McCarthy’s next step on the GOP tightrope: Navigating concessions to conservatives

Posted on November 16, 2022 (Updated November 16, 2022) by By Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney

Now that Kevin McCarthy has won the House GOP's speakership nomination, his real work begins.

McCarthy's victory over internal critics on Tuesday marked the starting gun for a seven-week marathon. With his majority looking much thinner than many in both parties expected, he will need to persuade almost all of the 36 members who opposed him on Tuesday's secret ballot to back him for the gavel in the public floor vote on Jan. 3.

While most of the conference's anti-McCarthy votes went to Freedom Caucus challenger Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), five House Republicans wrote in a different name for speaker and one abstained for a total of 37 in opposition — drawing a map for the Californian's rocky path ahead to 218 votes.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) remarked on the effect of the chamber's narrow margins with a quip a Democrat might appreciate: "Everybody’s a Joe Manchin." Fitzpatrick helped nominate McCarthy on Tuesday, however, and stressed that the current minority leader “has earned the right” to be speaker.

The House GOP on Wednesday moves on to proposed conference rules, with debate set to continue after Thanksgiving. And McCarthy now has less room to maneuver than he might have anticipated. As he edges toward offering institutional concessions to the Freedom Caucus, the Trump-aligned group that helped block his ascent to the speakership in 2015, emboldened moderates are growing uncomfortable with what they perceive as back-door deals with the party’s hardliners.

More than 50 members of the Republican Main Street Partnership met on Wednesday morning to discuss their legislative priorities and how they plan to flex their muscle as the second-largest GOP group on Capitol Hill, a Republican familiar with the sitdown told POLITICO.

Meanwhile, some GOP lawmakers who backed McCarthy on Tuesday might end up siding with Freedom Caucus members on the rules concessions they're seeking. Among those requests: tools to undermine the GOP leader, including a restoration of the speaker-deposing move known as a "motion to vacate the chair"; and diluting the influence of McCarthy and his allies in doling out committee assignments. (The more influence McCarthy loses there, the fewer carrots he has to offer to his skeptics.)

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a onetime McCarthy opponent turned key ally, threw his support behind conservatives' proposed rules changes, calling them “good, common-sense things.”

On top of that, some Republicans walked into Wednesday's debate with a hangover from Tuesday. Four lawmakers, speaking on condition of anonymity, aired frustration after the leadership elections about what they described as a chaotic and poorly explained process of tallying votes.

Those private complaints about GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik's (N.Y.) management of the voting were exacerbated by the fact that inside the room, she read out votes for McCarthy and Biggs but did not mention that six members chose neither candidate. According to conference staff, however, internal rules state that only formally nominated leadership candidates — in this case, McCarthy and Biggs — have their tallies publicly announced.

Separately adding to the disarray, at least one GOP lawmaker mixed up planned votes for the first and second ballots in the highly competitive whip race, according to a senior Republican who was in the room. The lawmaker in question intended to choose Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) for the first ballot, but instead put Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.).

That one vote, had it been cast as intended, could have led to a different outcome in the whip battle — since Ferguson ended the first ballot one vote behind Emmer, eliminating him from the contest before the current National Republican Congressional Committee chair prevailed on the second ballot against Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.).

Now Republicans hope to move beyond the drama — though it's more likely they just start the second act — as McCarthy starts to try to lock down votes.

He can’t lose more than a handful of members. Though the House hasn’t formally been called yet, Republicans are expected to have a single-digit majority. And McCarthy has already lost two: Shortly before Wednesday’s conference meeting, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) appeared to put himself firmly in the “no” column.

“[McCarthy] wants to maintain the status quo, which consolidates power into his hands and a small group of individuals he personally selects. We need a leader who can stand up to a Democrat-controlled Senate and President Biden, and unfortunately, that isn’t Kevin McCarthy,” Rosendale said.

He joins Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who is pushing Jordan as a potential speaker contender and cast doubt on McCarthy’s chances of ultimately claiming the gavel: “Kevin McCarthy couldn’t get 218 votes, he couldn’t get 200 votes. He couldn’t get 190 votes.”

Other McCarthy opponents also appeared unbowed, calling for challengers to the California Republican to step forward.

Biggs signaled that he won’t challenge McCarthy again — wondering “how many times can you have a target on your back” — but said that House Republicans “still have a lot of things to discuss internally," including the speakership.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), who opposed McCarthy, said the current leader's failure to reach 218 internal votes “opens up the opportunity for anyone interested to let us know what their vision is to fight for the things that matter most to the American people.”

McCarthy's allies squashed or punted several conservative amendments on Wednesday afternoon, with largely non-controversial proposals — like backing the full reopening of the Capitol grounds — getting through on voice vote.

"I don't think those of us who were seeking to change how Congress operates, felt like the leadership was supportive of that. ... It was clear that the conference leadership had lined up opposition," Good said after the meeting.

And in a blow to members of the Freedom Caucus who wanted to make it easier to depose a speaker, House Republicans instead agreed to language requiring that a motion to vacate the chair have the support of a majority of the conference.

"There was an initiative for the last month or two saying we want to make it easier to vacate the chair and that just puts us on a house of cards," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).

Bacon added that where the conference ended up "gives us stability, predictability, and that's a good thing."

Nancy Vu contributed to this report.

Trump impeachment manager Cicilline rallies Democrats to ban former president from public office

Posted on November 16, 2022 by Chris Pandolfo

Rep. David Cicilline of Rhode Island has put forward legislation that would bar former President Donald Trump from holding public office.

House Democrat eyes legislation to bar Trump from office under 14th Amendment

Posted on November 16, 2022 (Updated November 17, 2022) by Mychael Schnell

Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) is eyeing legislation that would bar former President Trump from serving in office under the 14th Amendment “for leading an insurrection against the United States.”

