Hunter Biden to plead guilty in deal with feds

Editor's note: This file has been updated to clarify Hunter Biden will enter a pretrial diversion program as part of a deal with federal prosecutors who are expected to drop a gun charge against him.

Hunter Biden, President Biden's son, will plead guilty to tax crimes in a plea deal with prosecutors, and he reached a diversion agreement relating to unlawful possession of a weapon, according to court papers filed Tuesday.

The plea deal, which must be accepted by a judge, likely would keep Hunter Biden out of jail.

Biden, 53, has been under investigation for tax matters since 2018. He reportedly paid off his tax liability in 2020, with court documents detailing he initially failed to make tax payments of more than $100,000 in both 2017 and 2018 on income exceeding $1.5 million.

Biden was charged with two counts of willful failure to pay income tax. The third charge stems from possession of a firearm in 2018, a weapon he was in possession of while using crack cocaine. Biden denied drug use when applying to secure the gun.


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In a separate agreement on the gun charge, the president's son will be entered into a pretrial diversion program, meaning those charges are likely to be removed from his record if he complies with the terms of the program. 

“With the announcement of two agreements between my client, Hunter Biden, and the United States Attorney's Office for the District of Delaware, it is my understanding that the five-year investigation into Hunter is resolved,” Biden attorney Christopher Clark said in a statement.

“Hunter will take responsibility for two instances of misdemeanor failure to file tax payments when due pursuant to a plea agreement.  A firearm charge, which will be subject to a pretrial diversion agreement and will not be the subject of the plea agreement, will also be filed by the Government,” he added. 

A statement from David Weiss, the U.S. Attorney for Delaware, counters Clark’s claim the issue is resolved.

“The investigation is ongoing,” Weiss’s office said in a release.

According to The Washington Post, Biden is expected to agree to two years of probation in connection with the plea deal.

“I know Hunter believes it is important to take responsibility for these mistakes he made during a period of turmoil and addiction in his life.  He looks forward to continuing his recovery and moving forward,” Clark said.

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President Biden has repeatedly defended his son from allegations of wrongdoing. The White House on Tuesday stressed support for Hunter Biden following the announcement of the plea deal.

“The President and First Lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life. We will have no further comment," spokesperson Ian Sams said in a statement.

In an interview last October, the president said his son acknowledged in a book that he noted he was not using drugs on a gun application at a time when he was battling addiction.

The White House has sought to keep its distance from Hunter Biden’s ongoing legal case to avoid any implication the president was pressuring the Justice Department, and officials have repeatedly referred questions about the case to Hunter Biden’s lawyer. Upon taking office, the Biden administration allowed U.S. Attorney David Weiss, a holdover from the Trump administration, to continue to oversee the case.

FILE - President Joe Biden attends his granddaughter Maisy Biden's commencement ceremony with first lady Jill Biden and children Hunter Biden and Ashley Biden at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Monday, May 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

President Joe Biden attends his granddaughter Maisy Biden's commencement ceremony with first lady Jill Biden and children Hunter Biden and Ashley Biden at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Monday, May 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

The plea deal is likely to fuel Republican efforts to keep the business dealings of the president’s family in the spotlight.

Hunter Biden’s involvement in foreign business dealings has been a source of focus for Republicans for years. Former President Trump’s suggestion in 2019 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky investigate Hunter and Joe Biden, then his political opponent, led to his first impeachment.

Reports that broke just before the 2020 election detailing the contents of a hard drive Hunter Biden purportedly owned, which included more details about the business dealings in addition to more salacious content, further fueled GOP interest in his business dealings and attempts to connect the now-president to them.

House Republicans have launched an investigation into the foreign business dealings of Hunter Biden, other family members of President Biden and their associates, raising alarm about foreign funds that flowed to the first family.

Republicans have not produced evidence, though, that directly links President Biden to any of Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings. The president has denied knowledge of those business dealings.

In the past few weeks, House Republicans have highlighted an unverified tip to the FBI that then-Vice President Biden accepted a bribe from a foreign national, but they have not substantiated those claims.

In a statement, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) — who is heading up the Biden family business dealings probe — said the charges “reveal a two-tiered system of justice.”

