Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: We all saw it coming. Now resign or be impeached (again).

Facebook and Instagram have banned Donald Trump, and Twitter has frozen his account. Sen Schumer and Speaker Pelosi have called for the 25th Amendment, or failing that, impeachment.

Elaine Chou and Betsy DeVos have resigned (too cowardly to invoke the 25th?). And Donald Trump is sorry as the House moves to impeach.

Welcome to Friday. 

WSJ editorial board:

Donald Trump’s Final Days

The best outcome would be for him to resign to spare the U.S. another impeachment fight.

Adam Davidson/Twitter:

I woke up furious. I have received so much anger from old friends at NPR and the NYT for warning them, telling them, and, yes, sometimes publicly tweeting about how their coverage is normalizing Trump and his followers, legitimizing their lies and downplaying the crisis.  
Yesterday's crisis was created by Trump and his followers. And yesterday showed that many journalists are willing to state that some actions by an elected leader are unacceptable. But they will return to institutional cowardice.

☀️Punchbowl AM — 🚨House Dems are moving rapidly toward impeaching ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ again. It will easily pass the House. Pelosi is furious. Question is will Senate Republicans flip. Noon House Dem call today. pic.twitter.com/3TCY0p4Xuq

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) January 8, 2021

“That is the overwhelming sentiment of my caucus,” from her presser yesterday.

Elaine Chao's resignation, and her husband Mitch McConnell's break with Trump bring to mind what Ruth Ben-Ghiat, authoritarian expert, and author of "Strongmen" calls "The phenomenon of elite defection in the end, when their personal safety is in peril."

— Jane Mayer (@JaneMayerNYer) January 7, 2021

WaPo on LARPing (live action role play):

Internet detectives are identifying scores of pro-Trump rioters at the Capitol. Some have already been fired.

As he strolled past gold-framed portraits of past Congressional leaders, one rioter who stormed the Capitol in a pro-Trump mob on Wednesday wore a red Trump hat, a commemorative sweatshirt from the president’s inauguration and a lanyard around his neck.

When a photo of him went viral, it didn’t take Internet sleuths long to realize that the lanyard held his work badge — clearly identifying him as an employee of Navistar Direct Marketing, a printing company in Frederick, Md.

On Thursday, Navistar swiftly fired him.

He’s not alone among the rioters who wreaked havoc in Congress. While police and the FBI work to identify and arrest members of the mob, online detectives are also crowdsourcing information and doxing them — exposing the rioters to criminal prosecution, but also more immediate action from their bosses.

We need to keep saying this: Democracy reform has to be the top priority for 2021. A fascist minority has used our political system to achieve disproportionate influence, powered by zero-sum demonization. This should never happen again.

— Lee Drutman (@leedrutman) January 7, 2021

USA Today editorial:

Invoke the 25th Amendment: Donald Trump forfeited his moral authority to stay in office

Our View: By egging on a deadly insurrection and hailing the rioters, the president's continuance in office poses unacceptable risks to America

This month, time is short, and Trump retains considerable support among congressional Republicans. Shamefully, even after Wednesday’s insurrection, 139 representatives and eight senators backed Trump’s efforts to overturn the will of the voters in Arizona and Pennsylvania.  

That leaves the 25th Amendment, which sets out procedures for replacing an unfit president.  

That sound you hear isn't just Democrats cheering, it's the air going out of tomorrow's GOP clown show in Congress. The Fools on the Hill have picked the wrong cause and bet on the wrong horse. #GASenateRaces #SeditionCaucus

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) January 6, 2021

EE News:

Biden climate team says it underestimated Trump's damage

Some climate moves can't happen until Biden officials remedy those deficiencies, a senior transition official said, because "those have been very carefully directed budget cuts to the very parts of the [EPA] that are going to be necessary to get rid of [Trump's] outrageous rollbacks."

For instance, the official said, EPA's research laboratories have been hollowed out, and its science advisory boards have been depopulated. At the operational level, each of Trump's rollbacks has shuffled the staff and funding that had been in place to carry out regulations.

The EPA workforce has shrunk by more than 600 people since the beginning of Trump's term, another source familiar with the agency review process said.

That's on top of the agency's moves to restrict the kinds of public health research that EPA can use for regulations, and its watering down of the social cost of carbon, the government's metric for analyzing the benefits of emissions cuts.

Joe Scarborough went off on Capitol police live on MSNBC: “You opened the fucking doors for em!” pic.twitter.com/4Ydd4Au8HN

— philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) January 7, 2021

NY Times:

Trump Is Said to Have Discussed Pardoning Himself

The discussions occurred in recent weeks, and it was not clear whether he has brought it up since he incited supporters to march on the Capitol, where some stormed the site.

In several conversations since Election Day, Mr. Trump has told advisers that he is considering giving himself a pardon and, in other instances, asked whether he should and what the effect would be on him legally and politically, according to the two people. It was not clear whether he had broached the topic since he incited his supporters on Wednesday to march on the Capitol, where some stormed the building in a mob attack.

Mr. Trump has shown signs that his level of interest in pardoning himself goes beyond idle musings. He has long maintained he has the power to pardon himself, and his polling of aides’ views is typically a sign that he is preparing to follow through on his aims. He has also become increasingly convinced that his perceived enemies will use the levers of law enforcement to target him after he leaves office.

Answer to a q asked by many: It is unclear if acting secretaries count if 25th Amendment is invoked. Best if Pence had a majority of all the Cabinet, incl them, w a majority of confirmed secretaries. Remember, too, Congress can quickly designate another body instead of Cabinet!

— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) January 7, 2021

KHN:

In Los Angeles and Beyond, Oxygen Is the Latest Covid Bottleneck

It’s gotten so bad that Los Angeles County officials are warning paramedics to conserve it. Some hospitals are having to delay releasing patients as they don’t have enough oxygen equipment to send home with them.

“Everybody is worried about what’s going to happen in the next week or so,” said Cathy Chidester, director of the L.A. County Emergency Medical Services Agency.

The mastermind behind the implementation of the Muslim Ban has thoughts on how he would stand up to Trump now https://t.co/ntQAWAUU0M

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) January 7, 2021

History will not be kind.

Greg Sargent/WaPo:

Democrats are drafting new impeachment articles. Inaction is increasingly untenable.

Some Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee are circulating drafts of new articles of impeachment directed at President Trump for his role in inciting the violent mob assault on the Capitol, a Democratic aide tells me.

It’s unclear whether these will get a vote, or whether they’re intended to pressure members of Trump’s Cabinet to seriously consider removing Trump via the 25th Amendment. Judiciary Committee Democrats have already signed a letter urging Vice President Pence to proceed with that process.

And Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who will be senate majority leader in the new Congress, has now called for the 25th Amendment to be invoked, adding in a statement: “If the Vice President and the Cabinet refuse to stand up, Congress should reconvene to impeach the president.”

The new articles of impeachment circulating among House Judiciary Democrats argue that Trump committed high crimes and misdemeanors and violated his oath to defend the Constitution and faithfully execute the office of the presidency by inciting Wednesday’s violence.

💯 For those of us who have covered Trump since 2016, it is hard to overstate how utterly inevitable and unsurprising yesterday’s insurrection felt. There was this amazing — disturbing — video we produced of racism and violence at Trump rallies. 👇(1/3) https://t.co/FCUwFmwdmH

— Ashley Parker (@AshleyRParker) January 7, 2021

Max Boot/WaPo:

Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy have led Republicans to disaster. They must go.

In 2016, Never Trumpers predicted that by nominating an ignorant and egomaniacal bigot, the Republican Party would lead the country and itself to ruin.

The consequences have proved far worse than even President Trump’s opponents could have predicted. Who, after all, could have imagined that more than 360,000 Americans would die during Trump’s last year in office because of his catastrophic mismanagement of a pandemic? Or that the U.S. Capitol would be invaded by a mob of Trump supporters?

But the political consequences for the Republican Party have not been as dire as they should have been. Until now.

Trump seems to have surrendered his ferocious effort to hang onto power after Congress formally accepted Biden's victory but the nation’s government remained in disarray following a mob attack on the Capitol that struck at the heart of American democracy. https://t.co/PFfNX4dE8x

— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) January 7, 2021

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A Democracy, If You Can Keep It

“Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan”. - John F Kennedy

Aaron Astor on this NYT “How Joe Biden Won the Presidency” piece:

Good piece of reporting overall. Takeaways:

  1. Biden himself was more important to the campaign's direction than generally thought
  2. Twitter isn't real life
  3. The pandemic "helped" bc it underscored Biden's already-developed "healing" theme
  4. GA>NC>FL

"We won, and it was because of what my folks did" is so much better than "we lost and it's because of what you folks did".

Joe Biden will be the 1st candidate to win 51% of the vote against an incumbent president since... FDR.

— Jesse Lehrich (@JesseLehrich) November 8, 2020

Jonathan Chait/New York:

The End of an Error

This country was always better than Donald Trump.

Trump has been fanatical on the subject of portraying his shocking election in the cloak of an imagined popular mandate. It is why he instructed his press secretary to tell farcical lies about his inaugural crowds, why he has circulated misleading maps showing the vast land areas occupied by his supporters, and why he has depicted his enemies as an elite and alien force. They needed to depict Trump as the true representative of the volk.

In a strange way, liberals needed to believe this, too. The shock of Trump’s election provoked a crisis of self-confidence for his opponents. Humans have an innate need to believe events with profound importance must have profound causes. Trump’s success must reveal some vast and terrible secret. They — Trump’s America — must be, if not more numerous, then at least more authentic, bound together by a secret bond inaccessible to the rest of us. Trump benefitted from polling errors both in 2016 and 2020 that imbued him with a mystical aura, a wizard possessing a secret connection to the heartland that was invisible to the elite.

The simple truth is that was all a mistake — a ghastly, deadly mistake, the toll of which will linger for decades. The precise causes have all been exhumed: bad decisions by Hillary Clinton, an easily manipulated press corps, the FBI, the GRU, the Electoral College sorting out the votes just so.

Sunday night update on Biden's leads: GA: 10K AZ: 17K NV: 34K PA: 43K His lead over Trump nationally is over 4.4 million and rising. If states had all counted their mail-in ballots early, this election would've been called Tuesday night and wouldn't be seen as all that close.

— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) November 9, 2020

More from Aaron:

I keep coming back to how hard it is to unseat an incumbent President. Ultimately it was Trump himself who flubbed the Presidency away. Each misstep added up. Not one single incident - a bunch of failures on pandemic and Floyd protests pushed enough non-Twitter people away.
 
There absolutely was a reservoir of support for Trump that could have carried him over the top - every incumbent carries it (think of Ford nearly winning 1976; W in 2004 & Obama 2012 each beating their poll numbers in the end). So Biden had to take advantage of each Trump error. 
This is especially true for a challenger running on a "restoration" campaign and not on a "new direction" theme. It would be more important to get all anti-Trump voters to vote than to create whole new groups of supporters who might flake out in the end. JOMD helped on that end. 

We were fighting demagoguery, thuggery, and authoritarianism. Where were you? https://t.co/lmkG3hgZ6P

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 8, 2020

Politico:

‘This f---ing virus’: Inside Donald Trump’s 2020 undoing

How Biden prevailed and Trump fell short in an unforgettable election, according to conversations with 75 insiders.

Trump was perplexed. The economy was strong. The president had built an enormous political infrastructure and was raking in hundreds of millions of dollars. That month, Trump’s campaign conducted a $1.1 million polling project showing him leading prospective Democratic challengers even in blue states such as Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.

“Sir, regardless, this is coming. It’s the only thing that could take down your presidency,” Parscale told the president.

Trump snapped.

“This fucking virus,” Trump asked dismissively, according to a person with direct knowledge of the exchange, “what does it have to do with me getting reelected?”

That was exactly the attitude Joe Biden expected from the president. And Biden saw his task as unambiguous.

Create a contrast. Follow the scientists whom Trump ignored. Wear a mask, halt public events and reinvent campaigning to avoid putting people in harm’s way.

I could write jokes for 800 years and I'd never think of something funnier than Trump booking the Four Seasons for his big presser, and it turning out to be the Four Seasons Total Landscaping parking lot between a dildo store and a crematorium. pic.twitter.com/P45HV1daD9

— Zack Bornstein (@ZackBornstein) November 8, 2020

Daily Beast:

As the nation is in a fit of laughter that may never stop over the Trump campaign press conference that was, through a hot potato game of incompetence, held not at Philadelphia’s swank Four Seasons hotel but at the Four Seasons Total Landscaping company’s parking lot next to a porn shop, it was only fitting that Kate McKinnon’s Rudy Giuliani made a stop at the Saturday Night Live “Weekend Update” desk.

“Did you see my press conference today?” McKinnon’s Giuliani greeted Update co-anchor Colin Jost. “It was at the Four Seasons. Fancy!”

