Earth hears a possible signal: We are here, we are here, we are here

Posted on by Mark Sumner

In a year that has brought an impeachment, a raging pandemic, far too many tragic deaths, a hopeful election, and months of increasingly aggressive sedition aimed at overturning the government of the United States, could there still be a story to top them all. Well … maybe. 

The biggest story of 2020 might be one that didn’t hit the press until mid-December. Or it could be nothing. Because back in April and May, for a combined period of 30 hours, scientists at the Parkes Observatory in Australia listened in on a signal. A radio signal. One that they believed to be coming from the sun's nearest neighbor, Proxima Centauri. The nature of that signal could rock humanity’s beliefs about the universe and introduce perhaps the most groundbreaking discovery in history. Or it might have been someone warming a burrito. Despite what the wild-haired guy says on cable, it’s not aliens, because it’s never aliens. But the longer people have looked, the more of the “easy explanations” have been eliminated.

The story first leaked to The Guardian on Dec. 18. That the researchers involved, and those carrying out the analysis, sat on the data for eight months without spilling the beans makes it clear they understood exactly the reaction that comes any time someone pops up claiming to have discovered a possible sign of intelligent life in space. There will be jokes. The words “little” and “green” will be used. And skepticism tends to run right past the bounds of appropriate into dismissive.

There are very, very (and … very) good reasons to be skeptical. Not least of all because several past natural phenomena have first been thought to be potential signals of intelligence before astronomers and physicists figured out just how “clever” nonliving matter could be. In the most cited example, pulsars—regular points producing rapidly repeating patterns of “signals” at both radio and other wavelengths—turned out not to be either massive transmitters or some spectacular variety of space pharos. Instead they are the rapidly spinning neutron star cores left behind by exploded giant (but not supergiant) stars. Which kind of makes it not all that surprising that it took a bit for someone to find the explanation.

In another famous (or infamous) case, what had appeared to be a set of signals recurred so frequently that they were given a name: perytons. These signals kept returning over and over for 17 years, baffling scientists until the installation of a new instrument revealed that the mystery signals actually came from a microwave oven at the facility. And what facility would that be? Why, Parkes Observatory in Australia. That was just five years ago.

Oh yeah. You better believe they are checking everyone’s lunch schedule.

Another good reason to be skeptical of this report is that the researchers involved seem to have found exactly what they were looking for. This data was collected by the Breakthrough Listen project, a SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) project founded in part by Stephen Hawking and funded primarily by Israeli-Russian tech billionaire Yuri Milner. The signal itself was first detected by a student, Shane Smith, who tagged it as BLC1, for “Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1.” That’s right. This is the first candidate they’ve found.

Anyone who stumbles across the very thing they hoped to locate, and does so practically in their own backyard, has to be held to quite a high standard of proof.

However, as Scientific American reports, after months of wading through the data, searching for possible sources of interference, and reviewing the contents of the signal, the scientists involved remain hopeful. The signal appears to come from a point source at distance rather than something close at hand. It also appears to be quite narrow in bandwidth, which would be somewhat unusual for a natural source. Finally, not only does the signal appear to originate from the area of Proxima Centauri, the researchers believe it shows signs of a regular shift that might be expected if the source was actually a planet orbiting that star.

As it happens, Proxima Centauri is quite a complex little system. It’s a red dwarf star, the most common kind of star in the universe, quite a bit smaller and cooler than our sun. In fact, it’s so small and cool that, despite being the nearest star to our own, it can’t be seen by the naked eye. (It also can’t be seen at all from the Northern Hemisphere, so plan a trip and bring at least a good pair of binoculars.)

This small star is believed to  orbit around the binary star Alpha Centauri A and Alpha Centauri B. (Proxima is also known as Alpha Centauri C.) Those stars are larger yellow stars, more similar in size and temperature to the sun. Exactly what that orbit looks like, or how long it’s been going on, is the cause for a lot of computation and a lot of frustration. (Read Three Body Problem from Chinese science fiction writer Liu Cixin if you want to understand more about why this is so difficult to suss out.)

Little red Proxima is known to have at least two planets which, for perfectly sound planet-hunter reasons, are known as Proxima B and Proxima C. Proxima C is about 7 times the mass of Earth, making it roughly the same size as Neptune. However, it’s not clear if the planet is actually a gas giant or just the kind of oversized rocky world known as a “super Earth.”

Proxima B is where it really gets interesting. The planet is located very close to the star, much closer than Mercury is to the Sun. So close, in fact, that Proxima B’s “year” is just 11 days long. However, because Proxima Centauri is so much smaller and cooler than our sun, this close orbit places Proxima B squarely in the “habitable zone.” Which means nothing except that the level of radiation received by the planet is such that it could potentially have liquid water on the surface. Water is something that scientists believe is critical to everything we understand as life. Proxima B is also not a lot larger than Earth—about 1.17 times the mass of Earth. As far as Earth-like exoplanets go, Proxima B is a pretty decent candidate.

And, in interstellar terms, it’s right next door. Like right next door. This is absolutely the closest star out there. Why, it’s so close that if the Voyager 1 probe happened to be aimed in the right direction (it’s not), it would pass by Proxima in just … 71,000 years. 

Space: It’s big.

There are reasons to be dismissive of the idea that there could be life on Proxima B. For one thing, red dwarf stars may be smaller than yellow stars like our sun, but they also tend to be rather grumpy. Red dwarf stars have frequent storms and eruptions that would hit a close-orbiting planet like Proxima B with so many energetic particles it might quickly strip away any atmosphere. Not all scientists think this is the case, but if there’s going to be life around red dwarf stars, it would take some mechanisms we don’t yet understand. In Proxima’s case, there is also the complication of that maybe-orbit around the Alpha Centauri binary star, which could cause serious instability over time both for the red star and its planets.

