Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Rudy Giuliani is out of luck, and the courts are sending a message

The Rudy Giuliani defamation trial is now over.

NBC News:

Rudy Giuliani hit with $148M verdict for defaming two Georgia election workers

An attorney for Ruby Freeman and her daughter, Wandrea “Shaye” Moss, had urged the eight-person jury to “send a message” with its verdict.

$148 million total

— Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) December 15, 2023

It was a unanimous decision by an eight-person jury. Giuliani deserved punitive damages, and the plaintiffs—Fulton County, Georgia, election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss—deserve to be compensated.

The courts are saying that lying can be expensive. And Donald Trump’s fraud trial in New York is still yet to resolve (and it might send the same message).

In other news:

People were negative on the economy ahead of the 2018 midterms, because of stagnant wage growth and falling behind—the GOP got clobbered. But a year later after wage growth turned up and people felt a lot better about it. If trends continue, don’t bet against people feeling it. https://t.co/ukxpRKYmih

— Jesse Lee (@JesseCharlesLee) December 15, 2023

Neil Irwin/Axios:

What the Fed's rate policy pivot means for the economy

Why it matters: The end of the war on inflation is in sight. Barring some unpleasant economic surprises, the central bank is now prepared to take its foot off the brakes and move to a stance in which it is no longer actively trying to slow growth.

  • Importantly, the majority of policymakers are now envisioning significant rate cuts in 2024, while also envisioning the economy remaining basically solid, with low unemployment and steady growth.
  • In other words, rates will probably be coming down next year even in the absence of a severe downturn. That's a sweet spot both for financial markets and for families and businesses.
  • The cycle of monetary tightening that has whipsawed markets and the economy for the last two years is, for all intents and purposes, over.

House Republicans are secret Never Trumpers https://t.co/UURqy5FRuK

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) December 15, 2023

John Stoehr/The Editorial Board:

House Republicans ‘will regret’ voting for impeachment inquiry

An interview with the peerless Jill Lawrence.

Biden’s impeachment, which is imminent, is part of Trump’s vengeance movement. Fortunately, it’s being seen that way. Stories about it seem to have two critical features. One, that there’s no evidence linking Joe Biden to Hunter Biden’s businesses. Two, that beneath all the innuendo and conspiracy theory is an obsessive, driving force – a disgraced former president who’s still stinging from being impeached twice.

Since these impeachment proceedings are going to be based on nothing, one could say nothing will come of them – meaninglessness has no meaning. But that overlooks something important about the House GOP’s smear campaign. It represents fundamental weakness.

this is so goodhttps://t.co/XVaL3WAXSu pic.twitter.com/hshAIZsg6X

— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) December 15, 2023

Craig Mauger/Detroit News:

In court, Michigan Republicans tie false elector effort to Donald Trump's campaign

While the Trump campaign has previously been tied to the overall strategy of crafting electoral certificates in seven battleground states, the testimony Thursday described campaign staffers as being involved in recruiting attendees and running the meeting of the false electors in Lansing on Dec. 14, 2020. During that gathering, 16 Republican activists signed a document that was used to claim the then-incumbent Republican president won Michigan's 16 electoral votes.

The revelations came on the second day of preliminary examinations for six of the Republican electors as Attorney General Dana Nessel's office pursues criminal forgery charges against those whose names appeared on the false certificate.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that SCOTUS affirms the DC Cir. and upholds the use of the obstruction law, 18 USC 1512, to Jan. 6 defendants - by 5-4 or 6-3, Justice Kagan writing for the majority. I'll explain why in a blog post after I finish grading final exams!

— Randall Eliason (@RDEliason) December 15, 2023

Bolts magazine:

The Thousands of Local Elections That Will Shape Criminal Justice Policy in 2024

Counties across the nation are electing DAs and sheriffs next year. Bolts guides you through the early hotspots.

Local DAs like [Georgia’s Fani] Willis have become a key GOP target this year, as Republicans go after prosecutors who they think are standing in the way of their political or policy ambitions. New laws in Georgia and Texas give courts and state officials more authority to discipline DAs. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is challenging Trump for the GOP’s presidential nomination, has over the last 18 months removed two Democratic prosecutors from office, angry over their policies like not prosecuting abortion.

The presidential election is also pulling sheriffs into its orbit. Far-right sheriffs have allied with election deniers, using local law enforcement to amplify Trump’s lies about 2020, ramp up investigations, and even threaten election officials. One such sheriff, Pinal County’s Mark Lamb, is now running for the U.S. Senate in Arizona, leaving his office open. Over in Texas, Tarrant County (Fort Worth) Sheriff Bill Waybourn inspired a new task force that will be policing how people vote while he runs for reelection next year.

With roughly 2,200 prosecutors and sheriffs on the 2024 ballot, voters will weigh in on county offices throughout the nation next year, settling confrontations over the shape of local criminal legal systems while also choosing the president and Congress.

Bolts today is launching its coverage with our annual overview of which counties will hold such races and when: Find our full list here.

We sort of take it for granted at this point, but the breakdown of rule discipline and emergence of suspension as the one and only means of making law has been the biggest and most underwritten congressional story for going on six months. https://t.co/xV95bGNnAz

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) December 15, 2023

Bloomberg:

Mike Johnson May Be the Next House Speaker to Lose His Job

  • Conservatives warn Johnson against deals on Ukraine, shutdown
  • Lawmakers due back just 10 days before next US funding lapse

House Speaker Mike Johnson is ending 2023 with an ominous preview of what to expect in the new year: dissension in his ranks that threatens to hamstring deals on US government funding, Ukraine war aid and border policy.

It could also cost him his job.

The Louisiana Republican, elected speaker in October after GOP hardliners ousted his predecessor for making deals with Democrats, sent the House home for the holidays on Thursday after passing a bipartisan defense policy bill over strong objections from 73 ultra-conservatives.

This YouTube lecture from New York Times analyst Nate Cohn on the state of polling is excellent:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The important poll question: ‘What if Trump is convicted?’

Joyce Vance/”Civil Discourse” on Substack:

Jack Smith's Bold Move

The issue comes down to this: Is Trump immune from criminal prosecution for the rest of his life for any acts he committed while president? In other words, is he above the law? Or can he be, as Jack Smith argues, prosecuted once he leaves the White House.

The Supreme Court has never decided this issue before. And it has to be decided, because if it goes in Trump’s favor, the case is dismissed and there will be no trial. I don’t think anyone expects that will be the outcome here, although you never know with the Supreme Court. But Smith is asking them to tell Trump that immunity (and double jeopardy, an argument with even less merit than immunity) is off the table so the case can proceed to trial.

It’s too early to do horse race polling, but if you want to look at a poll, look at the ones that ask about convictions.

Would you vote for Donald Trump for president in 2024 if he is/has been - Convicted of a felony crime by a jury? Yes 25% No 59% .@Reuters/@Ipsos, 4,411 Adults, 12/5-11https://t.co/HKnYKcWUAy pic.twitter.com/mUaqD9K8xR

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) December 14, 2023

CNN:

NY appeals court hands Trump another defeat over gag order

A New York appellate court rejected Donald Trump’s challenge of the gag order in his civil fraud trial Thursday. Trump’s attorneys petitioned the court over the gag order that bars him and the attorneys from speaking publicly about Judge Arthur Engoron’s court staff.

In rejecting the challenge Thursday, the appeals court said Trump didn’t use the proper legal vehicle to challenge the gag order and sanctions.

The appellate court in another order Thursday also rejected a Trump request to allow his legal team to seek a review of the gag order by the Court of Appeals, New York’s highest court.

Trial testimony ended Wednesday after 11 weeks in court.

The parties are scheduled to file supplemental briefs in the case January 5 and return to court for oral arguments January 11 before Engoron renders a final verdict.

And on that note, keep in mind how often Trump is losing in court, except for some delay moves.

In what may be a historic hat trick, Trump lost his 3d presidential immunity case in 2 weeks yesterday--this one in E. Jean Carroll's original defamation suit against him, which goes to trial 1/15/24. 2d Cir rules he waived prez immunity. ... https://t.co/gS5KEntI3R /1

— Roger Parloff (@rparloff) December 14, 2023

On the “vibes vs. the economy” debate, Nate Cohn/The New York Times:

Vibes, the Economy and the Election

Recent positive news may put two theories on economic disenchantment to the test.

Yes, voters are upset about high prices, and prices are indeed high. This easily and even completely explains why voters think this economy is mediocre: In the era of consumer sentiment data, inflation has never risen so high without pushing consumer sentiment below average and usually well below average. This part is not complicated.

But it’s harder to argue that voters should believe the economy is outright terrible, even after accounting for inflation. Back in early 2022, I estimated that consumer confidence was running at least 10 to 15 percentage points worse than one would expect historically, after accounting for prices and real disposable income.

In that regard, consider the following headlines:

  • CNN: Dow surges to new record as Fed signals three rate cuts in 2024
  • New York Times: Is Jerome Powell’s Fed Pulling Off a Soft Landing?
  • New York Times: The Markets Are Getting Ahead of the Fed
  • CNBC: Dow rises to fresh record after more strong economic data, falling rates
  • Reuters: US economy still resilient as retail sales beat expectations, layoffs stay low

Consider also that weak Chinese economic growth is likely to depress oil demand for some time.

This is another piece of evidence to file in "election results aren't matching the assumptions people are drawing from pessimism in the polls." I'll change my tune really fast if Dems stop overperforming in specials, but I mean, even in rural Oklahoma ... something is happening. https://t.co/2LidIwdedN

— Natalie Jackson (@nataliemj10) December 13, 2023

Jill Lawrence/The Bulwark:

Impeachment Is Just Another Word for Getting Even. Thanks, GOP.

Accountability is on life support and even Jack Smith may not save it.

No facts? No problem. House Republicans plan to launch an official Biden impeachment inquiry this week—if they can wrangle enough votes from their minuscule, divided majority. Greene predicted two months before the 2022 midterms that there would be “a lot of investigations” if the GOP won the House. It’s the Democrats’ fault, she told author Robert Draper, because they started it with their “witch hunts” against Trump. She introduced an impeachment resolution against Biden the day after he took office.

House Republicans are going to impeach Biden for the high crime of many people saying they should

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) December 13, 2023

The Associated Press:

The Republican leading the probe of Hunter Biden has his own shell company and complicated friends

Interviews and records reviewed by The Associated Press provide new insights into the financial deal, which risks undercutting the force of some of [GOP Rep. James] Comer’s central arguments in his impeachment inquiry of President Joe Biden. For months, the chairman of the House Oversight Committee and his Republican colleagues have been pounding Biden, a Democrat, for how his relatives traded on their famous name to secure business deals.