Cicilline, who served as an impeachment manager during Trump’s first impeachment, sent a letter to his Democratic colleagues Tuesday night previewing a bill to prevent Trump from holding office and soliciting co-sponsors for the measure.

It is unclear when the congressman plans to introduce the bill. The listed deadline for lawmakers to co-sponsor the measure is Thursday at noon.

The Rhode Island Democrat circulated the letter the same night Trump announced his 2024 campaign for president.

“Given the proof – demonstrated through the January 6th Committee Hearings, the 2021 impeachment trial, and other reporting – that Donald Trump engaged in insurrection on January 6th with the intention of overturning the lawful 2020 election results, I have drafted legislation that would prevent Donald Trump from holding public office again under the Fourteenth Amendment,” Cicilline wrote.

Trump was impeached for a second time in January 2021 on the charge of “incitement of insurrection” following the Capitol riot, but the Senate ultimately acquitted him. The House impeached him for a first time in December 2019 for “abuse of power” and “obstruction of Congress” over revelations regarding his dealings with Ukraine, though the Senate acquitted him of both charges.

Cicilline argued that Trump should be barred from holding office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, known as the “Disqualification Clause,” which says individuals should not be allowed “to hold any office” if they “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

The congressman said his bill “details testimony and evidence demonstrating how Donald Trump engaged in insurrection against the United States,” pointing to revelations from Jan. 6 select committee hearings.

“It specifically details how Donald Trump engaged in insurrection when he helped to plan and encouraged the insurgence on January 6th despite knowing that the election results were lawful; attempted to intimidate state and federal officials when they did not support his false claims and unlawful plans; tried to manipulate Mike Pence into unlawfully refusing to certify the election results, despite Mr. Pence’s and legal advisors’ assertion that he held no such authority; and supported the violent insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, refusing for hours to denounce or act against the mob and putting thousands of lives in danger,” the letter reads.

If he introduces the bill, Cicilline will have to lay out the process for how the measure would use Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the text is vague.

“It is unclear whether Section 3 is self-executing, which, if it is not, would leave federal and state courts or election authorities without power to determine the eligibility of candidates unless Congress enacts legislation to permit it. Courts have produced mixed results on this question,” the CRS report reads.

“Section 3 does not expressly provide a procedure for its implementation other than Section 5’s general authority of Congress ‘to enforce [the Fourteenth Amendment’ by appropriate legislation,’” it adds.

Trump announced his intention for a third presidential bid Tuesday night at his Mar-a-Lago resort, telling the audience at the event "we always have known that this was not the end. It was only the beginning of our fight to rescue the American dream."

"In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States," he added.

Justin Amash offers to serve as ‘nonpartisan’ Speaker

Posted on November 16, 2022 (Updated November 16, 2022) by Emily Brooks

Former Rep. Justin Amash (Mich.) has offered to serve as a “nonpartisan” Speaker of the House if Republicans and Democrats cannot agree on a candidate from either party to fill the post.

The offer from Amash, a former Republican-turned-Libertarian lawmaker, comes as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) faces opposition from some members of his party, complicating his Speakership bid.

“If neither party has the votes to elect a speaker of the House, I’d be happy to serve as a nonpartisan speaker who ensures the institution works as it’s supposed to—a place where all ideas are welcome and where outcomes are discovered through the process, not dictated from above,” Amash said in a tweet on Tuesday.

Amash was elected as a Republican in the 2010 Tea Party wave, and built a reputation of being staunchly critical of the top-down nature of congressional power. He was the first Republican to call for then-President Trump’s impeachment in 2019 and later that year left the GOP to become an independent.

In 2020, Amash registered as a Libertarian, becoming the party’s first member of Congress. He considered running for president as a third-party candidate but decided against it, and left the House at the end of his term.

The Speaker is not required to be an elected member of Congress, but every one so far has been.

House Republicans chose McCarthy as their nominee for Speaker in closed-door, secret-ballot elections on Tuesday. But he faced a last-minute protest challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, who has knocked McCarthy’s plans for House rules management and his reluctance to pursue impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

McCarthy easily won the House GOP Speaker nomination over Biggs, 188 to 31. But he will have to win a majority of votes on the House floor — 218 votes, assuming a fully sworn-in House — in order to win the gavel.

With an expected slim majority for House Republicans, McCarthy will have just a few votes to spare for Republican defections on the House floor — far fewer than 31. McCarthy and his allies project confidence that he will win the floor vote, but it is unclear how many Republicans are set on voting against him.

Not every member of the Freedom Caucus agrees with challenging McCarthy, though. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has thrown her support behind McCarthy, arguing that division among Republicans could lead some moderate defectors to join with Democrats and elect a less conservative Speaker as a compromise.

Election projections as of Wednesday morning put Republicans just one seat away from securing the House majority, with nine seats undecided. Republicans are confident they will win control of the chamber.

There is historical precedent for a fair amount of uncertainty in Speakership elections — it took two months and 133 ballots to elect Speaker Nathaniel P. Banks in 1856, according to the House historian — and the GOP's majority come January is expected to be its narrowest in decades.

A major factor at play for the McCarthy antagonists are proposed House and GOP Conference rules changes. The House Freedom Caucus has proposed rules changes that, on the whole, would chip away at leadership’s power and give more to individual members. That aligns with the argument from Amash, who was a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, but left the group around the time he left the GOP.

The House GOP will start consideration of internal conference rules changes on Wednesday afternoon. In an olive branch to the Freedom Caucus concerns, McCarthy on Tuesday said that the House GOP would consider just half of the rules change requests on Wednesday and the other half after Thanksgiving.

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A very satisfying win in the Arizona gubernatorial race

Posted on November 16, 2022 by Greg Dworkin

John A Tures/Missouri Independent:

How the GOP’s expected red wave crashed on the rocks of the insurrection

As of the writing of this column, the Democratic Party is likely to lose a fraction of the House seats they were projected (even after gerrymandering), will keep the Senate and is poised to gain in governor mansions.