Breakthrough Listen has been going to sites around the globe, buying up time on radio telescopes, and listening in for signals like what seems to have been detected at Proxima. It is definitely the hottest show in the whole of the many decades of SETI. So, as might be expected, SETI.org is … completely skeptical. Their latest news release contains what amounts to a sneering dismissal of the possible signal from Proxima Centauri. 

Besides emphasizing that this is only a candidate, the biggest thrust of the article is just how unlikely it would be to encounter intelligent life at the next system over. Not just intelligent life, but life at a technological stage so similar to our own that it’s using radio signals that we can detect and possibly identify. All of which is a pretty good point. In fact, the director of Breakthrough Listen has announced that the signals are “likely interference” that will soon be explained. 

Still, as SETI researcher Franck Marchis says in his conclusion … 

2020 has been a crazy year on so many levels, even in the field of SETI. After the mysterious appearance of monoliths and the announcement of the galactic federation, we now have BLC1, a curious and mysterious signal that might—or might not—have come from Proxima Centauri. It’s probably not alien and we will confirm this soon. Of course, as a SETI Institute scientist, nothing would please me more than to be proven wrong.

Trump and the right are buzzing with hatred toward Hunter Biden … and Bill Barr

Posted on by Mark Sumner

To be absolutely clear: Bill Barr is a terrible attorney general who has used his position to grossly distort the whole purpose of the Justice Department. He auditioned for the role with a letter claiming the Russia investigation was illegal, substituted his own “summary” for the findings of the actual Mueller report, and personally signaled for his prison guard shock troops to begin a violent attack on unarmed protesters. Barr has spent most of the last two years trying to fulfill Donald Trump’s every conspiracy theory dream by appointing special investigators, providing an endless stream of disinformation to right-wing media, and traveling the world in an attempt to find an ally willing to roast U.S. intelligence agencies. And all of that is on top of Barr’s previous star turn in which he played a central role in dismissing charges resulting from Iran-Contra. He’s a bad attorney general, a bad American, and simply a bad man.

But just because Barr is determinedly malevolent, and saved Trump from what should have been an impeachment over the plain fact that his campaign engaged in every form of cooperation with the Russian government in order to subvert the outcome of a U.S. election, it doesn’t mean that Trump is always going to be happy with him. And now, in the twilight of both their careers, Trump is increasingly treating Barr as an enemy.

In Trump’s mind, there are only two possible roles anyone can serve: Completely subservient bootlicker, or infuriating opponent. There is no in between.

So the fact that Barr didn’t wholeheartedly join in with Rudy Giuliani and his parade of Hunter Biden laptops as confirmed by blind shop owners before the election had already made Barr suspect. Trump repeatedly tweeted a mixture of disdain and distaste for Barr in the weeks before the election as it became clear that, unlike 2016, there was not going to be some last-minute statement from the DOJ or FBI to provide Trump a last-minute vote infusion. And now a story from The Wall Street Journal has Trump hammering away at Barr again while Trump supporters are calling Barr a traitor and Republican senators are demanding yet another very special counsel. 

The claims from the WSJ began with a story in which Hunter Biden admitted that his federal income taxes are under investigation. Of course, Donald Trump has claimed that he could not reveal his tax returns for the last ever because he’s perennially under audit. It’s also widely known that Trump’s taxes are the subject of investigations by the State of New York. However, what’s routine for Trump is apparently supposed to be scandalous for Joe Biden’s surviving son—a son who will have no role in the upcoming administration. The investigation into Hunter Biden’s taxes apparently predates both Barr and Trump’s phone call to Ukraine but is said to be restricted to tax issues and “doesn’t implicate other members of his family or the president-elect.”

But what has the whole right wing in an uproar is the idea that … Barr knew. Barr knew, and he didn’t make a statement that Trump could use before the election. For Trump, this isn’t just an excuse to attack Barr for failing to come through the clinch, but also to claim that Biden’s term is going to be “so plagued by scandal” that the Supreme Court just might as well hand the election to Trump and save everyone some time and embarrassment.

And of course, Barr did know. He knew that while Hunter Biden’s taxes were being investigated by an office of the department he controlled. Barr also knew that no crime has been alleged, no one has been indicted, and that nothing appeared to be connected to the actual candidate for office. A fuming Trump supporter inside the DOJ also complained that Barr knew about another investigation involving Hunter Biden, an investigation that the WSJ was quick to highlight … before reaching the point where it admits that its sources indicate Hunter was “never a specific target for criminal prosecution.” Connected to the first investigation, this appears to be more a matter of looking at a bank that may have made some shady deals rather than anything specifically done by Hunter Biden.

So what Barr knew was that Hunter Biden’s taxes were being examined in one investigation, and Biden was not the target of a second investigation. Still, Barr’s failure to jump up and down and scream about a family of criminals is apparently all that was required to toss him from the good graces of Trump and his supporters.

Of course Barr may think that trying to at least approximate normal behavior on this one topic at a time when Trump is about to depart center stage might be enough to get him accepted back into normal society. He’s going to be disappointed.

Republicans in both Michigan and Pennsylvania join Trump scheme to halt certification of vote

Posted on by Mark Sumner

Donald Trump is seeking to overturn the lawful results of the 2020 election and install himself as dictator for life. There’s no doubt about that part. The whole idea is outlandish, infuriating, and should be such a remote possibility that it can be dismissed out of hand. Except, after everything that has happened over the last four years, it’s really quite difficult to completely rule out this daylight coup. That’s especially true because Republicans keep lining up for the role of minions in this criminal scheme.