Expect more stories like this now that the hypocrisy is on full display.

so many people on here who haven't owned up to: a) how wrong they were, and b) how sneeringly dismissive they were of those who ended up being right https://t.co/0xNrxuzs4B

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) December 13, 2023

Great point:

Two end-of-year pins in the House: 1) The NDAA passed with majority Dem votes. Once again the big vote is carried by the Democratic minority, just like both CRs, the debt limit, the Santos expulsion, McCarthy's removal. Jeffries wielded more power in 2023 than McCarthy or Johnson

— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) December 14, 2023

He’s right about Leader Jeffries. Then again:

Both sides more than willing to play their part here. Ds reluctantly accept what's going to happen and declare victory because a) it could have been worse and b) it denies Rs any satisfaction. Meanwhile marginal Rs are eager to embrace the L because it suits their purposes. https://t.co/6ryYqhZW3n

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) December 14, 2023

Tony Michaels and Cliff Schecter on a Trump dictatorship:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Republicans trashing our institutions

We begin today with John T. Bennett of Roll Call reporting on the GOP-lead House approving of an impeachment inquiry of President Biden.

The measure was approved 221-212, with every Republican supporting it and every Democrat opposed. One Democrat did not vote.

The impeachment resolution spells out the authorities of three involved committees, and an accompanying measure describes the GOP-run panels’ subpoena powers. GOP leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who teed up the resolution, contend the move would place the inquiry on firmer legal ground, should the Biden camp challenge any subpoenas in court. [...]

House Judiciary Committee ranking member Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., on Wednesday called the inquiry “political hackery,” adding: “This is not serious work.” And Oversight and Accountability ranking Democrat Jamie Raskin of Maryland said moments earlier that “this stupid, blundering investigation is keeping us from getting any real work done for the people of America.”

President Biden and White House aides have vigorously denied any wrongdoing. Asked last week about House GOP claims that he had interacted with his son’s foreign business associates, Biden told White House reporters, “I did not. And it’s just a bunch of lies.”

Kimberly Atkins Stohr of The Boston Globe says that the U.S. Supreme Court threatens to dismantle the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump by taking up the appeal of a case from a Jan. 6 Capitol rioter.

By taking up an appeal by accused Jan. 6 Capitol rioter Joseph W. Fischer, the court could undo the most serious federal criminal charge Trump is facing for his attempt to subvert democracy.

Fischer’s appeal stems from a charge that he, Trump, and hundreds of others involved in the events of Jan. 6 are facing: corruptly obstructing, influencing, or impeding an official proceeding. The charge comes under a federal law passed in the wake of the Enron collapse and was aimed at toughening penalties for actions including destroying, altering, or fabricating financial records. The penalties are stiff indeed: Trump and the other defendants face as many as 20 years in prison as well as steep fines if found guilty.

The language of the statute is not limited to shredding documents and the like. It contains the broad catchall that prohibits any action that “otherwise obstructs, influences, or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so.” And it has been deemed by courts to include interfering with congressional proceedings.

Adam Serwer of The Atlantic writes about the complete absurdity of the “Great Replacement” theory at a time Republicans can field Vivek Ramaswamy for the Republican presidential nomination.

Right-wing apologism for January 6 is no longer shocking, not even from Republican presidential candidates. Trumpists often vacillate between denying it happened, justifying and valorizing those who attempted to overthrow the government to keep Donald Trump in power, or insisting that they were somehow tricked into it by undercover agents provocateurs. But the basic facts remain: January 6 was a farcical but genuine attempt to overthrow the constitutional government, which many Trump supporters think is defensible because only conservatives should be allowed to hold power. [...]

Since Trump’s election, in 2016, the Great Replacement has gone from the far-right fringe to the conservative mainstream. After a white supremacist in Texas targeted Hispanics, killing 23 people in 2019, many conservatives offered condemnations of both the act and the ideology that motivated it. But over the past several years, a concerted campaign by conservative elites in the right-wing media has made the theory more respectable. By 2022, after another white supremacist murdered 10 Black people at a supermarket in Buffalo, some prominent voices on the right were willing to claim that there was some validity to the argument that white people are being “replaced.” [...]

Arab American voters, both Christian and Muslim, are withdrawing support from Joe Biden over his thus-far unconditional support for Israel’s conduct in its war with Hamas. This shift, along with a drift to the right that had already begun among more conservative segments of the Muslim community over LGBTQ rights—is an obvious example of how religious and ethnic minority groups can realign politically in unanticipated ways. Muslim voters were a largely pro-Bush constituency in 2000, prior to the GOP embrace of anti-Muslim bigotry after 9/11. So  were Hispanic voters in 2000 and 2004, and Trump showed similar strength with such voters in 2020, as well as making gains with Black voters. Many immigrants who fled left-wing or Communist regimes in Asia and Latin America—Vietnamese, Venezuelans, Cubans—lean right, much as the influx of Jewish refugees from the Soviet Union in the 1990s did. Immigrants from West Africa are often highly religious and socially conservative. And even within particular groups, there are tremendous regional, cultural, class, and educational differences—Puerto Rican voters in Chicago will not necessarily have the same priorities and values as Tejano voters living in Laredo. The far right and its admirers are too busy railing against diversity to understand that diversity is precisely why “the Great Replacement” is nonsense.

Charles Blow of The New York Times looks at some of the reasons that too many Americans are thirsty for authoritarianism.

Confidence in many of our major institutions — including schools, big business, the news media — is at or near its lowest point in the past half-century, in part because of the Donald Trump-led right-wing project to depress it. Indeed, according to a July Gallup report, Republicans’ confidence in 10 of the 16 institutions measured was lower than Democrats’. Three institutions in which Republicans’ confidence exceeded Democrats’ were the Supreme Court, organized religion and the police.

And as people lose faith in these institutions — many being central to maintaining the social contract that democracies offer — they can lose faith in democracy itself. People then lose their fear of a candidate like Trump — who tried to overturn the previous presidential election and recently said that if he’s elected next time, he won’t be a dictator, “except for Day 1” — when they believe democracy is already broken.

In fact, some welcome the prospect of breaking it completely and starting anew with something different, possibly a version of our political system from a time when it was less democratic — before we expanded the pool of participants.[...]

And while these authoritarian inklings may be more visible on the political right, they can also sneak in on the left.

The former chair of the board of trustees at the University of Pennsylvania, Scott L. Bok, writes about the negative influence of donors on university decisions for The Philadelphia Inquirer.

I advocate for free expression and the right to demonstrate, but I am deeply troubled by the hurtful rhetoric sometimes used at demonstrations.

I despair at the ability of social media to mislead, distort, and amplify such rhetoric.

But there are limits to what universities can do to address such matters. Physical safety concerns must come first, so at Penn, we dramatically stepped up our police presence — that campus has never been more closely watched. And if you walked across campus as I did numerous times this semester, most often you would have been struck by how normal life seemed. [...]

Penn has repeatedly condemned hateful speech and appropriately investigated all acts of antisemitism, pursuing every remedy within its power. In particular, it has acted aggressively in response to any vandalism, theft, violence, or threats of violence on the campus.

The challenge all universities face — and always have faced — is how to balance the desire to allow free speech with the desire to maintain order and allow all students to flourish free from bias or harassment. Chaos and violence are bad, but so are McCarthyism and martial law.

Jeannie Suk Gersen of The New Yorker asks an interesting hypothetical question: should American colleges and universities have affirmative action for men?

Despite efforts to dampen their success in admissions, women have, since the nineteen-eighties, been a majority of undergraduate student bodies. Today, they constitute nearly sixty per cent of students enrolled in college nationwide, at private and public institutions. The freshman classes of nearly all Ivy League schools are majority female. Female applicants consistently have higher high-school grades than male applicants, have completed more credits and more challenging courses, and have done more extracurricular activities. Male applicants reportedly have more trouble getting their application materials submitted (which has led Baylor to launch a “males and moms communication campaign” to help keep male applicants on track). Women also perform better than men in college, being more likely to graduate and to do so with honors. Women outnumber men in college applications by more than a third, and there are more qualified women than men in the applicant pool. [...]

At oral arguments in the S.F.F.A. [Students for Fair Admission] case, more than a year ago, Justice Elena Kagan stated aloud the open secret that, if selective colleges were to admit applicants without considering gender, the student bodies would be majority female. Justice Kagan asked the lawyer for S.F.F.A., who argued against using race in admissions, whether he thought it was lawful for schools to use gender in admissions and “put a thumb on the scales” for men in order to serve the health of university life and of society. He replied that the use of gender in admissions may be lawful even though the use of race is unlawful, because the Court does not subject gender to the same level of scrutiny that it subjects race to. Kagan observed that it “would be peculiar” if “white men get the thumb on the scale, but people who have been kicked in the teeth by our society for centuries do not.”

In equal-protection analyses under the Fourteenth Amendment, the Court has indeed allowed more leeway for using gender, but, in order to be constitutional, the use of gender must be substantially related to an important interest. The question, then, would be whether colleges’ interest in having a gender-balanced student body is so important that it justifies holding women to higher admissions standards than men. If a plaintiff brought an equal-protection challenge to the use of sex in admissions, colleges would surely have to do better than to invoke students’ desire to be on a gender-balanced campus, which may reflect their assessment of dating or marriage prospects. (Susan Dominus reported this fall in the Times that at Tulane, where last year’s freshman class was nearly two-thirds women, female students felt that “the gender ratio left them with fewer options, in sheer numbers and in the kinds of relationships available to them.”) Alexandra Brodsky, a civil-rights lawyer at Public Justice and the author of “Sexual Justice,” told me, “I’d be curious, in an equal-protection suit, what reasons a school would give for wanting a sex-balanced class. Relying on the desires of customers is not usually a justification for discrimination.” It’s also doubtful that the Court, which doesn’t consider racial diversity a compelling interest for schools to pursue, would conclude that gender diversity is an important one.

Marianne Lavelle of Inside Climate News says that, with the help of U.S. Special Climate Envoy John Kerry and his team, COP28 wasn't the total disaster that it might have been.

The United States may not have entirely won over its critics when COP28 ended Tuesday with the first statement on fossil fuels in the history of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. But the summit’s cautious final compromise text—which the United States clearly had a key role in helping to craft, say those familiar with Kerry’s team—was enough to ensure that the gathering did not blow up and end without a deal. And that, in itself, was a victory both for the United States and the much-maligned U.N. process, say a number of close observers of climate talks.

To the extent that the U.S. contributed to keeping the process alive, it was able to ensure continued progress would come out of its intensive pre-summit diplomacy with China. The world’s two largest greenhouse gas polluters worked together at Dubai to include in the summit’s final statement a number of items from the agreement they reached in November in Sunnylands, California, including language on addressing potent greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, especially methane.