While some conservatives are crowing about any GOP electoral success, others in the party are becoming aware of the precarious position they are now in. And what’s likely to have contributed to converting the red wave into little more than a ripple was Jan. 6.

The last time Arizona had a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators was 1950.
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) November 15, 2022

Richard L Hasan/Slate:

I’ve Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now

In all of the swing states, the election denialist candidates lost for governor or secretary of state. In Michigan, Democrats took back control of the state legislature, making state legislative action impossible to try to steal a 2024 election victory for Trump in the state if he loses the vote. Democrats may take control of the state House in Pennsylvania, blocking an avenue there, too.*

Mike Pence is finally, belatedly, speaking out about how Trump endangered him and his family by egging on the rioters who were trying to get him to unilaterally reject Electoral College votes for Biden and throw the election to Trump. And now the lame-duck session of Congress is poised on a remarkably bipartisan basis in the Senate to pass a set of reforms to the arcane 1887 Electoral Count Act that Trump tried to exploit to turn his election loss into victory.

How did we make such progress? The same election deniers that pleased Trump and the Republican base repelled enough sane Republicans who oppose stolen elections to hold back their votes. The New York Times reported Monday that Trump had told U.S. Senate candidate David McCormick, running in the Pennsylvania Republican primary, that “If you don’t deny it, you won’t win.” McCormick didn’t deny it, failed to get Trump’s support, and lost the primary to Trump-supported Mehmet Oz by fewer than 1,000 votes. Oz went on to win the Republican primary but lose the general election to Democrat John Fetterman.

Last Tuesday, PA LG John Fetterman became the first Democratic Senator elected from Western Pennsylvania since 1940. He carried Allegheny, his home county, by 28.4% and won 110/120 municipalities. His biggest win was in Braddock - D +88.3% and biggest loss was in Fawn - R +27.33% pic.twitter.com/4qZcCfzN1L
— Ben Forstate (@4st8) November 15, 2022

Ben Jacobs/Vox:

Kevin McCarthy is so close to being speaker — and yet, so far

Kevin McCarthy’s bid for speaker of the House, briefly explained.

Tuesday’s initial vote will allow both McCarthy and his critics to put their cards on the table — and allow for nearly two months of wheeling and dealing.

The narrow Republican majority gives McCarthy’s critics a lot of leverage; he needs their votes to become speaker and it gives them the power to make demands of him.

Most of those opposed to McCarthy are in the Freedom Caucus, which will have roughly three dozen members in the next Congress. Their demands largely involve a variety of changes to House procedure that would weaken the speaker and empower rank-and-file members.

Going back to John Boehner’s tenure, rank-and-file right-wingers have griped that establishment Republicans in leadership have ignored them to reach bipartisan deals that have been insufficiently conservative. The dissidents in the Freedom Caucus want to change the rules to prevent this from happening in the future.

The most freighted proposal offered by conservatives is changing the House rules on who can offer a motion to vacate the chair — essentially, who can trigger a vote to remove the speaker and hold elections for a new one.

This is some really good news for Dems. https://t.co/77q3YLCCjv
— Matthew Dowd (@matthewjdowd) November 14, 2022

Bill Scher/Washington Monthly:

Democrats Meddled in Republican Primaries. Good.

The New York Times, plenty of pundits, and even some Democrats clutched their pearls and condemned the practice as unseemly. It wasn’t—and it worked.

In Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, Democrat Hillary Scholten lost in 2020 to Republican Peter Meijer, who broke party ranks and voted to impeach Donald Trump. Merciless Democrats boosted Meijer’s GOP primary opponent, the election denier John Gibbs. With Meijer out of the way this year, Scholten ran again and beat Gibbs by 13 points last week.

Okay, so it worked out this time. But wasn’t it morally wrong? Didn’t it undermine the Democrats’ credibility as defenders of democracy if they were willing to risk election deniers being nominated and elected?

It wasn’t, and it shouldn’t.

…

Democrats, led by dramatic speeches from Biden and Barack Obama in the campaign’s closing days, made the case that “democracy is on the ballot.” Why? Because there were many Republicans on the ballot who were openly not committed to democracy. Some election deniers tried to scrub their past, such as Blake Masters, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from Arizona. During the Republican primary, Masters said in an ad, “I think Trump won in 2020.” In the general election, he tried to pivot with “Joe Biden is absolutely the president. I mean, my gosh, have you seen the gas prices lately?” This pirouette was a flop. Masters was too extreme for such gymnastics to work.

So was it abortion, Trump or Jan 6 that hurt Republicans? The answer is yes.

“We wonder now if we were in an echo chamber,” says Wendy Rogers. https://t.co/KiXiArrCjI
— David Weigel (@daveweigel) November 15, 2022

Sahil Kapur/NBC:

Did Trump hurt Republicans in the 2022 elections? The numbers point to yes

Analysis: Trump loomed large in the minds of voters and dragged down his party’s candidates — nationally and in states with key Senate races, according to exit polls.

Trump loomed large in the minds of voters and dragged down his party’s candidates — nationally and in key swing states with Senate races — despite being out of power. In many cases that blunted the impact of Biden’s unpopularity, and widespread economic pain, helping Democrats defy political gravity and hold their own.

Nationally, 32% of voters in 2022 said their vote was “to oppose Joe Biden.” But 28% said their vote was “to oppose Donald Trump,” even though Trump was out of office. That suggests Trump’s continued dominance over the GOP made the 2022 election, in the minds of voters, almost as much about a defeated former president as it was about the current president and party in power.

“It was a Trump problem,” a Republican operative involved in the 2022 election told NBC News, speaking candidly about the de facto leader of the GOP on condition of anonymity to avoid retribution. “Independents didn’t vote for candidates they viewed as extreme and too closely linked with Donald J. Trump.”

