Disarray alert: House Republicans struggle with slim majority and chaos

With the exit of Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the ejection of George Santos, and the impending resignation of Rep. Bill Johnson, House Republicans' bare majority is getting delectably precarious.

Daily Kos Elections political director David Nir games it all out, concluding that Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson will likely end up having a two-vote margin of error on any given measure.

Wherever the numbers end up, Republicans' exceedingly thin majority throughout the 118th Congress has proven to be a blessing in disguise, despite Democrats' failure to keep the majority last cycle. Rarely, if ever, has America seen a more pathetic display of governance than that offered by House Republicans this Congress. The chaos of multiple leadership battles amid the daily display of internecine warfare within the GOP caucus has been both instructive for voters and good for America heading into, yet again, the most consequential election of our lifetimes.

As former Rep. Liz Cheney bluntly noted this week, “A vote for Donald Trump may mean the last election that you ever get to vote in. ... People have to recognize that a vote for Donald Trump is a vote against the Constitution.”

Liz Cheney: “A vote for Donald Trump may mean the last election that you ever get to vote in...People have to recognize that a vote for Donald Trump is a vote against the Constitution.” pic.twitter.com/ryynyn3kE7

— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) December 4, 2023

Cheney also called the prospect of Mike Johnson still being speaker in 2025 "terrifying" in an interview with MSNBC's Rachel Maddow.

One of the reasons the race for control of the House is so critical is because it's the 119th Congress that will certify the 2024 election, and House Democrats can serve as a backstop to any Republican election-stealing efforts if Democrats control the chamber.

To the benefit of the pro-democracy side, House Republicans have revealed themselves as completely incapable of leading anything. The message appears to be sinking in, based on Navigator Research polling of roughly 60 battleground districts that will decide control of the House in next year's elections, with nearly 7 in 10 respondents recently saying Republicans have prioritized "the wrong things."

Last month, pro-Trump Rep. Chip Roy of Texas summed up House Republican rule nicely.

“Explain to me one material, meaningful, significant thing the Republican majority has done," Roy said during a floor speech.

Last week, Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries happily riffed off Roy's rant in a press conference during the debate over expelling Santos from his seat.

"House Republicans have now been in the majority for a little under a year—they have nothing to show the American people that they have accomplished.," Jeffries said, mentioning Roy's assertion. "Nothing to meet the needs of the American people," he continued.

“House Republicans have now been in the majority for a little under a year. They have nothing to show the American people that they have accomplished … Don’t take my word for it. Just ask Chip Roy.” — Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries slams House GOP pic.twitter.com/sZqRmt6Cj6

— The Recount (@therecount) November 30, 2023

Fortunately for Democrats, that dynamic won't be changing anytime soon. House Republicans’ next debacle is already in process, with Johnson preparing to hold a vote as soon as next week on initiating a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.

Not only will it not be popular with voters, it's the perfect way for House Republicans to kick off 2024

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When good news about the economy triggers a bad news media vibe

The media spent the bulk of last year assuring Americans a recession was imminent. But not only has that much-ballyhooed recession failed to materialize, news also broke this week that the U.S. economy grew 5.2% in the third quarter—the fastest pace of growth in almost two years.

Good news! The notably robust growth, an upward revision from a previous government estimate of 4.9%, looks pretty sick (“cool” in kid slang) in this U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis bar graph comparing quarterly reports over the last year.

But wait, it gets better! The White House touted even more good news on Thursday:

  • Annual inflation fell to its lowest level in more than two-and-a-half years.

  • Monthly inflation was zero (zip, nada, nothing).

  • Gas prices have fallen by $1.77 since they peaked after Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.

  • Prices for eggs and milk are down over the past year.

To put a finer point on inflation easing: Personal consumption expenditures fell to 3% year over year in October—the lowest PCE inflation rate since March 2021. In graph form, it looks like inflation ascended a mighty hilltop over the past two years, peaking last summer, and nearly returning to the flatlands  in October.

More good news on the economy today: Annual inflation fell to its lowest level since March 2021 and monthly inflation was zero. President Biden will not stop fighting to lower costs for hardworking families. pic.twitter.com/wdoOf3uMb5

— Jeff Zients (@WHCOS) November 30, 2023

Don't worry, though, the dogged media is determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, come hell or high water.