On Saturday, more Republicans picked up their democracy-burying shovels. That includes the chair of the Michigan GOP and Pennsylvania Rep. Mike Kelly, both of whom are taking different routes to the same goal—disenfranchising hundreds of thousands of Black voters so that Donald Trump can eek out a “victory.” And just to underscore that the rot goes deep, Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel has added her support to the effort. 

At first glance, the letter from Michigan Republican Chair Laura Cox should be the easiest to simply wave away. Cox has absolutely nothing to do with tallying the votes, certifying the results, or selecting the electors. So on the surface, her demand that the state board of canvassers “adjourn for 14 days” to conduct an audit and address “credible reports of procedural irregularities" that do not exist should be moving directly to the nearest circular file. But it’s this effort where McDaniel has also signed her name, making it clear that this—in addition to wining and dining Republican legislators—is an officially sanctioned part of Trump’s plan to derail the process in a state where he lost by 155,000 votes.

The second effort, with Rep. Kelly as the headliner, is an actual court filing. It claims that the expansion of mail in ballots under a Pennsylvania law called “Act 77” is unconstitutional, and as a remedy, asks that all mail in ballots in the state, with the exception of military ballots, be thrown out. That would be roughly 2.5 million ballots discarded—about 1.6 million of them Democratic ballots. It also amounts to well over a third of all ballots cast in Pennsylvania, which might put Kelly in the running for all-time disenfranchisement king. 

When listing members of Congress who are the biggest Trump lackeys, Kelly’s name doesn’t come up often. But considering that Kelly compared the impeachment of Trump to the attack on Pearl Harbor, and way back in 2017 told his constituents that Barack Obama was continuing to run a “shadow government” that was undermining Trump … maybe he should move up in the rankings. He certainly will after this stunt. Joining Kelly in his lawsuit are a collection of failed candidates for state office in Pennsylvania. and a scattering of “regular” voters who just don’t want Black people to vote.

Kelly’s lawsuit doesn’t just suggest that millions of votes be discarded. In case there’s some problem with working out how that would affect the outcome, he has a ready alternative that would prevent the need for anyone to break out a calculator. Instead he asked the judge to “direct that the Pennsylvania General Assembly choose Pennsylvania’s electors.”

While he’s at it, Kelly asks the court to pay for his expenses for trying to throw out the votes of millions of Pennsylvanians. Because why the hell not?

The assault on the 2020 election is more dangerous than anything else Trump has done

Posted on by Mark Sumner

Way over on the farthest left, there’s a cliff; a dark potential called communist totalitarianism. The horrors that wait beyond that cliff have been more than adequately demonstrated by everyone from Joseph Stalin to Pol Pot, and progressives of every nation are extremely aware that the pathways to that cliff must be constantly challenged, heavily patrolled, and always eyed with concern. Likewise on the right, there’s an yawning gyre called fascist totalitarianism. The edges of that pit are lined with the bones of millions, and whether the followers wear brown shirts or black, this system has proven to be extraordinarily effective at hastening a nation from rationality into murderous dystopia.

Only there’s a difference when it comes to how the specters on the left and demons on the right have been handled. Because for decades, but especially within the last four years, the right has worked to take their ogre and simply relocate it to the left; to describe fascism not as something that belongs to them, but as “liberal fascism.” And there’s a reason for this that goes well beyond not just wanted to have themselves associated with goose-stepping men in armbands—a reason that plays directly into what’s happening right now following the 2020 election.

On Monday, Attorney General William Barr ordered the Department of Justice to investigate claims of election fraud for which there is no evidence. Sen. Lindsey Graham said the only reason why Republicans lose races is because Democrats cheat. And the two Republican senators from Georgia attacked their own state over claims that they failed to run a proper election, providing no more evidence than that they allowed Donald Trump to lose.

All of this stands in stark contrast to every election in recent history. Even the most rancorous campaigns of the past have swallowed their pride, made that concession call, and done so swiftly, because they understand the cost of not conceding.

That Republicans would so joyfully attack the machinery of free elections seems extraordinary, even considering the efforts applied for more than a century to make sure that only the right kind of white people get to the polls in the first place. But it shouldn’t be. After all, elections are just another institution, and Republicans have more than adequately demonstrated that they can smash, or subvert, any institution designed to act as a check on power. See impeachment. See the courts. See the Senate report that was quietly released admitting that Trump’s campaign did in fact have repeated contact with Russian agents, regularly coordinated with Russian objectives, and made promises to Russia in exchange for assistance. Nothing came of that. And why should it, considering that Republicans had just voted that they didn’t even have to hear the witnesses before declaring Trump innocent of anything, anywhere, at any time.

The reason that right-wing media is saturated with claims that fascism is “of the left” is simple enough: If there is no gyre, no demons, nothing dark waiting out there beyond the current bounds, then there is never any reason to stop moving to the right. Fling open Overton’s window and let the right winds blow. There are no paths on the right that need to be guarded, nothing bad to watch out for. It’s all good stuff over there.

Historically, of course, this is nonsense. The whole concept of left and right, for more than a century, was specifically designed to describe the space where democracies could operate between those two walls. Fascism is intrinsically of the right. To claim otherwise would certainly be a shock to actual fascists, who not only railed against the left, but did not hesitate to lock up their citizens for the crime of expressing socialist sympathies—when they didn’t simply kill them en masse.