“I’m glad I made it to the show on time,” he continued. “First I went to 30 Rocks. That’s a granite quarry in New Rochelle.”

Four Seasons Total Landscaping, near the adult book store, across from the cremation center. Got it.

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) November 8, 2020

History is going to be absolutely brutal on some of these people.

— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) November 6, 2020

Garry Kasparov/NY Daily News:

The damage Donald’s done: How Trump’s ongoing tantrum against democracy hurts America

The election is over at last, called decisively for Joe Biden after four days of extreme care and caution in the democratic process. Unsurprisingly, the sitting president’s response is to attack that process with baseless accusations. For someone who talks so much about law and order, Donald Trump never wants it to apply to him. He cares little for what is legal and not at all about what is right.

I have spent much of my life at the chessboard taking the measure of people under tremendous stress while trying to manage my own. When we’re under pressure, we show our true colors. Sometimes we rise to the challenge to find character and resources we didn’t know we had. Or we collapse, unable to deal with the rush of emotions as the clock ticks down.

With time ticking away on his presidency on Thursday night, Trump cracked under the pressure. He’d managed to keep quiet for two days as the returns slowly came in, but as the results in key states tipped toward a Biden victory, he could control himself no longer and took to the podium.

What followed was Trump reduced to his purest self, a lying, self-centered bully who has finally been punched in the nose. The result was called “the most dishonest speech of his presidency” by CNN expert Daniel Dale, no small achievement.

While the margin was not what pre-election polls suggested, statistically it is quite the achievement for Biden. He beat a 20+ person primary field. Came back after losing IA+NH+NV. And then became the 1st man to defeat a sitting president since 1992.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 7, 2020

Daily Beast:

WATCH: Cheering, Honking Erupts Moment Biden is Declared Winner

As Joe Biden was declared the 46th president at 11:30 a.m. ET Saturday, the sound of cheering, horns honking and champagne bottles popping broke out in streets across the county.

I’ve lived in NYC my whole life and I’ve never seen anything like this pic.twitter.com/KVZakF7F5n

— Jessica Valenti (@JessicaValenti) November 7, 2020

It wasn’t just the general elation, it was celebrating the new heroes, the USPS:

Okay this one got me 😭 pic.twitter.com/C0Cghj984f

— 🦛 Peter Koltak 🦛 (@PeterKoltak) November 7, 2020

That happened every time a postal truck drove by.

Everyone in Manhattan going absolutely apeshit every time a USPS truck drives by is the exact energy I need today pic.twitter.com/adFlsCkr08

— your idiot friend (@dcousineau) November 7, 2020

A lot of Tim Alberta today for his excellent sources:

The Election That Broke the Republican Party

By lashing themselves to the president’s desperate conspiracies of fraud, GOP officials have undermined their own legitimacy.

Never has the unprecedented been so utterly predictable.

At the conclusion of a campaign that exceeded their expectations in almost every sense — picking up House seats, thwarting an outright Democratic takeover of the Senate, running competitively in every presidential battleground state — Republicans could have walked away from 2020 with some dignity intact. They could have conceded defeat to Joe Biden, celebrated their hard-fought successes elsewhere and braced for the battles ahead

But that was never going to happen. This is Donald Trump’s party — at least, for another 76 days — and no Republican who hopes to remain relevant after he’s gone was going to deny him the bloody farewell he’s been building toward.

Did we really think the president worked so diligently these past eight months to create an environment conducive to allegations of mass voter fraud, only to stop short of alleging mass voter fraud? Of course not. Even if the president had been swept in every swing state, and by big margins, he was always going to cry foul. That he lost such close contests — and lost them in a style so unfamiliar to so many voters — only made his reaction all the more inevitable.

This might seem like a small thing, but I just saw a stat that in Georgia’s 7th district (which includes big Asian suburbs like Duluth), 41% of Asian American voters were first-time voters. That’s huge! Add that to the celebration of the amazing work that happened in GA ✨

— abolition is possible! ~franny (@fannychoir) November 7, 2020

The Bulwark:

Those Obama-Trump Counties

What it means that the president held most of them.

Since Trump’s victory in 2016, some Democrats have concluded that the relationship is not worth repairing since these former blue strongholds are simply the home to racist deplorables. That has been a mistake. As we argue in our new book, Trump’s Democrats, citizens in these communities admire Trump not primarily because of defects in their personal character. Rather, they like Trump for reasons that are more cultural than psychological.

After living in three blue strongholds that flipped in 2016, we found that many were Trumpy well before Trump arrived on the national political stage. Some of these communities’ most beloved Democratic leaders are brazen, thin-skinned, nepotistic, and promise to provide for their constituents by cutting deals—and corners, if needed. This is partly because their political culture has been shaped by a working-class honor culture that prizes strong men and a tradition of boss-style politics that is more transactional than ideological.

These citizens also have strong loyalties to hometowns that are confronting serious social and economic problems. Unlike the Proud Boys, most Trump Democrats take more pride in their hometown than their skin color. And while the extent of Trump’s success among black and Latino voters this week won’t be understood until the exit polls have been reweighted—and maybe not even then—just looking at some of the places where he performed well at the polls suggests that his appeal cannot be reduced to white nationalism.

You want to know how much the Navajo Nation dislikes trump? 1. of the 85,000 registered voters on Navajo 76,000 voted. 89% turn out 2. Of those 76,000 voters 74,000 voted for Biden & 2,000 for Trump 3. Biden’s current lead in Arizona sits at about 40,000 Ya’ah’teeh MFs

— Len Necefer, Ph.D. (@lennecefer) November 7, 2020

Kristine Phillips and Kevin Johnson/USA Today:

'Vulnerable to prosecution': When Trump leaves White House, presidential 'cloak of immunity' goes away

"The short answer is that once he leaves the office, his cloak of immunity, actual or implied by (Justice Department guidelines), will disappear," said David Weinstein, a former Florida federal prosecutor.

The Justice Department has a long-standing policy that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted for criminal offenses. Former special counsel Robert Mueller cited the policy when investigators elected not to make a determination on whether Trump obstructed justice during the investigation into Russia's interference in the 2016 election.

But that immunity is for actions he took while in office, and "it stops there," Weinstein said.

The most significant threats against Trump once he leaves office are brewing in his hometown, New York City.  

That means no presidential pardon.

A man wearing a Puerto Rican flag tosses paper towel over the fence toward the White House. “Never forget,” he said. pic.twitter.com/tZkalqgB2D

— Samantha Schmidt (@schmidtsam7) November 7, 2020

More work to do:

@DemFromCT Please see the garbage coming out of the NE govs office in response to a respectful organized social media campaign by docs begging for help as the pandemic rages here. Notably, he singles out only the female docs. Despicable. Please don’t let this go unnoticed. https://t.co/NHvPfWkH1r

— Fearless Girl (@FearlessGirl33) November 8, 2020

📍False characterization. We *are out here saying to people to celebrate at a distance and wear masks. Outdoors=better. Masks=better. Much more distance=best. Hotels, bars, + indoor restaurants are big problems. It’s why Floyd protests didn’t cause big spikes but Sturgis did. https://t.co/MVULPV5C2m

— Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician) (@jeremyfaust) November 8, 2020

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A simple election, a simple choice. Three more days to make it.

AP:

Election emerges as referendum on race relations in America

Omari Barksdale, a Black man, watched with alarm as the toll of the country’s racial injustice mounted. People of color bore the brunt of pandemic-related job losses. Police shot and killed Breonna Taylor inside her Kentucky home, and a Minneapolis police officer pressed a knee into George Floyd’s neck for nearly eight minutes as Floyd gasped, “I can’t breathe,” in his final moments.

The convergence of the pandemic, joblessness and police brutality has forced the U.S. to confront its centuries-old legacy of systemic racism this year. And for Barksdale and many Black Americans, it’s turned next week’s presidential election into a referendum on the future of race relations, an opportunity to take steps toward healing or the potential of a deeper divide.

In some ways this race is simple. Most voters like Biden. Most voters don't like Trump. https://t.co/XpCDpfJ1u1

— Philip Bump (@pbump) October 30, 2020

Amazing. Youth vote in Texas up more than 600 percent. https://t.co/d7WQmwmYH7

— Vanita Gupta (@vanitaguptaCR) October 30, 2020

Charlie Cook/National Journal:

Don't expect a contested election

The cone of uncertainty has narrowed considerably. Now, the question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide.

The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.

I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago.

Any way you slice it, these are pretty good leads, considerably higher than the 3.2-point national margin that Hillary Clinton had over Trump in the RCP average on Oct. 29, 2016. When all the votes were counted, the margin ended up being 2.1 percent.

The narrow margins could also cause the networks/cable channels to take longer than usual to call the solid Republican states, instead of doing them just after poll closing.

— Nathan Gonzales (@nathanlgonzales) October 30, 2020

Ryan Matsumoto/The Hill:

Why Biden could actually win Texas

The biggest political realignment of the 2016 election was a shift based on education. Trump made big gains with white voters without a college degree, allowing him to crack the “Blue Wall” and win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The flipside, however, was that Clinton made big gains with white voters with a college degree, especially in Sun Belt states where they had historically been pretty Republican.

In Texas, this political tradeoff was a net negative for Republicans. Although Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016, this was a substantial underperformance compared to Mitt Romney’s 16-point margin in 2012, John McCain’s 12-point margin in 2008, and George W. Bush’s 23-point margin in 2004.

In Texas, the counties with the highest percentage of college graduates are large suburban counties in the major metropolitan areas (Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio). One key example is Collin County, which includes the upscale northern Dallas suburbs of Plano, McKinney, and Frisco. After voting for Romney by 32 points in 2012, it voted for Trump by 17 points in 2016. Two years later, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz only carried the county by 6 points in his re-election bid against Democrat Beto O’Rourke.

In our polls the second half of this week we've been pretty consistently finding (modest) late movement toward Biden rather than the other way around

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 30, 2020

President (Florida) Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 45% 10/28-10/29 by Public Policy Polling (B) 941 V NOTE: partisan (D) poll Woof woof! Can I have a treat? Poll #135692 #ElectionTwitter

— Stella 2020 (@stella2020woof) October 30, 2020

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux/FiveThirtyEight:

Trump Is Losing Ground With Some — But Not All — White Christians

So is Biden’s plan working? Are white Christians, including white evangelical Protestants, who have been among Trump’s most loyal supporters, actually abandoning the president for Biden?

The answer depends on which white Christians you’re looking at.

Despite Biden’s claims that he can appeal to white evangelical Protestants, there really aren’t any signs that Trump is losing support among this group. But Trump may have reason to worry about his level of support among white Catholics. Politicians and the media typically pay less attention to these voters during election season, but white Catholics are especially important to watch this year because they’re a sizable group — and they’re concentrated in Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Trump won white Catholics handily in 2016, but there are signs that his hold on this group is slipping. That’s doubly worrisome for the president because white Christians are declining as a share of the population overall. And if overall turnout is high and he loses some support from white Catholics without making up the difference among other groups, Trump could be in trouble — even if he overwhelmingly wins white evangelicals again.

NBC-Marist poll: North Carolina president: Likely voters Joe Biden 52% Donald Trump 46% North Carolina Senate: Likely voters Cal Cunningham (D) 53% Thom Tillis (R) 43%

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 30, 2020

USA Today:

Poll: Most Americans disapprove of Trump's decision to hold massive campaign rallies during COVID-19 pandemic

It's the most stark stylistic difference between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden: The incumbent has surrounded himself with thousands of supporters at dozens of rallies while the Democratic challenger is literally keeping his distance.

But as Trump and Biden embrace strikingly different approaches to campaigning during the coronavirus pandemic, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds that nearly two-thirds of likely voters prefer Biden’s low-key strategy to Trump's raucous fanfare.

Nearly six in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump's decision to continue to hold large rallies during the pandemic, according to the poll, while nearly 64% approve of Biden's decision to jettison big events in favor of much smaller gatherings.

This was a fairly weird day for polling with a lot of volume but relatively few high-prestige polls ... but it's hard to find anything much with a favorable trendline for Trump. https://t.co/9AeTKX5o0O

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2020

Tom Nichols/USA Today:

Why this conservative voted for Biden and you should too: Trump is a morally defective man

I'm a conservative and former Republican who did not vote based on policy. Neither should you. The 2020 election is about the moral future of America.

Don’t get me wrong: As a conservative and former Republican who has already voted for former Vice President Joe Biden, I could create an entire inventory of issues, even without the lightning strike of the pandemic, where I think Biden is a better pick for president than another four years of President Donald Trump. From budget deficits to nuclear arms control, I could easily make the case for Biden, even if I might concede that I would prefer a few of Trump’s policies (such as cutting government regulations and increasing defense spending) over any Democratic administration.