Following news that consumer spending rose again in October, University of Michigan economics professor Justin Wolfers posed a challenge to reporters and analysts.

"There's been about a million think pieces asking 'why are people so miserable about the economy,'" Wolfers tweeted Thursday, "but I'm yet to see one grapple with the fact that folks are spending as if they're actually pretty optimistic about their economic futures."

There's been about a million think pieces asking "why are people so miserable about the economy," but I'm yet to see one grapple with the fact that folks are spending as if they're actually pretty optimistic about their economic futures. https://t.co/Y7d7xwtR6n

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) November 30, 2023

Turns out Wolfers was a day too late. CNBC had already met the challenge with a piece titled "Americans are 'doom spending' — here's why that's a problem.”

Hear that? Dooooooooooom spending! It's over, folks—pull up the covers, close your eyes, and retreat back to more comforting times, like when you were wiping down all your groceries to ensure they were plague-free.

The fanciful phrase "doom spending" appears to have been dreamed up by the credit monitoring service Credit Karma, and then mass distributed by CNBC:

Nearly all Americans, 96%, are concerned about the current state of the economy, according to a recent report by Intuit Credit Karma.

Still, more than a quarter are “doom spending,” or spending money despite economic and geopolitical concerns, the report found. ...

“Much like doom scrolling, we’re seeing people mindlessly shop to soothe concerns about the economy and foreign affairs, which could take a toll on their financial wellbeing,” Courtney Alev, Credit Karma’s consumer financial advocate, told CNBC.

Sorry, Wolfers—asked and answered. People are apparently so miserable, they are raining down money on the economy. It's dreadful stuff.

Not to be outdone, the Gray Lady's flagship podcast, ”The Daily,” dropped a 22-minute episode Thursday titled "The Bad Vibes Around a Good Economy." Sure, we may have escaped the long-promised recession on the policy side, but the whole economic vibe is just a downer right now, folks. Case in point: increased spending.

Thank goodness the media is here to tell us why we can’t have nice things—just in time for the holidays.

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There has been a ton of coverage in recent weeks over a streak of poor 2024 polling for Democrats and Target Smart’s Tom Bonier joins us to help us separate the wheat from the chaff. We talk about what to take from these polls and how to balance them against the much more positive election results we’ve seen this year. We also discuss how early voting data continues to evolve and how Sen. Sherrod Brown’s campaign will use Ohio’s recent abortion and marijuana referendums to find new persuadable voters next year.

Trump’s lawyer told him it would ‘be a crime’ to ignore a federal subpoena. Guess what he did next

Well, this is about the most Trumpy thing ever. Donald Trump's lawyer, Jennifer Little, reportedly warned him, in no uncertain terms, "it's going to be a crime" if you don't comply with a federal subpoena to return the classified documents Trump stored at Mar-a-Lago.

Not only that: Little told federal investigators Trump "absolutely" understood her warning.

The revelations came earlier this year during a grand jury appearance overseen by special counsel Jack Smith amid his inquiry into Trump's mishandling of sensitive government documents, according to ABC News. Little's testimony preceded Smith's June indictment of Trump for illegally retaining classified documents.

The exchange between Trump and Little allegedly took place during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago that also included lawyer Evan Corcoran, a recent addition to Trump's legal team at the time.

Little, who is currently part of Trump's defense team in the Georgia-based election interference case, allegedly told prosecutors that she stressed the point repeatedly throughout the meeting.

"You've got to comply," she told Trump, according to anonymous sources familiar with her sworn testimony.

Little attempted to separate the federal subpoena from previous attempts by the National Archives to retrieve the documents, telling him that going forward his actions would have "a legal ramification."

She allegedly explained that if Trump conducted a more thorough search of his Florida residence that turned up more documents and he subsequently returned them all, he would be in the clear.

However, failing to return all documents would have consequences moving forward.

"Once this is signed—if anything else is located—it's going to be a crime," Little recalled telling Trump, according to sources familiar with her testimony.

When prosecutors asked if Trump understood, she responded, "Absolutely."

Trump said something akin to, "OK, I get it," according to Little's testimony.