But that’s also part of the goal of the fascism relocation project. It doesn’t mean to assert there’s nothing to fear on the right; it’s an invitation to a new dimension, one that takes the far right off the axis to place it above politics as usual. Once that’s done, everything is permissible, anything is excusable in the defense of moving the nation more toward that wonderful, always brighter, place on the right—even if it means tearing down the whole engine of democracy. 

Even a Republican governor isn’t safe from Trump followers on an anti-good government rampage

Posted on by Mark Sumner

At this point, the number of politicians being threatened by Donald Trump-supporting extremists could merit its own news channel, and its own division at the FBI. There has been the scheme to kidnap and/or murder Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by right-wing militia groups egged on by Trump; there’s been the MAGA bomber who mailed out 16 bombs to Democratic leaders including Joe Biden and Kamala Harris; there’s been a plan to kill Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam; and there have been at least two threats to assassinate Joe Biden, one of which brought the AR-15-carrying assassin practically to Biden’s doorstep. But the latest target of the extremists is Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine. As in Republican Gov. Mike DeWine.

How did a Republican governor end up on the hit list? Tyranny. Tyranny in the form of trying to make reasoned decisions about how to best address the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic. With cases in Ohio at their highest level in the entire pandemic, DeWine hasn’t instituted a statewide lockdown, but has been warning those in the hardest hit areas to restrict their movements voluntarily. But DeWine’s refusal to remove all restrictions, and his support for wearing masks, is more than some in the state can bear. Ohio state house members from DeWine’s own party have launched an impeachment movement against the governor for the “madness” of instituting a statewide mask mandate. That effort has fueled another—one that means to arrest DeWine and then “permanently exile or execute” him.

As the Ohio Capital Journal reports, DeWine was at a conference to discuss allocation of funds from the CARES Act when he was told of the plot to conduct a citizen's arrest by Ohioans who were just done with having a government that tried to save their lives. 

State police were tipped off to the scheme when someone who had signed a petition calling for DeWine’s arrest got a phone call from someone who was ready to do more than just scribble his name on paper. The caller made it clear that there would be an attempt to arrest DeWine at his home over the weekend—on a charge of tyranny, of course. The caller reportedly asked if they wanted to take part in an attempt to arrest the governor at his home later that weekend and try him for allegations of tyranny. 

Even at that point, the person who eventually tipped off the police said he “absolutely” believed that DeWine needed to be arrested and said they were “excited” about the opportunity to take part. It was only when the caller made it clear they intended to follow the arrest with a kind of drumhead court martial followed by the immediate application of potential penalties, including death, that the tipster got nervous. The idea that the intention was to kill DeWine finally caused the tipster to contact the police. It doesn’t seem that anyone connected to the scheme has yet been arrested or charged, but state police are apparently investigating.

Ohio was also the origin site for the scheme to kidnap Whitmer. The same group of men who organized that scheme were also involved in the plan to target to target Northam. It’s not clear if there is also a connection with those plotting to execute DeWine for the tyranny of asking people to wear masks.

In the spring, protesters complaining about DeWine’s restrictions surrounded the state house while wearing Proud Boys T-shirts and carrying anti-Semitic signs. Those protest came the day after Donald Trump tweeted calls to “liberate” states that were then in the first weeks of restrictions meant to slow the spread of COVID-19.

Hey! A second pic of these cool dudes from today. #makethemfamous pic.twitter.com/5y8UCJuvNQ

— Rep. Casey Weinstein (@RepWeinstein) April 19, 2020

All of this illustrates that while Trumpism may have taken root in the Republican Party, even Republicans aren’t immune to being found wanting of … purity.

Even a Republican governor isn’t safe from Trump followers on an anti-good government rampage

Posted on by Mark Sumner

At this point, the number of politicians being threatened by Donald Trump-supporting extremists could merit its own news channel, and its own division at the FBI. There has been the scheme to kidnap and/or murder Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by right-wing militia groups egged on by Trump; there’s been the MAGA bomber who mailed out 16 bombs to Democratic leaders including Joe Biden and Kamala Harris; there’s been a plan to kill Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam; and there have been at least two threats to assassinate Joe Biden, one of which brought the AR-15-carrying assassin practically to Biden’s doorstep. But the latest target of the extremists is Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine. As in Republican Gov. Mike DeWine.

How did a Republican governor end up on the hit list? Tyranny. Tyranny in the form of trying to make reasoned decisions about how to best address the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic. With cases in Ohio at their highest level in the entire pandemic, DeWine hasn’t instituted a statewide lockdown, but has been warning those in the hardest hit areas to restrict their movements voluntarily. But DeWine’s refusal to remove all restrictions, and his support for wearing masks, is more than some in the state can bear. Ohio state house members from DeWine’s own party have launched an impeachment movement against the governor for the “madness” of instituting a statewide mask mandate. That effort has fueled another—one that means to arrest DeWine and then “permanently exile or execute” him.

As the Ohio Capital Journal reports, DeWine was at a conference to discuss allocation of funds from the CARES Act when he was told of the plot to conduct a citizen's arrest by Ohioans who were just done with having a government that tried to save their lives. 

State police were tipped off to the scheme when someone who had signed a petition calling for DeWine’s arrest got a phone call from someone who was ready to do more than just scribble his name on paper. The caller made it clear that there would be an attempt to arrest DeWine at his home over the weekend—on a charge of tyranny, of course. The caller reportedly asked if they wanted to take part in an attempt to arrest the governor at his home later that weekend and try him for allegations of tyranny. 

