Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) launched a bid on Monday to lead the Democrats’ messaging arm in the next Congress, ending his pursuit of the caucus chairmanship and clearing the way for Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) to fill that spot next year.
Neguse, who is currently one of four co-chairs of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC), is seeking to become the lone chairman of that panel next year — a new position the party is expected to create as part of the internal rules changes governing the 118th Congress.
The position was not his first choice.
Neguse, whose star rose last year when he was named to the team leading the second impeachment of then-President Trump, had initially sought to replace Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) as head of the House Democratic Caucus, announcing his candidacy for that spot shortly after the Nov. 8 midterms. At that time, it was well known that Aguilar was eyeing the No. 3 assistant leader position, behind Jeffries and Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), if there was a post-election shake-up at the highest tiers of the party — a shake-up that materialized last week when Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) announced they were stepping out of leadership after two decades.
But Neguse’s plan hit a wall when Rep. Jim Clyburn (S.C.), the Democratic whip, announced his intent to remain in leadership, launching a bid for the assistant leader spot. That surprise move led Aguilar to pursue the caucus chairman position — and forced Neguse to seek the DPCC seat.
The reshuffling of candidates was accompanied by an imminent restructuring of the party brass. The last time the Democrats were in the minority, the assistant leader was the No. 3 spot, and caucus chair was No. 4. Under the new order next year, those rankings will be flipped.
Pelosi all but solidified next year’s leadership team when she endorsed Jeffries, Clark and Aguilar for the top three spots. Neguse’s decision to seek the DPCC chair, and not challenge Aguilar for caucus chair, means that all of the top three candidates are so far running unopposed.
In a letter sent Monday to fellow Democrats, Neguse, 38, a four-term veteran and member of the Congressional Black Caucus, said he’ll bring his experience representing a sprawling district outside Denver to help the party better convey its message to voters.
“As a son of immigrants, the first Black Congressperson elected by the State of Colorado, and as someone who represents a large rural and suburban district, with agricultural communities extending all the way to the Wyoming border, I’ve long worked hard to effectively communicate to a broad constituency,” he wrote.
"I’ve adopted that same approach as a member of House Leadership,” he continued, “ensuring that voices from across our caucus and the ideological spectrum are elevated and included in our legislative agenda and messaging."
The Democrats’ leadership elections are scheduled for next week, when Congress returns to Washington from the Thanksgiving holiday.
About 28 percent of American voters questioned in a new poll say the incoming Republican majority in the House should investigate the potential impeachment of President Biden.
Just 6 percent of Democrats in the Morning Consult-Politico poll said focusing on the impeachment of Biden was a top priority for them, compared to 55 percent of Republicans.
Some Republicans have long promised to launch impeachment proceedings against Biden if the GOP won the majority in Congress after the midterm elections, including far-right lawmaker Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
Republicans did secure control of the House in the midterm elections, although with a narrower majority than some observers expected.
In a conference vote last week, the party voted to keep House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in the leadership post.
McCarthy, who still has to win votes on the floor when the next Congress assembles in January to become Speaker, has seemed less amenable to impeachment proceedings.
In an interview with CNN earlier this month, McCarthy promised he would never pursue impeachment proceedings for "political purposes," but said that "doesn't mean if something rises to the occasion it would not be used."
The GOP has also promised to launch a multitude of probes once it assumes the majority next year, including investigations into President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, and his business dealings.
About 28 percent of American voters say they back an investigation into Hunter Biden, according to the Morning Consult poll. About 7 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of Republicans say the next Congress should focus on investigating Hunter Biden.
President Biden has called the possible impeachment probes "almost comedy."
“I think the American public want us to move on and get things done for them,” he added.
The Morning Consult-Politico poll was conducted Nov. 10-14 among 1,983 registered voters. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.
Correction: An earlier version of this report misstated the vote count for Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calif.) nomination in 2019.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has a math problem.
He won the House GOP’s nomination to be Speaker this week in a 188-31 vote.
But far more GOP members voted against him than he can afford to lose on the floor Jan. 3 in a vote that would officially elect him Speaker. A vocal faction of Republicans who have the potential to make or break his Speakership continue to withhold support.
Recent 2022 election projections put Republicans on track to win up to 222 seats, a much slimmer majority than they were expecting before Election Day. Just a handful of Republican defectors could sink McCarthy.
“The hard thing for Kevin, realistically, is there are a fair number of people who have said very publicly they're ‘Never Kevin.’ Like, there's nothing that Kevin can do to get their vote,” said Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), who declined to share his own thinking on McCarthy.
Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), the former chair of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus who challenged McCarthy for the Speaker nomination, have outright pledged not to vote for McCarthy on the House floor.
But other critics of McCarthy aren’t going quite that far.
The questions are, how many skeptics can he sway to his side? What do they want in return? And, who could the alternative be?
McCarthy has projected confidence that he will win the votes he needs by January. He noted that former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) was nominated 200-43 in 2015 before winning 236 votes the next day on the floor, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was nominated 203-32 before winning 220 on the House floor in 2019. Both Pelosi and Ryan, however, had more substantial majorities.