So here we are:

  • Trump is assured that doing X would "be a crime."

  • Trump "absolutely" understood the consequences of doing X

  • Trump does X anyway.

  • Trump complains about being the victim of a "WITCH HUNT!"

Immediately after being indicted in the case in June, Trump took to his social platform to accuse Smith of being a “deranged lunatic,” a “Trump Hater,” and a “psycho that shouldn’t be involved in any case having to do with ‘Justice.'"

Trump has continued to rail against Smith, who brought a second indictment against him for his involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

Earlier this month, Trump threatened in a Truth Social post that Smith and several other current and former Justice Department officials would end up in "a Mental Institution by the time my next term as President is successfully completed."

"MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" he added.

Indeed.

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Republican favorability ratings in battleground districts sink even lower

As House Republicans weigh launching an impeachment proceeding against President Joe Biden for who the hell knows what, new polling shows nearly 7 in 10 voters (68%) in battleground congressional districts across the country believe House Republicans have prioritized “the wrong things," while just 20% say they have prioritized the right things.

The findings come from a Navigator Research survey of 61 battleground districts in late October. And the poll suggests that sentiment is shared at roughly the same rate among voters represented by Democratic and Republican incumbents alike.

Voters' assessments of House Republican priorities have also plummeted since July, when Republicans were just 16 percentage points underwater on the question versus being 48 points underwater now—a net shift of -32 points in only three months.

Republican incumbents in Biden-won districts also have a net -10 favorability rating among their constituents (34% favorable, 44% unfavorable).

But wait, there's more: Republican incumbents in Trump-won districts are also underwater in terms of both favorability (-4 points on net, 41% favorable to 45% unfavorable) and job approval (-6 points, 37% favorable to 43% unfavorable).

Navigator says these are House Republicans' lowest ratings since the group's first battleground survey in April.

By contrast, throughout Navigator’s battleground series this year, Democratic incumbents have remained above water and improved over time. In this latest survey, Democratic incumbents are 9 points above water on favorability (42% to 33%) and 8 points above water on job approval (40% to 32%).

Survey responses continued to highlight economic anxiety among voters across the districts, with a 48% plurality rating the economy as "poor," and 54% expressing concern over being able to set aside money for savings. Inflation and the cost of goods remain key concerns.

When taking stock of their personal financial situation, however, 54% rated it positively, with 7% saying "excellent" and 47% saying "good."

But whatever their economic outlook, battleground voters overwhelmingly believe Republicans have not prioritized the economy, with 70% saying they haven't focused on economic issues, compared with just 17% who say they have.

With some 70% of battleground voters agreeing Republicans have prioritized “the wrong things" and haven't focused enough on economic issues, Republicans have the perfect fix: impeachment.

What’s that old phrase, again? It's the impeachment, stupid. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

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Cheney’s new book is a devastating indictment of Republican efforts to overturn 2020

In her new book, former Rep. Liz Cheney unloads on her former colleagues in the Republican Party, and to no one's surprise, her disgust is seething and deep.

"Oath and Honor," which was obtained by CNN, serves as an overarching indictment of the many Republicans Cheney deems most responsible for gifting the GOP to the twice-impeached, four-time criminally indicted Donald Trump, whom she calls “the most dangerous man ever to inhabit the Oval Office.”

“As a nation, we can endure damaging policies for a four-year term. But we cannot survive a president willing to terminate our Constitution," writes Cheney, who served as the number three House Republican before being ousted from leadership over her vote to impeach Trump for the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol.

According to the book, then-Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told Cheney following the 2020 election that Trump knew he had lost. “He knows it’s over,” McCarthy reportedly said at the time. “He needs to go through all the stages of grief.”

Yet that same day, Cheney reveals, McCarthy fanned the election-denial flames on Fox News, telling viewers, "President Trump won this election."

Cheney writes, "McCarthy knew that what he was saying was not true.” So much for virtue.

Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, a pro-Trump MAGA stalwart, derided the legal avenues for challenging the election results, saying, “The only thing that matters is winning,” according to Cheney. So much for honor.

Cheney also shredded Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana in the book, which she finished writing before he was elevated to speaker. Johnson, she said, pressured his Republican colleagues to sign on to an amicus brief supporting his legal challenge to 2020 results.