Even at that point, the person who eventually tipped off the police said he “absolutely” believed that DeWine needed to be arrested and said they were “excited” about the opportunity to take part. It was only when the caller made it clear they intended to follow the arrest with a kind of drumhead court martial followed by the immediate application of potential penalties, including death, that the tipster got nervous. The idea that the intention was to kill DeWine finally caused the tipster to contact the police. It doesn’t seem that anyone connected to the scheme has yet been arrested or charged, but state police are apparently investigating.

Ohio was also the origin site for the scheme to kidnap Whitmer. The same group of men who organized that scheme were also involved in the plan to target to target Northam. It’s not clear if there is also a connection with those plotting to execute DeWine for the tyranny of asking people to wear masks.

In the spring, protesters complaining about DeWine’s restrictions surrounded the state house while wearing Proud Boys T-shirts and carrying anti-Semitic signs. Those protest came the day after Donald Trump tweeted calls to “liberate” states that were then in the first weeks of restrictions meant to slow the spread of COVID-19.

Hey! A second pic of these cool dudes from today. #makethemfamous pic.twitter.com/5y8UCJuvNQ

— Rep. Casey Weinstein (@RepWeinstein) April 19, 2020

All of this illustrates that while Trumpism may have taken root in the Republican Party, even Republicans aren’t immune to being found wanting of … purity.

Science candidates are standing by to defeat COVID-19, improve health care, and fight climate change

Posted on by Mark Sumner

After four years of a government run by people who hate climate science, environmental science, medical science, and just … science, it might be nice to have someone in office who doesn’t just respect science but understands science. That’s why 3.14 Action actively recruits candidates with a science and medical background and helps them get the training they need to run for office. That includes seven members of the House who took office in 2018.

In the 2020 election, there may be more candidates that you realize aren’t just respectful of science, but can genuinely lay claim to the title “scientist.” On the Senate side, there’s the obvious science candidate in Arizona’s engineer, aviator, and astronaut Mark Kelly. However, Kansas Senate candidate Barbara Bollier is actually Dr. Barbara Bollier—potentially the first woman physician to take a seat in the Senate. Up in Alaska, Al Gross may be known as a commercial fisherman, but he’s also Dr. Allan Gross, orthopedic surgeon. And while most people may know John Hickenlooper from his previous role as the governor of Colorado, before that he swung a rock hammer as a geologist (go, #TeamGeologists!).

3.14’s House slate is an even impressive group, but here are a couple of stand-out candidates in important races that are right on the edge of victory: Dr. Nancy Goroff (NY-01) and Dr. Cameron Webb (VA-05).

Like Bollier, Nancy Goroff has another chance to check off a “first” that should have been achieved years—make that decades—ago. Believe it or not, if Goroff beats out Lee Zeldin, who was the key Republican congressman in running Donald Trump’s impeachment defense, she would be the first female PhD scientist in Congress. That’s exciting. And sad. And enraging. And should be pretty damn energizing for people who want to support women, or science, or both. Voters might also find motivation in defeating a Republican congressman who has been nicknamed “Trump’s defender,” and who really was the head of Trump’s impeachment defense. There’s also the little fact that Zeldin has praised Trump’s handling of COVID-19, which might be a thing in New York state.

Goroff is the chair of the Chemistry Department at Stony Brook University, where she pioneered research on improving renewable energy. She also worked within the university system to expand health care to more of the university’s staff. So there’s a chance to replace a guy who is actively feeding into Trump’s lies about COVID-19 with someone who has improved health care for others even before taking office.

The latest polls have Goroff and Zeldin literally nose to nose. And that’s huge. When Goroff first entered the race, she was down by double digits. Then seven, then five, then … deadlocked.

As a scientist and a teacher, Goroff would be a huge upgrade. And that “no women PhDs in Congress” line? That really needs to be crossed. Immediately, if not sooner.

When it comes to dealing with COVID-19, Cameron Webb has been right on the front lines. He’s a practicing physician who has been treating coronavirus patients while conducting his campaign. His wife also happens to be a ER doctor and an author who has written a children’s book about living with COVID-19. 

There have been a thousand articles about the experts on public health policy who were involved in President Obama’s administration, and who Trump let go. Webb is one of those people. If Trump didn’t think that he was better and smarter than all the experts, Webb might have been tapped to be at the White House right now helping to plan effective policy. Instead, that job went to noted health expert Jared Kushner and some of his investment banker buddies. It’s just possible that actual doctors and experts like Webb might have … not killed over 200,000 Americans.

Webb is currently the director of health policy and equity at the University of Virginia. His experience in public health makes him exactly the kind of candidate the nation needs at the moment, and he would be a fantastic asset in Congress.

Webb’s opponent is Bob Good. Good is a former fundraiser for Jerry Falwell’s Liberty University who displaced a sitting Republican Congressman because that soon-to-be former congressman, Denver Riggleman, failed to be against same-sex marriage. Conservative Republican voters couldn’t stand the idea of people being treated equally, so they replaced Riggleman with hardline conservative Good. Cameron is a well-known inspirational speaker, and it would have been great to see him debate this issue with Good … only there was no debate, because Good backed out. 

Just a month ago, Good’s support among conservatives had him running ahead of Webb. But in the last few weeks, Webb has taken the lead. Still, it’s a narrow lead. 

Both Webb and Goroff are heading toward the final days of the campaign in tight races, but with momentum on their side. If polls keep moving in the right direction, this could be not just a blue wave, but a blue science wave.