Univision news anchor Enrique Acevedo pens an essay for The Washington Post defending his Univision interview with Number 45.

Joaquin Blaya, a former president of Univision who left the network 32 years ago, told The Post, “This was Mexican-style news coverage,” casting a shadow of corruption over my interviewing style and overlooking how journalists in Mexico, where I’m based, are killed more than anywhere else in the world for doing their jobs. Some Latino celebrities employed the same nativist rhetoric they decry from the far right to say “the Mexicans” were importing unscrupulous practices to meddle in U.S. elections. Never mind, I’m American, and have been working more than 20 years for some of the most prestigious news outlets in the world, my record speaks for itself.

Outdated prejudice about Mexico and its news media poses significant dangers, validating decades-old perceptions that fail to reflect the modern, vibrant and open society that defines the country today. Moreover, it underscores a striking absence of humility in the face of our own democratic challenges. Given this broader context, the irony of such false claims is glaring and concerning.

Amid intense partisanship with clearly delineated camps, my interview with Trump wasn’t crafted to convince Democrats or my colleagues in the press that Trump is an unsuitable choice. Instead, its purpose was to afford conservative Latinos the opportunity to hear directly from him without confrontation or hostility.

I didn’t even consider watching Mr. Acevedo’s interview with Number 45 until last night, which basically consisted of Acevedo asking a question and then allowing Number 45 to gish gallop his answers. That’s my problem with the interview as opposed to Mr. Acevedo or Univision wanting to create a “safe space” for conservative Latinos that admire Trump.

Finally today, Fred Kaplan of Slate reports on the possible consequences of Republicans holding Ukraine aid hostage.

The Ukrainian president had flown 5,000 miles to patch up his fraying relationship with Washington legislators. On his previous two trips, they’d practically hoisted him on their shoulders, cheering him as democracy’s great brave hope. But this time, in a series of meetings on Tuesday, the Republican lawmakers brushed him off, shrugged that the romance was over, then tacked on that hoariest of evasions: It’s not you, it’s us.

It was among the most shameful episodes of a sordid political season—and it could have dangerous consequences worldwide.

Taken by itself, the cause of Ukrainian independence—which requires arming Ukrainian troops to fight off Russia’s invading army—enjoys broad, bipartisan support. But the cause has hit a dire moment. The troops are running out of ammunition. President Biden has asked Congress for $60 billion in emergency supplemental funding to keep them going. But Senate Republicans are telling him: We won’t give you the money—we’ll block the 60-vote majority needed to pass the supplemental funding—unless you let us pass a radical immigration bill that all but locks down America’s southern border and makes it nearly impossible for migrants to apply for asylum.

Biden says he’s willing to meet the Republican demand for border tightening halfway. But the Republicans want no compromise; they demand a Senate version of a bill that the House passed earlier this year—a bill so extreme that it garnered not a single Democratic vote. And they are willing to do this even if it means the collapse of Ukraine’s defenses against Russia.

I didn’t even need to read that story, just the look on Zelensky’s face in the photo…

Everyone try to have the best possible day!

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The early legacies of the COVID-19 pandemic

We begin today with David Wallace-Wells of The New York Times citing a rather obvious underlying reason for continuing American economic pessimism: the COVID-19 pandemic. 

But in fishing for causes, an obvious contributor is often overlooked: the pandemic itself. It not only killed more than a million Americans but also threw much of daily life and economic activity and public confidence into profound disarray for several years, scarring a lot of people and their perceptions of the country, its capacities and its future.

When Americans are asked whether the country is on the right track, or whether they themselves are optimistic or pessimistic, they don’t treat the query like a trivia quiz about the last quarter’s G.D.P. growth or the Black unemployment rate or even the size of their own paychecks or stock portfolios. They are effectively responding to the therapist’s query: How are things? They answered that question according to one set of patterns, stretching back decades. And the pattern did not begin to shift only when inflation peaked in late spring 2022, or when pandemic relief was relaxed in fall 2021, or when supply-chain issues first arose earlier that year. They began answering differently in 2020, as the scale and duration of the pandemic came into view.

For decades, surveys about the economy were an accurate gauge of economic fundamentals that, practically speaking, there was little need to distinguish between the two.

That all changed in early 2020, when a significant gap opened between economic conditions and public perception...

Solomon Jones of The Philadelphia Inquirer sees the legacy of the worst of COVID-19 pandemic in the lingering violence of a stabbing of a security guard at a Macy’s in Philadelphia.

The armed rage that led to the fatal stabbing of a Macy’s security guard on Monday is an indication that the COVID-19 pandemic has given birth to yet another contagion. This time, the disease is violence. [...]

The trend seems to have begun in 2020, when cities around the world shut down in an effort to protect the public from a virus that killed at least three million people worldwide in a single year, according to World Health Organizationestimates. That year, as schools and offices closed, interpersonal guardrails like after-school programs and social services were removed. An economic downturn and a historic uptick in gun purchases occurred. The killings of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor spurred worldwide protests, and amid all of those factors, the divisive politics of a presidential election also boiled over.

Daniel Webster, the director of the Center for Gun Policy and Research at Johns Hopkins, told ABC News that 2020 was the “perfect storm,” adding that “everything bad happened at the same time — you had the COVID outbreak, huge economic disruption, people were scared.”

I’ve already expressed my belief that the COVID-19 pandemic was one of the underlying and hidden factors of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol (Jan. 6, 2021 also happened to be the day of the most single-day deaths from COVID-19 up to that point in time). Reports about everything from lingering loneliness to children left behind in school are also a part of the legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic.
America isn’t alone in suffering from the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, either (although those “lingering effects” do vary from country to country and city to city).

The editorial board of The Los Angeles Times says that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is only a victim of his own machinations.

It’s not surprising that dozens of members of the U.S. House of Representatives are choosing to leave the dysfunctional chamber rather than seek another term. The politics are toxic. The rhetoric is ugly. And it seems that members aren’t interested in doing much besides fighting the culture wars — and one another.

But we don’t believe for a minute that’s the reason former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy decided to step down at the end of the month after 17 years in Congress. After all, he helped create the hostile conditions in Congress by toadying to the hard-right Republicans in his conference by, among things, voting to challenge some of the results of the 2020 election and authorizing a baseless inquiry into impeaching President Biden.

In the end, however, McCarthy couldn’t manage the unruly conference and was deposed in October after a mere nine months in charge. His crime, according to the GOP hard-liners who orchestrated his downfall? Taking the kind of sensible action that Americans expect of their leaders. He’s no a tragic hero, though. Just a victim of the MAGA flames he fanned.

Clint Smith of The Atlantic details the radical plans that a potential second Trump Administration would have for educational policy.

Although educational policy is formed most directly at the state level, the Department of Education has $79 billion of discretionary funding that it can use as both carrot and stick, to encourage states and school districts to teach—or stop them from teaching—certain topics in certain ways. Trump’s 2024 education-policy plan promises to cut federal funding to any school or program that includes “critical race theory, gender ideology, or other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content” in its curriculum. Already, in Texas, Florida, and other Republican-controlled states, educators are being ostracized for attempting to teach parts of American history that don’t cast straight, white, Christian Americans as the primary protagonists. Teachers are being punished for engaging with the history of policies that segregated, violated the rights of, or oppressed those whose identities fell outside that group. Trump would encourage such sanctions on a national scale.

What Trump and the MAGA movement want is a country where children are falsely taught that the United States has always been a beacon of righteousness. Despite our nation’s many virtues, the truth of its past is harrowing and complicated. Slavery, Jim Crow, Indigenous displacement and slaughter, anti-immigrant laws, the suppression of women’s rights, and the history of violence against the LGBTQ community—these things sully the MAGA version of the American story. [...]

A central part of Trump’s project is to depict the presentation of empirical evidence as an attempt at ideological indoctrination. The claim that this country has prevented millions from achieving upward mobility should not be a controversial one; it reflects actual policies such as convict leasing, school segregation, and housing covenants. To Trump and his allies, however, anyone making such a claim has fallen prey to a “radical movement” that sees America as an inherently and irredeemably evil country. A professor stating that the Confederacy seceded from the Union because of slavery and racism is a member of the “woke mob,” never mind the fact that the seceding states said this directly in their declarations of secession. (Mississippi in 1861: “Our position is thoroughly identified with the institution of slavery—the greatest material interest in the world.”) An elementary-school teacher highlighting the importance of LGBTQ figures in the history of American activism is reprimanded for being part of an effort to force sexuality onto students, never mind the fact that Bayard Rustin, Harvey Milk, and Marsha P. Johnson played an indisputable role in shaping political life.

Jim Saksa of Roll Call reports on the very different political stances that religious House Democrats have from Speaker Mike Johnson.

When he was mayor of Kansas City, Mo., Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II faced a choice. As pastor of one of the city’s largest congregations, he had helped lead opposition to the legalization of riverboat gambling. It passed anyway, and some expected Cleaver would use his new office to protect the downtown waterfront from the kind of sinful business that any good Christian would find repugnant.

They were wrong. Cleaver refused to get involved. “I was not elected as the Methodist mayor. I was elected as the mayor of our largest city, and I’m not going to try to convert people to Methodism,” the Democrat explained.

Before Mike Johnson was speaker of the House, he faced a similar moral dilemma. In his hometown of Shreveport, La., a strip club was set to open, the kind of sinful business that any good Christian would find repugnant. A coalition of neighbors thought Johnson, then a young attorney just a few years out of law school, might help them fight it. [...]

Confronted with forks on the path of righteousness, these two deeply devout Christians went opposite ways. And today they follow those paths in Congress.

Ian Millhiser of Vox parses out the oral arguments of Moore v. The United States, which was argued before the Supreme Court yesterday.

The Supreme Court spent much of Tuesday morning beating up Andrew Grossman, a lawyer asking the justices to revive a long-defunct limit on Congress’s ability to levy taxes. [...]

The full array of legal issues in Moore is dizzyingly complex. To completely understand the case, someone must have a working knowledge of how tax accounting typically works, how it works for certain investors who are taxed differently than others, how the Court once read a provision of the Constitution enacted to preserve a Union between free states and slaveholders to protect investors from taxes, and why the United States amended its Constitution to restore the federal government’s ability to tax investment income. (I explain all of these details here.)

But the shortest explanation of what’s at issue in Moore is that it asks whether the Constitution prohibits Congress from taxing investment income before that income is “realized” — meaning that the investor has sold an asset for a profit or otherwise disposed of that asset.

Renée Graham of The Boston Globe is unconvinced by the “apology” of actress Julianna Margulies over her derogatory comments about Black and LGBTQ support for Jews.

