Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid

Posted on (Updated by Al Weaver

Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) announced Thursday night he will not run for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, allowing Republicans to breathe easy and opening a clear path for David McCormick to take on Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) next year.

Mastriano made the news official during a Facebook Live event mere months after he lost the state's gubernatorial contest to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) by nearly 15 points.

"At this time, we have decided not to run for the U.S. Senate, but to continue to serve in Harrisburg," Mastriano said. "I know for some that will be disappointing. For others, it won't be disappointing because you're like, 'Who's going to fill his seat? Who's going to be our voice in Harrisburg?'" 

"We need to beat [Casey]. While I have decided not to run, someone else will decide to run, and someone else will win the primary next year and be the nominee. Whoever is that nominee, I will support them," he continued. "We hope you will too because I don't want any other Republican candidate to go through what we went through last year when our own party betrayed us."

A bid by Mastriano, a hard-line conservative who won former President Trump's endorsement in 2022, would not have been greeted kindly by many top Republicans, who believe that in losing the governor's mansion, he hurt the party in congressional contests and in state legislature races, including the GOP's loss of the state House. 

Mastriano’s decision means the road is wide open for McCormick, who narrowly lost the state's GOP Senate primary last year to Mehmet Oz, to nab the party’s nomination to take on Casey. 

McCormick has yet to decide on whether to launch a second straight Senate bid, but he is expected to do so later this summer or in the fall as establishment GOP forces line up behind him.

“I thank Doug for his years of military and public service and his dedication to Pennsylvania,” McCormick said in a statement. "I am seriously considering a run for the U.S. Senate because Bob Casey has consistently made life worse for Pennsylvania families over the past 18 years, and our state deserves better."

"We need a Republican nominee who can build a broad coalition of Pennsylvanians to defeat Bob Casey and improve the lives of Pennsylvania families," he added.

The potential candidate-in-waiting has remained in the news throughout the year with the rollout of a book and an ongoing book tour. He has also kept up meetings across the state with party leaders, including at the county level. 

Among those pushing for him to run is Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who has made clear he believes McCormick is the type of candidate who can win a primary and a general election matchup against the three-term Senate Democrat with a legendary name in Pennsylvania politics. 

“[McCormick] would be a candidate that I think unites Republicans in Pennsylvania and he’d be a very strong candidate in the primary and the general,” Daines said in March.

In addition, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is run by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), has also signaled its backing of the former Bridgewater Associates CEO. 

The Pennsylvania Senate contest is widely expected to be one of the most expensive on the 2024 map, with sources telling The Hill the nominee is expected to need at least $100 million for the potential brawl. McCormick could dip into his own bank account to help fund his efforts, though he is not expected to do so after he dropped $14 million into last year’s primary contest in only five months.

Casey won his seat in 2006 by defeating then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.). He has also handily won reelection twice, having most recently defeated then-Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Pa.) by a 13-point margin. 

Democrats had been salivating at the possibility of Mastriano entering the race. Shapiro’s team last year spent $3 million to boost Mastriano in a seven-candidate field and ensure he would be their general election opponent. 

“Tonight Mastriano threatened that he and his supporters will continue looming over Republicans in Pennsylvania, which will make their Senate Primary dynamics in even messier — and guarantee whichever candidate emerges will be badly damaged and out of step with the voters who will decide the general election," the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said in a statement.

Mastriano’s performance last year also seemed to turn off former President Trump, who reportedly was opposed to him entering the race and did not plan to endorse him in a potential Senate bid. 

Trump, of course, spoke harshly of McCormick during his Senate bid last year, likening him to former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who voted to convict the president in his second impeachment trial over his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and called him a “liberal Wall Street Republican.”

Tuberville finds himself at center of storm on abortion, white nationalism

Posted on (Updated by Al Weaver

Editor’s note: Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) says she supports Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) hold on military promotions. A previous version of this story contained incorrect information. 

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) has placed himself at the center of a growing storm touching on abortion, the military and white nationalism, irritating colleagues and turning himself into a more high-profile political target.

The former Auburn University football coach turned first-term Alabama senator has annoyed fellow Republicans with a hold on military promotions, earning rare criticism from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — who loathes to publicly criticize a fellow GOP senator.

He then made his troubles worse by criticizing Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a local NPR interview for wanting to get “the white extremists, the white nationalists” out of the military. Pressed on those remarks, Tuberville said he’d call white nationalists “Americans.” 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) pounced on those comments from Tuberville, one of former President Trump’s most vocal advocates in the Senate, labeling them “revolting.”