“When I confronted him with the flaws in his legal arguments," Cheney writes, "Johnson would often concede, or say something to the effect of, ‘We just need to do this one last thing for Trump.'" So much for the rule of law.

Fast-forward to Nov. 29, 2023, and Johnson contrasting Republicans' ham-handed effort to impeach President Joe Biden with what he framed as Democrats' "brazenly political" impeachment of Trump for springing a violent coup attempt on the U.S. Capitol.

"What you are seeing here is exactly the opposite. We are the rule-of-law team—the Republican Party stands for the rule of law," Johnson told reporters Wednesday, touting his work to defend Trump against Democrats’ "meritless" impeachment proceedings.

Speaker Mike Johnson claims that both of Donald Trump's impeachments were “brazenly political” and “meritless,” but says the GOP's efforts to impeach Joe Biden are “just the opposite” because “the Republican Party stands for the rule of law.” pic.twitter.com/vqpjqbPnbk

— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) November 29, 2023

Just a quick trip to Republicans' present day house-of-mirrors routine as the majority party in the House. Now, back to the book.

Perhaps the most chilling part of CNN's write-up was Cheney's recollection of House Republicans' methodical efforts to reject the will of the people in 2020. Here’s CNN:

On Jan. 6, before the attack on the Capitol, Cheney describes a scene in the GOP cloakroom, where members were encouraged to sign their names on electoral vote objection sheets, lined up on a table, one for each of the states Republicans were contesting. Cheney writes most members knew “it was a farce” and “another public display of fealty to Donald Trump.”

“Among them was Republican Congressman Mark Green of Tennessee,” Cheney writes. “As he moved down the line, signing his name to the pieces of paper, Green said sheepishly to no one in particular, ‘The things we do for the Orange Jesus.’”

So much for fealty to the Constitution.

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Forget the 2024 doomsayers: Here’s the metric that really matters for Biden

The latest freakout over President Joe Biden's reelection chances stemmed from a pair of polls this week. One suggested Biden's approval rating among Democrats is reaching record lows, while another suggested Biden is running behind Donald Trump by several points in five key swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia (Michigan and Nevada were the outliers).

Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in several key swing states Read more: https://t.co/opQj2pZS8z pic.twitter.com/lfBkJHgIJd

— Bloomberg (@business) October 27, 2023

Let's not waste a second dissecting that poll, because it is 100% irrelevant at this point. Why? Because many Americans—if not most—haven't even come to the realization yet that 2024 will likely end up a Biden-Trump rematch.

This is something Focus Group podcaster Sarah Longwell has noted repeatedly in her groups. Voters who are unenthused by Biden and on the fence about voting for him again in 2024 often come around once they are told Trump will likely be the Republican nominee.

"When you tell them, What if it's Trump again, they're like, ‘Oh yeah, no, no, no—I'm all in,’" Longwell said.

So all of these Biden-Trump head-to-head polls are currently asking voters about a matchup that a whole lot of people don't believe is going to happen. In other words, voters aren’t even in the headspace to properly take such a scenario seriously.

The metric that really matters was crystalized nicely by Democratic strategist Cornell Belcher, who noted recently that Trump will likely secure some 47% of the electorate—roughly the same  share he won in both 2016 (45.9%) and 2020 (46.8%). That's his ceiling.

So the real tell is how close Biden gets to securing 51% of the electorate.

"Anything that undermines Biden garnering a majority is how we get 2016 all over again," Belcher said of the third-party spoiler that gifted key swing states to Trump.

"Also note, polls that aren’t bad for Biden get no press," Belcher added, linking to a Marist/NPR/PBS NewHour poll earlier this month that showed Biden running ahead of Trump, 49% - 46%.

The +gap which is often emphasized doesn’t really matter. What matters is how close Biden is to 51% because Trump IS going to get 47%. Anything that undermines Biden garnering a majority is how we get 2016 all over again. Also note, polls that aren’t bad for Biden get no press 🤷🏾‍♂️ https://t.co/tOBHHjyy5M

— Cornell Belcher (@cornellbelcher) October 17, 2023

As I have written before: Third-party candidacies that eat into Biden's ability to reach 50-plus-one continue to be Democrats' biggest obstacle next year.