“Hunter Biden is getting away with a slap on the wrist when growing evidence uncovered by the House Oversight Committee reveals the Bidens engaged in a pattern of corruption, influence peddling, and possibly bribery,” Comer said. “We will not rest until the full extent of President Biden’s involvement in the family’s schemes are revealed.”

Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.)

Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) questions Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, during a House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic oversight hearing of the CDC over their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday, June 13, 2023.

Comer’s bribery allegations stem from a tip to the FBI the agency was unable to corroborate.

“This development reflects the Justice Department’s continued institutional independence in following the evidence of actual crimes and enforcing the rule of law even in the face of constant criticism and heckling by my GOP colleagues who think that the system of justice should only follow their partisan wishes,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Comer’s Democratic counterpart on the committee, said in a statement. 

“Oversight Committee Republicans have advanced debunked conspiracy theories about President Biden and are now, again, wailing about the work of a Trump appointed U.S. Attorney.”

Hunter Biden’s previous drug addiction also became a GOP attack line.

In 2020, former President Trump pounced on the issue, at one point during a presidential debate mentioning that Joe Biden's son was discharged from the military for cocaine use.

Then-candidate Biden defended his son.

“My son, like a lot of people ... had a drug problem,” he said. “He’s overtaken it. He’s fixed it. He’s worked on it. And I’m proud of him. I'm proud of my son.”

FILE - Former President Donald Trump speaks at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, N.J., Tuesday, June 13, 2023, after pleading not guilty in a Miami courtroom earlier in the day to dozens of felony counts that he hoarded classified documents and refused government demands to give them back. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Former President Donald Trump speaks at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, N.J., Tuesday, June 13, 2023, after pleading not guilty in a Miami courtroom earlier in the day to dozens of felony counts that he hoarded classified documents and refused government demands to give them back. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Trump weighed in on Hunter Biden’s case after news of the plea agreement broke, criticizing the charges as being low-level.

“Wow! The corrupt Biden DOJ just cleared up hundreds of years of criminal liability by giving Hunter Biden a mere ‘traffic ticket.’ Our system is BROKEN!” the former president wrote on Truth Social.

Trump was arraigned last week on 37 counts following a Department of Justice indictment alleging he violated the Espionage Act and obstructed justice in taking classified records from his presidency and refusing to return them. He is also facing charges for concealing documents and misleading investigators.

Updated at 12:40 p.m.

Alex Gangitano contributed.

Trump demands recusal of judge overseeing hush money criminal case

Former President Trump is calling for the New York judge overseeing his hush money criminal case to recuse himself, arguing the judge cannot be impartial.

Trump’s lawyers noted in a new filing apparent political donations Judge Juan Merchan made to then-presidential candidate Joe Biden and liberal-leaning groups. They also referenced the judge’s participation in a previous case related to Trump and reports that Merchan’s daughter works at a progressive digital agency.

“This case before this Court is historic and it is important that the People of the State of New York and this nation have confidence that the jurist who presides over it is impartial,” Trump’s lawyers wrote. “Most respectfully, the foregoing facts compel the conclusion that Your Honor is not and thus should recuse.”

Trump faces 34 counts of falsifying business records in connection with reimbursements made to his then-fixer, Michael Cohen, for making a $130,000 hush payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.

Trump has pleaded not guilty, while he also remains under multiple other criminal investigations.

A person named Juan Merchan who works for the New York court system donated $35 in July 2020 to political causes, according to Federal Election Commission records. The donations comprise a $15 donation to Biden’s presidential campaign, $10 to the Progressive Turnout Project and $10 to a group called “Stop Republicans.”

Trump’s lawyers demanded Merchan explain the contributions.

“The fact that Your Honor previously donated money to President Trump’s opponent in 2020 might suggest to the reasonable observer that the Court would rather another candidate be elected in 2024 over President Trump,” the attorneys wrote.

The Manhattan district attorney’s office declined to comment and indicated it will respond in court papers.

Trump’s legal team further took aim at media reports that Merchan’s daughter is the chief operating officer at a progressive digital agency, Authentic Strategies, which lists Biden’s campaign and other Democratic candidates as clients.

“Your Honor’s familial relationship with the President and COO of Authentic is particularly problematic given the role this very case may play in political campaigns and advertising in the 2024 presidential election,” Trump’s team wrote. 

