Hello, and happy early Independence Day to all who observe!

(And, of course, as an erudite consumer of this missive, I know you’ll observe in a responsible, socially-distanced way. Because Lockdown 2: The New Batch is going to suck enough as it is.)

As a lot of states whose Republican governors reopened businesses prematurely in the middle of a damn pandemic begin to grapple with the obvious and avoidable fallout, a lot of state-level action right now is extremely coronavirus-related.

… but not all of it.

Body Double: … but some of it!

Campaign Action

• In Pennsylvania, GOP Rep. (and noted Terrible Human) Daryl Metcalfe is coopting “my body, my choice” as a slogan to justify his reckless refusal to wear a face mask to help stop the spread of COVID-19.
  • Metcalfe has also introduced a resolution calling for the impeachment of Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, saying in a statement that Wolf’s businesses closures and other measures he’s taken to combat the spread of the coronavirus have “caused immeasurable harm an hardship for far more Pennsylvanians than the virus!”

I dunno, getting a deadly disease seems like a pretty severe hardship

• This is, obviously, just another time- and resource-wasting stunt from the same guy who gutted gerrymandering reform and has a long track record of being a hyper-partisan racist.
  • Meanwhile, remember that resolution the GOP-controlled legislature passed demanding that Gov. Wolf issue a proclamation overturning his own COVID-19 disaster declaration?
    • As predicted, Wolf ignored it,
    • The legislature didn’t give him the chance to veto it but claimed it had the force of law anyway, and
    • The whole matter ended up in court.
  • This week, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled that the measure was a “legal nullity” and left the governor’s emergency powers in place.
    • … which makes sense, since the state’s COVID-19 have been steadily decreasing because of Wolf’s efforts (though a slight uptick has followed the phased reopening of businesses).

Double or Nothing: In Kansas, where I’m sure the GOP-controlled legislature is contemplating a measured and reasonable response to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s new mandatory face mask order, one Republican lawmaker is super worried about losing his primary election in August.

• GOP Rep. Michael Capps, who is white, faces a Black primary opponent.
  • So a nervous Capps reached out to the state’s sole Black Republican legislator and asked him to pose for a picture with him, like, as a favor.
    • … but also in exchange for as much as $1,000 in campaign contributions.
• The lawmaker, Rep. Willie Dove, was quite understandably outraged at the proposal. 
  • For his part, Capps has resorted to racist tropes against his opponent, Patrick Penn, and has suggested that Penn is a Democratic plant because he’s Black.

Okay, this has all been interesting, but I did promise you non-coronavirus related content.

And, well, tomorrow is an important day.

No, not because it’s Independence Day Eve.

And not because it’s my half-birthday.

(Which it is.)

Election Day is four short months from July 3.

And this is a year that ends in zero.

Which makes this Election Day the final chance for Democrats to flip legislative chambers and put themselves in position in states across the country to prevent another decade of GOP gerrymandering.

Thousands of seats are on the ballot this fall.

And yes, all state legislative elections in each and every state are important.

But because redistricting is at stake, some are a bit more important than others this fall.

Democrats taking a birds-eye view of these elections (c’est moi) have to weigh a number of factors when it comes to prioritizing states, chambers, and seats this year.

• How many seats do Democrats need to flip to win a majority in the chamber?
• Do past election results, political trends, or other factors indicate that Democrats can flip that many seats in a single election?
• Was Democratic recruitment strong?
• Do legislators in that state impact redistricting (some states, like California, task independent commissions with drawing legislative and congressional maps)?

These are the chief factors I’ve weighed in determining my state legislative chamber priority target list for 2020.

Topmost among those targets are (in alphabetical order, nothing to read into here):

• Arizona House (Dems need to flip two for a majority)
• Arizona Senate (Dems need to flip three)
• Michigan House (Dems need to flip four)
• Minnesota Senate (flip two)
• North Carolina House (flip six)
• North Carolina Senate (flip five)
• Pennsylvania House (flip nine)
• Texas House (flip nine)
  • In Arizona, flipping either chamber would break the Republican trifecta. While legislative and congressional maps there are drawn by an independent redistricting commission, Republicans have spent the entire decade trying to undermine and dismantle the body; as long as the GOP has complete control of the state, fair redistricting is in real danger.
  • In Michigan, flipping the House would help stymie ongoing GOP efforts to dismantle or defang the independent redistricting commission the party’s been attacking since voters approved it in 2018.
  • In Minnesota, flipping the state Senate would give Democrats a governing trifecta (governorship, House, Senate) and complete control of the redistricting process.
  • Flipping at least one chamber in North Carolina is essential to preventing another GOP gerrymander of the state. The Democratic governor is generally favored to win reelection here, but it doesn’t matter—the legislature has complete control of legislative and congressional redistricting.
  • While Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is positioned to veto egregious partisan gerrymanders sent to him by the legislature, flipping a chamber in Pennsylvania would give him a redistricting partner, so to speak, which would send him a fair map to approve, levy against the GOP in negotiations, or be considered by the Democratic-majority state Supreme Court in litigation.
  • Flipping the Texas House would break the GOP trifecta in the state and give Democrats a say in the redistricting process for the first time since the infamous DeLay-mander of 2003.

Over the coming weeks, I’ll be going in to detail on each of these chambers—challenges, opportunities, available paths to victory, targeted districts, and the like. And I’ll be adding target chambers as the electoral landscape shifts and solidifies as we approach November.

• But let’s start with the relative layup of the bunch: Minnesota Senate.
  • As ever, much love to the beautiful brains at Daily Kos Elections who crunch the numbers that give us presidential and other statewide elections results broken down by legislative district.
    • And after this crunching, they’ve spit out multiple opportunities for Democrats to win that coveted trifecta this fall.
      • Republicans currently have a 35-32 majority in the Minnesota Senate.
      • In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried just 28 seats in the 67-seat chamber.
      • In the special U.S. Senate election in 2018, Democrat Tina Smith carried 39 out of 67 districts.
      • Democrat Tim Walz carried those same 39 seats, plus two more.
      • Sen. Amy Klobuchar annihilated her GOP opponent and carried a ridiculous 52 of the 67 Senate seats, but let’s look at the closer elections to map out the most viable targets in the fall.
        • Those targets can be found among the eight Smith/Waltz districts currently represented by Republicans.
  • It’s worth noting, though, that only two of those seats supported Clinton in 2016 (SDs 44 and 56).
    • … which, well, is fine, since Democrats only have to flip two for that sweet Senate majority and hot trifecta action.

Welp, that’s a wrap for this week. Thanks for checking in before checking out for the holiday!

Whatever you end up doing this weekend, I hope you enjoy the heck out of it.

You deserve it.

You’re worth it.

Hang in there.

And wear a mask.