But I did not vote in this election based on policy. Neither should you. The election of 2020 is about the moral future of the American nation, and so I voted for a good man with whom I have some political disagreements over an evil man with whom I share not a single value as a human being. Trump is the most morally defective human being ever to hold the office of the presidency, worse by every measure than any of the rascals, satyrs or racists who have sat in the Oval Office. This is vastly more important than marginal tax rates or federal judges.

Battleground polling of all voters - white, Black, Latino found the child separation issue badly hurts Trump. Because it was immoral and unethical. https://t.co/MB6wZitu8B

— Matt A. Barreto 🇵🇪 ⚽️ (@realMABarreto) October 29, 2020

Will Bunch/Philly.com:

Trump’s politicized Supreme Court has lost legitimacy. 2021’s Dems, do something!

We don’t yet know what will happen after Tuesday when the voting stops and the serious counting starts, nor is the Supreme Court’s role in determining the final outcome cast in stone — as dramatized later in the week when Kavanaugh again surprised the legal scholars by shifting gears and siding with the court’s remaining liberals to not — for now — limit the vote counting here in Pennsylvania or North Carolina, two other key states.

But even before the election is decided, we’ve already seen enough to know that Republicans have essentially politicized the nation’s highest court to a level where the judiciary can no longer be expected to fulfill its primary constitutional function, to serve as a balance and to check any abuses of power by the other two branches, the presidency and Congress. The faint echoes were there when five GOP-appointed justices twisted legal logic to halt the 2000 vote counting and declare George W. Bush the 43rd president, then ratcheted up to a volume of 11 when democracy-hating Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell used brute authoritarian logic to steal Supreme Court seats on either end of the Trump presidency. That’s all been against a drumbeat of rulings that have enhanced a warped notion called “corporate personhood,” while empowering billionaire donors and making it harder for historically oppressed people to vote.

All of this is causing policy wonks, including a handful of thinkers on Capitol Hill, to ask if it’s time for a radical overhaul of a court whose size and exact mission weren’t really spelled out when the Constitution was drafted in 1787.

There were a lot of people who told me not to bother with a persuasion strategy targeted at (what I saw as) a margin of gettable Republicans and right-leaning Indy’s. “We’re too polarized,” they said. I think it was worth bothering. Victory is in the margins. @RVAT2020 https://t.co/a35G5J5JWi

— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) October 30, 2020

Persuasion for the win.

See, this is why you can't infer much about how early voting from party alone. In Florida, Ds currently have only a 2-point edge (D 40/R 38/I 22) in early + absentee voting. But if the partisan splits are as below, it would translate to Biden being ahead 56-39 with those voters. https://t.co/IYMfdmwD2A

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2020

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: 10 days to go. Eye on the prize.

WaPo:

America is poised to enter into its worst stretch yet of the pandemic

The nation nears a record-breaking daily number of coronavirus cases.

The current surge is already considerably more widespread than the waves from last summer and spring. On Thursday, the number of cases topped 70,000 for the first time since July.

The unprecedented geographic spread of the current surge makes it especially dangerous, with experts warning it could lead to dire shortages of medical staff and supplies. Already, hospitals are reporting shortfalls of basic drugs needed to treat covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

And it’s not simply a matter of increased testing identifying more cases. Covid-19 hospitalizations increased in 38 states over the past week and are rising so quickly that many facilities in the West and Midwest are already overwhelmed. The number of deaths nationally has crested above 1,000 in recent days.

Further indication that voters may be starting to tune out the Trump show. https://t.co/ffFDxNlHHO

— David Lauter (@DavidLauter) October 23, 2020

FiveThirtyEight:

Who Won The Last Presidential Debate?

We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the candidates took the stage.

Most respondents went into the debate with a clear candidate preference, and that didn’t really change. The debate also didn’t have much of an effect on who respondents thought would win the presidency, although fewer people said the race was a toss-up (14 percent, compared to 16 percent before the debate). The share who thought Biden had a better chance of winning increased from 43 percent to 46 percent, though both those changes are well within the poll’s margin of error.

Lots of data now to suggest youth vote highly motivated this election. Using @TargetSmart's TargetEarly data 18-29 y/o share of early vote up 31% from 2016, a remarkable thing. Youth much bigger slice of a much larger early vote pie. Not sure many saw that coming. (Thread)

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 23, 2020

Upshot:

Not the huge win Trump needed. 

For Mr. Trump, even a draw would have been a blow to his chances. He trails by nearly 10 percentage points in national surveys, and although he still has a chance in the most crucial battleground states, like Florida and Pennsylvania, his path to an Electoral College victory remains narrow. With just 11 days to go, there aren’t many obvious opportunities remaining for him to change the attitudes of voters.

Maybe the post-debate coverage will focus on something that could help the president in certain battleground areas, like Mr. Biden’s comments about transitioning away from the oil industry. But the president had his own potentially damaging comments, such as his reaction to separating children from their parents at the border. Maybe there will be another big news event over the final stretch. (It was at this point in the 2016 campaign — with 11 days to go — that the F.B.I. director James Comey sent a letter to Congress about new evidence in the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails.) Or maybe things will just naturally tighten on their own, which happened after the third debate in 2016, even before the Comey letter and even though Mrs. Clinton won the post-debate instant polls after the final debate.

But if the polls do not tighten significantly over the final stretch, Mr. Trump will be left in an unenviable position. He will once again be left to hope for a large, systematic error in the polling, this time dwarfing the one that barely got him to victory four years ago in a much closer race.

Here's why this case is so important: https://t.co/dkTynJ4IKF Voting experts think the vast majority of ballots rejected for signature mismatch are actually valid. https://t.co/bjHZUkiYH5

— David A. Graham (@GrahamDavidA) October 23, 2020

Scott Detrow:

Hi. It me, the campaign reporter who also spent several years literally only reporting on Pennsylvania and fracking. There are a LOT of things us national reporters are oversimplifying and dumbing down here. Hold onto your butts for a thread. 
-Fracking – more accurately the energy economy that has sprung up around it -- has been a real boost to the state, particularly Western Pa. Pittsburgh has become a Houstoneque energy hub. 
-It’s always been controversial and many Pennsylvanians have been skeptical – particularly in the vote-rich eastern half of the state. And as both Dem and GOP governors under-regulated, voters wanted more scrutiny. 

"If you want to know why the GOP sued in Clark over mail ballots: The Dems lead 108,000 to 38,000."https://t.co/9De3fV0Pjt

— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) October 23, 2020

UPDATE: Judge denies temporary restraining order request by Trump campaign, Nevada Republicans to stop Clark County mail vote countinghttps://t.co/X9DeNNS1qw

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) October 23, 2020

David Rothkopf and Bernard Schwartz/Daily Beast:

Never Forget the Particulars of Trump’s Epic Homestretch Meltdown

From calling fallen soldiers ‘suckers’ to refusing to commit to transfer of power, he’s run the strangest, weakest, and most un-American campaign in history.

Forget Russiagate. Forget the Muslim ban. Forget Charlottesville. Forget Hurricane Maria. Forget attacking our allies and embracing dictators. Forget gutting environmental protections. Forget children in cages. Forget Putin in Helsinki. Forget the racism and the sexism, the stories of abuse and of tax fraud. Forget the obstruction of justice and the impeachment. Forget even the failure of leadership that initially caused the COVID crisis and its economic aftershocks.

In fact, forget the first 44 months of the Trump presidency. Bad as they were, the worst in the history of the American presidency, you don’t need them to make the case that Trump must be defeated on November 3. Just focus on the last few weeks, Trump’s meltdown in the homestretch of the campaign.

Dems are deluding themselves if they think rural white voters aren’t going to turn out. It’ll be through the roof. To me, the biggest remaining question mark is rural *nonwhite* turnout - esp. in FL/GA/NC/TX.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 23, 2020

Alexander C Kaufman/HuffPost:

At Last, Joe Biden Leaned Into Climate

Polls overwhelmingly show President Trump’s climate denial is his greatest weakness. At the final debate, the Democrat seized on the issue.

Joe Biden finally turned up the heat on climate change.

At his final presidential debate Thursday night, the Democratic nominee leaned into the issue on which polls show he’s most handily outmatching President Donald Trump, a fossil fuel hard-liner who has stubbornly clung to conspiracies and pseudoscience in the face of mounting climate disasters.

“Global warming is an existential threat to humanity,” Biden said. “We have a moral obligation to deal with it.”

Trump wants to recreate the Hillary-email magic with Hunter's "laptop from hell." Here's why it isn't working. https://t.co/qZfIjvTLEH

— Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) October 23, 2020

Adam Serwer/Atlantic:

The Supreme Court Is Helping Republicans Rig Elections

Adding more justices to the bench might be the only way to stop them.

For a judge with a brilliant legal mind, Amy Coney Barrett seemed oddly at a loss for words.

Does a president have the power to postpone an election? Senator Dianne Feinstein of California asked. Barrett said she would have to approach that question—about a power the Constitution explicitly grants to Congress—“with an open mind.”

Is voter intimidation illegal? Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota asked. “I can’t apply the law to a hypothetical set of facts,” Barrett replied. Klobuchar responded by reading the statute outlawing voter intimidation, which exists and is, therefore, not hypothetical.

Should the president commit to a peaceful transfer of power? Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey asked. Barrett replied that, “to the extent this is a political controversy right now, as a judge I want to stay out of it.”

always the most racist person in the room https://t.co/1xYe4Mtf8Z

— darth™ (@darth) October 23, 2020

Ryan Lizza/Politico:

Trump's sideshow fizzles out

The president tried to turn debate day into a trial of the Biden family's allegedly shady business dealings. It didn't go smoothly.

In the end, the Nashville debate was more about Tony Fauci than Tony Bobulinski.

Trailing by nearly 10 points in the polls, and facing the potential for the greatest repudiation of an incumbent president since Jimmy Carter in 1980 — a 400-plus electoral vote victory is possible for Joe Biden — Donald Trump arrived at the final debate of the 2020 campaign seized by an issue that was never really discussed.

“We’re not entering a dark winter. We’re entering the final turn and approaching the light at the end of the tunnel” — Trump on Covid just now, hoping that merely repeating the same optimism for eight-plus months can distort reality

— Sam Stein (@samstein) October 23, 2020

Berkman Klein Center:

Partisanship, Impeachment, and the Democratic Primaries: American Political Discourse

PUBLIC DISCOURSE IN THE U.S. 2020 ELECTION: JANUARY AND FEBRUARY

The biggest change we observe in these first two months of 2020 compared to the election cycle of four years ago is the degree to which conservative media activists have shaped mainstream media coverage. In 2016, right-wing media activists succeeded in influencing mainstream coverage of Hillary Clinton, particularly on the unsubstantiated allegations of wrongdoing associated with the Clinton Foundation, which exacerbated and fed upon coverage of her emails and fueled suspicions of corruption and dishonesty. In the current election cycle, conservative media activists rolled out the same playbook that was so successful in 2016. This time, the corruption allegations were focused on Joe Biden, his son Hunter, and their dealings with Ukraine and China. This story was picked up by mainstream media in 2019, but the core allegation—that Joe Biden pressured Ukraine to remove a prosecutor in order to protect his son—fell apart under scrutiny. By January 2020, while conservative media continued to push out exaggerated and false claims, the dominant mainstream framing of this story had shifted to Donald Trump’s abuse of his presidential power for his own political gain, which overshadowed the well-established and misguided actions of Hunter Biden to cash in on his father’s name. The discredited allegations of corrupt dealings by Joe Biden were getting no play in mainstream media. While conservative media continues to exhibit a remarkable capacity for reframing news coverage to align with the beliefs and perceptions of its core audiences, in January and February of 2020, its power to shape mainstream media coverage was diminished compared to 2016. This is the most notable change we observe and has the potential to alter the electoral calculus in the November election.      

A new @nature paper providing even more evidence that masks really do reduce the spread of #COVID19 . https://t.co/EkcHDQSWBJ

— Kimberly Prather, Ph.D. (@kprather88) October 23, 2020

John A Stoehr/Substack:

Trump holds everyone in contempt, including Republican voters

Scorn for real people's real problems is why the debates matter.

Again, I don’t know exactly what about the first debate caused Biden’s margin over the president to grow. No one can really say for sure. Cause-and-effect is not possible to identify in public polling. But the margin did widen. That’s a fact. Trump’s disdain for ordinary human frailty was a part of that. I can’t help thinking (hoping?) even hard-shelled Republican supporters were put off by the sight of such naked disgust for a problem lots and lots of people face, especially amid the scourge of opioid addiction.