Giuliani’s smear on Hunter Biden is so ridiculous, Fox News passed on it … then covered it 24/7

Posted on by Mark Sumner

Once upon a time—also know as 2019—Donald Trump tried to blackmail the president of Ukraine into making false claims about Hunter Biden. Trump got caught, got impeached, and got not even a slap on the wrist from Senate Republicans who were willing to allow Trump to do anything in exchange for a flood of conservative judges. After all, when you’ve already waved off the Hatch Act, ignored federal laws over nepotism, and blown off an endless stream of lies … what’s a little extortion of an ally for political advantage?

When Trump didn’t get what he wanted from from Volodymyr Zelensky, he put both U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr and Rudy Giuliani on the case. Barr grabbed U.S. attorney John Durham and opened up an investigation that saw him flying around the world in an attempt to find someone reputable who would lend the slightest credence to Trump’s incredible claims. Giuliani … just skipped out on the “reputable.” Instead, he grabbed a pair of foot soldiers for a Russian oligarch, latched onto some officials who had been kicked out for corruption, and worked directly with an “active Russian agent” to produce a whole series of false claims and fake evidence. 

That brings us to now. Barr’s efforts have apparently come up dry. One part of his investigation has already shut down, Durham’s top assistant has resigned, and there’s no report worth even a patently false summary before Election Day. The Giuliani side has produced a hard drive. A hard drive supposedly dropped off in Delaware by a man who lived in California, at a shop owned by a vocal Trump supporter, where the security footage was mysteriously wiped, the blind shop owner could not identify the person who dropped it off, there was no name or contact information provided, and no one ever returned for it. 

Giuliani’s story is so ridiculous that both Fox News and the New York Post reporter who was forced to write it both disowned it. After years of trying to smear Biden, this really is the best they can do.

As Mediaite reports, the New York Post was hardly Giuliani’s first choice in trying to get this contemptible last-ditch effort into the media. It’s unclear how many other places he went first, but it is clear that he came to Fox News with his story of an unclaimed laptop. Fox News looked at the story, got out their 10-foot pole, and carefully pushed the whole pile back to Giuliani.

After all, this is far from the first time that Giuliani has come up with supposedly shocking information that just happens to support Trump’s every delusional claim. In September, it became clear that Giuliani was working closely with U.S. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo. It’s since come out that the packet of information that Pompeo shared with Republican lawmakers, but not with Democrats, did not come from sources within the State Department. He was simply laundering pages for Giuliani. Naturally, Trump’s personal attorney could not stop bragging about this. At the start of October, he told CNN that he was the source for the Biden information in Republican’s hands. 

This information was enough that Louie Gohmert and Paul Gosar, DDS were willing to scrawl their signatures on a letter to the Justice Department, along with nine other Republicans out of 250 in the House and Senate. But the many, many places where the Giuliani’s claims weren’t just wholly unbelievable but clearly connected to a known Republican disinformation campaign against Biden did bother a few other people.  

Not only is there the little problem of there being absolutely no provenance concerning the hard drive itself—everything about the story of where it was found has holes the size of ocean liners. The shop owner has given various accounts about how the laptop (or laptops, since he at one point claimed there were three), entered his shop; he’s been completely contradictory about how it came to the attention of the FBI; and when and how Giuliani became involved in the affair is as clear as mud. Also, there’s a little matter of how dates on the files found on the machine seem to be from months after the machine was supposedly dropped off.

But just because Fox News wouldn’t take it directly, that doesn’t mean that Rupert Murdoch wasn’t willing to step in to help out his pals. After the story was turned away from Fox News, it was shuffled over to the Murdoch-owned paper where New York Times reports reporter Bruce Golding was tasked with taking the documents, and Giuliani’s ravings, and turning them into an article. But once he heard the whole tale, Golding refused to put his name to the piece. So did other journalists in the Post news room … and this is a paper that just last year went with a front page emblazoned “Bezos exposes Pecker.”

Instead, the story eventually ran under the byline of Emma-Jo Morris. Morris is a former booker for Sean Hannity’s show on Fox, who made the trip across to the Post just in time for Giuliani’s Russian fabrication to be her very first article. A second name on the article was Post reporter Gabrielle Fonrouge. Fonrouge’s name ended up there in the most efficient manner. The Post’s editors put it there, and didn’t tell Fonrouge until after it was published.

All of this works perfectly for Fox, for the Post, for Giuliani, for Trump, and most importantly, for Putin. Fox doesn’t have to front the story. With the story in the Post, Fox can report on it. They can ask Republicans to comment on it. They can construct great rambling opinions from Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity. The Post can then report on the comments their story is getting on Fox. Trump can retweet it all. Republicans in the House can cite all of the above as justification for demanding William Barr whip up a special investigator. And Vladimir Putin … can laugh. 

The ‘wet laptop’ story absolutely is a scandal, but it has nothing to do with Joe Biden

Posted on (Updated by Mark Sumner

An official in a foreign country stumbles on a briefcase left behind by his opposing number from another delegation. Sneaking a peak at the information inside, the official discovers that it contains not only the usual stacks of diplomatic reports, but secret information providing insight into an upcoming military operation. Immediately, the official rushes this information to his superiors who … have just fallen into one of the most timeworn traps of intelligence tradecraft. The “accidently” left-behind wallet, briefcase, or letter is an absolute classic of Soviet-era dezinformatsiya schemes.

In the argot of spies, a “cobbler” assembles a dezinformatsiya packet, accompanied by more truthful “litter” and “chicken feed” that makes it appear as if a deceptive document is real. If possible, the information is left where it’s handily accessible to the target of the dezinformatsiya campaign, but a special purpose “floater” may be used to pass the information along—often without that person understanding their role in the scheme. 