Greg Sargent/WaPo:

The quiet vindication of Liz Cheney

But on a deeper level, Cheney’s basic theory about this moment in U.S. and GOP politics, to some degree at least, might be proving correct.

The underlying premise of Cheney’s past year holds that there exists a meaningful sliver of swing voters — including GOP-leaning independents and Republicans alienated by Trump — who could be influenced by a focus on election denialism and MAGA extremism.

In this theory, keeping up a months-long drumbeat of revelations about Trump’s effort to overturn U.S. democracy, while steadily arguing that GOP candidates who play footsie with election denialism are fundamentally unfit for public office, wouldn’t just be civically healthy. It might also have real electoral consequences, even if only on the margins.

It was only then that it dawned on @azgop: maybe taking an opportunistic raccoon who thinks the moon landing was faked and wrapping it in three feet of gauze wasn’t the right choice for this election pic.twitter.com/w2Stv5X4rF
— Popehat (@Popehat) November 15, 2022

Benjamin Wallace-Wells/New Yorker:

The Republicans’ Post-Midterm Reckoning with Donald Trump

Will the era of Stop the Steal—and the G.O.P.’s overt challenges to democracy—finally start to recede?

The specific gripe that these Republicans have with Trump is not of a moral or a legal nature. The problem, in their eyes, is that Trump effectively handpicked the candidates who underperformed in some of the country’s most crucial races. Many of these duds had won Trump’s favor for only one reason: fealty to a lie. As Chris Christie put it, “The only animating factor [for Trump] in determining an endorsement is ‘Do you believe the 2020 election was stolen or don’t you?’ ” This loyalty test led Trump to back a huckster doctor (Mehmet Oz, in Pennsylvania); a foggy ex-football star who supported a nationwide ban on abortion yet allegedly pushed former paramours to have the procedure (Herschel Walker, in Georgia); and a young venture capitalist who proved susceptible to dorm-room musings about the wisdom of the Unabomber (Blake Masters, in Arizona). On the morning after the election, Trump reportedly lashed out at people in his circle who he says advised him to back the likes of Oz—including his wife, Melania. What a guy.

.@VaughnHillyard: "Could I say something about Kari Lake, you guys?" pic.twitter.com/UvhwEtOkPD
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 15, 2022

Oh, and that announcement?

“Bored, people tried to leave before Trump was even finished speaking. Others simply turned their back to him and talked through his remarks. Keep in mind, these attendees were ostensibly among his most dedicated and connected aides and supporters.” https://t.co/vOGWEvUjUm
— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) November 16, 2022

Check the coverage:

PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Donald Trump launches 3rd bid for presidency amid legal probes, blame for GOP’s underwhelming midterm results.
— Michael Tackett (@tackettdc) November 16, 2022

Trump, who lost the 2020 election and left the White House under the cloud of impeachment for his role in the Jan. 6 riots, has filed to run for president again. https://t.co/SYnTEfM5RN pic.twitter.com/sHKjt5nN08
— POLITICO (@politico) November 16, 2022

Home run. pic.twitter.com/bTZa2E0WaY
— RSchooley@socel.net (@Rschooley) November 16, 2022

BREAKING: Donald Trump, who tried to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential election and inspired a deadly riot at the Capitol in a desperate attempt to keep himself in power, has filed to run for president again in 2024. https://t.co/iqIcaN3SZA
— NPR (@NPR) November 16, 2022

Trump jumps into 2024 race with GOP at crossroads

Posted on November 16, 2022 (Updated November 16, 2022) by Brett Samuels

President Trump is mounting a comeback bid with the hope that the GOP will once again rally behind him — just as some Republicans worry nominating him for president for a third time is a recipe for failure at the ballot box.

The former president announced the launch of his 2024 presidential campaign from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida Tuesday night, claiming the country has slipped into anarchy under President Biden and arguing he could repeat the policy successes of his first term.

But he did so at a time when the calls from some party members to move on from Trump are as loud as they’ve been since he left office under the cloud of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and a second impeachment.

Trump pointed to a strong economy before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, reworked trade deals and a brash approach to international relations that kept the U.S. out of foreign conflicts as a case for another term.

But he ignored the major concerns some in the party have about his viability, steering clear of his pandemic response and his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol and absolving himself of blame for the party’s underwhelming midterm showing.

“The voting will be much different. 2024. Are you getting ready?” Trump said to applause. “I am, too.”

Republicans are sifting through the aftermath of last week’s midterm elections, where expected sweeping victories never materialized. Democrats will hold on to their majority in the Senate, while Republicans appear poised to retake the House with a smaller margin than many hoped.

For some prominent figures in the party, it served as an inflection point. And while many did not name Trump explicitly, their message was clear: The party can choose to move away from making Trump central to everything it does, or it can risk more stinging defeats in 2024.

“We underperformed among independents and moderates, because their impression of many of the people in our party in leadership roles is that they’re involved in chaos, negativity, excessive attacks, and it frightened independent and moderate Republican voters,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who served alongside Trump for four years, said on SiriusXM that the candidates who fared best in the midterms offered forward-looking solutions to major problems like inflation and crime, while “candidates that were focused on relitigating the last election, I think, did not fare as well.”

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) called the 2022 midterms “the funeral for the Republican Party as we know it.”

And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who is viewed as perhaps Trump’s chief rival for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, expressed concern that the party was unable to capitalize on Biden’s unpopularity with many voters.

“These independent voters aren’t voting for our candidates, even with Biden in the White House and the failures that we’re seeing. That’s a problem,” DeSantis said Tuesday.

Some of the blame for the GOP’s underwhelming midterm performance has fallen on Trump, whose endorsements helped carry candidates through Senate, House and gubernatorial primaries but not to victory in the general elections.