“It is likely that many of President Trump’s opponents, both political candidates and organizations, will attempt to use this case — and any rulings by the Court — to attack him,” they continued. “Indeed, virtually every client listed on Authentic’s website has been critical in the past of President Trump and fundraised on these criticisms.”

The Hill has reached out to Authentic Strategies for comment.

Trump’s filing further notes Merchan’s role overseeing the criminal prosecution of Allen Weisselberg, the Trump Organization’s former chief financial officer. Weisselberg as part of a plea deal was sentenced to five months in jail for his participation in a tax-fraud scheme, and Trump’s lawyers are accusing Merchan of overstepping by attempting to induce Weisselberg to cooperate against Trump. 

New York trial judges are not categorically barred from facilitating plea agreements, but they must abide by certain limits. 

Susan Necheles, one of Trump’s attorneys who signed the recusal motion, represented the Trump Organization as the Manhattan district attorney’s office prosecuted the scheme. When the Trump Organization had its trial for tax fraud, Necheles squarely pinned the blame on Weisselberg.

“Your Honor’s prior conduct in attempting to induce cooperation against President Trump and his interests creates a perception that Your Honor is biased against President Trump and warrants recusal in this case,” Necheles and Todd Blanche, another Trump attorney, wrote in court filings on Friday.

“Surely, the Court would not have pushed Mr. Weisselberg to cooperate against President Trump and his interests unless it thought he was someone who was worthy of prosecution,” they continued. “That mindset reveals Your Honor as someone who has prejudged the defendant’s guilt and is biased against his interests.”

Trump's lawyers in recent weeks have separately attempted to move the former president's case to federal court, a move prosecutors are opposing. Merchan retains oversight of the case until the federal court rules on that attempt.

—Updated at 4:14 p.m.

Clarence Thomas’s problems multiply at Supreme Court

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is facing a fresh round of scrutiny after the third blockbuster report in less than a month links him financially to GOP megadonor Harlan Crow.

ProPublica reported Thursday that Crow, a Dallas-based real estate developer, paid thousands of dollars in tuition to a private boarding school for Thomas’s great-nephew, whom Thomas has said he raised “as a son.”

Federal ethics laws require the justices to report gifts given to a “dependent child,” but that term is defined to only include the justices’ children or stepchildren. Thomas’s allies have insisted the payment doesn’t violate the disclosure law since it was for Thomas’s sister’s grandson.

But the revelation has only added to the increasing pressure from Democrats for the justices to adopt a binding code of ethics.

“Today’s report continues a steady stream of revelations calling Justices’ ethics standards and practices into question. I hope that the Chief Justice understands that something must be done—the reputation and credibility of the Court is at stake,” Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said in a statement.

When asked during a SiriusXM interview about impeaching Thomas, however, Durbin said “no.” He noted that only one justice, Samuel Chase, had been impeached previously, and Chase was acquitted in the Senate in 1805.

“I don't think an impeachment is in the works, particularly with the House in a political situation that it’s in today,” Durbin said on “The Briefing with Steve Scully.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a Judiciary Committee member, argued the matter should be referred to the Department of Justice.

“There’s a potential criminal violation in the misreporting or failure to report certain benefits, gifts and financial transactions. There’s just a drip, drip, drip of additional information that is gravely undermining the Court, but also creating the need for a full factual investigation,” Blumenthal said.

“If [the Justice Department] fails to do so, Congress definitely has a role,” he added.

Thomas did not return a request for comment through a court spokesperson.

Later on Thursday, The Washington Post reported that Leonard Leo, a conservative judicial activist who played a key role in the Supreme Court’s rightward shift, directed tens of thousands of dollars be paid to Thomas’s wife, Ginni, roughly a decade ago.

Leo requested that she not be named in the paperwork, according to the Post. Ginni Thomas, a conservative activist herself, has long insisted that she doesn't talk about the court’s business with her husband.

Judiciary Committee Democrats have been hamstrung on taking action regarding the court, including on a potential subpoena for Chief Justice John Roberts. He declined an invitation from Durbin to appear at a Tuesday hearing on Supreme Court ethics, noting that it is “exceedingly rare” for a chief justice to give testimony. 

That could change if Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who has been absent for months due to shingles, returns and once again gives Democrats an 11-10 majority on the panel — though even then subpoenaing the chief justice of the Supreme Court would be an extraordinary step.