“Does Sen. Tuberville honestly believe that our military is stronger with white nationalists in its ranks?” Schumer said. “I cannot believe this needs to be said, but white nationalism has no place in our armed forces and no place in any corner of American society, period, full stop, end of story.”

Abortion politics

Tuberville’s battle with the military is about the subject of abortion, an issue that has repeatedly helped Democrats in elections and hurt Republicans since the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

Tuberville has effectively blocked promotions for roughly 200 senior military officials in key regions over the Pentagon’s abortion policy, which allows service members to take leave and provides travel reimbursements for those who need to travel to get an abortion. That is a more common need since the end of Roe.

Tuberville has said he would lift the holds in exchange for a vote on legislation to change the Pentagon policy, but Democratic senators have been unwilling to give in on that point. Tuberville said he would lift the holds even if his bill did not pass — a likelihood since it would need 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles.

“I find the senator’s approach to the men and women who are seeking advancement in our military to really be painfully wrong,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Senate Democrat, when asked whether Democrats would be amenable to voting to end the Pentagon abortion policy.

McConnell has made it clear he opposes Tuberville’s holds.

“No, I don’t support putting a hold on military nominations,” McConnell told reporters last week in response to a question about Tuberville’s blockade. “I don’t support that. But as to why, you’ll have to ask Sen. Tuberville.”

The military promotions in question include those in NATO and in the Indo-Pacific and would usually be passed unanimously all together. Austin argued in a letter last week the hold is also detrimental to military families and imposes “needless additional stress” on them.

Wrong direction

At the heart of Tuberville’s arguments on abortion and in the white nationalism remarks is that the military is moving in the wrong direction, specifically on recruiting and readiness.

He is quick to note the Army missed its recruiting goal in 2022 by 25 percent and attributes that to the leftward lurch in recent years and an attempt to freeze out Trump backers. 

In seeking to clean up his remarks about white nationalism to the NPR station, Tuberville’s office said he was being skeptical of the notion that white nationalists were in the military, not that they should be in the military.

Later, however, in a separate interview with NPR, Tuberville said he considered someone who was a white nationalist to be a “Trump Republican” and a “MAGA person.”

Though some Republicans have opposed Tuberville’s holds, they are largely brushing off the Democratic criticisms of his remarks about white nationalism.

One Senate Republican told The Hill the one-two punch isn’t creating internal consternation for the GOP conference, adding the remarks last week are viewed as an “isolated event” and downplayed it as “one member acting on his own.” 

At the same time, the Senate Republican said Tuberville might want to rethink his strategy.

“If you use holds strategically and you focus on an agency, there’s no reason why he can’t pick and choose,” the Senate Republican said. “I think he’d be wise to just go back and just identify the agency that Austin’s inaction is going to end up having a problem with and just create a problem for that agency versus a [Department of Defense]-wide issue. That’s going to be hard to hold up over time.” 

“That really should have been the way he went into it to begin with,” the Senate GOP member added.

Back-slapping

Tuberville, despite the controversies, is well-liked by his conference. Commonly referred to around the Capitol as “coach,” Tuberville is seen frequently back-slapping colleagues before and after votes. Many Republicans see him as taking action with the holds that are well within his senatorial powers, regardless of whether they agree with him. 

“[Tuberville’s] serious about this. He’s very serious. It’s not just some show that’s going on,” said Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), a fellow member of the Armed Services Committee who supports his hold though she has previously said it isn't necessarily the tactic she'd use.

His long-standing hold even has support in some corners of GOP leadership. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a McConnell ally, told reporters earlier this week the opposition is warranted. 

“One of the biggest problems around here is people aren’t held accountable when they overstep their authority,” Cornyn said, referring to the Pentagon. “I regret that it’s necessary, but I think it is.”

For now, how to end Tuberville’s hold remains very much in question to members of both parties as the senator said earlier this week “nothing” will push him to compromise on the situation, short of the Pentagon reversing its policy.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told The Hill Tuberville should end his hold and instead seek an amendment vote on the issue via the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

However, Tuberville told reporters earlier this week he doesn’t want to hold the NDAA up with this ongoing push and added he wasn’t interested in a handshake deal with the Biden administration and Democratic leaders on the matter.

“They did that with [Sen. Joe Manchin], and they lied to him,” Tuberville said, pointing to Manchin’s attempt to get permitting reform attached to last year’s NDAA. 

