Trump’s lead just won’t budge: Why the debates may be Biden’s last shot

The presidential campaign is as frozen as the Arctic Circle.

Virtually nothing seems to melt the ice caps that have encased the race. 

The former president convicted of 34 felonies? Feels like it happened months ago, without exactly dooming the Trump candidacy.

TRUMP FOUND GUILTY BUT, FACING BIDEN, COULD STILL WIN BACK THE WHITE HOUSE

The current president’s son, also convicted of felonies? Now that’s deemed a mere distraction by those who used an impeachment inquiry to try to sink the Biden campaign.

Each attack, each smear, each controversy dominates the news and then quickly yields to the next real or perceived outrage, leaving little lasting impression on the shape of the race.

All this is bad news for Joe Biden, who has an anemic 38 percent approval rating and is on track to lose, despite the apparent closeness of the contest.

While Trump’s lead in such core battleground states as Michigan and Pennsylvania is often just 2 to 3 points, it’s been remarkably consistent (with the president having a slight edge in Wisconsin). If Scranton Joe can’t win Pennsylvania despite endless trips there, the election is over.

That’s why Biden abruptly challenged Trump to two debates, with the first one, on CNN, in less than 10 days. It’s really his last chance to bring some heat and shake up the race.

Now I could make the argument that the Trump team has lowered expectations for Biden to the point that if he avoids major gaffes and doesn’t fall off the stage, he wins. The CNN rules – two-minute answers, no notes, muting the opponent’s mike – will also favor the president.

VEEPSTAKES VERVE: CONTENDERS CREATE MEDIA BOOMLETS WITH LEAKS AND MANIPULATION

But debates can be overrated. Mitt Romney clobbered Barack Obama in their first debate and it didn’t matter. Hillary Clinton arguably won two or even three of her debates against Trump and it didn’t matter. 

The pressure is on Biden, who’s drilling with former top aide Ron Klain, to show that he’s aggressive and feisty as well as knowledgeable. Trump, who is doing only informal prep, will be hailed by his base no matter what he says or does.

In short, it will take something highly unusual to change many minds. Most Americans already know what they think of these guys.

The same goes for the Trump veepstakes. As Donald Trump told me, it doesn’t matter much because people vote for the top of the ticket. I think Doug Burgum has a somewhat better chance than when I first interviewed him three weeks ago, on this shorter short list that seems to include Tim Scott, Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance. 

But I can’t see that changing the race’s trajectory. What’s striking is that the anchors are now handling these as "vetting" interviews about each candidate’s record, because they believe one of them may well be moving into the vice president’s mansion.

Trump’s GOP unity day on the Hill got muddied when he criticized Milwaukee, the host city for next month’s convention. Even though Trump said he was talking mainly about crime in the city – which is actually down substantially this year – I’m not sure why he needed to go there.

The 78-year-old Trump is so anxious to depict the 81-year-old Biden as mentally unfit for the job that minor incidents are being exaggerated and distorted. There’s no question, as I said on the air, that Biden often comes across as frail and confused. 

But after a $30-million L.A. fundraiser over the weekend, Obama grabbed his arm and then kept touching his back as they exited the stage. This went viral as the former president was depicted as "leading" his onetime VP away.

Earlier, the New York Post, taking its lead from the RNC, misleadingly cropped a photo as if Biden was talking to no one at the G-7 in Italy. A wider angle showed Biden was saying a few words and giving a thumbs up to a skydiver who had landed next to the world leaders before the Italian prime minister led him back to the group. 

THERE’S ‘CORROSION’ IN HOW THE MEDIA COVERS POLITICS: LUCY CALDWELL

Despite a couple of flashy media headlines, I did not criticize Fox’s coverage, though sometimes that comes with the job. I made a point of saying that the coverage by "Fox & Friends" was perfectly straightforward. We played a clip of Sean Hannity criticizing Biden, but there was no suggestion that he didn’t show the proper footage; he was paired with Joe Scarborough hitting Biden’s critics, as we often do to convey the range of commentary.

In my view, there’s little doubt that most of the media believe Trump will win the election, and here’s the proof.

