The war between Matt Gaetz and Kevin McCarthy is far from over

The House Ethics Committee is conducting an investigation into Rep. Matt Gaetz that includes reaching out to a woman he reportedly had sex with while she was still a minor. CNN reported Thursday that this investigation is now expanding, with the committee seeking information from a former Capitol Hill staffer described both as Gaetz's “ex-girlfriend” and a “key witness.”

In CNN’s words, the investigation includes “allegations of sex crimes, drug use, and illicit benefits.” But Gaetz is reportedly adamant that the whole thing is just “payback” for his role in ousting former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy.

Despite the source, there may be some truth to Gaetz’s claims. McCarthy may no longer be in the House, but he is reportedly "out for blood" and going on a "revenge tour" to get back at Gaetz and others he feels betrayed him.

While members of the House Ethics Committee have declined to comment, an attorney for Gaetz’s ex-girlfriend informed CNN that she is a potential witness in the ongoing investigation. The woman’s relationship with Gaetz reportedly goes back to 2017, which is the same period in which Gaetz was reportedly involved in sexual contact with a 17-year-old girl. 

A federal probe into allegations that Gaetz was involved in sex trafficking ended in 2023, with no charges filed against Gaetz. That investigation was connected to a scheme involving Florida tax collector Joel Greenburg—a reported friend of Gaetz—who was sentenced to 11 years in prison for six federal charges including sex trafficking, identity theft, and wire fraud.

The House Ethics Committee resumed its investigation into Gaetz in June 2023, several months before McCarthy was ousted. According to private correspondence that The Daily Beast reviewed, Gaetz told a friend that his effort to undercut and remove McCarthy from the speaker position was payback for launching the ethics probe. Gaetz ultimately forced the vote that ousted McCarthy, and was obviously pleased with the outcome.

“We heard Speaker McCarthy say that he wanted us to ‘Bring it on!’ Gaetz told reporters after the vote ended McCarthy’s term as speaker. “So I guess we did.”

In addition to the satisfaction of seeing McCarthy sidelined, the move also seems to have generated an infusion of cash for Gaetz. According to Politico, six of the eight Republican House members who voted to oust McCarthy saw an increase in small-dollar fundraising over the next quarter. Gaetz had a quarter-over-quarter jump of $725,000 from donors giving under $200. 

In December, the angry and humiliated McCarthy resigned from the House. But even though Gaetz won the battle, McCarthy doesn’t seem to be finished with the war.

Vanity Fair describes McCarthy as “out for blood,” and Politico says he is overseeing an effort to find primary challengers for the “Gaetz Eight.”

The New Republic calls it McCarthy’s “revenge tour” and says he knows exactly who he is targeting first: Reps. Nancy Mace, Bob Good, and Eli Crane. McCarthy’s allies judge these three to be the most vulnerable. Mace may be at the front of the line because she is described as having been a member of McCarthy’s “inner circle” before she voted for his removal.

After being removed from office and resigning from the House, McCarthy may seem to be a less-than-fearsome opponent when it comes to launching a campaign of revenge. However, previous to his ouster, he was known as the Republican’s best fundraiser. According to The New Republic, McCarthy is still able to tap his donor network to power primary challenges to those against the Republicans on his hit list. There are even indications that McCarthy’s vengeance tour could continue beyond this election cycle, as he works his way through Gaetz’s supporters. 

Whether or not McCarthy is successful, the idea that the best Republican fundraiser is busy raising funds to take down Republican incumbents seems like a very good thing for Democrats, as well as another battle in the Republican’s intraparty warfare. 

Maybe McCarthy should pick up a yellow jumpsuit and a katana.

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EMILY's List has been devoted to electing pro-choice Democratic women for 40 years, a mission that's grown only more critical since the fall of Roe. Joining us on "The Downballot" this week is Christina Reynolds, one of EMILY's top officials, to tell us about how her organization recruits, supports, and advises women candidates at all levels of the ballot nationwide. Reynolds explains the unique challenges women face, from a lack of fundraising networks to judgments about their qualifications that never seem to stick to men. She tells us how Dobbs has—and hasn't—changed campaigning for EMILY's endorsees and spotlights a wide range of key races the group is involved in this year.