For now, polls show anti-vaccine activist and “independent” gadfly Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking more votes from Trump than Biden. But that does not factor in bids by a “bipartisan” No Labels ticket, or left-wing activist Cornel West—or even the latest Democratic primary challenge from Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, which appears precisely designed to do little more than hobble Biden.

No matter your view on whether a primary to Biden is useful, the particular strategy laid about by Schmidt to @TimAlberta of relentlessly attacking Biden is insane. This can only be described as a pro-Trump effort disguised as a primary campaign. https://t.co/DPtpmn3Nfs pic.twitter.com/0lyObncR7h

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) October 27, 2023

The 2024 election cycle promises to play out on one of the most unpredictable political landscapes in modern memory, likely defined by two candidates for whom Americans are uniquely unenthused to vote. The trick for Team Biden will be to recreate the anti-Trump coalition of 2020—but this time around Biden will have a record to defend and a lot more distractions to deal with.

Trust me when I say none of the current polling or hot takes are capturing the complexities of next year's electorate.

For now, the most constructive thing any Democrat who wants to reelect Biden can do is repeatedly remind their anti-Trump friends and family members that casting a third-party vote next year—or even staying home—is a de facto vote for Trump. That is especially true of young voters, who still generally lean Democratic but could be third-party curious or simply too dispirited to get to the polls.

Picking up a theme that's been well documented from our @HarvardIOP polling -- Young voters are less enthusiastic (-10) about the election at this stage in cycle than they were at same point last cycle. They still overwhelmingly prefer Biden -- it's just a different vibe.

— John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe) September 27, 2023

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Republicans suck so bad, some mainstream media outlets are even getting McCarthy’s ouster right

In a refreshing turn of events, House Republicans are putting on such a dazzling display of self-immolation that many mainstream media outlets have been forced to accurately portray the level of pandemonium these so-called lawmakers have unleashed on the institution they supposedly govern and the country they purportedly serve.

A Wednesday morning Politico piece opened with, “There’s no House speaker, Republicans are tearing each other to shreds over Kevin McCarthy’s ouster and another shutdown deadline is less than six weeks away — with no leader in a strong enough position to guide the party through.”

While the reports, analyses, and opinion pieces almost always note that a small band of Republicans "voted with Democrats" to oust Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his post, they still deride Republicans and McCarthy as the root of the problem. After all, it's on the majority party to elect a speaker of the House, not the minority party.  

As The Washington Post’s Paul Kane quipped about McCarthy, “There’s a price to pay for helping set fire to an institution and then asking the fire department to come save your office.”

In a piece satisfyingly titled, "Republicans cut off their own heads," The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote that the eight rogue Republicans led by Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida toppled McCarthy "without a plan, a replacement, or even a policy goal in mind."

[T]he House is essentially frozen. The putative GOP majority is weaker, and its ability to gain any policy victories has been undermined. Oversight of the Biden Administration will slow or stop. Republicans in swing districts who are vulnerable in 2024 will be especially wary of trusting the Gaetz faction, and regaining any unity of purpose will be that much harder.

A Politico Magazine piece by editor John Harris declared, "The House GOP is a failed State."

McCarthy’s ouster is dramatic evidence, if redundant, about the state of the modern GOP. A party that used to have an instinctual orientation toward authority and order — Democrats fall in love, went the old chestnut, while Republicans fall in line — is now animated by something akin to nihilism. The politics of contempt so skillfully exploited by Donald Trump is turned inward on hapless would-be leaders like McCarthy with no less ferocity than it is turned outward on liberals and the media.

In a Washington Post analysis titled, "McCarthy ouster exposes the Republican Party's destructive tendencies," Dan Balz wrote that Republicans had "brought the legislative body to a halt" and "now risk being returned to minority status by voters in next year’s election."

And NBC News' First Read cut to the chase in a report titled, "Republicans struggle to govern—and McCarthy paid the price."

It all underscores a fundamental point about today’s political dysfunction in Washington: Republicans have had a difficult — if not impossible — time governing, especially when they control at least one legislative chamber but not the White House. And that difficulty has only gotten worse.