The New York Times just ran a deep dive on how the Trump resistance is already laying the groundwork to battle and stymie him in a second term.

These groups "are drafting potential lawsuits in case he is elected in November and carries out mass deportations, as he has vowed. One group has hired a new auditor to withstand any attempt by a second Trump administration to unleash the Internal Revenue Service against them. Democratic-run state governments are even stockpiling abortion medication.

"A sprawling network of Democratic officials, progressive activists, watchdog groups and ex-Republicans has been taking extraordinary steps to prepare for a potential second Trump presidency, drawn together by the fear that Mr. Trump’s return to power would pose a grave threat not just to their agenda but to American democracy itself." 

SUBSCRIBE TO HOWIE'S MEDIA BUZZMETER PODCAST, A RIFF ON THE DAY'S HOTTEST STORIES

A newspaper simply doesn’t devote the enormous resources the Times did to this investigative piece without believing a Trump victory is at the least very likely.

Some groups are described as "wary" of discussing their plans for fear of signaling a lack of confidence in the Biden campaign, which is exactly what it signals.

And that brings us back to the CNN debate.

Biden is really running out of time to change the narrative of the race. The debate will probably be a wash, but it’s his only shot. Otherwise, the frozen campaign will wind up freezing him out.

Army vet predicts first red flip of North Carolina district since 1883, citing Biden-era malaise

An Army veteran backed by House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik’s women-candidate-recruiting PAC told Fox News Digital this week that she believes she can make history in North Carolina.

Retired Col. Laurie Buckhout said her district is the poorest in North Carolina, and while the economy and jobs are top-of-mind to voters, the first issue they mention to her is immigration.

It is the combination of poverty, an influx of drugs from south of the border and a general malaise in the Biden era that has her potential constituents clamoring for change, Buckhout said. 

She noted her district, which spans from suburban Rocky Mount across nearly 200 miles of small towns to the Outer Banks tourist communities of Duck and Corolla, has not elected a Republican since Chester Arthur was president. 

TRUMP-ENDORSED NASCAR DRIVER WINS GOP PRIMARY IN MAINE

"It has been Democrat-led for 141 years, which tells you a lot about why it is the poorest one in North Carolina," she told a large audience at a Wednesday event dubbed "E-PAC" and hosted by Stefanik. "This is our real chance to flip this right now... Democrats are scared."

"My opponent, [Rep.] Don Davis, [D-N.C.] – one of the nicest guys in Congress – is hiding every time Biden comes into the state – they put $850,000 toward him just in the month of May in positive ads."

Speaking to Fox News Digital after the event, Buckhout said it is heartbreaking to see the poverty and signs of drug abuse in many towns where she lives.

"It is poverty. It is jobs. It's the economy. They've been struggling for years. And then you bring Biden in, and he's got his crazy spending and these energy policies that are just crushing [eastern North Carolina] and my highly agrarian district."

However, despite the economic burden, voters tell Buckhout that the border is their top issue.

"I've been talking to some of the poorest folks in the district, and they'll say they're worried about their children's futures."

FLASHBACK: TED BUDD SLAMS OPPONENT, SAYS CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICIES ARE ON THE BALLOT

In the eastern part of the district, touristy beachfront towns and inland villages are being hit hard by the Biden economy as tourism dollars from the thousands of northerners who vacation there have dropped, she said.

"People can't afford to hop in the car and just go for these long trips anymore. So you see businesses closing, you see little hotels closing. It's a significant impact," said Buckhout, whose hometown of Edenton is one of those soundfront communities.

In response to her criticism, Davis said his primary focus is the families of eastern North Carolina and laid out why he is a "recognized bipartisan leader in Congress."

"I have also been vocal in challenging the White House on issues like WOTUS, the menthol ban, Seymour Johnson AFB job cuts, and the border crisis. I have personally made over 200 visits to counties in the East, traveled to Israel and Ukraine and made multiple trips to the southern border," Davis said.

Pollsters and election analysts in North Carolina also offered their take to Fox News Digital on Buckhout’s confidence in a historic Republican shift in her district:

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

One pollster, Professor Peter Francia of East Carolina University in Greenville, said the district has shifted to the right a bit after the 2020 census redistricting, from its comfortable Democratic position.

