December deadlines: Things are a little different around Capitol Hill before the Christmas cutoff

Every December seemingly has a deadline on Capitol Hill.

To impeach the President.

To fund the government.

To avoid the fiscal cliff.

To raise the debt ceiling.

To approve a payroll tax cut.

To pass tax reform.

To allow drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

To pass Obamacare.

To undo Obamacare.

But things are a little different around Capitol Hill this December.

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There’s no single, sweeping issue that is consuming Congress. Sure, there are lots of things to do. In fact, big things — which we’ll outline shortly. But the feeling this Christmas at the Capitol is different. No government shutdown is looming (talk to us about that in January and February). And while Congress has faced concrete deadlines before, there is no absolute, drop-dead date to complete anything.

Except there is a cutoff point. It’s the same as every other year: December 25th.

Lawmakers have three weeks to handle lots of things.

But it’s unclear if they’ll crank through them. And that’s why there’s the potential for Congress to linger in Washington and maybe — just maybe — still slam into the December 25th deadline.

Let’s start with impeachment.

No, the House is not going to impeach President Biden before Christmas. You might remember that December is kind of "impeachment month" on Capitol Hill. The House impeached President Clinton on Dec. 19, 1998, for obstructing justice and lying after his affair with Monica Lewinsky. The House impeached former President Trump — the first time — on Dec. 18, 2019, for abusing his power and obstructing justice as it pertained to Ukraine.

Notice a pattern?

While those votes were actual resolutions to impeach the President, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is just pushing a plan to formalize an impeachment inquiry. FOX is told the goal is to pass the impeachment probe resolution next week.

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House Republicans have nibbled around the edges of impeachment for months. But the House never adopted a measure officially authorizing impeachment.

"Now we're being stonewalled by the White House because they're preventing at least two to three DOJ witnesses from coming forward," said Johnson on FOX. "So a formal impeachment inquiry vote on the floor will allow us to take it to the next necessary step. And I think it's something we have to do at this juncture."

Plus, Johnson needs to notch a political and legislative win.

Johnson hasn’t had much to crow about since he first clasped the Speaker’s gavel in October. He quickly passed a bill to boost Israel in its fight against Hamas. But since then, Johnson has presided over a House majority that encountered multiple stumbles in efforts to pass their own spending bills. The highlight of Johnson’s short tenure may have been the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y. — which Johnson and other GOP leaders opposed.

But impeachment could boost the GOP — especially as Congress stares at the possibility of dual government shutdowns over the winter.

"If it goes to the floor, we're going to pass it. There's no question," said House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., about an impeachment inquiry vote.

It’s about the math.

Republicans can only lose three votes on their side and prevail and still open an impeachment investigation. For months, moderates resisted an impeachment vote. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., initiated an impeachment inquiry — without an official vote — because he never had the votes. Moreover, McCarthy needed to do something to move the needle on his side of the aisle when GOP spending bills began stalling on the floor and conservatives grew restless over his debt ceiling pact with President Biden.

But votes to potentially launch an impeachment inquiry began to fall into place over the past few weeks. House Republicans believe things changed over Thanksgiving — after lawmakers were marooned in Washington for nearly 11 consecutive weeks since late summer.

"They met people in Walmart and people on Main Street, and they're like, ‘What in the world did the Bidens do to receive millions and millions of dollars from our enemies around the world? And did they not pay taxes on it?’ So they heard from their constituents," said House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky.

Democrats accuse Republicans of a political diversion ahead of an election year.

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"This is all part of a phony effort by extreme MAGA Republicans to distract the American people because they have no track record of accomplishment," said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.

But impeachment isn’t what is most vexing to many on Capitol Hill this December.

Major issues loom over passing the annual defense policy bill. But it faces a dispute over declassifying some information related to Unidentified Aeriel Phenomena (UAPs). Renewing the foreign surveillance counter-terrorism program known as "FISA." And then there is the big one: President Biden’s international aid package for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. The status of that bill is much harder to read because there’s no hard deadline — except Christmas. And the end of the year. And then when the focus pivots in January to averting a government shutdown.

To some, it would be hard to see Congress leaving town before the holiday without addressing Israel and Ukraine. Republicans insist that Democrats attach a robust border security plan to the package. However, Republicans aren’t even in agreement on what those border provisions might look like. But, if the plan blows up, Republicans hope to blame Democrats who are getting hammered politically for not tackling the border.