Thursday’s ProPublica report was the latest financial transaction involving Thomas and Crow to come to light. The investigative outlet last month reported Thomas had accepted luxury trips from Crow, including flying on his private jet, without disclosing the travels. 

ProPublica also reported Crow had purchased real estate from Thomas’s mother that Thomas had an interest in.

“The definition of insanity is seeing the same Supreme Court justice violate ethics rules over and over again and expecting him to actually hold himself accountable,” Sarah Lipton-Lubet, president of Take Back the Court Action Fund, said in a statement. “How many more examples of Thomas flouting disclosure rules do our elected leaders need to see before they intervene? Thomas needs to answer for his misconduct. It’s time to subpoena him.”

Republicans, on the other hand, indicated little willingness to wade into the waters related to the justice who has served on the court for 32 years. They say this is an issue for the Supreme Court to deal with and not something that requires congressional oversight. Interfering, they argue, would go against the separation of powers.

“The Supreme Court … writes its own rules and if there is any policing of those rules to be done, I think it ought to be done by them,” Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican, told reporters. “I assume the members of the Court, who I have a high level of confidence in, will make the right decisions for the justices on the Court and for the people who work at the Supreme Court in the same way as we make the rules for all members of Congress.”

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who recently indicated that he was dismayed by reports of the ethical issues for Thomas, said the Court needs to make ethics changes.

“These revelations with regards to a number of justices, both those appointed by Republicans and by Democrats, suggest that the Court itself needs to evaluate what their disclosure rules are and ethics rules are and methods for enforcing those,” Romney said. “I presume that the chief justice will undertake that.”

Republicans have further portrayed the Thomas scrutiny as a double standard, taking aim at the ethics of the high court’s liberal justices.

They note that liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg accepted an award in 2010 from the Woman's National Democratic Club. 

They have also pointed to liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor not recusing herself when the court considered taking up two cases involving book publisher Penguin Random House, despite disclosing payments from the conglomerate for her books. Conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch, who also received payments from the publisher for his book, similarly did not recuse.

Cori Bush joins fellow Squad members in calling for Clarence Thomas impeachment

Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) is calling for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to be impeached, joining other members of the progressive “Squad” who have called for the conservative justice to be reprimanded following a bombshell report on his relationship with a Republican donor.

In a statement on Tuesday, Bush said Thomas “holds a complete disregard for law and ethics that is incompatible with the trust and confidence placed in federal judges.”

“For these reasons, and because the federal judiciary has failed to hold Justice Thomas accountable, I am calling for impeachment proceedings to begin regarding Justice Thomas’s apparent violations of federal law,” she said.

ProPublica reported earlier this month that Thomas, who has served on the bench since 1991, went on luxury vacations with Republican donor and real estate developer Harlan Crow. The donor paid for the trips, which have been happening for more than two decades, according to ProPublica.

Supreme Court justices are required by federal law to file annual financial disclosures that include gifts, unless they fall under certain exemptions. In a statement following the report, Thomas said that he “was advised that this sort of personal hospitality from close personal friends, who did not have business before the Court, was not reportable.”

Days later, ProPublica reported that Thomas did not disclose a 2014 real estate deal he did with Crow. The donor reportedly purchased a series of properties in Savannah, Ga., from Thomas, his mother and his late brother’s family for $133,363. On Monday, CNN reported that Thomas plans to amend his financial disclosure forms to disclose the real estate deal.

And The Washington Post reported that Thomas has reported that his family received rental income from a real estate firm launched by his wife and her family that has not existed since 2006.

The revelations regarding Thomas have angered judicial watchdog groups and congressional Democrats, leading some to call for the justice’s impeachment, including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and now Bush.

Bush in her statement on Tuesday said Thomas “has made a mockery of his ethical obligations and disgraced himself and the entire judiciary,” and said recent discoveries “are just the latest in a pattern of lawless and shocking behavior that has characterized Justice Thomas’s career.” 

Ocasio-Cortez, who was among the first House Democrats to call for Thomas’s impeachment amid the recent revelations, acknowledged in an interview with CNN that it is “very difficult” to see a path where Thomas is impeached by a House controlled by Republicans.

But Bush, nonetheless, wants the chamber to plow forward with impeachment. And if that does not work, she called on the Judicial Conference of the United States to refer Thomas to the attorney general.