Trump made a point to address the midterm outcome during his speech, and he even acknowledged the party was facing deserved criticism. But the criticism should not be directed at him, Trump said.

Many of Trump’s highest profile and most meaningful endorsements lost in the general election: Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania’s Senate and gubernatorial races, respectively; Blake Masters and Kari Lake in Arizona’s Senate and gubernatorial races, respectively; Tudor Dixon in Michigan’s gubernatorial race; Tim Michels in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race; and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire’s Senate race.

Trump instead blamed voters for the poor showing for Republicans, suggesting they did not yet realize how bad the Biden administration’s policies would be for them.

“Citizens of our country have not yet realized the pain our country is going through … they don’t quite feel it yet. But they will very soon,” Trump said. “I have no doubt that by 2024 it will sadly be much worse, and they will see much more clearly what happened.”

The midterm results have left Trump’s influence within the party at perhaps its most precarious point since right after he left the White House, when many Republicans appeared ready to distance themselves from Trump after he spent months whipping supporters into a frenzy over the 2020 election, culminating in the riot at the Capitol.

While that criticism faded and much of the GOP has remained loyal to Trump in the two years since, the question now is whether the former president can stave off the push among some conservatives to move on to a candidate who can carry on Trump’s brand of politics without the baggage.

Pence has indicated he is giving thought to a 2024 presidential bid, as has former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Both have said Trump’s campaign launch will not affect their decisions.

DeSantis, meanwhile, has become the star of the moment for many conservatives, earning fawning coverage from Fox News and the New York Post after a landslide reelection win last week.

The conservative Club for Growth, which broke with Trump on some of his midterm endorsements, released a poll on the eve of his 2024 announcement showing DeSantis leading Trump in head-to-head match-ups in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as their home state of Florida.

A Politico-Morning Consult poll released this week, however, was more favorable for Trump, finding that 47 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would back him in a presidential primary if it were held today, compared to 33 percent who said they’d support the Florida governor.

Since 2015, the party has been molded in Trump’s image. He reshaped the way the GOP discusses immigration, international alliances and trade. He brought scores of new voters into the fold, solidified the party’s hold on states like Ohio and Florida and developed a devoted following, giving him a remarkably high floor of support within the party.

But Trump has also turned off independent and moderate voters with his unpredictability, his constant personal attacks on those who criticize or oppose him, his fixation on the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen and his legal entanglements over his business dealings and handling of classified documents, the latter of which involved a search of the property where he made Tuesday night’s announcement.

Tuesday’s speech served as the start of what will be a lengthy decisionmaking process for the GOP about whether it will remain Trump’s party for the foreseeable future, or if the electorate is ready to move on.

"The journey ahead of us will not be easy,” Trump said. “Anyone who truly seeks to take on this rigged and corrupt system will be faced with a storm of fire that only a few could understand.”

Five things to know about Andy Biggs

Posted on November 15, 2022 (Updated November 15, 2022) by Julia Mueller

Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.) on Monday night announced that he’ll challenge House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) to become the Republican conference’s nominee for Speaker of the House.

“We have a new paradigm here, and I think the country wants a different direction from the House of Representatives. And it’s a new world, and, yes, I’m going to be nominated tomorrow to — to the position of Speaker of the House,” Biggs said on Newsmax.

The Arizona lawmaker had argued last week that the party should reconsider rallying behind McCarthy, who announced his bid the day after the midterm elections.

McCarthy won an internal vote on Tuesday to become the House Speaker, 188-31, but will still have to gain a majority of 218 votes in his favor when the next Congress begins on Jan. 3, assuming a fully sworn-in House.

Republicans’ anticipated “red wave” failed to rush over the nation with hoped-for GOP wins in the midterms. Democrats were able to buck historical precedent and hold on to power in the Senate and put up a tougher-than-expected fight for the House.

Now, a week after Election Day, votes are still being tallied to determine which party will snag the lower chamber majority. Republicans believe they’ll grab control with a slim majority.

Here are five things to know about Biggs as he makes his bid to take the top Speaker spot and challenge longtime GOP leader McCarthy:

Served as Freedom Caucus chairman

Biggs was formerly the chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, a far-right bloc now led by Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

The caucus is known for its confrontational tactics and willingness to criticize House GOP leadership, making the group a potential challenge for McCarthy if he does become Speaker.

The group has also pressed GOP leadership to make rule changes that would empower individual members in the House Republican Conference, including a tweak that would let any member to make a “motion to vacate the Chair,” or oust the Speaker.

Introduced articles of impeachment against Mayorkas

Biggs has introduced articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, a target of conservatives critical of the Biden administration’s policies and action on the U.S.-Mexico border.

“Mayorkas and [U.S. Attorney General Merrick] Garland have purposefully made our country less safe, politicized their departments, and violated the rule of law. In some instances, they have instructed their subordinates to disobey our laws. That is unacceptable,” Biggs said earlier this year.

“Next January I expect the House to pursue my impeachment articles against Mayorkas,” he added.

McCarthy has also expressed that impeachment could be possible for Mayorkas if the secretary was found to be failing in his task to secure the border, though the likelihood of any success for such an initiative is low, even in a chamber with a slim GOP majority.

Friendly with Sen. Sinema

Biggs and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D), who has been accused by others in the Democratic Party of apathy toward some of the party’s issues, have been friendly since their days working together in the Arizona legislature.

"I love Andy Biggs. I know some people think he's crazy, but that's just because they don't know him," Sinema said of Biggs, according to New York Times reporters Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns in their book “This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden and the Battle for America’s Future.”

Biggs is one of the most conservative members of Congress and has resisted President Biden's 2020 win in Arizona, which Biden flipped from red to blue.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on Sunday said Sinema “did nothing” to help the state's Democrats in the midterm elections and accused her of wanting her party to lose.