The pundit corps was, last night, and is, this morning, noting the differences between the first and second debate, in particular the president did not beclown himself quite so heroically, which, by the magic of punditry, means he did just as well as Biden. Meanwhile, the concrete detail I’m seeing popping up is Trump’s indifference to the suffering of 500-some children in government custody after being taken from their immigrant parents as part of the administration’s sadistic policy of deterrence. Such indifference is appalling—to liberals and others who have living, beating hearts. But I don’t think Trump’s remarks, however soulless they in fact are, are going to move public polling. (Some apparently believe Trump said “good” in response to the fact that these children are still not reunited with their parents. He didn’t. He said “go ahead” to moderator Kristen Welker. Rendered in mush-mouth, it sounded like “good.”)

Reagan actually extended his lead over the last 11 days in both 1980 and 1984. Carter's margin in '76, Bush's margin in 2004 and Obama's margin in 2008 stayed about the same. In the other 6 elections (6 of the last 9), the frontrunner lost between 3-6 pts over the homestretch. https://t.co/sxJCgQ18Zz

— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) October 23, 2020

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The WH tax scofflaw paid $750 in taxes, owes nearly a billion dollars

Sarah Longwell/The Bulwark:

Scenes from a Supreme Court Focus Group

Talking with nine swing-state voters who went for Trump in 2016 about the coming SCOTUS fight.

When I logged onto the Zoom call I began the discussion with an open-ended question: “How has your thinking about the presidential race changed—or has it—since we last spoke?”

Their answers surprised me. No one even mentioned the Supreme Court. Instead many of the women volunteered that they were leaning much more toward Joe Biden because of Donald Trump’s recent refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power.

Their disgust was palpable.

After accusing Biden of being on drugs and Bloomberg of bribery, calling for the impeachment of a senator, repeating his usual vague insinuations about ballots and his usual vague promise of an Obamacare replacement, Trump has arrived at his golf club.

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) September 27, 2020

good morning, Philadelphia $750, huh? pic.twitter.com/l0nvmiT5XE

— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) September 28, 2020

Way more to come on the big Trump tax story, but a bit early for the pundits on that, so we will turn to twitter.

The report also reveals the Trump Organization wrote off around $26 million in unexplained “consulting fees” between 2010 and 2018. Some of those tax deductions match consulting fees paid to Ivanka Trump in her financial disclosures. https://t.co/kVdcFPPccT

— The Hill (@thehill) September 27, 2020

Otoh, this is a work of art:

Teachers paid $7,239 Firefighters paid $5,283 Nurses paid $10,216 Donald Trump paid $750 pic.twitter.com/5YE1cbYsBN

— Team Joe (Text JOE to 30330) (@TeamJoe) September 28, 2020

I mean, he’s a tax scofflaw and a security risk, but we knew that.

His bankers will have to deal with his failure as a businessman. But handling his failure of a presidency is up to us. It’s voting season.

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) September 27, 2020

It’s not up to Robert Mueller, voters. It’s up to you. Meanwhile, LOL it all matters.

Should we start a gofundme for the President?

— Rachel Vindman (@natsechobbyist) September 28, 2020

Well, he was losing before the tax story.

You don't need a fancy algorithm to know that Trump is losing, pretty badly at the moment. The Supreme Court pick doesn't seem to be helping him. The COVID situation may be getting worse again. Maybe the debates will help. But the clock is ticking: people are already voting.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2020

From this poll: 1) Biden +12 in 13 battleground states; 2) Biden even in red states Trump won by 11 in 2016; 3) Biden even in veteran and active duty military households. As Kobe would say, job not done.https://t.co/o0DH1guP6y

— John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe) September 27, 2020

Tom Ridge/Philadelphia Inquirer:

I was a Republican governor of Pa. I’m voting for Joe Biden

Whether the Republican Party can restore itself or not, I don’t know. Whether it wants to or not, I don’t know that either. But what matters to me is that the core group of conservative principles I held as a young man when I cast my first vote decades ago are with me today. They are the same principles exhorted by my party’s forebears -- Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. Those principles have been indispensible to me in deciding to extend my hand of support to Joe Biden, who I believe absolutely must be America’s next president.

The bigger endorsement, of course, is The Rock.

Per new ABC/WP poll, Trump heads into weeks of confirmation fight over preserving #ACA protections for #preexistingconditions w/Biden holding these leads on handling health care: +48 non-whites; +47 col+ white women,+ 26 ages 18-29, +24 indies. Biden's even w/non col white women https://t.co/GNdJAIJAu6

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 27, 2020

Margaret Sullivan/WaPo:

Four years ago, Trump survived ‘Access Hollywood’ — and a media myth of indestructibility was born

I come away from all of this — the past four years of shocking scandals and constant lies, the conversations with voters, the media’s beating-our-heads-against-the-wall coverage of Trump voters who still like Trump — with a changed viewpoint about the needle that supposedly doesn’t move.

Actually, it does move.

In looking back at the “Access Hollywood” episode, I came across an academic study published this year by scholars from the University of Massachusetts and Brandeis University that cuts against conventional wisdom. Entitling their paper “Just Locker Room Talk?,” the political scientists concluded that the revelations did make a difference, finding “consistent evidence that the release of the tape modestly, though significantly, reduced support for Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign.” These effects were similar among men and women, but noticeably larger among Republicans compared with Democrats.

Yet another measure of how suburban turnout may soar in Nov. Combined w/a recovery from 16's big decline in Black turnout, it seems very possible that the non-college white vote share, which has been dropping 2 pts every 4 years, could fall 3, creating a deeper hole for Trump. https://t.co/la7HLXO6ck

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 27, 2020

Joseph G Allen and Lindsey C.Marr/WaPo:

Yes, airborne transmission is happening. The CDC needs to set the record straight.

But on Monday, the CDC removed this information from its website, bizarrely explaining that it “does not reflect our current state of knowledge.”

So let’s review our current state of knowledge, shall we?

Many scientists have known that airborne transmission of the virus was happening since February. The CDC, however, somehow failed to recognize the accumulating evidence that airborne transmission is important and therefore failed to alert the public.

Breaking news: NO John durham interim report. No indictments before election - Bartiromo sources. @SundayFutures @FoxNews @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness

— Maria Bartiromo (@MariaBartiromo) September 27, 2020

Michael Grunwald/Politico:

2020 is the Year Trump Was Worried About

If presidential elections really turn on how the country is doing, there's a good reason for the incumbent to sweat.

The U.S. budget deficit tripled this year to $3.3 trillion, by far the highest ever. The U.S. economy shrank at a 31.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter, by far the worst ever. The trade deficit is at its highest level in 12 years. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level in six years. Unemployment claims, which had never topped 700,000 in a week before March, have topped 700,000 every week since March. Farm bankruptcies are rising, even though government payments to farmers are at an all-time high. Homicides are rising in America’s cities after decades of decline, while a series of police killings of unarmed Black Americans has triggered anguished protests and civil unrest. The West Coast is on fire, and 2020 may turn out to be the hottest year in recorded history. America’s reputation abroad is the worst it’s been since the Pew Research Center began doing international surveys.

In related news, a virus that has already killed 200,000 Americans is still spreading in much of the country, even though it’s mostly under control in most of the rest of the world. Now the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, less than two months before an election that was already inflaming some rather scary tensions, has created a potential constitutional crisis, while President Donald Trump is refusing to commit to a peaceful transition of power if he loses the election to Joe Biden.

Voters are already starting to vote, and the president is already proclaiming that the election is going to be riddled with fraud, which is not so awesome.

On the other hand … let’s see ... Hamilton is streaming on Disney Plus?

Per new ABC/WP poll, Trump heads into weeks of confirmation fight over preserving #ACA protections for #preexistingconditions w/Biden holding these leads on handling health care: +48 non-whites; +47 col+ white women,+ 26 ages 18-29, +24 indies. Biden's even w/non col white women https://t.co/GNdJAIJAu6

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 27, 2020

Biden leads Trump 49 to 41 percent nationwide, according to a new New York Times/Siena College pollhttps://t.co/D14kMFXrnw

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 27, 2020

Takeaways from NBC News/Marist polls of MI & WI 1. Majorities of likely voters say 2020 winner should get to fill SCOTUS vacancy Winner should fill vacancy MI 54%, WI 56% Trump should fill vacancy immediately MI 35%, WI 37% Trump should fill after election MI 7%, WI 5%

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) September 27, 2020

Marc Lipsitch and Yonatan Grad/WaPo:

How to fix public health weaknesses before the next pandemic hits

The list could go on. The common denominator is an antiquated and unstandardized system of linking data from clinical records and public health monitoring in ways that provide evidence on how to control the virus while minimizing the disruption to the economy and society. Electronic medical records — envisioned as a boon for public-health surveillance, providing data that could be readily analyzed — turn out to be much better for billing than for the exchange of data.

The next phase of pandemic response that might be placed at risk by these spotty data systems is vaccination. Accurate records of who has been vaccinated, when and with which vaccine will be essential. They will encourage trust in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines, ensure prioritization of the groups that should first receive the vaccine, and aid in monitoring vaccine impact on the pandemic. A patchwork of local systems, already strained, is not well-suited to this task.

Natalia Linos/Boston Globe:

COVID-19 is political, so scientists should be too

I ran for Congress because it needs more scientists. But that’s just one of many ways we can have more influence on our government.

Every race is unique, and it is particularly challenging to draw lessons from campaigning during the COVID-19 pandemic, but one thing I learned is that a background in health and an unconventional profile can be appealing to voters across the political spectrum. My campaign found high levels of support with both progressive and more conservative voters, and across the district’s diverse geography. Could having more scientists in Congress, with our focus on evidence and data, help bridge the political divide?

Public health needs a political constituency. Otherwise, the funds won’t be there.

Oh, & like most NYT/Siena state polls, this national survey finds Biden in a strong position even though it has undecided higher for non-white than white voters. The decided voters in those groups give Biden big leads. Where does Trump go for more votes? https://t.co/PP2jntVCFV

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 27, 2020

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Trump perjury, Postmaster General retreats, a Digital Decency Convention

Ross K Baker/USA Today:

Trump defames US mail system as vulnerable to vote fraud, lays groundwork for coup d'etat

The Founders and Abraham Lincoln understood a Postal Service was important to national unity — especially when that unity is threatened, as it is now.

But the most omnipresent components of the USPS are the letter carriers who deliver the mail to our front doors in all seasons while dodging aggressive dogs and staggering under the avalanche of pre-holiday catalogs. These men and women are the face of the USPS, and we get to know them well. I can recall the first names of every letter carrier who brought my mail in the various places I lived during my adult years. Even those fearful of anyone but a family member appearing at their front door welcome the letter carrier. And the gold standard of promissory statements is “the check is in the mail.”

DeJoy ordered USPS to remove 671 mail sorting machines by end of September, including 24 in Ohio, 11 in Detroit, 11 in Florida, 9 in Wisconsin, 8 in Philadelphia and 5 in Arizona. Will removed mail equipment be restored? DeJoy doesn't say in letter & we need answers

— Ari Berman (@AriBerman) August 18, 2020

The pressure matters, as Postmaster General Louis DeJoy now says no procedural changes prior to the election for appearance’s sake. But will changes be rescinded? Remember, they’ll try to blow it all off as “Y2K paranoia” (attention to which addressed the issues). Hearings Friday (Senate) and Monday (House), with legislation in House planned for Saturday preceding the hearing.

Judy and Dennis Shepard, the parents of the late Matthew Shepard, cast Wyoming’s vote at tonight’s DNC roll call. pic.twitter.com/q1D2e1mFc5

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) August 19, 2020

Pretty interesting night 2 of the DNC, we’ll talk about it in the comments. But the virtual roll call was great (especially OH, NC and RI and of course, WY). The health care segment with Ady Barkan. And the very normal, very relatable Joe and Jill Biden, from an empty classroom. And (thank god) short speeches. Decency sells, even digital decency.

New: @USPS board member statement: We are working hard to ensure accountability pic.twitter.com/1a4ihMes04

— davidshepardson (@davidshepardson) August 18, 2020

Overtime will continue “as needed”. Hmmm..

Politico:

They felt the heat. And that's what we were trying to do, make it too hot for them to handle,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said, reacting to the announcement during a POLITICO Playbook interview.

Earlier Tuesday, a group of state attorneys general announced they were filing a lawsuit over the changes at the USPS, arguing the changes were made unlawfully and without following proper procedure. A spokesperson for Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh told POLITICO “our suit moves forward,” after DeJoy’s announcement.

I don’t think this image is giving the message Rudy intended.😂😂 https://t.co/QW0730pwLP

— David Gorski, MD, PhD (@gorskon) August 18, 2020

Barbara McQuade/USA Today:

After Trump: All the ways the next president can restore trust in the Justice Department

Sally Yates is a career federal prosecutor who stayed on as acting attorney general during the early days of the current administration. Her assumption that the Department of Justice would be governed by the rule of law turned out to be a bad match for President Donald Trump’s vision. But her attempts to hold to that principle earned her a speaking slot Tuesday night at the Democratic National Convention.