“History will judge how Congress responded during this crisis in our federal judiciary. House Republicans must move forward with impeachment proceedings,” she said. “But if they continue choosing not to act, the Judicial Conference of the United States must immediately exercise its authority and refer Justice Thomas to the Attorney General for further action.”

In addition to impeachment, Bush on Tuesday called on Congress to approve Supreme Court ethics reform, to expand the court, institute term limits “and take other actions to rein in this unaccountable, anti-democratic, and dangerous institution.”

“Holding judges accountable for their behavior is a matter of life-or-death for our communities. They wield enormous power, and the current hands-off approach to the judiciary has only emboldened lawless, corrupt, far-right judges to strip away our rights and make our lives worse off,” she added.

McConnell defends Supreme Court after Clarence Thomas revelations

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) on Tuesday defended the Supreme Court from Democrats’ calls to pass judicial ethics legislation or even conduct an impeachment inquiry after reports that Justice Clarence Thomas received gifts and hospitality from a billionaire.  

“The Supreme Court and the court system is a whole separate part of our Constitution, and the Democrats, it seems to me, spend a lot of time criticizing individual members of the court and going after the court as an institution,” McConnell told reporters at his first leadership press conference in the Capitol since suffering a concussion on March 8.  

McConnell accused Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) of threatening conservative Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh at an abortion rights rally outside the Supreme Court in 2020, when the Democratic leader warned they “won’t know what hit” them if they overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights case.  

“My counterpart went over in front of the Supreme Court and called out two of the Supreme Court justices by name and actually threatened them with some kind of reprisal — I don’t know what kind — if they ruled the wrong way in a case he cared about,” he said.  

McConnell also asserted that Attorney General Merrick Garland “seemed to be largely unconcerned with security issues around the homes of Supreme Court members” after a draft opinion of the court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe, leaked in May.  

The GOP leader said he has “total confidence” in Chief Justice John Roberts to handle any ethical issues facing the court.  

“I have total confidence in the chief justice of the United States to deal with these court internal issues,” he said.  

His comments came in reaction to a recent letter Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee sent to Roberts raising concerns about reporting by ProPublica that Thomas accepted luxury trips regularly from Texas billionaire Harlan Crow without disclosing the gifts.

ProPublica also reported that one of Crow’s companies bought a property in which Thomas owned a one-third share, which Thomas also failed to disclose.  

Senate Democrats informed Roberts that they will hold a hearing on “the need to restore confidence in the Supreme Court’s ethical standards” and urged the chief justice to investigate the matter.  

“And if the court does not resolve these issues on its own, the committee will consider legislation to resolve it,” they wrote. 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) in a CNN interview over the weekend suggested the House should conduct an impeachment inquiry into Thomas, telling CNN’s Dana Bash it is “the House’s responsibility to pursue that investigation in the form of impeachment.”  

Democrats race to Bragg’s defense: Congress ‘should stay the hell out of it’

House Democrats are racing to the defense of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) amid his criminal probe of former President Trump, saying the Republicans seeking to halt Bragg’s hush money investigation are encroaching on matters of independent law enforcement and should simply butt out.

“Let's wait to see if there are going to be charges. Let's see what the charges are. Let's see what the evidence is,” said Rep. Ted Lieu (Calif.), vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. “And we should let law enforcement do their jobs without political interference."

Trump stirred a hornet’s nest over the weekend when he predicted he would be indicted this week for his role in a 2016 payment to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels. The prediction proved false — the grand jury in the case is expected to meet again next week — but the very idea drew howls from Trump’s GOP allies on Capitol Hill, where the chairmen of three powerful House committees demanded that Bragg testify before Congress.

“Your actions will erode confidence in the evenhanded application of justice and unalterably interfere in the course of the 2024 presidential election,” Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), James Comer (R-Ky.) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) wrote to Bragg on Monday. Jordan chairs the Judiciary Committee; Comer leads the Oversight panel, and Steil heads the Administration Committee.

Bragg responded to the Republicans on Thursday, writing that Trump had created a “false expectation” in predicting his arrest this week. He declined the GOP entreaties to provide information, and Democrats are backing him, accusing Republicans of strong-arming judiciary officials and defending Trump over the rule of law.

"I was astonished, actually, when I saw the letter from the three committee chairs to Mr. Bragg, essentially calling on him to violate grand jury secrecy laws in New York, which of course is a felony,” Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), a member of the Judiciary Committee, told reporters on Thursday. “He rightly declined to do that.” 