During an appearance last month on “The Back Room with Andy Ostroy” podcast, the actress best known for “The Good Wife” questioned the level of support for Jews in Black and LGBTQ communities since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7 when Hamas stormed into Israel, massacred at least 1,200 people, and took more than 200 others hostage.

After mentioning Jewish support of the 1960s civil rights movement, Margulies said, “The fact that the entire Black community isn’t standing with us, to me, says either they just don’t know or they’ve been brainwashed to hate Jews.” She also castigated LGBTQ people, especially those who identify as gender nonconforming who, she said, “will be the first people beheaded and their heads played like a soccer ball on the field” in places run by extremist groups like Hamas. [...]

Every headline about Margulies claimed she apologized for her comments. She didn’t. Her podcast appearance aired Nov. 21. Only more than a week later when her remarks started getting negative traction on social media did she even say anything about them. And when she did, she shifted away from what she said to how she has worked “tirelessly to combat hate of all kind, end antisemitism, speak out against terrorist groups like Hamas, and forge a united front against discrimination.” She added that she “did not intend for my words to sow further division, for which I am sincerely apologetic.”

Her intentions are irrelevant. Her words sowed further division. But Margulies did not retract her statement that Black people “have been brainwashed to hate Jews,” as if antisemitism is as innate to us as the texture of our hair or the melanin in our skin. She reduced Black people to a monolith guided by one mind and a binding set of hateful beliefs.

Sarah DeWeerdt of Anthropocene reports about a study showing that attempts to combat climate disinformation have only very limited success.

Spampatti and his colleagues have developed six psychological interventions to combat climate disinformation. Past research has suggested that pre-emptively providing warnings about disinformation and counterarguments against it could serve as a psychological ‘vaccine,’ inoculating people to better resist denialists’ messages.

The new interventions, which Spampatti and his colleagues describe in the journal Nature Human Behaviour, are based on current research about how people develop and update their understanding of scientific information. The researchers devised messages emphasizing:

  1. The strong scientific consensus about the reality of human-caused climate change;
  2. The trustworthiness of scientists who prepare international climate reports and suggest strategies to fight climate change;
  3. Transparency about the pros and cons of climate actions;
  4. The strong moral case for climate action;
  5. The importance of carefully judging the accuracy of online information; and
  6. The positive emotions that come from climate action.

[...]

“We expected the psychological inoculation we tested to protect people from climate disinformation, because they had been identified as a promising strategy to fight disinformation,” Spampatti says.

“Unfortunately, we noted that these inoculations protect only against one piece of disinformation, but not more.” A more sustained effect would be necessary to protect against disinformation in the real world, where climate denial is plentiful.

Florantonia Singer of El País in English reports about the annexation of Essequibo, a disputed territory between Venezuela and Guyana, by Venezuela.

Two days after the referendum on Essequibo, a territory disputed between Venezuela and Guyana, the government of Nicolás Maduro is moving forward to try to enforce what was approved Sunday in a vote that registered almost no participation in the streets but which Chavismo hailed as a victory with 10.4 million voters, reawakening a crisis of credibility in the country’s electoral authorities. In a television appearance Tuesday, Maduro presented a new official map of Venezuela with Essequibo incorporated, without the disputed delimitation, during a Council of State in which he announced a series of measures and upcoming legislation to cement Caracas’ possession of the territory and its resources. Earlier, Maduro had sent a military contingent to Puerto Barima on the Venezuelan Atlantic border, close to the limits of the area under claim.

The war of narratives has begun. A few weeks ago, Guyana raised a flag on a small hill in Essequibo. On the day of the referendum, the Venezuelan Ministry of Communication released a video in which Indigenous people lowered the Guyanese flag and raised the Venezuelan flag. Maduro is now counterattacking with everything at his disposal. Via a special law announced Tuesday, he will create a new province or state in the territory, having already appointed a single provisional authority: Major-General Alexis Rodríguez Cabello, a deputy for the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), who will operate from the mining community of Tumeremo in Bolívar state, barely 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the town of San Martín de Turumbang in the disputed area. [...]

Brazil, which shares a border with both Venezuela and Guyana, has also expressed concern over the escalation of the territorial dispute. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke with both Maduro and Ali and reinforced the military deployment on the border. The Ministry of Defense increased the contingent of the Boa Vista detachment in the state of Roraima from 70 to 130 uniformed personnel. Its mission is to “guard and protect the national territory,” according to a statement from the ministry. After the Venezuelan referendum, Lula also decided to send around 20 armored vehicles to the triple border.

Finally today, we return to The Philadelphia Inquirer and Elizabeth Wellington’s celebration of the complex legacy of Norman Lear, who died yesterday at his home in Los Angeles. He was 101.

At five, I was banned from watching “Sanford & Son” after I slapped a toy out of my cousin’s hands, rolled my eyes, called him a fish-eyed fool and a heathen in my best Aunt Esther imitation.

That was the power of Norman Lear’s situation comedies on my little pop-culture psyche back in the 1970s and 1980s, when Lear’s shows dominated the primetime landscape. With shows like “Maude” and “All in The Family,” Lear introduced taboo topics like rape, incest, and abortion to America’s living rooms in a way that educated us and made us laugh. Lear died Wednesday morning at his Los Angeles home. He was 101.

Lear’s impact on the Black situation comedy was groundbreaking. From “The Jeffersons” to “Good Times,” Lear introduced modern Black life to television, when before we just had “Soul Train.” Little Black children saw ourselves in Arnold, Willis, Tootie and Michael. Songs in these shows’ opening credits were schoolyard chants. Lear proved that Black shows starring Black people had a place on primetime television, paving the way for a slew of 1990s comedies from “Martin” to “Moesha.”

It wasn’t all good in the hood. Lear’s shows were full of stereotypes. Sherman Hemsley’s George Jefferson moved on up to the East Side, but when he got there he was rude, loud, obnoxious and racist. The Evans family on “Good Times” were always struggling and broke, so much so my mother didn’t allow my sister and I to watch it because she didn’t want us to internalize that Black people never could have anything. She was also disgusted at how much of a buffoon JJ Evans (Jimmie Walker) was.

Try to have the best possible day everyone!

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Biden’s hand clearly seen in the hostage talks

New York Times:

Hamas and Israel Prepare for 3rd Exchange of Prisoners for Hostages

The Egyptian government said it had received a list of those who would be swapped. Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, said that at least one American citizen could be among them.

Another poll finds Bibi's coalition collapsing, and he trails Gantz 52%-27% in a direct head to head. Bibi's way failed; the country knows it, deeply; the only way Israel can be successful is with a new government. https://t.co/H4X4AzbOwX

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 26, 2023

NBC News:

The five 'extremely excruciating' weeks of talks that led to the Hamas hostage deal

Vast challenges remain in freeing all 240 hostages. Most of all, Hamas’ claim that it is not holding roughly 100 of the captives.

The final agreement — the outlines of which had been on the table for weeks — wouldn’t have been accepted by Netanyahu without enormous pressure from Biden, according to a senior Israeli government official.

“This deal was a Biden deal, not a Netanyahu deal,” the official said.

I'm gifting this. It tells how @POTUS got Netanyahu to reduce the number of troops Israel sent into Gaza by 2/3rds, how @VP has been a voice for fighting Islamophobia, & how the administration has been pushing back on antisemitism from the far left. https://t.co/9Te6ikqajq

— David Darmofal (@david_darmofal) November 26, 2023

Washington Post:

White House grapples with internal divisions on Israel-Gaza

The Hamas attacks and Israeli reaction have roiled the Biden team like no other issue during his presidency

The division inside the White House is to some degree between Biden’s senior longtime aides and an array of younger staffers of diverse backgrounds. But even top advisers said they recognize the conflict has hurt America’s global standing. “We’re taking on a lot of water on Israel’s behalf,” one senior official said. Still, Biden’s aides noted that his public statements have become increasingly direct on the responsibility Israel has to minimize civilian casualties and to allow aid into Gaza, even as he declines to call for a cease-fire as many liberals want.

The White House also insists it has influenced Israel’s military tactics, pointing out that more than 100 aid trucks a day on average are getting into Gaza and that Israel is now allowing in some fuel. One senior administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss secret diplomacy, said that after the United States dispatched three senior military officers in late October to advise the Israelis on strategy, they sent only about a third as many troops into Gaza as they had initially planned.

A parallel example is Build Back Better. Dems were furious when Manchin walked away from it, some wanted more outrage from Biden and even punishment. He held his fire, stayed the course, eventually got Inflation Reduction Act. A big climate change win insted of revenge & venting.

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) November 26, 2023

Sahil speaks truth.

Peter Wehner/The Atlantic:

Have You Listened Lately to What Trump Is Saying?

He is becoming frighteningly clear about what he wants.

I thought about the events that led up to the Rwandan genocide after I heard Donald Trump, in a Veterans Day speech, refer to those he counts as his enemies as “vermin.” “We pledge to you that we will root out the Communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical-left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country—that lie and steal and cheat on elections,” Trump said toward the end of his speech in Claremont, New Hampshire. “They’ll do anything, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America and to destroy the American dream.” The former president continued, “The threat from outside forces is far less sinister, dangerous, and grave than the threat from within. Our threat is from within.”

When Trump finished his speech, the audience erupted in applause.

Mediaite:

Trump Lashes Out At ‘The Atlantic’ After Brutal Article Details His Recent Rhetoric: ‘Frighteningly Clear About What He Wants’

Former President Donald Trump took aim the The Atlantic on Saturday and personally attacked its owner Laurene Powell Jobs.

“It’s so good to see how badly the THIRD RATE MAGAZINE, The Atlantic, is doing,” Trump said of the storied publication.

“It’s failing at a level seldom seen before, even in the Publishing Business. False and Fake stories do it every time! They’ve got a rich person funding the ridiculous losses, but at some point, rich people get smart also. Steve Jobs would not be proud of his wife, Laurene, and the way she is spending his money. The Radical Left is destroying America!”

This is not to denigrate Muslims in any way, but there just aren't that many of them in the electorate. Less than 1% of Biden voters were Muslim in 2020. Switching the votes of 5% of white Catholics would have much greater electoral consequences than 50% of the Muslim vote. https://t.co/U7dMrTwHHH pic.twitter.com/dKMJxYPEfn

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) November 26, 2023

Darren Samuelsohn/The Messenger:

Trump Vows to Prosecute Critics and Rivals — But it’s Not Quite That Easy

The Republican presidential frontrunner's second-term retaliation plans may be catnip for his MAGA audiences but will be far more difficult to implement in real life

Even for someone who has twice survived impeachment and who can expect to be successful in making it his top priority upon inauguration to redirect the DOJ from prosecuting him to becoming one of his biggest defenders, legal experts told The Messenger that Trump may be a bit overconfident if he thinks he could also achieve his goals by taking absolute command of the nation’s most powerful arm of law enforcement to direct at his leisure.