The abortion issue is also creating political headaches back home for Tuberville as the Biden administration may nix plans for the U.S. Space Command’s headquarters to move from Colorado Springs, Colo., to Huntsville, Ala. Multiple reports indicate the issue, headlined by the state’s restrictive law that bans nearly abortions, is at the heart of the potential decision.

“It’s not something that’s gone over super well [in the state],” one Alabama GOP source told The Hill, noting that is especially the case in Huntsville, where 10,000 jobs could be impacted. 

Other Senate Republicans believe that if Democrats accede to Tuberville’s request for a vote on the Pentagon policy to end the hold, it’s not out of the question that another GOP member could fill his void and announce a blockade of their own. 

“I’m not sure there aren’t other Republicans who would be more than happy to step in, particularly from strong pro-life places and say, ‘Wait a minute, I’m putting a hold on all these rascals until they change this policy,’” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said.  

As of this week, Tuberville told The Hill he has yet to hear from anyone on the other side of the aisle about reaching a resolution. Instead, Democrats this week launched another effort to advance the horde of military promotions via unanimous request. 

“I will come to the floor as many times as possible,” Tuberville said on the floor. “To this point, I hope I’ve been clear. I’ve laid out the conditions for my holds and when I will drop my holds. These conditions have not been met, and I will not drop this hold until they are met.”

Feinstein: ‘I haven’t been gone. I’ve been working’

Posted on (Updated by Al Weaver

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), 89, told reporters Tuesday that she hadn't been away from Washington while recovering from an illness for more than two months, despite her being hospitalized and not being at the Capitol during that time.

“No, I haven’t been gone,” Feinstein said when a reporter asked her about the well-wishes her Senate colleagues have given her since she returned to the Capitol last week. “You should — I haven’t been gone. I’ve been working.”

The Los Angeles Times and Slate both reported on the exchange, in which Feinstein said that she is “feeling fine” after her lengthy bout with shingles.

When a reporter asked if she was referring to working from home, Feinstein reiterated that she's been in Washington. 

“No, I’ve been here. I’ve been voting,” Feinstein said. “Please. You either know or don’t know.”

A Feinstein spokesperson declined to immediately comment on the reports.

Feinstein was hospitalized and stayed away from the Capitol for weeks because of complications from shingles.

Her absence led four House Democrats, including Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), to call for her resignation as Democrats struggled to move judicial nominations through the Senate. Critics have argued she can no longer serve America’s most populous state effectively, given her health.

Feinstein and her office have pushed back at some suggestions, and the pressure to resign has not come from Democratic colleagues in the Senate, key allies in the House, the White House or California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

The exchange with the reporters, however, is likely to raise more scrutiny about Feinstein’s acuity — and her ability to effectively serve her state.

Feinstein has been told by doctors to maintain a lighter workload since she returned to the Capitol last week for the first time since February. 

The longtime California Democrat, a political legend in the state, announced earlier this year she would not seek another term in the Senate.

Feinstein helped Senate Democrats last week advance three judicial nominees that had been unable to move toward full Senate confirmation votes in her absence. She also took part in some Senate floor votes Wednesday and Thursday. 

Clarence Thomas’s problems multiply at Supreme Court

Posted on (Updated by Al Weaver

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is facing a fresh round of scrutiny after the third blockbuster report in less than a month links him financially to GOP megadonor Harlan Crow.

ProPublica reported Thursday that Crow, a Dallas-based real estate developer, paid thousands of dollars in tuition to a private boarding school for Thomas’s great-nephew, whom Thomas has said he raised “as a son.”

Federal ethics laws require the justices to report gifts given to a “dependent child,” but that term is defined to only include the justices’ children or stepchildren. Thomas’s allies have insisted the payment doesn’t violate the disclosure law since it was for Thomas’s sister’s grandson.

But the revelation has only added to the increasing pressure from Democrats for the justices to adopt a binding code of ethics.

“Today’s report continues a steady stream of revelations calling Justices’ ethics standards and practices into question. I hope that the Chief Justice understands that something must be done—the reputation and credibility of the Court is at stake,” Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said in a statement.

When asked during a SiriusXM interview about impeaching Thomas, however, Durbin said “no.” He noted that only one justice, Samuel Chase, had been impeached previously, and Chase was acquitted in the Senate in 1805.

“I don't think an impeachment is in the works, particularly with the House in a political situation that it’s in today,” Durbin said on “The Briefing with Steve Scully.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a Judiciary Committee member, argued the matter should be referred to the Department of Justice.