Yet Republicans are not the only figures criticizing Bragg this week. Some liberals are voicing concerns that the Manhattan district attorney is moving too quickly in the hush money case, fearing his indictment might arrive before federal and state prosecutors investigating several other episodes — including Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol and his effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election — bring potentially more serious charges. 

Those liberal voices say an early indictment in Manhattan could benefit Trump politically, by rallying support from Republican voters who might be shifting away from the former president, but remain sympathetic to his warnings of a national "deep state" conspiracy targeting conservatives by all levels of government. They’re suggesting Bragg should back off to let the other investigations proceed first. 

“A charge like this — a porn star payoff seven years ago, somehow tied to the election but not really — it doesn’t seem like the right way to go,” Van Jones, a liberal commentator for CNN, said this week. “History is not going to judge Donald Trump based on Stormy Daniels. They’re going to judge him based on the election, going to judge him based on the coup attempt.”

Democrats on Capitol Hill have other ideas, however, and many wasted no time blasting the calls for Bragg to delay. 

"I always scratch my head when I hear that — as if we have the ability to politically choreograph the sequencing of criminal justice. I mean, give me a break,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said. 

“The process and the law should just play out, and we should stay the hell out of it.” 

A vast majority of Democrats appear to agree. While many acknowledged there might be a political advantage if the Justice Department brought the first charges surrounding the Jan. 6 attack — or Georgia prosecutors were the first to indict Trump for interfering in the 2020 election — they emphasized that those are independent investigations being conducted by separate agencies, and any coordination between them would taint all of the probes.  

“From a political standpoint, it may have an impact on how this is all interpreted and received, and how certain people are able to spin it,” Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) said, referring to the possibility that Bragg may be the first prosecutor to bring charges. “But the central question is the independence of these prosecutors, and their ability to do their jobs. And they have to do their jobs regardless of the political fallout." 

Bragg’s office has sent recent signals that it may soon indict Trump in the scandal that involved Trump’s former lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen, paying Daniels $130,000 in return for her silence surrounding an alleged affair with Trump a decade earlier. Trump, who denies the affair, later reimbursed Cohen, who was subsequently convicted of a series of felonies, spent time in prison, and is now the central witness against his former boss. 

But it’s still unknown whether or when the grand jury will see fit to indict Trump, what the charges would be or how challenging the path is to a potential conviction.

Legal observers suggest an indictment of Trump would likely focus on charges of falsifying business records, a misdemeanor. Pursuit of a felony would require showing the falsification was connected to another crime, but those options all carry their own pitfalls

As the debate has evolved, some powerful Democrats — including Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who led Trump’s first impeachment — have accused the Justice Department of moving too slowly in its investigations. But others said the sheer scope of the Jan. 6 probe is enough to justify the marathon process.

“The good news is the Department of Justice doesn't care about my perception of their pace,” Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) said, pointing to the independence of the agency.

“When you are conducting an investigation that involves the former president of the United States you want to be sure that you have crossed every T and dotted every I. I think it does feel like it's been a long time, but obviously, they're gonna do what is necessary to fully investigate,” he said.

The hush money case also had a head start compared to the other probes, with the conduct first coming to light in 2018 and under investigation by the Manhattan district attorney's office since May of 2021. Some Democrats said it’s been all but inevitable that the Stormy Daniels scandal would yield the first charges. 

"It's almost predictable that the tawdry and the slimy would get him first. And I hate to say it that way, but that's what I think of him,” Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) told The Hill.

“In many ways, you'd like to see some of the graver violations of law — that I think he's violated — those come first,” he added. “But it's Donald Trump. Of course the circus comes first.”

Mychael Schnell contributed.

Spike in FBI threats unsettles the right

An uptick in threats to the FBI after it executed a search warrant at former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate is unsettling the political right, with some calling on allies of the former president to tone down their rhetoric.

Barriers have been erected outside the perimeter of the FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C., while the FBI and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reportedly issued a joint bulletin Friday warning about spikes in threats that included a bomb threat at FBI headquarters and calls for “civil war” and “armed rebellion.”

Fox News host Steve Doocy on Monday urged the former president and others to “tamp down the rhetoric against the FBI” in light of the threats, while Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that Trump’s language was “inflammatory.”