If he doesn’t win, problem solved.

Honestly: Until John Durham's investigation--which spent 4 years investigating even tho no crime had been committed!!!--is treated as the retaliation campaign it was no one is telling the story of how Trump retaliates.

— emptywheel (@emptywheel) November 26, 2023

Click for the entire message from George Takei. With age comes experience, at least sometimes, but it’s certainly true for Biden.

A Democrat was in the White House when my family was sent to the internment camps in 1941. It was an egregious violation of our human and civil rights. It would have been understandable if people like me said they’d never vote for a Democrat again, given what had been done to…

— George Takei (@GeorgeTakei) November 26, 2023

A reminder the House is back Tuesday, so the standard starting routine applies at noon: A Speaker pro tempore for the day is appointed, a benediction, the Speaker’s approval of the journal (previous session’s activity), The Pledge of Allegiance, and a George Santos expulsion motion.

“I believe that Trump must be questioned & confronted: for democracy, for the rights of immigrants &, simply, to do good journalism” “It is necessary to distance ourselves from what aired [on Univision on Nov. 9] & explain… what my point of view is” 👉Jorge Ramos in @Reforma pic.twitter.com/P4Za5G9T58

— José Díaz Briseño (@diazbriseno) November 25, 2023

Matt Robison on Elon Musk:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Republicans are losing elections by losing the culture war

Greg Sargent/The Washington Post:

Youngkin’s disastrous night shows the right’s culture war has fizzled

But the GOP governor’s comeuppance isn’t just about the durability of abortion rights as a political winner for Democrats. It also shows that right-wing culture-warring on education — built around a “parents’ rights” agenda limiting school discussion of race and gender — has utterly lost its political potency, allowing Democrats to respond with their own affirmative liberal cultural agenda.

Strikingly, more than $5.5 million was spent on ads about education in the Virginia legislative contests, according to data provided by the tracking firm AdImpact. While it’s unclear what percentage focused on “parents’ rights,” some Republicans modeled their campaigns on the way Youngkin turned that issue into a 2021 victory — an upset that led many pundits to declare education a political loser for Democrats even in blue territory.

Amanda Marcotte/Salon:

"I'm so tired of these psychos": Moms for Liberty is now a toxic brand Last month, Salon reported on one town's fight over a right wing school takeover — Tuesday, the resistance won big

Last month, I published an investigative report about how Moms for Liberty, a group dedicated to rewiring American education toward the far right, had taken over the board of education in the Pennridge School District, about half an hour outside Philadelphia. Moms for Liberty, a heavily funded astroturf organization linked to GOP leadership, wasn't especially subtle in its strategies, pinpointing a handful of swing districts in purple states, like Virginia and Pennsylvania, and targeting school board elections, which are usually low turnout and easy to win. Once installed, Moms for Liberty members started banning books and Pride flags, as well as protesting that teachers were "grooming" kids with "smut," which usually meant either a history book or acclaimed, age-appropriate fiction. The idea was to create moral panics around sex and race that could tip national elections towards Republicans.

Well, it backfired.

As I reported, parents in the Pennridge district eager to fight back against right-wing radicals formed the Ridge Network and got the word out, arguing to voters that the group was degrading the quality of the public schools. This week, those efforts paid off: Democrats won all five of the open school board seats in the district, wresting control away from Moms for Liberty.  

ICYMI, it also happened in Iowa. This from Bleeding Heartland was previously shared: “Progressives win, book banners lose many Iowa school board races.”

Biden: When my predecessor, the distinguished— anyway… , I stood and others stood with you shoulder-to-shoulder on the picket line my predecessor went to a nonunion shop and attacked you. pic.twitter.com/jDOh7ouqNB

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 9, 2023

Tom Bonier/The New York Times:

American Elections Are About Abortion Now

Abortion rights won big on Tuesday night. In Ohio, a constitutional amendment enshrining protections for abortion rights was on the ballot, and in Virginia, control of both chambers of the state legislature was considered a tossup, and both parties made abortion rights the central issue of their campaigns. The pro-abortion-rights measure in Ohio passed by a wide margin. In Virginia, the Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, made his proposal for a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy the central argument for electing Republicans in the state legislature. Republicans failed to win back control in the Senate and lost their narrow majority in the House of Delegates as turnout surged to historically high levels in key swing districts.

Before this week’s elections, most of the attention of the political class and the public was focused on national polls showing Donald Trump holding a lead over President Biden in the 2024 presidential contest. But it is now clearer than ever that the backlash against the Dobbs decision — and voters’ general distaste for strictly limiting abortion access — could play a crucial role in winning Mr. Biden a second term. Certainly, there will be many other major issues at play in this election, including war and voters’ perceptions of the economy. But abortion could plausibly be the deciding factor next November.

NBC News:

Ron DeSantis says it's 'out of bounds' to attack candidates' kids — except for Hunter Biden

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said he disagreed with Vivek Ramaswamy's reference to Nikki Haley's daughter.

In an interview with Fox News, DeSantis said he disagreed with Vivek Ramaswamy bringing up former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley’s daughter in a discussion about TikTok during the presidential primary debate hosted by NBC News on Wednesday night. He cautioned against dragging family members into the political fray.

“I think the kids are out of bounds. I didn’t think that was an appropriate thing to do,” said DeSantis, who has three young children.

“I keep the kids out of it for sure,” he added of his own conduct.

But out on the campaign trail, the governor does not shy from making a punchline out of Hunter Biden, 53, joking about his history of addiction and embarrassing details of his personal life that have surfaced publicly.

While Hunter Biden is an adult, so is Haley’s daughter — albeit a few decades younger than the president's son. Both, however, are politicians’ children who are not in elected office.

what a bunch of idiots https://t.co/OPEiCzpW24

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) November 10, 2023

Jacqueline Alemany/The Washington Post:

Momentum behind impeachment inquiry slows under new speaker

The inquiry stagnated during the 3-week fight to elect a new speaker. Now, James Comer has sent out new subpoenas as Speaker Mike Johnson strikes a more reserved tone.

Johnson, who told reporters that he has been “intellectually consistent” in cautioning against a rushed investigation during a news conference last week, has previously accused Biden of bribing or pressuring a foreign leader. During a Fox News appearance over the summer, Johnson accused Biden of wielding taxpayer resources to fire Ukraine’s top prosecutor to benefit his son’s business dealings — an allegation widely disputed by both U.S. and foreign officials. And in another interview on Fox News last week, Johnson said that “if, in fact, all the evidence leads to where we believe it will, that’s very likely impeachable offenses.”

But in this week’s private meeting with moderates, Johnson appeared to agree with Republican lawmakers who argued that since Biden’s polling numbers have been so weak, there is less of a political imperative to impeach him, according to Bacon and others who attended the meeting.

Oh? It was political?

I don't have an opinion on how much it has to do with Biden himself - but I just observe that you have to go back to the 1930s to find a string of midterm successes for the party of a president equal to 2021, 2022, and 2023.

— David Frum (@davidfrum) November 10, 2023

Democratic Rep. Sean Casten of Illinois on X, via Threadreader:

It's hard to explain how dysfunctional the @HouseGOP is, and the degree to which their own internal divisions are superseding every normal function of government. But I'm going to try with a short story about this week in the house. Thread: 
1. First: We operate on a 9/30 fiscal year but the (McCarthy) led house couldn't agree on how to fund prior to. They tried to just say "cut everything by 30%". That didn't pass. So they said "let's just fund at current levels for 45 days". That cost McCarthy his job. 
2. For context, when Dems had the majority we got all our appropriations done by August 1 so the Senate could finalize and POTUS could sign. @HouseGOP still hasn't done that. 
@HouseGOP 3. Also, you may recall this summer the @HouseGOP threatened to default on US debt unless we agreed to future spending rules. A deal was struck that passed the House and was signed into law to do so. The 30% cut was not consistent with that law. (AKA, it was illegal) 

Trump said this just two days ago, folks. He’s not exactly hiding the ball! https://t.co/aI3s1Vblpo

— Eric Columbus (also on Bluesky and 🧵) (@EricColumbus) November 10, 2023

Cliff Schecter:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Coming to grips with the Big Lie

Adam Wren/Politico:

Can the GOP ever come to grips with the lies of 2020?

Mike Johnson’s election, and the process getting there, showed a party not willing to address the fundamental question facing it.

Whether the Republican Party can ever reconcile its divergent response to Jan. 6 is not the next question. It’s the question defining this turbulent political moment in Washington and beyond — roiling and coursing just below the surface. These days, all roads lead back to the original lie that Donald Trump won.

They fear their voters. It’s as simple as that. 

"Out of fear...because of a false confidence...among many other misjudgments...I have opposed efforts to ban...the assault rifle. The time has now come for me to take responsibility for this failure." This is an extraordinary statement from @RepGolden https://t.co/urBZmmzTaj

— Jamison Foser (@jamisonfoser) October 27, 2023

Good for him. 

Liam Donovan/New York Times:

Matt Gaetz Created a Win-Win Situation for Himself

Within weeks, many of those same hard-line conservatives mounted a procedural blockade of government funding bills, forcing Mr. McCarthy to choose between the shutdown they sought to compel, and the bipartisan end-around that would lead to his removal as speaker. While Mr. McCarthy’s reliance on Democratic votes was cited as evidence of noncompliance with the January deal, the blockade and ensuing mutiny was a practical acknowledgment that what is achievable under the current balance of power in Washington had proven insufficient to hard-liners.

In the end, the inside influence they had sought for the past decade was less fulfilling than the outside clout that had secured that power.

Liam predicts the same destructive cycle could begin anew and all too soon. Any Speaker has to work with the Senate and the White House, both controlled by Democrats, even if the Senate is just barely.

If you’re pressed for time, here’s a summary: #Mike_Johnson is a sincere far-right extremist kook. And now he’s #Speaker and 2nd in line for the Presidency.

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) October 26, 2023

Daily Beast:

Democrats Say They Have No Choice but to Work With Extremist New Speaker

Democrats are appalled by much of Mike Johnson’s record. But they say they have to find a way to look past his extremist beliefs.

In reality, Johnson’s history on the issue is far from irrelevant. The 2020 election remains incredibly important to the most powerful person in the GOP—Trump—and Emmer’s certification vote stance was no small reason why Trump issued a scorching statement torpedoing his speaker bid.

Johnson’s role in trying to overturn the election was a signal to GOP voters and Republicans in Congress that he was sufficiently “conservative” and aligned with their values.