“There’s a potential criminal violation in the misreporting or failure to report certain benefits, gifts and financial transactions. There’s just a drip, drip, drip of additional information that is gravely undermining the Court, but also creating the need for a full factual investigation,” Blumenthal said.

“If [the Justice Department] fails to do so, Congress definitely has a role,” he added.

Thomas did not return a request for comment through a court spokesperson.

Later on Thursday, The Washington Post reported that Leonard Leo, a conservative judicial activist who played a key role in the Supreme Court’s rightward shift, directed tens of thousands of dollars be paid to Thomas’s wife, Ginni, roughly a decade ago.

Leo requested that she not be named in the paperwork, according to the Post. Ginni Thomas, a conservative activist herself, has long insisted that she doesn't talk about the court’s business with her husband.

Judiciary Committee Democrats have been hamstrung on taking action regarding the court, including on a potential subpoena for Chief Justice John Roberts. He declined an invitation from Durbin to appear at a Tuesday hearing on Supreme Court ethics, noting that it is “exceedingly rare” for a chief justice to give testimony. 

That could change if Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who has been absent for months due to shingles, returns and once again gives Democrats an 11-10 majority on the panel — though even then subpoenaing the chief justice of the Supreme Court would be an extraordinary step.

Thursday’s ProPublica report was the latest financial transaction involving Thomas and Crow to come to light. The investigative outlet last month reported Thomas had accepted luxury trips from Crow, including flying on his private jet, without disclosing the travels. 

ProPublica also reported Crow had purchased real estate from Thomas’s mother that Thomas had an interest in.

“The definition of insanity is seeing the same Supreme Court justice violate ethics rules over and over again and expecting him to actually hold himself accountable,” Sarah Lipton-Lubet, president of Take Back the Court Action Fund, said in a statement. “How many more examples of Thomas flouting disclosure rules do our elected leaders need to see before they intervene? Thomas needs to answer for his misconduct. It’s time to subpoena him.”

Republicans, on the other hand, indicated little willingness to wade into the waters related to the justice who has served on the court for 32 years. They say this is an issue for the Supreme Court to deal with and not something that requires congressional oversight. Interfering, they argue, would go against the separation of powers.

“The Supreme Court … writes its own rules and if there is any policing of those rules to be done, I think it ought to be done by them,” Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican, told reporters. “I assume the members of the Court, who I have a high level of confidence in, will make the right decisions for the justices on the Court and for the people who work at the Supreme Court in the same way as we make the rules for all members of Congress.”

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who recently indicated that he was dismayed by reports of the ethical issues for Thomas, said the Court needs to make ethics changes.

“These revelations with regards to a number of justices, both those appointed by Republicans and by Democrats, suggest that the Court itself needs to evaluate what their disclosure rules are and ethics rules are and methods for enforcing those,” Romney said. “I presume that the chief justice will undertake that.”

Republicans have further portrayed the Thomas scrutiny as a double standard, taking aim at the ethics of the high court’s liberal justices.

They note that liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg accepted an award in 2010 from the Woman's National Democratic Club. 

They have also pointed to liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor not recusing herself when the court considered taking up two cases involving book publisher Penguin Random House, despite disclosing payments from the conglomerate for her books. Conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch, who also received payments from the publisher for his book, similarly did not recuse.

Why Buttigieg is drawing so much GOP scorn

Posted on (Updated by Al Weaver

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is increasingly in the eye of the GOP storm in the aftermath of a train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, that spilled toxic chemicals.

The disaster, which came just a month after a series of embarrassing air travel issues that snarled plans for millions of Americans, is prompting renewed scrutiny of his tenure atop the department.

But Democrats charge those aren’t the only reasons Buttigieg has become the target of such ire.

“Before, if you got your flight delayed, you weren't like ‘oh that damn Elaine Chao,’” one Democratic operative said, referring to the Transportation secretary under former President Trump. “That's the downside that comes with being such a good public figure.”

Republicans, for their part, point to Buttigieg’s role as one of Biden’s top surrogates and his potential aspirations for higher office as central to their frustrations. They say he’s not paying enough attention to his current job when there are plenty of high-level issues on his plate.

And as an example, they blasted him this month for taking 10 days to make a statement about the crash in Ohio, which occurred Feb. 3, and are turning up the heat on Buttigieg and his department over what caused the derailment and the agency’s response.