"The election in the 1st Congressional District in North Carolina will not only be the most competitive congressional election in the state, it could turn out to be one of the most competitive elections in the nation," Francia said.

‘Remain vigilant’: Pence nonprofit urges conservatives not to ‘back away’ from these key policy victories

FIRST ON FOX: Advancing American Freedom, a nonprofit that advocates for conservative values and policy proposals, released a memo on Tuesday touting key "triumphs" from the 2020 RNC platform and encouraging conservatives to continue fighting to defend those key issues.

"The 2016 Republican National Convention platform, retained in 2020, was the most principled conservative platform in nearly 40 years," Advancing American Freedom, founded by former Vice President Mike Pence in 2021, says in Tuesday's memo.

"As always, liberal Republicans want to water down many of the Conservative Movements’ favorite planks. Grassroots conservatives must remain vigilant in defense of a strong conservative platform."

The memo outlines key points from the platform on abortion that calls for protecting "Human Dignity and the family."

MIKE PENCE ACCUSES BIDEN OF IMPEACHMENT HYPOCRISY AMID ISRAEL ARMS THREAT

"We assert the sanctity of human life and affirm that the unborn child has a fundamental right to life which cannot be infringed," the memo reads, adding that the Republican Party must continuee to "oppose the use of public funds to perform or promote abortion or to fund organizations, like Planned Parenthood, so long as they provide or refer for elective abortions or sell fetal body parts."

Republicans and pro-life groups helped successfully lobbied to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022, marking one of the most consequential conservative political victories in decades, which Pence told Fox News in 2023 was a "new beginning for life."

US TROOPS COULD PAY PRICE IF NATO ALLIES DON'T MAKE MAJOR CHANGE, FORMER VP'S GROUP WARNS

The memo also touches on IVF treatment and calls on Republicans to "oppose federal funding for harvesting embryos and call for a ban on human cloning."

"Marriage between one man and one woman is the foundation for a free society," the memo states as a highlight from the 2020 platform. "We… condemn the Supreme Court’s lawless ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges."

The memo goes on to highlight conservative positions on "taxes and trade" as well as foreign policy.

"Republicans consider the establishment of a pro-growth tax code a moral imperative," the memo says. "We propose to level the international playing field by lowering the corporate tax rate to be on a par with, or below, the rates of other industrial nations."

The memo focuses on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan when it comes to foreign policy, saying that conservatives "will not accept any territorial change in Eastern Europe imposed by force" when it comes to Ukraine while also reaffirming "unequivocal support for Israel and rejected two-state solutions."

 "The United States… will help Taiwan defend itself against Chinese aggression," the memo says. "As a loyal friend of America, Taiwan has merited our strong support, including free trade agreement status, the timely sale of defensive arms… and full participation in the World Health Organization… and other multilateral institutions."

Republicans will gather in mid-July in the key swing state of Wisconsin to hold their 2024 GOP Convention.

"Time-honored principles that have delivered enormous prosperity for America should continue to drive policy as the platform articulated in 2016 and 2020," said AAF Chairman Marc Short told Fox News Digital.

"Some in the conservative movement are attempting to move away from these principles, instead chasing big government solutions that resemble the agenda of the left.  Conservatives must not back away from what has created a winning agenda for the American people which is focusing on fiscal responsibility, a free economy, American leadership on the world stage, and defending family values, including the right to life."

‘Boom’: Democrats celebrate Trump guilty verdict as Biden weighs remaining threat

Congressional Democrats rejoiced Thursday following a New York jury's guilty verdict against former President Trump on charges of falsifying business records.

"In New York today, we saw that no one is above the law," Biden campaign spokesperson Michael Tyler said in a post-verdict statement. 

"Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain. But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president."

'ELECTION INTERFERENCE' CLAIMS MUDDY BATTLEGROUND STATE POLITICS AMID COMPETITIVE RACES

But, according to Tyler, "The threat Trump posed to our democracy has never been greater." 

Trump was found guilty of all 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. 

The verdict marks the first time a U.S. president has been convicted of a crime. 

"Boom," Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., said in a brief post to X, formerly Twitter. 