Should Johnson remain the Speaker through the 2024 election, his approach to the 2020 election—which saw him discount the will of voters and an abundance of facts about the fairness of the election in order to keep Trump in power—will be anything but a relic of the past.

"The National Rifle Association is bleeding money and members, according to a financial audit obtained by CREW." https://t.co/EqvMbsuv1B

— Jill Lawrence (@JillDLawrence) October 26, 2023

The scandal sheets on Mike Johnson:

Politico Playbook:

What’s in store for Speaker Johnson?

MAGA MIKE’S LOOMING GAVEL WOES — House Republicans’ three-week-long nightmare is over. But for new Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, the nightmare is just beginning.

While it was all smiles and standing ovations from his GOP colleagues yesterday, the new leader is about to run smack into the tough reality that he just got promoted to the worst job in Washington.

That includes the pleasure of dealing with the egos, rivalries and demands of a bitterly divided GOP Conference … of negotiating with Democrats eager to flip the House and see him fall flat on his face … and let’s not forget about the public scrutiny that’s already ratcheting up on a man who has probably received more attention in the past 48 hours than he has in his entire career.

Let’s unpack some of the heartburn ahead …

Punchbowl News:

How Johnson will get squeezed

Brand-new Speaker Mike Johnson has two brewing problems — House GOP moderates and Senate Republicans.

House Republican moderates overwhelmingly backed Johnson, ending several weeks of internal fighting. But they’re warning they aren’t going to blindly follow a far-right agenda.

The vow from center-right Republicans will have an impact across a range of issues, but there are two areas in particular worth watching — government funding and the potential impeachment of President Joe Biden.

“We have to speak up,” Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) told us. “We’re a strong voice as majority makers. Now’s the time to express it with a new speaker.”

In the aftermath of Johnson’s election, many House Republicans exuded a kumbaya vibe, as unrealistic as that seems.

Yet there are lasting scars from the last three weeks. The bitter clashes between top Republicans — with threats in particular aimed at GOP lawmakers, their families and staffers from some supporters of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) — aren’t going to be forgotten anytime soon.

Politically vulnerable Republicans, notably the 18 members in districts Biden won in 2020, have already faced a slew of tough votes.

I don't think in my life I've ever seen an editorial getting an official correction because it was stupid https://t.co/cGx8xAJApi

— Will Bunch (@Will_Bunch) October 25, 2023

Jennifer Rubin/Washington Post:

Republican radicalization takes its toll

The findings in this year’s Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) annual American Values Survey are a disturbing reminder that, regardless of the political fortunes of four-time-indicted former president Donald Trump, the MAGA movement he spawned has radicalized millions of Americans.

The poll, conducted in partnership with the Brookings Institution, surveyed more than 2,500 Americans on everything from trans rights to QAnon to racism.

The survey’s great value comes as a warning about the radicalization and alienation of a segment of the major parties’ followers. “Today, nearly a quarter of Americans (23%) agree that ‘because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,’ up from 15% in 2021,” the survey found. “PRRI has asked this question in eight separate surveys since March 2021. This is the first time support for political violence has peaked above 20%.” A full third of Republicans believe this, compared with 13 percent of Democrats. Meanwhile, QAnon believers have jumped from 14 percent of Americans to 23 percent, with Republicans twice as likely as Democrats to buy into the extreme conspiracy theory.

A sage Dem texts, basically: Repubs are gonna elevate a speaker who tried to overthrow the election and backs an abortion ban - the two issues we won on in 2022 “What are they thinking ?”

— Jonathan Martin (@jmart) October 25, 2023

Matt Robison interviews Barbara McQuade:

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Dark Brandon jumps all the way out

We begin today with Aaron Blake of The Washington Post wondering what the GOP majority in the House will do now to get a Speaker elected not that Jim Jordan jumped out and then back into the race for House Speaker.

Thursday brought one of the most embarrassing episodes yet in the GOP’s arduous 16-day quest to find someone — anyone — who can get the votes to be House speaker. With the realization that that might not be possible at this juncture apparently setting in, Republicans set about forging a temporary fix that seemed potentially agreeable to much of the House: giving acting speaker pro tempore Patrick T. McHenry (R-N.C.) more power to conduct vital business while everyone figured out a longer-term solution. [...]

That Jordan would even attempt something so haphazard and immediately doomed speaks to the fact that he’s running out of ideas. And he’s surely not alone in that distinction.

To be sure, there are very understandable reasons this wasn’t workable, personal feelings about McHenry aside. Some opposed the idea of a temporary speaker on constitutional grounds. Some Jordan opponents probably feared this could keep his bid alive, by giving him a couple months of McHenry potentially working with the Democrats (whose votes would help install him) to run against. And you can bet more than a few Republicans viewed this, correctly, as the capitulation to Democrats that it would be. [...]

Apparently the old, unworkable dynamics were preferable to that potential new dynamic. The problem is that the old ones are going nowhere and probably just became more unworkable.

Thanks to Greg for subbing on short notice yesterday!

Peter Baker of The New York Times notes that when President Biden was asked a question on Air Force One about the House Speakership fiasco, Dark Brandon jumped all the way out (as noted by Kerry Eleveld).

President Biden was on his way back from a high-stakes diplomatic mission to Israel on Wednesday night when a reporter on Air Force One asked him if he had any thoughts about Representative Jim Jordan’s predicament in the House.

“I ache for him,” Mr. Biden said, putting his hand on his heart.

Really?

“Noooo,” he said with a laugh.

No sympathy there. “Zero,” he said. “None.” [...]

As much of a struggle as it was for Mr. Biden to work across party lines with Kevin McCarthy when he was speaker, a Jordan speakership would be a nightmare in the view of the president’s aides. Mr. Jordan, dubbed a “legislative terrorist” by former Speaker John A. Boehner, a fellow Republican, has long preferred bomb throwing to deal making and could push for Mr. Biden’s impeachment, government shutdowns and other moves at odds with the White House.

Mr. Biden has resolutely refused to comment at any length about the chaos in the House, sticking by the old view that it is up to Congress to determine its own leadership, not the executive branch. Still, he has alluded to his attitude before. When Mr. Jordan jumped into the speakership race a couple of weeks ago, Mr. Biden said he would work with whoever won. “Some people, I imagine, it could be easier to work with than others,” he said, “but whoever the speaker is, I’ll try to work with.”

David Graham of The Atlantic examines how Sydney Powell’s guilty plea in the Georgia RICO elections case against Number 45 (and 18 co-conspirators) might shape the overall case.

First, the plea simplifies the Chesebro trial. Powell and Chesebro had asked for speedy trials, rather than waiting a few months for a more standard trial. Though both are attorneys, their roles were very different. Powell, flashy and drawn to animal prints and chunky jewelry, became a household name in the weeks after the election because she often spoke to the press about the election scheme, though her role seems to have been mostly lower-level and operational. Chesebro, by contrast, was little known and had no public profile but worked closely with John Eastman and other lawyers on the broad contours of the paperwork coup. [...]

Second, Powell’s plea moves forward the Coffee County portion of the racketeering case. According to prosecutors, the conspirators arranged to unlawfully access and copy data from voting machines in the Southeastern Georgia location. Powell is the second person to plead guilty to involvement there, following Scott Hall, an Atlanta bail bondsman who copped a plea in September. Their testimony may help prosecutors target Jeff Clark, a little-known Justice Department official who attempted to lead a coup inside the department, getting Trump to appoint him acting attorney general, and to convince state legislatures to overturn election results. (He has pleaded not guilty.) [...]

Third is the question of how other people accused in the case might react to Powell’s plea. Prosecutors likely hope that it might convince some of the lower-level defendants to conclude that their chances of beating the rap are low but also that cooperating now might produce favorable terms. Agreements to testify would, in turn, presumably make it easier to mount a successful case against the biggest names in the case—Trump, of course, as well as the attorneys Eastman and Rudy Giuliani, and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. A trial for these defendants likely won’t occur until next year.

David E. Sanger of The New York Times analyzes last night’s Oval Office address by President Joe Biden about the wars in Ukraine and Israel.

Throughout the speech, Mr. Biden toggled between the two crises, making the case that if America does not stand up in both conflicts the result will be “more chaos and death and more destruction.” That argument reflects his certainty that this is the moment he has trained for his entire political career, a point he often makes when challenged about his age.

His sense of mission explains why, at age 80, he has in the past eight months visited two countries in the midst of active wars. But at the same time he has married his public embraces with private cautions to American allies, while carefully keeping American troops out of both conflicts — so far. He seems determined to prove that for all the critiques that the United States is a divided, declining power, it remains the only nation that can mold events in a world of unpredictable mayhem.

“When presidents get into their sweet spot you usually see and hear it, and in the past few weeks you have seen and heard it,” said Michael Beschloss, the historian and author of “Presidents of War,” which traces the rocky history of Mr. Biden’s predecessors as they plunged into global conflicts, avoided a few, and sometimes came to regret their choices.

Whether Mr. Biden can bring the American population along, however, is a more unsettled question than at any moment in his presidency, and was the backdrop of his Oval Office address.

Lawrence Freedman of The New Statesman studies some of the reasons for intelligence failures.

Intelligence failures happen when pieces of information that should be picked up are not or are picked up and then misinterpreted. If they are interpreted correctly but not acted upon then it becomes more of a policy failure. When Israel was caught out by the Hamas attack of 7 October this was both an intelligence and policy failure. Despite the famed professionalism and tenacity of Israel’s intelligence agencies, they did not notice signs of the coming attack by the Palestinian militants, and despite the equally famed security focus of the government, it was complacent about the situation in Gaza. This was not the first time the country had been caught out, in different circumstances but for similar reasons. Fifty years earlier, on 6 October 1973, Israel was surprised as Egyptian and Syrian forces embarked on a sudden offensive and broke through its defensive lines.

Perhaps still the most fateful and studied example of a successful surprise attack is the Japanese strike against the American Pearl Harbor naval base on 7 December 1941 that opened the Pacific War. In a landmark study, the historian Roberta Wohlstetter introduced the thought that the problem was not a lack of information – the Americans were after all reading Japanese diplomatic and military traffic – but that those bits that in retrospect warned of trouble to come were lost in the background “noise” of masses of material that turned out to be irrelevant. [...]

This is why the problem facing intelligence analysts is often described as one of “joining the dots”: seeing a pattern in disparate pieces of information that point to the danger ahead. This is always going to be a difficult exercise because the information is often incomplete, ambiguous, contradictory and confusing. To make sense of it all analysts need a working hypothesis – we can call it a “construct” – against which the incoming evidence will be tested, and its reliability judged. If the construct is too strongly held, the risk is that only information that fits with it will be highlighted, while that which does not is disregarded...

