsed both Masters and Tshibaka and called Murkowski, one of only seven GOP senators who voted to convict him in his second impeachment, “horrendously bad” and “barely” a Republican in his statement.

Murkowski is one of the more moderate Republicans in the Senate, specifically in her support of abortion rights.

A report by the Anchorage Daily News published on Thursday found that the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican PAC with ties to McConnell, funded television, radio and internet ads in Alaska slamming Tshibaka in support of Murkowski.

McConnell has endorsed the incumbent in the race, rejecting the further-right Tshibaka, who is more in line with Trump.

Trump has ramped up his criticism of McConnell in recent months, including drawing vehement pushback for saying in a recent statement that the Kentucky Republican has a "death wish," which critics said amounted to a tacit call for violence.