Voters have little interest in taking away Nancy Pelosi’s Democratic House majority

At the federal level, Democrats face three distinct challenges: 1) win the White House, 2) take control of the U.S. Senate, and 3) retain control of the U.S. House. Of the three, that last one appears to be the easiest task. 

Civiqs Results

That’s about eight months of data, and you can see how stable the numbers are. The closest Republicans have made it is a six-point deficit, and the largest Democratic lead has been eight points. You can’t see it (it’s behind a paywall), but among white voters, it’s 53-41 Republican, because of, you know, “economic anxiety.” But that’s significantly offset by black voters (90-6) and Latinos (72-23). Note that Democrats have shown improvement among white voters—prior to impeachment, it was 53-39. 

Incredibly, it’s 61-33 Republican among white men. Among white women? 47-46, Democratic. Chew on that. That’s a 29-point gender gap! 

Also, white women weren’t pleased with Donald Trump’s acquittal in his impeachment trial: 

It’s a slight shift, but notice pro-Democratic bumps both when Trump was impeached in the House and then again when the Senate acquitted. In an otherwise static trend line, such subtle movements matter, particularly in our 50-50 country. 

Note that in 2018, the national House popular vote was 53-45, or … 8 points. As long as Democrats maintain the same margin, as they do in our current Civiqs tracker, we should hold on to the House relatively easily. Republicans are likely seeing the same numbers in their own internal polling, which is why so many of them are once again jumping ship. Actions speak louder than words, and in this case, they confirm the numbers. 

Retaining control of the House is of paramount importance as a bulwark against a potential second Trump term, given the difficulties of the Senate map (in short, winnable, but tough), and the uncertainness of the presidential contest (it’s not a gimme). And with victories in the courts, on ballot initiatives, and in successful efforts to pick up state legislatures (a battle that continues unabated this year), we will be in a much better place during the post-census redistricting battle. This is a majority we can build on. And so far, the public is in little mood to reverse course.