White House Budget Director Shalanda Young sent an urgent letter to lawmakers Monday, saying Congress was about to "kneecap" Ukraine by not passing the aid.

Talks over the border went sideways in recent days, perhaps scuttling the supplemental spending plan.

And if Congress doesn’t pass the international aid bill?

"You can bet Vladimir Putin is watching. Hamas is watching. Iran, President Xi, North Korea, all of our adversaries. They’re watching closely," said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. "If Congress fails to defend democracy in its hour of need because of border policies inspired by Donald Trump or Stephen Miller, the judgment of history will be harsh indeed."

But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., lashed his colleagues across the aisle.

"Democrats appear to be hell-bent on exhausting every half-baked idea before they get serious about actually fixing our border," said McConnell. "Senate Republicans know that national security begins with border security. And we’ve made it crystal clear that in order to pass the Senate, any measure we take up in the coming days must include serious policy changes designed to get the Biden Administration’s border crisis under control."

So it’s unclear if the fight over the border and the international aid package could keep Congress here close to Christmas this year — entering the special legislative pantheon of five-alarm fires which have screwed up other holiday seasons on Capitol Hill.

But things are a little different around the Capitol this December.

And even if Congress abandons Washington without finishing everything, no one will be celebrating.

Crystal clear: Forecast for possible government shutdown is murky

I have a parliamentary crystal ball for how September may go on Capitol Hill.

That doesn’t mean I have many answers.

Like most crystal balls, they are limited in their accuracy. They won’t give you the full story. But they will absolutely nail some aspects.

No. The crystal ball cannot definitively predict whether the government will shut down Oct. 1, the start of the federal fiscal year. In fact, information from the crystal ball surrounding that very question is especially cloudy.

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Impeachment of President Biden? Or Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas? Or Attorney General Merrick Garland?

Just as hazy.

But the crystal ball does forecast the following:

The Senate will advance a few individual appropriations bills in the coming weeks. And House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., will try to advance a fig leaf, interim spending package that appeases the right. The House Freedom Caucus and other conservative members will demand various provisions that either trim spending, address the border or wrestle with potential impeachment. 

McCarthy’s bill won’t actually be what Congress settles on to fund the government. In fact, one can’t even technically call it a "Continuing Resolution" or "CR" if it cuts funding or addresses ancillary issues important to Republicans. By its nature, a CR sustains funding at present levels so the government doesn’t shutter. But McCarthy will have made his point.

However, what’s murky in the crystal ball is whether McCarthy and House Republicans can later digest a CR from the Senate that doesn’t address any of their priorities just to keep the government funded.

However, the crystal ball is crystal clear about one thing: If the House doesn’t eventually swallow a bipartisan CR from the Senate, there will be a government shutdown.

That’s as definitive as anything we’ve drawn from the crystal ball.

So, here are some of the machinations surrounding a potential government shutdown and possible funding measures over the next four weeks.

The Senate is back from its summer recess a full week ahead of the House. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., notes that the Senate cleared 12 appropriations bills in committee before the recess. So, he’ll deposit three of those on the floor soon.

"All 12 appropriations … have been reported out of the committee with bipartisan support. Some of them, many of them, were with unanimous, bipartisan support," said Schumer. "Now, that doesn’t mean everyone agreed on everything. It sometimes means something more important. It means that disagreements haven’t paralyzed the process."

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Schumer scored backup from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

"Congress needs to address our nation’s most pressing needs with timely appropriations. And we need to keep the lights on come Oct. 1," McConnell said.

Before the recess, the full House OK'd only one of its 12 spending measures. So, this is a chance for the Senate to get ahead of the House and inoculate it from criticism it hasn’t passed any appropriations bills.

But Schumer understands the stark reality. No matter what, the solution to averting a government shutdown is for the House and Senate to pass some sort of interim spending bill that keeps the federal lights on for a few weeks, if not a couple months. And the only tangible recipe to make that work? A Band-Aid bill can only pass with a coalition of Democrats and Republicans.

McCarthy doesn’t need a crystal ball to understand that a bipartisan, temporary bill is the route too. He’s indicated to House Republicans a stopgap bill is necessary right away, asserting that the GOP will fight for deep spending cuts with the "real" bills later.

But McCarthy hasn’t addressed something else that is clear in the crystal ball. It remains unsaid because it’s politically radioactive: A clean CR likely requires a substantial chunk of Democratic votes in the House. In fact, it may score far more Democratic votes than GOP votes.