Arguably, Republicans have had a tough time governing recently, even when they had unified control of government. For instance, starting in late 2018, then-President Donald Trump presided over the longest government shutdown in history.

But quibbles aside, by and large, these mainstream pieces got it right: Republicans are a menace to good governance and should never be in charge.

Sign the petition: No to shutdowns, no to Biden impeachment, no to Republicans

House Democrats tell Republicans to pound sand

The party that controls the House of Representatives is the party charged with making it work—or governing, as some might put it. And House Democrats staunchly told Republicans Tuesday they must sink or swim on their own.

The Speaker of the House is chosen by the Majority Party. In this Congress, it is the responsibility of House Republicans to choose a nominee & elect the Speaker on the Floor. At this time there is no justification for a departure from this tradition. The House will be in order.

— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) October 3, 2023

Specifically, as Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy faced a potential ouster by MAGA misfits in his own party, Democrats told him to pound sand. They wouldn’t bail him out—not even the moderate Democratic members of the so-called Problem Solvers Caucus.

NEW: Centrist Dems in bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, which just met, told Rs in the group they won't be saving McCarthy, per sources – McCarthy’s last potential line of defense and another sign that Democrats will be unified in their decision not to bail the speaker out.

— Melanie Zanona (@MZanona) October 3, 2023

According to CNN's Melanie Zanona, centrist Democrats told Republicans in their bipartisan group early on Tuesday that they wouldn't rescue McCarthy.

McCarthy needed a total of 214 votes to save his job as speaker—meaning he couldn’t lose more than a handful of his own members, or else he would need Democrats to help make up the difference.

But instead of helping McCarthy out of the corner he negotiated himself into when he seized the gavel by putting himself one disgruntled misfit away from being vacated, Democrats called on moderate Republicans to reject the MAGA extremists who constantly threaten to sink the economy, the country, and democracy itself with stunts like allowing a catastrophic debt default and rooting for government shutdowns.

“We are ready, willing and able to work together with our Republican colleagues, but it is on them to join us,” Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters Tuesday after an hours-long meeting with his caucus.

As former Republican Rep. David Jolly of Florida told MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace, McCarthy repeatedly proved to Democrats that he couldn’t be a trusted partner by breaking his promises, routinely demonizing Democrats, launching an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, and refusing to participate in the Jan. 6 investigation last Congress when he was the minority leader.

“He did everything to remind Democrats that Kevin McCarthy, though he walks around with a smile, is really no different than the leading hard-right Republicans like Jim Jordan,” Jolly said. 

The cohesive Democratic stand against rescuing Republicans from the MAGA hostage takers who run their caucus and terrorize the country is both good politics for Democrats and good governance for the country.

First and foremost, MAGA maniacs shouldn't be in charge of any legislative chamber when they have demonstrated zero interest in doing The People’s business of governing.

Second, and equally as important, Americans must be allowed to witness and experience the dysfunction of a Republican Party in thrall to MAGA maniacs. This is what voters get if they put the Republican Party in charge of anything—even if they cast their vote for a supposedly sane Republican.

Remember, former Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi governed the 117th Congress with a razor-thin House majority too. But Pelosi kept the lights on and passed a historic amount of legislation, directing tens of billions of dollars to bills addressing COVID relief, infrastructure improvements, American manufacturing, and battling climate change.

As former Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock of Virginia, a onetime rising GOP star, told MSNBC of the spectacle on the House floor, "This is a very sad day for the institution. This is what MAGA has done, both to the country and to the institution."

Comstock said she was sad for the Republican Party, and added, "but I'm even more sad for the institution and for the country."

Poll shows how misguided House Republicans are about a government shutdown

Fresh off their crackerjack idea of launching an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, House Republicans are greasing the skids for a government shutdown. In their view, it's both righteous and popular. Not kidding.

“We’re going to have a shutdown, it’s just a matter of how long,” Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina said Thursday. “We believe in what we are doing. The jury will be the country. And the jury is fed up with reckless spending.”

On Friday, the progressive consortium Navigator Research released fresh polling on voters' views of a government shutdown and the government's spending priorities.

Seventy-seven percent of voters believe a government shutdown this fall would hurt the economy either a lot (45%) or somewhat (32%). A measly 13% of voters said it would not hurt the economy.