Haaretz Editor-in-Chief Aluf Benn looks at the specific reasons for the Israeli intelligence failure to foresee the brutal attack by Hamas on October 7.

This was the mission planned by the Hamas commanders, the mission for which they trained, armed and equipped their people, as they collected intelligence for the operation and identified the time when Israel’s alertness would be particularly low, at the end of the holidays. They kept their extensive plans from leaking and pulled off a perfectly executed deception: The Israel political and military leadership, from Benjamin Netanyahu on down, was convinced that Hamas was deterred and mainly focused on economic growth and not preparations for an invasion.

Hamas’ military build-up was not kept completely out of sight. Its terrorists trained right out in the open, in broad daylight, and the Israeli side that was monitoring this activity saw infantry units being built and training for combat in Gaza.

But the IDF assumed that the Hamas elite force was being built to fight the IDF, Nukhba versus Golani, and interpreted it as a sign of Hamas becoming more establishment and transforming from a terrorist organization into a regular army. Israel failed to grasp that the confrontation with the IDF would only be a secondary mission, while the main effort would be a mass slaughter of civilians in their homes and at a large outdoor event, all through the area, and all at the same time.

Israeli intelligence and the IDF was working with very wrong “constructs”, more or less...which doesn’t remove Hamas’s responsibility.

Georg Fahrion, Christoph Giesen, and Christina Hebel of Der Spiegel look at the alliance between Beijing and Moscow.

Moscow, for its part, is making no attempt to play down its close ties with China. On the contrary, having the world's second-largest power on its side is an invaluable asset for Russia. At most, Moscow officials would like to avoid giving the impression of increased dependence on Beijing, even if the facts clearly speak a different language.

Xi and Putin stage their summits to look like meetings of equals. And the two autocrats appear to get on quite well. Putin addresses Xi as his "dear old friend," who in turn has called Putin his "best friend." They have awarded each other honorary doctorates from their respective alma maters and – on the periphery of international summits – celebrated birthdays together on several occasions: in 2013 in Bali over vodka and sausage, and in 2019 in Tajikistan with ice cream. [...]

But beyond their similar backgrounds, they share an overarching political goal: that of breaking U.S. dominance. Russia and China see themselves as pushing back against Washington's "pursuit of hegemony," while "the friendship between the two countries has no limits, there are no 'forbidden' areas of cooperation." That's from the text of a joint statement from February 4, 2022, adopted shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when Xi received his guest of honor Putin for the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

Finally today, in spite of the overall results of the Slovakian parliamentary, Lubos Palata of Deutsche Welle locates a very bright light in the those elections.

Before the election, the anti-corruption OLANO party of former Prime Minister Igor Matovic had joined forces with a number of smaller parties to form the OLANO and Friends coalition.

When all the votes were counted, it had come away with almost 9% of the vote and was the fourth-largest grouping in parliament. This was far more than most polls had predicted in the run-up to the election.

Another surprise was that a record six Roma had been elected to the 150-seat Slovak parliament. Four of the six belong to OLANO and Friends; two to the largest opposition party, Progressive Slovakia. [...]

Straight after the election, the Slovak police investigated whether electoral fraud or bribes had been behind the phenomenal results. There have in the past been attempts to buy Roma votes.

However, over two weeks after the election, no evidence of such fraud has been presented.

Matovic called the allegations absurd. "We just ran a good campaign," he told Slovak media.

Everyone try to have the best possible day!

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Sending a message that MAGA can’t hear but can’t ignore

Natalie Jackson/National Journal:

Either 59% or 22% of Republicans want a speaker loyal to Trump. Which is it?

The same pollster yields wildly different responses by changing the question format.

The items on the trait list selected by two-thirds or more of Republicans as important were generic leadership traits—“strong leader,” “trustworthy,” “ethical,” and “intelligent”—while items directly about the politics of the speakership, including the Trump-loyalty item, were chosen by less than a third of Republicans.

The preference for generic over political items is an indicator that even Republicans aren’t paying a ton of attention to the specific issue. The Economist’s poll also showed that only 28 percent of Republicans were paying “a lot” of attention to McCarthy’s removal, and while 3 in 4 Republicans had heard of McCarthy and could give an opinion on him, around 4 in 10 hadn’t heard of the alternatives—Scalise or Rep. Jim Jordan.

Jim Jordan won’t automatically sink the GOP without campaigning against what he stands for, because, well, most people don’t know who their Senators are.

On the other hand, Jordan is easy to campaign against, because of what he stands for. And a campaign against what he stands for will happen. Just not yet.

Jim Jordan's impeachment "inquiry" isn't fooling many Americans. In the new @CNN poll 64% say this is all about politics and not an objective investigation. pic.twitter.com/lryrqsjSfa

— Geoff Garin (@geoffgarin) October 17, 2023

Don Moynihan/Substack:

A "legislative terrorist" tries to become Speaker Jim Jordan as a symptom of the deinstitutionalization project

What are the factors that make for a good Speaker of the House? Surely it involves the ability to manage factions, and to understand and protect the institution that you lead.

Whatever the criteria, Jim Jordan fails to meet them. His rise as a candidate signals how the Republican Party has shifted focus from governing to deinstitutionalization.

The Office of Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks has released the following statement:https://t.co/7l2EkLagx4 pic.twitter.com/R8mUPQ6RRW

— Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, M.D. (@RepMMM) October 18, 2023

Read it in full, it’s amazing. And bad for MAGA.

John Burn-Murdoch/X/Twitter via Threadreader:

Some quick thoughts on why large parts of the mainstream media keep slipping up on Gaza/Israel (and why it was the same at times with Covid): The main reason is a failure to keep pace with modern news gathering techniques, but there’s more. 
With the proliferation of photos/footage, satellite imagery and map data, forensic video/image analysis and geolocation (~OSINT) has clearly been a key news gathering technique for several years now. A key news gathering technique *completely absent from most newsrooms*. 
Obviously not every journalist should be an OSINT specialist, just as not every journalist is a specialist in combing through financial accounts, or scraping websites, or doing undercover investigations. But any large news org should have *some* OSINT specialists. 

Good thread on media rushing to judgment, more at the link.

Asymmetry between the major parties fries the circuits of the mainstream press. If you admit we have one normal party and one in the "other" category, a lot of consensus practices in journalism melt. Finding a new consensus is not easy. Thus: moderate Republicans must still live. https://t.co/tx70FFv7ML

— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) October 17, 2023

New York Times:

In Tel Aviv, Biden’s Embrace of Israel Came With a Gentle Warning

In a rare wartime visit, President Biden paired his support for Israel with a plea for caution not to let overwhelming grief or anger drive the country to go too far.

In a way, Mr. Biden flew to Israel on Wednesday to give the whole country a hug, to say how much America grieves with Israel and stands by Israel and has Israel’s back. But with the hug came a whisper in the ear as well, a gentle warning not to give into the “primal feeling,” not to let overwhelming grief or overpowering anger drive the country to go too far as he believes America did after Sept. 11, 2001.

David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:

Biden’s Israel Trip Was a Gamble That’s Already Paying Off

Humanitarian aid is finally entering Gaza, Israelis felt supported, and Netanyahu is unlikely to disrespect the U.S. president again any time soon.

The response of the Biden team in the wake of the explosion and fire at the hospital was calm, compassionate and resolute.

They determined to proceed with the trip. The White House announced the summit with regional leaders would be postponed. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, whose extraordinary shuttle diplomacy following the Hamas attack on Israel has been a diplomatic master class stated, “All civilians, Israeli and Palestinian, must be protected. Deeply saddened by the explosion at the Al Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza. As @POTUS said, “The United States stands unequivocally for the protection of civilian life.”

The tenor of the Blinken statement illustrated yet another challenging aspect of the Biden mission. He sought to both show support for Israel, and to seek to temper the Israeli response to the terrorists’ atrocities to ensure it was consistent with international law and that humanitarian concerns of both Israelis and Palestinians would be given priority.

There will be an address to the nation form the Oval Office tonight.

Alex Burness/Bolts:

“I Don’t Think They Care”: Virginia Is Slow-Walking the Fix to a Wrongful Voter Purge

With elections weeks away, state officials admitted improperly removing some people from voter rolls. Local advocates say the state is doing too little, too late to remedy the harm.

Even after Virginia’s delayed acknowledgment, it took the state two additional weeks to reinstate Shelton onto voter rolls. She found out Monday when she checked her registration status on the state’s site.

Shelton says neither state officials nor her county registrar have reached out to tell her that she has been reinstated. “I haven’t heard anything from anyone. I just happened to be checking online,” she said. “If I wasn’t checking, I would not have known, and I would keep on assuming I was denied.”

There is little time before Virginia’s Nov. 7 elections, which will decide control of the legislature and other local offices; half of the early voting period is over, and the deadline to ask to vote by mail looms next week.

Voting rights advocates warn that Virginia is doing too little, too late to stave off confusion and correct its costly mistake in the lead-up to Election Day.

They say they don’t even know how many people the state has reinstated so far and how many remain improperly purged, since the state is sharing little information. “They’re very tight-lipped about what they’re doing now, how this happened, and how they’re going to rectify it,” says Sheba Williams, who helps formerly incarcerated people regain their rights as the founder of the Richmond-based nonprofit Nolef Turns. “I don’t think they care.”

Reporter Yanqi Xu did some good journalism. Rather than respond to her findings, Jim Pillen went on the radio and said that her work wasn't worth reading because of where she came from. How embarrassing. Infuriating. Sad. My column: https://t.co/qv3w9MMbpG

— mattwynn (@mattwynn) October 17, 2023

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Politics during a time of war

David Makovsky/Times of Israel:

The trust Biden built with Israelis doesn’t come with a blank check

The depth of the US president's commitment impressed ordinary Israelis but an ongoing Gaza war could test ties
This may have been one of the most devastating weeks in Israel’s history, but it also could mark a fundamental turning point between the Israeli public’s relationship with US President Joe Biden.

Israel has had emotional moments of connection before with foreign leaders at times of great shock. One came when Jordan’s King Hussein kneeled before grieving Israeli families after a crazed Jordanian soldier killed seven Israeli schoolgirls. Another came when President Bill Clinton met with Israeli high school students after four suicide bombings, two of them on Tel Aviv buses, during a single nine-day period in 1996. These were not standard political meetings, but intimate encounters between a grieving society and a foreign leader who they came to see as a trusted friend for their words and actions. This week may be another.