While many Americans may not be familiar with Yates, those of us who devoted our careers to serving the public at DOJ will recognize her. What we barely recognize is the current incarnation of the only Cabinet agency named for an ideal. That’s why some of us have put together a blueprint for reviving trust there.

It’s harder to state it more clearly than this:

BREAKING: Putin ordered the 2016 hacking of Democratic Party accounts and the release of emails intended to harm Hillary Clinton’s campaign, the Senate Intelligence Committee concluded https://t.co/hY8xkriQub

— Bloomberg (@business) August 18, 2020

“it appears quite likely that Stone and Trump spoke about Wikileaks.” In other words, Trump lied to Mueller. That’s a major finding by a bipartisan Senate committee. https://t.co/lRVChfFnSR

— Dan Shallman (@danshallman) August 18, 2020

This was a bipartisan finding. That Republican Intel Senators knew this but refused to call for witnesses or convict on impeachment is another story. And that this is still going on is another story, indeed.

Guardian:

Louis DeJoy: is Trump's new post office chief trying to rig the election?

Since taking office in June, DeJoy has executed sweeping changes at the struggling USPS, leading to delays in mail delivery – and fears mail-in ballots won’t arrive on time

About a month ago, a United States Postal Service (USPS) mail carrier named Mark arrived at his post office in central Pennsylvania and got some shocking news from his station manager. Mark and his coworkers were told they would have to depart the office for deliveries a few hours earlier each day, even if that meant leaving behind much of the day’s mail.

In the weeks that followed, higher-ups at the station instructed carriers to abandon hundreds of pieces of mail in order to depart a mere 10 or 20 minutes earlier. As the days went on, the excess mail started to pile up, and now Mark estimates there are thousands of undelivered letters and packages sitting in his station.

“The supervisors are cracking the whip, making sure we leave,” Mark told the Guardian. “Meanwhile carriers are walking by and saying, ‘Look at all this fucking mail we’re walking past, it’s just sitting there.’”

Keep in mind the new Republican talking point is that it’s all postal efficiency, and not the ‘fevered election stealing’ that Democrats are making up. But that’s what happens when you only talk to management and not labor. It’s really a twofer: sabotage the USPS to go private, and slow ballots down as a bonus.

Biden leads Trump among women, minorities, college-educated whites, and former members of the Trump administration.

— Windsor Mann (@WindsorMann) August 18, 2020

Miles Taylor/WaPo:

At Homeland Security, I saw firsthand how dangerous Trump is for America
The president’s bungled response to the coronavirus pandemic is the ultimate example. In his cavalier disregard for the seriousness of the threat, Trump failed to make effective use of the federal crisis response system painstakingly built after 9/11. Years of DHS planning for a pandemic threat have been largely wasted. Meanwhile, more than 165,000 Americans have died.

This is exactly right. Few undecideds/swing voters are watching party conventions because they tend to be the least engaged/partisan voters. So seeing next-day headlines and reading/watching coverage is more important. https://t.co/PNzh8W6AlZ

— Geoffrey Skelley (@geoffreyvs) August 18, 2020

Niskanen Center:

Niskanen Center/JMC Analytics and Polling Survey of Rural Voters on USPS & COVID19

 Despite a party breakdown of 56% Republican, 34% Democrat in this survey, reflecting the rural Pennsylvania congressional districts sampled, 57% of these likely 2020 voters report they’d be less likely to support a candidate who reduced the budget for the U.S Postal Service, or privatized theagency, including 43% of Republicans.

 52% of these likely voters report they are “not likely at all” to vote by mail this fall, driven almost entirely by Republican voters’ strong rejection of the option. 68% of Republicans report they are“not at all likely” to vote by mail while 53% of Democrats say they are “very likely.”

 53% of rural voters say they are “very” or “somewhat” reliant on USPS service. Rural Republicans profess much less reliance on USPS than rural Democrats -- just 17% of Republicans report being“very” reliant while 43% of “Democrats” say the same, indicating a party effect.

WE ARE SO ON TOP OF THIS PANDEMIC, YOU GUYS https://t.co/I3ttlcRrkO

— Maggie Koerth (@maggiekb1) August 18, 2020

Greg Sargent/WaPo:

Trump’s unhinged Twitter meltdown shows Michelle Obama drew blood

President Trump unleashed a torrent of rage tweets about Michelle Obama’s speech at the Democratic convention that was spectacularly cringeworthy even by his standards — but it only underscored how effectively the former first lady made the case against him, in ways that are significant but not immediately apparent.

The strength of her scorching indictment of Trump — delivered on Monday night — resides in the fact that everyone, or at least a majority, knows it is true. As Trump’s meltdown shows, his only available response is to swap in an entirely invented tale, one hermetically sealed off from reality in just about every conceivable way.

Her case, boiled down, is that Trump inherited a country that, for all its deep problems and lingering inequalities, was on the mend following another previous crisis. Trump proceeded to utterly wreck the place through his incompetence, malevolence, corruption and depraved conviction that stoking as much civil conflict and racial incitement as possible helps him.

My Pillow creator, Mike Lindell defends promoting an unproven therapeutic. “Why would I ruin my reputation?" .@andersoncooper: “You don't have a great reputation, sir."

— Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga) August 18, 2020

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Republicans on record as opposing change, defending traitors

It’s remarkable that more than 150 years after the Civil War ended, Republicans are still fighting a rearguard action.

Roll Call:

Senate chairman vows fight over Confederacy issue

Inhofe plans to water down language requiring name change for bases honoring Confederate generals

Oklahoma Republican James M. Inhofe, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Thursday that he will try to dilute his committee’s newly adopted proposal that would require the Defense Department to rename bases and other assets named after Confederates...

First, he said, he would change it from a requirement to change Confederacy names to an option: “‘shall’ respond should be ‘may,’” he said.

Secondly, he said state and local communities should be involved not just in informing the commission’s work but also in ultimately making the decision over whether and how to rename bases.

This is not going to end well for them.

Susan B Glasser/NewYorker:

Trump Hates Losers, So Why Is He Refighting the Civil War—on the Losing Side?

A week of protest, pandemic, and political unrest in the capital.

I know it is hard to remember all the crazy things that happen in the course of a week in Trump’s America, but I will try hard to remember this one: a week when I saw troops in the streets and worried about a years-long economic crisis; a week when an untamed pandemic killed up to a thousand Americans a day; a week when massive nationwide protests suggested that our dysfunctional, gridlocked political system might finally actually do something about the plague of police brutality and systemic racism. And then there was the President, who chose to spend the week refighting the Civil War—on the losing side. This, too, I will remember, and so, dear reader, should you.

Dear Republicans, You can't call yourselves "the party of Lincoln" AND wave the Confederate flag. Love, History

— Mikel Jollett (@Mikel_Jollett) June 11, 2020

That Trump St. John's Church/Bible photo op didn't go any better than gassing peaceful protesters did in retrospect. And don't forget: They thought it was a tremendous win ... which is a good argument for why Trump is going to lose. 

Bayonets. For use on US citizens. https://t.co/2sLnqz97Le

— hilzoy (@hilzoy) June 11, 2020

NY Times:

Milley Apologizes for Role in Trump Photo Op: ‘I Should Not Have Been There’

President Trump’s walk across Lafayette Square, current and former military leaders say, has started a moment of reckoning in the military.

“I should not have been there,” Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a prerecorded video commencement address to National Defense University. “My presence in that moment and in that environment created a perception of the military involved in domestic politics.”

His first public remarks since Mr. Trump’s photo op, in which federal authorities attacked peaceful protesters so that the president could hold up a Bible in front of St. John’s Church, are certain to anger the White House, where Mr. Trump has spent the days since the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis taking increasingly tougher stances against the growing movement for change across the country.

� � � � � The Economist's forecasting model for the US presidential election is now live! We think Joe Biden has around a 5-in-6 shot at winning the presidency.https://t.co/O6Lknvo6Kp

— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 11, 2020

McClatchy:

Staring down a polling slide and growing unease, Trump campaign enters perilous moment

A months-long precipitous slide in the polls, an unfocused message, and deepening doubts about his ability to soothe a nation wracked by a trio of crises have suddenly recast President Donald Trump as an undisputed underdog in the 2020 campaign.

It’s even raised the possibility that if conditions don’t improve, Trump could lose decisively to Joe Biden in an election less than five months away, according to more than a dozen interviews with leading GOP and Democratic officials and strategists — potentially upending long-held expectations that the White House race would be determined by razor-thin margins in a small handful of states…

“If this election were held today, it would be Biden by double digits, easy,” said James Carville, the lead strategist for Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign. “Things could change, but they generally don’t.”

Other Democrats, who remain reflexively cautious due to the lingering scars of 2016’s surprise result, are still heartened by the data showing blossoming support for Biden and dismal numbers for Trump.

Here's the fact: Trump's re-elect is in tremendous trouble. No serious analyst I know of believes he's anything but an underdog. His chance of winning is something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 based on history... It's quite possible he pulls it off, but it's bad.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 11, 2020

Trump's relative strengths, right now, are not as relevant. He still does better on the economy, for instance, but that's under the radar. Among no col whites, I'd guess he's still strong on immigration. But these issues aren't salient right now.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) June 11, 2020

AP:

Analysis: As US reckons over race, Trump becomes a bystander

At a moment of national reckoning over racism in America, President Donald Trump is increasingly becoming a bystander.

He wasn’t in the pews of churches in Minneapolis or Houston to memorialize George Floyd, the black man whose death sparked protests across the country. He hasn’t spoken publicly about the ways Floyd’s death during a police arrest has shaken the conscience of millions of Americans of all races. And he’s dismissed the notion of systemic racism in law enforcement, repeatedly putting himself firmly on the side of the police over protesters.

I think having your first rally in months on Juneteenth in Tulsa in our current moment, and while this also is going on, is the on-brandiest on-brand thing the president* ever has done.https://t.co/Z0Glhz1Jlp

— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) June 11, 2020

Geoffrey Skelley/FiveThirtyEight:

Trump’s Approval Rating Has Dropped. How Much Does That Matter?

For the last three weeks, President Trump’s approval rating has steadily ticked downward. It now sits at 41.1 percent,1 according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker.

This is notable, because it’s the lowest Trump’s approval rating has been since the House of Representatives was in the midst of conducting its impeachment inquiry in November 2019.

It’s not exactly hard to unpack why this is happening now. Trump has gotten consistently low marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and many Americans also don’t approve of how he’s responded to the protests following the death of George Floyd, a black man killed by police officers last month.

The question is: Just how much does this latest shift in approval numbers matter?…

This is doubly true if independent voters are also turned off by Trump, as they backed him by 4 points in 2016, according to the exit polls. And there’s reason to believe Trump might already be in trouble with independents. That CNN poll found, for instance, Trump trailing by 11 points with this group, while a Monmouth University poll conducted in late May and early June had Trump down by 16 points. Other surveys have found Trump in slightly better shape with independents, although still trailing Biden. For instance, an early June poll from NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist had him behind by 4 points, and the latest survey from The Economist/YouGov had him down by 3 points. The margins here matter, but at this stage, the polls generally agree that Trump’s losing among independents, which isn’t a good sign for his reelection chances.

Of course, with roughly five months to go until Election Day, Trump has time for his approval rating to bounce back, just as it has previously. Trump’s actions, as we’ve seen, can negatively affect his ratings, but it’s also within his power to boost them. But the more Trump’s approval rating hangs out around the 40 percent mark, the harder it is to imagine him attracting enough support to win reelection — especially given his inability to broaden his appeal. And as we’ve said before, Trump’s base won’t be enough.

Despite his rhetoric, Trump is losing the argument on Law & Order. That�s it. That�s the tweet. Read the graph. https://t.co/eiTCJF4nmj pic.twitter.com/eLOLNKRIhx

— Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) June 11, 2020

TPM:

Biden Is Convinced Military Would Remove Trump If He Refused To Leave White House

Joe Biden is “absolutely convinced” that the military would remove President Trump from the White House if he refuses to leave after a reelection loss in November.

“This president is going to try to steal this election,” Biden said in an interview on The Daily Show with Trevor Noah on Wednesday night.

When asked if Biden had considered what would happen if he wins but Trump refuses to leave the White House, the Democratic presidential nominee said he had.

“I’’m absolutely convinced they will escort him from the White House with great dispatch,” Biden said.

Anxiety is growing in Republican circles that Trump could be heading for a resounding defeat in November. But so is concern that the party will be able to abandon his direction even if he does. Here's why. https://t.co/0IR3rHdnnb

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) June 11, 2020

In other words, a post-Trump GOP will be more Trumpy as sane people flee.

NY Times:

As Americans Shift on Racism, Trump Digs In

With much of the country acknowledging that protesters’ frustrations are justified, the president increasingly sounds detached from many voters in the political middle and even some of his allies.