Considered a Senate bid

The Arizona Republican weighed a bid to jump from the lower chamber up to the Senate.

Biggs said last year that he was “seriously considering” a run as former President Trump readied to boost his supporters in their midterm bids.

Biggs, a longtime ally of the former president, would have faced off against incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D), who was projected last week to defeat Republican challenger Blake Masters in one of the races that was key to boosting Democrats to hold their Senate majority.

The congressman ultimately decided to run for a fourth term in the House and is projected to win his district by a wide margin.

Subpoenaed by the Jan. 6 committee

The former Freedom Caucus chairman has come under scrutiny for his involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot after he touted Trump’s false claims of election fraud during the 2020 presidential election.

The House select committee investigating Jan. 6 subpoenaed Biggs and a handful of other GOP House lawmakers, including McCarthy, after they refused to voluntarily testify.

The committee alleged that Biggs was involved in “plans to bring protestors to Washington for the counting of Electoral College votes” and "efforts to persuade state officials that the 2020 was stolen.”

The panel named Biggs among a number of Republican lawmakers who asked for presidential pardons for their role in trying to overturn election results in certain states on Jan. 6.

McCarthy wins GOP vote for Speakership handily over right-wing challenge

Posted on November 15, 2022 (Updated November 15, 2022) by Emily Brooks

House Republicans nominated Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) to be Speaker in a closed-door conference meeting on Tuesday after he faced a last-minute protest challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), a former chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

McCarthy won easily, 188 to 31, in the internal conference meeting. But in the eyes of Biggs and his supporters, the goal was merely to demonstrate that McCarthy lacks the support to seize the gavel when the full House meets to choose the Speaker early next year.

The 31 votes opposing McCarthy easily met that threshold, raising immediate questions about how McCarthy — who had failed to ascend to Speaker in 2015 — will make up the difference between now and then.

The secret-ballot House Republican Conference vote is just the first step for McCarthy to take hold of the gavel. He must win a majority in a public vote on the House floor — at least 218 votes, assuming a fully sworn-in House — on the first day of the next Congress on Jan. 3.

Tuesday’s vote came as the final breakdown of House control remains unknown, with around a dozen races undecided and election projections putting Republicans just one vote shy of securing the majority.

The exact size of the slimmer-than-expected majority will have major implications for the rest of McCarthy’s path to the gavel, since he will be able to spare only a handful of defectors on the House floor. Rules changes and committee assignments may be among the bargaining chips McCarthy uses to woo opponents back to his side before Jan. 3.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a Freedom Caucus member who nominated Biggs for Speaker during the conference meeting on Tuesday, said that his position on McCarthy’s chances at becoming Speaker remained unchanged after Tuesday’s nomination.

“No one has 218 (or close, as needed). We have to sit down and establish the fundamental changes needed,” Roy said in a statement.

In a press conference, McCarthy said he thinks he will have the votes by January to become Speaker, pointing out that former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and current Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) similarly fell short of 218 votes in their internal party nominations before later securing the Speakership on the House floor. But he acknowledged it could be tough.

"Look, we have our work cut out for us. We've got to have a small majority. We've got to listen to everybody in our conference," McCarthy said.

But Biggs said on former Trump adviser Stephen Bannon’s “War Room” podcast on Tuesday that there are a “significant number of hard noes” for McCarthy in the House GOP.

The Freedom Caucus is pushing for changes to internal conference rules that, on the whole, would chip away at leadership’s power and give more to individual members — a major dynamic at play in Biggs’s challenge to McCarthy.

One of those requests is restoring any member’s ability to make a motion to vacate the chair, which would force a recall vote on the Speaker. Then-Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), a Freedom Caucus co-founder, made the motion in 2015, contributing to a rebellion that ended in former GOP Speaker John Boehner (Ohio) resigning from Congress later that year.

McCarthy is opposed to the change, arguing that it would give too much power to Democratic members.

The House GOP conference was set to vote on rules on Wednesday, much to the frustration of Freedom Caucus members, who requested that a vote on the rules happen before leadership elections.

But in what may be a sign of McCarthy being willing to negotiate more on rules, he announced on Tuesday that some rules changes would be considered on Wednesday and others considered after Thanksgiving, according to a person with knowledge of the meeting.

Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), a 36-year House veteran, acknowledged that McCarthy has his work cut out for him.

"Nothing's easy," said Upton, who's retiring at the end of this term. "He's going to work hard, I'm sure."

Upton said the dynamics remind him of the race to replace Boehner in 2015, when conservative opposition forced McCarthy to drop out of the contest. But with one major difference.

"Unlike before when, in essence, Kevin threw in the towel, he's not going to do it this time," Upton said. "They had an easy path before when Kevin backed off. He's not backing off this time."

Both supporters and opponents of McCarthy acknowledged a major difference between the internal nomination vote and the Jan. 3 vote that could improve McCarthy’s level of support: On the House floor, votes will be public and not secret — likely influencing those who do not want to upset McCarthy to vote for him.

Biggs launched a late challenge to McCarthy on Monday night and did not make a presentation beforehand at a House GOP leadership candidate forum, during which McCarthy got standing ovations.

“We have a new paradigm here, and I think the country wants a different direction from the House of Representatives,” Biggs said on Newsmax Monday night. He has previously expressed disappointment with McCarthy downplaying the prospects of impeachment for Biden administration officials like Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

Reps. Michael Cloud (Texas) and Ralph Norman (S.C.) seconded Roy’s nomination of Biggs in the conference meeting on Tuesday, according to a source in the room. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (N.D.) was among those who gave a speech in support of McCarthy.

Not all members of the Freedom Caucus agree with the tactic of challenging McCarthy, however.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), once a doubter of McCarthy’s ability to become Speaker, has become one of his most vocal supporters for the post — as she hopes to secure favorable committee assignments in the next Congress. A slim majority, she fears, could cause moderate Republicans to join Democrats and elect a compromise moderate candidate.