Fox News Politics: President Potty Mouth

Welcome to Fox News’ Politics newsletter with the latest political news from Washington D.C. and updates from the 2024 campaign trail. 

What's Happening?

- Biden admin sent money to Hamas-linked group soon after Oct. 7 attack

- Texas holding the line

- Haley and Trump trade shots

President Biden's thoughts about former President Trump appear to be more vulgar behind closed doors than in public, despite him and other Democrats routinely calling for "civility" and "decency" in politics.

During conversations with his confidantes, Biden lets his temper flare and refers to Trump as a "sick f---" among other expletives, according to reports this week.

On Biden's first day in office, he lectured his staff about the importance of respect: "I am not joking when I say this, if you are ever working with me and I hear you treat another colleague with disrespect, talk down to someone, I promise you I will fire you on the spot. On the spot. No ifs, ands or buts," he said. 

$51 MILLION: Biden admin sent millions to Hamas-linked UNRWA after Oct. 7 attacks, before halting funding …Read more

‘TOO LITTLE TOO LATE’: Ohio politicians react to Biden visiting East Palestine after 1 year …Read more

FACT-CHECK: Snopes' Biden blunder is the latest example of fact-checkers getting the facts wrong …Read more

BIDEN'S 'TEST': Young liberal activists are 'disillusioned' with Biden, 'mad' about war in Gaza …Read more

HOMELAND INSECURITY: Hesitant Republicans could sink Mayorkas impeachment effort …Read more

'HOLD THE LINE': Texans in Congress rally around Gov. Abbott amid feud with Biden administration over border …Read more

ALLEGED MISCONDUCT: House committee subpoenas Fulton County DA Fani Willis …Read more

'A WASTE OF CARBON': Top Republicans blast Biden for replacing John Kerry with John Podesta who called CCP official a 'friend' …Read more

TRADING SHOTS: Haley and Trump trade shots over who's 'the weakest general election candidate ever' …Read more

FUNDING FIGHT: Trump, Haley battle for big donors while Biden campaign sits on massive cash reserve …Read more

HALEY'S GOALPOSTS: Haley aims to finish 'a little bit closer' to Trump in South Carolina's Republican presidential primary …Read more

'BRAZEN ATTACK': Senate grills Justice Dept., DHS over illegal migrants' 'brazen' NYC cop attack: ‘Will they be deported?’ …Read more

'JUST YELLING AT ME': Bill Maher says a 'pretty famous' person lashed out at him for 'platforming' Republicans on his HBO show …Read more

'DIFFICULT MOMENT': Deadline arrives for Fani Willis to respond to 'improper' affair allegations: what we know so far …Read more

SENTENCED: Ex-CIA engineer sentenced to 40 years for leaking docs to Wikileaks, child porn possession …Read more

CONCEALED CARRY: South Carolina Senate passes open carry bill with addition of free gun training classes …Read more

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Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more on FoxNews.com.

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the House trying to impeach Mayorkas next week

House Republicans are aiming to tee up debate and a floor vote next week to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

As of this Friday, the House Rules Committee has not officially put impeachment on its schedule for Monday. But Fox is told that that could happen over the weekend if Republicans are satisfied with the whip count on impeachment. At this stage, the Rules Committee is only slated to prep a health care bill for the floor at its meeting Monday. The two impeachment articles must go to the Rules Committee before heading to the floor.

If the Rules Committee prepares the articles of impeachment on Monday, the full House could debate and vote on impeaching Mayorkas as early as Tuesday. If the Rules Committee meeting slips to Tuesday, then floor action on Mayorkas will likely shift to Wednesday. 

And even if the Rules Committee convenes on Mayorkas, the House won’t necessarily need to bring those articles of impeachment to the floor right away if the GOP brass is concerned about the vote count. 