SPEAKER JOHNSON PLANS TO INVITE ISRAEL'S NETANYAHU TO MEET WITH CONGRESS SOONER RATHER THAN LATER

"Guilty. Today, 12 ordinary American citizens found a former president guilty of dozens of felonies. Despite his efforts to distract, delay, and deny — justice arrived for Donald Trump all the same. And the rule of law prevailed," said Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., who is running for a Senate seat. 

House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, D-Mass., released a statement following the verdict, claiming, "Trump made deception a cornerstone of his campaign for the White House.

"And now, he will go down in history as the president who has two impeachments and 34 felony convictions to his name — with more trials to come. The American people deserve so much better."

ANTISEMITISM AT YALE, UNIV. OF MICHIGAN TO FACE CONGRESSIONAL SCRUTINY

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., wrote, "It matters that the Republican nominee for president is a convicted criminal.

"And this won’t be his last conviction," he added. "He’s committed multiple crimes, and he’s going to be convicted multiple times. He can never be president again."

GOP SEN CALLS FOR CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION INTO TRUMP TRIAL JUDGE OVER GAG ORDERS

Top Biden surrogate Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., wrote on X: "The jury has spoken. Justice has prevailed."

While the president's campaign welcomed the verdict, Biden White House counsel spokesperson Ian Sams was more guarded, saying, "We respect the rule of law and have no additional comment."

Some moderate Democratic lawmakers were more measured than their colleagues in their responses. 

"Every American deserves their day in court. Former President Trump got his," Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., said in a statement. 

Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat who represents the battleground state of Arizona, called it "a sad day for our nation to see, for the first time, a former president convicted on criminal charges.

"I respect the independence of our justice system and the integrity of this trial."   

While a number of Democrats sounded off about the trial's result, most of Congress's Democratic leadership in the House and Senate notably kept quiet. 

Former Trump official wins tight Texas GOP primary runoff

A former Trump campaign official has won a tight primary fight and will now serve as the representative of a deep-red Texas House district.

Republican Katrina Pierson, who served as the spokesperson for former President Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, defeated incumbent state Rep. Justin Holland in Tuesday's primary runoff for Texas' 33rd House District, and is the presumptive winner of November's general election since no Democrat candidate is standing in the race.

Pierson had the backing of Republican Texas Gov. Gregg Abott, who sought to oust incumbent Republicans opposed to some of his policy objectives.

WATCH: BUSINESSMAN REVEALS PLAN TO FLIP CALIFORNIA HOUSE SEAT AS THESE TOP 2 ISSUES TAKE CENTER STAGE

Holland, who was first elected in 2016, opposed key legislation supported by Abbott that would have paved the way for Texas parents to send their children to private or religious affiliated schools using public funding. A group of 21 Republicans, including Holland, joined all Democrats in opposing the measure last year.

Holland has also faced scrutiny for a number of other positions he's taken, including supporting legislation last year that would have raised the age to purchase "assault" style rifles from 18 to 21, and voting in favor of impeaching Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Pierson gained Paxton's backing ahead of the March primary, while Abbott endorsed her ahead of the runoff.

Republicans currently hold 86 of the 150 seats in the Texas state House, a majority of 11.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Opposed by top Texas Republicans and Trump, state House speaker survives GOP primary runoff challenge

The Associated Press projects that Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan will survive a Republican primary runoff election challenge by David Covey.

Phelan's victory in a state House district east of Houston is seen as a political setback for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and former President Donald Trump, as well as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

Phelan oversaw the effort last year to impeach Paxton over corruption charges. Paxton was acquitted by the state Senate after the House overwhelmingly impeached the controversial attorney general. 

CONTROVERSIAL MOVE: ABBOTT PARDONS ARMY SERGEANT WHO KILLED BLM PROTESTER

In response, Paxton targeted over 30 GOP incumbent state representatives, with Phelan at the top of the list. Paxton's most powerful ally, Trump, endorsed Covey.

Meanwhile, Abbott was looking for payback over the downing in the state House last year of his education plan that would have opened the spigot for taxpayer funding of private schools. The school voucher measure, which was Abbott's top legislative item last year, passed the state Senate, but its downing in the state House was a rare political setback for the three-term governor.