“I understand that the secretary is politically ambitious, and he’d like to move to government housing in Washington right up the street, but he does have a job to do,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), the ranking member on the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, told reporters. “Maybe instead of focusing on gun control and denouncing freeways as racist, he should focus on addressing the enormous challenges we have on our railways, with multiple derailments where the secretary has been AWOL.”

Sens. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) sent a letter to Buttigieg on Wednesday raising questions about the department’s oversight of the U.S. rail system. 

And Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) floated impeaching Buttigieg over how he has handled the derailment.

"I hope he does resign, and if he doesn't, there's a long list of impeachment criteria,” Davidson told conservative outlet Real America’s Voice Thursday. “I never would have thought we'd see a point where we need to impeach a Secretary of Transportation, but daggon, how many failures have to happen on his watch before we call it?”

The Department of Transportation (DOT) has defended its overall response as it assists the National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB) investigation into the crash and the Environmental Protection Agency's handling of the fallout from the toxic chemicals that have ravaged the eastern Ohio town. 

In a statement, the department said its staff “were on the ground hours after the derailment” in support of NTSB’s probe. 

“It’s no surprise to see some playing politics with every crisis, even something as serious as the impacts of a global pandemic on our transportation systems or a train derailment,” a Department of Transportation spokesperson said in a statement. The spokesperson added that Buttigieg and the department is continuing to “focus on getting results” on a number of topics, including requirements for airlines to cover hotel and food expenses for stranded travelers and overseeing the implementation of the bipartisan infrastructure package. 

However, the issues with Buttigieg run deeper for Republicans. In addition to his political aspirations, multiple senators argued that his priorities at the department are out of place and that his level of outreach with committee members is far off from those of other cabinet members. 

“The thing they want more than anything else is competence, particularly in the midst of crisis. My sense is that he, like many others in the administration, are not the types of, sort of, hands on managers that you need at a time like that,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who is also a member on Commerce Committee. “I think part of it too is just the efforts he makes. … Some members of the cabinet, particularly on the relevant committees, the committees of jurisdiction, do a really good job of outreach and I don’t get that from him.”

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), another Commerce member, told The Hill that Buttigieg’s “philosophical push for everything to be climate and politically correct” is at the heart of the issues for GOP members. 

“We have practical matters we need to do like permitting and building new roads and having new constructions and he pretty much puts his foot down on a lot of that stuff,” Capito said. “He’s just not leading and I think that’s the frustration.”

The Transportation Department disputed criticisms from the two lawmakers, noting that Buttigieg has had more than 100 interactions with GOP members of Congress since taking on the role. 

The department added that it is “committed to building more resilient infrastructure,” including roads, bridges and evacuation routes “that can withstand extreme weather and climate events,” pointing to a program unveiled last year alongside Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) that would “help states and communities better prepare for and respond to extreme weather events.”

Buttigieg, 41, has been one of the most visible administration officials over the past two years. After a surprisingly strong but ultimately failed presidential bid, he was a vocal and often-seen proponent of Build Back Better and crisscrossed the country to tout the White House’s bipartisan infrastructure law.

He also drew public condemnation last year from right-wing pundits — though not from lawmakers — for taking paternity leave to care for the newborn twins he welcomed with his husband.

Among cabinet members, Buttigieg is one of the precious few who is considered a potential White House candidate in the coming years. Democrats far and away believe that is the main genesis for the attacks from Republicans and argue that he is an invaluable member of the administration.

The intense criticism led the White House to weigh in on Thursday. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that Biden has “absolute confidence” in the secretary who has turned out to be one of the White House’s most trusted voices in defense of administration policy. 

A number of Commerce Committee Democrats have also dismissed attacks against him. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), the panel’s chairwoman, said that the criticisms are intense because some consider him “the future of our party.” Others pointed to his key voice in the administration. 

“He’s smart and he knows the English language very well, so he represents himself very well under pressure. … He’s pretty damn good, I’m always impressed,” Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) told The Hill. “The issues with the flights and all that stuff — he’s secretary of Transportation. He’s going to get some shit, that’s the way it is.”

Buttigieg’s political stature coupled with the fact that the areas he oversees — infrastructure and air travel, for example — affect Americans daily creates a perfect storm for attacks by the GOP. 

The derailment in Ohio has also led to some strange political bedfellows as Republicans are not the only ones criticizing the former South Bend, Ind., mayor. 

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee joined the chorus on Wednesday, hitting him for not reinstituting Obama-era safety regulations that were nixed during Trump’s presidency, saying that he has “done nothing in two years to reinstate them.” 