“We have to elect Kevin McCarthy,” Greene told reporters Monday. “I can’t support a challenge that will allow the Democrats to elect their own Speaker by pulling some of ours.”

The Speakership has been a longtime goal for McCarthy, who has been active in Republican politics since his young adulthood.

“Can I be Speaker?” McCarthy said in jest to a member presiding over the House at one point during an overnight, record-breaking speech on the House floor last year, when he delayed passage of a major Democratic tax, climate and spending bill.

After rising to minority leader in the California State Assembly, the Bakersfield, Calif., Republican was elected to the U.S. House in 2006, eventually rising through the leadership ranks from chief deputy whip to whip to majority leader.

But Biggs’s challenge is the latest chapter in the saga of McCarthy battling and wooing the House GOP’s right flank.

First came the conservative opposition that sank his 2015 Speakership bid, and then in 2018, Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), another member of the House Freedom Caucus, challenged him in the race for GOP leader.

But as the top House Republican for the last four years, McCarthy has given the right flank a seat at the table, unlike some of his leadership predecessors.

Jordan is set to become chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and is fully supporting McCarthy. Greene was invited to participate in McCarthy’s “Commitment to America” policy platform rollout in September.

And perhaps most notably, McCarthy quickly mended his relationship with former President Trump after saying that Trump bore responsibility for the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack, traveling to Mar-a-Lago to meet with him weeks later.

Trump threw his support behind McCarthy for Speaker before last week’s elections. McCarthy has not endorsed the former president running for a third time in 2024, which Trump is expected to announce Tuesday night.

Mike Lillis contributed.

Updated 6:10 p.m.

McCarthy, Emmer get House GOP nods during rift-ridden leadership elections

Posted on November 15, 2022 (Updated November 15, 2022) by By Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney

House GOP campaigns chief Tom Emmer on Tuesday prevailed in a fierce race for the No. 3 leadership post in a majority that Republicans are one midterm election victory from formally claiming, despite facing opposition over this month's narrower-than-expected victories.

The Minnesotan defeated Republican Study Committee Chair Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) on the second ballot after edging Chief Deputy Whip Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) by one vote during the first round of secret balloting in the battle to be majority whip next Congress. It caps off months of bitter jockeying for the House GOP’s highest open leadership role in years.

The whip victory represents a reward of sorts for Emmer, who headed the National Republican Congressional Committee for the past two cycles. Both saw Republicans gaining seats, but this year’s win was a massive disappointment for a party that projected winning an additional 20 to 30 seats. Despite some members arguing that the discouraging midterm threatened Emmer's prospects, he had already secured enough support from members who said he deserved credit for both cycles.

Emmer’s win also shatters a perceived conference curse: That NRCC chairs can’t move to higher roles in leadership, despite successful results at the ballot boxes. His victory at the closed conference meeting followed a 188-31 vote by House Republicans to nominate GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy for speaker over challenger Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), whose candidacy was pushed by the Donald Trump-aligned House Freedom Caucus.

The win, met with raucous applause according to five people in the room, came as hardliners sought to convey that their bloc of McCarthy skeptics is large enough to keep the GOP leader from the 218 votes he needs to become speaker come Jan. 3. And while the nomination marked a success for the California Republican, his trouble is far from over as he courts the necessary votes before the start of the new Congress — with Freedom Caucus members still demanding concessions that would weaken his hold on the conference.

“We're going to elect a Republican speaker, and if that's tumultuous so be it," said Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.). "But at the end of the day, Kevin McCarthy has the vast majority of members committed to him."

Yet there are already concerns among Republicans across the ideological spectrum that failing to rally around the right leaders will leave them further weakened against a stronger-than-expected House Democratic minority and a Democratic Senate. Freedom Caucus members like Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.), who is declining to say if he would back McCarthy, said the next GOP speaker will have to reflect a conference that has moved to the right.

“The Speaker of the House, whomever he or she is, will be required to recognize the center of gravity of the conference itself. And the Freedom Caucus has moved that center of gravity to the right,” Higgins said, criticizing past Speaker Paul Ryan for cutting bipartisan deals that were not “reflective of the deepest core principles of the American people.”

On the other side, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — a McCarthy headache in the past — whipped members to support the California Republican, arguing that dragged-out divisions could mean a Democratic candidate for speaker could pull an upset.

“If we don’t unify behind Kevin McCarthy, we’re opening up the door for the Democrats to be able to recruit some of our Republicans,” Greene said, adding that there was a “spirited discussion” with “some of my closest allies and I’ve been talking to them a lot.”

The election for House GOP conference chair ended in victory, 144-74, for New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who currently holds the spot and was widely favored to prevail against Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.). A Freedom Caucus member who challenged Stefanik from the right, Donalds didn't go down quietly — colleagues reported a feisty candidate forum on Monday.

Donalds sought to distinguish himself from the moderate-turned-MAGA New York Republican, touting his fundraising as well as his appeal to different voters as one of the two current Black House Republicans. His performance was met with mixed reviews, with some lawmakers saying he projected strength and others arguing he came off too aggressive.

Stefanik, the top-ranked woman in elected congressional GOP leadership, has silenced many conservatives who were critical of her past moderate voting record. Her colleagues have credited her for alleviating the headaches that came with Trump-critic Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

During the candidate forum, Stefanik fielded a question from Freedom Caucus member Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) about her pledge to stay in the position for only one term, telling the room of GOP lawmakers that she initially wanted to seek a committee gavel before colleagues encouraged her to run for a second term. It’s a signal that Stefanik’s team is looking to rewrite the narrative on that front, as her office has denied the one-term pledge.

The once-competitive race to lead the GOP campaign arm next cycle is now uncontested. Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) conceded on Monday, leaving Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) uncontested. And Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) faced no competition in his bid to jump to majority leader.