HEAD HERE FOR THE LATEST FOX NEWS 2024 PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS 

Nine GOP state House lawmakers went down to defeat in the state's March primary, with eight more forced into runoffs. All were targeted by either Abbott or Paxton, or by both the governor and the attorney general.

"It’s a power play and definitely a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party of Texas and Gov. Abbott wants to get legislators in there who will support his agenda," veteran Texas-based Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Fox News last week.

"For Ken Paxton and [Lt. Gov.] Dan Patrick and Donald Trump by proxy, for them, it is definitely trying to take out the person who led the impeachment against Ken Paxton and who stood in the way of Dan Patrick’s agenda in the Senate. All those factors together make a really powerful force for the Speaker to overcome," he emphasized.

The race was also seen as a proxy battle for the future of the GOP in Texas.

Phelan was backed by old guard Republicans and conservative-leaning business leaders who helped bring the GOP to power in Texas in the 1980s and 1990s. Covey enjoyed the support of not only Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Paxton and Trump, but also far-right activists who place more of an emphasis on social and cultural issues.

If Phelan had lost, he would have become the first Texas House speaker to be ousted in a primary in over a half century.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Fifth-generation Texan advances past GOP primary runoff to take on progressive homeless activist

State Rep. Craig Goldman secured the Republican nomination for the open 12th Congressional District in Texas in a runoff Tuesday, a seat opening up due to the retirement of Rep. Kay Granger, according to the Associated Press.

Goldman won in a runoff after neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the March primary. Granger has held the seat since 1997 but is retiring at the end of the term. 

The race had been a demonstration of the split in the state’s Republican Party. O’Shea had framed himself an "America First" candidate and had touted the backing of Attorney General Ken Paxton and Trump allies, including Roger Stone and Gen. Michael Flynn.

TEXAS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RUNOFFS FEATURE POLITICAL REVENGE, TRUMP AS KEY FACTORS

"It is an honor to support John O’Shea for Texas’ 12th. John is a friend who I have found to be a dedicated husband and father who will put family, faith and country first," Paxton said in a statement backing the candidate. 

O'Shea argued the U.S. "has a number of higher priority issues that must be addressed to ensure our citizens are taken care of before focusing on other global matters."

Goldman, a fifth-generation Texan, meanwhile, had the endorsement of Gov. Greg Abbott and Speaker Dade Phelan, and had voted to impeach Paxton in 2023.  He had promised to be a "conservative fighter who will prioritize border security and the American taxpayer."

CONTROVERSIAL MOVE: ABBOTT PARDONS ARMY SERGEANT WHO KILLED BLM PROTESTER

O’Shea had used that vote for Paxton's impeachment to hit his opponent. 

"There is a civil war in the party in the state of Texas," O’Shea said in April, according to the Texas Tribune. "I like to characterize it as the America First-Paxton side, and then there’s the establishment team Phelan side. You have a candidate who represents each one of those two sides. The choice is clear. Now, you have a chance to choose."

Goldman has pushed back against claims he is less conservative than O’Shea, arguing he had a proven conservative voting record.

"That’s the difference between John and I," Goldman said at an April debate, according to KERA News.

The winner of the Republican primary runoff will face Trey Hunt, a progressive activist and mental health professional who has been outspoken on homeless issues. Hunt, whose campaign website says he was "born and raised in Southwest Fort Worth," is running to push for "reform in the criminal justice system," "guaranteeing abortion rights" for women and other issues.

HEAD HERE FOR THE LATEST FOX NEWS 2024 PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS

Both Republican candidates have emphasized their stances on tackling illegal immigration in a state that has been on the frontline of the ongoing migrant crisis at the southern border. They have both also highlighted their positions on abortion and Second Amendment rights.

It’s one of a number of races in which Abbott and Paxton have chosen opposing candidates. They have done so in five separate races. Both lawmakers have scores to settle, with Paxton targeting those Republicans who voted to impeach him last year on corruption charges and Abbott eyeing those who defeated his 2023 education plan. The school voucher measure, which was Abbott's top legislative item last year, passed the state Senate, but its defeat in the state House was a rare political setback for Abbott.