MAYORKAS IMPEACHMENT ARTICLES APPROVED BY COMMITTEE, SETTING UP FULL HOUSE VOTE

The decision to go to the floor is about the math. 

Rep. Brian Higgins, D-N.Y., resigns Friday to run an arts organization in western New York. When the House returns on Monday, it will have 431 members — 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats. That’s a seven seat majority. And the retirement of Higgins helps the GOP make the math work in their impeachment quest. With a delta of seven seats between the majority and minority, Republicans can now lose three votes on their side and pass something without assistance from Democrats. The margin was two votes prior to Higgins stepping down. 

But it’s more complicated than that. 

It is doubtful that House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., will be back next week after receiving cancer treatments. Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., should return after being injured in a car accident. But there are always a handful of members out on any given day for health and other reasons. So if Republicans go to the floor to impeach Mayorkas, they need to make sure everyone who is a yea on impeachment is present. Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., is a no right now. Johnson told Fox Business Friday morning that he would work on Buck this weekend. 

So, if things go the way the GOP leadership wants, the House could vote on Tuesday or Wednesday to impeach Mayorkas. If the leadership doesn’t put impeachment on the floor, the math won’t work. 

Keep in mind that the Republican hand could either get better or worse if for some reason the House doesn’t vote next week on impeachment. 

There is a special election in New York on February 13 to replace former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., who was expelled. Former Rep. Tom Suozzi, R-N.Y., is running against GOP nominee Mazi Melesa Pilip. If Suozzi wins, the GOP majority shrinks again. But a Pilip victory serves as a Republican reinforcement. 

HESITANT REPUBLICANS COULD DERAIL MAYORKAS IMPEACHMENT EFFORT

If and when the House votes, it considers two articles of impeachment. One accuses Mayorkas of disregarding the law. The other charges Mayorkas of lying to Congress, saying the border was secure. 

The House will likely vote on each article separately. Mayorkas would be impeached if the House adopts either article. Moreover, the House does not always approve both articles of impeachment in such an inquest. In 1997, the House only adopted two of the four articles of impeachment leveled against former President Clinton. 

Think of impeachment as an indictment. It’s then up to the Senate to act as a "court" and judge whether the accused is guilty of the charges in a trial. 

The impeachment of cabinet officials is rare. The House has now impeached multiple Presidents and federal judges. But only one cabinet member, Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876. 

If the House approves impeachment articles, it must next take a separate vote to appoint "impeachment managers." It then dispatches the article or articles of impeachment to the Senate. 

"Impeachment managers" are House members who serve as prosecutors. They present the findings of the House before the Senate. Senators sit as jurors. 

Fox is told that the House wants to get the impeachment articles to the Senate quickly after the vote. The Senate is trying to consider a major border security bill next week. So there could be a bit of a parliamentary traffic jam as the Senate potentially grapples with both the border bill and maybe the start a Senate trial. But it’s also possible a trial could wait until the week of Feb. 11. 

T,his scenario produces a rather shocking split screen. The Senate is dealing with a border security bill as it entertains an impeachment trial against the Homeland Security Secretary. 

OHIO SENATE CANDIDATE SAYS GOP IMPEACHING ‘TRAITOR’ MAYORKAS A ‘NO BRAINER’: ‘GROTESQUELY UNQUALIFIED’

There is a bit of a ceremony to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate from the House and for the Senate to receive the articles. In this case, Acting Clerk of the House Kevin McCumber and House Sergeant at Arms William McFarland escort the articles of impeachment and House managers across the Capitol Dome to the Senate. The Senate gathers, usually with all senators sitting at their desks. Senate Sergeant at Arms Karen Gibson then receives the House entourage at the Senate door and reads the following proclamation to the Senate. 

"All persons are commanded to keep silence, on pain of imprisonment, while the House of Representatives is exhibiting to the Senate of the United States articles of impeachment against Alejandro Nicholas Mayorkas." 