McCarthy faces a tougher path, however, as his quest for the House gavel is just getting started. While he's expected to win the party nomination Tuesday, he still needs to find a path to 218 floor votes by the beginning of January. Though Biggs challenged McCarthy Tuesday, the Freedom Caucus put him forward as a symbolic alternative meant to demonstrate the Californian’s lack of unified support.

Instead, Freedom Caucus members view the next seven weeks as critical time to force McCarthy to the negotiating table or keep building support for a consensus challenger. The group is pushing for a laundry list of changes to rules that govern both the conference and the full House, including strengthening the ability to oust a speaker and greater representation on an internal panel that doles out committee posts.

“We just view it as another step in the process to figure out where we are going. … No one has 218 or a sufficient number, and then the question is what are we going to do to get there,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) about what comes after Tuesday.

At least one Republican is already vowing to vote against McCarthy in January: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who has floated electing Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as an alternative. Depending on how narrow the GOP majority ends up, McCarthy can only afford to lose a handful of members in the full floor vote.

But any shift by McCarthy toward the Freedom Caucus is likely to cause problems with the center of the conference, where governing-minded members can also leverage a razor-thin majority and are emphasizing the importance of bipartisanship.

“I believe this is rather a prime moment for the Problem Solvers and Main Street GOP to make an important impact,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a moderate leader in the conference. “If we work in [a] bipartisan manner, we can hit singles and America wins.”

Some hardliners are taking the temperature of moderate Republicans on the speakership as centrists increasingly feel left out of the McCarthy-Freedom Caucus negotiations. One Republican familiar with the matter said Jordan and Gaetz have started talks with moderate Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), the head of the Republican Governance Group.

Some hypothesized that moderates coming together could be a threat to McCarthy’s bid, as they might team up with Democrats. Bacon shot down that idea.

“I believe we will get to 218 and that it will be Kevin,” the Nebraskan said.

Rep. Andy Biggs to challenge McCarthy for Speaker

Posted on November 15, 2022 (Updated November 15, 2022) by Emily Brooks

Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.) late Monday announced a run for Speaker, challenging House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) in the Republican conference’s nomination to the post.

“We’ll see if we can get the job done and the votes,” Biggs said. “It’s going to be tough. I mean, Kevin — Kevin has raised a lot of money and done a lot of things. But this is not just about Kevin. I think it’s about the institutional direction and trajectory.”

The challenge from Biggs, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, comes as House Republicans’ expectations of a red wave crashed into a ripple in last week’s midterms. Election projections have not yet called a majority of House seats in Republicans’ favor, but the GOP believes it will end up with a slim majority.

McCarthy needs to win a majority of votes from House GOP members in a secret-ballot election on Tuesday to secure his conference’s nomination for the post. After that, all House members will vote on the floor on the first day of the new Congress in January, when McCarthy would need at least 218 votes to secure the Speakership, assuming all 435 members are sworn in that day.

Biggs did not step up as an alternative to McCarthy at a House GOP leadership candidate forum on Monday afternoon, according to sources in the room.

Bigg’s challenge comes as the Freedom Caucus is pressing GOP leadership to make rules changes that, on the whole, would empower individual members and weaken the power of leadership.

His plan to challenge McCarthy, however, is not supported by all Freedom Caucus members.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) warned that Republicans in a slim majority face risks if they are not unified behind one candidate and that a handful of moderate House Republicans could join Democrats to support a compromise Speaker candidate.

"We have to elect Kevin McCarthy,” Greene told reporters Monday. “I can't support a challenge that will allow the Democrats to — to elect their own speaker by pulling some of ours.”

She added that she is trying to talk to her colleagues who are hesitant about supporting McCarthy to convince them to support the GOP leader.

In a validation of those fears, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a moderate, told NBC News on Monday that he would theoretically vote with Democrats to support a consensus candidate if McCarthy could not get 218 votes on the floor. But Bacon later stressed to reporters that he thinks McCarthy will get to that number and that working with Democrats is “not even a realistic scenario.”

There are concerns about who would be the consensus alternative 218 House Republicans could support on the floor. Freedom Caucus members helped to derail McCarthy’s Speakership bid in 2015 after former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) resigned, resulting in Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) becoming Speaker, which was later seen as a disappointment to some Freedom Caucus members.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who previously challenged McCarthy to lead House Republicans, has been brought up by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who is not a member of the Freedom Caucus, as a possible alternative. But Jordan, who is set to chair the House Judiciary Committee in a GOP majority, has repeatedly said that he supports McCarthy for Speaker.

Biggs told reporters last week that McCarthy’s reluctance to bring up impeachment articles made him question whether he should be Speaker. Biggs has introduced impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and joined impeachment resolutions against President Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland.

“I think that his statement recently that [we] shouldn't impeach Secretary Mayorkas indicates maybe we're not gonna be as aggressive going forward as we should be,” Biggs said last week.

McCarthy has downplayed prospects for bringing up impeachment multiple times, saying that he does not want to use it for “political purposes.”

Biggs also called for more “decentralization” of the conference and a more robust policy and oversight plan. “We need to have a very positive statement of what we're going to accomplish and do, and I haven't seen that yet,” he said last week.

McCarthy led House Republicans in releasing a “Commitment to America” policy and messaging plan for a House majority in September, but some Freedom Caucus members think that it was not explicit enough about plans for the majority.

Supporters of McCarthy are brushing off Biggs’s bid.

“I’ve got respect for Mr. Biggs. But at the end of the day, Kevin McCarthy is our best strategist. He’s our best fundraiser. He’s our best recruiter. He did more to retake the majority than anybody in the entire conference,” said Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), adding that not giving McCarthy the gavel now “would be an insult.”

Mychael Schnell contributed.

Updated 10:06 p.m.