"It’s a power play and definitely a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party of Texas, and Gov. Abbott wants to get legislators in there who will support his agenda," veteran Texas-based Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Fox News.

Granger had backed Goldman for the seat, touting his credentials as a "staunch advocate for a strong national defense."

Phelan faces his own challenge in District 21 from oil and gas consultant David Covey. Phelan oversaw the impeachment effort against Paxton. He was later censured by the Texas GOP for the effort. 

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser and the Associated Press contributed to this report. 

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Texas Republican primary runoffs feature political revenge, Trump as key factors

Two of the most powerful Republicans in Texas are aiming to settle some political scores in Tuesday's GOP primary runoff elections.

And a Republican congressman whose district was the scene of the horrific Uvalde school shooting in 2022 and who's bucked his party on key issues is fighting for his political life against an opponent backed by far-right members of the House.

The showdown grabbing the most headlines is east of Houston, where Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan is facing off against challenger David Covey, who is supported by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and former President Trump.

Phelan oversaw the effort last year to impeach Paxton over corruption charges. Paxton was acquitted by the state Senate after the House overwhelmingly impeached the controversial attorney general.

CONTROVERSIAL MOVE: ABBOTT PARDONS ARMY SERGEANT WHO KILLED BLM PROTESTER

In response, Paxton has targeted more than 30 GOP incumbent state representatives, with Phelan at the top of the list. And Paxton's most powerful ally, Trump, endorsed Covey.

Three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is looking for payback over the downing in the state House last year of his education plan that would have opened the spigot for taxpayer funding of private schools. The school voucher measure, which was Abbott's top legislative item last year, passed the state Senate, but its defeat in the state House was a rare political setback for Abbott.

HEAD HERE FOR THE LATEST FOX NEWS 2024 PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS

Nine GOP state House lawmakers went down to defeat in the state's March primary, with eight more forced into runoffs. All were targeted by either Abbott or Paxton, or by both the governor and the attorney general.

"It’s a power play and definitely a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party of Texas, and Gov. Abbott wants to get legislators in there who will support his agenda," veteran Texas-based Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Fox News.

"For Ken Paxton and [Lt. Gov.] Dan Patrick and Donald Trump by proxy, for them, it is definitely trying to take out the person who led the impeachment against Ken Paxton and who stood in the way of Dan Patrick’s agenda in the Senate. All those factors together make a really powerful force for the speaker to overcome."

Another legislative runoff that may capture some headlines is in suburban Dallas where former Trump campaign adviser and spokesperson Katrina Pierson – with the backing of both Abbot and Paxton – is aiming to unseat state Rep. Justin Holland.

A Republican congressional primary runoff sure to grab national attention is in the southwestern part of the state, where GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales is running for a third two-year term representing a majority Hispanic district that stretches along the U.S.-Mexico border  

With more than 800 miles of U.S.-Mexico border, Texas’s 23rd district has the largest stretch of the border territory of any congressional district. The district is also home to Uvalde, where two years ago 19 children and two adults were murdered in an elementary school shooting.

Gonzales, who has bucked his party on gun safety, immigration and same-sex marriage, is facing off in the runoff against gun rights advocate Brandon Herrera, who's known for his gun-themed YouTube channel titled "The AK Guy."

While Gonzales is backed by Abbot and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Herrera is backed by controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and other far-right House members.

Steinhauser noted that Herrer is branding the showdown as "an establishment-versus-far-right populist race" and that Gonzales "knows that he needs to [protect] his right flank"

But he added that "Tony has a pretty big presence in the conservative eco ecosystem. He’s on Fox News a lot, talking about the border."

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Biden torched by Republicans for tougher immigration rule ahead of November election

Republicans slammed President Biden for a newly proposed Department of Homeland Security rule that they claim is just an election-year move to help him in a close match with former President Trump. 

"Biden is announcing these new rules on criminal migrants because they have released migrants with links to terrorism into America and are now scrambling to cover themselves in case we have an attack before the election," said Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on X, formerly Twitter.

DHS announced the proposed rule change, which would move up "statutory bars to asylum" in the evaluation process, last week. 