The articles are then presented to the Senate and the managers are introduced. That is all which usually happens on the first day of a Senate trial – although Fox was told the Senate might try to squeeze everything 

Under Senate impeachment trial rule III, the body is supposed to wait until the next day to swear-in senators as jurors. But Fox is told that could happen on day one in this instance. 

According to Senate rules, the "trial" must begin the day after the Senate receives the articles at 1 p.m. Trials are supposed to run Monday through Saturday. There were Saturday sessions in both impeachment trials of former President Trump in 2020 and 2021. 

It is unlikely that U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts will preside over a possible Mayorkas trial. Senate impeachment rule IV requires the Chief Justice to preside over cases involving the President or Vice President. In this case, it’s likely that Senate President Pro Tempore Patty Murray, D-Wash., will preside over a Mayorkas tribunal.

Now we get to perhaps the most interesting question of all: How much of a trial is there? 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., ducked questions from yours truly last fall about what a potential impeachment trial for President Biden or Mayorkas would look like. 

Schumer again sidestepped a question this week when asked if he would "hold" a trial. "Let’s wait and see what the House does," replied Schumer. 

But regardless, the Senate cannot immediately bypass a trial. If the House impeaches, the Senate is compelled to at least receive the impeachment articles, the House managers and swear-in the senators. 

At that point, the Senate can decide to hold a full trial, or potentially, move to dismiss or actually have straight, up or down votes on convicting or exonerating Mayorkas. 

In the 1998 impeachment trial of former President Clinton, late Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., made a motion to dismiss the charges. 

In 2010, the Senate was on the verge of launching an impeachment trial of former federal judge Samuel Kent, but he resigned after the House impeached him and before the Senate began the trial. The House notified the Senate it did not want to continue with the trial. So the Senate eventually conducted a vote to discharge itself of responsibilities regarding Kent. 

The Senate could so something similar this time. 

But here’s the rub: There will eventually be either a vote to convict or exonerate Mayorkas or dismiss the charges. Senate Republicans will watch very closely if Senate Democrats engineer any vote to short-circuit the trial. The GOP will take note of how multiple vulnerable Democrats facing competitive re-election bids in battleground districts vote.

If they vote to end the trial or clear Mayorkas, Republicans will likely enroll that into their campaigns against those Democratic senators. Keep in mind that Fox polling data revealed that border security was the number-one issue facing voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Republicans will examine the trial-related votes of Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Jon Tester, D-Mont., Bob Casey, D-Pa., Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., and Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz. – if she runs.

But first, we have to see if the House has the votes to impeach. Everything hinges on that.

Graham grills DOJ, DHS over illegal migrants’ ‘brazen’ NYC police attack: ‘will they be deported?’

FIRST ON FOX: Senate Judiciary ranking member Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is demanding answers from the Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security on the agencies’ actions on the illegal migrants, who attacked New York City police officers, freed without bail. 

"I was saddened but not surprised to hear about the latest consequences of President Biden's illegal immigration crisis - a violent beat-down near Times Square in New York of several NYPD officers by a dozen migrants," Graham wrote in a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, asking what their respective agencies will do in response to the "brazen attack." 

"Will the aliens who perpetrated this attack be deported?" Graham asked. "If so, when? If not, why not?"

ILLEGAL MIGRANT FLIPS MIDDLE FINGERS AFTER BEING CHARGED WITH ATTACKING NYPD IN TIMES SQUARE

The Justice Department and DHS did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's requests for comment on the letter. Makorkas faces a possible impeachment vote in the House after the House Homeland Security Committee cleared a resolution for his impeachment this week. 

Over the weekend, a pair of New York City police officers were attacked by at least seven illegal migrants near Times Square. The suspects were later released without bail following their arrest. 

Surveillance footage released by the New York Police Department shows an NYPD officer and lieutenant telling the group to move along about 8:30 p.m. Saturday on West 42nd Street in Manhattan, the New York Post reported. A scuffle ensues as the officers are seen apparently trying to subdue someone on the ground. 