“Look, we have our work cut out for us. We've got to have a small majority. We've got to listen to everybody in our conference,” McCarthy said in a press conference after clinching the closed-door nomination.
His supporters also note that some who voted against McCarthy via secret ballot will not want to be on the record publicly opposing him in January. But skeptics are pushing back.
“The Leader does not have 218 votes,” said Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), the current chair of the Freedom Caucus. “It is becoming increasingly perilous as we move forward.”
McCarthy does not necessarily need 218 floor votes to win the Speakership, however. It is a technical point that may affect his road to the gavel with such a narrow margin.
A House Speaker needs to win a majority of votes of those casting a ballot for a candidate. That means unforeseen circumstances on everything from the coronavirus pandemic to the weather can make the difference.
Pelosi won the Speakership last year with 216 votes, due to vacancies and absences. Former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) also won the Speakership with just 216 votes in 2015, when 25 members did not vote. Snowy weather kept some members away, and many Democrats were attending a funeral for the late New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D).
A Congressional Research Service report also notes that “present” votes also lower the final number needed to win, with current House practice dictating that the Speaker needs to win a majority “voting by surname.”
Some House Republicans, then, could opt to vote “present” rather than for either McCarthy or an alternative candidate without jeopardizing McCarthy’s path to the gavel.
But there is no guarantee that members opposed to McCarthy will give him that leeway. Gaetz has said he will vote for someone else in January.
The House Freedom Caucus over the summer released a list of rule change demands for both the House GOP Conference and the House as a whole that aim to reduce the power of leadership and distribute more of it to individual members.
“I refuse to elect the same people utilizing the same rules that keep us from – members like me from participating,” Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) said on former Trump adviser Stephen Bannon’s “War Room” show.
House Republicans began considering changes to their internal rules last week, and in a response to the push to decentralize power, McCarthy said after the meeting that the conference increased the number of representative regions from 13 to 19. The move affects the power in the House GOP steering committee, the body of members that control committee assignments and chairmanships.
“The regional maps we just did, pushing the power further down to more regions, more to the conference itself,” McCarthy said, which “dilutes the power greater to the members” on the steering committee.
The House GOP also passed an amendment from Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) that prohibits members of the House Republican Conference steering committee from sitting on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s executive committee — with an exception for elected members of the House GOP conference.
But other proposals from Freedom Caucus members were shot down, and some did not leave the session happy.
“I was disappointed about how the rules meeting was conducted,” Perry said, adding that other members and representatives-elect were “aghast at how that meeting was conducted and the product that came out of it.”
“Unless something changes, they should get used to that, because the tenor of that meeting was exactly what I've experienced throughout my time in Congress,” Perry added.
And for some members still withholding support from McCarthy, the rules are not the only factor in their decision.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said he wants commitments on a federal budget. Biggs has expressed disappointment that McCarthy will not commit to impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Others stress the need for strong leadership and vision without offering many specifics.
As the saying goes in politics, you can’t beat somebody with nobody, and those opposed to McCarthy lack a viable alternative.
Biggs imagines that by Jan. 3, there will be more of a consensus candidate, and that it might not be him.
“I can think of probably 20 people who nobody's mad at ever,” Biggs said, throwing out Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) as a suggestion. “I don't think people get mad at him too often.”
Johnson was reelected to be vice chair of the House GOP and has shown no interest in being an alternative Speaker candidate.
Some conservatives have suggested Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a founding Freedom Caucus member who challenged McCarthy for GOP Leader in 2018. But Jordan, who is likely to chair the House Judiciary Committee, has thrown his support behind McCarthy.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), once a doubter of McCarthy’s ability to become Speaker, has become one of his most vocal supporters for the post.
She has warned that moderate Republicans could join Democrats and elect a compromise moderate Speaker. McCarthy skeptics have dismissed that prospect as a “red herring.” McCarthy has also said he will not seek Democratic votes to be Speaker.
Greene said she would lobby her right-wing colleagues to support McCarthy, and on Friday, she said that the number of members not supporting McCarthy are “going down some, which is a good sign.”
“I really feel like our conference needs to be unified. We need to support Kevin McCarthy and we need to lead in such a way that we show the American people that the Republicans have their act together,” Greene said.
--Updated at 8:06 a.m.
Conservatives have made their demands known to Kevin McCarthy as he rounds up votes for speaker. Now centrists are next in line.
The unexpectedly small majority McCarthy will be working with next year as he seeks the top gavel has undoubtedly bolstered the leverage of his right flank. But the House Freedom Caucus’ vocal criticism is drowning out clear signals from some members of his more moderate wing: They say McCarthy should know that any deal with rebellious conservatives could face resistance from centrists who see themselves as the GOP’s “majority makers.”
“Kevin's not stupid,” said Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), who leads the centrist Republican Governance Group. “He's trying to add to his numbers, not destroy his base. And so I count on his political acumen to know what's acceptable to the rank and file inside the conference.”