DEMS PLAN TO REVIVE BORDER BILL REJECTED BY REPUBLICANS AHEAD OF NOVEMBER ELECTION

A DHS official told Fox News Digital that the proposed rule would not change any eligibility standards but would only move the assessment of security threats up in the process. 

"This rule would enable DHS to more quickly remove those who are subject to the bars and pose a risk to our national security or public safety," read a press release from the department. 

"During his first 100 days, President Biden took 94 executive actions to OPEN the border," wrote Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., on X. "Now, just months before an election, he finally took an obvious step that should have been taken years ago."

She called the move "small and necessary," but claimed, "It does nothing to address the larger border crisis he created."

SCHUMER MAY LET CONTROVERSIAL BIDEN NOMINEE WITH 'PROBLEMATIC' TIES QUIETLY EXPIRE: EXPERT

This sentiment was echoed by Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., who said on X: "Less than 6 months before an election, he is attempting 1 small change the narrative on our chaotic border – they already have the authority to do so much more, but they won’t." 

The White House did not provide comment to Fox News Digital over the criticism. 

VULNERABLE DEMOCRATIC SENATOR BACKS LAKEN RILEY IMMIGRATION BILL AHEAD OF TOUGH RE-ELECTION IN RED STATE

While Republicans were suspicious of the Biden administration's motivations for the change, not every Democrat was happy with it either. 

An advocate for the rights of asylum-seekers, Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., said on X: "I’m closely reviewing the Administration’s proposed rule. Concerned that moving the asylum bars to the initial credible fear interview stage risks returning legitimate asylum seekers to danger."

"To improve the asylum system we must fully fund it and provide access to counsel," he added. 

"The proposed rule we have published today is yet another step in our ongoing efforts to ensure the safety of the American public by more quickly identifying and removing those individuals who present a security risk and have no legal basis to remain here," Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement regarding the rule. "We will continue to take action, but fundamentally it is only Congress that can fix what everyone agrees is a broken immigration system."

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION GRANTED SANCTIONS RELIEF TO ARAB NATIONS JUST BEFORE PRESIDENT'S ISRAEL AID THREAT

Mayorkas recently made history by becoming only the second Cabinet official to be impeached, with the House passing two articles against him. The previous Cabinet-level impeachment occurred more than 100 years prior. However, the secretary was not removed from office as Senate Democrats were able to swiftly dismiss the articles upon delivery. 

The proposal comes just months ahead of the presidential election in November, which is shaping up to be a close rematch between Biden and Trump. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is also seeking to shift attention back to the border in the legislature, where he is strongly considering reviving a border bill that nearly all Republicans opposed, per a source familiar. 

Several incumbent Democratic senators face significant challenges in the upcoming elections, where the party will fight to hold onto its Senate majority. 

Longtime Dem senator rails against big companies’ ‘greedflation,’ but donor records show another story

Longtime Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has made "greedflation" and rising prices at stores a key election platform in 2024, but donor records reviewed by Fox News Digital show he’s benefited from the big stores he rails against on the campaign trail. 

"Bob Casey calls it greedflation, and he's fighting back," an ad published in March by the campaign says. 

"My plan gives the Federal Trade Commission the power to punish corporate price gouging. Let's roll back their huge tax breaks to put money where money it belongs, in your pocket," Casey says in the ad. 

Another ad, published in April, detailed that chicken, toilet paper and cereal prices have all increased, pinning blame on "big corporations."

PENNSYLVANIA POLICE SLAM LONGTIME DEM SEN. CASEY 'ALIGNING' HIMSELF WITH DEFUND THE POLICE GROUP: 'DANGEROUS'

Fox News Digital reviewed Casey’s donor contributions and found that despite sounding the alarm that chicken prices have increased by 35%, the Casey campaign received $9,000 from a PAC representing the largest poultry producer in the U.S., Cargill Inc., since 2017, Federal Election Commission data shows

LONGTIME PA DEM SILENT ON SUPPORT FOR FRESHMAN 'SQUAD' MEMBER AFTER HIS NAME IS QUIETLY REMOVED FROM SITE

"Toilet paper up 10% — profits increased $100 million," an April ad declares. The corporate PAC of the company Procter and Gamble, the company behind Charmin, has donated $15,500 to Casey’s campaign since 2017, according to FEC data.