At a time when the country is confronting three overlapping crises — the coronavirus, an economic collapse and a reckoning with racism and injustice — Mr. Trump’s inability to demonstrate empathy illustrates the limitations of his political arsenal. He is well equipped to compete in a campaign where slashing negative attacks are the order of the day, and few salesmen speak in superlatives like the former hotel magnate. Yet when the moment calls for neither pugilism nor promotion, he has little to say.

Reinforcing Mr. Trump’s instincts and decisions are a small group of advisers, like those who arranged for the president to hold a campaign rally on June 19 in Tulsa, Okla. — on a day dedicated to honoring black emancipation, Juneteenth, and in a city that saw one of the worst episodes of racial violence in the country’s history a century ago.

Social distancing saves lives. Proud of the work we�ve done in Michigan to prevent spread of #COVID19 https://t.co/Qq47shEZJK

— Dr. Joneigh Khaldun (@DrKhaldun) June 12, 2020

Errol G Southers/USA Today:

Black ex-cop: I understand the anger but don't defund police. It could make things worse.

If you strip police funds, the first cuts will be community interaction programs that require humanity and commitment, not guns, tanks or pepper spray.

I am an African American. I grew up during the civil rights era, and I saw firsthand police abuses and brutality against people who looked like me. It is what motivated me to pursue a career in law enforcement, to be a part of the change I sought in the world. This career led me to city police forces in California, to the FBI and ultimately to serve as assistant chief at the Los Angeles World Airports police department. Across my years in law enforcement, I saw plenty of the bad qualities in the profession, but I saw something else as well — the positive impact police programs and outreach have in supporting safe, strong communities.

When police command staff are presented with a reduced budget, the decision-making is simple. They will not reduce expenses for personnel and equipment. They will cut the costs of the many programs police departments provide that are outside of day-to-day law enforcement. There are offerings like cadet and Explorer programs, which bring together young people and police in community service and personal development.

Biden Outlines Plan To Reopen Economy, Including Testing Every Worker <-- YES �� EVERY �� WORKER ��https://t.co/Eg7fXQMTkR

— Symone D. Sanders (@SymoneDSanders) June 11, 2020

Rupert Murdoch Predicts Trump Will �Crash And Burn� In November Election https://t.co/3PjCcB16Qs via @TPM

— Bruce Bartlett (@BruceBartlett) June 11, 2020

Reuters:

Most Americans, including Republicans, support sweeping Democratic police reform proposals - Reuters/Ipsos poll

Trump and Biden have both said they oppose “defunding” police departments.

Yet the Reuters/Ipsos poll found that support varies based on how it is defined.

For example, 39% of respondents supported proposals “to completely dismantle police departments and give more financial support to address homelessness, mental health, and domestic violence.”

But 76% said they supported moving “some money currently going to police budgets into better officer training, local programs for homelessness, mental health assistance, and domestic violence.”

82% of Americans want to ban police from using chokeholds, 83% want to ban racial profiling, and 92% want federal police to be required to wear body cameras. https://t.co/D9pDPyG4mL

— Charlie Sykes (@SykesCharlie) June 12, 2020

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: The protests are only growing as Trump loses the argument

Portland Press-Herald:

Our View: To President Trump: You should resign now

He lacks the character, maturity and judgment to lead the country in a perilous time

President Trump: We’re sorry that you decided to come to Maine, but since you are here, could you do us a favor? Resign.

You have never been a good president, but today your shortcomings are unleashing historic levels of suffering on the American people.

Your slow response to the coronavirus pandemic has spun a manageable crisis into the worst public health emergency since 1918.

We are also in the middle of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. There is no national strategy to recover from the shock that is disproportionately affecting people who were already struggling to make it.

More newspapers need to follow the lead here set by Maine.

• protester violence gives way to peaceful protest

• suspension and arrests of police have been made

• tear gas under public discussion and, in some regions, banned

• NFL, Facebook and other bastions of enabled amorality paying attention

Progress of sorts, uneven but welcome.

JUST OUT: New HuffPost/YouGov polling finds that Americans support the protests, and view George Floyd's death as part of a broader pattern of police behavior. That's a change from the protests of the 1960s -- and from just a few years ago.https://t.co/qMXaBKld4V

— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) June 5, 2020

Lee Drutman/FiveThirtyEight:

If Republicans Are Ever Going To Turn On Trump, This Might Be The Moment

This is one of those rare moments of uncertainty when it’s possible that the wall of Republican support sheltering Trump finally crumbles. It is still unlikely to happen, but as I’ve written before, if it does happen, it will happen suddenly….

Most likely, Senate and House Republicans will eventually find a way to defend Trump’s actions, as they have done before (remember the impeachment trial?). Trump may not be perfect, they may say, but the Democrats are much worse. This is the prevailing rationalization of our zero-sum politics.

But in moments like this, when nobody knows exactly what to say or do, a few unlikely public critiques of Trump could have a surprising cascade effect. And if the president continues to transgress widely-shared democratic values — putting congressional Republicans in an increasingly difficult electoral position — we may yet see a consequential crack in the Republican Party.

A.G. Sulzberger just told the Newsroom that the Cotton oped was "contemptuous." "This piece should not have been published."

— Sheera Frenkel (@sheeraf) June 5, 2020

Poynter:

An op-ed controversy led to a New York Times revolt. Here’s what happened and why the Times was wrong.

Earlier this week, the Times editorial board ran an op-ed piece from Arkansas Republican Sen. Tom Cotton calling for the military to be deployed to cities during protests about the death of George Floyd, racial inequality and police brutality. Cotton’s over-the-top editorial included such phrases as “feckless politicians,” “orgy of violence” and “bands of miscreants.”

But aside from being embarrassingly over-written, the op-ed appeared dangerous. Cotton wrote, “delusional politicians in other cities refuse to do what’s necessary to uphold the rule of law.”

Do what’s necessary? What does that mean?

Readers accused the Times of publishing divisive and potentially harmful rhetoric that was suggesting something akin to martial law. The pushback was just as loud inside the Times as dozens of Times employees tweeted the same thing: “Running this puts Black @NYTimes staff in danger.”

In a letter to leadership, an unspecified number of Times employees wrote, “We believe his message undermines the work we do, in the newsroom and in opinion, and violates our standards for ethical and accurate reporting for the public’s interest. It also jeopardizes our journalists’ ability to work safely and effectively on the streets.”

Democrats hold a narrow lead over Trump on trust to decide �how and when� to reopen the country. That lead widens by 9 points when adding the word �safely� to the message. pic.twitter.com/K9p0bZyGEA

— Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) June 5, 2020

CJ Chivers/twitter:

The New York Times is about to begin an all-staff meeting w/ the paper's leadership to discuss the Op-Ed by Senator Cotton. I neither expect nor deserve to have front-of-line mic time there, so will speak here.
I say what follows as a longtime @nytimes employee and foreign correspondent who covered police, military, and intelligence service violence against peaceful citizens in authoritarian states.
I also say it as a former @usmc infantry officer who commanded a Marine company federalized to deploy into the greater LA area in the 1992 to quell unrest. (My company deployed to Compton.)
With these two sets of experience, I know first-hand the grave risk to citizens, including risks not obvious, related to assigning military units to this kind of duty, and am also aware of how such action could further the militarization of American society already underway.
Amplifying a call from an official of the ruling party for a federal crackdown of aggrieved citizens exercising rights of assembly & speech was wrong on its face, and made more so by a glaring, gratuitous insult included therein.

Note that the upper numbers were unusually high - during Trump's brief bump at the beginning of the pandemic. White evangelicals & white mainline are back to 2019 avg. But: white non-college & white Catholics have fallen significantly below 2019 avg.https://t.co/S72ziutzZi

— Natalie Jackson (@nataliemj10) June 5, 2020

Jack Jenkins/Religion News Service:

Should Trump worry about white Catholic and mainline Protestant votes?

As the 2020 election season heats up, both parties are likely to begin vying for the votes of a crucial group of white, Christian voters.

And no, it’s not white evangelicals.

While white evangelicals have garnered more attention than other faith groups over the past few decades, pollsters and political activists believe white Catholics and mainline Protestants could have an outsized impact in November 2020.

The reason has to do with their location and persuadability. Unlike white evangelicals, whose support for Republican candidates and Trump has become increasingly ironclad, white mainliners and Catholics tend to change their minds about candidates from election to election. Many also live in Rust Belt swing states that Trump won only by narrow margins in 2016.

"Would you support or oppose allowing cities to bring in (x) to support their response to protests." National Guard: Support: 57% (-9) Oppose: 33% (+13) Military: Support: 42% (-13) Oppose: 48% (+18) Morning Consult / June 5, 2020 / n=2014 / Online (% chg w June 1) pic.twitter.com/LsI97kFK72

— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) June 5, 2020

WaPo:

Pushback against law-enforcement violence hits 11th day; National Guard ordered to disarm

A national pushback against police violence and law enforcement excess continued Friday, as Minneapolis voted to ban chokeholds, the National Guardsmen in the nation’s capital were ordered to disarm, and protests following the death of George Floyd stretched into an 11th day.

Meantime, a fresh round of outrage swelled around the country over law enforcement officers using excessive force against citizens peacefully exercising their rights.

And in Buffalo, officers pushed back against the pushback. Fifty-seven members of the police department -- the entire emergency response team -- resigned to protest the suspension of two officers shown on video shoving a 75-year-old protester to the ground, causing him to hit his head on the sidewalk and suffer a serious injury, officials said.

Vice President Biden leads President Trump among white college-educated women 67% (!) to 28% (!) in new NPR/PBS/Marist poll out today.

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) June 6, 2020

Jeremy Konyndyk/twitter:

OK, let's address these "why did we lock down if BLM protests are ok" takes. There are lots of pundits arguing this means public health advice is all relative to ideological sympathies. That's not it. It's about balance of risks.
I'll say up front: I think there's a chance these protests will amplify transmission. But I also think there are steps that can be taken (and visibly are being taken, frequently) to mitigate that risk.
We know far more about COVID transmission than three months ago when US social distancing started. Guidance at that time was based on emerging evidence from China and on diseases thought to be similar, e.g. SARS and influenza. We now have growing evidence on COVID itself.
The evidence tells us a few things (this all predates the protests):
Risk reducers: - Outdoor/full sun activities - Masking - Brief (<10 minutes) or distant contact - Limiting group size  
Risk amplifiers: - Prolonged close contact - Large crowds - Enclosed spaces - Vocalizing

New ABC News poll. Trump disapproval on coronavirus: 60% Trump disapproval on handling of George Floyd's murder: 66% Americans who think his murder reflects broad problems with policing and is not an isolated incident: 74%https://t.co/0ZbkD7n497

— Mark Harris (@MarkHarrisNYC) June 5, 2020

JUST IN: Only 32% of Americans approve of Pres. Trump's reaction in the aftermath of George Floyd's death, while about two-thirds disapprove, per new @ABC News/Ipsos poll. https://t.co/j6KzqR4nyX pic.twitter.com/D8vjLqajiF

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) June 5, 2020

Amy E. Walter/Cook Political Report:

How Do We Know We Are at a Tipping Point?

What you can also see, however, is the impact that the postgraduate cohort has on the overall lean of the combined white college and postgraduate community. White postgrads had never been all that strongly identified with Republicans and now identify with Democrats by 24 points. However, the more dramatic movement is among white four-year degree holders who, 25 years ago, overwhelmingly affiliated themselves with the GOP and who now lean Democrat by three points. Their inflection point came a bit later than the postgrads — more like 2012 than 2004.  

Bottom line: 2016 was not a tipping point; it was a galvanizing one. The real tipping points came at the tail-end of the Bush-era or during the Obama-era. In other words, the election of Donald Trump didn't shift partisanship, but it did deepen it.  

Here's a Marist poll with Biden +7... and at the 50% mark. (He leads big on handling race relations 52% to 35% among voters.) https://t.co/93lCcX6V6C

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 5, 2020

What happened in 2016 shouldn't have been that surprising. The tipping point state's margin was about 3 pts different than the national margin. Historically, the average dating back to 1856 is 2. Something greater than 5 would be well outside the historical bound.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 5, 2020

Another polling point (see yesterday’s discussion as well): tracking over time is so valuable for insight. Some of the movement we see takes years and years. There’s only 5 months before the election and some of these long term shifts aren’t going to suddenly disappear.

New @amyewalter column a reminder how much the white col-educated vote has shifted in the last 15 years. They identified with Rs by a 17-point margin in 2004, and a 12-point margin in the blue wave of 2016. Now Democrats hold a three-point advantage.https://t.co/dXPR55oDQR

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 5, 2020

And this: 

BS: If you want to protest, here�s an idea: Take a knee in silence during the national anthem before @Kaepernick7�s next start https://t.co/vrNkWuITzQ

— Ron Fournier (@ron_fournier) June 5, 2020

It isn't that Roger Goodell is doing the right thing (too little too late), it's that he is a creature of the Trump loving owners, and this tells you how profound the protests are and how deeply they are reaching.