“I don’t want to put any law enforcement in the bull’s-eye of a potential threat,” McCaul said.

The bulletin issued by DHS and the FBI cited an incident in which a man armed with an AR-15-style rifle allegedly fired a nail gun into an FBI office in Cincinnati last week, according to NBC News. He was fatally shot by police after a chase and standoff, according to Ohio State Highway Patrol.

Trump on Monday in an interview with Fox News did say the temperature on the issue needed to come down, adding that he’d told aides to reach out to the Department of Justice to help.

But in the same interview, Trump directed his wrath at the Justice Department and suggested that his supporters’ anger was justified. Trump said that Americans are “not going to stand for another scam,” said that the FBI can “break into a president’s house” in a “sneak attack” and suggested that the FBI “could have planted anything they wanted” during the search.

In another post on Truth Social, his social media platform, he claimed that his passports had been taken during the search. Passports were not included on a list of items mentioned as part of a warrant released on Friday, though some of the descriptions of what was seized were broad in nature.

The president’s account on the platform his own business launched is one of his most direct ways to reach supporters online now, since he lost access to his Twitter and Facebook accounts after his posts the day of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a former FBI agent, told Margaret Brennan of “Face the Nation” on Sunday that he was concerned about the safety of FBI agents.

“Violence is never the answer to anything,” Fitzpatrick said. “We live in a democracy that's 246 years old, Margaret. That's not long, that's just a few generations, and yet we're the world's only democracy. And the only way that can come unraveled is if we have disrespect for our institutions that lead to Americans turning on Americans and the whole system becomes unraveled. And a lot of that starts with the words we're using.”

“I'm also urging all my colleagues to understand the weight of your words and support law enforcement no matter what,” he added.

Republicans have sought to differentiate between Biden appointees and rank-and-file FBI agents when raising concerns about potential politicization of the department.

“I won't smear the FBI, like the career FBI agents,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) said Friday. “But the political appointees running this stuff are very worrisome.”

FBI Director Christopher Wray was appointed by Trump in 2017.

Some Republicans have continued to use incendiary rhetoric to speak to their massive online bases. 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), using her official congressional account since her personal Twitter was suspended in January over COVID-19 misinformation, told her 1 million followers Monday that “Republicans must force” the “political persecution” to stop. Greene filed articles of impeachment against Attorney General Merrick Garland last week.

Katherine Keneally, a senior analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), said she is most concerned about the potential for extremist groups to capitalize on this moment to mobilize for future membership. 

“Specifically, any accelerationist groups that are seeing an uptick in people being upset at the FBI, a government agency, works very well for recruitment for an organization that wants to collapse the US government. So I think that's where my concern is, that these even more nefarious groups are going to use this as a catalyst moment for recruitment,” she said. 

According to a report compiled by ISD analysts, social media accounts believed to belong to the alleged Cincinnati gunman, Ricky Shiffer, suggest he was “motivated by a combination of conspiratorial beliefs related to former President Trump and the 2020 election (among others), interest in killing federal law enforcement, and the recent search warrant executed at Mar-a-Lago earlier this week.”

ISD researchers found that Shiffer was likely prepping for the attack for at least two days, based on posts from a since-removed Truth Social account believed to belong to him.

The researchers also found posts and photographs placing Shiffer at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, although it is not confirmed if he was present during the insurrection, and posts on the right-wing video site Rumble that show Shiffer encouraging users to “get in touch with the Proud Boys,” a far-right group. 

Keneally said the Ohio incident hasn’t been mentioned widely by other far-right users of online platforms, likely because it wasn’t successful. But researchers are still seeing general calls for violence targeting the FBI. 

Those monitoring the online vitriol, across mainstream platforms and fringe sites that cater to conservative users, warned that the posts from lawmakers and influencers online could incite their followers to take real-world action.

“It certainly plays a role in the radicalization process,” Keneally said.

“While they might not be directly calling for violence, the conspiratorial allegations certainly play a role in how these people are radicalized, and how they go down that path, regardless of whether it's an official stating, ‘kill the FBI,’ that's not what needs to be said to help radicalize. You just accused the FBI of ‘overstepping their boundaries,’ or like ‘taking away your constitutional rights,’ and that's what that's what people are mobilizing around,” Keneally said.