NYC MIGRANTS ARRESTED FOR ASSAULTING POLICE FLEE TO CALIFORNIA UPON RELEASE: REPORT

The suspects are then seen kicking the officers before running off before being arrested a short time later. The NYPD identified the suspects to Fox News Digital as Darwin Andres Gomez Izquiel, 19, Kelvin Servat Arocha, 19, Wilson Juarez, 21, Jhoan Boada, 22, and Yorman Reveron, 24.

They were all charged with assault and released without bail, sources said. The Manhattan District Attorney's Office told Fox News Digital that an investigation into the incident is ongoing. 

SUSPECTED ILLEGAL MIGRANTS LAND BOAT ON SAN DIEGO BEACH AND FLEE INTO WEALTHY VILLAGE

Leaving police custody on Thursday, Boada gave the news cameras a double-handed middle finger as he walked past and smirked at reporters and photographers outside the Midtown South Precinct in Manhattan. He was wearing a black Los Angeles Lakers shirt and khakis leaving the precinct station. He has a tattoo on his left forearm.

Fox News Digital’s Louis Casiano contributed to this report.  

Hesitant Republicans could derail Mayorkas impeachment effort

House GOP leaders are closely watching a few Republican lawmakers ahead of their expected vote on whether to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas next week.

With just a razor-thin majority and all Democrats likely to oppose the measure, Republicans will have to be in near lock-step to pass what would be a historic vote. A Cabinet official has not been impeached since 1876.

Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., told reporters on Thursday morning that he is a "solid" no on impeaching Mayorkas

He criticized the Biden official for his handling of the southern border crisis, but said, "The people that I’m talking to on the outside, the constitutional experts, former members agree that this just isn’t an impeachable offense." 

MAYORKAS SLAMS ‘BASELESS’ GOP ALLEGATIONS AHEAD OF KEY IMPEACHMENT VOTE 

At least four other Republicans are still undecided, at least publicly. 

The office of Rep. David Joyce, R-Ohio, leader of the moderate Republican Governance Group, told Fox News Digital on Friday that he "has met with Chairman Green and is reviewing the material that they have provided."

House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., has not told reporters how he would vote. Reps. Dan Newhouse, R-Wash., and Tom McClintock, R-Calif., also declined to say which way they were leaning earlier this week.

Fox News Digital reached out to McHenry, Newhouse and McClintock's offices for an update but did not immediately hear back.

MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE PREDICTS MAYORKAS IMPEACHMENT ARTICLES WILL PASS HOUSE WITHOUT ANY DEM SUPPORT

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has been dealing with one of the thinnest House majorities in history over the last several weeks. With absences on the GOP side and the departures of three former lawmakers, Johnson has been walking a tightrope of just a two-seat majority.

However, he got some breathing room recently with longtime Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins, D-N.Y., resigning, effective Friday. 

Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., who was receiving treatment linked to his cancer diagnosis, and Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., who has been recovering from a car accident, are expected back in the House soon as well.

It would be a massive blow to the House GOP's emphasis on the border crisis if the Mayorkas impeachment were to fail in the House.

KEY REPUBLICAN COMES OUT IN FAVOR OF IMPEACHING MAYORKAS, SAYS HE SHOULD BE 'TRIED FOR TREASON'

House Republicans are pushing to impeach Mayorkas over accusations of willfully disregarding the law to allow the migrant crisis to foment.

The effort has received support from the vast majority of House Republicans. Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., a key moderate who was also on the fence about impeaching the Cabinet secretary, told reporters earlier this week that he'd back it as well.

"I intend to," Bacon said when asked about it on Tuesday. "Because we have a disaster at the border. And I would say there's so many laws on the books that he could enact or enforce, and he does not."

GOP congressman admits Mayorkas impeachment is bogus

House Republicans caught some friendly fire on Thursday, when Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado went on MSNBC to say that GOP members pushing for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’ impeachment would not get his support. Calling the process “wrong,” Buck told MSNBC’s Chris Jansing, “This is not a high crime or misdemeanor. It’s not an impeachable offense. This is a policy difference.”