Whether centrists are willing to withhold their speakership votes from McCarthy on Jan. 3, as some conservatives have indicated, remains to be seen. But it’s not just the more moderate Joyce-led group eyeing ways to have extra influence next year. Even as Washington’s attention after the midterm turns to the Freedom Caucus, members of the Main Street Caucus and the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus are talking among themselves about it.
Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), the Problem Solvers’ co-chiefs, met for dinner last week and talked about possible rules changes to help ensure their roughly 50 members next year are more unified, and therefore more powerful, on the floor next year. Among them: guidelines to endorse only bills that are bipartisan when introduced.
“We just want to make the group more accountable ... I mean, the whole point of our group is to stick together on the floor when we endorse bills,” Fitzpatrick said, adding that their ability to coalesce could be “important” given the tight margin.
Other factions in the House are already looking to form alliances with the centrist group. Fitzpatrick said he’s been hearing from Freedom Caucus members who want to find common ground with the moderate wing next year, as well as from Democratic senators who are looking for GOP allies in the lower chamber as they weigh their legislative priorities.
Republicans in the Main Street Caucus met last week as they grow their own ranks ahead of next year. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who co-leads the group, said they were nearing 90 members, adding that after years of the Freedom Caucus throwing its weight around: “It’s time we flex our muscles.”
The first real test of the power of the House GOP's different wings — and McCarthy’s support from them — will be the chamber-wide vote for speaker on Jan. 3. Virtually every Republican group is already looking to exhibit its leverage in a threadbare majority that gives McCarthy a cushion expected to be no larger than five votes. And in some cases, the GOP factions’ priorities will clash.
McCarthy’s speakership bid looked on shaky ground last week after 31 GOP members voted for his hardline conservative challenger in a closed-door conference election and five more put down write-in names. Not all of those Republicans are expected to oppose him come January, but it served as a warning to the GOP leader.
To many rank-and-file members, it was also an opportunity.
Since that secret ballot race, a trickle of lawmakers have publicly announced their plans to vote against the California Republican. Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a long-time “no” vote, and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) have stated emphatically they won’t support McCarthy for speaker; first-term Reps. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) and Bob Good (R-Va.) have strongly signaled that they are likely to oppose him.
“The stages of grief include denial, so there will be some denial, and then there will be the stage of bargaining. And that’s where we’ll probably be next,” said Biggs, who challenged McCarthy for the nomination.
While several House races remain uncalled, McCarthy likely couldn’t afford to lose all four of those votes on the floor — which means he either has to twist arms, make concessions or both to line up the support he needs come January.
And there’s a big question mark when it comes to how far he’ll go to attain his dreams of the speakership. Some say McCarthy would stand his ground and refuse any hard-line bargains, but there’s rampant speculation that his desperation to win the floor vote could drive him to acquiesce to deals that would be difficult for future GOP leaders to pull back.
Still, other Republicans shrugged off the maneuvering as a necessary exercise, saying they’d continue helping him reach 218. Even if McCarthy does make an unpopular concession, rank-and-file Republicans could still vote it down on the floor, these allies argue.
“We're not going to be voting for any crazy policies, so he can make all the commitments he wants,” said one House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
McCarthy’s already avoided one landmine, squashing talk from the Freedom Caucus about making it easier to depose a speaker. Instead, he got the conference to agree that a motion to vacate the chair — how conservatives pushed out then-Speaker John Boehner — would require the support of a majority of House Republicans.
But January’s high-stakes vote will be tougher, with McCarthy needing a majority of votes among all House members, not just his own conference. With just a few votes to spare, he’ll likely have to borrow tactics from previous leaders, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi: Convincing his defectors to vote “present” or not show up at all.
Even some Democrats are plotting how to get in on the action.
A group of centrist Democrats has been privately discussing ways to play in the speaker race if it can mean winning concessions of their own, including potential leeway on rule changes and committee structures, according to a half-dozen people familiar with the conversations.
One Democrat familiar with the conversations described the idea as more of a “back-up” plan in case McCarthy can’t reach the votes on his own, rather than an active push to interfere with the race. Still, some Democrats have discussed what they could get in exchange for cooperating with the GOP leader — or even floating their own moderate speaker candidate if McCarthy loses too much ground.
Furthermore, they’ve discussed working with their Republican centrist counterparts.
The pro-McCarthy Bacon told POLITICO that Democrats had reached out to him after NBC reported that he was open to working with them if Republicans couldn’t unite behind a candidate. (Bacon said the report mischaracterized his remarks and predicted McCarthy will get to 218 votes.)
Bacon declined to describe his response to the outreach, while acknowledging that “we’re talking,” but the “ball is in the other guy’s court.”
The idea of Democrats working with centrist Republicans to try to elect a speaker has sparked warnings from the GOP conference’s right flank, including those backing McCarthy.
“We have a very slim majority, and so this is why it’s so important for us to stay unified … because we cannot open the door to the Democrats peeling off several of our Republicans and working together to choose a speaker,” said Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who’s become a key Freedom Caucus ally for the GOP leader.
McCarthy has also privately and publicly dismissed that he would solicit Democratic votes for speaker.
“We’re the majority as Republicans and we’ll get there as Republicans,” McCarthy told reporters after the Tuesday leadership elections.