Now, substitute “hard drive” for “briefcase” and “email” for “document.” Because that’s exactly what happened on Wednesday as the New York Post ran a story about a soggy computer left behind by a mysterious stranger at a Delaware repair shop. That computer was supposed to kick off a scandal about Hunter Biden. But what it really proves is that Rudy Giuliani and Rupert Murdoch are neck-deep in a scheme to spread disinformation to the American public.

That the story of this left behind computer ran in the New York Post on Wednesday isn’t the sign of a successful disinformation campaign—it’s a clear signal of its abject failure.

According to the story, the computer was dropped off at a repair shop in April 2019—as in over a year and a half ago. The computer was left apparently without signing any form or even providing a name. In fact, the shop owner declared that because he is legally blind, he could not identify the person who brought in the supposedly water-damaged computer. However, that shop owner eventually concluded that it was Hunter Biden’s computer because … there was a sticker from the Beau Biden Foundation on the computer.

This shop owner has been identified as 44-year-old John Paul “Mac” Isaac. Isaac is a vocal Trump supporter whose social media profile is full of not just statements about voting for Trump, but also  comments about Joe Biden. That includes mention of a “Biden bubble” that keeps Biden from being affected by bad news. His social media also shows that Isaac likes to wear kilts, but that seems beside the point. 

In any case, Isaac is a Trump supporter who has been open about his disdain for Biden and his belief that the media goes easy with stories about Biden. Then in spring of 2019, a computer lands in his lap with a Biden sticker attached. 

What happens next is massively unclear, because in interviews Wednesday afternoon, Isaac gave completely contradictory statements about his follow-up actions. What seems to be clear is that at some later point, Isaac hooked up the hard drive, read the emails, and watched a video that supposedly shows Hunter Biden having sex with a prostitute while smoking crack. Apparently Isaac could see that much.

At some point between April and December, Isaac contacted the FBI. Or at least, that appears to be the case since the Post included an image of a Dec. 9, 2019 grand jury subpoena—though since that subpoena has the name blacked out and the objects to be provided are obscured, it’s only their word that it is actually connected to this incident. However, before giving the laptop to the FBI, Isaac first made a copy of the hard drive which, like his original perusal through the emails and videos, is very likely to have been a violation of Delaware privacy laws. It’s also worth noting that nothing Isaac did appears to be related to actually fixing the damaged laptop. 

At some point Isaac talks to Giuliani and eventually gives him a copy of the hard drive. But what’s extremely confusing is the order of any of these events. Did Isaac talk to Giuliani before or after he spoke with the FBI? Was it Giuliani who told Isaac to take the computer to the FBI? Taking one step back, why did a Delaware computer repair store owner think to call Giuliani in the first place, and how did he get in touch with Giuliani?

However it happened, Isaac made the copy at some point before December 2019. According to a Daily Beast interview, Isaac “switched back and forth” between saying that he contacted the FBI and saying the FBI contacted him. He also claimed that the FBI asked him for help in accessing the drive, though he didn’t indicate that the drive was encrypted or protected in any way. 

There’s are several huge missing pieces in this story. For example, what did Isaac say to the FBI? “Hello, someone brought in a computer, and I think it belongs to Beau Biden.” If so, why would the FBI say anything other than, “Then give it back?” Why would Beau Biden dropping off a wet laptop cause the FBI to have any interest at all?

This, then, is the “official” story from the Post and Giuliani: A mysterious stranger drops off a laptop at a shop belonging to a legally blind Trump supporter who has said disparaging things about Biden. Nine months later, the FBI asks for that computer. Then 10 months after that, Giuliani hands over to the New York Post what he says is a copy of that computer’s hard drive. In between those dates, we have nothing. Well, nothing except for more Facebook statements from Isaac, who does devote some time to saying that Trump’s impeachment is a sham, but says nothing at all about Hunter Biden’s crack-smoking video that he found on a computer left at his store. And we have a lot of statements from Giuliani during this period, many of them essentially identical to what will eventually appear in the Post story.

So … let’s look at this from a different angle.

Giuliani has spent over two years traveling back and forth to Ukraine, making promises that he had found red-hot information supporting Trump’s conspiracy theories about Hunter Biden. In the process, Giuliani has made numerous statements to the media—frequently in The New York Times—claiming that he has the “smoking gun” for Biden’s misdeeds. That included a letter supposedly showing that Biden had worked to protect Burisma holdings from investigation. Except that a few weeks later, a Ukrainian legislator admitted to making up the information to “curry favor with Trump and Giuliani.” The timeline of events showed that the story Giuliani was peddling was not even possible.

But at the same time Giuliani is waving letters in front of the media, someone is dropping off a computer at Isaac’s shop. Then nothing happens in April, or May, or June … nothing happens at all. Until for some reason Isaac decides to take a closer look at that computer. A reason like, perhaps, a phone call from someone who already knew what was on it. That someone might even suggest that Isaac contact the FBI, or they might contact the FBI and tell them to talk to Isaac, because the information now available has it both ways.

Even then, 10 months after the FBI has taken receipt of the laptop, nothing has happened. Christopher Wray is not on TV making an announcement about emails. The DOJ has not announced that it is opening an investigation. No one is talking about Hunter Biden’s laptop, dammit!

So with the clock ticking down to the election, Giuliani takes the hard drive straight to the one person he can trust to make a big deal about it: Rupert Murdoch. Murdoch then points a finger at a booker on Sean Hannity’s show, turning her into an instant editor for the paper he owns, the New York Post, and this brand spanking newly minted “journalist” then publishes Giuliani’s story.