"We all agreed a CR is the best way to go," Schumer said of a meeting he had with McCarthy about government funding. "He’s going to have a rough time implementing it."

That’s why a clean CR with substantial Democratic support is politically the most malignant bill to McCarthy.

House conservatives will bray if McCarthy defaults to that position – even if he goes through the proper motions to appeal to the right on impeachment, spending cuts or border policy. However, McCarthy likely needs to embrace some of these appeals by the right if he wants to stay in good graces with the House Freedom Caucus.

But the second McCarthy dials back from those positions …

If he dials back from those positions …

That’s why the crystal ball can’t predict if there might be a government shutdown.

This boils down to the math.

The current breakdown in the House features 222 Republicans to 212 Democrats with one vacancy. In other words, Republicans can only lose four votes from their side and still pass a bill without Democratic assistance. More Democrats voted for the debt ceiling pact with President Biden in the spring than Republicans. And conservatives haven’t let McCarthy forget it.

But it gets worse for the GOP.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., could miss some time for his cancer treatments. And Rep. Chris Stewart, R-Utah., resigns effective Sept. 15. So, that could mean Republicans are effectively operating with only 220 members. That drops the GOP margin to three votes.

The biggest roadblock for putting any piece of legislation on the House floor is what’s known as the "rule." The House Rules Committee is the gateway for most bills to get to the floor. The Rules Committee and the entire House must first adopt a "rule" before considering legislation. The rule determines the parameters for debate on a given bill. But if the Rules Committee or entire House fails to approve a rule, the bill can’t come up for debate.

This could be nettlesome for McCarthy with Ralph Norman, R-S.C., Chip Roy, R-Texas, and Thomas Massie, R-Ky., serving on the Rules Committee.

That said, there is a way to skate around the Rules Committee on a CR that simply renews all old funding on a temporary basis.

The House can bypass the Rules Committee by putting a "privileged" Continuing Resolution on the floor after Sept. 15. "Privileged" means the resolution is written in a manner that whisks it to the front of the legislative line. 

Granted, such a "privileged" CR is subject to multiple points of order on the floor. That could be messy enough. But such an option to skip a step does exist in the House quiver.

Will that scenario unfold?

The crystal ball has not even considered the "privileged" CR option because it is obscure.

So, what’s going to happen? I have no idea. And frankly, neither does the crystal ball.

This poses a salient question: If the crystal ball can’t foretell what’s going to happen in Congress, what good is it?

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I asked the crystal ball about its future in congressional soothsaying.

The response? Foggy at best.

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to McConnell’s health and a potential government shutdown

The Senate meets at 3 pm et today for the first time since late July. 

The biggest buzz around the Senate centers on the health of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). 

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Some senators want McConnell to be more transparent about his health issues as there are whispers in the Senate corridors about his fitness to serve. 

McConnell froze up last week during a speaking engagement in northern Kentucky. He had a similar episode in late July. And there was also an issue in the spring. The latter appeared to be a problem with the Leader’s hearing aids. 

Questions about McConnell have swirled since he misses several weeks after a fall where he suffered a concussion. 

Republicans also find themselves in a bind: defending McConnell but wanting to raise questions about the health and age of President Biden

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It is unclear if McConnell will present customary opening remarks in the 3 pm et hour or offer any insight into his health. 

Many Republicans are rallying around McConnell. However, it would only take five GOP members to demand a special meeting to consider McConnell’s leadership and potentially hold a secret ballot. 

However, that scenario does not appear to be in the cards yet. And McConnell would likely prevail in any vote of no confidence. 

Other issues before the Senate: government funding. 

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The government runs out of money on October 1. The House and Senate are nowhere near agreement on spending measure. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) plans to move a series of spending measures over the next three weeks. But a temporary bill renewing all old funding appears to be the only way out of this cul-de-sac. 

The House doesn’t return until next Tuesday. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is floating a one-month interim spending package. But conservatives are balking at that since it simply renews the old funding and does not cut. McCarthy could pass a bill to avert a shutdown. But he may need to do it with mostly-Democratic votes. 

Back in the Senate, there is no movement in the impasse over the promotion of the nation’s top military leaders. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) refuses to budge from allowing the Senate to fast-track the mostly non-controverial promotions. Tuberville is protesting the Pentagon’s abortion policy. It would take nearly a month of the Senate working around the clock and considering nothing else to clear all the military promotions. 

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