The Colorado Republican went so far as to admonish his party, saying, “If we go down this path of impeachment with a Cabinet official, we are opening a door, as Republicans, that we don’t want to open.” When asked if he might change his mind, Buck said that unless new evidence materialized, it was unlikely since he has done his “due diligence” and doesn’t see any impeachable actions on the part of the secretary.

Republicans have repeatedly admitted that their attacks on Mayorkas are purely political. The idea that there might be legal reasons for impeachment seems to have escaped them entirely. For their part, House Democrats have been using these circus impeachment proceedings to point out how deleterious this political theater is to our country while also reminding voters about the absurd “solutions” that  Donald Trump and his MAGA lawmakers have for our country’s problems—the same problems Republicans are choosing not to address with policy, in favor of this this stunt impeachment.

Buck, who is retiring and leaving his seat to the wolves, now seems free to point out some of the more egregious actions of his fellow Republicans. He joins the GOP officials who have fallen out of favor with their political party—for not setting the world on fire—and who have become prone to pointing out how crappy their new members are

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It is primary season, and Donald Trump seems pretty low energy these days. Kerry and Markos talk about the chances of Trump stumbling through the election season and the need to press our advantage and make gains in the House and Senate. Meanwhile, the right-wing media world is losing its collective minds about Taylor Swift registering younger Americans to vote!

Manchin dismisses Mayorkas impeachment

An impeachment trial for DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in the Senate? Not happening, says Joe Manchin.

The moderate West Virginia senator, no fan of President Joe Biden's handling of the border, dismissed the House's plans to impeach Mayorkas in a Thursday interview. The House is slated to vote on impeachment next week, but that could be the end of the story in Congress.

"It's crap. Pure crap. No trial at all, it's ridiculous. The trial will be in November. No. You start that craziness and play games and that stuff?" Manchin said. Cabinet officials "work for the president. You got a problem, go to the polls."

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer declined to say how the Senate might handle Mayorkas' impeachment this week, but there appears to be no appetite to hold a trial, particularly among Senate Democrats.

The Senate can dismiss a trial with a simple majority of votes — and some Republicans don't want to have one either.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who is up for reelection, said he'll look at it but "it's hard for me to see what ground they are going to impeach him on."

"Are they going to impeach him because people are coming across the border? Then pass the goddamn" border bill, Tester said.

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Republicans test border security as campaign strategy in bellwether special election

NEW YORK — House Republicans are banking on border security being key to keeping their majority. The special election in a district straddling Long Island and migrant-overwhelmed New York City provides their first test case.

Outside a sprawling migrant shelter last week, Ethiopian-born Mazi Pilip introduced herself to reporters as a legal immigrant before identifying herself as a GOP congressional candidate. She then linked Democrat Tom Suozzi — her opponent in the race to replace George Santos — to what she described as President Joe Biden’s failed border policies.

Facing cameras in the same spot moments later, Suozzi delivered a rebuttal, arguing Republicans are politicizing the issue instead of solving it.

The competing news conferences outside the Creedmoor Psychiatric Center migrant tent complex in Queens laid bare how central the border fight is in this local race. And they underscored how illegal immigration and national security are affecting voters in a presidential election year as Republicans hammer Biden over the border.

The Long Island race on Feb. 13 should be Democrats’ to lose.

They’re running a familiar candidate, vastly outspending the GOP and are not the party of Santos — the first Republican ever expelled from Congress. Suozzi, a former House member with centrist views, would appear to be a heavyweight against Pilip, a political novice who makes herself scarce on the trail and keeps some views close to the vest.

But between the surge of migrants to New York City — more than 170,000 since April 2022 — and the infrastructure of the hyper-organized Nassau County Republican Committee, Democrats find themselves on the defensive.