Some, however, have held off. When asked if Buttigieg shared any of the blame for the crash in East Palestine, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) told reporters, “Was he driving the train?”

Senate stares down immigration fight

Posted on (Updated by Al Weaver

A bipartisan group of senators attempting to craft an immigration compromise have an arduous task ahead of them: finding a deal that can attract the support of Democrats, moderate Republicans and the hard-line conservatives who have newfound power and influence in the House. 

Ten senators last week visited multiple spots along the border for an up-close look at the issues consuming the immigration system. President Biden also traveled to El Paso, Texas, the epicenter of what members on both sides of the aisle describe as a crisis. 

Despite that agreement, lawmakers must navigate the tricky contours of the politics of immigration — an issue that’s famously difficult to get agreement on while also serving as a key talking point in recent presidential elections.

That’s not deterring talks among those in the Senate, however.

"This is going to take months to potentially get to something that we could get the support in the House. We can't simply, because it’s politically difficult, say we can't touch it this Congress," Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), one of those that made the border trip, told The Hill. 

Tillis and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who was also among those at the border last week, made a last-minute attempt last year to win support for a narrow proposal that would have allocated tens of billions of dollars to border security and processing asylum requests while also handing "Dreamers" — those brought to the U.S. as children without authorization — a long-awaited path to citizenship.

But that push — which consisted of a framework and not a bill — was too little, too late.  

Tillis and Sinema’s attempt at bipartisan compromise may have been the last chance for the foreseeable future for Congress to take action, despite both parties in Congress and the White House acknowledging the problem. 

Any deal that could emerge from the Senate — meaning with the support of at least nine Senate Republicans — would likely earn resistance from far-right members of the GOP-controlled House.

“It's harder because the politics have gotten even harder for Republicans to get to ‘yes,’” said Alex Conant, who served as press secretary for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) during the “Gang of Eight” immigration fight in 2013. “You look at the political fallout for those involved in the 2013 deal, and how a lot of Republicans have been able to use immigration to win nominations since then, it's an issue that Republicans are very wary of getting on the wrong side of.”

Since the 2013 comprehensive immigration reform package failed, the politics of the topic has only hardened on the right and the voices have gotten louder. Adding to the troubles is that members are heading into a presidential election cycle and are hesitant to deliver any wins for Biden, especially on a topic that matters this much to the base. 

Many House Republicans made immigration a central issue and some are already talking about impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Texas) filed articles of impeachment against the secretary last week. 

And on Wednesday, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) sent a letter pressing Mayorkas for answers about border issues, writing that “administration cannot continue its erosion of the southern border and its mass-parole of migrants into our country.”

“It’s been a steep hill — steep and tall — for 40 years. That’s why nothing’s gotten done. So this is just a different dynamic,” said Tillis, who blamed the “talking heads” in part for scuttling his efforts with Sinema last year. “I don’t think it’s fair to blame this Congress. This Congress could be the first one since leisure suits were popular to do something on immigration.”

Tillis, who has become a key player in bipartisan negotiations on myriad topics in the past two years, said he is expected to discuss a path to passage of immigration reform with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and House Freedom Caucus members. 

Some political observers believe the impetus for a deal could be simple: The situation at the border now is worse than it was a decade ago as monthly encounters with migrants are near record highs.

One Senate GOP aide added that the road to a bipartisan, bicameral deal is “difficult but not impossible.” 

“Details will really matter, though,” the aide said. “At the very least, it’s good to finally see a substantive bipartisan acknowledgement that there’s actually a problem at the border.”

Legislation that passes muster with both chambers, however, would need to overcome another complicating factor in the House: McCarthy, as part of the deals he struck to become Speaker, empowered a far-right contingent of his party and handed them an easier procedural avenue to oust him, just as they did former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) in 2015 — two years after Boehner refused to bring the “Gang of Eight” bill to the floor for a vote. 

“I don't think it's this,” one conservative Senate aide told The Hill about McCarthy’s lack of willingness to complicate his standing as Speaker over a Senate-negotiated immigration bill. 

“What [former President Trump] showed was you can run on a pretty hard-line immigration stance and win on it,” the aide continued. “I don't think they get there without something Democrats can't stomach.”

For now, all eyes are on the Senate to see how it proceeds, though it all comes down to what McCarthy and House conservatives could accept.

“Now we have a gavel,” Tillis said. “And when you have a gavel, you have to govern.”