CNBC:

George Floyd protests created a surge in voter registrations, groups say

  • Voter registrations, volunteer activity and donations for groups linked to Democratic causes are surging in the midst of protests following the death of George Floyd, according to voting advocacy organizations.
  • This surge in registrations could end up being one of the factors that helps tip the election between apparent Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump.
  • The efforts are by groups including Latino voter registration organizations, Rock the Vote and one co-chaired by former first lady Michelle Obama.

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: No justice with Barr at the DOJ; ‘Obamagate’; Dr. Fauci the scapegoat

The Abbreviated Pundit Round-up is a regular feature of Daily Kos.

Harold Meyerson at The American Prospect writes—Which Are the Real Mismanaged States?

Republicans seem bent on finding a way to punish the blue states in the next tranche of emergency legislation coming from the Congress. Rick Scott, the former governor and current senator from Florida, has contrasted his state’s low budgets with those of blue New York and California (all of which were in balance before the pandemic struck), while President Trump has claimed that “Republican states are in strong shape.” Trump has also chastised states with Democratic governors for their presumed tardiness in lifting shelter-in-place orders. “There just seems to be no effort on certain blue states to get back into gear,” he has lamented.

The real difference between blue states and red, if I may borrow a term from the anti-choice movement, is that the blue states are pro-life while the red states are largely indifferent to same. 

That’s certainly clear from the divide we’re seeing on the readiness to open states up at a time when the rate at which COVID-19 is spreading is still increasing in most parts of the country. It’s also true when it comes to matters budgetary. Allegedly well-managed Florida has had perhaps the most inefficient unemployment insurance system in the country. As of mid-April, more than 850,000 Floridians had filed for unemployment, while a bare 34,000 had actually received checks. The number of applicants has now grown to 1.9 million, of whom just 28 percent have received their UI from the state. Had Scott and his Republican successor as governor, Ron DeSantis, invested a sufficient level of public funds to create a more well-run system, Floridians wouldn’t now be subjected to this breakdown in necessary state services.

The vice president made a commitment last month to protecting workers at JBS by sending more PPE and tests. The community in Greeley has yet to receive these supplies.

— Michael Bennet (@SenatorBennet) May 14, 2020

Emily Bazelon and Eric Posner at The New York Times writesThere Used to Be Justice. Now We Have Bill Barr:

It’s easy to grow numb to the abuses of the Trump era. But Mr. Barr’s intervention in the Flynn and Stone cases is a deviation even from the standards at the outset of Mr. Trump’s presidency. The corrosion at the Justice Department from the beginning to the homestretch of Mr. Trump’s first term illustrates a long-term problem of maintaining the independence of a department with unrivaled powers of investigation and prosecution. [...]

The attorney general, whom the president hires and can fire, is supposed to advise the president and advance his or her policies. But he is also obligated to enforce the law impartially and not to use it to shield the president’s allies or punish his enemies.

Nancy LeTourneau at The Washington Monthly writes—Why Aren’t More Newspapers Calling on Trump to Resign?

Much of the country seems to have grown complacent about the massive failures, criminal violations, and ubiquitous lies coming from Donald Trump. It would be an overwhelming task to chronicle all of them, but Joe Lockhart made an attempt to highlight the most egregious.

After three years of political and actual carnage under Trump, including Robert Mueller’s description of acts that amounted to, he told Congress, obstruction of justice; Trump’s “fine people on both sides” reaction to a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville where a counter-protester was killed; his rampant conflicts of interest and credible accusations of his violations of the emoluments clause of the Constitution; his close to 17,000 false statements; a travel ban that primarily targets mostly Muslim-majority countries;impeachment for alleged extortion of a foreign government (he was acquitted in the Republican Senate), and the gross mishandling of a deadly pandemic, you’d think somebody on an editorial board might say it’s time for the President to leave.

That was part of a column by Lockhart in which he attempted to answer the question of why more newspaper editorial boards haven’t called for Trump’s resignation. For some historical precedent, he notes the following.

By the height of the Watergate scandal in 1974, virtually every major newspaper in America had called for President Richard Nixon’s resignation. During the investigation and impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998, more than 100 newspapers called for him to resign.

Given that both Woodward and Bernstein have said that Trump’s Ukraine scandal alone was worse than Watergate, it is an important question to ask. 

Wearing a mask doesn't really protect you. It protects other people. Protecting other people isn't weakness.

— [[[ âÂ�³âÂ�²Ã�Â�âÂ�¦âÂ�® âÂ�¦Ã�Â�âÂ�¦ ]]] (@TheAgentNDN) May 14, 2020

Leanna S. Wen at The Washington Post writes—We’re retreating to a new strategy on COVID-19. Let’s call it what it is:

The administration has yet to use these words, but it appears that we’re adopting a strategy that I recognize from other aspects of public health: harm reduction.

Harm reduction was initially developed as a public health approach to reduce the negative consequences of drug use. It recognizes that while stopping drug use is the desired outcome, many people won’t be able to do that. For those individuals, needle-exchange programs can reduce their risk of acquiring HIV and hepatitis and transmitting these infections to others. Such programs do not promote or condone drug use, as some critics contend. Rather, they face the reality that if a behavior with harmful consequences is going to happen regardless, steps should be taken to reduce the risk for both individuals and others around them. Think, too, of safe-sex campaigns, or motorcycle helmet laws.

And this seems to me where we are with covid-19: We’re no longer trying to eliminate the virus. Instead, we are accepting that Americans will have to live with it.

Mindy Isser at Jacobin writes—The Post Office Is a National Treasure. We Can’t Let the Privatizers Destroy It:

On May 6, President Trump appointed longtime GOP donor Louis DeJoy, a North Carolina businessman, as the new postmaster general. Curiously absent from DeJoy’s résumé is any experience working in the USPS — the first time in nearly two decades the postmaster general has not been selected from the postal service’s ranks. In a statement on DeJoy’s appointment, the American Postal Workers Union (APWU) — one of four unions that represent postal employees — said that if DeJoy pursues an agenda of privatization, he “will be met with stiff resistance from postal workers and the people of this country.”

There’s plenty of reason to suspect DeJoy will do so, falling in line with the man who selected him.  [...]

The USPS is the second largest employer in the country — topped only by the federal government — with over 600,000 workersA little more than one-third of postal employees are women18 percent are veterans. A source of well-paying, union jobs, the USPS is also an engine for racial justice. Nearly a quarter of all postal workers are black, and the postal service has long been a means for black Americans to access decent pay and stable working conditions. As early as 1861, federal employment in the postal service was open to African Americans, and since the end of the Civil War it has provided a home for black workers throughout the country. As William Burrus, the first black president of the American Postal Workers Union, has warned, a successful assault on the postal service would “put an end to the relationship between people of color and their opportunity to climb up the ladder of success in our country … The post office has permitted millions of African-Americans to better themselves.”

40 years ago today, people pushed the state to reopen areas around Mt. St. Helens citing tourism & the economy against advice of scientists. Five days later, the volcano erupted. #msh40 https://t.co/ok5Vmjwug8

— WA Emergency Management (@waEMD) May 14, 2020

Amanda Marcotte at Salon writes—Trump flunkies try to scapegoat Anthony Fauci — but we all know who's really to blame:

Just a month ago, I predicted that Donald Trump and his lickspittles in Congress and right-wing media were setting up Dr. Anthony Fauci as their scapegoat for Trump's massive failures. (That admittedly wasn't difficult, since the far right has been attacking Fauci all along.) Now here we are, with the death toll from the novel coronavirus soaring past 83,000 and the unemployment rate at 15% (and likely closer to 20%) and, sure enough, some of the worst Trump flunkies are looking to blame the sober-minded infectious disease expert who's been working tirelessly on the coronavirus problem, despite having the worst possible boss imaginable.

Some on the right, in their ludicrous efforts to depict Trump as blameless (and almost hapless), are painting Fauci as an all-powerful mastermind who is somehow controlling the government against the president's will — and even suggesting he's faking the scientific understanding of how contagious the coronavirus is. [...]

This is the paradox of Trumpian authoritarianism. On one hand, Trump ran on the promise that "I alone can fix it", but from the second he set foot in the Oval Office, he and his supporters have depicted him as a helpless child being controlled by a nefarious "deep state" that is working against him. Now the narrative forming against Fauci holds that he somehow manipulated Trump or controlled his decisions on handling the coronavirus.

Kim Kelly at The Baffler writes—Barely Necessities:

ONE OF THE DEFINING PORTRAITS of the coronavirus crisis has been that of the heroic, self-sacrificing “essential worker”—the doctor, nurse, janitor, transit operator, grocery store worker, farmworker, or meatpacking plant worker—who valiantly reports to their job each day, often swathed in public accolades instead of PPE, and gives their all to keep society running smoothly. Many of them are paid minimum wage and lack health insurance and other benefits. In New York City, the current epicenter of the pandemic, they’re even greeted with a nightly round of applause and pot clanging.

Many writers—and workers themselves—have pointed out the cognitive dissonance that comes with treating essential workers with the forehead-scraping reverence usually reserved for battered troops returning from one of our imperialist forever wars. It’s even more awkward for those who are still putting in hours at businesses that have been deemed “essential” but are really anything but, from print shops to pet grooming salons. These reluctant heroes are yet another example of how the United States values capital over labor, and how bosses can (and will) exploit any legal loophole they find, even amid a global public health crisis, in their pursuit of the almighty dollar.

William Rivers Pitt at TruthOut writes—The HEROES Act Is a Vital Step Toward Ending COVID, So of Course It Is Doomed:

On Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) unveiled the beginnings of an answer to this crisis. The $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions Act, or HEROES Act, would be the largest relief package ever passed in the U.S. if it actually sees the light of day. It is incomplete in a number of vital areas, but it is a stupendous improvement over Trump’s whistle-past-the-overflowing-graveyard plan of pretending none of this is actually happening. [...]

The centerpiece of the bill is another $1,200 direct payment to individuals — up to $6,000 per household. As with the previous relief package, this would also be a one-time payment, and that has led to some appropriately vigorous argument from the progressive wing of the Democratic party.

Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Michigan), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York), Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Massachusetts) co-signed a letter to Speaker Pelosi urging the HEROES Act be modified to make such payments a recurring monthly phenomenon. There was talk of doing just that in the early stages of the bill’s drafting — Senators Bernie Sanders (D-Vermont), Kamala Harris (D-California) and Ed Markey (D-Massachusetts) proposed legislation guaranteeing a $2,000 monthly payment to citizens for the duration of the pandemic — but those ideas did not survive the final draft.

�ALERT: @realDonaldTrump his #coronavirus task force are pushing @CDCgov officials to change how they count #COVID19-related deaths and are pushing for revisions that could lead to *far fewer deaths being counted*. Trump is trying to cook the books.�https://t.co/13kjEkRBYp

— Dr. Dena Grayson (@DrDenaGrayson) May 13, 2020

Jonathan Bernstein at Bloomberg writes—Republican Deficit Hawking Is About to Backfire:

Republicans, then, are not guilty of hypocritically caring about the deficit only when they are out of office. They never care about the actual budget deficit, while always caring about their specific positions on spending and revenue. It’s true that they deploy the rhetoric of deficit reduction when they believe it will help them politically (which, of course, is the way political parties always use words).

But while the emphasis sometimes changes, the policy usually doesn’t. They favor lower taxes, especially for the wealthy, lower spending on many social programs and higher spending on programs for the military, among a few other things, more or less all the time. What’s striking about the mainstream Republican position is consistency, not hypocrisy. Even during the pandemic, they resisted Democratic efforts to spend money on hospitals and expanded coronavirus testing. Yes, they supported funding to support failing businesses, but again: Republicans don’t consider all government spending to pump up the deficit — just spending on things they don’t like.

Now Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and other congressional Republicans are reluctant to agree to any new pandemic relief and stimulus money. Because, they say, of the deficit. I don’t think this means they expect to lose power in November, as at least one political scientist has speculated, or that they’re bluffing; it just needs translation. When they say they care about deficits, it just means that they oppose this particular kind of spending — in this case, aid to state and local governments, extended unemployment benefits, money for health care and the post office, and more.

Michael H. Fuchs at The Guardian writes—Trump is making America an obstacle in the global fight against Covid-19

President Donald Trump’s incompetent handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is not only exacerbating the death and destruction caused by the virus in the US. It is also crippling the global response to the crisis, and the costs could be even deadlier.

When global crises hit, American leadership is essential. Whether it was launching the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar) or marshaling efforts to respond to the 2014 Ebola outbreak, the US has played a central role in tackling many of the world’s deadliest health crises. American leadership is far from perfect, but it is necessary to tackle threats of a global magnitude.