“This is our seat to win,” Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, a Nassau County Republican, said in an interview. “This is going to be the message that is sent across this country and to Minority Leader [Hakeem] Jeffries that perhaps they should be investing their money somewhere else in the general.”

The face-off between Pilip and Suozzi marks the first House race of the year. And it has provided some early insights into how each party is campaigning.

So far, Democrats are showing caution as Republicans are projecting confidence — especially around border politics.

“I will work to stop Joe Biden and Tom Suozzi’s sanctuary city policies and secure our border and invest in our brave ICE agents,” Pilip pledged outside Creedmoor.

Her campaign’s first three TV ads have featured juxtaposed images of Suozzi, Biden and masses of migrants on the move at the Southern border. An ad push by the House GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund also capitalizes on migrant crisis backlash.

There’s good reason for that: An Emerson College/PIX11 poll found 26 percent of voters in the district listed immigration as their top concern. The same poll, the only public survey released thus far, showed Pilip within three points of Suozzi, who represented the district for six years.

Republicans have an easier task.

They must persuade voters concerned enough to head to the polls in a typically low-turnout special election that they have a better handle over the migrant crisis. And in Washington, House Republicans have advanced impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Some reject the notion that they should negotiate with the Democrats on a border deal, saying instead that Biden should enforce laws already on the books.

Democrats, by contrast, are on the defensive.

They must juggle acknowledging the gravity of the situation while calling out the GOP on leveraging it for political gain — and do both without undermining the president.

Tom Suozzi has argued that Republicans are politicizing immigration instead of solving it.

“I agree, it’s a big, big problem,” Suozzi said at a recent news conference, referring to the migrant crisis. “Why would you not do everything in your power to try and get a bipartisan deal done to fix this problem?”

Democrats and allied PACs in ads and mailers have portrayed Pilip as beholden to “MAGA Republicans,” tied her to extremist policies like a proposed nationwide ban on abortion and accused her of hiding from hard questions. (She has called herself “pro-life,” but has said she would not support a federal ban on abortion.) Suozzi’s campaign has run mostly biographical ads about his work across the aisle and touted his support for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The party that wins can claim momentum ahead of November, when six competitive New York House races will help determine which party wields the speakership come 2025. And the special election results will shape messaging nationwide in a presidential contest focused on inflation, the Israel-Hamas war, abortion access and illegal immigration.

“Fear-mongering is an effective tool for campaigning,” Rep. Grace Meng, a Queens Democrat, said in an interview. “But our responsibility as legislators is to provide solutions, and at the very least, to show up and talk to our voters, which is not happening.”

The comment was a dig at Pilip’s limited time in the public eye.

The first news conference of her campaign occurred six weeks after she was nominated.

Three days later, the Nassau GOP hosted a rally with eight House Republicans, including Majority Whip Tom Emmer, but excluded the candidate they were on hand to honor. Organizers had scheduled an event at a time when Pilp, an Orthodox Jew, was observing the Sabbath.

Additionally, Pilip has agreed to just one debate against Suozzi.

What’s nonetheless clear is that Republicans are framing Suozzi and Biden as a threat to their way of life.

“This ain’t about Nassau County, about the North Shore. It’s about the United States of America,” Nassau GOP chairman Joe Cairo said. “We have to stop the nonsense.”

Suozzi may be uniquely positioned to take it all on. Rather than a full-throated defense of Biden, the former representative has shown a readiness to call out obstinance in either party.

“And the Democrats who say, ‘My way or the highway,’ they’re wrong, too,” he said. “The key to solving problems, complicated problems, is compromise.”

Republicans, including Suozzi’s former congressional colleague Pete King, say it may not be enough in a region that has turned red over the years, thanks to the Nassau Republican apparatus.

Democrats say it will have to be.

“This race sets the tone for Long Island, it sets the tone for New York State, it sets the tone for the battle for the House,” said Zak Malamed, a former House candidate who endorsed Suozzi. “Some are describing this race as the Alamo for Nassau County Democrats.”

Posted in Uncategorized