VULNERABLE DEM WHO DEMANDED 'FAIR' TRUMP SENATE TRIAL CHANGES TUNE ON MAYORKAS IMPEACHMENT

Casey has also benefited from massive cereal producer Kellogg’s despite slamming cereal companies for providing the "same packaging, smaller box, familiar logo, fewer servings amid the inflation woes under the Biden administration."

A review of FEC data shows PACs associated with Kellogg’s donated a combined $16,000 to Casey’s campaign since 2017. 

Kellogg's PAC, the Kellogg Company Better Government Committee, no longer exists after Kellogg's split into two companies last year. The PAC that WK Kellogg Co. manages has since donated $1,000 to Bob Casey for Senate. 

"CEOs sneak around, downsize favorite brands, charging more for less. Same packaging, smaller box, familiar logo, fewer servings," Casey said in the April ad. 

DEM SEN. BOB CASEY SLAMMED BY GOP FOR SHIFTING IMMIGRATION STANCES: 'COMPLICIT IN THE CRISIS'

Fox News Digital reached out to the Casey campaign, asking if he plans to return the donations in light of railing against the big companies and their CEOs. 

"Bob Casey is an independent fighter who will always stand up for working people against corporate greed and companies ripping off Pennsylvanians," Maddy McDaniels, spokesperson for Bob Casey for Senate, told Fox News Digital. 

The two ads did not cite the companies by name, but Casey has previously called out the corporations in various Senate reports published by his office.

"One of the sneakiest examples of shrinkflation is a change made to Dawn Ultra & Dawn Ultra Platinum dish soap. Proctor & Gamble [sic], the makers of Dawn, reduced the formerly 7-ounce dish soap to 6.5 ounces but left the bottle the same physical size with the same price. They simply filled the bottle with slightly less liquid and hoped families would not notice. The following year, P&G reported it did not see a need to offer sales or price cuts and celebrated returning '$3.8 billion of cash to shareowners via approximately $2.3 billion of dividend payments and $1.5 billion of common stock repurchases," Casey wrote in his shrinkflation report published in 2023. 

"Frosted Flakes: Kellogg raised prices on its products over 14 percent between Q2 2022 and Q2 2023," Casey's Greedflation from November detailed.  

Inflation has fallen considerably since its peak in 2022 at 9.1%, the highest rate since 1981, and now sits at more than 3%, which is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. The economy and inflation under the Biden administration has since become a top voting issue heading into the 2024 election

BIDEN SAYS INFLATION IS TOP DOMESTIC PRIORITY, BUT FED ADMITS LACK OF PROGRESS

"Even as inflation has slowed, families are still paying higher prices, thanks to corporate greed, or greedflation. Under the guise of inflation, corporations are raising prices on American families and raking in record profits to boot. From July 2020 through July 2022, inflation rose by 14 percent while corporate profits rose by more than 74 percent — nearly five times the rate of inflation," Casey adds on his official Senate page. 

Casey has served in the Senate since 2007 and is anticipated to have one of the most closely watched races this year as he faces off against Republican challenger Dave McCormick. 

INFLATION MAKES ESSENTIALS UNAFFORDABLE: YOUNGER GENERATIONS ARE 'PAYING THEIR FAIR SHARE' IN BIDEN'S ECONOMY

"It’ll be a close, tough race," Casey told NBC earlier this year. "But, look, there’s a lot on the line every time. Every time I’ve run for public office in Pennsylvania, I’ve had to earn the vote and the trust of the people. And I got to do that again."

McCormick’s campaign released an ad this week detailing the Bronze star recipient’s time at West Point.  

"I went to West Point with Dave McCormick, and Dave stood out as a leader there in every way," former U.S. Army Captain Cliff Harris said in the video. "In the classroom. And as an athlete. Dave McCormick embodies the values of duty, honor and country that are instilled in us at West Point." 

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Various polls from the last month show Casey ahead of McCormick, though the Republican challenger has recently closed in on the Democrat as the election season further intensifies.