This pandemic is one of the greatest challenges the world has faced since the second world war. [...]

A successful global effort to defeat the pandemic will require a robust American response. Instead, Trump is making it harder for the world to address the crisis.

Trump wants to accuse Obama of crimes. Is he suggesting that a sitting President can commit a crime?

— RESIST 45* (@schwanderer) May 14, 2020

Mark Hertsgaard at Covering Climate Now writes—The COVID-19 Stimulus Debate Is a Pivotal Climate Story:

Of course, it’s neither desirable nor feasible to keep economies on permanent lockdown in the name of climate stability. Which may explain why variations of a Green New Deal, an idea first pressed by climate activists, are garnering support from more and more pillars of the establishment. The European Union, the International Monetary Fund, the mayors of 33 of the world’s biggest cities, the leaders of Europe’s two biggest economies, Germany and France, a coalition of investors who manage more than $32 trillion worth of assets—these are just some of the voices arguing that the government stimulus programs being devised to revive pandemic-stricken economies must be green.

Covid-19 recovery programs “should not be a return to ‘business as usual’—because that is a world on track for more than 3 degrees C of overheating,” warned a statement by the mayors of New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris, São Paulo, Seoul, and 27 other cities with a combined population of 750 million people. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, has argued that instead of ploughing trillions of dollars into fossil fuel energy sources and infrastructure, countries “should try to leapfrog ahead” by investing in solar and wind power and emulating the UK government’s plan to phase out gasoline and diesel engine cars by 2035.

A study led by Nicholas Stern, former chief economist at The World Bank, and Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University found that green stimulus programs outperform their opposites. The economists’ examination of more than 700 stimulus programs launched after the 2008 global financial crisis found that investing in energy efficiency—for example, by retrofitting buildings—and renewable energy yielded more jobs and higher monetary returns than traditional stimulus programs.

Nick Martin at The New Republic writes—Is the Supreme Court Scared of Tribal Sovereignty?

In 2003, writing a concurrent opinion in United States v. Lara, a case that determined an individual can be charged with the same crime in tribal and federal court, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas described the contradictory nature of federal case law as it relates to Indigenous policy: “In my view, the tribes either are or are not separate sovereigns. And our federal Indian law cases untenably hold both positions simultaneously.” This week, nearly 20 years removed from Thomas’s assessment, the high court’s institutional inability to grasp the basics of tribal sovereignty was once again on full display.

On Monday morning, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in McGirt v. Oklahoma, a case concerning whether the Muscogee (Creek) Nation’s 1866 treaty reservation boundaries are still legally in place. The MCN reservation was never officially dissolved by Congress, meaning that a large swath of what is now Oklahoma, formerly Indian Territory, is still technically under MCN jurisdiction, even if it is effectively governed by the state. The appealing party, Jimmy McGirt, is currently serving a life sentence for sex crimes he committed against a child. The case is not concerned with his guilt, which was well established, but rather the jurisdictional issues that arise from the fact that McGirt’s crimes were committed on what is still technically MCN land, but he was tried in state court. (Typically, federal courts have jurisdiction over major crimes committed on sovereign Native soil.)

The issue was initially argued in Murphy v. Carpenter last spring, but because Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump appointee, had heard the case when he was sitting on the Tenth Circuit, he had to recuse himself, leading to a 4–4 split. Seeking to bring in Gorsuch to answer the question definitively, the court took on McGirt, which quickly became one of the most intriguing tests of the United States Indian Country legal framework in recent memory. Listening to the arguments, as the public is now able to do because of the pandemic, it was clear that most of the justices had a staggering but sadly unsurprising lack of knowledge on the basic tenets of sovereignty and Indian Country.

Trump doesn�t care about the 80,000+ people who�ve died from #Coronavirus! He only wants to open up the economy so he can go back to having his white power pep rallies! The death & economic devastation we are facing is b/c Trump failed to act early & called #COVID19 a HOAX!

— Maxine Waters (@RepMaxineWaters) May 14, 2020

Jonathan Chait at New York magazine writes—Obamagate’ Is Trump’s Name for the Crimes He’s Trying to Commit Himself:

President Trump likes to accuse his political antagonists of crimes, almost always imaginary, and his favorite target is President Obama. Trump claims Obama illegally persecuted him, though the details of the accusation have changed. Three years ago, he claimed the crime was a “tapp” of his phones (“How low has President Obama gone to tapp my phones during the very sacred election process.”) The charge evolved to claiming Obama’s national security adviser, Susan Rice, committed a crime by “unmasking” Trump officials surveilled in talks with foreign leaders.

Trump seems to return to the charge in times of stress. He has renewed the charge, calling it “OBAMAGATE!” When asked by a reporter what crime he was claiming Obama had committed this time, Trump replied, “You know what the crime is. The crime is very obvious to everybody.” [...]

For Trump, “Obamagate” is a wish-fulfillment fantasy. He believes every president does, and should, use the Department of Justice as a weapon to protect his friends and harass his rivals. The greatest ire he has reserved for any of his underlings is the yearslong grudge he’s held against Jeff Sessions for the sin of following the black-letter law requiring his recusal from the Russia investigation, and refusing Trump’s entreaties to violate the law by un-recusing himself.

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Important stories to help you make sense of it all

Ed Yong/Atlantic:

Why the Coronavirus Is So Confusing

A guide to making sense of a problem that is now too big for any one person to fully comprehend

Why do some people get really sick, but others do not? Are the models too optimistic or too pessimistic? Exactly how transmissible and deadly is the virus? How many people have actually been infected? How long must social restrictions go on for? Why are so many questions still unanswered?

Done in parts, and hard to abbreviate (even though that’s what we do!)

��All of us who traveled with [Pence] were notified by the office of @VP the day before the trip that wearing of masks was required by the @MayoClinic and to prepare accordingly,� tweeted Herman, who covered the trip as part of his rotation as one of the pool reporters https://t.co/4IQTHwg90B

— Lisa Rein (@Reinlwapo) May 1, 2020

Michelle Cottle/NY Times:

Republicans, It’s Too Late to Back Away From Trump

G.O.P. lawmakers have enabled all of the president’s misadventures up to now. They can’t disavow his response to the coronavirus.

Even so, it has been their response to Mr. Trump’s handling of this pandemic that has shown what his Republican enablers are truly made of. Day after day, the president has come before the nation in news briefings and on Twitter, spreading not simply nonsense but dangerous nonsense — downplaying the risks of the virus, peddling quack remedies, misrepresenting the availability of diagnostic testing and protective equipment, picking fights with governors struggling to protect their states and, of course, deflecting blame onto everyone from the World Health Organization to the Obama administration.

Through it all, few Republicans have managed to muster even a peep of protest. And they have been happy to promote the president’s story that everything is China’s fault — just as they have supported his efforts to turn an apolitical pandemic into a partisan battle between red and blue states.

Here's a very important story from @moorefromcj. �If we don�t listen to the experts in infectious disease, epidemiology and pandemic preparedness, and follow their lead, we will all be contributing to the spread of this virus," says UM Dr. Howard Markel. https://t.co/AaiAs6eFtA

— Susan J. Demas ðÂ�Â�Â� (@sjdemas) April 30, 2020

WaPo:

Republican-led states signal they could strip workers’ unemployment benefits if they don’t return to work, sparking fresh safety fears

The message to workers is “endanger your life or starve,” critics say

The threats have been loudest among Republican leaders in recent days, reflecting their anxious attempts to jump-start local economic recovery roughly two months after most businesses shut their doors. In Iowa, for example, state officials even have posted a public call for companies to get in touch if an “employee refuses to return to work.”

Hey, GOP, people vote in November.

NEW: Republican official says on private conference call that voters aren�t giving GOP senators sufficient credit for pandemic aid. "The numbers are good for our folks, but they are not as great as they are for the governors."https://t.co/V6GBEhNGw8

— Sean Sullivan (@WaPoSean) April 30, 2020

Hmmmmm… 🤔 🤔 🤔

Three stories, three outlets, about Trump being told he is losing:

CNNTrump erupts at campaign manager as reelection stress overflows WaPo: Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden NY Times: Polls Had Trump Stewing, and Lashing Out at His Own Campaign

I'm guessing the 'drink bleach' story is peaking https://t.co/azooGAtNfq pic.twitter.com/p2SsronJ5i

— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) April 30, 2020

James Hohmann/WaPo:

Five important coronavirus questions that scientists and doctors are racing to answer

“Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, Calif., said that remdesivir ‘isn’t a breakthrough drug,’ and that the totality of evidence, with its mix of good and bad results, offers a ‘confusing picture.’ But he said the drug is a ‘good start,’’” per Chris and Laurie. “A number of leaked trial results and small remdesivir studies without placebo controls have whipsawed stock markets in recent weeks … The medical journal The Lancet Wednesday released results of a negative clinical trial of remdesivir in China that was terminated early because investigators, as the China outbreak subsided, were unable to recruit all of the 453 patients they sought. In the 237 patients that did participate in the placebo-controlled trial, there was no statistically significant difference in time to clinical improvement, the Chinese investigators reported. Deaths were roughly the same.

New today, we laid out two cases against Trump for his current response and asked people which bothered them more. By a pretty clear margin, that Trump's words and actions are putting people's health/lives at risk is more concerning than lack of leadership and plan. pic.twitter.com/Cu8242sLDZ

— Nick Gourevitch (@nickgourevitch) April 30, 2020

Gabe Sherman/Vanity Fair:

Inside Donald Trump and Jared Kushner’s Two Months of Magical Thinking

Obsessed with impeachment and their enemies and worried about the stock market, the president and his son-in-law scapegoated HHS Secretary Alex Azar, and treated the coronavirus as mostly a political problem as it moved through the country.
When the coronavirus exploded out of China, Kushner was the second most powerful person in the West Wing, exerting influence over virtually every significant decision, from negotiating trade deals to 2020 campaign strategy to overseeing Trump’s impeachment defense. “Jared is running everything. He’s the de facto president of the United States,” a former White House official told me. The previous chief of staff John Kelly, who’d marginalized Kushner, was long gone, and Mick Mulvaney, a virtual lame duck by that point, let Kushner run free. “Jared treats Mick like the help,” a prominent Republican said.

Jared Kushner called 1m infections, 60k dead, a shuttered economy, 25m+ unemployed, and 3-6% drop in GDP for now with much larger likely to come "a great success story." If our leaders refuse to see where we're failing, they can't help us get better.

— Ian Bassin (@ianbassin) April 29, 2020

Michael J Stern/USA today:

Why I'm skeptical about Reade's sexual assault claim against Biden: Ex-prosecutor

If we must blindly accept every allegation of sexual assault, the #MeToo movement is just a hit squad. And it's too important to be no more than that.

When women make allegations of sexual assault, my default response is to believe them. But as the news media have investigated Reade’s allegations, I’ve become increasingly skeptical. Here are some of the reasons why:

►Delayed reporting … twice. Reade waited 27 years to publicly report her allegation that Biden sexually assaulted her. I understand that victims of sexual assault often do not come forward immediately because recounting the most violent and degrading experience of their lives, to a bunch of strangers, is the proverbial insult to injury. That so many women were willing to wait in my dreary government office, as I ran to the restroom to pull myself together after listening to their stories, is a testament to their fortitude.

Even so, it is reasonable to consider a 27-year reporting delay when assessing the believability of any criminal allegation. More significant perhaps, is Reade’s decision to sit down with a newspaper last year and accuse Biden of touching her in a sexual way that made her uncomfortable — but neglect to mention her claim that he forcibly penetrated her with his fingers.

As a lawyer and victims’ rights advocate, Reade was better equipped than most to appreciate that dramatic changes in sexual assault allegations severely undercut an accuser’s credibility — especially when the change is from an uncomfortable shoulder touch to vaginal penetration.

►Implausible explanation for changing story. When Reade went public with her sexual assault allegation in March, she said she wanted to do it in an interview with The Union newspaper in California last April. She said the reporter’s tone made her feel uncomfortable and "I just really got shut down” and didn't tell the whole story.

It is hard to believe a reporter would discourage this kind of scoop. Regardless, it's also hard to accept that it took Reade 12 months to find another reporter eager to break that bombshell story. This unlikely explanation damages her credibility.

Also:

This seems like the endgame here, push Biden to open up the papers and then rummage around (a la Hillary�s pilfered emails) and then find stuff to hit him with. https://t.co/SHWknKjePM

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) April 30, 2020

An underappreciated stat:

When it comes to the #2020election, about 1/3 say #coronavirus will be either major (14%) or minor factor (20%) in their vote. About two-thirds (64%) say they've already made up their minds. That �swing� group related to the pandemic could be determinative https://t.co/st1Cr5iv1f

— Domenico Montanaro (@DomenicoNPR) April 29, 2020