Biden’s three sets of White House remarks – first over the weekend, then a forceful statement on Tuesday expanded upon in remarks to American Jewish leaders on Wednesday – were effective for different reasons. They had an extraordinary and immediate impact inside Israel. A commentator on Israel’s right-wing Channel 14 apologized to Biden on-air for questioning his commitment to Israel in the past, saying this was the “moment of truth.” Huge billboards sprung up on Tel Aviv’s Ayalon Highway declaring “Thank you, Mr. President” and quoting from his speech. Public reaction, judging from Israeli TV and social media, ranged from grateful to ecstatic.

Simon Rosenberg/”Hopium Chronicles” on Substack:

The President’s Speech On the Terror Attacks in Israel - Yesterday, the President gave his first extended set of remarks on Hamas’ barbaric attacks on Israel. His remarks have been widely praised. Many have called it the finest hour and finest speech of his Presidency. Do watch. The remarks are only about 10 minutes long. The video is below and you can find a transcript here.

Holy moly. Superseding indictment against Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) claims the then-chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee “willfully & knowingly combined, conspired [to] act as an agent of...the Government of Egypt” (h/t @kyledcheney)https://t.co/LI7zxjeKM4

— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) October 12, 2023

Jonathan V Last/The Bulwark:

Biden Gets 10/7 Right

Another crisis and another solid response from POTUS.

Our hearts may be broken, but our resolve is clear.

There’s more. You can read the rest. You should read the rest.

Here are some things Biden did not do:

  • He did not tweet out threats.

  • He did not call people dogs.

  • He did not alienate any of our allies.

  • He did not endorse war crimes.

  • He did not criticize any of his domestic political opponents.

Just objectively speaking: Is there anything more you could want from an American president at a moment like this? Because if there is, I can’t think of it.

Joe Biden has done the job about as well as anyone—Republican or Democrat—could have hoped.

Bruce Hoffman/The Atlantic:

Understanding Hamas’s Genocidal Ideology

A close read of Hamas’s founding documents clearly shows its intentions.

How many Israelis, or Jews, or anyone else for that matter, have read the 1988 Hamas Covenant or the revised charter that was issued in 2017? With 36 articles of only a few paragraphs’ length each in the former, and 42 concise statements of general principles and objectives in the latter, both are considerably shorter and more digestible than the 782-page original German-language edition of Mein Kampf. Moreover, unlike Hitler’s seminal work, which was not published in English until March 1939, excellent English translations of both the original Hamas Covenant and its successor can easily be found on the internet.

Bruce Hoffman is a professor at Georgetown University. He is also the Shelby Cullom & Katharine W. Davis Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations and the George H. Gilmore Senior Fellow at the U.S. Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center.

This is not a pretty or relaxing read.

When Trump attacked Netanyahu at a FL presidential campaign rally, the remarks made global headlines But it wasn’t news to Trump insiders who say he hasn't forgiven Netanyahu for blindsiding him 4 four days after Election Day by congratulating Biden https://t.co/AfktZuIKbw

— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) October 12, 2023

Jerusalem Post:

Poll: Majority blames gov’t for Hamas massacre, says Netanyahu must resign

An overwhelming majority of 86% of respondents, including 79% of coalition supporters, said the surprise attack from Gaza is a failure of the country's leadership.

The survey, which polled 620 Israeli Jews from across the country, also found that a majority of respondents believed Netanyahu should resign following the conclusion of Operation Swords of Iron.

A slim majority of 56% said Netanyahu must resign at the end of the war, with 28% of coalition voters agreeing with this view, and  52% of respondents also expect Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to resign.

As I have noted, expecting Israelis to rally around Netanyahu the way it happened here after 9/11 is a misread of the situation and a projection of American politics onto a different society.

The House Republican Conference is a mess. Complete and utter mess. They are no closer to picking a speaker. They are a month away from a shutdown. Israel is asking for aid, which needs to pass in the next few weeks. They are completely lost. And have no idea how they will get…

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 12, 2023

Patricia Murphy/Atlanta Journal Constitution:

They can’t run their caucus. How can Republicans run a country?

It would be tempting to compare the House GOP caucus to the Mickey Mouse Club. But at least the Mickey Mouse Club had a leader. House Republicans are nowhere close to being able to say the same.

It’s been a week and a half since a group of eight disgruntled Republicans ousted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. But after days of closed-door caucus meetings and secret ballot votes this week, Republicans are further away from choosing a new speaker than the day McCarthy was booted…

In the same period of time that the House has been leaderless, Hamas launched a deadly massacre against Israel, with more than 1,000 Israelis dead and at least 22 Americans killed. Israel responded by bombing Gaza, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken traveled to the Middle East with the United States’ hostage specialist to seek the return of Americans held there…

The only things House Republicans have managed to do in response are fight amongst themselves, gavel the chamber into session for seven minutes, and take Nancy Pelosi’s office away from her. It hasn’t been pretty.

A bipartisan solution is available, but Republicans aren’t ready yet.

What’s happening in the House has exposed what the Republicans are: selfish, chaotic, stupid, unable to count and totally uninterested in helping members of the general public who haven’t sent them money recently.

— Mark Jacob (@MarkJacob16) October 13, 2023

Here’s an interesting pair of articles regarding Wisconsin:

Associated Press:

2nd former Wisconsin Supreme Court justice advises Republican leader against impeachment

Former Justice Jon Wilcox told The Associated Press that there was nothing to justify impeaching Justice Janet Protasiewicz, as some Republican lawmakers have floated because of comments she made during the campaign about redistricting and donations she accepted from the Wisconsin Democratic Party.

“I do not favor impeachment,” Wilcox told AP in a telephone interview. “Impeachment is something people have been throwing around all the time. But I think it’s for very serious things.”

New York Times:

Wisconsin Republicans Retreat From Threats to Impeach Liberal Justice

Republicans had floated the idea of impeaching Janet Protasiewicz, newly seated on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, before she could undo the party’s legislative gerrymander. But on Thursday, they backed off.

Wisconsin Republicans signaled on Thursday that they were retreating from their threats to impeach a recently seated liberal State Supreme Court justice, Janet Protasiewicz, before the newly left-leaning court could throw out the gerrymandered legislative maps that have cemented the G.O.P.’s hold on power in the state.

Robin Vos, the powerful Republican speaker of the State Assembly, said at a news conference in Madison that he would not seek to remove Justice Protasiewicz based on the argument he and fellow Republicans had been making for two months — that statements she made calling the maps “rigged” during her campaign for office this year compelled impeachment if she refused to recuse herself from a case challenging them.

Now, Mr. Vos said, the focus would be on what Justice Protasiewicz does “in office.” He said that if the court ruled against the Republican-drawn maps and other conservative causes, he would appeal its decisions to the U.S. Supreme Court. Impeachment, he said, remained “on the table” but was not something Republicans would pursue now.

It’s very hard to know what’s bluster and what’s a plan—or intimidation.

LOL Steve Scalise losing his speaker bid over steaks at Cap Grille would be the most #ThisTown way to go down. https://t.co/xTdppHXaBZ

— Jennifer Bendery (@jbendery) October 12, 2023

New York Times:

Republicans Choose a New Speaker Nominee, Then Quickly Undercut Him

Multiple lawmakers refused to honor their party’s internal selection of Steve Scalise, continuing the chaos over the speakership with no end in sight.

Republicans used to consider themselves the orderly party, the one that assiduously adhered to the rules and respected the will of the majority. But the traditional rule book has been thrown out the window when it comes to the extraordinary tumult in the House.

In what would have been unthinkable in the past, numerous House Republicans on Wednesday refused to honor the results of their internal election of Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana for speaker — historically a given. They threatened a mutiny on the House floor that had factions of the party in open conflict amid the unrelenting chaos on Capitol Hill.

Republicans are, in fact, the party of refusing to accept election results. They are nihilists and insurrectionists. And it’s on full display in the House. But there is a way out, unlikely though it may be. This is from the Washington Post:

Hakeem Jeffries: A bipartisan coalition is the way forward for the House

House Republicans have lashed out at historic public servants and tried to shift blame for the failed Republican strategy of appeasement. But what if they pursued a different path and confronted the extremism that has spread unchecked on the Republican side of the aisle? When that step has been taken in good faith, we can proceed together to reform the rules of the House in a manner that permits us to govern in a pragmatic fashion.

The details would be subject to negotiation, though the principles are no secret: The House should be restructured to promote governance by consensus and facilitate up-or-down votes on bills that have strong bipartisan support. Under the current procedural landscape, a small handful of extreme members on the Rules Committee or in the House Republican conference can prevent common-sense legislation from ever seeing the light of day. That must change — perhaps in a manner consistent with bipartisan recommendations from the House Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress.

In short, the rules of the House should reflect the inescapable reality that Republicans are reliant on Democratic support to do the basic work of governing. A small band of extremists should not be capable of obstructing that cooperation.

No specifics here, just a statement of principle. Still, getting important bipartisan bills on the floor for a vote would be a step forward.

This is one of the most clarifying pieces I have read about all that is happening. https://t.co/7i4QV76W2I

— Juliette Kayyem (@juliettekayyem) October 12, 2023

Bolts Magazine:

Kentucky Activists Step In to Deliver on the Promise of Voting Rights Restoration

After the governor restored hundreds of thousands of people’s rights in 2019, a coalition led by formerly incarcerated Kentuckians is working to inform people of their rights.

The outlook changed dramatically for Kentuckians with felonies in 2019, when Democrat Andy Beshear entered office with what he called a “moral responsibility” to help others like Malone. Two days after his inauguration, Beshear issued a sweeping executive order to automatically restore voting rights for people convicted in Kentucky of nonviolent crimes once they finish all parts of their sentence, including parole or probation. The order instantly restored voting rights to about 180,000 Kentuckians and sliced the state’s disenfranchised population in half.

But in practice, this massive expansion of voter eligibility has not translated into a wave of newly-enfranchised Kentuckians actually heading to the polls. In the 2022 midterm election, three years on from the executive order, only about 7 percent of people whose voting rights were restored by Beshear’s order actually cast ballots, according to the Kentucky Civic Engagement Table, a voting rights organization. That’s compared to 42 percent of the overall electorate.

Part of the blame, Kentucky’s advocates say, lies with a Beshear administration that did little to notify people affected by the order. This inaction has inspired Kentuckians like Malone to step in and inform people who are eligible to vote but may not realize it. Their project has kicked into higher gear recently, ahead of a critical November election that, as I reported last month, could lead to a reversal of Beshear’s order and a return to blanket disenfranchisement of anyone convicted of a felony.

A coalition of activists and nonprofit organizations have been using public records and word of mouth to identify people whose rights were restored, traversing the state to tell those people they have the right to vote and to encourage them to exercise it. In addition to door-to-door canvassing, this coalition scours social media, meets people in barber shops and churches, in parks and county jails, and at public events like this Lexington festival.