🚨 NEW POLL: 77% of Americans believe a government shutdown this fall would hurt the economy, including… 🔵 84% of Democrats 🟢 74% of independents 🔴 71% of Republicans … as well as 83% of those who rate the economy negatively, but support Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. pic.twitter.com/8FLPOMJtIn

— Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) September 15, 2023

And while Republicans think shutting down the government in an attempt to slash spending is a righteous cause, the spending cuts they are proposing are deeply unpopular.

At least 3 in 4 voters oppose cuts to the following: Social Security, nutrition assistance for children and vulnerable families, K-12 education, funding to provide safe and clean drinking water, and investments in life-saving medical research for children, cancer patients, and maternal health.

Bottom line: The more righteous House Republicans feel about their shutdown and their rationale for it, the better it is for Democrats. No one wants a shutdown but House Republicans, and they seem more than happy to own it.

Sign and send the petition: Pass a clean funding bill. No GOP hostage taking.

Kerry talks with Drew Linzer, director of the online polling company Civiqs. Drew tells us what the polls say about voters’ feelings toward President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and what the results would be if the two men were to, say … run against each other for president in 2024. Oh yeah, Drew polled to find out who thinks Donald Trump is guilty of the crimes he’s been indicted for, and whether or not he should see the inside of a jail cell.

Cheney’s jab at ‘Putin wing’ of the Republican Party is an electoral masterstroke … for Democrats

Back in the before times, Democrats loved to hate former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, partly because of their pointed political disagreements with her but also because she was actually a damn good messenger.

But Cheney’s politics aside, he messaging prowess worked to Democrats' advantage during the Jan. 6 select committee hearings last year: Cheney was always mission-driven, on point, and in command of the facts. The committee she helped lead as vice chair proved to be the most consequential congressional spectacle in decades, arguably helping to deal Republicans a blow at the ballot box last November and spurring a Justice Department inquiry into Donald Trump's role in the insurrection.

Now Cheney is taking up a new role as we barrel toward another election in which Trump appears poised to top the GOP ticket. Instead of littering the Republican primary as another doomed Trump detractor, Cheney is dropping incisive anti-Trump messages into the political ether.

Cheney's latest addition to the political landscape came Tuesday, when she sought to separate old-guard Republican defense hawks from newfangled MAGA isolationists.  

"Putin has now officially endorsed the Putin-wing of the Republican Party," Cheney tweeted over an AP News article about Russian President Vladimir Putin blasting the criminal indictments of Trump as "rotten" politically motivated prosecutions.

"Putin Republicans & their enablers will end up on the ash heap of history," continued Cheney. "Patriotic Americans in both parties who believe in the values of liberal democracy will make sure of it."

Putin has now officially endorsed the Putin-wing of the Republican Party. Putin Republicans & their enablers will end up on the ash heap of history. Patriotic Americans in both parties who believe in the values of liberal democracy will make sure of it. https://t.co/XsJN7b6fPs

— Liz Cheney (@Liz_Cheney) September 12, 2023

Cheney's rallying cry against "Putin Republicans" seeks to make common cause among a politically divergent group of establishment Republicans and Democrats who are united in their support for Ukraine, rejection of Trump, and disdain for Putin.

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Rhetorically speaking, "Putin Republicans" and "Putin wing" of the Republican Party are also sticky phrases that could potentially catch on, helping to create a definitive us (democracy stalwarts) versus them (Trump/Putin backers) dynamic.

MAGA Republicans hate Cheney with a white-hot rage and reveled along with Trump in throwing her out on her ear last year. But her name still holds political sway with a very narrow slice of the Republican Party—perhaps some 5% or so—and that's still a meaningful chunk of voters in a general election, even if it's a pittance in the primary.

Democrats would be smart to take note of Cheney's messaging and even take it up, reinforcing it. She is skillfully helping to create a permission structure for old-guard Republicans to help reelect Joe Biden next year, even if they don't particularly like him.

It's a device Biden loves, as he has routinely shied away from painting Republican voters with such a broad brush that he alienates all of them.

Some of those conventional Republican voters could very well be the difference between a one-term presidency and Biden's successful reelection next year.