That doesn’t make this an “October surprise.” This makes this an abject failure of a con job. Giuliani and Murdoch are absolutely not in the position they wanted to be at this point. In their ideal world, Emma-Jo Morris would be back in Hannity’s green room, booking Giuliani for his guest appearance to discuss the how The New York Times is running with the astounding breaking news that the FBI is looking into revelations from Hunter Biden’s laptop.

That did not happen. What happened instead was that Giuliani had to hand-carry the dezinformatsiya to Murdoch, and Murdoch had to get his mitts all over this mess to package it up for a multiday run on Fox and the Post. This is what is generally known as very, very, very bad tradecraft. 

This is a busted operation from a man whose whole Ukrainian adventure has been marked by:

What Rudy Giuliani and Rupert Murdoch have on their wrinkly fingers is a big ball of dirty tricks shading toward outright espionage, supported by Vladimir Putin.

Sorry, comrades, you’ve been caught.

Trump investigating idea of ‘loyal electors’ who will vote for him, regardless of election results

Posted on by Mark Sumner

There’s little doubt that Donald Trump is willing to do anything at all to hold onto power. He’s already proven that with the actions that ended with his impeachment, and expanded on that proof to a horrific degree when he purposely discarded a national testing plan for COVID-19 out of hopes that more people would die in Democratic states. When someone is ready to discard hundreds of thousands of people just on the chance it will bolster their odds, it’s hard to think there’s any lines that can’t be crossed in trying to keep his stubby hands on the reins.

To that end, Trump has already spent the first part of this year:

  • Tearing apart the Postal Service
  • Spreading lies about vote by mail
  • Testing the use of force to block protests
  • Fomenting violence in democratically led cities

To prepare against the day when the numbers show voters want him to leave their house.

But there’s one more step Trump is taking that’s designed to ensure he can’t lose. Like … really can’t lose. That step goes back to one of the least favorite parts of the system created by eighteenth century people unable to imagine a world in which electronic communication could tie the nation together in an instant: the Electoral College.

Like the Senate filibuster, the Electoral College is an institution that ensures a handful of people can control the fate of vast issues. Everyone recognizes that it’s undemocratic. Only those who absolutely depend on it—like Republicans who have lost the popular vote in six of the last seven elections—have anything nice to say about it. It was an overly complicated idea in 1788. It’s a ridiculous relic today.

Barton Gellman's latest article in The Atlantic is notable for the forthright discussion of how Trump is unlikely to be pried from the White House without, at the very least, a legal fight. One of the biggest reasons that the Republicans are hurrying to get a fresh Trump appointment into the Supreme Court—even if that means making the selection while Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is still lying in state at the Capitol—is precisely so that there will be a heavily Trump-friendly majority on the court when the lawsuits inevitably arrive on its doorsteps. After all, Republicans don’t want to take the chance John Roberts has a twinge of conscience. 

But in addition to laying the public groundwork by disparaging mailed-in votes and planting false stories of foreign nations seeding America with fake ballots, there’s another big step that the Trump campaign is making more quietly in the effort to prepare for a loss at the polls. After all, Trump doesn’t have to win at the polls to secure his spot in the White House—he already proved that in 2016.

However, 2016 swung on a very small number of votes in a few swing states. Right now, Trump is further behind in the polls than he ever was in that cycle, and he’s well behind in several states that he won last time around. But that may not be an issue.

The meeting of the Electoral College in December, and the count of those votes in January, immediately after Congress is seated, are supposed to be formalities. Sure, the college itself is a democracy-warping relic that gives way too much power to small numbers of people in specific states while disenfranchising tens of millions. But at least the process of executing the vote is more or less ceremonial. Except when it’s not. 

In 2000, with the vote in the Electoral College looming and many people urging him to fight on, Al Gore went before the nation to say “Tonight, for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession.” It is impossible to even imagine Trump making such a speech. If Trump refuses to concede, no matter what the outcome in the popular vote or the Electoral College, there is no real procedure in place for making him go. 

And there’s another threat: the electors themselves.

We are accustomed to choosing electors by popular vote, but nothing in the Constitution says it has to be that way. Article II provides that each state shall appoint electors “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.” Since the late 19th century, every state has ceded the decision to its voters. Even so, the Supreme Court affirmed in Bush v. Gore that a state “can take back the power to appoint electors.” How and when a state might do so has not been tested for well over a century.

Republican sources report that the Trump team is already conducting a low-level campaign to test their ability to seat electors who are “loyal” not in the sense that they vote according to the outcome of the election, but in the sense that they vote for Trump, no matter what.

Six of the most critical states—Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—have both chambers of the state legislature controlled by Republicans. What happens if the voters of Florida or Pennsylvania give Biden a solid victory, but the legislatures of those states seat electors who all promise to vote for Trump? It would go to court, of course, but how would a newly appointed Trump justice rule on a case about “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct?” The Supreme Court, the with Ruth Bader Ginsburg Court, recently ruled that states could pass laws prohibiting faithless electors. But it’s unclear if those laws would stand up to deliberate meddling by Trump-favoring legislatures. Some state officials are currently denying this effort, which means about as much as a denial from Trump.

As with every other contingency, the possibility of Trump exercising these anti-democracy measures drops with every percentage point of his defeat. Trump doesn’t just need to lose, he needs to lose so badly that everyone, top to bottom, gets the message. So badly, that everyone sees that opposing the will of the voters would not mean a protest, but a revolution. So badly that everyone will be buying new ten foot poles just to keep him at a distance.

Trump will try to cheat. If there is any possible means in which he can claim victory, even it means doing to the Constitution what Mitch McConnell has done to the Senate rules, he will go there. His rejection must be visceral and decisive, because anything else he will read as weakness.